Louisiana’s Youth Vote 2012
In 2008, voter turnout in Louisiana among 18-29 year olds increased 4% from the previous
presidential election, two percentage points higher than the national average. But research shows that
young voters are significantly less engaged in this year’s election than in 2008 and lag far behind
older voters in interest in the campaign and intention to vote. So, how energized are the state’s
young voters about this year’s presidential race? What issues matter most to this demographic? And
where does this voting bloc stand on the two political parties’ platforms? Louisiana Public Square
explores these topics and more on “Louisiana’s Youth Vote 2012” Wednesday, October 24 at 7 p.m.
YOUTH VOTE OVERVIEW
National
On July 1, 1971 the 26th Amendment was ratified, lowering the voting age
from 21 to 18. Since that time, voting participation by younger voters has been
inconsistent despite the voting power held by this demographic. According to the
Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE):
Nationwide, 46 million young people ages 18-29 years old are eligible to vote.
This compares to 39 million seniors that are eligible to vote
“Millennials” or people born between 1980 -2000 make up 21% of the eligible voting population
in the U.S.
Louisiana
According to the Louisiana Secretary of State’s Office, currently there are 875,000 registered
young voters, age 18-34-years-old, which represents 29% of the state’s 2.9 million registered voters.
As Schedler notes, “The 2.9 is a high mark for us here in Louisiana. And the youth are almost
approaching a third of that, so certainly their participation or non participation can be a major
factor in any election.“
Following a two year prohibition of voter canvassing after Hurricane Katrina, the state has seen a
reduction in the electorate in 2010. Shedler says, “We’re slowly creeping back. but we’re about
31.000 less voters in that 18-34 year old range than we were in ’08.”
YOUTH VOTER TURNOUT
National
The highest turnout in the 18-29 age group was
55% in the 1972 presidential election between
Republican incumbent Richard Nixon and
Democrat Senator George McGovern.
By 1996, voter participation among this group
dipped to 40% but increased to 49% in the 2004
presidential race between Republican George W.
Bush and Democrat John Kerry.
In the 2008 presidential race between Democrat
Barack Obama and Republican John McCain,
voter turnout in this age group increased again; this time up to 51%.
SOURCE: Pew Research Publications
LOUISIANA
Data from Pew Research indicates, 62% of
Millennials voted by for Obama compared to
53% of the overall population. Although they
made up only 18% of the electorate, young
voters provided 6 percentage points of President
Obama’s 7 point margin of victory.
Louisiana
In Louisiana, voter turnout among 18-34 year
olds in 2008 was 59%. The state average
turnout was 68%.
Louisiana’s young voters traditionally are
more conservative than their national
counterparts. In 2004, Bush received 53% of
Louisiana’s young vote while Kerry received
45%. Nationally, the youth vote went 54% for
Kerry; 45% for Bush
According to 2008 exit polls among
Louisiana’s young voters, a slight majority 48.98% - pulled the lever for McCain over
48.37% who voted for Obama.
FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE YOUTH VOTER TURNOUT
Voter Registration
“Registration,” say CIRCLE researchers, “is sometimes a larger hurdle
than the act of voting itself.” They note that a state’s laws related to voter registration and voting can
have an impact on youth voter turnout. Seven out of the top 10 youth turnout states had some of the
more ambitious measures, including Election Day registration, voting by mail
(Oregon), or not requiring registration to vote (North Dakota).
Online Registration
For almost two years Louisiana citizens have been able
to register to vote online. Secretary of State Tom Schedler recently told LPB,
“We were actually the second or third state in the country in 2010 to allow
registration online.” The process, Schedler says, takes two to three minutes and
just requires that you show up in person to vote the first time. “The reason for that,” Schedler says,
“is to re-verify that signature and picture I.D.” The ability to register online is very important for
the state’s younger, more mobile population, according to Rosanne Scholl, Ph.D. an Assistant
Professor at the LSU Manship School of Mass Communications. “If you’re always moving to a new
place or you’re in college; like many young people are, being able to easily
register in your new location is something that makes it more likely that
you’re going to be able to vote.” Scholl says.
GEAUX VOTE App According to the Pew Research Center, 67% of 1824 year olds own smart phones and the downloading of mobile applications
is highest among 18-29 year olds. In 2011, Louisiana’s Secretary of State’s
Office instituted the Geaux Vote app. “We were the first state in the
country to do it and it’s now been emulated by three or four states behind
us.” Schedler says. Using a mobile device, you enter your name and the
application shows you how you’re registered; if your registration has lapsed
plus provides a GPS map of your voting precinct. This is extremely
important Schedler says, “because we had reapportionment after the 2010
census so your precinct, if you haven’t voted lately, may have changed.”
The app also displays the ballot which is especially handy in this presidential election which will
include 9 proposed constitutional amendments. Schedler says that the Geaux Vote app is receiving
over 5,000 hits and also gets used heavily by Commissioners on Election Day to assist voters.
Voter Identification
Since the last election, Pennsylvania,
Louisiana Gets High Marks For
Kansas, Wisconsin and Texas and other states have tried to limit
Registration And Voter Website
or ban the use of student IDs as voter identification. In Florida,
Louisiana ranks number 4 in the
lawmakers tried to limit "third party" organizations, including
country for voter registration –
student groups, from registering new voters. Proponents of voter
84%
of those eligible to vote over the
ID and registration laws say the laws are intended to combat
age of 18 are registered to vote.
voter fraud. The intent, they say, is to make sure people who are
Due
to the Secretary of State’s website
voting are who they say they are and have the right to vote.
content and ease of usability, it earned a
Others see these efforts as attempts to squelch the aspirations of
number three national ranking from the
the budding young voting bloc and other groups. In Louisiana
Pew Center on the State’s Election
you may use a student ID along with other forms of
Initiatives earlier this year.
identification when you register. On Election Day, though, you
cannot use just a student ID for identification. Schedler says currently the state’s student ID cards are
too easily duplicated. “If we could come up with a standardized I.D. card that would have all the
identifiable marks on it,” Schedler says, “I would support it.”
Political Apathy
A Pew Research Center study released at the end of September, notes, “Young
voters are significantly less engaged in this year’s election than at a comparable point in 2008 and
now lag far behind older voters in interest in the campaign and intention to vote.” The lack of
interest is true among voters of both political parties.
A report by LSU’s Public Policy Research Lab among 2008 first-time voters – the only one
of its kind in the nation – points to a large drop in Obama support among this group. Michael
Climek, Operations Manager of the Lab and co-author of “What Happened to Hope and Change?”
points out that 45% of the first-time voters surveyed were 18-24 years old. “People who voted for the
first time in ‘08 and voted for Obama; when compared to other Obama voters are less enthused
about the direction the country is going today” Climek says, “They’re less likely to think Obama
deserves re-election and they’re less hopeful about the future.”
Obama & The Youth Vote
Dr. Scholl notes that many of those first-time voters didn’t
Misperception
show up again at the polls in 2010 for the mid-term elections. “So,
Despite the attention given to the
a big unanswered question, I think a lot of people are going to be
youth vote in the last presidential
looking to find the answer to, “ Scholl says, “is whether those
election, the Washington Post notes
people show up again in 2012.”
that it’s a misconception to say that
Charlie Cook, Shreveport native, political analyst and
Obama
grew the youth vote in 2008.
author of The Cook Political Report surmises that many young
“He didn’t. Young voters comprised 18
voters were caught up in the moment of the election of the
percent of the electorate in 2008, a onecountry’s first African-American president. “I think in 2008 it was
point improvement from their share of
hope and change and history-making and really wanting to be
the electorate in 2004, 2000 and 1996, but
captured in the excitement and be part of something special.”
nowhere near the heights they
Cook recently told LPB, “And since then, over the last four years,
reached in the 1980s.”
the job market for young people has been awful; a lot of them are
having crushing student loan problems. This isn’t necessarily the cruise they signed up for.”
As to the claim that youth engagement is lower this year than in 2008,
Cook says it’s not down; it’s just normal. “It’s not until a young person is more
settled in their life does politics become as important.” Cook says, “Until they
lay down stakes, in terms of where they’re going to be and what there’s life’s
going to be like, they don’t tend to be engaged and so, this is closer to the norm
and 2008 was the exception.”
Pew Research Center Executive Vice President Paul Taylor said recently in an interview,
“Young adults are coming of age in a time when the political system is looking very paralyzed and
partisan. So a lot of them are shrugging their shoulders and not getting involved to begin with
because of that.”
Millennials Participate in Politics Differently Dr. Scholl says, while it’s true that younger
people vote at rates lower than older voters, they think about politics in a
different way. “For example, young people volunteer at very high rates and
maybe they’re coming to think of their duty as citizens to be not so much
about going to the polls but making sure that in their daily lives they’re doing the kind of actions
that make them good citizens.“ Scholl also says rather than writing to their legislator, “it’s possible
that young people think about participating as a good citizen by expressing themselves on Facebook
and telling their friends rather than their senator what they think policy should be. “ A 2011 study
by CIRCLE about civic engagement found that young Americans were divided into six distinct
patterns of engagement in recent years. While 23% show hardly any signs of civic engagement at all,
only 18% of young citizens are focused on voting and other forms of political activism. The
remaining groups fulfill their engagement through filling leadership roles, giving money to
candidates or reporting and discussing political issues
online.
Electoral College vs. Popular Vote While not of
age to vote in 2000 when George W. Bush defeated Al
Gore for president, despite having lost the popular vote,
many Millennials remember the incident. LSU Senior
Adria Porch’s parents were involved in the Civil Rights
Movement. An unenthusiastic voter leaning towards
Obama,, Porch tells LPB, “I am not really pleased with
the way that the Electoral College works.”
For Freshman Republican Garrett Clawson, the
electoral system tends to weaken his vote. “I don’t really feel that my vote counts such as many
others across the country because Louisiana is so pro-Romney anyway, that if I cast one more vote
for Romney, it’s not going to make a difference.” Clawson says, “It’s not going to count as much as
someone voting for Obama or Romney in Ohio or Florida.” A 2011 Pew Research poll found that
62% of Americans would amend the U.S. Constitution to replace the Electoral College system for
electing presidents with a popular vote system. Barely a third, 35%, would keep it.
ENGAGING YOUTH According to the Pew Research Center’s Internet & American Life
Project, 94% of 18-29 year olds use the internet. President Obama used this platform effectively to
reach young voters in 2008 even advertising in 18 video games online. He also created what Dr.
Scholl calls a “branding campaign” to target this demographic. “He had a
visually sophisticated logo compared to his competitors in the primaries and the
General Election and all of these things really appealed to young people.” Scholl
says. But the use of the online world is more balanced this election says Scholl.
“Unlike in 2008, in 2012, the campaigns of both major parties are doing a great
job of reaching out to young people in social media, and in other communication
channels.” LSU Public Policy Lab Manager Climek says their statistics back up
Scholl’s assertion. “The current data that we have suggests that neither candidate
has a clear advantage in social media which is quite a bit different than what
happened in 2008 when Obama was the king of social media and McCain was
barely aware of the internet.” Climek says, “Right now it looks like Obama and Romney supporters
use social media equally.”
ISSUES THAT ENGAGE YOUTH
Social and Cultural Values Data at the national level
indicates that young voters are much more liberal and moderate on
social issues compared to older voters. According to CIRCLE, on issues regarding
immigration, healthcare, taxes (specifically, The Buffett Rule) and same-sex marriage,
young voters with at least some college education tended to lean liberal in their views, as
opposed to those without. Of non-college youth voters, 44.2% identify as politically moderate. Scott
Keeter, with the Pew Research Center notes that Millennials are “by far the least socially
conservative generation, and it looks like that pattern is going to continue if what we've seen in the
past bears up.”
Support For Government Pew Research Center Executive Vice President Paul Taylor said in a
recent interview, “There was a 34 percentage point difference in 2008 between how 18-to-29-yearolds voted and how 65-and-overs voted. As recently as ten years ago, there was no difference
between those two cohorts.” Taylor surmises, “The current youth cohort is coming of age with a
very pro-government, pro-Obama mindset. Will that last for the course of their lives? We have no
idea how that story ends.” The support wanes with amount of education, though. More than half
(51.7%) of college-educated voters believe the government honestly doesn’t care much about them,
as compared to 36.7% of those from a high school or lower background.
Support of Parties The Pew Study, The Generation Gap and the 2012 Election: notes
“Millennials have a much more favorable opinion of the Democratic Party than the Republican
Party, but they clearly prefer the Democrats on only two issues – representing their views on
abortion (by 52% to 32%) and dealing with health care (52% to 36%).
ISSUES THAT MATTER TO YOUTH VOTERS IN 2012
According to CIRCLE, the top issues of young voters nationally in 2012 are 1- “Jobs and Economy”
(34.1%); 2- “The cost of college and student loans” (11.8%); 3- “Federal Budget Deficit” (10.9%);
and 4-Healthcare” (9.6%).
Jobs and the Economy
The most current U.S. Labor
“The issue that is most
statistics indicate that the unemployment rate among 16-24 year
important to me is which
olds was more than 17% in July. This compares to an overall
unemployment rate of 8.3% for the same month. According to a
leader will be able to provide
report by the Louisiana-based Pelican Institute:
me with the jobs so I can
Between 2006 and 2011, the teenage unemployment rate in
actually put my degree to
Louisiana more than doubled from 13.2% to 26.5%
Louisiana teens with less than a high school education have
work once I graduate from
seen their unemployment rate rocket from 13.6% in 2006 to
college.”
34.4% in 2011. This is an increase of 153%.
Braylon Hyde / LSU Freshmen
The percentage of Louisiana teenagers who have a job
declined from 35.4% in 2006 to 22.8% in 2011; a decline of 35.6%.
Obama says:
Romney says:
Obama believes that the government plays an important
role in job creation, including using stimulus spending
to create more government and private sector jobs.
Obama said during the second debate he would change
the U.S. tax code to incentivize companies to invest in
the U.S.; help increase export markets; emphasize
education and invest in the energy source of the future.
Gov. Romney says his private sector experience gives
him the qualifications to create jobs, which he believes
will come with less government interference with the
private sector. Romney’s plan to create jobs includes a
heavy investment in “Human Capital,” a plan to cut the
corporate tax rate from 35% to 25%, repealing health
care reform and continuing the Bush-era tax cuts.
The cost of student loans
A report from the Project
on Student Debt, indicates that the average amount of Louisiana
student loan debt is $2,455 placing the state 35th for amount of
debt. The proportion of students with student loan debt is 46%
or 45th in the nation. Keeping these figure down is Louisiana’s
TOPS program, used by nearly one-third of all fulltime students.
Obama says:
Obama's FY 2013 budget proposes rewarding
postsecondary institutions that keep costs down and
penalizing institutions that rapidly increase costs. The
proposal would tie campus-based aid to the institution's
ability to keep costs down, serve needy students well,
and provide good quality and value.
Federal Budget Deficit
The federal budget
deficit has topped $1 trillion for a fourth straight year.
But a modest improvement in economic growth
helped narrow the gap by $207 billion compared with
last year’s deficit.
“It shouldn’t be impossible for
someone whose parents aren’t able to
afford college, to go to college
themselves.”
Alexander Duchene / LSU Senior
Romney says:
Romney says he will eliminate programs that are
duplicative, inefficient, or ineffective and concentrate
available funds directly on helping students. Romney
supports private-sector involvement to ensure students
are clearly informed about their federal student loans
obligations and assistance to keep students current.
“We’re reaching 16 trillion dollars in
national deficit so how can we stop this
process of continually going into debt.”
Allie Hebert / LSU Student
Obama says:
Romney says:
Obama has pledge to cut deficits by $4 trillion over the
next decade. He says he would do so by ending the
Bush-era income tax cuts for higher-income Americans
and by restraining the growth of spending.
Romney has said he would cut spending growth to help
narrow the budget gap. He would cap spending at 20
percent of the economy by 2016. Spending in 2012
accounted for about 23 percent of the economy.
Healthcare
A new survey by the Commonwealth
“Reproductive rights, healthcare, loans,
Fund finds that Americans under 26 are increasingly
the health of the job market; those
taking advantage of the provision in the new health
things are really important.”
care law that allows them to join their parents’
insurance plan. More than 6.6 million Americans
Adria Porch / LSU Senior
under the age of 26 have taken advantage of the
provision. But the individual mandate provision of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act
will primarily hit the young and the fit who have judged for themselves it’s not in their economic
self-interest to purchase health insurance.
Obama says:
Romney says:
The Obama-Biden plan provides affordable, accessible
health care for all Americans, builds on the existing
health care system, and uses existing providers, doctors,
and plans. Under the Obama-Biden plan, patients will be
able to make health care decisions with their doctors,
instead of being blocked by insurance company
bureaucrats.
While vowing to repeal healthcare reform, Romney
plans on keeping coverage for Americans with preexisting conditions and extended family policies for
adult children. He is against financial penalties for those
who fail to comply with mandates. Romney proposes to
divert money from Medicaid and other federal source of
funding to the states.
YOUTH OPTIMISM
Pew Research Center’s Paul Taylor notes that while the
country has the highest levels of youth unemployment and under-employment since the government
started tracking the data, when Pew measures youth optimism, it ranks the highest. “If anything, the
optimism gap between young people and old people has gotten even wider.” Taylor says, “Now, will
it last? Are they headed for an unpleasant rendezvous with reality down the road? Stay tuned...”
When, and if, young voters head to the polls on November 6th, it will be that optimism for a
better future for Louisiana and the country that will be driving them.