Inuit and Scientific Philosophies about Planning, Prediction, and Uncertainty Peter Bates Abstract This paper explores Inuit philosophies ahout the future, long-term planning, and prediction and investigates the ways that these contrast with Western ideas. By descrihing how Inuit deal with the inherent uncertainty of the Arctic environment, and how this leads to distinct attitudes towards managing the future and its potential risks, the argument is made that these philosophies are a highly effective method of knowing the Arctic environment. However, the strengths of this approach may at times be ohscured by a current desire to show that Inuit predict and plan in the same way as do Western scientists. In fact, such attempts can delegitimize Inuit ways of knowing the future, by effectively setting Western science as a benchmark by which Inuit knowledge is judged, thus reducing the likelihood of effective collaboration between Inuit and Western researchers in environmental management. Introduction Efforts to increase recognition and respect for Inuit ways of knowing have sometimes resulted in claims that Inuit predict and plan in a similar way to that deemed appropriate by Western science (e.g., Bielawski 1992; Ferguson et al. 1998; Freeman 1992:9; Northern Perspectives 1992:15-16 quoted in Vitebsky 1995:199). These claims are also made under the guise of sustainable harvesting practices, in which Inuit are argued to be actively mindful of their future needs in the ways that they harvest and gain knowledge of animals in the present (Freeman 1985:274-277; Nuttall 1998:71, 88-89; Riewe and Gamble 1988). Inuit are also increasingly represented as fearful of the future impacts of phenomena such as climate change (Armstrong 2001; Clover 2005; Ehrlich 2006). All this suggests that Inuit knowledge and ideas may be directly applicable to scientifically founded environmental management regimes based on prediction, to the benefit of both Inuit and scientists (e.g., Stevenson 1996:283). In contrast to this view, early anthropologists have written about the inabihty of Inuit to contemplate the future. Inuit were reckoned not to place themselves within a chain of events, or perceive a chronology to their Uves, or perceive causal links between the past, present, and future (Carpenter 1956:39). This charge has indeed been leveled at all hunter-gatherer groups across the world. Western scholars have suggested that pre-contact hunter-gatherer societies did not conceive time to be linear, and that the past and future were seen to circle around the present rather than define it (Adam [1994] 2002:504; Brody 2000:139; Ingold 2000:336). In this paper I aim to explore these contrasting views of Inuit planning and prediction, focusing in turn on Inuit and Western scientific approaches to negotiating the future in the Arctic. In so doing I will outline a distinct Inuit philosophy towards the future. This may not be based around prediction Peter Bates, Anthropology Department, University of Aberdeen, Edward Wright Building Aberdeen, Scotland AB24 3QY ARCTIC ANTHROPOLOGY, Vol. 44, No. 2, pp. 87-100, 2007 ISSN 0066-6939 © 2007 by the Board of Regents of the University of Wisconsin System 88 Arctic Anthropology 44:2 and planning, but is nonetheless founded on a particularly astute awareness of the future and its relationship to the present. I will also demonstrate the strengths of this approach in comparison to Western scientific preoccupations with environmental management based on prediction and planning. My argument is based on observations made during 15 months of ethnographic fieldwork with ecological scientists and Inuit elders and hunters in and around Cambridge Bay, an Inuit community of around 1,300 individuals on the south coast of Victoria Island in Nunavut, Canada. Most Inuit in Cambridge Bay are eastern Copper Inuit, the original inhabitants of the surrounding area. Sub-groups from the south coast of Victoria Island, adjacent mainland coast and Bathurst Inlet came together to form the community, predominantly during the 1960s (Collignon 1993:71-75; Damas 2002:40-49, 72-73, 112-122,160-163; Freeman 1976:46-48). The glaciated landscape beyond the town consists of flat open tundra, broken occasionally by low ridges and eskers. A multitude of lakes, ponds, streams, rivers, and swamps punctuate the tundra in summer. The mainland south of the island is higher, and rocky hills and cliffs surround Bathurst Inlet. The ocean around Cambridge Bay consists of narrow straits that separate Victoria Island from the Canadian mainland. These waters have little tidal range and are bordered by exposed rocky coast, sheltered bays, stretches of sandy beach, and small islands. The straits are frozen for much of the year, allowing access by skidoo to the mainland, and during this period there is no open water within range of the community. Animal species hunted by Inuit from Cambridge Bay include muskox, caribou, Arctic fox, Arctic char, ringed and bearded seal, ptarmigan, snow goose, Canada goose, and swan. All of these species are commonly found around the community, although there is seasonal variation in their numbers and accessibility. Caribou perhaps receive the most attention from Inuit hunters, particularly the Dolphin-Union herd, which migrates between the interior of Victoria Island and the Canadian mainland, passing by Cambridge Bay twice a year. Wolf, wolverine, and grizzly bear can also be found on Victoria Island, although their numbers are far greater on the mainland across the straits. Polar bears are rare visitors and large sea mammals such as whales and walrus, which are abundant in other regions of the Arctic, are absent from the waters around Cambridge Bay. Western Perception of Time and Inuit Western representations of hunter-gatherer societies have always been more influenced by the preoccupations of researchers than the realities of hunter-gatherer life (Bhabha 1993 in Childs and Williams 1997:127-129; Bravo 2000:470; Bravo and Sörlin 2002:18; Pálsson 2002:277; Stuart 2002:85-86; Wachowich 1998:86). It is also commonly argued that research aiming to engage with the knowledge of indigenous people tends to accumulate decontextualized, scientific facts rather than engaging with the philosophies that underpin indigenous ways of knowing (Agrawal 1995; Bates 2006; Cruikshank 1998:45-70; Kothari 2001:149; Morrow and Hensel 1992; Mosse 2001:32; Nadasdy 2003:60-61, 94-98; Wenzel 2004:239). Accordingly, Adam ([1994] 2002) warns that most studies of hunter-gatherers are fraught with Western assumptions about time, which influence the ways hunter-gatherer philosophies are perceived and described by Western scholars (Adam 1994:506). These Western assumptions, and the impacts they may have on representations of hunter-gatherers, are therefore important to explore. Assumptions about time as a linear flow of constant rate, with neat chronologies linking events in the past, present, and future are convictions that are deeply embedded in Western thought (Adam [1994] 2002:506). This perception of linear causality has recently been further reinforced by modern technologies. The hazards that these technologies generate, such as nuclear waste, biodiversity loss, or global warming, operate on timescales previously unimaginable, having potential repercussions over hundreds or thousands of years. This has created a preoccupation with a long-term, open future; a future that is full of potential hazards that must be understood and mitigated to ensure our survival. Industrial society's greatest tool in this endeavor is the longterm planning apparently afforded by the predictive powers of Western science (Adam 1998:57; Beck [1986] 1992; Harries-Jones 2004:295; Ingold 1993:39). Similarly, the storage of provisions such as food or money for periods of possible future scarcity has come to be seen as an indication of a rational mind. There are also assumptions about how time should be used in industrial society. Regulating time by "the clock" and engaging in regular "work" and "free" time increasingly came to be seen as both practically and morally correct during the industrial revolution (Thompson 1967: 56-96). Against these assumptions, the apparent lack of urgency in their activities and the unwillingness to prepare for the future displayed by many huntergatherer groups have been judged by observers as indolence or a lack of foresight (Ingold 2000:336; Sahlins 1972:30-32; Stern 2003:148). Similarly, recognition by Western observers that Inuit do not appear to concern themselves with long-term planning and prediction may become an assumption that Inuit are incapable of conceptualizing the fu- Bates: Inuit and Scientific Philosophies ture and its inherent dangers. Meanwhile, for those researchers who aim to increase recognition and respect for Inuit ways of knowing, Western assumptions about the future, its risks, and how these should he managed may lead to assertions that Inuit do plan and predict in the same ways as Western scientists (e.g., Bielawski 1992; Ferguson et al. 1998; Freeman 1992:9; Northern Perspectives 1992:15-16 quoted in Vitehsky 1995:199). This may however again speak more of Western assumptions than the preoccupations of the Inuit themselves. To suggest that Inuit frequently engage in longterm planning and prediction may therefore he to set Western knowledge claims as the henchmark hy which other knowledge forms should he judged, rather then engaging fully with Inuit philosophies. Do Inuit Plan and Predict? On the one hand, therefore, it is claimed that Inuit have no concept of the future and its links to the present. This claim can he dismissed immediately. It seems highly unlikely that Inuit in the precontact era could not conceptualize the future, for the future is knowahle on a hroad scale in the Arctic environment. The tundra and seas change drastically from one season to the next, from snow and ice to rock and water. Animal populations also fluctuate from ahundaiice to almost complete ahsence on a roughly regular cycle. Negotiating these changes would always have required an astute awareness of what was coming next, coupled with appropriate preparation for these events, for example the sewing of new winter clothes prior to a move onto the sea-ice (Damas 2002:13-14) or storage of ample food in readiness for times of scarcity that might he of unknown duration (Fosset 2001:97). Moreover, the predictable nature of fixed astronomical occurrences, such as the winter solstice or the return of the sun in spring, allowed some Inuit groups to develop complex calendars which allowed the accurate forecasting of these events (Stern 2003:150). It is therefore improbable that pre-contact Inuit did not perceive any link between the past, present, and future, and a certain amount of general preparation would have been essential to negotiating Arctic seasonal variations (Tyrrell 2005:55-60). Having established that Inuit can conceptualize the future in this way, it might be assumed that they do therefore readily engage in prediction and planning. However in my experience Inuit generally prefer not to predict and plan in a way that conforms to Western assumptions about the future. I will now explore the reasons that Inuit may have for not wanting to predict and plan, demonstrating that preferring not to engage in these activities is based on a particularly astute awareness of the future. 89 The Arctic environment is extremely changeable and one of the first things one learns is that nothing can be taken for granted. While animals, the weather, and snow and ice cover follow yearly cycles, variations in these patterns will always occur. Ice cover or open water can remain for months longer in one year than in the next. This makes crossing the straits that separate Cambridge Bay from the Canadian mainland hazardous, as' drifting ice can disrupt and damage boats even in midsummer, while on years of late freeze-up patches of open water or thin ice can swallow skidoos well into December. Also, animals such as carihou and Arctic char, which are arguably the two species most often hunted by Inuit from Cambridge Bay, move with a striking alacrity during their migrations. An Inuit hunter may know roughly what to expect from these animals for a given time of year, for example that the caribou should he nearing the community on their trek north, but the exact timings and routes chosen by the caribou across such a vast expanse of land and ice can never be fully predicted. Caribou migrations can also fail entirely with little warning (Burch 1994:166; Fosset 2001:154). Meanwhile, wolves, bears, and wolverines are highly dispersed in the area around Cambridge Bay and their locations are almost completely unpredictable. Furthermore, the weather in particular can never he relied upon at any time of year. It can change completely in a matter of hours, catching the unwary and unprepared in thick fog, torrential rain, gathering waves, blowing snow, or plummeting temperatures. In the days when Inuit were entirely reliant on the hunt for food, to presume that something was going to happen could therefore prove fatal (Briggs 1968:53 in Omura 2002:106; Briggs 1991:262). It might seem that present-day Inuit are affected to a lesser extent by these potential hazards. The Inuit are no longer wholly reliant on successfully acquiring game, greatly reducing the risk of starvation and the need to hunt and travel in poor conditions. Modern technologies such as skidoos, GPS, and radios might also seem to have made the Arctic safer. However, the Arctic remains unpredictable and dangerous (Briggs 1991:260). Hunting and traveling remain fundamental aspects of Inuit culture (Hicks and White 2000:38) and are still subject to the vagaries of the environment, which occasionally prove fatal to those who make mistakes. Reliance on modern technologies can also introduce new^, unpredictable dangers, such as mechanical failure (Aporta and Higgs 2005:735-736). For Inuit, it is acceptance of this continuing uncertainty and danger that marks the truly experienced, a point also noted about the Sami by Ingold and Kurttila (2000:189). Accepting that the future cannot he known allows appropriate preparation for uncertainty, rather than condemning 90 a traveler to futile struggle against it. Inuit therefore focus on "keeping the show on the road," that is, opening up a path to the future in the present, rather than becoming overly fixated on the future before it has arrived. They respond to each situation as and when it presents itself, and reaction to an opportunity or obstacle is often spontaneous. Having adequate knowledge of the present therefore becomes far more important than predicting what might happen next. A hunter relies on acquiring a wealth of information on current conditions and opportunities. This is done in part by maintaining frequent personal contact with the land, and Inuit will continually note current snow and ice conditions and animal locations as they travel. This personal experience is complemented by constant communication with other hunters. On first arriving in Camhridge Bay I was struck by the frequency with which animal movements or environmental conditions came up in conversation among the Inuit. Hunters would relate the numbers of animals that they had seen whilst out on the land and their location, each and every time they crossed paths with another hunter, and anything out of the ordinary also received particular attention. In this way, as a hunter moved through the town and the land, meeting other hunters, he or she would quickly build up a detailed impression of where the animals had been within the last couple of days. It was noticeable that it was not the past that was discussed, but contemporary events. While Inuit would occasionally reminisce about past hunting trips, information pertaining to current hunting conditions occupied the bulk of their attention. The citizens' band (CB) radio also provides a source of information on present hunting conditions. These machines are set up as an integral part of pitching a camp or moving into a cabin, no matter how temporary. The cumbersome receptor wires will be stretched out and pitched up using anything that comes to hand, be it a rock, oar, or a skidoo. The radio is then tuned to a particular frequency used by the community. It is left running almost constantly and its disjointed conversations, hissing static, and eerily melodic interference are an ever-present background noise to life on the land. It is used either to communicate with other hunters, or simply to listen in on other conversations that are taking place. The information passed is a nearly constant stream of updates of who is out on the land, what location they are at, how the weather is and what animals they have seen or caught. Inuit often act on this new information immediately, since to hesitate can mean missing an opportunity. In the spring, when the first hunters begin to report that the caribou have reached the mainland coast, the excitement in town is pal- Arctic Anthropology 44:2 pable. Hunters will set out over the sea-ice within the next few days, often with particular locations already in mind, determined from what others have said, combined with personal knowledge of animal behavior. Hunters know well where the caribou are likely to go next once in a certain area, and how best to reach locations specified by other hunters. Similarly with the Arctic char run, as the ice is breaking up in the spring and the fish begin to move across the lakes, through the rivers and towards the ocean, daily fishing reports will filter around town, determining where people focus their attentions on the next day. To be even a little behind of what is going on is to stand for hours on the rapidly crumbling lake ice, without a single bite, wondering at the amount of fish someone reported catching here just days ago. Such information does not however provide fixed instructions governing how a hunt will proceed. It instead provides vague guidelines that may be reassessed or abandoned entirely at any point during the process, and Inuit with backup plans are the most likely to be successful (Berkes and Jolly 2001). The vitality of this knowledge therefore lies in the freedom it allows for improvisation and flexibility, and it should be thought of as providing general "rules of thumb" rather than a fixed plan (Suchman 1987:52). This Inuit preference for rapid response and flexibility is complemented by skills of improvisation and adaptability. I will focus on these skills here in order to further explain the strength and utility behind this approach to uncertainty. New technologies have increasingly become a part of Inuit life and it might be expected that they would, to an extent, have reduced the need for these rapid response systems, consequently diminishing Inuit skills in improvisation (Aporta and Higgs 2005:740-742). However, as Sigaut (1993:109-110) notes, although the fear that mechanization will lead to the deskilling of humanity has long accompanied the rise of technology, this fear has proved groundless, as skills have survived, thrived, and evolved in the new era of machines. This is certainly true with Inuit and the tendency for adaptation and improvisation has evolved alongside changes to Inuit lifestyles. This yields a distinct approach to new technology, an approach of which Inuit are proud (Briggs 1991:263; Omura 2002:107-108). This quick and creative improvisation, and the confidence to rely on the products of their work, was demonstrated to me when a hunter's fiberglass boat had a chunk torn out of the hull, either from drifting ice or from him dragging it along rocks. In preparation for an upcoming eight-hour boat journey, traversing the open waters of the straits that separate Victoria Island from the mainland, he repaired the boat using a collection of 91 Bates: Inuit and Scientific Philosophies items mostly found at the dump: a sheet of scrap metal, rubber from an old inner tube, rivets, and some glue that might not have been the right kind, he was not siu:e. In relation to skidoos, some Inuit will set out alone with no tent, radio, or back-up of any kind, on a disheveled skidoo that has broken down frequently over the last three months, but is today held together by some old wire, or a splint made of duct-tape and a chisel. I, on the other hand, fussed over my machine and fretted over every clank or groan it made, ensuring as best I could that it was at its best for every trip out. The results of the two approaches to skidoo maintenance soon revealed which was superior. Inuit skidoos broke down fre• quently, while mine only had problems on a few occasions. However, Inuit skidoos generally got moving again somehow and the owner was able to make his way home. When my skidoo broke, I was rather helpless. The Arctic environment is tough on these machines, as they are designed for temperatures approximately 20-30° C higher than what can be standard for the Cambridge Bay winter. Consequently, even the newest, most cared for skidoo could break down at a moment's notice, in varied and unpredictable ways. It became apparent that it is best to go out on the land armed with first-rate knowledge and a dubious machine, rather than dubious knowledge and a first-rate machine. Planning ahead was all very well, but being able to deal with the unexpected was the only sure way to get home safely. Good hunters therefore rely on being in constant contact with both those around them and the land itself to gain an impression of opportunities and obstacles presented at any given point in time. This is complimented by their own knowledge of the land and animals and their skills at improvisation gained and honed through personal experience, to generate a wealth of flexibly utilized opportunities at any given point in time. Having knowledge of the present is therefore an essential component of Inuit hunting practices, as is maintaining the flexibility which allows response to opportunities and obstacles as they arise. Meanwhile, the ability to work with the unpredictable Arctic environment, rather than fighting against it, and acceptance of current conditions rather than trying to second guess what is coming next reveal themselves as characteristics of contemporary Inuit culture. The ingenuity and spontaneity of Inuit hunters are revealed whether Inuit are fixing a broken skidoo, repairing an aluminum boat, building a shelter, reacting to a change in the weather, or taking advantage of a shifting animal population. Their skills also prove to be admirable, enviable and rarely misplaced, amounting to a highly effective method of approaching the uncertainty inherent in traveling in the Arctic environment. On the other hand, to presume that something will happen can be dangerous. As a consequence, many Inuit today remain unwilling to plan ahead or become locked into a course of action. Indeed, Inuit philosophies may dictate that prediction, planning, and forecasting are impractical, foolhardy, and rather arrogant (Briggs 1968:53 in Omura 2002:106; Briggs 1991:262). Planning in the Community While Inuit philosophies about time reveal themselves during hunting and traveling trips on the land, most Inuit now spend much of their time within permanent settlements. Settlement life adheres to certain timetables and rules, which to an extent structure the lives of contemporary Inuit (Goehring and Stager 1991; Stern 2003:152-154). It is necessary therefore to briefly consider the ways that Inuit philosophies about planning and prediction, so well suited to life on the Arctic tundra, have been affected by the move to a largely sedentary lifestyle. Necessities of settlement life often dictate that Inuit commit themselves to rigid plans long in advance of their commencement, in particular around work contracts. Cambridge Bay is the administrative center for the Kitikmeot region of Nunavut. Many Inuit in the town have found employment in the government offices, as well as in the schools, health center, bank, garages, stores, a large meat plant, and other facilities. Many Inuit workers are also involved in the basic infrastructure that a settlement of Cambridge Bay's size requires, such as water delivery and sewage removal, or huilding work on the town's ever expanding infrastructure. Trips to the south of Canada by plane are another common feature of settlement life, and also require long term planning. Such plans might not come to ftuition for many months, and often require extensive preparation in the interim. That the strict timetables brought to the Arctic by colonialism can disrupt Inuit hunting practices was illustrated by Stefansson (1922:89-97), who recounts with some alarm the ramifications of the prohibition against working on a Sunday that was taken up by Inuit following their conversion to Christianity. He writes of crucial whale hunting opportunities missed and individuals left stranded on the land without a rescue mission being launched. Today, constraints of employment may cast even greater limits on the ability of some Inuit hunters to respond to hunting opportunities as they arise (Condon et al. 1995). Goehring and Stager (1991) have consequently suggested that Inuit had to develop new concepts of time in order to take part in industrial society. They write that the immediacy of action and result that occurred in the previous hunting 92 and gathering regime would have had to be supplanted by a more abstract concept of time in order to recognize the delayed returns of settlement society. However, I have already argued that during the pre-contact era Inuit would plan and prepare for the future when they deemed it appropriate. I would therefore suggest that the increased need for planning enforced by settlement life is unlikely to have caused a dramatic change in thought process. Inuit philosophies of time have therefore been rather more resistant than might be expected, despite undeniable disruptions to hunting practices caused by settlement life. Consequently, many Inuit continue to use long-term planning and prediction selectively and sparingly where possible. Certainly in terms of money and employment, a focus on preparation for uncertainty rather than rigid planning for the future often seems to be in evidence within the settlement. It must be noted that many Inuit have held down the same steady job for many years. For others, however, employment is more flexibly utilized. Opportunities for full time employment are in somewhat short supply in Cambridge Bay, forcing many Inuit to be flexible in their approach to working. Furthermore, I found that many acquaintances who had gained stable full time positions would feel constrained by the routine and would consequently leave, especially in the spring, when the 24-hour sun, the warming air, and the lingering sea ice are ideal for traveling. Regardless of opportunity, therefore, a sizeable proportion of Inuit do not engage in full time emplojnnent, and will instead support themselves throughout the year through a range of occasional employment opportunities. These include guiding for sports hunts, commercial fishing, working out of town at one of the nearby mines, and conducting military exercises with the Canadian Rangers. Sporadic income can also be generated from the manufacture and sale of soapstone carvings, wall hangings, parkas, mitts, and boots. High levels of unemployment and income assistance in the settlement, combined with the fact that many families also support themselves through various subsistence activities on the land that reduce family expenditure on store-bought food items, also decrease the need for commitment to full time work for many Inuit. The "replacement value" of land food in Nunavut has been estimated at between $30 and $35 million a year and its continuing importance, both economically and culturally, should not be underestimated (Hicks and White 2000:38). The money gained from employment may also be flexibly utilized. Again, some Inuit are frugal with their money and may save carefully. For others, however, despite the presence of a bank in the community, cash is often spent immediately Arctic Anthropology 44:2 on receipt, and does not seem to have any value in itself. On receiving a lump sum, many Inuit will spend all they need on food, give some away to family and friends, and gamble the rest in card games. Shortly afterwards they may begin to require money again and will search round the community for a loan. This affects the way that many Inuit work, as once enough money has been secured for the immediate future they see little reason to continue earning. The Euro-Canadians in Cambridge Bay, who may employ Inuit workers in their businesses, can find this highly frustrating. Meanwhile, Inuit can find white people to be greedy and mean with their money, storing it away and perhaps never even spending it. Such apparently carefree habits may give the initial impression that Inuit are giving no thought to the future, a point occasionally made ruefully by their employers. However, these habits indicate a continuation of Inuit philosophies about the future, in which uncertainty is embraced and prepared for accordingly. Through the widespread sharing and circulation of food and money, Inuit are investing in family and friends for the future, as the person who borrows today may be relied on to lend tomorrow (Bird-David 1992:31; Woodburn 1982:440^42), although sharing relationships are not necessarily directly reciprocal. Rather, widespread sharing cements social relationships and ensures that Inuit have a throng of people who will aid them in the future (Bodenhorn 2000; Hovelsrud-Broda 2000; Wenzel 1995a; 2000). Personal hoarding of wealth is rather the antithesis of this philosophy towards the future, as there is no guarantee that money or food saved up and stored away will ever serve any useful purpose, or that it will be enough in the event of disaster. Inuit resistance to scheduled work is not the only way that Western concepts of time come under siege in Arctic settlements. Blizzards sweep in off the tundra, disrupting community schedules for days, as offices and schools are closed and planes are grounded or prevented from landing. At any time of the year fog or low cloud similarly disrupt airplane timetables, and many trips to the airport with bags packed for a journey end only in disappointment. Illnesses similarly grind the community to a halt, as flu epidemics close offices and schools. The 24-hour darkness of midwinter and the 24-hour daylight of midsummer also ill suit those trying to participate in regular work patterns (Stern 2003). Another threat to community schedules emerged while I was living in the Cambridge Bay, as the pipes that deliver water into town froze and burst, delaying and disrupting water services for the entire winter. It may appear that Western concepts of time are absolutely imposed onto Inuit settlements by office hours, fixed weekends, opening times of stores and banks. Bates: Inuit and Scientific Philosophies curfews for children, and bans on driving all terrain vehicles (ATVs) at night, even during periods of 24-hour sun. However, the community rarely runs so smoothly. Inuit philosophies of time often therefore prove to he well placed even within the context of settlement society, and are consequently reinforced. Inuit Philosophies and Environmental Management The ways that Inuit manage uncertainty while hunting and traveling might he thought to hear little relevance to the input they might wish to have in research projects revolving around environmental management. However, my experiences of hunting and traveling with Inuit became crucial to my understanding of the ways that Inuit dealt with certain lines of questioning within research interviews that I undertook towards the end of my time in Cambridge Bay. I argue therefore that Inuit philosophies about the future, although founded in activities taking place around hunting and traveling, can become highly significant when Inuit are called upon to provide knowledge that will aid in environmental management. In these situations the Inuit distaste for efforts to plan and predict may clash with the preoccupations of Western science, which is increasingly focused on management founded on prediction (Adam 1998:57). Two examples may illustrate this point, focusing on discussions around caribou management and climate change respectively. These are taken from 12 semi-structured interviews that I carried out with Inuit elders and hunters towards the end of my time in the community of Cambridge Bay. These interviews had the aim of documenting Inuit knowledge about the Dolphin-Union caribou herd, which migrates past Cambridge Bay twice a year. A translator was used in all but two of these interviews, as interview participants were more comfortable speaking Inuinnaqtun than English. During these interviews, questions about the present and past were answered with comparative willingness. Past journeys on the land, life histories, and old hunting techniques were clearly a pleasure to discuss for most people and the conversation would here flow relatively easily. Elders told of their childhood memories, how and where they had hunted in their youth, and how they had ended up coming to Cambridge Bay. Meanwhile, younger hunters related what they had seen while out traveling. Respondents also appeared to be happy enough to point out caribou migration routes and suggest timings for their movements, to recount where they had seen calves, rutting or wolf kills, or to recall the history of caribou population fluctuations. However, there was marked 93 reluctance from Inuit to make predictions about the Dolphin-Union caribou herd, or to be drawn into discussion of the management of the caribou to ensure the future prosperity of the animals. Inuit would frequently decline to answer these questions, explaining that they did not know or that they could not say. Even where an answer was provided, it was often offered with clear reluctance, and the interviewee would reiterate many times that they were uncertain. Overall, it became apparent that questions about the future of the animals made many Inuit rather uncomfortable. As already discussed, claiming knowledge of the future is perceived as rather futile and even arrogant hy many Inuit, and it is little wonder therefore that they might he unwilling to have such comments documented within an interview. Such Inuit philosophies may however be particularly relevant to discussion about animals. Morrow (1990:150), in her work with Yupiit in Alaska, discusses a "social commitment" to the assumption that one can never fully understand or know the motivations of anyone else, nor predict what they might do. Inuit also abhor efforts to control others (Briggs 1968:53 in Omura 2002:106; Briggs 1970:42; Briggs 1991:267). These social commitments would be extended to include animals, as relationships between Inuit and animals rest on the same principals as social interactions (Wenzel 1991:140; also see Fienup-Riordan 1990:167; 1999:58 for similar observations about Yup'ik in Alaska). In the past, these ideas would have discouraged Inuit from attempting to manage future animal populations. Accordingly, there is little evidence that Inuit or Eskimo groups managed animal populations via sustainable harvesting strategies (Burch 1994; Fienup-Riordan 1990:167-189; Cunn et al 1988:26), despite claims to the contrary (Freeman 1985:274-277; Nuttall 1998:71, 88-89; Riewe and Cambie 1988). Instead, it was maintaining respectful relationships with animals that would facilitate future accessibility to game (Fienup-Riordan 1990:167-189; Wenzel 1991:4-5, 138-140). Efforts within research situations to encourage Inuit to speculate on management solutions for sustainable caribou futures may therefore go against Inuit philosophies of how one can know both the animals and the future, and may amount to being disrespectful to both. As such, they may be particularly troubling to Inuit interviewees. I also noted a particular reluctance to discuss the future impacts of potentially hazardous phenomena such as climate change in negative terms. During my interviews, Inuit elders were keen to explain that climate change was happening. I was told of previously permanent ice banks that had started disappearing in the summer time during the last decade, of lakes that used to keep their ice all year but now melt entirely, and of the 94 mosquitoes around Cambridge Bay getting more numerous. It was only when I asked about the future that there would be a pause. Mostly respondents said they did not know, or they suggested that it would end up being fine, and that the caribou and the Inuit could cope. Wenzel (1995:175) notes a similarly optimistic view of climate change expressed by Inuit in Clyde village on Baffin Island. The philosophies about the future already described may be compounded in this case by an Inuit belief that thoughts and words have an inherent agency, as Morrow describes for Alaskan Yupiit (1990:150; 1996:417). This can be distinguished from the Western view that only actions deliver intended effects. Thus careless words, and in particular definitive statements that fail to recognize the inherent uncertainty of the world, are dangerous. Speaking of the future in negative terms may thus actualize that scenario, creating the bleak situation described. Briggs (1991:285) and G'Neil et al. (1997:35-36) also report an Inuit belief that worrying, brooding, or being pessimistic about the future shortens one's life. Indeed, O'Neil et al. (1997:36) suggest that Inuit in Nunavik perceive the immediate worry caused by scientific discourses about risks to be more damaging than the potential future dangers that such discourses aim to mitigate. These Inuit philosophies described above, as they emerge around climate change, are a contrast to the frequently reported Inuit fear and despair over such phenomena (Armstrong 2001; Clover 2005; Ehrlich 2006). This suggests that Inuit philosophies about the future and the management of its potential risks may frequently be overlooked. Industrial society may be committed to dealing with potential future hazards such as climate change through rigorous environmentally manipulative management strategies based on prediction (for example the setting of carbon emission quotas worldwide or the creation of fiood defenses based on estimates of likely sea level rise). This may lead to assumptions that if Inuit recognize global warming, they must also desire predictive management strategies. Such assumptions are often fundamental to the agendas of research projects with indigenous people, and come to structure and dictate the information generated (Agrawal 1995; Bates 2006; Cruikshank 1998:45-70; Kothari 2001:149; Morrow and Hensel 1992; Mosse 2001:32; Nadasdy 2003:60-61, 94-98; Wenzel 2004:239). However, Inuit may be more concerned with maintaining the flexibility of their knowledge through continuous interaction with the land and animals, so that they are able to respond effectively to whatever the future may bring. True to this, Berkes and Jolly (2001) and Jolly et al. (2002:112-115) describe ways in which Inuit in Arctic Anthropology 44:2 Sach's Harbour are successfully negotiating climate change, through flexibly adjusting hunting techniques, locations, timings and species sought. Flexibility is almost a defining feature of Inuit society (Adams 1971:9), and over the centuries the Inuit have proved themselves to be adept at embracing change, be it migration to a new geographical area, environmental fluctuations, crashes in animal populations or colonialism (Dahl 2000:7-10; Damas 2002:6,23-24; Dorais 1997:88-101; Fossett 2001:67,113; Nuttall 1992:29; Turner 1994: 150-156; Wenzel 1995:172-174). It is unlikely therefore that climate change will be their undoing, and they are right to be confident in their approach to future uncertainty. Planning and "The West" The examination of Inuit philosophies about prediction and uncertainty in this paper has illuminated a distinctive attitude to knowing the environment that contrasts somewhat with the preoccupations of Western science. Inuit appear to accept uncertainty, and find great utility in an in-depth knowledge of the present, coupled with skills of improvisation that allow flexibility to respond to situations as they arise. They may therefore find attempts to predict the future unnecessary or foolhardy. It might seem therefore that Inuit and Western ideas about the future are rather at odds with one another. It is however possible to navigate this apparent impasse, if we focus on the ways that uncertainty and planning play out in practice during scientific research and management. It is towards these processes that I now turn. During my fieldwork in Cambridge Bay, the problems that can occur in the Arctic due to commitment to a "plan," and the comparative strengths of the Inuit methodology of dealing with the future, were perhaps most forcefully illustrated to me while I worked as both participant and observer on an ecological science project (Bates 2006). This project was based at the University of Aberdeen and the Centre of Ecology and Hydrology in Banchory, Scotland. Its aim was the investigation of aspects of the behavior of the Dolphin-Union caribou herd. I accompanied the main investigator and her assistant to their field site west of Cambridge Bay on numerous occasions and helped with vegetation sampling and collection of muskox feces. I also accompanied the ecologists on trips on the land with Inuit hunters. During these expeditions we collected jaws and sections of stomach from caribou in order to determine the ages and parasite loads of the animals taken by hunters. In dealing with the unpredictability inherent in ecological fieldwork on the Arctic tundra, the study's best-laid plans rapidly proved to be more Bates: Inuit and Scientific Philosophies of a hindrance than an advantage. The snows left late in 2003, meaning that there wras no access to the tundra vegetation, which was crucial to the ecological project's commencement. This set the project schedule hack hy almost a month. Flights out of the community had already heen predetermined, and the Arctic summer can he frustratingly short. This limited the period availahle for carrying out the detailed methodology required, forcing a restructuring of the timetahle of work. This was not the only divergence from the initial plan. Despite weeks of work having been devoted to it, a whole section of the project investigating the dispersal potential of parasites in musk oxen feces was dropped entirely when no larval stages of the parasites were found. Furthermore, the carihou themselves proved to he absent from areas that were crucial for the study's predetermined methodology, creating a brief panic and forcing a quick realignment of the project's goals. Commitment to a plan also proved difficult in other ways, as it dictated that activities were carried out on days that were rather unsuitable. On one memorable occasion the exposed hillsides on which we worked were blasted and drenched by heavy winds and sporadic downpours. This weather rendered the study's methodology, which at this point involved the delicate clipping and storage of the tundra vegetation, almost impossible. From the low hills on which we worked we could watch these storms approaching out over the ocean, as menacing slate-grey cloudbanks trailed by tendrils of torrential rain, yet we hunkered down and worked regardless. While the assistant and I quickly grew fed up and started to moan at our predicament, the project leader was admirably determined to get the work done, pressured ever by the predetermined schedule of work. Faced with the conflicting pressures of a chaotic Arctic environment and the desire for an organized scientific project, the ecologists showed considerable skill in shifting between two approaches, that of highly structured planning and that of rapid reaction and adaptation. During this process it became increasingly clear which was the more appropriate mode of operation on the tundra. Overall, the ecologists' work emerged not as the orderly implementation of a pre-determined methodology, but as a process of rapid response that bore a marked similarity to that preferred by Inuit. "The plan" seemed to trail along in the wake of this, shifting in response to actions taken rather than dictating them. Having to react in this way would seem to he an unavoidable consequence of working in such an unpredictable environment. However, while the Arctic may provide an extreme example, Suchman (1987:viii-ix, 52) suggests that no matter how planned any action is, once underway it will always hecome a situated 95 process of ad hoc response and improvization, as circumstances can never fully be anticipated and many obstacles and opportunities will only reveal themselves once a practitioner is fully engaged in an activity. Plans are thus only really useful as orientation prior to launching into an activity, so that the best starting point for forthcoming improvisation can be obtained. Suchman (1987) also notes that in industrial society fixed plans are most often invoked after an event, to lend an aura of rationality, credibility, and tidiness to what actually took place. True to this, scientific fieldwork is generally represented as having followed a simple, algorithmic series of orderly, impersonal, and pre-determined procedures. This conceals much of the messiness of such studies, lending the impression of methodologies so meticulously thought out in advance that their implementation requires minimal personal involvement and skill. Such representations often receive more attention from the academic west than the processes behind them (Turnhull 2000:91). The very idea of pre-determined plans that can be flawlessly followed through may therefore be something of a myth, developed through Western society's preoccupation with rationality, order, and certainty (Golinski 1998:2-6; Medawar 1969:8; Milton 2001:21, 129-132, 150; Polanyi 1978:168-170; Turnbull 2000:82, 210). It is not only in terms of scientific fieldwork practice that avenues for collaboration can be found between Western and Inuit ways of knowing. The ways that scientific predictive models function in practice has also led to questions over some of the assumptions that underlie Western science. Science's history of environmental management hased on prediction is notable mostly for its inaccuracy, as large time spans and multiple pathways are often unfathomable to scientific disciplines, which tend to focus on linear cause and effect (Adam 1998:50; Anderson 1999; Feit 1988:83; Freeman 1985:267-277, 1992:9-10; Ludwig et al. 1993; Riewe and Gamble 1988:31; Roepstorff 2001:85). Some branches of science, such as chaos theory, have made efforts to understand and account for uncertainty. However, their influence has so far remained limited (Adam 1998:44-45). Generally speaking, by assuming that it will eventually be able to eliminate uncertainty from its predictions, much of science presently limits its capacity for effective environmental management. Moreover, scientific knowledge about complex environmental phenomena is itself generally uncertain and contradictory. Indeed, this conflict and uncertainty is essential to the dynamism and progression of science (Kuhn 1962:11-12; Medawar 1969:49; Popper 1979:36-37). However, this process must be somewhat obscured from view in order to maintain the public or policy maker's 96 Arctic Anthropology 44:2 confidence in tbe current authority of scientific knowledge (Beck [1986] 1992:164). This drive towards certainty and suppression of dissent may cause crucial amhiguities to he overlooked, leading to policy and action for environmental management heing hased on incomplete data (Walters 1997). Recognition of these limitations to scientific knowing has led to calls for science in general to confront, accept, and attempt to understand uncertainty (Adam 1998:59; Dove 1996:581; Ludwig et al. 1993). Adaptive management strategies, which are constantly reviewed and updated, rather than based on rigid strategies and long term predictions, are increasingly seen as a way around this current impasse in relation to glohal environmental change (Peterson et al. 1997). This may finally allow appropriate action towards sustainable futures. In the case of research into Inuit knowledge of the environment, it may also allow for a more meaningful collaboration with Inuit, which suits Inuit philosophies about the future. Conclusion Through an ethnographic study of the ways that Inuit and scientific philosophies about the future and its uncertainties play out in practice, I have argued that Inuit philosophies fair admirably in comparison to Western preoccupations. Rather than rigid planning and prediction, many Inuit instead focus on efficient response and improvisation to whatever reveals itself in the present, alongside a certain amount of general preparation to cater for any eventuality. This Inuit approach to knowing, in which future uncertainty is positively embraced, does not limit itself in the ways that science does. Appreciation and recognition of these Inuit philosophies may therefore allow for more effective management of the Arctic environment, via adaptive management strategies. It may also generate a more meaningful collaboration between researchers and Inuit. In this way Inuit may be able to inform thinking on environmental management, rather than being limited to the submission of information that can be slotted into predetermined scientific concepts about the future. Acknowledgments. This work would not have been possible without the hospitality, kindness, and tolerance of the people I worked with in Cambridge Bay, for which they have my sincere thanks. I am also grateful to Tim Ingold, Steve Albon, Nancy Wachowich, Joelene Hughes, Martina T)n:rell, and Rachel Olson for reading early drafts of this paper, or the thesis on which it is based. 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