National Drought Management Authority
Kajiado County
EARLY WARNING BULLETIN FOR SEPTEMBER 2015
SEPTEMBER EW PHASE
Drought Situation & EW Phase Classification
Biophysical Indicators
* The county received 3.2 mm of rainfall in September
which was observed around Ngong. This was 97% of the
long term (3.2 mm compared to 3.6 mm long term)
* The water situation in the county was described as
inadequate. Most open water sources had dried up. There
were high concentration of both animals and human at the
strategic water points.
Production Indicators (Impact Indicators)
* Livestock migration was early (June compared to
September during a normal year)
* Cattle body condition was poor and in a deteriorating
trend due to poor pastures availability while that of goats
and sheep was fair with minimal variations across
livelihoods.
* Milk production was 1.8 litres per day per household.
Access Indicators
* The terms of trade had reduced to 52kg of maize per
goat from 57 kg of maize per goat in August. This has
weekend the pastoralist purchasing power.
* Milk consumption was less than a litre per day per
household.
Utilization
IndicatorsRisk
Low
Current Drought
* Proportion of under-fives at risk of malnutrition was
Early Warning Phase Classification
LIVELIHOOD
ZONE
PASTORAL
AGROPASTORAL
MIXED
FARMING
COUNTY
EW
PHASE
ALERT
ALERT
ALERT
TRENDS
ALERT
DETERIORATING
Biophysical
Indicators
% of average rainfall
State of Water Sources
Observed
Value
97
3
Production indicators
Livestock Migration
Pattern
Cattle Body Conditions
Goats and Sheep body
condition
Access Indicators
TOT
Utilization indicators
% of U5 with MUAC
<135mm
Medium √
Observed
Trend
Early
migration
3
4
DETERIORATING
DETERIORATING
DETERIORATING
Normal Value
80-120
5
Normal
Trend
No Migration
7–9
7-9
Observed
Value
52
Long Term
Value
46
Value
13.22
Normal
0-5
High
The
drought risk in the county was in late alert. However with the expected El-nino rains there was high
13.22%
likelihood of flooding, human and livestock disease outbreak, displacement of people and destruction of
livelihoods. It is therefore recommended that the following intervention be undertaken to cushion communities
against adverse effects of the El-nino: Sensitization of communities against possible hazards, provision of water
treatment tabs, vaccination of livestock against FMD, RVF and Blue Tongue and provision of water harvesting
equipments.
Drought Early Warning Bulletin – Kajiado County
September 2015
1.0
1.1
1.1.1
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ENVIRONMENTAL INDICATORS
METEROLOGICAL DROUGHT
Rainfall
Amount of Rainfall
The county experience hot and dry weather conditions in almost all parts during the month of September.
This is the normal weather condition for this month. This is usually the normal weather condition for this
time of the year.
Nearly all parts of the county never received any rainfall in September except Ngong area that recorded
rainfall for two days amounting to 3.2 mm.
Unlike last year when most parts of the county received some off- season rains in August and September,
this was not the case for this year.
Figure 1: Rainfall performance in Kajiado County
(Source: Ngong’ Meteorological Station)
1.2
AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT
1.2.1 Vegetation Condition
 Figure 2 shows an analytical matrix for agricultural drought. The matrix shows that the county progressed
from normal drought in August to moderate drought band in September.
 Figure 3 shows the vegetation condition deteriorating below the long term average since July. This was
attributed to the dry spell experienced in August and September and also due to the fact that the long rains
in the county was erratic and did not translate into significant improvement in vegetation condition during
May and June.
 It’s worth noting that if we compared the vegetation depletion for the three months (July – September) this
year and last year, the situation was better this year (Figure 3 and 5).
 The actual vegetation condition indices for September were: 32.86 for the county, 21.55 for Kajiado Central,
25.33 for Kajiado East, 72.68 for Kajiado North, 35.68 for Kajiado South and 39.29 for Kajiado West. Kajiado
Central and Kajiado East experienced highest amount of vegetation deflection in September.
 Kajiado Central in particular started experiencing vegetation deficit since February. Most parts in this subCounty received below normal rainfall during long rains and therefore there was no significant improvement
in vegetation condition during March - May Period.
 The vegetation condition was expected to decline further during the first dekand of October when the short
rains are expected to start. In this case Kajiado Central was likely to slide over into Alert drought band.
Drought Early Warning Bulletin – Kajiado County
September 2015
Figure 2: VCI Matrix for Kajiado County
Figure 4: VCI Matrix for Kajiado Central
Figure 3: VCI Seasonal Graph for Kajiado County
Figure 5: VCI Seasonal Graph for Kajiado Central
1.2.2
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Field Observations (Pasture and Browse Conditions)
Quality and Quantity
The condition of pasture has remained averagely poor across all livelihood zones in the county. There were
however variations within livelihood zones. Pasture had depleted in the pastoral zones of Kajiado Central
while in Kajiado West and in Kajiado South the pasture condition ranged from fair to poor.
The influx of livestock in search of pasture from Kajiado Central to Kajiado West had exerted great pressure
of pasture and therefore the available pasture in Kajiado West would only last for a few weeks.
The current pasture situation was below normal at this time of the year and on the declining trend.
Deterioration of pasture was attributed to the continued dry spell in the county. The long rains were erratic
in many parts of the county and did not result into significant gains in vegetation condition.
Flagged areas with depleted pasture included: Loodokilani and Olkiramatian in Kajiado West, Kimana, kuku
and Rambo in Kajiado South; Embuko, Merueshi, Engirgir and Ilpolosat in Kajiado East, Matapato ,Ildamat,
Dalalekutuk, Purko and Meto in Kajiado Central.
Browse remained fair in all livelihood zones and was expected to last for one month.
1.3
HYDROLOICAL DROUGHT
1.3.1
Water Sources
 Figure 6 shows the water sources during the month of September. They include boreholes, traditional river
wells, natural rive, shallow wells, piped water and dams. These are the normal water sources at this time of
the year.
Drought Early Warning Bulletin – Kajiado County
September 2015
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From the chart, boreholes remained the key water sources at 33%, a reduction from 45% during the month
of August. The reduction was attributed to the prevailing dry condition that had seen some boreholes dry up
while others had stopped operating due to lack of fuel.
Notable strategic boreholes that had reduced its operations due to lack of fuel include those at Sinkairaine,
Kipeto, Kisaju, Oloorrisheta, olkilorit, Samai, Ololakir and Oltiasika.
Piped water sources were the main water sources in Ewuaso and Mbirikani while natural rivers were the
main water sources in Rombo.
The water situation in the county was categorized as inadequate and in a deteriorating trend. Most dams had
dried while water volumes in rivers were very low. In addition boreholes were yielding moderate amount of
water and that high concentrations of livestock at the strategic water points was witness.
Hygiene conditions were expected to deteriorate as water scarcity increase and this might create health
risks. Communities were therefore advised to ensure water treatment for domestic use.
Figure 6: Main Water Sources in Kajiado County
1.3.2 Household access to Water
 The average return distance from households to water sources in the county continued to increase from 6.5
km in August to 6.8 km in September. This would be due to drying up and breakage of some of the
boreholes which were in use in August.
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 Average return distances to water sources varied from one livelihood zone to another. In Pastoral areas the
return distance from the household ranged between 5.0 km in Loodokilani and 9.7 km in Mbirikani while in
agro pastoral areas this distance ranged from 4.0 km in Imaroro km to 7.0 km in Enkorika.
 Compared to the same month last year, the distance had increased slightly implying that the water situation
had deteriorated since last year. In September last year the return distance from the household to water
sources was 6.03 km.
 Water quality in the county continued to deteriorate as a result of contamination due to high concentration
of human beings and livestock at strategic water points couple with reduced water volumes.
Drought Early Warning Bulletin – Kajiado County
September 2015
Figure 7: Average return distance trekked by households in search of water
1.3.3 Livestock access to water
 The average return distance trekked by livestock from grazing areas in search of water increased from 7.28
km in August to 10.1 km in September. The increase in return distance by livestock from grazing areas was
as a result of livestock being moved away from water points in search for pasture.
 The average return distance trekked by livestock in search for water was above the long term average of
8.75 km for the same time of the year. In some areas such as Mbirikani water tuckering for livestock was
being done. The return distance in these areas was 19.5 km.
 Watering interval for livestock in September was after 2 days in pastoral livelihoods and particularly in those
areas with high concentration of livestock.
 Compared to the same time last year the livestock water access had deteriorated. In September last year the
return distance from the grazing areas to water sources was 7.5 km.
Figure 8: Distance from grazing to water points in Kajiado County
2.0
PRODUCTION INDICATORS
2.1
Livestock
2.1.1 Livestock Migration
 Early migration of livestock in search of pasture from Mashuuru, Sultan Hamud in Kajiado East and
Matapato in Kajiado Central towards Oltinga and Oltepes in Kajiado west were reported in July. Livestock
which took this migratory route were concentrated in Ewuaso in September while others had crossed to
Drought Early Warning Bulletin – Kajiado County
September 2015
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Narok County. Other migratory routes were Mashuuru to Machakos County, Sultan Hamud to Makueni,
Mbirikani to Chyulu hills and from Meto to Tanzania.
Other livestock from the county were reported to have moved to Think and Ruiru in Kiambu County.
Early migration of livestock this year was attributed to poor pasture in most parts of the county. The long
rains experienced in April and May impacted little in terms of regeneration of pasture.
2.1.2 Livestock Body Condition
 Cattle body condition remained poor and in a deteriorating trend since August. In September, the fore ribs
were clearly visible in most of the cattle.
 Areas with poor cattle body condition included Mashuuru, Engirgir and Ilpolosa in Kajiado East, Matapato
and Meto in Kajiado Central, Olkiramatian and Oldorko in Kajiado West, Kimana, Seneti and kuku in Kajiado
South.
 The body condition for cattle was expected to deteriorate further in the next couple of weeks with the
continued dry spell, increasing trekking distance in search of pasture and water. With the predicted normal
onset of the short rains the trend was likely to change.
 The body condition for sheep and goats was fair but in deteriorating trend due to reduction in both quantity
and quality of browse. There were no significant variations of shoats body condition observed across
livelihood.
2.1.3 Livestock Diseases
 There was no livestock disease outbreak that was reported in the month of September. However, it is worth
noting that movement of livestock in search of pasture, their concentration in grazing fields and watering
points offered opportunity for livestock disease outbreak. Outbreak of RVF, FMD and Blue tongue were
more likely with expected El-nino rains whose onset was in a couple of weeks.
2.1.4 Milk Production
 Cattle were the main source of milk in the county. Milk production in the county reduced from 2.7 litres per
household per day in August to 1.8 litres per day per household in September.
 The declining trend in milk production was due to deteriorating cattle body conditions as a result of poor
pasture. Cattle had also migrated leaving only a few of them at home.
2.2
Rain-fed Crop Production
 Land preparations for planting for short rains were ongoing in mixed farming areas of Loitoktok, Isinya,
Ngong and in Nguruman.
3.0
ACCESSS INDICATORS
3.1
Livestock Prices
3.1.1 Livestock Terms of Trade
 The terms of trade for pastoralist deteriorated during August- September period. In September one would
buy 52 kilograms of maize by selling a goat in comparison to 57 kilograms in August,
 The declining terms of trade was due to deteriorating body conditions for goats fetching lower prices
coupled with increased prices for maize.
Drought Early Warning Bulletin – Kajiado County
September 2015
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The terms of trade for September was above the long term average of 46 kilograms of maize per goat. In
September last year one would buy 62 kilograms of maize by sale of goat.
Figure 9: Terms of Trade for Kajiado County
3.1.2 Cattle Prices
 The average household price of cattle was on a continuous declining trend since July (Figure 10). In
September the average price of a mature bull dropped to Ksh 17,524 from Ksh 18,977 in August. The
reduction in average price of cattle was attributed to their poor body condition.
 There were no major variations in cattle prices among livelihoods.
 The average price of cattle in September this year was above the long term average. In September last year
the average price of a mature bull was Ksh 16,900.
Figure10: Cattle prices trends in Kajiado County
3.1.3. Goat Prices
 The average household price of goats in the month of September was Ksh 2,543 compared to Ksh 2,754
in August and Ksh 3,112 in July. The continuous drop in goats’ prices since July was due to continuous
deterioration of their body conditions. In addition there was increased supply at market level in order to
buy cereals.
 There was no significant variation in household price of goats across the livelihoods.
 When compared to the same time last year, the goats’ prices were lower this year. In September 2014
Drought Early Warning Bulletin – Kajiado County
September 2015
the average household price for a goat was Ksh 2,771. This may be due to prolonged dry spell observed
this year compared to last year. The off-season rains experienced in the county in August and September
last year improved browse during the period. As a result the body condition for goats and sheep
remained good.
Figure 11: Trends in prices of goats in Kajiado County
3.1.3 Sheep Prices
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On average the price of sheep was Ksh 2,426 in September compared to Ksh 2,560 in August, Ksh 2,749 in
July and Ksh 3,066 in June.
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Like the prices of goats the decline in sheep prices was due to deteriorating in their body condition since
July.
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No significant variation in prices of sheep was recorded across livelihoods during the month of September.
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In comparison to the same time last year, the sheep prices were lower this year. In September 2014 the
average household price of sheep was Ksh 2,667. In September 2014 body condition for sheep were fair
compared to this year due to better forage as a result of off-season rains in August and September.
Figure 12: Trend in prices of sheep in Kajiado County
3.1.5 Milk Prices
 The household milk prices was Ksh 47 per 750 ml bottle compared Ksh 45 per 750 ml bottle. The increase in
milk price reflects high demand for the commodity against low production.
Drought Early Warning Bulletin – Kajiado County
September 2015
3.2
Price of Cereals and Legumes
3.2.1 Price of Maize
 The average market price of maize increased from Ksh 46 per kilogram in August to Ksh 48 per kilogram in
September. The increase in price for maize was due to increased demand for the commodity against the low
supply in the market. Household stocks in mixed farming zones were already depleted by September.
 Low prices of maize of Ksh 40 per kilogram were observed in Agro pastoral zones of Rombo which borders
the mixed farming areas of Loitokitok.
 In September last year, a kilogram of maize was retailing at Ksh 44.50 on average. The higher prices of maize
in September this year was also worsened by low yields during the 2015 long rains compared to 2014 long
rains. This created a deficit in terms of supply against high demand at the market.
Figure 13: Trends in maize prices in Kajiado County
3.2.2 Price of Beans
 The average price of beans was Ksh 94 per kilogram in September compared to Ksh 91 per kilogram in
August. Like maize, the increase in price for beans in the month of September was as a result of low supply
of the commodity at the market.
 There were variations in prices of beans within livelihood zones. The highest price of beans of Ksh 115 per
kilogram was observed in Pastoral areas of Magadi(Oldonyonyokie) while the lowest price of Ksh 80 per
kilogram was observed in Pastoral areas of Rombo and Loodokilani.
 The production of beans following the 2015 long rains was lower compared to 2014. As a result there was
low supply of the commodity at the market thus high prices in September this year compared to last year. In
September 2014 a kilogram of beans was selling at Ksh 86 per kilogram.
Drought Early Warning Bulletin – Kajiado County
September 2015
Figure 14: Beans prices trends in Kajiado County
3.3
Access to Food
3.3.1 Availability of milk for household consumption
 Milk consumption was on continuous decline since July corresponding to declining production. In September
the milk consumption per day per household was less than one litre compared to 1.3 litres and 1.4 litres in
August and July respectively.
 No significant variation in milk consumption observed across livelihoods. The little milk consumed was at
household was given to children.
4.0
UTILIZATION INDICATORS
4.1
Health and Nutrition Status
4.1.1 Mid Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC)
 The nutritional status of children aged below five years continued to deteriorate from the month of July. The
proportion of under-fives who were at risk of malnutrition in September stood at 13.22 percent compared
to 9.77% in July. The deteriorating trend of malnutrition was attributed to declining milk availability and
poor dietary combination due to low purchasing power.
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Notable areas while above the current average of 13.22 percent included Rombo and Meto with 18.7 %
each.
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In the month of September, the level of risk of malnutrition for the under-fives in the county was above the
long term mean of 12.1%. In August last year the proportion of under-five children who were at risk of
malnutrition was 8.2%. This deteriorating trend of malnutrition may be explained in terms of decline in
purchasing power mainly for pastoralist whose term of trade was 52 kilograms of maize for a goat compared
to 62 kilograms of maize per goat the same time last year.
Drought Early Warning Bulletin – Kajiado County
September 2015
Figure 15: MUAC trends in Kajiado County
4.1.2 Human Health.
 No cases of human disease outbreak were reported during the month of September.
5.0
EMERGING ISSUES
 Kajiado is one of the counties likely to experience enhanced rainfall during the short rains whose onset is a
few weeks away. The county was likely to experience flooding. Displacement of people in areas such
Kamukuru, Shompole, Namanga, Kiserian, Kitengela, Torosei, Ngatataek and along Olkejuado river was
likely. Both human and livestock diseases are more probable during this time.
6.0
CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ACTION
6.1
Current Interventions
 Establishment of pastoral field schools to train farmers on range land management with the objective of
enhancing pasture production and productivity by Livestock production. The project is financially supported
by Agricultural Sector Development Support Programme and the County government.
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Provision of water treatment tabs to health facilities and schools by National Drought Management
Authority.
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Water trucking to schools and health facilities by National Drought Management Authority
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Provision of Gen-set to Oloitiptip borehole in Olgolului by Neighbours Initiative Alliance
6.2
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Recommendations to County Steering Group
Livestock and human disease surveillance. Action: Veterinary services and Ministry of health respectively
Vaccination against RVF, FMD and blue tongue. Action: Veterinary services
Provision of water treatment tabs. Action: MOH
Community sensitization on El nino: Action: County Government & Meteorological Department
Provision of water harvesting tanks. Action: Ministry of Water
Drought Early Warning Bulletin – Kajiado County
September 2015