Sensitivities of Power-to-Gas within an
Optimised Energy System
100% RE with PtG
IRES, 2015
Editha Kötter,
Ludwig Schneider, Dr. Frank Sehnke,
Kay Ohnmeiß, Dr. Ramona Schröer
Düsseldorf, 10.03.2015
Project partner:
Motivation
Selection of PtG implementation
Projects with start date
Efficiencies
2009
2011/13
2012 2011
2011
2012
2010
2012
2011
2011
Electricity  Hydrogen = ~75%
Hydrogen  Methane = ~80%
Methane  Electricity = ~40%
Electricity
2012
2012
2013
2012/13
2012
2
IRES 2015: Sensitivities of PtG in an Optimised Energy System „100% RE with PtG“
Editha Kötter ► [email protected]
24%
Electricity
Motivation
Selection of PtG implementation
Projects with start date
Power to Gas (PtG)
24%
Electricity
2009
2011/13
2012 2011
2011
2012
2012 ~220 TWhTH
storage capacity ! 2010
2011
2011
2012
2012
2013
Li-ion – Batteries
85%
Electricity
Electricity
Power to Heat (PtH)
98%
Electricity
2012/13
2012
?
3
Electricity
IRES 2015: Sensitivities of PtG in an Optimised Energy System „100% RE with PtG“
Editha Kötter ► [email protected]
Heat
Motivation
Selection of PtG implementation
Projects with start date
2009
2011/13
2012 2011
2011
2012
2010
2012
2011
2011
Power to Gas (PtG)
Electricity
24%
Electricity
Li-ion – Batteries
Electricity
85%
Electricity
Power to Heat (PtH)
Electricity
2012
2012
2013
98%
Heat
2012/13
Research
Approach: What is the most economic storage solution?
2012- At 100% RE supply
- In future scenarios
- In an existing region
4
IRES 2015: Sensitivities of PtG in an Optimised Energy System „100% RE with PtG“
Editha Kötter ► [email protected]
Agenda
• Methods: model region and model
• Results
• Optimised Scenario (Base)
• Variation of CAPEX
• Technology and supply
• Conclusion
5
IRES 2015: Sensitivities of PtG in an Optimised Energy System „100% RE with PtG“
Editha Kötter ► [email protected]
Model Region: Trier Amprion 5
Manderscheid
Speicher
Zell
Neuerburg
Wittlich
Bitburg
Wittlich
Bitburg
Model region corresponds to the
existing electricity grid Amprion 5
Kirchberg
Bernkastel
Irrel
National border
Model region
Def. subregion
Schweich
Thalfang
Trier
Trier-Konz
River
Major city
Morbach
Ruwer
Hermeskeil
Berlin
Kell
Saarburg
Geographical size: 1% of GER
Rural area;
Biggest city Trier ~100,000 inhabitants
6
IRES 2015: Sensitivities of PtG in an Optimised Energy System „100% RE with PtG“
Editha Kötter ► [email protected]
model
region
model
region
Model Region: Power Supply
(P inst./ potential)
PV (259 MW/13,500 MW)
Wind (494 MW/2,300 MW)
Hydropower (142 MW/142 MW)
Biogas (33 MW/31 MW)
Berlin
model region
El. Demand:
2.9 TWh/a
RE share (2013): ~60%
7
IRES 2015: Sensitivities of PtG in an Optimised Energy System „100% RE with PtG“
Editha Kötter ► [email protected]
Model Region: CO2 Sources
Biogas
Landfill gas
Sewage gas
Biogas, CO2 (total, today):
104 kt/a
Berlin
model region
8
IRES 2015: Sensitivities of PtG in an Optimised Energy System „100% RE with PtG“
Editha Kötter ► [email protected]
Optimisation Model - Structure
Electricity
Gas
Wind
CHP
PV
Hydro
Biogas
Storage &
Separator
Gas Grid
Electricity Demand
9
IRES 2015: Sensitivities of PtG in an Optimised Energy System „100% RE with PtG“
Editha Kötter ► [email protected]
Optimisation Model - Structure
Electricity
Gas
Wind
• PtG incl. methanation
• PtG incl. CO2 sources
CHP
PV
Hydro
Biogas
Storage &
Separator
Electrolyser
Gas Grid
Storage
Methanation
Electricity Demand
10
IRES 2015: Sensitivities of PtG in an Optimised Energy System „100% RE with PtG“
Editha Kötter ► [email protected]
Optimisation Model - Structure
Electricity
Gas
Wind
• PtG incl. methanation
• PtG incl. CO2 sources
CHP
• PHS & Li-Ion
PV
Hydro
Biogas
Storage &
Separator
Gas Grid
Storage
PHS
Li-ion
Electrolyser
Methanation
Electricity Demand
11
IRES 2015: Sensitivities of PtG in an Optimised Energy System „100% RE with PtG“
Editha Kötter ► [email protected]
Optimisation Model - Structure
Electricity
Gas
Wind
• PtG incl. methanation
• PtG incl. CO2 sources
CHP
PV
• PHS & Li-Ion
• PtH
PtH
Hydro
Biogas
Storage &
Separator
Gas Grid
Storage
PHS
Li-Ion
Li-ion
Electrolyser
Methanation
Electricity Demand
12
IRES 2015: Sensitivities of PtG in an Optimised Energy System „100% RE with PtG“
Editha Kötter ► [email protected]
Optimisation Model - Structure
Electricity
Gas
Wind
Heat
CHP
PV
• PHS & Li-Ion
• PtH incl. heat demand
PtH
Hydro
Biogas
Storage &
Separator
Gas Grid
Storage
PHS
Li-ion
Electrolyser
Electricity Demand
13
• PtG incl. methanation
• PtG incl. CO2 sources
Methanation
Heat Demand
IRES 2015: Sensitivities of PtG in an Optimised Energy System „100% RE with PtG“
Editha Kötter ► [email protected]
Optimisation Model - Approach
• PtG incl. methanation
• PtG incl. CO2 sources
Energy [GWhel]
• PHS & Li-Ion
• PtH incl. heat demand
14
1,4
1,2
1,0
0,8
0,6
0,4
0,2
0,0
Mo
Mon
Di
Tue
Mi
Wed
Do
Thu
Fr
Fri
Sa
Sat
So
Sun
IRES 2015: Sensitivities of PtG in an Optimised Energy System „100% RE with PtG“
Editha Kötter ► [email protected]
• Step size: 15 min
• Reference years: 2
 weather data
• Optimisation parameter:
Installed capacities
• Optimisation target:
minimal LCOE
• Optimisation:
• Non-Linear Solver
• Merit order
• Reinforcement learning
(RL)
Optimisation Model - Approach
Electricity
Gas
Heat
• Optimisation parameter:
Installed capacities
Wind
CHP
PV
• Optimisation target:
minimal LCOE
PtH
Hydro
Biogas
Storage &
Separator
Gas Grid
Storage
PHS
Li-ion
Electrolyser
Electricity Demand
15
Methanation
Heat Demand
IRES 2015: Sensitivities of PtG in an Optimised Energy System „100% RE with PtG“
Editha Kötter ► [email protected]
Assumptions (Future Scenario)
(Weak) Wind Power:
(High) Wind Power:
PV Rooftop:
PV Ground-Mounted:
Hydropower:
Biogas:
CHP:
PtG:
Li-ion:
PHS:
PtH:
16
1,600 €/kW
1,000 €/kW
875 €/kW
700 €/kW
2,700 €/kW
1,350 €/kW
900
900
350
160
100
€/kW
€/kW
€/kW
€/kW
€/kW
IRES 2015: Sensitivities of PtG in an Optimised Energy System „100% RE with PtG“
Editha Kötter ► [email protected]
Eff.:40%
Eff.:60%
Eff.:85%
Eff.:81%
Eff.:98%
Results – Optimised Scenario: Base
Combination
Base assumptions with 80% RE
LCOE: 9.3 ct/kWh
PtG inst.: 0 MW
Base assumptions with 100% RE
LCOE: 11.0 ct/kWh
PtG inst.: 218 MW
17
IRES 2015: Sensitivities of PtG in an Optimised Energy System „100% RE with PtG“
Editha Kötter ► [email protected]
Results – Optimised Scenario: Base
Combination
15
Base assumptions with 80% RE
LCOE: 9.3 ct/kWh
PtG inst.: 0 MW
c
14
Base assumptions with 100% RE
LCOE: 11.0 ct/kWh
PtG inst.: 218 MW
LCOE in ct/kWhEL
13
12
Base Scenario
11
LCOE ~11 ct/kWhEL
PtG ~218 MWEL
10
0
100
200
300
400
500
Installed PtG-capacity in MWEL
18
IRES 2015: Sensitivities of PtG in an Optimised Energy System „100% RE with PtG“
Editha Kötter ► [email protected]
Results – Optimised Scenario: Base
5
Combination
15
PHS
Li-ion
4
LCOE in ct/kWhEL
13
12
Base Scenario
11
El. Production:
4.6 TWhEL/a
10
0
100
200
300
Installed PtG-capacity in MWEL
400
PtG
Energy in TWhEL/a
c
Electricity demand
of model region
14
Biogas
3
Wind
PV
2
1
500
El. Demand:
2.9 TWhEL/a
0
19
IRES 2015: Sensitivities of PtG in an Optimised Energy System „100% RE with PtG“
Editha Kötter ► [email protected]
Hydro
Results – Optimised Scenario: Base
5
Combination
15
PHS
Li-ion
4
14
12
2
10
0
100
200
300
Installed PtG-capacity in MWEL
400
500
Excess
Energy in TWhEL/a
Base Scenario
11
Energy in TWhEL/a
Electricity demand
of model region
c
LCOE in ct/kWhEL
13
20
PtG
Biogas
3
Wind
PV
2
PHS
Li-ion
1
0
IRES 2015: Sensitivities of PtG in an Optimised Energy System „100% RE with PtG“
Editha Kötter ► [email protected]
Hydro
1
PtG
PtH
Curtailment
0
Results – Variation of PtG-CAPEX
PHS
PtG
Curtailment
Combination
15
Li-ion
PtH
2
c
Energy in TWhEL/a
14
LCOE in ct/kWhEL
13
12
PtG-1800 €/kW
1
Base Scenario:
PtG-900 €/kW
PtG-600 €/kW
11
0
10
0
100
200
300
Installed PtG-capacity in MWEL
21
400
500
2 * Inv. costs PtG =
~ slight changes in the energy mix
IRES 2015: Sensitivities of PtG in an Optimised Energy System „100% RE with PtG“
Editha Kötter ► [email protected]
Results – Variation of PtG-CAPEX
PHS
PtG
Curtailment
Combination
15
Li-ion
PtH
2
c
Energy in TWhEL/a
14
LCOE in ct/kWhEL
13
PtG-2500 €/kW
12
PtG-1800 €/kW
1
Base Scenario:
PtG-900 €/kW
PtG-600 €/kW
11
0
10
0
100
200
300
Installed PtG-capacity in MWEL
22
400
500
At 2.500 €/kW batteries are competitive
to Li-ion at a CAPEX of 350 €/kWh
IRES 2015: Sensitivities of PtG in an Optimised Energy System „100% RE with PtG“
Editha Kötter ► [email protected]
Results – Variation of PtG-CAPEX
PHS
PtG
Curtailment
Combination
15
Li-ion
PtH
2
c
Energy in TWhEL/a
14
LCOE in ct/kWhEL
13
No-PtG PtG-2500 €/kW
12
PtG-1800 €/kW
1
Base Scenario:
PtG-900 €/kW
PtG-600 €/kW
11
0
10
0
100
200
300
Installed PtG-capacity in MWEL
23
400
500
No-PtG: System without PtG
• Higher LCOE
• Higher need for regulation
IRES 2015: Sensitivities of PtG in an Optimised Energy System „100% RE with PtG“
Editha Kötter ► [email protected]
Sensitivities: Technology and Supply
6
Combination
15
5
PHS
Energy in TWhEL/a
c
14
LCOE in ct/kWhEL
13
High-Wind
12
Low-Hydro
4
Li-ion
PtG
3
Biogas
2
Hydro
Base Scenario
11
1
Wind
PV
10
0
100
200
300
400
500
0
Installed PtG-capacity in MWEL
24
IRES 2015: Sensitivities of PtG in an Optimised Energy System „100% RE with PtG“
Editha Kötter ► [email protected]
Results: Technology and Supply
Combination
15
5
PHS
Energy in TWhEL/a
c
14
13
LCOE in ct/kWhEL
No-Heat
High-Wind
12
Low-Hydro
4
Li-ion
PtG
3
Biogas
2
Hydro
Base Scenario
11
1
Wind
PV
10
0
0
100
200
300
400
500
Installed PtG-capacity in MWEL
25
IRES 2015: Sensitivities of PtG in an Optimised Energy System „100% RE with PtG“
Editha Kötter ► [email protected]
Results: Combination of the influences
Combination
15
c
14
Scenario closer to German state of
the art:
13
LCOE in ct/kWhEL
No-Heat
cHigh-Wind
12
Significantly higher need of storage!
Low-Hydro
Base Scenario
11
10
0
100
200
300
400
500
Installed PtG-capacity in MWEL
26
IRES 2015: Sensitivities of PtG in an Optimised Energy System „100% RE with PtG“
Editha Kötter ► [email protected]
Results: Combination of the influences
Combination
15
106 GW
c
14
13
LCOE in ct/kWhEL
No-Heat
PHS inst. today:
~ 7 GW
High-Wind
12
Low-Hydro
Base Scenario
11
46 GW
10
0
100
200
300
400
500
Installed PtG-capacity in MWEL
27
IRES 2015: Sensitivities of PtG in an Optimised Energy System „100% RE with PtG“
Editha Kötter ► [email protected]
Conclusion
A 100% RE energy supply is possible without PtG, but …
PtG is a key technology for a cost efficient energy supply
PtG will be needed at ~80% RE share
28
IRES 2015: Sensitivities of PtG in an Optimised Energy System „100% RE with PtG“
Editha Kötter ► [email protected]
Thank you!
29
IRES 2015: Sensitivities of PtG in an Optimised Energy System „100% RE with PtG“
Editha Kötter ► [email protected]
Kurzporträt RLI
Zielsetzung des RLI: Anwendungsnahe Forschung zur optimalen Integration
Erneuerbarer Energien in unser Energiesystem
Thematische Schwerpunkte am RLI
Mobilität und Erneuerbare Energien
Optimierte Energiesysteme
Technologie Erneuerbarer Energiesysteme
Off-Grid Inselsysteme
Querschnittsthema
• Konzeption und Begleitung von Transformationsprozessen
30
IRES 2015: Sensitivities of PtG in an Optimised Energy System „100% RE with PtG“
Editha Kötter ► [email protected]