Aon Benfield
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Current Watches and Warnings
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Puerto Rico; Vieques; Culebra; Dominican Republic; Haiti;
Southeastern Bahamas; Turks and Caicos Islands; Central Bahamas
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Northwestern Bahamas; the Cuban Provinces of Ciego de Avila,
Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo
Current Details from the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
COORDINATES: 17.7° north, 69.4° west (previous location: 16.4° north, 63.3° west)
LOCATION: 65 miles (105 kilometers) south-southeast of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
MOVEMENT: west-northwest at 18 mph (30 kph) (previous: west at 16 mph (26 kph))
WINDS: 50 mph (85 kph) with gusts to 65 mph (105 kph) (previous: 50 mph (85 kph))
RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS: 150 miles (240 kilometers)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1008 millibars (previous: 1006 millibars)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE RANKING*: Tropical Storm
24-HOUR LANDFALL POTENTIAL: HIGH (Dominican Republic)
24-HOUR SIGNIFICANT INSURED LOSS POTENTIAL: LOW
Latest Satellite Picture
Source: NOAA
Risk. Reinsurance. Human Resources.
Aon Benfield
Analy tics | Impact Forecasting
Discussion
Tropical Storm Erika, located approximately 65 miles (105 kilometers) south-southeast of Santo Domingo,
Dominican Republic, is currently tracking west-northwest at 18 mph (30 kph). Morning visible imagery
shows that the broad low-level center of Erika is exposed to the west of the main convective area due to
the effects of moderate westerly vertical wind shear. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has
reported a large area of 45 to 50 mph (75 to 85 kph) surface wind estimates and flight-level winds as high
as 65 mph (105 kph), so the NHC has maintained the initial intensity at 50 mph (85 kph).
Now that a center of circulation is somewhat easier to locate, there is greater confidence that the motion
is towards the west-northwest. This general motion is expected for the next 48 hours or so as Erika
moves around the southwestern periphery of the steering ridge of high pressure. After that time, a
northwestward and northward turn – and a decrease in forward speed – is forecast as Erika moves
between the ridge and a mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico. The forecast model track
guidance continues to show some spread based on the forecast strength of Erika. The models with a
stronger cyclone (such as the GFDL and GFS) show a faster northward turn and are on the eastern side
of the guidance envelope. On the other hand, the ECMWF forecasts a weaker storm and lies on the left
side of the envelope. An extra complication is that passage over Hispaniola is likely to disrupt the
circulation, with the possibility that the center could reform somewhere northwest or west of the island.
Overall, the guidance envelope has shifted a little to the west since the previous advisory, and the new
NHC forecast track shows a similar adjustment through 96 hours. The model guidance is also showing a
faster forward speed than six hours ago, so the new track is also a little faster than the previous track.
Westerly to southwesterly vertical wind shear is forecast to continue or increase during the next 12 to 24
hours. This, combined with land interaction, suggests that the cyclone should weaken, and there is a
chance the system could degenerate to a tropical wave while crossing Hispaniola. Assuming the cyclone
survives, the shear should decrease a bit after 36 hours, which could allow some strengthening up to the
time of possible landfall on the Florida Peninsula. The new NHC intensity forecast is an update of the
previous forecast, and there remains low confidence.
Tropical storm conditions affecting Puerto Rico will continue for the next several hours before subsiding
later today. Tropical storm conditions are currently spreading across portions of the Dominican Republic.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread across Haiti today, the Turks and Caicos Islands and
the southeastern Bahamas later today and tonight, and the central Bahamas on Saturday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the northwestern Bahamas by Saturday night.
Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches – with maximum amounts of 10
inches – possible across portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and
the southeastern and central Bahamas through Saturday. An additional 1 to 2 inches is expected for
Puerto Rico. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
As a recap, Erika has already left devastating impacts across parts of the Caribbean. The storm dropped
an incredible 12.64 inches (321.1 millimeters) in just 12 hours on Thursday at the Canefield Airport near
Roseau, Dominica and spawned major flash flooding across the island. At least 25 people have been
confirmed dead and many others remain missing. Periods of heavy rains also impacted parched Puerto
Rico, but the island did not receive nearly as much rain as initially anticipated.
Much of the Caribbean has experienced severe drought conditions due to a lack of rainfall this year.
Some experts attribute the lack of precipitation as a result of El Niño.
Cat Alert: Tropical Storm Erika
2
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Analy tics | Impact Forecasting
National Hurricane Center Forecast
Cat Alert: Tropical Storm Erika
3
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National Hurricane Center: Wind Speed Probabilities
Tropical Storm-Force Wind Probabilities (≥40 mph (65 kph))
Cat Alert: Tropical Storm Erika
4
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Analy tics | Impact Forecasting
Wind Probabilities (≥60 mph (95 kph))
Cat Alert: Tropical Storm Erika
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Analy tics | Impact Forecasting
Hurricane-Force Wind Probabilities (≥75 mph (120 kph))
Cat Alert: Tropical Storm Erika
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Analy tics | Impact Forecasting
Weather Prediction Center: Rainfall Potential
Cat Alert: Tropical Storm Erika
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Analy tics | Impact Forecasting
Current ‘Spaghetti’ Model Output Data
Source: NHC
Additional Information and Update Schedule
Wind intensity forecasts and forecast track information can be found via the National Hurricane Center at
www.nhc.noaa.gov
NEXT CAT ALERT: Saturday morning after 10:00 AM Central Time (15:00 UTC).
Cat Alert: Tropical Storm Erika
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Aon Benfield
Analy tics | Impact Forecasting
*Tropical Cyclone Intensity Classifications for Global Basins
WIND SPEED
1
KTS
1
MPH
BASINS AND MONITORING BUREAU
1
KPH
30
35
55
35
40
65
40
45
75
45
50
85
50
60
95
55
65
100
60
70
110
65
75
120
70
80
130
75
85
140
80
90
150
85
100
160
90
105
170
95
110
175
100
115
185
105
120
195
110
125
205
115
130
210
120
140
220
125
145
230
130
150
240
135
155
250
140
160
260
>140
>160
>260
Cat Alert: Tropical Storm Erika
NE
Pacific,
Atlantic
NW
Pacific
NW
Pacific
SW
Pacific
Australia
SW
Indian
North
Indian
National
Hurricane
Center (NHC)
Joint Typhoon
W arning
Center (JTWC)
Japan
Meteorological
Agency (JMA)
Fiji
Meteorological
Service (FMS)
Bureau Of
Meteorology
(BOM)
Meteo-France
(MF)
India
Meteorological
Department
(IMD)
Tropical
Depression
Tropical
Depression
Tropical
Depression
Tropical
Depression
Tropical
Low
Tropical
Depression
Deep
Depression
Tropical
Storm
Cat. 1
Tropical
Cyclone
Cat. 1
Tropical
Cyclone
Moderate
Tropical
Storm
Cyclonic
Storm
Severe
Tropical
Storm
Cat. 2
Tropical
Cyclone
Cat. 2
Tropical
Cyclone
Severe
Tropical
Storm
Severe
Cyclonic
Storm
Cat. 3
Severe
Tropical
Cyclone
Cat. 3
Severe
Tropical
Cyclone
Tropical
Cyclone
Tropical
Storm
Tropical
Storm
Cat. 1
Hurricane
Very
Severe
Cyclonic
Storm
Cat. 2
Hurricane
Typhoon
Cat. 3
Major
Hurricane
Cat. 4
Severe
Tropical
Cyclone
Cat. 5
Severe
Tropical
Cyclone
Cat. 5
Severe
Tropical
Cyclone
Typhoon
Cat. 4
Major
Hurricane
Cat. 5
Major
Hurricane
Cat. 4
Severe
Tropical
Cyclone
Super
Typhoon
Intense
Tropical
Cyclone
Very
Intense
Tropical
Cyclone
Super
Cyclonic
Storm
9
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Analy tics | Impact Forecasting
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Cat Alert: Tropical Storm Erika
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