206
07
Tekes
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Update of GIGA-VAMOS – Technology Roadmap
Update of GIGA-VAMOS
– Technology Roadmap
Technology Review 206/2007
Further Information
www.tekes.fi/giga
www.tekes.fi/vamos
Technology Review
The Finnish Funding Agency for Technology and Innovation
Kyllikinportti 2, P.O. Box 69, FIN-00101 Helsinki, Finland
Tel. +358 1060 55000, Fax +358 9 694 9196, E-mail: [email protected]
www.tekes.fi
April 2007
ISSN 1239-758X
ISBN 978-952-457-364-1
Update of GIGA-VAMOS
– Technology Roadmap
Mikael von Hertzen, Juhani Timonen, Pekka Huuhka
Technology Review 206/2007
Update of GIGA-VAMOS
– Technology Roadmap
Mikael von Hertzen
Juhani Timonen
Pekka Huuhka
Oy Swot Consulting Finland Ltd
Technology Review 206/2007
Helsinki 2007
Tekes, the Finnish Funding Agency for Technology and Innovation
Tekes is the main public funding organisation for research and development
(R&D) in Finland. Tekes funds industrial projects as well as projects in research organisations, and especially promotes innovative, risk-intensive
projects. Tekes offers partners from abroad a gateway to the key technology
players in Finland.
Technology programmes – Tekes´ choices for the greatest impact
of R&D funding
Tekes uses technology programmes to allocate its financing, networking
and expert services to areas that are important for business and society.
Programmes are launched in areas of application and technology that are in
line with the focus areas in Tekes’ strategy. Tekes allocates about half the financing granted to companies, universities and research institutes through
technology programmes. Tekes technology programmes have been contributing to changes in the Finnish innovation environment for twenty years.
Copyright Tekes 2007. All rights reserved.
This publication includes materials protected under copyright law, the copyright for which is held by Tekes or a third party. The materials appearing in
publications may not be used for commercial purposes. The contents of
publications are the opinion of the writers and do not represent the official
position of Tekes. Tekes bears no responsibility for any possible damages
arising from their use. The original source must be mentioned when quoting
from the materials.
ISSN 1239-758-X
ISBN 978-952-457-364-1
Page layout: DTPage Oy
Printers: Painotalo Miktor, Helsinki 2007
Foreword
This report presents the results of a project initiated by Tekes, the Finnish Funding Agency for
Technology and Innovation.
As part of an earlier technology programme (NETS – Networks of the Future), the report Roadmap
for Network Technologies and Services was published in 2004. Technological development in the
area concerned is very rapid, and Tekes decided to update the roadmap accordingly. The key target
of this report is to summarise roadmaps related to the development of a very large range of technologies and applications. It is expected to support planning and development in different industries,
as well as to provide stimulating input for discussion and development work. The project is part of
two Tekes programmes: ‘GIGA – Converging Networks 2005–2010’ and ‘VAMOS – Value added
Mobile Solutions 2005–2010’. It addresses both applications and technological angles.
Long-term roadmaps are challenging to create. The markets, user habits, trends, and also various
unpredictable events shape the future in parallel with technological developments. The roadmaps
were given timelines, with reference points of the current state (2007), 2010, and 2015, instead of
just presenting trends. The purpose of this is threefold: first of all, it provides a framework for comparison with the previous roadmap; secondly, timing is always crucial for business decisions; and,
thirdly, we believe that providing firm time estimates will form a stronger basis for further dialogue. A firm time framework also enables easier tracking of key changes as time passes.
The subject addressed is extremely broad. Several industries are covered, and a number of broadband technologies are included; hence, there certainly are areas that could have been handled more
thoroughly. We hope, however, that this report nonetheless provides a good overview of the most
central subjects. In the conclusions, some critical points have been identified, along with potential
business opportunities related to them.
The content of the report is based on a number of publicly available roadmap reports, personal interviews, and a Web-based survey sent to more than 200 persons (with broad international coverage).
We gratefully acknowledge the valuable insight that was provided by all 40 persons who were interviewed individually in the course of this project. A list of these persons is found in Appendix 2.
We likewise wish to acknowledge with gratitude the opinions of the 83 persons who responded to
the online survey, as well as those who participated in the expert workshop. The participants in the
workshop are listed in Appendix 3.
The project was implemented and the report written by Oy Swot Consulting Finland Ltd.
Helsinki, March 2007
Tekes, the Finnish Funding Agency for Technology and Innovation
Contents
Foreword
1 Abstract . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
2 Background and Objectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
3 Project Methodology. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
3.1
3.2
3.3
General Approach to the Project . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
GIGA-VAMOS Roadmap Scope. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Sources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
3.3.1 Publications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
3.3.2 Personal Interviews . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
3.3.3 Web-based Survey . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
3.3.4 Workshop. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
4 VAMOS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.6
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
Traffic and Logistics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
4.2.1 Needs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
4.2.2 Trends and Drivers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
4.2.3 Challenges and Opportunities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
4.2.4 Standardisation and Regulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
4.2.5 Functionalities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
4.2.6 Systems and Technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
4.2.7 Terminals and User Interface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
4.2.8 Vision of the Future. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
4.2.9 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
Construction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
4.3.1 Infrastructure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
4.3.2 Construction of Buildings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
4.3.3 Building Automation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
Manufacturing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
4.4.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
4.4.2 Structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
4.4.3 Needs and Drivers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
4.4.4 Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
4.4.5 Challenges and Opportunities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
4.4.6 Functionalities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
4.4.7 Technologies and Competencies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
4.4.8 Vision of the Future. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
4.4.9 Summary Roadmap for Manufacturing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
Business Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
4.5.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
4.5.2 Vertical Business Applications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
Conclusions on the Sectors under Focus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
5 Business Models, Functionality and Services, and Content . . . . . . . . . . . 47
5.1
Business Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
5.1.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
5.1.2 Industry Vertical Dimension . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
5.1.3 Technology Dimension . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.5
User Behaviour. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
Functionality and Technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
Content. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
Roadmaps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
6 GIGA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.4
6.5
6.6
6.7
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
Radio Access . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
6.2.1 Definition of Terms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
6.2.2 General . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
6.2.3 Regulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
6.2.4 Geographical Differences. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
6.2.5 Bit Rates, Mobility, and Network Structures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
6.2.6 New Radio Concepts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
6.2.7 Key Radio Technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
6.2.8 Summary and Roadmap . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
Networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
6.3.1 General . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
6.3.2 Standards . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
6.3.3 Network Concepts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
6.3.4 Hand-over, Interoperability, and Quality of Service. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
6.3.5 Capacity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
6.3.6 IP Versions and Next Generations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
6.3.7 Competence. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
6.3.8 Summary and Roadmap . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
Devices. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
6.4.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
6.4.2 Number of Devices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
6.4.3 Usability. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
6.4.4 Features. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
6.4.5 New Design Criteria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
6.4.6 Platforms and Architecture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
6.4.7 Power Supply . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
6.4.8 Summary and Roadmap . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
Security . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
Other Areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
Hype Curves. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
7 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
7.1
7.2
7.3
7.4
7.5
7.6
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
Key Differences from the Previous Roadmap . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
Hype Curve Changes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
Summary Roadmaps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
Critical Paths and Points, with Related Opportunities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84
Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86
Appendices
1
2
3
4
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
People Interviewed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88
Participants in the Expert Workshop. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
Abbreviations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
Tekes’ Technology Reviews in English. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94
1 Abstract
This report provides roadmaps for the future of broadband
technologies and specific industry sectors’ utilisation of
mobile and wireless technologies, for improving their business processes and making them more efficient and effective.
The roadmaps present the development with timeframes
referring to the years 2007, 2010, and 2015 for the following areas: traffic and logistics, construction, manufacturing, business services, business models, radio access, networks, devices, and security.
The substance of the report is based on recent public
roadmap materials, strongly complemented by 40 individual interviews, an extensive Web-based survey, and an expert workshop. On the basis of this information coupled
with thorough analysis, roadmaps have been drawn up and
conclusions drawn.
Take-up of technologies is described also, through the use
of ‘hype curves’.
The report is concluded by summarising recent key
changes and identifying some critical paths and points as
well as opportunities related to them. At the end is a list of a
few recommendations for future development of the GIGA
and VAMOS programmes.
1
2 Background and Objectives
As part of the Tekes NETS programme, the roadmap report
Roadmap for Network Technologies and Services was published in 2004. The technological development in the area
in question is very fast and hence concerned is very rapid;
therefore, Tekes decided to initiate a project named ‘Update of GIGA-VAMOS – Technology Roadmap’. A target
of the present report was not to address technological angles alone but also to have a strong application focus.
The Tekes programme GIGA – Converging Networks
2005–2010 focuses on development of broadband technologies for future converging networks. The five-year
programme, with an estimated total budget of EUR 240
million and ending in 2010, will be funded by Tekes with
EUR 100 million. The main goals are to promote the leading position of the Finnish telecommunications industry in
technologies for wireless broadband communication and to
strengthen strategic basic research and applied research in
broadband communication. The scope of the programme is
the development of broadband technologies (especially
wireless broadband), converged network technologies, services, and content in a newly profound way driving different players into ever closer collaboration.
The VAMOS – Value added Mobile Solutions 2005–2010
programme is a Tekes programme launched in summer
2005 in co-operation with companies and research institutions. The programme aims to find ways to utilise the newest mobile technology solutions.
The objectives of the present project, Update of GIGAVAMOS – Technology Roadmap, are:
● To support the GIGA and VAMOS programmes of
Tekes
● To provide insight into future technological development, especially for small and medium enterprises
(SMEs) that are technology developers or service providers; the target is to support these companies in strategic planning and in developing new business and technologies
● To focus on applications relevant to the following sectors
of industry, relevant for VAMOS:
– traffic and logistics
– construction
– manufacturing
– business services
● Additionally, to provide a discussion base for collaboration between research and business (in particular, SMEs)
Creating roadmaps for the future is very challenging, especially if clear timelines are included. Mostly, if not always,
the actual outcome does not correspond to the forecasts.
Nonetheless, it was decided to include clear timelines in
the roadmaps, as opposed to only trends, in order to stimulate discussion as well as make it easier to determine the
changes as time passes and hence be better able to make
new decisions, based on clearly seen changes.
3
3 Project Methodology
3.1 General Approach
to the Project
The project’s approach was structured into 12 distinct
modules, which are presented in Figure 1.
The key current and future needs of the selected sectors –
i.e., traffic and logistics, construction, manufacturing, and
business services – were identified. Also, the ideas and
needs of SMEs supplying technology or services to the sectors of industry in question were identified.
Swot Consulting Finland Ltd, a management consulting
company focusing on companies and public sector in the
technology industry, was selected by Tekes to implement
this project and write the related report.
Content providers, operators, and system suppliers were
addressed as well. Universities and research institutes were
included in order to ensure sufficiently theoretical and future-oriented views.
The project’s starting point was the existing NETS report
Roadmap for Network Technologies and Services, which
was published in 2004, as well as other relevant information from the GIGA and VAMOS programmes.
The technology enablers and industry-specific development needs were elaborated upon further in an expert
workshop.
Further information has been accumulated through analysis of a large number of recent materials from public
sources and publications, listed in Appendix 1 of this report. This information has been complemented by Swot’s
own information sources as cultivated through experience
of acting in the information and communication technologies (ICT), electronics, and technology sector.
On the basis of all of the above, the final report was created,
including updates and changes from the previous report.
Also, key conclusions and recommendations are presented.
The project and the report have been and will be presented
to the Programme Management Board of both GIGA and
VAMOS, to the GIGA subject-specific task forces, and to
the VAMOS forums.
Figure 1. General approach of the project.
5
3.2 GIGA-VAMOS Roadmap Scope
The scope of the project, with the target of a viewpoint addressing technology-enabling as well as sector-specific applications, is potentially very extensive. In order to retain a
certain focus and be able to deliver meaningful results, the
scope presented in Figure 2 was selected.
In the VAMOS-led dimension, the programme considers
the topic from the industry solution point of view, for each
selected sector (traffic and logistics, construction, manufacturing, or business services). On a more generic level,
the business models are addressed as well. There are, however, also changes in the business models from the technology-enabler direction, such as emergence of different hardware and software platforms. These business model changes
are discussed as well.
In the GIGA-led dimension, the analysis considers the
topic from a technology and technology enabler point of
view. The individual technologies can partially be grouped
under the main categories radio access, networks, devices,
and security. Some of the individual technologies, however, are relevant in many or all of these main areas.
The two dimensions – the GIGA and VAMOS directions –
meet at a crossing point, which can be described to have its
base built on content. The crossing point is built upon individual technologies (elements), which together form
functionalities, such as navigation. The functionalities then
are further built into relevant industry-specific solutions
that provide value to the business processes in question.
3.3 Sources
The project work was conducted through desk studies of
public sources and publications, personal interviews, a
Web-based survey, and an expert workshop, all of which
are described in greater detail below.
3.3.1 Publications
A remarkable number of publications were evaluated as
sources, and the most relevant ones were selected as bases
for reference.
Common to most of the references is that, while they do
discuss trends quite extensively, when it comes to timing –
which is of utmost importance in utilising technology
within business – the publications are rather cautious in
terms of taking any strong stands.
Figure 2. GIGA-VAMOS roadmap scope.
6
Brief Description of Each of the Selected
References
The base document was the Roadmap for Network Technologies and Services (2004), which has a focus on
roadmaps for networks, services, and business models. The
industry-specific solutions were not included as such in the
scope of the report.
The report described roadmaps for the future with a time
reference to years 2007 and 2012 – i.e., three and eight
years into the future. Since the Roadmap for Network Technologies and Services report was the base report to be updated, the present report was given as its reference years
2007, 2010, and 2015, which then made it possible to analyse key changes also. These key changes are discussed in
section 7.1.
The report addressed also so-called critical paths from the
technology-centric world of the past to the future’s
user-centric world, with individual paths for selected topics. The critical paths contained also what are called critical
points, where certain criteria – e.g., emergence of standards
– must be satisfied if one more step is to be taken along the
path. These critical paths did not have time references, and
among other challenges with them is that, if some element
does not proceed according to the path, the model does not
provide an alternative approach. The topics covered by the
critical paths were:
● Commerce
● Business models
● Services
● Context-awareness
● Content
● Digital identity and security
● Mobile terminals
● Networks
● Radio technology
The technology summary roadmap is presented in Table 1
on page 8.
NETS – Networks of the Future 2001–2005, Final Report
(2005) was based on a previous Tekes programme of the
same name. The content of the report consists of descriptions of technologies for wireless systems, broadband networks, and related service and application concepts. It describes well the technologies that are studied but does not
contain real roadmaps.
eMobility, Mobile and Wireless Communications Technology Platform, Strategic Research Agenda (2006) has a
technical, business, and psychological approach, with year
2020 as the vision timeframe. It describes a vision that de-
Figure 3. The SET concept (eMobility, Mobile and Wireless Communications
Technology Platform, Strategic Research Agenda, 2006).
7
Table 1. Technology summary roadmap (Roadmap for Network Technologies and Services, 2004).
2007
2012
Towards more natural use or network services
Services
New services available 2007
Communication getting mobile
Multimedia communication
Personalization and adaptation using simple
context (location)
• Mobile services for various fields of life
• Collaboration and sharing an important trend
•
•
•
•
• Communication and user interaction with ICT systems
getting more natural (new means of interaction)
• More accurate positioning available
• Services and adaptation are context aware
• Agent technology to help user with vast amount of
content and services
• Brokering-type business models
From a network-centered world towards terminal-centred world
• More radio accesses implemented for mobile terminals • Multi-purpose terminals (communication, remote
Terminals
•
•
•
•
(2G, 3G, HSDPA, WLAN, BT, NFC,DVB-H,...)
User identification (biometric / smart card)
Terminal can choose best radio access
Limited multimodality
More sensors in terminals
control, data storage, authentication)
• Radio access based on SDR
• MIMO and start antennae integrated with terminals
• Power is a critical issue (due to, e.g., multimedia
processing requirements)
• Fuel cells in use as power sources
• Size of terminals and sensors very small => can be
embedded anywhere
• Communication without a terminal (voice interfaces)
Increased bandwidth in converging networks
Networks
IP is the dominant network protocol
Network convergence expanding
Application-level handover accomplished
2 Mbps on move, 10 - 14 Mbps stationary
Data traffic mainly symmetric
Positioning using global navigation satellite system
(GNSS) with cellular positioning and indoor positioning
• MIMO and smart antennae integrated with base
stations
•
•
•
•
•
•
• All-IP converged networks with IPv6 base protocol
• SDR used to access all radio interfaces in optimum
•
•
•
•
•
way
100 Mbps on move, 1Gbps stationary
Single log-on in heterogeneous networks
UWB mature enabler
PAN networks used widely
Sensor networks embedded in our surroundings
Digital multimedia data to be main source of traffic in networks
• MPEG-4 and its successors as a foundation for
Content
video coding
• MPEG-7 and XML used widely for metadata
• Digital Rights management importance increasing
• Multimedia content is a major traffic source in
telecommunication networks
• New multimedia coding algorithms are developed
• DRM and content protection integrated in services
• All multimedia content is described with metadata
Towards trusted services and end to end security
• Security mainly using VPN, PKI, SIM-card, bank
Security
account key numbers
• Bio-identification used in certain applications
• Trusted third party certification services emerging
• End to end security accomplished
• Security embedded in all devices and telecom
infrastructure
• Automatic spam and DRM filtering in network
• Third-party services e.g. for charging, certification,
personal information used
• Authentication done with same scheme for all
networks and services
8
mands a major shift from the current concept of ‘anywhere,
anytime’ to a paradigm shift of ‘any network, any device,
with relevant content and context in a secure and trustworthy
manner’. The increasing dependence of society on a communications infrastructure with a multitude of services and
networks requires new approaches and an emphasis on research captured by a new concept called the SET concept
that underscores the need for a three-dimensional vision of
research activities, for delivery of simplicity, efficiency and
trust. The SET concept is illustrated in Figure 3 on page 7.
Global Visions of a Wireless World (2006), published by
the Wireless World Research Forum (WWRF), describes
visions of the future in terms of major trends, innovation cycles, vision principles from a user-centric perspective, and
system concepts and requirements. Some pictures from this
presentation are referred to later on in this report.
Development of Broadband Technologies and Business,
GIGA Converging Networks Technology Programme
2005–2010 (2006) contains presentation slides from case
studies in the US, Japan, China, and South Korea. It contains good overviews of technological developments in
these countries over the last few years, current areas of focus, and some roadmaps for the future (especially in relation to Japan and South Korea). The key roadmaps from Japan are presented in figures 4, 5, 6, and 7, while the key
roadmaps from South Korea are presented in figures 8, 9,
and 10.
E-Business Logistics, Visions, Innovations and Research
(2006), published as part of the ELO – E-Business Logistics Technology Programme 2002–2005 by Tekes, contains roadmaps with some time references.
Figure 4. Forecast for broadband households in Japan (Development of Broadband
Technologies and Business, 2006).
9
Figure 5. Growth of data access speed in fixed and mobile communications
(Development of Broadband Technologies and Business, 2006).
Figure 6. Network evolution – DoCoMo’s case (Development of Broadband
Technologies and Business, 2006).
10
Figure 7. The mobile phone in the future (Development of Broadband Technologies
and Business, 2006).
Figure 8. Convergence and technology trends (Development of Broadband Technologies and
Business, 2006).
11
Unit: billion KRW (mil EUR)
2003
2004E
2005E
2006E
2007E
2008E
SMS
513 (407)
578 (459)
605 (480)
618 (490)
622 (494)
626 (497)
4
MMS
13 (10)
79 (63)
160 (127)
322 (256)
480 (381)
608 (483)
115
Ring tone
78 (62)
90 (71)
104 (83)
115 (91)
125 (99)
132 (105)
11
Ringback tone
82 (65)
121 (96)
197 (156)
262 (208)
314 (249)
370 (294)
35
158 (125)
188 (149)
210 (167)
228 (181)
241 (191)
250 (198)
10
Mobile
broadcasting
52 (41)
77 (61)
156 (124)
259 (206)
356 (283)
433 (344)
53
Mobile game
203 (161)
320 (254)
413 (328)
531 (421)
587 (466)
638 (506)
26
LBS
213 (169)
335 (266)
520 (413)
667 (529)
794 (630)
896 (711)
33
m-Commerce
123 (98)
337 (267)
644 (511)
916 (727)
1,160 (921)
1,327 (1,053)
61
Adult contents
113 (90)
220 (175)
298 (237)
374 (297)
427 (339)
454 (360)
32
Community
95 (75)
131 (104)
148 (117)
160 (127)
169 (134)
177 (140)
13
Lottery/Reservation
98 (78)
108 (86)
114 (90)
117 (93)
119 (94)
119 (94)
18
Stock/Banking
62 (49)
79 (62)
99 (79)
114 (90)
130 (103)
143 (113)
18
Others
96 (76)
167 (133)
237 (188)
292 (232)
349 (277)
428 (340)
35
1,899 (1,507)
2,830 (2246)
3,905 (310)
4,976 (3,949)
5,872 (4,660)
6,598 (5,237)
28
Character
download
Total
Figure 9. Mobile Internet content’s market outlook in Korea (Development of Broadband Technologies and
Business, 2006).
Narrowband
1990
2.4 – 9.6Kbps
Broadband
2000
BcN
2010
2005
4-100 Mbps
1.5 – 9.6Kbps
50 – 100 Mbps
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Voice and text
communications
Low interoperability
and synchronization
among terminals
Emphasis on electronic
data processing
Narrowband
technology
IS95 A/B
64 Kbps
●
●
●
●
●
IS95C
2000.10
144 kbps
Broadband internet
service
PC-based service
Web-based service
Networking among
some IT products
Broadband
technology
CDMA1 -x EVDO
2002
Up:2.4 Mbps
Down: 153kbps
●
●
Various converged IT services
Universal IT integration &
Universal networking
Broadband network technology:
Digital convergence technology
Trial services in July ‘05
Convergence
Services
Fixed+Mobile
TPS
Wibro+ HSDPA+ WLAN+ DMB
Home Networking
WCDMA/HSDPA
CDMA1 -x EVDV
2006
3/1.8Mbps for WCDMA
14 Mbps for HSDPA
Figure 10. ICT network evolution in Korea (Development of Broadband Technologies and Business,
2006).
12
ELO – Elektronisen liiketoiminnan logistiikka 2002–
2005, loppuraportti (2006) discusses enabling technologies for management of physical material flows and contains some roadmaps.
Etätunnistuksen suuntaviivat logistiikassa, Logistiikan
RFID Roadmap (2006) covers in a very concrete way the
possibilities for applying Radio Frequency Identification
(RFID) technologies in logistics. This publication is referred to later on in this report.
The Odyssey of the Mobile Internet (2006) discusses the
success of mobile Internet introduction in Japan as compared to Europe and the related barriers and success factors
involved in applying new mobile communications technologies in business.
‘The Long Tail’ (2004) describes business model changes
that have been enabled by the Internet.
Kansallinen tietoyhteiskuntastrategia 2007–2015 (2006),
later referred to as ‘the Strategy’, was drafted in 2006 in
co-operation with actors and decision-makers from various
sectors of society. The Strategy outlines a national vision
and strategic intent concerning the information society in
Finland. In addition to the current state of the Finnish information society, the Strategy describes changes in the national and international operating environment. The Strategy includes a concrete implementation programme and
several proposed measures, including parties that could be
responsible.
The main projects defined in the Strategy are:
● Initiating a policy programme for reforming public-sector service structures
● Increasing connection speeds for information networks
and ensuring interoperability in the information society
infrastructure
● Ensuring that the conditions for lifelong learning are met
● Reforming the rules for working life and developing
leadership and supervisory work
● Reforming the innovation system
● Developing the copyright system further
● Promoting digitalisation of business in SMEs
● Having an influence internationally, especially at the EU
level, and co-operating with Asian countries and neighbouring regions
In addition to the main projects, the Strategy includes 72
proposals for measures intended to ensure Finland’s transformation from an industrial society to an internationally
attractive, human-centric, and competitive knowledge and
service society. The Strategy includes an implementation
programme and a number of very concrete measures and
targets for 2015 – for example, households and enterprises
generally will use connections with a speed of 100 Mbps,
and new and renovated buildings will have fibre-optic connections of 1 Gbps.
The Finnish real-estate and construction cluster has a relatively long tradition in shaping a shared vision for all main
actors in the cluster. Joint vision work was started in 2000,
and the latest update report, Kiinteistö- ja rakennusklusterin visio 2010, Strategiapäivitys, was published in 2005.
The report lists the main development trends and evaluates
how the earlier visions have become reality. The report
lists as strong trends:
● Internationalisation getting faster and deeper
● Services growing and networking
● Information management becoming a more and more
important success factor
● The importance of energy- and eco-efficiency growing
● In the vision, ICT has a significant role.
New Business Opportunities for Finnish Real Estate and
ICT Clusters (2005) is a report on a two-phase pre-study to
analyse the trends in the real property business and new opportunities provided by clustering of real-estate and technology businesses. The work was supervised and sponsored by the Finnish Association of Building Owners and
Construction Clients (RAKLI), Technology Industries of
Finland, and the Federation of the Finnish Information Industries, and it was funded by Tekes. The work addresses
broadly the field’s development globally, with links to the
US and Far East.
The real-estate business and companies are seen as part of
global change in which competition is growing tougher.
Service capability and improved productivity – so-called
hyperefficiency – is a way to sharpen one’s competitive
edge.
The customers with their increasingly dynamic behaviour
play a central role in profit-making real-estate business.
This has led to new concepts in workplace services and
new combinations of business infrastructure solutions. In
Finland, these new concepts are still taking shape and finding their role in the marketplace.
Applications of new and wireless ICT are important tools
for the real-estate business, to serve the customers and
manage the property portfolios and services. New business
models and networking with ICT providers are ways to facilitate business performance.
The report Mobiiliteknologia rakennus- ja kiinteistöalalla (2005), part of the VAMOS technology programme,
reviews the state and potential of mobile applications. The
report concludes that mobile technologies and their application potential are quite new to actors in the construction
and real-estate sector, and that experience is thin. Likewise, the developers of mobile technologies lack clear understanding of how the technology and markets should be
classified or how the applications and services should be
directed.
13
The report points out the gap between technology developers and the potential users in the real-estate and construction industry: Technology experts often do not want to
limit their thinking to everyday reality, whereas professionals in this field may have difficulties in seeing the solutions that the technologies enable. The report points out
that the biggest challenges often are connected with the
biggest opportunities, and it recommends strongly that, in
future development projects, experts in mobile technology
and the construction industry should be part of joint teams.
The research reported on in Mobilizing Business Applications (2005) was carried out as part of the NETS Technology Programme in 2004 with an objective of creating a realistic picture of the role of mobile technology in businesses and identifying the challenges and opportunities in
the area of new mobile business applications and services
in business use.
The main questions for the research were:
● What is the current role of mobile solutions in business
use?
● What are the major obstacles to utilising mobile technologies in business applications?
● What are the most important (mobile) technologies in
the short term, and how will they evolve in 2005–2010?
Where do the most promising new possibilities reside?
On the basis of interviews and background analysis, the
challenges for mobile services were found to be mostly
non-technical – the available technical enablers for creating new services were judged to be sufficient for most
needs arising among the prospective users of mobile services. The real challenges were seen as being related to understanding the needs of the customer and the fit of the mobile solutions with these requirements.
The content and focus of the key references are summarised in Table 2 on pages 15 and 16.
3G Evolution – the Trusted Road Ahead (2005) is a white
paper published by Nokia and Vodafone. This white paper
describes rich content and services delivered by different
broadband technologies, including both some roadmap information and comparisons between different technologies. Some pictures from this white paper are referred to
later on in this report.
3.3.2 Personal Interviews
A number of persons from companies, research institutes,
and universities were chosen for personal interviews, with
20 persons selected to provide input from a GIGA perspective and 20 from a VAMOS perspective. All VAMOS-related interviewees were from Finland. From the technology enablement perspective it was felt to be very important
that persons from other areas, such as China, Japan, elsewhere in Europe, and the US, be included, for a more
global view of the developments and trends. The interviews were conducted between mid-October and mid-December 2006, and all, apart from two telephone interviews,
were conducted face to face. The list of persons interviewed is provided in Appendix 2.
●
It was pointed out that introducing a mobility aspect to a
business practice can change the business processes and
the roles of the players in a new value network. Understanding of the structures of value chains/networks for mobile services was seen as a bottleneck.
The large variety of different terminals, and especially the
incompatibility between terminal programming platforms,
was identified as a challenge. Understanding user needs
and usability issues are two very important elements for a
successful mobile service.
In general, mobile services were considered best suited to
tasks with a need for real-time information without requirements for large displays or input capabilities. Good coverage by the mobile network was considered even more important than bandwidth from the mobile business services
point of view.
14
3.3.3 Web-based Survey
To complement the personal interviews, especially with respondents outside Finland, a Web-based survey was carried out in November 2006. The survey was sent to 205
persons in total, both in Finland and abroad. With 83 responses received, the response rate was about 40%, which
was a very typical rate in prior experience with surveys using the same methodology.
A clear majority (56) of the respondents represented companies, with 20 representing research institutions. It was regarded as positive that the majority of the respondents were
from companies, because of the target and objectives of
this report; 36 of the respondents represented business and
43 technology, which provides a good balance. The industries that the respondents were evaluating had the following distribution: 25 persons evaluating business services,
23 traffic and logistics, 19 telecommunications, three construction, and five manufacturing. Because the number of
responses was low for construction and manufacturing, the
limitations to the statistical reliability of the results must be
kept in mind when one analyses the results.
The respondent categories are presented in figures 11, 12,
and 13.
Table 2. The content and focus of the key references.
Source
Publisher
Pub. year
Origin
Length
Roadmap for Network Tekes
Technologies and
Services
2004
Finland
NETS – Networks of
the Future 2001–
2005, Final Report
Tekes
2005
eMobility SRA,
Version 5
WWRF
Global Visions
of a Wireless World
Development of
Broadband
Technologies and
Business
Timeframe
Focus
Timeframe
estimates
Trends
107 pages 2007–2012
Roadmaps in for
networks and
services
Yes
Yes
Finland
214 pages 2010
Technologies for
wireless systems,
broadband
networks, and
related service and
application
concepts
No
Yes
August
2006
Global
62 pages
2020
Technical,
business, and
psychological
elements
Some
Yes
WWRF
2006
Global
57 pages
2017
Vision of a future
wireless world
Some
Yes
Tekes
2006
Finland
780 pages Up to 2005,
some
predictions
Technology and
business
Some
Some
E-Business Logistics, Tekes
Visions, Innovations
and Research
2006
Finland
92 pages
E-business logistics Some
Yes
ELO – Elektronisen
liiketoiminnan
logistiikka
Tekes
2006
Finland
178 pages –2010–
Enabling
technologies for
management of
physical material
flows
Some
Some
Etätunnistuksen
suuntaviivat
logistiikassa,
Logistiikan RFID
Roadmap
VTT
Rakennusja Yhdyskunta
tekniikka
2006
Finland
45 pages
RFID applications
Yes
Yes
The Odyssey of the
Mobile Internet
The Finnish 2006
Information
Society
Developmen
t Centre
Finland
252 pages –
Mobile Internet and Some
its application in
practice
Yes
‘The Long Tail’
Wired
2004
US
5 pages
–
Business model
changes
–
Yes
Kansallinen
tietoyhteiskuntastrategia
Finnish
Prime
Minister’s
Office
2006
Finland
42 pages
2007–2015
Renewal, humanorientation,
competitiveness
Yes
Yes
–2010–
2006–2015
15
...Table 2.
Source
Publisher
Pub. year
Origin
Length
Timeframe
Focus
Timeframe
estimates
Kiinteistö- ja
rakennusklusterin
visio 2010,
Strategiapäivitys
RAKLI
2005
Finland
36 pages
–2010–
Vision of real-estate No
and building
cluster, follow up of
strategy
Yes
New Business
Opportunities for
Finnish Real Estate
and ICT Clusters
Helsinki
School of
Economics
2005
Finland
63 pages
Near future
Proposals for joint
research by RE &
building and ICT
No
General
Mobiiliteknologia
rakennus- ja
kiinteistöalalla
Tekes
2005
Finland
23 pages
Near future
Project proposals
for mobile
applications
No
No
Mobilising Business
Applications
Tekes
2005
Finland
46 pages
–
Challenges and
opportunities
No
Some
3G Evolution – the
Trusted Road Ahead
(white paper)
Nokia and
Vodafone
2005
Global
20 pages
2009
Evolution of mobile
technology
bandwidths and
services
Yes
Yes
7
20
Research institution
An enterprise
Neither of the above
56
Figure 11. Web-based survey – respondents by employer.
16
Trends
4
43
Technology expert
Business person
36
Neither of the above
Figure 12. Web-based survey – respondents by profession.
8
23
Traffic and logistics
19
Construction
Manufacturing
Business services
3
5
Telecommunications
Other
25
Figure 13. Web-based survey – industries evaluated.
The Web-based survey was implemented using the Survette tool of Oy Fountain Park Ltd. In addition to freeform
verbal questions and traditional multiple-choice questions,
a technique we term ‘graphical evaluation boards’ was
used extensively in the survey for collecting opinions about
the importance of different issues. The evaluation board is
a circular field. The issues that the respondent is evaluating
are presented via labels, which can be dragged with the
mouse in the circular field one by one. Issues that get a high
importance rating are placed close to the centre of the
board, with less important ones toward the edges.
Figure 14 shows an example of a graphical evaluation
board. The red dots are the evaluations of 22 different respondents for the same issue. In the example case, the majority of the respondents considered the issue in question to
be rather important, while two respondents put it outside
the circles, thus giving it a very low importance rating. The
calculation outcome for this issue would be a number representing the median of the distances of all red dots from
the centre of the circle, which is inversely proportional to
the joint importance evaluation of this group of respondents for the issue being evaluated.
The evaluation board is a fast and easy way to collect subjective ratings for importance of issues from a number of
respondents. The method does not require artificially exact answering because there is no need to input numerical
data, and the requirement for independence and comparable scale of the issues is not as strict as in multiple-choice
questions. In graphical evaluation, the space is used twodimensionally, although only the distance from the centre
counts as an evaluation metric when the results are calculated.
17
Figure 14. Example of importance evaluation using a graphical evaluation board.
such; it indicates only which technology or functionality is
important. It is also worth noting that each issue is evaluated individually, so it is not a problem if the issues overlap
or are not of similar size.
The tables describing the expected market entry of different technologies or functionalities represent the distribu-
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PA
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Fu PA
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Po
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3G
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The results from evaluation boards are converted into bar
graphs by taking, for each issue in a group, the median of
the distances of all respondents’ answers from the centre;
inverting it (because small distance corresponds to great
importance); and sorting the resulting numbers in declining
order for presentation in a bar graph. Figure 15 shows such
a graph. The absolute value does not have a meaning as
Figure 15. Example bar graph – impact of technologies for the development of machine-to-machine
communication.
18
Table 3. Example of expected market entry of various functionalities.
ALL
Already
in use
By 2010
Identification and tracking of
investment goods based on RFID
***
*****
Identification and tracking of
consumer goods based on RFID
**
****
Positioning/navigation based on
digital maps and satellite or
mobile systems
*******
**
Biometrics used for human
identification
**
****
**
Daily use of mobile e-mail by more
than 30 % of business users
***
*****
*
*
******
*
Daily use of mobile Web browsing by
more than 30 % of business users
tion of individual opinions expressed in the Web-based
survey. If all respondents had placed the market entry in the
same time period, the table would have 10 asterisks in the
corresponding cell. When the opinions are distributed over
different time periods, the number of asterisks indicates the
proportion of the evaluations selecting that period, with
each asterisk corresponding to 10% of the votes. That the
sum of all asterisks is not always 10 is an effect of rounding. An example can be seen in Table 3.
By 2015
After 2015
Never
**
The second target of the workshop was to identify critical
paths and points in overall development, as well as to identify opportunities that could be of interest for Finnish organisations.
The workshop encouraged lively discussion and provided
valuable comments in terms of either supporting or challenging the intermediate results of the project. These comments were considered as a matter of course in the preparation of this final report.
3.3.4 Workshop
In January 2007, 14 persons, with diverse backgrounds,
participated in an expert workshop arranged in the latter
part of the project in order to allow the experts to comment
and review the intermediate results of the project. The participants in the workshop are listed in Appendix 3.
19
4 VAMOS
4.1 Introduction
The VAMOS programme focuses on improving business
processes in selected industries by utilising mobile and
wireless technologies. The key industries selected in the
VAMOS programme are traffic and logistics, construction
and facility maintenance, manufacturing, and business services; hence, these areas were also the ones investigated in
the focus of this project. The concept of business services is
a very broad one, and those of greatest interest for VAMOS
are horizontal business applications. These are enterprise
resource planning (ERP), customer relationship management (CRM) (including mobile marketing), and field force
automation (FFA). The name of the programme – VAMOS
(‘Value added Mobile Solutions’) – emphasises opportunities of mobile technology to add value to business processes. One of the key tasks in VAMOS is to determine the
business opportunities in selected industries.
The structure of the roadmap, which forms the essential result of this project for each sector, is divided into four parts:
● Key trends
● Current situation (2007)
● Forecast for 2010
● Forecast for 2015
In discussing trends, it is vital to identify which are most
relevant from a Finnish perspective, despite the fact that
globalisation drives things in the direction that all trends
somehow affect.
Some common key drivers, enablers, and barriers in renewal of business processes are presented in Figure 16. It is
worth noticing that in many cases the same subject may
well be a driver and an enabler at the same time. Sometimes, the same topic may even be both a driver and a barrier. It is also very important to stress that developments or
Figure 16. Common key drivers, enablers, and barriers in renewal of business processes.
21
Figure 17. Interrelation between logistics and the value chain.
barriers to development are affected strongly by other factors than technology alone, such as politics, regulation,
psychology, and marketing.
Logistics is a very broad concept and has strong ties with
the whole value chain – e.g., supply, manufacturing, traffic, and transport, as well as consumption. As indicated in
Figure 17, this report focuses on the elements of traffic and
logistics, which are discussed in section 4.2, below, and
manufacturing, addressed in section 4.4.
4.2 Traffic and Logistics
4.2.1 Needs
Good knowledge of relevant branches of industry is becoming very important when the target is intelligent logistics solutions. In this context, it is also important to understand that the often-required ‘one customer interface’ has
two dimensions – the human and the machine.
It is essential to recognise in which part of the value chain
the logistics enterprise is and where it wants to be.
Warehouses are well under control at present in the logistics chain, but the quantity and whereabouts of property being transported is not always known. This can represent
10–30% of the total inventory value of the chain.
Logistics is only one function among many in enterprises,
and thus development focus is limited. Enterprises have
very different needs and requirements that must be fulfilled. There are no common standards, but some recommendations do exist. When the large corporations deploy
their backbone IT solutions, logistical requirements are
22
taken into consideration only to a certain extent. The larger
the enterprise is, the more tailoring is required. That SMEs
tend to use ready-made packages makes integration with
these systems easier.
Needs vary greatly from one segment of the market to another, and also within each. Some reasons for this are:
● Manner of use
● Processes
● Fleet size
The price points for willingness to invest in vehicle ICT
systems are estimated to be about five times higher today in
northern Europe than in Eastern Europe, due to the difference in labour cost levels but also as a consequence of a different culture of using IT. The US market for truck systems
is about five times the size of the EU market and also much
more homogenous.
The need for using positioning varies a lot and depends
very much also on the safety of the areas and districts
where the transport takes place, as well as the drivers’ reliability.
The framework for a logistics provider can be arranged under three main categories – namely, the goods of the customers, the driver, and the truck or other vehicle, as illustrated in Figure 18, below. The level of integration of systems addressing these categories, both with each other and
into the logistics provider’s ERP system, remains very limited – it is more a question of somewhat independent islands.
Information related to the customer and goods: The exact
position is typically not crucial. It still suffices to know between which points the goods are. There is often an inde-
Figure 18. Level of integration between purpose-specific systems and the logistics service
provider’s ERP systems.
pendent system based on the Global Positioning System
(GPS).
higher than in many other industries, and this has driven the
change.
Truck information, such as speed, fuel consumption, and
engine Revolution Per Minute (RPM) data: These systems
tend to be truck-manufacturer-specific, and the needs of
different transportation types are so different that complete
solutions are very difficult to build.
The market is divided between a few large players, medium-size players, and small players. The consolidation
and globalisation of the large enterprises and hence logistics players following the same trend is one key driver of
development. The different logistics chains – that is, the
big companies – have different automation of vehicles and
different planning, their own management systems, and
their own standards worldwide. If the customer wants
global service, the choice of supplier is limited. Big companies are optimising their chains, but at the same time there
are chains consisting of many independent actors.
Driver information consists of working hour reports, salary
information, etc. Some driver information is beginning to
be integrated into the truck systems also, such as working
hour reporting.
The systems still tend to be quite purpose-built for goods
transportation requirements: Digital maps and navigation
are not integrated, even if they technically could be. The
reasons for this are the better usability of purpose-specific
devices and greater reliability.
4.2.2 Trends and Drivers
A key trend is outsourcing of logistics, and this has only begun. The outsourcing market is still growing. There are big
differences between the various sectors of industry in relation to this; for example, the telecommunications and electronics industry are very developed, while the forest industry is only in the very beginning of these changes. The
speed and cycle time requirements in electronics are much
The consolidation of logistics companies leads to polarisation. It is an interesting option – and feasible from a business perspective – for large logistics suppliers to serve primarily large customers. Smaller customers can be served
well only if the standard solutions match.
Information technology is going to be an integrated part of
traffic infrastructure. Development will be driven by big
purchasers, not by the transport companies. Consolidation
of vehicle system suppliers is also inevitable.
Technology and business are driving factors, but one of the
very important decisive points for take-up is to determine
the human factors related to the adoption of more advanced
logistics solutions.
23
That there is much more cargo from Asia to Europe than
the other way round has further potential to drive some interesting and unexpected business model changes.
business processes need to be used, making the process so
expensive that the potential savings are not achieved.
Logistics centres are a new development phenomenon in
Finland – examples are logistics parks in the Ring III area,
Vuosaari, and Riihimäki. Similar trends were visible elsewhere in Europe much earlier. The current development in
Finland may include a bit of logistics centre hype.
Opportunities and Business Model Changes
The key trends and drivers can be summarised as:
● Changing business models including outsourcing and
globalisation
● Ease of use
– Users who are willing to try new things are driving
changes – the young generation is very adaptive
● Transparency requirements for all players in the value
net
● Reliability
● Requirements of a large customer for certain
functionalities, which may spread rapidly after that
● Standards that are starting to be at a sufficient level
● Several needs that will gradually be incorporated into
the same integrated business process
● An increasing amount of ICT everywhere, with wireless
use and mobility as key features
4.2.3 Challenges and Opportunities
Challenges and Bottlenecks
The key challenge is one of holistic management. Outsourcing requires larger entities to be managed and networked. Enterprises in the cluster should be capable of envisioning the developments together.
Everybody has different systems today, with various inhouse formats making interfaces expensive to implement.
Within a company, there are also many different systems
that do not work together as they could. Navigation, as an
example, is in very wide use but not integrated into other
systems. The integration is going to take a long time.
The increased amount of information that is digitally available poses an increased security risk also, in the form of potential misuse of information (e.g., where a truck is or
where the goods are stored). Another example in this context is electronic licence plates. From a technical standpoint, they could be implemented today, but privacy considerations may be an obstacle.
The truck manufacturers are working toward stronger integration of the systems embedded in trucks and those related
to the driver, but this transition will take time. The problem
from the transport company’s point of view is that the fleet
typically consists of several brands of trucks and that, in a
transition period, several types of equipment, systems, and
24
Outsourcing requires management of larger entities and
networking in a holistic way, as indicated above. There is
still much efficiency to be gained, but that requires unified
models, processes, and IT. Logistics is estimated to represent about 17% of the gross national product of Finland,
which makes it evident that the potential for efficiency and
added value is vast.
The status of traffic data is somewhat unclear: Is it public
or private? In some countries, the government is investing
in traffic data, on account of a belief that the state should remain in the value chain as a subcontractor of traffic data. It
is not likely that this mode will survive in the long run,
since the same development will take place as has been
seen already with geographical information. Traffic data
should come about 15 years behind digital maps.
The market value of rapidly changing information is higher
than that of static information.
A key enabler of the development in traffic and logistics
services is the shift of financing, including the possible
subventions, to end-use-based models. Technology is not
the limiting factor. A considerable enabling factor in Finland is the strong base of networks and support of mobility.
An interesting example is dynamic follow-up on traffic,
which is on its way already. Payment for the use of a road
will be included in route optimisation dynamically. Dynamic and complete availability of traffic data enables
price-setting for all available routes between destinations
also, in order to steer traffic toward optimal use of the
available infrastructure.
Timing, however, is a crucial question: When is the benefit
of a certain technology or application so great that implementation makes sense? Also, some newer technology
may arise that makes the previous one obsolete too early.
Road and traffic services will be developed according to
the following model of operation: The owner of the road
network contracts the traffic in a region to a company that
charges for the services on the basis of end users’ usage.
In terms of other developments, there will be trip intermediaries in road traffic similar to those for air and rail travel today.
In addition, new technology enables, e.g., pay-as-you-drive
insurance. Also, would there be an opportunity for horizontalisation, with container operator and content operator?
The Finnish Road Administration has a key position in the
development of traffic services. Authorities and politicians
set the pace of deployment. Numerous studies are carried
out by public actors in Finland, but implementation of real
change is rather slow when no serious problems are clear.
Global and even European policies on transport (e.g., rail
transport) are very fragmented.
The country that is first to implement an operational system
reaps benefits. Finland is well positioned due to networks’
mobility support and the existing road condition monitoring systems.
Because of the view that the vehicle communications arena
remains very fragmented, the right approach may be one
with a universal vehicle platform, consisting of open interfaces and standard modules. These platforms then can be
used for customer-specific systems as the base on which
the needed applications are built. There will also be vertical
players, such as companies specialising in bus systems, and
then strong component suppliers.
Regulatory factors may drive technology deployment by
enforcing changes in vehicle automation systems. Examples of such regulatory factors include truck safety recorders as well as breath alcohol detection and interlocks.
Environmental and energy fees will change the logistics
business. Large changes in the prices of oil and emission
rights may have a huge influence. It is possible that additional regulatory fees for energy usage will be implemented in the future.
4.2.5 Functionalities
The functionalities and timing of use for certain functionalities, as indicated in the Web-based survey’s results,
are presented in Figure 19 and Table 4.
Europe is very fragmented in terms of usage and standards.
While the EU is attempting some standardisation, this is
difficult and, to a certain extent, may not even be viable.
Emergence of a de facto standard for traffic information in
Europe would speed up the development significantly. It is
hoped that this will take place.
Tracking and tracing, identification, and positioning were
identified as the most important functionalities for the development of the sector. The second category of importance consists of seamless access to networks, navigation,
and mobile terminals, closely followed by digital identity
and security. Digital security and identity as an essential element also in traffic was confirmed in many of the personal
interviews as well. There is an EU directive under preparation concerning the release of geographical information to
public use.
Follow-up information handling is in the process of becoming integrated, and the use of open database standards
is increasing.
It is interesting to note that telecommunications capacity as
such is not seen as one of the most important functionalities, which can be interpreted as an indication that mo-
4.2.4 Standardisation and Regulation
Figure 19. Relative importance of different functionalities for the development of
traffic and logistics.
25
Table 4. Timing of usage of certain key functionalities within traffic and logistics.
TRAFFIC AND LOGISTICS
Identification and tracking of investment
goods based on RFID
Already
in use
By 2010
**
******
***
Identification and tracking of consumer
goods based on RFID
*
Biometrics used for human identification
*
***
***
Daily use of mobile e-mail by more than
30 % of business users
**
*****
**
Daily use of mobile Web browsing by
more than 30 % of business users
*
******
*
bile technologies already provide the required throughput
for most applications for the present and the near future.
From the timing table, a few key observations can be made.
In the next few years, RFID should see a strong entry into
tracking and identification of investment goods. The same
is expected for consumer goods about five years later. Positioning/navigation based on digital maps and satellite
(GPS, Galileo) or mobile systems is already in extensive
use today, but the key area for development is to integrate
these systems and the information content into other systems. The use of biometrics for human identification is expected to start becoming common by 2010 and continue its
spread.
Some of the basic functionalities in use today in this field
are acknowledgement of delivery and information on subsequent delivery.
Some other additional functionalities that could be included
in the future:
● Identity of the person receiving the delivery
● Exceptions
● Indication of whether the store at the destination is open
● Real-time applications
● Fuel consumption
4.2.6 Systems and Technologies
The impact of different technologies on navigation, positioning, tracking, and identification functionalities was addressed in the Web-based survey as presented in Figure 20.
By far, RFID was seen as the technology that will have the
most important impact, followed by a number of other
technologies, such as sensor networks and near distance
After 2015
Never
***
********
Positioning/navigation based on digital
maps and satellite or mobile systems
26
By 2015
*
communications (near field communication (NFC), Bluetooth, Wibree). Since RFID was seen as so important both
in the Web-based survey and in the interviews, it is discussed separately and in more detail below. Other key technologies are addressed as well but given less emphasis.
RFID Technology
The use of RFID technology has remarkable potential in
traffic and logistics, in areas such as:
● Tracing and tracking
– Example: Tracking whether all required goods are included and ensuring that no goods are included that
should not be
● Car surveillance and monitoring (e.g., an intelligent transport system through placement of the tag on, for example, the registration plate)
However, there remain some bottlenecks, such as:
High price
● The limited number of players
● That RFID needs to be embedded in products
● That some trials have not shown good enough results
(new chips that are available today may be better)
● That a certain number of readers is needed (cost needs to
decrease to about €20–200)
●
The key drivers are that:
Large retail stores such as Wal-Mart, Tesco, Marks &
Spencer, and Metro Group are requiring it of their suppliers
● The US Department of Defense is requiring it of key
suppliers
● Large industrial companies are requiring it of key
suppliers
●
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Figure 20. Impact of the various technologies for development of navigation – positioning
– tracking – identification.
The technology is making its breakthrough in both industry and the retail sphere. Large retailers and industry are
adopting RFID, which means that others need to follow.
The technology will complement the bar code, not replace
it. For instance, RFID will decrease errors while increasing speed and traceability. Transparency, predictability,
and early corrective actions are part of the key added
value that logistics companies can provide using, e.g.,
RFID technology.
Some large industrial companies, such as ABB with its
subcontractors, have implemented RFID technology successfully, resulting in:
● Better transparency
● More efficient operations
● Better handling of exceptions
● Improved gathering of statistics
All in all, the business results were better management of
goods and reduced stocks.
Figure 21. RFID tags are read when components are delivered to the
factory (E-Business Logistics, Visions, Innovations and Research, 2006).
27
Figure 22. RFID penetration in Finland in the logistics field (Etätunnistuksen
suuntaviivat logistiikassa, Logistiikan RFID Roadmap, 2006).
Typically, RFID will become common earlier in more expensive products, such as drugs, high-end mobile phones,
and high-priced investment goods. However, this technology is already in some use for theft prevention with a few
less expensive products.
Most new cars soon will have passive RFID tags. Tags in
different parts of cars would provide real value in operations related to sourcing, production, tracking, and maintenance.
Figure 23. Services using RFID tags in Japan (Development of Broadband Technologies
and Business, 2006).
28
Table 5. Development of RFID usage in traffic and logistics.
2007
RFID
2010
2015
• Successful RFID trials are
• RFID is used extensively
• RFID also is used in daily
completed
• Large retail stores and
industrial companies
require RFID compatibility
of suppliers
• The rapid expansion
phase begins
in closed systems and
investment goods
consumer products
extensively
• RFID is a dominant
technology
• Packaging suppliers have
fully integrated RFID
Eventually, RFID will become common in every product,
even daily consumer products. When the price is in the
range of one cent per chip, this will be reality. Eventually,
the RFID tags will be integrated into the packaging material.
However, the change of reading systems will be a rather
long and expensive process (e.g., for readers in point-ofsale systems in stores).
A recent study within the Aino programme (Etätunnistuksen suuntaviivat logistiikassa, Logistiikan RFID Roadmap, 2006) supports very well the findings of this project.
Timing of the penetration of RFID usage as described in
the Aino programme is presented in Figure 22.
Figure 23 describes the usage today and future willingness
to use three RFID-enabled services in Japan.
A summary roadmap of RFID development is presented in
Table 5.
Other Technologies
Practical, easy-to-use solutions are in use today – e.g.,
WAP-based solutions are still in important use in some
transport applications, enhanced with extended General
Packet Radio Service (GPRS) capabilities in some sectors
since the beginning of the millennium. Upgrades to more
modern technologies are not performed, because of the
high transition costs.
The usage conditions in the Finnish climate are harsh, with
large temperature changes, which provides both a challenge and an opportunity to develop robustness. The lack
of Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM) coverage in a sparsely populated country such as Finland was a
bottleneck earlier on but not anymore.
Newer vehicle systems being introduced in 2007 tend to be
operator-independent, which provides the opportunity to
use the most cost-efficient communications option. There
is greater bandwidth, depending on where Enhanced Data
Rates for GSM Evolution (EDGE) and 3G access are available. More functionalities are being integrated on a continuous basis. One of the main ideas continues to be that most
of the inputs are handled automatically, without the expensive use of, e.g., driver resources.
The Digita Flash Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM) network will bring Wireless Local Area
Network (WLAN) use to public transport vehicles in April
2007. Through this, access to the Internet can be provided
to passengers.
New-generation GPS will bring another frequency. The
Galileo project has stimulated civil GPS development. By
the end of 2008, all Galileo satellites will be up, and the
system is expected to be operational in 2010. Also, Assisted GPS, or AGPS, technology brings auxiliary information over the mobile net to improve GPS accuracy and integrate services. The technology is already in use. The use of
Real-Time Kinematics GPS (RTKGPS) will enable the accuracy of a few centimetres. By 2010, GPS will be widely
available in mobile phones. In 2015, it will be a standard
feature of a mobile phone.
At the same time, Micro-Electro-Mechanical Systems
(MEMS) acceleration sensors are coming to mobile
phones. They can complement the positioning.
Sensor technologies (for temperature, humidity, corrosion,
oxygen content, etc. in addition to RFID per se) can provide a great deal of added value, but implementation
throughout the logistics chain is a very long-term development, beyond 2015.
In 2010, a pan-European smartcard system for mobile
phones will be available, and in 2015 commonplace. It will
enable a number of payment types, such as transportation
fares. Different payment modes are possible and in competition with each other, examples including a purse of electronic money, payment through operator billing, credit
card use, and third-party invoicing.
29
Dedicated Short Range Communication (DSRC) is enabling a pan-European road toll system.
Some trials with digital pens – in conjunction with acknowledgement of delivery – were not successful, because
the pens were not reliable enough and the digital paper was
too expensive.
There are companies providing platforms for professional
vehicle telematics and fleet management systems. On top
of these platforms, sector-specific and company-specific
applications can then be tailored.
4.2.7 Terminals and User Interface
The terminals used are typically purpose-built standard terminals for, e.g., truck drivers. Illumination factors have
been one area that has not been considered sufficiently
from the usage point of view.
The terminal typically has functionalities such as WLAN,
RFID, bar code reader, and camera.
In the long term, more functionalities are going to be integrated into all terminal devices, but the use of dedicated
terminals, built for a specific purpose, probably will remain
dominant.
4.2.8 Vision of the Future
The vision for the future is full transparency across the
whole value net, such that:
● Tracking and tracing on its own is not sufficient
(too passive)
● Exceptions and warning signals are delivered
proactively
● There is the possibility of taking corrective action when
exceptions are spotted and reported early enough
● The customer is informed in advance
All of the elements necessary for such solutions are available today, but the question remains of having different
systems to communicate and accumulate the relevant information – for better utilisation of the existing vast quantity of data, which is the main bottleneck.
30
The vision for the future could be the following:
2010: Invoicing for all forms of transport will use the same
principle – you pay by the kilometre. The meter is always on.
Optimistic scenario for 2015: Finland has made the important decisions on time so that in 2010 the management of
road traffic has moved to the same mode as air traffic.
There are Finnish international business success stories in
this field. Business and concepts have been globalised.
Change has begun in so many countries that the effects on
national economies start to be visible.
Pessimistic scenario for 2015: Cutting of budgets is necessary, recession development takes place elsewhere, and the
traffic and logistics industry withers.
The difference between the pessimistic and optimistic scenarios is the state’s position on road payments and road operation contracts. If the changes in these areas are left
half-done, the advantages will not be actualised.
If development is favourable, traffic will take its place as a
support process for society, earning its money from supporting the main processes.
4.2.9 Summary
As a summary, the following can be stated:
The network needs to fulfil the basic requirements of
functionality, reliability, quality, and cost-efficiency
● Several needs gradually will be incorporated into the
same integrated business process
● Users should be able to use the systems – the younger
generation is very adaptive
●
Figure 24 describes the essentials for realisation of the vision of transparency in a new, future value net within the
area of traffic and logistics: There needs to be uniformity
and seamless communication between all companies and
authorities on the level of business models, processes, and
IT systems.
A summary roadmap for traffic and logistics, based on inputs and the analysis and conclusions within this report, is
presented in Table 6.
Figure 24. Realisation of the vision for the future of transparency requires
uniformity, and seamless communications.
Table 6. Roadmap for traffic and logistics.
TRAFFIC AND LOGISTICS
Key trends
• Increased need for transparency, for all players in the value net
• Globalisation of customers and logistics suppliers
• Large retail stores such as Wal-Mart or Tesco and large global industrial companies driving
changes through at a rapid pace
• Consolidation of logistics providers
Situation in 2007
• Business and process models are rather well defined within companies
• Content is only partially digitalised
• Communications between the digital and physical world are sporadic
Situation in 2010
• Business and process models are defined for entire value networks
• The majority of content is digitalised
• Communication between the digital and physical world occurs in certain areas systematically
Situation in 2015
• Business and process models for dynamically changing value networks are defined
• Virtually all relevant content is digitalised
• Communications between the digital and physical world takes place systematically, and
transparency is good
31
4.3 Construction
Construction of infrastructure and construction of buildings are two segments of industry with very different products, business processes, and structure, and consequently
different views on utilisation of technologies. The technologies used in construction processes themselves differ
from those included in the products (e.g., buildings and
roads). Maintenance needs add another point of view on
utilisation of technologies. In this section of the report,
consideration of the use of technologies in construction industries is divided into the following areas:
● Infrastructure construction and maintenance
● Construction of buildings
● Building automation
The connection of building automation to the construction
process itself is loose, because the lifetime of a building is
much greater than that of an automation system.
4.3.1 Infrastructure
The greatest volume in the infrastructure construction and
maintenance business is in traffic networks (road and rail)
that are owned by public actors and built in large projects
involving a substantial design effort. The products have
long lifetimes and require regular maintenance. The challenges in construction and maintenance of other societal infrastructure, such as that for electricity, water, and telecommunication networks, are largely similar but involve
lower volumes.
At the core of the infrastructure cluster is the land and water structure construction field, where most production traditionally has been carried out as the work of the public
sector. The structure of the industry in European countries
is in various phases of transition from state- or city-controlled activity to a cluster of competitive enterprises offering their products and services to the owners of the infrastructure networks. In most cases, the owners are stateowned companies, cities, or other public actors.
The industry traditionally has been quite conservative, and
the availability of individual technologies is not the limiting factor in the deployment of new methods. As in many
other industry clusters, one crucial enabler is to first create
a common language in an industry where the terminology
has been diversified. Agreeing on common terms and subsequent standardisation are prerequisites for the optimisation and full application of ICT in processes wherein multiple parties contribute to the same project.
32
Traditionally, the purchaser has specified in detail how the
project is to be implemented, and service providers have
competed on the basis of unit costs. There have not been incentives for the development of reusable product concepts.
Product development culture is emerging in the industry,
but it is in its early stages when compared with, e.g., that in
house construction. At the national level, the industry actively seeks standard product models that would enable automated information exchange between different companies working in a common value network, e.g., when designing, building, and maintaining a road.
Standardisation issues and also industry structure issues
seem to be less internationally focused in infrastructure-building than in many other industries.
New (mobile and Web-based) technologies can offer new
communication and participation possibilities for the citizens in relation to infrastructure-planning and construction
issues. They can help to speed up the process of city planning by improving communication as well.
The impact of mobility in infrastructure-building and
maintenance processes is even greater than in house-building because of the mobility of the building site. The power
supply of the mobile terminals is not as critical as in some
other applications, because the terminals can be connected
to vehicles in most phases of the work. Robustness and
ease of use (including hands-free operation) are important
factors, as is the capability for presentation of graphical
data, such as maps and design information.
Real-time information about the status of the infrastructure
is essential for management and maintenance. Timelines
and geographical coverage are more important than great
accuracy. The bandwidth in collection of real-time information is increasing rapidly. This puts pressure on information-handling processes as well.
Maintenance of the road infrastructure is closely linked to
operation issues – i.e., management of traffic. Traffic was
discussed separately in section 4.2.
When location information becomes commonplace in consumer terminals, it will be possible, for example, to have
the road users report road damage, including photographs,
in real time with accurate location information.
In 2010, the automation of road-building processes will
still be in a pilot stage, but the first implementations should
exist. In 2015, product-model-based design and implementation of projects will be in use. The advantages of mobility
can be obtained fully only after design and maintenance information is available automatically in digitised form.
4.3.2 Construction of Buildings
4.3.3 Building Automation
Although ERP systems are commonly in use by construction companies, at present the physical tracking of parts
and materials all the way to the building site typically is not
integrated into the system. Existing RFID technology has
not been reliable enough to justify the investment, although
it would bring remarkable savings and quality improvements to the process. Often, the environmental conditions
at building sites impose limits on the practical input of
tracking data. There is a need for robust handheld terminals
for the transactions outdoors on building sites.
Much of the available automation technology, mostly developed first in industrial applications, would be useful in
houses. There is use for traditional automation in the monitoring and control of the basic parameters and supplies of
houses. The concept of intelligent building is 15 years old;
only the practical implementation has been very slow.
In 2010, RFID tracking of products will be in common use
in logistics between enterprises if the G2 standard functions well in use. If we must wait for G3, the breakthrough
will take longer. In 2015, RFID tags will be part of everyday life.
The use of product models is much better implemented in
building construction than in infrastructure. Some large
buyers already require all design work to be done on the basis of product models.
The biggest factor slowing the application of automation in
houses is that there is no open-standard service platform to
enable development of different services by independent
companies and integration of these in the building project.
Houses are built as projects, and for house-builders automation is a minor issue, lumped in with electrical installation work. Nobody has the incentive to develop a general-purpose platform for house automation applications.
One possible driver for the use of sensors in buildings and
infrastructure could be the legal liabilities of the constructor. It is not clear, however, who might be a suitable driving
party for this development. So far, neither the industry itself nor insurance companies have been very active.
Also, ERP systems are used in purchasing of materials.
Links between suppliers’ product catalogues and design
systems have been built. The first trials of tracking of incoming materials via RFID are taking place. While standard bar codes – Universal Product Code (UPC) and European Article Number (EAN) – were widely implemented
for retail product tracking in the ’70s and ’80s, no common
bar code standard ever was developed for building materials. The industry is searching for ways to migrate to process-based operation from its current project-by-project
approach. Here, RFID standards may be an enabler. It is
expected that in 2010 the first pioneers will have building
sites where the incoming products are identified digitally
and linked to the maintenance systems. In 2015, this procedure should be commonplace, except perhaps for the sites
with the worst weather and environmental conditions. The
portability, weather-resistance, usability, and reliability of
the terminals are essential – there is a need for ‘militarygrade equipment with civil pricing’.
Some applications are under development, such as electric
meter reading using GSM, but in these cases often the developer tries to create a proprietary platform in line with
the earning logic for the maintenance phase.
The advantages of having online up-to-date design information available on the building site are clear; old versions
of drawings, omissions in designs, and misunderstandings
of the intention of the designer are frequent, and good version management, perhaps in concert with an online visual
communication link to the designers, would pay off early.
The integration will proceed on several levels and using
various interfaces. Communication between building-operations-oriented systems serves functionalities such as:
● Access control
● Energy control
● Safety and security
● Protection against fire
● Heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC)
● Lighting
● Lifts, escalators, and internal logistics performance
● 24/7 monitoring and maintenance
Control of access to the construction site and recording of
the tasks accomplished are mobility-based functionalities
that will find use in construction-related industries.
Also, the established methods of operation in the industry
were seen as obstacles to implementation. Changes would
cause elimination of traditional jobs and roles yet also create new ones.
Regardless of all of the structural and cultural issues that
slow down development, there is a slowly advancing trend
toward open multi-vendor platforms in building automation. To quote New Business Opportunities for Finnish
Real Estate and ICT Clusters (2005), “[we] assume that the
traditional building systems will become integrated and
network connected so that the control of systems and user
services can be designed to use a common user interface in
a common backbone network of a building.”
33
Intelligent building technology also can support the unassisted living of older people in their own homes.
While the buildings are designed to last 100 years, automation and data processing technologies become obsolete in a
few years. It is to be expected that in building automation
there will be a market for systems that are installed in existing buildings in modernisation projects rather than as part
of the original design.
Table 7 presents the results of the Web-based survey in relation to different functionalities and the timing of their
broad implementation. In reading the results, it should be
borne in mind that the number of respondents to this part of
the survey was only three.
Figure 25. Building systems and user services with
independent networks will be integrated in a backbone and simplify the building network and communication environment (New Business Opportunities
for Finnish Real Estate and ICT Clusters, 2005).
Communication between facilities management and users
is utilised for:
● Maintenance work orders and reporting
● Lobby services and guest guidance
● Reporting and billing
The views of the respondents on the use of RFID were split,
some of them seeing RFID technology as being in use already and others foreseeing a delay of 4–8 years before implementation.
At building sites, optically readable personnel identification cards are in wide use. The respondents obviously considered this a sufficient level of identification, since they
were unanimously quite sceptical about biometric identification ever entering use in this branch of industry.
Key trends and developments foreseen in the construction
field are summarised in Table 8.
Table 7. Timing of usage of certain key functionalities within construction.
CONSTRUCTION
Identification and tracking of
construction material based on RFID
Positioning/navigation based on
digital maps and satellite or mobile
systems
Already
in use
By 2010
******
By 2015
Never
***
******
***
******
***
Biometrics used for human
identification
34
After 2015
Daily use of mobile e-mail by more
than 30% of business users
******
***
Daily use of mobile Web browsing by
more than 30% of business users
******
***
Table 8. Roadmap for construction.
CONSTRUCTION
Key trends
• Interactive online access from the building site to up-to-date design information
• Tracking of the flow of material and components all the way
• Standardisation of the service platform layer for building automation
Situation in 2007
• Design information in drawings and enquiries by phone
• ERP systems managing materials until dispatch from the warehouse, and thereafter no automatic
checking
• Emerging standards not in wide use; proprietary channels for new services
Situation in 2010
• Paper drawings primary, with mobile phone cameras to check details
• Completion of first pioneers’ implementation of end-to-end RFID tracking of components
• Struggle related to standards: COBA, BACnet, own solutions, service-specific solutions
Situation in 2015
• Robust, easily operable handheld terminals for many building sites for online ERP-CAD
• RFID-based material tracking between companies – commonplace but gaps still exist
• Emergence of a clear standard, however many less dominant existing in paralell
4.4 Manufacturing
4.4.1 Introduction
There have been big changes in Finnish manufacturing
over the last 10 years. Most of the successful companies
operate globally, and manufacturing has been moved close
to the customers, partly for logistical reasons and partly because of manufacturing costs. The other main driver has
been remarkable structural change throughout the industry
but especially in manufacturing, with system suppliers becoming a new type of player between large manufacturing
companies and individual component suppliers. A third
factor, which is getting more and more important, is the
lack of skilled labour and the geographical imbalance between different parts of the country. Also, investments in
manufacturing have been very modest, and trust that manufacturing can offer a competitive edge for the companies
concerned has vanished.
In manufacturing, the electronics industry has seen remarkable improvement in productivity (2.5-fold from 1995
to 2002) while other manufacturing has been almost flat.
The current thinking is very much that Finland is making
its living from R&D but manufacturing can be done globally. In the long run, it is, however, impossible to be competitive in the total end-to-end process in the absence of
world-class technologies and competence in all parts of the
process. Hence, choices need to be made as to which part of
the end-to-end process should receive the focus.
4.4.2 Structure
The great structural change in manufacturing began during
the recession in the early ’90s, when large companies
started to outsource their production. In the beginning, the
main reasons were the reduction of fixed expenses and assets, but more recently other drivers have been the technologies and competencies that system suppliers and subcontractors can provide.
System suppliers were, until the late ’90s, very much like
manufacturing departments for the big companies, but in
10 years the best of the system suppliers have developed
their production control, purchasing, engineering, and even
R&D competencies such that the customer can order a
complete product, to be designed and delivered to the end
users.
Subcontractors who earlier were delivering their goods directly to the big companies now have business relationships mostly with system suppliers. The leading subcontractors have focused on certain types of manufacturing
and have invested in modern machine tools, control systems, and automation.
35
Outsourcing started in the electronics industry in early
2000, when globally operated companies demanded that
their partner companies have their own international manufacturing facilities in the same countries and locations as
the customers. Now this development is being seen also in
engineering and the machine-building industry.
Some of the strategic partnerships have been very successful, but there are also plenty of warning examples of badly
planned and implemented manufacturing co-operation.
This means that we will continue to see considerable structural change and the main trend will be toward insourcing
instead of outsourcing.
4.4.3 Needs and Drivers
The manufacturing field is very large and diversified, so
the needs can vary a great deal from one market segment to
the next. The needs and drivers in the electronics industry
and other manufacturing are different. Also, manufacturing volume has a great impact. Manufacturing can be divided into the following main categories:
● Mass production
● Flexible, cost-effective manufacture of project and
low-volume products
● Manufacture of demanding and more intelligent
mass-customised products
Common needs for the whole end-to-end process are:
● Global operations
● Technical key accounts: New products are developed in
collaboration with demanding customers so that the
product has the right features; here, the development
work’s scope is much broader than in the past, covering
the product, manufacturing methods, service, and life
cycle management
● Customer relationship management
● Capability to mass-customise small-volume, high-value
products
● A high technology and competence level
● Competitive pricing and overall efficiency
● Accuracy in delivery times and content
● Flexibility
● Real-time visibility and controllability of the whole
manufacturing network
● Manufacturing network management
● International sourcing and purchasing
● Quality
Mass production in recent years has been moved close to
the customers, especially in the Far East. From the technology point of view, this means that the complexity of the
products and the level of automation are still too low to
compete with low labour costs.
36
In the future, the products will become more intelligent, decrease in size, and have miniaturised components that
make manual assembly difficult or impossible. When the
flexibility and intelligence of automated manufacturing are
increasing at the same time, the location of mass production need not depend on labour costs but instead can be customer- and market-driven.
The main needs and drivers for mass production are:
Product costs
● Quick ramp-up
● Quality yield
●
The following aspects of operations in this field will become more important:
● Integrated enterprise management
● Fully integrated. optimised design and manufacturing
● Intelligent processes and equipment
● Flexible decentralised operations
● Plug and Play interoperability
The elements most relevant to manufacturing in Finland
are:
● Flexible, cost-effective manufacturing of project and
small-volume products
● Manufacturing of demanding and more intelligent
mass-customised products
Today, Finnish competitiveness in these types of manufacturing is very much related to willingness to create bespoke
products with a short delivery time and relatively low
price.
Manufacturing still is based on flexibility, manual finetuning, and control, in spite of the fact that companies have
invested heavily in ERP systems.
By utilising modern technologies such as integrated sales,
ICT tools for design and manufacturing, RFID, and flexible self-learning Plug and Play automation, Finland can
build a real competitive edge in manufacture of small-volume, mass-customised products.
The needs and drivers are:
Management of the total end-to-end process
● Modelling and simulation
● Flexible, fast, cost-optimised production of
mass-customised products
● Improved efficiency
● Manufacturing network management and control
● Technology and competence level
– Plug and Play flexibility
– Self-learning automation
– Level of integration
– ICT
●
●
4.4.4 Trends
●
Market- and customer-driven trends in manufacturing are
that:
● Global structural changes and consolidation are proceeding apace, which mean big customers, partners, and
competitors
● Big companies are continuing to reduce the number of
direct suppliers, and networking and network management are becoming very important
● Manufacturing in mass production will be moved close
to the customers and performed by the same global strategic partners in all locations
● Other products are either mass-customised or tailor-made and delivered with rapid turnaround and excellent delivery accuracy and quality
● System suppliers take responsibility for the whole product
– R&D
– Engineering
– International purchasing
– Manufacturing
– Life cycle management
●
●
●
●
●
Intelligent materials
RFID
MOEMS, flip-chip technology, bioelectronics, and
conductive plastics
Nanotech and biotechnologies
Life cycle management
Recycling
New, environmentally friendly soldering materials and
paints etc.
4.4.5 Challenges and Opportunities
Some of the main challenges and opportunities are listed in
Table 9.
A key difference can be seen between developing the manufacturing process itself and developing more intelligent
products, for which manufacturing needs new technologies
and competencies.
Another way of segmenting operations in the manufacturing industry is:
● In-house production
● System suppliers
● Subcontractors
Technology- and environment-driven trends are:
● Products and manufacturing that all utilise a combination of different technologies
● Plug and Play automation
– Robotics
– ERP
● The use of lasers (welding, cutting surface covering, etc.)
● Other new joint technologies (gluing etc.)
● Machine vision and digital X-ray technology
A third viewpoint is offered by the fact that provision of
products is being replaced by provision of services. The
subject of changing business models is discussed in more
detail in Chapter 5.
Table 9. Challenges and opportunities of manufacturing.
Challenges
• The number of layers and players in
•
•
•
•
•
•
manufacturing is increasing
Product and manufacturing competencies are
drifting apart while activities are carried out in
different companies and other organisations
Big companies promote strategic partnership,
but in practice price is the deciding factor
Standards and systems still are defined for legal
entities, not for the operational network (one
system supplier can have five different
CAD/CAM systems)
Management and development of the whole
end-to-end process is a focus
Constant structural change takes resources
away from development
The price- and cost-competitiveness of system
suppliers and subcontractors are getting worse
due to heavy investments in technologies and
competencies
Opportunities
• Networking and good network management
•
•
•
•
•
improve efficiency, flexibility, and response
time
Real utilisation and integration of ICT and
ERP systems provides a competitive edge
System suppliers have excellent potential to
make technology transfer and utilise best
practice when working with several
international customers
The level and flexibility of automation have
increased
Improved material flow control is enabled
through the use of, e.g., RFID tags
Subcontractors and spin-off companies can
innovate breakthrough technologies
37
4.4.6 Functionalities
The functionalities, their importance, and the timing for
this field as addressed here are based on the Web-based
survey’s results, presented in Figure 26 and Table 10.
Seamless access to the network and machine-to-machine
communication were seen as the most important functionalities. After these, several functionalities occupy
the same level of perceived importance. It is important to
notice that most of these ‘features’ are related more to
products than to their manufacture. The main idea must
be to utilise the future product features as much as possible in manufacturing control and development. One of
these opportunities is offered by RFID tags. If all main
parts, components, and modules have RFID tags, the
possibility is provided for real-time accurate material
flow control. The same tags would be used to create the
machine cards (as built) as in troubleshooting and life
cycle management.
Very important
Not important
Seamless access to networks
Context aware communication
Machine to Machine communication
Image recognition
Camera
Telecommunication capacity
Mobile terminals
Video telephony
Telepresence
Voice recognition/control
Voice telephony
Navigation
Digital identity and security
Micro Payment
Positioning
Tracking
Identification
Power supply
Mobile Payment
Figure 26. Which functionalities are important for the development of manufacturing?
Table 10. Timing of usage of certain key functionalities within manufacturing.
MANUFACTURING
Already
in use
By 2010
Identification and tracking of materials
based on RFID
****
******
Positioning based on digital maps and
satellite or mobile systems
**********
Biometrics used for human identification
**
******
Daily use of mobile e-mail by more than
30% of business users
****
******
Daily use of mobile Web browsing by more
than 30% of business users
38
********
By 2015
**
**
After 2015
Never
4.4.7 Technologies and Competencies
●
Technologies and competencies must be divided into two
categories. One is related to products and the other to the
manufacturing of the products. While the scope and variety
of the products are huge, the list below is based on the machine-building example.
●
Unmanned operations moving to ‘open area’ from
the current closed area
The technologies needed are:
RFID
● Sensors
● Sensor nets
● Communication band use (e.g., Controller Area
Network, CAN)
● Broadband
● Navigation/positioning (GPS)
● Ubiquitous technologies
Basic objectives for future machine design are:
● To develop machines and equipment that can autonomously, unmanned or partly unmanned operate in open
infrastructure and can communicate with other machines and humans
● To develop new performance-based business models
further
● To develop modern after-sales services and service business models: Service business is getting more important,
but for global companies it cannot be based on local
presence in all locations; thus, fleet management, troubleshooting, and to some extent problem-solving must
utilise automatic, mobile, and real-time monitoring,
analysis, and data transfer (also, in the future, machines
will be able to solve simple problems autonomously or
bypass the problem area)
Key drivers are:
The military industry
● The automotive industry
● The engineering industry (machine tools, earthmoving
machines, and other moving machines and equipment)
● Japan, Germany, and the US
●
Key obstacles are:
● Regulations
● Unmanned vehicles in open manufacturing area need for
excellent automation security and reliability
The main areas for development are:
● Data collection
● Diagnostics
● Data processing and analyses
● Man–machine communication
● Service instructions
● Virtual reality
Manufacturing technologies and competencies of the future can be described in a technology/competence pyramid
(Figure 27), which distinguishes among spearhead (international level), key (strong national level), and related
(needed but can involve partnership) technologies/competencies.
Spearheads
●
CRM
Global distribution
management
● Mass customization
●
●
●
System integration
Enterprise control
●
International
sourcing and
purchasing
●
Key technologies
and competencies
●
●
●
Production control
Integration of different
technologies
R&D
●
Modeling and
simulation
●
Product data
management (PDM)
Engineering
●
Network management
Manufacturing
technologies and automation
●
Material technology
●
Integrated systems
●
●
Assembly
Related technologies and
competencies
●
Financial systems
●
●
EDI and other digital
communication
Quality systems
●
●
Logistics
HR systems
Figure 27. Future manufacturing-related technologies and competencies.
39
4.4.8 Vision of the Future
4.4.9 Summary Roadmap for
Manufacturing
The vision for the future for Finnish manufacturing could
be the following:
Finland is one of the world’s leading manufacturers of
mass-customised low-volume products
The development of manufacturing is based on the identification of customers’ needs, an effective end-to-end manufacturing process, flexibility, management of the international strategic networks, a high competence level, and
cost-efficiency
A roadmap related to manufacturing for three different industries – machinery and engineering, wood products, and
electronics – is presented in Table 11.
A summary roadmap for manufacturing, based on inputs
and the analysis and conclusions in this report, is presented
in Table 12.
In all actions, one of the objectives is sustainable development and environment-friendliness
Table 11. Roadmap for developments related to manufacturing for three different industries –
machinery and engineering, wood products, and electronics.
Machinery and engineering
1980s
1990s
40
•
•
•
•
•
Modularity
Tailoring
Flexibility
Productivity
Subcontracting (the flexibility of
capacity)
Wood products
Engineering
• Big companies withdraw
• Investments in product
from the carpentry industry
• The level of processing
rises
• Support from other fields of
• Flexibility
• Improvement of capital
• Specialisation increases
• The level of automation in
employed
• Distribution of risk
• Outsourcing of production
caused by structural changes
• System suppliers
production increases
• Export increases
Tailoring
Speed
Flexibility
Productivity
Development of networks
Co-operation even of
competitors
• Customer-oriented
2000s
•
•
•
•
•
•
Mass tailoring
Speed
Specialisation
True networking
Internationalisation of
networks
• Companies specialise
2010 +
•
•
•
•
•
production is a focus
• Stocks are minimised
• Networking is key
strongly
• Networking increases
• Productivity grows
• The technology level
increases significantly
development
business
• Strong growth
• Focusing
• Development of products
and production mass
production
• Strong increase of
automation in production
• Growth
• Structural changes in
production (transfer of
production to countries with
low production costs)
• Stabilisation
• Structural changes
Table 12. Summary roadmap for manufacturing.
MANUFACTURING
Key trends
• The level of integration is increasing, more focus is put on end-to-end processes, and fully integrated ERP systems
enter use not only for individual companies but for the whole network
• In large-volume and mass production, the level of automation is increasing, making the selection of production
location more customer-driven than labour-cost-driven
• Online real-time follow-up and management of material flow are more and more important
• The intelligence of the end products produced and of the manufacturing machines and equipment is increasing
constantly (e.g., monitoring, diagnostics, and wireless M2M and M2P communication)
Situation in 2007
• Sophisticated and integrated ERP systems are in use, but these are missing the real-time monitoring and
feedback – changes still require manual decisions and actions
• Some kinds of identification and location tags are in pilot use (RFID)
• Automated manufacturing systems have high flexibility, and wireless M2M and M2P communication see
increasing use in real-time performance and condition monitoring
Situation in 2010
• Sophisticated and integrated ERP systems cover whole networks, providing for real-time monitoring and feedback;
some changes are made automatically and don’t need human decisions or actions
• Identification and location tags are widely used: RFID tags are left on the components, subassemblies, and complete
products, and these convey manufacturing, performance, condition, and even recycling information
• Automated manufacturing systems have limited capability of ‘self-adjustment’; there is great flexibility in volume,
product size, materials, etc.; and wireless M2M and M2P communication are commonly used in real-time
performance and condition monitoring
Situation in 2015
• Way of operation
– Wide use of virtual reality with the customer for simulation of mass-customised products
– Emulator that generates the customised product structure from built and tested modules in the piloting stage
– Part-automated generation of purchase orders (manufacturing, components, etc.)
– Fully integrated ERP systems (real-time information available to all stakeholders)
– Continuous performance and condition monitoring, troubleshooting, and some self-repair
• Manufacturing
– Machining
Automated, self-learning, and adjustable manufacturing systems (manufacturing is flexible in terms of
capacity, size of the products and components, etc.) are used; the system can solve some maintenance
problems automatically or bypass the problem area; the level of automation is so high that labour costs
are not the driving factor for the location; and full integrated with ERP and wireless M2M and M2P
communication is in place
– Assembly
Volume production has flexible adjustable automation directly connected to ERP (Plug and Play);
the system allows rapid ramp-up and yield
Small-volume products still are assembled mostly manually, but PDM information can be fed wirelessly
to all places and users
– Logistics and life cycle monitoring
RFID or similar tags are used for all parts and components
– Autonomic, ‘moving’ automation is in pilot use: Instead of transporting the parts and components to different
manufacturing cells, the robots move around to different locations, obtaining all product and manufacturing data
via wireless links
I
I
I
I
41
4.5 Business Services
●
●
4.5.1 Introduction
Figure 28, drawn from New Business Opportunities for
Finnish Real Estate and ICT Clusters (2005), presents under the title ‘Customer Business Services’ a number of support processes and services that a corporation needs to
have, and which very often are subcontracted to specialists
in each branch of industry. These services, which include
traditional legal, financial, real-estate, and HR services,
have been handled since long before any computers were
used in business. This group also includes ICT services.
Depending on the strategy and specialisation of each company, other non-core business processes may be
outsourced as well.
Outsourced Non-core Business Processes
Companies always have sought competitiveness and focus
by defining their core competencies and processes and by
subcontracting (outsourcing) non-core services to companies for whom these services are the core area of competence. The result is a network of specialised providers of
services. The main limiting factors in outsourcing and networking have been management and the related costs of
dealing with outside vendors as opposed to doing all necessary activities in-house. These management activities include:
● Finding service providers/customers
● Specifying service content and level
● Closing the contract
●
●
●
Addressing contract risk
Guaranteeing the speed and reliability of communication between provider and buyer
Addressing transportation costs
Taking care of delivery time requirements
Handling quality assurance
Development of markets and fast, reliable communication
between customers and service providers increases the feasibility of outsourcing. The possibility of linking external
resources to value chains has grown to global scale. Generally, at least bigger companies have learned outsourcing.
Outsourcing of processes to specialists need not always be
driven by direct cost; external service providers can bring
standardisation, better quality, and functionality that one’s
own resources do not allow.
We believe that outsourcing will continue in the coming
years and that its geographical scope will increase. Proper
understanding of how the parts of new value networks are
linked together is important and improving.
Human resource management, real-estate and location services, and ICT, where mobile value-added services will
have a significant impact, are discussed in further detail below.
Human Resource Management
Human resource services form the company’s link to the
personnel and more generally to those people who may
contribute to the work of the company. The main aspects of
Figure 28. The role of service providers integrated with the customer
business (from New Business Opportunities for Finnish Real Estate and
ICT Clusters, 2005).
42
the operations are recruitment, management of employment contracts and conditions, and development of the
skills and motivation of the personnel.
The use of ICT-enabled remote work has been increasing
slowly. Mobile technologies will not cause a revolution in
traditional job structures but will improve the efficiency
and flexibility of information-related work. The spectrum
of job types will broaden also: HR systems will support the
utilisation of creativity by enabling flexibility – with the
best resources for each job, and flexibility of working arrangements for those who appreciate it. This will create a
new increase in ‘untypical’ employment contracts. The
management of information security (IS) in a network of
different partnerships and different levels of association of
persons with companies will cause challenges for HR management, among these being how to keep safe track of access rights of temporary employees of a subcontractor’s
subcontractor. Technological solutions for identification
and authentication of persons are available, and, e.g., biometric identification methods are improving. Privacy protection laws will impose limits in many countries, affecting
fail-safe and effective information security systems.
Security issues related to HR are a challenging part of the
total problematic of privacy–security–trust related to new
service structures and networks. There are technological
concerns also. An essential enabler of business services is
the handling of digital identity and security throughout entire processes, covering fixed as well as mobile access to
the resources. Now providers of applications have to build
secure access and authentication/authorisation methods on
a case-by-case basis in many industries. It is likely that, by
2010 more service providers will be able to provide secure
access services for use as part of various industry vertical
solutions. This may include the technology only but also
could be enhanced to include trusted third-party services
for various transactions and relationships.
In the development of mobile business process applications, it is an advantage to be able to develop richer applications in the PC domain with the same application development tools as at mobile client level. The present strict division between the phone world and PC world probably will
disappear.
Collaboration tools enable better teamwork over distances.
Teleconferencing will be part of the standard PC environment by 2010 and finally become commonplace also in
smaller companies. Teleconferences will not replace personal presence but, rather, enable quicker and more focused meetings and support mobile work.
Real-estate and Location Services
Real-estate and location services provide the link of business processes to locations, buildings, and other man-built
physical infrastructure. Due to a standardised approach
originating from national surveying bodies, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) already are quite advanced, but
the data formats vary from country to country. The Infrastructure for Spatial Information in Europe (INSPIRE) proposal aims at an EU-wide standard for presentation of geographic data. Whereas geographic data (in the form of
maps) is quite well digitised, what describes buildings remains largely on paper alone. New buildings are designed
on the basis of digital data, but, since there is no standardisation between constructors, the integration of geographical data, building infrastructure data, and functional data
of building users will proceed very slowly.
Section 4.3 deals with construction and building maintenance issues in more detail.
ICT Services
ICT services provide a company with access to the rapidly
growing world of ICT infrastructure and applications. The
trend toward outsourcing in ICT will continue, and those
integrators able to take highest-level responsibility for all
systems and applications will have an increasingly large
role but also encounter fierce competition. Companies do
the outsourcing in a cost-conscious manner, but the main
driver will be the quality and reliability of service.
At the second level, providing services to system integrators, there is a large and growing ecosystem of specialised
vendors of applications, services, solutions, and equipment. Some confusion about the role of different service
providers in the field of information processing will continue: Telecommunication operators have tried to take on
more integrator-type ICT responsibilities, leveraging the
mobile applications, and, e.g., financial consultants may
enter fields related to information security. The trend will
be that, as conventional business applications, mobile applications, and communication infrastructure converge,
there will be need for overall integrators to provide maintenance for all company infrastructures.
4.5.2 Vertical Business Applications
Vertical business applications are electronic services that
are broadly used in a variety of industries. For example,
ERP and CRM systems are traditional business applications where mobility will bring new features. Personal information management (PIM) was not chosen as an area of
focus for this report.
43
Enterprise Resource Planning
Customer Relationship Management
An ERP system presents a digitised dynamic model of the
entire business process of the company concerned, including data on the actual physical flow of materials, planning
tools and plans for production, and detailed monetary values over the whole business process. It communicates outward to customers, banks, and suppliers in the form of orders, invoices, payments, etc. The model is used for documenting, monitoring, and predicting the business process.
The use of CRM systems links the business process to its
customers by modelling the customer base and providing
tools to provide customers with focused and tailored actions, such as marketing messages, product offers, or focused pricing. Mobile applications make the biggest impact in CRM through context-sensitive data processing.
Privacy protection probably is going to limit combining of
stored customer data with position information and active
addressing of mobile customers with place-dependent
messages, but user-initiated enquiries in, e.g., shopping
malls or on the roads will be possible in a few places by
2010 and commonplace by 2015.
There are two major aspects to the development and transformation of ERP systems – namely, increased networking with other members of company networks and improved synchronisation of the computer model with the
real world, where mobile and wireless technologies can
play a vital role.
When companies grow into networks of specialised providers of different services, the ERP of a company will
have to include models of the whole network in order to facilitate supply chain management (SCM). Visualisation,
forecasting, and optimisation tools for networks will see
increasing use.
Technological possibilities for mobile tracing, tracking,
and identification of items will improve the timelines and
accuracy of ERP models.
Not important
In the Web-based survey, the following results, illustrated
in Figure 29 and Table 13, were obtained. Digital identity
and security, seamless access to networks, identification,
and context-aware communications were seen as the most
important functionalities for the further development of
business services.
All of the functionalities considered were seen as being
widely adopted today or being in broad use in 2010, except
for mobile Web browsing and mobile e-mail, where some
further growth is expected in 2015 still.
Very important
Seamless access to networks
Identification
Digital identity and security
Mobile terminals
Context aware communication
Positioning
Navigation
Machine to Machine communication
Telepresence
Power supply
Tracking
Mobile Payment
Telecommunication capacity
Voice telephony
Micro Payment
Camera
Video telephony
Voice recognition/control
Image recognition
Figure 29. Which functionalities are important for the development of business services?
44
Table 13. Timing of usage of certain key functionalities within business services.Conclusions on the Sectors under Focus
Business services
Already
in use
By 2010
Identification and tracking of investment
goods based on RFID
******
**
Identification and tracking of consumer
goods based on RFID
***
****
Positioning/navigation based on digital
maps and satellite or mobile systems
********
*
Biometrics used for human identification
**
******
Daily use of mobile e-mail by more than
30% of business users
****
****
*
**
******
*
Daily use of mobile Web browsing by
more than 30% of business users
4.6 Conclusions on the Sectors
under Focus
A summary of the developments in the sectors of industry
considered in the report – i.e., traffic and logistics, construction, manufacturing, and business services – is presented in Figure 30, below.
By 2015
After 2015
Never
The overall development can be conceptualised through a
description of four layers:
● Models existing only in people’s minds
● Business and process models
● Digital content
● The physical world
The key is seamless communications across these layers’
boundaries.
Figure 30. Conceptualised development through a description of four layers.
45
The development stages and their expected timing are described in Table 14.
Table 14. Roadmap for development of the layered model.
Business and process
models
2007
2010
• Well defined within
46
Communications
between digital and
physical world
• Islands
• Sporadic
• Connection of islands in
• In certain areas
companies
• Well defined for whole
value networks
• Defined for dynamically
2015
Digitised content
changing value
networks
progress
• Visibility of a common
basic level
• Systematic and with
good transparency
5 Business Models, Functionality and Services,
and Content
5.1 Business Models
5.1.1 Introduction
Business models are changing continuously, but more radical change is occurring right now due to the stage of development of the Internet and mobility.
It is very difficult, even impossible, to pin down future
business models. What is more important is to determine
the enablers and various concepts for business models. At
the end of the day, each player must specify his own business models. Only the business model platforms and concepts may be defined in advance.
One of the keys for this development is the removal of barriers – technical, political, policy, standards, regulator-related, IPR-based, etc.
What is clear is that the traditional value chains are breaking down and new value nets including new players are
emerging. This is happening in relation to both industry
verticals and technologies along with technology platforms. In the next two sections of the report, these two dimensions are discussed, first the business models related to
industry verticals, then technologies.
Some of the underlying key changes are a more central role
for service business, development of digitalisation, and the
continued effects of Moore’s law.
The WWRF describes the overall future end-to-end model
by way of the so-called Reference Cake Model for
I-Centric Communications, presented in Figure 31. One of
the important aspects of this model is the ‘I-centric’ view,
in which the user – ‘I’ – is the starting point, as opposed to
that position being held by, e.g., technology or business.
Figure 31. Reference Cake Model for I-Centric Communications (Global Visions of a Wireless
World, 2006).
47
Overall there will be a rich multitude of suppliers and users, creating many business opportunities also for new
players.
Pricing models from the user perspective are crucial in
terms of usage penetration. If pricing is based on price per
bit, there are clear barriers. If flat-rate pricing models are
used, usage is encouraged and penetration rates grow.
5.1.2 Industry Vertical Dimension
One of the bottlenecks is pricing (for mobile roaming), and
the future will see the capacity of international connections
again become an important issue.
Business Model Changes
Media and entertainment are driving the overall development right now. The key developments are:
● Digital convergence
● Mobility
● A truly mobile Internet
What will be the business models and rules of the game in
the future in addition to the above media and entertainment’s roles as drivers? Will IT rules enter the mobility
space? Will mobility rules extend to the Internet or vice
versa? These questions are very important from a Finnish
industry point of view, where the particular cluster strength
has been in mobility.
The traditionally well-defined value chains will break
down, and new value nets will emerge, where the value is
redistributed and, while, the total value may not necessarily
increase, increased efficiency will be achieved. Value
chains will become more straightforward, and intermediate
steps will disappear due to digitalisation; for instance,
wholesale operations may disappear in certain sectors.
Sometimes also new value may be created, but this is not
always the case.
New players will come from outside the existing value
chain and change the rules of the game.
Apple’s iPod product concept is a concrete example of how
an existing value chain was broken down and a new, reshaped value net, with new players and roles, emerged. The
iPod product concept example is described in Figure 32,
below. Earlier, music aggregation and selection was done
onto CD, marketed in a traditional way, and distributed
mainly via stores or expensive mail-order operations. Now
consumers decide for themselves which music they want to
individually select, and marketing and distribution occur
over the Internet. The essence is that, through its iPod concept and iPod product itself, Apple changed the manner of
aggregation, marketing, distribution, and consumption of
music.
Even though the example relates to music, it is an excellent
example for illustrating the opportunity also in the sectors
focused upon in this report.
Many of the new business concepts and models have been
very hard or impossible to imagine in advance. One example is Habbo Hotel. Much has to do with knowledge (or
non-knowledge) of user behaviour.
Peer-to-peer traffic in, e.g., Tampere today represents
about 90% of the traffic in the networks, according to operator information. This has some important implications.
Figure 32. How the iPod concept and product changed music aggregation, marketing,
distribution, and consumption.
48
Firstly, peer-to-peer traffic has increased significantly; secondly, this is symmetric traffic, which is not supported well
by current network technologies such as ADSL (Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line); and, thirdly, much of the content actually is produced by the consumers themselves.
There are examples from more traditional sectors such as
traffic or construction: The maps of the pipe network under
roads in Finland are being digitised, which can add completely new efficiency factors as well as new earning
logics. The forest industry and related logistics form a big
opportunity in the Nordic countries to provide cost-efficiency and added value. Also, health care and related digital information can be a remarkable opportunity for large
cost savings, as well as added value.
There are vast changes in progress in enterprises. Work expertise will be outsourced further not only to companies but
to individuals. A transition of applications to make use of
basic and embedded network functionalities is taking place
also.
Capabilities at different levels of CRM, such as information management, customer data, and data-mining, could
be embedded in the network in future.
The digital world can be embedded in the physical world in
various industries: The next step is RFID, from intelligent
transport to manufacturing and after-sales services. Tracing may be a privacy issue in the future. At the same time,
there will emerge new business models using ‘your data’ as
an example: A black box is embedded in your car and you
pay for insurance on the basis of usage. In addition, an opportunity will appear for new value-added services.
The development of business models is presented in Figure
33, below. The five business model categories presented in
the figure, for a certain resource, are investment-based,
time-based, usage-based, exchange-based, and free of
charge (which can be subsidised or co-operatively based).
Typical development involves movement from investment- to time-based and further on to usage-based. The resource exchange and free models are the most disruptive
ones. Also, often there are movements back from usage-based to time-based models. The picture does not indicate that the development goes from left to right but that the
multitude of alternatives is increasing and that certain cycles and patterns are common.
Another natural development is that functionalities that
used to be advanced start to become basic features and become free of charge or part of a basic package.
It is important to note also that sometimes a very successful service and business model is a bottleneck and may
prevent entry of the next wave of innovation. One oftcited example is the very wide use of text messages in Europe and that this may have been slowing down the development of some mobile Internet applications in Europe,
as compared to Japan.
Graphical
Presentation of
Model:
Name of Model:
Example:
Investment
-based
Time
-based
Usage
-based
Exchange of
resources
Free of
charge
No insurance:
invest in new
car if accident
Annual car
insurance fee
Car insurance
fee based on
kilometres driven
and places
Exchange of
usage rights
of Fon WLAN
access
Wikipedia
Figure 33. Development of business models.
49
Web 2.0
‘Web 2.0’, a phrase coined by O’Reilly Media in 2004, refers to a perceived or proposed second generation of
Internet-based services – such as social networking sites,
Wikis, communication tools, and folksonomies – that
emphasise online collaboration and sharing among users.
Since then, many technical and marketing communities
have adopted and loosely adapted the phrase.
In the new era of the Internet, there are clearly more opportunities also for smaller companies. However, the trend of
going for de facto standards is pushing somewhat in the opposite direction.
Another very interesting aspect of the landscape that will
change the possibilities to provide and distribute valueadded mobile solutions is the ‘long tail’ concept introduced
by Chris Anderson (in Wired, 2004), described in Figure 35.
Examples of some Web 2.0 players are presented in Figure
34.
Business has tried to focus on customers and market segments where sales volume per unit is high.
The community phenomenon includes content produced
by individuals as one of its key characteristics. Other
changes include giving software out and in exchange getting free access to users through the network.
In the Internet-powered era, and with mobility capabilities
added, it will be very interesting to address the ‘long tail’
from a business perspective also. The main growing opportunities now may be in the long tail phase, but – not only
that – it may mean also that the ‘body’ segment, with less
personalisation and customisation, may shrink.
Another example is Fon, which provides shared use of
WLAN connections. Though the company is viewed as a
Wi-Fi community and does subsidise the customised routers sold in its online store, it is a for-profit company. Fon
makes money by charging a usage fee to ‘Aliens’ for day
passes, which can be used to connect to the Internet via a
Fon access point.
Certainly, there will be many new players entering this
field, some of which may be very disruptive to existing
business models and some creating completely new business models.
In these examples, Digital Rights Management (DRM) is
not a problem, since the individuals do produce the content
themselves and want to share it.
The typical example again comes from the music world.
Record shops do not want to keep CDs that sell only a few
units. Today, with the possibility to download the music
over the Internet without high marketing and distribution
costs, suddenly the long tail becomes very attractive. The
cost per contact will go down, but the number of variants
increases. Where the end user can create the variation, as is
the case with music purchases over the Internet, this is not a
problem.
This business value chain certainly will have an impact at
least on certain business services but also potentially on logistics. Here there may exist very interesting new business
opportunities.
Figure 34. Examples of Web 2.0 players.
50
Figure 35. The long tail concept provides business opportunities for value-added
mobile solutions (‘The Long Tail’, Wired magazine, 2004).
This trend may also further strengthen models of discriminated pricing – i.e., the seller of a resource (product or service) may know so much about the purchaser that the seller
prices the resource on the basis of this knowledge.
Application of the long tail concept may change the dynamics also and provide new global opportunities for companies and countries that are geographically further from
large domestic markets.
Customer Needs and Aggregators/Integrators
No existing service provider (operator) will be able to provide all of the services required by customers and users.
This will create networking and new business models. Big
service providers will have to compete with people who
provide different and specialised services.
One of the key questions from the operator’s standpoint is
how to provide the bit pipe or to grab a position in the content model. On the other hand, it is a fact that the end users
do not want to deal with too many different suppliers –
there will be good opportunities for new middlemen between service providers and users.
For instance, Google is active in many areas related to
easy-to-use services that, though not necessarily technically challenging even with today’s technologies, may
have an immense impact on business models nonetheless.
It may well become feasible to provide free mobile services
in whole cities, or even nationwide, that are funded by advertisement.
Web search algorithms will be crucial. The number of information sources and the quantity of data are increasing
all the time. Obtaining relevant information easily is key.
Advanced information search technologies are vital. Relatively speaking, it is easier to develop business models and
apply software for searching than hardware and basic technologies. A good example is Google, which was very good
at adapting, with excellent timing, what was commercially
available.
The information available via advanced search engines
could be sorted on the basis of factors such as:
● Reliability
● User profile
● User motivation
● User location
Different levels of reliability of information may be an important differentiation factor in the future. This may lead to
new pricing schemes also.
From the user perspective, it would be important for the intelligent search engines to develop at least as rapidly, preferably more quickly, as the quantity of digitally available
and accessible data increases. This challenge and business
opportunity is presented in Figure 36, below.
51
Society and Regulators
Society’s role in the changes will be large. Not only the
strongly developing user communities but also the authorities and regulators will be important.
Regulation can be a bottleneck for development when the
playground is too regulated. On the other hand, due to the
number of unlicensed bands, there may emerge too many
networks and also greater concern over security.
A key trend is the drive for liberalisation of spectrum use,
where Ofcom, the UK regulator, remains quite visibly at
the forefront globally in terms of new business models and
enabling business use of new technologies. Some examples are trading, reselling, spot trading, and dynamic allocation of spectrum.
Figure 36. Search engine capability development
v. quantity of digital data available.
Many cities are planning to provide wireless access free of
charge in their area, as mentioned earlier. Free access,
funded by taxes, may become a prerequisite for attracting
businesses and a basic service, like streetlights. In the long
term, certain sensor networks may have the same role.
Traffic and Cost Developments
5.1.3 Technology Dimension
Usage of the Internet has grown very rapidly over the last
few years, driving the amount of traffic up, on average,
116% per year. At the same time, revenues for transporting
the traffic have risen by only 14%. Hence, revenue per bit
has declined by an average of 48% per year. This development is illustrated in Figure 37.
Business models are changing also in the technology dimension in the mobile and wireless arena. The technology
convergence drivers for new business opportunities are illustrated in Figure 38.
The number of standards and technologies has increased a
great deal since 2G. Many companies in the past were capable of addressing a sustainable part of the value chain by
themselves. The number of alternative and complementing
technologies is going to grow much larger, which has created different types of business models related to both
hardware and software.
Traffic: +116%
Revenue: +14%
Commercially available software base platforms have
emerged, such as Microsoft, Linux, and Symbian, as well
as platforms with additional functionalities, such as
Nokia’s S60.
Companies are focusing also on developing multi-input
multi-output (MIMO) platforms in radio technologies, related to hardware and software both, which then are used
by companies selling their own branded products.
Also, more and more functionalities are being integrated
into the same standard chips, which makes the individual
chips cheaper but at the same time increases the development cost constantly.
Revenue/bit: -48%
Figure 37. Annual Internet growth rates
(The Multi-Service Edge, 2005).
52
No-one, not even the largest companies, has the capability
and willingness to invest in all of the relevant technologies
and products related to them. This overall trend driving to a
5.2 User Behaviour
All three driving elements for a new service need to be in
place – user interest, business models, and technology, as
illustrated in Figure 40, below.
Technology and business models are enablers, while user
interest is the real driver and creator of business.
Investments in examination of user behaviour are increasing, but it is still difficult to predict how users actually are
going to behave. As an example, the community-type communications that have emerged in the last few years are
something that was difficult to predict.
Many of the new services introduced have not succeeded,
but some have.
Figure 38. The business opportunities of
convergence in technologies.
The mobile TV trial was successful as a pilot. Youth are eager to try new things, and hence the threshold for trying
new services and applications of technology is much
lower.
layered and networked approach becomes more dominant,
an approach that shares risks and opportunities.
An example of the layered approach with modularity and
open interfaces in a mobile device is presented in Figure
39, below.
High level concept: Example
Physical level architecture
Figure 39. High-level concept of modular design with open interfaces
(Multiradio – Architectural Challenges of Mobile Devices, 8.11.2005).
53
Machine-to-Machine Communications
Figure 41 describes the impact of different technologies on
the functionality of machine-to-machine communications,
according to the Web-based survey. Evaluated as having
the strongest impact are All-IP and RFID.
Context-Aware Communications
Figure 42, below, illustrates the impact of different technologies on the development of context-aware communications, according to the Web-based survey. Personal Area
Network (PAN), Post-IP, and sensor networks are seen as
the most important technological drivers.
Figure 40. All Three elements need to be in place
to develop new business: 1) user interest,
2) business models, and 3) technology.
Earlier estimates concerning the emergence of context-aware solutions were much too optimistic. There may
be mission-critical applications related to location and positioning – and here the real penetration will take much longer than that of less critical applications.
5.3 Functionality and Technologies
In Japan, location- and position-based services are common already, and they are not always regarded as context-aware services at all – somehow proof of how much
they have entered everyday use.
A certain technology typically does enable the implementation of a new functionality or, alternatively, enhanced implementation of an existing functionality.
The collection of information can happen through sensors,
actively sending the information, or, alternatively, through
a mobile phone or other such device. Sensors probably are
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Figure 41. Impact of technologies on the development of machine-to-machine communications.
54
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By 2010, there will be an increased number of new
easy-to-use context-aware services, and the number will be
increased further by 2015.
required before further context-based services can be implemented on a large scale.
Privacy is one of the key bottlenecks. One way of removing
this barrier is to have a special button to push, by which you
allow information about yourself to be used. One example
in Japan is a service that is very popular and has been in use
for three years: The best train connection is sought for you
on the basis of your location and where you want to go. It
seeks the alternatives and suggests the optimal one, with,
e.g., the closest train station and information on where you
need to change trains.
Table 15 describes the anticipated usage take-up of a selection of some key functionalities, based on the Web-based
survey responses of all respondents. Identification and
tracking of investment goods will be very common by
2010, while this will be reality for consumer goods by
2015.
Table 15. Anticipated usage take-up of some key functionalities.
ALL
Already
in use
By 2010
Identification and tracking of investment
goods based on RFID
***
*****
Identification and tracking of consumer
goods based on RFID
**
****
Positioning/navigation based on digital
maps and satellite or mobile systems
*******
**
Biometrics used for human identification
**
****
**
Daily use of mobile e-mail by more than
30% of business users
***
*****
*
*
******
*
Daily use of mobile Web browsing by
more than 30% of business users
By 2015
After 2015
Never
**
55
5.4 Content
Media and entertainment are driving much of the development right now.
Today Finland is behind the leading markets related to mobile media, which clearly are Japan and Korea. This is the
case despite the fact that Finland was behind only Italy in
EU countries to begin commercial mobile TV services on
the basis of the DVB-H (Digital Video Broadcasting –
Handheld) standard, by the end of 2006.
The re-forming of entire value chains and value nets is progressing. Experience is that too early trials fail. The key
criteria are how and when to enter. It is important to follow
developments closely and have good readiness and capabilities to act rapidly when the timing is right.
Today’s media use many parallel distribution channels,
such as television, the Web, and mobile services. Content
providers and pipe providers operate in a net of interdependency. For fast growth, it is important for none of the players in the net to be too greedy. Also, the models with separate pipe providers, such as in digital TV, have problems of
competitiveness: What is a decent profit for a network provider? What drives efficiency? In relation to mobile TV, it
may well be that an external aggregator is necessary to finally make business happen.
There will be much more content that is matched to the end
user. At the same time, production techniques that provide
scaling benefits for strongly customised programmes are
being developed.
Some drivers for the digital home are:
Surveillance and security
● Digital cameras – still and video
● Media PCs
● Children and robots
● Ease of use
● Energy savings
● What the neighbours have
●
A concept of globalisation and aggregation will emerge:
‘Google TV’ will arrive, with 90% being the same global
content and 10% localised by country.
Due to the increased capacities that digitalisation provides
in distribution, there is not going to be a need for licences
for TV in the future. Aggregators who work under a licence
may be in a very difficult position.
From the media perspective, the key questions are who has
the ‘ownership’ of the customer in the future and which
role is selected, among pipe provider, simply providing the
connections; content provider, producing real content; or
aggregator, combining content addressed to different
groups of end users. The expression ‘ownership’ in this
context refers to the position of the player with the greatest
impact on the customer and the decisions that the customer
makes. This is illustrated in Figure 43, below. The content
providers are likely to have a very strong role. Also advertisers will have a very strong role, especially when they
start to know more and more about the individual consumer
and the ads actually include a great deal of useful information.
Competition for the consumers’ limited resources (money,
time, and interest) is increasing (e.g., the hit product in
2006/2007 was the navigator). The future is very difficult
to predict – the Internet was not mentioned in the information society programme from the early ’90s. It is, however,
worthwhile to follow the user behaviour of the youth as
trend-setters.
Google has had a big impact on classified ads. The future
will see interactive advertising. An overriding question is
how the overall ad market is developing and how it is
shared among the various media. The overall ad market in
the television realm has been growing in the US but actually shrank recently in the UK. The business models are
changing: Google’s sales in the UK exceeded the sales of
Channel 4, where Google grabbed all of the growth.
The digital home, which may have an immense impact,
starts with different user groups and places. The ‘play corner’ and workplace are connected to the Net already, and
the sofa soon will be. The impact of change has only begun.
56
Figure 43. The roles and customer ownership
in the media business.
5.5 Roadmaps
An overall summary roadmap based on all inputs and analysis within this roadmap update project has been developed
and summarised in Table 16 in relation to business models.
Table 16. Roadmap for business models
BUSINESS MODELS
Key trends
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Current value chains are falling apart, and value nets are being formed with the value capturing redistributed
Intermediate players may lose their role if sustainable value is not created or alternative approaches introduced
Consumers and media are driving many changes, with, e.g., content creation
The number of services that are perceived as free of charge is increasing
The number of distinct technologies existing and emerging is increasing
– Not even the largest companies have sufficient resources or willingness to invest in all technologies:
Horizontalisation of technologies will occur, with different commercial technology platforms and
platform layers emerging
People will continue to want to communicate
Moore’s law will continue to apply
The technological possibilities are greater than the capabilities for business use – strong technology push
The users are even slower to adapt technology
This gap is increasing all the time
Situation in 2007
• Existing value chains are breaking down, and intermediate players are losing their position
– Examples are travel agencies and music and film retailers
• New players have emerged to capture value in the value net (e.g., Yahoo and Google)
Situation in 2010
• Many of the existing value chains have broken down
• Much of the new value is created by consumers or user communities themselves, and some of the value has been
adapted and utilised by businesses
• New strong players have emerged, really able to provide value to businesses and end users
Situation in 2015
• Transition from ‘old-fashioned’ value chains to true value nets has taken place in most areas
• Platform economics have emerged – multidimensional platforms that serve many purposes and
are being funded from several directions
• Much new business is based on originally consumer-developed value
• Digital Rights Management issues have been solved, through either a standard or a de facto model of operation,
and there may well be two groups, those who pay for the service and get some extra benefits and
those who are satisfied with a basic offering that is free of charge
57
6 GIGA
6.1 Introduction
The areas of focus of the GIGA programme are wireless access, seamless networking, network support, and telecommunications business, especially new business models and
value chain evolution.
In moving further on to the future, it hence has become important to define the terminology after 3G. The WWRF
speaks of ‘Beyond 3G’, abbreviated ‘B3G’, or even more
about a Future Wireless World, describing the fact that
there will coexist many different standards and technologies. This evolution is illustrated in Figure 44.
In order to serve these focus areas and to be able to identify
key differences from the previous roadmap, this chapter
has been structured to address, by section, radio access,
networks, devices (previously called terminals), and security (the latter being given separate consideration on account of its increasing importance).
Each section concludes with a roadmap, which is structured in the same way as in the VAMOS section of the report – i.e., into the following four parts:
● Key trends
● Current situation (2007)
● Forecast for 2010
● Forecast for 2015
The chapter is rounded out with a summary of ‘hype
curves’, for each of the years 2007, 2010, and 2015, respectively.
The timescales forecast do depend on technological developments but very much also on legislative, IPR, and business model issues.
The subjects of business model and value chain evolution
have been presented in Chapter 4 because of the great many
intersections with the VAMOS programme.
6.2 Radio Access
6.2.1 Definition of Terms
The number of radio technologies and standards used is
constantly on the increase, and at the same time the terminology is not unified.
The 2G GSM standard was defined very well, and there
was a quite common view, especially in Europe, that the
evolution would simply be to 3G and then 4G. The reality
after 2G has been much more fragmented, and 3G and
WCDMA – one of the 3G standards – is only one of the radio access technologies being used.
Figure 44. Evolution of radio technology definitions.
It is important also to recognise that there are some geographical differences in the vocabulary used. In Japan and
especially Korea, it is common to speak about 4G in reference to all future technologies, including, for instance, the
WiMAX (Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access) standards.
In North America, the vocabulary used for the subject is
even less clearly defined, and by ‘4G’ or even ‘5G’ companies might, from a marketing perspective, be referring to,
for instance, WiMAX.
International Mobile Telecommunications – Advanced
(IMT-Advanced) is a concept used by the International
Telecommunication Union) (ITU) for mobile communication systems with capabilities that go further than those of
IMT-2000. IMT-Advanced previously was known as ‘systems beyond IMT-2000’.
In this report, the WWRF definition is the main one that is
used.
59
6.2.2 General
Some general assumptions applied are that:
● Moore’s law will continue to hold for the foreseeable future, with performance doubling every 18 months and
packing density continuing to increase, but ever greater
R&D spending will be needed, giving chip manufacturers a larger piece of the pie
● Everything that can be digitalised will be
● Everything that can be wireless will be done wirelessly
● Fixed lines always will be faster than mobile, but speed
of radio access will not necessarily be a showstopper for
most applications
● Cell size will decrease continuously, bringing new opportunities all the time
● Many interesting mobile applications are very close to
being able to attract users; the response speeds have become sufficient, the user interfaces have become better,
and functioning business models have emerged – one
example is services based on local digital maps
There are more free frequencies at higher rates, which
mean in practice that repeater stations will become more
common.
Digitalisation of homes will be a major change. Homes will
be connected to networks, and in the homes there will be
networks. One of the key questions is related to the business models and what the operators’ business will be.
Concepts of integrated ‘home base stations’ probably will
emerge, with a multitude of radio technologies integrated.
The transport to the home employs, e.g., ADSL, and in the
homes the concept provides Internet connections, digital
TV, etc. If the service is priced on a fixed-fee basis, there
can be strong growth of usage and new services. Example
application might be photos that can be transferred automatically from the camera device to the storage and viewing devices. These applications may open up many opportunities for SMEs to develop new business.
6.2.6 New Radio Concepts
6.2.3 Regulation
Today, frequency bands are divided into fixed segments allocated for different usage. However, the frequencies could
be dynamically allocated, with only a rough regulation
framework. New technologies support this approach. This
concept could become reality in the timeframe of 2010–
2020.
The importance of ‘cognitive radios’ will increase. The terminal or base station searches for the most suitable available radio bandwidth and communications protocol, after
which the use of the communications path starts. This will
happen first in the ‘infra’ part of radio networks, because of
size, power consumption, and price drivers. Cognitive radios will coexist with the current radio environment. The
first cognitive radios applied in real networks may become
reality after 2015.
6.2.4 Geographical Differences
Japan and the EU are rather close in terms of standardisation related to radio access technologies. One of the biggest
differences is that the EU puts much more focus on roaming functionalities, due to the region’s geography consisting of many, rather small countries.
Because it is a small and densely populated area, Japan is
eager to deploy 4G, while the EU wants to reap returns
from the 3G investments first.
The Asian and European roadmaps and standardisation efforts are well synchronised in terms of the most important
questions, while North America has a different tradition
and does not recognise as strongly the need for standards
and harmonisation.
6.2.5 Bit Rates, Mobility, and Network
Structures
In B3G and by 2017 in the Future Wireless World, as stated
by the WWRF, the target for stationary bit rates is 1 Gbps
and for full-mobility wide area network applications is 100
Mbps. It will be difficult to get significantly beyond these
rates at reasonable cost.
60
Software-defined radio (SDR) or multiradio refers to radio
communication systems using software for the modulation
and demodulation of radio signals. It does bring important
additional advantage despite the fact that radio frequency
elements already are integrated on silicon. The radio access
method is changed simply via software. With the same
hardware, different radio solutions can be implemented.
This approach comes from the applications direction. The
trend started from the infra side; e.g., High Speed Packet
Access (HSPA) upgrades in the infrastructure typically
were pure software upgrades. The infra area is physically
larger as well as more expensive, which has been the key
driver for use of this approach there first. Other views have
been presented, which claim that SDR never will become
very important.
In the wireless communication systems context, MIMO refers to the use of an array of antennas (i.e., multiple antennas) at both the transmitter and receiver. For the last decade, MIMO has been of increasing interest in research,
and it will become even more important on account of the
many different radio access technologies that will be used
in mobile devices.
Also, semantic technologies are going to emerge over the
next five to 10 years.
6.2.7 Key Radio Technologies
ing (DMB). Finland and many other European countries
have adopted DVB-H.
Wide Area Technologies
The deployment of WLANs will continue, and there will
be WLANs in all hot spots. The WLAN standard is living
and evolving. No major changes to the current approach
before 2010 are expected. Operators will not disappear, despite WLANs becoming more common, since somebody
needs to take care of and run the networks. There will
emerge new operators, since WLANs are not of prime interest to incumbent operators. Here WLANs are positioned
to be part of wide area networks but naturally also have a
role in short-range communications.
The direct derivatives of 3G are HSPA and Long-Term
Evolution (LTE). Often, HSPA is divided further, for separate consideration of downlink and uplink, into HSDPA
and HSUPA, respectively. For downlink, HSPA reaches
14 Mbps, and 1.5 Mbps for uplink, while LTE will go up to
100 Mbps. Even if not yet widespread, HSPA access is deployed already. The first LTE systems will be on the market in about 2012 and in extensive use by 2017.
The WiMAX technology is increasing in importance. One
of the WiMAX drivers is that operators are not necessarily
going to get the required 3G licences. The use of WiMAX
will complement 3G and its derivatives.
It is claimed that WiMAX is cheaper than HSPA and LTE,
because the original design criteria and selected components make it so. Some have expressed the view that building WiMAX infrastructure will not necessarily be cheaper
than 3G, HSPA, and LTE at all, when the whole network is
considered and the economies of scale of 3G, HSPA, and
LTE are taken into account. Fixed WiMAX is already
specified and available on the market, and WiMAX with
mobility soon will be introduced to the market.
Short-range Radio Technologies
Bluetooth has a very strong position in near field communication, with over one billion devices using it today.
Bluetooth is a radio standard and communications protocol
primarily designed for low power consumption, with a
short range (power-class-dependent: one, 10, or 100
metres), based on the use of low-cost transceiver microchips in each device.
However, Bluetooth will recede as Wibree replaces it in
many applications. Wibree is easier to use, employs simpler authentication, and offers significantly lower power
consumption. The range is about 10 metres.
Currently, NFC technology is targeted mainly for use with
mobile phones. The working distance is 0–20 centimetres.
NFC could enable many new applications and uses of mobile phones, such as:
● Car keys, house/office keys, hotel room keys, etc.
● Money
● Tickets – flight tickets, concert/event tickets, etc.
● Travel cards
● ID
● Electronic wallet / smart wallet
The relative positioning in relation to working distance and
bandwidth of Bluetooth, Wibree, and NFC is presented in
Figure 45.
Bandwidth
The key differences from WLAN are better mobility and
security; WiMAX could become the Internet access
method for more rural areas as well.
Bluetooth
Wibree
Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA) technologies
seem to be slowly disappearing.
Flash-OFDM-based solutions operating at 450 MHz have
been introduced, but they probably will be rather expensive, particularly because of not achieving economies of
scale. These technologies have their strongest support in
the US. Some Flash-OFDM networks have been deployed
in Europe, one of them in Finland.
DVB-H is a technical specification for bringing broadcast
services to handheld receivers. It was formally adopted as
European Telecommunications Standards Institute (ETSI)
standard EN 302 304 in November 2004. The major competitor of this technology is Digital Multimedia Broadcast-
Near Field
Communications
(NFC)
Working
distance
0.2 m
100 m
Figure 45. Positioning of short-range communication wireless technologies.
Ultra-Wideband (UWB) is a technology for transmitting
information spread over a large bandwidth (>500 MHz)
that should, in theory and under the right circumstances, be
61
able to share spectrum with other users. The future of UWB
is still somewhat unclear, but the technology is intended to
provide efficient use of scarce radio bandwidth while enabling both high-data-rate Personal Area Network wireless
connectivity and longer-range, low-data-rate applications,
as well as radar and imaging systems. Licensing issues for
UWB have been open. The technology will gain ground in
short-distance communication. In 2010, half of new
laptops will have UWB, and in 2015 it will be in very broad
use.
Ultra-Wideband is a good enabler for accurate positioning,
with centimetre-scale accuracy without use of satellites.
Wireless USB is based on the WiMedia Alliance’s UWB
common radio platform, and it will be positioned very
close to Wibree and Bluetooth.
As RFID technology matures, the price development will
determine the speed of implementation. The bottlenecks lie
in commercialisation, materials, and production. In 2010,
RFID will be in wide use, and in 2015 it will bring new applications – partly intelligent environments with integrated
sensor networks.
Millimetre radio technologies, which today are used in, for
instance, parking sensors of cars, are developing also, and
these may become interesting low-cost elements for indoor
sensor applications. The latest development related to
millimetre radio technologies, however, is the new
WirelessHD (for ‘Wireless High-Definition’) group, established in November 2006. Six large Japanese and Korean
consumer electronics companies formed this group, which
aims to use 60-GHz radios that could carry uncompressed
high-definition video across the living room at 5 Gbps. The
cost of the technology, the maximum range of about 10
metres, and the lack of penetration through walls are the
key challenges with this technology.
6.2.8 Summary and Roadmap
A summary of the take-up of different radio technologies is
presented in Figure 46, below.
Figure 47, below, describes the 3GSM (2G, 3G, and LTE)
evolution path in terms of availability of technology and
typical end user bit rates. The term ‘3GSM’ is widely used
to describe the evolution from 2G to 3G and beyond.
Table 17 provides a comparison of some different technology alternatives.
It has become very clear that the path of the future is not a
matter of which one technology or standard will be used for
radio access but, rather, one of the coexistence of many
complementary technologies and standards. Interoperability
will become even more important and crucial than today.
The positioning and coexistence of the short-range communications technologies were presented above in Figure 45.
Figures 48 and 49, below, present in summary form the positioning of the most important long-distance communications technologies – WLAN, WiMAX, and HSPA/LTE –
in relation to bandwidth, price, and mobility.
Figure 46. Estimated take-up of different technologies by 2009 (3G Evolution – the
Trusted Road Ahead, 2005).
62
Figure 47. 3GSM evolution path (3G Evolution – the Trusted Road Ahead, 2005).
Table 17. Comparison of different technology alternatives (3G Evolution – the Trusted Road
Ahead, 2005).
Typical coverage
deployment
3G WCDMA and HSPA Wide area coverage in
urban, suburban, key
roads
Indoor coverage in
most locations
Global 2G/3G
roaming; automatic
handovers with
GSM/EDGE
Voice
Mobile data
Broadband access
typical speed range
Full mobility and
handover support
Circuit switched and
VoIP
Mobile use-case
Practical 0.6–2 Mbps
optimised applications
& terminals
Interoperability
Internet applications
Other Broadband
Wireless technologies
Metropolitan area
Partial mobility and
coverage in urban and handover support
key suburban areas
VoIP
Indoor coverage
typically with external
antennas or dedicated
deployment
Internet applications
Practical 0.2–2 Mbps
WLAN
Offices, homes,
specific public
premises and
hot-zones
50…100 nodes per
typical office/hotel
Internet applications
Practical 1–10 Mbps
Limited mobility and
handover support
VoIP
63
Price
Bandwidth
HSPA/LTE
WLAN
WiMAX
WiMAX
WLAN
HSPA/LTE
Stationary
Walking
Vehicle
Stationary
Mobility
Vehicle
Walking
Mobility
Figure 48. Positioning of key wireless technologies
– bandwidth/mobility.
Figure 49. Positioning of key wireless technologies
– price/mobility.
The timing of the commercial availability and usage of different key radio technologies were evaluated in the
Web-based survey, and these survey results are presented
in Table 18.
The penetration of the Internet protocol, IPv6 and All-IP as
well as WCDMA and B3G/4G were regarded as the most
influential technologies.
Also, the relative impact of different technologies for
seamless access to networks was evaluated via the
Web-based survey, as presented in Figure 50.
An overall summary roadmap based on all inputs and analysis involved in this roadmap update project that are related
to radio technologies has been prepared and is summarised
in Table 19.
Table 18. Commercial availability and usage of key radio access technologies.
TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO
RADIO ACCESS
Already
in use
By 2010
RFID
******
**
MIMO
**
*****
**
***
****
SDR
WCDMA
********
NFC
Wibree
64
*
****
UWB
**
By 2015
***
******
******
*
After 2015
*
Never
NF
C
Po
st
Un
I
P
ive
rsa
XD
lv
SL
eh
icl
LT
ec
E
om
UW
m
un
B
ica
tio DR
np M
lat
for
m
GP
R
B
S
Se luet
m o
Se an oth
ns tic
or W
ne eb
tw
or
ks
W
ibr
ee
DV
BH
Lin
Fu ux
el
C
Sm ells
ar
td
us
t
P2
P
SIP
PA
N
3G
SD
R
ED
GE
RF
ID
MI
MO
W
4G
CD
MA
W
IM
AX
PA
IPv
6
HS
AII
-
IP
0
Figure 50. Relative impact of technologies for development of seamless access to networks.
Table 19. Roadmap summary for radio access.
RADIO ACCESS
Key trends
•
•
•
•
The number of radio access technologies is still increasing
Many of them will coexist, each with a specific purpose
Bandwidth is increasing so that many more functionalities can be used with ease
Everything that can be done wirelessly will be
Situation in 2007
•
•
•
•
More than a billion devices use Bluetooth
WLANs are common
3G is widely deployed, but usage is still low
HSPA is being introduced
Situation in 2010
•
•
•
•
•
•
Wibree complements Bluetooth
RFID has achieved strong commercial penetration
WLANs continue to have strong position
WiMAX and HSPA are in broad commercial use
The first LTE networks are deployed
Home access networks start to play a crucial role
Situation in 2015
Relay networks between terminal devices have become more common
Radio frequencies start to become dynamically allocated (not only by fixed segment)
There is some kind of wireless connection everywhere with reasonable price and performance
Cognitive radios are in use
Stationary bandwidths (peak rates per user) start to be around 1 Gbps in hot spots and
100 Mbps in high-speed applications
• WLANs and WiMAX are in broad commercial use
• LTE is in commercial use with reasonable penetration rates
•
•
•
•
•
65
6.3 Networks
6.3.3 Network Concepts
6.3.1 General
In future, the most descriptive terminology will involve
speaking not about individual networks only but about networks of networks. Below, some examples are described in
more detail.
The GSM standard and its derivatives form a very robust
base, but the number of new and complementary technologies that are in use and are yet to come is immense, and this
will create further complexity – not just at the access level
but also on the network level. Fixed and mobile operators
are converging, and so are the networks as they switch over
to packet-based operation standardised on Internet Protocol Version 4 (IPv4) and Internet Protocol Version 6
(IPv6).
One challenge facing future developments is that the new
standards and technologies need to fit the existing environment.
6.3.2 Standards
In terms of standards, Europe and Asia seem to be more
enthusiastic, while the US typically drives for de facto
standards. There is ‘no time’ to develop standards, people
want to go to market sooner, and thus de facto standards
become the rule. Standards as such probably are good for
smaller players, lacking the muscle to develop or enforce
de facto standards. For end users, standards are typically
beneficial, since then the user is not tied to one technology
supplier.
The ‘MultiSphere Level’ concept introduced by the
WWRF is a different and very useful concept, one that proceeds from a user-centric perspective also when it comes to
networks. Everything starts with the Personal Area Network; continues to the immediate environment, instant
partners, radio access, and interconnectivity; and finally
proceeds to the ‘CyberWorld’, as outlined in Figure 51, below. The user can have several parallel profiles, such as
business or private user. The concept can be expanded to a
similar path with devices in the centre instead of a person.
One of the key elements of the model is that usage needs to
be easy; i.e., the complexity is masked as in the ‘calm computing’ concept introduced by Xerox years ago.
The Personal Network (PN) is again a network that follows
along. It uses the devices securely, follows the user all the
time, and gets connected to other personal networks. The
Federated Networks (FN) approach involves the connection of several parallel personal networks, where resources
are shared, trusted profiles are used, etc. Authorities may
have the right to forcefully take into use FN infrastructure
in emergency or crisis situations.
Figure 51. The MultiSphere Level Concept (The Wireless World Research Forum
–Global Visions of a Wireless World, 2006).
66
The difference between PANs and PNs is that PANs focus
primarily on the radio access only; PAN development will
be restricted somewhat by the multitude of competing candidate technologies and standards for wireless short-range
communication.
How will the networks be composed? It is not clear what an
element is. Is a terminal a terminal, or is it actually at the
same time a repeater station – i.e., a network element? Is a
railway car a network?
The digital home concept is on its way; one example of a
new application is secure storage for photos. The digital
home involves not just a radio access question but a very
important networking change as well. Home networks will
be an important change driver, and the related changes
have only started. The key drivers for these future investments will be both cost and value, not to forget security and
ease of use. Internet Protocol Television (IPTV) probably
will be one key application even in the near future. There
are strong reasons to believe that IPTV could be the main
driver for the digital home also in China. It should be simple enough to adapt to (also for older people), and it offers a
large screen and comfortable environment.
There soon will be – perhaps even via government regulations – a fibre link to almost every home in developed
countries.
There were great expectations for machine-to-machine
(M2M) interaction in the mid-’90s, but then telecoms technology developed much more rapidly than automation did.
In 2010 to 2015, telecommunications and automation
probably are going to be convergent again. Figure 52 describes the image for future utilisation of ubiquitous network technology (see Development of Broadband Technologies and Business, 2006).
Smart dust – i.e., self-co-ordinating flocks of miniature or
nano-scale robots performing tasks as a team – is an interesting futuristic idea, but it remains to be seen whether it
ever will be real. Some applications may exist in 2015; the
main problems, however, are related to networking, power
supply, and eventually biodegradability.
6.3.4 Hand-over, Interoperability, and
Quality of Service
The vision for the future involves networks of networks,
where vertical hand-over operations (between networks)
occur invisibly to the user. The quality-of-service (QoS)
angle is very important here. The future will see a multitude of networks, due to different optimisation priorities,
such as coverage, data rates, propagation, and mobility.
Any network needs to be able to connect to any other.
There will be a need for a lot of fast cross-layer communication, and the protocols of the layers being different in-
Figure 52. The image of future utilisation of ubiquitous network technology (Development of
Broadband Technologies and Business, 2006).
67
creases complexity. For instance, the necessary security
checks must not delay the service. Issues related to both
protocols and business models need resolution.
The end-to-end connection must be reliable, so the QoS
and performance requirements have growing importance,
from a network as well as application point of view.
6.3.5 Capacity
Bandwidth between the access network and the core network is likely to become the next real bottleneck, due to
significant bandwidth increases in the access network. As
richer content becomes more common and usage grows,
the availability of bandwidth will become a problem. This
eventually will lead to bottlenecks in the core network
again. A simple rule applies: All available bandwidth will
be used in the long term.
Figure 53 shows the typical data rates needed for some
common applications, as well as the rates provided by
some cellular technologies.
6.3.6 IP Versions and Next Generations
Deployment of IPv6 technology, which exists today, will be
dependent on the changeover costs. Some of the key features
of IPv6 are that the address space increases significantly, the
‘options field’ is much broader, and some features support
mobile applications better. ‘Light’ versions of IPv6 are being developed for sensor network applications.
The current IP versions have severe limitations, however.
The fundaments of IP were designed some 30 years ago.
Now there are significant new needs, such as:
● Mobility
● Sensor network connections
● Different types of networks
● Different types of nodes – not only computers but, e.g.,
mobile phones and Personal Digital Assistants (PDAs)
● Greater security
Today’s IP implementation is, in addition, not necessarily
cost-effective; overheads are very high; multimedia applications consume excessive bandwidth; and IP service has
delays.
Figure 53. Application data rates required and delivered by cellular technologies (The MultiService Edge, 2005).
68
Currently discussions are under way in relation to Post-IP
network and Next Generation Network (NGN) development, which is being standardised at ITU level. It is
claimed that the NGN, in essence, just replaces the current
network with IP – serving as an extension of the telecoms
network.
ity and multiplicity of solutions increases. There also is an
increasing need to remain up to date, with an ever-increasing pace. Thus, networking of people – even through communities, as described in earlier sections – becomes more
essential and is the recipe for facing the above challenges.
Europe and Japan are collaborating well on the Post-IP
front, while the US seems to have somewhat different
views. The current estimates are that the first Post-IP networks could be operational in 2015–2020.
6.3.8 Summary and Roadmap
The network is, however, changing only gradually. The
Post-IP world is most likely to include sensors and cognitive and context functionalities. The networking is automatic and robust, and the best/easiest method of access is
used. Communications in general are based on what the
needs are.
All in all, the changes in networks cannot be radical, due to
the huge existing infrastructure. Rather, the question is going to be more of evolutionary networks. Obviously, also
the software content of the networks themselves is going to
continue increasing.
The Web-based survey was used also to collect views concerning which technologies will be most crucial in terms of
development of telecommunications capacity. From those
of the results that emphasise B3G/4G, All-IP, LTE, and
HSPA (illustrated in Figure 54, below) the conclusion can
be drawn that the radio capacities that are delivered and in
full use today are not yet sufficient. It is important to note,
however, that HSPA is a mature technology but has not entered wide commercial use yet.
The timing of the commercial availability and of the usage
of different network-related key technologies was evaluated by means of the Web-based survey, and the survey results are presented in Table 20, below. Most of the technologies listed were seen as entering broad use by 2010–2015,
while Post-IP network applications would become dominant only after 2015.
6.3.7 Competence
Competence issues are arising as well. It is increasingly
hard to gather ‘all of the experts’ (those with expertise in,
e.g., security, performance, and standards) as the complex-
An overall summary roadmap based on all inputs and analysis considered in this roadmap update project has been
summarised in Table 21 where network technologies are
concerned.
SIP
SD
R
ED
GE
W
IM
AX
DV
BH
MI
MO
Po
st
IP
PA
N
RF
Un
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ive
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P2
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om
m
UW
un
B
ica
tio I
n p Pv
lat 6
for
m
ME
MS
W
ib
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el
Ce
lls
N
Se Sm FC
ns art
or du
ne st
tw
or
k
W s
CD
MA
4G
HS
PA
XD
SL
3G
GP
RS
Se
m Linu
an
tic x
We
b
-IP
AII
LT
E
0
Figure 54. Relative impact of different technologies for the development of telecommunications capacity.
69
Table 20. Commercial availability and usage of key network technologies.
NETWORK-RELATED
TECHNOLOGIES
Already
in use
By 2010
By 2015
IPv6
**
****
**
SIP
******
**
All-IP
*
***
****
PAN
*
****
**
***
*****
*
**
******
4G
Post-IP
HSPA
***
*****
DVB-H
****
***
******
**
*
****
****
Peer-to-peer networks
Semantic Web
After 2015
Never
*
Table 21. Roadmap summary for networks.
NETWORKS
Key trends
•
•
•
•
The current core and edge networks are converging (as are the operators)
The current network protocols are being replaced with IP
Network changes happen only gradually and over time
There are significant new needs to be taken into account, since the original IP was designed some 30
years ago; among these are mobility, sensor network connections, the many different types of
networks, and different types of nodes
Situation in 2007
• The edge networks start to become bottlenecks because of the increased bandwidth
in access networks
Situation in 2010
• The first few countries no longer have a PSTN circuit-switched network
• Many horizontal infrastructure platforms exist commercially, based on which system
suppliers build the products
• Virtual peer-to-peer networks have increased significantly in importance
• The proportion of software content continues to increase
Situation in 2015
•
•
•
•
•
70
The first Post-IP networks will be deployed
The network is invisible to the user
There are no more PSTN circuit-switched networks
The home in developed countries will be a digital network of its own
There will be a multitude of networks of networks
6.4 Devices
6.4.1 Introduction
Mobile terminals will be transformed into multipurpose
devices. Many of the traditionally fixed devices will have
radio technologies for communications purposes built in.
The terminals will become repeaters or gateways for local
connectivity within networks, and they also will be embedded, e.g., in vehicles. Accordingly, this report speaks more
of ‘devices’ than the more traditional ‘terminals’ as the umbrella term.
The basic mobile device business is becoming rather mature, but the horizontal technologies only now have started
to develop rapidly. On the infra side, the horizontal technologies are a bit more developed.
Many of the technologies that were described in the section
on radio access are obviously also relevant to the devices.
Often, developments are driven from the infrastructure
side, where the size and cost of the equipment are greater,
meaning that the potential benefits of technological development are initially higher as well. When very small sizes
need to be reached, the development may, however, be
driven from the device direction.
6.4.2 Number of Devices
The number of mobile devices is growing at twice the
speed of PC growth. The number of subscribers will exceed two billion in 2007 and three billion in 2008. The
WWRF anticipates that there will be seven trillion wireless
devices serving seven billion people by 2017. In other
words, there will be one thousand devices per person.
6.4.3 Usability
The mobile phone has become the single personal device,
and has replaced, for instance, notebooks. People do not
want to carry many different devices with them, so
multifunctional devices will be more common in the mobile domain, while those in the stationary domain will be
more purpose-built.
deltas, that are continuously updated. The user does not recognise this and sees the information as continuous, despite the snapshots.
Some of the persons interviewed were of the opinion that
wireless technology soon is going to begin providing the
maximum ‘receiving bandwidth’ of humans (eyes, ears,
brain), which means that this bottleneck of wireless applications may soon be passed.
One of the continued main development needs related to
devices is the further enhancement of the user interface to
become more user-friendly.
6.4.4 Features
Wireless access is a prerequisite for most laptops today,
and in the future they will employ several alternative radio
access technologies, such as WLAN, WiMAX, and cellular with radio bit rates up to and beyond 10 Mbps.
For mobile devices, more and more features will be incorporated into the basic package and assumed to be a part of
even the lower-cost models. As an example, some years
from now positioning will be part of all mobile devices,
while today this functionally is an extra feature.
Voice over IP (VoIP) and, e.g., Skype functionality will become common also in mobile devices.
6.4.5 New Design Criteria
No mobile devices so far have been Internet-optimised; instead, they have been designed with voice as the key parameter. Now some manufacturers have created such devices, which also are called Internet Tablets.
The idea is that these Internet Tablets will ‘mobilise the
Internet’. The Internet will go truly mobile and is becoming
casual. The user groups are quite different:
● Middle-aged businesspeople use the device as a PC
and mobile service extension
● Youngsters and the next generation use it with friends
and for chatting and music
There is an important distinction between:
Internet Tablets
● ‘Wanna be’ Internet devices, such as e.g. the PC
– Smaller PCs can be made
– PDAs can be made wireless
– The legacy from a landline or mobile phone
can be addressed
The terminals of today can do virtually anything – with increasing complexity, the problem starts to be ease of use.
Parallel SIM cards and use of several devices will become
more common. Devices need to update each other automatically, so that the same, up-to-date information is always
available.
●
The Post-IP approach would mean, in devices, that there is
always a snapshot of the situation and it is the changes, the
Internet Tablets have broadband access over a WLAN connection or connection via a more traditional mobile phone.
71
These Internet Tablets are a threat to mobile operators, but
at the same time they are going to increase the traffic in the
networks of broadband operators in any case.
The interconnectivity between different main platforms,
such as Symbian, Linux, and Microsoft offerings, currently is poor, and there is a clear need for further development.
6.4.6 Platforms and
Architecture
A generic picture of the horizontalisation of the architecture and business models for mobile devices is presented in
Figure 55.
Thus far, the internal architecture of mobile terminals has
been created primarily in individual sections. In future,
there will be a renewed networked architecture for mobile
terminals. An example is presented in Figure 39, in section
5.1.3. The cost of materials in mobile devices/phones will
be only a few tens of euros. The Mobile Industry Processor
Interface (MIPI) alliance is developing this approach with
clear interfaces and protocols. For instance, the camera interface may be one of the first to be standardised, within the
next one or two years.
The software platforms on which future mobile devices are
built will be based on competing alternatives such as
Symbian, Nokia S60, Microsoft, and Linux solutions. In
the trend toward an open source platform, Linux is an obvious preferred choice.
6.4.7 Power Supply
Power supply continues to be an issue with mobile devices.
No revolutionary developments are likely by 2010. In
2015, the majority of devices most probably still will be
powered by rechargeable batteries.
6.4.8 Summary and Roadmap
An overall summary roadmap based on all inputs and analysis within this roadmap-updating project that relate to devices has been prepared, and the results are summarised in
Table 22.
Figure 55. Horizontalisation of technologies in mobile devices.
72
Table 22. Roadmap summary for devices.
DEVICES
Key trends
• The number of mobile devices is growing at twice the speed of PC growth
• Mobile devices will transform from ‘terminals’ into ‘gateways’ for local connectivity as well as
being embedded in, for instance, vehicles
• Horizontal platforms continue to emerge: Symbian, Linux, Microsoft solutions, radio technology
platforms, multiradio technology platforms
• Simplicity of use is the most important individual driver
Situation in 2007
• The number of mobile devices exceeds 2 billion
• The first mobile devices to be designed purely to be Internet-optimised are on the market
• Average prices continue to decline by 10–15% annually
Situation in 2010
• It is becoming common to use several parallel devices for different purposes; the devices update
themselves automatically with up-to-date data
• When one is on the move, there is one personal mobile device with ample functionality
that the user always carries
Situation in 2015
•
•
•
•
There is radio connectivity everywhere, and the network is invisible to the user
The user interface has become significantly more user-friendly
The number of self-learning services provided is vast
Two years after 2015, according to the WWRF: “7 trillion wireless devices serving 7 billion people”
6.5 Security
Information security is a subject that is relatively new and
of increasing importance. Information security has been an
active research subject in universities since the early ’80s.
Security issues traditionally have been handled as separate
items, while, by contrast, they should be an integral part of
all platforms, products, systems, operations, and users’ behaviour.
Much comprising the fundamental structures and user discipline is still rather weak. The shift to an integrated approach to security will take time: Even if many, if not most,
products today are designed to take security issues into account even in the design phase, this also is needed on system level, where systems consist of several products. The
fact that there is an installed base of products and systems
that will be replaced only slowly means that it is going to
take time for an overall integrated approach to security to
become reality.
The other very important point is that security is very much a
user-level question. The identity in most cases is held by users, not by devices. Users many times are the weakest link,
and they need to know the risks and realities if this risk is to
be minimised. At the same time, user confidence and trust is
vital, to enable fast expansion in usage of wireless services.
Security issues are becoming more and more of a financial
risk factor as well, with huge monetary risk potential. The
key security issues are moving away from the world of hackers, who generally just want to be recognised, to that of professional crime, where financial benefits are the target.
Today, SIM cards and PIN codes are the cornerstones of
authentication. In the future, identification will be more related to one or a combination of several of, for instance,
walking, grip, fingerprint, voice, and skin conductivity. A
type of ‘secure citizen identity’ would be an enabler for
many new services and ease of use.
No matter what, IP always brings an information security
risk, and users do not necessarily even understand this. The
basic model of IP is that sending is easier than receiving.
For instance, SPIT (spam over IP telephony) will be an increasingly important issue. There will be a need to split
contact lists into a trusted and an open list. ‘Bot’ attacks
may have radical and very far-reaching financial consequences (Internet bots are software applications that run
automated tasks over the Internet; malicious use of these
can involve, for example, co-ordination and operation of an
automated attack on networked computers).
Information security may actually be the key driver for
Post-IP development.
73
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Figure 56. Impact of technologies for the development of digital identity and security,
on the basis of the results of the Web-based survey.
Solving of security issues is one of the key challenges of
home networks as a large set of functionalities becomes
common.
The Web-based survey was used also to identify the most
important technologies for the development of digital identity and security. Included were RFID and NFC, but then
also the above-mentioned Post-IP was on the top of this
list, as illustrated in Figure 56, below.
An overall summary roadmap based on all inputs and
analysis within this roadmap-updating project that relate
to security has been prepared. It is summarised in Table
23.
Table 23. Roadmap summary for information security.
INFORMATION SECURITY
Key trends
• The importance of security is increasing all the time
• Because of the change in value nets, the security issues become end-to-end issues, also outside companies
• The weakest link in the end-to-end chain (structures, platforms, products, systems, operations, and users) is
the target of security attacks – many times, the end user
• Security issues are no longer primarily a question of hackers but about professional abuse
Situation in 2007
• Security still is handled as a separate issue
Situation in 2010
• The fundamental importance of information security has become widely understood
• The complexity of security issues has increased, but there also are enhanced capabilities to address them
Situation in 2015
• Security will be proactively treated as an integral element across network, access, device, application,
operation, and end user boundaries from the very beginning, not an ‘afterthought’
• Advanced identification methods, such as biometrics, have some use
74
6.6 Other Areas
The commercial availability of some other relevant technologies was evaluated via the Web-based survey. The results of these assessments are presented in Table 24.
Table 24. Commercial availability of some other key technologies, estimated on
the basis of the Web-based survey’s results.
MEASUREMENT AND OTHER
TECHNOLOGIES
Already
in use
By 2010
By 2015
After 2015
Never
*
****
**
**
****
***
**
*
***
****
*
***
**
*
Smart dust
Sensor networks
****
DRM
Microbial fuel cells
*
MEMS
ment – where the technology will be applied in scale by
business.
6.7 Hype Curves
The breakthrough of technologies on the time axis can be
described also via the ‘hype curve’ concept, originally introduced by Gartner in 1995.
The timing of some key technologies was mapped in this
study onto the hype curve concept for the roadmap years
2007, 2010, and 2015, primarily on the basis of the results
from the personal interviews. These curves are illustrated
in figures 57, 58, and 59, respectively.
Each technology goes through technology-driven positive
hype, has a peak of inflated expectations, goes through a
time of negative hype, and reaches a slope of enlighten-
Visibility
WiMAX
IPv6
Wibree
GPRS
EDGE
HSPA
FMI
Bluetooth
WLAN
ATM
LBS
WCDMA
Tracing &
Tracking
LTE
IPv4
RFID
Maturity
Technology
Trigger
Peak of
Inflated
Expectations
Trough of
Disillusionment
Slope of
Enlightenment
Plateau of
Productivity
Figure 57. Hype curve concept, results for 2007.
75
Visibility
Tracing & Tracking
LTE
GPRS
EDGE
WLAN
FMI
WCDMA
4G
WiMAX
IPv4
IPv6
RFID
HSPA
SW Radio
MIMO
Sensor
Networks
Maturity
Technology
Trigger
Trough of
Disillusionment
Peak of
Inflated
Expectations
Slope of
Enlightenment
Plateau of
Productivity
Figure 58. Hype curve concept, results for 2010.
It is interesting to compare these results with a Gartner
result from July 2006 (see Kauppalehti, 2.1.2007) as
presented in Figure 60. For instance, the results concerning RFID and IPv6 support quite well the findings of this
project.
Visibility
Post-IP
Tracing & Tracking
Virtual
Presence
IPv4
HSPA
4G
RFID
IPv6
FMI
LTE
Maturity
Technology
Trigger
Peak of
Inflated
Expectations
Trough of
Disillusionment
Slope of
Enlightenment
Figure 59. Hype curve concept, results for 2015.
76
Plateau of
Productivity
Figure 60. Gartner hype curve from July 2006 (Kauppalehti, 2.1.2007)
77
7 Conclusions
7.1 Introduction
7.2 Key Differences from
the Previous Roadmap
This chapter summarises the key changes since the previous roadmap report, compares the key differences on the
hype curve with the information in the previous report,
summarises the anticipated roadmaps, and identifies some
of the critical paths and points as well as the opportunities
related to them.
The key changes seen since the previous roadmap are summarised in Table 25. Because of the difference in target-setting and the objectives of this project, the present report has discussed business-related questions clearly more
extensively than the previous roadmap report did.
Table 25. Key differences from the previous roadmap.
Services
2007
2010/2015
• Community-type services have grown rapidly
• The number of business models has
• Many different business models coexist
increased, also with many free-of-charge
services
• ‘Devices’ is a more descriptive term
Devices
than ‘terminals’
• Internet-optimised devices are on the market
• The number of radio access technologies
Networks
Content
is increasing
• WiMAX has rapidly become a key technology
• IP is becoming the dominant protocol
• The edge network is becoming a bottleneck
in terms of capacity
• The amount of individually created and
• The user carries one personal mobile device
• User-friendliness has developed significantly
•
•
•
•
Devices function as relay networks
Some cognitive radios exist
Home networks are important change drivers
Some sensor networks start to exist
• De facto rules are applied for DRM
shared content is increasing rapidly
• Security still is handled as a separate issue
• The fundamental importance of security is
widely understood
• Security is proactively treated as an integral
Security
element across network, access, device,
application, operation, and end user
boundaries from the very beginning,
not as an ‘afterthought’
79
7.3 Hype Curve Changes
7.4 Summary Roadmaps
In comparison of the hype curve for 2007 created as part of
this project with the Gartner hype curve in the previous
NETS roadmap report, some key changes can be identified:
● GPRS and EDGE have progressed
● WCDMA has progressed well
● 4G has dropped away from the curve for 2007
(however, it appears again in the curve for 2010)
● LTE is a newcomer on the curve
● RFID was not mentioned on the previous curve
A summary of each roadmap is presented in graphical form
below, in figures 61 to 68.
Figure 61. Roadmap summary for traffic and logistics.
Figure 62. Roadmap summary for construction.
80
Figure 63. Roadmap summary for manufacturing.
Figure 64. Roadmap summary for business models.
81
2007
2010
2015
Cognitive radios
Wireless connection everywhere at reasonable
price and performance
Terminal relay networks
Home access networks
LTE
RFID
Wibree
HSPA
3G
WLAN’s
Bluetooth
Short range communications
Medium
Wide area networks
Figure 65. Roadmap summary for radio access.
Figure 66. Roadmap summary for networks.
82
Other
Figure 67. Roadmap summary for devices.
Figure 68. Roadmap summary for security.
83
7.5 Critical Paths and Points,
with Related Opportunities
The challenge many times involves moving from trial operations to real business, even if the trials as such have been
successful.
There are many examples of a trial or business concept being parked or sold and then flourishing under another company. The barrier is typically either simply wrong timing or
the lack of a suitable culture.
There were 13 critical paths/points identified, each of
which has related opportunities that should be studied and
examined further. Some of them are very practical, while
others are more visionary in nature. These critical paths
and points, with their related opportunities, are listed in Table 26, below.
In evaluating these opportunities, it is useful to apply a
framework for cycles of innovation, describing the different cycle times, in order to position the opportunities and
determine the right timing for the opportunity and related
investment in it.
The WWRF (see Global Visions of a Wireless World,
2006) has a good generic model describing these cycles,
which is illustrated in Figure 70, below.
Policy-related subjects have very long cycles, typically
lasting up to a decade. Network-related innovation questions have medium cycle lengths, of typically about seven
years, while terminals or devices have short cycles –
namely, two years or less.
It is important to note that services, with all of the current
technology enablers present, can have very short cycles of
innovation – i.e., about one year. This is why many new innovative services may become reality rapidly, as the examples of Web 2.0 have shown recently.
Figure 69. The Challenge of Creating a Successful Process – from trials to business.
Figure 70. Model for cycles of innovation (from Global Visions of a Wireless World, 2006).
84
Table 26. Critical paths and points identified, with related opportunities.
Critical path or point
Opportunity
• The environmental/energy balance is changing
• These changes will make many new things feasible
• Business is shifting toward services
• Mobility is enabling this change in many cases
• Speed increases and cost decreases
• In mobile solutions, this is highly pronounced
• Individual identification of mass products is
• This yields extensive cost, accuracy, and value creation
gaining force
• Business processes are being reshaped
opportunities
• Entirely new types of business processes are enabled by
mobility: Real-time road conditions, maintenance personnel
management, in-the-pocket Web services
• Disruption, a security issue, can affect Wall Street or
• Opportunities related to information security and information
even entire influential countries
• Spam over IP telephony results in disinformation and
reliability appear
• SPIT filters can be used
has connection to financial impact
• The oil reality appears – the oil production peak has
• Tele-presence and virtual reality opportunities appear
been passed, and oil is starting to become a more
scarce resource
• The market economy opens borders (which may
• Can this be an opportunity for a ‘faraway’ country like
become closed again in cycles); this leads to lower
transaction costs
Finland?
• Is the Short Message Service disappearing?
• What comes instead?
• How is SMS use changing?
• Ambient communications gain importance
• Examples include Information ‘appearing’ on the calendar
• What are the next disruptive services?
• The next killer application after mobile voice may
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
emerge
YouTube – what next?
Enablers do exist
Scaling capabilities are there
Community presents opportunities
Ads have a new role – information-rich?
Pricing models and reputation can be explored
Context- and presence-related services may appear
85
7.6 Recommendations
Some key recommendations can be summarised for the
further work within the GIGA and VAMOS programmes.
Disruptions
It is important to be prepared for radical change and disruptions thus:
● Be ready to ‘unlearn’
● Keep abreast of what is happening in the environment
● Reflect on the changes and be pragmatic
● Ensure capability for fast reaction, and act rapidly
when decisions have been made
standards. The opportunity of these standards should be
utilised, for Finnish companies to be at the forefront of the
upcoming changes in business and business models.
All in all, open standards should be seen more as an opportunity, applicable for all branches of industry.
Focus and Choices
This report had a predefined scope that was very broad; in
order to achieve concrete results in the further work of the
GIGA and VAMOS programmes, it is important to have a
strong focus and select some key areas in which breakthroughs are being and can be achieved, such that these
later on can be utilised elsewhere.
Business Models
It is impossible to envisage the exact business models of
choice in advance, but it is important to prepare for them as
enablers and determine which are the most suitable for the
business and company in question.
Sector-Specific Considerations
The construction, traffic, and logistics fields have a rather
domestic focus and somewhat limited use of international
86
Opportunities
The technology is not the limiting factor in many areas.
There is plenty of room for business innovation and commercial success.
Business model changes should be seen more as an opportunity for a ‘faraway’ country such as Finland than a threat
in the global marketplace.
Appendix 1
References
Roadmap for Network Technologies and Services. Petteri
Alahuhta, Marko Jurvansuu, Heikki Pentikäinen,
Tekes. Technology Review 162/2004.
NETS – Networks of the Future 2001–2005, Final Report.
Tekes, Technology Programme 1/2005. Helsinki
2005.
eMobility, Mobile and Wireless Communications Technology Platform, Strategic Research Agenda, version
5. Prof. Rahim Tafazolli, Juha Saarnio. August 2006.
Global Visions of a Wireless World. The Wireless World
Research Forum, Mikko A. Uusitalo. November 2006.
The Odyssey of the Mobile Internet – the Emergence of a
Networking Attribute in a Multidisciplinary Study.
Ville Saarikoski. Finnish Information Society Development Centre Publication Series, Helsinki 2006.
‘The Long Tail’. Chris Anderson. Wired magazine (online), issue 12.10, October 2004. Available from the
World Wide Web at http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/12.10/tail.html.
Kansallinen tietoyhteiskuntastrategia 2007 - 2015, Tietoyhteiskuntaohjelma, Valtioneuvoston kanslia. Helsinki 2006.
Development of Broadband Technologies and Business.
GIGA Converging Networks Technology Programme
2005–2010, Tekes. February 2006:
Broadband in Japan. Shigetoshi Kudoh, GIGA Converging Networks, Tekes, Tokyo
Fixed Line Broadband in China, Tony Wang / Finpro
China, Guangzhou
Broadband Internet In Korea, Yoonmi Kim / Finpro
Korea
Fixed Broadband in the USA, Miika Nevalainen,
Veijo Iivonen, Finpro USA, Silicon Valley
Kiinteistö- ja rakennusklusterin VISIO 2010, Raportti 4.
Vision strategiapäivitys. Arkkitehtitoimistojen Liitto
ATL ry, Kiinteistöpalvelut ry, Rakennusteollisuus RT
ry, Rakennustietosäätiö RTS, Suomen Kiinteistöliitto
ry, Suomen toimitila- ja rakennuttajaliitto RAKLI ry,
koordinaattori, Suunnittelu- ja konsulttitoimistojen
Liitto SKOL ry, Sähkö- ja teleurakoitsijaliitto STUL
ry, Teknologian kehittämiskeskus Tekes, Ympäristöministeriö. 23.11.2005.
Wireless Broadband in China, Mikael Leinonen, Finpro
Hong Kong
Mobilizing Business Applications, Petteri Alahuhta, Jari
Ahola, Hannu Hakala, Tekes, Technology Review
167/2005, Helsinki 2005.
Wireless Broadband In Korea, Yoonmi Kim / Finpro Korea, GIGA Converging Networks
Wireless Broadband in the USA. Miika Nevalainen, Veijo
Iivonen, Finpro USA, Silicon Valley
E-Business Logistics, Visions, Innovations and Research.
ELO – E-Business Logistics Technology Programme
2002–2005, Tekes, Editor: Heikki Kekäläinen. Technology Review 196/2006, Helsinki 2006.
ELO – Elektronisen liiketoiminnan logistiikka 2002–2005
loppuraportti, Teknologiaohjelmaraportti 7/2006. Tekes.
Helsinki 2006.
Etätunnistuksen suuntaviivat logistiikassa, Logistiikan
RFID Roadmap. Antti Permala, Ajantasaisen Liikenneinformaation T&K-Ohjelma Aino, Aino-julkaisuja
30/2006. Helsinki 2006.
Mobiiliteknologia rakennus- ja kiinteistöalalla. Jussi Kanerva, Harri Haapasalo, Tekes, Teknologiakatsaus
187/2005. Helsinki 2005.
3G Evolution – the Trusted Road Ahead. Nokia/Vodafone
white paper. 2005.
New Business Opportunities for Finnish Real Estate and
ICT Clusters. Neoclusters, RAKLI, Editors: Jussi
Kanerva, Kaija-Stiina Paloheimo. Helsinki School of
Economics 2005.
The Multi-Service Edge, Tellabs Business Solutions
Primer. Tellabs. September 2005.
Multiradio – Architectural Challenges of Mobile Devices,
Tekes, ELMO Seminar. Kalle Kivekäs, Nokia Research Center, Nokia Corporation. 08.11.2005.
Gartner Hype Curve from July 2006. Kauppalehti.
2.1.2007.
87
Appendix 2
People Interviewed
We would like to thank all those who were interviewed during this project for their valuable views
and contribution. The persons interviewed are listed below.
Interviews: GIGA
Surname
First name
Organisation
Ainali
Golmie
Härkönen
Inoue
Jaakola
Juntti
Jurvansuu
Kegel
Ketola
Lu
Mäklin
Mäntylä
Pipatti
Räty
Saarnio
Salmelin
Talvitie
Uusitalo
Virtanen
Wright
Timo
Nada
Jorma
Masugi
Pekka
Markku
Marko
Ian
Kari
Shannon
Martin
Martti
Eskoensio
Esko
Juha
Juha
Jaakko
Mikko
Ari
Steve
NetHawk Oyj
National Institute of Standards and Technology, US
MTV3
National Institute of ICT, Japan
SanomaWSOY Group
Oulun Yliopisto
VTT
British Telecom
Plenware Group Oy
B-Star, Shanghai
TeliaSonera Oyj
Helsinki Institute for Information Technology (HIIT)
SanomaWSOY Group
Tellabs Oy
Nokia Oyj
Nokia Networks
Elektrobit Group
Nokia Oyj
Nokia Oyj
British Telecom
Interviews: VAMOS
88
Surname
First name
Organisation
Aalto
Arola
Helkkula
Hietanen
Hämäläinen
Korpela
Lehtinen
Liukkonen
Lång
Mikkonen
Nuutinen
Paananen
Pekkanen
Permala
Rainio
Seppä
Sopula
Sulameri
Talvitie
Vuoria
Erkki
Tomi
Vesa
Sampo
Pekka
Mikko
Kai
Kimmo
Krister
Pekka
Risto
Vesku
Jukka
Antti
Antti
Heikki
Jouni
Toni
Jaakko
Aila
Rakli ry
Valmet Automotive Oy
Aplicom Oy
Tieliikelaitos
Tekla Oyj
SysOpen Digia Oyj
Tekla Oyj
YIT Oyj
DHL Finland Oy
Procomp Solutions Oy
Schenker Oy
Microsoft
Rakennusteollisuus RT ry
VTT
ITS Finland ry
VTT
Schenker Oy
Forum for Intelligent Machines c/o Hermia Oy
Elektrobit Group
Skanska Oy
Appendix 3
Participants in the Expert Workshop
We would like to express our gratitude also to all participants who provided valuable insight on the
subject at the expert workshop held on 10th January 2007.
Participants
Surname
First name
Organisation
Frantti
Ikäheimo
Killström
Markus
Mattila
Mikkola
Mustonen
Mäntylä
Nikander
Penttilä
Permala
Rantala
Simula
Syyrakki
Tirri
Virtanen
Tapio
Jorma
Ulla
Kari
Ville-Veikko
Hannu
Panu
Martti
Pekka
Matti
Antti
Jukka
Timo
Matti
Henry
Ville
VTT
NetHawk Oy
Elisa Communications Oyj
Tekes
Nokia Oyj
Racon Oy
Ramblas Digital Ltd
Helsinki Institute for Information Technology (HIIT)
Sony Ericsson
VTT
VTT
Nokia Oyj
Netcare Finland
Tekla Oyj
Nokia Oyj
Tieliikelaitos
89
Appendix 4
Abbreviations
90
2G/2.5/3G/4G
3GPP
X Generation Mobile System
3rd Generation Partnership Project
A/V
AAA
ABC
ACM
ADSL
AGPS
AMI
API
ATM
Audio/Video
Authorisation, Authentication, and Accounting
Always Best Connected
Adaptive Coding and Modulation
Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line
Assisted GPS
Ambient Intelligence
Application Programming Interface
Asynchronous Transfer Mode
B2B/b2b
B2C/b2c
BACnet
BAN
BT
BW
Business-to-Business
Business-to-Consumer
Building Automation and Control Networking
Body Area Network
Bluetooth
Bandwidth
CAN
CC/PP
CDI
CDMA
CELTIC
COBA
COPS
CORBA
CPN
CRM
Controller Area Network
Composite Capabilities/Preferences Profile
Content Distribution Internetworking
Code Division Multiple Access
Co-operation for a European sustained Leadership
in Telecommunications
Connected Open Building Automation
Common Open Policy Service
Common Object Request Broker Architecture
Customer Premises Network
Customer Relationship Management
DAB
DARPA
DBS
DEAS
DiffServ
DMB
DMFC
DRM
DS/FH-CDMA
DSL
DSRC
DVB
DVB-H
D-WDM
Digital Audio Broadcasting
The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency
Digital Broadcast Satellite
Interoperability Developments for Enterprise Application and Software
Differentiated Services
Digital Multimedia Broadcasting
Direct Methanol Fuel Cell
Digital Rights Management
Direct Sequence / Frequency-Hopping Code Division Multiple Access
Digital Subscriber Line
Dedicated Short Range Communication
Digital Video Broadcasting
Digital Video Broadcasting – Handheld
Dense Wavelength Division Multiplexing
E2E/e2e
EAN
EDGE
EDI
ERP
ETSI
End-to-End
European Article Number
Enhanced Data rates for GSM Evolution
Electronic Data Interchange
Enterprise Resource Planning
European Telecommunications Standards Institute
FDM
FDMA
FFA
Flash-ODM
FN
Frequency Division Multiplexing
Frequency Division Multiple Access
Field Force Automation
Fast Low-latency Access with Seamless Handoff,
Orthogonal frequency Division Multiplexing
Federated Networks
GIS
G-MPLS
GNSS
GPRS
GPS
GSM
Geographic Information Systems
Generalized Multi-Protocol Label Switching
Global Navigation Satellite System
General Packet Radio Service
Global Positioning System
Global System for Mobile communications
HAVi
HFC
HSDPA
HSI
HSPA
HSUPA
HTML
HW
HVAC
Home Audio/Video Interoperability
Hybrid Fiber Coax
High-Speed Downlink Packet Access
Human System Interaction
High-Speed Packet Access
High-Speed Uplink Packet Access
HyperText Markup Language
Hardware
Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning
ICT
IEEE
IETF
IMS
IMT
INSPIRE
IP
IP/MPLS
IPR
IPTV
IPv4/6
IS
ISP
IST
IT
ITEA
ITU
Information and Communication Technologies
Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers
Internet Engineering Task Force
IP Multimedia Subsystem
International Mobile Telecommunications
The Infrastructure for Spatial Information in Europe
Internet Protocol
Internet Protocol / Multi-Protocol Label Switching
Intellectual Property Rights
Internet Protocol Television
Internet Protocol Version 4 or 6
Information Security
Internet Service Provider
Information Society Technologies
Information Technology
Information Technology for European Advancement
International Telecommunications Union
LAN
LBS
LTE
Local Area Network
Location-Based Services
Long-Term Evolution
91
92
M2M/m2m
M2P/m2p
MAC
MBnet
MC-CDMA
MCS
MEMS
MFC
MIMO
MIPI
MIPv6
MITF
MOEMS
MP3
MPEG-2/4/7
MPLS
Machine-to-Machine Communications
Machine-to-Person Communications
Medium Access Control
Network of Excellence in mBusiness Applications and Services
Multi-Carrier Code Division Multiple Access
Modulation and Coding Scheme
Micro-Electro-Mechanical Systems
Microbial Fuel Cell
Multiple Input / Multiple Output
Mobile Industry Processor Interface
Mobile IPv6
Mobile IT Forum
Micro-Opto-Electro-Mechanical Systems
Standard for music compression (MPEG subset)
Motion Picture Experts Group, version 2/4/7
Multi-Protocol Label Switching
NFC
NGN
NIST
Near Field Communication
Next Generation Network
National Institute of Standards and Technology, US
ODM
OEM
OFDM
O-FDM
OMA
OPEX
OSA
OSS
Original Design Manufacturing
Original Equipment Manufacturing
Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing
Optical Frequency Division Multiplexing
Open Mobile Alliance
Operating Expenditure
Open Service Access
Operations Support System
P2P/p2p
PAM
PAN
PDA
PGP
PHY
PIM
PKI
PN
PoC
PSTN
Peer-to-Peer
Pluggable Authentication Modules
Personal Area Network
Personal Digital Assistant
Pretty Good Privacy
Physical layer
Personal Information Management
Public Key Infrastructure
Personal Network
Push-to-talk over Cellular
Public Switched Telephone Network
QoS
Quality of Service
RDF
RF
RFID
ROADCON
Roaming
Resource Description Framework
Radio Frequency
Radio Frequency Identification
Strategic Roadmap towards Knowledge-Driven Construction
A mobile device ‘roams’ when it changes its point of attachment to
another (operator) network. This requires formal agreements between
operators and is not seamless – i.e., the current session is not continued
when the next operator network is accessed.
RoW
RPMS
RTKGPS
Right of Way
Remote Plant Monitoring System
Real-Time Kinematics GPS
SCM
SDMA
SDR
Seamless hand-over
SET
SIP
SLA
SME
SMS
SOAP
SONET
SPIT
SS7
STB
SW
Supply Chain Management
Space Division Multiple Access
Software Defined Radio
The current network connection is maintained without disruption
when the mobile terminal connects to a new access network.
Simplicity, Efficiency, and Trust
Section Initiation Protocol
Service Level Agreement
Small and Medium Enterprise
Short Message Service
Simple Object Access Protocol
Synchronous Optical Network (US standard)
Spam Over IP Telephony
Signalling System 7
Set-Top Box
Software
TCP
TDMA
Transmission Control Protocol
Time Division Multiple Access
UaProf
UDDI
UI
UMTS
UMTS PS
UPC
UPnP
UWB
User Agent Profile
Universal Authority Mark-Up Language
User Interface
Universal Mobile Telecommunication System
UMTS Packet Switched
Universal Product Code
Universal Plug and Play
Ultra Wide Band
VAN
WAP
WCDMA
WDM
VDSL
VHE
Wi-Fi
WiMAX
WirelessHD
WLAN
VoD
VoIP
WPAN
VPN
VTT
WWRF
WWRI
Vehicle Area Network
Wireless Application Protocol
Wideband Code Division Multiple Access
Wavelength Division Multiplexing
Very High Speed Digital Subscriber Line
Virtual Home Environment
Wireless Fidelity
Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access
Wireless High Definition
Wireless Local Area Network
Video on Demand
Voice over IP
Wireless Personal Area Network
Virtual Private Network
Technical research centre of Finland
Wireless World Research Forum
Wireless World Research Initiative
XDSL x (generic)
XML
XMPP
Digital Subscriber Line
Extensible Markup Language
Extensible Messaging and Presence Protocol
93
Tekes’ Technology Reviews in English
206/2007 Update of GIGA-VAMOS – Technology Roadmap. Mikael von Hertzen, Juhani Timonen,
Pekka Huuhka. 93 p.
205/2007 Seizing the White Space: Innovative Service Concepts in the United States. Peer Insight. 76 p.
202/2007 Five Steps for Finland’s Future. Pirjo Ståhle (ed.). 42 p.
200/2007 Innovation, Journalism and Future. Erkki Kauhanen and Elina Noppari. 88 p.
196/2006 E-Business Logistics Visions, Innovations and Research. ELO – E-Business Logistics
Technology Programme 2002–2005. Heikki Kekäläinen (editor). 91 p.
191/2006 MASI Technology Programme 2005–2009. Yearbook 2006. Eija Alakangas &
Pekka Taskinen (eds)
184/2005 Globalisation of R&D. Part 1: R&D in a Global World, and Part 2: R&D in a Global Economy.
182/2005 Research training and national innovation systems – Finland compared to Australia and the USA.
Sandra Haukka. 154 p.
179/2005 Pharma development in Finland today and 2015. (Updated version of review 163/2004) 78 p.
177/2005 Best Practices in Innovation Policies. Heikki Kotilainen. 92 p.
172/2005 Business Cycle Effects on Start-Up Finance in Finland. 47 p.
171/2005 Technology Based Entrepreneurship and Regional Development in Finland. 51 p.
167/2005 Mobilizing Business Applications – A survey about the opportunities and challenges of mobile
business applications and services in Finland. Petteri Alahuhta, Jari Ahola, Hannu Hakala. 46 p.
165/2004 Utilisation of Large Finnish Study Cohorts in Genome Research. Kirsti Käpyaho,
Leena Peltonen-Palotie, Markus Perola, Tero Piispanen
163/2004 Pharma development in Finland today and 2015. Malin Brännback, Markku Jalkanen,
Kauko Kurkela, Esa Soppi
162/2004 ROADMAP for Network Technologies and Services. Petteri Alahuhta, Marko Jurvansuu,
Heikki Pentikäinen. 104 p.
158/2004 Microfluidics. Pasi Kallio, Johana Kuncova. 32 p.
157/2004 Proteomics – Challenges and possibilities in Finland. Heini Koivistoinen, Harri Siitari. 35 p.
156/2004 Finnish Software Product Business: Results from the National Software Industry Survey 2003.
Juhana Hietala.
150/2003 Towards a Supercluster: Chemical and Biochemical Innovations Connecting Finnish Clusters.
149/2003 Managing Non-Core Technologies: Experiences from Finnish, Swedish and US Corporations
Annaleena Parhankangas, Päivi Holmlund, Turkka Kuusisto. 76 p.
147/2003 Innovative waste management products – European market survey. Christoph Genter. 40 p.
145/2003 The Finnish Maritime Cluster. Mikko Viitanen, Tapio Karvonen, Johanna Vaiste, Hannu Hernesniemi. 187 p.
144/2003 Tracing Knowledge Flows in the Finnish Innovation System – A Study of US Patents Granted
to Finnish University Researchers. Martin Meyer, Tanja Siniläinen, Jan Timm Utecht,
Olle Persson, Jianzhong Hong. 36 p.
138/2003 Finland’s Wireless Valley: Domestic Politics, Globalizing Industry. Dan Steinbock.
Subscriptions:
www.tekes.fi/english/publications
206
07
Tekes
●
Update of GIGA-VAMOS – Technology Roadmap
Update of GIGA-VAMOS
– Technology Roadmap
Technology Review 206/2007
Further Information
www.tekes.fi/giga
www.tekes.fi/vamos
Technology Review
The Finnish Funding Agency for Technology and Innovation
Kyllikinportti 2, P.O. Box 69, FIN-00101 Helsinki, Finland
Tel. +358 1060 55000, Fax +358 9 694 9196, E-mail: [email protected]
www.tekes.fi
April 2007
ISSN 1239-758X
ISBN 978-952-457-364-1
Update of GIGA-VAMOS
– Technology Roadmap
Mikael von Hertzen, Juhani Timonen, Pekka Huuhka
Technology Review 206/2007