Global Change,
Global Water, and, Responses to
Stress and Scarcity
Evan Vlachos
Colorado State University
Civil & Environmental Engineering
OUTLINE
A The Changing
g g Context: Searchingg For New Paradigms
g
B Water Politics and Policies
C Conflicts, Cooperation, and IWRM
D Looking Forward: Making the passage through the 21st century
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2
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Challenge: Unmet needs and waterrelated human insecurity
• An estimated 1.3
1 3 billion people currently lack reliable
access to safe drinking water
• An estimated 2.6 billion lack adequate sanitation
• Struggle to keep pace with population growth in recent
d d muchh less
decades,
l make
k a dent
d t in
i these
th
figures
fi
• Projection: Half the world’s people will live in
conditions of “water insecurity” by 2035
Challenge: Addressing water demands of
competing sectoral uses
• Growing inter-sectoral competition (agriculture
vs. emerging industrial, municipal uses)
• Strong growth projections across all sectors--but
ineffective mechanisms for allocating water across
sectors
• Controversies over water pricing and privatesector participation
5
Challenge: Addressing environmental
impacts and in-stream uses
• importance of freshwater ecosystem services
• cumulative toll of damming, diverting,
draining, dumping, developing
• 1/3 of world’s fish species endangered (vast
majority are freshwater fish)
• 800k dams on world’s rivers, 500k altered for
navigation
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INTERLOCKING CRISES
• CLIMATIC SHIFTS
• MEGARUPTURES
• METABOLISM
• SOCIO-POLITICAL CONTEXT
• TRANSBOUNDARY DEPENDENCIES
• FAST PACE OF TECHNOLOGICAL
DEVELOPMENT
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The Grand Transformation
• Globalization
• Complexity
• Interdependence
• Uncertainty
• Vulnerability
• Turbulence
Complexification
The Competition for Water
• Use vs. Use
• Present vs. Future
• Region vs. Region
• Quantity vs. Quality
• Water vs. Other Natural Resources
• Water vs. Other Social Priorities
8
Potential Water Conflicts Arise:
• Out of scarcity (permanent and temporary)
• Out of differences of goals and objectives
• Out of complex social and historical factors (such as pre-existing
antagonisms)
• Out of misunderstandings or ignorance
• Out of skewed power between localities, regions, or nations
• Out of significant data gaps or question of validity and reliability
• Out of particular hydropolitical issues at stake (e.g. dam
construction)
KEY CHALLENGES
• conflict prevention
• conflict management, and
• the settlement of formal disputes
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Requisites for the Transition
• The Need for New Paradigms
– Sustainability, heterarchy, co-evolution
• The Understanding of New Contexts
– “Raplexity,” interdependence, globalization
• The Emergence of New Methodologies
– Cumulative,
Cumulative synergistic,
synergistic diachronic impacts
– Indicators, DSS, data-information, judgement
– Computational prowess
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Major International Conferences on Water
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Changing Approaches to
Planning and Management
1960s
Feasibility studies, Elitist planning, Extrapolative
orientation
1970s
Environmental Impact Assessment,
Indicators/Principles & Standards, modeling/data
1980s
Cumulative Impact Assessment, foresight emphasis,
“User pays,” “Polluter pays” principle
1990s
Sustainability, Equity/Efficiency/Effort, Normative
Planning
2000s
Globalization, Integrated/Holistic/Comprehensive,
“Co-evolution”
The “Three Paradigms”
[NEPA]
National Environmental Policy Act/1970
[WFD]
Water Framework Directive/2000
[MDGs] Millennium Development Goals/2000
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“Visions”
“Declarations”
“Principles”
PREMISES
“Paradigm”
“MDG ”
“MDGs”
NEPA
WFD
Bilateral
Agreements, etc.
IWRM
IRBM
“PROTOCOLS”
PRACTICES
“Models”
“Prototypes”
“Guidelines”
“Manuals”
I l
Implementation
t ti
Measurement
Evaluation
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Simplistic model showing transition from Supply-Sided Phase to
Demand Management Phase in a political economy (Turton 1999a:13)
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Key Characteristics WFD
• Prevent further deterioration, achieve
“good status“ for all waters
• Promote sustainable water use
• River basin approach
• “Combined“ approach of emission limit
values
l
andd quality
lit standards
t d d
• Get prices right
• Get citizens involved
THE ESSENCE OF WFD/2000
• PLANNING AND INTEGRATED MANAGEMENT
• PRICING AND TRUE COST RECOVERY
• PARTICIPATION AND IMPROVED DECISION MAKING
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THE RANGE OF PUBLIC ENGAGEMENT
INTERNALIZED
APPROACH
CLOSED
SYSTEM
AWARENESS
PERSUASION
MONOLOGUE
EDUCATION
INVOLVEMENT
INFORMATION
FEEDBACK
DIALOGUE
Millennium
Development
Goals
PARTICIPATION
CONSULTATION
DEMOCRATIC
DELEGATION
OF POWER,
SHARED
LEADERSHIP
JOINT
PLANNING
PARTICIPATORY
PLANNING
“By 2015, cut
in half the
proportion of
people without
sustainable
access to safe
drinking water
and
sanitation.”
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THREE KEY ISSUES IN COMPREHENSIVE
WATER RESOURCES PLANNING & MANAGEMENT
Governingg
water
Valuing
water
“Management”
“Subsidiarity”
Value
Price
Cost
Reasonable
Sharing
water
Equitable
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Cross-cutting Considerations for
Implementing IWRM
(According to WFD/2000)
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Opportunities for integrated approaches between
different sectors
Scale of intervention through a distinction between large
and smaller river basins
Timing in terms of early implementation
Participation, and the encouragement of building on
traditions of public or stakeholder involvement
Capacity or the historical existence of strong technical
and scientific traditions or expertise.
SOME EXAMPLES OF PARADIGM SHIFT
• From extrapolative to anticipatory thinking and
planning
l i
• From elitist to participatory water planning and
management
• From supply-driven to demand-driven water
policies
• From economic emphasis to water as public good
• Recognition of various types of water such as
“Blue Water,” “Green Water,” “Virtual Water,”
etc.
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Basics of the New Paradigm
•
•
•
•
•
•
Duty
D
t to Cooperate
Conjunctive Management
Integrated Management
Equitable Utilization
Sustainable Use
Minimization of Environmental Harm
Emerging Key Notions
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Integrated
g
management
g
Water security
Transparency of governance
Policy reform
Transboundary interdependencies
River basin focus
True costing
Interdisciplinary approaches
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CRITERIA & STANDARDS
• ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY
• EQUITY
• ENVIRONMENTAL/ECOLOGICAL SUSTAINABILITY
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Addressing Drought and water scarcity
issues
Research--Policy EU Context
Research
EU Water policy and water legislation
• Holistic approach: Water Framework Directive (WFD) 2000/60/EC
Principles
– Management unit: River basin district (composed of one or more river
basins)
– River Basin management Plans and Programmes of Measures
– Pricing policies: Integration on economical aspects on water
management
– Public participation, public involvement
– IWRM principles
WFD = “Clean Water Act”
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7FP ENVIRONMENT
(including climate change and droughts)
•
Pressures on Environment and Climate
Climate change is one of the main political priorities of
the current Commission
•
Natural Hazards
International Strategy for Disaster Reduction and its
framework for action (2005-2015)
EFFECTIVE GOVERNANCE
•
PARTICIPATION
TRANSPARENCY
•
COHERENCY
•
RESPONSIVENESS
•
NORMATIVE COMMITMENT
•
INTEGRATIVE
•
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Five Major Legal Principles that are Shaping
and Will Further Affect the Practice of
“Hydrodiplomacy”
1. The Principle of international water and the concept of an
international “watercourse;”
2. The Principle of reasonable and equitable utilization, a
principle that has generated interminable debates and
interpretations as to “reasonableness” and “equity;”
3. Obligation not to cause significant harm and the exercise of
due diligence in the utilization of an international
watercourse;
4. The Principle of notification and negotiations on planned
measures; and
5. The Duty to cooperate, including regular exchanges of data.
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“Climate Change and US Water Resources” Paul Waggoner, Ed. 1989
Recommendations
S i ti t :
Scientists
I
Improve
predictions
di i
on scales
l most relevant
l
to water resource management, i.e. decades
and hydrologic basins
Practitioners: Scientists to share what is known, to be likely
to be known soon, and what will likely remain
uncertain. Water resource managers share
what hydrologic knowledge they need to manage
more effectively.
Public Bodies: Governments, at all levels, should re-evaluate
legal, technical and economic procedures for
managing water resources in the light of
climate changes that are likely.
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Archetypal Worldviews
Worldview
Antecedents
Conventional Worlds
Smith
Market
Policy Reform
Barbarization
Breakdown
Fortress World
Great Transitions
Eco-communalism
New Sustainability
Paradigm
Muddling Through
Keynes
Brundtland
Philosophy
Market optimism;
hidden & enlightened
hand
Policyy stewardshipp
Existential gloom;
population/resource
catastrophe
Hobbes
Social Chaos;
nasty nature of man
Morris & social Pastoral romance;;
human goodness;
utopians
evil of industrialism
Ghandhi
Sustainability as
Mill
progressive global
social evolution
Your brother-inNo grand philosophies
law (probably
Malthus
Motto
Don’t worry, be happy
Growth, environment,
equity through better
technology & management
The end is coming
Order through strong
leaders
Small is beautiful
Human solidarity, new
values, the art of living
Que sera, sera
Source: Great Transition [SEI, 2002]
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UNDERLYING TRANSFORMATIONS
VOLATILITY
TURBULENCE AND UNCERTAINTY
VULNERABILITY
INTERDEPENDENCIES AND RISK
VIGILANCE
ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING AND PREPAREDNESS
VULNERABILITY
[a]
[b]
[c]
[d]
Fragile Physical Environment
= environmental degradation
= lack of ecosystem resilience
= history of extreme hydrological events
Fragile Economy
= economic inequalities/disparities
= inadequate funding
Lack of Local Institutions
= lack of social resilience
= poor social protection
= marginalization
= capacity for recuperability
Lack of Preparedness
= inadequate warning systems
= lack of training
= lack of community mobilization
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Towards a Strategy of “Vigilance”
• Flexible responses, i.e., operational and strategic
flexibility
• Proactive commitment, in terms of environmental
scanning and through an emphasis on risk rather than
crisis management
• River basin focus and robust transnational “regimes”
• Combinations of global approaches and national
plans
• Ecosystemic
E
t i emphasis
h i and
d environmental
i
t l
interdependencies
• Integrated, comprehensive management, capacity
building and organizational mobilization.
THE ON-GOING CHALLENGE OF RELATING:
Legal Mandates
Professional Standards
0
0
Prudent
0
DM
Balanced
0
Public Desires
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The Politics of Transformation
Building Data / DSS
Expanding Knowledge / Judgement
Creating Institutions / Capacity Building
Mobilize Resources
Articulate Values
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Emerging Operational Principles
• Envisioning
Share the dream, share the goals
• Empowerment
Joint decision making, power sharing
• Enactment
Implementation, civic engagement
The 3 R’s
Rethinking
new paradigms
Reorganizing
organizational mobilization
Retooling
new skills and resources
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ICIWaRM Organizational Structure
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