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Demographics are Destiny:
How Demographic Trends are
Reshaping Florida and the United States
Dr. Tim Chapin
([email protected])
Interim Dean, College of Social Science and Public Policy
Professor, Department of Urban & Regional Planning
Florida State University
APA Florida – Emerging Topics Webinar
August 15, 2016
The Big Points for Today
• There are ongoing, massive demographic
changes shaping the state of Florida and nation
that require attention from the planning
community, policymakers, and elected officials.
 The Florida Growth Machine Keeps Going
 The Silver Tsunami (aka “Grey Wave”)
 The Continued Browning of Florida
 Household Size/Mix Changes
• Demographics are Destiny! There is no way to
legislate or otherwise short circuit these changes
through state and local public policy.
Historic US Population Growth
Projected US Population Growth
450,000,000
The US is expected to hit 400 million residents
sometime around 2050.
425,000,000
400,000,000
Projected growth
due to intl migration
375,000,000
350,000,000
Projected growth due
to natural increase
325,000,000
2010 Population ~308 million
300,000,000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
Florida’s Growth Trajectory
Florida's Historic Population, 1830-2010
20,000,000
Almost 19 million
18,000,000
16,000,000
14,000,000
12,000,000
10,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
Almost 3 million
4,000,000
Just over 500,000
2,000,000
Roughly 90,000
2010
2000
1990
1980
1970
1960
1950
1940
1930
1920
1910
1900
1890
1880
1870
1860
1850
1840
1830
-
Natural Increase vs. Migration in FL
Source: Florida Legislature Office of Economic and Demographic Research
Decadal Population Growth
by State 1980-2010
The Great Recession Slowed
Growth in Florida… Temporarily
FL Population Composition Pop Quiz
1) By 2010, how big was Florida’s elderly
population (aged 65+)?
2) In 2010, what percentage of Florida’s
residents were aged 65+?
3) What percentage of Florida’s residents are
Foreign Born?
4) What percentage of Florida’s residents do
not speak English at home?
FL Population Composition Pop Quiz
1) By 2010, how big was Florida’s elderly
population? 3.45 million
2) In 2010, what percentage of Florida’s
residents were aged 65+? 18.2%
3) What percentage of Florida’s residents were
Foreign Born in 2010? 19.3%
4) What percentage of Florida’s residents did
not speak English at home in 2010? 27.3%
The Silver Tsunami:
Inverting the
Population Pyramid?
From
This…
To
This?
US Births by Year
The Silver Tsunami is Expansive
The Silver Tsunami is Expansive
Population Pyramids
• One way of looking at the composition of a population
is through Population Pyramids.
• Population pyramids show the composition of a
population by age and sex, represented by the percent
of the total population in each age-sex cohort).
• These pyramids typically show the following:
--Males on left side : Females on the right side
--Age groups as individual cohorts going from
youngest on the bottom to oldest on the top
Visualizing Population Changes
U.S. Population Pyramids 1900, 1950, 2000
Source: US Census International Database
Source: US Census International Database
Source: US Census International Database
Florida Population Pyramid, 1970
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
Baby
Boom
0-4
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
Males
2.0%
Females
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
Florida Population Pyramid, 1990
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
Baby
Boom
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
Males
2.0%
Females
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
Florida Population Pyramid, 2010
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
Baby
Boom
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
Males
2.0%
Females
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
Let’s Play a Game!
Name that County:
Some of Florida’s
More Interesting County
Population Pyramids
Types of Florida Counties:
(Sub)Urban County Balance (Hillsborough County)
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
Age Cohorts
60-64
55-59
Females
Key Attributes
• Age Balance
• Gender Balance
• Looks More Like
the US Pyramid
Males
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2%
Percent Population
4%
6%
8%
10%
Source: 2010 Census SF1, Table P12
(Sub)Urban County Balance: Polk County
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
Age Cohorts
60-64
55-59
Females
Key Attributes
• Age Balance
• Gender Balance
• Looks More Like
the US Pyramid
Males
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2%
Percent Population
4%
6%
8%
10%
Source: 2010 Census SF1, Table P12
Types of Florida Counties:
College Towns (Leon County)
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
Age Cohorts
60-64
55-59
Female
Key Attributes
• College Kids Galore!
• Fewer Retirees
• Solid Distribution,
otherwise
Male
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2%
Percent Population
4%
6%
8%
10%
Source: 2010 Census SF1, Table P12
Types of Florida Counties:
Classic “Rural” Counties (Putnam County)
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
Age Cohorts
60-64
Females
Key Attributes
• “Left Behinds”
• Smaller Working
Populations
• Young Adult Flight
Males
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2%
Percent Population
4%
6%
8%
10%
Source: 2010 Census SF1, Table P12
Types of Florida Counties:
Rural Counties and Prisons (Lafayette County)
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
Key Attributes
• Male Dominated
• Lack of Young Adults
Females
Males
65-69
Age Cohorts
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2%
Percent Population
4%
6%
8%
10%
Source: 2010 Census SF1, Table P12
Types of Florida Counties:
Military Bases (Okaloosa County)
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
Key Attributes
• Young Adult Oversupply
• Lots of Children
• Military Retirees
Females
Males
Age Cohorts
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2%
Percent Population
4%
6%
8%
10%
Source: 2010 Census SF1, Table P12
Types of Florida Counties:
Retirement-Leaning (Collier County)
Females
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
Key Attributes
• Strong Bases
• Retiree Presence
• Fewer Young Adults
Males
Age Cohorts
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2%
Percent Population
4%
6%
8%
10%
Source: 2010 Census SF1, Table P12
Types of Florida Counties:
Hyper-Retirement Land (Sumter County)
85+
Females
Males
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
Age Cohorts
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
Key Attributes
• Aged 55+ Dominate
• Where are the
Young People?
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2%
Percent Population
4%
6%
8%
10%
Source: 2010 Census SF1, Table P12
Types of Florida Counties:
Retirement Land (Sarasota County, aka Florida’s Future!)
85+
80-84
Females
75-79
Males
70-74
65-69
Age Cohorts
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
Key Attributes
• Top Heavy w/ Retirees
• Fewer Young Adults
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2%
Percent Population
4%
6%
8%
10%
Source: 2010 Census SF1, Table P12
Florida Population Pyramid, 2010
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
Baby
Boom
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
Males
2.0%
Females
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
Florida Population Pyramid, 2030
85+
80-84
75-79
Baby
Boom
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
Males
2.0%
Females
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
Florida (Outline) vs. United States (Color)
Population Pyramid, 2030
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
Baby
Boom
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
Males
2.0%
Females
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
Outline: Florida 2030
Comparing Pop Pyramids 1970 and 2030
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
Males
Females
In 2030: A “Mushroom Cloud”,
Poised to Destroy???
The Fear of a
Demographic Time Bomb
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
In 1970: A “Rocket Ship”,
Ready to Takeoff!!!
The Promise of a
Young, Growing State
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
10.0%
Males
Females
5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
Dr. Tim Chapin, FSU Urban & Regional Planning
Florida’s 2030 Population
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
10.0%
Males
Females
5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
Not a Mushroom Cloud, but
opportunities for Florida to…
• Be a national aging policy leader
• Make great use of an older,
skilled workforce
• Exploit deep community
leadership capacity and a
“give back” culture
• A leader in transportation
for the aging (AVs, driver
cessation programs)
• Pursue medical innovation,
aimed at Quality of Life, not
Quality of Death
The Future is Silver
(and Let’s Hope It Brings Gold!)
Florida Percent Population Growth
by Age Cohort 2010-2020
Florida’s 2010 Age
Dependency Ratio is
Already an Outlier in
Terms of Its Mix
Dependency Ratio is a ratio of
Children aged 0-17 plus Older
Adults aged 65+ per 100
Working Age Population
members aged 18-64.
Florida Residents Percent
by Age 1950-2030
70.0%
0-19
20-64
65+
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
Around 2022, Florida is projected to have more
residents aged 65+ than residents aged 0-19.
0.0%
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Understanding Older Adults –
Go Gos, Slow Gos, and No Gos
Attribute
Go-Gos
Slow-Gos
No-Gos
Age*
65-74
75-84
85+
Health
Very Good
Good
In Decline
Engagement
Social,
Active
Slowing
Down
Limited
Transitioning
Managed
Care
Housing
Independent
*These numbers are rough approximations
Florida’s Go-Go Advantage
Implications of the Older Adult Boom
• Community and Planning Implications: Florida can be (must be!)
a leader in providing for a high quality of life for older adults.
– Recognizing and Supporting NORCs (Naturally Occurring
Retirement Communities)
– Providing for a Range of Housing Options
– Creating Transportation Systems and Technology that Promote
Older Adult Mobility
– Leading the Nation in Universal Design Housing Provision
– Rethinking the Way We Provide Medical Services
• Education: Lost in the flood of Baby Boom retirees is the fact that
our school age population will also increase.
Population Racial/Ethnic Composition
November 18, 1993 Cover
The “Browning of America”
Percent Minority Population by County, 2010
Minority Population Change by County, 2000-2010
The Ongoing “Browning of America”
Continued Diversification is Inevitable
Northern Migration of Hispanics in Florida, 1990-2010
1990
2000
2010
• Florida’s Hispanic population continues to
spread northward
• Counties in Florida’s Big Bend and the Panhandle
are seeing influxes of Hispanic populations
Ethnicity Matters: The Demographic Differences
Between Hispanics and Non-Hispanics in Florida
State of Florida Non-Hispanic Percent
Population by Age and Sex, 2010
State of Florida Hispanic Percent
Population by Age and Sex, 2010
85+
85+
80-84
Females
75-79
65-69
60-64
60-64
55-59
55-59
50-54
50-54
45-49
45-49
40-44
40-44
35-39
35-39
30-34
30-34
25-29
25-29
20-24
20-24
15-19
15-19
10-14
10-14
5-9
5-9
0-4
0-4
4%
2%
0%
2%
4%
Percent Population
Males
70-74
65-69
6%
Females
75-79
Males
70-74
80-84
6%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2%
Percent Population
4%
6%
Ethnicity Matters: The Demographic Differences
Between Hispanics and Non-Hispanics in the USA
US Hispanic Percent Population by
Age and Sex, 2010
US Non-Hispanic Percent Population by
Age and Sex, 2010
85+
85+
80-84
80-84
Females
75-79
Females
75-79
Males
70-74
65-69
65-69
60-64
60-64
55-59
55-59
50-54
50-54
45-49
45-49
40-44
40-44
35-39
35-39
30-34
30-34
25-29
25-29
20-24
20-24
15-19
15-19
10-14
10-14
5-9
5-9
0-4
0-4
6%
4%
2%
0%
2%
4%
Percent Population
Males
70-74
6%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2%
4%
Percent Population
6%
National Gateway States and Metro Areas
Percent of Population that is Foreign Born
Florida as a “Gateway State”
• Florida is one of several “gateway states” that take in the vast
majority of immigrants to the United States. (CA, TX, NY)
• As of the 2007-2011 ACS, roughly 1 in 5 (~20%) of Florida
residents were born outside of the United States.
Immigration as the Key to Population Growth
Florida’s Diversity Far Surpasses
that of Most Other States
United States
Florida
FL Rank
Pct Black
13.1%
16.5%
12th
Pct Hispanic
16.7%
22.9%
6th
Pct Foreign Born
12.8%
19.2%
5th
Pct English Not
Spoken at Home
20.3%
27.0%
8th
The Great American Melting Pot
Implications with Continued Diversification
• Political Implications: Some commentators have made the case
that older, White America and younger, Brown America are at war.
• William Frey and Dowell Myers disagree
• As a field, Planning must, must, must diversify, with all due speed
Changing Households and Houses
America’s Shrinking Households
“Leave it to Beaver”
Getting Left Behind
• The vast majority (~90%) of new households created
in the next two decades will not contain children.
• In particular, lots more “singles” households will come
into existence.
The “Singleton” Revolution
•
•
•
•
Young Singles
Widows/Widowers
Divorced Singles
Choice Singles
Implications of these Demographic
Changes on Florida’s Households
• There will be a significant rise in:
• “Singles” households,
• “SINKs” - single income no kids households,
• “DINKs” - double income no kids households, and
• Other “non-traditional” households
• These smaller households will result in lesser demand for
large homes on large lots.
• These households will likely desire a different package of
amenities and local land uses than households with children.
• For social service providers, there will be new challenges to
serve smaller households with less in-home support.
Quality Growth’s Demographic Opportunity
Quality Growth
Attribute
Impact of Changing Demographics
on QG Dimension
Density
Preference for smaller and/or attached
dwelling units on smaller lots
Mix of Uses
Desire accessibility to shopping, health
care, and recreational uses
Mix of Housing
Greater demand for and acceptability of a
range of housing types
Multiple Modes
Prefer/Require transit accessibility and
pedestrian oriented development
Urban
Revitalization
Greater preference for more urban
locations with interesting settings
Reduced Footprint
Smaller Lots + Greater Mixed Use + More
Diverse Mode Choices = Reduced VMT
and Reduced Footprint
Summing Up: Part I
1. There are several ongoing, intertwined demographic
trends shaping and reshaping Florida and the US.
Recognizing these trends and their potential impacts upon the
landscape is key for the success of planning interventions.
2. Florida’s and the US Population will continue to grow,
especially as the economy recovers. There will be a growing
need for services, but in a fiscal climate where less funding
may be available.
3. There is indeed a remarkably powerful “Silver Tsunami”;
by 2025 roughly 1 in 4 Floridians will be elderly.
There will be increased (and specialized) demands for elderly
services.
Summing Up: Part II
4. The population continues to diversify.
Planners and demographers will need to recognize and be
prepared for increasingly complex households, cultural
settings, and language issues.
5. Non-children households, especially “singles”
households, are where household growth is.
While there may be an emphasis upon married couple
households and/or households with children, household
trends are moving away from this classic suburban household
model.
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