Secchi depth in the Baltic Sea – an indicator of eutrophication Vivi Fleming-Lehtinen ACADEMIC DISSERTATION To be presented, with the permission of the Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences of the University of Helsinki, for public examination in lecture room 1 (B116), Metsätalo, on 18 November 2016, at 12 noon. © Fleming-Lehtinen V (synopsis) © Elsevier (Paper I, IV) © Fleming-Lehtinen V and Simis S (Paper III) © Springer (Paper II) Author’s address: Vivi Fleming-Lehtinen Marine Research Centre Finnish Environment Institute SYKE PO Box 140 FI 00251 Helsinki Finland Supervised by: Adjunct Professor Harri Kuosa Marine Research Centre Finnish Environment Institute SYKE Adjunct Professor Hermanni Kaartokallio Marine Research Centre Finnish Environment Institute SYKE Reviewed by: Professor Agneta Andersson Department of Ecology and Environmental Science EMG, Umeå University Professor Lauri Arvola Lammi biological station University of Helsinki Opponent: Professor Mike Elliott Institute of Estuarine and Coastal Studies School of Biological, Biomedical & Environmental Sciences University of Hull ISBN 978-951-51-2704-4 (paperback) ISBN 978-951-51-2705-1 (PDF) KWWSHWKHVLVKHOVLQNL¿ 8QLJUD¿D2\ Helsinki 2016 Fleming-Lehtinen, V. 2016. Secchi depth in the Baltic Sea – an indicator of eutrophication. University of Helsinki, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Helsinki. 42 pages. ABSTRACT Secchi depth, a proxy of water clarity, is widely applied as an indicator of eutrophication or water quality both in open-sea- and coastal areas. In optically complex waters, such as the Baltic Sea, Secchi depth is known to respond to several components – yet its performance, or possible restrictions, have not been explored. In this study, I investigated long-term changes in Secchi GHSWK,DOVRH[SORUHGWKHVWUXFWXUHVFLHQWL¿FEDVLVDQGXVHRI6HFFKLGHSWKDVDQLQGLFDWRURI eutrophication in the Baltic Sea. Secchi depth decreased in the open Baltic Sea during the last century (Paper I). The decrease was especially intense in the northern areas, amounting to 3.3 – 4.0 m (averaging 0.033 – 0.040 m y-1), when comparing summer time averages in 2005 – 2009 to those observed one hundred years earlier. The decrease was proposed to be strongly linked with documented simultaneous increase in chlorophyll-a concentration (Papers I, III). A closer look at the Finnish coastal areas, where a national monitoring program has taken place since 1970, revealed clear decreasing trends only in the Archipelago Sea – accompanied by opposing trends in chlorophyll-a (Paper II). Contradictory to this, and to the development in adjacent open sea areas, Secchi depth was observed to increase in the coastal Bothnian Sea, Quark and Bothnian Bay. I suggest the increase was at least partly a consequence of decreased concentrations of dissolved iron in the surface waters near the coast. The relationship between Secchi depth and WRWDORUJDQLFFDUERQ72&ZDVWHVWHGEXWDVLJQL¿FDQWUHODWLRQVKLSZDVQRWIRXQG±LQGLUHFWO\ indicating that a large part of organic carbon was colorless. Unfortunately, the long-term coastal dataset did not allow comparison to suspended inorganic matter, leaving the possible effect of potentially important coastal constituent unrevealed. The effect of the main optical constituents on light attenuation in the open sea were investigated through a bio-optical model setup, in order to resolve how the Secchi depth indicator should be applied in different parts of the Baltic Sea (Paper III). Secchi depth was shown to be highly sensitive to variation in both phytoplankton (by chlorophyll-a as proxy) and colorful dissolved organic matter (CDOM). As expected, based on the high spatial gradients in both optical constituents, the evaluation against monitoring data called for sub-basin-wise adjustments to the model outcome. Secchi depth is often applied together with other indicators, including chlorophyll-a. The modelling exercise revealed, that the environmental targets for Secchi depth, set by the Baltic Sea coastal states via their collaboration through the Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission (HELCOM), were stricter than those set for chlorophyll-a. To facilitate future management use of the Secchi depth indicator, I made an effort to characterize it in relation to indicators in general. Secchi depth is a commonly applied and well established indicator of eutrophication and water quality in the Baltic Sea. It is technically relatively advanced: quantitative, regularly monitored, and includes ecological targets as well as documented methodology. It is also easily understood by the public. On the other hand, though simple to associate, it LVDFRPSRVLWHLQGLFDWRUZKLFKUHTXLUHVFDVHVSHFL¿FDQDO\VLVEHIRUHLWVUROHLQWKHHXWURSKLFDWLRQ SURFHVVFDQEHDFFXUDWHO\GH¿QHG Finally, Secchi depth was applied in the Baltic Sea eutrophication status assessment (Paper IV), and alternative ways to apply the indicator were explored. According to the assessment 20072011, all open-sea areas of the Baltic Sea were severely affected by eutrophication. Due to the 3 deteriorated status of all indicators, variation in the construction of the assessment did not affect the general outcome. Secchi depth on its own expressed deteriorated status in most areas, meeting its environmental target only in the Bothnian Bay. The strong relationship between Secchi depth and chlorophyll-a motivates the use of Secchi depth as a eutrophication indicator throughout the open Baltic Sea. The strong association to CDOM, however, presents a combination of possible additional autochthonous as well as allochthonous signals. The sensitivity of Secchi depth to the main optical constituents varies between open-sea areas, and furthermore, needs to be addressed separately in the coastal zone, where LQRUJDQLFFRQVWLWXHQWVDUHH[SHFWHGWREHVLJQL¿FDQW%HLQJDFRPSRVLWHLQGLFDWRU6HFFKLGHSWK was found suitable for expressing eutrophication together with other indicators; relying on Secchi depth alone would introduce a risk of misinterpretations, especially when the role of water clarity LQWKHHFRV\VWHPLVQRWVROYHGDUHDVSHFL¿FDOO\2QWKHRWKHUKDQG6HFFKLGHSWKPD\WXUQWREH YDOXDEOHLQUHÀHFWLQJVLJQDOVQRWFXUUHQWO\FDSWXUHGE\RWKHULQGLFDWRUV Keywords: Secchi depth, water clarity, eutrophication, indicator, assessment, good environmental status, target. 4 TIIVISTELMÄ Näkösyvyys kertoo veden kirkkaudesta. Sitä on käytetty laajasti rehevöitymisen tilan ja vedenlaadun osoittimena (indikaattorina) sekä avomerellä että rannikonläheisillä merialueilla. Itämeren tyyppisissä, optisesti monimuotoisissa vesissä se reagoi useisiin veden ominaisuuksiin. Silti sen suorituskykyä osoittimena, tai käyttöön liittyviä rajoituksia, ei ole liiemmin selvitetty. Tässä työssä tarkastelen näkösyvyyden pitkäaikaismuutoksia Itämerellä. Tutkin myös näkösyvyys-osoittimen ominaisuuksia ja käyttömahdollisuuksia. Kuluneen vuosisadan aikana Itämeren näkösyvyys laski (Julkaisu I). Voimakkainta lasku oli pohjoisilla alueilla, yltäen 3.3 – 4.0 m sadassa vuodessa (keskiarvona 0.033 – 0.040 m v-1). Esitän, että näkösyvyyden lasku liittyy vahvasti samaan aikaan tapahtuneeseen levämäärän (a-klorofyllipitoisuus, lehtivihreän määrä) lisääntymiseen pintavedessä (Julkaisut I, III). Vuodesta 1970 alkaen jatkunut seuranta mahdollisti Suomen rannikkoalueiden näkösyvyysmuutosten lähemmän tarkastelun. Saaristomerellä todettiin selkeä laskeva suuntaus – ja samanaikainen levämäärän lisääntyminen (Julkaisu II). Selkämeren, Merenkurkun ja Perämeren rannikoilla suuntaus oli päinvastainen: näkösyvyyden todettiin kasvaneen, mikä oli ristiriidassa myös näitä rannikkokaistaleita ympäröivien avomerialueiden kehityksen kanssa. Esitän että veden kirkastuminen kyseisissä vesissä on ainakin osittain seurausta liuenneiden rautayhdisteiden määrän vähenemisestä. Näkösyvyyden ja kokonaishiilen (TOC) määrän muutoksia testattiin myös suhteessa toisiinsa, ilman näyttöä merkitsevästä riippuvuudesta – minkä tulkitsin johtuvan siitä, että ainakin osa veteen liuenneesta hiilestä on väritöntä. Kiintoaineen suhteen vertailua ei ikävä kyllä ollut mahdollista tehdä, joten sen merkitystä näkösyvyyden muutoksiin rannikolla ei pystytty tutkimaan. Pohdin Itämeren avomerialueiden tärkeimpien valon vaimenemiseen vaikuttavien ainesosien vaikutusta näkösyvyyteen bio-optisen mallijärjestelyn avulla (Julkaisu III). Tämä auttoi selvittämään kuinka näkösyvyysosoitinta tulisi soveltaa Itämeren eri osissa. Näkösyvyys osoittautui olevan herkkä sekä levämäärän (lehtivihreän kautta tulkittuna) että humusaineiden (CDOM) vaihtelulle. Herkkyys vaihteli alueellisesti siinä määrin, että mallin tuloksia jouduttiin sovittamaan merialuekohtaisesti. Näkösyvyyttä hyödynnetään tilanarvioissa usein yhdessä muiden osoittimien, kuten levämäärän, kanssa. Mallinnuksen seurauksena päädyin esittämään, että näkösyvyydelle kansainvälisesti, Itämeren Suojelukomission (HELCOM) toimesta asetetut ympäristön hyvän tilan tavoitetasot ovat levämäärälle asetettuja tavoitteita kunnianhimoisemmat. Tukeakseni näkösyvyysosoittimen tulevaa käyttöä, tein arvion sen ominaisuuksista suhteessa osoittimiin yleensä. Näkösyvyys on jo laajasti käyttöönotettu rehevöitymisen ja vedenlaadun osoitin Itämerellä. Se on teknisesti kehittynyt: määrällinen (kvantitatiivinen), säännöllisesti seurattu (monitoroitu), menetelmiltään todennettu osoitin, jolle on kyetty määrittämään hyvän tilan tavoitetasot. Se on myös helposti ymmärrettävä ja käytännönläheinen. Vaikka se on toiminnallisesti yksinkertainen, on se rehevöitymiseen liittyvien syy-seuraussuhteiden osalta monimutkainen, ja edellyttää siltä osin aluekohtaisen analyysin ennen käyttöönottoa. Tutkin lopuksi näkösyvyyden käyttöä Itämerenlaajuisessa rehevöitymisen tilanarviossa (Julkaisu IV), kokeillen vaihtoehtoisia tapoja yhdistellä sitä muiden osoittimien kanssa. Vuosille 2007-2011 määritetyn Itämeren tilanarvion perusteella kaikki avomerialueet olivat rehevöityneitä. Erikseen jokaisen rehevöitymisen tilan osoittimen kautta tulkittuna tulos oli useimmilla alueilla sama, joten niiden uudelleenryhmittelyllä ei ollut vaikutusta kokonaistilanarvioon. Yksin näkösyvyyden kautta arvioituna rehevöitymisen tila oli huono useimmilla avomerialueilla, Perämerta lukuun ottamatta. Näkösyvyyden voimakas riippuvuus levämäärään kannustaa hyödyntämään sitä rehevöitymisen tilan osoittimena kautta Itämeren. Humusaineilla, joista merkittävä osa on maalta peräisin, on lisäksi vaikutusta vedenkirkkauteen – tämä tekee osoittimesta herkän myös rehevöitymisen 5 ulkopuolisille muutoksille. Tämä herkkyys vaihtelee alueellisesti, ja se tulee ottaa huomioon ja suhteuttaa olosuhteisiin niin rannikoilla kuin avomerellä. Näkösyvyys on parhaimmillaan ympäristön tilanarvioissa yhdessä muiden osoittimien kanssa. Luottaminen yksinomaan tämän syyseuraussuhteiltaan monimuotoisen osoittimen viestiin altistaa virhetulkinnoille, erityisesti mikäli vedenkirkkauden syitä ja riippuvuuksia ei ole selvitetty aluekohtaisesti. Toisaalta, yhdessä muiden osoittimien kanssa näkösyys saattaa tunnistaa signaaleja jotka eivät vaikuta muihin osoittimiin. Avainsanat: näkösyvyys, vedenkirkkaus, rehevöityminen, osoitin, indikaattori, tilanarvio, ympäristön hyvä tila, tavoitetaso. 6 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This thesis is a product of several years of pondering and debating, on the subjects of eutrophication, indicators, assessments and good status, involving many scientists and projects. I am not presenting the whole story, merely a chronicle of one parameter. Early on, I liked to think of us as detectives solving a mystery story, chasing for evidence buried long ago, or disappeared into the wind. Later, the mystery was transformed into a puzzle or a game; fitting together missing pieces, as if we were trying to fix a broken toy. I love the Secchi disk: its elegant design, its history and the humorous simplicity. First, I want to thank Padre Pietro Angelo Secchi (29 June 1818 – 26 February 1878) for giving us the toy, the mystery, the puzzle. I want to thank my supervisors Harri Kuosa and Hermanni Kaartokallio; our conceptual discussions were some of the most enjoyable moments of this adventure. I am deeply grateful to my steering group, Maiju Lehtiniemi and Kai Myrberg – my friends; at times, in order to steer, you had to give the engine a jump start. Additionally, I want to thank Juha-Markku Leppänen and Anna-Stiina Heiskanen for encouraging me, giving me the opportunity and showing an example, everyone should have bosses like you! I am grateful to the crew of the Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences for helping me through the academic jungle; not only Professors Hannu Lehtonen and Jukka Horppila, but also university lecturer Elina Leskinen – I would not be here without your persistence. My pre-examiners, Professor Agneta Anderson and Professor Lauri Arvola, I am proud and thankful for the interest you took in my work. I want to thank my co-authors Jesper Andersen, Jacob Carstensen, Pirkko Kauppila, Pirkko Kortelainen, Maria Laamanen, Elżbieta Łysiak-Pastuszak, Ciarán Murray, Minna Pyhälä, Antti Räike, Stefan Simis and David Thomas; it has been fun, and I hope this was not the end of it! I am also thankful to Riitta Olsonen for digging up the early data, as well as to the ICES team Else Juul Green and Hjalte Parner for helping with later data requests, and to Ritva Koskinen for the editing work. I want to express appreciation to my colleagues at SYKE and in the HELCOM community, you are invaluable, I have learned a great deal from you. I want to acknowledge my employer, the Finnish Environment Centre (SYKE), for supporting this work. The thesis synopsis is also a contribution to the Bonus project ‘Nutrient Coctails in the Coastal Zone of the Baltic Sea (COCOA)’. 7 Contents ABSTRACT.............................................................................................................. 3 TIIVISTELMÄ .......................................................................................................... 5 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ........................................................................................ 7 List of original papers, and author’s contribution ............................................. 9 Abbreviations ....................................................................................................... 10 1 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 11 'H¿QLQJDQGLGHQWLI\LQJPDULQHHXWURSKLFDWLRQ........................................................ 12 1.3 Assessing eutrophication status with ecological indicators ..................................... 14 1.4 Secchi depth in eutrophication assessments .......................................................... 15 1.5 Aims of the study ...................................................................................................... 15 2 Materials and methods ..................................................................................... 16 2.2 The Secchi depth method ........................................................................................ 17 2.3 Data and sources ..................................................................................................... 18 2.4 Approaches for interpreting information................................................................... 18 3 Results ............................................................................................................... 22 3.2 Temporal changes of Secchi depth along the Finnish coast (Paper II) ...................23 3.3 Changes in Secchi depth in relation to other parameters (Papers I, II) ...................25 3.4 The Secchi depth indicator (Paper III) .....................................................................28 3.5 Secchi depth in the eutrophication assessment ......................................................29 4 Discussion ........................................................................................................ 32 4.2 The relationship of Secchi depth and eutrophication...............................................32 'H¿QLQJWKHLQGLFDWRU ...............................................................................................35 4.4 Assessing eutrophication with the Secchi depth indicator.......................................36 5 Conclusions ....................................................................................................... 38 References ............................................................................................................ 40 8 List of original papers, and author’s contribution I Fleming-Lehtinen V & Laamanen M, 2012. Long-term changes in Secchi depth and the role of phytoplankton in explaining light attenuation in the Baltic Sea. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 102-103:1-10. ,, )OHPLQJ/HKWLQHQ95lLNH$.RUWHODLQHQ3.DXSSLOD37KRPDV''H¿QLQJ the role of Organic carbon concentration in the northern coastal Baltic Sea between 1975 and 2011. Estuaries and coast 38:466-481. III Fleming-Lehtinen V & Simis S. Interpreting the Baltic Sea Secchi depth eutrophication indicator by means of bio-optical modelling. Manuscript. ,9 )OHPLQJ/HKWLQHQ9$QGHUVHQ-+&DUVWHQVHQ-à\VLDN3DVWXV]DN(0XUUD\&3\KlOl M & Laamanen M, 2015. Recent developments in assessment methodology reveal that the Baltic Sea eutrophication problem is expanding. Ecological Indicators 48:380-388. Paper I Paper II Paper III Paper IV Original idea VF, ML DT VF, SS JA, VF, ML Study design VF, ML VF, AR, PKo, DT VF, SS VF, JA, ML Field work and laboratory analyses – – SS – Data compilation and handling VF VF, AR VF VF, JC Statistical analyses VF VF, AR VF VF, JC, CM Model parametrization and simulations – – SS – Manuscript preparation VF VF VF VF, JA Manuscript contribution ML AR, PKo, PKa, DT SS JC, ML, EL, CM, MP JA = Jesper H. Andersen, JC = Jacob Carstensen, VF = Vivi Fleming-Lehtinen, ML = Maria LaamaQHQ(/ (OĪELHWDà\VLDN3DVWXV]DN&0 &LDUiQ0XUUD\03 0LQQD3\KlOl$5 $QWWL5lLNH PKo = Pirkko Kortelainen, PKa = Pirkko Kauppila, SS = Stefan Simis, DT = David N. Thomas 9 Abbreviations aCDOM Absorption of light caused by CDOM CDOM Colourful / chromophoric dissolved organic matter DIN Dissolved inorganic nitrogen concentration DIP Dissolved inorganic phosphorus concentration (6 (VWLPDWLRQRILQGLFDWRUOHYHODWDSUHGH¿QHGDVVHVVPHQWSHULRG ER Eutrophication ratio, produced from ES and the target, indicating status of indicator, aggregation group or overall eutrophication GES Good Environmental Status (Anonymous 2008) HEAT HELCOM Eutrophication Assessment Tool (Andersen et al. 2011) HELCOM Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission LOESS Locally weighted scatterplot smoothing 7DUJHW ,QGLFDWRUVSHFL¿FHQYLURQPHQWDOWDUJHWHJWKHERXQGDU\H[SUHVVLQJ*(6 TOC Total organic carbon concentration 10 1 Introduction 1.1 Water clarity and Secchi depth Water clarity, or water transparency, is the ability of water to allow the transfer of light. It has a theoretical maximum of 80 m, and is decreased by light attenuation caused by the presence of particulate and dissolved matter. In the marine environment, attenuation is caused mainly by planktonic organisms, especially phytoplankton, suspended particulate matter, colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) and inorganic compounds (Preisendorfer 1986, Lund-Hansen 2004). Phytoplankton and other suspended particles scatter as well as absorb light, whereas non-particular substances contribute only to absorption. Autotrophic phytoplankton is the dominating optical constituent in most oceanic waters. In coastal and inland seas, such as the Baltic Sea, a considerable share of the attenuation constituents is allochthonous (Sandberg et al. 2004, Alling et al. 2008, Kulinski and Pempkowiak 2011). In these waters the attenuation is complex, and for example CDOM may play an important role (Kratzer 2000, Babin et al 2003). The depth at which a submerged white disk no longer is visible from the surface, the Secchi depth, has commonly been used as a proxy for water clarity. It has often been applied as a measure of the underwater light climate (Kirk 2000, Preisendorfer 1986), or even water quality (Carlson 1977, Lewis et al. 1988, Karydis 2009, Chen et al. 2010). In oceanic waters, it has also been used to quantify phytoplankton pigment (chlorophyll-a) concentrations (Boyce et al. 2012). Being a visual measure, Secchi depth is subject to apparent properties that do not affect water clarity, such as: the height of the sun, VXUIDFHUHÀHFWDQFHDQGYHVVHOVKDGRZ3UHLVHQdorfer 1986). Due to these apparent properties, and the fact that the measurements are made by a human eye, it has been argued that they are subjective and variable in comparison to instrumental measurements. It has been showed, that variation in Secchi depth in response to changes in aspects affecting the visibility of the Secchi disk (such as altering disk size or observer) increases along with increasing Secchi depth (Steel and Neuhausser 2002, Aas et al. 2014), and would thus be of more concern in clear than murky waters. Although, these differences are not expected encompass long term bias, they do emphasize the need for abundant monitoring. Developed by Father Pietro Angelo Secchi in 1865 (Secchi 1866), the Secchi disk is one of the oldest hydrological apparats still operated. The method has been used for monitoring and research of oceanic, coastal and inland waters, contributing to time-series covering periods over 100 years (Lewis et al. 1988, Aarup 2002, Naumenko 2007, Boyce 2012, Gallegos et al. 2011). During this time, measurements have been made by bare eye or through a water viewer, mainly using a completely white or white and black sectored disk, usually 30 cm in diameter (Figure 1-1). In the Baltic Sea, Secchi depth observations have been made since 1903 (Aarup 2002). The method is included as part of the monitoring program of the Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission (HELCOM 2015a), and observations are reported regularly to the HELCOM COMBINE database hosted by the International Council of the Exploration of the Sea (ICES). At present, measurements are made from research vessels by bare eye, using a white or black-and-white sectored disk. The disk diameter is usually 30 cm, but smaller disks may be used in murky coastal waters (Papers I and II). 11 Figure 1-1. Observing Secchi depth on board a research vessel in the Baltic Sea (A) in the beginning of the 20th century with the water viewer and (B) in 2005 by bare eye, using a plain white Secchi disk. From Paper I. 'H¿QLQJDQGLGHQWLI\LQJPDULQH eutrophication The term ‘eutrophication’ originates from the Greek word for ‘well fed’. Broadly speaking, it refers to increase in the production, organic supply or nutritional state of an ecosystem, usually caused by nutrient enrichment (Larsson et al. 1985, Nixon 1995). The opposite phenomenon is oligotrophication (Nixon 2009), decrease in the primary production in an ecosystem, generally due to decreasing nutrient inputs or concentrations. Though especially the former has been in the focus of environmental management and policy for decades, neither process is necessarily valuated ‘good’ or ‘bad’ per se. The development is considered alarming only when it is of anthropogenic origin and causes substantial negative effects on the society or ecology in the area. The direct negative effect of eutrophication in aquatic environments is seen to be the increase of primary production, causing increase 12 in the biomass of phytoplankton and opportunistic macrovegetation. The former in turn has further effects, such as decrease in water transparency, increase in detrital organic matter, increase in bottom oxygen consumption and shifts in pelagic and benthic communities, even to the extent of harmful algal blooms, extinction of species or formation of inhabitable areas (Larsson et al. 1985). However obvious the changes have seemed DW QXPHURXV VLWHV WKH H[DFW VFLHQWL¿F GH¿QLtion of the term ‘eutrophication’ remains vague. When the marine eutrophication problem was observed half a century ago, experts of the ¿HOG SURGXFHG D FRPPRQ HXWURSKLFDWLRQ UHYLHZDWWHPSWLQJWREHJLQE\GH¿QLQJWKHWHUP (Hutchinson 1969). The disputation has continued since. 2QHRIWKHPRVWVLWHGGH¿QLWLRQVRIHXWURSKication was made by Scott W. Nixon (1995, 2009), as the increase in the rate of supply of organic matter to an ecosystem. Importantly, Nixon emphasizes eutrophication to be a pro- cess, restricting from valuating it as good or EDG+LVGH¿QLWLRQIRFXVHVRQWKHDPRXQWRIHQergy or organic matter available to support the system, separating strictly the causes and consequences from the phenomenon itself. On the other hand, he disregards the relevance of the source of organic matter: all supply of organic matter is included in the process, regardless of whether the matter is produced in the sea (autochthonously) or introduced from elsewhere (allochthonously). All forms of organic matter are considered equal, regardless of their role and mobility in the system. A second approach, focusing on nutrient-driven increase of phytoplankton, algae and plant growth, has been introduced and widely used (e.g. Larsson et al. 1985). This approach emphasizes the role of autochthonous organic PDWWHU DOVR LGHQWL¿HG E\ 1L[RQ DV JHQHUDOO\ being the main, while not the only, concern of eutrophication. In environments with a food web supported by dissolved organic matter, the autochthonous approach might lead to an underestimation of the trophic state, when com- EutrophicaƟon according to Nixon (1995) SDUHG WR RQH EDVHG RQ 1L[RQ¶V GH¿QLWLRQ ,Q some situations, eutrophication has been de¿QHG VWULFWO\ DV LQFUHDVH RI PLQHUDO QXWULHQWV (Richardson and Jørgensen 1996). Here the focus has shifted away from carbon supply, to what according to Nixon (1995, 2009) would be categorized as a cause instead of the phenomenon itself. In other uses, the causes as well as indirect consequences, such as oxygen depletion or imbalanced ecosystem functioning, are LQFOXGHG LQWR WKH GH¿QLWLRQ RI HXWURSKLFDWLRQ (eg. Gray 1992). ,QRUGHUWRDYRLGH[FOXGLQJDQ\RIWKHGH¿QLtions presented earlier, eutrophication was sequenced in this thesis into four process-related categories, which may be referred to separately or together (Figure 1-2): Causative eutrophicationLVGH¿QHGDVLQFUHDVHLQWKHUDWHRIVXSSO\ of mineral nutrients from outside to an ecosystem (suggested by Richardson and Jørgensen 1996). Allochthonous eutrophicationLVGH¿QHG as increase in the rate of supply of organic matter from outside to an ecosystem (Nixon 1995). Autochthonous eutrophicationLVGH¿QHGDVLQ- Allochthonous eutrophicaƟon Autochthonous eutrophicaƟon EutrophicaƟon according to Gray (1992) and others Indirect eutrophicaƟon CausaƟve eutrophicaƟon EutrophicaƟon according to Richardson & Jörgensen (1996) Naturally originated Anthropogenically originated Figure 1-2. A schematic figure expressing the eutrophication categories applied in this thesis. The arrows indicate causative relationships. Naturally occurring processes are marked dark gray, and processes directly affected by human activities are marked gray. The process categories are grouped by gray dashed lines according to three optional definitions of eutrophication (see text for further explanations). 13 crease in the amount of organic matter produced in the ecosystem, as a direct response to added supply of mineral nutrients (Larsson et al. 1985, Nixon 1995). Indirect eutrophication LVGH¿QHG as changes in structure, function or stability of organisms or habitats, as a result of changes in autochthonous or allochthonous eutrophication elements (Gray 1992). The role of water clarity in the eutrophication process may differ, depending on the water area in question. The effect of nutrient enrichment on water clarity is relatively straight forward in optically simple waters, where phytoplankton alone dominates the attenuation of light: in such cases it has even been used as a proxy for chlorophyll-a (Boyce et al. 2012), indicating autochthonous eutrophication. In optically complex waters, the causes of change in water clarity are numerous, and the link to eutrophication may be blurred. Light attenuation is strongly affected by changes in the concentration of CDOM, which in turn may be allochthonous as well as autochnonous (Chrost and Faust 1983, Hoikkala et al 2015). Being a descriptor of the underwater light climate, water clarity can also be regarded as an element of indirect eutrophication, caused by absorption and scattering of autochthonous and allochthonous eutrophication constituents, having even further indirect eutrophication effects e.g. on macrophyte distribution (Kautsky et al. 1986). 1.3 Assessing eutrophication status with ecological indicators Assessing the eutrophication status for management purposes is not an easy task, even when the progress and cause-effect relationships are well understood (Karydis 2009). The scientifLFDOO\GH¿QHGQRQYDOXDWHGSURFHVVGHVFULEHG earlier must be interpreted in a new way, with the aim of distinguishing ‘desirable’ from ‘undesirable’ status (Andersen et al. 2006, Tett et al. 2007, Ferreira et al. 2011). A natural trophic level in one environment might be detrimental for the sustainability of another. The case-speFL¿F NH\ SDUDPHWHUV PXVW EH LGHQWL¿HG DQG measured – and their status must be related to ecosystem health (Constanza et al 1992). 14 A reliable assessment collectively involves all the key features of eutrophication, in agreePHQWZLWKWKHGH¿QLWLRQIRXQGPRVWDSSURSULDWH for the purpose. The set of features should be optimized, in the sense that irrelevant parameWHUVQRPDWWHUKRZVLJQL¿FDQWDWSRWHQWLDORWKHU sites, are not included along. In a quantitative assessment, numerical indicators, representing the eutrophication features, are integrated into an overall evaluation (Ferreira et al. 2011, Andersen et al 2015). Ecological indicators are thus used to communicate the status of the key eutrophication features to the public and decision makers. They are applied as building blocks of environmental assessments, in an attempt to simplify and restrict the information assembled when evaluating the eutrophication status of an ecosystem. As opposed to regular metrics, they are supposed to tell us something more than what they actually measure (Daan 2005). Ecological indicators may in practice vary from measurable quantitative parameters, applicable only together with other indicators, to broad non-numeric compilations covering several ecosystem HOHPHQWV6SHFL¿FGH¿QLWLRQVDQGUHTXLUHPHQWV for ecological indicators have been listed, but concise and commonly agreed guidelines do not exist. Below are features recognized here as essential in quantitative ecological indicators: – – The most important task of an indicator LV WR UHÀHFW WR WKH IHDWXUH RI FRQFHUQ LQ other words, show ¿GHOLW\ (James 1978). An indicator may be robust and insensitive to slight variation in state, but it should respond in an expected way to substantial changes, within a reasonable time-span. For example, the status of an eutrophication indicator should change predictably along with increased nutrient supply and primary production, with a delay short enough to initiate management responses. An indicator must be able to distinguish desirable from undesirable state, preferably through an environmental target, reference point or boundary valueUHÀHFWLQJ the threshold between desirable and undesirable (Constanza et al. 1992). Combined – – – – – with the estimation of present level, this value may be applied to evaluate quantitative indicator status. When applied to facilitate environmental management, the indicators shall be linked to one or several environmental pressures, and react to changes in these. The link may be either direct or indirect. In optimal cases, the relationship can be demonstrated from monitoring data, but often the complexity of the system prohibits this, and the link may be established only conceptually. An indicator should be applicable in all geographical areas of interest, and throughout the timespan of interest. In practice, WKLV UHTXLUHV FRQ¿GHQFH LQ WKH LQGLFDWRU describing the same aspect of the process, regardless of time and space. The relevant spatial and temporal scale/resolution for WKHLQGLFDWRUPXVWEHGH¿QHG Ecological indicators are foremost management tools, and must thus be commonly understandable, also by others than exSHUWVRIWKH¿HOG7KHFRQFHSWDVZHOODV results should be easy to communicate. Good assessments are not one-offs, but used to follow change in environmental status in a longer term. Indicators need to be updatable at a regular interval, and continuous monitoring activity must be in place, or at least realistically possible, to allow this. The approach and methodology applied for updating the indicator must be well documented. Optimally this involves reporting all the above mentioned aspects together with guidelines for indicator update. 1.4 Secchi depth in eutrophication assessments Secchi depth has been recommended to be applied as an indicator of eutrophication in phytoplankton-dominant clear waters, where the relationship between water clarity and chlorophyll-a is strong (Anonymous 2000, Tett et al. 2007, Anonymous 2008, Ferreira et al. 2011). In this kind of use, it is determined as an indicator of autochthonous eutrophication, and Secchi depth has been used as a second alternative for expressing autotrophic biomass. The main advantage of the indicator is the potential for VRXQG WDUJHWVHWWLQJ SUR¿WLQJ IURP KLVWRULFDO monitoring activities beyond the time when observation methods for more direct proxies were in place. The use of Secchi depth has however not been restricted to optically simple waters, but it has frequently been applied as an indicator of autotrophic biomass also in waters strongly affected by CDOM or suspended inorganic matter (HELCOM 2009, Dobiesz et al. 2008). In these waters, demonstrating the relationship between Secchi depth and optical constituents is essential. The indicator may capture non-autotrophic yet eutrophication-related signals from increased autochtonous CDOM, resulting from autotrophic or heterotrophic production. Or, water clarity might have a strong organic or inorganic allochthonous component. Theoretically speaking, Secchi depth could DOVREHFODVVL¿HGDVDQLQGLFDWRURIindirect eutrophication. This interpretation could be used if decrease in water clarity is regarded rather as a subsequence than a proxy of phytoplankton increase, causing further consequences in the structure of the system. Secchi depth might for example be distinguished as a proxy for something more complicated to measure, such as macrophyte depth distribution, in a case when macrophyte growth is restricted by light availability as a result of eutrophication (Kautsky et al. 1986). 1.5 Aims of the study The main objective of this study was to explore WKHVWUXFWXUHVFLHQWL¿FEDVLVDQGXVHRI6HFFKL depth, a proxy of water clarity, as an indicator of eutrophication in the Baltic Sea. It is already applied widely to indicate eutrophication or water quality both in open-sea and coastal areas, but how does it perform as an indicator? Are there restrictions to its use, for example in that it indicates change not related to eutrophication? Is it similarly applicable in different geographical areas? 15 In the study, I examined the long-term development of Secchi depth in the Baltic Sea, taking advantage of observations made in the course of a century of monitoring. I mainly investigated the development in the different open-sea sub-basins, but took also a closer look at the coastal areas surrounding Finland, where the national monitoring program had taken place since 1970. Furthermore, I made an attempt of linking the long-term development of Secchi depth to changes in other parameters potentially affecting attenuation of light: mainly chlorophyll-a, but in the coastal areas, also total organic carbon (TOC) and dissolved iron concentrations. Unfortunately the long-term coastal dataset did not allow comparison to suspended inorganic matter. Importantly, I studied the effect of the main optical constituents on light attenuation in the open sea through a bio-optical model setup, in order to resolve how the Secchi depth indicator should be applied in different parts of the Baltic Sea. When investigating the use of Secchi depth as an indicator of eutrophication, the application of the term eutrophication needed to be GH¿QHG,GLVFXVVHGGLIIHUHQWLQWHUSUHWDWLRQVRI eutrophication, and categorized them in attempt to link theory to practice. To facilitate future management, I characterized the Secchi depth indicator. I listed requirements and recommendations relevant for indicators in general, and inspected Secchi depth in light of these. Finally, I applied Secchi depth in the Baltic Sea eutrophication status assessment, and discussed its role in light of the overall result. I also explored alternative ways to apply the indicator, to see how those would affect the evaluation. Linking these results to the model simulation, I was able to evaluate how well the environmental target-setting of Secchi depth and chlorophyll-a are aligned. 16 2 Materials and methods 2.1 The Baltic Sea The study was conducted in the Baltic Sea, a semi-enclosed brackish water basin situated in north-eastern Europe (Figure 2-1). It has a mean depth of 54 meters, and is separated from the North Sea only by the narrow and shallow Danish sounds. It expresses typically decreasing salinity and temperature gradients (Leppäranta and Myrberg 2009), and increasing amounts of land-based dissolved organic matter (Hoikkala et al. 2015), when moving from the south-western sound-area towards the north-eastern parts of the sea. Both biotic and abiotic features vary seasonally, as the sea is characterized by a dark and cold winter and frequent ice-cover, followed by the onset of a phytoplankton spring bloom and subsequent a short summer with potential cyanobacterial blooms. The sea is shallow, and subject to considerable nutrient and carbon loads from land, which together with the slow water exchange make it vulnerable to eutrophication. $FFRUGLQJWRWKHGH¿QLWLRQDJUHHGE\+(/COM, the Baltic Sea consists of 17 open-sea sub-basins (HELCOM Monitoring and AsVHVVPHQW 6WUDWHJ\ KWWSZZZKHOFRP¿DFtion-areas/monitoring-and-assessment/monitoring-and-assessment-strategy, Papers I, III, IV). Nine of these, characterized as the large open-sea sub-basins within the Danish Sounds, were included in this study: 1) the Arkona and 2) Bornholm Seas are southern sub-basins, separated from the Baltic Proper and each other by an underwater sill. The Baltic Proper contains the main volume of the sea, and is divided into three smaller units: 3) the Western and 4) Eastern Gotland Basins and the 5) Northern Baltic Proper. The 6) Gulf of Riga is a bay separated from the Eastern Gotland Basin by islands and an underwater sill. The 7) Gulf of Finland is a direct north-eastern extension of the Northern Baltic Proper. 8) The Bothnian Sea is separated from the Northern Baltic Proper by the Archipelago Sea as well as a sill and a narrow but deep sound. 9) The Bothnian Bay is a further extension of the Bothnian Sea, separated from it by the shallow Quark-area (Papers I, III and IV). Figure 2-1. The Baltic Sea and its sub-basins. The countries sharing the Baltic Sea shoreline are also indicated (EST = Estonia, DEN = Denmark, FIN = Finland, GER = Germany, LAT = Latvia, LIT = Lithuania, POL = Poland, RUS = Russia and SWE = Sweden). Produced using shapefiles received from HELCOM The coastal study was restricted to the Finnish waters, adjacent to the northern open-sea sub-basins: the Gulf of Finland, Northern Baltic Proper, Archipelago Sea, Bothnian Sea, Quark and Bothnian Bay (Paper II). The areas differ from each other geologically. The coast along the Gulf of Finland is buffered from the open sea by a narrow strip of islands. The Archipelago Sea consists of mosaic archipelago between the western Gulf of Finland and the southern Bothnian Sea. The coastlines of the Bothnian Sea and Bothnian Bay are mainly open to the sea, while the Quark consists of a shallow coastal archipelago. All the coastal areas are strongly LQÀXHQFHGE\IUHVKZDWHULQSXW3DSHU,9 2.2 The Secchi depth method Secchi depth is described as the depth at which a submerged white disk disappears from sight, when viewed from above the surface. The measurements are generally made by lowering a 30 cm diameter white disk, attached to a line, from a vessel. Both the color and the diame17 ter of the disk may however vary: It is usually completely white, but also disks with white and black sectors have been applied (though mostly in lakes). In the Finnish coastal areas, a 20 cm diameter white disc or top lid of a Limnos water sampler is most common (paper II). The observations during the bio-optical sampling were made using a white disk of 30 cm diameter (Paper III). This was apparently also the case for the long-term open sea data from the 1940’s RQZDUGWKRXJKLWFRXOGQRWEHFRQ¿UPHGVLQFH the size or type of the disk was not always informed by the data providers. Aas et al. (2014) estimated, that a considerable decrease of disk size would reduce Secchi depth at least at levels above 6 m, but in turbid or murky waters, such as the Baltic Sea, the reported slight changes in disk diameter were not expected to have had a substantial effect in the measurement result (Holmes 1970). In the early 20th century, Secchi depth was usually measured using a disk of 60 cm in diameter, observed by a water viewer (Figure 1). 7KLVZDVDVLJQL¿FDQWGLIIHUHQFHWRWKHPHWKodology applied later on, and was considered to cause potential bias in the results through overestimating long-term change. The measurements made prior to 1944 were therefor corrected according to empirical testing results from the Baltic Sea (Paper I and references within). Secchi depth measurements are known to be affected by sun glitter, sea roughness and lack of light (Preisendorfer 1986, Aas et al. 2014). According to the HELCOM COMBINE monitoring program for the Baltic Sea (HELCOM 2015a), measurements are to be restricted to circumstances with good visibility and light conditions, when the sea is relatively calm. Although not mentioned in the manual, measurements are recommended to be taken on the sunny side of the vessel (Tyler 1968). The above instructions were applied during the bio-optical cruises (Paper III). Information on light and weather conditions was not available from the long-term monitoring data (Papers I, II, III), and could thus not be corrected for. They were, however, assumed not to have temporal 18 or spatial patterns, and were taken to be of minor consequence to the long-term investigation. 2.3 Data and sources The study relied mainly on Secchi depth monitoring observations, in some cases accompanied by chlorophyll-a monitoring measurements at the surface (Papers I-IV, Table 2-1). The monitoring had been conducted by national authorities of the Baltic Sea coastal states, and results had been reported to national databases and/or the HELCOM COMBINE database hosted by the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES). Some of the national data were reached via the Baltic Environmental Database (BED), which is a distributed database hub hosted by the Baltic Nest Institute (BNI). The data used in the bio-optical modelling exercise (Paper III, Table 2-1) included in-water optical measurements, chlorophyll-a water samples and Secchi depth measurements. The observations were collected on research cruises. 2.4 Approaches for interpreting information Various statistical and visualization approaches, from data interpolation to modeling or use of D VSHFL¿F DJJUHJDWLRQ WRRO ZHUH DSSOLHG IRU interpreting the information (Table 2-2). Each approach was chosen to suit the question and dataset at hand. Spatial aggregation The HELCOM sub-basin -division (HELCOM 2013a) was applied when investigating the open-sea areas of the Baltic Sea (Papers I, III, IV). The division is based on information on the physico-chemical properties of the DUHDVDLPLQJDWVXI¿FLHQWKDUPRQ\IRUDVVHVVment purposes within each sub-basin, and has been commonly agreed by the Baltic coastal states via HELCOM. During the last decades, the sub-basin-division had been borne in mind when planning the common Baltic Sea monitoring programme (HELCOM 2015a). Table 2-1. The datasets used in the thesis, as well as the included parameters, spatial scale, time-period, temporal or vertical cropping applied, the sources of data and the paper(s) the data was used in. The details are fully presented in the papers. Dataset Parameters Spatial scale Time-period Cropping Sources Presented Oceanographic data Secchi depth Open Baltic Sea 1903-2012 Months: Jun-Sep Dec-Feb ICES - OCEAN database SMHI SHARK database IMWM - oceanographic database LIAE Centre of Marine Research in Lithuania Papers I, III Introduction Finnish national monitoring data Secchi depth Finnish coast 1975-2011 SYKE Paper II HELCOM eutrophication assessment data Secchi depth Open Baltic Sea 2007-2011 Months: Jun-Sep ICES – HELCOM COMBINE database BNI – BED database Paper IV Surface data Secchi depth chlorophyll-a Open Baltic Sea 1972-2012 Depth (of chlorophyll-a): 0–2m SYKE Papers I, III In-water optical data Secchi depth chlorophyll-a aCDOM(ʄ) aʔ(ʄ) b(ʄ) bb(ʄ) aCDOM(ʄ) aCDOM Open and coastal Baltic Sea 2008-2011 Stefan Simis (Finnish Environment Institute SYKE / Plymouth Marine Laboratory) and Tiit Kutser (Estonian Marine Institute) Paper III Table 2-2. Methods used for data analysis in papers I-IV. Paper I II Spatial interpolation Time series X X X Trend analysis Comparison of timeperiods Correlation analysis X X III IV As the borders between the open-sea and FRDVWDO ]RQH ZHUH ¿UVW GH¿QHG E\ +(/&20 only in 2013 (J. Kaitaranta, Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission, personal communication; HELCOM 2009; HELCOM 2014), they were not exactly identical in Papers III, IV (submitted, 2015, respectively) to those applied in Paper I (2012), where the division between the coastal and open sea was estimated by the authors. The difference was considered to KDYHDVLJQL¿FDQWHIIHFWRQO\WKHVSDWLDOFRQWH[W of the Gulf of Riga, where the shallow northern SDUWZDVQRWGH¿QHGFRDVWDOEHIRUH$VD precaution, the long-term time-series of Paper I Regression analysis Modelling Assessment tool X X X X X X were updated with the new sub-basin division, including additional data from 2011-2015. Also less important changes, such as renaming the Bornholm Basin as Bornholm Sea, were introduced in 2013 (J. Kaitaranta, Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission, personal communication; HELCOM 2009; HELCOM 2014). The HELCOM sub-basin division, originally designed for assessment purposes, was considered to be useful in a long-term study, where monitoring was not restricted to constant stations. The division of the Baltic Sea into smaller units, which takes into account most of the 19 spatial gradients affecting eutrophication-related parameters, and relies on extensive expert ZRUN ZDV WDNHQ WR EH VXI¿FLHQWO\ KDUPRQLous. Some exceptions, with chlorophyll-a and CDOM gradients within sub-basins potentially causing gradients in Secchi depth, were identi¿HG,QWKHVHDUHDVVSDWLDOO\ELDVHGPRQLWRULQJ would have the potential to result in a biased outcome. Interpolation maps were used to examine the possible spatial gradients within the open-sea assessment units (Paper I). In the study on Finnish coastal zone (Paper II), where monitoring was restricted to consistent stations, a station-wise analysis was applied. In these areas, the varying land-sea interplay and bottom topography affect hydrographical as well as biochemical conditions to the extent that interpolating data between stations was not found to be an ideal solution. In order to make generalizations and interpret the results, each station was additionally assigned to a HELCOM sub-basin. er, accompanying the box-and-whiskers -plots, the method was useful. The century-long open-sea dataset was extensive, although the number of observations varied and periods with missing data occurred. In this type of a situation, temporal changes could EHLGHQWL¿HGWKURXJK¿WWLQJDORFDOO\ZHLJKWHG scatterplot smoothing (LOESS) curve (Paper I). The approach was able to detect non-linear FKDQJHEXWGLGQRWUHTXLUHWKHVSHFL¿FDWLRQRID function, and as a consequence, did not provide a quantitative estimate of change. It however enabled overcoming gaps in data, and through WKH FRQ¿GHQFH LQWHUYDO DOVR LQFRUSRUDWHG WKH subsequent uncertainty caused into the result. A clear quantitative signal of change in opensea Secchi depth was achieved by comparing time-periods (Student’s t-test). This approach relies on the assumption of linear change between the compared periods. The periods were therefore chosen to represent levels of minimum and maximum Secchi depth, determined through visual inspection of the LOESS-curves. Temporal change The application of annual box-and-whisker plots, showing the yearly median, percentiles and outliers, was a simple approach for visualizing change and variation in Secchi depth (Paper II). The method made no expectations on normality, and presented explicitly the variation as well as the possible gaps in the data. It also facilitated the detection of “breaking points”. It was found to be especially suitable for interpreting the Finnish coastal data, which was regularly monitored, yet scarce at certain stations. No generalizations on the development of Secchi depth were however provided by this approach. An extremely generalizing method, applied together with the box-and-whisker plots on Secchi depth at the Finnish coastal stations, was trend analysis (Paper II). The method was found appropriate when consistent long-term change was expected and searched for. It was however not able to detect a trend in the case of scarce data. Furthermore, it assumed linearity, and was thus not optimal at stations where reverse or non-linear trends might have occurred. Howev20 Estimating relationship with other parameters The dependence between Secchi depth and the variables expected to affect light attenuation in the coastal zone was investigated from the Finnish long-term data (Paper II). Consistent long-term monitoring had been conducted for chlorophyll-a, TOC and dissolved iron, and their correlation to Secchi depth was tested. An additional relevant parameter in the coastal zone, total suspended inorganic matter, had WR EH OHIW RXW RI WKH VWXG\ GXH WR VLJQL¿FDQW changes in sampling methodology. The Partial Pearson’s method was chosen for investigations on correlation, in order to discard the possible effect of multiple correlations between more than one parameter. The disadvantage of using this approach was its ability to detect only linear relationships. Examinations of correlation matrices did not lead to suspect non-linear dependences of Secchi depth to TOC or iron, though non-linear relationships seemed to occur between Secchi depth and chlorophyll-a. The relationship of Secchi depth and chlorophyll-a in the open sea areas were described through non-linear regression of maximum values (Paper I). The use of maximum values DOORZHG¿OWHULQJRXWWKHVLWXDWLRQVZKHUH6HFFKL depth was affected by multiple parameters, and helped to distinguish the situations with clear dependence only between the two parameters. The bio-optical model A bio-optical model setup was constructed, in order to describe the relationship of Secchi depth and the main constituents affecting light attenuation in the open sea: chlorophyll-a and CDOM (Paper III; Figure 2-2). The setup consisted of several steps. In-water optical measurements were used as input parameters to a generic optical model, which produced outcome suitable for the radiative transfer model. The latter model was able to describe the path of radiation from above the surface to the depth where the white disk disappears from sight, WDNLQJLQWRDFFRXQWUHÀHFWLRQDEVRUSWLRQDQG scattering properties of the water at different depths. In the third step, the in-water optical measurements were applied to calibrate the outcome of the radiative transfer model. The three steps were performed separately for the spring (April) and summer (July-August) periods. BIO-OPTICAL MODEL spring In-water opƟcal measurements 2008-2011 summer Generalizing Generalizing model opƟcal properƟes Step 1 spring summer RadiaƟve transfer model RadiaƟve transfer Step 2 spring Model calibraƟon Model calibraƟon summer Step 3 Modelled Secchi depth ... Monitoring data 1972-2011 spring, basin 2 summer, basin 2 spring, basin 1 ValidaƟon of ValidaƟon of model output ValidaƟon of model output ValidaƟon of summer, basin 1 model output AdjusƟng model output model output Historically adjusted modelled Secchi depth Figure 2-2. The bio-optical model setup which was followed by adjustment based on historical monitoring data. Adapted from Paper III. 21 7KH¿QDORXWFRPHRIWKHWKUHHPRGHOVWHSV the so-called modelled Secchi depth, was evaluated against monitoring data from 1972-2012, containing simultaneous observations of Secchi depth and chlorophyll-a near the surface. In the absence of corresponding measurements of &'20FRQVWDQWEDVLQVSHFL¿F&'20DEVRUStion values were used. These values were adopted for the southern areas from a study conducted by Stedmon et al. (2000), and for the central and northern areas from a study conducted by Ylöstalo et al. (P. Ylöstalo, J. Seppälä and S. Kaitala, Finnish Environment Institute, pers. FRPP6XEEDVLQVSHFL¿FUHJUHVVLRQPRGHOV based on the evaluation were used to adjust the model outcome, in order to inline it with the historical monitoring data. The HELCOM Eutrophication Assessment Tool (HEAT) The Secchi depth indicator results were calculated and subsequently combined to results of other indicators, in order to perform an overall eutrophication assessment (Paper IV). This was done using a hierarchical framework, the HELCOM Eutrophication Assessment Tool (HEAT; Andersen et al. 2011), that allowed the implementation of the EU Marine Framework Directive (Anonymous 2008, 2010) requirements into a quantitative multi-parametric status assessment. The tool was based on weighted averaging and determination through worst status (e.g. the one-out-all-out approach). 6XEEDVLQ VSHFL¿F LQGLFDWRU UHVXOWV 6WHS 1 in Figure 2-3) included the estimated level DW D SUHGH¿QHG DVVHVVPHQW SHULRG (6 UHSresented in the study by the average summer (June-September) value in 2007-2011. The actual indicator status was expressed through the eutrophication ratio (ER). For indicators responding negatively to eutrophication pressures, as Secchi depth does, ER was calculated DVDUDWLREHWZHHQWKHEDVLQVSHFL¿FHQYLURQmental target and ES. An indicator reaching it’s environmental target resulted with a ER equal to or above one. To perform the assessment, Secchi depth was combined with four other eutrophication 22 indicators, namely dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP), chlorophyll-a and oxygen debt (Paper IV). The indicators were aggregated into groups (Step 2 in Figure 2-3). The groups were constructed to H[SUHVVWKHVHJPHQWHGGH¿QLWLRQRIHXWURSKLFDtion (Figure 1-2), excluding allochthonous eutrophication in lack of suitable indicators. In the HELCOM eutrophication status assessment, Secchi depth was included to autochthonous eutrophication, together with chlorophyll-a (Figure 2-3a). An alternative interpretation of including Secchi depth to indirect eutrophication, along with oxygen debt, was tested as well (Figure 2-3B). At the lower level of hierarchy, weighted averaging was applied, to allow indicators in the same aggregation group to outweigh each other when their outcomes differed. The outcome of each aggregation group could EHFODVVL¿HGWREHLQ*RRG(QYLURQPHQWDO6WDWXV*(6ZKHQWKHDYHUDJH(5 Finally, the worst outcome of the three aggregation groups determined the overall eutrophication status (Step 3 in Figure 2-3). This so-called one-out-all-out principle was applied here at the highest hierarchical level of the assessment. The overall eutrophication status was derived separately for each sub-basin, and clasVL¿HGWRH[SUHVV*(6ZKHQ(5 3 Results 3.1 Development of Secchi depth in the open sea (Paper I) In the beginning of the 20th century (1905 – 1909), the average summer-time Secchi depth was 7.9 – 9.4 m in all open-sea sub-basins except the Gulf of Riga (4.3 m). No clear spatial trend could be distinguished. The sub-basins with highest levels were the Northern Baltic Proper (9.4 m) and Bothnian Sea (9.1 m); though also the southern areas, the Arkona Sea (8.5 m) and Bornholm Sea (8.8 m) expressed high levels. In the open sub-basins, summer-time Secchi depth decreased 14 – 44 % during the last 100 years. Between the early 1900’s (1905 – 1909) A STEP 1: Indicators DIN DIP Chlorophyll-a Causal eutrophicaƟon STEP 2: AggregaƟon STEP 3: Assessment Secchi depth Autochthonous eutrophicaƟon Oxygen debt Indirect eutrophicaƟon OVERALL EUTROPHICATION STATUS B STEP 1: Indicators STEP 2: AggregaƟon STEP 3: Assessment DIN Causal eutrophicaƟon DIP Chlorophyll-a Secchi depth Autochthonous eutrophicaƟon Oxygen dept Indirect eutrophicaƟon OVERALL EUTROPHICATION STATUS Figure 2-3. Two optional ways of applying the Secchi depth indicator in an aggregation theme, depending on how it is interpreted to express eutrophication. The indicators: DIN = dissolved inorganic nitrogen concentration (winter, surface), DIP = dissolved inorganic phosphorus concentration (winter, surface), chlorophyll-a concentration (summer, surface), Secchi depth (summer), oxygen debt (annual). Adapted from Paper IV. and the early 2000’s (2005 – 2009), a decrease of 1.2 – 4.0 m, averaging 0.012 – 0.040 m y-1, was observed in most open-sea sub-basins. The decrease was most pronounced in the northern areas: the Northern Baltic Proper, Bothnian Bay, Gulf of Finland and Bothnian Sea; but clear also in the Western Gotland Basin, Eastern Gotland Basin, Bornholm Sea and Arkona Sea (Table 1 in Paper I; Figure 3-1). 'XHWRVLJQL¿FDQWGDWDJDSVLQWKHHDUO\DQG mid-1900’s, identifying the full development of Secchi depth throughout the century was not possible in any of the open-sea areas. Continuous monitoring took place since the 1960’s – 1970’s in most sub-basins, and revealed periods of intense Secchi depth decrease (Paper I; Figure 3-1). This late decrease was most distinct in the Arkona Sea, Bornholm Sea and Eastern Gotland Basin in 1960 – 1980, and in the more northern areas after 1980. Observations from WKH¿UVWKDOIRIWKHFHQWXU\GLVFORVHGKRZHYHU that substantial decrease had taken place already earlier, especially in the northern areas. In the early 21st century (2005 – 2009), the average summer-time Secchi depth was 3.1 – 7.3 m, with a slight decreasing north-eastward gradient. The lowest summer averages were observed in the Gulf of Riga and the Gulf of Finland, 3.1 m and 4.4 m respectively, and the highest values in the Arkona Sea (7.3 m) and Bornholm Sea (6.6 m) (Paper I; Figures 3-1 and 3-2). 3.2 Temporal changes of Secchi depth along the Finnish coast (Paper II) The yearly average Secchi depth varied between 2.2 and 5.9 meters during 1975 – 2011 in the Finnish coastal stations. The highest average values were observed in the western coasts of the Gulf of Finland and in the southwestern 23 Bothnian Bay 20 n =715 Bothnian Sea 20 n =939 Gulf of Finland 20 15 15 15 10 10 10 5 5 5 0 0 0 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 n =514 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Northern Baltic Proper Western Gotland Basin 20 20 n =802 Gulf of Riga 20 15 15 15 10 10 10 5 5 5 0 0 0 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 n =861 20 n =1535 Eastern Gotland Basin 20 15 15 15 10 10 10 5 5 5 0 0 0 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 n =741 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Bornholm Sea Arkona Sea 20 n =593 n =1139 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Figure 3-1. Long-term development of summer-time (June to September) Secchi depth in the Baltic sub-basins between 1903 and 2015. A LOESS curve with 95% confidence intervals (solid black lines) is fitted to the data. The number of observations (n) is given in the upper left corner of each plot. From Paper I, updated to 2015. Archipelago Sea. The lowest values were observed in the inner parts of the Archipelago Sea and in the Bothnian Sea (Paper II). Between 1985 and 2011, trends could not be detected in more than half of the coastal staWLRQV:KHUHFOHDUDQGVLJQL¿FDQWWUHQGVZHUH found, however, they were consistent within the basin: in the Archipelago Sea, Secchi depth 24 decreased, whereas in the coastal Bothnian Sea, Quark and the Bothnian Bay, it increased. The strongest increasing trends were found in the northern stations of the Bothnian Sea (Paper II). No clear non-linear patterns in the development of Secchi depth were detected in the Gulf of Finland (Figure 3-3). An intense period of decrease was observed in stations from the Ar- 65°00’ 65°00’ 64°00’ 64°00’ 63°00’ 63°00’ 62°00’ 62°00’ 61°00’ 61°00’ 60°00’ 60°00’ 59°00’ 59°00’ 58°00’ 58°00’ 57°00’ 57°00’ 56°00’ 56°00’ 55°00’ 55°00’ 54°00’ 54°00’ 12°00’ 14°00’ 16°00’ 18°00’ 20°00’ 22°00’ 24°00’ 26°00’ 28°00’ 30°00’ 12°00’ 14°00’ 16°00’ 18°00’ 20°00’ 22°00’ 24°00’ 26°00’ 28°00’ 30°00’ Secchi (m) 65°00’ 65°00’ 64°00’ 64°00’ 16 63°00’ 63°00’ 14 62°00’ 62°00’ 12 61°00’ 61°00’ 60°00’ 60°00’ 59°00’ 59°00’ 58°00’ 58°00’ 57°00’ 57°00’ 56°00’ 56°00’ 55°00’ 55°00’ 10 8 6 4 2 0 54°00’ 54°00’ 12°00’ 14°00’ 16°00’ 18°00’ 20°00’ 22°00’ 24°00’ 26°00’ 28°00’ 30°00’ 12°00’ 14°00’ 16°00’ 18°00’ 20°00’ 22°00’ 24°00’ 26°00’ 28°00’ 30°00’ Figure 3-2. Spatial variation of summer-time (June to September) Secchi depth (meters, m) in the open Baltic Sea in (A) 1905-09, (B) 1930-34, (C) 1971-75 and (D) 2005-09. The colors used to refer to different Secchi depths are indicated in the scale bar. The sites of the observations are marked with crosses and large areas with missing data are left blank. From paper I chipelago Sea, from the early 1980’s to the late 1990’s. In the northern Bothnian Sea and the southern Quark, the increasing trend in 1985 – 2010 was actually lead by a clear period of decrease between 1976 – 1985, but this was not observed in any of the other Bothnian Sea, Quark or Bothnian Bay stations. 3.3 Changes in Secchi depth in relation to other parameters (Papers I, II) $VLJQL¿FDQWQHJDWLYHFRUUHODWLRQEHWZHHQ6HFchi depth and chlorophyll-a was found at 12 of the 20 coastal stations. The correlation varied between -0.22 and -0.69, and strong correlations (exceeding -0.40) were found in all basins H[FHSWWKH4XDUN3DSHU,,$VLJQL¿FDQWWUHQG in chlorophyll-aZDVREVHUYHGRQO\DW¿YHRI the 20 stations, but in three of these it was ac25 Secchi depth (m) GOF-1 GOF-2 10 10 8 8 8 6 6 6 4 4 4 2 2 2 0 0 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 Secchi depth (m) 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 GOF-5 GOF-6 10 10 10 8 8 8 6 6 6 4 4 4 2 2 2 0 0 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 0 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 ARC-1 Secchi depth (m) 0 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 GOF-4 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 ARC-2 ARC-3 10 10 10 8 8 8 6 6 6 4 4 4 2 2 2 0 0 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 0 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 ARC-4 Secchi depth (m) GOF-3 10 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 ARC-5 ARC-6 10 10 10 8 8 8 6 6 6 4 4 4 2 2 2 0 0 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 26 0 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 Secchi depth (m) BS-1 BS-2 10 10 8 8 8 6 6 6 4 4 4 2 2 2 0 0 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 Secchi depth (m) 0 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 QU-1 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 BB-1 QU-2 10 10 10 8 8 8 6 6 6 4 4 4 2 2 2 0 0 0 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 BB-2 Secchi depth (m) BS-3 10 10 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 BB-3 0 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 Figure 3-3. Secchi depth (m) in the Finnish coastal stations, measured during the months June-September. The locations of the stations are presented in Paper II (GOF = Gulf of Finland, ARC = Archipelago Sea, BS = Bothnian Sea, QU = Quark, BB = Bothnian Bay). The line is set at the median, box includes 50% of the observations, whiskers include 75% of the observations and circles express the observation falling outside the 75% range. Note that early years prior to 1985 were not included in the trend analysis presented in Paper II. 27 FRPSDQLHGE\DVLJQL¿FDQWRSSRVLQJWUHQGLQ Secchi depth (Paper II). In the open Baltic Sea, chlorophyll-a concentration was regularly low at high levels of Secchi depth, but varied substantially when the levels of Secchi depth were low. When applying QRQOLQHDUUHJUHVVLRQDPRGHO¿WFRXOGQRWEH obtained for the entire data pool. Yet a very JRRG¿WZDVDFKLHYHGZKHQUHODWLQJWKHPD[Lmum chlorophyll-a value to Secchi depth values at 0.5 m intervals (Paper I). This leads to the VXJJHVWLRQWKDWXQGHUVSHFL¿FFLUFXPVWDQFHV Secchi depth is strongly connected to chlorophyll-a, although overall, such a connection is KDUGWR¿QG 6HFFKL GHSWK FRUUHODWHG VLJQL¿FDQWO\ QHJDtively with iron in 12 of the 20 coastal stations. Strong correlations (exceeding -0.40) were found in all basins, but mostly in the Bothnian Bay, Quark and Bothnian Sea. In the latter two, strong negative trends in iron were accompanied with positive trends in Secchi depth. A relationship between Secchi depth and TOC could not be found along the Finnish coast; a VWURQJVLJQL¿FDQWQHJDWLYHFRUUHODWLRQH[FHHGing -0.40) was found only at one station. This implies, that the connection between Secchi depth and TOC is not nearly as strong as the relationship between Secchi depth and chlorophyll-a. 3.4 The Secchi depth indicator (Paper III) The bio-optical modelling exercise revealed, that Secchi depth is sensitive to changes in both chlorophyll-a and CDOM absorption (aCDOM), at the ranges typical to the Baltic Sea (Paper III). This is particularly the case when either of the parameters is at a low level. The effect of chlorophyll-a was stronger in the spring than during summer. The Secchi depth targets agreed by HELCOM, when modelled against the ones for chlorophyll-a, were not aligned (Paper III, Figure 3-4). In all open-sea basins, the Secchi depth target was more ambitious than the chlorophyll-a target. This difference exceeded 1 m Target 8 Simulated target Secchi depth (m) 6 4 2 0 BB BS GoF GoR NBP EGB WGB Bor Ark Figure 3-4. Comparison of the environmental targets of Secchi depth and chlorophyll-a (Paper IV): The actual target for Secchi depth (“Target”, dark bars) and the simulated Secchi depth at the target level of chlorophyll-a (“Simulated target”, light bars), in the open Baltic Sea sub-basins (BB = Bothnian Bay, BS = Bothnian Sea, GoF = Gulf of Finland, GoR = Gulf of Riga, NBP = Northern Baltic Proper, EGB = Eastern Gotland Basin, WGB = Western Gotland Basin, Bor = Bornholm Sea, Ark = Arkona Sea). The simulation could not be done for EGB, due to lacking information on CDOM absorption (aCDOM) in the area. From Paper III. 28 (in Secchi depth) in the Bothnian Bay, Bothnian Sea, Gulf of Riga, Western Gotland Basin, Bornholm Sea and Arkona Sea. The sensitivity of Secchi depth to natural variation in aCDOM (approximated as the variation between the 24.5 to the 97.5 percentiles) was estimated using the optical model. It was highest in the Bothnian Bay, resulting in a variation 1 m in Secchi depth, when modelled at close to the environmental target level. Secchi depth responded with a variation of 0.5 m to natural variation in aCDOM in the Bothnian Sea and Gulf of Finland. In the central and southern sub-basins, no clear effect could be seen (Paper III). 3.5 Secchi depth in the eutrophication assessment According to the HELCOM eutrophication status assessment 2007 – 2011, Secchi depth ES was below the environmental target in most of the open sub-basins (Paper IV; Table 3-1). In the Bothnian Bay, Secchi depth ES was exactly at the target level. The highest divergences between the Secchi depth ES and the target were observed in the main Baltic proper: the Western Gotland Basin, Eastern Gotland Basin and Northern Baltic Proper. Also ER was highest in these sub-basins. The ES’s of the other eutrophication indicators, namely DIN, DIP, chlorophyll-a and oxygen debt, were mostly estimated to be below the targets as well (Table 3-2). The ES’s of Chlorophyll-a and DIN were slightly above the target in the Gulf of Riga, and DIP ES was clearly above the target in the Bothnian Bay. 2[\JHQGHEW(6GHULYHGRQO\LQ¿YHVXEEDsins, was not above the target in any of these. Of the indicators applied, the ER of Secchi depth was highest in the Gulf of Finland and Bothnian Sea; it was not lowest in any of the sub-basins (Paper IV; Table 3-2). Averaging over all the sub-basins, Secchi depth ER was second lowest, when comparing to the ER’s of the other indicators. All nine open Baltic Sea sub-basins were assessed as eutrophied by the HELCOM eutrophication status assessment (Paper IV). In the assessment, Secchi depth was applied as a direct effect of eutrophication (or in other words as an indicator of autochthonous eutrophication, Figure 3-6A). As also other indicators failed to reach the target in all the sub-basins, Secchi depth was never the indicator determining overall eutrophication status. On the other hand, due to the grouping together with chlorophyll-a, which frequently expressed even worse ER, Secchi depth ended up improving the overall eutrophication in eight sub-basins, though never to the extent of reaching GES. The use of Secchi depth as an indicator of indirect eutrophication was also tested (Figure 3-6B). Alterating the aggregation approach did not affect the overall estimate on eutrophication status in terms of reaching GES. When removed from autochthonous effects, Secchi depth was no longer averaged with chlorophyll-a, which decreased the status of autochthonous eutrophication in all sub-basins except the Gulf of Riga. The ER of Secchi depth and oxygen debt were at similar levels, and subsequently the introduction of Secchi depth did not markedly affect the status of indirect eutrophication in the sub-basins where oxygen debt was applied. Introducing Secchi depth to indirect eutrophication had WKHSRWHQWLDORILQFUHDVLQJWKHFRQ¿GHQFHLQWKH assessment of the Bothnian Bay, Bothnian Sea, Gulf of Riga and Bornholm Basin, where no other indicator of indirect eutrophication was available. 29 Table 3-1. The results of the Secchi depth indicator for 2007-2011: estimation of Secchi depth (ES), standard deviation between the assessment years, the commonly agreed environmental target (or GES-boundary), the difference between the target and ES and the eutrophication ratio (ER; ratio between GES boundary and ES). From data used in Paper IV. Secchi depth estimation 2007-2011 (m) Standard deviation between years 2007-2011 (m) Target (ET, m) Difference betw. estimation and target (m) Secchi depth eutrophication ratio (ER) Arkona Sea 5.8 0.9 7.2 -1.4 1.24 Bornholm Sea 5.6 0.5 7.1 -1.5 1.29 Eastern Gotland Basin 6.0 0.7 7.6 -1.6 1.27 Western Gotland Basin 5.7 0.8 8.4 -2.7 1.47 Northern Baltic Proper 5.5 0.3 7.1 -1.6 1.29 Gulf of Riga 4.0 0.6 5.0 -1.0 1.25 Gulf of Finland 4.8 0.5 5.5 -0.7 1.15 Bothnian Sea 6.5 0.6 6.8 -0.3 1.05 Bothnian Bay 5.8 0.4 5.8 0.0 1.00 Sub-basin Table 3-2. The eutrophication ratios (ER) for the indicators applied in the eutrophication status assessment 2007 – 2011. ER ≤ 1 (marked in bold) indicates that the target has been met and that the indicator is in good status. From data used in Paper IV. Sub-basin Secchi depth Chlorophyll-a DIN DIP Arkona Sea 1.24 1.48 1.29 1.72 Bornholm Sea 1.29 2.07 1.19 2.02 1.12 Eastern Gotland Basin 1.27 1.72 1.32 1.86 1.22 Western Gotland Basin 1.47 2.35 1.41 1.76 1.22 1.22 Northern Baltic Proper 1.29 1.69 1.29 1.99 Gulf of Riga 1.25 0.91 0.93 1.54 Gulf of Finland 1.15 1.52 2.07 1.44 Oxygen debt 1.22 Bothnian Sea 1.05 1.66 1.31 1.37 Bothnian Bay 1.00 1.17 1.31 0.64 Average 1.22 1.62 1.35 1.59 1.20 Minimum 1.00 0.91 0.93 0.64 1.12 Maximum 1.47 2.35 2.07 2.02 1.22 30 2.5 A Causal Autochthonous Indirect Secchi depth (m) 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 BB 2.5 BS GOF GOR NBP WGB EGB Bor GOF GOR NBP WGB EGB Bor Ark B Secchi depth (m) 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 BB BS Ark Figure 3-5. Status for causal, autochthonous and indirect eutrophication, expressed as eutrophication ratio (ER). The Secchi depth indicator is applied in alternative ways: A) as direct effect or autochthonous eutrophication and B) as indirect eutrophication (see Fig. 2-3). The overall eutrophication status was determined by the group with highest ER, and Good Environmental Status (GES) is reached when ER ≤ 1 (dashed line). Adapted from Paper IV 31 4 Discussion 4.1 Long-term development of Secchi depth Summer-time Secchi depth decreased during the last century throughout the open Baltic Sea (Paper I). Proportionally this decrease was substantial. The change was generally not linear, varying from strong decrease to slight increase. Especially in the northern areas, the previous three decades was a time of intense decrease. Also in the adjacent seas, the Kattegat-Skagerrak area and North Sea, this was a time of Secchi depth decrease (Dupont and Aksnes 2013, Capuzzo et al. 2015). The timing and intensity of Secchi depth decrease varied in different parts of the Baltic Sea (Papers I, II; Table 4-1). The open Baltic Sea was spatially more homogenous in the early 20th century, with average summer time Secchi depth generally between 8 and 9 m, than at present. The only exception was the Gulf of Riga, represented by very scarce data, expressing low Secchi depth already in the early years of monitoring. In the open Bothnian Bay, and to some extent also the Bothnian Sea, changes were evident already some decades earlier than in the adjacent sub-basins, before the the 1970’s. These were possibly caused by increased input of CDOM, due changes in the drainage area. A barely detectable increase occurred again between the 1970’s and the 1980’s, followed by a decade of intense decrease. Most of the adjacent Finnish coastal sites included in the study showed contradictory simultaneous increase. It is apparent, that at least at that time, the coast and open sea were subject to different processes. Dissolved iron, which was possibly one of the substances determining Secchi depth at the coast, is often ÀRFFXODWHGDQGVXEVHTXHQWO\EXULHGQRWHQWHUing the open sea system in large quantities (Paper II). In the open Bothnian Sea, on the other hand, the increasing chlorophyll-a concentration (Fleming-Lehtinen et al. 2008) probably initiated the decreases in Secchi depth. In the Gulf of Finland, Northern Baltic Proper, Gulf of Riga and the Western Gotland Basin, 32 a drastic decrease in Secchi depth started in the 1980’s. The Archipelago Sea, a coastal area adjacent to the Northern Baltic Proper and the Gulf of Finland, showed similar trends. During this period, the frequency and intensity of cyanobacterial blooms increased as well (Finni et al. 2001, Suikkanen et al. 2007, Kahru 2014), probably being the main cause of the change in water clarity. Secchi depth ceased to decrease in the southern Baltic sub-basins (Arkona Sea, Bornholm Basin and to some extent also the Eastern Gotland Basin) in the 1980’s, and even increased thereafter (Paper I). A similar pattern was observed in the North Sea by Dupont and Aksnes (2013). 4.2 The relationship of Secchi depth and eutrophication An increase in autotrophic biomass (measured as chlorophyll-a concentration or phytoplankton biomass) coinciding with the long-term decrease in Secchi depth was observed throughout the Baltic Sea (Wasmund and Uhlig 2003, Fleming-Lehtinen et al. 2008,). This supports the assumption, that changes in Secchi depth were a subsequence of phytoplankton increase in many areas. This was witnessed in the open sea as dependence on chlorophyll-a concentration, both through regression models (Paper I) and bio-optical simulation models (Paper III). In coastal areas, it was shown through correlations in long-term data (Paper II). As a result of sensitivity to phytoplankton, Secchi depth can EHPRWLYDWHGWREHVLJQL¿FDQWO\OLQNHGWRDXtochthonous eutrophication, even in the Baltic Sea (Figure 4-1). Baltic Sea Secchi depth was shown to be strongly affected also by concentrations of CDOM, causing increased absorption of light (Paper III). Dissolved organic matter may be partly produced autochthonously by phytoplankton or heterotrophic organisms (Hoikkala et al. 2015). The magnitude of this eutrophication-related fraction of CDOM should be resolved, when applying Secchi depth as an environmental indicator. 33 Gulf of Finland, coastal Gulf of Finland, open Northern Baltic Proper, open Archipelago Sea Bothnian Sea and S Quark, coastal Bothnian Sea, open Bothnian Bay and N Quark, coastal Bothnian Bay, open Year 1920 1940 1960 Dissolved iron .........͘͘͘͘͘ќ͘͘͘͘͘...... …..͙͙͘͘͘͘њ ............. ……….͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘њ……................ ....................͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘ќ͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘.................................... ..........͘͘͘͘њ͘͘͘͘͘͘͘..... ͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘ќ͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘ PAPER II PAPER II Secchi depth TOC Fleming-Lehtinen et al. 2008 PAPER I Fleming-Lehtinen et al. 2008 PAPER I PAPER II PAPER II PAPER II PAPER II PAPER II Fleming-Lehtinen et al. 2008 PAPER I PAPER II PAPER II PAPER II PAPER I Reference Chlorophyll-a Secchi depth Chlorophyll-a Secchi depth TOC Secchi depth ........͘͘͘͘͘͘ќ͘͘͘͘͘͘...... ……͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘ќ͘͘͘͘͘͘..... Dissolved iron .........͘͘͘͘͘ќ͘͘͘͘͘͘͘..... Chlorophyll-a Secchi depth .........͘͘͘͘͘њ͘͘͘͘͘͘...... …..͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘њ͘͘͘......... Chlorophyll-a ............͘͘њ…..…..... Secchi depth TOC Secchi depth ………͙͘͘͘͘њ ........... Secchi depth Parameter ........͘͘͘͘͘͘͘њ͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘ 2000 .........͘͘͘͘͘͘ќ͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘ 1980 ͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘ќ͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘ .........͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘ќ͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘͘ 1900 Table 4-1. Reported periods of increase (upward arrow with dots) or decrease (downward arrow with dots) of Secchi depth and parameters expected to contribute to water clarity, based on monitoring data. Red indicates development that parallel to decreasing water transparency, while green indicates development that is parallel to increasing water transparency. The coastal and open-sea areas adjacent to each other are grouped together (map in Figure 2-1). TOC = total organic carbon concentration, N = northern, S = southern, open = open sea. In the Baltic Sea, CDOM is to a large extent derived from land (Sandberg et al. 2004, Alling et al. 2008, Kulinski & Pempkowiak 2011, Hoikkala et al 2015). The input of organic matter to the sea is particularly strong (Asmala 2012, Räike et al. 2015), and increase of water color in the major rivers discharging to the sea has been documented (Kritzberg and Ekström 2012). It is thus probable, that Secchi depth, through the CDOM component, has an increasing allochthonous component. Yet it is not a practical indicator of allochthonous eutrophication, if a large fraction of terrigenous carbon compounds are colorless, and the relationship between CDOM and terrigenous organic carbon concentration vary spatially and temporally (Asmala et al. 2012, Harvey et al. 2015). Dissolved iron has been shown to have an LQÀXHQFH RQ 6HFFKL GHSWK .RUWHODLQHQ HW DO 1986; Kritzberg and Ekström 2012). This was probably the case also in the coastal Bothnian Bay, Quark and Bothnian Sea, where simultaneRXVFRQWUDGLFWLQJWUHQGVDQGVLJQL¿FDQWVWURQJ negative correlations were found (Paper II). Dissolved iron as well as suspended particles are mainly land-driven, or released from the bottom through mixing. They are expected to settle relatively close to their sources – although some uncertainty on the extent of settling still remains (Gustafsson et al. 2000, Krachler et al. 2015). In optical studies, iron is considered as part of CDOM, even if it is dissolved in an inorganic form (Paper III). It cannot be considered to be an eutrophication-related constituent of Secchi depth. Unfortunately, iron could not be distinguished from the organic fraction of CDOM in our bio-optical modelling exercise. Capuzzo et al. (2015) proposed that in the North Sea, decrease in Secchi depth was mainly due to increase in suspended matter, resulting from increased benthic release. This is not a probable scenario in the open Baltic Sea, which is known to exhibit a low ratio of suspended inorganic matter to chlorophyll-a (Paper III, Babin et al. 2003, Håkanson and Eckhéll 2005, Kratzer et al. 2008). The coastal areas may however be subject to long-term changes in suspended non-planktonic matter (Harvey 2015), introducing an abiotic, non-eutrophicaWLRQUHODWHGDQG\HWXQTXDQWL¿HGFRPSRQHQWWR Secchi depth. In summary, Secchi depth is a complex parameter, potentially expressing autochthonous and allochthonous eutrophication as well as abiotic factors (Figure 4-1). Through its role as the link between phytoplankton increase and ALLOCHTHONOUS EUTROPHICATION BalƟc Sea EutrophicaƟon Assessment (HELCOM 2009, 2013) SECCHI DEPTH AUTOCHTHONOUS EUTROPHICATION INDIRECT EUTROPHICATION CAUSATIVE EUTROPHICATION Figure 4-1. A schematic figure expressing the eutrophication categories presented in Figure 1-2 (introduction), and Secchi depth in relation to them. The arrows indicate causative relationships. The segments included in the Baltic Sea eutrophication assessment, discussed in Chapter 2.9, are indicated separately. 34 communities suffering from changes in the light climate, it may also be regarded to express indirect eutrophication (Chapter 1.2). 3. 'H¿QLQJWKHLQGLFDWRU The indicator concept, as it is referred to in literature, is vague and manifold, and indicators DUHGLYHUVH$FDWHJRULFDOGH¿QLWLRQRILQGLFDtor features would be helpful for the experts applying them, for example when attempting to distinguish whether or not an indicator is VXLWDEOHIRUDVSHFL¿FSXUSRVHDQGZKHWKHULW can be combined with other indicators into an DVVHVVPHQW %HORZ LV DQ HIIRUW WR GH¿QH DQG characterize the Secchi depth indicator (Table 4-2). The essential features listed in Chapter 1.3 are included along. 1. 2. Secchi depth is a quantitative indicator. The most distinguishable feature from the user’s point of view is whether the indicator is quantitative or descriptive. Descriptive indicators are useful in explaining change, but they are not practical for assessing status. Quantitative indicators may be set with precise targets or reference levels and the LQGLFDWRUVWDWXVIRUDVSHFL¿FWLPHSHULRG may be estimated (Paper IV). In addition to being a quantitative indicator, Secchi depth is composite, in the sense that it combines the effect of several other measurable parameters in the water column (Papers I, II, III). Each of these parameters has their own, sometimes even contradicting role in relation to the eutrophication process. Secchi depth has been applied as a proxy of phytoplankton biomass or chlorophyll-a (Boyce et al. 2012), which may work well in oceanic waters. However, in optically complex waters such as the Baltic Sea, other constituents with non-anthropogenic origin affect Secchi depth as well. The role of the constituents may vary both in space and time, and cause challenges in interpreting change in indicator status. The relationship of Secchi depth to the various optical constituents must be resolved before applying the indicator in optically 4. 5. 6. complex waters, in order to ensure indicaWRU¿GHOLW\-DPHV Though composite, Secchi depth is still directly measurable (Papers I, II). As opposed to computable indicators, such as oxygen debt (Carstensen et al. 2014) and intensity of spring bloom (Fleming & Kaitala 2006), or multiparametric indeces, observations made at sea may, after simSOH¿OWHULQJDQGDYHUDJLQJSURFHGXUHVEH directly applied to provide the indicator estimate. Secchi depth has a numerically negative response to increasing eutrophication. In other words, it is expected to decrease along with deteriorating eutrophication status. The response is not necessarily linear, as accelerating decrease is expected along with increasing primary production (Papers I, III). When applied in an assessment together with indicators responding positively to increasing eutrophication, this should be taken into account. One special characteristic of Secchi depth and water clarity in general is that it is commonly observable by the layman. This distinguishes it from similar measurable and quantitative indicators such as dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP) or chlorophyll-a: Secchi depth can be experienced. It is in fact one of the signs of eutrophication most commonly distinguished among the general public, and has therefor EHHQDSSOLHGZKHQDQDO\]LQJWKHEHQH¿WV of nutrient mitigation (Kosenius 2010). In addition to being easily observable, Secchi depth can be estimated to be also commonly understandable, both as an indicator and through its role in the system. Both causes and consequences of change are easily associated by the public. Chlorophyll-a, on the other hand, is an example of an indicator that is not commonly observable, but can be quickly explained in a way that it is understandable. An opposite example is oxygen debt, which, with its complicated methodology and indirect role in eutrophication, falls in the category of being understood only by experts. 35 7. The ambiguous origin of change in indicator status is what complicates the use of the Secchi depth indicator. Due to the composite nature of the indicator, with different optical constituents affecting the outcome, also the causal link from human actions to change in indicator status varies in space and time. When chlorophyll-a dominates the attenuation of light, the anthropogenic link is stronger than when attenuation is caused by CDOM, suspended inorganic matter or dissolved iron (Papers I, III). For management purposes, the link to human-induced nutrient pressures should be established in a satisfactory way, before applying the indicator in an assessment. 8. As a result of its quantitative nature, historical monitoring time-series and relatively good suitability for use in ecological models (Meier et al. 2012), ecological targets for Secchi depth have been established in many areas. In the Baltic Sea, common environmental targets have been agreed for open-sea areas by the coastal states (HELCOM 2014), and national targets have been set for coastal areas. Together with estimations of present level (ES), the targets enable the use of Secchi depth in quantitative assessments (Paper IV). 9. The geographical applicability of Secchi depth varies regionally, based on differing origin of change in indicator status. This does not restrict the use of Secchi depth in different geographical areas, but corrections to the indicator calculation or use in assessment are required (Papers III, IV). 10. In the Baltic Sea, adequate documentation of the Secchi depth indicator exists, on the VFLHQWL¿FEDFNJURXQG3DSHUV,,,,DVZHOO as on the indicator approach and update procedures (HELCOM 2015b). The documentation is essential for achieving transparent status evaluations, which in turn is a prerequisite for commitment of the parties applying the assessment. 11. The practical use of an indicator is dependent on existing monitoring. Secchi depth is included in all national monitoring programmes in the Baltic Sea, and is 36 frequently monitored and reported (HELCOM 2015a). Besides traditional in-situ monitoring, there is a strong potential for WKHXVHRIQRYHOFRVWHI¿FLHQWPRQLWRULQJ methods (Platt and Sathyendranath 2012). In summary, Secchi depth is a commonly used indicator, often supported by long monitoring datasets reaching back to a time unaffected by eutrophication. It is easily understandable and can be experienced – a property that makes it extremely attractive. Technically, it is a relatively advanced indicator: quantitative, commonly monitored, includes ecological targets and a well documented methodology. On the other hand, although apparently simple to associate, it composite, and requires substantial FDVHVSHFL¿FLQYHVWLJDWLRQVEHIRUHLWVH[DFWUROH LQ WKH HXWURSKLFDWLRQ SURFHVV FDQ EH GH¿QHG (Table 4-2). 4.4 Assessing eutrophication with the Secchi depth indicator The modeling exercise demonstrated, that the environmental targets set for Secchi depth were stricter than those set for chlorophyll-a (Paper III, Chapter 3.4). The reason behind this discrepancy could not be solved; it may be a FRQVHTXHQFHRILQVXI¿FLHQWKLVWRULFDOLQIRUPDtion available for the chlorophyll-a target-setting (HELCOM 2013b, 2014), or an effect of long-term changes in the relationships of the parameters. In the eutrophication status assessment for the Baltic Sea, Secchi depth ES was estimated to be below the environmental target in eight of the nine sub-basins; the target was (barely) reached only in the Bothnian Bay (Paper IV, Table 3-1). Secchi depth did not differ in this sense much from the other indicators, their ES below the target in most of the sub-basins. Secchi depth did however express a lower ER than chlorophyll-a, DIN and DIP, in average. In all but two sub-basins, chlorophyll-a was estimated to be in worse status than Secchi depth (when comparing ER). The fact that Secchi depth ER showed small variation compared to some of the other indica- Table 4-2. Features of the Secchi depth indicator used in the Baltic Sea. 1. Quantifiable / descriptive XപറQuantitative Descriptive 2. Complicity Explicit XപറComposite 3. Procedure XപറMeasurable Computable 4. Numerical response to increasing eutrophication XപറNegative 5. Commonly observable XപറChange can be easily observed in nature by a layman Positive Change can be observed in nature only by an expert Change cannot be seen by the bare eye 6. Commonly understandable XപThe indicator and it’s role in the system are easily understood by layman. The indicator and/or it’s role in the system is not simple, but can be explained to a layman in an understandable way. RThe indicator and/or it’s role in the system is complicated and can be understood only by experts 7. Origin of change Anthropogenic dominating XപറBoth anthopogenic and non-anthropogenic 8. Ecological targets / reference levels XപറData-based with strong certainty (1940 or earlier) Data-based with weak certainty XപറHindcast modeling Process modeling Expert evaluation No targets exist 9. Geographical applicability Same applicability in all geographical areas XപറApplicable in all geographical areas but role differs Not applicable in all geographical areas 10. Documentation XപറScientifically documented approach and well described procedure for update Scientifically documented approach, but update procedure is not documented to ensure repeatability Approach not scientifically documented 11. Monitoring XപറMonitored throughout Baltic Sea Monitored in some areas No regular monitoring tors, was partly a methodological consequence: in cases where an indicator responds negatively to increased eutrophication pressure, as Secchi depth does, ER behaves exponentially, instead of linearly, in relation to increasing pressure (Andersen et al. 2011). In practice, this leads to smaller variation in the Secchi depth ER compared to the ER of the indicators responding positively to eutrophication pressure, when ES is above or relatively close to the target (ie. ER is below or relatively close to 1). This property of the Secchi depth indicator downscaled the effect of Secchi depth when applying it together with positively responding indicators in the HEAT 3.0 tool. It subsequently overruled the disharmony in target-setting, proposed earlier (Paper III). In the HELCOM eutrophication status assessment, Secchi depth was aggregated together with chlorophyll-a, as autochthonous eutrophLFDWLRQVHHFKDSWHUDQG¿JXUH$,QDOO of the nine sub-basins, autochthonous eutrophication was estimated to be below GES, and in the Bornholm Sea and the Western Gotland Basin, it was the aggregation group expressing worst status. It was not alone, however: with the exception of causal eutrophication in the Bothnian Bay, the other aggregation groups were also below GES in all sub-basins. Naturally, Secchi depth did not end up determining the overall status in any of the sub-basins. 37 In the case of the Baltic Sea, where eutrophication effects are severe and broadly distributed, alterations in the assessment grouping had little effect in the overall result: all sub-basins were estimated to be below GES, whether Secchi depth was grouped as an indicator of autochthonous or indirect eutrophication (Figure 3-5A and 3-5B). Since chlorophyll-a was generally in worst status (when comparing ER), the overall eutrophication status tended to move further below GES when removing Secchi depth from autochthonous eutrophication group (with the exception of the Gulf of Riga). As the number of eutrophication indicators in the assessment was low, and nearly half of the sub-basins had no indicator of indirect eutrophication, including Secchi depth to indirect eutrophication had WKHSRWHQWLDOWRLQFUHDVHDVVHVVPHQWFRQ¿GHQFH This is however an opportunistic approach: the choice of indicator use and grouping must be based on theoretical background. Instead of relocating existing indicators in the assessment tool, introducing new appropriate indicators should be considered. 5 Conclusions Water clarity has decreased in the open Baltic Sea during the last century. This was demonstrated by a 14 – 44 % decrease, revealed by a unique historical dataset of Secchi depth (Paper I). The decrease was especially intense in the northern areas, amounting to 3.3 – 4.0 m (averaging 0.033 – 0.040 m y-1), when comparing summer time averages in 2005 – 2009 to those observed one hundred years earlier. The decrease is proposed to be strongly linked with documented simultaneous decrease in chlorophyll-a concentration (Papers I, III). Secchi depth monitoring has been conducted also in the Finnish coastal areas, since the 1970’s (Paper II). During the last 2.5 decades, clear decreasing trends were detected only in the Archipelago Sea, together with simultaneous opposing trends in chlorophyll-a. Contradictory to the development in adjacent open-sea areas, Secchi depth increased in the coasts of the Bothnian Sea, Quark and Bothnian Bay. 38 This was proposed to be at least partly a consequence of decreased concentrations of dissolved iron in the surface waters near the coast. 6WURQJVLJQL¿FDQWUHODWLRQVKLSVEHWZHHQ6HFFKL depth and TOC were rarely found– indirectly indicating that a large part of coastal organic carbon in the area was colorless. A bio-optical model setup revealed, that Secchi depth in the Baltic Sea is highly sensitive to variation in the amount of phytoplankton (by chlorophyll-a as proxy) and CDOM (Paper III). The relationship to the former motivates the use of Secchi depth as a eutrophication indicator. The latter connection, however, implies the presence both eutrophication- and non-eutrophication-related components. Secchi depth is a commonly applied and well established indicator of eutrophication and water quality in the Baltic Sea. It is commonly understandable and easily experienced, and EHQH¿WV IURP D PRQLWRULQJ KLVWRU\ UHDFKLQJ back to pre-eutrophicated times. It is a technically advanced: it is quantitative, commonly monitored, includes ecological targets and a well-documented methodology. On the other hand, although apparently simple to associate, it is composite, in that it includes signals from several elements. It is often applied together with other indicators, including chlorophyll-a. The modelling exercise revealed, that the environmental targets for Secchi depth, set by the Baltic Sea coastal states via their collaboration through the Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission (HELCOM), were stricter than those set for chlorophyll-a. According to the HELCOM Baltic Sea eutrophication status assessment 2007 – 2011, all open-sea areas of the Baltic Sea were severely affected by eutrophication. This was also shown by the status of the Secchi depth indicator, meeting the environmental target only in the Bothnian Bay. The overall eutrophication assessment was not dominated by the weak status of Secchi depth, as the other eutrophication indicators were also unable to reach their environmental targets in most of the sub-basins. Due to the deteriorated status of all indicators, alterations in the way Secchi depth was applied in the assessment did not affect the general outcome of eutrophication status. Secchi depth was found suitable for expressing eutrophication in optically complex waters such as the Baltic Sea. It is able to quantify several eutrophication-related elements into RQH VLQJOH PHDVXUH UHÀHFWLQJ ERWK DOORFKWonous and autochtonous signals. In this study, we were able distinguish the shares of phytoplankton and CDOM at a large scale. We were, however, not yet able to further identify the elements unrelated to primary production. We would be especially interested in distinguishing the autochthonous signals, related to eg. heterotrophic activity, from the allochtonous ones. In shallow and coastal areas, recognizing also the inorganic fraction is essential when applying the indicator. Due to these restrictions, Secchi depth should not be used alone, as the only indicator measuring eutrophication. Applied WRJHWKHU ZLWK RWKHU LQGLFDWRUV ZLWK VXI¿FLHQW backgroung information, it adds to the certainty of an assessment. 39 References Aarup T. 2002. Transparency of the North Sea and Baltic Sea - a Secchi depth data mining study. Oceanologia 44:323-337. Aas E, Høkedal J Sørensen K. 2014. Secchi depth in the Oslofjord-Skagerrak area: theory, experiments and relationships to other quantities. Ocean Science 10:177-199. Alling V, Humborg C, Mörth C-M, Rahm L, and Pollehne F. 2008. Tracing terrestrial organic matter by d34S and d13C signatures in a subarctic estuary. Limnology and Oceanography 53: 2594-2602. Anonymous. 2000. Directive 2000/60/EC of the European Parliament and of the council of 23 October 2000 establishing a framework for Community action in the field of water policy (Water Framework Directive, WFD). Anonymous. 2008. Directive 2008/56/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 17 June 2008 establishing a framework for community action in the field of marine environmental policy (Marine Strategy Framework Directive, MSFD). Anonymous. 2010. Commission Decision of 1 September 2010 on criteria and methodological standards on good environmental status of marine waters (2010/477/EU). Andersen JH, Aroviita J, Carstensen J, Friberg N, Johnson RK, Kauppila P, Lindegarth M, Murray C and Norling K. 2015. Approaches for integrated assessment of ecological and eutrophication status of surface waters in Nordic Countries. Ambio DOI 10.1007/s13280-0160767-8. Andersen JH, Axe P, Backer H, Carstensen J, Claussen U, Fleming-Lehtinen V, Järvinen M, Kaartokallio H, Knuuttila S, Korpinen S, Laamanen M, LysiakPastuszak E, Martin G, Møhlenberg F, Murray C, Nausch G, Norkko A, Villnäs A. 2011. Getting the measure of eutrophication in the Baltic Sea: towards improved assessment principles and methods. Biogeochemistry 106: 137–156. Andersen JH, Schlüter L and Ærtebjerg G. 2006. Coastal eutrophication: recent developments in definitions and implications for monitoring strategies. Journal of Plankton Research 28:621-628. Asmala E, Stedmon C, and Thomas DN. 2012. Linking CDOM spectral absorption to dissolved organic carbon concentrations and loadings in boreal estuaries. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 111:107-117. Babin M, Stramski D, Ferrari GM, Herve C, Bricaud A, Obolensky G, and Hoepffner N. 2003. Variations in the light absorption coefficients of phytoplankton, non-algal particles, and dissolved organic matter in coastal waters around Europe. Journal of Geophysical Research 108, 3211, doi 10.1029/2001JC000882. Boyce DG, Lewis M and Worm B. 2012. Intergrating global chlorophyll data from 1890 to 2010. Limnology and Oceanography: Methods 10:840-852. Capuzzo E, Stephens D, Silva T, Barry J and Forster RM. 2015. Decrease in water clarity of the southern and central North Sea during the 20th century. Global Change Biology 21:2206-2214. Carlson RE. 1977. A trophic state index for lakes. Limnology and Oceanography 22:361-369. 40 Carstensen J, Andersen JH, Gustafsson BG and Conley DJ. 2014. Deoxygenation of the Baltic Sea during the last century. PNAS 111:5628-5633. Chen Z, Pan D and Bai Y. 2010. Study of coastal water zone ecosystem health in Zhejiang Province based on remote sensing data and GIS. Acta Oceanologica Sinica 29:27-34. Chrost RH and Faust MA. 1983. Organic carbon release by phytoplankton: its composition and utilization by bacterioplankton. Journal of Plankton Research 5:477-493. Constanza R, Norton BG and Haskell BD. 1992. Ecosystem Health. Island Press, Washington D.C., USA. Daan N. 2005. An afterthought: ecosystem metrics and pressure indicators. ICES Journal of Marine Science 62:612-613. Dobiesz NE, Hecky RE, Johnson TB, Sarvala J, Detmers JM, Lehtiniemi M, Rudstam LG, Madenjian CP and Witte F. 2009. Metrics of ecosystem status for large aquatic systems – A global comparison. Journal of Great Lakes Research 36:123-138. Dupont N and Aksnes DL. 2013. Centennial changes in water clarity of the Baltic Sea and the North Sea. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 131:282-289. Ferreira JG, Andersen JH, Borja A, Bricker SB, Campe J, da Silva MC, Garcése E, Heiskanen A-S, Humborg C, Ignatiades L, Lancelot C, Menesguen A, Tett P, Hoepffner N, Claussen U. 2011. Overview of eutrophication indicators to assess environmental status within the European Marine Strategy Framework Directive. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 93:117-131. Finni T, Kononen K, Olsonen R and Wallström K. 2001. The history of cyanobacterial blooms in the Baltic Sea. Ambio 30:172–178. Fleming V and Kaitala S. 2006. Phytoplankton spring bloom intensity index for the Baltic Sea estimated for the years 1992 to 2004. Hydrobiologia 554:57-65. Fleming-Lehtinen V, Laamanen M, Kuosa H, Haahti H, Olsonen R. 2008. Long-term development of inorganic nutrients and chlorophyll a in the open northern Baltic Sea. Ambio 37:86-92. Gallegos CL, Werdell J and McClain CR. 2011. Longterm changes in light scattering in Cesapeake Bay inferred from Secchi depth, light attenuation, and remote sensing measurements. Journal of Geophysical Research 116:1-19. Gray JS. 1992 Eutrophication in the sea. In: Proceedings of the 25th European Marine Biology Symposium (Colombo, G. C., Ferrari, I., Ceccherelli, V. U. & Rossi, R, eds), Olsen & Olsen, Fredensborg, pp. 3-13. Gustafsson Ö, Widerlund A, Andersson PS, Ingri J, Roos P and Ledin A. 2000. Colloid dynamics and transport of major elements through a boreal river – brakish bay mixing zone. Marine Chemistry 71:1-21. Håkanson L, and Eckhéll J. 2005. Suspended particulate matter (SPM) in the Baltic Sea—New empirical data and models. Ecological Modelling 189:130-150. Harvey ET. 2015. Bio-optics, satellite remote sensing and Baltic Sea ecosystems. PhD thesis, Stockholm University. Holmbergs, Malmö, Sweden. Harvey ET, Kratzer S and Andersson A. 2015. Relationships between colored dissolved organic matter and dissolved organic carbon in different coastal gradients of the Baltic Sea. Ambio 44:392-401. HELCOM. 2009. Eutrophication in the Baltic Sea – An integrated thematic assessment of the effects of nutrient enrichment in the Baltic Sea region. Baltic Sea Environment Proceedings 115B. HELCOM. 2013a. HELCOM Monitoring and Assessment Strategy, adopted in 2013. http://www.helcom. fi/action-areas/monitoring-and-assessment/ monitoring-and-assessment-strategy. HELCOM. 2013b. Approaches and methods for eutrophication target setting in the Baltic Sea region. Baltic Sea Environment Proceedings 133. HELCOM. 2014. Eutrophication status of the Baltic Sea – A concise thematic assessment. Baltic Sea Environment Proceedings 143. HELCOM. 2015a. Manual for marine monitoring in the COMBINE programme of HELCOM (last updated in February 2015). http://www.helcom.fi/actionareas/monitoring-and-assessment/manuals-andguidelines/combine-manual/. HELCOM. 2015b. HELCOM Eutrophication Assessment Manual (last updated December 2012). http:// helcom.fi/helcom-at-work/projects/eutro-oper/. Hoikkala L, Kortelainen P, Soinne H and Kuosa H. 2015. Dissolved organic matter in the Baltic Sea. Journal of Marine Systems 142:47–61. Holmes RW. 1970. The Secchi disk in turbid coastal waters. Limnology and Oceanography 15:688-694. Hutchinson GE. 1969. Eutrophication, past and present. In: Eutrophication: causes, consequences, correctives. National Academy of Sciences, Washington D.C., USA. James A. 1978. The value of biological indicators on relation to other parameters of water quality. In: James A and Evison L (eds.). Biological Indicators of Water Quality. John Wiley & Sons. Chichester, UK. Kahru M and Elmgren R. 2014. Satellite detection of multidecadal time series of cyanobacteria accumulations in the Baltic Sea. Biogeosciences Discussions 11:33193364. Karydis M. 2009. Eutrophication assessment of coastal waters based on indicators: a literature review. Global NEST Journal 11:373-390. Kautsky N, Kautsky H, Kautsky U, and Waern M. 1986. Decreased depth penetration of Fucus vesiculosus L. since the 1940s indicates eutrophication of the Baltic Sea. Marine Ecology Progress Series 28:1-8 Kirk JTO. 2011. Light and photosynthesis in aquatic ecosystems, 3rd ed. Cambridge University Press. Kortelainen P, Mannio J, and Pennanen V. 1986. Characteristics of the allochthonous organic matter in Finnish forest lakes and reservoirs. Publications of the Water Research Institute, National Board of Waters, Finland 65. Kosenius A-K. 2010. Heterogeneous preferences for water quality attributes: The case of eutrophication in the Gulf of Finland, Baltic Sea. Ecological Economics 69:528-538. Krachler R , Krachler RF, Wallner G, Hann S, Laux M, Cervantes Recalde MF, Jirsa F, Neubauer E, von der Kammer F, Hofmann T and Keppler K. River-derived humic substances as iron chelators in seawater. Marine Chemistry 174:85-93. Kratzer S. 2000. Bio-optical studies of coastal waters. PhD thesis, University of Wales, Bangor School of Ocean Sciences, Menai Bridge, Anglesey, UK. River-derived humic substances as iron chelators in seawater. Marine Chemistry 174:85-93. Kratzer S, Brockmann C and Moore G. 2008. Using MERIS full resolution data to monitor coastal waters – A case study from Himmelfjärden, a fjord-like bay in the northwestern Baltic Sea. Remote Sensing of Environment 112:2284-2300. Kritzberg ES, and Ekström SM. 2012. Increasing iron concentrations in surface waters - a factor behind brownification? Biogeosciences 9: 1465-1478. Kulinski K, and Pempkowiak J. 2011. The carbon budget of the Baltic Sea. Biogeosciences 8: 3219-3230. Larsson U, Elmgren R, and Wulff F. 1985. Eutrophication and the Baltic Sea: causes and consequences. Ambio 14:9-14. Lewis MR, Kuring N and Yentsch C. 1988. Global patterns of ocean transparency: implications for the new production of the open ocean. Journal of Geophysical Research 93:6847-6856. Lund-Hansen LC. Diffuse attenuation coefficients Kd(PAR) at the estuarine North Sea – Baltic Sea transition: time-series, partitioning, absorption , and scattering. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 61:251-259. Meier M, Müller-Karulis B, Andersson HC, Dieterich C, Eilola K, Gustafsson BG, Höglund A, Hordoir R, Kuznetsov I, Neumann T, Ranjbar Z, Savchuk OP and Schimanke S. 2012. Impact of Climate Change on Ecological Quality Indicators and Biogeochemical Fluxes in the Baltic Sea: A Multi-Model Ensemble Study. Ambio 41:558-573. Naumenko MA. 2007. Spatial distribution and long-term trends of water transparency in Lake Ladoga. Russian Meteorology and Hydrology 32:604-608. Nixon SW. 1995. Coastal marine eutrophication: A definition, social causes and future concern. Ophelia 41:199-219. Nixon SW. 2009. Eutrophication and the macroscope. Hydrobiologia 629:5-19. Preisendorfer RW. 1986. Secchi depth science: Visual optics of natural waters. Limnology and Oceanography 31: 909-926. Raike A, Kortelainen P, Mattson T and Thomas DN. 2015. Long-term trends (1975-2014) in the concentrations and export of carbon from Finnish rivers to the Baltic Sea: organic and inorganic components compared. Aquatic Sciences DOI 10.1007/s00027-015-0451-2 Richardson K and Jørgensen BB. 1996. Eutrophication: definition, history and effects. In: Jørgenssen BB and Richardson K (eds). Eutrophication in coastal marine Ecosystems. Coastal and Estuarine Studies 52. American Geophysical Union, Washington D.C., USA. Sandberg J, Andersson A, Johansson S, and Wikner J. 2004. Pelagic food web structure and carbon budget in the northern Baltic Sea: potential importance of terrigenous carbon. Marine Ecology Progress Series 268: 13-29. 41 Secchi A. 1866. Relazione della Esperienze Fatta a Bordo della Pontificia Pirocorvetta L’lmmacolata Conceziorze per Determinare La Transparenza de1 Mare (Reports on Experiments made on Board the Papal Steam Sloop L’lmmacolata Concezione to Determine the Transparency of the Sea). From Cmdr. A. Cialdi, Sul moto ondoso de1 mare e su le correnti di esso specialment auquelle littorali, 2nd ed. Dep. of the Navy, Office of Chief of Naval Operations, ON1 Transl. A-655, Op-923 M4B (in Italian). Stedmon CA, Markager S, and Kaas H. 2000. Optical properties and signatures of chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) in Danish coastal waters. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 51: 267-278. Steel A and Neuhausser S. 2002. Comparison of methods for measuring visual water clarity. Journal of the North American Benthological Society 21:236-335. 42 Suikkanen S, Laamanen M and Huttunen M. 2007. Longterm changes in summer phytoplankton communities of the open northern Baltic Sea. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 71:580-592. Tett P, Gowen R, Mills D, Fernandes T, Gilpin L, Huxham M, Kennington K, Read P, Service M, Wilkinson M and Malcolm S. 2007. Defining and detecting undesirable disturbance in the context of marine eutrophication. Marine Pollution Bulletin 55:282-297. Tyler JE. 1968. The Secchi disk. Limnology and Oceanography 13:1-6. Wasmund N and Uhlig S. 2003. Phytoplankton trends in the Baltic Sea. ICES Journal of Marine Science 60:177–186
© Copyright 2025 Paperzz