Solving the Driver Crisis
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An independent analysis of the current driver shortage
prepared for FTA by RepGraph Ltd
DELIVERING SAFE, EFFICIENT, SUSTAINABLE LOGISTICS
Solving the Driver Crisis 1 FTA Driver Shortage Analysis Introduction ........................................................................................................... 4 Summary ................................................................................................................ 5 UK Economic Context .............................................................................................. 6 The Logistics Industry ............................................................................................. 7 Table 1: Broad definition of employment in logistics ......................................................... 7 LGV Drivers: Employment and Claimant Count ....................................................... 7 Employment of LGV drivers compared to general employment .......................................... 7 Figure 1: LGV drivers in employment compared to general employment ........................... 8 LGV drivers claimant count ................................................................................................. 8 Figure 2: Claimant count for LGV drivers .......................................................................... 9 LGV Driver Age: A profession dominated by older drivers ....................................... 9 Figure 3: Age demographics for professional drivers compared to general population ..... 10 Figure 4: Comparison of age range for employed LGV drivers and DQCs in issue .............. 10 Figure 5: Age profile for professional drivers (QTAS Jan 2015) ......................................... 11 Driver Shortage Number ....................................................................................... 11 Official Labour Force Survey Statistics – Driver Shortage Number ..................................... 11 Driver Qualification Cards (DQCs) and Number of Licensed Goods Vehicles ...................... 12 Figure 6: Number of licensed large goods vehicles (2001-­‐2013) ...................................... 12 Table 2: DQCs in issue by age category September 2014 ................................................ 12 New Entrants, LGV Pass Rate and Future Demand ................................................ 13 Initial Qualification ........................................................................................................... 13 Table 3 Initial Qualification ............................................................................................ 13 LGV Pass Rate ................................................................................................................... 13 Table 4: Practical large goods vehicle (LGV) test, Great Britain: 2008 to September 2014 13 Future demand for LGV drivers ......................................................................................... 14 Problems Recruiting Professional Drivers .............................................................. 14 Figure 7: Problems in recruiting professional drivers ....................................................... 14 Figure 8: Rate driver shortage issue ............................................................................... 15 Driver Shortage: Barriers and Solutions ................................................................ 15 Figure 9: Reasons for anticipated shortage of LGV drivers in the run up to DCPC deadline (September 2014). ......................................................................................................... 16 Figure 10: Roadside facilities greatest barrier to driver recruitment ................................ 16 Figure 11: Measures to address the problem of driver recruitment and deployment ........ 17 Figure 12: Other measures which would address the problem of driver recruitment and deployment ................................................................................................................... 17 3 Solving the Driver Crisis 3 Introduction The chronic shortage of qualified goods vehicle drivers is of pressing concern for the road freight sector and helping members to remedy this has become a major campaigning objective for FTA in 2015. In order to understand and quantify the extent of the driver shortage FTA commissioned an independent study of the available official statistics by RepGraph Ltd. This report summarises the findings and the data sources used in compiling the analysis. The findings will be used by FTA to inform its representations to government and other agencies and to inform members in their own activities intended to help solve the driver crisis. Note: In recent years the truck and coach licensing category names have changed. HGV (Heavy Goods Vehicle) is now LGV (Large Goods Vehicle). For consistency in this document the term LGV is used. 4 Solving the Driver Crisis
4 Summary •
•
•
•
From 2001 to 2013 the number of drivers in employment fell by 15 per cent, falling at nearly twice the rate as the number of LGVs licensed •
From April 2014 to January 2015 approximately 25,000 drivers acquired a DCPC through the initial qualification •
The pass rate for LGV drivers may impact on the number of drivers in employment. Although the pass rate has slowly improved since 2008, only around half of test takers pass Over 62 per cent of LGV drivers are 45 years or older (this vastly different to the economy wide demographics where the population aged 45 years or older in employment is around 35 per cent) Only one per cent of employed professional drivers are under 25 years of age •
•
•
Data from FTA’s QTAS January 2015, found a similar profile for driver age with 72 per cent of LGV drivers at or over 45 years of age •
FTA members reported difficulties in recruiting drivers in the final quarter of 2014. In Q2 2009 almost 80 per cent of respondents had no problems recruiting LGV drivers -­‐ this has now fallen to less than 20 per cent in Q3 and Q4 2014 •
The reduction in the number of professional drivers seeking work means that companies are having to compete harder to find drivers, with wage settlements rising as a result There is currently a driver shortage of between approximately 50,000 and 60,000 LGV drivers The number of LGV drivers in employment has decreased by 12.5 per cent compared to 10 years ago The claimant count for LGV jobs is now below pre-­‐recession levels which indicates that there is no slack in unemployment levels left to boost driver numbers from this point onwards. Claimant count for LGV drivers is at its lowest for 10 years and falling by 88 per cent since the January 2010 peak 5 Solving the Driver Crisis 5 UK Economic Context Unemployment rate in the United Kingdom decreased to 5.7 per cent in the three months to December of 2014 and is getting close to the levels seen before the economy slipped into recession in 2008. More jobs are certainly being created. There were almost 31 million people in work in the last three months of 2014, an increase of 103,000 on the previous three months and up 608,000 compared to October to December 2013. The headline figure for average earnings certainly shows a pick up. Average earnings were 2.1 per cent higher in the final quarter of 2014 than in the same three months a year earlier, up from 1.8 per cent in the three months to November. However, this increase in average earnings was the result of bonuses. Regular pay rose at an annual rate of 1.7 per cent in the last quarter of last year, down from 1.8 per cent in the three previous months. Real wages are rising and living standards are improving but due to falling inflation rather than due to an acceleration in earnings growth. UK inflation fell to the lowest level on record in January as the sharp drop in global oil prices fed through to petrol pumps and food prices continued to fall amid a supermarket price war. The Consumer Prices Index (CPI), government’s preferred measure of inflation fell to 0.3 per cent in January from 0.5 per cent in December, the slowest pace since equivalent records began for the consumer prices index in 1989. Overall the UK economic data is good news, with increasing numbers of people in paid employment and wage growth outstripping inflation. This means that due to rising incomes coupled with the recent fall in oil prices, consumers should have more money to spend on goods and services. However, higher employment means that companies will have to try harder to find workers, which will drive up pay. 6 Solving the Driver Crisis
6 The Logistics Industry The transport and storage sector currently employs around eight per cent of the UK workforce, but will need approximately 650,000 additional workers by 2020 to meet its needs1. LGV drivers account for 12 per cent of logistics employees and one per cent of employees over the entire UK economy (Table 1). Table 1: Broad definition of employment in logistics Logistics Occupations Purchasing Managers and Directors Managers and Directors in Transport and Logistics Managers and Directors in Storage and Warehousing Importers and Exporters Transport and Distribution Clerks and Assistants Large Goods Vehicle Drivers Van Drivers Fork-­‐Lift Truck Drivers Postal Workers, Mail Sorters, Messengers and Couriers Elementary Storage Occupations Other Occupations Total Employment Total Logistics Sector All Other Sectors Number % 4,000 40,000 44,000 2% 35,000 35,000 70,000 3% 27,000 60,000 87,000 4% 4,000 2,000 6,000 0% 21,000 38,000 59,000 3% 171,000 84,000 35,000 102,000 110,000 59,000 273,000* 194,000 94,000 12% 9% 4% 142,000 38,000 180,000 8% 172,000 224,000 396,000 18% 802,000 1,497,000 708,000 802,000 2,205,000 36% 100% Source: Skills for Logistics analysis of ONS Annual Population Survey (2012) cited in UKCES Report 1
2014 *By mid-­‐2014 this figure increased by 4.4 per cent to 285,000 (Figure 1, p.8) LGV Drivers: Employment and Claimant Count Employment of LGV drivers compared to general employment2 In August 2014, according to the ONS Labour Force Survey, there were 285,000 people employed as LGV drivers, compared with 326,000 professional drivers 10 years earlier (a reduction of 12.5 per cent). At the same time trends in general employment indicated that there were a total of over 30.5 million jobs in August 2014 compared to 28.4 million 10 years earlier, which is an increase of 7.5 per cent. 1
Understanding Skills and Performance Challenges in the Logistics Sector, Evidence Report 86 Oct. 2014, Gwenn Winters, Skills for Logistics 2 Source: ONS Labour Force Survey Employment status by occupation, tables EMP04 and EMP16 Q2 2001-­‐ Q2 2014 7 Solving the Driver Crisis 7 While total employment numbers have increased over the last 14 years (despite the recession) there has been a significant fall in the number of LGV drivers. The number of LGV jobs did increase dramatically over the period from 2013-­‐2014 (up by 10 per cent), but this was in line with a swift reduction in general unemployment due to improved economic conditions (Figure 1). 1.15$
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Figure 1: LGV drivers in employment compared to general employment Normalised$LGV$driver$jobs$
Source: ONS Labour Force Survey Employment status by occupation, tables EMP04 and EMP16 Q2 2001-­‐ Q2 2014 Note: Job numbers normalised to Q2-­‐2001 Data from the Labour Force Survey underestimates the number of LGV drivers in employment (285,000 (Figure 1)) when compared to the 326,000 individuals who hold full LGV Driver Qualification Cards (Table 2, p.12). The underestimation of LGV drivers in employment is further pronounced when the number of licensed goods vehicles is taken into account (currently 385,800 (Figure 6, p. 12)). This number far outstrips the official number of LGV drivers in employment and does not reflect the industry in practice. Vehicle usage optimisation, drivers’ hours and double manning make it more likely that there should be 1.3 drivers to each LGV and not the other way round. LGV drivers claimant count The numbers of LGV drivers claiming job seekers allowance has dropped by 88 per cent from a high of 11,845 to 1,365 since the January peak in 2010 which indicates that fewer professional drivers are seeking work3. The claimant count for LGV drivers is at its lowest for 10 years falling by 57 per cent in 2015 compared to 2014 (Figure 2). The claimant count for LGV jobs is now below pre-­‐recession levels, which 3 http://ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lms/labour-­‐market-­‐statistics/february-­‐2015/sty-­‐labour-­‐market-­‐statistics-­‐-­‐
february-­‐2015.html 8 Solving the Driver Crisis
8 indicates that there is no slack in unemployment levels left to boost driver numbers from this point onwards. Figure 2: Claimant count for LGV drivers 12,000"
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Source: Labour Market Statistics February 2015 LGV Driver Age: A profession dominated by older drivers Data on age from the Labour Force Survey (2014) 4revealed that over 62 per cent of LGV drivers are 45 years or older (this is vastly different to the economy wide demographics where the population aged 45 years or older in employment is around 35 per cent5 (Figure 3). Only one per cent of employed drivers are under 25 years of age. Although there are discrepancies in the numbers of LGV drivers in employment between the Labour Force Survey and Full LGV DQCs in issue, the age profile for both are very similar (Figure 4). 4 Source: Quarterly Labour Force Survey, July -­‐ September, 2014 5
Excluding the 65+ (ie retirement age) this figure for the age range 45 -­‐ 64 9 Solving the Driver Crisis 9 Figure 3: Age demographics for professional drivers compared to general population 50"
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Source: Quarterly Labour Force Survey, July -­‐ September, 2014 Figure 4: Comparison of age range for employed LGV drivers and DQCs in issue Percentage)of)total)(%))
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Data from FTA’s Quarterly Transport Activity Survey (QTAS) January 2015, found a similar profile for driver age with 72 per cent of LGV drivers at or over 45 years of age (Figure 5, p.11). 10 Solving the Driver Crisis
10 Figure 5: Age profile for professional drivers (QTAS Jan 2015) 9%$
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Under$45$
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Over$60$
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Driver Shortage Number6 There is no definitive number for the current driver shortage, however different methods arrive at similar conclusions. Below are two approaches: the first looks at growth in the labour market and the second compares the number of driver qualification cards in issue to the number of licensed goods vehicles. Official Labour Force Survey Statistics – Driver Shortage Number An analysis of the official ONS Labour Force Survey data estimates that the current driver shortage figure is 52,720 Labour Force Survey Analysis 1. In 2001 there were approximately 305,000 LGV drivers (Figure 1). 2. As of mid 2014 there were 285,000 LGV drivers. 3. At the same time, the total UK economy had added 10.5 per cent more jobs compared to 2001. 4. Assuming that the industries employing LGV drivers have tracked the economy as a whole in terms of demand for jobs, then there should be a 10.5 per cent increase in the demand for LGV drivers since 2001. 5. This equates to 337,720 LGV drivers required. Therefore the shortfall in the number of drivers is estimated to be 337,720 -­‐ 285,000 = 52,720 as of mid 2014. 6 Source: ONS Labour Force Survey Employment status by occupation, tables EMP04 and EMP16 2001-­‐2014 11 Solving the Driver Crisis 11 Driver Qualification Cards (DQCs) and Number of Licensed Goods Vehicles An analysis of the number of LGVs licensed in GB and the number of DQCs in issue revealed that by simply subtracting the number of full LGV DQCs in issue (325,827; Table 2) from the number of licensed LGVs (385,800 LGVs licensed in GB7 Figure 6) yields a figure of 59,973 shortfall in drivers. Figure 6: Number of licensed large goods vehicles (2001-­‐2013) 440,000%
430,000%
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390,000%
380,000%
370,000%
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Source: Department for Transport: VEH0103 Licensed vehicles by tax class, Great Britain, annually From 2001 to 2013 there was a fall of 8.6 per cent in the number of licensed LGVs (Figure 6) around the same time the number of drivers in employment fell by 15 per cent (Figure 1), falling at nearly twice the rate as the number of LGVs licensed. Table 2 shows data from DVLA as at end of September 2014 for DQCs in issue. Table 2: DQCs in issue by age category September 2014 Age LGV Full LGV Full & PCV Full LGV Full & PCV Prov Total 325,827 63,429 56,760 18-­‐24 25-­‐34 35-­‐44 45-­‐59 60-­‐ 64 65 + 5,244 37,324 64,306 175,198 30,336 13,419 280 5,987 14,475 31,100 6,939 4,648 2,338 16,707 22,928 13,005 1,392 390 Note: This dataset excludes category C1 and D1 licences which DVLA does not class as a vocational class. It is understood these drivers number around 100,000 7 Department for Transport: VEH0103 Licensed vehicles by tax class, Great Britain, annually: 1909 to 2013 12 Solving the Driver Crisis
12 New Entrants, LGV Pass Rate and Future Demand Initial Qualification The figures for drivers acquiring DCPC through the initial qualification (which represents new entrants to the industry who did not hold a Cat C licence prior to 10 September 2009) are in Table 3. Table 3 Initial Qualification Financial Year DCPC Initial Qualification April 08 – March 09 April 09 – March 10 April 10 – March 11 April 11 – March 12 April 12 – March 13 April 13 – March 14 April 14 – January 15 3,948 7,524 12,104 14,003 16,511 21,054 24,722 Total 8
Source: DVSA February 2015 99,866 LGV Pass Rate The pass rate for LGV drivers may impact on the number of drivers in employment. Although the pass rate has gradually improved since 2008, only around half of test takers pass.9 Table 4: Practical large goods vehicle (LGV) test,10 Great Britain: 2008 to September 2014 Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (to Sept) Tests 69,386 50,626 41,174 47,069 46,744 47,511 37,401 Passes 33,708 25,680 21,267 24,639 24,634 25,679 20,556 % Pass Rate 48.6% 50.7% 51.7% 52.3% 52.7% 54.0% 55.0% Source: DfT 2014 Practical large goods vehicles (LGV) test pass rates (DRT05) Note: Expect around 50,000 tests to be undertaken in 2014 with just over half passing. 8 https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/driver-­‐certificate-­‐of-­‐professional-­‐competence-­‐cpc-­‐
statistics 9
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-­‐data-­‐sets/drt05-­‐practical-­‐large-­‐goods-­‐vehicles-­‐lgv-­‐test-­‐
pass-­‐rates 10
Includes test categories C, C1, C+E, C1+E 13 Solving the Driver Crisis 13 Future demand for LGV drivers According to the All-­‐Party Parliamentary Group (APPG) report ‘Barriers to Youth Employment in the Freight Transport Sector’ (January 2015) quoting Skills for Logistics it is estimated that: “A fifth of the current LGV workforce will reach retirement age in the next 10 years. That’s approximately 75,000 drivers and this does not include those that will have licences revoked or curtailed or even those that will leave the professions for other job opportunities outside of driving. But the number gaining a licence is decreasing year-­‐on-­‐year. The data shows a 45% fall in the number obtaining an LGV licence in a 5 year period, and it appears that only 20% are acquiring their initial Driver CPC. This therefore does not come close to replacing those that are anticipated to leave the profession”. Skills for Logistics and Chartered Institute for Logistics (CILT) predict that there will be a need for 150,000 drivers by 202011.
Problems Recruiting Professional Drivers According to QTAS, January 2015, FTA members reported difficulties in recruiting drivers in the final quarter of 2014. In Q2 2009 almost 80 per cent of respondents had no problems recruiting LGV drivers -­‐ this had fallen to less than 20 per cent in Q3 and Q4 2014 (Figure 7). Furthermore, 60 per cent stated that they anticipated a shortage of LGV drivers in Q1 2015 and 68 per cent stated that they were experiencing problems contracting LGV drivers through agencies. 100""
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Figure 7: Problems in recruiting professional drivers 11 http://100days.local.gov.uk/thoughts-­‐on-­‐100-­‐days/chartered-­‐institute-­‐of-­‐logistics-­‐and-­‐transport/ 14 Solving the Driver Crisis
14 In Autumn 2014 delegates attending FTA’s Transport Manager conferences were asked: ‘’On a scale of 1-­‐5 how bad is the driver shortage?’’ Two-­‐thirds indicated that the driver shortage was bad or very bad (Figure 8) and 91 per cent stated that they were looking to recruit drivers in the near future. Figure 8: Rate driver shortage issue 1%$
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Driver Shortage: Barriers and Solutions In June 2014, FTA conducted its Transport Manager Survey and found that 96 per cent of transport managers reported that all of their drivers had completed training ahead of the Driver CPC deadline of 10th September 2014. However, two-­‐thirds of transport managers anticipated a shortage of LGV drivers and of those who expected a driver shortage most blamed the shortfall on the retirement of drivers who have opted not to complete the CPC (Figure 9). 15 Solving the Driver Crisis 15 Figure 9: Reasons for anticipated shortage of LGV drivers in the run up to DCPC deadline (September 2014). 50%#
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‘Driver roadside facilities’ was ranked as the greatest barrier to driver recruitment, closely followed by medical requirements and hours of work (Figure 10). It was commented in the survey results that better roadside facilities would have a positive effect on women joining the industry. Figure 10: Roadside facilities greatest barrier to driver recruitment Driver"roadside"faciliCes"
Driver"medical"requirements"
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16 Solving the Driver Crisis
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Respondents indicated that increasing the availability and funding for apprenticeships was the most important measure to address the problem of recruitment and deployment (Figure 11). Figure 11: Measures to address the problem of driver recruitment and deployment Reduce"min."age"for"commercial"vehicle"licence"acquisi=on"
Driver"agency"accredita=on"
Training"provider"accredita=on"
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‘Other measures’ that would help address recruitment included ‘improving the image of the industry’ which was the most popular. The improvement of roadside facilities reflects the sentiment of the greatest barrier to LGV driver recruitment (Figure 10). Figure 12: Other measures which would address the problem of driver recruitment and deployment Improve#the#image#of#the#industry#
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Solving the Driver Crisis 17 Tel: 01892 526171 Fax: 01892 534985 Web: www.fta.co.uk
Freight Transport Association Limited
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