tree ring dating - Research Laboratories of Archaeology

/HVVRQ
75((5,1*'$7,1*
6XEMHFWV
6NLOOV
VFLHQFH VRFLDO VWXGLHV PDWKHPDWLFV ODQJXDJH DUWV
NQRZOHGJH FRPSUHKHQVLRQ DSSOLFDWLRQ DQDO\VLV HYDOXDWLRQ
6WUDWHJLHV
'XUDWLRQ
FRPSXWDWLRQ REVHUYDWLRQ IRUHFDVWLQJ GLVFXVVLRQ VFLHQWLILF LQTXLU\
3ROLVKHG VWRQH D[H IURP +DOLID[
WR PLQXWHV
&ODVV 6L]H
&RXQW\ 1RUWK &DUROLQD
DQ\
FD $' 2EMHFWLYHV
,QWKHLUVWXG\RIGHQGURFKURQRORJ\VWXGHQWVXVHDFWLYLW\VKHHWVDQGDGLVFXVVLRQWR
‡ DSSO\SULQFLSOHVRIGHQGURFKURQRORJ\WRGHWHUPLQHDWUHH©VDJHDQGWRUHFRJQL]HFOLPDWLF
YDULDWLRQ
‡ DQDO\]HDQGH[SHULHQFHKRZDUFKDHRORJLVWVFDQVRPHWLPHVXVHWUHHULQJVWRGDWH
DUFKDHRORJLFDOHYLGHQFHDQGVWXG\SDVWFOLPDWHV
0DWHULDOV
)RUWKHWHDFKHUWUDQVSDUHQFLHVRIWKH¦0DVWHU6HTXHQFH§¦7KH6WXPS§DQG¦%HD
'HQGURFKURQRORJLVW§DFWLYLW\VKHHWV)RUVWXGHQWVVFLVVRUVJOXHRU6FRWFKWDSHDQGDFRS\RI
¦%HD'HQGURFKURQRORJLVW§DFWLYLW\VKHHW2SWLRQDOO\VOLFHVRIWUHHVWXPSVRUOLPEV
9RFDEXODU\
&DPELXPWKHWKLQOD\HURIOLYLQJGLYLGLQJFHOOVMXVWXQGHUWKHEDUNRIWUHHVWKHVHFHOOVJLYHULVH
WRWKHWUHH©VVHFRQGDU\JURZWK
'HQGURFKURQRORJ\WKHVWXG\RIWKHJURZWKULQJVLQWUHHVWRUHFRQVWUXFWFOLPDWHYDULDWLRQVDQGWR
GHWHUPLQHWKHDJHRIWUHHVEHDPVDQGRWKHUWLPEHUV
,QFUHPHQWERUHUDKROORZLQVWUXPHQWXVHGWRGULOOLQWRWKHFHQWHURIDWUHHWRUHPRYHDORQJ
QDUURZF\OLQGHURIZRRGFDOOHGDFRUHVDPSOH
7UHHULQJVWKHFRQFHQWULFFLUFOHVYLVLEOHLQFURVVVHFWLRQVRIWUHHWUXQNVDQGOLPEVHDFKSDLURI
OLJKWDQGGDUNULQJVUHSUHVHQWVD\HDU©VJURZWK
%DFNJURXQG
'HQGURFKURQRORJ\GHQGURKFUXK12/XKJHHPHDQV¦WKHVWXG\RIWUHHWLPH§8VXDOO\
FDOOHGWUHHULQJGDWLQJGHQGURFKURQRORJ\LVDVFLHQFHEDVHGRQWKHIDFWWKDWHYHU\JURZWKVHDVRQ
DWUHHDGGVDQHZOD\HURIZRRGWRLWVWUXQN2YHUWLPHWKHVH\HDUO\JURZWKOD\HUVIRUPDVHULHV
RIOLJKWDQGGDUNFRQFHQWULFFLUFOHVRUWUHHULQJVWKDWDUHYLVLEOHRQFURVVVHFWLRQVRIIHOOHGWUHHV
$UFKDHRORJLVWVVRPHWLPHVVWXG\WKHULQJSDWWHUQVLQEHDPVRURWKHUSLHFHVRIZRRGIURP
DUFKDHRORJLFDOVLWHVWRKHOSGDWHWKHVLWHVWKH\PD\DOVRVWXG\WKHULQJSDWWHUQVWRLQIHUWKHORFDO
FOLPDWLFKLVWRU\
7UHHULQJDQDO\VLVUHTXLUHVREVHUYDWLRQDQGSDWWHUQUHFRJQLWLRQ(DFK\HDUDWUHH©VJURZWKULQJ
KDVWZRSDUWVRQHLVZLGHDQGOLJKWFRORUHGDQGWKHRWKHULVQDUURZDQGGDUN7KHOLJKWSDUWLV
,175,*8( 2) 7+( 3$67
WKHHDUO\ZRRG7KLVJURZVGXULQJWKHZHWVSULQJDQGHDUO\VXPPHUZKHQWKHWUHHKDVDORWRI
VDSDQGWKHFDPELXPFHOOVJLYLQJULVHWRWKHWUXQNJURZWKDUHODUJHDQGWKLQZDOOHG$VWKH
VXPPHUZLQGVGRZQDQGWKHWUDQVLWLRQWRWKHFRROHUDXWXPQRFFXUVWKHWUHH©VJURZWKUDWHVORZV
7KLVUHVXOWVLQWKHFDPELXPFHOOVEHFRPLQJVPDOOHUDQGWKLFNHUZDOOHG%\ZLQWHUZKHQWKHVDS
ILQDOO\VWRSVIORZLQJDVPRRWKGDUNULQJPDUNVWKHHQGRIWKHWUHH©VDQQXDOJURZWK%\FRXQWLQJ
WKHGDUNULQJVHJPHQWVVFLHQWLVWVFDQWHOODWUHH©VDJHLIWKHFURVVVHFWLRQRIWKHWUXQNLVFRPSOHWH
%HFDXVHWKHZLGWKRIWUHHULQJVYDULHVZLWKJURZLQJFRQGLWLRQVVFLHQWLVWVDOVROHDUQDERXW
ORFDOFOLPDWHGXULQJWKHWUHH©VOLIHWLPHE\FRPSDULQJWKHULQJV©GLIIHUHQWZLGWKV7UHHULQJVYDU\
LQWKLFNQHVVIURP\HDUWR\HDU)RULQVWDQFHKLJKHUUDLQIDOODQGDORQJHUJURZLQJVHDVRQSURGXFHV
DZLGHUULQJWKDQD\HDUZLWKORZUDLQIDOODQGSURORQJHGFROG)URPUHFRUGLQJWUHHULQJSDWWHUQV
LQVHYHUDOJHRJUDSKLFDUHDVVFLHQWLVWVKDYHIRXQGWKDWDOOWKHUHJLRQ©VWUHHVKDYHWKHVDPHSDWWHUQ
$QDVWURQRPHU'U$QGUHZ('RXJODVVGHYHORSHGGHQGURFKURQRORJ\DERXW%DVHGDW
WKH8QLYHUVLW\RI$UL]RQDLQ7XFVRQ'RXJODVVZDQWHGWRNQRZKRZVXQVSRWDFWLYLW\DIIHFWHG
FOLPDWHDQGKLVUHVHDUFKVRRQOHGKLPWRSLRQHHULQJWUHHULQJDQDO\VLV'RXJODVVZDVDPRQJWKH
ILUVWWRQRWLFHWKDWWUHHVLQDJHRJUDSKLFDUHDGHYHORSWKHVDPHJURZWKULQJSDWWHUQVEHFDXVHWKH\
H[SHULHQFHWKHVDPHFOLPDWLFFRQGLWLRQV+HUHDVRQHGLIKHFRXOGWUDFHSDWWHUQVIDUHQRXJKEDFN
LQWLPHKHFRXOGRXWOLQHDKLVWRU\RIUHJLRQDOFOLPDWHDQGVHHLIVXQVSRWVFRXOGEHUHODWHG
'RXJODVVXVHGDEULGJLQJPHWKRGWRFUHDWHKLVFKURQRORJ\)LUVWKHVWXGLHGUHFHQWO\FXWWUHHV
ZKRVHGDWHVKHNQHZ7KLVLQLWLDOVWHSZDVFULWLFDOEHFDXVHE\NQRZLQJWKHFXWGDWH'RXJODVV
NQHZZKHQHDFKWUHHDGGHGLWVODVWJURZWKULQJ7KLVLQWXUQOHWKLPGHWHUPLQHWKH\HDUHDFKWUHH
VWDUWHGJURZLQJ7KHFDOFXODWLRQZDVVWUDLJKWIRUZDUGFRXQWWKHGDUNULQJVLQZDUGDQGVXEWUDFW
WKDWQXPEHUIURPWKH\HDUWKHWUHHZDVFXW$V'RXJODVVPDWFKHGDQGUHFRUGHGULQJSDWWHUQVIURP
WUHHVRIGLIIHUHQWDJHVKHFRQILUPHGWKDWWKHLUSDWWHUQVRYHUODSSHGGXULQJWKH\HDUVWKHWUHHV
VLPXOWDQHRXVO\OLYHG
(VWDEOLVKLQJ D WUHHULQJ VHTXHQFH E\ PHDQV RI WKH EULGJLQJ PHWKRG
$IWHUHVWDEOLVKLQJWKLVEDVLFVHTXHQFH'RXJODVVQH[WVWXGLHGZRRGIURPWUHHVZKRVHGDWHVKH
GLGQRWNQRZ+HREVHUYHGWKDWWKH\HDUDWUHHZDVFKRSSHGGRZQFRXOGEHGHWHUPLQHGE\
PDWFKLQJLWVULQJSDWWHUQZLWKWKHSDWWHUQRIDWUHHZKRVHFXW\HDUKHNQHZ)RUH[DPSOHVD\
'RXJODVVREVHUYHGRQKLVSUHOLPLQDU\VHTXHQFHWKDWDGURXJKWRFFXUUHGLQDSSHDULQJRQ
WUHHVDVDYHU\QDUURZJURZWKULQJ([SHULHQFHWROGKLPWKLVQDUURZULQJZRXOGEHLQDOOWKH
UHJLRQ©VWUHHVEXWDWGLIIHUHQWSRVLWLRQVRQWKHVWXPSEHFDXVHRIWKHLUGLIIHUHQWDJHV)DFHGZLWK
ZRRGZKRVHIHOOLQJGDWHKHGLGQRWNQRZ'RXJODVVZRXOGVHDUFKRXWWKHULQJLGHQWLI\LQJWKH
/(6621 75((5,1* '$7,1*
GURXJKW\HDUDQGPDWFKLWWRKLVVHTXHQFH$WWKDWSRLQWGHWHUPLQLQJWKH\HDUWKHWUHHZDV
FKRSSHGGRZQZDVDJDLQVWUDLJKWIRUZDUG)RULQVWDQFHLIWZRJURZWKULQJVH[LVWDERYHWKH
GURXJKW\HDUWKHWUHHZDVFXWLQ'RXJODVVH[WHQGHGWKLVEULGJLQJH[HUFLVHE\VWXG\LQJULQJ
SDWWHUQVYLVLEOHLQROGZRRGHQEHDPVVRPHSUHVHUYHGLQWKHSXHEORVKRXVHVRIHDUO\1DWLYH
$PHULFDQVOLYLQJLQKLVVWXG\DUHD8OWLPDWHO\KHFKDUWHGDWUHHULQJVHTXHQFHWRDERXW$'
'HQGURFKURQRORJLVWVKDYHVLQFHXVHG'RXJODVV©VWHFKQLTXHWRPDNHPDVWHUVHTXHQFHVIRU
VHYHUDOSDUWVRIWKHFRXQWU\0RVWUHIOHFWUHJLRQDOJURZWKSDWWHUQVIRUGLVWLQFWVSHFLHV0XFKRI
WKLVZRUNIRFXVHGRQUHJLRQVLQWKHDULG6RXWKZHVWZKHUHDQFLHQWSLQ\RQSLQHVVWLOOOLYHRUH[LVW
DVEHDPVLQROGKRXVHV,QVRPHSODFHVWKHUHPDVWHUVHTXHQFHVH[WHQGDVIDUEDFNDV\HDUV
5HFHQWO\VFLHQWLVWVKDYHEHJXQFRQVWUXFWLQJVHTXHQFHVLQWKH(DVW,WLVDPRUHGLIILFXOWDQG
OHVVSUHFLVHWDVNIRUWZRUHDVRQV7KHUHODWLYHO\DEXQGDQWUDLQIDOODQGPLOGHUZLQWHUVWHQGWREOXU
WUHHV©DQQXDOJURZWKOD\HUVPRVWORRNVRPXFKDOLNHWKDWFUHDWLQJDEULGJHE\PDWFKLQJULQJVLV
GLIILFXOW$OVRWKH(DVW©VKXPLGWHPSHUDWHFOLPDWHGHFD\VZRRGEHDPVTXLFNO\VRDVHTXHQFHLV
OLPLWHGLQKRZIDUEDFNLQWLPHLWUHDFKHV1RQHWKHOHVVVFLHQWLVWVILQGWKH\FDQFRQVWUXFWOLPLWHG
VHTXHQFHVIRUFHUWDLQWUHHVSHFLHVLQSODFHVZKHUHVHDVRQVDUHPRUHSURQRXQFHGRUWKHUDLQVOHVV
GHSHQGDEOH2QHNLQGRIWUHHZKRVHFKURQRORJ\FDQEHFKDUWHGLVWKHRDNLQWKHKLJKHUUHDFKHVRI
WKH$SSDODFKLDQV$QRWKHUNLQGLVWKHEDOGF\SUHVVZKLFKJURZVZHOOLQZHWDUHDVOLNHFRDVWDO
VZDPSV
'HQGURFKURQRORJLVWVPDNHPDVWHUWUHHULQJVHTXHQFHVE\GUDZLQJYHUWLFDOOLQHVRQDSLHFHRI
SDSHUDWWKHHQGRIHYHU\WUHHULQJ7RWKHH\HWKHVHTXHQFHORRNVOLNHDVHULHVRISDUDOOHOOLQHV
ZLWKWKHZLGWKEHWZHHQHDFKOLQHWKHVDPHDVWKHZLGWKRIHDFKWUHHULQJ.QRZQGDWHVDUH
PDWFKHGWRWKHWUHHULQJVRQWKHVHTXHQFH(DFKWLPHWKHGHQGURFKURQRORJLVWJHWVDQHZSLHFHRI
ZRRGKHRUVKHPDNHVDJUDSKRILWVULQJSDWWHUQVDQGWKHQVOLGHVLWDORQJWKHPDVWHUVHTXHQFH
XQWLOWKHSDWWHUQVPDWFK6RIUDPHGWKHVFLHQWLVWFDQFRPSXWHWKHFXWWLQJGDWHRIWKHSLHFHRI
ZRRG
$UFKDHRORJLVWVLQVRPHSDUWVRIWKHFRXQWU\ILQGGHQGURFKURQRORJ\XVHIXOIRUGDWLQJVLWHV
7KLVLVSDUWLFXODUO\WUXHLQWKH6RXWKZHVW0DQ\DQFLHQWUXLQVWKHUHVWLOOKDYHZRRGSUHVHUYHGLQ
WKHLUZDOOVDQGURRIVDQGHYHQFKDUFRDOIURPEXUQHGVWUXFWXUHVRUFRRNLQJILUHVFDQVRPHWLPHV
VKRZFOHDUWUHHULQJSDWWHUQV'HQGURFKURQRORJ\JLYHVDUFKDHRORJLVWVRWKHUFOXHVDERXWSDVWOLIH
DVZHOO%\VWXG\LQJPDQ\SLHFHVRIZRRGIURPDQHDUO\YLOODJHDUFKDHRORJLVWVOHDUQDERXWWKLQJV
VXFKDVKRZWKHYLOODJHJUHZDQGKRZKRXVHVZHUHUHPRGHOHGRUZKHQWKHYLOODJHZDV
DEDQGRQHGDQGUHRFFXSLHG)RUH[DPSOHZKHQSHRSOHUHWXUQHGWRDQDEDQGRQHGYLOODJHDIWHU
VHYHUDO\HDUVWKH\ZRXOGUHSDLUUHSODFHDQGVRPHWLPHVUHPRGHOWKHEXLOGLQJVXVLQJQHZZRRG
7KH\HDUWKH\UHWXUQHGFDQEHUHDGIURPWKLVZRRG©VWUHHULQJV
$VPDVWHUVHTXHQFHVDUHGRQHIRUWKH(DVW1RUWK&DUROLQDDUFKDHRORJLVWVPD\DOVRILQG
GHQGURFKURQRORJ\KHOSIXOLQGDWLQJVLWHVHVSHFLDOO\ZKHUHROGORJVRUEHDPVIURPVWUXFWXUHV
EXLOWDIWHU(XURSHDQVDUULYHGVWLOOH[LVW7KH\KDYHDOUHDG\EHQHILWHGIURPDVHTXHQFHUHFHQWO\
GHYHORSHGIURPEDOGF\SUHVVWUHHV7KLVVHTXHQFHKDVDOORZHGDUFKDHRORJLVWVWRGDWHGXJRXW
FDQRHVIRXQGRQWKHERWWRPRI/DNH3KHOSVLQQRUWKHDVWHUQ1RUWK&DUROLQD7KHVHFDQRHVVRPH
RIZKLFKDUHQHDUO\\HDUVROGZHUHPDGHIURPODUJHF\SUHVVWUXQNVE\,QGLDQVOLYLQJLQWKH
DUHD$VDUFKDHRORJLVWVFRQWLQXHWKHLUUHVHDUFKWKH\PD\OHDUQPRUHDERXWZKDWWKHFOLPDWHZDV
OLNH7KLVLQIRUPDWLRQFDQJLYHPRUHFRPSOHWHDQVZHUVWRTXHVWLRQVOLNHKRZFOLPDWHLQIOXHQFHG
ZKHUHSHRSOHOLYHGZKDWNLQGVRIIRRGVWKH\JUHZDQGZKDWZLOGSODQWVDQGDQLPDOVZHUH
DYDLODEOHWRWKHP
$UFKDHRORJLVWVDUHFDUHIXOZKHQWDNLQJVDPSOHVRIZRRGIURPVLWHVWKH\ZDQWWRNHHSWKH
PDWHULDOLQWDFWDVPXFKDVSRVVLEOH7KHUHIRUHUDWKHUWKDQVOLFHWKURXJKRUUHPRYHDEHDPIURP
DQROGVWUXFWXUHVFLHQWLVWVXVHDQLQFUHPHQWERUHU:KHQGULOOHGLQWRWKHZRRGVDPSOHWKLV
,175,*8( 2) 7+( 3$67
KROORZLQVWUXPHQWUHPRYHVDORQJWKLQWXEHRIZRRGOHDYLQJDKROHWKDWLVRQO\DERXWWKHVL]HRI
DVRGDVWUDZ7KLVPHWKRGRIFRUHUHPRYDOLVDOVRXVHGRQOLYLQJWUHHVVRWKDWWKHWUHHGRHVQRW
KDYHWREHFXWGRZQ
:RRGHQEHDPVEXLOGLQJPDWHULDOVDQGFKDUFRDOSURYLGHDZHDOWKRILQIRUPDWLRQDERXWSDVW
FXOWXUHV+RZHYHUSHRSOHVRPHWLPHVGHVWUR\WKLVHYLGHQFH,QWKH6RXWKZHVWYLVLWRUVWRDQFLHQW
,QGLDQUXLQVKDYHSXOOHGDSDUWWKRXVDQG\HDUROGKRXVHVDQGXVHGWKHEHDPVLQFDPSILUHV,QWKH
6RXWKHDVWSHRSOHKDYHGXJLQVLWHVZLWKRXWDUFKDHRORJLFDOVXSHUYLVLRQDQGPRYHGZRRGHQ
EHDPVDQGFKDUFRDOIURPWKHLURULJLQDOORFDWLRQWKHQDUFKDHRORJLVWVFDQQRWWHOOWKHLUFRQWH[W,WLV
YHU\LPSRUWDQWWRRXUNQRZOHGJHDERXWWKHSDVWWKDWZHGRQRWGLVWXUERUGHVWUR\VLWHV
6HWWLQJWKH6WDJH
6KDUHEDFNJURXQGLQIRUPDWLRQ2SWLRQDOSURMHFWWKH¦0DVWHU6HTXHQFH§WUDQVSDUHQF\DQG
H[SODLQKRZWKHVHTXHQFHLVFUHDWHG
8VLQJ¦7KH6WXPS§DFWLYLW\VKHHWVKRZVWXGHQWVKRZWRFRXQWWUHHULQJVDQGGLVFXVVWKH
EDVLFNQRZOHGJHWKDWFDQEHOHDUQHGIURPWKHVWXG\RIWUHHULQJV
$QVZHUTXHVWLRQVRQ¦7KH6WXPS§DFWLYLW\VKHHW
3URFHGXUH
,ISRVVLEOHEULQJLQDQLQFUHPHQWERUHUDQGDFRUHVDPSOH)RUHVWHUVZLWKVWDWHDQGIHGHUDO
DJHQFLHVPLJKWOHQGWKHVHWR\RX([SODLQKRZWKHERUHULVXVHGDQGKRZWKHVDPSOHFDQEHUHDG
DVLQ¦7KH6WXPS§DFWLYLW\
*LYHHDFKVWXGHQWDFRS\RIWKH¦%HD'HQGURFKURQRORJLVW§DFWLYLW\VKHHW,WGHSLFWVFURVV
VHFWLRQVRIWZREHDPVIURPORJFDELQVDWGLIIHUHQWDUFKDHRORJLFDOVLWHVLQWKHPRXQWDLQVRI
ZHVWHUQ1RUWK&DUROLQD+DYHVWXGHQWVFXWRXWWKHFRUHVDPSOHV7KHLQQHUPRVWVROLGOLQH
UHSUHVHQWVWKHILUVW\HDU©VJURZWK7KHVWXGHQWVPDWFKWKHLUFRUHVDPSOHVWRWKHPDVWHUVHTXHQFH
GHSLFWHGDWWKHWRSRIWKHDFWLYLW\VKHHW7KH\JOXHRUWDSHWKHVDPSOHVIURPHDFKFRUHRQWRWKH
PDVWHUVHTXHQFHWRVHHKRZWKHEHDPVRYHUODS$VNVWXGHQWVWRPDNHVRPHFDOFXODWLRQV+RZ
ROGZDVWKHWUHHHDFKEHDPFDPHIURP":KDWLVWKHFXWGDWHIRUHDFKWUHH":KLFKWUHHZDV
\RXQJHU"<RXPD\ZDQWWRGHPRQVWUDWHRUZRUNDORQJRQWKHRYHUKHDGSURMHFWRU
$IWHUVWXGHQWVKDYHGDWHGWKHEHDPVDQGSXWWKHPLQFKURQRORJLFDORUGHUDVNWKHPWRPDNH
VRPHREVHUYDWLRQVDERXWWKHFOLPDWHDWWKHVHVLWHV:KDWPLJKWKDYHEHHQWKHZHDWKHUFRQGLWLRQV
DWWKDWWLPH"+RZZRXOGWKHZHDWKHUKDYHDIIHFWHG&KHURNHHIDUPHUVOLYLQJLQWKHPRXQWDLQ
YDOOH\V"
6KDUHSUHVHUYDWLRQLQIRUPDWLRQIURPWKH¦%DFNJURXQG§
&ORVXUH
+DYHVWXGHQWVFUHDWHDVXPPDU\VWDWHPHQWDERXWWKHLPSRUWDQFHRIWUHHULQJGDWLQJWR
DUFKDHRORJ\+DYHWKHPDOVRPDNHDVWDWHPHQWDERXWWKHLPSRUWDQFHRISUHVHUYLQJZRRGVDPSOHV
LQDUFKDHRORJLFDOVLWHV
(YDOXDWLRQ
6WXGHQWVFRPSOHWH¦%HD'HQGURFKURQRORJLVW§DFWLYLW\VKHHWDQGWXUQLWLQIRUHYDOXDWLRQ
([WHQVLRQV
,QVWHDGRIXVLQJ¦7KH6WXPS§DFWLYLW\VKHHWWHDFKHUVFDQXVH¦WUHHFRRNLHV§7KHVHDUH
/(6621 75((5,1* '$7,1*
SROLVKHGFURVVVHFWLRQVRIWUHHVWXPSVDQGOLPEV7UHH&RRNLHVPD\EHDYDLODEOHLQ\RXUDUHD
IURPWKH86)RUHVW6HUYLFHRUHQYLURQPHQWDOHGXFDWLRQRUJDQL]DWLRQVVXFKDV3URMHFW/HDUQLQJ
7UHH
+DYHVWXGHQWVGR3URMHFW/HDUQLQJ7UHH©V¦7UHH&RRNLHV§DFWLYLW\SS¤
6RXUFHV
)DJDQ%ULDQ0,QWKH%HJLQQLQJ$Q,QWURGXFWLRQWR$UFKDHRORJ\WKHG1HZ<RUN
+DUSHU&ROOLQV
0F*UHJRU-RKQ&6RXWKZHVWHUQ$UFKDHRORJ\QGHG&KLFDJR8QLYHUVLW\RI,OOLQRLV
3UHVV
3KLSSV5LFKDUG/DQG-0F*RZDQ¦7UHH5LQJV7LPHNHHSHUVRIWKH3DVW§3DPSKOHW
86*HRORJLFDO6XUYH\'HSDUWPHQWRIWKH,QWHULRU'HQYHU
7UHILO-DPHV6¦&RQFHQWULF&OXHVIURP*URZWK5LQJV8QORFNWKH3DVW§6PLWKVRQLDQ
SS¤
1DWLRQDO6FLHQFH)RXQGDWLRQ¦7DOHVWKH7UHH5LQJV7HOO§0RVDLFSS¤
3URMHFW/HDUQLQJ7UHH(QYLURQPHQWDO(GXFDWLRQ3UH.$FWLYLW\*XLGH:DVKLQJWRQ
'&$PHULFDQ)RUHVW)RXQGDWLRQ
6PLWK6KHOOH\--HDQQH00RH.HOO\$/HWWVDQG'DQLHOOH03DWHUVRQ,QWULJXHRIWKH
3DVW$7HDFKHU©V$FWLYLW\*XLGHIRU)RXUWKWKURXJK6HYHQWK*UDGHV:DVKLQJWRQ'&
%XUHDXRI/DQG0DQDJHPHQW86'HSDUWPHQWRIWKH,QWHULRU>7KLVOHVVRQLVDGDSWHGIURP
¦$UFKDHRORJ\DQG7UHH5LQJ'DWLQJ§RQSS¤FRXUWHV\RIWKH%XUHDXRI/DQG
0DQDJHPHQW@
:DUG+7UDZLFNDQG536WHSKHQ'DYLV-U7LPH%HIRUH+LVWRU\7KH$UFKDHRORJ\RI
1RUWK&DUROLQD&KDSHO+LOO8QLYHUVLW\RI1RUWK&DUROLQD3UHVV>7KHLPDJHLQWKLVOHVVRQ©V
PDLQKHDGLQJLVWDNHQIURP)LJXUH@
¦7KH 6WXPS§ $FWLYLW\ 6KHHW $QVZHUV
7KH FXUUHQW \HDU PLQXV WKUHH
\HDUV ROG
7KH \HDU LW ZDV FXW PLQXV ,Q WKH VL[WK \HDU
,Q WKH HLJKWK \HDU
¦%H D 'HQGURFKURQRORJLVW§ $FWLYLW\ 6KHHW $QVZHUV
&OLPDWH DQG WKH \HDUV WKH VLWH ZDV RFFXSLHG
,W FRXOG EH VNHZHG +RZHYHU LI DUFKDHRORJLVWV ILQG WKDW VRPH EHDPV GDWH ZHOO EHIRUH WKH RWKHUV DW D VLWH WKH\
ZRXOG VXVSHFW WKDW WKH HDUO\ EHDPV KDG EHHQ UHXVHG
5HPRYLQJ EHDPV UHPRYHV LQIRUPDWLRQ DERXW WKH VLWH©V GDWH DQG FOLPDWH 0RYLQJ EHDPV DURXQG FRQIXVHV WKH
UHFRUG DQG DUFKDHRORJLVWV FDQQRW WKHQ WHOO WR ZKLFK URRP WKH GDWHG EHDP EHORQJV
%HDP % LV WKH ROGHVW 7UHH $ ZDV \HDUV ROG ZKHQ LW ZDV FXW 7UHH % ZDV \HDUV ROG ZKHQ LW ZDV FXW 7UHH
$ VWDUW JURZLQJ \HDUV DJR 7UHH % VWDUWHG JURZLQJ \HDUV DJR 7UHH $ ZDV FXW \HDUV DJR 7UHH % ZDV FXW
\HDUV DJR
7UHH $ QR GU\ F\FOHV WZR ZHW F\FOHV 7UHH % WZR GU\ F\FOHV WZR ZHW F\FOHV
([DPSOHV DYDLODELOLW\ RI IRRG DQG ZDWHU DQG RWKHU UHVRXUFHV PLJKW FKDQJH VXUYLYDO PLJKW GHSHQG RQ
DGDSWLQJ WR WKHVH FKDQJHV KXPDQ SRSXODWLRQV PLJKW FKDQJH
,175,*8( 2) 7+( 3$67
0DVWHU6HTXHQFH
/(6621 75((5,1* '$7,1*
7KH6WXPS
1DPH
7KLVWUHHZDVFXW\HDUVDJR:ULWHWKDW\HDU
+RZROGZDVWKHWUHH"
:KDW\HDUGLGWKHWUHHVWDUWJURZLQJ"
)LQGWKHULQJWKDWJUHZWKH\HDU\RXZHUHERUQ:DVLWDZHWRUGU\\HDU"
,QZKDW\HDURIJURZWKZDVWKHUHWKHOHDVWUDLQIDOO"
,QZKDW\HDURIJURZWKZDVWKHUHWKHPRVWUDLQIDOO"
,175,*8( 2) 7+( 3$67
%HD'HQGURFKURQRORJLVW SDJH
$GDSWHG IURP 'HQGURFKURQRORJ\7UHH 5LQJV ZRUNVKHHW ‹ FRXUWHV\ RI %DUEDUD *URQHPDQQ 6RXWKZHVW
/HDUQLQJ 6\VWHPV 'DWHV FKDQJHG WR UHIOHFW 1RUWK &DUROLQD H[DPSOH
/(6621 75((5,1* '$7,1*
%HD'HQGURFKURQRORJLVW SDJH
1DPH
:KDWFDQDWUHHWHOOXV"1DPHWZRWKLQJVDUFKDHRORJLVWVFDQOHDUQDERXWDVLWHIURPWUHHULQJV
+RZLVWKHWUHHULQJUHFRUGDIIHFWHGLIDQFLHQWSHRSOHXVHGZRRGEHDPVIURPROGHUVLWHVZKHQ
EXLOGLQJQHZKRPHV"
:KDWKDSSHQVWRWKHDUFKDHRORJLFDOUHFRUGLIVRPHRQHUHPRYHVDEHDPRUHYHQSODFHVLW
VRPHZKHUHHOVHRQWKHVLWH"
5HIHUWRWKHGLDJUDPRQSDJHRI\RXUDFWLYLW\VKHHWDQGDQVZHUWKHIROORZLQJTXHVWLRQV
‡ :KLFKEHDPLVWKHROGHVW"
‡ +RZROGZDV7UHH$ZKHQLWZDVFXW"
‡ +RZPDQ\\HDUVDJRGLG7UHH$VWDUWJURZLQJ"
‡ +RZPDQ\\HDUVDJRZDV7UHH$FXW"
‡ )RU7UHH$OLVWWKHQXPEHURIGU\F\FOHVWZRRUPRUHGU\\HDUV
‡ )RU7UHH$OLVWWKHQXPEHURIZHWF\FOHVWZRRUPRUHZHW\HDUV
‡ +RZROGZDV7UHH%ZKHQLWZDVFXW"
‡ +RZPDQ\\HDUVDJRGLG7UHH%VWDUWJURZLQJ"
‡ +RZPDQ\\HDUVDJRZDV7UHH%FXW"
‡ )RU7UHH%OLVWWKHQXPEHURIGU\F\FOHVWZRRUPRUHGU\\HDUV
‡ )RU7UHH%OLVWWKHQXPEHURIZHWF\FOHVWZRRUPRUHZHW\HDUV
+RZPLJKWFOLPDWLFFKDQJHVKDYHDIIHFWHGWKHOLIHZD\VRIDQFLHQWSHRSOH"