The Titanic GenIQ Model Identification of Survivors
BruceRatner 1.800.DM STAT-1
1
(1490) 67.7%
died
survived (711) 32.3%
2201
Total
BruceRatner 1.800.DM STAT-1
2
died
(1490) 67.7%
survived (711) 32.3%
Total
2201
GENDER
female
male
26.8%
73.2%
470
78.8%
21.2%
1731
BruceRatner 1.800.DM STAT-1
3
died
(1490) 67.7%
survived (711) 32.3%
Total
2201
AGE
child
adult
47.7% 68.7%
52.3% 31.3%
109
2092
BruceRatner 1.800.DM STAT-1
4
died
(1490) 67.7%
survived (711) 32.3%
Total
2201
CLASS
crew
first
76.0% 37.5%
24.0% 62.5%
885
325
second
third
58.6%
41.4%
285
74.8%
25.2%
706
BruceRatner 1.800.DM STAT-1
5
d ie d
su rv iv e d
T o ta l
CHAID
(1 4 9 0 ) 6 7 .7 %
(7 1 1 ) 3 2 .3 %
2201
GEN D ER
fe ma le
ma le
2 6 .8 %
7 3 .2 %
470
7 8 .8 %
2 1 .2 %
1731
CL A S S
c re w
first
se c o n d
7 .3 %
9 2 .7 %
274
AGE
th ird
c h ild
a d u lt
5 4 .1 %
4 5 .9 %
196
5 4 .7 %
4 5 .3 %
64
7 9 .7 %
2 0 .3 %
1667
CL A S S
CL A S S
first
se c o n d
th ird
7 2 .9 %
2 7 .1 %
48
0 .0 %
1 0 0 .0 %
BruceRatner 1.800.DM STAT-1
16
c re w
first
7 6 .0 %
2 4 .0 %
1037
se c o n d
th ird
8 5 .9 %
1 4 .1 %
630
*
6
CHAID-based
Logistic Regression Model (LRM)
logit(Survived) =
- 1.30 + 1.89*female + 1.10*first
+ 0.59*second - 0.68*madlt_23*
Q
Q
SCC|PS = % Survivors Correctly Classified
among those Predicted Survivors
* madlt_23 = 2nd and 3rd class male adults
BruceRatner 1.800.DM STAT-1
7
CHAID-based
Logistic Regression Model: SCC|PS = 60.05%
Predicted Predicted
Deceased Survivors
Actual
Deceased
1206
Actual
Survivors
284
total
total
284 1490
427
1490
711
711 2201
ƒ SCC|PS = % Survivors Correctly Classified
among those Predicted Survivors
BruceRatner 1.800.DM STAT-1
8
GenIQ Model
BruceRatner 1.800.DM STAT-1
9
GenIQ Model
x1 = AGE_adult;
x2 = GENDER_female;
If x1 NE 0 Then x1 = x2 / x1; Else x1 = 1;
x2 = 1;
x3 = GENDER_female;
x4 = CLASS_first;
x3 = x3 + x4;
x2 = x3 - x2;
x3 = 1;
x2 = x2 + x3;
x1 = x1 + x2;
GenIQvar = x1;
BruceRatner 1.800.DM STAT-1
10
GenIQ Model: SCC|PS = 60.62%
Predicted Predicted
Deceased Survivors
total
Actual
Deceased
1210
280 1490
Actual
Survivors
280
711
total
1490
431
711 2201
ƒ GenIQ Model IMPROVEMENT over LRM
ƒ 0.95% (= 60.62%/60.05%)
ƒ 4 survivors (that is a lot if they are your family)
BruceRatner 1.800.DM STAT-1
11
Titanic Survivors
in New York
BruceRatner 1.800.DM STAT-1
12
BruceRatner 1.800.DM STAT-1
13
BruceRatner 1.800.DM STAT-1
14
For a free-n-easy discussion of The GenIQ Model go to:
www.GenIQModel.com
BruceRatner 1.800.DM STAT-1
15