Demographics are Destiny: How Demographic Trends are Reshaping Florida and the United States Dr. Tim Chapin ([email protected]) Interim Dean, College of Social Science and Public Policy Professor, Department of Urban & Regional Planning Florida State University APA Florida – Emerging Topics Webinar August 15, 2016 The Big Points for Today • There are ongoing, massive demographic changes shaping the state of Florida and nation that require attention from the planning community, policymakers, and elected officials. The Florida Growth Machine Keeps Going The Silver Tsunami (aka “Grey Wave”) The Continued Browning of Florida Household Size/Mix Changes • Demographics are Destiny! There is no way to legislate or otherwise short circuit these changes through state and local public policy. Historic US Population Growth Projected US Population Growth 450,000,000 The US is expected to hit 400 million residents sometime around 2050. 425,000,000 400,000,000 Projected growth due to intl migration 375,000,000 350,000,000 Projected growth due to natural increase 325,000,000 2010 Population ~308 million 300,000,000 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 Florida’s Growth Trajectory Florida's Historic Population, 1830-2010 20,000,000 Almost 19 million 18,000,000 16,000,000 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 Almost 3 million 4,000,000 Just over 500,000 2,000,000 Roughly 90,000 2010 2000 1990 1980 1970 1960 1950 1940 1930 1920 1910 1900 1890 1880 1870 1860 1850 1840 1830 - Natural Increase vs. Migration in FL Source: Florida Legislature Office of Economic and Demographic Research Decadal Population Growth by State 1980-2010 The Great Recession Slowed Growth in Florida… Temporarily FL Population Composition Pop Quiz 1) By 2010, how big was Florida’s elderly population (aged 65+)? 2) In 2010, what percentage of Florida’s residents were aged 65+? 3) What percentage of Florida’s residents are Foreign Born? 4) What percentage of Florida’s residents do not speak English at home? FL Population Composition Pop Quiz 1) By 2010, how big was Florida’s elderly population? 3.45 million 2) In 2010, what percentage of Florida’s residents were aged 65+? 18.2% 3) What percentage of Florida’s residents were Foreign Born in 2010? 19.3% 4) What percentage of Florida’s residents did not speak English at home in 2010? 27.3% The Silver Tsunami: Inverting the Population Pyramid? From This… To This? US Births by Year The Silver Tsunami is Expansive The Silver Tsunami is Expansive Population Pyramids • One way of looking at the composition of a population is through Population Pyramids. • Population pyramids show the composition of a population by age and sex, represented by the percent of the total population in each age-sex cohort). • These pyramids typically show the following: --Males on left side : Females on the right side --Age groups as individual cohorts going from youngest on the bottom to oldest on the top Visualizing Population Changes U.S. Population Pyramids 1900, 1950, 2000 Source: US Census International Database Source: US Census International Database Source: US Census International Database Florida Population Pyramid, 1970 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 Baby Boom 0-4 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Males 2.0% Females 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% Florida Population Pyramid, 1990 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 Baby Boom 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Males 2.0% Females 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% Florida Population Pyramid, 2010 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 Baby Boom 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Males 2.0% Females 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% Let’s Play a Game! Name that County: Some of Florida’s More Interesting County Population Pyramids Types of Florida Counties: (Sub)Urban County Balance (Hillsborough County) 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 Age Cohorts 60-64 55-59 Females Key Attributes • Age Balance • Gender Balance • Looks More Like the US Pyramid Males 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2% Percent Population 4% 6% 8% 10% Source: 2010 Census SF1, Table P12 (Sub)Urban County Balance: Polk County 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 Age Cohorts 60-64 55-59 Females Key Attributes • Age Balance • Gender Balance • Looks More Like the US Pyramid Males 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2% Percent Population 4% 6% 8% 10% Source: 2010 Census SF1, Table P12 Types of Florida Counties: College Towns (Leon County) 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 Age Cohorts 60-64 55-59 Female Key Attributes • College Kids Galore! • Fewer Retirees • Solid Distribution, otherwise Male 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2% Percent Population 4% 6% 8% 10% Source: 2010 Census SF1, Table P12 Types of Florida Counties: Classic “Rural” Counties (Putnam County) 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 Age Cohorts 60-64 Females Key Attributes • “Left Behinds” • Smaller Working Populations • Young Adult Flight Males 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2% Percent Population 4% 6% 8% 10% Source: 2010 Census SF1, Table P12 Types of Florida Counties: Rural Counties and Prisons (Lafayette County) 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 Key Attributes • Male Dominated • Lack of Young Adults Females Males 65-69 Age Cohorts 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2% Percent Population 4% 6% 8% 10% Source: 2010 Census SF1, Table P12 Types of Florida Counties: Military Bases (Okaloosa County) 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 Key Attributes • Young Adult Oversupply • Lots of Children • Military Retirees Females Males Age Cohorts 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2% Percent Population 4% 6% 8% 10% Source: 2010 Census SF1, Table P12 Types of Florida Counties: Retirement-Leaning (Collier County) Females 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 Key Attributes • Strong Bases • Retiree Presence • Fewer Young Adults Males Age Cohorts 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2% Percent Population 4% 6% 8% 10% Source: 2010 Census SF1, Table P12 Types of Florida Counties: Hyper-Retirement Land (Sumter County) 85+ Females Males 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 Age Cohorts 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 Key Attributes • Aged 55+ Dominate • Where are the Young People? 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2% Percent Population 4% 6% 8% 10% Source: 2010 Census SF1, Table P12 Types of Florida Counties: Retirement Land (Sarasota County, aka Florida’s Future!) 85+ 80-84 Females 75-79 Males 70-74 65-69 Age Cohorts 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 Key Attributes • Top Heavy w/ Retirees • Fewer Young Adults 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2% Percent Population 4% 6% 8% 10% Source: 2010 Census SF1, Table P12 Florida Population Pyramid, 2010 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 Baby Boom 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Males 2.0% Females 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% Florida Population Pyramid, 2030 85+ 80-84 75-79 Baby Boom 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Males 2.0% Females 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% Florida (Outline) vs. United States (Color) Population Pyramid, 2030 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 Baby Boom 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Males 2.0% Females 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% Outline: Florida 2030 Comparing Pop Pyramids 1970 and 2030 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Males Females In 2030: A “Mushroom Cloud”, Poised to Destroy??? The Fear of a Demographic Time Bomb 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% In 1970: A “Rocket Ship”, Ready to Takeoff!!! The Promise of a Young, Growing State 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 10.0% Males Females 5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% Dr. Tim Chapin, FSU Urban & Regional Planning Florida’s 2030 Population 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 10.0% Males Females 5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% Not a Mushroom Cloud, but opportunities for Florida to… • Be a national aging policy leader • Make great use of an older, skilled workforce • Exploit deep community leadership capacity and a “give back” culture • A leader in transportation for the aging (AVs, driver cessation programs) • Pursue medical innovation, aimed at Quality of Life, not Quality of Death The Future is Silver (and Let’s Hope It Brings Gold!) Florida Percent Population Growth by Age Cohort 2010-2020 Florida’s 2010 Age Dependency Ratio is Already an Outlier in Terms of Its Mix Dependency Ratio is a ratio of Children aged 0-17 plus Older Adults aged 65+ per 100 Working Age Population members aged 18-64. Florida Residents Percent by Age 1950-2030 70.0% 0-19 20-64 65+ 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% Around 2022, Florida is projected to have more residents aged 65+ than residents aged 0-19. 0.0% 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Understanding Older Adults – Go Gos, Slow Gos, and No Gos Attribute Go-Gos Slow-Gos No-Gos Age* 65-74 75-84 85+ Health Very Good Good In Decline Engagement Social, Active Slowing Down Limited Transitioning Managed Care Housing Independent *These numbers are rough approximations Florida’s Go-Go Advantage Implications of the Older Adult Boom • Community and Planning Implications: Florida can be (must be!) a leader in providing for a high quality of life for older adults. – Recognizing and Supporting NORCs (Naturally Occurring Retirement Communities) – Providing for a Range of Housing Options – Creating Transportation Systems and Technology that Promote Older Adult Mobility – Leading the Nation in Universal Design Housing Provision – Rethinking the Way We Provide Medical Services • Education: Lost in the flood of Baby Boom retirees is the fact that our school age population will also increase. Population Racial/Ethnic Composition November 18, 1993 Cover The “Browning of America” Percent Minority Population by County, 2010 Minority Population Change by County, 2000-2010 The Ongoing “Browning of America” Continued Diversification is Inevitable Northern Migration of Hispanics in Florida, 1990-2010 1990 2000 2010 • Florida’s Hispanic population continues to spread northward • Counties in Florida’s Big Bend and the Panhandle are seeing influxes of Hispanic populations Ethnicity Matters: The Demographic Differences Between Hispanics and Non-Hispanics in Florida State of Florida Non-Hispanic Percent Population by Age and Sex, 2010 State of Florida Hispanic Percent Population by Age and Sex, 2010 85+ 85+ 80-84 Females 75-79 65-69 60-64 60-64 55-59 55-59 50-54 50-54 45-49 45-49 40-44 40-44 35-39 35-39 30-34 30-34 25-29 25-29 20-24 20-24 15-19 15-19 10-14 10-14 5-9 5-9 0-4 0-4 4% 2% 0% 2% 4% Percent Population Males 70-74 65-69 6% Females 75-79 Males 70-74 80-84 6% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2% Percent Population 4% 6% Ethnicity Matters: The Demographic Differences Between Hispanics and Non-Hispanics in the USA US Hispanic Percent Population by Age and Sex, 2010 US Non-Hispanic Percent Population by Age and Sex, 2010 85+ 85+ 80-84 80-84 Females 75-79 Females 75-79 Males 70-74 65-69 65-69 60-64 60-64 55-59 55-59 50-54 50-54 45-49 45-49 40-44 40-44 35-39 35-39 30-34 30-34 25-29 25-29 20-24 20-24 15-19 15-19 10-14 10-14 5-9 5-9 0-4 0-4 6% 4% 2% 0% 2% 4% Percent Population Males 70-74 6% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2% 4% Percent Population 6% National Gateway States and Metro Areas Percent of Population that is Foreign Born Florida as a “Gateway State” • Florida is one of several “gateway states” that take in the vast majority of immigrants to the United States. (CA, TX, NY) • As of the 2007-2011 ACS, roughly 1 in 5 (~20%) of Florida residents were born outside of the United States. Immigration as the Key to Population Growth Florida’s Diversity Far Surpasses that of Most Other States United States Florida FL Rank Pct Black 13.1% 16.5% 12th Pct Hispanic 16.7% 22.9% 6th Pct Foreign Born 12.8% 19.2% 5th Pct English Not Spoken at Home 20.3% 27.0% 8th The Great American Melting Pot Implications with Continued Diversification • Political Implications: Some commentators have made the case that older, White America and younger, Brown America are at war. • William Frey and Dowell Myers disagree • As a field, Planning must, must, must diversify, with all due speed Changing Households and Houses America’s Shrinking Households “Leave it to Beaver” Getting Left Behind • The vast majority (~90%) of new households created in the next two decades will not contain children. • In particular, lots more “singles” households will come into existence. The “Singleton” Revolution • • • • Young Singles Widows/Widowers Divorced Singles Choice Singles Implications of these Demographic Changes on Florida’s Households • There will be a significant rise in: • “Singles” households, • “SINKs” - single income no kids households, • “DINKs” - double income no kids households, and • Other “non-traditional” households • These smaller households will result in lesser demand for large homes on large lots. • These households will likely desire a different package of amenities and local land uses than households with children. • For social service providers, there will be new challenges to serve smaller households with less in-home support. Quality Growth’s Demographic Opportunity Quality Growth Attribute Impact of Changing Demographics on QG Dimension Density Preference for smaller and/or attached dwelling units on smaller lots Mix of Uses Desire accessibility to shopping, health care, and recreational uses Mix of Housing Greater demand for and acceptability of a range of housing types Multiple Modes Prefer/Require transit accessibility and pedestrian oriented development Urban Revitalization Greater preference for more urban locations with interesting settings Reduced Footprint Smaller Lots + Greater Mixed Use + More Diverse Mode Choices = Reduced VMT and Reduced Footprint Summing Up: Part I 1. There are several ongoing, intertwined demographic trends shaping and reshaping Florida and the US. Recognizing these trends and their potential impacts upon the landscape is key for the success of planning interventions. 2. Florida’s and the US Population will continue to grow, especially as the economy recovers. There will be a growing need for services, but in a fiscal climate where less funding may be available. 3. There is indeed a remarkably powerful “Silver Tsunami”; by 2025 roughly 1 in 4 Floridians will be elderly. There will be increased (and specialized) demands for elderly services. Summing Up: Part II 4. The population continues to diversify. Planners and demographers will need to recognize and be prepared for increasingly complex households, cultural settings, and language issues. 5. Non-children households, especially “singles” households, are where household growth is. While there may be an emphasis upon married couple households and/or households with children, household trends are moving away from this classic suburban household model. If You Want More Info…
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