The Industrial Doctorate Centre in Systems
3rd Annual Research Conference
Proceedings 2012
1
The Conference Management Committee would like to thank the following
organisations for their support and involvement in the EngD Systems
programme and the Conference.
Arup
Buro Happold
Met Office
Halcrow
Renishaw
Frazer-Nash Consultancy
DRTS
Rolls-Royce
Imetrum
British Energy
Fujitsu Micro
Airbus
Motor Design
PCIP
IT Power
ATS
ProVision
GCHQ
MustRD
Ramboll UK
Taloph
Thales
Agusta Westland
BAE Systems
Balfour Beatty
Broadcom
CFMS
Dstl
Toshiba
Tidal Generation
London Gatwick Airport
Rencol
Capgemini
Sustain
Boeing
TWI
Vestas
Triumph Design
Babcock
CheckRisk
GKNAerospace
Parker Hannifin Manufacturing Ltd
2
Welcome
We are pleased to welcome you to the Third Annual Research Conference of the Industrial
Doctorate Centre in Systems. We are in our 6th year of operations and the RE‘s papers this
year are being presented by our 3rd Cohort. Almost all our first cohort and some of the
second cohort have passed the vIva stage so we anticipate a big celebration in July.
The EPSRC mid-term review has shown the Systems Centre to be ―excellent‖ but could do
more to engage the public. Never ones to avoid a challenge the Centre provided an
interactive discover systems thinking stand at ―Discover Bristol‖. It seems that most young
children are systems thinkers if allowed to be. Also Anders Johansson exploded theories
about crowd control in ―Bang goes the theory‖ recently by showing that an obstruction close
to a doorway can improve flow through it!
Our First Summer School in Transferable Skills was a big success for 20 REs and will be
repeated this year with other CDTs taking up any spare spaces.
Many people have contributed to the success of this event. I would first like to thank all the
speakers, and REs who have contributed papers synopses and posters. We also thank Dr.
Oksana Kasyutich our Systems Centre Manager, Sarah Tauwhare and Sophie CausonWood - our Coordination and Administration team at Bristol and Lesa Cross our new
Administrator at Bath for the tireless effort they have deployed in organising this event.
We really hope you will enjoy this event and that the program will be stimulating and
informative.
Professor Patrick Godfrey
Systems Centre Director
22th May 2011
3
Content
I.
Abstracts Cohorts 3 - 6
Ice Pigging in the Medical Sector; The Use of Engineered Ice Slurries to Clean Catheters
D.G. Ash, G.L.Quarin, N.Morris, R. Thompson, A Leiper, D.J.McBryde,
6
Analysing and Implementing Concurrent, Real-Time Control of Precision Metrology Applications
Using tock-CSP
Stephen Bryant, Dr Kerstin Eder, Stephen Davies, Dr Theo Tryfonas
7
Multi-Objective Optimising for Low –carbon Building Design – A Summary of Approaches
Ralph Evins, Ravi Vaidyanathan (UoB), Philip Pointer
8
De-risking the Implementation of Innovative and Sustainable Construction Materials
Ellen Grist, James Norman, Dr. Andrew Heath & Dr. Kevin Paine
9
Selecting Roof Systems to Improve the Sustainability of Buildings
Phil Hampshire, Prof. Paul Goodwin, Dr. Theo Tryfonas, Celia Way
10
Measurement Systems Integration for Large Scale Manufacturing
A.Kayani, Prof. Paul Maropoulos, Mark Summers, Dr Richard Burgete
11
The Application of System Dynamics for Sustainable Development
M.J. Montgomery, D. Pocock, Prof S. Heslop, Dr M. Yearworth
12
Modelling the Control and Hydraulics of a Linear Friction Welding Machine at Rolls Royce
D.T. Williams, A.R. Plummer, P. Wilson
13
Very High Frequency CMOS Voltage Controlled Oscillators
Liam Boyd, Dr. David Enright, Dr. Paul Warr, Prof. Alan Champneys
14
Process and Control Development for Conformal Direct Writing onto Structural Aerospace Parts
Mau Yuen Chan, Nadia Court, Alan Champneys, Paul Warr
15
Space Weather Forecast System at the Met Office: Early Results
A.T. Chartier, D. Jackson, C.N. Mitchell,
16
Non-Structural Flood Risk Management
J. Clarke, L. Lovell, Dr. J. Wicks, Dr. D. Han, Dr. J.P. Davis
17
ICT Investment as an Enabler for Urban Sustainability
Ellie Cosgrave, Theo Tryfonas, John Davis, Volker Buscher
18
Use and Embedding of Systems Practice in the Rolls-Royce Defence Aerospace UK Product
Lifecycle: The Application and Use of Systems Practices
C N Dunford, Prof. Patrick Godfrey, Dr. Mike Yearworth, Dr. Darren York
20
The Design of Permanent Magnet Motors for Electric Vehicle Applications
James Goss, Prof. Phil Mellor, Dr. Rafal Wrobel ,Dr. Dave Staton, Prof. Alan Champneys 21
Design Optimisation through an Integrated Approach to Parametric Modelling and Computational
Methods
John E. Harding, Paul Shepherd, Duncan Horswill
22
―The Portability of the Legacy Enterprise IT applications to the Cloud: A business value adding
exercise or an over budget migration exercise‖
I.K. Azeemi, S. Davies , N. Piercy, T. Tryfonas
23
A Study of the Relationship between Engineering Design and Dimensional Metrology
P Saunders, Prof P Maropoulos, N Orchard, Prof A Graves
25
4
A Systems Investigation into the Coordination of a Fleet of Autonomous Vehicles
Richard Simpson, Dr. James Revell, Dr. Arthur Richards, Dr. Anders Johansson
26
How does an organisation like CFMS contribute to a paradigm change in engineering simulation?
Hayley Spence, Chris McMahon, Martin Aston, Patrick Godfrey
28
Modelling an Engineering Organisation as a Complex Adaptive System in Order to Assess
Engineering Processes
Jim Stamp, Dr Mike Yearworth, Roger Ingle
29
An Integration Architecture for Communication Systems Network Modelling
D. Tait, Dr. Andrew Gillespie and Prof. Dave Cliff,
31
Multidisciplinary Coupling
Christian Agostinelli, Prof. C.B. Allen, Dr. Abdul Rampurawala
32
Cyber Defence Technologies and Architectures
Richard Craig, Shane Bennison, Andrew Owen, Dr. Theo Tryfonas, Dr John May
33
Developing a Method of In—Process Inspection for Carbon-Fibre Reinforced Polymers Lay-up
Dennis Crowley, Prof. Kevin Potter, Dr. Carwyn Ward, Dr. Kevyn Jonas, Nigel Jennings,
Dr. Oksana Kasyutich
34
A Systems Approach to Smart Grids
Saraansh Dave, Mahesh Sooriyabandara, Mike Yearworth
35
Optimising Carbon Reduction Strategies in Organisations through Systems Thinking
Rachel Freeman, Dr. Chris Priest, Toby Parker, Dr. Mike Yearworth
36
Development of Electric and Hybrid Motorcycles
Tim Hutchinson, Stuart Wood, Stuart Burgess, David Stoten and Patrick Godfrey
38
Ice Pigging in the Food Manufacture Industry and Nuclear Industries
Dan McBryde, Joe Quarini, Mike Tierney
39
Crowdsourcing Urban ISTAR
Barry Park, David Nicholson, Mike Yearworth
40
The Case for a Systems Approach to Technological Innovation
Elliott Parsons, Edward Goddard, Leroy White and David Seabrooke-Spencer
41
A Systems Approach to Implementing FEA to Support Design for Through-Life and Across Business
Functions for Volume Parts Manufacturers
James Upton, Prof. Patrick Keogh, Dr. Ben Hicks, Andy Slayne
43
Advanced Machine Tool Metrology – One Hour 5-Axis Machine Tool Calibration System & One
Minute Verification System
Mr. M R Verma, Prof. P Maropoulos, Mr N Orchard
44
Precision Video Measurement for Structural Monitoring Applications
Paul Waterfall, Dr. Chris Setchell, Dr John Macdonald, Dr Theo Tryfonas
45
Low Impact Building Materials to Improve the Sustainability of Buildings
Natasha Watson, Prof Pete Walker, Andrew Wylie, Celia Way
46
st
Buildings for the 21 Century
Bengt Cousins-Jenvey, Prof. Pete Walker, Dr Andy Shea and Judith Sykes
47
A Holistic Approach to Hydraulic Systems Engineering
Damian Flynn, Prof Christian Allen, Dr Ges Rosenberg, Mr James Playdon
48
5
Improve Predictability and Reduced Lead Times for Systems Engineering Activities
Dawn Gilbert, Hilary Sillitto, Prof. John Davis, Dr. Mike Yearworth
49
ENGINEERING THE ENTERPRISE: Facilitating Resilient Decision-making Throughout the Engineering
Lifecycle in Multi-stakeholder Environments
Andrew Hale, Edward Goddard, David Seabrooke-Spencer, Prof. Leroy White
50
Design of Adaptive Multi-Process Manufacturing Systems
Blake Kendrick, Prof. S Newman, Dr. V Dhokia, Dr. K Jonas and Mr. B Altwasser
51
Visualisation of the Change Process
Thomas Walworth, Hillary Sillitto, Dr. Mike Yearworth, Prof. John Davis
52
Design of Breakthrough Motion Controller System with Renishaw
Dave Sellars,
54
The Industrialisation of the GKN Aerospace A350 Spar Manufacturing Facility
Darren Winter, Chris Jones, Prof. K.D. Potter
55
Exploring The Implications Of Adopting A Systems Approach In Munitions Technology Development
Rhys Owen, Theo Tryfonas, Steve Atkinson
56
Exploring The Implications Of Adopting A Systems Approach In Munitions Technology Development
Andy Flinn, John Davis
57
Systems Practice in Engineering (SPiE) - Systems Methodology and Tools
Katharina Burger, Dr Mike Yearworth
58
II. Research Papers for the EngD in Systems, Cohort 3
(Final Year)
Ice Pigging in the Medical Sector; the Use of Engineered Ice Slurries to Clean Catheters
D.G. Ash, G.L.Quarin, N.Morris, R. Thompson, A Leiper, D.J.McBryde,
59 - 62
Analysing and Implementing Concurrent, Real-Time Control of Precision Metrology Applications
Using tock-CSP
Stephen Bryant, Dr Kerstin Eder, Stephen Davies, Dr Theo Tryfonas
63 - 65
Multi-Objective Optimising for Low –carbon Building Design – A Summary of Approaches
Ralph Evins, Ravi Vaidyanathan (UoB), Philip Pointer
66 - 69
De-risking the Implementation of Innovative and Sustainable Constructive Materials
Ellen Grist, James Norman, Dr. Andrew Heath & Dr. Kevin Paine
70 - 74
Improving the Understanding of What Represents Value to Inform Project Decision Making
Phil Hampshire, Prof. Paul Goodwin, Dr. Theo Tryfonas, Celia Way
75 - 78
Measurement Systems Integration for Large Scale Manufacturing
A.Kayani, Prof. Paul Maropoulos, Mark Summers, Dr Richard Burgete
79 - 83
The Application of Systems Dynamics fo Sustainable Development
M.J. Montgomery, D. Pocock, Prof S. Heslop, Dr M. Yearworth
84 - 87
Modelling The Control And Hydraulics of a Linear Friction Welding machines at Rolls Royce
D.T. Williams, A.R. Plummer, P. Wilson
88 - 91
6
Ice
Pigging In The Medical Sector; The Use Of Engineered Ice Slurries To Clean
Catheters
D. Ash*1, G. Quarini1, N. Morris2, R. Thompson2, A. Leiper1, D. McBryde1
1. Department of Mechanical Engineering, Queen's Building, University Walk, Bristol BS8 1TR
2. Bristol Urological Institute, Southmead Hospital, Bristol, BS10 5NB
*Email - [email protected]
The novel process of cleaning pipes and ducts with high ice fraction slurries (ice pigging) is
being used commercially in the water supply sector and beginning to find applications in the
food manufacturing industries. This work reports on the potential application of the technology
to the medical sector where pipes and ducts tend to be one or two orders of magnitude smaller
than those found in the water industry. The specific application area is the use of ice pigging to
clean the very narrow and complex topology tubes of catheters in order to remove crystals and
general fouling which occurs within them during use. The aim of the work is to enable clinicians
and nursing staff to extend the period of deployment of catheters within patients whilst
maintaining comfort and reducing potential infection to the patient.
The ‗medical‘ ice pig differs from previous ‗industrial‘ ice pigs, in that the size of crystals have to
be smaller have a tighter size distribution spectrum to ensure that they will not block the
catheter inlet orifices (typically 2 mm internal diameter), the freezing point depressant used has
to be compatible with clinical requirements, the delivery system has to be portable and
compatible with the working practices in hospital wards.
This paper reports on the preliminary work undertaken to demonstrate the potential of ice
pigging as a means of improving the performance of catheters. The tests have taken place in
the Bristol Urology Centre on in-vitro catheter systems. The results are very promising;
indicating that the ice pigging technology can be applied to this sector and is likely to result in a
paradigm shift in the management of catheter use, leading to significant comfort and medical
benefits to the patient.
7
Analysing and Implementing Concurrent, Real-Time Control of Precision
Metrology Applications Using tock-CSP
Research Engineer: Stephen Bryant, Renishaw Plc, New Mills, Wotton-under-Edge,
Gloucestershire, GL12 8JR [email protected]
Academic Supervisor: Dr Kerstin Eder, University of Bristol, Merchant Venturers Building,
Woodland Road, Bristol, BS8 1UB [email protected]
Systems Supervisor: Dr Theo Tryfonas, University of Bristol Queen‘s Building, University
Walk, Bristol, BS8 1TR [email protected]
Industrial Supervisor: Stephen Davies, Renishaw Plc, New Mills, Wotton-under-Edge,
Gloucestershire, GL12 8JR [email protected]
Cost-efficient processing power is moving from single- to multiple-core processors.
Therefore, to keep costs down, applications that have taken advantage of the increasing
power of single-core processors in the past may now need to start using multiple-core
architectures.
Our research is focused on analysing an existing real-time system, designed at Renishaw,
which was initially running on a single-core processor. The hope is to adapt the system for
the many-core processors that are likely to emerge soon in the consumer market. The formal
process algebra ‗Communicating Sequential Processes‘ (CSP) is being used in combination
with the model checker ‗Failure-Divergence Refinement‘ (FDR) to analyse and re-design the
communication structure of the application. Specifically ‗tock-CSP‘ is being used to both
estimate and guarantee the timing properties of the system, while aiming to minimise
arbitration and maintaining determinism.
During this analysis and design it is also necessary to consider how the final result, and the
methods used to achieve it, will integrate into the company‘s existing applications, processes
and culture. Without this consideration the benefits of the research could be eroded over
time due to disuse or lack of understanding, rather than acting as a seed for improving future
software and hardware systems‘ designs and implementations.
Finally, the research will compare the original implementation to the new implementation.
This will indicate how effective the use of formal specification and design techniques for
producing concurrent, real-time control software actually is in comparison to the design
techniques currently used by the company. It will also help to highlight any local or global
performance gains or losses introduced by the change of architecture from single- to
multiple-core processors.
This research should provide a useful reference for others, identifying and overcoming some
of the challenges involved in writing and adapting software for concurrent hardware, while
providing insights into the practicalities of applying ‗tock-CSP‘ to complex, real-time,
industrial software.
8
Multi-Objective Optimisation For Low-Carbon Building Design
- A Summary Of Approaches
Research Engineer: Ralph Evins
Academic Supervisor: Ravi Vaidyanathan (UoB)
Industrial Supervisor: Philip Pointer (Buro Happold)
Abstract
Four case studies are presented showing the application of systems ideas to the framing
and solving of problems. The areas covered are framework development (through
consideration of layers and the use of Design of Experiments and system decomposition),
decision-making aids (including lifecycle and risk issues), holistic consideration of the system
(via co-simulation), and system exploration (by means of visualisation). The systems
approaches have proved useful in overcoming challenges of scope definition and conceptual
layering, complexity management, lifecycle and risk analysis, holistic consideration and data
exploration and design space understanding.
9
De-risking the Implementation of Innovative and Sustainable Construction
Materials
Research Engineer: Ellen Grist
Academic Supervisors: Dr. Andrew Heath and Dr. Kevin Paine
Industrial Supervisors: Dr. James Norman
The high level objective of this research programme is to identify opportunities to ‗de-risk‘ the
introduction of innovative and sustainable materials in construction.
In response to a recognised need for sustainable solutions in the built environment, there is
widespread research being undertaken into the development of new ‗low-impact‘
construction materials. This project focuses on the process by which these new materials
move from the research laboratory into use on commercial construction projects. It takes the
development of ‗limecrete‘, a material with a potentially lower embodied carbon and energy
to Portland cement concrete, as a case study for investigating the process.
Two real-world ‗potential-limecrete‘ projects have been used to gather qualitative data about
the process by which clients, designers and other stakeholders consider, choose and specify
materials for buildings. Real-time project data, captured in emails, memos and reports, is
being supplemented with transcribed design-team meetings and interviews to richly
describe, and cast light on, the natural unfolding of the story.
It is appreciated that the use of any innovative technology in a commercial project
environment is risky. Risks associated with the technical performance of the new product are
significantly increased when it is transferred into a new environment, integrated into a new
system and when it has to meet the requirements of a wider range of users. There are also
significant commercial risks, with companies staking their reputation and market share on
the successful implementation of new technologies.
Moreover these case studies have thrown light on a further risk, a less tangible and more
insidious risk, that is the harmful/helpful affect of the implementation process on the people
involved. The risk that the process itself might be detrimental to the agency, optimism and
engagement of those individuals that act to shape it; and future processes.
It is envisaged that the results of this research will both further the development of limecrete
as a structural material, but also provide valuable insights into the implementation process.
Such insights will be used to identify opportunities to intervene, or to design and facilitate
social processes, with the aim of protecting both the technological outcome and the people
involved.
10
Selecting Roof Systems to Improve The Sustainability Of Buildings
Research Engineer: Phil Hampshire ([email protected]);
Academic Supervisor: Prof. Paul Goodwin ([email protected]);
Systems Supervisor: Dr Theo Tryfonas ([email protected]);
Industrial Supervisor: Celia Way ([email protected])
The contribution of the roof in the construction of any building project is all-embracing, and it
is largely undervalued. The roof is fundamental to the purpose demanded of all buildings, i.e.
their protective function. It can also provide an excellent medium for the designer‘s aesthetic
and technical skills. Despite all this is it is rarely an element of major consequence in the
overall compilation of costs and is often the subject of merciless ―value engineering‖ [1].
Research has shown that roof systems generally considered to be more sustainable by
designers often get ruled out through the value engineering process. Interviews suggest that
the reason for this is that people do not understand the need for, or value of, more
sustainable roofs. This is further reinforced by value engineering often focusing on reducing
upfront costs rather than increasing value. Consequently large chunks of value can be lost
for relatively small reductions in capital costs. Traditionally this approach has driven roof
design to be focused on providing protection from the elements (its primary function) at the
cheapest price. Thus the potential of roofs to provide other benefits has often been ignored.
It is hypothesised that through better understanding of what constitutes value for the project
and communicating the benefits of various roof systems in these terms the probability of
more sustainable roofs becoming reality will be increased. Sustainable roofs will essentially
have a higher chance of surviving the ―value engineering‖ process. Therefore the purpose of
the research is to develop a decision support framework that aligns the hard attributes of
roof systems with the softer attributes of project stakeholders‘ requirements and values. This
will enable more informed, higher value and more sustainable roof choices.
Initial data collected through surveys and workshops suggests that an approach developed
to quantify the values of project stakeholders could be useful in prioritising requirements and
understanding what factors the stakeholders consider of highest value. This values based
approach can help align the design with the thoughts of the project‘s stakeholders. The
framework has been demonstrated to be effective at engaging stakeholders in an open and
transparent way and in providing a common language from which the design can proceed.
This information and shared understanding can collectively be used to inform roof selection
and other project choices.
Once the criteria for decision making have been established, designers and clients require
quantitative data to decide which roof type represents the highest value / most sustainable
option. Again this information has to be context specific with respect to climate of the site
and the roof build-up. For consultancies designing buildings in numerous countries with
significantly different climates, collating this information for individual projects can be
problematic. This is due to the fragmented and case specific nature of the information. Thus
the research also aims to collate and map peer reviewed quantitative performance data on
the performance of roofing systems in relation to climate type. This will allow the practitioner
to be able to access reliable peer reviewed information quickly for the project context.
The research aims to draw these two threads together into an integrated framework. Initially
the framework will help provide a better understanding of what constitutes value for the
project‘s stakeholders. Then, through easily accessible and reliable performance data, along
with consideration of less tangible but important aspects designers will be able to employ
data that can be used to inform high value decision making. The benefits for the practitioner
will be appropriate and context specific roof performance data to support decision making
with respect to roof selection. The intended outcome of the work will be the ability to better
demonstrate how more sustainable roofs provide value and thus improve their delivery on
buildings.
1 G. Bateman in Coates, D. (1993). Roofs and Roofing: Design and Specification Handbook. Caithness, Whittles.
11
Measurement Systems Integration for Large Scale Manufacturing
Research Engineer: Amir KayaniI:
Academic Supervisor: Prof Paul MaropoulosIII
Industrial Supervisor: Mark SummersI; Dr Richard BurgueteII
I – Manufacturing Research & Technology, Airbus Operations Ltd, New Filton House, Filton, Bristol – BS99 7AR
II – Experimental Mechanics & Test, Airbus Operations Ltd, New Filton House, Filton, Bristol – BS99 7AR
III – Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Bath, Claverton Down, Bath – BA2 7AY
Airbus Manufacturing Research has the responsibility to analyse and integrate technologies
for the purpose of reducing lead time and improving productivity. A general principle within
Airbus for when introducing new technologies and processes is to evaluate through SQCDP
measures (i.e, safety, quality, cost, delivery & people). Typical manufacturing processes to
facilitate such development would be through increased automation and better control of
component and product conformance. So, adopting an automotive engineering approach of
manufacturing optimisation and control, thereby utilising numerical and quantitative methods
so to be able to evaluate and study component key characteristics and features i.e, through
processes such as Statistical Process Control (SPC). With this regards a key technology
utilised for purposes of product verification is dimensional metrology.
Figure 1 – Typical Wing Configuration
Figure 2 – Recent Wing Innovations
Metrology being the science of measurement is an essential process to confirm
manufacturing conformity to design as well as being a source of comparing old versus new.
In particular when looking at improvement processes then there is the need to verify
increased performance and efficiency through some key parameters. These parameters
could be defined for purposes of manufacturing performance evaluation i.e, build process
optimisation, component verification, assembly verification etc. Similarly there are key
parameters defined within design and aerodynamics requirements, which give appropriate
predictions related to optimised design solutions for improved efficiency and performance.
An example of this is figure 2, where Airbus have recently gone from a typical wingtip to a
sharklet configuration and then figure 1, gives a view of typical wing configuration and its
primary components.
In order to then verify the predicted performance improvements, there is the requirement to
have an appropriate measurement solution, whereby relevant performance parameters can
then be captured from the manufactured product and then evaluated against the
manufacturing or design models. Having looked at developing these models for both
manufacturing and design verification purposes, the research has provided some useful and
interesting learnings for at least the measurement systems integration model for the factory
manufacturing environment. However, there is ongoing work towards the evaluation of
current and future Airbus aero structures in terms of measurement data evaluation against
design criteria.
12
The Application Of System Dynamics For Sustainable Development
Research Engineer: M.J. Montgomery(1, 2) ([email protected])
Academic Supervisor: Dr S.Heslop (2) ([email protected]),
Systems Supervisor: Dr. M. Yearworth(2) ([email protected])
Industrial Supervisor: D. Pocock(1) ([email protected])
1. Halcrow Group Ltd, 1 The Square, Temple Quay, Bristol, BS1 6DG
2. University of Bristol, The Systems Centre, Merchant Ventures Building, BS1 1UQ
The need for sustainable development has been well documented especially within the built
environment. However, the definition of what sustainable development actually means has
not had such universal agreement. This is partly due to its inherent complexity (sustainable
development can require the consideration of a vast number of issues); partly due to
incomplete knowledge of the interactions and interdependencies of issues (uncertainty); and
partly due to people‘s perception of what it means to them in that context (there are multiple
perspectives).
At Halcrow, a systems thinking approach has been used to try and define sustainability in
context for our client‘s projects. The process and toolkit generated by this approach is called
HalSTAR. HalSTAR currently applies a type of ‗holistic reductionism‘, in that it narrows the
focus from an extremely wide range of issues to select context specific issues and then
assesses them separately from each other. What HalSTAR does not currently do is take
account of the complexity of the relationships between issues, i.e. how one issue affects
another over time and how these relationships can lead to systemic behaviour that can, at
times, be unpredictable and undesirable.
The focus of this research project is to identify where it is necessary to understand these
relationships, how to identify them and how to produce a process that is effective and
efficient that can be used in a project context. The hypothesis therefore is: the application of
system dynamics can help to increase the sustainable development of the built environment
through a systems approach to assessment.
This aims to increase the effectiveness of current assessment methodologies by:

addressing relationships between issues and predicting the emergent
properties of their interactions, including secondary and cumulative effects;

addressing a wider range of life cycle phases and temporal scales;

enabling the identification and effective management of inherent
uncertainties;

clarifying the implications of proposed actions to enable the development of
optimal and informed solutions;
13
Modelling the Control and Hydraulics of a Linear Friction Welding Machine at
Rolls-Royce
Research Engineer: D.T. Williams
Rolls-Royce/IDC in Systems at the University of Bath, Bath, BA2 7AY, UK
Academic Supervisor: A R Plummer
Centre for Power Transmission and Motion Control, University of Bath
Industrial Supervisor: P. Wilson
Rolls-Royce PLC. CRF, 5 Littleoak Drive, Sherwood Enterprise Park, Nottinghamshire, NG15 0GP
Linear Friction Welding (LFW) is a relatively new process adopted by aircraft engine
manufacturers operationalising new technologies to produce better value components. With
increasing fuel prices and economical drives for reducing CO2 emissions, LFW has been a
key technology in recent years for aircraft engine manufacture in both commercial and
military market sectors. For joining Blades to Discs (‗Blisks‘), LFW is the ideal process as it is
a solid state process which gives reproducibility and high quality bonds therefore improving
performance. The welding process is also more cost effective than machining Blisks from
solid billets, and a reduction in weight can also be achieved with the use of hollow blades.
The LFW process also allows dissimilar materials to be joined and a reduction in assembly
time.
The main aim of the research is to create a simulation model of a Linear Friction Welding
machine in Simulink and also apply systems thinking to fully understand the LFW process
with a view to reduce total production costs. As this EngD focuses on systems thinking, a
holistic approach will be used. The Hard Systems parts of this project will involve the
mechanics of the system and understanding relationships between the machine axes which
interact during the welding process. The Soft Systems parts will focus on the operators who
use the machine, as an understanding of the variation they introduce would also be
important to capture the true machine interactions.
The benefits of the new model include the ability to execute it in a real- time environment
with machine operation, allowing weld anomalies to be detected as (and in some cases
before) they occur, as well as the monitoring of the machine‘s condition. Therefore the
business benefits would be realised through a reduction in machine downtime enabling the
timely supply of goods providing customer value. Further benefits include the ability to
investigate new hardware upgrades to the machine offline and the modelling process will
also provide greater understanding of the complex operation of the whole system and the
welding process.
Through a combination of hard system investigation using
mathematical modelling and soft systems understanding through an action case study
intervention, a holistic model is developed.
14
Very High Frequency CMOS Voltage Controlled Oscillators
Research Engineer: Liam Boyd1,2
Academic Supervisor: Dr. Paul Warr3
Industrial Supervisor: Dr. David Enright1
Systems Supervisor: Prof. Alan Champneys4
1
Fujitsu Semiconductor Europe GmbH, Concorde Park, Concorde Road, Maidenhead, Berkshire, SL6 4FJ, UK
Systems Centre, Merchant Ventures Building, University Walk, Bristol, BS8 1TR
3
Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Queens Building, University Walk, Bristol, BS8 1TR
4
Department of Engineering Mathematics, Queens Building, University Walk, Bristol, BS8 1TR
2
The transmission frequency in communication systems is continually increasing but the
conventional CMOS (Complimentary Metal-Oxide Semiconductor) clock generation circuit
architectures that provide this carrier frequency are starting to reach a performance limit.
The key part of these architectures is the VCO (Voltage Controlled Oscillator) - for this to
achieve high frequency performance, low value inductors normally are required. However,
achieving a large tuning range, high Q, and low noise, with these inductors is extremely
difficult. To realise communication systems that transmit data at frequencies of greater than
50GHz, new VCO architectures are required.
In this project, investigation, design and testing of novel transmission-line based VCO
structures in a standard CMOS process will be required. An important part of this will involve
creating a methodology that can match simulation to laboratory results.
Prototype chips have been produced, using Fujitsu‘s 65nm process as a test vehicle. The
prototypes will not only prove simulation results, the methodology, and provide groundwork
for future designs, but will provide a learning experience, help understand the design
process, and highlight the inherent barriers, both physical and logistical, to achieving the
project goal.
15
Process and Control Development for Conformal Direct Writing onto Structural
Aerospace Parts
Research Engineer: Mau Yuen Chan(1,2),
Academic Supervisor: Paul Warr(2)
Industrial Supervisor: Jagjit Sidhu(1)
Systems Supervisor: Prof. Alan Champneys4
1.
2.
BAE Systems, Advanced Technology Centre, Bristol, BS34 7QW
University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1TR
Abstract
The term Direct Write (DW) is given to a set of technologies that have the ability to pattern
and deposit material in a freeform process. DW allows printing of functional components
directly onto the surface of a structural part which will save on weight, space and
manufacturing times which in the aerospace industry are all a driving focus.
The research is primarily aimed at improving the robustness of the DW technology. The
current aim is to demonstrate the technology within an aerospace helmet, which has
provided its own set of challenges as the shape and material of the helmet are
unconventional for receiving electronic circuitry.
The ability to produce electronics conformally makes DW a suitable technology for
functionalising structural components and it provides a unique opportunity to develop
components for innovative applications.
16
A Space Weather Forecast System at the Met Office: Early Results
Research Engineer: Alex Chartier, University of Bath / UK Met Office
Academic Supervisor: Cathryn Mitchell, University of Bath
Industrial Supervisor: David Jackson, UK Met Office
Space weather is of critical importance to the UK and European economies. Global
Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), such as the United States' Global Positioning System
(GPS) and the European Galileo system are vulnerable to the Earth's ionosphere. A 2011
report by the American Meteorological Society [1] highlighted that ionospheric Total Electron
Content (TEC) induced signal delays could cause range errors of up to 100m, even in
conditions of low solar activity. The report also examined the phenomenon of scintillation,
which can cause GNSS service interruptions. A European Union (EU) report [2] stated that,
in the EU-27 region, the proportion of the economy that depended on GNSS was
'conservatively estimated as 6-7% of the whole GDP of the European Union (ca €800 bn)
'. Other sectors vulnerable to space weather include aviation, power systems and satellite
communications.
The UK currently has no ionospheric forecasting capability. The purpose of this EngD is to
combine the ionospheric imaging expertise of the University of Bath with the data
assimilation and operational capabilities at the Met Office in order to create an ionospheric
forecast system. A system has been developed to integrate the University of Bath's imaging
software with a physics-based model of the upper atmosphere. The system's design is
modular, allowing it to assimilate ionospheric observations into any model that uses a
regular grid. This will allow future users to choose the model that best fits their operational
requirements, potentially including a future whole-atmosphere version of the Met Office's
Unified Model. The Met Office is currently developing a suite of space weather related
products. It is hoped a version of this system can be included in that suite when it has
undergone testing for robustness and accuracy.
This presentation shows early results of the data assimilation system, produced using
globally distributed GPS observations from 100 receiver sites over 2002. The system has
shown itself to be capable of combining model and observations to create an improved
estimate of the ionospheric state. The model is then able to propagate that state forward. In
addition, the inclusion of a coupled thermosphere means that one of the principal
ionospheric drivers is itself exposed to information from the observations. The assimilation
technique used here (3D-FGAT) and the use of a coupled physics-based model are both
features that do not exist in any other ionospheric forecast systems. Accurate forecasts of
the other main ionospheric drivers, principally Solar radiation and the Solar wind, are
required for accurate forecasting. In the future, deficiencies in these estimates might be
mitigated by the conversion of the scheme to an ensemble kalman filter format. This would
allow for the inclusion of driver error estimates in the forecasting process.
References
[1] – Satellite Navigation & Space Weather: Understanding the Vulnerability & Building Resilience,
Policy Workshop Report, March 2011.
[2] Impact assessment, accompanying document to the Communication of the
European Commission on Action Plan on Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Applications
June 2012.
17
Non-Structural Flood Risk Management
Research Engineer: Joseph Clarke
Academic Supervisor: Dr Dawei Han
Industrial Supervisor: Luke Lovell, Dr Jon Wicks
Systems Supervisor: Prof John Davis
Framework to Assess the Benefits of NSRs
The model summarises a framework that can be used as the basis for an assessment of the
benefits of NSRs independent of scale. It unites a hierarchical needs-based model (i.e.
linking NSRs in terms of how they manage flood risk) with a functional model that identifies
the actions that take place following the prediction of a flood (linking NSRs in with flood
warning systems), both in terms of the official emergency response and community and
individual responses. This is based on an expanded version of the Flood Warning
Responses and Benefit Pathways (FWRBP) model developed by the Flood Hazard
Research Centre (FHRC) at Middlesex University.
Barriers to Assessing the Benefits of NSRs at a National Scale
There are a number of issues that make it difficult to appraise the benefits of NSRs at a
national scale. The first is a lack of generalizable data, as figures have not been collected for
a significant period of time and measures have not matured enough to be able to study their
whole lifecycle. This leads to the second issue: unknown future performance. This is
compounded by issues of ownership: while flood defences are maintained by the
Environment Agency or other authorities, property-level protection is currently passed on to
households, and land management measures rely on continued cooperation from
landowners. Planning and development control has a delayed benefit that may be reversed
by a future planning decision. The relatively recent realisation that NSRs may play an
important role in reducing flood risk also means that current national-scale methods are
completely aimed at quantifying the benefits of assets (i.e. flood defences). This makes it
difficult to fully incorporate NSRs into these methods: they have to be ‗bolted on‘ to existing
outputs. For example, it is assumed that flood defences that are operated or put in place
when a flood is predicted are always operated in a timely fashion. In reality, this process
depends on effective flood detection and forecasting systems.
18
ICT Investment as an Enabler for Urban Sustainability
Research Engineer: Ellie Cosgrave
Academic supervisor: Theo Tryfonas
Systems Supervisor: John Davis
Industrial Supervisor: Volker Buscher, Arup
The ‗information age‘ has driven a significant shift in nearly all aspects of modern life. In the
past decade we have seen a fundamental change in the way we work (networking through
social media, distance working etc.), how we shop (online, price comparison), interact with
family and friends (skype, social media), and our expectations of government (FixMyStreet,
opendata). It has also heralded a new era of activism and community unity. ―In the Arab
Spring, social media facilitated action in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region,
providing a free and accessible method of organising and coordinating demonstrations‖[1].
This was echoed in the London riots and the subsequent cleanup operation [2].
―The networked information environment has dramatically transformed the marketplace,
creating new modes and opportunities for how we produce and consume information‖ [3].
Companies like Facebook, Amazon and Google have capitalized on this opportunity by
using information to provide value to their customers. These companies utilize information as
a core asset, and leverage it to create products and services that respond to user desires
and expectations. The current ‗information marketplace‘ in cities already creates value for
citizens as highlighted in recent reports such as ―Information Marketplaces: The New
Economics of Cities‖ [4]. Innovative products and services create jobs and support citizens in
navigating and using the city in effective, educational and enjoyable ways. However the true
value has not yet been quantified or captured by city leaders. Governments are struggling to
realize the opportunities offered by ubiquitous information, ‗smart‘ technologies, social
media, and anytime, anywhere access. They are unable to articulate the value of the market
within their own city, let alone the ‗value chain‘ [5] in term of inputs, outputs and outcomes
for citizens. In an interview, Emer Colemnan (Deputy Director Digital Engagement
Government Digital Services at the Cabinet Office) explained, ―this requires new leadership
from the public sector. Data surfaces political decisions.‖
Figure 1:
Grounded model of smart city policy and implementation concepts.
The model in figure 1 shows two core influencing features which are; the ―challenges and
opportunities‖ and the concept of ―public value‖. These two factors form the context for any
government action, and should be specifically articulated and continually explored. To
respond to these two factors, governments act in two ways. Firstly they create policy goals
which are intended to set investment priorities. These policy goals are explicitly or implicitly
responding to local challenges and opportunities, as well as attempting to create public
value. Secondly, city leaders intervene with solutions. Likewise, these respond to the core
influencers in the system, and, through the tackling of these influencers, are intended to
achieve policy goals.
19
Making appropriate investment decisions in the complex city environment requires long and
short term local goals to be balanced with local, national and international-interest policies.
For city leaders, this complexity is further compounded by the huge advancements in the
ICT industry, which has fundamentally shifted the citizen behaviour, expectations, and the
economy. Devising solution programmes that will work effectively within this system, as well
as respond to global calls for emissions reductions will be the defining feature in local
governance in the next ten years.
Kenna, M. ―Social media: following EU public diplomacy and friending MENA‖, European Policy Centre,
Policy brief, July 2011.
[1]
Bright, P. ―How the London riots showed us two sides of social networking‖, available at:
http://arstechnica.com/techpolicy/news/2011/08/the-two-sides-of-social-networking-ondisplay-in-the-londonriots.ars, September 2011.
[2]
Kazman,R. Chen, H. (2009) the metropolis model: a new logic for development of corwdsourced systems,
Communications of The ACM, 2009.
[3]
Webb, M et al. ―Information Marketplaces: the new economics of cities‖, The Climate Group, Arup,
Accenture, Horizon, London, December 2011.
[4]
[5]
Mulligan, C. ―The Communications Industries in the Era of Convergence‖, Routledge, 2011.
20
Use and Embedding of Systems Practice in the Rolls-Royce Defence
Aerospace UK Product Lifecycle: The Appreciation and Use of Systems
Practice
Research Engineer: C N Dunford1,2
Academic Supervisor: Prof. Patrick Godfrey1
Systems Supervisor: Dr. Mike Yearworth1
Industrial Supervisor: Dr. Darren York2
1
2
Industrial Doctorate Centre in Systems, University of Bristol, BS8 1UB
Rolls-Royce plc, PO Box 3, Filton, Bristol, BS34 7QE
Systems Practice is a focus for capability improvement efforts in Rolls-Royce plc. It is
recognised to enable quality in the creation of products (Dunford et al. in press). In the
company Systems Practice in the engineering domain is divided into three parts: (i)
Systems Engineering is focused on problem understanding, and requirements capture and
verification; (ii) Robust Design is focused on solution definition, integration and optimisation;
(iii) Lean Six-Sigma is focused on process improvement. Company training is available and
often mandated in all three areas though the three parts are not universally recognised as an
integrated package.
This research is using the Action Research Spiral of planning, acting, observing and
reflecting as described by Lewin (1946) and depicted in the conference poster last year
(Dunford et al. 2011) as its framework. The completion of the first spiral in the planned two
spirals of research has provided a rigorous grounding for the interventions in the company
that will be focus for the second spiral of research.
A grounded theory study of engineers one month after completing the internal five-day
training course found that engineers found it ―challenging to adopt Systems Practice
because of: (i) Lack of stakeholder appreciation of its value, (ii) Their lack of experience with
Systems Engineering, and (iii) Logistical issues with its application‖ (Dunford et al. in press,
p.2). In support of these findings further interviews with engineers on their use of Systems
Practice in packages of work has shown Systems practice is of value; the use of Systems
Practice does generally provide benefit and either saves time overall on the project or, if not,
is recognised as being of significant benefit to the project (Dunford et al. 2012, p.153). An
annual survey of all current employees that have completed the training course also showed
that experience with Systems Practice does improve application (Dunford et al. 2012, p.153154). The same survey identified three major logistical issues with using Systems Practice:
(i) finding a time when everyone was available for workshops, (ii) finding relevant examples
to reuse and (iii) keeping complete records of understanding gained from use.
References
Dunford, C.N., Godfrey, P., Yearworth, M., York, D.M., 2011. The Use and Embedding of Systems Practice in
nd
the Rolls-Royce Defence Product Lifecycle: My Research Methodology – A Soft System. The 2 Annual
Research Conference for EngD in Systems, 24-25 May 2011, Bristol. Bristol: Systems Centre, University of
Bristol.
Dunford, C.N., Yearworth, M., York, D.M. and Godfrey, P., (in press) A View of Systems Practice: Enabling
Quality in Design. Journal of Systems Engineering. (Accepted for publication April 2012)
Dunford, C.N., Yearworth, M., Godfrey, P., York, D.M. and Parsley, A., 2012. 2012 IEEE International Systems
Conference Proceedings, 19-22 March 2012, Vancouver, Canada. Piscataway, NJ: IEEE, pp.148-155.
Lewin, K., 1946. Action Research and Minority Problems. Journal of Social Issues, 2(4), pp.34-46.
21
The Design of Permanent Magnet Motors for Electric Vehicle Applications
Research Engineer: James Goss(1,2),
Academic Supervisor: Prof. Phil Mellor(1), Dr. Rafal Wrobel(1)
Systems Supervisor: Prof Alan Champneys(1)
Industrial Supervisor: Dr. Dave Staton(2)
1.
2.
Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, University of Bristol, BS8 1TR
Motor Design Ltd, 4 Scotland Street, Ellesmere, Shropshire, SY12 0EG
Background
Brushless permanent magnet (PM) motors are a preferred topology in the rapidly growing
area of electric vehicle traction due to their inherent high efficiencies and excellent power
densities. A set of computer aided design tools are used in the design of these machines to
model and optimise the electrical, electromagnetic, thermal and mechanical characteristics
of the design. During this project we have used an ethnographic approach to investigate the
design process, this has led to the development of a commercial design tool currently being
tested with lead users as well as the creation of a design methodology that utilises the CAD
tools developed and distributed by Motor-Design Ltd
Design Tool Development
A key part of the design process is consideration of performance across the entire
operational envelope that commonly includes a field weakening region. However the
optimisation of a design over this performance envelope can be challenging as all
commercial CAD tools only provide analysis of performance at individual operating points.
We have developed a computationally efficient modelling technique that enables rapid and
accurate evaluation of performance over the entire operating envelope. The method allows
the design engineer to generate torque/speed characteristics as well as efficiency and loss
maps which can be effectively incorporated into an iterative design process. The proposed
approach is based on the classical d-q phasor model combined with a non-linear constrained
maximisation algorithm and simple polynomial expressions for flux linkage and loss. The
required parameters for the analysis are obtained from a reduced set of 2D finite element
field solutions. These are used to account for the non-linearity of the direct and quadrature
axis flux linkages caused by saturation and cross coupling effects, and to enable efficient
and accurate loss modelling. This approach was presented at the IET Power Electronics,
Machines and Drives conference in March 2012. These techniques have been developed
into a commercial software design tool; this is currently undergoing beta testing with some
lead users and will be released as a product in the near future.
Design Methodology
We have developed a design methodology the aim is to provide a clear, rigorous and
scientific approach to the design of AC PM electric motors for traction applications utilising a
number of modern CAD design tools. Throughout this project it has become increasingly
clear that electric motor design is not simply an objective calculation and as such the
develop methodology allows flexibility to accommodate for the intuition and experience of the
design engineer as well as constraints or goals that cannot simply be expressed within the
technical specification. Using this methodology three PM motors with different pole/slot
combinations have been designed for a small electric vehicle specification. These are
currently being manufactured and will be used to provide comprehensive validation data for
our electromagnetic and thermal modelling techniques.
22
Design optimisation through an integrated approach to parametric modelling
and computational methods.
Research Engineer: John E. Harding ([email protected])(1&2),
Academic supervisor: Paul Shepherd ([email protected])(1),
Industrial supervisor: Duncan Horswill ([email protected])(2)
1. Department of Architecture and Civil Engineering, University of Bath, BA2 7AY
2. Ramboll UK, Bristol, BS1 4QP
Parametric modelling tools have opened up new possibilities for building design problems,
enabling novel geometries to be generated in a relatively short time span. Such tools utilise
a graph representation enabling the designer to construct associations between parameters
and geometrical functions in order to quickly model designs within a set of constraints.
Adjusting parameters top-down in combination with feedback from analysis software
facilitates design exploration by evaluating each design against a set of requirements. Such
a process can in part be automated by using multi-objective optimisation so long as the
‗body-plan‘ of the design option can be adequately represented (De Landa, 2002) and
design constraints and objectives are both constant and lie within measureable metric.
In reality however such an approach is inedequate at the conceptual stage because initial
constraints and objectives rarely stay constant – early stage design is a wicked problem
(Kurtz & Snowden, 2003) involving multiple stakeholders. In addition, some stakeholder
objectives often cannot be defined by a common metric (e.g. aesthetics) and must be
incorporated as soft elemets in any decision support system. This research then questions
whether parametric tools are the best modelling vehicle for design exploration at the early
stage due to their inherent inflexibility and dependence on top-down graph manipulation by a
single individual. Alternatives design systems that are complex, adaptive and capable of
exploring multiple building typologies with multiple forms of representation are therefore the
topic of study in this research.
References:
Kurtz, C.F., Snowden, D.J., 2003. The new dynamics of strategy: sense-making in a complex and complicated
world, IBM Systems Journal, Vol. 42, Issue 3, pp.462-483.
De Landa, M., 2002. Deleuze and the Use of the Genetic Algorithm in Architecture, Designing for a Digital World.
Ed., Neil Leach. Chichester: Wiley-Academy, pp.117-120.
23
The Portability of the Legacy Enterprise IT applications to the Cloud: A
business value adding exercise or an over budget migration exercise
Research Engineer: I.K. Azeemi ([email protected]) (1,2,3),
Academic Supervisor: N. Piercy ([email protected] ) (2)
Systems Supervisor: T. Tryfonas (3)
Industrial Supervisor: S. Davies (1),
1
Capgemini UK, No.1 Forge End, Woking, Surrey GU21 6DB
School of Management, University of Bath, Bath BA2 7AY
3
System Centre, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1UB
2
Cloud computing has transformed ways for organisations to explore new business models
along with achieving efficiency in operation, resource consumption and staff utilisation.
(Vouk, 2008; Briscoe and Marinos, 2009; Haynie, 2009; Schubert, Jeffery and NeideckerLutz 2010; Chang et al. (2010 a; Chang, Wills, De Roure, 2010 b). In order to achieve these
benefits many organisations requires efficiently porting legacy applications to cloud for
leveraging existing competitiveness while reaping benefits of cloud. (Xin Meng 2011). Chang
et al. (2010 a; Chang, Wills, De Roure, 2010 b) identified Portability as one of the challenges
and used this term to describe moving the entire application services to clouds and between
different clouds.
Chang et al. (2010 c) argued that existing enterprise applications are used by many
collaborators. They have their own business and technical preference for adoption of cloud.
A further challenge is integration between different providers, as it often requires additional
APIs or in some cases porting of further applications. In most cases portability task over
balances the budget (Xin Meng 2011). For financial services and organisations that have not
yet migrated to applications to the cloud, portability involves a lot of investment in terms of
outsourcing, including rewriting APIs. Hence it is regarded as a business challenge (Chang
et al. 2011 a) and makes it an interesting research question. (Beaty K et., 2009; Patterson D,
Armbrust M et al. 2009) Little academic work has been done to investigate the factors
involved in cloud portability. (Ali et al., 2011)
In an early work Dibbern et al. (2004) argued that IT outsourcing is ―nothing more than a
pendulum‖. They argued that organisations start with internal IS departments and move to
outsourcing considering it more beneficial. After multiple unsatisfactory experiences based
on poor service levels, cost and/or change in strategy; organisations bring the IT systems
back in-house (Overby 2003). Ali et al. (2011) appreciated cloud‘s self-service model and
contractual flexibilities as key differences between cloud computing and IT outsourcing.
However they argued that cloud computing will be ―another swing in the IT outsourcing
pendulum‖ unless organisation consider risks during their decision making process. We
argue that organisation can avoid this by focusing on business competitiveness. Portability
for competitiveness requires the concept of Business Technology. Using this concept
business can avoid pendulum swing and reap more benefits by using an outside-in view
(Mulholland 2011).
The purpose of this study is to explore whether ―the Portability of the Legacy Enterprise IT
applications to cloud adds business value or it is a complex over budget migration exercise‖.
We will focus on public sector organisations using case studies resulting in a paper with
architectural principles to port enterprise IT applications to the cloud. At this stage in the
research Portability can be defined generally as migration of the legacy applications to the
cloud. We will look at application portability from both outside-in and inside-out perspectives
(Mulholland 2011).
Although there is literature available on innovation and technology lifecycle, earlier research
for portability is very limited and it is very focused on small applications. Chang (2011 d)
used ―Case Study‖ as it is a commonly used method to support research frameworks, and
24
provides added values for research challenges. We have plans to use interpretivist paradigm
using case study method. We do not expect to generalise these as this type of analysis is
context dependent and it represents how businesses and customers respond to different
situations. Each case study will be different and will not be compared directly due to different
strategies used.
References

Ali Khajeh-Hosseini, Ian Sommerville, Jurgen Bogaerts and Pradeep Teregowda,
"Decision Support Tools for Cloud Migration in the Enterprise", IEEE 4th International Conference on Cloud
Computing, 2011

Briscoe G and Marinos A, ―Digital ecosystems in the clouds: towards community cloud
rd
computing‖, the 3 IEEE International Conference on Digital Ecosystems and Technologies, June 1-3, 2009,
New York, USA, pp. 103-108.

Chang V, Bacigalupo D., Wills G., Roure D D., ―A Categorisation of Cloud Computing
Business Models‖, poster paper, CCGrid 2010 IEEE conference, Melbourne, Australia, May 2010 (Chang et al.,
2010 a).

Chang V, Wills G, De Roure D, ―A Review of Cloud Business Models and
Sustainability‖, IEEE Cloud 2010, the third International Conference on Cloud Computing, 5-10 July 2010, Miami,
Florida, USA (Chang, Wills and De Roure, 2010 b)

Chang V, Gary Wills1, Robert John Walters, "Towards Business Integration as a
Service 2.0", IEEE 8th International Conference on e-Business Engineering (ICEBE), 2011 (Chang, Wills and
Walters, 2010 c)

Chang V, De Roure D and Wills G Walters (2011) Case Studies and Organisational
Sustainability Modelling presented by Cloud Computing Business Framework. International Journal of Web
Services Research, Vol.8, No.3, 2011. (Chang et al., 2011 d).

Dibbern J., Goles T., Hirschheim R., and Jayatilaka B., ―Information systems
outsourcing: a survey and analysis of the literature,‖ ACM SIGMIS Database, vol. 35, Nov. 2004, pp. 6-102.

Haynie M, ―Enterprise cloud services: Deriving business value from Cloud Computing,‖
Micro Focus, Tech. Rep., 2009.

Mulholland A. (Global Chief Technology Officer & Corporate Vice President), "The
Cloud: Time for Delivery", 2011, http://www.capgemini.com/insights-and-resources/by-publication/the-cloud-timefor-delivery/?d=1

Overby S., ―Outsourcing: Bringing IT Back Home,‖ CIO, 2003.

Schubert L, Jeffery K and Neidecker-Lutz B, ―The Future for Cloud Computing:
Opportunities for European Cloud Computing Beyond 2010‖, Expert Group report, public version 1.0, January
2010.

Vouk M A, ―Cloud Computing – Issues, Research and Implementations‖, Journal of
Computing and Information Technology - CIT 16, page 235–246, Volume 4, 2008.

Xin Meng, Jingwei Shi, Xiaowei Liu, Huifeng Liu, and Lian, ―Legacy Application
Migration to Cloud‖, IEEE 4th International Conference on Cloud Computing, 2011
25
A Study of the Relationship between Engineering Design and Dimensional
Metrology
Research Engineer: Per Saunders(1,2)
Academic Supervisor: Prof. Paul Maropoulos(2)
Systems Supervisor: Prof. Andrew Graves(3)
Industrial Supervisor: Nick Orchard(1),
1
Manufacturing Technology, Rolls-Royce plc, Bristol, BS34 7QE
Faculty of Engineering & Design, University of Bath, BA2 7AY
3
School of Management, University of Bath, BA2 7AY
2
This research aims to contribute to theory and practice by exploring how verification issues
can be considered early in the design process of manufactured components.
The literature indicates that there is room to improve communication between design and
measurement. Design intent may be incompletely and ambiguously communicated to
verification planners. Likewise, verification constraints may be inadequately communicated
to design. As a result, components may be released to manufacturing that contain features
that are costly, or even impossible, to verify. This can have a number of consequences:




Unnecessary design iterations
Concessions, re-work, or scrap when components cannot be made to conform to
specification
Excessive verification performed on non-critical features
Increased risk of accepting non-conforming parts, with consequent risk of products
underperforming, or in-service product failure
In other words, inadequate communication between design and measurement results in
churn in the business; in the extreme, it could lead to product failure. If communication of
design intent and verification constraints were improved between design and
measurement, potential problems would be caught early, allowing people to concentrate on
the most value-adding activities.
A set of standardised verification methods will be identified and collated. A demonstration
tool will be developed to assess the measurability of a design at a feature-level, and to
assess which methods are most suitable based a number of criteria, including tolerance,
cost, and criticality to design. The tool will focus on methods for coordinate measurement
machines, to answer questions such as the perennial ―how many points do I need to
measure this hole?‖
Despite the integral nature of measurement in manufacturing, most research in this area has
focused on specific topics such as tolerance design, design definition, inspection planning,
or measurement technology. By taking advantage of the company‘s experience with a broad
range of component types, it is expected that patterns will be discerned to gain new insight
into the relationship between the relevant fields of knowledge.
By applying a new methodology that will be developed with the theory, the EngD aims to
demonstrate that a higher proportion of components can be designed in a way that
recognises verification constraints, and that they can then be verified using standardised
methods. This will reduce churn, and ultimately reduce lifecycle costs.
26
A Systems Investigation into the Coordination of a Fleet of Autonomous
Vehicles
Research Engineer: Richard Simpson ([email protected])
Industrial Supervisor: Dr. James Revell ([email protected])
Academic Supervisor: Dr. Arthur Richards ([email protected])
Systems Supervisor: Dr. Anders Johansson ([email protected])
Commanders of multi-asset forces require a current and accurate picture to plan tactical
missions or address emergency situations. This picture is generated from the aggregate of
intelligence reports originating from electronic surveillance or human reconnaissance.
Examples of organisations that require this include the military [2], blue forces (police, fire,
ambulance), covert surveillance organisations and search and rescue organisations. The
commanders would often need to communicate and share this picture with other
commanders to coordinate their actions in the most efficient manner. It contains the position,
trajectory and status of each asset such as a solider, tank, policeman, fire engine or
helicopter. It also contains, the position, trajectory and state of uncontrolled agents such as
enemy forces, criminals, rioters, fires and floods. The resulting picture may be uncertain due
to the accuracy and noisy characteristics of electronic sensors such as radar, or due to the
uncertainty of human judgement. It is important that each commander receives and
communicates an identical or similar picture, so that actions can be coordinated without
conflict. This is known as having a common operating picture (COP).
A COP can be formed by simply plotting the position and state of objects on a map at the
time the event occurred. However, as the map becomes populated, it becomes crowded and
confusing, especially if the map contains similar objects crossing paths constantly. By
associating object positions together and fusing the trajectory and state information, the
COP can be simplified and compressed without losing accuracy and fidelity. There has been
much research conducted for the problem of data fusion and association for target tracking
[1].
Previous work that I have conducted at BAE Systems Advanced Technology Centre (ATC)
focused on building a COP for a battlefield scenario which included a group of soldiers and
unmanned ground sensors with limited data communications range observing possible
threats whilst moving through the terrain. A soldier or sensor may record the position and
state of a threat and wirelessly communicate this to others for automatic COP generation.
Using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo Data Association (MCMCDA) algorithm [4], threat
reports were associated together to form tracks of each threat. Once a successful track
association has been created, the data was fused together to form a filtered and smoothed
track of the objects trajectory and current state. However, unlike traditional tracking
problems, my research focused on combining uncertain auxiliary information about an object
such as its colour, size, object type and alliance to aid association by creating a rich picture
of the situation with the uncertainty of such data being modelled.
The future military battlespace may contain a mixture of traditional military assets in addition
to the new generation of unmanned and autonomous vehicles (UxVs). To reduce operator
burden and increase efficiency, the coordination of UxVs will become semi-autonomous initself. Mission planning systems are being developed that can autonomously make decisions
on the activities for a group of UxVs to achieve a common goal specified by the operator.
Examples of mission goals for UxVs include search & rescue, target surveillance and marine
mine-countermeasures [3]. My research objectives for the remainder of this EngD are to
explore a problem situation where a fleet of UxVs are being coordinated to achieve a
common goal. An aspect of this system will be investigated using systems thinking
techniques to understand the external influences, emergent behaviours, components and
boundaries. Previous work that I have conducted on building a COP may be developed and
applied to this problem. Furthermore, research can then commence on other aspects of
coordinating a fleet of UxVs. Examples include localisation, navigation, object classification,
platform health monitoring and mission planning systems.
27
References
[1] Y Bar-Shalom and T Fortmann. Tracking and Data Association, volume 179. Mathematics in Science and
Engineering, Academic
Press, Inc., 1987.
[2] MOD DSTL. Innovation in ISTAR. Technical Report 1, MOD Centre for Defence Enterprise, 2012.
[3] Jane's Navy International. Standing o_ a step at a time. IHS Global Limited, August 2011.
[4] S Oh, S Russell, and S Sastry. Markov chain monte carlo data association for general multiple-target tracking
problems. In
Decision and Control, 2004. CDC. 43rd IEEE Conference on, volume 1, pages 735{742. IEEE, 2004.
_BAE Systems, Advanced Technology Centre, Sowerby Building, Filton, Bristol, BS34 7QW
yUniversity of Bristol, Queen's Building, University Walk, Clifton, Bristol, BS8 1TR
28
How does an organisation like CFMS contribute to a paradigm change in
engineering simulation?
Research Engineer: Hayley Spence ([email protected]);
Academic Supervisor: Chris McMahon ([email protected]);
Industrial Supervisor: Martin Aston ([email protected]);
Systems Supervisor: Patrick Godfrey ([email protected]).
This engineering doctorate is looking at engineering simulation in the context of human,
social and business development. It combines philosophical and sociological study of
progress with applied qualitative research. For the applied research I am using a grounded
approach to reveal specific areas and topics for simulation development in the UK advanced
engineering industry. The work is being carried out in conjunction with CFMS, an
independent, not-for-profit company committed to accelerating the affordability, capability
and usability of design and analysis processes. Both the philosophical consideration and the
applied research output help inform CFMS‘s agenda and organisational development.
This research has come about because CFMS envisages radically improved design and
analysis processes for UK business and industry that will strengthen the UK‘s engineering
industry and economic base. CFMS are building their business model around this vision, and
hope that my research can help this in both a practical and theoretical way. As well as
CFMS‘s investment in the project, it is shaped by my interest in the development of
engineering practices toward those that enable greater fulfilment for the engineer and create
engineering product that supports human freedom and evolution.
So far, focus has been centred on the organisational development of CFMS and developing
an appropriate research methodology. A pilot study for the qualitative research project has
been completed and is to be followed by a year-long study that will ground theoretical
outputs of the project. The main study aims to interview approximately 60 people from
across the UK advanced engineering industry in the following sectors: Aerospace &
Defence; Automotive & Motorsport; Research, Funding & Strategy; Information &
Communications Technology; and Infrastructure. It is planned for the research to be
published as a series of white papers. For my thesis, my philosophical and sociological
argument is being developed through literature review.
29
Modelling an Engineering Organisation as a Complex Adaptive System in
Order to Assess Engineering Processes
Research Engineer: Jim Stamp, University of Bristol [email protected], Thales UK
[email protected]
Academic Supervisor: Dr Mike Yearworth, University of Bristol
[email protected]
Industrial Supervisor: Roger Ingle, Thales UK [email protected]
Keywords: Cybernetics; Complexity; Complex Adaptive Systems; Agent-Based Modelling;
Engineering Development Processes;
Today‘s engineering market environment provides a rich, complex, backdrop against which
our industry has to deliver product and services.
These complex environments pose issues for the processes used to develop and deliver
customer value and ultimately the return on our investment. To maximise both value and
profit, a clear understanding of process suitability is required.
This piece of research has been designed to assess the suitability of a range of development
processes against different market and technological environmental conditions.
Using a cybernetics-derived model of an organisation, an agent-based simulation has been
designed as a test-bed for different development processes. By using the Viable Systems
Model (VSM) a ‗perfect organisation‘ can be used as a reference for testing the modelled
processes against a variety of market and technology landscapes.
The fractal nature of the VSM lends itself to an agent-based model, and at its core is a
complex adaptive system, hence, as an architecture, optimally suited as a base framework
for the simulation work. Whilst not modelling a specific organisation, and hence not
attempting to make predictions, we predict that as a reference framework the model should
illustrate differences in process suitability.
Work to date has created the framework that allows the modelling of organisations of any
size. These organisations are then allocated aims and objectives that are used as a test
function, against which to optimise in a modelled environment. The environment models the
technology, or solution, space as a static ‗physically possible‘ landscape, over which a
dynamic marketing landscape is projected. The marketing landscape can be both measured
and affected by the agents as they traverse the two surfaces. Fitness is measured by
allocating ‗profit‘ as a function of the technology and market landscapes; agents must hillclimb on the solution landscape to reach optima in the market landscape.
By adjusting the parametric definition of the marketing function we can control the dynamics
of the landscape and hence model characteristics of different markets. Low rolling hills are
analogous to slow moving, mature markets, while fast transitioning mountainous peaks can
be equated to new, erratic markets. Markets of different characteristics can be included in a
single scenario (‗geographically‘ separated) to allow agents to optimise against/search for a
preferred market type.
We aim to triangulate the findings of the modelling through the use of secondary data
collected from projects across the company. We will be categorising projects by
development process and requirement/architecture model complexity. We will test for
correlations in budget variance against the findings from the modelled projects/processes.
A standalone case study of a project trialling the Scrum process will also be undertaken. We
hope to use this as a primary data set for the triangulation of the modelling work.
30
The research is supported by a set of smaller, related, studies looking into issues
surrounding crossfunctional boundaries within engineering processes and the use of openinnovation to promote variety in the organisation‘s product backlog. A preliminary survey for
the former has already been analysed as part of the IEMS Unit, and will be extended this
year.
31
An Integration Architecture For Communication Systems Network Modelling
Research Engineer: Duncan Tait
Academic Supervisor: Prof. Dave Cliff
Industrial Supervisor: Dr. Andrew Gillespie
The Systems Centre, Faculty of Engineering, University of Bristol, Queen‘s Building, University Walk, BS8 1TR
The purpose of this research is to apply the principles of communication network simulation
to radio networks, as well as other network types deployed and integrated by Thales, whilst
investigating complex behaviour exhibited by these, and large-scale radio networks in
general. This involves the implementation of a simulation architecture alongside the
investigation of complex emergent behaviour from the dynamic forming of large-scale radio
networks with only limited resources available to them (e.g. bandwidth, number of channels),
and other complex network systems such as novel Ethernet topologies.
In order that the required large-scale simulations are computationally tractable, the models
of the network components themselves need to be greatly abstracted – and getting the level
of abstraction right in order to conserve the key behaviour of the network while curtailing
computation time is a key challenge. Using SimPy[1], an existing open-source simulation
tool for Python, abstractions of various radio protocols have been modelled. A second and
third generation version of an HF radio protocol have been modelled and compared within
an architectural framework. This architecture, designed modularly using the OSI stack[2] as
a basis, is written in SimPy and enables interchangeable models of different levels of the
OSI stack. In a paper submitted to the IRST IET 2012 Conference, it is shown that the
second-generation protocol performs poorly in a ‗mesh‘ style topology in comparison to the
third-generation protocol – more often used in tactical radio networks, but that there is no
significant advantage to using third-generation over second-generation for ‗hub-and-spoke‘
style networks where communication is generally only between paired nodes – and is less of
a free-for-all situation. Simulation of other network types such as Ethernet – using novel
switching topologies has been undertaken using the network simulator 3 (ns-3) tool[3], this
work is in preliminary stages at present.
References
[1] http://simpy.sourceforge.net/
[2] Lawniczak, A., Gerisch, A., & Di Stefano, B. (2005). OSI Network-layer Abstraction: Analysis of Simulation
Dynamics and Performance Indicators. Science of Complex Networks From Biology to the Internet and WWW,
776, 166-200.
[3] http://nsnam.org
32
Multidisciplinary Coupling
Research Engineer: Christian Agostinelli (1)
Academic Supervisor: Prof. C.B. Allen (2)
Industrial Supervisor: Dr. Abdul Rampurawala (3)
1
Industrial Doctorate Centre (IDC) in Systems, University of Bristol, BS8 1UB, [email protected]
Department of Aerospace Engineering, University of Bristol, BS8 1UB, [email protected]
3
CFMS Ltd
2
Wing design is a complex engineering task. Due to conflicting sets of requirements, the final
design is the result of an iterative process, and within a large aircraft manufacturer design
process, which is the context of this research, each loop requires a long time. This is due to
the presence of interfaces, either physical or organisational, and long computational time
required for calculations, such as high-fidelity Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD). At an
early stage of the design, long computational time becomes relevant especially during
optimisation when repeated function calls are made to explore the design space, and an
optimisation is driven by time and budget constraints, or ends when a ``satisfactory'' design
is obtained. Moreover, each high-fidelity CFD evaluation (job) that requires High
Performance Computing (HPC) resources has to deal with a queuing system due to the high
number of jobs submitted by the users in the organisation. A wing designer performs CFD
based optimisation to match a high-speed wing target load that is related to top level aircraft
requirements. The standard approach is known as ``trial and error'', but for existing airplanes
cruising at transonic speeds, drag reduction or an increase of drag rise Mach number can be
achieved with small shape modifications which are difficult to catch with a ``trial and error''
procedure. Moreover, new transport aircraft wings are very flexible and a ``rigid''
aerodynamic design that doesn't take into account flexibility can lead to expensive
modifications at a later stage of the design. Following these considerations, there's a need
for rapid computational methods with a level of fidelity as close as possible to high-fidelity
CFD that include flexibility effects.
The time independent interaction between aerodynamics and solid mechanics is known as
static aeroelasticity or static coupling. Problems addressed by this technical field are of an
undesirable character leading to loss of design efficiency, effectiveness (e.g. control
effectiveness), or to structural failure (e.g. divergence). The research presented here
focuses on the effects of flexibility on design efficiency.
Although there's a large amount of literature on aerodynamic there are few, if any, general
MDO methods that fit into the design process of a large aircraft manufacturer. The purpose
of this investigation is to develop a method to optimise wing twist, taking into account
flexibility effects at an early stage of the design in the industrial context of a large aircraft
manufacturer wing design process, and assess benefits.
References:
Hicks, R.M. & Henne, P.A. (1978). ―Wing Design by Numerical Optimisation‖. Journal of Aircraft, vol. 15, pp. 407412.
Balling, R.J. & Sobieszczanski-Sobieski, J., ―Optimization of Coupled Systems: A Critical Overview of
Approaches‖, AIAA Journal, vol 34, no. 1, pp. 6-17
33
Cyber Defence Technologies and Architectures
Research Engineer: Richard Craig
Industrial Supervisors: Mr Shane Bennison, Mr Andrew Owen
Academic Supervisors: Dr. Theo Tryfonas (Academic), Dr John May (Systems)
Information and the ability to share it rapidly over an infrastructure to enable decisionmaking, plays a paramount role in the operations of business, militaries and
governments. While the technical skills set required to understand and operate within the
cyber domain are significantly different to the other global commons, existing norms, rules,
logic, ideas and concepts are transferable directly or through analogy. Cyber threats are a
complex multi-domain problem where actions may be conducted with disproportionate
influence due to a technological advantage. As with the other domains, actors with intention
interact with elements (across boundary domains and cyber specific), trying to accomplish
goals. Interactions between system elements and inter-relationships may also give rise to
emergent and unintended consequences due to dynamic systematic causes.
The aim of information security is to ensure business continuity by mitigating interruptions to
infrastructure. To understand how the cyber domain supports activity and decision making
requires an understanding of the infrastructure and process requirements, use and function,
system dynamics of each domain and the inter-relationship with the cyber domain. To
address the problem of cyber security capability, the core aspect of a systems thinking
approach is to view a bigger picture (up a level of abstraction) to appreciate other
perspectives and understand system intention. Understanding requirements for usability,
visualisation and information integration requires the engagement of stakeholders, the
alignment of need and workflow, impact on process and the C2 command structure, and a
change management process.
To build a collaborative environment, with shared situational awareness, visualised across
domain perspectives, the capabilities and expectations of such a system must be known and
value conveyed to engage stakeholders. Through and understanding of the system, the
elements and interactions, a common information system can be developed to allow
collaborative real time interaction with information to aid decision making and knowledge
discovery across domains and perspectives. To limit bias and perspective as the ‗expert
model builder‘, a multi methodology approach to understanding stakeholder requirements
and perspectives will ensure the model is aligned and fit for purpose with the decision
making culture, provides robust analytical insight against business case requirements, and is
flexible to capture adaptive behaviour.
34
Developing a Method of In—Process Inspection for Carbon-Fibre Reinforced
Polymers Lay-up
Research Engineer: Dennis Crowley
Academic Supervisors: Prof. Kevin Potter, Dr. Carwyn Ward
Industrial Supervisors: Dr. Kevyn Jonas, Nigel Jennings, Renishaw plc.
Systems Supervisor: Dr. Oksana Kasyutich
Composite materials, such as carbon fibre reinforced plastics (CFRP) are increasingly used
within a variety of industries. Their manufacture differs substantially from metallic and other
structures as the process generates the material and geometric properties in a single
operation. There is requirement to position the fibre reinforcement accurately and free of
defects, meaning that quality control is extremely important. At present the quality control
step is carried out after most of the part‘s value has been added and re-work and repair is
difficult, if not impossible. This project proposes a method of intervening earlier in the
manufacturing cycle to capture defects before further value-adding operations.
35
A Systems Approach to Smart Grids
Research Engineer: Saraansh Dave 1,2
Academic Supervisor: Mike Yearworth 2
Industrial Supervisor: Mahesh Sooriyabandara 1
1Toshiba Research Europe Ltd, Telecommunications Research Laboratory, Bristol
2University of Bristol, Industrial Doctorate Centre in Systems
This project aims to apply agent-based modelling as a scientific method [1] to investigate the
sociotechnical complexity of a smart grid. The research objective is approached by focusing
on two specific areas; technological influence on domestic energy consumption and
modelling electricity market evolution to inform product/service design. Agent-based
modelling is particularly suited to this task as a means of explaining observed phenomena
and a mechanism for improving the explanation.
Initial results and empirical evidence has shown that in-home displays and information
feedback have a finite impact on the reduction of domestic energy consumption [2][3]. A
model based on psychological behaviour theory has been created to simulate and represent
this relationship. This insight has been applied in developing a methodology for use in the 3e
Houses (EU FP7 Project) field trial. By representing the household-technology interaction as
a control loop the trial will act as a source of empirical data which will be used in model
verification. An understanding of how consumers are differently affected by technology and
feedback will allow for improved designs and functionalities for home energy management
systems.
The second focus of this research project is aimed at understanding how the expected
changes in electricity market structure brought about as a result of smart metering will create
third party service opportunities. Analysis through agent based modelling will include market
structure, network constraints and social behaviours thereby providing an integrated
simulation environment through which to view smart grid systems.
[1] J. J. Bryson, Y. Ando, and H. Lehmann, ―Agent-based modelling as scientific method: a case study analysing
primate social behaviour,‖ Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, vol. 362, no.
1485, pp. 1685–1699, 2007.
[2] S. Darby, ―The Effectiveness of Feedback on Energy Consumption,‖ ., The Environmental Change Institute,
University of Oxford, June 2006.
[3] ―Electricity Smart Metering Customer Behaviour Trials (CBT) Findings Report,‖ ., The Commission for Energy
Regulation, 2011.
_Author
contact details. Email: [email protected]
36
Optimising Carbon Reduction Strategies In Organisations Through Systems
Thinking
Research Engineer: Rachel Freeman1
Academic Supervisor: Dr. Chris Priest2
Systems Supervisor:, Dr. Mike Yearworth4
Industrial Supervisor: Toby Parker3
1
Industrial Doctorate Centre in Systems University of Bristol, Queen's Building, University Walk, Bristol, BS8 1TR
[[email protected]]
2
Department of Computer Science, University of Bristol, MVB, Woodland Road, Bristol BS8 1UB
[[email protected]]
3
Sustain Limited, Barley Wood Stables, Long Lane, Wrington, Bristol, BS40 5SA [[email protected]]
4
Industrial Doctorate Centre in Systems University of Bristol, Queen's Building, University Walk, Bristol BS8 1TR
[[email protected]]
Project Background:
There are two main drivers leading to a need to reduce energy consumption: the UK
government has established firm carbon reduction targets to tackle climate change, and
energy prices have been rising and are expected to continue to rise. Although improvements
in energy efficiency since 1990 have offset the energy impacts of growth in GDP, total final
energy consumption in the UK remains approximately the same. Demand reduction
interventions tried so far have mostly addressed single issues such as building and end-use
equipment efficiency or energy behaviours, but because of the limited impact there have
been calls in the literature for a more integrated, systems approach to be used.
Within the non-residential sectors, most organisations still operate as linear, open loop
systems in which minimising Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions and waste streams are not
priorities in everyday decision making. Budget and financial reporting cycles dominate rather
than long-term organisational sustainability or carbon risk reduction.
All organisations use buildings, which can be seen as complex socio-technical systems of
people, organisational culture and policies, building infrastructure, and energy-using
equipment. Energy is used to provide the services people need to run the organisation, such
as indoor comfort, motor power, and ICT. Post-occupancy evaluations have shown that
actual energy consumption in buildings can be much higher than planned for at design
stage. Diagnosing where energy is being used and finding ways to reduce it are not
straightforward tasks. There is a need to better understand the dynamic interactions
between all the components active in the system and how they evolve over time.
Purpose of the research: The research aims to develop a new approach to carbon
reduction in organisations using systems thinking, which will improve upon existing
practices. There are two main research questions:
[1]
How best to diagnose the sociotechnical system that is an organisation and its infrastructure
with regards to its carbon emissions? How can we understand the interactions between components
and how they evolve over time? How much do we need to know about the system before we can
intervene, and will investigating the system change it?
[2]
When a ‘system of interventions’ is applied to an organisation, is the whole greater than the
sum of the parts? A carbon reduction methodology that combines soft, hard, and IT interventions
could make use of positive synergies between them to increase their effectiveness, and ample
evidence in the literature supports this view – but what potential synergies exist, which interventions
to choose, and in what order should they be implemented?
Expected results: The main expected result of the research is the development and test of
a method for performing systems-oriented carbon reduction in organisations. The method
37
will be based on Systems Dynamics modelling and will include a protocol for intervening and
a reporting structure which can be used by carbon reduction practitioners. The method will
call on existing methods in use, plus the systems modelling, to create a more effective and
comprehensive approach; this approach could also enable organisations to go beyond the
focus on saving energy and move towards long-term sustainability if they wish to. In addition,
general research into the nature of energy demand is expected to produce new insights into
the practices that exist in organisations around the use of energy.
38
Development of Electric and Hybrid Motorcycles
Research Engineer: Tim Hutchinson
Academic Supervisor: Stuart Burgess
Systems Supervisors: David Stoten, Patrick Godfrey
Industrial Supervisor: Stuart Wood, Triumph Designs
In a time of rising oil prices and environmental concerns, this research project aims to
investigate the potential of alternative powertrains for the commercial motorcycle market.
Over recent years there has been much development of new powertrain technologies across
the transport sector, with passenger cars receiving the majority of attention. The motorcycle
industry remains relatively slow moving, with a small electric motorcycle market emerging
but otherwise few major powertrain developments.
Of the alternative powertrain technologies that currently exist, electric and hybrid electric
powertrains are receiving the greatest focus across the transport sector. Fuel cell
powertrains have also been in development for some time, however, they present nontrivial
obstacles to commercialisation that are yet to be overcome. The primary advantage of
electric and hybrid powertrains over their petrol/diesel counterparts is a higher system
efficiency, resulting in less power into the system and fewer emissions out. This can be
appreciated by the user through the lower running costs.
A hybrid powertrain is a very loose term as it covers any number of different system
architectures that include both an internal combustion engine and an electric motor.
Essentially a hybrid is anything between a traditional internal combustion engine and a fully
electric powertrain. A fully electric powertrain is the ideal as far as system efficiency is
concerned, with commercial electric cars reaching ―tank-to-wheel― efficiencies of up to 78%
compared to 19% for a comparable petrol car. However, whilst the system efficiency is
impressive, electric powertrains have a substantial downside represented by their means of
electricity storage. The energy density of batteries is still far below that of petrol and thus
electric vehicles struggle to provide even 100 miles of real-world driving. When it comes to
recharging the battery packs, this is generally a very lengthy procedure due to the
considerable power demand and the lack of widespread fast-charge charging stations. This
is why hybrid vehicles are currently the most common alternative powertrain vehicles in
production. They also have the advantage of presenting a competence-enhancing
discontinuity unlike electric vehicles which are more competence-destroying for the
manufacturer.
While passenger cars are leading the way on innovative powertrain developments driven by
regulators and shifting customer expectations, motorcycle manufacturers must also be
aware of the need for future changes. With a far smaller share of the road transport market,
motorcycles have, to date, received minimal regulatory attention. However, the industry is
seeing increased regulatory attention which appears to be following the trend set by the
automotive industry. Thus it appears likely that the motorcycle industry will soon also be
forced to introduce alternative powertrain technologies. The industry presents a very
different market to passenger cars, a market run less by transport necessity and more by
enthusiasts. Hence the application of ―green technology‖ presents a very different problem.
This project seeks to understand the viabilities of available technologies and explore their
potential within the motorcycle market. An important part of this is in understanding the
market and the customer requirements. This will be vital in allowing the analysis of different
powertrain architectures and the selection of those most suited to the target market.
39
Ice Pigging in the Food Manufacture Industry and Nuclear Industries
Research Engineer: Dan McBryde
Academic Supervisor: Mike Tierney (2)
Industrial Supervisor: Joe Quarini(1)
1
2
.Room 1.30, Queens Building, University Walk, Clifton, Bristol, BS8 1TR [email protected]
Room 2.60, Queens Building, University Walk, Clifton, Bristol, BS8 1TR [email protected]
Ice pigging is a method of cleaning the internal walls of pipes and ducts where conventional
cleaning methods are not very successful. This is done through the use of a pump-able ice
slurry that effectively scours the internal walls of the pipe as the slurry is pumped through.
Ice pigging is particularly good at cleaning complex topology pipe works where it would
normally require a large amount of down time to clean out the system.
Ice pigging has been very successful in the water industry with Bristol Water PLC adopting
the technique as their main method of removing fouling from water mains. Hundreds of
kilometres of mains water pipes have been pigged over the last few years with very
impressive measurable soil removal results.
Over the years many experiments have been conducted to assess the ice pigs‘ viability
when being used to clean pipes that are used to transport food products. In the majority of
food factories the pipe works are flushed with water to remove the remnants of product that
remain in the pipe. Production lines in food factories deal with many different products on the
same line, they have to ensure that the line has been cleaned effectively of previous product
before the next product is transported through that same line. This usually involves hundreds
of litres of water being used to flush the pipes. This poses a problem in that any product
removed from the pipes cannot be sold on to the customer as it is diluted by the cleaning
fluid. This means that it has to go to waste which not only affects the yield of saleable
product but because the product has an oxygen demand it has to be treated in an effluent
plant before being put to waste. Some products in particular due to their properties may
require several flushes to entirely remove the product fouling. This significantly increases a
plants water usage, effluent production and product wastage.
Comparative experiments between water flushes and ice pigging have been carried out that
have highlighted that the three main problems mentioned previously are significantly
reduced by using the ice pig. This is mainly to do with much less product mixing with the ice
pig than in the water flushing case. Much more saleable product can be recovered which can
then go on to the customer, in turn boosting the factories production yield.
Currently there is a government funded project involving some of the big players in the food
manufacture industry that is trying to help integrate ice pigging into food manufacture
processes. This has involved actually going to food factories, conducting ice pigging trials
and analysing the product that has been removed from the systems to establish how much
product can be saved giving the relative benefit to the food industry. There will also be work
geared towards determining the physical cleanliness of the pipe work after the ice pig has
been used.
Regarding the nuclear industry, Ice pigging could be used to remove radioactive fouling from
pipes where normally this would never be possible due to the harmful nature of the fouling.
Characteristic materials will be distributed in representative pipes to determine what
happens when the ice pig is used to remove them. The worry is that the ice pig will bulldoze
debris in front of itself which may then cause a blockage. This would be a disaster as nothing
can be done to remove the blockage. Experiments will be run with different flow rates and
varying ice fractions to determine if or when bulldozing occurs. If bulldozing does occur then
the situation will be assessed to see what can be done to prevent the bulldozing.
40
Crowdsourcing Urban ISTAR
Research Engineer: Barry Park, [email protected] 1,2
Industrial Supervisor: David Nicholson, [email protected] 1
Systems Supervisor: Mike Yearworth, [email protected] 2
1 BAE Systems, Advanced Technology Centre, Sowerby Building, Filton, Bristol, BS34 7QW
2 University of Bristol, Queen's Building, University Walk, Bristol, BS8 1TR
Background
The capability of decision makers involved in complex strategic urban operations to gather
and interpret large volumes of information is becoming more important. For example: first
responders to urban disasters are faced with complicated time-critical information gathering
and sharing protocols which impact important decisions for resource distribution; police
forces and emergency services require streams of information in order to organise proactive
and reactive responses to emerging events; and military decision makers have to allocate
limited sensing resources in an agile manner to meet changing operational requirements.
These challenges are made all the more difficult by the urban environment which reduces
the utility of information gatherers.
ISTAR
ISTAR (Intelligence, Surveillance, Target Acquisition, and Reconnaissance) is the
generation of information that underpins situational awareness, threat assessment and
decision making in the military, and provides a useful way of framing the challenges of
gathering information in urban regions. ISTAR combines the output of many, often disparate
sensors ranging from space-based surveillance to human observation. The focus of this
research is to investigate and develop an approach of using large volumes of human reports
to improve ISTAR capabilities. This approach is based on an emerging trend called
crowdsourcing.
Crowdsourcing
Crowdsourcing is a web-based approach to solving problems or gathering data, that uses
large groups of people working on a task to complete it quicker and cheaper than traditional
methods. Challenges in this field include: how to gather a crowd of people and motivate
them to take part in the task; how responses from the crowd are structured; what feedback
should be used between task requesters and task responders; and how to aggregate
responses from the crowd.
Approach: Human-in-the-loop simulation
A method called ‗human-in-the-loop simulation‘ has been proposed as a way of investigating
a crowdsourcing approach to ISTAR, with the purpose of determining the likely performance
benefits that can be gained from crowdsourced data. This approach uses a simulation that
represents an urban environment, and crowdsources a group of responders to provide
human observations of the simulation. In doing so, human generated reports are created
which can be aggregated to build up a picture of events in the simulation. This approach
allows for the direct comparison between the ground-truth of the simulation, and the picture
built-up from the human generated reports, leading to a measure of system performance.
41
The Case for a Systems Approach to Technological Innovation
Research Engineer: Elliott Parsons1
Academic Supervisor: Prof. Leroy White2
Systems Supervisor:
Industrial Supervisor: David Seabrooke-Spencer2, Edward Goddard3
Key Words; Technology, Management, Risk, Assessment, Systems.
Technological innovation is a demanding task due to the risks and uncertainties that can
arise throughout the technology development process. The nature of these risks are broad
and can include technical, financial, organisational and commercial aspects in nature. Case
study based research identified that management approaches, within technology-based
organisations, do not consider risk from a top down holistic perspective.
An approach that considers risk from this perspective is required, in order to continually
review and mitigate against those technical and non-technical factors that impact upon
technology development and its exploitation. Case study based research identified the need
for technology-based organisations to consider a wider range of factors that impact
technology exploitation. A subsequent case study developed a self-assessment tool that has
been designed to support risk assessment throughout the technology development process
and across a wide range of factors.
Research in the literature identified that the Technology Management Framework provides
an aid to understanding those wider factors. The framework provides a grouping of factors to
categorise those activities that should be conducted during the technology development
process. However, the framework is conceptual in its basis and does not provide a practical
method for users to manage the wider risks that impact upon commercial exploitation
throughout the technology development process.
The Stage-Gate approach provides a practical method to aid risk assessment during the
technology development process, by keeping technology development activity under
continual review. This is achieved by splitting the development process into stages with a
series of assessment gates added at each stage transition point. However, it does not
provide a set of metrics that can be used for assessment of the technical, commercial and
financial factors that impact technology development.
In recognition of the limitations of existing management approaches within the literature,
initial research was conducted to provide justification for the argument for a systems based
assessment of risk to the exploitation of technology development. The research was case
study based and a method of observational enquiry was used. This involved the assessment
of a technology development project working with a group of firms that were selected
because of their interest in and influence upon technology development in the defence
sector.
A second case study was conducted to develop an innovation self-assessment tool. The
case study was commissioned by a governing body within the UK transport industry and
completed using action research through a series of participatory workshops. The workshop
was conducted with a group of small firms with practical experience of developing
1
University of Bristol/Frazer-Nash Consultancy, 1 Trinity Street, College Green, Bristol, United
Kingdom, [email protected]
2
Department of Management, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom, [email protected]
3
Frazer-Nash Consultancy, 1 Trinity Street, College Green, Bristol, United Kingdom, [email protected] &
[email protected]
42
technology. This research provided an outline of the tool and the factors that may need to be
considered.
The research validated the argument that a wider range of factors should be considered
during the development of technical products and services and developed the case for a
systems based assessment of risk throughout the technology development process, based
on the staged assessment of technical and non-technical risk factors. The research also
developed a self-assessment tool to help manage the risks that arise during technology
development and that impact upon commercial exploitation of new technology.
43
A Systems Approach To Implementing FEA To Support Design For ThroughLife And Across Business Functions For Volume Parts Manufacturers
Research Engineer: James Upton
Academic Supervisors: Prof. Patrick Keogh, Dr. Ben Hicks
Industrial Supervisor: Andy Slayne
Sponsoring Company and Product
Saint-Gobain Performance Plastics Rencol Ltd. is a designer and manufacturer of noncommodity radial spring fasteners called ‗Tolerance Rings‘. They primarily operate from a
Bristol site selling products in the Automotive, Appliance and Hard disk drive markets across
the world.
The Driver and Aim of the Project
The design processes for Tolerance Rings are currently lacking adequate modelling tools to
effectively understand ring performance which possess many interdependencies in the
design parameters and the mating components. This makes designing rings an inefficient
and costly process which quite often relies on adapting designs based on product
knowledge, application experience and physical prototyping and testing with little analytics
and modelling.
To address this, the EngD project aim has been set to develop and implement Finite
Element Analysis modelling tools for Tolerance Ring design. It is evident that developing a
holistic solution for FEA implementation across the functions of the business (including
design, manufacture, testing and marketing) will help bring more benefits from the FEA.
The intent is to deliver a system which will bring a step change in:
-
Reducing design iterations towards Right-first-time design
Understanding the product and processes and the variables involved
Raising the technical profile with the customers
From this process it is intended to draw out the learning from using a systems approach to
developing and implementing FEA systems in volume product design and manufacture.
Results and Progress to date:
Thus far in the project, a system has been developed consisting of a series of interlinking
Finite Element Models using the ‗Abaqus‘ platform. The models and their interfaces have
been developed to represent the processes in the company with input from all relevant
business functions which has essentially brought a virtual prototype and testing facility.
This system is being used to characterise virtual tolerance ring prototypes according to
various standardised input parameters which then undergo performance testing simulations
to evaluate the designs in numerous ways. The designs can then be optimised according to
many different criteria as required by the application.
Further work will involve automating the system to enable greater throughput of design
candidates and developing statistical data processing and neural networks to use the data
from the system to enable on-the-fly optimisation of parameters.
44
Advanced Machine Tool Metrology – One Hour 5-Axis Machine Tool
Calibration System & One Minute Verification System
Research Engineer: Mr. M R Verma(1,2,3)
Academic Supervisor: Prof. P Maropoulos(3)
Systems Supervisor: Mr N Orchard(4)
1
Machine Tool Technologies Ltd, Nelson, BB9 7DR
Rolls-Royce plc. - Manufacturing Technology, Derby, DE24 8BJ
3
Faculty of Engineering & Design, University of Bath, BA2 7AY
4
Rolls-Royce plc. – Manufacturing Technology, Bristol, BS34 7QE
2
A fundamental element of a manufacturing system (i.e. machining system) is the machine
tool. The capability of a machine tool is influenced by its system configuration, operating
environment and performance output requirements.
Increases in product performance are constantly driven by designers, who specify tighter
manufacturing tolerances, constrained design specifications, increased complexity of
product geometries, higher performance materials, which effectively results in parts that are
difficult to machine. From a manufacturing process perspective engineers are continuously
trying to improve machine tool capability in terms of availability, performance and quality.
This is with the aim of reducing the frequency and severity of process breakdowns as well as
increasing machine uptime, material removal rates and automation. Therefore a paradoxical
situation has arisen where more severe conditions are being imposed on the machine tool
where higher performance is expected but with lower levels of process interruption.
A machine tool can be viewed as a sub-system within a larger manufacturing system where
changes in its performance can have a significant impact on product lifecycle characteristics
such as cost-to-market, final product conformance and lifespan. Improvements to a machine
tool can be made through optimisation of elements contained within its system which can
include its geometry, mechanical components, electrical components, electronic
components, CNC controller, part fixturing and cutting tools to name a few.
It is critical to understand the errors contained within a machine tool system as the
configuration and variation of these have a direct impact on its underlying accuracy and
repeatability and consequently its overall capability.
In order to produce conforming product at a high level of process capability it is fundamental
that a machine tool is demonstrably accurate, but even a simple 3-axis machine has 21
potential sources of geometric error – linearity, straightness, squareness etc. Adding 1 or
more rotary axes increases the complexity further. Each of these errors needs to be fully
understood and either corrected or compensated for before machining parts. There are a
number of devices that have been used to calibrate machines for many years, but it typically
takes up to 5 days to calibrate a machine fully. This amount of downtime is very expensive
and not generally acceptable, so there is a drive to cut the calibration time drastically and
implement rapid/non-intrusive verification systems to confirm on-going equivalence and
prevent catastrophic failures.
My research activity will be focused around a business objective of being able to calibrate a
5-axis machine tool in less than 1 hour, and to introduce methods of verification that take
less than 1 minute. This is an ambitious target that overlaps numerous complex hard and
soft systems, where achievement of the targets alone will lead to their own synergistic
advantages and disadvantages.
45
Precision Video Measurement For Structural Monitoring Applications
Research Engineer: Paul Waterfall
Academic Supervisor: Dr John Macdonald(2
Systems Supervisor: Dr Theo Tryfonas(2)
Industrial Supervisor: Dr. Chris Setchell(1)
1
2
Imetrum, 4 Farleigh Court, Old Weston Rd, Flax Bourton, Bristol BS48 1UR
Bristol University, Senate House, Tyndall Avenue, Bristol BS8 1TH
Background
Imetrum's patented optical measurement technology can be used to capture more accurate
movement data quicker and cheaper than has been possible before, from concrete cracks to
track monitoring to suspension bridges. The system uses pattern recognition to measure
movements of discreet points within videos to a very high accuracy. Customers include
many high-end manufacturers and their suppliers, such as Airbus, Rolls-Royce & F1 Teams.
The system was originally designed for suspension bridge measurement, but wider
acceptance within the civil engineering industry is relatively slow. This EngD‘s focus is to
address the reasons for this, looking at both the core technology and the market. Outcomes
will include a thorough understanding of likely measurement opportunities, and work towards
technical solutions required to address these
Cultural Challenges
Civil Engineers are stereotypically conservative. As so many lives depend on structures
being reliable and robust, their measurement techniques need to be equally trustworthy. This
makes it difficult for new technologies to enter the market, due to a reinforcing loop. My work
involves trying to get Imetrum into that loop, building confidence through discussions, trials
and dissemination
Measurement Device
Deployed
Confidence in measurement
device increases
Data Gathered
Performance of device
understood & refined
Technical Challenges
Half way into the EngD, we now have a good understanding of the environments and
applications where the system works well. Some of these are highlighted below.
The largest potential market (replacing Total Stations), is one which needs considerable
further technical development. Some of the challenge for the next two years is to refine the
system hardware and software to a point where the company can make a decision on
whether a fully developed solution should be offered to the market.
46
Low Impact Building Materials to Improve the Sustainability of Buildings
Research Engineer: Natasha Watson (1,2,3),
Academic Supervisor: Prof. Pete Walker (1),
Industrial Supervisor: Andrew Wylie (2), Celia Way (2)
1
2
University of Bath, Claverton Down, Bath, BA2 7AY
Buro Happold Ltd., Camden Mill, Lower Bristol Road, Bath, BA2 3DQ
The carbon emissions from the operation of buildings (e.g. heating, cooling, and ventilation)
is predicted to decrease through a variety of measures, including higher levels of thermal
insulation, better air tightness, improved operational systems and a lower carbon supply. As
this operational carbon decreases, the proportion of carbon embodied within building
materials will increase. This is likely to cause a shift in focus to the embodied carbon in
building materials which, when considering a cradle to cradle approach, is comprised of the
carbon emissions from extraction of raw materials, processing, haulage, installation,
maintenance, and eventual decommissioning and recycling or disposing. However, low
impact building materials (LIBM) are more than just low carbon materials and their criteria is
shown in Figure 1.
little adverse
impact to rest
of structure
low
carbon
low
energy
suitable for
purpose
low water
usage
regulate
internal
environment
low resource
depletion
low impact
building materials
high
economic
gain
easy & safe
maintenance
low
waste
low haulage
energy
uses waste/
recycled
materials
easy & safe
installation
high
social
gain
easily
recycled
little to
no toxic
chemicals
Figure 2 Criteria for LIBM
So far my EngD has looked into identifying the barriers to entry for LIBM, which so far are a
lack of awareness and the risks and perceived risks involved when constructing with lesser
used materials.
I will also be conducting case studies on projects with Buro Happold where the client has a
strong green agenda and gathering data and disseminating knowledge which will to
empower engineers to suggest LIBM where appropriate. This will include putting together a
framework to compare materials with each other based on the criteria mentioned in Figure 1.
47
Buildings for the 21st Century
Research Engineer: Bengt Cousins-Jenvey ([email protected])
Academic Supervisors: Prof. Pete Walker & Dr. Andy Shea, University of Bath
Industrial Supervisor: Judith Sykes, Useful Simple Projects
Our era is increasingly characterised by the need to design buildings that use less energy
over their whole life and reduce emissions of carbon dioxide in line with international efforts
to address climate change. However, the understanding and knowledge of the carbon
impact of buildings is an emerging science.
As building fabric improvements reduce operational energy usage, construction products
and materials make up a more significant proportion of whole life carbon emissions.
Therefore, designers cannot ignore the connection between the operational and ―embodied‖
phases of a building‘s life.
The Buildings for the 21st Century collaboration with Useful Simple Projects will investigate
the potential of systems approaches to explore this relationship. Its focus is to improve
decision making at the concept stage of the design process.
48
A Holistic Approach To Hydraulic Systems Engineering
Research Engineer: Damian Flynn
Academic Supervisor: Prof Christian Allen1
Systems Supervisor: Dr Ges Rosenberg2
Industrial Supervisor: Mr James Playdon3
1;The
University of Bristol
The University of Bristol
3; Parker Hannifin, Tachbrook Park Drive, Warwick, CV8 2GS, UK
2;
Hydraulic systems are a preferred method of motion and control for many land based
vehicles in the military. These have the following advantages:




Excellent power to weight ratio
Compact components
Flexible power transfer
Reliability of motion
These systems have high performance requirements however the requirement for energy
efficient systems in the military is largely neglected. The effect of this is acceptance of
energy in-efficient systems which meet the performance requirements.
The aim of this project is to analyse a selection of these inefficient systems developed by
Parker Hannifin and determine the reason for their system acceptance. A theoretical
alternative to each system will then be developed which maintains the same performance
criteria but looks to achieve better energy efficiency for the prime mover. This alternative
system will then be analysed for viability in the real world and extent of benefits gained A set
of principles relating to their implementation should be developed.
The project then aims to use these principles in the formulation of new motion and control
systems and evaluate their success.
Finally, the project aims to generate a classification method or optimisation technique to
enable the design of energy optimised motion and control systems at the early stages of
system conception to maximise the use and benefits of this improved system philosophy.
49
Improved Predictability and Reduced Lead Times for Systems Engineering
Activities
Research Engineer: Dawn Gilbert University of Bristol/Thales UK,
[email protected]
Academic Supervisor: John Davis, University of Bristol
Systems Supervisor: Mike Yearworth, University of Bristol
Industrial Supervisor: Hillary Sillitto, Thales UK
Industry has difficulty in predicting the time and budget required to deliver systems
engineering projects. On average projects are reported to be around 40 percent over
schedule and 35 percent over budget1. The broadest cross-industry method for estimating
project costs is able to predict costs within 30 percent accuracy in 50 percent of cases2.
The Thales UK System Engineering community is comprised of around 1400 staff members
working across defence, aerospace, security and transportation domains. At any given time
staff will be working on projects ranging in size from £10K to £1Bn, with around 200 live
projects requiring significant levels of system engineering expertise. This EngD project
seeks to develop, implement, review, and further develop the use of technical metrics on
systems engineering projects across Thales UK. The aim is to have a better understanding
of how the technical solution is developing as resources are consumed, as opposed to
discovering project status only when available time or budget has been fully consumed. The
metrics would ideally be automatically gathered, easy to review, act on, and show changes,
and contribute to learning across the Thales UK systems engineering community, such that
the quality and ease of preparing initial estimates (parametric estimates) improves. Improved
estimation would also allow for more stable planning and allocation of staff resources.
Key challenges experienced within Thales UK and across the systems engineering industry
in implementing systems engineering technical metrics include:

developing specifications for metrics that are useful, objective, and transferable
across domains and projects of all sizes

automating data collection from a wide array of specialised software packages and
from projects that may be subject to various security clearances

obtaining the volume of data that can be considered current or relevant that is
required to produce statistically significant parameters for use in generating
estimates

motivation due to the time-lag and potential for other disciplines to impact project
performance between the time when metrics are collected, and the cost and
schedule consequences to the wider project being realised.
This project will also establish a method within Thales UK that demonstrates and allows
monitoring of how the system engineering metrics are contributing to Thales UK business
objectives. This approach will make use of Hierarchical Process Modelling. Key challenges
in establishing this method relate to its implementation within an organisation which is
undergoing transformation, including a move from a hierarchical structure to a matrix
organisation, comprising five operating domains and 21 legal entities.
1
INCOSE Systems Engineering Centre of Excellence, Value of Systems Engineering Project 01-03, 2004
2 Valerdi, R. (2005) The Constructive Systems Engineering Cost Model (COSYSMO), PhD Dissertation, University of Southern
California.
50
ENGINEERING THE ENTERPRISE:
Facilitating Resilient Decision-making Throughout the Engineering Lifecycle in
Multi-stakeholder Environments
Research Engineer: Andrew Hale4
Academic Supervisor: Prof Leroy White5
Systems Supervisor:
Industrial Supervisor: David Seabrooke-Spencer2, Edward Goddard
Key Words: Decision Analysis, Stakeholder Impact, Resilience, Sustainability, Risk, Assessment,
Systems.
The theme of this research programme is decision-making and analysis at the front end of
complex engineering projects in multi-stakeholder environments. The research will develop,
test and apply a framework that is capable of addressing variables such as sustainability,
risk and resilience as well as assessing their dynamic relationships during the early
development of engineered systems. A specific area of research is stakeholder engagement
and analysis, specifically how the perspectives, knowledge and behaviours of different
stakeholder groups affect decision making at each stage of the engineering life-cycle. The
research will explore how ‗soft‘ aspects such as human-interfaces and critical thinking may
be incorporated during the front end of engineering programmes. As an example, the
research will investigate how end-users may be incorporated during the early stages of the
design process and how critical stakeholder perspectives can be used to challenge ‘group
think‘, informing initial design and strategy.
Initially, the research will explore the concepts of decision analysis, stakeholder engagement
and impact, resilience, risk and sustainability within the literature in order to identify gaps and
look to identify common principles for the framework. Industry based case studies will be
assessed in order to gain practical insight and understanding of early decision-making in
action. Semi-structured interviews will be conducted, in order to enhance understanding of
those issues that affect decision-making processes at the front end of engineering
programmes. Data from the interviews will be analysed and common principles established
to support development of the framework and support resilient decision making in industry.
The framework will be applied to client-based projects as the basis for critical review and
improvement.
The overall purpose of the research is to provide technically based organisations with indepth understanding of the complexity of engineering programmes, beyond purely technical
challenges, in terms of resilience, risk and sustainability at the front end of the engineering
lifecycle. In the current climate of scarce resource, both financial and physical, the needs of
clients are becoming ever more demanding and varied and the scope of this research will
help shape early stage decision making through resilience based thinking.
4
University of Bristol/Frazer-Nash Consultancy, 1 Trinity Street, College Green, Bristol, United
Kingdom, [email protected]
5
Department of Management, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom, [email protected]
51
Design of Adaptive Multi-Process Manufacturing Systems
Research Engineer: Blake Kendrick
Academic Supervisor: Prof. S. Newman*, Dr. V. Dhokia*
Industrial Supervisor: Dr. K. Jonas** and Mr B. Altwasser**
* Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Bath, Bath, BA2 7AY
** Renishaw plc, New Mills, Wotton-under-Edge, Gloucestershire, GL12 8JR
Manufacturing processes fall under five distinct categories [1]:
i) Joining – where two or more work pieces are joined to form fewer work pieces, e.g. welding
ii) Dividing – where a singular work piece is split into two or more work pieces, e.g. sawing
iii) Transformative – a change to a work piece that results in a new work piece with no loss of mass,
e.g. sheet bending
iv) Subtractive – the removal of material from a work piece, e.g. CNC machining
v) Additive – the addition of material to a work piece, e.g. Selective laser sintering
Whilst there is a documented body of knowledge surrounding numerous processes in each
individual category, the implications of combining several processes, though academically
intriguing, is relatively unexplored.
The next generation of manufacturing machines look to combine different processes, and
are becoming an increasingly popular notion. By either merging all subtractive, additive,
transformative, joining and dividing processes (or a sub-set thereof), a new, more efficient
system can be created. If this system can be realised on modular platforms there is the
capability to reconfigure and group, enabling different manufacturing processes in a single
location. Two existing examples of hybrid machines include using a laser to cut a pilot hole,
before using a drill bit to finish the hole and wire EDM, where micro-drilling and electrode
implantation are achieved.
Smart decision algorithms can determine when to use additive techniques and when to use
subtractive techniques to make a given part. Once made, the part can be verified in situ,
using measurement technology. If incorrect, the part can be reworked until it meets
tolerance. This will effectively close the loop on manufacturing quality and control.
Adaptive manufacturing is defined here as the ability of a manufacturing system or platform
to handle changes in component requirements, available processes and manufacturing
knowledge. This will allow for interoperable process planning and control with multiple
materials.
Whilst fundamentally hard in nature, the project also allows for investigation of softer issues.
These include the impact of adaptive Multi-Process applications on Design Engineers,
Production Engineers and Operators; as well as investigating the commercial, environmental
and political influences from the surrounding organisation.
[1] A. Nassehi, S. Newman, V. Dhokia, Z. Zhu, and R. I. Asrai, ―Using formal methods to model hybrid
manufacturing processes,‖ Production, 2011.
52
Visualisation of the Change Process
Research Engineer: Thomas Walworth1,2 [email protected]
Academic Supervisor: Mike Yearworth1
Systems Supervisor: John Davis1
Industrial Supervisor: Hillary Sillitto2
1
2
University of Bristol, UK
Thales UK
It is clear that in order to survive engineering companies must be able to change and adapt
to a dynamic market, in existence as a result of the global economy and partly due to a
hugely changing technological landscape. Therefore, the ability of a company to introduce
new techniques, process and design lifecycles is key to winning business. Large hierarchical
firms struggle to achieve this change. This research suggests that one way to improve this
may be through clearer communication and understanding of change, that by ‗visualising‘
the process of change and identifying key areas within the process to make more visible,
change may be more efficient and more effective.
One key aspect this EngD project seeks is to develop, implement, and review the use of
technical metrics on systems engineering projects across Thales using techniques
generated by the research to both implement and maintain this process change. This may
be expanded to include the introduction of other SE processes to add value to the SE work
performed within the company, to possible include: model based systems engineering, lean,
people, governance, lean, estimating, product line engineering, etc.
The Oxford English Dictionary defines visualisation as:
1.
2.
The action or fact of visualizing; the power or process of forming a mental picture or
vision of something not actually present to the sight; a picture thus formed.
The action or process of rendering visible.
In this research we are looking at both of these; a change in the way information is
presented to help with the aiding of mental pictures and the use of visual techniques to make
information displays visible in the most effective way possible. This is a research area which
does not specifically show up in one discipline, appearing across various disciplines as there
has been an increase in the need for visualisations over text based forms of communication.
I am looking at how visualisation affects business change, i.e. change employed by a
company to improve their ability to perform. This may be the introduction of new tools,
techniques or processes to the way a company conducts its day to day business. Change
management very simply is therefore the management of the transition from the original
state to the changed state brought about by the application of these new tools, techniques
and processes.
It is the premise of the research suggested that this can be very easily simplified into a
causal loop, containing three key activities: Do something, the effect and see the effect.
Although conceivable that this could be viewed a two-step ―do something - effect‖ process,
the expansion of the cycle to include ―see it‖ is a conscious effort to differentiate between the
change made resulting in an effect and the recognition of this effect by the stakeholders in
the change. Two additional important aspects of this process were then included with direct
links to the ability of this process to perform as effectively as possible. These were an
inclusion of an element of delay to the process, most prevalent between the action being
taken and the effect. This may be dependent on a number of factors, for example the size of
the change being implemented, the authority that the change is given, and the location of the
change. The other side of this coin is to help promote the seeing of an effect by increasing
the visualisation of the effect. A delay between doing something to having an effect or a lack
53
of ability of the stakeholders to be able to see that effect may easily result in the change
process inevitably failing.
54
Design Of A Breakthrough Motion Controller System With Renishaw
Research Engineer: Dave Sellars
Academic Supervisor: Prof. Kevin Potter
Systems Supervisor: Prof. Patrick Godfrey
Industrial Supervisor: Dr. Kevyn Jonas
A new and exciting area of ground breaking research to Renishaw is in novel robotic control
systems. Current robotic equipment requires bespoke controllers per machine, and thus
specialised and complex input/output platforms with the associated learning and expertise,
are required for control and manipulation of additional equipment such as measurement
gauges. This situation has long been regarded as inadequate within industry and academia
as ideas cannot evolve quickly enough through the technological limitations. This research
aims to change this situation, by providing a step change in the capability of robotic control
systems. The project hopes to deliver a low-cost fully flexible universal platform that will have
end-user apparatus independence and through a novel control system.
Several key issues including software design, electronics interfaces, and user interaction will
need to be resolved during the project. However, combining the expertise from ACCIS and
Renishaw together, it is anticipated that this project will deliver a successful prototype that
can be taken forward to market. It is also expected that the outcome of the project will
provide direct input into planned product development at Renishaw, and also form the basis
of future leveraged proposals to other funding bodies.
55
The Industrialisation of the GKN Aerospace A350 Spar Manufacturing Facility
Research Engineer: Darren Winter, GKN Aerospace ([email protected])
Academic Supervisor: Prof. K.D. Potter, University of Bristol ([email protected])
Industrial Supervisor: Chris Jones, GKN Aerospace
([email protected])
As part of GKN‘s strategic development in the aerospace sector, the company‘s Aerospace
division (GKNA) has invested £150M into a flagship manufacturing facility at Severn Beach
near Bristol where production has commenced of the Airbus A350 ‗Fixed Trailing Edge‘
(FTE). The main structural element of the FTE is the carbon fibre wing spar produced using
state of the art materials and advanced fibre placement equipment. The EngD research will
focus on the production of the 30m long, ~850kg carbon fibre wing spar which has to be
contractually manufactured at a rate of 13 shipsets per month. GKNA are currently rampingup to this rate of build, however the challenges of implementing a new facility of this scale
were numerous as GKNA have implemented brand new equipment, tooling, methods and
people into a brand new building!
The site runs on a ‗Value Stream Map‘ principle (VSM) and has been configured for
production operations to run on optimal takt times. However, the VSM is still in its infancy
and the ‗current state‘ of production is still being established. Ample opportunity therefore
exists to employ ‗Systems Thinking‘ in addition to the ‗Lean Thinking‘ already employed as a
means for continuous improvement. When production reaches ‗steady state‘, work will
commence to reach a ‗future state‘ vision of the VSM and accomplish manufacture at
contractual rates. However, one can appreciate that the site does not simply consist of
materials and machines; it also consists of the staff necessary to meet crucial rates of
manufacture.
The issues facing GKNA therefore contain both ‗Hard‘ and ‗Soft‘ elements. The Hard
elements are identified as tangible assets such as the machines, processes and materials;
monitored by metrics to measure performance. The Soft system elements, identified as staff
operating in the sequential VSM manufacturing cell environment, require the skillsets
needed to meet future state rates of production and form the intangible tacit knowledge that
is most valued in complex manufacturing environments.
A pilot study was conducted within the Spar facility based on an initiative conducted by MIT
(Lean Aerospace Initiative - LAI). This reported on a series of Key ‗Enablers‘ to promote
efficiency within the VSM environment. The enablers are a survey that allows one to identify
lean shortfalls addressing staff at all levels. The study gauged which tenets of lean thinking
could be better implemented into the VSM. These were elicited using Pareto analysis and
revealed planning, communications and making progress more visible were factors for
deeper systems analysis.
Applying systems thinking would tame what could emerge as wicked problems when
modelling the hard and soft elements together, understanding the socio-technical complexity
and eliciting synergy by way of the emergent properties will no doubt lead to recognisable
improvements in the value stream. The developments made will provide GKNA with a
unique philosophy for industrialisation and continuous improvement that can be applied to
other composite manufacturing facilities and to future start-up businesses.
56
Exploring The Implications Of Adopting A Systems Approach In Munitions
Technology Development
MRes Student: Rhys Owen
Academic Supervisor: Dr Theo Tryfonas
It appears that munitions technologies are developed largely in an unstructured manner and
projects often drift or fail because of poor understanding of customer needs and how new
technology could fit in with those. The project will investigate overall the potential impact that
a Systems-based transformation of the relevant technology implementation process may
have. The research will provide an insight into the established practices of the sector and will
compare those against state of art equivalent of other industries, such as retailing and
consumer electronics. We will examine relevant models such as push-pull, technology
diffusion and adoption, disruptive technologies etc. and identify transferable elements to the
munitions market. Key objective is to employ a Systems approach through which to
transform the relevant technology implementation, from needs assessment to retirement and
disposal, in a fashion that will take more into account both the market opportunities, as well
as customer needs and true value creation.
57
Dynamic Systems Modelling Applied To Unmanned Systems
MRes Student: Andy Flinn
Supervisor: John Davis
Purpose
The purpose of this project is to investigate current practices in systems modelling and to
apply the methods to a case study of unmanned systems to see what can be learned about
potential system performance, behaviour and constraints.
Background
Unmanned systems are potential candidates for many maritime tasks such as surveillance,
tracking, communications relays, and logistics transport to free up manpower from routine or
tedious tasks allowing naval staff to concentrate on more critical or complex tasks.
Unmanned systems may include one or more unmanned underwater, surface or above
water vehicles each with their own distinct capabilities. Unmanned systems are said to be
ideally suited for jobs that are ―Dull, Dirty, Dangerous, or Deep‖.
Most unmanned systems have low levels of autonomy and are generally remotely controlled
or follow a pre-planned route using way points because the their ability to respond to
unexpected events and to ―fail safe‖ is low. However, there is a lot of research underway
around the world into sensors, decision making and autonomy that will increase the roles
that unmanned systems can undertake in the future.
The benefits expected from unmanned systems include increased endurance, reduced cost,
reduced manning, and greater safety allowing operators to remain at a distance from
danger. However, realising these new systems will require new ways of organising, training,
integrating, operating and supporting maritime systems.
The introduction of unmanned maritime systems will require new command and control
functions, and new planning and decision making tools to make use of increased autonomy
and enable systems to employ cooperative behaviours whilst ensuring the systems operate
within defined safe and legal boundaries.
Approach
The focus for this project will be to establish high level models of new or immature concepts
of operation that can contribute to discussions about future capability such as the
architectures, best mix of systems or technology constraints.
The approach will be to develop systems diagrams for unmanned maritime systems
concepts and the enterprise. A hierarchical process model for unmanned systems will be
used as the basis for more detailed system modelling. Modelling may include system
dynamics models, viable systems models and soft systems models.
The project will establish current practice in model based systems engineering and explore
what tools are appropriate to apply to the test case.
Once developed the intent is to be able to use and refine the models to investigate what we
can learn from them and the systems they represent and what we can learn about areas that
could be improved.
Some of the aspects that will be investigated may include the resilience of unmanned
systems to loss of communications or a component of the system; the benefits of greater
autonomy, and how soft systems elements can be represented; the sensitivity of unmanned
systems performance to other Lines of Development (Training, Equipment, Personnel,
Information, Doctrine, Organisation, Infrastructure, Logistics).
58
Systems Practice In Engineering (SPiE) - Systems Methodology and Tools
PhD student: Katharina Burger
Supervisor: Dr Mike Yearworth
The purpose of the SPiE project is to research what we collectively know about systems
practice in engineering and make a theoretical contribution to the field of Systems Thinking
and practice. The research in the area of systems methodologies and tools will initially focus
on identifying and characterizing the strategies of inquiry, problem-structuring methods and
systems tools that have been used and/or developed to intervene in complex problems
exemplified by the EngD in Systems project portfolio. The intention is to then make this a
broader activity by surveying a wider community of practitioners. We expect that higher-level
knowledge from this examination of engineering systems practice will either be synthesized
into new systems approaches, or integrated into existing methods, tools, or models such as
the Bristol Generic Systems Model. Of considerable importance will be the need to ensure
that systems approaches continue to meet the needs of engineers to make pragmatic,
creative, yet critically reflective choices. In addition, the design of a longitudinal study is
being considered to discover how engineering systems practice is changing over time in
order to establish this process of synthesis and integration as an ongoing research activity.
59
II. Research Papers for the EngD in Systems,
Cohort 3 (Final Year)
Ice Pigging In The Medical Sector; The Use Of Engineered Ice Slurries To
Clean Catheters
D. Ash*1, G. Quarini1, N. Morris2, R. Thompson2, A. Leiper1, D. McBryde1
1.Department of Mechanical Engineering, Queen's Building, University Walk, Bristol BS8 1TR
2. Bristol Urological Institute, Southmead Hospital, Bristol, BS10 5NB
*Email - [email protected]
INTRODUCTION
Ice pigging is a technique developed by the University of Bristol for the removal of fouling
from ducts. The patented process involves propelling multiphase slurry of ice crystals and a
liquid containing a freezing point depressant through process pipework resulting in an
increased surface shear compared to water alone; the increased shear results in enhanced
cleaning of the duct walls, Quarini (2002).
The ice pig displays many benefits over conventional pigging techniques. The versatility of
the process is very attractive, as the pig is able to negotiate complex pipe topologies,
changes in diameter and process equipment whilst maintaining its cleaning capability.
This work focuses on the application of ice pigging to relatively small diameter pipe within
the context of the medical sector. This entails characterising the thermalhydraulic
performance of ice pigging in narrow tubes, in manufacturing the ice pig in controlled
(hygienic) conditions and in delivering the ice pig in a manner which is consistent with
current medical practices.
Ice Slurries and Ice Pigging
The work at the University of Bristol has demonstrated that high ice fraction slurries have
complex rheological behaviour. They are able to maintain a stress even when the strain rate
is zero, essentially behaving as a semi-solid. However, when the stain rate is increased, they
will flow like a fluid enabling the ice slurries to traverse complex topologies, filling all
available volume and spaces and where possible move like a plug displaying its semi-solid
characteristics. This enables the ice slurry to displace fouling material in the containing
geometry and transport it out of the system. Once the process is completed, the ice slurry
will melt and return to its liquid state. The ice slurry consists of fine ice crystals held in a
liquor consisting of water plus a freezing point depressant (FPD). Careful selection of the
FPD can give the ice pig special functional properties; for example, the addition of
hydrochloric acid to clean cementitious material from pipes or biocides to reduce biological
activity within the duct. Both of these have been demonstrated and are finding commercial
applications in the nuclear decommissioning sector and in paints and coating manufacture.
Urinary Catheters
Urinary catheters are widely used throughout the world to control urine discharge from
patients who have either lost this ability or as a temporary measure during operations or
extended medical treatment. Although effective they are known to commonly cause urinary
tract infections (UTIs), which account for 30 to 40% of all healthcare associated infections
and associated costs (Emmerson et al, 1996). Such infections cause unnecessary distress
to patients, delay recovery and increase the chance of mortality. The risk of receiving an
infection increases with the period of time a catheter remains in place. Analysis of medical
data suggests that the risk of infection with an indwelling catheter is 5% per day
accumulating (Tambyah et al, 2002). Each hospital acquired UTI results in an increased
length of stay of 5-6 days in hospital (Plowman et al, 1999) and associated costs.
Fifty percent of patients with indwelling catheters suffer regular encrustation and catheter
blocking (Kohler-Ockmore et. al, 1996) caused by infection of urease producing bacteria
60
such as Proteus Mirabilis which raise the pH of the urine, encouraging the development of
crystalline deposits (Stickler et. al, 1998). As the deposits build up they can obstruct urine
flow eventually leading to painful distension of the bladder due to urinary retention. Once
blocked the catheter must be replaced, causing further patient discomfort due to tissue
abrasion from the deposits during removal and furthering the risk of infection.
A common procedure to reduce the build-up of encrustation and increase catheter life is to
wash out the catheter with an acidic 'catheter maintenance solution' to dissolve the minerals
which have been deposited. However, the procedure is known to have varying levels of
success. Getliffe (2000) suggests the reason for this is that the wash-out technique is unable
to move the encrustations from inside the catheter. The catheter itself holds a very small
volume of the solution, which rapidly becomes saturated with dissolved encrustation
components and reduces in efficacy.
EXPERIMENTAL WORK AND PRELIMINARY RESULTS
Comparison of Shearing Ability of Ice Pigging Verses Wash-out
It is important to establish how much better ice pigging is likely to be than a simple wash-out
procedure. To do this an ice making machine was setup attached to a rig such that ice slurry
could be passed through sample tubes at a constant flow rate and the pressure drop
monitored. The two sample tubes were used that were alternately connected to the rig for
each test consist of two Rüsch AquaFlate 2-way Foley catheters of 2.5 mm internal
diameter, one of which has had the length of narrow tube removed and shall henceforth be
referred to as the ‗nozzle‘. The tubes were allowed to discharge into an open tray, ensuring
that the outlet, sink pressure was atmospheric whilst the pressure up stream of the tubes
was measured. In order to compare the success of the ice pigging with that which could be
achieved with a wash-out solution the test was repeated with the lines full of ethanol solution
alone and the flow rate was varied.
Results
As was to be expected, the pressure drop increases with ice fraction and is consistently
much greater through the catheter than through the nozzle alone. In order to determine the
shear experienced in the length of catheter to be cleaned, a linear trendline was proposed
for both the ‗nozzle‘ data and the ‗catheter‘ data. The one is subtracted from the other to give
an approximation of the average pressure drop across the tube section of the catheter.
At the same flow rate as the ice slurry tests, 2ml/s, the pressure drop for the ethanol solution
is at least two orders of magnitude less than with ice. Extrapolation of the wash-out test
reveals that the ethanol solution would have to flow at over 70ml/s to reach the pressure
drops experienced by the mid-range ice fractions. As pressure loss is directly proportional to
wall shear, it is postulated that the ice pig is much better at cleaning and removing fouling
material in the catheter than simple water flushing.
Preliminary Use of Ice Pigging in an In Vitro Catheter Test
The Bristol Urological Institute, BUI, at Southmead Hospital, set up a catheterised bladder
model as previously described by Stickler (1999). The model consists of a glass
fermentation flask held at 37°C by water jacket, with a Foley catheter inserted and inflated
through an outlet in the base. A solution of artificial urine inoculated with Proteus Mirabilis
was drip fed at a rate of 0.5ml/min into the model and collected via the catheter in a
receiving bag. As in an actual bladder, the geometry of the catheter bulb lead to a residual
volume of solution that was maintained in the model. Six models were set up for testing and
were run for 24 hours to become encrusted before ice pigging.
61
Of the six bladder models, five were
cleaned using ice pigs of increasing
thickness and one was left
uncleaned. For the five pigged
catheters the same volume of fluid
(50 cc) was pushed in the reverse
direction through the catheter, the
cleaning fluid plus any debris which
Figure 1. Sections of Ice Pigged and Control Catheters
it might have displaced and collected
would find its way into the bladder. Once the cleaning had been completed, a process which
took no more than a half a minute, the catheters were removed from the rig and dissected to
examine the conditions of the inside of the catheter tube. A photograph two dissected
catheters is shown in Fig. 1.
DISCUSSION
The results indicate that the ice pig is able to provide enhanced levels of cleaning over the
wash-out procedure. Since the amount of ice pig required to achieve a significant level of
cleaning and debris removal is small, it can easily be accommodated in the bladder where it
will melt and then allowed to flow back out via the catheter. Although the human bladder
contains thermoreceptors, opinion varies as to the ability to perceive temperature variation
within the bladder (Geirsson, 1999). The work of Geirsson (1999) and Deffontaines Rufin
(2010) suggests that temperatures as low as -4°C are difficult to perceive.
It is important that the bladder does not become the dumping ground for solid mater
displaced from the catheter walls. There is a possibility for the citric acid in a bladder washout solution could be used as an FPD to produce an ice slurry from such a fluid. The ‗citric
pig‘ could be used to mechanically move encrustation from the catheter into the bladder
where the pig would melt and gradually dissolve the crystals. This would be an improvement
over current techniques as the crystals, once removed from inside the catheter, would be
exposed to a larger volume of acidic solution which would not become saturated as quickly.
The crystals would also have a larger wetted area once detached from the tube wall and
should dissolve more quickly. The dissolutions could then be expelled be from the bladder
via the catheter.
The ability to extend the life of a catheter and hence reduce the frequency with which they
are changed would not only improve patient quality of life, but reduce the risk of further
trauma. The reduction in the number used could justify the use of a more expensive catheter
such as one impregnated with antiseptic or antibiotic compounds. Such catheters have been
shown to reduce the risk of further infection (Davenport, 2005) but are considerably more
expensive than standard catheters (approximately £8).
PRELIMINARY CONCLUSIONS
Although solutions exist that are capable of dissolving the crystalline deposits that form
blockages within urinary catheters, they are unable to adequately do so whilst the crystals
remain inside the catheter. Current wash-out techniques are unable to generate the required
shear to move the crystals out of the catheter tube and into the bladder.
From the preliminary results it is clear that ice pigging is able to introduce a much higher wall
shear rates than the wash-out procedure. It also appears that we are able to manufacture ice
slurries capable of flowing through the complex and narrow topologies of commercial
catheters. Further, on the preliminary in vitro experiments, the ice pig gave very encouraging
results, suggesting that the technique might well be adapted, improved and optimised to
provide an elegant simple method of cleaning indwelling catheters, and thus reduce the
propensity for patients to develop UTI complications whilst increasing the time span between
catheter exchanges.
62
REFERENCES
Davenport, K., Keeley, F.X., 2005. Evidence for the use of silver-alloy-coated urethral catheters, Journal of
Hospital Infection, Volume 60, Issue 4, Pages 298-303
Deffontaines Rufin, S., Jousse, M., Verollet, D., Guinet, A., Ismael, S.S. and Amarenco, G., 2010. Cold
perception of the bladder during ice water test. Study on 120 patients. Annals of Physical and Rehabilitation
Medicine, 53, 9, 559-567
Geirsson G., Lindström, S. and Fall, M., 1999. The bladder cooling reflex and the use of cooling as stimulus to
the lower urinary tract. J Urol, 162, pp. 1890–1896
Getliffe, K.A., Hughes, S.C. and Le Claire, M., 2000. The Dissolution of Urinary Catheter Encrustation. BJU
International, 85, 60-64.
Kohler-Ockmore J, Feneley RCL. Long-term catheterisation of the bladder: prevalence and morbidity. Br J Urol
1996; 77: 347–51.
Emmerson, A., Enstone, J., and Griffin, M. et al.; 1996, The Second National Prevalence Survey of
Infections in Hospitals- Overview of Results. Journal of Hospital Infection, 32 (3): 175-190
Plowman, R., Graves, N., and Griffin, M.; 1999. The Socio-Economic Burden of Hospital Acquired Infection.
London: Public Health Laboratory Service.
Quarini G. L., 2002. Ice-pigging to reduce and remove fouling and to achieve clean-in-place. Applied Thermal
Engineering 22, 747–753.
Stickler, D., Morris, N., Moreno, M. C. and Sabbuba, N., 1998, Studies on the formation of crystalline bacterial
biofilms on urethral catheters. Eur J Clin Microbiol Infect Dis, 17: 649.
Stickler, D., Morris, N. and Winters, C, 1999, Simple Physical Model to Study Formation and Physiology of
Biofilms on Urethral Catheters. Methods in Enzymology; 310: 494-501.
Tambyah, P., Knasinski, V. and Maki, D.; 2002. The Direct Costs of Nosocomial Catheter-Associated Urinary
Tract Infection in an Era of Managed Care. Infection Control & Hospital Epidemiology, 23 (1): 27-31
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The author wishes to thank the EPSRC for financial support and the University of Bristol
EngD Systems Centre.
BIOGRAPHY
Dominic Ash studied Mechanical Engineering at the University of Bristol before joining the
Systems Engineering Industrial Doctorate Centre in 2008. His work is sponsored by PCIP, a
University spin-out company. PCIP develops and disseminates the novel industrial cleaning
technology of ice pigging. His work involves investigating the potential and feasibility of ice
pigging in pipes of small diameter including those used in drinks dispensing and medicine.
His academic supervisor is Dr. Hind Saidani-Scott, Mechanical Engineering, University of
Bristol and his industrial supervisor is Professor Joe Quarini, PCIP.
63
Modelling Concurrent Technical Systems for Formal Analysis with FDR while
Mitigating State- and Transition-Space Explosion Issues
Research Engineer: Stephen Bryant1
Academic Supervisor: Kerstin Eder2
1
2
Industrial Doctorate Centre in Systems*, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1TR, UK
Department of Computer Science, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1UB, UK
Introduction
`Failure-Divergence Refinement' [1] (FDR) is a tool for analysing systems that have been
modelled using a machine readable version of `Communicating Sequential Processes' [2]
(CSP). CSP is a process algebra suited to describing systems which consist of concurrent
processes that need to communicate with each other.
Modelling a real-time, concurrent system using CSP has many advantages. For example it is
possible to formally prove or disprove assertions about those models' behaviour, and so
inform redesigns and provide documentation. It is also possible to use representations of
those models, for example block diagrams, to communicate with stakeholders who are not
familiar with formal methods.
There are limitations to this approach, mostly centred around the limited problem sizes that
FDR can handle. The reason for this limitation is the way that FDR represents and analyses
CSP models internally, with more complex models requiring greater memory resources and
taking more time.
Sometimes a small increase in the complexity of the model description can result in a large
increase in the number of states or transitions (changes that affect state) that the model
represents. While there is no formal definition for when changes like this constitute a `statespace' or `transition-space' explosion, the effect of these `explosions' can quickly result in a
system that FDR cannot analyse within a reasonable time or memory footprint.
Mitigation Options
There are various ways to potentially mitigate against these state- and transition-space
explosion issues.
One option is to simplify the model(s) to be checked to just their pertinent features. This can
require changes that are not immediately intuitive, however clearly justifying and
documenting these changes can mitigate against this.
Another option is to use compression on the model, as outlined by Roscoe [3]. This
increases the time that FDR takes to prepare the model for analysis, while reducing the time
the final analysis takes. For the results in this paper the ‗diamond‘ compression technique
was used.
It is possible to improve the efficiency of the model checker. Kharmeh et al. [4] have recently
done just this, improving the performance of the analysis of a model by improving FDR's
internal set creation and access mechanism.
Increasing the processing power and memory available for analysing the problem can assist
the model checker. However, each component added to a model can have a significant (for
example exponential) effect on the state- and/or transition-space, so this effort has
diminishing returns.
A reductionist approach can also be taken by breaking the task into smaller, more
manageable pieces. Each of these pieces can then be analysed separately, reducing the
overall state- and transition-space that FDR needs to tackle. Proving that these individual
components would work together correctly in the final system without having to analyse their
64
combination, which would defeat the point of the initial reduction, is then a challenge.
Fortunately CSP itself provides a solution in some situations through allowing a simpler
higher-level process to be substituted for a more realistic lower-level one in the complete
model, if their pertinent external behaviours can be shown to be equivalent.
Results
The first two of these techniques have been used in the analysis of the communication
structure of a simple controller that operates a system with an equal number of sensors and
actuators.
Table 1 shows the sizes of the state- and transition-spaces that FDR analyses when using
each modelling technique. The compression technique is applied the model created by the
application of simplification, so the ‗Compressed‘ results show the effects of the two
techniques combined. The ‗Mean Increase‘ value gives an indication of how fast the stateand transition-spaces increase as the number of sensor-actuator pairs increases.
SensorActuator
Pairs
1
2
3
4
5
Unmodified
Transition
s
Analysed
221
339
1818
3592
States
Analysed
20922
261866
65214
1219960
3310663
21717756
6
Mean
Increase
9.41
14.83
15.61
15.22
Simplification
Transition Mean
s
Increase
Analysed
104
181
5.20
474
1058
8.05
3124
10059
States
Analysed
23298
105064
178980
1084341
14.71
41566569
366125665
8.95
9.00
Compressed
Transition Mean
s
Increase
Analysed
27
51
1.81
43
103
2.11
75
255
States
Analysed
139
703
202
1541
8.89
1383666
10891250
2.31
1.82
2.44
394
4521
Table 1: Increases of the state- and transition-spaces of the various models as the number of sensor/actuator
pairs increase, where:
The simplification technique results in a system that consistently increases its complexity
approximately half as fast as the unmodified system as the number of sensor-actuator pairs
increases. Similarly the compression technique results in a system that consistently
increases its complexity approximately one quarter as fast as the simplified system. This
results in FDR needing to analyse a compressed system that is approximately five orders of
magnitude simpler than its unmodified counterpart after only six iterations.
Conclusions
It can be seen that both manual (simplification) and automated (compression) techniques
can provide a significant contribution to reducing the complexity of the models that FDR
generates for analysis. Neither of these techniques solves the underlying state- or transitionspace explosion problem, however they increase the complexity of problems that can be
analysed, delaying the point at which time or space restrictions take effect, which allows for
more complex systems to be tackled than would be possible without their contributions.
Further Work
All of the techniques discussed in this paper are being applied to a model of an industrial,
real-time control system, as a necessary step towards evaluating design choices for that
system. Verification of those models will be performed using automated analysis from tools
like FDR. Information from the experience of using these techniques on such a system will
provide a useful reference for future users of CSP modelling.
It will also be necessary to validate the model through discussion with those who work with
the existing control system, which can be facilitated through representing the model using
various diagrammatic means. The results of this will be fed back into the model as well as
informing future collaborative validations of CSP models.
65
References
[1] Formal Systems (Europe) and Oxford University Computing Laboratory. Failure-Divergence Refinement. 9th
edition, October 2010.
[2] C. A. R. Hoare. Communicating sequential processes. Prentice-Hall, Inc., 1985.
[3] A.W. Roscoe. Understanding Concurrent Systems. Springer-Verlag New York, Inc., New York, NY, USA, 1st
edition, 2010.
[4] Suleiman Abu Kharmeh, Kerstin Eder, and David May. Complexity of hardware design and model-checking:
An asymptotic analysis of state-machine metrics. University of Bristol, March 2012.
Stephen Bryant
Stephen Bryant graduated from the University of Bristol in 2008 with an
MEng (Hons) in Engineering Design, specialising in Software Engineering.
Over the course of this undergraduate masters he worked for Renishaw Plc
on multiple occasions, including spending two Summers working on various
projects within their Special Projects department. He also worked for
Motorola in Swindon as part of his masters during the academic year 20056, developing proof of concept software applications for mobile phones.
He joined Renishaw Plc in 2008 as an Engineering Doctorate Research Engineer to look into
improving real-time control software so that it would perform well on emerging multiple-core
computer architectures. This work has focused on the theory of concurrency, and the
challenges of designing systems whose complexity makes verification difficult. It draws on
formal methods to manage that complexity, providing guarantees and performance
estimates for software designs. Integrating these methods and their results into the company
is also a challenge, to ensure that their full benefits are realised without introducing cultural
or maintenance difficulties to established procedures or software
66
Multi-Objective Optimisation For Low-Carbon Building Design
- A Summary Of Approaches
1
Ralph Evins1,2
Buro Happold, 17 Newman Street, London, W1T 1PD, UK
2
University of Bristol, Tyndall Avenue, Bristol, BS8 1TH.
Abstract
Four case studies are presented showing the application of systems ideas to the framing
and solving of problems. The areas covered are framework development (through
consideration of layers and the use of Design of Experiments and system decomposition),
decision-making aids (including lifecycle and risk issues), holistic consideration of the system
(via co-simulation), and system exploration (by means of visualisation).
Introduction
This paper summarises and examines the application of systems ideas to four areas of the
author‘s Engineering Doctorate research. Each section focuses on one publication by the
author that demonstrates a systems approach to the problem under consideration. The
specifics of each problem are not given in detail – the reader is referred to the original
publication. An appraisal of the systems principles involved is given for each section.
Framework development
An optimisation framework was developed for optimisation of domestic buildings using the
Standard Assessment Procedure (SAP) (Evins, Pointer, et al. 2012). This applied the
systems ideas of layers and boundaries (see (Blockley and Godfrey 2000). The framework
progressively refined the scope of the problem, enabling the correct tool to be used for each
level of optimisation (see Figure 1)
The first stage applied a Design of Experiments (DoE) process to all 103 variables of the
procedure. DoE is a means of estimating the influence of each variable on a selected output.
This relied on an extensive decomposition of the calculation system into isolated subsystems
(see Figure 2). The original system of 103 variables was split into 25 interconnected
subsystems by introducing 40 intermediate variables. Limiting the interconnections is critical
to reducing the number of evaluations needed for DoE: they full system would have required
around 1031 evaluations whereas the decomposed set of systems required 76,924
evaluations.
The second and third stages of the framework applied a multi-objectives optimisation
algorithm to the most influential variables of the procedure. The second stage optimised the
21 most significant variables at a coarse resolution; the third stage optimised the 14
variables that showed non-linear behaviour at a finer resolution. This iterative process of
narrowing the scope was necessary to keep the number of evaluations to a minimum,
allowing fast convergence to the optimal solutions.
Figure 1
Optimisation framework
Figure 2
Decomposition for design-of-experiments
67
Decision-making aid
A decision-making tool was developed for the selection of Combined Heat and Power (CHP)
plant (Evins, Pointer, and Vaidyanathan 2011a). This included temporal simulation (at an
hourly resolution) over the plant lifetime (20 years) in order to accurately assess project
performance over the whole system lifecycle. It also included an advanced sensitivity
analysis, to allow project risks to be assessed by decision-makers. The optimisation process
was conducted under 12 scenarios covering economic and environmental assumptions, and
the results summarised the degree of deviation from the obtained solutions (shown in Figure
3).
Figure 3
Performance analysis of CHP operation under 12 scenarios.
Holistic optimisation
A holistic optimisation of two interconnected systems was conducted for a Double Skin
Facade (DSF) (Evins, Pointer, and Vaidyanathan 2011b). The first system defined the
configuration of the design; the second system governed the control of the design in use.
Both systems were co-simulated to enable holistic optimisation of overall performance. A
schematic of the design is shown in Figure 4; each item had both design and control
parameters. Holistic consideration of the whole system was vital to obtaining meaningful
results.
Figure 4
Schematic of double skin facade for configuration and control.
68
System exploration
An investigation into visualisation of complex datasets was conducted as part of a paper
concerned with how visual data exploration can aid sustainable building design (Evins,
Knott, et al. 2012). Design space exploration is a critical output of simulation work and
particularly optimisation. Advanced visualisation techniques are of great benefit in
understanding the meaning and interactions present in large datasets. An example is shown
in Figure 5 of the visualisation of optimisation results for communication to the design team.
Figure 5
Interactive tool to display solar gain and daylight availability around a building form.
Conclusions
In summarising the systems ideas used in various research projects, this work aims to
provide an overview of some useful systems concepts for projects involving optimisation and
simulation problems. The systems approaches have proved useful in overcoming challenges
of scope definition and conceptual layering, complexity management, lifecycle and risk
analysis, holistic consideration and data exploration and design space understanding.
Acknowledgements
Funding for this research has been provided by EPSRC and Buro Happold Ltd. The author is
a research engineer with Buro Happold and with the Industrial Doctorate Centre in Systems,
Universities of Bristol and Bath, UK.
References
Blockley, David, and P.S. Godfrey. 2000. Doing It Differently: Systems for Rethinking Construction. Thomas
Telford Ltd.
Evins, Ralph, Daniel Knott, Philip Pointer, and Stuart Burgess. 2012. ―Visual Data Exploration in the Field of
Sustainable Building Design.‖ In Proceedings: Building Simulation and Optimisation 2012 (Submitted).
Evins, Ralph, Philip Pointer, and Ravi Vaidyanathan. 2011a. ―Optimisation for CHP and CCHP Decision-Making.‖
In Proceedings: Building Simulation 2011.
———. 2011b. ―Multi-Objective Optimisation of the Configuration and Control of a Double-Skin Facade.‖ In
Proceedings: Building Simulation 2011.
Evins, Ralph, Philip Pointer, Ravi Vaidyanathan, and Stuart Burgess. 2012. ―A Case Study Exploring Regulated
Energy Use in Domestic Buildings Using Design-of-experiments and Multi-objective Optimisation.‖ Building and
Environment 54 (0) (August): 126–136. doi:10.1016/j.buildenv.2012.02.012.
69
Ralph Evins:
Ralph is nearing the end of an Engineering Doctorate with Buro Happold
titled Multi-Objective Optimisation for Low-Carbon Building Design.
Reducing the carbon emissions of buildings requires the resolution of
conflicts between different aspects of the design; computational simulation
allows adjustment to find solutions to trade-offs for a given set of criteria.
However, designs are frequently improved through ‗informed trial-anderror‘, or computational models are used only to verify design decisions. In
appropriate areas, tools like genetic algorithms for multi-criteria design
optimisation have made the design process more efficient and more
accurate.
Ralph has applied these techniques to commercial projects including housing developments
in the UK, skyscrapers in the Middle East and mid-rise developments in Egypt. He has
produced tools that can be linked to a variety of simulation programs to provide optimisation
of a wide range of problems. He has also developed numerous scripts and tools to aid in
other areas of simulation work. He has published a range of academic works, and is aiming
for a final total of 4 journal papers and 6 conference papers. The academic publications and
company reports will form his portfolio for the Engineering Doctorate, to be submitted in
November.
70
De-risking the Implementation of Innovative and Sustainable Construction
Materials
Research Engineer: Ellen Grist
Academic Supervisors: Dr. Andrew Heath and Dr. Kevin Paine
Industrial Supervisors: Dr. James Norman
Research objective
The high level objective of this research programme is to identify opportunities to ‗de-risk‘ the
introduction of innovative and sustainable materials in construction.
Context and introduction
In response to a recognised need for sustainable solutions in the built environment, there is
widespread research being undertaken into the development of new ‗low-impact‘
construction materials. This project focuses on the process by which these new materials
move from the research laboratory into use on commercial construction projects. It is
recognised that these materials cannot realise benefits, and thus cannot be described as
‗sustainable‘, whilst they‘re sat on a bench in the laboratory. This research argues that
implementation or ‗applied innovation‘ is perhaps the greatest challenge facing the
construction industry in it‘s pursuit of an increasingly sustainable built environment.
Ramboll, a multidisciplinary engineering and design consultancy, prides itself on it‘s
commitment to innovation. Ramboll‘s reputation for delivering innovative solutions, coupled
with the demand for bespoke solutions, necessitated by the one-off nature of construction
projects, creates a platform for implementing new material technologies.
But innovation in construction is not a passive nor a straightforward process. Far from it, as
Kline and Rosenberg (1986) suggest ‗the systems that make up the innovation process are
among the most complex known (both technically and socially).‘ Writing specifically about
the transition to sustainable construction, Rohracher (2001) puts further emphasis on the
social nature of the process, ‗the challenge of green building is only to a minor extent the
search for enhanced technical systems. What is much more challenging is the social
embedding and the socially interactive process of designing, constructing and using
buildings‘.
Getting buy-in from the design team and navigating the obstacles that threaten the adoption
of new technologies, is thought to demand new mindsets and additional management and
leadership skills (Govindarajan and Trimble, 2010). Looking at the challenge of
implementation through a ‗soft systems‘ lens has highlighted the socially-interactive nature of
innovation. The complexity that irrational and idiosyncratic human actors inevitably bring to
design and decision making processes, is the starting point for this systems research.
Research methodology
This research project takes the development of a new hydraulic lime-concrete, a material
with a potentially lower environmental impact to Portland cement concrete, as a vehicle for
investigating the implementation process.
Laboratory based testing and development of this innovative material technology has been
undertaken in parallel with project-specific case study research. Conducting these two
research strands concurrently has had a marked affect on the overall direction of
programme. Specific test results have created opportunities for lime-concrete use in practice
and conversations with project stakeholders have informed subsequent testing and
development.
Two real-world ‗potential-limecrete‘ projects have been used to gather qualitative data about
the process by which clients, designers and other stakeholders consider, choose and specify
materials for buildings. Real-time project data, captured in emails, memos and reports, is
71
being supplemented with transcribed design-team meetings and interviews to richly
describe, and cast light on, the natural unfolding of the story.
Case study 1: Ralph Allen School, Applied Learning Centre
Ralph Allen School in Bath expressed their desire for a sustainable and
educational building for their new Applied Learning Centre. The project
philosophy, captured in the Stage C report, read: ‘to demonstrate what can be
achieved with the resources on site’ and also ‘to realise an innovative
solution, which inspires pupils to be optimistic about what can be achieved’.
After unearthing a band of naturally weathered limestone, below the proposed
new building, Ramboll developed a bespoke ‘Ralph Allen Limecrete’ mix,
utilising the site material as aggregate. After a lengthy design development
and detailed proof of feasibility of this solution, the concept was abandoned
at the last minute. Speaking about events in an interview, the client remarked,
‘it is not a happy story.’ Reflecting on the unfolding process, in dialogue with
all those involved, is anticipated to reveal a number of opportunities to have
positively influenced the ending of this innovation story.
Ethnographic in style this longitudinal research project has been made possible by the
intimate involvement of the researcher in the design team. Conscious and open swapping of
‗hats‘ has been necessary to distinguish between professional and academic research
activities and importantly to build trusting working relationships with the design team, who
are also the research subjects.
Ralph Allen School, Applied Learning Centre
72
Case study 2: Wickfield Lane House
Wickfield Lane House, is to be a private dwelling in the Cotswolds with a 30m
span lime-concrete shell roof. In this project the desire for innovation is thought
to have little to do with the client’s environmental aspirations, but rather that
planning permission for the development is hinged on it being considered a
‘truly outstanding and groundbreaking’ design (ODPM, 2004). As evidence of
the technical feasibility of this solution a building control submission has been
made to support the client’s planning application.
As well as having revealed insights into the engineering of structures with
original and limited test data, this project is anticipated to reveal more about the
relationship between the technical feasibility and the social appetite for novel
solutions. The project is currently awaiting planning approval amid reform of
the UK planning system.
This practitioner research is revealing what as-yet untried solutions mean for individual
construction clients and the process of writing a narrative account, of the two separate
innovation stories, is being used as a vehicle for exploring the challenges associated with
the application of novel technologies. An in depth study of the design process, at a project
level, is revealing a number of insights - not least the centrality of ‗risk‘ or ‗perceived risks‘,
which is briefly discussed here as an example.
Analysis and Results: Innovation and risk
It is appreciated that the use of any innovative technology in a commercial project
environment is risky. Risks associated with the technical performance of the new product are
significantly increased when it is transferred into a new environment, integrated into a new
system and when it has to meet the requirements of a wider range of users. There are also
significant commercial risks, with companies staking their reputation and market share on
the successful implementation of new technologies.
The two case study projects, introduced in this paper, have evidenced a further risk; a less
tangible and more insidious risk, that is the harmful/helpful affect of the implementation
process on the people involved. The risk that the process itself might be detrimental to the
agency, optimism and engagement of those individuals that act to shape it; and future
processes. The following quote, taken from an interview with one project client, evidences
this point.
“Every time you do embrace a change you have to be prepared, I think, to be disappointed - really, and
to compromise, everything single thing we do, and this is not just the building, is about that. You have an
ambition, you have a place that you want to go to and you think, oh well I’m not going to get there - what
can I retain, from the gem of what we dreamt of, and thought of, that will still actually meet that in some
way or another?” (Client. (pers.comm), 19 April 2012)
Academics subscribing to the Social Construction of Technology (SCOT) described the
‗human-shaped‘ nature of innovation processes (Pinch and Bijker, 1984). Building on this
argument this research has suggested that such processes, or stories, are also inherently
‗human-shaping‘.
73
Progress and further work
Analysis of the data is ongoing, paced by the processes it is seeking to study in real-time.
The ‗conclusions‘ are typically are as entwined and evolving as the process itself. Whereas
the lime-concrete is groundbreaking in it‘s scientific niche; the challenges of adopting it are
expected, and indeed hoped, to echo the lived-experience of numerous construction
professionals. Inquiring into, and subsequently narrating, these two innovation-stories is
bringing weight to existing theories, casting light on new conceptualisations and calling to
our attention ideas from different disciplines. These insights are by very nature subjective but
are nonetheless held to be stepping-stones for imagining new ways of working in the
construction industry.
It is envisaged that the results of this research will both further the development of limecrete
as a structural material, but also provide valuable insights into the implementation process.
Such insights will be used to identify opportunities to intervene, or to design and facilitate
social processes, with the aim of protecting both the technological outcome and the people
involved.
References
Govindarajan, V. & Trimble, C. (2010) The other side of Innovation: solving the execution
challenge. Harvard Business Review Press, Boston.
Kline, S.J. & Rosenberg, N. (1986) An overview of innovation. The positive sum strategy:
Harnessing technology for economic growth, 275, 305.
Office of the Deputy Prime Minister, (2004). Planning Policy Statement 7: Sustainable
Development
in
Rural
Areas.
ODPM
Available
at
URL:
www.communities.gov.uk/documents/planningandbuilding/pdf/147402.pdf
{accessed
10.04.12}
Pinch, T.J. & Bijker, W.E. (1984) The social construction of facts and artifacts: or how the
sociology of science and the sociology of technology might benefit each other. Social studies
of Science, 14, 399-441.
Rohracher, H. (2001) Managing the technological transition to sustainable construction of
buildings: a socio-technical perspective. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 13,
137-150.
This work is supported by the EPSRC funded Industrial Doctorate Centre in Systems, the
Universities of Bath & Bristol (Grant EP/G037353/1) and Ramboll
74
Ellen Grist
Research Engineer
[email protected]
Ellen Grist joined Ramboll, a multidisciplinary engineering design
consultancy, in February 2009, having graduated with a master's degree in
Civil and Architectural Engineering from the University of Bath in June 09.
She is now in her final year of a four year EngD, in which she is currently
undertaking industry based, doctorate level research into the ‗Implementation of Sustainable
Construction Materials‘.
Her responsibilities in Ramboll include; being up to date with current research and the latest
commercial innovations in the development of sustainable forms of construction, assisting
project engineers and other members of the design team in the appropriate application of
sustainable construction materials and specific materials testing.
Ellen‘s lab-based research has focused on developing a high performance hydraulic limeconcrete as a potentially low environmental impact alternative to Portland cement concrete
for modern structural applications. In particular she is investigating the effect of industrial byproducts as additions to hydraulic lime-concrete, in particular the potential benefits of these
constituent materials to enhance the strength, rate of strength development and durability of
lime-concrete.
75
Improving the Understanding of What Represents Value to Inform Project
Decision Making
Phil Hampshire1,2, Professor Paul Goodwin2, Dr. Theo Tryfonas3, Celia Way1
1. Buro Happold, Camden Mill, Bath, BA2 3DQ; 2. University of Bath, School of Management;
3. University of Bristol, Department of Civil Engineering
Motivation & Context
Austin et al. (2010) state ‗value delivery is the goal of all projects‘, but what represents
value? Many would argue that this is a design that best meets the requirements of the
project. However, priorities are often not made clear and the requirement documentation
may be unrealistic, or unrepresentative of the thoughts of the wider project stakeholders.
These issues often leave designers asking; ‘where should we focus our efforts to give true
‘best value’?’
This research seeks to quantify what represents value for a project and its stakeholders
through applying a combination of techniques developed from academic disciplines. It is
intended that the resultant defined approach can then be used to give a well grounded set of
criteria on which to base decisions with respect to sustainable design options. Through such
approaches the value of sustainable design options can be considered through what
represents value from a holistic perspective. Some of the results from a trial application of
the approach, developed on a case study project, are presented.
Methodology
The situations in which sustainability consultants and engineers have to make decisions with
respect to value and sustainability exhibit the characteristics of hard decisions (Mingers and
Rosenhead 2004). Such problems can rarely be addressed from just one type of research
method. Therefore the research has used a multi-method approach, utilising a plurality of
methods, both qualitative and quantitative, within real-world interventions (Mingers and
Brocklesby, 1997).
The approach developed builds upon techniques drawn from a comprehensive and crossdisciplinary review of the literature, and further developed through consultation with industry
professionals within the sponsoring organization and its sister company Happold Consulting.
The first stage of the approach involves circulating a questionnaire to understand the
stakeholders‘ opinions on what represents value to them. The questionnaire includes a
generic aspect which seeks to understand peoples‘ fundamental values. This is based on
the Schwartz Values Survey (Schwartz, S. H. and P. Z. Mark, 1992) adapted for the use in
construction by (Mills, G., S. Austin, et al. 2009) to understand the fundamental values of the
stakeholders of the project. The questionnaire also includes a project specific aspect which
seeks to understand which requirements from the project brief are key priorities. It offers the
advantage that stakeholders can give their opinions anonymously, without the influence of
internal politics or power structures. The results of the questionnaire are then analysed to
gain a deeper understanding of what represents value for the project. Diversity can be
shown through plotting individuals‘ thoughts and the collective thoughts of different
stakeholder groups on a radar graph to show variances and alignment in priorities. At this
stage of the process, the designer should also analyse the project requirements and look for
potential conflicts and win-win opportunities. The relationships between the requirements
and the stakeholders can also be tied back to the generic values of the values survey. The
relationships can be well represented using causal maps, with green arrows representing
positive ‗win-win‘ relationships and red arrows representing ‗potential conflicts‘.
However, it is important to understand that whilst this initial process can be useful to identify
agreement and disagreement amongst stakeholders and show relationship requirements, it
does not provide the deeper understanding and learning which is required to inform decision
making in the project context. Therefore the results and analysis from the first stage of the
process are then taken to a workshop and provide ‗boundary objects‘ around which value
76
can be discussed (Whyte, J. and S. Lobo, 2010). Boundary objects explicitly state a set of
results openly and allow a common understanding to be developed. They also allow
opinions and knowledge to be openly stated without people having to state their own
thoughts and position, which can reduce conflict. This aspect is considered important to gain
a mutual understanding of what represents value and also collectively learn of potential
conflicts between stakeholder groups.
The technique of speed storming (Joyce et. al 2010) is then used to ask what issues are
there with the current situation building and how the new design could improve upon this in
their opinion. The advantages of speed storming in comparison to ‗brainstorming‘ are that
everyone can be involved in the process as people discuss their thoughts in pairs. It also
helps militate against groupthink and allows a variety of opinions to be expressed on post-it
notes. The point of this is to explore what is important from a different angles, in order to
understand the project‘s real priorities.
Results from case study application
Figures 1, 2 and 3 show some of the resulting output and analysis from the initial stage of
the approach outlined above. Responses to the survey distributed amongst stakeholder
groups were received from 4 of the management team, 4 teachers, 9 governors and 4
design team members resulting in a much wider perspective than is typically achieved in a
design situation. Figure 1 shows the individual stakeholder values and how through simple
averages, a project culture can be defined. Standard deviations were also calculated to
show the disagreement amongst stakeholders. The project brief had a strong sustainability
theme, however Figure 1 shows the stakeholder values related to ‗protecting the
environment‘ and ‗unity with nature‘ were not high scoring. This provided a discussion point
in the workshop around what was meant by ‗sustainability‘ for this project.
Figure 1: From Individual Values to Project Values through analysis.
Figure 2 shows that the design team was not necessarily focusing on requirements
considered of value to the stakeholders. It also provides a potential way of ranking the
requirements on a project and demonstrating where the design team should focus efforts.
Simple causal maps then show relationships between requirements and how sustainability
considerations align to provide potential ‗win-wins‘ across requirements and ‗possible
conflicts‘ between requirements and sustainability related issues. This then allows the client
to think about sustainability in relation to what is important to them and also relate these to
their stakeholders‘ values made explicit through values survey and ranked requirements.
77
Figure 2: Excerpt from Requirements Ranking Table. A score of 1 represents the most important ranks.
Figure 3. Causal Mapping to simply show the relationships between requirements
Conclusions & Industry Relevance
A framework has been developed to gain a greater understanding of what is considered of
value to the project stakeholders and make priorities explicit for the design team to see. This
was developed from academic techniques from a variety of disciplines, and has been refined
through internal testing within the sponsoring organization and within the design stages of a
case study project. External feedback from the client was positive and they stated that they
would be keen to undertake the approach on future projects. The approach has currently
been described in project bid material in the sponsoring organization with success leading to
an adapted version being used on a current project. It could potentially offer a way of
assessing sustainable design options in relation to project value.
References
Austin, S., D. Thomson, et al. (2010). VALiD An approach to value delivery that integrates stakeholder judgement
into the design process.
Joyce, C. K., K. E. Jennings, et al. (2010). "Getting Down to Business: Using Speedstorming to Initiate Creative
Cross-Disciplinary Collaboration." Creativity and Innovation Management 19(1): 57-67.
Mills, G., S. Austin, et al. (2009). "Applying a Universal Content and Structure of Values in Construction
Management." Journal of Business Ethics 90(4): 473-501.
Mingers, J. and Brocklesby, J .(1997) Multimethodology: Towards a framework for mixing methodologies,
Omega, 25, 489-509.
Mingers, J. and J. Rosenhead (2004). "Problem structuring methods in action." European Journal of Operational
Research 152(3): 530-554.
Schwartz, S. H. and P. Z. Mark (1992). Universals in the Content and Structure of Values: Theoretical Advances
and Empirical Tests in 20 Countries. Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, Academic Press. 25: 1-65.
78
Whyte, J. and S. Lobo (2010). "Coordination and control in project-based work: digital objects and infrastructures
for delivery." Construction Management and Economics 28(6): 557 - 567.
Phil Hampshire MEng (Hons)
Phil joined Buro Happold‘s Sustainability team in 2008 after graduating with
a first class degree in Civil Engineering from the University of Bristol. He is
currently undertaking an Engineering Doctorate (EngD) looking at how to
make more sustainable and higher value decisions with respect to roofs.
Phil‘s research is split into two interrelated strands. One strand involves
developing tools and techniques aimed at engaging stakeholders in the design process.
Such techniques are aimed at identifying stakeholder values in order to better define what
value means in a particular context. This is complemented with experience of novel
facilitation techniques to increase productivity and creativity in the workshop environment.
These tools have been developed using leading academic research whilst been grounded
and tested in the project arena. The second strand of his research is looking at more
sustainable roof systems and how to select the best roof for a project.
Phil has worked on a wide range of projects since joining Buro Happold, from individual
building systems to large scale masterplans. His work has focused on decision making, roof
selection and the design of renewable energy systems. His time is spent undertaking both
project and research work that aligns with client needs. The final product is research that is
applicable for use now on real world projects.
Through his research, Phil has strong links with the Universities of Bath and Bristol. He is a
guest lecturer on Sustainable Building Design at the University of Bristol and has also
lectured students at the Schumacher Institute. He also supervises undergraduate research
projects.
79
Measurement Systems Integration for Large Scale Manufacturing
Amir KayaniI; Prof Paul MaropoulosIII; Mark SummersI; Dr Richard BurgueteII
I
II
III
– Manufacturing Research & Technology, Airbus Operations Ltd, New Filton House, Filton, Bristol –
BS99 7AR
– Experimental Mechanics & Test, Airbus Operations Ltd, New Filton House, Filton, Bristol – BS99 7AR
– Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Bath, Claverton Down, Bath – BA2 7AY
Introduction
This research paper looks at ‗Measurement Systems Integration‘ for the large scale
manufacturing industry. In an effort to address this broad topic, there are a number of mainly
dimensional metrology themes being actively pursued within the Airbus Manufacturing
Research & Technology (R&T) portfolio. These themes are based mainly on fulfilling
industrial needs and requirements. Progressing with these themes, the outputs are relevant
both to the ‘Industrial’ as well as the ‘academic’ context. A view of the overall Airbus
‗metrology assisted assembly‘ (MAA) portfolio is as follows (figure 1):
Figure 1 – Airbus Manufacturing R&T Metrology Assisted Assembly portfolio
Through the figure 1 schematic, it can be observed that the key components associated with
measurement system integration are, system integration and then the validation of the
measurement output within the context of the overall process.
Background
In view of the overall Airbus MAA portfolio, a state of the art review for processes associated
with Airbus manufacturing interest was conducted. This was a large collaborative effort
engaging various academics, industrialists and suppliers etc. The state of the art study was
divided mainly into two segments associated with MAA i.e., ‗MAA processes‘ and ‗MAA
technologies‘. Further, to this state of the art capture, a roadmap for MAA was then
generated, which was based on the emerging themes and trends evident from the state of
the reports and outputs. An example of this roadmap is shown below (figure 2):
80
Figure 2 – A view of the MAA roadmap as an extract from the state of the art reports
Research Progression
Through the conducted state of the art review and the generated roadmap, then it was
required for an appropriate research question to be identified. This was to help set the
research direction and parameters associated with this broad topic of Measurement Systems
Integration. The proposed research question in terms of topics and sub-topics (i.e.,
questions and sub-questions) are given below:
Topic 1 – How best could metrology systems be embedded within the context of
manufacturing shopfloor systems integration and evaluation?
Sub-topic – Can metrology be used to influence factory performance metrics i.e, for Airbus
these are safety, quality, cost, delivery and people (SQCDP)?
Topic 2 – How to integrate metrology for purposes of validating functional performance
established through design (e.g, aerodynamics) criteria?
Sub-topic – Can desired manufactured features be firstly measured and then evaluated
directly through the acquired raw point cloud measurement data from the aero profile
structure?
Topic 1:
In view of the topic 1 question and the relevant sub-question, then here the process of
integrating metrology within the manufacturing shopfloor process was of interest. A project
most suitably aligned with this activity from the wider MAA portfolio (figure 1) is ‗metrology
enhanced tooling‘. The main objective for this project was to understand metrology
integration in view of conducting large fixture conformance checks, this is both in terms of
detail gap and step checks within the fixture as well as a global conformance check of the
overall fixture. The desired industrial output is to have a mechanism of conducting a quick
fixture check in terms of a RAG (Red, Amber and Green) status as a go or no-go indication
of the fixture being within conformance or not.
The most desirable and optimum position is for there to be no re-certification of fixture
checks required, as this process is deemed a bottleneck during product build with the fixture
usually needing to be de-commissioning for this purpose. Alternatively if there was a process
whereby the fixture was to be regularly checked prior to each wing build activity, then this
would enable a better understanding of fixture conformance for each product build, whereby
the only time a more thorough re-certification or check of fixture would be required, is if a key
point (key characteristic) on the fixture was significantly (or consistently) out of tolerance
when measured.
A number of case studies and trials were carried out providing useful outputs both in terms
of industrial relevance and academic contribution. The academic contribution has been
captured through the relevant papers from 2010 and 2011 (Martin, O.C et al). Within the
81
industrial context Airbus has a technology readiness level (TRL) based technology
management process and here this technology has been progressed upto a TRL4.
Topic 2:
The research question and sub-question captured within topic 2 is to understand the design
criteria via an integrated measurement system approach. An Airbus industrial requirement
aligned with this from figure 1 is ‗freeform surface measurement calibration and artefact
manufacture‘. The work within this domain was to evaluate the performance of typical
measurement systems and understand their performance related to the design (e.g,
aerodynamic) definition for aero profile structures. Initial studies were carried out through
pre-manufactured artefacts, which were manufactured to evaluate various manufacturing,
material and assembly conformance parameters.
An initial state of the art using ‘Photogrammetry’ and ‘Fringe Projection’ measurement
techniques, for the surface profiles on the pre-manufactured artefacts gave some interesting
results, where the mix of surfaces being measured were interpreted differently, with these
results being influenced by a mix of parameters. Among the key features influencing the
measurement output then these were surface finish of the relevant component and the angle
at which the respective measurements are acquired. The key points which emerged from
this initial study of aero profile surface measurement evaluation, were as follows:


Define the measurement challenge, including:
o Area over which the measurement is required?
o Tolerance for key characteristics of the surface, i.e., form, waviness,
roughness and steps?
Develop an artefact as a test bench for the different measurement technologies, so to
replicate the conditions under which the measurements would be acquired – as well
as incorporating into this artefact the relevant features of significance.
Based on the above a specification was produced so to capture the initial outputs from this
work, whereby a process for developing the design and manufacture of the artefact was to
be conducted. The requirement specification was detailed so to ensure the requirements and
attributes of the artefact were fully captured, thereby leading to a more consolidated design
of artefact – so this being closely affiliated with the true design, aerodynamic and overall
manufacturing scenarios.
With this work ongoing, the overall relevance of this has had good alignment with industrial
need and delivery, in terms of understanding measurement system capability in view of
desired measurement requirements for relevant component design and manufacture.
Furthermore, there has been contribution to knowledge via the early measurement systems
evaluation work being presented as a conference paper at the LVMC 2010 conference [3].
Also, a journal paper is currently under review for the early systems evaluation effort, with
then a further journal paper proposed, so to cover the aerospace or manufacturing artefact
design criteria and specification.
Results & Discussion
The two main topics which emerged through the research questions cover different aspects
of measurement system integration. Topic 1 is more a shopfloor integrated manufacturing
solution, whereas Topic 2 is mainly for purposes of verifying design criteria.
In the context of topic 1, then there is now a model for having an embedded shopfloor
metrology solution integrated into the relevant manufacturing environment through the
‗metrology enhanced tooling‘ project outputs. In essence the main recommendations
emerging from this research effort is for there to be a 3 phase approach i.e., (i) Rapid Fixture
Health Check (ii) Embedded Metrology and (iii) Affordable Full Field Metrology System –
where (i) and (ii) are based on the specific fixture conformance measurement process and
(iii) is where there is an alternative low cost mechanism of conducting the desired
conformance checks. An implementation model for this proposal is show within figure 3:
82
Figure 3 – Metrology Enhanced Tooling for Aerospace (META) Framework Overview
The feasibility and robustness of the proposed META framework (figure 3) is for this to be
progressed through the various TRL gates and thereby being implemented in the context of
conducting the fixture conformance checks via the ‗Analytical Core‘ and the ‗Custom GUI‘ as
per the META framework. (Note: GUI is Graphical User Interface)
For Topic 2, the process for interpreting design conformance directly from measurement
point cloud data, requires a comprehensive mathematical model to be developed. At this
stage the primary assessment of the measurement systems against relevant aero profile
surfaces has been conducted. The follow-on design and manufacture of artefact for
purposes of having a consolidated reference article representative of manufacturing and
design criteria is ongoing. This artefact then provides a reference for evaluating the various
measurement systems. Furthermore, there will be the requirement to develop a
mathematical model for interpreting the relevant mechanical features from the manufactured
component directly extracted from raw point cloud data.
Conclusions
The overall topic of Measurement Systems Integration is fairly broad, with the specific
research questions and associated topics providing a focus for the research direction as well
as the industrial delivery. Topic 1 is answered through the proposed META framework,
whereby the research associated with Topic 2 is ongoing and the work over the next 12
months will be to analyse the measurement point cloud data, with a view of making a direct
comparison with design through the use of the acquired measured raw data.
References:
[1]
Martin, O. C., Muelaner, J. E., Tomlinson, D., Kayani, A. and Maropoulos, P. G. (2010). Metrology
th
th
Enhanced Tooling for Aerospace (META) Framework. 36 MATADOR Conference, Manchester 14-16 July
[2]
Martin, O. C., Wang, Z., Helgosson, P., Muelaner, J. E., Tomlinson, D., Kayani, A. and Maropoulos, P.
G. (2011). Metrology Enhanced Tooling for Aerospace (META) Framework: A live fixturing Wing Box assembly
th
th
case study. 7 International Conference on Digital Enterprise Technology, Athens, 28-30 September
[3]
Kyle, S., Robson, S., McCarthy, M., Burguete, R. and Kayani, A. (2010). Free-form surface
nd
rd
measurement under review at Airbus UK. LVMC 2010 Conference, Chester 2 –3 November
83
Amir Kayani
Amir Kayani is a Lead Manufacturing Engineer working within the
Manufacturing Research & Technology (R&T) discipline of Airbus
Operations Ltd in Filton, Bristol. His main area of responsibility is as a
research theme leader
for the domain of ‗Metrology Assisted
Assembly‘, with this work mainly being related to dimensional metrology
processes and integration.
Amir registered for the EngD in 2007, with an interest to progress academically. Here he has
been looking at the influence of measurement systems integration for large component
design and manufacturing processes.
84
The Application Of System Dynamics For Sustainable Development
M.J. Montgomery(1, 2) ([email protected]) D. Pocock(1)
([email protected]) , Dr S.Heslop (2) ([email protected]), Dr. M. Yearworth(2)
([email protected])
1. Halcrow Group Ltd, 1 The Square, Temple Quay, Bristol, BS1 6DG
2. University of Bristol, The Systems Centre, Merchant Ventures Building, BS1 1UQ
Abstract
The need for sustainable development has been well documented especially within the built
environment. However, the definition of what sustainable development actually means has
not had such universal agreement. This is partly due to its inherent complexity (sustainable
development can require the consideration of a vast number of issues); partly due to
incomplete knowledge of the interactions and interdependencies of issues (uncertainty); and
partly due to people‘s perception of what it means to them in that context (there are multiple
perspectives). At Halcrow, a systems thinking approach has been used to try and define
sustainability in context for our client‘s projects. The process and toolkit generated by this
approach is called HalSTAR. HalSTAR currently applies a type of ‗holistic reductionism‘, in
that it narrows the focus from an extremely wide range of issues to select context specific
issues and then assesses them separately from each other. What HalSTAR does not
currently do is take account of the complexity of the relationships between issues, i.e. how
one issue affects another over time and how these relationships can lead to systemic
behaviour that can, at times, be unpredictable and undesirable. The focus of this research
project is to identify where it is necessary to understand these relationships, how to identify
them and how to produce a process that is effective and efficient that can be used in a
project context. The hypothesis therefore is: the application of system dynamics can help to
increase the sustainable development of the built environment through a systems approach
to assessment.
Background
In recent years there has been an increased awareness of the need to identify the
interconnectedness of the parts of our infrastructure systems (CIRIA, 2010). Events such as
the 2007 floods in the UK and the 2010/11 cold snap highlighted the consequence of not
understanding these relationships; failure in one sub-system led to significant knock-on
consequences in others, a phenomenon known as cascade failures (Pitt, 2008) leading to
costs to society of £1.5bn and £3bn respectively. It is widely recognised that a systems
approach can help to identify interconnectivity and interdependency (ICE, 2009). Many
engineered systems include nested and interacting social and environmental components,
and these socio-environmental or socio-technical systems can be regarded as ‗complex
adaptive systems‘. Beyond the emergent, unpredictable behaviour of complex systems, key
characteristics are exhibited through patterns of self-organisation in response to external
influences (Holland, 1998; Bossel, 2002), evolving through cyclical processes (Holling, 1986)
with a constant renewal of components (Costanza and Patten, 1995; Voinov and Farley,
2007). The sustainability of such systems involves the capacity to adapt in order to maintain
function over time (Costanza, 1992; Meadows et al., 1992). This adaptive capability implies
resilience and in fact the terms ‗sustainability‘, ‗adaptive capacity‘ and ‗resilience‘ are tightly
connected (Folke et al., 2002). Sustainability emphasises the system‘s continuity over long
timescales, whereas adaptive capability and resilience are internal properties of the system,
which can potentially be modified to increase sustainability.
The sustainability assessment literature states that it is necessary to consider the whole
system and its emergent properties as well as its parts (Hardi and Zdan, 1997; Fenner and
Ryce, 2008), to address relationships and interdependencies between issues (Gasparatos et
al., 2008; Thabrew et al., 2009) and be capable of dealing with the complexity inherent in
sustainable development decisions (Brandon and Lombardi, 2005, Elghali et al., 2008). More
85
holistic, systems-based approaches to assessment are required (Bell and Morse, 2007,
Panagiotakopoulos and Jowitt, 2008b), involving integrated analysis through flexible models
rather than a single theory or tool (Venning and Higgins, 2001, Gasparatos et al., 2009).
Emanating from the doctoral thesis of the author of HalSTAR, Pearce (2012) outlined the
requirements of future versions. These included:




means of addressing relationships between issues and predicting the
emergent properties of their interactions, including secondary and cumulative effects;
support for addressing a wider range of life cycle phases and temporal
scales;
enabling the identification and effective management of inherent
uncertainties;
clarifying the implications of proposed actions to enable the development of
optimal and informed solutions;
HalSTAR Systems Methodology
The methodology used to identify the causal relationships between sustainability issues
draws on ideas of grounded theory (Strauss & Corbin, 2008), which posits that theory should
arise from the available evidence, being demonstrably ‗grounded‘ within empirical data.
Initial data collection involves the analysis of a wide variety of documents and reports
published from different sources, including peer-reviewed academic articles, consultant
reports, institute publications, professional codes and standards, and government and NGO
documents. The document analysis consists of referencing text (phrases, sentences and
longer sections) that indicates causality between issues. These references are stored in the
HalSTAR Systems Database, so that they can be recalled in a project to create diagrams
that describe the effect of one issue on another. The diagrams can be simple, identifying
only a single causal link, or they can build multiple causal links into causal loop diagrams.
The four stages of the process are iterative resulting in continued learning in and between
projects. The 4 stage approach consists of:
1. Identification of Issues and causal links: The HalSTAR Systems Database is a store of
previously identified causal links between issues. Output from the database identifies the
subsequent issues that affect or are affected by the project relevant issues. This gives an
initial indication of the cumulative and multiple effects that the project might have on various
issues.
2. Construction: The known causal links are then manually linked into chains of causality
between relevant issues. This allows secondary effects, or knock-on consequences, to be
considered. Where relevant, chains can be linked to produce causal loops. The main
purpose of this stage is to identify any systemic behaviour that might produce unintended
consequences through balancing or reinforcing feedback loops.
3. Verification: The document analysis that provides the evidence base can sometimes
highlight the ambiguity that exists in the proposed causality between issues. This is
especially prevalent in issues of high complexity and issues concerning values. In both these
contexts the literature may not provide a resolution to the conflicts. However, since many
proposed projects will be operating in environments of high complexity and subjectivity,
identifying and utilising methods to manage these issues is vitally important. In HalSTAR
Systems, this involves building preliminary causal loop diagrams (CLDs) that are used in
group model-building exercises involving the project team and stakeholders. Each causal
link is discussed and changed if necessary, and consensus on the outcomes is sought. If
agreement is reached on the direction of causality between issues, it implies
acknowledgement of the existence of the causal loops that these links help to build. The next
step is to identify the strength and uncertainty of the causal links between issues. In most
complex contexts it is neither desirable nor possible to characterise these precisely, but
rather ensure that there is consensus among the project team and stakeholders. As
86
consensus is obtained, the potential systemic behaviour of the causal interactions can be
discussed. This allows the production of a prioritised list of systemically important issues.
The database then provides a set of relevant criteria and indicators by which to assess and
monitor the project.
4. Validation: Achieving consensus about the causal relationships between issues in the
verification stage does not necessarily mean that these causalities are observed in the
project itself. It is therefore the project and its issues are monitored post implementation of
any actions, to record the observed effects of the interactions between issues. This
information is recorded in the HalSTAR software, building the evidence base for future
projects and allowing inter-project learning.
Through the above methodology, HalSTAR Systems, aims to:





Minimise stakeholder conflict through increased knowledge sharing;
Provide a holistic rationale for the prioritisation of relevant issues which seeks to;
Rationalise and optimise the data requirements for the assessment and monitoring
stages of HalSTAR;
Manage indirect and cumulative impacts over temporal and spatial scales;
Strengthen positive feedback loops whilst eliminating, mitigating or reducing the
impact of negative feedback loops.
References
Bell, S. J. & Morse, S. (2007) Sustainability indicators : measuring the immeasurable?, London, Earthscan.
Bossel, H. (2002) Assessing viability and sustainability: a systems-based approach for deriving comprehensive
indicator sets. Conservation Ecology 2, 5, -.
Brandon, P. S. & Lombardi, P. L. (2005) Evaluating sustainable development in the built environment, Oxford,
Blackwell Science.
CIRIA. Flood resilience and resistance for critical infrastructure. (2010) CIRIA, Classic house, 174-180 Old Street,
London, 2010, CIRIA C688.
Costanza, R. (1992) Toward an operational definition of ecosystem health. In Costanza, R., Norton, B. G. &
Haskell, B. D. (Eds.) Ecosystem health : new goals for environmental management. Washington, D.C., Island
Press.
Elghali, L., Clift, R., Begg, K. G. & McLaren, S. (2008) Decision support methodology for complex contexts.
Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers: Engineering Sustainability 1, 161, 7–22.
Folke, C., Hahn, T., Olsson, P. & Norberg, J. (2005) Adaptive governance of Social-Ecological systems. Annual
Review of Environment and Resources 1, 30, 441-473.
Gasparatos, A., El-Haram, M. & Horner, M. (2009) The argument against a reductionist approach for measuring
sustainable development performance and the need for methodological pluralism. Accounting Forum 3, 33, 245256.
Hardi, P. & Zdan, T. J. (1997) Assessing sustainable development : principles in practice, Winnipeg, Man.,
International Institute for Sustainable Development.
Holland, J. H. (1998) Emergence: from chaos to order, Oxford, Oxford University Press.
Holling, C. S. (1986) The resilience of terrestrial ecosystems: local surprise and global change. In William, C. C.,
Munn, R.E. (Ed.) Sustainable Development of the Biosphere. New York, Cambridge University Press for the
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
Institute of Civil Engineers. The state of the nation: Defending critical infrastructure. ICE, London, 2009.
Meadows, D. H., Meadows, D. L. & Randers, J. (1992) Beyond the limits : global collapse or a sustainable future,
London, Earthscan.
Panagiotakopoulos, P. D. & Jowitt, P. W. (2008b) Sustainability assessment and reporting in property
development: a case study. Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers: Engineering Sustainability ES1, 161,
93–99.
Pearce, O.J.D., Murry, N.J.A., Broyd, T.W. (2012) HalSTAR: systems engineering for sustainable development,
Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers: Engineering Sustainability (accepted awaiting publication)
Pitt, M. Learning lessons from the 2007 floods: An independent review by Sir Michael Pitt. A review
commissioned by the UK Secretaries of State, 2008.
87
Thabrew, L., Wiek, A. & Ries, R. (2009) Environmental decision making in multi-stakeholder contexts:
applicability of life cycle thinking in development planning and implementation. Journal of Cleaner Production 1,
17, 67-76.
Venning, J. & Higgins, J. (2001) Towards sustainability - Emerging systems for informing sustainable
development, Sydney, University of New South Wales Press.
Matthew Montgomery MA BSc (Hons)
EngD Research Engineer in Sustainable Systems
Halcrow & the University of Bristol
Academic Background



BSc (Hons) in Botany, University of Liverpool 2000-03
MA in Environmental Impact Assessment and Management,
University of Manchester (PT) 2006-08
EngD in Systems at the University of Bristol 2008-Present
Profile
Matt started his career by studying Botany at the University of Liverpool. This installed a
strong respect and admiration for the natural environment. Spending three years managing
an environmental consultancy company in Manchester showed the intricate connections of
man to the environment and how society is born from this connection.
Matt joined Halcrow in 2008 on a joint research programme with the University of Bristol
funded by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC). The research
focuses on system thinking approaches to understand the interconnections between the
environment, man and society in order to design and assess our infrastructure systems
which are not only sustainable, but regenerative.
The application of systems theory and principles such as those found in complex adaptive
systems theory, allows lessons learnt in other connected fields, such as biomimicry and
permaculture, to be brought and applied in, the built environment.
Matt is Student Rep and an Industry Representative on the Policy Council of the UK Chapter
of the System Dynamics Society and Committee Member of the Friends of Brandon Hill; a
Bristol based voluntary organisation which aims to improve the natural environment of
Brandon Hill and the lives and of those connected to it.
EngD research topic:
The application of system dynamics for sustainable development
Supervisors: Dr Sally Heslop (University of Bristol); David Pocock (Halcrow Group Ltd) Dr
Mike Yearworth (University of Bristol)
Publications: ICE Special Edition on Infrastructure Resilience: An innovative systems
approach for infrastructure resilience
Email: [email protected], [email protected]
88
Modelling the Control and Hydraulics of a Linear Friction Welding Machine at
Rolls-Royce
D.T. Williams 1
A R Plummer
P. Wilson
Rolls-Royce/IDC in Systems at the University of Bath, Bath, BA2 7AY, UK
Centre for Power Transmission and Motion Control, University of Bath
Rolls-Royce PLC. CRF, 5 Littleoak Drive, Sherwood Enterprise Park,
Nottinghamshire, NG15 0GP
Introduction to the Research
Businesses are under a continual threat to remain competitive in their market place and also
comply with the ever changing legislation and government requirements. At Rolls Royce this
has directly impacted the aircraft engine manufacture. This EngD focuses on one particular
process, on one particular component in the aircraft engine manufacture. Linear Friction
Welding (LFW) is introduced as a relatively new process adopted by aircraft engine
manufacturers operationalising new technologies to produce better value components. With
increasing fuel prices and economical drives for reducing CO2 emissions, LFW has been a
key technology in recent years for aircraft engine manufacture in both commercial and
military market sectors. For joining Blades to Discs (‗Blisks‘), LFW is the ideal process as it is
a solid state process which gives reproducibility and high quality bonds therefore improving
performance. The welding process is also more cost effective than machining Blisks from
solid billets, and a reduction in weight can also be achieved with the use of hollow blades.
The LFW process also allows dissimilar materials to be joined and a reduction in assembly
time.
There are opportunities to improve the welding process especially the monitoring of the
machinery, reducing the possibilities for scrapping expensive components. At the heart of
the LFW process is a complex hydraulic system controlling closely monitored variables
influencing the weld quality and repeatability. The main aim of the research is therefore to
create a simulation model of a LFW process in Simulink and also apply systems thinking to
fully understand the LFW process. Developing a holistic model, this will involve the
mechanics of the system and understanding relationships between the machine axes which
interact during the welding process. Operators who use the machine also have a big role in
this project. An understanding of the variation they introduce would also be important to
capture the true machine interactions, and also the models interactions with the operators
need to be well understood.
The benefits of the new model include the ability to execute it in a real- time environment
with machine operation, allowing weld anomalies to be detected as (and in some cases
before) they occur, as well as the monitoring of the machine‘s condition. Therefore the
business benefits would be realised through a reduction in machine downtime enabling the
timely supply of goods providing customer value. Further benefits include the ability to
investigate new hardware upgrades to the machine offline and the modelling process will
also provide greater understanding of the complex operation of the whole system and the
welding process.
This short paper initially presents an outline of the research methodology used, then briefly
describes the hard systems research (creation and simulation of the analytical model) and
soft systems research (understanding of the human influences). Finally a conclusion and
overview of further work is presented.
Research Methodology
Developing a robust research framework, the combination of qualitative and quantitative
research gives a triangulated approach (Jick 1979) and has been used by other researchers
based in industry (see (Gibbons 2011) for example). Quantitative research refers to research
of social phenomena via mathematical, statistical, or computational techniques (Given
2008). In contrast, qualitative research refers to achieving an in-depth understanding of
human behaviour and the reasons that govern such behaviour (Norman K. & Lincoln 2005).
89
The mixed research methods will be used to create a robust, holistic research approach, as depicted
in figure 1: Research Methodology Diagram.
Figure 1 – Research Methodology Diagram
Quantitative research will see an analytical model developed to simulate the LF60.
Qualitative research will be in the form of action research and ethnography, submerging the
author into the business to monitor the human interactions of the process; giving a holistic
understanding of the system.
With a mixed research methodology now understood, the next section briefly describes the
analytical modelling for the system under review.
Hard Systems Research (Modelling and Validation)
The LF60 is a linear friction welding system that is designed to weld Blisks in a production
environment. The system uses a combination of high performance, high accuracy servohydraulics to produce oscillatory motion between the components which creates frictional
heating, and a forging force sufficient to produce a high strength and geometrically precise
bond. Each machine axis is independently controlled using a combination of Proportional,
Integral, Derivative (PID), or Amplitude, Phase (APC) controlling methods. The six axes are
referred to as Inplane, Forge, Hade, Roll, Pitch and Yaw.
The Inplane actuator which is an arrangement of four valve stages, each one increasing its
flow capacity controlled by PID and APC methods enabling tangential movement. Forging
pressure is obtained by the forge actuators, a combination of four independently PID
controlled hydrostatic actuators. The six individually PID controlled hade actuators restrain
the unwanted movement i.e. drift, inertial moments, and induced forces (MTS 2000).
The created SIMULINK model of the LF60 can be seen in figure 2.
Inplane_Drive
ip cmd
Real INPLANE DRIVE SIGNAL
IP_WELD_FORCE
[IP_drive_signal]
[postoload_switch]
Out2
[IP_force]
Inplane weld force
Find Load command switch
compare drive signals
x_feedback
inplane_command
0.001
Matching
Gain1
Position Input
[IP_drive_signal]
[IP_cmd]
Command Out
[IP_pos]
Inplane feedback2
Position f eedback
[IP_pos]
f b_pos
[IP_force]
Load f bk
0
[postoload_switch]
Out PID
Valv e cmd
Load command
-T-
0.001
To Workspace4
[IP_cmd]
position to load switch
INPLANE APC AND PIC CONTROLLER1
IP_fb_cmd
[IP_force]
f b_f orce
GAIN OUT
Constant3
[forge_DOF_FB]
Matching
Gain4
Forge Load f b
[RES_force]
f b_f orce1
[IP_pos]
Inplane servovalve_actuator
[IP_gain]
Inplane feedback1
[IP_pos]
[HA2_pos]
1000
Matching
Gain5
ip pos
position
ip Valv e Driv e
f orce
1000
Filtered Forge f b
position
Manual Switch
HA2
Manual Switch1
Control signal
fb
Matching
Gain3
1000
hadea1_force
Saturation1
[HC1_force]
f orce
HB2
FORCE PID
Controller
[IP_force]
0.1
hadeb2_force
[HB2_force]
hadeb1
ip f orce
-K-
Out1
in1
Gain4SAMPLE AND HOLD4
HC1 Valv e Driv e
tie_rod_force
hadec2_force
hadec1_force
[HC2_force]
[HC1_force]
y a1 f orce
HA1
cage_weight_z
position
Out1
in1
hadec2
hadec1
f orce
y b1 f orce
[HC1_force]
y c1 f orce
[HA2_pos]
v alv e
SAMPLE AND HOLD2
HA2 Valv e Driv e
[HA2_force]
Out1
in1
hade C1
[HC2_pos]
[HC1_pos]
position
HA1 Valve/actuator/load model3
HB1
[HB2_pos]
v alv e
SAMPLE AND HOLD5
HB2 Valv e Driv e
f orce
[HB2_force]
HA1 Valve/actuator/load model5
[HA2_force]
y a2 f orce
[HB2_force]
y b2 f orce
[HC2_force]
y c2 f orce
HC1
Out1
Hade stroke DOF
za f orce
zb f orce
[C_force]
zc f orce
-K-
Hade C2 System
position
FORCE PID
Controller1
FA Valv e Driv e
Feedback
[A_force]
Forge B System
Subsystem1
-TFB Valv e Driv e
Gain14
-K-
POSITION PID
Controller1
Gain5
HA1 Valve/actuator/load model4
Out1
[B_pos]
Out2
[B_force]
In1
Forge C System
Subsystem4
Switch1
Out1
FC Valv e Driv e
[C_pos]
forgea
Forge D System
In1
Out2
[D_force]
zdf orce
FD Valv e Driv e
Out1
zdf orce1
[D_pos]
LOAD convert DOF to drive signal
[D_force]
FASTROKEOUT
Gain2
0.001
[B_pos]
Gain3
0.001
FBSTROKEOUT
[C_pos]
Gain8
0.001
FCSTROKEOUT
[D_pos]
Gain10
forgec
In1
Out2
[RES_force]
0.001
[A_pos]
forgeb
[C_force]
Subsystem6
hadestrokefb
[HC2_force]
In1
Out2
Control signal
[HC2_pos]
v alv e
[A_pos]
f orce
Command
Hade control DOF
[B_force]
Hade Drive signals B
Forge A System
Control signal
Feedback
[A_force]
Out1
in1
SAMPLE AND HOLD7
HC2 Valv e Driv e
Command
0
Constant7
forged
Subsystem7
Convert to DOF load
forge_load_FB
To Workspace
To Workspace1
To Workspace2
[forge_DOF_FB]
FDSTROKEOUT
Saturation
Forge A-B Stroke signals To Workspace3
Forge Force feedback - friction signals1
Out1
in1
SAMPLE AND HOLD9
hade B2
[HB2_pos]
Hade A2 System
Gain6
[HB1_force]
hadeb2
hade B1
[HB1_pos]
Hade Drive signals A
hade A2
[HA2_pos]
[HB1_force]
[forge_DOF_FB]
HC1
hadea2
hade a1
hadeb1_force
SAMPLE AND HOLD3
Gain7
[HA1_force]
[HA2_force]
hadea1
[HA1_pos]
Out1
in1
HB1 Valv e Driv e
hadea2_force
[HA1_force]
IP_WELD_FORCE
v alv e
HA1 Valve/actuator/load model2
Forge control DOF
Feedback
fc
[HC1_pos]
position
HA1 Valve/actuator/load model6
Out1
in1
HA1 Valv e Driv e
Command
Forge DOF
[C_pos]
[HB1_force]
SAMPLE AND HOLD6
za
Subsystem3
1000
[HB1_pos]
v alv e
f orce
Terminator1
Gain12
[B_pos]
[HA1_force]
HA1 Valve/actuator/load model1
Valv e Driv e
y c2 pos
Forge f orce additions
[A_pos]
[HA1_pos]
v alv e
Terminator
y a2 pos
Forge command
[HC2_pos]
forgea_force
Forge Drive5
FA
[A_force]
forgeb_force
-10
[A_pos]
forge_stroke_fbk
[B_force]
Matching
Gain2
Inplane weld force1
0.001
[B_pos]
forgec_force
Gain1
0.25
[C_force]
[C_pos]
Gain9
forged_force
Constant4
Add8
Forge A-B Force signals
-Tforge_load_FB
-T-Tin1
Out1
-T-
wait till settled2
tie_rod_force
cage_weight_z
Forge Force feedback - friction signals
Forge Stroke feedback
1.25e-5
[D_pos]
[D_force]
Add6
hade C2
90
Figure 2 – Top level SIMULINK model of the LF60
The models accuracy is quantified using the Normalised Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE)
between the actual and modelled output signals full validation analysis can be found in
(Williams D T 2009). A low percentage value indicates high accuracy of the model when
comparing signals with the actual system. One of the systems main signals is the in-plane
position. Figure 3 (left) shows the NRMSE values for this signal across 17 data sets. The
model performs fairly well, with an average NRMSE of 7%. An example section of the time
series data for this signal for the worst result can be seen in figure 3 (right).
Time (sec)
-3
Inplane Stroke Feedback (mm)
x 10
2
Actual Feedback Signal
Modelled Feedback
Stroke (mm)
1.5
1
Position (mm)
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
Time (s)
0.5
0.6
0.7
Figure 3 - Normalised RMSE for the Modelled Vs. Actual in-plane position (left). Example of the time
series results for the worse data set (right).
Soft Systems Research (Understanding Human Interactions)
Human interactions are an important factor within this research. To understand where
possible human involvement could come from the Suppliers, Inputs, Process Outputs,
Customers (SIPOC) tool has been utilised. The SIPOC tool can be used as a high level
process map, aiding to understand the purpose and the scope of a process (Tennant 2001).
The SIPOC diagram relating to the LFW process can be seen in figure 4.
S
I
P
O
C
Suppliers
Inputs
Process
Outputs
Customers
Rolls-Royce External
Supplier
Blades
Welded 'Blisk'
Internal Customer: RollsRoyce Finishing Process
Rolls-Royce External
Supplier
Discs
Rolls-Royce
Machine Operators
Process Knowledge &
Experience
Rolls-Royce Operational
Leadership Team
Rolls-Royce
Maintenance Technicians
Plant History and
Knowledge
Rolls-Royce Operational
Leadership Team
Rolls-Royce
Manufacturing/Mechanical
Engineers (MEs)
Process Performance
Knowledge especially Weld
Quality
Rolls-Royce Operational
Leadership Team
Step 1:
Step 2:
Step 3:
Step 4:
Step 5:
Step 6:
LOAD DISK
LOAD BLADE
WELD BLADE TO
DISC
VISUAL INSPECTION
REPEAT PROCESS
STEPS 2 to 4
UNLOAD BLISK
Machine Operator loads
disk into the machine
fixture
Machine Operator loads
blade into machine fixture
The Disk and Blade
components are moved
together by the machine
and welded using the LFW
process
Machine Operator
completes visual
inspection of weld and
prepares WIP Blisk for
next Weld
Machine Operator repeats
steps 2 to 4 until a
complete Blisk has been
welded
Machine Operator unloads
completed Blisk and moves
to the next process
(Wash)
Figure 4 - Normalised RMSE for the Modelled Vs. Actual in-plane position.
91
The SIPOC tool has highlighted where possible human influences could be affecting the
process, as highlighted in red on figure 4.
Conclusion
This research paper has introduced the research, outlining the effective use of a mixed
research paradigm. The hard system has been described showing modelling and validation
examples, and an overview of the softer systems aspects has been reviewed. This holistic
research method used for the EngD aims to provide an innovative fault prediction tool,
deployed within the Rolls-Royce company, enabling the business to save time and money in
their LFW manufacturing process.
References
Gibbons, P. M. (2011). "The Development of a Value Improvement Model for Repetitive Processes." Doctoral
Thesis. Factulty of Engineering, The University of Bristol.
Given, L. M. (2008). "The Sage encyclopedia of qualitative research methods." Los Angeles, Calif.: Sage
Publications.( ISBN 1412941636).
Jick, T. D. (1979). "Mixing Qualitative and Quantitative Methods: Triangulation in Action." Administrative Science
Quarterly 24(4): pp. 602-612.
MTS (2000). LF60 Operation Manual.
Norman K. & Lincoln, Y. S. (2005). "The Sage Handbook of Qualitative Research (3rd ed.)." Thousand Oaks, CA:
Sage(ISBN 0-7619-2757-3).
Tennant, G. (2001). "SIX SIGMA: SPC and TQM in Manufacturing and Services." Gower Publishing, Ltd.. p. 6
ISBN 0-566-08374-4.
Williams D T (2009). Validation Report. Rolls-Royce and Bath University.
Biography
MEng (Hons), Electronics & Automatic Control
Engineering, University of Sheffield. Result 1st.
and
Systems
Darren joined Rolls-Royce in 2008 after completing a degree in
Electronics, Automatic Control and Systems Engineering at the
University of Sheffield. The aim of his Engineering Doctorate in Systems is to develop a
simulation model to aid understanding and fault diagnosis for a complex Linear Friction
Welding Machine at Rolls-Royce. The LFW welds Blades onto Discs (Blisks) which are
integral parts of airplane engines.
Supervisors: Prof Andrew Plummer, University of Bath; Peter Wilson, Rolls-Royce; Dr.
Patrick Keogh, University of Bath
Memberships: IET & INCOSE student memberships


Prizes:
2nd prize at The University of Bristol EngD Workshop poster competition (2009).Poster title:
Modelling the control and Hydraulics of a Linear Friction Welder
Nicholson Prize for Undergraduate Studies at The University of Sheffield (2007).
Email: [email protected]
Delegates of the First Annual Research Conference at the Industrial Doctorate
Centre in Systems, 17th May 2010
92
Delegates of the Second Annual Research Conference at the Industrial
Doctorate Centre in Systems, 24 - 25th May 2011
93
Learning together
Industrial Doctorate Centre in Systems
www.bristol.ac.uk/eng-systems-centre/idc
University of Bristol
University of Bath
Engineering Faculty
School of Management
Merchant Venturers Building
Bath
Woodland Road
BA2 7AY
Bristol BS8 1UB