Rational denial of
undeniable climate change:
Science in an era of ‘post-truth’ politics
Stephan Lewandowsky
School of Experimental Psychology and Cabot Institute
University of Western Australia
Twitter: @STWorg
www.shapingtomorrowsworld.org
Gothenburg, May, 2017
“Post-Fact” World—“Post-Truth” Politics
“post-truth”
Number of media hits
“post-fact”
“post-truth”
Word of the year 2016
(Oxford Dictionaries)
U.S. Presidential Candidates
Politifact score card of election campaign
Do Facts Matter?
(Swire, Berinsky, Lewandowsky, & Ecker, 2017)
• Present online
sample
workers)
with
Donald
Trump (MTurk
said that vaccines
cause
autism
(MISINFORMATION)
Trump statements
– true or false
Donald Trump said that the US spent $2
– attributed to
Trump
or war
unattributed
trillion
on the
in Iraq
(FACT)
– obtain belief
ratings
Do Facts Matter?
(Swire, Berinsky, Lewandowsky, & Ecker, 2017)
• Present online
sample
workers)
with
Donald
Trump (MTurk
said that vaccines
cause
autism
(MISINFORMATION)
Trump statements
– true or false
Donald Trump said that the US spent $2
– attributed to
Trump
or war
unattributed
trillion
on the
in Iraq
(FACT)
– obtain belief
ratings
• Rebut (affirm) false (true) statements
– ask for belief ratings immediately or week later
Belief Ratings (Swire et al., 2017)
Voting Intentions (Swire et al., 2017)
Voting Intentions (Swire et al., 2016)
Degree of belief change after
correction of misinformation did
not correlate with change in
voting intentions
Facts Don’t Matter:
Now What?
• Climate change was the crucible of the
‘post-truth’ world
The Problem
The Problem
• The climate is changing.
• Humans are causing it.
• It’s a problem.
97.1%
97.5%
agreement
in climate
literature
agreement
among climate
scientists
Another Problem
“With all the hysteria,
Oklahomaall
Statethe
Capitol fear,
all the phony science, could it be
that manmade global warming is
the greatest hoax ever perpetrated
on the American people?
I believe it is.”
—U.S. Senator James Inhofe
Congressional Record, 2003
Rejection of (Climate) Science
Skepticism
Tools
Denial
“Supply”
“Demand”
Effects
Psychological
predictors
Rejection of (Climate) Science
Skepticism
Tools
Denial
“Supply”
“Demand”
Effects
Psychological
predictors
Benefits of Skepticism
(Lewandowsky et al., 2005, 2009)
• People who were skeptical about official
motives for the Iraq War
– disbelieved things they knew to be false
– believed accurate information
• People who were not skeptical
– believed in things they knew to be false
Denial is not Skepticism:
AIDS and South Africa
• President Mbeki’s government (1999-2008)
rejected Western medicine as “racist”
• Rejected offers of antiretroviral drugs
• Preferred to treat AIDS with garlic and
beetroot instead
Denial is not Skepticism:
AIDS and South Africa
Rejection of (Climate) Science
Skepticism
Tools
Denial
“Supply”
“Demand”
Effects
Psychological
predictors
Denial vs. Skepticism:
The Triage
• “… official climate models got their predictions
so hopelessly wrong …. [in 2007] none of them
predicted a temporary fall in global
temperatures of 0.7 degrees, equal to their
entire net rise in the 20th century…”
Christopher Booker, 22 October 2016
“fall of 0.7 degrees”
0.7C
January 2007 – January 2008
Implications of Cherry-Picking
•
•
•
•
By design, it never ceases
When pineapples grow in Alaska ….
…. and Miami is just a distant memory ….
…. there will still be opportunities for cherrypicking
Adjudication?
• “… manmade global warming is the greatest
hoax ever perpetrated on the American
people” (U.S. Senator Inhofe)
• Climate scientists say otherwise
• Public highly polarized
20% of Representative U.S. sample:
Climate change “… is a hoax perpetrated by corrupt scientists who
wish to spend more taxpayer money ...”
(Lewandowsky et al., 2013, PLOS ONE)
Blind Test With
Economists and Statisticians
• 6 different scenarios involving various climate
indicators
– contrarian statements sampled from media and
online sources
– Google search reveals high prevalence on
contrarian blogs
– mainstream scientific statements checked by
climate experts
Sample Trial
Combine items into
correctness score
Statisticians
Misleading contrarian
interpretations reduce
people’s acceptance of
climate science
(Ranney & Clark, 2016;
McCright et al., 2016)
Denial vs. Skepticism:
The Triage
Conspiratorial Denial of Science is
Pervasive
• [xxxxxxx research is] “a vertically integrated,
highly concentrated, oligopolistic cartel” that
“manufactures alleged evidence.”
• “billions of dollars of public and private capital
have been expended on the xxxxxxxxxx
industry in the last 20 years.”
–
Conspiratorial Denial of Science is
Pervasive
• [Medical research is] “a vertically integrated,
highly concentrated, oligopolistic cartel” that
“manufactures alleged evidence.”
• “billions of dollars of public and private capital
have been expended on the anti-smoking
industry in the last 20 years.”
– internal memo of the tobacco industry (1983)
Scientific Facts or Conspiracies
• HIV causes AIDS
• Tobacco smoke
causes lung cancer
• Greenhouse gases
cause climate
change
• Western medicine is
racist
• Medical research is
an oligopolistic cartel
• Global warming is a
hoax
Conspiratorial Thinking and
Rejection of Science
•
•
•
•
•
Vaccinations
Smoking and lung cancer
HIV and AIDS
Genetically modified foods
Climate
-.54
-.55
-.55
-.13
-.20 to -.57
Lewandowsky et al. (2013) PLOS ONE; Lewandowsky et al. (2013) Psychological Science
Rejection of (Climate) Science
Skepticism
Tools
Denial
“Supply”
“Demand”
Effects
Psychological
predictors
Why do People “Buy” Organized Denial?
Worldview (“Ideology”)
• People’s basic beliefs about how society
should be structured and how goods should
be distributed.
• Nuanced concept
– cultural cognition (e.g., Kahan, 2012)
– here focus on people’s view of the free market
(Heath & Gifford, 2006)
Climate
2
1
0
-1
-2
-2
-1
0
1
Free Market
2
Worldview (“Ideology”) and Science
• Worldview trumps other variables
• Among Republicans in U.S., acceptance
of science decreases with increasing
education.
– 31% without tertiary education.
– 19% with college degree.
– reverse (52 vs. 75%) for Democrats.
Worldview (“Ideology”) and Science
Hamilton
(2011)
More information can make things worse
More education can make things worse
Rejection of (Climate) Science
Skepticism
Tools
Denial
“Supply”
“Demand”
Effects
Psychological
predictors
Does it Matter?
Broader Context
• …activists with ties to the Tea Party … brand …
preserving open space as … a United Nationsled conspiracy to deny property rights… They
are showing up at planning meetings to
denounce bike lanes … and smart meters...
— New York Times 3 February 2012
Broader Fallout of Conspiracism
Now What?
• Denial is not “irrational” but a highly effective
political operation
• How to counter?
– suspicion and inoculation
– communicate scientific consensus
– focus on solutions
Suspicion and Inoculation
• Research on misinformation: Correction
effective if people are:
– skeptical of a source
– suspicious of motives
– people who doubted that Iraq War was over WMD
processed information more accurately
(Lewandowsky et al., 2005, 2009)
• Important to analyze denial and publicize their
techniques
Inoculation
(Cook, Lewandowsky, & Ecker, 2017)
97.1%
agreement
in climate
literature
97.5%
Inoculation
messages
agreement
neutralized
among
climate effects
scientists
of ‘false balance’
Take-home Message?
Take-home Message?
• 13 months after founding a new party from
scratch …
• … a strongly pro-EU and pro-climate candidate,
• … who made ‘fake news’ a campaign issue and
tackled them head on,
• … and who ran against a person riling against
‘globalist elites’,
Rational and democratic
• … was elected President
of France
by a 2-to-1
political
leadership
can be
margin
effective and electable