A\\stmUnn Agricultural Ecomlmics COlltol'onca
Syuncy tJnivctsil.Yi Pcb. 1993
CHINA'S TEA INOUSTRY A1'1 A CnOSSROAl)S ON tllJl~ J..IONG
l\1AltCU; \VlnCH WAY Anl~AJ)·'
Dan M. UthCfillgton* nnd Keith Porslcr **
* Ecnumnics J)~pnrtml,mt. Resoarch School of Pllcillc Studies
Auslmli(m NmiollallJllivef'sNYt Cnnhcft'u.
+~Aslnn Stutllos. Faculty or At1s
Uui\'('fwity oj' Nf!W 1~lIglmul .. NOI't/wm RIV£If\\\ 1~lsmm'cl NS\V
At'~Ilf{hni!
to Its nlHclul ~Hllisllc!\. ('him.is tcu prnductton Im~ gl'Own ot an u\'crugc nllmlUll'nt~\
of nboul 7q nv.:t lhu laM qum11. f 01 n ccntur)', Tcu cxport~ hllve risen at n &lmUnr rulc. This I~
l
n.nnnrknhic fnr tm>
p~'rcrllljal
crnp. IJowcvcr. dnuht has hl1cn cxprcssl!d wilhln Chinn nud
Illh,'mIlUonally n:pnrding lite UC\:urlll,;>' of lhu puhl\&\lcd inlhrmution. This pup~t examines the nH'lclul
n.'!:onJ for hash: ~~nll"I~lt,.In(.;>' ilnd then
unalyr-.",~
I'UIl\!lhH\,
1h:! n.''tults Iw\'c lfllpllcu\lnn:,
quc~Uon
the
u~~\mlpliotl
lot
purer
til\.!
~ustahHlhllllJ
nllhe rnpld growth
rlllt!s
tlnd Uwy
Umt till! mpld grmvtll HI lC'U output OWl' tlw Ill'sl len yeurs or "Econmnk
Reform" ha!'! I.'HlIsal n.:lnlHlIl wHh t1H! l'I.Horm
'nlC
Ilw datu u!llnl1 n lugg~d production/supply t'cspnnst:
t:onc:hKh.~~
prul..'CI'IS,
hy noting thc Impllcnt.ion!ol lor domestic and Inh.wnnlional mmklJls.
CHINA'S ;l"~t\lNl)t1S1'.tY AT A CROSS ({OAt)S ON1lUtLONG MAltCllt
\VlUCH \VAV AUEAI}?
I,
It'Ui(l(llJ~thm
'nlU worldwide, hobH of tea drlnJdns is n rOI ,Uvely reccnt phcnolucllon nHhoughthc
len Industry
or YC(lrs. UQ·cnust} of this hitilory\ tOil tR much
01' Chinn hl\s " recorded history g~)in" tmck Umusuud~
bcvcrngc to tho Chhl~SO: n slgnitlcnnt cullUre has dcvclnl')Od around Ute industry.
HOWOVCft as stgnificunt. ns the culture m1uht be, tho p{)1Uh'~ tUld cC()I)omlcs or ton hovo had n flt'nfmmd
hnlll\ct nlUlnnall)t and internatiunlllly. T9U has been \Uu~d ON Il cUrt~nCYI os u tux btllie nm! ns n source
of n,WCtlllC. It hus boun thu ,musu of, or Cxc\isa fur, hl()ody WIU'S. Chinn nmdc am) lost n (oreUlle III ten.
With 90 rH.'(Cl!lll of lho wt)rld miU'k~l in lS70 i she only hnd \)Up third of thu murkcl hy tho bagltUling
of this Ccmm')t, r:rum n l)clIk ul' owr J35 k mils hl.IBR61 ' ~XIHlrtN nvcrngud lIbmll90 k lnns rrnm WOO
unlil tho end of \V\VJ, nCIWCCI1 tIlt.! world worSt CX1'Xwts Shltlllltlll to half Ihls lI.lvol. tn t9S0 ChhHI
exported n tncr~\ }9 k tnns and h)' 1970 had only dmlhl~d this nmmmt. However dnmmllc chnnucs hl\Vt~
taken phu:~ shw~ then, T~I\ OUlput cxpnndl.!d ruptdl), through Iha 1970s null the 19H(}s. In 1976, ChhHl
uvcrtuol~ Sri Lanka us Iho st~cond lnrg\.'st world N(l\Jm,'t or tCIl, III 1982, notional output. sUl'passed (he
prc\'itllih rll,~i\k rcconJl.!d in 1u14. tn H)H4, exports heat Ihe pw\,lous rceonl volumo I)stnhlishcd in 1886.
ll~' t9Rs prmlucllOll (S4~ k lnmd WilS uvcr lhl'l.~c and Il hull' times the level or 1971. ()V(!f this same
petlod, C);I"'1tls increased III an even faster rule OI'(H11 5:\ 10 t97 k Inns). T~il hnd hc~olHC Chhu.ls most
valuahle cash ~'rop cXpOl'l. 'nils mph1 Icccm CXJ}ilHstnn In ulllt~Ul IIlld exports is shown ill 1~I~UII·t! 1.
n. The tH'uhltHll
mor<l Hum
II m~rp
l
Som!! nhscrv~)rs
havo
(
tllken U1CI\I.! ,lilalislics I\t ril~~C
voluc and have c>;tl'npolalCd the IrcndN
ttl
furccultt fulure output umJ cx.p0rllcvcls IReddy 1991. Qu 19lJJ}. A shnplc. h!lIsl"Mlunrusl linear trend
or output lrom HJ()J to IORCJ gives n ~ood slnlistll,.'al fit (R~ 1# OC)4) with output
tnereustn» by nbout
17
l\ lOllS l)cr yt!nr and Implies lin OUlput level of ahout 700 k Ions hy Iho turn or the I..'l.mtur}'. A !ou·Unt:ilf
trend glWs tln even bellcf' stnll~Ucul til O~:
=O.VU) wnh It 7.~% rllw or gruwth over thl.! sallle llcrlod.
th,mg tlns growth tatc to 'un:~ilsl 111'Olhll.'IIuU III 200(} AD IInpll~ls (hill output would thun nmrh "hmH
1.1 IllliUon lotIS.: Stich lin mHl'nm~~ would rlJ"Clilllhlish ChUla Ill! Ihe premIer t~a prmluccr In Uw world
lind fundamentally
chan~~
Ihl.! wurhl supply situutiou,
In this pupcr we c>;piUul un earlier work (Hthcrlngton & Forster, 19801 lIud drllw on our
furlllcOIning honk fHthctillnton & Forster} I f)~31 to show lIUlI output fbrccuMN ((Uld llarullcl export
l)fUjt'cllnns) hd~cd un such slmplu treml cxtnlJlolnUons Iln~ hlglll~ unlil,ul y lU ho tI..!lIliso.d. SotlW
Ullcrrmtlonnl CXpt~rtl\ douh! tho roll"hlllly or tho oH'lcinl Chllll)su stn!lsllcs un whidl the cXlrapulnllnfl~
nm hill'.cd. We shaH Hrst all' this VioW cxumillc thu urficint rC(,lol'd in mnr\~ d~lnii ntHJ then utllhmllkc
further MnllsUcnl unulyscR ur lho dilln to derlvo an nltornalivc sct of cunr.:hIKlnns.
I
CH I NA ·S
~reA f:lr~aOUCT ION
11:llHl ... 1!H1il
\!J6!J
1Oliff)
is r,
1t) 118
ANO eX.r:?OF1TS
19UO
'I'l~Anr.
"'-"'____...
I~igur(.\ '.
t~
t;~ t. xti(\lH!j
flf'r If, INU} /1IltlfHJt;1' ION
.._.___'o_."._·. ______
_~"""j~
____
..,_.:._ _ _ _ _ _~
i..~
Ill. l)utu rcHuhlHtl
tllt' uUl\.'hll record nl {'hmL'M: tea prmhKlllm IIml cXflmlN '''' Ilot L'utlsllhm.lt.l to bCl*nliruly fcllahh:
'llh: \VnrhJ lhmk.
tnl\krt,d~l'\
un
IIIUlUill revww of the world ten Imdc. 'nICS,,! n.·vlcwli lU:kuO\\llcdgc th~·
uUIlortanl,:t' u( ('t~Hhl'h UllJuCnt;~ un lIulI \,'tlltltHH\ht), In 1()8~.lhc Hallk I.!xl1r",~scd thc vu.!w thilt ',,\ IiIt/JUI
W1H'f'ldrtll\ In /ltIUll'
lwrld Iblcu'kl lett ampUl IU'lJjl.l('ltnnv is IIIl' pflJs/u'rtx (~I Cltwtl ',v Mock
l(t(1
1!J'uduuum' (World UnnklCJfW. Jl,I.~~J In the Unnk:s IUWL· fll(CCilSIs. CIIIn;es jwlInn,s were h) tlC(.!umt~
t.:ntu.ai II ib btilel\. h,m (.~Xpuff1i \:unHnucd
(0
urow al "Itn ruther than iiI half Ihitl nUe, wmld hlm:k 11M
pnt'lJllt ',,'ere CMumlwd to lm H)f;y luwer (hall th\!)1 would nlhcrwl!\1.! be fly tile turn ul Ute ,·cHlury.
'l1u.: f)c("IHnht!f I ijcm
wurhJ
lr~ldc"
lUtludc" "i\wh
nun.~ tC\,II.lW,
whHa
cHllllnum~'
tn
rCl:n~nlw Ule crHt~al
rule
uf
CIulla JH
J)hru,c~ n~
'fJermHl' Il'Imbk\lalWtn tire 11m tn'tIllable', rftwc(\ bifid: (im l'\lwnv an' IliAc'" 1I.~
lJutplll
t
Ami. 'data lnt China tlrt' 1101 (Wdilahlt! • tr,.()KI. /\nd. itllililt
'1ll!fdllW (~llll(t Ii/(. k lIf l't'/ltIIJ/t' Slllllslws IIml IIu' (UIl'II.m't SUlPl' .1m' SUIHlllwum h,'IW('('t!
Mark tlml mlU'r /t,'(IS. II t.V r/(f/IC'Ull to JU'Uj(!Cl (,/U1U1 'S ('.lImns (1m (('fla/J/(' datil
pfmlut:titm flf "1m k mal
aluml !Itjf. p.a.· h).70j.
UtJH.IIVN, •..
black It,,, t'lJltn't,Y
('.llSt jllr
1It'l- IJI'Ojf,ICiflfl 10 ilh '/W/S(' 1II
'nu> World llitnk isnm UIOtlO HI hllvmJ! lfonbI8n.8'(1'h~ raUuhilHy of urncHd t;lllUNUCS on Chhu,t g
leu iruhlSlr>!, ~ tthhuhCntlC.Qtn blls ol~ubcCH v(llcelJ. und n'llr~IHlV<'Ihccn w.riousUH~mrlR nt
itnl,ruviug the nccur.,cy or tho dllhl,H~lXln figytl!s JiuhU~hud by Uu~Minisrry or Phrctgn Trlldc
t
t ·Mnfcn } nrc dHTcrcnt tn thosupublfshcd.hy llul C\tSfnnL~ l)cp:mmcm.Flgut(ls forHHlpfOvlm:cs
rmhhshcd by the centrul llov(!(fUncntMQ onl)ndn'r~tQnl;tnUmsu (~Uhlish~d hytho tnovincen lllumR~JvC8.
Uchm! lhercforrns or UJiS, \todrUN u.m} (~OImntln~s were 01lUll rcwnrdCd (wUh. fur Insumco. ;uldnlmml
chctull:nl f~tUli~ct) un the basis or' MW arcns phluteU.'nto bum"ln datn repntU"abins W(lS. UICt\, ill
tavnur or ~mltll~ ufil9 p1Ilfltt*d, rn n)"/~. ZlIoJiant-t ,m)Vh'lc~ llHUnted if. sUfvCytu dutl,!rmhlU how
much hmd wus IlCIlHtUy f1illnt4!d \tml,~r tml. lly WHO, 4~ nfl lhU' 58 IcuUfowing cmmtl~~s had hc~m
sllry~~)cd Owrall the ilfun under tea WIIN 1a, 'iiiS, less Hum fCr10ttClJ flsmCi. InlfCU cuuntics wcru fuund
to have Oft!} ~n In 6UQ 01 • , Uh'a tll!.'!}' halt rmrvuulkly (cptlth!(L Howuvu,\ this nHClnpf ill n.1ylslng, the
mhmUilUuu hilS!! m un~ nl ('hllla·" hest cnduwtld l,ru\<.tnc:cs. was uS(·lrf.'tm"'.s~d nJr tho lmsly I'mmncr
m \\inch tl WUli cnnthl\:tcd {lIn. It}XO.,
ildIU\tC\) In ten,,''''l the ~urvc~ ft'\ull·!i,
pr
'
H4'}}. hmh!.'nnnr~t lhl') ptuVnHaid hgur~'k hi\w fl('Wr t~fJn
In fl'iJilhlln n\UI1ult twu tfcnth have cmt'rf(~d 1'lf1it IIH.'r~ hali nlsu been un un~UI.ug hUlb Ulwnrds
u\icr·rCrjuum~' uutPI)t ttl uhtllUl lc.rhhM'f Idh)1..:m.Mn~ nnd
htf~4:t' Ih)\\"\:\l't
lulhl
m'muu"rauv.t~b' Il!ii~J~ncd
pmdtH.'lloU
\Hell tll\! mtrmJu~:thlH uf HMJur nM.rlttHmt:.rc'urm~ m ItlK"'. n m.'w r1UhHlUnt hUlk wn~
mthKlth:I.'fl W,l,tl.~r,)t"iNr!!!l!tHUm!!l hy JlfudIH"':I'~ Ilnd pfllU"~tlfil tu •.IVUhJ
1111.'*\1 \ilXCS umJ rtmrgclI: tl'lmacr
I'm} It \uUlfli Ill; UN' ~ul'Jln~t.' th~·th hI he lollJ h~ uUlt'm)!. \\Hhm IhIJ mdu~lry lhal lht·y ~:tlt!P Itum uwn
ll
M:ll1C \\hut (ht'~ r~ull'hhn YilUltahl) atlHl14h:d ,hIlU" Ihld Umnrt~ llu:umt~l}' rcfl\'\:t lh~ n.~ill NUtHJlIlln (ii\llm
1dU,·h \l~~W\, nth!
"tuuM 'UUHW Ilrt' Wurld nlmk·~J.:ad nnd \l.handon furthl!r~tI\U~lh;at InmtY}iiR. Hnwl:wt"
v.~~ \ HtlMlJttf' n IfHllUllllnt
tn rt"C)jilHml~ lilt' I'tf,u:ud ~hIlHdl':h lIud l.iXI'Jnn,~ In 'nm~ ",,'pth whal Hmy Hnpl}
fl..'J,Wurdmp hthu\.' uutrlut Itt\dli
IV.
t.nuktul! hchUtd
Uu.~
lmhllshtl.1 uufptn rl1cnrd
In Uti.: dCI.adc hllttlwm~~ th1~ nunul~nt,l.tuwnt nl rcl.unn~ In the llttfll..'ullUtIII NIJ,'tnr (ttflH .. HR). ICi.
mUlmt ullt.1 xwJ.d! l'h,:tI.'.l'~"·4.J til ilhOlH 1'1: Iwr dumuu. l'nr Un)! It·) (.x:·!"'ur nvcr un t:;xh!thletlrwnnd fot im)
\.'('up 18 tI hUll 1m (' ~ thl~ l~ C~JWt:lUlI)i Ifue lin U [lcfl;'fHmll Over Ih.~ MHlW l~rukJ. UUU..!fcntl'lj\' pl~tn)rmCd
h.'\.~ t:un~tklcmly hlf'
Ule Itv\:' years 19'1K " I'JR'~
tnaU)1
other (.'mps IU Chnm (·ullllmmidJ.) alsu \htlw~d
lara.:cpc.t ;mnurn vlI:hJ uwr':U'lJ:ft hm. unllk\.' fCr.l. U1CS(.l 1l1(;,n:nsclt fell un HI
iI.~ I' ~hnwfj In Tnhl~
In the
L'1l\C
ul
Ih~ ,'\c(.und hall
or til\: dl!t:mh,J
It
tellt
wfnlc tht: rille
ul wtUl,;h~lcJdt\
haw
Hc~m Ilh;h~it"m~ ls cxt.t4'IUlJly mllm~Milw.
tIlt: lJCllIllllcwb ur~ MIn \l!r~ ~·l\\;.i '~'ttlds nrc hl\\' Hl rclaHnu fo (hUhC' fl.'pur'h!d thr tQ14~18 (ufl/lut tlO(i
kg/hll .. sec PerkinS I .~()t) I. Uw yJl,~ld!t ulhlCycd nn Stille 1!l.rm~ n .S(X) tn over 2.00u k!Vlm) HI t~lmilm
3
p.rOVinCQS (llangsn '.md HIlUumllmd cuulltl~s.;md
III rcs~H.f4:h ImaHlIlCS (o\'~r 4)OOOkallml n!thctln~lon.
tt}9Ul.
'i'1),bl.
..~
••.•.
nl1f;~Qg
~u.~
ar~itHI
l,i',''\WI
•.
growtb 0;
I' Rats of growth
C!<>teQtl
"
c);,Qrl}"~e1.dn
w~ • • • • • "~ • • • • • ~ • • • ~.~ • • • • • ~~ • • • • ~ • • • • ~.
O£l, et('J~tJ
a\l~~
p~af)
~
$\.\tt~t
T~l,\
beat
4.35
1,94
"LOd
l.14
~l 1<02·
7.00
=cCG=a==DQ~a
fh)lH'efl! Pf~(~ ('bula tnu~1,l ~nDti(Jtti!':{ll Yt~llt~book, vnt~:L(;mtl iem.mn.
luw Juvcl or {Ihtnats nggrogntc tuu y"Hdfi. tUtu
cnHlf')iH'tsun WHh lndm. H,r CXlml'\',~, IS slilrk. In lUUl}" Chlna*s nvemgc; Ylcld was ubout iOO kgltm whHe
flmt nflndlil Wits nCiftl~'~\{)O(J kg/ha Wtth Hearly hatt of thi,! wml{f*!) tntar i~111 nnrdl.!ll!h t!lmm pmdUt~U8
unr~; "huut 2Wl tl[ world nUlpu(, fndl:h Wilh teN!) than 2U rif uf fotat unw, rlfnduccs over 10(~l:i uft.nHp\/i.,
with ytchh luut unWfi htlAhlH'
11 ,~ ,7kiUl} vlJry Ullputlant to cxplnm why Chmll*s uwrugc :iteMs WUll1ulll{Hlll arCIl) ute so low
hJI4,'rUiJIW1HlI f.'umtmnsotllt connrm tlw vct)'
ami wh} they
IM'H: h\!~n lfh.ft'aMHlt Nn
hl,( len
t~ n l~n!nnmllirnllwhh:h
gcmmlHy lukes
'htc~ },ClUS:
pt:nk Yl~'ldh Output rC!Sl'HHlSCS w:.SPOliSlhlc
m th\!' ,hurt nm fJ poul'I)' nMUil~CtJ tit' nc~lt't'll.!d ndd~ arc hruughlluto full rruuucUun thmu~h n!guhu
(lrumng. \'d!I!~hn)! am.l h.-mII \N' apph""illItIIl IlnwCH~', Inn1!.~!r·t~rm inl.'rCHSCI% in mHplU rcquirl'! more
~xtcn~lW flJillIlmp.r~Un\;UUHn ul ulLl fI~·hh nr rcplunHnp wtthlughcr >'J~IdtU~l vuriulius. Respmls('!~ in
Uu'! til\l' wnuld h~ uh~~'r\'cd nVl!f II dccnd~ or mute rather than nVl!rlt t'uuplc uJ ll~\Jts" 'l1lIJtu is i1 uccd,
fhen, u' lunk hack at the \VU~fr\ lU \\!m:lllhc prcvtllus p.tln:y re~lmc8 COVCrHl!J the 195n~ lUnlcnrJy HJ(){ls.
nnd tile fK'l'lOd nlllw euJmrul Ucvuhmnn f 10{)M1{» nffccwd Om ten lu.Julifr}'.
,lJgUff.' 1 ~huw.l'i n ,*tcUd)1 1,npmvcrm.'nJ In nHl(ml durmLt the I(HOb' nus umfcd UhfUr)rly tu JOnl
with the two ),t!ilr" ul' nuturid dl"iMt:'f thnt 'UUtlW4td hard uu (he Iwct~ of the lIe trcal lA~·ttp Furward!>,
r'ltJur~ 2 I;h()w~ that flit:' ft!cort.htd lWW, droflP~ld stwrph frum II peak of 4Of'~ till ttl W5t) tn nnly at f
k lin In It}(d. f(~cnVC(f MnrtmJ m f'll!\ '11111\ WU~ hlUowcd by llIl vuornllHlS ith:t'lJil!~C In rc..~onktf ~,
tlm'lng the t 2 Y~'llt fwrmd f{)(.~n7. Nat.h1fliJUYt this Willi n 2(}WH HI~!tcn"'! • it growth fUll! of' Oh't ~)(~ l'K:r
,CIlr. 'nus Nfiod l'nUWltl~A\ wUJlIh~ CullumJ Rc\'uhHl.un ur Ih" ~o,cilllc\ll1'l'~n Y\!iU'!i or djsnlfh~r", In lO(!H
ttl \,'omc HUn prndu",Uun It mkc!s Utl lu h!t\
the
r~cnrd~d
ul~r~uMn.J
ymlt~ In fldu~!~c
"Arei' Plunt(.!d u fCClJycf4'd ttl tlill lc\'(!l ttl W5'J. Ovrr Ute
hy Rt;r
(WI'
Un~~c YCllflii I t)(.x tu
1'1*/1. Ihe IltCIl
)leut. Over Ihe lIext (IV!! rcm'b Un 1()'1CH the un'iI !tn-w lit tilL' f,hctUlUWHul nlte 01
mmrly ) ''Vj~ lx:r nmmm. In
'lb 1~llInl b\lch lnr11Q
19T~
IImJ nglHn the {ullm\'irllt >ICIII\ IfiO k 1m Hi tt!u wvw plilUlCd
urCUN fWI!r l\Udlll
hllort lwriud willi NudJ n t.!cnscly lllimlc.'d pcrl'nmn.l ~'rUI'llh
4
h~~Jis qllltorOtuurkubJu. 't1ti$.ls c()tHvQhmt IOphn~lm~, 'h~ tnUJlllrCU~ma~r t~.~lhl SOUtlJhtdHl. ntK~nYlh
in JU,.l tnluycat ()t7Stl [.nnku·s t.ntld ICir nr~~.in twuyt)ttrst
II;
11Iktn~c:UUll
tunny ChloQ~O lQn ~t()d"~Jn)A,
llfOvmc:c&buvep:>tmhmotls H1!XXC~N8 r~f mOSf, cmmtfic:s,Ncvcrth~lus8. tnQ; u~Jmtutsttnnyc· nmJl(}S;i~Uc
Ulsks Of hmd prermrntion. nUl'scrymlUuJucm~mnndPlmmng Dnthln~C"ltQ is mludh()~SUIlB' Ind~cd. the
HCldu uf" lh\l plnlUinllls nkln to 11' miUtlrmnUnty nflCmU()n~ '{1nJ; mUh'l'lf.fUmlloU>t Is n!l~d duUbefm~l}lt
\lIJClnJse ;11 Ih~ JlItUunlllphlmlmg. cwnfurcw:.Q ill nno. UIU sloUI1f~; IIllJ't~ tlUJ mmlm)~ WtMJWl1tt to
olw!tVtJ'. (~ju!r:k (lnd iII~{"eml'tU Cl!t1f'\'lllmg." W'.~JJ: ill y()SUO n~tu Sull1hm&.:Wu Quonun, l08G.j). 155;1.
tH' NA Ei
r[~;A Ar'1E~A ~
'I~llm ~
Mnd~'rn
Chml,p,l: nmumHlfllrJcs. wInch h:t\·c
C)VTPlJ"& E:XTl:tc)RTS
"IQll~
gcn~trnU)'
n:vJJ\!d the
l!l:nnUUllt' pnlidl;:.& utlllu
Culturul I{cvnhlllun. hdVU not sought tn deny or revise lbe tt:H!ltaUSU"h hw thL1SC YClln" 'Ilm
'Juullly of
tlm!i~ 1)J;mltnJt~ 18
nnnfhcr rnaHt!f. however. um! llierll fms
t'H.~cn lIom(!
.(mwamt
rc['t!(crwc It) Ihe
unMUlllhlluy uf hit:nunn· und ttmhmusltuf UfJhll'!ltilhHshmenL ;nl~ II1\(uuml growth in \Inn! uf 200(jf over
the f'wnudJ(m5177 wns ('uUnwed ()\lut Um ne>;t
Mnhm~cd.
J: )luntR (In WRt») hy !In UlcrCU8~ nl' ufdy 5'1f . ;nH~
,suuvlmlln~'m
pullcy not to cnlnrgc lffurlhcr.
Offh:ml filIltUdi.t'!i tdmw uun Ihe pfnntHlll nmJ n!ptmll mg WUt\ WldcRPfCrut. Th!.!h,m.iJ!.CU.1U thu ~~wun
fUHUUHd
Um nnw uPf)lJars tu rmvc nnw
lind it
I1rntWClHi fnr which wn hnv,~ mJ~(umtc Inhlf'nUltlUn C'~uhl~t ~)I grew hy 2a"/'h' u'tcr u,~ periud HJ05n1,
5
Sum~r;:l)VinC~N luuJouU~ CM.rltt)fuhmtyijXr)lm~J(m or UuHtl~ll
~r()YillC\l of S.hmmJ<.it (mo
nruus . mmu motu tm 'h~\ntho northern
iuChlnn. H(:r&~t HI n lU!!mJ)l\\
y~.ur:;. the fitenlucrunscu nhllosl ftyc: foldl N()~ tmty l~ nu: c~tllm O(lhlHfllimnUB ~slrlJ()t~Unnty hut ulso
mQ; 'ItlCIUhm, fl1lesoutlt~m·c'mntjcs o,~ Slmnnxl r(!l'.r.Q$~mt lhQuorthcrn uxttcnw of'("hhlU'g ttH' orcas (339
I'll jUt'.t soutb,of tho 'y'~lInw tiwrl.llmmn Ht~ Jl whut~ Ihu growlns 80nson 18 nnmc:dtn~l () ~ Z1U tJ"Yti~i
It ·shouh,l bu UOlcdUmtlh!! gmwlh of' tlij} nrc It In Yunmm .(llle, maJot~"!I!,tuc~.· 011 bfnck lCn),~ mn utI srcJ)
wUlI U1Q uthcrpmviUces: Us t~rh~t ·of rnphlgmwth stnrtudhlt~lt nmJccmHnucs fmot.ho' Ijn~H)80s,
uf UJij
IQi'~I.iml)()(hnltICIJ.,pr{XbH~hltll)I~(lVincCH
:HHHl
~IO.
?,hwJ l(~t'u
h
16'1,1
110.:t
Anhltl
~tLfi
IhlrllW
\ ;W"UVf' i"jnn
;JEt • f:d *'1f) 1
i
ULHlil\U
I
15
Ml.7
'LH
1
..;)'\.
:tumu.tJ~
1}Jf~,8
~
~HL8
t
r:t.·Uh>:)
Tatll abovn
1ae
Ull
m twt
,.W#
*;H(,
J'r
200
461
U40
l
t.i f):;
f'f,) t ..
603
1,014
~;.;
..
tll1 t'nl'fHlf'Hj
33G
N.tlon~l
453
l.,Ot;'l
~~
Tlw r~~'cntl)! r~hnlsl.!d liJ!ur~!1 lor thi.!
itt\Zd
under tt!U l<'uilbk'd
Us tn
,
(
.'
,
dtlwJop it 81l11f\licUI modul tu
nrmlysc lh"'lf II.nplh.'iltloU\ fur the tmtu~lr>,,!I lulutc uutput ,MIlI.lIlt 'r1m nmdel CUU\I:rtk thl! tlm~·scriCS
UiWl ust'd iI) '·~Jgntc2 mlu u form lllllt fl.'roHIU'.cs the colton ultiul: ~trm:turc uf nc\v r')antiuw~, llu!
tCNultmg function show~ how IhlUultill,i~hJ\t IIle th:vdullIUj}, Hwl wtwlht'f! unUuHill poJIt;ICIi lhlve lind tlH)'
t!Hcct UII
I.
~lcJds,. 'J11C
'r'(Hl hU!\I!OSl
H1udt,J wus devcloped us fuHnw1i:
mIJusurcd by the
year oller plammJl, ruHmv
It
nrn(.:'HlII'I,!.~nnl\Jd Uf~ll.
were nssullwd to shlfl yichfillg in HIe third
cnhnrt U~UHU palWtn. nud .!mil Ihut'IH4tnmry ot 'mnlur~' hll~ht!sln
lhuir t'U~hth yent.
2.
Jin~h ug(J cnhtltl m' vlIll.ngu
WI!\ r.~l\.!ill~urcd
by Ihl.!
hlt~rcU~(l
In
I.h\.~
lolnl pl,lutcd orun fmm nne yenr
to Ill'" nux" 'nils WUN donI,! hCf.'tlUSI: ttl!! dn'" gl\'(! nn Infutnmtluu on n~w {,Iaullngs ~~. Inm
cXCCpUOlllU this rule rur U!)M!SfoIilln new NtIHlln.lts IN in pcriuds IbllnwlUn mitlur arcn dccn.'i\'tcs .
.t
No nllnwnm:o 1S mad", rur lea hush wortality. tfl,uNlntlsHcs dunl with IhmlSfmdlt nfhltClnrUS mlhvr
Hth~dnsum
~t
&.PotSJct
lhnn ubu$h~oum~
tnl~lmmiu 1949 (lSSk .h~) wns IlsHumcd Jol~1 maLUrubut luu~cd \)f rclUtbUltuUol).n WitS
llNsutncu th~~tdO% or ,1m! "re"·n~cd~'1 tChnbUlII)HfmUtld UIl\tlmlf IlfU)}/i W()u)(J tnku; oneyonf~ mtd
Inc mhct hnlf tWtl )'(!!lfS* tu tcludymt{ltU. As such. ~{)% Jofncdmu6 y~llr~nld (:c.ihnrt: ut.,! 2()%
JOfUC~UH.l
7 y~arltoJd COhOtf~ jnle~e ASS\HnpU(m1tnt~ in
keeping wUbl'Juute~ lnr th~ ncslcclcU
nrolls rcmwnJcdnmJ rt:clnlm~dtnI949.5~ (80 k hnl, nnu· tJUdH~ the l'itsf 5..\'(,nu"I)lnup\Wuo fir
S3 k, nn (Cfl(!tl t~hunn, HIM. 11t 5(3)l
~,
Of u,~· Jocnm!lu III ntcl't~tw'\~n 1049nnd 1954~ ludfof UIU Jltcn wns u~Rum(!dm bc< ~n the N{)CP.~~
ufrulHllHlltiUIUlh joilllUttth~ 6 y~nr~uld cu)mtl* nmllmH'woR: ns~umclJ 10 be UIlWlllutHlnn.
{tl'ur ~m.'h )!cnr fmm. Jt,U)'l .tn'lJltJS~ thcl.tlrr{!~ls~ in men wns l\fi$UJUUd. tu he dividud \:qlWUy
bct\,,"t~cn 1l"W phmJ.jug6' uHd rchahilunUcm or nrcitsduUhml gnuu OUl: urrtrtKJocUou durmg thu
)'~.mrs
1
K
of nillurul
All mature
t1~51U~h!r
bU!itlc~
l",w\~ft'J~ HI till
(J t}(JO.()~J
werc nssmm~d to h~ phlckv.d.
{utili tlaUurmf 1l1'C~1 tl(1()O"(l~, ffJIm, It.JK,J"H(h mul{tJKK) wafutrcIU\~d n~ remm'uJ~
fmlll UI~ lm1,U!!l melt.
tJ
Thl.? ,J,Hn
lum
gni~~
nn mh\UHafluU un U1fHhng, nbaudmwd nnm!) m lCfllitfUmg ur ~XiSIU1D IlrCIiS wUh
hu~ht:ltnHlJi
pn:vcnJ!'1 u h.Hcr Illudcf 1i1'IccUII:nluul sud} its
\h~ IIm~rUilUmm)
nlUdel uf
AJiJ!i.lUlJit A, 'nard. {jJ1Mj\l dud 1*J)!l11J}
U,
nrnml:Hn~ UlC
datu hy ilNc t!uhurts nr vml.iIQc~, hW Ittrm.:lmcs an.} hum mtu tilL} uue sC\luunC'c.
'flu,1 mod!'!(· llii (htm CSWlmIJ!lI mtcrm~ uf J:Js.!~ tnItH:r than !~~IOPI. 'f'hct\c twu an: refilled by tfm Identity
Ulal tilt' tWt'rnU iJycmgu X!t.!hl m uny )'I.mr -,' rlUJ!il cqunl tnllll.Quuml thvid~d tty (hI.! hHol ~;rPD uf lun:
Till'
U\~riH!\! ~'lcld
lur
It
JlCfCUflidl crop IJl un:; llUt.! ~~ilr Will lw (.lctl.1nmll\!lI h> (hI.! !l!;~ILlnru.!.UJ. uf
the plnmh Ihal aw III the dillcrcm
IIgc
llrml()/i m IImt ),ellt. 'nils fclnUouslUp Iii
t!XIHChM:tI
JI)
l!f}Unlhm
.3 wiler!.! fhen.' ltftl ,\\<o pmpnt'llntl vH'ldhJmi. PtMf und Plil tlJprctlcmmg Ille tcl.. Hvt' Hmuunt of the fclt nrcn
lhal lS mil/Ut'll IUltllllwwllIH'
w uny Ulm yellf."
7
Whctll:
Is lhc nvcfllllllVOfllgO teu yluldf in KDnu"ln yenr l, (t ~Wf;O to 1089);
ht Ihu 11ml\(ltUnn l)f Ih\,l t¢it nmll.lhnt Is JUIHUfOltl yent (,
is 11 11tOpofthm. or Ih~ hm nnm Hlin fSil<)fcntinfly yiuldiml bUI !UUtlIlUJrl.l in YUftf t;
Is It rent .tcn ,trice mdCxWHl PurclmsIJPtl'~p lndc~/Pt}{HJ R~tl1iJ Pflcc Indt:;x) Ibt th~p{)~t·(~uJtutIlJ
i'.
I'~t
I~K
l"t
nuvnluHnn r~riud, I.\l, NHl~'1l
tQ7H~
Iii tln~ int.v.l.l~Cf\( t~llnslmu !lnd rt:Jlr~~cm~ Un!cnntrihutiun uf Ihose. nnms omiUod ftum tho
Un
e,sWWUluu;
lIS Ihe' f1ammch!t ttll lhl: Pf'tlfRltI.ion of .Uloturu rmw, Mlllmny IS nSlHlmcd tu p(! from yunr~R;
IN the pi,mUlIH.t:r fur lh~ pntl!nUnll~ )'iuldiIiU hut !mmultlrc leo lIr4m (In fnel .• only thu cnclTlclUIlt
UIII
J~I
fm the 11ropor'ttnn of 1I!It Hllt\t( () jIm], "
Up
is iI Nil.:\.! n.R!fll":Hml~
I~,
lit II bS! ul
~'(MrN
nIt.! Wll~ slIUlHh:nnlJi
duuun), rMlillUci\c'(fot tnt' p\mmh ul 81p,rHllI.:aJlt floll~:Y t'IIlHlgC. fur lJ~lUn,lIc, (hI.!
IhllUl'ul DJSASTt:f (I'Jltt,·(fl); Ihl.' lltlJU\tJII~'Ul lltmmJ
IlADJ
Ot)(~l",~};
nnd Ii Icnnthy
~Cilr~
uf
WlUlHph~j
poh\.') r.:wmc tUP( HJ('Y i tlIV,,'Wlll huth 'hit Cultural IttwnlUlIWl ilwl UI\ Unnwduuc uf!crHliHh
n (}{)'i. '110) It JJJJ!~ tlw 1J1Ilhtl Jvturm y,'Oflii ul I'J7(} In I'JH4 ~
l~
OJ
the ctror I.ernl
'11n~
model hlkcb oUh:lill fWun!s ill fnrc villu\.' und I1SSUIl1t.HI
ttHlllnt'rcltsl.!~
In tOlll!unm INucfnl.ly
rc/'cn to Ui.lW pJamm!tlil Tlw n:llfcxs\nn rt!fIj!lH~ iU'~ pW.li:I.!UfcdIH 'fnhh~ 3. 'flle u\?ttmH 'fHI j~ uxlflHll'dlultN.
1>1
yt)od (ur n )'J\!Jd IJUl(kl wllh
of f),f)l 'n)~~ Durhin '\Vllt"fHJ tcst l\uJUt~"ts lJun UUICl~
nul 1\ prnhhnn.
lurrt'lillloll '"
aMi
II t:om!cl~d ){.!
Jl~<ttu ...
n«lgrf~"or
ton
IJ!4l11_ 3
n ... u~ttl tm; f14til:.ltHUhl y.hHI~ IIlOdllJ,
llrltaH'ld*"Jlt V4thblt j .• MW Til.
PfU·~tfI"tn
CQQtUI1~f*nt
Uu(l " tlJlHI
yxatln
Hrl:ot~
tH:lHJdlu'Q
'l',nltt!o
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'mo cmU'nr:lums or OnUilUOU 3h!lV~l() h~ Irnnsrormcd 10 obmtnthQ \lUI\1 ~Iul(t coufnclQntsw 'nJ(~·
I,tlU,srurmntinnis douu by mulUl,lyhlU 'hmu"h by thu l'llnl urea (A, 1 nod cullccUnUlOflUff, fnH~
cncm\11~m rot HIll tlftWOl'ttou uf' fhQ Ilr~n UUltiti m;Hur~ Is hJ~hty s{gnHlcnnt, tllllstmnsromt~ Inlo lin
(WCI'UUU )fleW or nbmH 48~, kUnll\ uhu ~um ut~ J~'l nnd J};; JIUI 1H5,5 '*' 296,5). In)l.~ cncmcJcn~ n)r Ull,)
Unnmmrc. nr~n Ohl! Rum u{' J)lnnUn~H or Ult~() om! 7) Is signlrl(mnt. '1110 trnns"()tnn~d yl~Jd ,~()urnciUIU
1I8S!' IHO) nnpJicR nUlt bushes ur~ this "Su cutllrlb\ucd v~ry 111(\(.1(0 mHpu, whUu 1It1 ulhor b\l:JhoN fOlWlhcr
"(~mrihufcd 185 kl4~la, I\n orHclo by (:Idncsp sJ:ho)nrs cnmcmJs Hml IHlU<umJ yloJds {(lrORumnbJy tnnfUru
ylcldlt) have mlHillnud cnnstllHllH nhmn .U')S kWhn sineu HMQ <Shun Kc.tll find WlIU'1 himiuy, 19B7}.
'nus figun: Is v~"Y {.·Ius~ to our USllllliHI.I.
'111e prh:c vMmh't! is tdnnlnl:llIU 1111\1 of tlw rluhf sfl'lh hut (he fmr1Hclf cfnsllcfl)t (sullJy nhmll IOU
nnd i~ugRQsl~ Om, price hus nOI hell/) flU tmpUfl.iUlI dl!lUrmllln.llI of mHJlIlt. dC(~Jl'mUlsl 'nj~rQ JW(!dH W bu
11 gn.mt ~l\!ilJ ur 8ClJpll",'lsHI fl.'gnnliuu tllC: UPllrl)prllltcucs s ul' Ihls or uny nlh~r l1ricfJ RcricH In m~mmrc (hI)
dcgf\,'U tH 8\1(\I)ly UI4'~nUV!) rU~l.!d hy prot.hlt'Ufl! Illr~ In nddlllnn tu lilnndnrd IlrtH:lIrClHl.}UI prl(:cs, Ihem WL1fC
honus prICe!), :tub~hJh!s nut! 'hilHVf' nlln~'lIllnUIt of hJI)UI~ h,'!lcmJcul
{n~c
"eruU>!,!.} Imd (~lIWmmflUon goods
nnd culton clotlo, Funhcllnnttl. i~\lch II IlI'I",'u IntfCl th)C1\ 1l00luhc info m:cnunt t:lmnguR In tllu ,'OMs
nr prndUCtltlH
rn nddltHIU. Irnm n ImllL! year 01
I ')~2. IJH!
l!nUH!JI W\lN u~cr toO until (ltlX. 1iHln~ wll\!11 it th'~' hlhm
1\11
UC~~iJllW
tlh.! thHlUII~1
The
dUlJuUY
IHlJ~!x
or
Ih~} t~l!lllYs plln:llIIsu t)rlc~~
01 fUll to
sharNy.
\.'ud IU:I!lIlt!! urt' !\lillllil1~'illl)! /ill}UUJII.'llIIt lind. hut for th~\ IIdJusl.mt:tU j1\H'lod, tire
fur the
)L'M~
oJ
'hllUt'ill
lHSI\h'lcr (l(mI/1,
til II
possih/{!
nrlll~pnlic)' VUflllhh,!.
Durnil» '1)lJf[kllml." fur thl.! Culluml nt'Vlllllllnn and UN UlIItlL!diIiIC 1Ilh,mmHh (1(){j~nH) nlld lIun for Ih~l
uHlwJ houschnlil rlJ~p01JMhUH} rcform ~l'ilf" oJ W7fJ1R4 w(mJ
lit CqUilllol'J ,. AHhnU!,I,!l Ihctic t'~~fl"l'."cnl dllllim"1 polk)'
\ltlr)"
similar tlwl
Wt.IJ'C
Uwrclhrc l'Klolcd
rcgulIcs. bnlll had Slmnl!ly HcViltlW l'oL!1 rh;i~ms.
'l1ltli tlllpllc~ lhnt Imlll had fh!llllllW JlUPilCI~ Oil h:urnHlI) nUlpul, The r\!liull hlllhc CullumJ Itt'YoJullnn
~:(1Ullt
he cxpluin(.!d hy fhe dJWrRIOfI of l!lICO,llaN
uUlh:rlilkcl! dllrHlI!
UII~
lnwmd~
Ifm JUil"NIW (lfilll(flllJ pmgrllJn thal wns
rwnnd. 'Illt,' highly /legliU vt! Rclorlll
~'ul,!llIl.'hml
cOllnnn' OUf'
IHllll'l!sNlons
(dIM'U/dll.'d below) 01. dl!iIU'f'iI~ III lIIilllil~wnWili pnu.:tw/,.t!, for II fWft,'lllllill t'fnP wlil!n' cllllpcnlllvc u\~lilln
had
tWCfHUl.!
MIWU l"'IIIl!,
The wkuHx Hie plnlWd Ul F"4Ul'C ~l IPIlI.Hht*" wllh Ihe OWl'll" uwm~t' ytchl lind CNfllnllll.'d )tIt,ltd
t:o\!ITICICI11 MH2 kg/hll), 'l1lc filtl.'d vulncN ollha '1(I\Hltllm um:k IIII.' IWlllal YI~~lds llvN tllL' fwnml l'}~{)
lu It)Hl) wry
well.
'Ill(,.! fl<Jxr
nllly II
QU<!6(fClIl ((1
pllrllillllnNw~r
"Ilk lh wIlY 1H1l11lfl! )'tufdli um
fltl
Inw.
'null
'I; U (,'I1I1lJ'lllIX llt.ll'SUO/l to whh:h
t'1Ul he uiven hei'e IHc\! Hllwrltlglnll & r'tWillef. I{)()', Chapler
.u!!U;'wt!!. or Imrvcl'IWd. IIn!H~ under hI/HI IIiIVl~ hCt'Ollw puhlldy Ilvallahlt! sIUt.'t!
nrc Ulvt'n in Tuhlu 4.
(ll.
Slillhlk" tll/lhe
I'JH2, 'J'1I4! unUollill diltu
ACTUA~
aoo
& ~ReDICTEO TeA
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~r:(j , , '.1
t I t 1 t ' t t f f t f"r
io~n
10~!}
r If'T 1'1
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1000
't'
~~1i;~,*,~,~'~II;
mill
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n
T't T , f
1fl m
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rr
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10J~
'J' IT '1 I' i t l 't"1 '1
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At'~Ut
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10
tl1\~r~
16 n wi do dlfJi'fPUCU (~43ktm In tOWn IHHwcou thl) lulUllU'~n \lud Ihl> plu~k~d Uf(l!\, MORt
pnbUcnUOHS UHQ UmpJmlSQ "t)hlt~kudU ('.~lIft//UtJ uti 1Illrvcs(cd {,rluJU/uw l ur~1\ mt.lWr Hum HmnlUfu"
(cluwgllllg or wut'luw) tlr~u. '1110 dlsUncUnnbolwccU IheBc 16, howcvur. ImpUtllUH, In guuurnl, NU,'kud
(JmrvcstUtJ) nr{.)n con tm J~aH Umn or urQlltcl' limn tho: nuHU(O nrunl but Is most Hkoly to be IcssdJlmtho
mnlurQ nrcn~~ CluJ' HlnUsUcuJ yf~ld~wllmlllt) lH bused on thQ IIRS\Hlll1t1nn HIIIJ JllJUtl,r~ fmms llf.Q lIlU'Vl,l~I.od, In
1()M2 nud I f)80. official 6\tHI8H~8 hl(!htd~d flgurus furJll;~ nrUilS, tflliN nddlthllHtl drun nUnw utlo to cnlculnlu
nn Jm'mH11tQ unlit us n rcstduuh tou~l .111'011 ,1. r.hl4!I(~d Urulh ~~ Ih!: nuw Jlrun. On this basIs, 1n 1082 n
tOlnt or 256 k hn wuuld hu clusscd liS "Jmmlllufu", tly H)8Q, mnst of this u(ua ahullfd havu joJnud lhu
plUf~kud awa. (3\I( HIU pluckud nnm only IUCfUnmJd by 10 k, hll! It "Iflher IOS k WUR HIlII "lmmmurl.l"."
'111u ImNlculinn til' ,huIII,) flUllnm Is Ihul (his (csldllIlJIs; JlU1 Hhul1Jy un hlUnnltlru IIron hut Includ('!lJ
1I1HlnthmLld IIml fwglL!Cll.!d III\UIlS uJ' lell liS wun. '11I\H CUlu!hIHiuf) cnnfornlH In nur rrortmnnl fluid ohHcrvnilnns
(in I()H1 t tlW~ 't)O lind I f)f) I}. Wu frmml muny mnllll'o hm U(.!lds In nHtnlu of HUVlUO fH:ghlCI. In ZhgJillIllt nnd
I\lllmI11nl\'lflC~S,
lillI'S IIlong
Iht!r(.l wen:
InrUI~ nfUlls
or WII on hllhdd\!s Wh!Jt'olh~lrl)WH or lUll hushUN forlned cnlllhnum~
conluurli, When! thm'u wen.: Ict'rlIl:cs, HIf,!NU Inu w,m) t,lmlliUlHllls nvcr tllNtUllCCS or son 10 J 1000
lmshuH In Ih~l rows gcmwully UPPiJurctl to hit HullnllUl, IImJ con»lsl\,:fI\ with n
cot\ccnlrntcd p~~rjml of plnullng. Huw!}vcr, Ihl.! culluml prll(!llcas wllilin (he fluldl'l vurlod ~ln.!lllly, so lIult Iht!
underlay Ol uniformity WIIS uvcl'lnld hy II patchwork 01 IdnullllrullIh Humo of whit~h wcre wl,lll UlnlnlnhllHI
while ullwrH wew iult!sh.!ll wllll \N~cdl\. Snnl!J plutH wum in prmhlClhm, S(lUlU hnd Iwur-Iwluht tHHdlOlh wlllh.'
mctfL\N.
~ll1C
age of
UI~I
OllHWi
hud rc!.'umly h!.!l!H JlflllWd.
V.f
t~mu:IUN'()n!;
WI) confJitltlu 1.llal lilt: 1illlllsllclJ , C()/l!ulllflOl'llry guwrnllwl\t policy, lIud uur neld ohscrvut!lllls fllIiul
It cnnslshHH ph:IUfC:
';
Uw \fury rllpillln~~rOIl1iO III Chllln'k hhl outp\IIl\nd uVlmll'.~! yl~~lds III the IOH()~ WIIS primarily dUI! In
•
II rUllld cxt111ll!linn In tun IInw during Ihu Cul/urlll JhlVulution rnlher Ihan tilt! Impu'*l ur tllt! reform ern;
nwrngu y'",ldH III {,lIlnn (.tt'U wry low und this sllunlHm tiltH not Unproved under Jlw household
(uliponslhilHy S.yslt!Ul UN clnluwd by IHUIH,! scholars [Muckurrns IIl1d Yorko I')()I. p.Hm,. HUlllcr, Inw
yields lite pUrllully duo t.o tim poor Illllintcunm:o nml ~'"rn.Hll
r~RpnHslhlllly HyslCm
~
[Bthtlrlngwn &
nCHl~t'l
of leU nr~nli undur tlw /lolilichoJd
1')9', Chnplt\J' (II,
I.ho C~hlllCIl(~ WI! Industry Is tJIlIIJrlllU 1\ <ju/llltnllvoly dllfcnHlI phmw 11l1.IN uXlrllunUnllry hiMoty. 'l'h",rc
Is 110 longer Iho cushlnll uf pUsl plllllllugli 10 rul)1 upon. 1~lIlhl!r, Ihe HI IlU II!lC II It'll I lind Utilhillllllll of
IJxlstlnJJ.lllnnllllgli HW going In Imvu In Iw IUlproved to Huslllin tlw /lust ,'!lW oj' growlh in tllI/flUl nnd
h)rHII.!l'
UXI'IOt'tH.
•
If UlII!lIW yields do nut iIlCI'CIISU HlgnlfJcllnlly, Chllln's owrnlllcvcl of II.!II prOdlH'lioli hUH rcUdlt!d II
plnl!.!IIU. TIIIJ 11UrftU'IIl11HCO of' Chllln'lj len illthlHtry sill' . ICJH'J uive c:rL'dl,lucc to IIl1s (~nrH.·llIliltm, In
11
lOH9, 1110. outlml of
"lccUncd tor
tli:H
th~
i1rst Umo sinco 1f)(i3 (Q.Xl1nf\lh how¢vcr, cnnlinuQ() to
hlCfOilNO). OUltmt SlIIbUiscd in 1991hmd c{mllllucd at uhout 540k ttlnS In1991nnd 1992.
lb~t)nrIN
ducllncd,tn 199U ngnhlln 1991 bmrCC(lVOrcd to the 190 k ton loval In 1902 (suol·1tglH'~l'I 1 & 2.),
VU. Nulhmnl nml hlhH'nnHmmllm))lcnthms
In recont yCi\t's n HlIml~r or orgnnlsnJions within nnu mHsidc Chinn hl\\'u mude highly optimisllc
m~dl\l UMcrm pro.lCtltlnns I'm' Chinn· s101\ production and oxports. til 1988 tho StHtu Council nnd in 1989 tlw
Inl1mmtilll Hcmwmic l>aily wore t;uggustillg highly sj'lO,mlllUvc output flgm'os 01' 900 k IIlld 1 million tons
b)' th\) turn t~r the century. Ruddy. in his annlysts or tho nln\lal ten sc~nnriol cxtrnJ~olntcd past tronds 10 haw
1.4 millions (5M k) lonl) by 200HHcddy 19(1). 'I1Hl8th }live Your l'lnt)
Is sliU ambitluus, calling for (lStI, 400 ano 2~O k lOlls of onlpul, dml\~slic UHO lind oXlmrls rospl.!cl!vcly for
1995. Itmw\,cf. IWlll)l'tUng tu 7.hllng, 1\ doyen llmong lh~ ncndcmics ot' I.ho Chlnuso len Industry, the output
largpt hns f~cunll~' hl!cn rt,!\'ls~ld dowllwnrdlo 61 ~ k lUns with 220 h tnns being uVllilnhlc lbr ex pori (Zhang
19<-)2). Zhang's uutpul estilllate Ibr the end or tIle l)th Plan rWI'imllll 2000 is 700 k tonl'l with exports of 2~()
ChitlCS~1 OUlput (uXpmls) rcn~~hlng
h IOll~.
DomcslH.' cOllsurnplltlH 0111:11 ill China gn!w at over
1~1l
than
~q;
III
ahout 11 'if lwr IUUHlf11. ZlliIng'h
Uguru more tllIllI suslilincd
(n
t'tlnllllUClI
owr Ihl.! whole panml It)()5 .. SS. Over the
imply Ihlll this filII! will slow down to
J'lel' annum. Tins III t\l1'I11111plics Ihilt the HWUIllC cluxtld.t>' 0/ duumutl will e1ml) well below 1
>'cafs \'J7H·XN it grew
I~,'i'
t)jfYr,
raptd
'"~~nHlsc~ In
OWl'
hgUI'Cli
the hm )'Cilrs 10 1981'5)' We cOl\shlcr thIs to he unlikely giV~I.l Ihe
Incomus III ('Imlil and Ihe filL'1 that P(.'f cupita dtllHcMlc cOllsumpllnn lags well
hehlnd the lI:v!.'l,,, uf olhl.'l' milJor producing cmlntrH:s i\l1d olher ChilwSQ couuHunlllcs. In Chhlih lea is sllll
It
luxury pl'lxhlt'! both In hll'H\S of
th~ sill! 01
thl) II\I.'OUlC cloll!icity or demand I\ml in the S\.lIlSU lhlll it is
pnl'culX!}'Olld the rClld\ of the awm~e C11I1CIl, Pill'IH:~ltnrly
Han ChlllUhC pCllsnnls tn nnn·l)t(llluclnp; ilrCilS
The IIkt-'; (olllinul:d lIlCH'iI'il' 11\ dPIlWSIl\.' thmlilllli (l1It1 our h1lllisllCdl illllllyslS or len >'i!.-Ids sug!!,,':,1
Ihill tlw len hlt!Ul;try III Chlilil Iii lacm!! i\ lIlill!!! \:nsls: It ts
[or
rUIUl'~
III~lIlly Ulllikl!l)'
111111 supplh's will he IIble In \.'uh.'r
'rend., in dnm\,'lilh: l'ollslImplilln Hnd export IlIllhiUnl\s. (liven Iho rapid (.'Xplll\~l(ln 01
Illlcl'nulh ..
uxpon}i, we t'onSlll~r that lli", Ml'uctuml U'lIllsfOl'malhm cxpcl'icrwcd h)' Ih!.! II.'it induslr>' III Tmwnn dlll'ill{! Ih\.'
I ()H()~ \l.llll'.lart 10 ll\:(.'ur nn the ttllllllllllld h~I'ur~ the mIn of Ihe (~clllur)' Ihlh~nll~lon & I:orslcr I ()U21· I'he
ImpUcnllon Is that Clulln will not he posing the 1111'1.'11110
Ih\'~
'world wa market lhlll nppcnn.!d It) he t1w
Ci\S,,'
ill the hogilUlillg ur this dUl.'nde.
lI'ollh:illly. out' r~~llru~slnn r~slllls suggest Ihlll (here.!!i Indeed iI IMsil: t'1l11slsICllC), in Chillil IS Ilnliollill
lea stnllMics.
lJnwt~vl~r.
our results will IlnlIwlp the Wtll'ld Bunk 01' illl>'hudy else with forwllrd proJCCliOlt li
purllculilrly 101' the InturnllUOllill markel.
F!r~l, hUClluso lilt!
'cut/sc· 01 PitS I output intTCIlSCS hilS comr1cII,,'d
Us tmpul.lllnd It will bu tlil'ncult In prcdlcllh,· Impllct of future chnngch In pollc>', To rccstnhlish Iho olltput
growth of' Ihe ImlmMy mil)' rcquiro suhSlillltilll (l.mrgnllislllioll or [hu multiple hllfClIllt'rlK'ics
12
f:\lm~lItly
rcsp{)J)glbh.> forrunnlng thll hldustty! Sl!cot1dl~} bccnu~Q th~ commOgUYl)1' r(lnl lnturcSI 1.0 thu 11l\Crnntiol1l\l
tOil uultkcllsblnck t~n, t111ls cur(cntl~ uUlkcsnp less. UUUlhnlf of Chlnt\tR Icn exports but lh(! potential
nlwnys oxist!; fot switching tlllUlUfl)Clutlug between green lind, bhlC,k ton ft'om 11 Biven output, of grat.m hmf.lI
Some nf ChlntllS m~Uor ton pmduclng proVhlCQS have madc such switches in fho recent 1.11\SII
'):110 struggle to rcinstntc lho Chinese tcnhtdusttYI both domQstlouH>' tlllt! lntcmnUmH\llYt to Us runner
glory hns heen n length)' llnd porslstcnt mlP._t\llhm~uh Chinn Is now the wo(ltPS HocnmJ lIu'gunt lon o,~pmll,1t
behind ImUn. Us Ilositi(m nmy weU rnll back to thlnlplnf:o bchlml Kunynhy 1995 tWmJd Dllnk 1990. fl.
76]. 11)c capacity of China to Increase yIQhh~, rnisu ompUl nuu cntch up with tho. rost or thu world shuuld
not be ullduroslimalcd. Howeverl ills must Ukely uun tho. domestic murkc{ wm ralllin lin evur 'lnct'cnslng
~rorlortl{)n or China·1) output.
NO'l'l~S
1. The Icum' 'k' folluwing Ht\umhur !tllmns!i!m. n thoUSllUd, 'lin' (It' 'hu' rolc!'!; to hCClnl'CH. 'TUIiSI nfC· mUlri,:
'nm)c~,
2. The l(lllowing equations nr~ fur till: pcrlndl')()llu l(IRC) A" Implied h~ Iho R2s, Ilip coefficients nrc highly
sigmlkmll,
(J)
(II)
Out.put
= ·794{)f) + 17J48t
(t c
RJ ;;, O.C)~
19M/HI)
t.tl Output ~ 4,2154 + O.07SH
R: ~ 0.90
The base fur thl.! pnljccUnus in lhe lex\ is thG S~OI()OO tons of output in 1(jl)(), Reddy
of growth ulllllc period ltJ74·8R nnd pmJI.!(.·I~ OUlput of l.4l4,(){)() lIH1s In 2001 AD.
3. Thlh part of Shannxi is nhotH the same Inllllluu nlrl Kllhul.
C)'lll'US,
<1 ()CJ J) (.)litlmiU(lS rates
Algie"" Wnshlngtnn
n.e'
l
Snn
l'runchllu Inlllc tlol'lhcl'H hClIlisph\;!fC or CUllhcl1'tI. Cnpl! ')'own ur nUCIH)!' Aires In the smith. It has nil unllulIl
Ilvcmttc lcmrwrnl.urc or 15'1('. 1495 .. linn hO\ll'lot m I\unshinc nnd n 1'11111f1tll of hclwCCIl ROO· 100{) HIm.
1~IUlllitlll 3. Tn "void a siligultu'
mUlrix, tlt lCII!il one rlrl)pOl'llnnal vllriable Ims lu he olUittPd IIlld thih IS "uhsumcd into the IIHcrcupl term. tn
1m.:" (111)' the illl/nature f\tor(lI'liun mm\,! liP of the orclt uf (; !llUl 1 )'CfII'S ngo is Included In Ihe flnnl
C);Utnatitl1' t!'llllitioll. Tea plants y()utl~ur lh~1Il61illlkc lUI jn~ignmcmll (slllllsticn\) \,'{mtrlhulinll to uvcmllylcld
4. TlIu .. nnly two tllthc rltllcnUnllJight prurnrliOlmJ vm'inhlcs lUt' \Hllld in
or
5. If J',mm!turc nrCI\'~ urc hnrvQs!cd. Ihe plu~:kL!d nnom cnn :> the lIulturc men. II registered :lfCIIS of h.!U ure
lint being hlll'VClIlcd, theu the plucked Itf\!!\ will h~ ~ thnn thu mnlllfC nrcil This is \YJlh.mllll C"hhlll.
6. There WOUld, of courso. Mill h" !lome illlIlIIllllrc pluHllngs from IhulI\! flew IItlJt\S plnilled In the Imcfvul
This would nprl~ purtkulnrly to YUllnulI pwvillcu whh:h hns Iwen expanding I.ts IIren OWl' tho whole pel'iod
7. Our I.Hillmulo of the income ChlRliclty (If lIcIIlIIUtI fur I.CII In Chlllll is 1.17 for till' period 1972 In 19HR
A parullcl (!sllnmle "or TuiwUIl Is well uver 1.5 mthurlnplon nud Forster 191)2, p. ~t to).
H. This 'swlt~hlilg' bQlwccu I1ml) product. VIII'hHh,1N Is well rC~(lglllscd, Fur CXlllllpicl soc UUIl ctlll, II)e) I. l'
24. The pussihlliUcs rur this huw bc~m mlllh" !'.w~!Il mot'C I1cxlhlc hy Ihe devulopment HI Chilln nf \CChliologlc"
10 matlUfilCtllJC black ICtt frum BUlle grecn leu (Ouo I'l ttl Jl)Q l),
13
,\klyntl1tl , 'r, IlUU TdYcdi,)l,K. 0987u). A New O/fllml rca Madel: $lu!clfl"(1fWn, BstimmUm (ltul
~\'lmulm(()fI,WorldUfmk Smff Commodity Workiug PIlVUt8 No, 17 ~ tWu,qlHnguHlI J),C" ~nlo
World lluuk),
Akb'Utlln, T. itnd ~l'tiv~di, 1).lt \1981b), 'VintagQPmduction ApptunrJh to lllJfcnnlnl Crop Supply; All
.Applicnlion (0 Tea In MnJot l)rmluclnsCoutl1rJcs'.l(mrnal (if Itc{wolllt!lrics. NUl 36.1lJ). l33~ 161Oui f{tltl)'UtUl, Chen X'lnuxnnu und Jlans Yongwcn (1 (91), ~Svndm Pwgnumno und ChitU;IRO 'fell
Prndm~Uun .. A Cnsc OfUl~ !"rogrnmrlH,li'l\ PrqJl,lC( lmlllcmct\tctJ by 'I'(~u HIJRilnrchJUNtilutC. of
CAAS·. Pro"('('tNtiRS (ift/I(! Jmcrttr1limwl M(lcltng()fI 1f!(l ltl/ormcUion, Cl)nngt.htllh truu HUNCMCh
Jnstlhll~. Chlm~s~ AcmJclHY uf AgtlcullUrlil Scium:mn. Pp. ~1 ..4.
(~hcn ChUiHl, OV84)••A C{Wfpt(~/l('nstWl nlsltJ~' oJ lite 1t(/ Imlusfl'.v (nclJinl~. "t;r;,m/tnrnIPubUshcr!»
Un Chjnu~c.).
nlheringlont Jl M (H)87). ·Oultl<!lincs for hio.ccnnmlUc modelling of teu productlun nnd proccsNm~
in Chinn lind (~MohJjhlmlg effectivu rCMHlrdl producer Huison·, (Hcport. prcrlHrctl I'or th~ pAO.
Rome). Auyust. Pp 72
l"U\lJrtfllllon, IJ M" (1 t)9{)),' An
h;l)noml~ iUMIYSlk HI
Tr(Ij'lHIlI AJ/ru ntum', Vul (J7 NnJ
Jul~,
n pI Mit
Jt 24"i .. 25(t
~I~IISHY
(LOllliorl,
expcnnwnt 1m tea in China,'
Uuncl'wm'th S!,!hmtHk)
htlll,mU!!loll. {) M. lind hltMcr. f{" (PJH'h "nlc cumplcx ~:i1~U of Ihu t'hlnctlc hm lmlustry't fl'twd
Rcwt.l1tll ItWtlutt' SlUr/it'S, Vol.
lL~llUld J;nrMt!f.
hthctmglOu,
\Vflrld
/)(In'luI'UlcfU
"thl!ttnplnn. IJ M IIml
al. Nu
" p. 2()fi " ~()8.
It (I ()02J. j'!1w Strulimrnl Trnnsfnrrnntmu ()f Tmwlln1b TClIlndusU'>t',
tVol. 20 No. '. Mun:ll. ptt 401...:f21 •.
hmih~t.
K (l()CJ.~. ,urtlll.'llrllHltO, (Jtc'ell (/oltl: 11", Po/lllrdl hcollOlm
{~f Chilla'l
/lo,\I . /tJ!lfJ 1'('(1 Im/wll'\' Ohmp ({urJl!. O"tord Hnlwrsny Jl'W-l!<I)
f·0i8Icr. It
(1')1)1).
'CIulla's
'h~il
Will
t
(I\tlelallJt
l
,
ChHltN'iC h:nnum~
Rcsciln.:h Unit, Unlvcfsuy uf
I\dclilldcJ. \\orkUl,e Pafwr' 91ft JUUt1.
lor\ter. K nnd hllifll'tllU m. 11. M (J{)t}J L 'ChHHltk lJynuullc Tcn Industry'. Pror'(.I(1(ltm~s (~f Ille
IntN/lclflMWI Srmp'J, 111111 {)t1 i "(1 SrwtIC.t tSIUluokll. Japau. ()rl!!mu~ms ('OI1IUItlWc or ISTS J. Pl1
S.24·2H.
(iuo. W F., SuklHih K. Yagl. A, 11m. K, nlld I.mh S,l Cll.)fJl), '1\ New Venture h. Pn!plln! ClnW.lSl'
3
,
Blu\.k 'r I.lil fmm Slnlc Cir!.!cn 'ft'll.' Pro( (,t'llings (If (IU' {tUN'I1II1W/hll S\"i11/1tIsml1l on Tt'11 Srwlftc*,
(ShillU)~;U. ,hlP/HI. ()rpmllIiUl~
CunUUlllc(.! ul ISTSJ. 11(1 42·,4(t
Hu Ping, (I QSO). \A. htl~r uUrmJuclinn to Ihu kurwy of leu fH~Jds til Xh~uiaHg PruVUI(:C. Cirulli 1'('tl. Nu
pp J 8,,1 \J, On t'htncso).
flu Piug. (J OW!). •A now fYr~ of s'~lciIlUtll cluHnwtlmtlNchold .. tile /suuiI.>' slutL! farm'. Chitttl n/rl, nu.
(i.
14
· Uthctlnuton &.rm'sfCr
5. (In Chineso),
t.lu Sulnlnn .f!;, \VuQunmitl <c,lsJ. (WS6), Tim Nm/(Jllfll Hcmwmy (luring IIU! "Culluml RcwJlulUm;'
(19M • 1916). uructbm: HcHotlwlnng P~0111Ct8 VilbUsh~rSJ (in ChillU8~)
Ml\ckcrrnlh C. nmlYmko. A. (1991). nro Cmllllriligo Ilmullumk: 0/ ClIl1WIII/Wl'tIf)' CIIi,m (Cllmbridl~o.
Cnmbridg~ UniVtH'NH>' ProNS).
Qu Vuxmg. 099 J). 'TI:u Ptudu~Uun HsUnmtcs" ~r(ltt Imillst,.)! i/allftwl. Vol. l3, Nu. 3t 1'1) 6.9.0u
Chin~NU},
l{cdd)r, V. N, (1 9(} H:CHnha! TCIl SccfUlflm 2nn I Air. PrO( eelUflHs a/II/I! ItUtn'lut/(mwl Mcmlll}l 1m n'lI
In(omtdtllm. HIIHlIVIH1\Jt Teo HC~~Hu'chJns"hHOt CUI/Wile AlJmlumy nf Agricultural SClfmCl!8}. P,}.
lo.'\·(}l)
R\~MM.rdl
nUke. CCP Hlmim~' IlruV\uClill
C,'nnuulttcc ilml Sh,mnxl Bureau or SHIUstiCli (l9H6). 1'ltt'
A.lMtr\ lit Shdd/H,'" nJwun'J. t Xwn. SI."HUI~l
ShlJU
K~th um)
\Vau!:! Lmmlj! (tuN1,.
Iti~UnMtCfi
Un.! 7th Hh' YC.lf 11lan • Cltmd 'tnt. un
Pcrlum. U W (1~U,f}J
Ttn JVrn,I
letl
~,
un Chml,lsc).
Agllrtlll1lr~·lllJt;ll't'l.ll'ltI('tIl lIZ
fltwa13t18.JrJn8 t f"htcilllu. Aithne PrcsIi).
Tca f<csl'art'll
'leu Rl.'kt'ilfCh InMJtuh.' u1 CAAS). un Chun:sc)
\Vurld Hunk (l'JHfH Pt'IH' prn~prfh {at md/m IU'lman
tW.lslmljllUiL 1> C, WUtlll
n,lld~
lU\IUuttfl Ull t"hIHCSlH
lustHUII.' of Ctmh'sc A 'ild~m>' ul Anfl.:ultural Sl.·t~m~\!s (I(JH()). Tt'fl Culture' (II C~lImfl
tSlMl1Jilllllt.
World
lfuhIIShcfs).
nl ("hllla'x tCilprmhumml und sale,Ii Jnt lim llcrlnd ul
1(,ISS· l')t}1 fV\lltUU" '!I~UC"'l (I'Janplhuu,
I(t,!~"im.h
Pt~nJlh!1\
nJllwJl1dtlit',\,
Rcpnn H14/Hl\ V()IUlH\~
n
BanJo
t I'J'm} "lin' l'fOt/U'( 1,\ .1M lIIelliIf' J1Nt1lll1 \ i '11I1WWtbIllW, Hcpntl H14190 VuluUlc JI
i W..,llIlllltuU.
nC,
Wurld Hunl.)
15