Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Measuring Personalism in Non-Democracies
Jennifer Gandhi
Emory University
Jane Lawrence Sumner
University of Minnesota
International Methods Colloquium
February 17, 2017
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Name That Autocrat
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Name That Autocrat
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Name That Autocrat
Qaddafi (Libya)
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Name That Autocrat
Qaddafi (Libya)
Karimov (Uzbekistan)
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Name That Autocrat
Qaddafi (Libya)
Karimov (Uzbekistan)
Gandhi and Sumner
Sese Seko (DR Congo)
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Personalism
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Personalism
I
Personalism: Rule unbounded by rules.
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Personalism
I
Personalism: Rule unbounded by rules.
I
Without institutional constraints, leaders are able to act
without checks on their power.
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Personalism
I
Personalism: Rule unbounded by rules.
I
Without institutional constraints, leaders are able to act
without checks on their power.
I
Adheres to traditional view of autocracy as “rule by one man”.
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Roadmap
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Roadmap
1. Problems with institutional measures.
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Roadmap
1. Problems with institutional measures.
2. Inferring personalism from “acting like a personalist”.
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Roadmap
1. Problems with institutional measures.
2. Inferring personalism from “acting like a personalist”.
3. Our measure works for known cases, provides nuance to
institutional categorizations.
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Roadmap
1. Problems with institutional measures.
2. Inferring personalism from “acting like a personalist”.
3. Our measure works for known cases, provides nuance to
institutional categorizations.
4. Comparison with existing measures.
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Roadmap
1. Problems with institutional measures.
2. Inferring personalism from “acting like a personalist”.
3. Our measure works for known cases, provides nuance to
institutional categorizations.
4. Comparison with existing measures.
5. Where we’re going now.
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
The Motivation
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Personalists are Different
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Personalists are Different
I
More conflictual behavior internationally (Peceny et al. 2002,
Reiter and Stam 2003, Weeks 2012).
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Personalists are Different
I
More conflictual behavior internationally (Peceny et al. 2002,
Reiter and Stam 2003, Weeks 2012).
I
Less likely to engage in cooperative behavior, e.g., trade and
security agreements (Mattes and Rodrı́guez 2013).
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Personalists are Different
I
More conflictual behavior internationally (Peceny et al. 2002,
Reiter and Stam 2003, Weeks 2012).
I
Less likely to engage in cooperative behavior, e.g., trade and
security agreements (Mattes and Rodrı́guez 2013).
I
Rely more on resource rents, attract less investment, and
experience less economic growth (Wright 2008).
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Personalists are Different
I
More conflictual behavior internationally (Peceny et al. 2002,
Reiter and Stam 2003, Weeks 2012).
I
Less likely to engage in cooperative behavior, e.g., trade and
security agreements (Mattes and Rodrı́guez 2013).
I
Rely more on resource rents, attract less investment, and
experience less economic growth (Wright 2008).
I
Most likely to end violently and suddenly (Geddes 2003).
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Personalists are Different
I
More conflictual behavior internationally (Peceny et al. 2002,
Reiter and Stam 2003, Weeks 2012).
I
Less likely to engage in cooperative behavior, e.g., trade and
security agreements (Mattes and Rodrı́guez 2013).
I
Rely more on resource rents, attract less investment, and
experience less economic growth (Wright 2008).
I
Most likely to end violently and suddenly (Geddes 2003).
I
Leaders more likely to experience exile or death (Escribá-Folch
2013).
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
The Problem
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Measuring Personalism
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Measuring Personalism
I
Existing measures focus on institutional constraints.
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Measuring Personalism
I
Existing measures focus on institutional constraints.
I
Polity’s xconst
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Measuring Personalism
I
Existing measures focus on institutional constraints.
I
Polity’s xconst
I
Henisz’s PolCon
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Measuring Personalism
I
Existing measures focus on institutional constraints.
I
Polity’s xconst
I
Henisz’s PolCon
I
Geddes, Wright, and Frantz’s (2014) categorical measure.
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Problems with Institutional Measures
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Problems with Institutional Measures
1. Autocratic institutions are complicated.
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Problems with Institutional Measures
1. Autocratic institutions are complicated.
I
Sometimes they constrain (Wright 2008, Malesky and Schuler
2010)
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Problems with Institutional Measures
1. Autocratic institutions are complicated.
I
Sometimes they constrain (Wright 2008, Malesky and Schuler
2010)
I
Sometimes they do not (Lust-Okar 2006, Brownlee 2007,
Blaydes 2010)
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Problems with Institutional Measures
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Problems with Institutional Measures
2. Institutions constrain, lack of institutions only enables.
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Problems with Institutional Measures
2. Institutions constrain, lack of institutions only enables.
I
Just because you can doesn’t mean you will.
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Problems with Institutional Measures
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Problems with Institutional Measures
3. Institutions are sticky.
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Problems with Institutional Measures
3. Institutions are sticky.
I
Lends itself to a categorical, time-invariant measure.
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Problems with Institutional Measures
3. Institutions are sticky.
I
Lends itself to a categorical, time-invariant measure.
I
Yet personalism is theoretically continuous, and varies over
time.
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
The Intuition
(“I Know It When I See It”)
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
“Acting Like a Personalist”
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
“Acting Like a Personalist”
I
We focus on actions instead of institutions.
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
“Acting Like a Personalist”
I
We focus on actions instead of institutions.
I
We construct a list of personalist “questions”: behaviors only
allowable if constraints absent.
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
“Acting Like a Personalist”
I
We focus on actions instead of institutions.
I
We construct a list of personalist “questions”: behaviors only
allowable if constraints absent.
I
Similar to psychological and education tests.
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
“Acting Like a Personalist”
I
We focus on actions instead of institutions.
I
We construct a list of personalist “questions”: behaviors only
allowable if constraints absent.
I
Similar to psychological and education tests.
I
We use an IRT model to estimate personalism from these
behavioral indicators.
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Four General Families
I
Term limits
I
Military purges
I
Civilian purges
I
Cabinet changes
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Term Limits (Baturo 2014)
0.0
0.2
Density
0.4
0.6
0.8
Broken Term Limits
No
Gandhi and Sumner
Yes
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Military Purge Size (Koga 2013)
Medium−Level Military Purge
0.6
Density
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.0
No
Yes
No
0.2
0.4
Density
0.6
0.8
1.0
High−Level Military Purge
0.0
Density
0.6
0.8
0.8
Low−Level Military Purge
No
Gandhi and Sumner
Yes
Measuring Personalism
Yes
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Military Purge Target (Koga 2013)
Purge Target: Mid−Level Officer
Density
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.4
Density
0.6
0.6
0.8
0.8
1.0
1.0
Purge Target: Soldier
No
Yes
No
Density
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Purge Target: High−Level Officer
No
Gandhi and Sumner
Yes
Measuring Personalism
Yes
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Civilian Purges (Banks 2011)
Medium−Level Domestic Purge
0.8
0.6
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
Density
0.6
0.4
0.2
Density
0.8
Low−Level Domestic Purge
No
Yes
No
Very−High−Level Domestic Purge
0.8
0.6
Density
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Density
0.8
1.0
1.0
High−Level Domestic Purge
Yes
No
Yes
Gandhi and Sumner
No
Measuring Personalism
Yes
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Cabinet Changes (Banks 2011)
Medium−Level Cabinet Change
0.2
0.4
Density
0.3
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.1
Density
0.4
0.6
0.5
0.8
Low−Level Cabinet Change
No
Yes
No
Very−High−Level Cabinet Change
0.6
Density
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.0
Density
0.6
0.8
High−Level Cabinet Change
Yes
No
Yes
Gandhi and Sumner
No
Measuring Personalism
Yes
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
The Model
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
The Model
I
We estimate a standard Bayesian IRT model.
Pr (Yijt = 1) = logit−1 (αj × (θit − βj ))
θit ∼ N (0, 1) if first year of regime (by GWF coding),
θit ∼ N (θi(t−1) , 0.25) otherwise.
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
The Model
Pr (Yijt = 1) = logit−1 (αj × (θit − βj ))
I
Discrimination (αj ) is bounded below at zero for identification
purposes.
I
Discrimination and difficulty parameters both have standard
normal priors.
I
Estimated using STAN: 4 chains, 2000 iterations, half
discarded as burn-in.
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
The Easy Cases
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Case 1: Spain
1
Spain
●●
●
●
●● ●●
●
●
●●●
●●
●●●
●
● ●●
●
0
●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
−1
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●●●
●●●●
−2
personalism estimate
●●●
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
year
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
2010
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Case 2: Iraq
1
Iraq
●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●
●
●●
●
● ●
●
● ● ●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
● ●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
−1
0
●●●
●
−2
personalism estimate
●
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
year
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
2010
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Case 3: Tunisia
Tunisia
1
●●●●
●
●
●●●
●●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●●●●
●●●●
●
●●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
−1
0
●
−2
personalism estimate
●
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
year
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
2010
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Case 4: Mexico
0
●
●●●●●● ●●●
●
●●●●●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
−1
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●
●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●●●●
−2
personalism estimate
1
Mexico
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
year
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
2010
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
The Harder Cases
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Case 5: Uzbekistan
1
Uzbekistan
●
●
●
●
●
0
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
−1
●
−2
personalism estimate
●
1995
2000
2005
year
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
●
●
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Case 6: South Korea
South Korea
●●
1
● ●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
0
● ● ● ●● ●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
● ●●
●
●
●
●● ●
−1
●●●
●●●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
−2
personalism estimate
●
●
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
year
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
2010
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Case 7: Indonesia
1
Indonesia
●
● ●●
●
●
●
●
●●● ●
●●
●
●
0
●
●● ●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
● ●●●●● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
−1
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
−2
personalism estimate
●●●
●
●
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
year
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
2010
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Comparisons with Existing
Measures
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Polity’s xconst
xconst
−0.1
bootstrapped 95% CIs
●
−0.2
●
−0.3
−0.4
●
●
−0.5
●
●
−0.6
predicted value
●
1
2
3
4
5
6
xconst
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
7
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Henisz’s PolCon III
Henisz's PolCon III
−0.6
−0.8
predicted effect
−0.4
−0.2
bootstrapped 95% CIs
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
polcon iii
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
1.0
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Geddes et al. Categorical Measure
GWF Categorical Indicator Coefficients
Oligarchy
●
Military−Personal
●
Personal
●
Military
●
Party−Military−
Personal
●
Indirect Military
●
Party−Personal
●
Party−Based
●
Party−Military
●
Democracy
●
Monarchy
●
No coding
●
−0.6
−0.4
−0.2
0.0
0.2
coefficient for linear model
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
0.4
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Only the Beginning
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Only the Beginning
I
Part of a larger effort; data collection ongoing.
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Only the Beginning
I
Part of a larger effort; data collection ongoing.
I
Eventually: succession, family, publications, etc.
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Conclusion
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Conclusion
I
A measure of personalism that comes from action, not
institutions.
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Conclusion
I
A measure of personalism that comes from action, not
institutions.
I
Important because institutional measures can lead to
miscategorization and lack nuance.
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Conclusion
I
A measure of personalism that comes from action, not
institutions.
I
I
Important because institutional measures can lead to
miscategorization and lack nuance.
Exciting potential:
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Conclusion
I
A measure of personalism that comes from action, not
institutions.
I
I
Important because institutional measures can lead to
miscategorization and lack nuance.
Exciting potential:
I
Permits better testing of wider range of theories.
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Conclusion
I
A measure of personalism that comes from action, not
institutions.
I
I
Important because institutional measures can lead to
miscategorization and lack nuance.
Exciting potential:
I
Permits better testing of wider range of theories.
I
Ripe for future theorizing.
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism
Introduction The Problem Our Approach Indicators Model Estimates Comparisons Conclusion
Thank you.
[email protected]
www.janelawrencesumner.com
Gandhi and Sumner
Measuring Personalism