Google Consumer Surveys Presidential Poll
Fielded 9/15-9/16
Results, Crosstabs, and Technical Appendix
1
This document contains the full crosstab results for Red Oak Strategic’s Google Consumer
Surveys Presidential Poll, fielded September 15th through 16th, 2016. Question 1 is a screening question, so we report the simple unweighted distribution of answers. For the following
questions, all crosstabs are subsetted to respondents who are "somewhat" or "very" likely
to vote, with weighting based on age, gender, and region so the sample better reflects the
demographic distributions of the United States population of Internet users. Following the
crosstabs, a technical appendix contains information on weighting, margin of error and other
aspects of the survey.
Q1 [Screening Question]: "How likely are you to vote in the November US
Presidential Election?"
Very likely
66.6%
Somewhat Likely
8.0%
Not Likely
8.2%
Not Registered
8.6%
Other / Don’t Know 8.5%
Results for questions 2-7 reported from sample of respondents who are "Very Likely" or
"Somewhat Likely" to vote, with weighting based on age, region, and gender.
Q2: "If the US Presidential election were held today, who would you vote for?"
Results from previous survey (fielded 9/1-9/2) displayed in middle column, with difference
from current poll results in right column.
Hillary Clinton
Donald Trump
Gary Johnson
Other / Don’t Know
Margin of error ± 3.5%
1
(9/15-9/16 Poll) (9/1-9/2 Poll) Difference
32.8%
34.1%
–1.3%
34.8%
31.6%
+3.2%
8.1%
9.4%
–1.3%
24.4%
24.9%
–0.5%
N=914
Max Samels, Data Analyst
Questions? Contact [email protected]
Visit us at redoakstrategic.com
2016 preferences among voters who prefer a candidate
Hillary Clinton
Donald Trump
Gary Johnson
Margin of error ± 4.2%
(9/15-9/16 Poll) (9/1-9/2 Poll) Difference
43.3%
45.3%
–2.0%
46.0%
42.1%
+3.9%
10.7%
12.5%
–1.8%
N=697
2016 preferences among voters who prefer a major party candidate
Hillary Clinton
Donald Trump
Margin of error ± 4.4%
(9/15-9/16 Poll) (9/1-9/2 Poll) Difference
48.5%
51.8%
–3.3%
51.5%
48.2%
+3.3%
N=619
Results for questions 3-7 reported from sample of respondents who are "Very Likely" or
"Somewhat Likely" to vote, with weighting based on age, region, and gender.
Q3: "This November, do you plan to vote for a Democratic or Republican candidate in your Congressional district?"
Democrat
Republican
Other / Don’t Know
Margin of error ± 3.5%
32.4%
36.2%
31.4%
N=914
2016 preferences by 2016 Congressional vote
2016 CD Vote
Clinton Support Trump Support Johnson Support Other / Don’t know
Democrat
81.8%
4.0%
3.6%
10.5%
Republican
3.8%
79.1%
6.2%
10.9%
Other / Don’t Know
15.4%
15.6%
14.8%
54.2%
Q4: "Who did you vote for in the 2012 US Presidential election?"
Barack Obama
Mitt Romney
Don’t recall / Other / Didn’t vote
Margin of error ± 3.6%
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40.9%
34.3%
24.8%
N=914
Visit us at redoakstrategic.com
2016 preferences by 2012 vote
2012 Vote
Barack Obama
Mitt Romney
Other / Don’t Recall
Clinton Support Trump Support Johnson Support Other / Don’t know
66.7%
8.4%
7.4%
17.5%
5.2%
72.7%
5.7%
16.4%
15.0%
25.9%
12.4%
46.7%
Q5: "Thinking about politics these days, how would you describe your own
political viewpoint?"
Conservative
Liberal
Moderate
Don’t Know / Other
Margin of error ± 3.5%
28.8%
18.3%
34.8%
18.0%
N=914
2016 preferences by ideological identification
Ideology
Liberal
Conservative
Moderate
Other / Don’t Know
Clinton Support Trump Support Johnson Support Other / Don’t know
77.2%
6.2%
6.2%
10.4%
3.7%
76.8%
6.1%
13.4%
39.7%
22.5%
11.5%
26.3%
20.8%
20.4%
6.4%
52.4%
Q6: "Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as...?"
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Don’t Know / Other
Margin of error ± 3.4 %
23.8%
28.4%
32.0%
15.9%
N=914
2016 preferences by party affiliation
Party Identification
Clinton Support Trump Support Johnson Support Other / Don’t know
Democrat
78.7%
7.2%
4.7%
9.5%
Republican
4.8%
72.7%
5.8%
16.7%
Independent
33.0%
29.9%
12.7%
24.5%
Other / Don’t Know
13.5%
18.4%
8.0%
60.1%
Questions? Contact [email protected]
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Q7: "What is the highest level of education that you have completed?"
Did not graduate High School
1.7%
High School Graduate
10.9%
Some college or 2-year college degree
29.5%
4 years college degree / postgraduate degree 58.0%
Margin of error ± 3.6%
N=914
2016 preferences by education
Level of Education
Clinton Support Trump Support Johnson Support Other / Don’t know
Did not graduate
12.0%
68.9%
14.0%
5.2%
High School
High School Graduate
29.9%
37.9%
8.2%
24.0%
Some college or 2-year
29.1%
40.0%
8.2%
22.8%
college degree
4 years college degree
35.8%
30.6%
7.8%
25.8%
/ postgraduate degree
Q8: "What is your race or ethnic group?"
Black
White
Hispanic
Other / Don’t wish to answer
Margin of error ± 3.3%
4.3%
71.0%
4.5%
20.2%
N=914
2016 preferences by race / ethnicity
Race
Clinton Support Trump Support Johnson Support Other Don’t know
Black
60.7%
19.0%
3.0%
17.3%
White
31.4%
38.6%
8.3%
21.7%
Hispanic
49.2%
15.2%
8.9%
26.7%
Other
27.9%
29.1%
8.3%
34.6%
/ Don’t wish to answer
Questions? Contact [email protected]
Visit us at redoakstrategic.com
Technical Appendix
Weighting and Coverage Error
The survey is weighted over age, gender, and region in order to approximate the typical
Internet using population of the United States. Google provided these demographic characteristics for respondents based on their IP address and online behavior, and Google also
constructed the weightings based on these characteristics. Any respondents for whom gender,
age or region could not be imputed were not included in our final sample. This population
without demographic data amounted to 316 out of 1517 respondents to our survey. This
survey’s main source of coverage error is that it excludes members of the population without
access to the Internet or a smartphone.
Statistical Error and Sample Size
The margin of error is reported on a question-by-question basis, in line with suggestions
from both the American Association for Public Opinion Researchers and the practices of
established polling firms.2 To determine the margin of error for each table, we take the
maximum size of one half of the 95% confidence interval for each cell in the table with a
substantive response (i.e. not Don’t know / Other). We then multiply this number by the
design bias, which in this case is 1.06.3 In other words, we believe that there is 95% chance
that the true value of these estimates for the general population is within the margin of error
of our reported number. Total surveyed population of likely voters with demographic data
N = 914. However, since all of these tables subset the population in various ways to produce
the estimates for each cell, we report sample sizes on a per table basis as well. For tables
which break down 2016 preference by demographic characteristic and therefore use smaller
samples to estimate cells, the error for those cells grows accordingly.
Response Rate
The response rate for this survey was approximately 5.83%. After running our survey, we
were able to compute the percent of people presented with the survey who answer the first
question, and then the number of people who continued on to each subsequent question for
the survey. We could then multiply these values to determine the overall response rate.
2
"AAPOR Guidance on Reporting Precision for Nonprobability Samples", American Association for
Public Opinion Researchers,
qaccessed 8/9/16
3
Design bias defined as
eights) 2
1 + ( MSD(W
ean(W eights) )
Questions? Contact [email protected]
Visit us at redoakstrategic.com