March Issue
Monthly Climatology Summary for
California / Arizona
with National 30 / 60 / 90 day Extended Outlook
Exclusively for subscribers of the Weather Advisory Service
Roland Clark
© 2017
www.weatheradvisoryservice.com
Helping Growers Thrive is our Passion
2017
March Issue
2017
Contents
CALIFORNIA / ARIZONA SUMMARIES FOR FEBRUARY 2016 .................................................................................................................................................................3
Coastal Temperature Summaries ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 3
Inland Temperature Summaries ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 4
Weekly Temperature Averages ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 5
Coastal Rain Summaries .....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................11
Inland Rain Summaries.......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................12
CALIFORNIA DROUGHT ASSESSMENT ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 13
ARIZONA DROUGHT ASSESSMENT .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 14
EL NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION STATUS ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 15
MARCH OUTLOOK ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 16
60 DAY OUTLOOK............................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 17
90 DAY OUTLOOK............................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 18
CALIFORNIA / ARIZONA SUMMARIES FOR FEBRUARY 2016
Coastal Temperature Summaries
Daily high temperatures in the Central Coast and Southern CA coastal fields were near normal or cooler across the board with the largest anomalies
occurring over San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Co.’s. Those high temperatures were also cooler by a whopping 8 to 13 degrees from February of
2016.
Morning low temps were remarkably warmer than historical averages by 2.4 to 7 degrees and most stations were slightly warmer than 2016. While the
culprit for last year’s warm morning lows was the abnormally warm sea surface temperatures along the coast, this year the major issue was the greatly
increased rainfall.
CENTRAL COAST
AVG HI
DEP FROM
2016
DEP FROM
NORMAL
AVG LO
DEP FROM
2016
DEP FROM
NORMAL
AVG
TEMP
DEP FROM
2016
DEP FROM
NORMAL
DAYS HI
>=90
DAYS LO
<=32
SAN JOSE
WATSONVILLE
SALINAS
MONTEREY
PASO ROBLES
SANTA MARIA
GOLETA
61.4
60.8
62
60.4
60.4
60.8
61.8
-7.6
-8.6
-9.4
-8.1
N/A
N/A
N/A
-0.5
N/A
-0.8
N/A
-1.6
-3.2
-1.9
47.1
44.8
45.9
47.1
42.9
46.1
48.1
1.1
1.1
0.8
0.3
N/A
N/A
N/A
2.4
N/A
2.7
N/A
4.7
4.4
4.4
54.2
52.8
54
53.7
51.6
53.5
54.9
-3.3
-3.8
-4.3
-4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1
1
N/A
1.5
0.7
1.2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
1
0
SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA
AVG HI
DEP FROM
2016
DEP FROM
NORMAL
AVG LO
DEP FROM
2016
DEP FROM
NORMAL
AVG
TEMP
DEP FROM
2016
DEP FROM
NORMAL
DAYS HI
>=90
DAYS LO
<=32
PALMDALE
CAMARILLO
FULLERTON
SANTA ANA
OCEANSIDE
RAMONA
61.7
63.8
66.6
64
64.3
64.6
N/A
N/A
-13.2
-11.3
-9.8
-11.1
0.1
-1.5
-1.5
-2.3
-0.9
-0.2
42.5
48.5
50.8
52.1
47.9
41.3
N/A
N/A
0.8
1.6
6.1
2.5
7
6.3
3.2
3.5
4.7
4.2
52.1
56.1
58.7
58.1
56.1
53
N/A
N/A
-6.2
-4.8
-1.8
-4.3
3.6
2.4
0.8
0.7
1.9
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
3
3
Inland Temperature Summaries
Daily high temperatures over inland valleys of CA and AZ were much cooler than last year but anomalies varied slightly warmer / slightly cooler as
compared to 30 year averages.
Low temps were much warmer than February of 2016, due to much greater than average rainfall and lows were warmer than normals by 1 to 7.5 degrees.
The most remarkable anomaly occurred in the Coachella Valley (Thermal) at nearly 9 degrees cooler from last year. Overall average inland daily temps
were warmer than normals by 1 to 3.5 degrees.
SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY
AVG HI
DEP FROM
2016
DEP FROM
NORMAL
AVG LO
DEP FROM
2016
DEP FROM
NORMAL
AVG
TEMP
DEP FROM
2016
DEP FROM
NORMAL
DAYS HI
>=90
DAYS LO
<=32
SACRAMENTO
MODESTO
STOCKTON
MERCED
MADERA
FRESNO
HANFORD
BAKERSFIELD
59.6
62.2
61.6
54.6
56.3
61.7
61.8
64.8
N/A
N/A
N/A
-5.5
-5.3
-6
-5.6
-4.6
-0.7
-0.6
0.9
1.4
2.3
0.1
0.3
2
44.8
46.9
45.1
37.8
40.1
46.1
44.6
47.1
N/A
N/A
N/A
4.3
4.5
2.7
4.9
4
3.4
3.7
4.9
1.1
2.9
4.6
5.5
4.7
52.2
54.6
53.4
46.2
48.2
53.9
53.2
55.9
N/A
N/A
N/A
-0.5
-0.4
-1.6
-0.4
-0.4
1.4
1.6
3
1.2
2.6
2.4
2.9
3.3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
1
3
2
1
2
0
SONORAN DESERT
VALLEYS
AVG HI
DEP FROM
2016
DEP FROM
NORMAL
AVG LO
DEP FROM
2016
DEP FROM
NORMAL
AVG
TEMP
DEP FROM
2016
DEP FROM
NORMAL
DAYS HI
>=90
DAYS LO
<=32
THERMAL
YUMA
PHOENIX
74.3
74.7
72.2
-8.9
N/A
N/A
-0.5
0.9
1.5
48.8
53.4
51.6
5.1
N/A
N/A
7.5
3.3
2.9
61.6
64
61.9
-1.9
N/A
N/A
3.5
2.1
2.2
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
Weekly Temperature Averages
Growers routinely ask for historical analysis of temperatures for their growing areas. Unexpected excesses or limited supply is usually the driving factor.
The following pages provide easy to read charts showing the season's weekly temperatures in stock market format. An explanation of the "candlestick"
charts is shown below. They provide a ton of information in one little icon and we believe that they will greatly assist in evaluating planting / harvesting
schedules and irregularities for the recent season. We will continue to provide these charts in future editions of this report.
The weekly temperature charts cover a six-month time period beginning in the first week of September and continuing through the end of February.
Charts are shown on subsequent pages for:
Salinas
King City
Santa Maria
Five Points
MCAS Yuma
FIGURE 1 - SEVEN PIECES OF DATA DEPICTED IN CHARTS
5
Weekly Temperatures for Salinas, CA
110.0
100.0
90.0
80.0
DEG F
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
WEEK STARTING
6
Weekly Temperatures for King City, CA
110.0
100.0
90.0
80.0
DEG F
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
WEEK STARTING
7
Weekly Temperatures for Santa Maria, CA
110.0
100.0
90.0
80.0
DEG F
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
WEEK STARTING
8
Weekly Temperatures for Five Points, CA
120.0
110.0
100.0
90.0
DEG F
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
WEEK STARTING
9
Weekly Temperatures for Yuma, AZ
120.0
110.0
100.0
90.0
DEG F
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
WEEK STARTING
10
Coastal Rain Summaries
Seasonal accumulation has exceeded 30-year averages by 3 to 10 inches
with the most remarkable anomalies occurring in Goleta and Ramona.
Central Coast Rainfall
25
20
inches
Most February rainfall records for coastal California were set in the strong El
Niño winter of 1998. In February (a weak La Niña month), rainfall totals
were approaching records and a severe storm that impacted Santa Barbara
Co. pushed Goleta well into a new record by several inches.
SINCE OCT 1
15
10
5
SEASONAL DEP FROM
NORMAL
SINCE JAN 1
0
SINCE
OCT 1
SAN JOSE
WATSONVILLE
SALINAS
MONTEREY
PASO ROBLES
SANTA MARIA
GOLETA
15.58
19.6
14.79
17.76
14.63
16.22
22.94
SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA
SINCE
OCT 1
PALMDALE
CAMARILLO
FULLERTON
SANTA ANA
OCEANSIDE
RAMONA
5.89
19.02
16.17
15.73
13.61
21.56
SEASONAL
DEP FROM
NORMAL
3.8
N/A
5.37
N/A
5.14
5.92
9.56
SEASONAL
DEP FROM
NORMAL
-0.24
6.93
5.23
5.14
3.29
10.09
SINCE
JAN 1
FEB
RAIN
11.2
11.93
10.79
10.15
10.95
11.42
18.13
5.27
9.8
4.43
6.6
3.89
5.44
8.79
SINCE
JAN 1
FEB
RAIN
4.1
14.36
10.26
9.54
8.46
14.54
1.78
6.1
3.04
3.78
4.16
7.13
FEB DEP
FROM
NORMALS
2.16
9.16
1.94
N/A
1.30
2.45
5.46
FEB
DAYS
>.10
10
14
8
12
10
12
12
FEB DEP
FROM
NORMALS
0.06
4.78
-0.21
0.83
1.09
4.02
FEB
DAYS
>.10
3
10
4
7
5
7
FEB RAIN
Southern California Rainfall
25
20
inches
CENTRAL
COAST
SINCE OCT 1
15
10
5
SEASONAL DEP FROM
NORMAL
SINCE JAN 1
0
FEB RAIN
Inland Rain Summaries
Other SJV locations have seen between 2 and 7.5 inches greater than
normal but compared to January, the February has not been incredibly wet
for much of the area south of Sacramento.
San Joaquin Valley Rainfall
inches
Much above average rainfall continues across the San Joaquin Valley with
Sacramento the leader by far at 27.78 inches (18.33 in above average).
Although rain in northern CA has been impressive, it certainly has been
worse.
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
SINCE OCT 1
SEASONAL DEP FROM
NORMAL
SINCE JAN 1
FEB RAIN
The Sonoran Desert Valleys have now seen above average rainfall for most
locations with Phoenix coming in near normal for the season.
SINCE
OCT 1
SACRAMENTO
MODESTO
STOCKTON
MERCED
MADERA
FRESNO
HANFORD
BAKERSFIELD
27.78
14.09
17.88
13.51
13.19
12.87
9.21
7.29
SONORAN
DESERT
VALLEYS
THERMAL
YUMA
PHOENIX
SINCE
OCT 1
3.69
2.32
4.17
SEASONAL
DEP FROM
NORMAL
13.82
4.62
7.46
4.6
4.41
4.82
1.91
2.72
SEASONAL
DEP FROM
NORMAL
1.45
0.56
0.04
SINCE
JAN 1
FEB
RAIN
18.33
9.06
11.72
9.28
9.12
8.31
6.34
4.26
8.25
3.48
5.15
3.51
3.85
2.52
2.86
1.46
SINCE
JAN 1
FEB
RAIN
2.01
1.37
2.34
0.7
1.06
1.24
FEB DEP
FROM
NORMALS
4.78
1.10
2.61
1.17
0.06
0.49
1.13
0.22
FEB
DAYS
>.10
11
11
10
9
8
7
10
5
FEB DEP
FROM
NORMALS
0.04
0.67
0.32
FEB
DAYS
>.10
3
2
4
Desert Valleys Rainfall
inches
SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
SINCE OCT 1
SEASONAL DEP FROM
NORMAL
SINCE JAN 1
FEB RAIN
THERMAL
YUMA
PHOENIX
12
CALIFORNIA DROUGHT ASSESSMENT
The percentage of the state of California under NO DROUGHT assessment has increased to nearly 75%,
compared to 39% from a month ago. There are now no Extreme or Exceptional Drought
assessments in place in the state. Moderate drought (D1) was pulled back along the Coastal Range to
Santa Barbara County. The lake levels of the reservoirs in Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties
continued to rise but since the rains let up, they were not rising as quickly. Lake Cachuma’s reservoir
was at 87,466 acre-feet on February 26, which equates to 45.2% of capacity versus 42.4% a week ago;
Lake Casitas was at 43% compared to last week’s 42.3%; and Lake Piru was at 33.7% versus last
week’s 31.7%. Severe drought (D2) was kept in place in this region to reflect the continued low, but
recovering, reservoirs.
As of February 28, 2017
Week
Current
2/28/2017
Last Week
2/21/2017
Three Months Ago
11/29/2016
Start of Calendar Year
1/03/2017
One Year Ago
3/01/2016
None
D0-D4
D1-D4
D2-D4
D3-D4
D4
74.49%
25.51%
8.73%
4.08%
0.00%
0.00%
61.66%
38.34%
16.87%
4.19%
0.00%
0.00%
12.03%
87.97%
73.04%
60.27%
42.80%
21.04%
18.07%
81.93%
67.61%
54.02%
38.17%
18.31%
0.43%
99.57%
95.13%
82.66%
60.86%
38.48%
Credits: Richard Heim,NCEI/NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu
Drought Conditions (Percent Area)
ARIZONA DROUGHT ASSESSMENT
Moderate to severe drought conditions persist over southwestern Arizona with the highest assessments
over the lower Colorado River Valley and Yuma. There was some statistical improvement in the drought
assessment with the percentage of land with no drought increasing by about 3% from the previous month.
As of February 28, 2017
Drought Conditions (Percent Area)
Week
Current
2/28/2017
Last Week
2/21/2017
Three Months Ago
11/29/2016
Start of Calendar Year
1/03/2017
One Year Ago
3/01/2016
None
D0-D4
D1-D4
D2-D4
D3-D4
D4
47.36%
52.64%
14.72%
0.61%
0.00%
0.00%
44.99%
55.01%
15.02%
0.61%
0.00%
0.00%
22.61%
77.39%
44.76%
4.17%
0.00%
0.00%
38.68%
61.32%
24.76%
3.65%
0.00%
0.00%
19.36%
80.64%
16.66%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
Credit: Richard Heim, NCEI/NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu
14
EL NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION STATUS
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued their final La Niña Advisory this week and
officially, we are now seeing ENSO-neutral conditions. Equatorial sea surface
temperatures are near-average across the east-central Pacific and above-average in
the eastern Pacific.
ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue through at least the Northern
Hemisphere spring, with a tilt towards El Niño conditions returning by Fall 2017.
Graphics provided by the:
NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Climate Prediction Center
15
MARCH OUTLOOK
1 -2 week temperature and rain forecasts are provided via Weather Advisory Service daily/regional reports. Weeks 3-4 temperature expectations are for
warmer than average temps across the Southwest, Southern Plains, Louisiana and much of the Southeast. (Color shades are not depicted outside the US
in this NOAA product). With persistent long-range troughing in the eastern Gulf of Alaska, the best odds of colder than normal temps are over Southern
Alaska, Washington, Oregon, Idaho and Montana.
The week 3-4 precipitation outlook indicates enhanced probabilities of above-median precipitation amounts for Washington, the Northern Plains and
much of the Ohio, Mississippi, and Tennessee River Valleys. Below average rainfall is expected over much of California, the Great Basin and Southwest.
Note that all areas in white have equal chances of above or below normal precipitation.
Equal chances (EC) are
forecast among areas
where seasonal mean
temperatures and
seasonal accumulated
precipitation amounts
are expected to be
similar to climatological
probabilities.
Long-range forecasts,
no matter what the
source, should be
received with caution.
16
60 DAY OUTLOOK
The most recent CFSv2 monthly anomaly output is heavily promoting warmer than average temperature across the Great Lakes and Northeastern US
while precipitation anomalies are skewing towards wetter than average conditions across southern Texas, Louisiana, the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Drier
than normal conditions are shown over central and northern California (and at this point, let’s hope that comes to fruition).
Keep in mind this model provides an average of expected conditions over the entire month of April 2017.
17
90 DAY OUTLOOK
CFSv2 monthly anomaly output for the month of May continues to show warmer than average temperatures across much of Alaska, Canada, the Great
Lakes, Northeast and Mississippi River Valley. Of note, for this time period there are almost no areas of cooler than average temperatures depicted in
North America.
Precipitation anomalies skew towards wetter than average conditions over the Southern through Northern Plains and the Southeast with less than normal
rainfall for the Pacific Northwest coast, northern California, the Great Lakes and Northeastern United States.
Keep in mind these charts depict average conditions over the entire month of May 2017. Long-range forecasts, no matter what the source, should be
received with caution.
18