Wheat Import Projections
Towards 2050
Chad Weigand
Market Analyst
January 2011
Wheat Import Projections Towards 2050
Analysis Prepared by Chad Weigand, Market Analyst
January 2011
Purpose
The United Nations forecasts world population to grow by 32 percent in the next 40
years, reaching approximately 9.1 billion in the year 2050. With such a great increase in global
population comes the challenge of meeting global food demand. Global wheat demand in 2010
reached an estimated 666 million metric tons (MMT). If the demand growth rate were to remain
constant, global wheat consumption would surpass 880 MMT by 2050. International trade will
be an essential part in meeting such an increase in consumption. The Food and Agriculture
Organization’s report World Agriculture: Towards 2030/2050 states that, “Further population
increases will come in several countries with inadequate food consumption levels, pressuring for
further increases of food supplies.”
The purpose of this study is to examine the potential growth in trade towards 2050 by
forecasting demand in various countries and regions where population growth will significantly
strain food supplies. The countries and regions selected for this study include North Africa, the
Middle East, Sub-Saharan Africa, Indonesia, the Philippines, Brazil, Mexico, India, and China.
Based on the population projections and wheat production and consumption growth rates used,
the study found that wheat imports will more than double for these countries and regions by
2050, from 68 MMT to 153 MMT. Specific findings include:






North African wheat imports will climb from 22.3 MMT in 2010 to 51.4 MMT in 2050
despite a negative wheat consumption per capita growth rate.
The Middle East’s imports will double from the region’s minor wheat producers, from
14.4 MMT to 29.5 MMT.
With both the highest population growth rate and wheat consumption per capita growth
rate, Sub-Saharan Africa’s wheat imports will increase by 23.1 MMT by 2050.
Indonesia’s 2050 wheat imports will climb by 30 percent from 2010 imports, to 7.1
MMT.
The Philippines’ domestic demand for wheat will grow by over 60 percent, leading to
imports of 4.5 MMT in 2050.
Brazilian wheat imports will climb from 6.5 MMT in 2010 to 10.5 MMT in 2050 in order
to fulfill domestic demand.
1 


Mexico’s wheat production will grow only slightly, but a negative population growth rate
past 2044 will keep wheat imports relatively steady through 2050.
India will to turn from self-sufficient wheat producer to net importer of 12.5 MMT.
China’s wheat imports will grow steadily between 2019 and 2040, but a negative
population growth rate beyond 2040 will lead to declining wheat imports.
Data Sources
The primary resource for this study is the United Nation’s Food and Agriculture
Organization’s (FAO) report World Agriculture: Towards 2030/50. Data from the Food and
Agricultural Policy Research Institute’s (FAPRI) U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook and the
FAO’s and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development’s (OECD) joint study,
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2010-2019, was also used, however, data was not available
from these sources for all countries and regions examined. FAPRI and OECD data was used in
calculating projections for Brazil, China, India, and Mexico. For population growth estimates,
the United Nations Population Division’s medium variant for population projections to 2050 was
utilized. This data was taken from the FAO’s statistical database, FAOSTAT.
Individual Country and Region Assessments
North Africa (Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia)
At approximately 216 kilos, the North Africa region has the highest wheat consumption
per capita rate in the world. Wheat consumption per capita has climbed nearly 20 percent in the
past decade and by nearly 30 percent since 1980. With growing demand, imports have also
climbed steadily, growing at an average three percent per year since 2001. In 2010, the North
Africa region imported an estimated 22.3 MMT, the second highest total on record following
imports of 23.5 MMT in 2008. The region contains the world’s largest wheat importer in Egypt,
which alone imported an estimated 9.8 MMT of wheat in 2010, 26 percent above their 10-year
average.
The North African countries produced an estimated 17.6 MMT of wheat in 2010, which
was the third largest crop on record for the region. The largest producer in the region was Egypt,
which produced a record 8.6 MMT. However, given Egypt’s large consumption rate, the country
was only capable of meeting approximately half of its demand with domestic production.
Morocco is a modest wheat producer, producing an average of 4.6 MMT over the past five years.
Moroccan production currently accounts for roughly 60 percent of domestic demand. Algeria
and Tunisia are both more dependent on imports, with domestic production meeting
approximately 28 percent of demand for both countries. Libya is almost entirely dependent on
wheat imports due to its large consumption per capita of nearly 190 kilos. Libya produces an
average of 125 thousand metric tons while consuming nearly 1.9 MMT annually.
2 Given North Africa’s very high wheat consumption, the FAO expects the region to have
a negative growth rate in consumption per capita towards 2050. The current projected growth
rate for cereal consumption in the region is -0.08 percent to 2030 and -0.15 percent beyond 2030.
This projection leaves wheat consumption at a still very robust 206 kilos per person in 2050. The
FAO’s cereal growth production rate for the region is 1.9 percent to 2030, and 1.0 percent from
2030 to 2050, placing wheat production at 31.2 MMT in 2050. Despite its negative consumption
per capita growth rate and increased production, North Africa will become increasingly
dependent on wheat imports to fulfill domestic demand because of its large population growth
rate. The UN projects North Africa’s population to reach 245 million in 2050, a 44 percent
increase from its current population of 170 million. This will cause wheat imports to more than
double from 2010 values, to a projected 51.4 MMT in 2050.
MMT
North Africa Wheat Situation
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
51.4
22.3
10.8
1980
2010
2050
Population: 92 million 170 million 245 million Production
Imports
Consumption
Middle East (Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Syria, United
Arab Emirates, and Yemen)
The Middle East region contains two large wheat producers in Turkey and Iran, but aside
from these countries, production is limited. The entire region produced 38.1 MMT in 2010,
accounting for 70 percent of total consumption. However, Turkey and Iran accounted for over 80
percent of the region’s production, while the rest of the region produced only 6.7 MMT, meeting
only 30 percent of total demand. At approximately 175 kilos in 2010, the Middle East trails only
North Africa for the highest consumption per capita rate in the world. Wheat consumption per
capita has slowly been declining since reaching a peak in 1996 at 191 kilos. However,
3 consumption per capita has been growing for the region’s minor wheat producers, from
approximately 125 kilos a decade ago to 140 kilos in 2010.
Imports by the Middle East, including Turkey and Iran, have grown steadily over the past
decade, by 13 percent since 2001. However, imports by the region’s minor wheat producers have
grown much more rapidly. Excluding Turkish and Iranian imports, the Middle East’s wheat
imports reached 14.4 MMT in 2010, a 54 percent increase from 2001 and 34 percent above the
10-year average. The Middle East’s minor wheat-producing countries relied on imports to meet
40 percent of total demand in 2001. By 2010, that number grew to 70 percent.
The Middle East’s population is expected to reach 437 million by 2050, a 54 percent
increase from 284 million in 2010. However, the fastest population growth will come in the
region’s minor wheat-producing countries. The UN expects the population in these countries to
grow by 82 percent, reaching 243 million in 2050, compared to 133 million in 2010. Given these
countries limited ability to produce wheat, imports will have to increase substantially to meet
demand. Consumption per capita for these countries is expected to reach 155 kilos by 2050,
while production is only expected to reach 12.0 MMT. As a result, imports will have to reach
29.5 MMT in 2050 in order to fulfill domestic demand of 41.5 MMT.
MMT
Middle East* Wheat Situation
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
29.5
14.4
4.7
1980
2010
2050
Population: 53 million 133 million 243 million
Production
Imports
*Excludes Turkey and Iran
Sub-Saharan Africa
4 Consumption
With the region’s high population growth rates and low food consumption per capita
levels, food insecurity is a constant threat in Sub-Saharan Africa. Wheat consumption per capita
for the region was 22.0 kilos in 2010, but falls below 20.0 kilos if South Africa, the region’s only
significant wheat producer, is excluded. South Africa produced 1.6 MMT in 2010, accounting
for nearly 30 percent of the 5.9 MMT produced in the region. Sub-Sahara Africa was dependent
on imports to fulfill 70 percent of the region’s total consumption of 19.9 MMT. Imports reached
14.3 MMT in 2010, climbing by over 60 percent in the past decade.
The region’s population currently stands at approximately 820 million and could
potentially more than double by 2050, to 1.68 billion. The FAO stated that by 2050, “18 million
of the 26 million added annually to world population will be in Sub-Saharan Africa.” The
region’s wheat consumption per capita growth rate is also very high; in fact, it is the highest for
any region. The FAO estimates that cereal consumption per capita will grow by 0.5 percent per
year through 2050. At this rate, wheat consumption per capita will surpass 25 kilos. Production
growth rates are also high in Sub-Saharan Africa, but given the region’s current level of
production, wheat output will only reach 13.8 MMT in 2050. Excluding South Africa’s
production, Sub-Saharan Arica will only produce 9.2 MMT in 2050. This will only account for
approximately 20 percent of demand, meaning Sub-Saharan Africa will have to import 35.4
MMT to fulfill domestic consumption.
Sub‐Saharan Africa* Wheat Situation
50.0
MMT
40.0
35.4
30.0
20.0
12.3
10.0
3.9
0.0
1980
2010
2050
Population: 333 million 757 million 1,598 million
Production
Imports
Consumption
*Excludes South Africa
Indonesia
With a population of 233 million in 2010, Indonesia is the fourth most populous country
in the world. The country’s population has grown steadily over the past 30 years with the annual
5 growth rate averaging 1.5 percent. Population is expected to continue growing over the next 40
years by 24 percent, placing Indonesia’s population at 288 million in 2050.
Having never produced wheat, Indonesia is dependent entirely on imports to fulfill
demand. Consumption per capita has grown substantially in the country since 1980 when
consumption was approximately 8.1 kilos per person. In 2010, consumption per capita reached
an estimated record of 21.2 kilos. Consumption per capita is expected to continue growing,
potentially reaching 22.4 kilos by 2050.
Indonesia is the largest wheat importer in the South Asia region. Indonesia’s wheat
imports grew by 35 percent in the past decade, reaching 5.5 MMT in 2010. This was the second
largest total in history, behind 5.6 MMT in 2006, and 15 percent above their 10-year average.
Moving towards 2050, given the combination of a growing population and the inability to
produce wheat, Indonesia’s imports will certainly increase. With a growing consumption per
capita, imports will have to increase at a faster rate than its population growth. By 2050, imports
could potentially reach 7.1 MMT, a 34 percent increase from 2010.
MMT
Indonesia Wheat Situation
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
7.1
5.5
1.3
1980
Population:
2010
2050
147 million 233 milion 288 million
Production
Imports
Consumption
The Philippines
Similar to Indonesia, the Philippines does not produce wheat and is dependent entirely on
imports to meet domestic wheat demand. Wheat consumption per capita stood at approximately
26.6 kilos in 2010. This represents a 64 percent increase in consumption per capita from 30 years
ago. During that same period, wheat imports climbed from 0.9 MMT in 1980 to 2.8 MMT in
2010.
6 The United Nations Population Division anticipates the Philippines population to reach
146 million by 2050, representing a 56 percent increase from 2010. With an average population
growth rate of 1.1 percent per year over the next 40 years, wheat imports will continue to
increase through 2050. FAO estimates annual cereal per capita consumption in South Asia to
grow by approximately 0.2 percent between 2010 and 2030, and by 0.06 percent between 2030
and 2050. Given these growth rates, consumption per capita would reach 28.1 kilos by 2050.
Assuming per capita consumption at 28.1 kilos, wheat imports would have to reach 4.5 MMT by
2050 in order to satisfy domestic demand, which would be a 61 percent increase over 2010
imports of 2.8 MMT.
Philippines Wheat Situation
5.0
4.5
MMT
4.0
2.8
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.9
0.0
1980
2010
Population: 48 million
2050
94 million 146 million
Production
Imports
Consumption
Brazil
Brazilian wheat production reached 5.2 MMT in 2010, 24 percent above its 10-year
average of 4.1 MMT. Brazilian production has exceeded 5.9 MMT three times in the past
decade, but also sank to 2.2 MMT as recently as 2006. Production totaled 48 percent of domestic
consumption in 2010; imports totaling 6.5 MMT were needed to meet domestic demand.
Consumption per capita reached approximately 50.1 kilos in 2010, consistent with the 10-year
average.
Based on FAPRI’s average production growth rate towards 2019, a growth rate of 1.5
percent was used to forecast Brazilian production by 2019. Using this rate, Brazilian production
will reach 5.9 MMT in 2019. The FAO’s global wheat production growth rates of 1.1 percent to
2030 and 0.5 percent between 2030 and 2050 were used to estimate Brazil’s total production
beyond 2019, placing production at 7.3 MMT in 2050. FAO’s cereal consumption per capita
growth rate for Latin America was used to forecast future consumption per capita. Using a rate
of 0.18 percent to 2030 and -0.04 percent between 2030 and 2050, Brazilian per capita
consumption will reach 52.0 kilos in 2030 and fall to 48.0 kilos in 2050. Given Brazil’s historic
7 trends in wheat consumption per capita, a negative growth rate after 2030 is considered a
conservative estimate. Brazilian wheat consumption per capita was last at 48.0 kilos in 1998.
Since that time, wheat consumption per capita has grown by over four percent.
Brazil’s current population of 195 million is expected to grow by 12 percent in 2050,
placing population at 219 million. With wheat consumption per capita at 48.0 kilos and
production of 7.3 MMT, Brazil will have to increase wheat imports in 2050 by 62 percent from
2010 imports. Imports will have to reach 10.5 MMT to satisfy total demand of 17.8 MMT.
MMT
Brazil Wheat Situation
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
10.5
6.5
3.9
1980
2010
2050
Population: 122 million 195 million 219 million
Production
Imports
Consumption
Mexico
Mexico produced 3.9 MMT of wheat in 2010, which was 62 percent of total domestic
consumption. Total consumption in 2010 reached a record 6.3 MMT, six percent above the fiveyear average of 5.9 MMT. Consumption per capita, however, was approximately 51.2 kilos in
2010, consistent with the 10-year average.
Mexico’s wheat production potential is limited due to scarce water resources. Both
FAPRI and OECD project minor increases in production by 2019. Using OECD’s average
production growth rate of 0.1 percent, production would increase only slightly from 2010
production (3.900 MMT to 3.935 MMT). Production growth rates of 1.1 percent between 2019
and 2030, and 0.5 percent from 2030 to 2050, put Mexican wheat production at 4.9 MMT in
2050. Based on FAO’s cereal consumption per capita growth rates of 0.18 percent from 2010 to
2030 and -0.004 percent between 2030 and 2050, wheat consumption per capita in 2050, at 49.0
kilos, will remain on par with 2010.
8 Mexico’s population stood at 111 million in 2010 and the UN expects Mexico’s
population growth rate to average 0.5 percent to 2044. After 2044, the UN expects Mexico to
have a slightly negative population growth rate, putting total population at 129 million in 2050.
With 129 million people and wheat consumption per capita at 49.0 kilos, total wheat
consumption will reach 7.0 MMT. Projected output at 4.9 MMT will fall short of total demand,
meaning Mexico will have to import 2.1 MMT of wheat in 2050. However, this projection is
considered extremely conservative given past import growth.
Mexico Wheat Situation
8.0
MMT
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
3.3
2.1
1.2
1.0
0.0
1980
2010
2050
Population: 69 million 111 million 129 million
Production
Imports
Consumption
India
India is world’s second largest wheat-producing country following China. In 2010,
production reached a record 80.7 MMT, exceeding 80.0 MMT for the second consecutive year.
Indian wheat consumption also reached a record in 2010 at 82.4 MMT. While India is essentially
self-sufficient in meeting wheat demand, this year marked the seventh time in the past 10 years
that consumption exceeded production. Wheat consumption has grown by 27 percent in the past
10 years, by an average 2.4 percent a year. Consumption per capita reached approximately 62
kilos in 2010, six percent greater than the 10-year average.
While India’s cereal consumption per capita is expected to decrease in the future, wheat
consumption is expected to increase as diet preferences shift from rice to wheat products. FAPRI
projects per capita wheat consumption to grow by an average 0.3 percent per year over the next
decade, putting Indian consumption per capita at over 63 kilos in 2019. Utilizing FAPRI’s
average growth rate per year, Indian wheat consumption per capita will surpass 69 kilos in 2050.
9 India’s wheat production will increase moving towards 2050, but will likely increase at a
slower rate than its population growth. The UN anticipates India’s population to reach 1.6 billion
in 2050, growing 33 percent from 1.2 billion in 2010. Using FAPRI’s average growth rate of 1.1
percent, which is consistent with the FAO’s global wheat production growth rate, Indian wheat
production is projected to reach 100 MMT by 2030. Beyond 2030, the production growth rate
will decrease to an estimated 0.5 percent per year based on FAO’s global wheat production
growth rate, putting production at 111 MMT in 2050. To meet domestic demand, India will have
to increase wheat imports from a meager 300 thousand metric tons (TMT) in 2010 to 12.5 MMT
in 2050.
India Wheat Situation
140.0
120.0
MMT
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.1
0.3
1980
2010
12.5
0.0
2050
Population: 693 million 1,214 million 1,614 million
Production
Imports
Consumption
China
China is the world’s largest wheat-producing country with output reaching 115 MMT in
2010. Production has averaged 109 MMT over the past five years and has climbed 22 percent
since 2001 (93.9 MMT). Domestic wheat consumption reached 109 MMT in 2010, its highest
level since 2001 and two percent above the 10-year average. With production exceeding total
consumption for the past five years, wheat imports have only averaged 700 TMT per year since
2005. Current consumption per capita is approximately 72 kilos, on par with the 10-year average.
The FAO, FAPRI, and OECD all expect China’s consumption per capita to decline in the
future due to diet diversification (less cereals and more meat consumption) and an already high
level of consumption per capita. Using FAO’s cereal consumption per capita growth rate of -0.2
percent per year, consumption per capita could decline to 69 kilos by 2050. China’s production is
10 also likely to fall in the short-term. Using FAPRI’s average production growth rate of -0.3
percent per year, China’s wheat production would fall to 107 MMT by 2030. Using FAO’s East
Asian cereal growth rate projection beyond 2030, China’s production would rebound to 111
MMT by 2050.
China is the world’s most populous nation with 1.3 billion people. The UN projects
China’s population to grow by an average 0.4 percent per year until 2032, when China’s
population will peak at 1.47 billion. After 2032, the UN projects a negative growth rate, putting
China’s population in 2050 at 1.43 billion. Given these projections, China is likely to revert to a
medium-sized net importer by 2019 through 2040, with imports potentially peaking at 6.7 MMT
in 2030. However, China’s production by 2050 would be sufficient to meet domestic demand
due to a negative population growth rate past 2032, along with an increasing production growth
rate.
U.S. Wheat Associates expects increased demand for meat by China’s growing middle
class to encourage some acreage shift to field crops. Therefore, we consider the wheat import
estimate for 2050 as conservative.
China Wheat Situation
140.0
120.0
MMT
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
13.8
1.0
0.0
2010
2050
0.0
1980
Population: 986 million 1,362 million 1,426 million
Production
11 Imports
Consumption
Projected Chinese Wheat Imports 2015‐2050
8
MMT
6
4
2
2050
2048
2046
2044
2042
2040
2038
2036
2034
2032
2030
2028
2026
2024
2022
2020
2018
2016
0
China Imports
Conclusion
In 2010, the countries and regions in this study were dependent on 68.4 MMT of wheat
imports to fulfill domestic demand. Domestic production was capable of meeting 80 percent of
total consumption. Given the current population growth rates for these countries, their ability to
meet domestic demand will be tested in the future. Increased domestic production alone will not
be sufficient; international trade will be a necessary tool in meeting domestic demand. Based on
the projections in this study, domestic production by these countries will increase by only 23
percent, while total consumption will increase by 49 percent. Projected imports of 153.0 MMT in
2050 will more than double 2010 totals.
The world’s significant wheat exporters are the U.S., Canada, Australia, the Black Sea
Region, Europe, and Argentina. These countries are expected to see minimal, or even negative,
population growth towards 2050. In contrast, population growth will be strongest in the countries
of the tropic and subtropical regions where little wheat is grown. We believe it is reasonable to
extrapolate from this study that, even without projecting large imports by China, the world wheat
trade will likely double by 2050, to 240 MMT or more.
Wheat already accounts for one third of all global grain trade by tonnage. Such a large
expansion of trade will have major implications for all segments of the industry, including
buyers, shippers, handlers, and especially the producers in those countries that will supply the
increased exports, including the United States.
1980
2010
12 2050
Population Imports
(millions) (MMT)
Population Imports
(millions) (MMT)
Population
(millions)
Imports
(MMT)
Brazil
122
3.9
195
6.5
219
10.5
China
986
13.8
1,362
1.0
1,426
0.0
India
693
0.1
1,214
0.3
1,614
12.5
Indonesia
147
1.2
233
5.5
288
7.1
Mexico
69
1.2
111
3.3
129
2.1
Middle East
53
4.7
133
14.4
243
29.5
North Africa
92
10.8
170
22.3
245
51.4
Philippines
48
0.9
94
2.8
146
4.5
Sub-Saharan
333
3.9
757
12.3
1,598
35.4
TOTAL
40.4
68.4
13 153.0