StrongerwithEU-aEuropeclosertothecitizens
Copenhagen25/01/2017
1.
Therapidsuccessionofcrisesofallkinds–“themultiplecrisis,thepolycrisis”–hasprovokedadeep
shock,leavingwoundsthatarenotyethealed.SomecrisescamefromoutsidetheUnion(banks,
refugees,terrorism),somecamefromwithin(eurozone,economy,Brexit).Trustwasbrokenoron
thevergeofbeingbrokeninpillarsofoursocieties:banksandthecurrency.Incomes,jobsand
savingswerethreatened.Ittakestimebeforetrustisrestored.
Trustisnotcomingbackevenafterobtaining“results”:weovercamethecrisesoftheeurozone,we
stoppedthemassiveinfluxofrefugees,5millionjobswerecreated,etc.
Whateverthesourceofcrisis,citizensareaskingforsolutionsfromournationalandEuropean
authorities.
Butthecrisisismuchdeeper.Itisaboutoursocio-economicmodel,atanational,Europeanand
globallevel.Whenpeoplebecomeafraidof“space”,ontheglobalandEuropeanlevel,itshowsthey
arelongingfora“place”thatprotectsthem,onewheretheyfeel“ateaseandathome”.
IntheBrexit-referendum,mostlyolderpeoplewantedtheir“home”back—thenostalgiaof“the
goodolddays”.YoungpeoplevotedoverwhelminglyforRemain,knowingthattheoldworldwould
notreturn.Thefirstgrouparethe-accordingtoThomasFriedman-“wall”people,readytobuild
walls in order to prevent others from coming in. The others are “web” people, embracing
globalisationwithitspro’sanditscons.
ThisrepresentsafundamentalandinevitablechoicealsoinEuropeandintheStates.Atthesame
time,wehavetofindawaytoalleviatethetension,tobridgethedistancebetweenspaceandplace,
betweenwebandwall.Weneedtoaddresstheworriesofouryoungerandoldercitizens,bygiving
them better protection in many respects, correcting the market economy by tackling
unemployment,irregularmigration,climatechange,hugeinequalitiesandunfaircompetition,and
by providing physical security. We need a new version of the social market economy at the
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Europeanandevenatthegloballevel.Weneedanewsocialcontract,anewconsensus.Onlythis
waywecanturnfearintohopeandliberatepeoplefromthefeelingofpowerlessness.Weneed
moresocialharmonyandlesspolarisation.Moremoderationandlessaggressiveness.This,Irepeat,
attheEuropeanandatthegloballevel.Weneedcountervailingpowerstocorrectthebrutalforces
ofthemarkets–thefinancialcrisiswasawarningshot.Muchisatstake,butitisstilldoable.
2.
Iwanttospeaknowontheeconomy.InthesoutherncountriesofourUnionitisthemaindriver
forpopulism.
Inthisclimateofuncertainty,governmentsarestillstrugglingwithmassiveprivateandpublicdebt.
Weakgovernmentsdon’tfindenoughpopularsupportforfurtherdrasticreductionsinpublicdebt
anddeficits.Notaftersomanyeffortsinrecentyears.Economically,itmakessensetoslowdown
thepaceoffiscalconsolidation(a.k.a.austerity)withoutgivingupthestructuraldirectionoffurther
lowerdeficits.Actually,thiscautiousapproachisnowthepolicyoftheEuropeanCommission,and
Iconsiderthiswisebehaviour.
LetusnotforgetthatpopulismofboththepoliticalrightandlefthasadifferentcauseintheNorth
andtheSouthofEurope.IntheNorthitismainlyaboutmigration.IntheSouth,itisaboutausterity,
povertyandunemployment.
Growth depends to a large extent on investments, public as well as private. Investment fuels
demandandstrengthenssupply.Neverwasthecostofborrowingsolowineconomichistory,due
totheveryaccommodativemonetarypolicyoftheECB.Inordertoboostinvestment,theEuropean
CommissionlauncheditsJunckerPlanpromotingmoredaringactivity.Theaimisaprivateand
public investment volume of 500 billion euros (or 3% of the European GDP) by 2020. The
programmeiswelloncourse.Itisrecentlyextended.Webadlyneedmoreinvestment,evenin
Germany.ChinaisoverinvestingandtheEUunderinvesting.Bothevolutionshavetobecorrected.
Otherwise,itwillbedifficulttoavoidsecularstagnation,eventhoughwearestillgrowingagainat
1.5%annually.Letusalsonotforgetthattheageingofthepopulationwillhampergrowthinthe
longterm,becauseolderpeoplearemoreriskaverseandlesscreative.
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ThesamedemographicchallengeisverywellknowninJapan,ChinaandRussia.Europeisinabetter
positionbecausewewillremainanareaofmigration.Wehaveto!
We must, of course, improve the business climate in each of our Member States, not only by
loweringtaxesbutalsobyprovidingmoreventurecapital,byspendingmoreininnovationandR&D,
bydeepeningoursinglemarketviaanEnergyUnionandaDigitalUnion.Inmanydomains,the
Unionistakinginitiativestomakeupforourdelayvis-à-visourcompetitors.
Investorshateinstability.Itisneedlesstorepeathowunstableourworldis.Allthemore,therefore,
wehavetoputourenergyininvestments.
Themigrationagendaisovershadowingnowtheeconomicchallenges.Itisahugemistaketoallow
oureconomytoslipfromtheagenda.
3.
DuringmytimeinofficeasPECIhadtomanagethecrisisintheeurozone.Thecreationoftheeuro
wasagamechangerinthehistoryoftheUnion.ItchangedprofoundlytheimageoftheEUinpublic
opinion.
Bothcreditorsanddebtorcountrieswereunhappy.Fortheformertheyhadhadtobetoosolidary,
whilefortheotherstheywereobligedby“Brussels”tobetoo“responsible”,toosevere.
 
InancienttimesaPrincehadtwokeycompetences:therighttowagewarandtherighttocoin.The
TreatyofMaastrichtcreatedtheopportunitytoconveythiscrucialinstrumentofmonetarypolicy
tosupranationalinstitutions.
 
Itwasnotachoiceofmonetarypolicy.ItwasachoiceforanotherkindofEurope.Itwasapolitical
choice“perexcellence”.I’mnotsurethatalltheleadersrealizedthatthiswasthebeginningofa
processoftransferringsovereignty.Youcan’thaveacommoncurrencywithoutaBankingUnion,
anEconomicUnionandaFiscalUnion.Wearestillatthestageofdrawingalltheconclusionsofthis
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essential step: abandoning national currencies. No progress was made since 2014. It is not an
ideologicaldiscussionbetweenfederalistsandinter-governmentalists.Itisjustfearingtotakethe
unavoidabledecisions,implyingmoresolidarityandmoreintegration.Unfortunatelywetaketoo
oftenthosekindsofdecisionsinacrisisinfrontoftheabyss,a“cliffedge”situation,asitisnow
calledintheBrexit-debate.
 
Welackthenecessarytoolstofaceanotherunknowncrisis.Weallarefullyawareofthis,but
knowingthegoodisnotthesameasdoingtherightthing.Knowledgeandactionareseparatedas
Socratestaughtus!
 
The current biggest threat to the eurozone is not economic but political, going from political
instabilityandpartyfragmentationtothegrowinginfluenceofpopulismandpopulistparties.It
creates either weak governments not capable of reforms and courageous measures, or parties
whosegoalistodotheoppositeofwhatisneeded.Theeurozonerequestsconvergenceofpolicies.
Divergencesundermineamonetaryunion.Populismwouldcreatethosedivergences.
Amemberoftheeurozonecannotleaveitwithoutaveryhighprice.That’swhytheUKcanleave
theEUmore“easily”thanaeurozonecountry.
Theeurowasandisagreatpoliticalproject,unifyingthecontinentinthelongertermmorethan
thesinglemarket.Butatthesametimeitscrisisbetween2010and2013hasmadetheEuropean
idea less attractive. The single market was a win-win operation. On the other hand, the single
currencybroughttheEuropeanideaviathewalletintopeople’sdailylives,butinanegativeway
duetothecrisisintheeuroarea.Thesinglecurrencycreatedwinnersandlosers.
 
Weneedtorestorecohesion,butnottheartificialcohesionbasedonhugepublicandprivatedebts
as in the period before the banking crisis. Debts have masked imbalances and uneven
developments inside the euro area. Debts have created artificial and unsustainable economic
growth.
Wemadeprogressduringthelastyearsintermsofconvergenceinfieldssuchasinflation,balance
ofpayments,publicdeficitsandevenongrowthandjobs.ManyintheAngloSaxonworldpredicted
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theendoftheeurozone,evenspeakingabouttheItalianreferendum.Idon’tbelongtotheclubof
thosewhofeartheimplosionoftheeurozoneandtheUnion.Brexitandthechaositproducesis
notanincentivetoprovokeotherexits.TheconfidenceinEU-membershipincreaseddramatically
afterJune23.TheproblemsoftheUKhaveyettostart!
4.
Iwanttosayafewwordsonmigration,themaindriverofpopulisminWesternEuropeancountries
sincemorethan24years.
Identityproblemsareevenfeltmoredeeplythansocio-economicproblems.Themassiveinfluxof
refugeesin2015createdtheperceptionthatwewereonthebrinkoflivinginanothersocietythan
wewereusedtolive.Our'place'wasthreatened.Theprospectofmillionsofrefugeestocome
provokedstrongemotionsandafeelingoffearandanxiety.
Whatisthemodelforoursocietiesofthefuture?
Oursocietiesmustbebasedon'onecivilizationandmanycultures',betweenwhatbindsusand
what makes us different. A civilization means: political democracy, the rule of law, nondiscrimination,equalitybetweenmenandwomen,theseparationbetweenreligionandthestate
andfundamentalliberties.Aroundthesesharedvalues,severalcultures,religionsandconvictions
cangravitate.Theymustdialogueandmeettogether.Truedialoguerequiresrespect,listening,
compromiseandmoderation.Butdialogueisnotcalledforthoseintolerantvoiceswhooppose
civilization.Barbariansmustbefoughtagainst.
Butwehavetoupholdourvaluesourselves.Inaclimateoffearsomepeoplearetemptedtoprefer
securityaboveliberty.Thesupportforpoliticaldemocracy,theruleoflaw,theindependencyofthe
judiciary is actually decreasing, because they cannot deliver sufficient security and prosperity
accordingtotheperceptionofsomepeople.
Democracyisnotperceivedanymoreasavalueinitself.Democratieshaveto“deliver”onthe
“protecting”agenda.
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TheSchengenzonewasdesignedfornormaltimes–aswastheeurozone,notforthemassiveinflux
oflastyear,thebiggestmovementofnon-EUpeoplesincecenturies.Thetwokeyvaluesofour
Union: sovereignty and solidarity came under pressure. Only after months an agreement was
reachedwithTurkeyinordertostoptheimmigrationcomingfromthewarzones.Solidarityisstill
faraway.TherefugeecrisisdividedtheUnionprofoundly.Moretheeurozonecrisis,althoughsome
countriesdon'tbelongtothetwoclubs.
Weovercomebothexistentialcrisis.Ittooktime.Agreeingwith28wasachallengebutwedid.
Europewasinthemidstofthestorm.Itsimagewastarnishedandtrustdeclineddramatically.Even
iftheEUasawholeinthosecaseswasthesumofthementalitiesintheMemberStates.Thisway
ofdecisionmakingisjustunsustainable.Weneedmuchmore'European'solutions.
5.
MigrationwasthedefiningissueintheBrexitreferendumandintheAmericanelections.
TheAmericanpresidentialelectionsdealtwiththesameproblemsasweareusedtoinEurope:
migration,terrorism,insecurity,globalisation,oppositiontotheso-calledelites.Thisshowsthatour
rootproblemsarenotonlyrelatedtotheEUortothenationaldemocracies.ItisaWesternwide
challenge.Ourgrowinginwardlookingbehaviourpreventsusfromseeingthisbroaderpicture.A
lackofself-confidenceishamperinglucidityonourownsituationinEurope.
 
Daybydayitbecomesclearwhatthebigchallengefortheupcomingyearsanddecadesreallyis.
Howtokeepoursocieties,democraciesandeconomiesopenandatthesametimehowtobetter
protectpeopleagainsttheexcessesofthisopenness?Howtobetterprotectpeopleagainstfinancial
instability;unemployment;unsecurejobs;irregularmigration;climatechange;social,commercial
andfiscaldumping;hugeinequalities;etc.?Weneedanewbalancebetweenfreedom,fairnessand
protection.
 
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The simple truth is that we cannot provide results in these domains without more European
cooperationandintegration.Itisa“Europeofnecessary!”Itisnotanideologicalchoice.Actuallyit
isnotachoiceatall.Itisanunavoidableconsequenceofpreviouschoices.
 
OfcoursethisEuropewillrequestmoretransferofsovereigntyandmoresolidarity.Butinfactwe
arenotsovereignanymoreonmigration,terrorism,dumping,etc.MoreEuropeancooperationand
integrationwillgiveusmore“control”overourdestiny(usingaBrexitidiom).Itremindsmethatby
givingupBelgianmonetarysovereignty(BelgianFranc),wewoncontrolback.Ournationalcurrency
wastotallydependentontheDeutscheMark.TheeurogaveusaseatintheECB,asayinEuropean
monetarypolicy.
 
Wewerefortoolonginasurvivalmode.Firstwiththeeurozone,andlaterwiththeSchengenzone.
WedecidedonlongertermreformsbutitistimetohaveamorestrategicviewontheEU.The
European Council and the Commission launched ideas already in 2014, but after the Brexit
referendumandtheAmericanelectionsitistimetoact.The27have“commonenemies”.Wehave
toseizetheopportunitybecausebotheventscreateavacuumwhichtheUnioncanfill.Astrategic
planwaitsforanopportunitytogetitimplemented.Thelessthetimeisripe,themorewehaveto
dotomakeitripe.Whatisthemenuforthisstrategicagenda?
 
AreallynewchapterformoreEuropeancooperationisthemilitaryone.TheRussianthreatand
America’s reluctance to have as much solidarity as in the past is giving a push to the military
dimensionoftheUnion.
 
TheUnioncannotbecomeatrulyregionalandglobalactorwithoutarelevantmilitarydimension.
 
We have to go on with the free trade agreement. “Free and fair” trade. The “America first”
philosophyisactuallyonefoldingbackonitself.Bytheway,thesumofallthose“Mycountryfirst”slogan’sisadisaster.Itiscontradictorywiththeotherslogan“MakeAmericagreatagain”.The
droppingoftheTPPinAsia(Americafirst)meansaconsiderablelossofinfluenceoftheUS(Not
makingAmericagreat)intheFarEast.ThewinnerisChina?WhichtheUSistackling.TheUnion
must conclude the negotiations with Japan next year. The agreement with Vietnam is already
finalised.WehavetogoonwiththetalkswithIndonesia.KoreaandSingaporearealreadystrong
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tradingpartners.ButalsoinSouthAmericawehaveagreementsinthepipeline,namelywithBrazil
andArgentina–afterourtradedealswithPeru,EcuadorandColombia.WesignettheCETAwith
Canada.
 
TheUnionhastoremainopenbecauseitisasourceofgrowth,jobsandinfluenceintheworld.
IfearthattheprotectionistcourseofthenewAmericanadministrationwilljeopardisetheTTIPagreement.Ithadthepotentialtobethebiggesttradeandinvestmentagreementever,setting
standardsfortheotherhalfoftheworldeconomy.Buthopeisaverb.Optimismisamoralduty.
 
Ourinternaltrade,oursinglemarket,hasalsogottobestrengthened.Freemovementofgoods,
services,capitalandpeopleisnotenough.Wehavetoaddachapteron“industrialpolicy”,on
micro-economicpolicy,creatinganEnergyandDigitalUnion.Ourmarketistoofragmentedandtoo
dependentrespectivelyonRussiaandonafewAmericancompanies.Wemadeprogressduringthe
lastyears,butstartingwithahugelag.Competitivenessremainskey.
ConsolidationatthelevelofenterprisesisinevitableonaEuropeanscale.Thetimeof“national
champions”shouldbeover.Unfortunatelywenoticetheseoldfashionedreactionseveryday.In
thefinancialsectorwealsoneedconsolidationinordertoremaincompetitivevis-à-visAmerican
andChinesecompetitors.
Inourstrategicagendawehavetopromotejobsandgrowth,butIdrawanotherlessonfromBrexit
andtheAmericanelectionsisaboutjobs.Wehavetoreflectonthesimplefactthattwocountries
(the UK and the US), both with very low unemployment rates of 5% - full employment - ,
neverthelessstillfaceaverylowlevelofsocialharmonyandcontentment,suchthattheirsocieties
aregrowingmorepolarisedandmoreaggressive,notonlypolitically,butalsosocially.Eventhose
whohaveajobfeartheymayloseitanyday.Manyofthelowandlowermiddleclasshaveresigned
themselvestolowerwagesandonethirdofthemintheEUandUSfeelsthattheirstandardofliving
isdeclininginthelast5years.Themotto‘it’stheeconomystupid”isnolongerentirelytrue.Two
examplesofinequalities:
-
Jobs
-
Incomedistribution
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Inclimatechangewecanbecomeworldleadersinthecleanenergytransition,butotherplayers
likeChinaarecatchingup.Thistransitionisthegrowthfactorofthefuture.TheEUiswellplacedto
useourR&Dandinnovator’spoliciestoturnitintoaconcreteindustrialopportunity.Theclimate
scepticismoftheincomingAmericanadministrationisagainanopportunityforEuropeanstogo
aheadwithourclimategoals.Bytheway,wewill“over-perform”bydoingbetterin2020thanthe
targetof-20%greenhousegasemissions.Thenewobjectiveof-40%in2030iswithinreach.
TheUnionspokewithonevoiceattheCOP-21conferenceinParis,onthemostimportanttheme
forthehumanrace.Weshouldn’tbetoohumble.
 
Anotherareawhereweshouldn’tmissthetrainisAfrica.Wedonatedalotinthepast.Weopened
our market for African countries. But China is on the rise in Africa. We have to react. The
Commissionisfullyawareofinvestmentpossibilitiesandissettingupinstruments.Ifwewantto
contain migration coming from this populous neighbouring continent, we have to offer them
somethinginexchange.Africa’sshareoftheglobalpopulationisexpectedtogrowfrom16,4%in
2015to25%in2050,and39%by2100.Financingconcreteinvestments,alsoattractingprivate
capitalwherepossible,needstobecomeapriority.
 
The biggest danger of neo-nationalism and populismall overtheworldand alsointheEU is a
“bunker-mentality”ora“fortress”mind-set.Theparadoxisthatwehavetoremainopen-minded
inordertodefendourinterestsandouridentity.Thebiggestenemyisfear.Itispreciselyanxiety
whichisatthesourceofirrationalityandevenofdecisionsgoingagainstthelongtermsocialand
economicinterestsofourpeople,ournations,andofEuropeasawhole.Irepeat,thisopennesshas
togohandinhandwithprotectingourcitizensbetteragainstunfairandundesirableevolutions.It
canbeournewnarrativefortheyearstocome.Amixofoffensiveanddefensive,butinanycasea
narrativeofhope.
Let’shopethataftertheelectionsof2017inEuropeanewinitiativeistakentore-dynamisetoreenergisetheEuropeanUnion.Iprefertousethisverbinsteadof“re-invent”.Itwouldmeananew
Treaty.Thelastonetook8yearstonegotiate.Letusinvestourtimeandenergyonotherissues.
Thisdoesn’tpreventusfromreflectingontheinstitutionalframeworkforafutureEurope.Wecan
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evenaskagrouptoproduceproposals,buttheupcomingyearswillbedevotedtopoliciesandto
obtaining“results”.“TheEuropeofresults”istheonlywaytogetbacktrust.
Butweneedmorethandeeds.WehavetochangeourlanguageabouttheEUandBrussel.Mycity
isthesymbolofanegativeEurope,imposingsacrificesandeffortsonpeopleafterthegloriousdays
ofthewin-win,whenEuropewasnotyetaffectingourdailylives.AsIsaid,thisperceptionchanged
dramaticallywiththeintroductionoftheeuro.TheUnionismaturenow.Itisnolongeraloveaffair
ofyoungpeople.Weareinamarriagewithitsupsanddowns,withthe27,“forbetterandfor
worse”.Wehavetofightforourmarriage.Loveisaverb.Wehaveto“speakforEurope”.One
country is in a process of divorce. Let’s hope we can achieve an “amicable” divorce by mutual
consent.Untilnowthisisnotsure.Let’shope.
 
Inatimeofglobalisation–notonlyintheeconomy,butinsomanyfieldssuchasinformation,
culture,fashion,sport,music–thereisnoroomforastand-aloneandforthissentimentofnational
“exceptionalism”.Weareinournationstatesnotbetterthanothersbutweareproudthatweare
whatweare.Identityisaverynaturalfeeling,certainlywithpeoplewithwhomweliveclosely.But
identityhasalwaystoremainopen.Identitycanhavedifferentlayers,alsoaEuropeanone.
TheEuropeanideaisayoungproject,historicallyspeaking.Youngerthanmostofournationstates.
Itisinabuilding-upstage.ItisalreadynowapartofourculturalandpoliticalDNA.
6.
Brexitisapoliticaldecision,butonceitistaken,itwillbeboundbylegalprocedureswithinthe
institutionalframeworkoftheEU.TheUKreferendumwasbasedonasimpleYESorNOanswerto
remainingintheEU,buttheoutcomeisverycomplicatedandhasfar-reachingeconomicaswellas
politicalconsequences.Thevotewasamoment.Alltherestisaprocess.
Brexitisalsoastrikingexampleofthelackofpoliticalleadership.Wehavetolistentothepeople–
althoughourpopulationareveryheterogeneous,butweneedalsopoliticalcourage.Wecanhave
ademocraticandaleadershipdeficitatthesametime.LetmeaddtwoconsiderationsonBrexit:
oneontheprocedure(relatedtothecitizens),andanotheroneonillusionscreated.
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Letmeaddthatareferendumneverappeasessociety.A“yes”or“no”polarizesandreinforces
enemy-thinking. One never has a rational debate. It’s always about emotions, passions and
sometimesevenhate.Areferendumalsogivesanswerstoquestionsneverposed.Wecreated
parliamentsforweighingtheprosandtheconsinasereneway.Referendaarenotaboutmore
democracy,butaboutalackofpoliticalcourageandleadership.
ThestartingpointfortheEUis“BrexitmeansBrexit”.ThereisnohiddenEUagendatobringBritain
onboardagain–onlytheBritishcoulddecideonthat!Theinstitutionalfirststepisthetriggeringof
article50oftheTreaties.Acountryhastonotifythatitwantstoleave.“Nonegotiationbefore
notification”isthepositionoftheEuropeanCouncilasof28/29June2016.Itisrepeatedsincethen.
The Conservative government has delayed the activation of art.50 because it is not ready to
negotiateyet,neithertechnicallyorpolitically.Brexitwasnotforeseenandnotpreparedatall.
ThegovernmentisclearlydividedonkeyissuesaboutthefuturerelationshipwiththeEUafterthe
end of its membership, especially in the economic and trade field, and on “migration” (free
movementoflabour).Thevictoryofthe“leave”-votewaspreciselyduetothefearof“migration”,
aftertheinfluxof3millionEU-citizenstotheUK,eventhoughmoremigrantstoBritaincomefrom
outsidetheEU,andEUfreemovementistwo-way,withmanyBritsinotherEUcountries.Actually
achoiceseemstohavebeenmade:restrictingmigrationismoreimportantthantheeconomy.
Britainwaslongthoughttohavea‘transactional’viewontheEU,lookingatitseconomicinterests.
Thisisnolongerthecase.
ThePMhastoreachaninternalagreementonthefuturerelationshipwiththeEUbutshealsohas
tofindoutwhatkindofproposalstandsachanceofbeinganegotiatingbaseforthe27.Aconsensus
withintheUKgovernmentisofnouseifitisunacceptablefromthestartforthe27.“Ittakestwo
to tango”. But if it is the case that the EU has to say immediately after the triggering that the
proposal of the British government is not a valid basis for negotiations, we would face a very
dangerousmomentalreadyinafewmonths.Itwillbedifficultfortheconservativegovernmentto
changeitsproposalbecauseitwastheresultofalaboriouscompromisewithintherulingparty.
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TheintentionoftheUKistotriggerart.50beforetheendofMarch2017.Thegovernmentwants
toconcludethenegotiationsbeforethenextEuropeanelectionsof2019.Beforetheelectionsin
FranceandGermanyinthecourseof2017andtheformationofnewgovernments,noserious
negotiationsontheseparationwilltakeplace.Betweenthosetwodatesthereareonlytwelve
months,insteadoftheexpectedtwoyears.
TheUK-EU(27)negotiationshavetodealwithtwokindsofproblems:
-Thearrangementsforthewithdrawal(separationtreaty)
-Theframeworkforthefuturerelationship
ThewithdrawalagreementisaboutthingstobedonetoextricatetheUKfromitsEUrightsand
obligations.Ithastoaddressalargenumberofso-called“technical”issues
Theseparationtreatyhastobeapprovedbyqualifiedmajority(20outof27MS),bytheEuropean
ParliamentaswellasbytheUKparliament.Agreementsonthefutureframeworkcanonlycome
aftertheendoftheseparationprocedure!Ifthereisnoagreementontheseparationtreaty,itis
the“guillotine”orcompletechaos.Itisinnobody’sinterest,butwearelivinginunprecedentedand
irrationaltimes!
ThekeyframeworkofanyfuturerelationshipwiththeEUisabouttrade,eveniftradeisonlyone
part of our future relationship. The European Council made it clear in June that such trade
negotiationscannotreallystartuntiltheUKhaslefttheEUandattainedthirdcountrystatus.The
EUcannotconcludeatradedealwithoneofitsownmembers!Ofcourse,informaltalkscanstart
beforetheseparationagreementisconcluded!Butthatkindofagreementislikelytobea“mixed
agreement”andthereforewillbeonethatissubjecttounanimousratificationbyall27Member
States(andmostlikelytheirparliaments...),runningthegauntletofveto.Inanycase,itwillbea
longprocess,whichwillextendtheperiodofeconomicuncertainty.
Theinstitutionalframeworkisofutmostimportance.Britainwillneedatransitionalarrangement
forthecompaniesandtheeconomy:afterthedefinitiveexit(andthusalsoofthesinglemarket)
untiltheendoftheratificationofthetradedealinthe27parliaments.Itmaytakeyears.This
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transitional arrangement has to be agreed f.i. in the withdrawal agreement. The most rational
option would be to prolong the current participation in the single market, but the issue of
‘migration’makesthisapparentlyimpossible.
Icomebacktothecontent.WhatkindoftradedealdoesBritainwant?
TheUKcouldoptforanFTA.IfBritainrejectsthe‘fourfreedoms’andacustomsunion,anFTAisa
likelyoption.InthatcaseBritishtradingcompaniesexportingtotheEUwillhavetorespectEU
legislationandstandards.
So,noneoftheoptionsareeasy.Andeachoftheoptionsincludesachapterofmigrationorthe
statusofEUcitizensresidingintheUK.Onecannotneveravoidthisproblem.
TheEU-27nowconsidertheirownunityasatoppriorityinthenegotiationsandintheworkonthe
futureoftheEUalthoughtheviewsandtheinterestsaredivergentinaseriesofdomains.Butthere
isnowasolidconsensusonacentralnegotiatingline:fullrespectofthefourfreedoms.Inother
words,Britainiswelcometostayinthesinglemarket,butitmustplaybythesamerulesastherest
ofusinthatmarket.
Let me conclude: apart from the underestimated problems it will create for Britain, the main
politicalvictimofBrexitistheUnion.Itspeaceprojectisnownolongerirreversible.Theideaofthe
Founding Fathers was precisely to create irreversible economic bonds so that war would be
precluded.Tradeattheserviceofpeace.Interdependencewastheaim.Thesupportersof“leave”
wanttoregain“control”.Yetnational‘control’isexactlytheoppositeofwhattheEUisaimingfor!
Andanyway,itisanillusion:intoday’sworldofglobalisation,national‘control’issimplyimpossible.
Interdependenceisaworldwidereality.
We live in unprecedented and even dangerous times, not only in our Southern and Eastern
neighbourhood,butalsowithinoursocieties.Oursocietiesareonthemoveduetoglobalisation,
digitalisation,unemploymentandinequalities,massivemigration,andtheriseofindividualismand
polarisation.Thevaluesonwhichoursocio-economicmodelsarebuiltupon,havetobedefended
andthemodelsthemselveshavetobeadapted.
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I still think that this is “doable”. We can make it. We did it in the past, after catastrophes and
tragedies.Wecandoitwithoutthese.Ibelieveintheopennessoftheyounggeneration.Wehave
tocombinethiswiththesenseofprotectionoftheolderones.Iremainamanofhope.
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