Beyond Market and State: A Study of Hong Kong's Industrial Transforma tion ALEX HANG-KEUNG eHOI ince the 1970s, the rapid growth of a small group of Newly Industrializing Countries (NICs) has caught the attention of some prominent neoclassical economists, including Ian Little, Bela Balassa and Ann Krueger. A number of empirical studies have been carried out on these countries and the conclusions invariably associate their extraordinary growth with superior free trade and export-oriented policies) However, such findings are not uncontroversial. Studies conducted by other writers have shown that the markets and trading regimes of these NICs have not been as free as the neoclassicists claimed. The focus of the debate has gradually shifted to Hong Kong. With no exchange controls, no discriminatory tariffs, few import controls, and neither protection nor subsidies for industries, Hong Kong's free market approach stands out from other more interventionist NICs. In a recent work, Sung Yun-wing, a neoclassicist, has emphasized, and perhaps is proud of, this uniqueness. He writes, "Unlike the trio [South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore], ... the Hong Kong government has largely confined itself to limited functions. The governments of the trio are deeply and extensively interventionist by comparison.t'Such uniqueness and its theoretical implications for the NICs debate has also been recognized in the opposite camp. S Studies in Political Economy 45, Fall 1994 28 Studies in Political Economy For instance, Robert Wade, a well-known interventionist, has concisely pointed out in one sentence the high stakes of a correct interpretation of the source of Hong Kong's industrial growth. He says, If Hong Kong did as well as the other apparentlymore dirigiste countries, this shows that industrial policies must have been unimportant in the development of the others because Hong Kong is as near to a free market economy as it is possible to get.3 The implication is clear. As long as Hong Kong is regarded as an example of free market growth, the neoclassical economists can still claim that the market is working, and the interventionists still face a recalcitrant counter-example. Given this importance, it is worthwhile for us to rethink the industrialization experience of Hong Kong and, indeed, the entire debate on NICs. After examining the arguments of the neoclassical economists and the statist-interventionists, this paper goes on to maintain that the debate is often misguided by a market-state dichotomy, and overlooks the significance of society. Although the statist challengers have done a useful job in revealing the extent of the dirigiste policies of the NICs, and thus contribute to the weakening of the free market case, their arguments are not entirely immune from problems. Not uncommonly, the statist-interventionists are more interested in the creation of an "insulated" and "capable" state and the "correct" policies such a state devises, than in investigating the highly conflictual social processes that mould the state and its policies. In the end, they have committed a similar error by replacing a mystified market with an equally mystified state. If the free market approach is guilty of distorting reality, the statist-interventionist is at least guilty of painting an incomplete picture. For a realistic understanding of the development process, one has to transcend the market-state dichotomy and to firmly base discussion on the formation and evolution of the national and global socio-economic forces in which the market and state are embedded. The rest of this paper is divided into two major parts. The first part is a brief review and critique of the neoclassical 29 ChoiIHong Kong and statist-interventionist paradigms, and their application to Hong Kong. This part concludes with the argument that universal laws and mono-causal theories cannot be helpful guides, and with a plea for a return to concrete historical analysis of economic development. The second part is a historical study of the process of Hong Kong's industrial transformation between 1945 and 1958.4 It is argued here that two elements were critical to the process. The first was the dramatic change in the colony's external environment, and the second, the consequential adjustments of domestic class and race relations, and the policies of the colonial state. Central to the adjustment process, was the forging of a consensus on export manufacturing between and amongst the state and the dominant social classes. The Critique of Neoclassical Theory The main tenet of the neoclassical growth theory is that if the market mechanism is allowed to operate freely, the forces of supply and demand will adjust until an equilibrium price is reached. This equilibrium price is also the point where a country's resources are most efficiently allocated. The basis for linking the domestic economy with the international market system is provided by the theory of comparative advantage. By demonstrating that it is relative advantage, not absolute advantage, that matters, the theory maintains that every participating economy in the international trading system will gain by specializing in areas of production where it has relative advantages, while obtaining other goods, which can only be produced at a relative disadvantage, through trade. Just like the free market in the domestic economy, free trade allows the optimal allocation of resources worldwide. In the early 1970s the neoclassical economists began attacking the then dominant import substitution (IS) strategy, and its theoretical base, structuralist development economics. The emergence of the NICs supplied the neoclassicists with some powerful ammunition. By showing some successful and living examples of the alternative export-oriented (EO) strategy founded on free market and free trade principles, they were able to demonstrate the dismal failure of the protective and interventionist IS strategy.5 30 Studies in Political Economy By the early 1980s, there was little doubt that the neoclassical paradigm had gained a dominant position in the development field. The clear signal was the replacement of Hollis Chenery (a structuralist) by Anne Krueger (a neoclassicist) as the vice-president of development policy of the World Bank in 1982.6 Yet despite their rise to prominence in the trade, the theoretical claims of the neoclassicists' paradigm have long been criticized as unsound. The ideological connotations of the paradigm and the not uncommon manipulative treatment of data when neoclassicists engage in empirical studies have also come in for criticism. An often heard and not easily dismissed criticism is that the neoclassical paradigm is built on some very unrealistic assumptions. For instance, if the invisible hand of the free market is to work, the economy needs to possess all of the following characteristics: perfect information, perfect mobility of factors of production, consistent diminishing return, complete and instantaneous markets, and the absence of disproportional market power possessed by an individual firm or person. No doubt, the economy of the real world does not possess any of these features. The free market and its efficient functioning are largely an imaginary construct." Frank Hahn, a prominent economist, admits that the invisible hand works only under "very special assumptions," and it is "likely to be unsure in its operation and occasionally downright arthritic.t'f To make matters worse for the neoclassicists, critics have pointed out that there is no theoretical basis for linking a "freer" market with higher efficiency and growth, even if one accepts the free market argument. The theory of second best has shown that the removal of one or more distortions will not guarantee more welfare because, in a world of multiple distortions, the effects of one distortion may be partially or wholly neutralized by another. There is one, and only one, situation in which the removal of one or more distortions will surely lead to higher efficiency, and that occurs if, soon after such removal, the economy achieves a state of perfect free market. Given that such a state is highly unlikely, the seemingly solid grounds built by the neoclassical theory for a freer market are, in fact, shaky.? 31 ChoiIHong Kong Another line of critique is directed at the theory's philosophical foundation, namely economic liberalism. Rather than a timeless artifact of scientific achievement, neoclassical economic theory reflects the particular worldview of a particular group of people. Underlying such a worldview are certain assumptions about human nature. These include the notions of individual sovereignty, self-interest and instrumental rationality. All of these are subjects of intense debate in the history of Western social thought. Since these assumptions are so crucial to the neoclassical construct, it is worthwhile for us to take a few moments to reflect on them. The starting point of economic liberalism is the creation of the sovereign individual. 10 Instead of treating it as a social phenomenon, sovereignty is inscribed in the individual as a natural capability, prior to any engagement with other individuals in the society. The formation of wants and the design of means to achieve these wants take place within the individual without any interaction with other individuals. Secondly, these sovereign individuals are assumed to have unlimited wants, and their actions are designed to satisfy these wants in a self-interested way. Not only are these wants formed without social patterning, but also non-material wants are marginalized in the theory. In some rare cases when non-material wants are considered, they are treated in the same way as other material wants, as though the desire for peace has no categorical difference from the desire for an apple. Finally, economic liberalism further assumes that these self-interested individuals are also rational beings whose sole intention is to maximize the utility of their resources. Hence, above all others, economics claims to be the science of choice-making. The problems of such a formulation are that it fails to consider whether an individual can be solely conceptualized as an undiscriminating maximizing being, and whether the individual can exercise a rationality other than the instrumental, costs-benefits calculating type. With these assumptions, economic liberalism creates an inborn "economic man." When this economic man enters social life, he is joining a world where private property rights 32 Studies in Political Economy and self-regulating markets have already been institutionalized. Private property rights are regarded by liberals as a key social institution that allows sovereign individuals to assert their command over economic resources to satisfy their wants. The lack of accountability to others for one's actions is justified in this formulation because the utilization of one's resources is strictly within the limits of one's sovereignty. Economic liberals also accept that private property rights are the most efficient, and hence natural, form of ownership, ignoring the intense social conflicts that have dotted their evolution throughout history. The liberal version of the market is a romanticized and harmonious one. Individuals actualize their freedom, equality and efficiency in a self-regulating market without interference from the government or powerful groups. This happy scenario does not even entertain the possibility that the economically disadvantaged may be subordinated to those with greater advantages in a free market. Power, conflict, domination, the destructive potential of the unregulated market, and the need to embed this market in society,I I are not even contemplated in the free market discourse. It is only by making the concepts of individual sovereignty, self-interest and instrumental rationality part of an inborn human nature - hence unproblematized and beyond scrutiny - that the neoclassicist can invent the self-regulating market. The cost of doing so is the creation of an under-socialized individual. The individual, and by extension the market, exists prior to and apart from the society. The society is no more than an aggregate of the individuals. In this way, liberal economists compartmentalize the study of economics separating it from all other areas of social activities. Perceiving these difficulties, critics have pointed out that neoclassical economics is no more than an ideological argument camouflaged under the mantle of science. The belief in the free market is just "an article of faith."12 The prescription for free market policies is no more than some moralistic counsel. Neoclassical practitioners are like "missionaries" who are eager to spread their version of salvation to the world.P 33 ----------------------- ChoiIHong Kong At certain franker moments, some neoclassical economists do confess that there are serious shortcomings in their theory. For instance, Ann Krueger goes so far as to acknowledge that "there is nothing in [the neoclassical] theory to indicate why a deviation from the optimum should affect the rate of economic growth."14 Yet after delivering the usual exhortation for the followers of the neoclassical discipline to build better theory, Krueger finds comfort for her theoretical pain in empirical evidence. In other words, even though there is no sufficient theoretical ground to link freer trade with higher economic growth, she asserts that empirical evidence does overwhelmingly support such a correlation. Given this form of argument, the empirical battleground is no doubt as important as the theoretical one. Unfortunately, the shelter of empirical evidence does not afford any permanent refuge for the neoclassicists. Under repeated assaults from the statists, it is actually crumbling piece by piece. The statists have challenged the neoclassicists' assertion that free-trade regimes prevail in South Korea and Taiwan. They point out that the neoclassicists can only sustain the claim of the existence of free trade because they focus very narrowly on a few strictly defined variables like exchange rates, tariff rates and interest rates. Government policies that do not directly alter the values of these variables, or do not work through price mechanisms, simply do not appear in the equations of the neoclassicists. Once the blinders are removed, one can see a plenitude of policies subjecting the national economy to tight government control. These policies include: import control; credit rationing; foreign exchange rationing; large public sectors; technological import screening; various direct regulations of enterprises like plant size requirements; domestic contents regulations; domestic sale restrictions; export targets and industrial rationalization plans; and various social and labour policies. All of them have profound impacts on the industrialization process of the NICs.IS Another line of critique is directed at the integrity of the neoclassicists' mode of inquiry.l'' To quote Shahid Alam, the neoclassicists simply "have not been getting their facts straight."!" Some of the problems originate with "selective 34 Studies in Political Economy inattention" to facts as mentioned above.l'' others are due to data manipulation and questionable methodologies. For instance, the World Bank in its 1987 edition of World Development Report is accused of building a positive correlation between high growth rate and outward-oriented policies by simply putting countries with known rapid growth records into the "strongly outward-oriented" category.l? The concept of a "neutral trade regime," a situation comparable to free trade, is also problematic because it is not certain how different policies can be separated and aggregated into two different figures of effective subsidization rate and effective protection rate. It is further unsure how the two rates can cancel each other to produce a neutral regime. Policies like export incentives and currency overvaluation are like "apples and pears" which cannot easily be added or neutralized.20 The Critique of the Statist-Interventionist Theory By providing a competing story of what the NICs really are, the statist-interventionists have done an admirable job in mounting an effective challenge to the neoclassical economists. However, just parading the set of interventionist policies adopted by the NICs provides an incomplete account because it leaves so many unanswered questions. For example: What makes governments intervene? Why are their policies effective? And why do some countries intervene successfully while others fail. It is when the statist-interventionists try to answer these questions that they begin to invent a state nearly as mystified as the neoclassicists' free market. It is true that not all the statist-interventionists are the same. For instance, Stephan Haggard does not object to the free market. He only claims that not many states adopt a free market policy, and such a policy is not the only way leading to rapid industrialization. What is essential is to understand why a state picks the right "pathway" that does lead to rapid economic growth.s! Robert Wade and Alice Amsden explicitly argue for an accumulationist model of development. Late developers need a strong state to create their own comparative advantage by channelling capital and resources to industries with growth potentials. This idea is clearly illustrated in the name Wade chooses for his theory 35 ChoiIHong Kong the "governed market theory," and Amsden captures the essence of her arguments in the phrase, "to get the relative prices wrong. "22 Despite these differences, what unites the statist-interventionists is a shared vision of those qualities the state must possess before it can either make the right policy choice or carry out the accumulationist agenda effectively. Two of them are indispensable, namely autonomy and capability. An autonomous state is one that is insulated from the rent-seeking activities of various social groups. A capable state is one with high technocratic ability to devise and carry out policies consistently and cohesively. Taking them together, it means that correct policies can be made and effectively implemented by the technocrats if state institutions are devised in such a way as to fend off the interest-seeking social groups.23 One needs to point out that this autonomous and capable state shares the same liberal roots with the theory of the free market.24 The state, like the individual, is regarded as a sovereign actor free to make rational choices. Self-interested individuals coalesce into rent-seeking coalitions to exploit the state for their own benefit. The state as rational maximizer functions best if these sectoral interests are excluded from the bureaucratic decision-making mechanism. What state interventions do to the free market is the same as what social coalitions do to the autonomous state. Growth and industrialization are the unimpeded manifestation of some rational force, whether it is the free market or the autonomous state. At a deeper level, the differences between the neoclassicists and the statist-interventionists boil down to a common view: the need for an autonomous state to adopt market rational strategies. Undoubtedly, Deepak Lal strikes a responsive chord in the statist when he argues for authoritarianism: "a courageous, ruthless and perhaps undemocratic government is required to ride roughshod over ... special interest groups."25 The state in the liberal formulation is very much a black box. Save for some individual politicians and bureaucrats, it is devoid of social moorings. Detached from society, the aims, functions and evolution of the state can only be derived Studies in Political Economy from some abstract assumptions, and the study of the state is advanced by building some highly generalized and simplistic hypotheses. For instance, a "hard" state is better than a "soft" state in leading development. In a timely and refreshing piece, Jayant Lele reminds us that this vacuous, under-socialized state is the outcome of the pursuit of pure political variables by "normal political science." By artificially dislodging the state from the society, it generates a dualism and renders the "inability of NPS [normal political science] to confront the intricate and dynamic interaction between the state and society." 26 This dualism generates some undesirable consequences. With the existence of a black box state, the statist-interventionists equate development with the adoption of some efficient policies by a benevolent despot. In so doing, they present a remarkably conflict free and consensual picture of the industrialization process of the NICs.27 Statism becomes an apology for the authoritarian state. Authoritarian states use statism to legitimize their existence. Hands joining hands, they sing the conservative refrain of means justified by their ends. Infested with so many theoretical problems, it is only natural that both the free market and statist theories encounter serious problems in explaining the actual development process. In the next section, we are going to briefly examine one such example, the case of Hong Kong. Free Market, Statism and Hong Kong28 It is unfortunate that Hong Kong has not been included in any of the major neoclassical studies on NICs conducted in the 1970s and early 1980s.29As a result, the elaboration of the neoclassical growth model for Hong Kong is left to the neoclassicists' disciples based in the colony. The main task these disciples have identified for themselves is to demonstrate quantitatively the positive correlation between labour-intensive exports and economic growth. Various statistical studies of trade figures, labour content of exports, sources of export growth, and the like lead them to conclude that: Hong Kong's industries really specialize in labour-intensive production in which Hong Kong has a comparative advantage; the colony's 37 ChoiIHongKong industrial growth is produced by export-oriented industries; and the growth of Hong Kong's industries closely parallels the growth of world trade. In addition to these statistical studies, the neoclassicists also point to the fixed exchange rate, low tax rate, non-expansionary budgetary policy, the lack of discriminatory tariff, little import control, and the government's steadfast commitment to non-interventionism, as the indisputable factors in Hong Kong's free market growth. 30 However, subjecting the neoclassicist's own accounts of Hong Kong's industrialization to close scrutiny, one can easily gather a list of non-market factors that can also be regarded as pivotal to the colony's growth. These factors include: the influx of refugee capital and labour from China; an efficient infrastructure inherited from entrepot history; a congenial world trade environment in the 1950s and 1960s; the government's trade promotion efforts; and low labour costs sustained by a cheap supply of food stuffs from China and the large-scale, low-cost housing provided by the government. These non-market factors are allowed in the neoclassicists' accounts, reflecting the common acceptance of their importance. The problem is the evasive manner the neoclassicists choose to deal with them. Not uncommonly, these factors appear in some comer of their work, but the main effort is devoted to the analysis of the market. These two sets of factors are treated as though they are scarcely linked and have their own independent existence. A prime example in this respect is the way the neoclassicists handle the influx of refugees from China. While they are quick to point out that specialization in labour-intensive industries is the primary source of the colony's growth, they fail to trace the formation of this comparative advantage to the international conflicts that brought about the refugee influx. By rendering these international forces exogenous to their theoretical model, the neoclassical economists produce not only an incomplete picture, but also a highly biased one, giving the false impression that the free market alone is responsible for Hong Kong's growth. The exclusion of these non-market factors is also part of the reason for their silence on the fundamental question of why manufactured export 38 Studies in Political Economy growth did not take place before the Second World War, even though all the major elements of a free trade regime were in place for a long time in the colony's history. While the neoclassicists try to marginalize government interventions, the interventionists have done exactly the opposite; they argue that these interventions were indispensable to Hong Kong's growth.U The real challenge for the interventionists however is not to convincingly demonstrate that these measures fall.outside the boundaries of legitimate government interventions set by the neoclassicists,32 but rather to explain why the Hong Kong government intervenes in some areas and not others. In particular why is the manipulation of such protective variables as discriminatory tariffs, import quotas and credit rations that may encroach upon the free port institution considered such anathema. A different kind of problem plagues Haggard's statist account of Hong Kong's growth. Essentially, he is arguing that Hong Kong is able to choose a free trade path because its state exhibits qualities similar to those of the other NICs. He pinpoints the role of the financial secretary in the state structure. Socially insulated and technocratic ally efficient, the financial secretary of Hong Kong symbolizes an autonomous and capable state.33This focus on the financial secretary is however absurd because his freedom to act is constrained by the colonial structure. The acclaimed balanced budget and free trade policies of the financial secretary, for instance, are the policies of the British Empire and are expected to be followed by all obedient servants of the Queen. Viewed through the lenses of statism, Haggard finds the Hong Kong's state as autonomous and capable as the states of other NICs. His lenses, however, blur his vision, and prevent him from seeing the profoundly different class and race dynamics between a colonial state and an independent one. If the core message of the above critique is to be summarized in a few words, it is a call for the return to history. Economic development is a much more complicated process than just the manipulation of government policies, or changes in the tariff system or the exchange rate. The process is full of contradictions, conflicts, subordination and domination. The great helmsman state smoothly sailing along, 39 ChoiIHong Kong leading its subjects to the promised land is rare in the extreme. The separation of market or state from society may, perhaps, help build scientific theories. It is, however, done at the expense of obscuring the remainder of the society. Barry Rodan has got it right: "concrete actors in concrete conditions, not abstract laws determine development.t'H These laws do not help us understand history; the makers of these laws use history for their own purposes. The following sections of this paper represent a modest effort to reconstruct the history of Hong Kong's industrial transformation - a reconstruction that aims to free history from the biased views of the free market or the mighty state. The materials used here are some readily available government documents and old journal articles.35 Thus it makes no claims to novelty or to the revelation of previously unavailable information. Neither is it aimed at making theoretical breakthroughs. The only merit it can claim is its closeness to history. Such closeness leads the author to argue that the crisis of the colonial system, the cold war conflict, the nature of the colonial state, and race and class relations all critically affected Hong Kong's postwar economic development. The Crisis of British Colonialism The British colonial empire appeared to remain intact after the Second World War. Beneath the surface, however, irreparable damage had been done to both Britain itself and to its ability to hold onto its empire. The war exhausted its wealth and greatly undermined its productive capacity at home. Harsh extractions in the colonies during the war had set off a wave of independence struggles. Although Britain had still cherished the hope of regaining its prewar eminence in world affairs for some time, the reality was that it had unwittingly entered a phase of decline, which is amply indicated by the serious balance of payments problem in 1947, known as the dollar crisis.36 Corresponding to the imperial decline was an adjustment of the colonial policies. Some of the colonial possessions, like India, Burma, Ceylon and Palestine, which could not be profitably kept within the colonial empire were granted independence shortly after the war. More pertinent to the 40 Studies in Political Economy discussion of this section is the new development strategy formulated for the remaining colonies. These colonies were required to help lessen the acute shortage of US dollars that had seriously threatened the status of Sterling as a world class currency. The colonies were now expected to save and to earn US dollars through the development of their agricultural and mineral resources.I? In the absence of exportable primary commodities, Hong Kong colonial officials responded to the call through the promotion of labour-intensive industrial exports. For Hong Kong, the aims were twofold. It was expected that such a policy would make the colony financially self-sufficient and thus remove it as a potential burden to the ailing empire. Secondly, if the export drive was a success, it would hopefully contribute to the dollar earnings of the Sterling Area. It was during this moment of crisis that the industrialization of Hong Kong was found to be not incompatible with British colonial interests. Since Hong Kong's industrialization took place within the orbit of British colonialism, the shape it evolved was more or less determined at the beginning. In the first place, industrialization through the path of import substitution was largely ruled out since protective or discriminatory policies were at variance with Hong Kong's role as a free port in the colonial empire. In the second place, as industrialization was promoted in response to the dollar crisis, the first and foremost task of Hong Kong's industries was to export in order to earn foreign exchange. This export-oriented industrialization closely resembled the export economy of other colonies, with the only major difference being the kind of goods exported - labour-intensive manufactures in place of primary commodities. 38 Since the export industries in Hong Kong performed such a vital function for the colonial empire, it comes as no surprise that the colonial administration actively supported the development of industry. Although this support fell short of a systematic attempt at industrial protection (discussed later in this paper), it undoubtedly provided critical support at a crucial moment of Hong Kong's industrial transformation. Firstly, during the period of postwar shortage, the colonial government imposed supplies control and rationing to ensure 41 ChoiIHong Kong that industries obtained the needed raw materials at reasonable prices.I? Secondly, domestic and commercial rents were controlled and land was sold to industries at concessionary prices. Later, this involvement expanded into a massive public housing project and a new town program. Both of these together represent a major effort at spatial restructuring so that capital and labour could be combined in locations that would allow industrial production to continue in a cost efficient way.40 Thirdly, the government joined hands with major private employers to regulate wage Ievels.U Fourthly, cheap foreign exchange was made available to industrialists for raw material imports through a multiple exchange rate system that existed until 1949.42 Fifthly, the tariff concessions granted by the Imperial Preference system gave Hong Kong products a critical margin of protection in the British market.43 Lastly, the government devoted considerable effort to promoting the colony's industrial products overseas from the very beginning of its industrialization.H The intention in listing these areas of intervention is to provide some concrete evidence to show that the Hong Kong government was not as non-interventionist as has been suggested by the neoclassical economists. Earlier discussion of the colonial crisis and its impact on the development policy of the colony also demonstrates that the pattern of export-oriented industrialization does not necessarily reflect some superior choice on the part of the state. The arrival of such industries took place within a complicated environment that can not be encompassed by market or state explanations. Moreover, their arrival did not automatically signal their dominance of the economy. It is true that export-oriented industries experienced some brisk growth under the promotion of the colonial government. Despite this growth, it is fair to say that, before 1949, they had not yet replaced entrepot trade as the dominant factor in the colony's economy. What abruptly reversed the order were two major external events: the victory of communism in China in 1949 and, shortly after, the outbreak of the Korean War and the imposition of an international trade embargo on China and Hong Kong. 42 Studies in Political Economy Communist China and the US Embargo As a close trading partner and a near neighbour, Hong Kong could not be unaffected by the Communist victory in China and the subsequent trade embargo. What was widely expected immediately after these events was the elimination of Hong Kong's main source of livelihood as an entrepot of China. The once prosperous city would be turned into a backwater of the colonial empire. This spelled further uncertainty as to how long Britain would hold onto the "dying city." History ironically turned up a few surprises. While the eclipse of the entrepot trade was a foregone conclusion, few could anticipate that these traumatic events would open another door of prosperity for the colony by providing both the ingredients of labour and capital and the brute driving force for its transformation into an industrial city. Since the Hong Kong government of the time did not record the capital flows in and out of the colony, there is no accurate figure on the volume of Chinese refugee capital reaching Hong Kong immediately before and after the Communist takeover in China in 1949. Nevertheless, the total volume reaching Hong Kong appears to be very substantial. Edward Szczepanik conservatively estimates that more than 300-600 million Hong Kong dollars reached the colony each year between 1948-50, and stabilized at that level thereafter.45 Coupled with the inflow of capital from overseas Chinese, the general picture of Hong Kong in the years before and after the communist victory was a place glutted with capital eagerly seeking profitable investment. Some of it went into trade and various kinds of speculative activities. A substantial portion, particularly from the Shanghai industrialists, was invested in businesses with which they were already familiar. Arriving together with this capital was a large number of refugee industrialists. The most important of these were an elite group of cotton spinners from Shanghai. The spinning industry was well developed in China, and was its most modernized industrial sector. Immediately after the Second World War, spin mill owners started to rejuvenate their outdated machinery. A total of two and a half million modem spindles were ordered from Britain and the United States 43 ChoiIHong Kong from 1946 to 1947.46 However when the spindles were ready for delivery, the political situation in China had so much deteriorated that many Shanghai industrialists had already decided to relocate their factories to Hong Kong. As a result, a number of shipments were diverted to the colony.s? Realizing that there was a lack of skilled spindle workers in Hong Kong, many Shanghai industrialists brought along a nucleus group of skilled workers, who were expected to train the unskilled local Cantonese workers. In this light, the entire process of relocation is a transference not just of capital, but also of an industrial class together with their management experience, skilled workers and industrial machinery. Concomitant with the injection of capital was a huge movement of Chinese refugees into Hong Kong. These refugees, whose number eventually reached one million, comprised about one-third of the total population of the colony in the mid-1950s.48 Since most of these refugees were unwilling to return to China, their rural roots as a result had been cut off. The only means of livelihood for them in a colony with little agricultural land was to sell their labour, and to sell it at whatever wage was being offered.s? These refugees and their offspring not only provided the most important source of industrial labour for the up-and-coming manufacturing industries, their arrival also produced a major change in the nature of Hong Kong society. In the past, the majority of the Chinese workers and the European traders, like "migratory birds," returned home after their business in the colony had finished. With the presence of this massive group of refugees having nowhere to go, the colony had, for the first time in its history, a stable population that, willingly or not, claimed Hong Kong as its home. In other words, a society of its own was in the making, with all the attendant political and economic ramifications. The great influx of capital and labour provided the two essential ingredients for the development of industry. Nevertheless, the abundant supply of these factors does not by itself constitute a sufficient cause of industrial transformation. Trading constituted a more profitable business and thus an attractive outlet for capital investment. Trade with China had been the mainstay of the economy before the Second 44 Studies in Political Economy World War, and because of this, the prosperity of the colony was closely linked to that of China. What suddenly severed this tie was the takeover of the government in China by the Chinese Communist Party in 1949. The weakening of trade relations was as much the outcome of China's efforts to redirect its trade to the communist bloc as it was the effect of the imposition of economic sanctions by the US-led capitalist countries. The event precipitating a full scale trade war was the UN embargo imposed on China after China joined the Korean War in late 1950. To prevent materials from reaching China, Hong Kong, because of its economic function as an entrepot, was also declared an embargo target.50 The structure of the Hong Kong economy emerging from the trade crisis was profoundly changed. The change of regime in China and international economic warfare greatly reduced the volume of trade between China and the capitalist bloc. Hong Kong found itself engaged in a business the prospects of which were directly linked to political relations between China and the Western powers. Since political and trade relations between China and the western countries did not improve until the 1970s, the entrepot trade of Hong Kong remained stagnant throughout the 1950s and 1960s. The trade embargo had different impacts on different sectors of the economy. It hit the entrepot trade hardest, but it did not cripple the growing industries, although these were temporarily deprived of foreign imports of raw materials. The ultimate purpose of the embargo on Hong Kong was preventive, that is to obtain assurances from Hong Kong that no commodities entering Hong Kong would be redirected to China without the consent of the US. Hence, after the US had been satisfied that the Comprehensive Certificate of Origin, set up in 1953 by the Hong Kong government in response to the US demand, provided adequate procedural guarantees against the diversion of imported materials to China, the flow of industrial raw materials resumed. As it turned out later, the embargo was a disguised blessing for Hong Kong's manufacturing industries. On the one hand, it reduced trade to an unprofitable pursuit and pushed the consequently unemployed capital into the business of 45 ChoiIHong Kong export manufacturing. On the other hand, it opened the lucrative US market to the Hong Kong manufacturers, first in the Chinese style goods that US retailers could no longer obtain from China because of the trade embargo, then to a host of other products. In 1959 when the first accurate ftgures on domestic exports became available, it was revealed that the US had bought about 25 percent of Hong Kong's domestic exports, and had already overtaken Britain as the chief buyer of Hong Kong's products.S! In sum, the consequence of the embargo was the delinking of Hong Kong from China and the reintegration of the colony with the world capitalist system on a reconstituted base of export manufacturing. After this restructuring, trade with China was relegated to the sideline. The mainstay of the economy was the labour intensive industries with their main sources of raw materials and major markets all located in the capitalist countries. Even the growing tourist industry was greatly boosted by the designation of Hong Kong as the recreational ground for US soldiers serving in South Korea. There is little doubt that the colonial crisis and East-West economic warfare had a fundamental impact on the industrial transformation of Hong Kong's economy. But these external factors should be not treated in a deterministic way. In this account, they are viewed as indispensable factors setting the stage for a profound restructuring of the economy towards export-oriented industrialization. The exact path of the industrial transformation and the chance of its success were deeply affected by domestic factors, including the nature of the state, the relationship between the state and social classes, and inter-class conflicts and compromises. In Hong Kong, a highly interventionist path of industrialization was precluded by the bureaucratic nature of the colonial state. The success of the industrial transformation was built on the subordination of the rural and working classes, and on a consensus around export manufacturing between the British trading class and Chinese industrial class. These issues will be discussed in the following sections. 46 Studies in Political Economy The Bureaucratic Colonial State The colonial state in Hong Kong is prevented from taking a highly interventionist approach to industrialization because it is bound by its bureaucratic nature and the class interest it is supposed to serve. For the same reasons, it is also highly questionable to portray this state as an autonomous and capable one. It may be truly insulated from the great majority of the local Chinese people, but it is neither autonomous from the local British trading and financial class, nor from their masters in London. It is highly bureaucratized, and perhaps efficient in carrying out orders, but it is also equally conservative, rigid, and extremely unwilling to initiate change without intense social pressure. The so-called free trade regime is not in any sense a strategic choice, but has a direct lineage from the century old colonial system. If free trade, especially under a colonial system, could have, by itself, generated growth and industrialization in Hong Kong, the proponent of this theory must be prepared to explain why the same pattern of free trade could bring about exploitation and degeneration in so many other British colonies. What is taken to be a free trade regime is actually a colonial trading system coupled with a bureaucratic, conservative state disposed to a crisis/response pattern of intervention. As in other colonies, the defining character of the political system in Hong Kong was the merging of the roles of the bureaucrats and the politicians. 52 Strictly speaking, the bureaucrats assumed the role of the politician. The peak of the system consisted of three elements: the governor, the Executive Council and the Legislative Council. The governor, appointed by London, was part of the bureaucratic establishment of the Colonial Office. He had either been transferred to the post from other British colonies or promoted from within the ranks of the elite Hong Kong Cadets who were recruited from Britain and were trained to take up the most senior positions in the Hong Kong government. He was advised by the two councils: the Executive Council functioned like his cabinet and the Legislative Council resembled a form of parliament. Performing a purely advisory role, however, the councils had no binding power on the governor. 47 ChoiIHong Kong The structure of the two councils underwent little fundamental change over the hundred years of their existence. Even though they had expanded in size and had incorporated unofficial members (both British and Chinese), the essential nature remained intact: they were not accountable to the people. The majority of the council members were officials throughout the period under the present study.53 Although the government insisted that no policies would be made if the appointed unofficial members (hereinafter the "unofficials") were strongly opposed, it was also true that no decisions could be passed if they were not approved by the bureaucrats. In fact, both councils functioned as an arm of the government machinery. The officials rubber-stamped policies and legislation in the councils penned and tabled by themselves. In this light, it is not surprising for John Rear to insist that there were no politicians in Hong Kong: "... heads of departments are civil servants and all policies are the policies of the civil service."54 The political structure had its defenders and detractors. The defenders claimed that the undemocratic colonial system provided the efficiency and stability needed for economic growth. Without the intrusion of electoral politics, the system could operate according to the principle of economic efficiency rather than political considerations. At the same time, policy consistency was high because there was no change in government. All changes, even the successions of the governors, were strictly a matter of personnel realignment because the successors were required to follow the decisions made by their predecessors. 55 Comparing this defense of the system with the arguments of statism, one could not fail to see their close similarity. The association of authoritarianism with efficiency has long historical roots in the colonial discourse. The detractors pointed to the undemocratic nature of such a system. Rear scorned it as a system still based on the "wiseman principle."56 More pertinent to the argument here is the criticism of the government's conservatism and its lack of capacity for long term planning, conceded to a certain extent even by the apologists of the existing structure.57 Being appointed directly or indirectly by London, the governor 48 Studies in Political Economy and his subordinates did not need to worry about being voted down in an election, and thus they were deprived of an important source of motivation and pressure to lead major reforms. In Hong Kong, the primary task of the governor was to maintain the status quo, and this largely moulded his conservative political attitudes.58 The senior bureaucrats under the governor could not be more innovative because they had less elbow room and fewer incentives, and also because their jobs required them to be professional administrators, not innovators. 59 The first manifestation of the government's conservatism in the industrial transformation process was its lack of foresight. Trade was so much the insignia of British colonialism that colonial officials were blinded to any alternative future for Hong Kong other than a free port within the British empire. Even though industrial promotion policies had been taken up in response to shortages immediately after the Second World War and the 1947 dollar crisis, Governor Grantham did not see that there could be any fundamental change in Hong Kong's economic structure. During an address delivered to the Legislative Council in 1949, he maintained that the future of Hong Kong lay in trade, not industries. He said, "Trade is the life blood of this Colony ... I am proud of being Governor of a Colony of shopkeepers." He added the future of Hong Kong's industries remained "obscure."60 Only after industries had proven their vitality, after the trade embargo, did Grantham regret the oversight of their importance. We were all at one time too ready to think of Hong Kong only as an entrepot and to say that industry would never really prosper. That attitude of mind is changing, largely no doubt as a result of the realization that if it were not for the exports of our factories we should be even more in the economic doldrums than we already are.et , Although the possession of such foresight might not be transformed into aggressive industrial promotion policies, the lack of it coupled with a general conservatism did very likely lead to passivity and a "crisis/response" pattern of policy making. According to Peter Harris, "[the government's] policy was no-policies except where absolutely necessary."62 49 ChoiIHong Kong In short, the conservative nature of the bureaucracy was not amenable to self-motivated and long range interventionism. The outcome was a piecemeal approach reflecting a crisis/response pattern in its industrial policy. Under this situation, both the neoclassical economists and the statists can find evidence in support of their theories. What they have overlooked is that interventionist and non-interventionist policies in fact existed at the same time. And the proper way to account for them is through an examination of the nature of the state and its relation with the social classes. Race and Class Relations Apart from the bureaucratic state, the policy pattern of intervention and non-intervention was influenced by the realignment of domestic class and race relations that took place after the imperial decline and the trade embargo. While the rural and working classes were subordinated, the British trading and the Chinese industrial classes built a consensus, and arguably a symbiotic relationship, around export manufacturing. However, the relatively weak political power of the Chinese industrialists in the coalition failed to push the bureaucratic colonial state to adopt a more protective industrial policy. The outcome was a pattern of "selective intervention," that is, the government did not attempt to introduce protective industrial policies that would harm Hong Kong's free port institution. Within these limits, interventionist policies were undertaken if they were necessary, especially when political stability was at risk. Before examining this export consensus, it will be helpful to briefly discuss the pattern of class and race relations after the Second World War. For these purposes, four actors can be identified, namely the rural class, the working class, the industrial class, and the trading class.63 The trading class was a British enclave, but with a significant Chinese component. All other classes, including the industrialists, were predominantly Chinese. 1. The Rural Class In many Third World countries, the countryside is the source of capital and labour, and is the market for industries' goods. The economic significance of the agricultural elite in tum presents a particular set 50 Studies in Political Economy of constraints to the formulation of industrial policy. In the industrialization of Hong Kong, however, agriculture was a neglected sector. The rural economy was small, with production based on rice cultivation maintained at a subsistence level. The rural area was also a relatively late addition to the colony and hence less integrated with the whole. The New Territories, as its name implied, was acquired from China in 1898, more than half a century after the seizure of Hong Kong Island. Furthermore, unlike Hong Kong Island and the Kowloon Peninsula which were ceded to Britain in perpetuity, the New Territories was only leased for a period of 99 years. Since the New Territories was a piece of undeveloped land leased for a specific period of time, the colonial government preferred to leave it relatively untouched. Apart from a mild land reform carried out early in the century,64 and the setting up of a skeleton administration, economic and social institutions were not tampered with. The rural elite was not incorporated into the colonial state, and never achieved a level of influence comparable to the Chinese trading and the industrial elite. 2. The Working Class and Communism The working class, like the rural sector, was a subordinated class, but for very different reasons. Oversupply, government repression and the refugee workers' apathetic attitude to politics were frequently cited as reasons for the weakness of the labour sector. But the most important factors contributing to the docility of the working class had deeper roots and were closely related to international and domestic politics. After a period of active unionism and anti-colonial struggle between 1947 and 1952,65 the pro-Beijing Federation of Trade Unions (FTU), the dominant union in the labour sector, abruptly changed its confrontational course and adopted a strategy of withdrawal. Instead of organizing strikes, it ran welfare activities like free medical clinics, discount stores, and benefits programs for the unemployed to win the loyalty of workers. The change in strategy was so dramatic and the effect so obvious that the 1953 edition of the Hong Kong Annual Report could not but note that there was "a shift in policy by the FTU and its affiliates," and attributed the lack 51 ChoiIBong Kong of labour incidents in that year to "a marked stress on welfare activities rather than the acerbation [sic] of industrial disputes [by the FTU]. "66 Ruthless deportation of labour leaders by the colonial government and the intimidation of unions by employers may have contributed to the reorientation of Fl'U policy. But the most important factor was the change in Chinese policy on Hong Kong. By the early 1950s, China appeared to have recognized the economic and political benefits of Hong Kong and had adopted a policy of acquiescence to its status as a British colony. As a frontal organization of the Chinese Communist Party, the Fl'U was obliged to follow this policy and terminated its militant labour and anti-colonial activities. After that, the FTU espoused an ideology of industrial harmony and labour-capital cooperation and transformed itself from an agent of change to a stabilizing force. Hence, the weakness of the labour movement in Hong Kong stemmed not so much from the political division within the labour sector, between the pro-Kuomintang (Taiwan) and the pro-Chinese Communist Party (Mainland China) factions, as from the fact that the most powerful labour group adopted a policy of withdrawal and conciliation. Such weakness was also the consequence of international circumstances, since the only real alternative to British rule appeared to be a reincorporation with mainland China. Many workers would find this option unpalatable since most of them were recent fugitives from the Chinese regime. Under this situation, the working class regarded the colonial system as a necessary evil, and acquiesced to its exclusionary policy. Hence, it failed to play an active role in shaping the colony's industrialization process. 3. The Chinese Industrialists and British Traders After the Second World War, an established pattern of colonial rule was formed. Chinese trading interests were incorporated along with the British traders into the colonial government. 67 The British ruler needed the cooperation of the local, and predominantly Chinese, trading elite for effective governance. In exchange, the colonial ruler allowed the Chinese elite to playa role in the formulation of policy. But this concession 52 Studies in Political Economy had a limit. In Governor Grantham's terms, such concessions would be made only in matters not involving "fundamental importance. "68 The elite incorporation process is a prime example of wealth marrying with power. The elite first became successful in business, and then was invited to sit in the Councils. The domination of the business class in the Legislative and Executive Councils was indisputable. As of 1951, all of the eight "unofficials" carried the title of director, chairman or manager of at least one of the major corporations in the colony.69 Interestingly, none of the "unofficials" were representatives of the growing industrial class. The lack of representation of the Chinese industrial sector, was partly the consequence of the time lag built into the elite incorporation process developed over a century of colonial rule. Traditionally, the most common way for the wealthy Chinese to earn social recognition in Hong Kong was to make large donations to charitable associations, the most prominent of these included the Po Leung Kuk and the Tung Wah Hospital Group. If the donations made over a period of time were considered to be substantial, donors would be invited to sit on the boards of directors of these organizations. To remain in such a position required, according to Marjorie Topley, a donation of about HK$50,000 a year, a huge sum in the early 1960s when Topley's paper was writren.Z? Recognizing that the directors of these charitable organizations were leaders of the Chinese community, the colonial government at first invited them to sit on advisory committees or to become the Unofficial Justices of Peace. When sufficient experience had been gained and their positions in the Chinese community had become more firmly established, they would be awarded the most prestigious prize, a seat in the Legislative or the Executive Council. According to Topley, all five Chinese "unofficials" serving in the Executive Council for various periods of time between 1946 and 1960 were permanent members of the board of directors "of the most prominent charity organization in Hong Kong.?"! In the Legislative Council, nine Chinese served as "unofficials" during the same period. Again, six were permanent board members of the same organization. 53 ChoiIHongKong The representation of the "unofficials" in the councils strengthened their influence and safeguarded their interests in policy formation, at least in those areas not involving "fundamental importance." During the period of industrial transformation, without a seat in councils, those of the industrial class lacked a voice in the colonial state. It was only after they had proven their economic success, learned the rules of the game, and lavished substantial amounts of money on charitableassociations,that they started to climb the political ladder. Such a process was especially protracted for the Shanghai industrialists because of the sub-ethnic conflicts between them and the native Cantonese, who dominated the large charities and blocked their advancement in traditional associations.F In practice, they had to build their own organizations along the way as they were building up their own reputation. All this would mean time and delay. The first appointment of a member of the Shanghai elite to the Legislative Council did not take place until 1964.73 By then, the industrial class, the "new rich" as they were labelled by Ambrose King, comprised only 18.5 percent of the Chinese unofficials in the legislature in 1964. In contrast, 66 percent of the seats were secured by the "established rich," the old Chinese families with their base in trade and allied businesses. The composition only started to reverse in favour of the "new rich" in the early 1970s.74 The continuous dominance of the trading class in the government strengthened the resistance of an unwilling bureaucracy to the extension of more protectionist policies to the industrialists, and to any substantial alternation in the free port status. The industrial class, lacking a voice in the government, found it difficult to place their issues on the government's agenda. The repeated calls for a protective tariff in the 1950s were lightly dismissed by the government. Without a representative, it was hard to motivate a passive bureaucracy. To do justice to the issue, it should also be pointed out that the demands for protectionism were never very strong. Within the industrial class, there was considerable ambivalence about the wisdom of protectionism in a colony in which both the raw materials and markets were highly externally dependent. Under Hong Kong's unique conditions, 54 Studies in Political Economy the free port policy appeared to work in tandem with the export-oriented industries. 4. The Symbiotic Relationship Between the Trading and the Industrial Classes The relationship between the trade and industrial classes was full of conflict and compromise. On one level, the industrial class clashed with the trading class. Industrialists had for a long time championed a more protectionist policy. This request was always denied for the reason that, if granted, it would fatally harm the colony's free port status. Moreover, it was pointed out that protectionist measures would not be helpful because the domestic market was minuscule and most of the industrial products were sold overseas.75 Upon closer examination, the small domestic market argument was only partially true. The market for local consumer goods might be very small. However, the market for intermediate inputs to the expanding export-oriented industries was increasing month by month. For this reason the local spinning sector had long advocated import control on yams and other textile materials, the demands for which were substantial in the weaving, knitting and garment-making sectors.Z'' In addition, the experience gained from export, import and foreign exchange controls imposed before and after the trade embargo had proven that separating the circulation of goods and capital into the trading and the domestic sectors was feasible. The coexistence of a free port policy in the trading sector and a protectionist policy in the manufacturing sector was not practically impossible, though such policy would certainly involve considerable administrative control and ingenuity, and thus implied cost and risk to the government and the economy as a whole. The purpose of these arguments is to show that the existence of a small domestic market and the maintenanceof the free port status did not necessarilyprecludea more protectionist and discriminatory industrial strategy. The preference for maintaining the status quo reflected a political decision more than a practical impossibility. It also reflected the failure of the industrial class to press for change, which in tum was 55 ChoiIHong Kong partly the result of the considerable advantages conferred by the free port regime on the export-oriented manufacturers. Export-oriented industries benefited from the free trade policy in various ways. For instance, they could freely obtain raw materials and machinery from the least expensive sources of the world. They had easy access to the free foreign exchange market. There were few trade restrictions and biases against export. Finally, protection might bring uncalled for government interference in their economic activities, especially as such a government was still the government of others, those being the British trading class. Furthermore, the pattern of industrial transformation in Hong Kong was not a wholesale switching from trade to industry. The trading sector had suffered a relative decline, but their share in the economy was still substantial. The role of the merchants in the economy was not eliminated as a result of the development of industry. Instead, it maintained its traditional activities, though on a smaller scale, while it underwent changes to serve the newcomers. The p_rocessof change should be better seen as a superimposition of industries on the trading economy. Even after the rise of industries, trading was still the second most important economic activity in the colony. Many traders reoriented their business away from China to serve the newly independent Southeast Asian countries where the heavy traffic of primary commodities and Western capital goods promised good trading prospects. For other traders, as well as bankers, insurance brokers and shipping agents, the growing industrial sector provided new opportunities for business, the volume of which later proved to have more than compensated for their loss in Chinese trade. The trading firms secured raw materials and machinery, and found overseas markets for the products of the factories. In doing so, many of them extended credits on raw materials which the factories needed, and paid in advance for the products that the factories were going to sell. Some traders even set up factories, or formed joint-ventures with familiar industrialists, to produce goods they had been selling for a long time.?? Even the large British commercial banks could not resist this wave of diversification. As early as 1948, the Hongkong 56 Studies in Political Economy and Shanghai Banking Corporation had set up a branch in Mongkok, an industrial district, to provide loans for industries. The branch recorded losses in the first three years of operation. However, by 1952, the loss was converted to profit, and an eight-storey building was planned to provide office space for handling a rapidly multiplying volume of business.If A certain degree of dualism existed in the banking sector in which the small Chinese banks financed the small factories while the large British banks lent to the more established ones. The general trend, however, was a diversification of the banking sector from purely foreign exchange and short-term-trade financing activities to the provision of industrial loans and advances. On the whole, the penetration of the trading sector into industrial activities reconsolidated its position in the economy. Although it suffered a relative decline, it did succeed in integrating with the fastest growing sector by performing indispensable functions. In so doing, the trading class assumed a mixed identity of both industrialists and merchants. In fact, in matters not entailing basic contradiction with their traditional trading business, the merchants were willing to promote the interests of the industries. Not surprisingly, M. C. Blaker, taipan of Gilman & Co. Ltd. and Chairman of the Hong Kong General Chamber of Commerce, urged the government to actively deal with land shortage and high land cost faced by the industrialists as early as 1954.79 The traders were also concerned about the complaints of overseas buyers about the uneven quality of Hong Kong products towards the end of the 1950s. On this issue, they joined hands with the industrialists to press for more government assistance to small factory owners to upgrade their production technologies and management skills. Conclusion: Beyond Market and State The industrialization of Hong Kong involves a complicated set of factors including class and race relations, the bureaucratic state structure, the crisis in the British colonial system and cold war geopolitics. The attribution of Hong Kong's economic successes to an autonomous and capable state or to the invisible hand of the market provides a remarkably conflict-free and 57 ChoiIHong Kong consensual pattern of this development. A single-minded focus on the market or the state leads one not only to overlook the structural factors through which the market functions, and the colonial system in which the political structure of Hong Kong is embedded, but also to belittle the class and racial conflicts and compromises produced within a unique environment. The consequence of the abstraction of the free market or the state from society by the neoclassical economists and the statist theorists is the building of a theory in which real people are removed from the centre of consideration. The aim, it would appear, is to encourage people to entrust their fates to one or other of these mystified entities - the state or the market. Notes The author would like to acknowledge the valuable comments of Bruce Berman, Catherine Conaghan, H. L. Leung, Colin Leys, P. Wood, and especially, Jayant Lele. Thanks are also due to the two SPE reviewers, Manfred Bienefeld and Lynn K. Mytelka. Paritosh Kumar and Nyangabyaki Bazara have created in our office a comradely atmosphere. Although they may not realise it, this has made an important contribution to this paper. An earlier version of this paper was presented to the Ninth Annual Conference of the Canadian Association for the Study of International Development, Carleton University, Ottawa, 7-9 June 1993. I. 2. The study led by Little covers six countries (Pakistan, the Philippines, Brazil, India, Mexico and Taiwan), and the conclusions of their analysis are published in I.M.D. Little, Tibor Scitovsky & Maurice Scott (eds.), Industry and Trade in Some Developing Countries (Britain: Oxford University Press, 1970). Krueger coordinates National Bureau of Economic Research studies, entitled "Foreign Trade Regimes and Economic Development," on ten countries (Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Egypt, Ghana, India, Israel, the Philippines, South Korea and Turkey). The findings are published in Ann Krueger, Foreign Trade Regimes and Economic Development: Liberalization Attempts and Consequences (New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1978). Six countries (Argentina, Colombia, Israel, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan) have been studied by Bela Balassa, and the results are published in Bela Balassa and Associates, Development Strategies in Semi-Industrial Economies (Baltimore: The John Hopkins University Press, 1982). A total of 15 different countries were covered in the three projects. Sung Yun-wing, "The Hong Kong Model and its Future Evolution: Neoclassical Economics in a Chinese Society," in Y. C. Yao, Victor Mok & Lok-Sang Ho (eds.), Economic Development in Chinese So- S8 Studies in Political Economy 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 59 cieties: Models and Experience (Hong Kong: Hong Kong University Press, 1989). p.155. Robert Wade, Governing the Market: Economic Theory and the Role of Government in East Asian Industrialization (Princeton. NJ: Princeton Univ.• 1990). p.299. This period is chosen for study primarily because it witnesses the historic transformation of the Hong Kong economy. By 1958, manufacturing industries had ftrmly replaced entrepot trade as the mainstay of the colony. After that, these industries faced a different set of problems, including labour shortages, a rising wave of protectionism from Britain and later the United States, as weU as keen competition from Taiwan and South Korea. These problems and the corresponding responses from the private and public sectors constitute another phase of industrial development. which can only be dealt with in another study. For useful summaries of the neoclassical growth theories. see R.J.B. Jones, "Liberal Political Economy" in idem (ed.), The Worlds of Political Economy (London & New York: Pinter Publishers, 1988); Diana Hunt, Economic Theories of Development: An Analysis of Competing Paradigms (New York: Harvester Wheatsheaf, 1989), Chapter 10; Deepak Lal, The Poverty of "Development Economics" (Boston: Harvard University Press, 1985); Anne Krueger. Perspectives on Trade and Development (New York: Harvester Wheatsheaf, 1990); Bela Balassa, The Newly Industrializing Countries in the World Economy (New York: Pergamon Press, 1981); Little et al.• Industry and Trade in Some Developing Countries. For an overview of the IS-EO debate, see Wing Thye Woo. "The Art of Economic Development: Markets. Politics. and Externalities," International Organization 44/3 (1990). pp. 403-429; P.P. Leeson, "Development Economics and the Study of Development," in P.F. Leeson and M.M. Minogue (eds.), Perspectives on Development: Cross-disciplinary Themes in Development Studies (Manchester and New York: Manchester University Press, 1988); Colin Simmons, "Economic Development and Economic History." in Barbara Ingham and Colin Simmons (eds.), Development Studies and Colonial Policy (London: Frank Casso 1987). Woo. "The Art of Economic Development," p. 415. Jones. "Liberal Political Economy," p. 37; Amitai Etzioni, The Moral Dimension: Toward a New Economics (New York: The Free Press. 1988), p. 201. Frank Hahn. "Reflections on the Invisible Hand," Lloyds Bank Review 144 (1982), p.16. See Robert Wade, Governing the Market, pp. 14-15; John Toye, Dilemmas of Development (London: Basil Blackwell. 1987). p. 74; Christopher Colclough, "Structuralism Versus Neo-Liberalism: An Introduction" in Christopher Colclough & James Manor (eds.), States or Markets? Nee-Liberalism and the Development Policy Debate (London: Clarendon Press. 1991). p. 8; Etzioni, The Moral Dimension, pp. 201-205. See especially Robert J Holton, Economy and Society (London and New York: Routledge, 1992), chapters 3 & 4; Etzioni, The Moral Dimension, Chapter 1; Martin Staniland, What is Political Economy? ChoiIHong Kong 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. A Study of Social Theory and Underdevelopment (New Haven and London, 1985), pp. 22-23. See Manfred Bienefeld, "Karl Polanyi and the Contradictions of the 1980s" and Alan Wolfe, "Market, State and Society as Codes of Moral Obligation," both in Marguerite Mendell and Daniel Sal6e (eds.), The Legacy of Karl Polanyi: Market. State and Society at the End of the Twentieth Century (London: Macmillan, 1991). Etzioni, "The Moral Dimension," p. 10. Wolfe, "Market, State and Society," p. 37. Ann Krueger, "Trade Policy as an Input to Development," American Economic Review 70/2 (1980), p. 288, cited in Manfred Bienefeld, "The Significance of the Newly Industrialising Countries for the Development Debate," Studies in Political Economy 25 (1988), pp.l Q..ll, and also Colclough, "Structuralism Versus Nee-liberalism," p. 9. A voluminous literature has been accumulated on the importance of the state in the industrialization process of the NICs. For some representative works, see M. Shahid Alam, Governments and Markets in Economic Development Strategies: Lessons From Korea, Taiwan. and Japan (New York: Praeger, 1989); Alice Amdsen, Asia:J Next Giant (New York: Oxford University Press, 1989); Frederic C. Deyo (ed.), The Political Economy of the New Asian Industrialism (Ithaca, NY: Cornell, 1987); Thomas B. Gold, State and Society in the Taiwan "Miracle" (Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe, 1986); Stephan Haggard, Pathways from the Periphery: the Politics of Growth in the Newly Industrializing Countries (Ithaca, NY: Cornell, 1990); Garry Rodan, The Political Economy of Singapore's Industrialization: National State and International Capital (London: Macmillan Press, 1989); Gordon White (ed.), Developmental States in East Asia (Hong Kong: Macmillan, in association with IDS, University of Sussex, 1988); Robert Wade, Governing the Market; lung-en Woo, Race to the Swift: State and Finance in Korean Industrialization (New York: Columbia University Press, 1991). David Evans and Parvin Alizadeh, "Trade, Industrialization and the Visible Hand," Journal of Development Studies 21/1 (1984), pp. 4346; Toye, Dilemmas of Development, p, 86; Etzioni, The Moral Dimension, p, 19. Alam, Governments and Markets, p. 2. Robert Wade, "East Asia's Economic Success: Conflicting Perspectives, Partial Insights, Shaky Evidence," World Politics 44/2 (1992), p.280. See Wade, Governing the Market, pp. 15-22; David Evans, "Visible and Invisible Hands in Trade Policy Reform," in Colclough and Manor (eds.), States or Markets, pp. 59-63. See Alam, Governments and Markets, p. 6; Colclough, "Structuralism Versus Neo-Liberalism," p.l0; Wade, Governing the Market, p. 363. Stephan Haggard, Pathways from the Periphery, p. 9. Wade, Governing the Market, p. 27; Amsden, Asia:J Next Giant, p. 130. Haggard, Pathways from the Periphery, p. 42-46; Wade, Governing the Market, p. 29; Wade, "East Asia's Economic Success," p. 312; Amsden, Asia:J Next Giant, p. 148. 60 Studies in Political Economy 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. 61 This liberal origin is clearly spelled out by Haggard. See Haggard, Pathways from the Periphery, p. 4. Lal, The Poverty of Development Economics, p. 33. Jayant Lele, "A Welfare State in Crisis?: Reflections on the IndiraRajiv Era," p. 4, to appear in N. K. Choudhury and Salim Manzur, (eds.), Indian Economy and Polity, 1966-1991: the Indira-Rajiv Years (Boulder, Col.: Westview Press, forthcoming). John Lie, "Rethinking the 'Miracle' - Economic Growth and Political Struggles in South Korea," Bulletin of Concerned Asian Scholars 23/4 (1991), p. 71. For a detailed treatment, see my "The Industrial Transformation of Hong Kong, 1945-1958: Market or State?" (M.A. Thesis, Queen's University, 1993), pp. 15-29. See note 1. For a summary of neoclassicists' statistical arguments, see Lin Tzongbiau and Victor Mok, "Trade, Foreign Investment and Development in Hong Kong," in Walter Galenson (ed.), Foreign Trade and Investment: Economic Development in the Newly Industrializing Asian Countries (Madison: University of Wisconsin Press, 1985); and Lin Tzong-biau and Mel-Chiang Liu, "Export and Employment in Hong Kong," in Lin Tzong-biau, Rance Pui-Leung Lee, and Udo Ernst Simonis (eds.), Hong Kong: Economic. Social and Political Studies in Development (White Plains, NY: M.E. Sharpe, 1979). See also Cheng Tong-yung, "Hong Kong: A Classical Growth Model," Weltwirtschaftliches Archive 104 (1970), pp. 138-157; K. R. Chou, The Hong Kong Economy: A Miracle of Growth (Hong Kong: Academic Publications, 1966); Alvin Rabushka, Hong Kong: A Study In Economic Freedom (Chicago: Graduate School of Business, The University of Chicago, 1979); James Riedel, The Industrialization of Hong Kong (Tuebingen, Germany: Institut Fur Weltwirtschaft an der Universitat Kiel, 1974); Sung Yun-wing, "Economic Growth and Structural Change in the Small Open Economy of Hong Kong," in Vittorio Corbo, Anne O. Krueger & Fernando Ossa (eds), Export-Oriented Development Strategies: the Success of Five Newly Industrializing Countries (Bolder.Col: Westview, 1985); Edward Szczepanik, The Economic Growth of Hong Kong (London: Oxford, 1958). See Lui Tai-lok, "Industrialization of Hong Kong: All Laissez Faire?" Asian Exchange 312-3 (1985), pp. 33-48; Louis Nthenda, "Recent Trends in Government and Industry Relationship in Hong Kong," in Tzong-biau Lin et al. (eds.), Hong Kong: Economic. Social and Political Studies in Development; M. Castells, L. Goh and R. Y- W. Kwok, The Shek Kip Mei Syndrome: Economic Development and Public Housing in Hong Kong and Singapore (Pion, 1990). A common theme of these accounts is that industries are able to grow because they are subsidized by the government. However, there is no explanation as to why a British colonial state would be willing to subsidize the class of Chinese industrialists. The debate on the legitimate boundaries of interventions is fruitless from the point of view of this paper because the economy is fully embedded in society. The boundary drawing exercise is also unlikely to succeed since there is no common standard agreed upon by the neoclassicists. On one extreme is Riedel who identifies with Adam ChoiIHong Kong 33. 34. 35. Smith on the three minimal functions of governments. In between is Ian Little who legitimizes a bigger government role by arguing that, among other functions, the government should subsidize industries to promote export. On the other extreme is Balassa who accepts that infant industries need to be protected, though protection should be done on a "moderate scale." See James Riedel, "Economic Development in East Asia: Doing What Comes Naturally?" in Helen Hughes (ed.), Achieving Industrialization in East Asia (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1988), p. 28-29; Little et al., Industry and Trade in Some Developing Countries: A Comparative Study, p. 24; Balassa, The Newly Industrializing Countries in the World Economy, p. 21. Haggard, Pathways from the Periphery, pp. 115-125. Rodan, The Political Economy of Singapore Industrialization, p. 215. They are the official Hong Kong Annual Report (herein after HKAR), and the Hong Kong-based Far Eastern Economic Review (herein after s FEER,). 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. 41. 42. See Sidney Pollard, The Development of the British Economy, 19141983, 3rd ed. (Britain: Edward Arnold, 1983), p. 236; Allister H. Hinds, "Sterling and Imperial Policy, 1945-1951," The Journal of Imperial and Commonwealth History 15/1 (1986) p. 155. This new policy is clearly spelled out in a Colonial Office minute dated 17 September 1947 to Stafford Cripps, the Minister of Economic Affairs, cited in Hinds, "Sterling and Imperial Policy," p. 156. See also the message delivered to the colonies by Arthur Creech-Jones, the Secretary of State for the Colonies shortly after the 1947 dollar crisis. The message is reprinted in FEER, 10 September 1947. The transfer of surplus exchange earnings from Hong Kong to Britain was built into the colonial monetary system. For details, see Y. C. Jao, Banking and Currency in Hong Kong: A Study of Postwar Financial Development (London: Macmillan, 1974), p. 142; D. K. Fieldhouse, Colonialism, /870-1945: An Introduction (London: Weidenfeld & Nicolson, 1981) p. 63; Michael B. Brown, After Imperialism, rev. ed. (London: Heinemann, 1970), pp. 218-9. See Alan Birch, "The Control of Prices and Commodities in Hong Kong," Hong Kong Law Journal 412 (1974) pp. 133-150; Szczepanik, The Economic Growth of Hong Kong, p. 66. See L. F. Goodstadt, "Urban Housing in Hong Kong," in I. C. Jarvie and Joseph Agassi (eds.), A Society in Transition: Contributions to the Study of Hong Kong Society (London: Routledge, 1969); Wong Siu-lun, Emigrant Entrepreneurs: Shanghai Industrialists in Hong Kong (Hong Kong: Oxford University Press, 1988), p. 25; Roger Bristow, Hong Kong's New Towns: A Selective Review (Hong Kong: Oxford University Press, 1989); Keith Hopkins, "Housing the Poor," in idem (ed.), Hong Kong: the Industrial Colony (Hong Kong: Oxford University Press, 1971). See HKAR 1946, p. 14-15; HKAR 1948, p. 24. See also FEER 10 December 1947. See HKAR 1947, p. 33; Birch, "The Control of Prices and Commodities in Hong Kong," p. 144; G. B. Endacott, Hong Kong Eclipse (Hong Kong: Oxford University Press, 1978), p. 297. 62 Studies in Political Economy 43. 44. 45. 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. 61. 63 The tariff concessions of the Imperial Preference system coupled with a tariff-free domestic market was an important factor in encouraging Hong Kong industries, especially the textile industries, to tum overseas for their market. In the unprotected domestic market, the newly set up textile industries could not compete with the more efficient Japanese and Chinese producers. The overseas markets in the British empire were a different story. The tariff margin accorded by the Imperial Preference was wide enough to give Hong Kong products an edge over their competitors. Hence, a critical degree of protection was conferred on the textile industries, though the protection measure was neither taken by the Hong Kong government nor was it targeted at the domestic market. See HKAR 1958, p.IO-11. Szczepanik, The Economic Growth of Hong Kong, p. 142. Wong, Emigrant Entrepreneurs: Shanghai Industrialists in Hong Kong, p. 46. Ibid, p. 46; Szczepanik, The Economic Growth of Hong Kong, p. 107. HKAR 1956, p.3. Nicholas C. Owen, "Economic Policy in Hong Kong," in Keith Hopkins (ed.), Hong Kong: the Industrial Colony (Hong Kong: Oxford University Press, 1971), p. 150. For detailed studies on the trade embargo, see Gunnar Adler-Karlsson, Western Economic Warfare: 1947-1967 (Stockholm: Almqvist & Wiksell, 1968); Shao Wenguang, China, Britain and Businessmen: Political and Commercial Relations, 1949-57 (Britain: Macmillan in association with St. Antony's College Oxford, 1991); John R. Garson, "The American Trade Embargo Against China" in Jerome A. Cohen, Robert F. Dernberger & John R. Garson, China Trade Prospects and US Policy (New York: Praeger, 1971); A. Doak Barnett, "Hong Kong and China Trade," American Universities Field Staff, East Asia Series 3/2 (1954), pp. 9-42. See Hong Kong Government, Hong Kong Statistics, 1947-1967 (Hong Kong: Government Printer, 1969), p. 101-102, Table 6.5. See D. K. Fieldhouse, Colonialism 1870-1945: An Introduction (London: Weidenfeld & Nicolson, 1981), p. 28-29. See G. B. Endacott, Government and People in Hong Kong (Hong Kong: Hong Kong University Press, 1964), pp. 250-251. John Rear, "One Brand of Politics," in Keith Hopkins (ed.), Hong Kong: the Industrial Colony, p. 64. For a typical defender's account, see Norman J. Miners, The Government and Politics of Hong Kong (Hong Kong: Oxford University Press, 1975). Rear, "One Brand of Politics," p. 72. See Miners, The Government and Politics of Hong Kong, p. 72. P. B. Harris, Hong Kong: A Study in Bureaucracy and Politics (Hong Kong: Macmillan, 1988), p. 81. Henry J. Lethbridge, Hong Kong: Stability and Change (Hong Kong: Oxford University Press, 1978), p. 40. Cited in Wong, Emigrant Entrepreneurs, p. 25. Excerpt of Grantham's budget speech delivered on 3 March 1954. Cited in FEER, II March 1954. ChoiIHong Kong 62. 63. 64. 65. 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. 76. 77. 78. 79. P.B. Harris, "Policy Process and Policy Formulation in Hong Kong," in Leung Chi-keung, J. W. Cushman and Wang Gungwu (eds.) Hong Kong: Dilemmas of Growth (Australia: Research School of Pacific Studies, Australian National University and Centre of Asian Studies and University of Hong Kong, 1980) p. 44. The trading class here includes the import and export traders, bankers, insurance brokers, shipping and warehouse owners and alI other privileged groups connected with the trading business. See James L. Watson, "Rural Society: Hong Kong's New Territories," China Quarterly 95 (1983), p.481. For a description of these events, see Joe England, Industrial Relations and Law in Hong Kong, 2nd ed. (Hong Kong: Oxford University Press, 1989), pp. II 0-II5. HKAR 1953, p. 32. See the folIowing for prewar development: Ian Scott, Political Change and the Crisis of Legitimacy in Hong Kong (Hong Kong: Oxford, 1989) pp. 39-60; Chan Wai Kwan, The Making of Hong Kong Society (Britain: Clarendon Press, 1991); Endacott, Government and People in Hong Kong, chapters 7 & 8. Alexander Grantham, Via Ports: From Hong Kong to Hong Kong (Hong Kong: Hong Kong University Press, 1965), p. 109. See Steven Y.S. Tsang, Democracy Shelved: Great Britain, China, and Attempts at Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong, 1945-1952 (Hong Kong: Oxford University Press, 1988), p. 197; Harold Ingrams, Hong Kong (London: Her Majesty's Stationery Office, 1952), pp. 232-233. Marjorie Topley, "The Role of Savings and Wealth Among Hong Kong Chinese" in I. C. Jarvie and Joseph Agassi (eds.), A Society in Transition: Contributions to the Study of Hong Kong Society (London: Routledge, 1969), p. 211. Ibid., pp. 210-214. Topley has not identified the name of this charity. It is likely to be the Po Leung Kuk. Wong, Emigrant Entrepreneurs, p. 130. Ibid., p. 130. Ambrose Yeo-chi King, "Administrative Absorption of Politics in Hong Kong: Emphasis on the Grass Roots Level," Asian Survey 1515 (1975), p. 430. See for instance the speech made by Governor Grantham at the annual industrial exhibition of the Chinese Manufacturers' Union in 1948, cited in Ingrams, Hong Kong, p. 1952. Wong, Emigrant Entrepreneurs, p. 89. J. M. Braga (Compiler), Hong Kong Business Symposiums (Hong Kong: South China Morning Post Ltd, 1957), p. 382. Frank H.H. King, The History of the Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation, Vol. IV (Britain: Cambridge University Press, 1991), p.362. FEER 29 April 1954. 64
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