JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 107, NO. D14, 4205, 10.1029/2001JD000851, 2002
Warm season tree growth and precipitation over Mexico
Matthew D. Therrell, David W. Stahle, and Malcolm K. Cleaveland
Tree ring Laboratory, Department of Geosciences, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, Arkansas
Jose Villanueva-Diaz
Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales y Agropecuarias, Torreon, Coahuila, Mexico
Received 18 May 2001; revised 1 November 2001; accepted 8 January 2002; published 24 July 2002.
[1] We have developed a network of 18 new tree ring chronologies to examine the
history of warm season tree growth over Mexico from 1780 to 1992. The chronologies
include Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) and Montezuma pine (Pinus
montezumae Lamb.) latewood width, and Montezuma bald cypress (Taxodium
mucronatum Ten.) total ring width. They are located in southwestern Texas, the Sierra
Madre Oriental, Sierra Madre Occidental, and southern Mexico as far south as Oaxaca.
Seven of these chronologies are among the first precipitation sensitive tree ring records
from the American tropics. Principal component analysis of the chronologies indicates
that the primary modes of tree growth variability are divided north and south by the
Tropic of Cancer. The tree ring data in northern Mexico (PC1) are most sensitive to
June–August rainfall, while the data from southern Mexico (PC2) are sensitive to
rainfall in April–June. We find that the mode of tree growth variability over southern
Mexico is significantly correlated with the onset of the North American Monsoon.
Anomalies in monsoon onset, spring precipitation, and tree growth in southern Mexico
all tend to be followed by precipitation anomalies of opposite sign later in the summer
INDEX TERMS: 4221 Oceanography: General: Dendrochronology;
over most of central Mexico.
3309 Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics: Climatology (1620); 1812 Hydrology: Drought; 3344
Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics: Paleoclimatology; KEYWORDS: Drought, latewood, Mexico,
monsoon, tree rings
1. Introduction
[2] The annual climate over much of Mexico is characterized by dryness in the boreal winter followed by a
pronounced summer rainy season that lasts from May
through October. This rainy season is generally the result
of the northward progression of, and interactions between
the Intertropical Convergence Zone and the Bermuda and
Pacific high pressure cells. The high elevation and complex
topography of the Mexican Plateau also strongly interact
with these climate factors and the result is a highly variable
distribution of precipitation both temporally and geographically [Wallén, 1955; Mosiño and Garcı́a, 1974]. Understanding this variability and the factors that influence it is of
great relevance to Mexican society. However, the short
instrumental record of precipitation probably does not
reflect the full range of natural variability.
[3] Exactly dated tree ring chronologies have been
widely used to study the long-term history of precipitation
and drought [e.g., Schulman, 1938; Blasing and Duvick,
1984; Meko et al., 1995; Cook et al., 1999]. Dendroclimatic
research in Mexico has been limited until recently, despite
the country’s wealth of forest resources. Tree ring chronologies were first developed for Mexico in the 1940s
Copyright 2002 by the American Geophysical Union.
0148-0227/02/2001JD000851$09.00
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[Schulman, 1944]. Douglas [1980] used chronologies from
Baja California to reconstruct Pacific sea surface temperatures off the West Coast of North America. New chronologies and climate reconstructions have recently been
reported for Mexico [e.g., Villanueva-Diaz and McPherson,
1996; Stahle et al., 1999, 2000a; Biondi, 2001; Diaz et al.,
2001].
[4] The construction of earlywood (EW) and latewood
(LW) chronologies can help to more specifically define the
tree growth response to seasonal climate. Total ring width
(TRW) chronologies generally integrate the effects of climate over many months both during and preceding the
growing season. EW and LW chronologies of some species
have been shown to better represent climate during the
season of their formation. For several western conifers
including Douglas fir, this is typically late winter through
early spring for EW and late spring to summer for LW
[Cleaveland, 1983; Stahle et al., 1999, 2000a; Meko and
Baisan, 2001].
[5] In this paper, we compare our network of 18 new
tree ring chronologies sensitive to warm season precipitation with modern instrumental precipitation data from
Mexico. We also examine the history of warm season
tree-growth variability for the past 220 years and find an
out-of-phase pattern between tree growth in southern and
northern Mexico during extended droughts. This northsouth pattern was reflected in 20th century warm season
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THERRELL ET AL.: TREE GROWTH AND PRECIPITATION OVER MEXICO
Figure 1. Site locations and elevations for the 18 new latewood and total ring width chronologies from
Mexico and west Texas (coded by species). Generalized topography and the location of the 31
precipitation data grids are also shown (data were interpolated to the center of each grid box).
precipitation extremes and may be related in part to the
onset of the North American Monsoon over southwest
Mexico.
2. Data
[6] Our network of Mexican tree ring chronologies
includes 14 Douglas fir LW chronologies, one LW chronology of Montezuma pine, and three TRW chronologies of
Montezuma bald cypress (Figure 1). Several of these
records are among the first precipitation sensitive tree ring
chronologies developed from tropical Mexico. The site
locations of the 14 Douglas fir chronologies are roughly
distributed throughout the known natural range of the
species in Mexico and western Texas (Figure 1) [Martinez,
1963; Fowells, 1965]. This network includes a Douglas fir
chronology from the southernmost known stand of this
species that has been so valuable for climate reconstruction
elsewhere in North America.
[7] The Montezuma pine chronology was developed
from old-growth trees found in the El Cielo Biosphere
Reserve, in the state of Tamaulipas. This species grows
widely over Mexico and might be suitable for constructing
additional chronologies. Montezuma bald cypress or ahue-
huete is the national tree of Mexico. It is found along
streams and rivers throughout Mexico and in Guatemala
[Martinez, 1963; Fowels, 1965]. We have completed three
chronologies of this species. Like the closely related bald
cypress of the southeastern United States (Taxodium distichum (L.) Rich.), ahuehuete has great potential for providing very long, climate sensitive tree ring chronologies
across Mexico and perhaps deeper into the American tropics
(Figure 1) [Stahle and Cleaveland, 1992; Stahle et al.,
2000a].
[8] Historical monthly precipitation data were extracted
for 31 grid boxes over Mexico (excluding the Yucatan
peninsula) from a global land precipitation data set arranged
in a 2.5° latitude 3.75° longitude grid (constructed and
supplied by the Climatic Research Unit (CRU), University of
East Anglia, Norwich, U.K. [Hulme, 1994; Hulme et al.,
1998], version 1.0). The precipitation data extend from 1900
to 1998. Examination of the data indicates that there are a
number of missing values for the seasonal time period of
interest (April – August) prior to the 1940s and following the
Mexican financial crisis of the 1980s. We have chosen to use
only the period between 1942 and 1982 to provide the most
complete high quality precipitation data. No topographical
weighting was performed during the grid interpolation.
THERRELL ET AL.: TREE GROWTH AND PRECIPITATION OVER MEXICO
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This may have considerable influence given the complex
topographical relationships between the tree ring site locations (generally above 2000 m, see Figure 1), and the
locations of the meteorological stations used in the grid
interpolation. The precipitation grid cells are fairly coarse
compared to the resolution of the tree ring data, so we also
use monthly precipitation data from individual meteorological stations in Mexico on a selective basis. These data were
extracted from the National Climatic Data Center’s Global
Historical Climatology Network (GHCN).
3. Methods
[9] Each tree ring chronology is based on 60 to 90 increment cores that were exactly crossdated, using the techniques
described by Douglass [1941] and Stokes and Smiley [1996].
Following the cross-dating procedure, the EW and LW
growth increments were measured to a precision of 0.001
mm using a stage micrometer. The exactly dated LW widths
were measured using simple optical criteria described by
Stahle et al. [2000a] (Figure 2). Crossdating and measurement accuracy were statistically screened using the computer
program COFECHA which uses cross-correlation analysis to
scrutinize each core measurement series [Holmes, 1983]. At
this point, selected LW series or partial segments were
removed from the chronology development due to poor cross
correlation with the site chronology. This loss of signal is
frequently due to a decline in LW growth variance commonly
seen in older conifers [e.g., Meko and Baisan, 2001]. After
screening, the remaining LW width series were detrended to
remove age and size related growth trend and to eliminate
differences in growth rate among trees. The detrended series
were then prewhitened with autoregresive modeling to create
a serially random robust mean index chronology [Cook,
1985].
Figure 3. The eigenvector loadings for the 18 warm
season tree ring chronologies are represented by symbols.
Note the out-of-phase loading patterns north and south of
the Tropic of Cancer on (a) PC1 and (b) PC2 and the
percent variance represented by each PC. This inverse
relationship appears to partly reflect differences in seasonal
precipitation response of tree ring chronologies in south and
north Mexico (see Figure 5).
[10] We used principal components analysis (PCA) to
identify important regional modes of warm season tree
growth. We then performed a correlation analysis between
the factor scores of the first and second principal components (PCs) of tree growth and monthly precipitation data
from each of the 31 grid boxes, to evaluate the regional and
seasonal climate response of each PC. Following the correlation analysis, we created composite maps showing tree
growth and precipitation across Mexico during some of the
most anomalous periods evident in the tree ring and
meteorological data.
4. Results
Figure 2. A microphotograph of Douglas fir growth rings
from Cerro la Peña, Oaxaca, showing the distinct bands of
light colored earlywood (EW) and darker latewood (LW)
formed during the year of 1770. In cases where the EW-LW
transition is more gradual we subdivide EW from LW in the
middle of the transition zone [see Stahle et al., 2000a].
[11] The PCA shows distinct regional modes of variation
in warm season tree growth across Mexico (Figure 3). Tree
ring chronologies in northern Mexico load strongly on PC1
(which represents 21% of the variance) while the tropical
chronologies in southern Mexico load most highly on PC2
(13% of the variance). The spatial patterns of eigenvector
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THERRELL ET AL.: TREE GROWTH AND PRECIPITATION OVER MEXICO
Figure 4. Time series plots of the factor scores of the (a)
first and (b) second PCs of warm season tree growth in
Mexico. Note the differences in persistent low tree growth/
drought between northern and southern Mexico (e.g.,
1860s, 1890s and 1950s for PC1; 1830s and 1930s for
PC2).
loadings on both PC1 and PC2 appear to indicate that an
out-of-phase relationship exists between warm season tree
growth in southern and northern Mexico. These patterns are
roughly divided by the Tropic of Cancer (23.5°N) and are
likely related to differences in variability and timing of
rainfall between these regions. For example, warm season
precipitation in southern Mexico generally begins somewhat earlier in the season and is less variable compared with
northern Mexico, particularly northwestern Mexico where
warm season rainfall totals are lower and variability far
greater [Wallén, 1955]. Much of this variability is due to
fluctuations in the timing and intensity of the North American Monsoon System (NAMS). The NAMS is characterized by intense rainfall along the western coast of Mexico
beginning in mid May to early June in southwestern Mexico
and generally progressing northward into the southwestern
United States through July and August [e.g., Douglas et al.,
1993; Higgins et al., 1999].
[12] The El Niño-Southern Ocillation (ENSO) differentially impacts precipitation in southern and northern Mexico. The influence of ENSO on cool season precipitation
and EW tree growth is quite strong over northern Mexico
[e.g., Stahle, 1998]. ENSO has a more complicated influence on warm season climate across Mexico. Deficient
warm season rainfall across much of Mexico is typically
associated with El Niño events. La Niña conditions often
result in increased rainfall in southern and northeastern
Mexico, but drought across northwestern Mexico [Higgins
et al., 1999; Magaña et al., 1999]. However, we do not find
a strong relationship between ENSO indices and warm
season tree growth.
[13] Examination of the PC factor scores (Figure 4)
reveals several interesting features. The most prominent
being the severe growth reductions of the 1860s, 1890s,
and 1950s in PC1 and the poor growth of the 1830s and
1930s in PC2. The 1950s episode represents the worst
period of warm season tree growth over northern Mexico
since 1780 (Figure 4a). This coincides with the extreme
drought conditions that existed over Mexico and much of
the southwestern United States in the 1950s [e.g., Florescano and Swan, 1995; Stahle and Cleaveland, 1988; Cook
et al., 1999]. The PC2 time series exhibits lower interannual
and decadal variability than PC1 (Figure 4b) and probably
reflects the lower variability of rainfall in southern Mexico
[Wallén, 1955; Mosiño and Garcı́a, 1974].
[14] Correlation analysis between the PCs and the CRU
precipitation data shows that both PCs generally respond
well to June rainfall, but that PC2 is significantly correlated
with precipitation as early as April and PC1 as late as
August. Correlation analysis between selected tree ring
chronologies and station data from the GHCN essentially
confirm this result.
[15] In Figure 5a, we show the correlation between PC1
and seasonalized precipitation for the months of June, July,
and August (JJA). Interestingly, the correlation between
PC1 and JJA precipitation is strongest over northeastern
Figure 5. The seasonal and spatial precipitation response
of the PC factor scores of warm season tree growth are
mapped using the CRU gridded precipitation data. Note (a)
that the PC1 factor scores respond most strongly to summer
precipitation and (b) that the PC2 scores respond to
precipitation in spring.
THERRELL ET AL.: TREE GROWTH AND PRECIPITATION OVER MEXICO
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responsible for the north-south modes of tree growth variability measured by PC1 and PC2 (Figure 3).
[17] Composite maps of warm season tree growth during extended episodes of poor growth reinforce the notion
of an out-of-phase growth/climate relationship between
southern and northern Mexico (Figure 6). The five worst
growth periods evident in PC1 occurred in 1855 – 1868,
1890 – 1894, 1901 – 1908, 1950 – 1959, and 1978 – 1982
(Figure 4a). These periods correspond with many of the
most severe droughts in recent Mexican history [Castorena
et al., 1976]. The composite map of these 42 years indicates
below average tree growth at most sites in northern Mexico,
while growth is near to above average in southern Mexico
(Figure 6a). The opposite pattern is apparent in the composite map for the poor growth years of 1833 – 1836 and 1927–
1933 in southern Mexico (Figure 6b). A weaker inverse
Figure 6. (a) Composite map of normalized warm season
tree growth during the five worst decadal-scale growth
anomalies evident in the PC1 time series (Figure 4a). (b) A
similar map for the two poorest growth periods represented
in the PC2 time series (Figure 4b). These out-of-phase
patterns appear to reflect differences in the seasonal
precipitation response for chronologies in southern and
northern Mexico (Figure 5), and early versus late monsoon
onset in southwestern Mexico (Figures 7, 8, and 9).
Mexico rather than over the Sierra Madre Occidental, where
most of the LW chronologies that load most highly on PC1
are located. The seasonalization of the precipitation data
does not appear to be responsible because the correlation
pattern is similar for the individual months. It has been
suggested that the Gulf of Mexico is the source for much of
the NAMS related moisture entering northwest Mexico
above 850 hPa (1400 m [Higgins et al., 1998; Berberry,
2001]). The fact that all the tree ring sites that load
positively on PC1 are located at elevations greater 1400
m may mean that the Gulf of Mexico is an important
moisture source for these trees.
[16] PC2 is significantly correlated with April – June precipitation over a large area of southern Mexico (Figure 5b)
where most of the chronologies that load highly on PC2 are
located (Figure 3b). PC2 is also correlated with spring
(AMJ) precipitation over parts of northwestern Mexico
(Figure 5b). These results suggest that differences in the
seasonal and spatial pattern of precipitation response may be
Figure 7. (a) Normalized precipitation averages for the 20
driest spring seasons (AM) over Oaxaca (CRU grid 4055,
17.5°N, 97.5°W) from 1900 to 1998. (b) Spring is typically
followed by above average wetness in June – July, particularly over central/northeastern Mexico. Grid points (in
Figure 7b) with 20-year means significantly different from
average are shaded black (P < 0.05).
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THERRELL ET AL.: TREE GROWTH AND PRECIPITATION OVER MEXICO
Figure 9. North American Monsoon onset dates (Julian
day of year) in SWMX from 1963 to 1988 according to
Higgins et al. [1999] are plotted along with factor scores for
PC2 of warm season tree growth. An early monsoon tends
to be associated with above average spring (AM) precipitation and tree growth over southern Mexico.
followed by two months of wetness over much of the
country (Figure 7). A similar but inverse pattern tends to
occur following abnormally wet spring seasons in Oaxaca
(Figure 8).
[19] This inverse relationship between spring precipitation extremes and the subsequent two months of rainfall
appears to reflect anomalies in the timing of monsoon onset
over southwest Mexico (SWMX). Higgins et al. [1999]
have shown that an early monsoon in SWMX tends to be
associated with below average rainfall during the following
60 days over the NAMS region. Likewise, a late monsoon
tends to be followed by above average rainfall. This
modulation of monsoon onset and subsequent summer
Figure 8. Same as Figure 7, but (a) for the 20 wettest
spring seasons (AM) over Oaxaca. (b) Spring wetness over
southern Mexico tends to be followed by dryness in June –
July over much of Mexico. The patterns in Figures 6, 7, and
8 may reflect anomalies in the date of monsoon onset over
SWMX identified by Higgins et al. [1999]. Grid points (in
Figure 8b) with 20-year means significantly different from
average are shaded black (P < 0.05).
relationship between tree growth in southern and northern
Mexico is also evident during very wet periods indicated by
the PCs (not shown).
[18] The inverse relationship between tree growth in
southern and northern Mexico during drought and wetness
extremes may be obscured to a degree by the shared
correlation with June rainfall (PC1 responds to June –
August rainfall, while PC2 responds to April – June). The
north-south pattern of climate and tree growth extremes can
be more clearly seen in an analysis of normalized precipitation during the 20 driest and 20 wettest spring seasons
(AM) over Oaxaca, compared with the subsequent two
months of summer precipitation across much of Mexico
(JJ; Figures 7 and 8). These comparisons indicate that
unusually dry spring weather in Oaxaca has often been
Figure 10. Correlation between individual tree ring
chronologies and monsoon onset date in southwestern
Mexico. Sites significantly correlated with monsoon onset
are shaded black (P < 0.05). Most chronologies are
negatively correlated with the onset date, particularly south
of the Tropic of Cancer. A late monsoon tends to be
associated with low spring precipitation and tree growth.
THERRELL ET AL.: TREE GROWTH AND PRECIPITATION OVER MEXICO
rainfall may explain much of the out-of-phase pattern in tree
growth (Figures 3 and 6) and spring-summer precipitation
(Figures 7 and 8) between southern and northern Mexico.
Early monsoon onset over SWMX is correlated with above
average spring (AM) precipitation and above average tree
growth in southern Mexico. A late monsoon is correlated
with low spring precipitation and tree growth. The correlation between Julian day of year for monsoon onset over
SWMX [Higgins et al., 1999] and spring precipitation is
r = 0.53 (P = 0.005 using CRU grid point 4055 in
Oaxaca from 1963 to 1988) and is r = 0.49 for PC2 of
tree growth (P = 0.01, Figure 9).
[20] The tree ring data from southern Mexico, as measured by PC2 and selected individual chronologies (Figures 9
and 10, respectively), are significantly correlated with both
spring precipitation and the onset date of the monsoon in
SWMX. The results in Figures 9 and 10 indicate that it may
eventually be possible to use tree ring data to reconstruct an
index of monsoon onset for several centuries. This could
help document the natural variability of monsoon onset, and
might help explain decadal drought and wetness anomalies
reconstructed with tree ring data over Mexico, and the
southwest and central United States [see Cook et al., 1999;
Meko and Baisan, 2001].
5. Discussion
[21] Our investigation indicates that tree ring chronologies can provide unique and valuable insight into the longterm history of warm season tree growth and precipitation in
Mexico, and may have value for investigating the variability
of North American Monsoon onset and subsequent precipitation over portions of Mexico and the United States.
Principal component analysis and correlation with gridded
precipitation shows that LW chronologies in northern Mexico respond to summer rainfall while chronologies from
southern Mexico respond primarily to spring precipitation.
[22] Composite mapping of warm season tree growth
during some of the most severe droughts in the last 220
years indicates that unusually poor tree growth during
spring over Mexico is typically accompanied by above
average tree growth in summer over northern Mexico, and
vice versa. Even during the severe sustained drought of the
1950s, which drastically reduced tree growth in northern
Mexico and the southwestern United States [Cook et al.,
1999; Stahle et al., 2000b], tree growth was average to
above average over portions of southern Mexico (Figures 4
and 6). Analysis of 20th century instrumental precipitation
data during unusually dry and wet spring conditions in
southern Mexico appears to support this idea. This pattern
may be related to anomalies in the onset date of the North
American Monsoon in southwest Mexico and subsequent
summer rainfall across Mexico.
[23] Additional work is needed to more thoroughly
exploit the potential of dendrochronology in Mexico. Douglas fir is an exceptionally valuable species for use in climatic
reconstruction and is widely distributed in Mexico. Five
Douglas fir tree ring chronologies have been developed in
northwest Mexico, but the species is common at higher
elevations in this region and there is great potential for
further chronology development and extension using ‘‘subfossil’’ wood. Douglas fir is also found in high elevation
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forests of northeast Mexico where only three short, but
sensitive chronologies have been developed. We have
collected samples from five stands of Douglas fir in central
and southern Mexico, but additional Douglas fir stands in
Puebla, Hidalgo, Jalisco, and Zacatecas are known [Martinez, 1963; E. Cornejo-Oviedo, personal communication,
2001]. The Douglas fir sampled in Oaxaca were only
discovered in 1994 [Debreczy and Racz, 1995; Rodriguez,
1998] and other stands may yet be located in the rugged
mountains of southern Mexico.
[24] Douglas fir alone cannot satisfy the requirements of
a widely distributed network of tree ring chronologies in
Mexico. Montezuma bald cypress is found throughout
Mexico, and has enormous potential to provide long chronologies. We have already developed three bald cypress
chronologies 250-to 500-years long, and bald cypress trees
over 1000-years old have recently been discovered in San
Louis Potosi [Villanueva-Diaz and Reyna, 2002]. Some of
these ancient bald cypress trees are also correlated with the
onset date of the monsoon in southwest Mexico (Figure 10)
and may eventually provide the first annually resolved
climate reconstruction spanning the late Prehistoric era in
central Mexico.
[25] Acknowledgments. The Paleoclimate Program of the National
Science Foundation, (ATM-9986074), supported this research with additional support from the Inter-American Institute for Global Change (Treelines Project), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NA86GP0453 ). We also thank the Mexican Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales y Agropecuarias, the Gorgas Science Foundation, the
Communidad Santa Caterina de Ixtepiji, Rodolfo Acuna-Sota, Laura
Alanis, Juan F. Bolanos, Barney T. Burns, Pancho Camacho, Fernando
Carrillo, Eladio Cornejo-Oviedo, Martin Gomez-Cardenas, S. Cuevas,
Gene Paull, Armando Rodriquez, Melchor Rodriquez, and Jorge Sanchez-Sezma.
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