A stolen horse, a queen, and the 2015 Kentucky Derby
George’s annual musings and predictions
“It’s May, it’s May. The lusty month of May.” Queen Guinevere in Camelot,
celebrated the month with lyrics that apply to every horseplayer. May is
when “everyone makes divine mistakes,” especially in the Kentucky Derby.
Insiders know that Guinevere did not spend a full day dancing around the maypole, chasing
beaus like a medieval Sadie Hawkins. She was a British queen, and in their true tradition,
Guinevere undoubtedly made a quick exit to the local races.
Songsters Lerner & Loewe got it wrong. They didn’t know
British queens.
Flash forward to 1704 and Queen Anne, a real queen who
ruled Britain from 1702-1714. With a wink and a nod, Anne is
as responsible as any person for the thoroughbred breed as
we know it today. Well, maybe I’m stretching, but here’s the
theory.
Tom Darley, counsel to the Levant (Syria) had just purchased
the prize Arab colt of Sheikh Mirza to breed to his father’s
mares. English horses, bred to carry weight for long distances
over high fences, lacked the speed you see in today’s
racehorses. Darley’s imported Arab, only 15 hands high, had
dominant genes which stamped the foals of every mare with
his speed and handsome appearance.
So, what was Queen Anne’s role? We know she liked a fast horse and drove a one
horse chaise. Jonathan Swift observed that Anne drove herself “furiously like Jehu and a mighty
hunter like Nimrod.” (This passed for flattery in the Augustan age of Swift and Alexander Pope.)
Like many of her countrymen, Anne must have found the English racehorses too slow and
applauded Darley’s efforts to add some zip to staid bloodlines. How do we know that Anne was
aware of the new stallion? Sheikh Mirza wrote to Queen Anne about the “sale” of the Darley
Arabian.
He has been “foully stolen” by “British sailors.”
Seller’s remorse or truth? We don’t know what actually happened in Syria in 1704, or why the
colt was shipped from Smyrna (Turkey) instead of the much nearer Aleppo (Syria) where the
Sheikh held sway. The buyers presumably accused the Sheikh of keeping the money (or a
flintlock, under some accounts) and then reneging.
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Whatever the facts, Anne’s ministers did not urge diplomacy with the Sheikh. The Darley
“import” stayed in England, and covered English mares until the ripe age of 30. You will see his
descendants this Saturday. In a fair twist, many of the best offspring from Sheikh Mirza’s prize
are now owned by modern day sheikhs.
Breeding big English mares with a smaller, hot-blooded
Arab stallion created the thoroughbred, a genetic
masterpiece. At least eighty percent (80%) of the world’s
thoroughbreds trace back to the Darley Arabian. A horse
cannot be registered as a thoroughbred unless the
pedigree starts either with the Darley Arabian or two
other Arabs, all imported by British sportsmen looking
for an edge at the races.
The Darley Arabian
Whiskey thieves nabbed
I reported last year on the theft of a few hundred bottles of Pappy Van Winkle. When aged for
25 years, it can sell for $2,500 per bottle, country Nectar for the Wall Street set. Anyway, this
crime against civilization turns out to have been an inside job. Dirty rotten scoundrels. Nine
Kentuckians were indicted last Tuesday in Frankfurt County.
Classes in history and current events now adjourned. Turn the page for
this year’s prediction. We had the winner last year.
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And the horses, in order of finish, are:
Name
Dortmund
Select
profiles
p. 4
Program
Odds
Comment
#8
3-1
Runs close to the pace but not as a leader, rallies
to 1st on far turn. His macho temperament is the
only concern.
Mid-pack, rallies on far turn. Minor throat
operation did the trick.
Underrated NY-bred may have enough speed to
overcome the bad post.
Disappoints as the favorite. Lacks condition for 1 &
¼ miles, throws a shoe, gets bumped hard trying
to get position.
He is maturing and has a good late kick. If the race
falls apart, he could do better. Watch out. He
bites.
Calvin Borel gives him a flawless ride with the
colt’s new come-from-behind running style.
From Dubai with love. Shows his Dubai wins were
not a fluke.
If he runs the same way as he did in the Wood, he
could really surprise.
Rotten post; needs luck and a super ride from
John Velasquez. Has the capability to finish in the
top three.
14 length winner in NM with no respect because
he does seem to need the lead, and it will be hot
up front on Saturday. He has been close to
Dortmund twice. With Gary Stevens and luck, he
could win this race.
Another talented speedster. He cannot overcome
the curse that he never started as a 2 year old.
Bad call to race him today.
Has a late kick and three wins in New Orleans, but
beat nothing. If they all fall down, he gets a share.
A plodder, but he actually has a chance to rally
into a decent placing with all of the speed in the
race.
Nothing special.
Frosted
p. 7
#15
15-1
Upstart
P. 10
#19
15-1
pp. 6-7
#18
5-2
Danzig Moon
p.9
#5
30-1
El Kabeir
P. 8
#7
30-1
Mubtaahiij
p. 8
#6
20-1
Tencendur
#4
30-1
Carpe Diem
#2
8-1
#10
12-1
American
Pharaoh
Firing Line
p. 9
Materiality
#3
International
Star
Keen Ice
#12
20-1
#14
30-1
It’s a
Knockout
Ocho Ocho
Ocho
Far Right
Bolo
#13
30-1
#1
50-1
#20
#9
30-1
30-1
#1 post is the worst, and he will be in a speed duel
as well.
Has some late gas, but compromised by bad post.
Waste of a nice post position.
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Mr. Z
War Story
#17
#16
50-1
50-1
Framento
#11
50-1
One win in 12 starts.
They take the blinkers off. It’s a bit late to
experiment. OK horse, but overmatched.
A plodder who gets in because of the scratch of
Stanford / Starts in Post 20.
Select Profiles
Dortmund, American Pharaoh, Frosted, El Kabeir, Mubtaahij, Danzig Moon, Firing Line & Upstart
Dortmund 3-1
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Martin Garcia
Readers, there is no three year old in the
world who could beat this horse in a match
race. He is massive, at least 17 hands high,
and is undefeated in six races. He starts
fast, he runs fast. Based in California, he
has won at Churchill Downs by 7 & ½
lengths. His trainer says Dortmund simply
tolerates Santa Anita, but loves the surface
at Churchill Downs.
My special take and something you must know about this year’s Derby. As usual, only 20
horses can get in, based on points won at prestigious “prep” races at various tracks round the
country. With points to be won in CA, NY, AK, FL, KY, LA and NM, trainers usually search for a
prep that other good horses have skipped. Take the easy win. That’s been the story for most of
these this year, except Dortmund. He has faced and beaten a really good horse, Firing Line,
twice, at Santa Anita. How good is Firing Line? His trainer, Simon Callaghan finally wised up and
took him to a million dollar prep at New Mexico’s Sunland Park to avoid Dortmund. Firing Line
won by 14 lengths in a canter. None of the other favorites for this year’s Derby have faced a
horse of Firing Line’s caliber. So how good is Dortmund?
Other pluses: Dortmund drew the very favorable post position 8. He’s not stuck inside and he’s
not on the far outside. His sire, Big Brown, won the Derby and the Preakness in 2008, so there
are genes in his favor for the 1 & ¼ mile trip.
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Negatives:
Temperment, and lots of early speed horses in the field. Dortmund was very badly mannered in
the Churchill Downs paddock recently. Big crowds, lots of excitement. If he gets into an
aggressive speed duel and does not rate kindly behind the leaders, some loafer will pass him in
the 1 & ¼ miles.
Stupid name. It doesn’t roll off the tongue, does it? Dortmund, now termed the “green city” of
Germany, is an unexceptional holdover from the coal and steel era of the Ruhr valley. However,
it has a very good soccer team, and the owner is passionate about the sport. In fact, his Bayern,
who won the Breeders Cup Classic last year, is similarly named after a European soccer team.
About the owner:
Kaleem Shah has a racing pedigree himself. An emigree from India, his father and uncle are
horse trainers there. Dad won the Indian Triple Crown but gave his son good advice. Make some
money; then buy a horse. Kaleem’s company is one of the fastest growing in the US, is a major IP
contractor with the Defense Department, and he got his start with a $3,000 contract from GE.
His silks are red, white and blue.
Prediction: Dortmund sits off a fast pace and
wins. If he beats himself with rank behavior,
he will be out of the money and a closer will
get the roses.
Dortmund winning as a “baby” last year at Churchill.
Look at the size of him. Only 2 years old in this picture.
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American Pharaoh 5-2
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Victor Espinoza
He is the two year old champion. He
won the $1M Arkansas Derby by 8
lengths without a bit of effort. His
jockey rode California Chrome to
victory last year.
He is the nicest moving horse I have
ever seen, but he won’t win the Derby.
Pharaoh is the winner of four out of five races, with his first start the only blemish. Even though
an injury kept him out of the Breeders Cup Race for Juveniles, they made him the Two Year Old
of the Year. His most recent prep, the $1M Arkansas Derby, was simply a public workout. It was
Pharaoh and the field, and he made it look so easy. It’s the way he travels, and everyone is
noticing. So smooth, you can’t tell that he’s going fast. The Churchill Clocker who timed his
workout on April 26 said it was the best work he had seen in 30 years. His sire, Pioneer of the
Nile, got a second in this race, so he has the genes.
So why do I know he won’t win? 
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Negatives:
Conditioning. The best candidate for a Derby win will have exerted himself a bit (but not too
much) by beating good horses in a prep. Baffert sent American Pharaoh to Arkansas so that he
would not have to compete with Dortmund. The horses in Arkansas this year just weren’t that
good. In fact, the horses he beat up in California as a 2 year old were not stand-outs either. It’s
not the Pharaoh’s fault, but running unopposed in happy romps against mediocrities did not
properly prepare him for that final Churchill quarter of a mile with this talented field. I don’t
know if he has ever been bumped in a race, so Saturday will be a wake-up call.
Feet. American Pharaoh has bad feet that bruise easily and do not always hold the shoes. He
has been fitted with a full metal plate under a front shoe to prevent bruising. It seems to work,
and the trainer says it’s a non-event. I just wonder if his training and racing schedules have been
easier than needed due to this reason.
Post 18. In the “old” days, horses who drew a post this wide were considered out of it. That’s
not always the case, but it’s something to overcome.
About the owner:
Ahmed Zayat is a graduate of the BU Business School and moved here from Egypt after selling a
large beverage company to Heineken. As a boy, he rode show horses in Egypt. He lives in
Teaneck, N.J. and is into thoroughbred racing in the biggest way. In addition to Pharaoh, he has
entered Mr. Z. and El Kabeir. Getting one horse to the Derby in a lifetime is a dream. Three in
one year? Wow. What do they teach at BU?
Notables and longshots
Frosted 15-1
They made a lot of changes after a bad
race in Florida. Importantly, they think he
flipped a palate and it blocked his airways
in the stretch run. A very minor medical
procedure may have fixed that, because he
was an easy winner in the $1M Wood
Memorial at Aqueduct (NY) on April 4. His
sire, Tapit, costs $300,000 for a mating,
and his offspring prove it’s a bargain.
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El Kabeir 30-1
This horse showed a different dimension in his last
two races in NY. Instead of being on the lead, he is
settling and rallying with even strides. I liked his 3rd
place finish in the 1 & 1/8 mile Wood Memorial. He
finished 5 lengths behind Frosted. On Saturday, with
a hot pace and an extra 1/8 of a mile, he could be in
the hunt, but he’s a bit small and needs luck.
Oh, and guess who the new rider will be? Calvin Borel, three time Derby winner. That’s tough
luck for journeyman jock, CC Lopez, but it may make a difference to get Calvin’s experience in
this quirky race.
Mubtaahij (Elated) 20-1
The mystery horse from the
Mideast is well-conditioned
with breathtaking
acceleration.
Trainer Michael de Kock has
a fabulous reputation for
shipping horses round the
world and winning races
after quarantines.
Not only is this horse a
heart stopper for robust
good looks, he will run
without Lasix, the only horse in the field to dispense with what has become an everyday
designer drug in American racing. One little wrinkle: agricultural rules prohibit feed from
overseas, so they had to switch to American grain, which could have been a problem for a
creature of habit like a horse. But he is eating up and healthy. Mubtaahiij could be the big
surprise of the day.
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Danzig Moon 30-1
On paper, he’s an obvious late bloomer, but
he is a rugged-looking horse who has a
decent late kick and seems to be blooming
at just the right time. Other than his fourth
in the Tampa Bay Derby, he has run well.
The trainer blames the bad Tampa result on
a virus, because Danzig Moon spiked a fever
shortly after the race. At 30:1, what’s to
lose? One warning. Don’t hand feed him
carrots. He thinks he’s a big stud and likes to
bite. That’s not evil, just Alpha manners in the horse world. His grooms were proudly displaying
their wounds on TV a few days ago.
Firing Line 12-1
Firing Line has true grit. In this photo, he’s at the throatlatch of you know who – Dortmund.
They have been at each other twice, and have complimented each other. None of the other
colts this year have fought hard against an opponent with the quality of Firing Line (or
Dortmund). You get 12-1 on Firing Line.
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Upstart 15-1
Three firsts, three seconds, and a third out of seven starts. He’s a NY Bred who has been based
in sunny (muggy) Florida. His trainer says he loves the chill Kentucky air and is feeling really
great. The 19th post position is a concern, and he has American Pharaoh directly inside him. Lots
to think about, but enjoy the picture.
The normal admonitions and advance excuses.
Many of you have read this before, but just a reminder. Selecting horses is not an exact science.
As a boy, I remember a lady who sat in front of me at Saratoga, picking winner after winner
based on the names of her pets and grandchildren. By the 7th race, my ears had pricked up, but
the magic immediately stopped. Maybe it was the name of my pets. Go Tweety? It’s hard to find
a fast horse named after a parakeet, so I decided it was better to read the Racing Form.
The Kentucky Derby is this Saturday at 6:35 PM. If you are at a party, I hope you draw
Dortmund.
Best to all.
George
May 1, 2015
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