REGIONAL
CHECK-UP
2016
Vancouver Island/Coast Development Region
An
Economic
Analysis
for the
Region
CPABC
Regional
Check-Up
2016
www.bccheckup.com
1
CPABC Regional Check-Up 2016
Vancouver Island/Coast Development Region (VICDR)
HIGHLIGHTS
Population:
793,823
#2
WORK
+0.9%
most populous
development region
New Jobs:
82.5%
Unemployment:
residents
Low Canadian
dollar attracted
more tourists
+5,300
INVEST
BC
#1
#2
#3
of jobs are in
service sector
Youth Unemployment:
VICDR
+6.1%
+4.0%
+5.1%
BC
(+3,800)
Transportation &
Warehousing (+2,300)
Nine-year low
for value of
non-residential
construction
building permits
to
Value of Proposed
Major Projects:
Business Bankruptcies:
-4.5% $47.4 billion
-30.8% 27 reports
to
to
(between Sep 2014 and Sep 2015)
Housing Market:
Consumer Insolvencies:
Low Interest Rates + Population Growth =
in housing
sales and
+32.8%
Educational Attainment:
69.9%
Ferry passenger
vehicles
Construction
Building Permits:
+19.4%
Ferry
passengers
Health Care & Social
Assistance (+3,900)
+7.2% $1.5 billion
LIVE
Regional airport
arrivals
Industries with the most job gains:
6.3% > 6.2% 9.7% < 9.9%
VICDR
Vancouver
Island/
Coast
of labour force
has a post-secondary
certificate/diploma (+2.3 ppt)
in housing
starts
Personal Bankruptcies:
2.2 per 1,000
adults or
-4.3%
Consumer Proposals:
1.7 per 1,000
adults or
+13.3%
www.bccheckup.com
Source: CPABC Regional Check-Up 2016. All numbers are from 2015. Increases/decreases are in comparison to 2014 data.
Executive Summary
2015 proved to be a favourable year for the Vancouver
Early indications for 2016 are mixed. Vancouver’s
Island/Coast Development Region (VICDR). Immigration
super-charged real estate market is having ripple
and tourism, which have been primary drivers of the
effects in Vancouver Island/Coast, as Lower Mainland
region’s economy for many years, both increased.
homeowners cash out and relocate to the region,
Building permits and housing sales were up, drawing
creating bidding wars, higher prices, and record real
down overbuilt inventories and stimulating housing
estate sales.1 According to the Financial Post, high real
starts and construction employment gains.
estate prices in Vancouver are also driving talent to
The region’s labour force grew by 6,400, which included
the return of 1,600 workers who had previously opted
Victoria, which is home to a $4 billion tech industry that
employs about 23,000 workers.2
out of the labour market. Labour force educational
The reported surplus of buyers compared to sellers
attainment also increased as workers with post-
appears to suggest population growth, increased
secondary accreditation increased by 7,700, while those
housing starts, and job creation in construction and
lacking these credentials declined by 4,100.
other real-estate-related service industries. The
In 2015, 5,300 new jobs were created in the VICDR,
absorbing most of the region’s labour force gain.
However, the unemployment rate rose slightly by
2.0 percentage points (ppt) for the labour force as a
relatively low Canadian dollar should continue to attract
tourism activity. Collectively, these factors should lead
to job creation that will lift the region’s economy by the
end of 2016.
whole, but more significantly for those aged 19 to 24
The latest labour force figures indicate that employment
(+5.0 ppt), which resulted in a small increase in youth
peaked in December and has since been on a downward
opting out of the labour market. Business bankruptcies
trend.3 This has resulted in the loss of 9,700 jobs over
declined significantly and consumer insolvencies held
the first quarter of 2016, of which 6,900 were in the
steady, reflecting the region’s more positive economic
service sector.
climate.
Major capital investment remained steady, with total
project value hovering between $61.0 billion and $61.9
billion over the 12 months ending in September 2015.
However, new project proposals and construction starts
were down and 51.8% of total project value was tied up
in LNG projects that may take many years to realize.
1
Vancouver Island Real Estate Board, “Housing Market Shows No Signs of Slowing Down,” Monthly Statistics Package, February 2016.
Katia Dmitrieva, “Millennials fleeing Vancouver for cities with more affordable housing, threatening city’s tech economy,” Financial Post, March 14,
2016.
2
3
Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey estimates (LFS), Employment by economic region and North American Industry Classification System
(NAICS), annual (persons), CANSIM Table 282-0061.
www.bccheckup.com
3
Seven of the 11 service sector industries contracted.
Employment in the goods sector also decreased by
Hardest hit were the trade, educational services, and
2,900 jobs in the first quarter of 2016. The largest
accommodation & food services industries, which
reductions were in the manufacturing industry and
collectively lost 8,200 jobs. The transportation &
the forestry, fishing, mining, and oil & gas industry,
warehousing and health care industries added another
which declined by 2,400 and 1,600 jobs respectively.
3,200 job losses.
Comparing year-to-year trends, seasonality may be a
Of the four service industries reporting gains, the
professional, scientific & technical services industry had
the largest increase, adding 3,900 positions. Business,
building & other support services, information, culture &
recreation, and other services were the other industries
that expanded, adding 1,400 jobs collectively.
4
CPABC Regional Check-Up 2016
factor. Construction employment remained stable, while
the agriculture industry was up 600 jobs, again likely
due to seasonality.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
WORK Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Job Creation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Unemployment Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
INVEST Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Business & Investment Activity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Bankruptcies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
LIVE Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Educational Attainment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Consumer Insolvencies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
www.bccheckup.com
5
and Thompson-Okanagan, which were the only other
development regions in BC to experience population
growth last year.
Population growth in the VICDR has for many years
Vancouver
Island/Coast
been mostly due to the addition of new residents from
other provinces, many of whom were retirees.8 2015
was no exception. Interprovincial migration was more
than double that of British Columbians relocating to
The Vancouver Island/Coast
Development Region (VICDR)
encompasses 84,231 km2 of land on
the region.9 International immigration accounted for
Vancouver Island, the Gulf Islands, and the central
Within the development region, population growth was
portion of BC’s mainland coast from Powell River to
uneven. 89% of new residents moved to the Victoria
just north of Ocean Falls and Bella Coola. In 2015, the
and Nanaimo areas, with the remainder moving to
region was home to 793,823 residents, making it the
the Comox Valley, Strathcona, and Cowichan Valley
second-most-populous development region in BC after
regional districts. In contrast, population declined in the
Mainland/Southwest.
Alberni-Clayoquot, Powell River, and Mount Waddington
4
5
approximately 5% of newcomers while natural increase
was negative.
regional districts.
Almost half (48%) of the VICDR’s population lives in
Victoria’s Capital Regional District, with 20% in Nanaimo
The VICDR’s economy reflects the region’s varied
and another 22% principally in small to medium-
settlement pattern. The forestry, fishing, mining, and oil
sized communities in the mid and southeast coast of
& gas and related manufacturing industries, which are
Vancouver Island. The rest of the region is sparsely
the region’s traditional economic base, remain important
populated and largely undeveloped.
in the mid and north Island and mainland coast, even
6
though employment in these industries is now a fraction
In 2015, the VICDR’s population grew by 7,284 persons,
of what it once was.
an annual increase of 0.9% that marked the second
consecutive year of a return to pre-2011 growth rates.7
This increase ranked third behind Mainland/Southwest
4
Statistics Canada, Census 2011.
Statistics Canada, Estimates of population by economic region, sex and age group for July 1, based on the Standard Geographical Classification
(SGC) 2011, CANSIM Table 051-0059.
5
6
Government of BC, Welcome BC: Vancouver Island/Coast.
Statistics Canada, Estimates of population by economic region, sex and age group for July 1, based on the Standard Geographical Classification
(SGC) 2011, CANSIM Table 051-0059.
7
6
8
Statistics Canada, Interprovincial migrants by province or territory of origin and destination, CANSIM Table 051-0019.
9
Ibid.
CPABC Regional Check-Up 2016
The service sector is now the region’s primary employer,
predicted an increase of 5% to 7% in tourist visits.14 By
supporting 82.5% of all jobs in 2015. Population
the end of 2015, regional airport arrivals had increased
growth and tourism activity are the region’s primary
by 6.1%, and ferry passengers and vehicles by 4.0% and
economic drivers, generating investment, construction
5.1% respectively.15,16 In addition, hotel occupancy saw an
activity, and demand for services. In addition, the
increase of 1.6 ppt to 5.3 ppt.17
10
public administration industry is a major employer and
economic catalyst in Victoria’s Capital Regional District.
The recovering US housing market compensated for
the decline in Asian demand last year, resulting in
2015 saw significant improvement in the region’s
higher exports of both lumber and raw logs. The Port of
economy. The continued recovery of population growth,
Nanaimo reported lumber and raw logs export volume
combined with record low interest rates, stimulated
increases of 12.1% and 17.5%, respectively, last year
a 19.4% increase in real estate sales, drawing down
compared to 2014.18
11
property inventories and spurring a 32.8% increase
in housing starts.12 The total value of building permits
went up by 7.0% as a result of higher investment,
particularly in residential but also industrial construction,
which made up for lower spending on commercial and
institutional projects.13 This translated into job gains in
construction and related service industries.
A lower Canadian dollar motivated more Canadians to
Unfortunately, not all news was positive in the resource
sector. Plummeting commodity prices negatively
impacted exploration and mining operations, including
suspension of activities at the Myra Falls and Quinsam
mines near Campbell River.19,20 Fisheries, especially
aquaculture—of which the region commands 98% of
BC’s shellfish and 58% of its finfish licenses—remained
constrained by regulations and labour shortages.21, 22, 23
have “staycations” and also attracted higher numbers
of US and international visitors. Mid-year estimates
Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, Annual Averages, CANSIM 282-0131.
10
11
BC Real Estate Association.
12
CMHC, Preliminary Housing Start Data – Dec. 2015, January 2016
13
BC Stats, BC Building Permits for Development Regions and Regional Districts by Type, February 2016.
14
Vancouver Island Economic Alliance, State of the Island Economic Report, 2015.
Victoria, Nanaimo and Comox Airport Authorities and BC Ministry of Tourism, Research, Planning & Evaluation, Destination BC – 2015 Tourism
Indicators, Vancouver Island & Coast, February 2016.
15
16
BC Ferries, Traffic Statistics.
17
BC Ministry of Tourism, Research, Planning & Evaluation, Destination BC – 2015 Tourism Indicators, Vancouver Island & Coast, Feb, 2016.
18
Nanaimo Port Authority, Cargo Statistics, 2010-2015.
19
Business in Vancouver, “56 people left on site as Myra Falls mine lays off nearly 100 workers,” October 23, 2015.
20
CoalWatch Comox Valley, website.
21
Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Current Valid Shellfish License Holders, November 2015.
22
Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Current Valid Finfish License Holders, January 2016.
23
BC Salmon Farmers Association, Economic Impact Study of BC Farm-Raised Salmon Industry, 2015.
www.bccheckup.com
7
CPABC Regional Check-Up 2016
Comparison between Development Regions
DEMOGRAPHICS
Population in BC: 4,683,139 residents
Thompson-Okanagan (+1.5%)
Mainland/Southwest (+1.2%)
Vancouver Island/Coast (+0.9%)
90%
Kootenay (-0.1%)
Northeast and
Northwest BC* (-1.2%)
Cariboo (-1.7%)
of BC’s residents
live in Mainland/Southwest,
Vancouver Island/Coast,
and Thompson-Okanagan.
WORK
New Jobs in BC:
+27,800
~2/3
Unemployment
Rate in BC:
6.2%
Unemployment Rate across BC:
Kootenay
of jobs created were
in the service sector.
Cariboo
Northwest BC
Job Creation across BC:
Thompson-Okanagan
25,000
Vancouver Island/Coast
Mainland/
Southwest
Mainland/Southwest
20,000
Northeast
BC
15,000
10,000
Vancouver
Island/Coast
5,000
0
Northeast
Cariboo
Kootenay
Northwest
BC
ThompsonOkanagan
2014 2015 Change
6.9% 7.4% +0.5%
6.0% 7.0% +1.0%
8.0% 7.0% -1.0%
6.3% 6.4% +0.1%
6.1% 6.3% +0.2%
6.0% 6.0% +0.0%
4.9% 5.9% +1.0%
6.1% 6.2% +0.1%
Youth
Unemployment
Rate in BC:
+0.7% 9.9%
to
-5,000
Youth unemployment is highest in
Kootenay, Cariboo, and Mainland/Southwest.
-10,000
*Northwest BC is made up of the Nechako and North Coast development regions.
Source: CPABC Regional Check-Up 2016. All numbers are from 2015. Increases/decreases are in comparison to 2014 data.
8
CPABC Regional Check-Up 2016
Work Indicators
Job Creation
Canada’s labour market was
The finance, insurance, real estate & leasing and
significantly affected by last
business, building & other support services industries
year’s plunge in oil prices
increased by 2,200 jobs collectively, in response to the
and resulting depreciation
influx of new residents and the buoyant housing and
of the Canadian dollar. In
construction markets. The educational services and
the Vancouver Island/Coast
public administration industries also gained 1,300 new
Development Region, job creation stagnated until June
jobs collectively.
and then steadily increased for the remainder of the
year, largely stimulated by population growth. By the
end of 2015, annual average employment was up 5,300
jobs over 2014. Just over 60% of this growth occurred in
the Victoria Census Metropolitan Area.
Overall, these gains were sufficient to offset job losses
in the five remaining service industries. Surprisingly, the
hardest hit was the accommodation & food services
industry, which reported 1,700 fewer jobs. This is a
sharp contrast to last year’s higher tourism figures.
The region’s job growth rate was 1.5% in 2015, which
Labour shortages, including the impact of changes to
was on par with that of the Mainland/Southwest
the federal Temporary Foreign Worker Program, may
Development Region and above the provincial growth
explain this seeming contradiction.
rate of 1.2%. The region’s absolute gain was second only
to the Mainland/Southwest’s addition of 21,300 jobs.24
Second-hardest hit was the professional, scientific
& technical services industry, which lost 1,600 jobs,
The service sector was responsible for the bulk of
primarily in accounting, computer & management,
Vancouver Island/Coast’s job growth in 2015. Six out of
scientific, and technical consulting services.
11 service industries expanded, resulting in a net increase
Employment in trades continued a five-year downward
of 4,700 new jobs (see Table 1-1). This was a significant
trend, losing 1,100 jobs. The information, culture &
improvement as it offset almost half of the job losses in
recreation and other services industries also contracted
the service sector in 2014.
by 600 jobs collectively.
The health care & social assistance industry, which is
The goods sector created 600 new jobs in 2015.
subject to growing demand from the region’s high and
This growth was due entirely to 3,800 new hires in
increasing percentage of seniors,
25
saw the largest gain
with 3,900 new jobs. Employment in the transportation
& warehousing industry increased by 2,300 jobs, more
than recouping 2014 losses to reach its highest level
since 2008. This growth was due to hiring in transit, taxi,
and postal/courier services.26
construction that offset job cuts in the other four
industries in this sector.
Agriculture reported the largest decline, with a
reduction of 1,600 positions, to reach a 10-year
employment low.
Northwest BC is comprised of the Nechako and North Coast development regions.
24
25
Vancouver Island Economic Alliance, State of the Island Economic Report, 2015.
26
Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, Custom Table. Employment NAICS 234 industries for BC and its Regions, 2010 to 2015.
www.bccheckup.com
9
Jobs in manufacturing fell by 1,200, reflecting losses in
However, job gains in forestry and logging, stemming
both the wood and pulp manufacturing sub-industries.
from higher demand for logs and lumber, disguised
Given higher production and exports last year, these
larger losses in oil and gas that likely resulted from
losses may reflect unfilled job vacancies rather than
Alberta’s oil patch layoffs.27
cuts. The region’s utilities and forestry, fishing, mining,
and oil & gas industries also contracted slightly, with a
collective loss of 600 jobs.
Table 1-1: Employment, Vancouver Island/Coast Development Region, 2010 to 201528
Job Creation (000)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
5-Year
2010-15
1-Year
2014-15
TOTAL EMPLOYMENT (000)
377.8
357.8
358.6
362.2
352.0
357.3
-20.5
+5.3
Goods-Producing Sector (000)
67.6
60.7
58.4
62.0
61.9
62.5
-5.1
+0.6
Agriculture
4.8
3.7
3.6
4.5
3.8
2.2
-2.6
-1.6
Forestry, fishing, mining, oil and gas
5.8
7.6
7.6
8.7
9.4
9.0
+3.2
-0.4
x
x
x
x
1.7
1.5
n/a
-0.2
Construction
38.3
30.3
29.2
32.1
29.5
33.3
-5.0
+3.8
Manufacturing
17.7
17.9
16.7
15.7
17.6
16.4
-1.3
-1.2
Services-Producing Sector (000)
310.2
297.1
300.3
300.2
290.1
294.8
-15.4
4.7
Trade
63.7
57.7
57.7
55.6
54.0
52.9
-10.8
-1.1
Transportation & warehousing
13.8
14.3
14.8
16.4
14.7
17.0
+3.2
+2.3
Finance, insurance, real estate & leasing
21.6
18.3
17.7
15.4
15.9
17.3
-4.3
+1.4
Utilities
Professional, scientific & technical services
24.7
26.9
25.2
25.6
28.4
26.8
+2.1
-1.6
Business, building & other support services
17.0
16.5
16.9
17.8
11.3
12.1
-4.9
+0.8
Educational services
24.8
21.7
25.2
28.4
26.4
27.2
+2.4
+0.8
Health care & social assistance
58.6
53.6
56.8
52.8
54.1
58.0
-0.6
+3.9
Information, culture & recreation
14.7
16.2
14.5
15.0
15.2
14.9
+0.2
-0.3
Accommodation & food services
29.0
30.1
28.3
32.6
29.8
28.1
-0.9
-1.7
Other services
14.5
14.2
16.3
16.5
16.7
16.4
+1.9
-0.3
Public administration
27.8
27.6
26.8
24.3
23.5
24.0
-3.8
+0.5
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey Historical Review.
27
CBC News, “Alberta Oil Sector Layoffs Bring Islanders Back Home,” January 8, 2016.
Industries with “-” are estimated to have less than 1,500 employed at that particular point in time; as a result, the numbers presented in the table
may not add up to total sector figures, and job creation statistics cannot be calculated.
28
10
CPABC Regional Check-Up 2016
Unemployment Rate
In 2015, Vancouver Island/Coast’s unemployment rate
rise in unemployment, full-time and part-time workers
increased over the first quarter from 5.2% in January
increased by 2,900 and 2,300 workers, respectively, last
to 6.4% in April, moderating slightly over the summer
year, explaining the re-entry of previously discouraged
months before spiking to a high of 6.6% in September.
workers.
This resulted in an annual average unemployment rate
The region’s unemployment rate in 2015 was the third
of 6.3%, which was 0.2 ppt higher than in 2014.
lowest among the development regions after the
Last year’s increase in unemployment resulted from the
Northeast (5.9%) and Mainland/Southwest (6.0%).
addition of 6,400 persons to the region’s labour force,
See our summary infographic for regional comparisons.
which exceeded job growth. New residents, together
with the return of 1,600 workers who had previously
not participated in the job market, were responsible
for the labour force expansion. Notwithstanding the
Table 1-2: Unemployment Rate, Vancouver Island/Coast Development Region, 2010 to 2015
Percentage Point
(ppt) Change
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
5-Year
2010-15
1-Year
2014-15
Vancouver Island/Coast
6.3
7.8
6.2
6.3
6.1
6.3
0.0 ppt
+0.2 ppt
British Columbia
7.6
7.5
6.8
6.6
6.1
6.2
-1.4 ppt
+0.1 ppt
Region
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, Custom Table.
Youth unemployment in the VICDR also increased
The VICDR’s youth unemployment rate last year placed
last year, by 0.5 ppt to 9.7%. Layoffs and lack of job
it in the middle of the development regions.
opportunities for young workers were the primary
See our summary infographic for regional comparisons.
reasons for this trend.
Table 1-3: Youth (aged 19 to 24 years) Unemployment Rate, Vancouver Island/Coast Development Region,
2010 to 2015
Percentage Point
(ppt) Change
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
5-Year
2010-15
1-Year
2014-15
Vancouver Island/Coast
11.0
12.4
10.6
10.2
9.2
9.7
-1.3 ppt
+0.5 ppt
British Columbia
11.3
11.8
11.3
10.7
9.2
9.9
-1.4 ppt
+0.7 ppt
Region
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, Custom Table.
www.bccheckup.com
11
Invest Indicators
Business and
Investment Activity
Capital investment in
As of the third quarter of 2015, there were 148 projects
commercial, industrial, and
listed for the VICDR in BC’s Major Projects Inventory. Of
residential infrastructure
these, 69 projects valued at $47.4 billion were proposed,
has been an important
57 valued at $11.9 billion were under construction, and
generator of employment and economic growth in
18 valued at $2.5 billion were on hold. LNG projects,
Vancouver Island/Coast for many years.
which may be very long term, comprised more than
After partial recovery from the recent recession in 2014,
total capital investment in the region over the 12-month
period ending in September 2015 remained stable. The
total value of all projects proposed, under construction,
or on hold fluctuated between $61.0 billion and $61.8
billion over this period.29 While the value of new projects
half (51.8%) or $32.0 billion of total project value.
Residential/commercial developments accounted for
the second-largest share at $15.2 billion or 24.5%, while
power projects, municipal infrastructure, mines and
industrial developments, and military facility upgrades
made up the rest.
proposed and starting construction declined by 72.1%
New projects starting construction over the 12 months
and 33.4%, respectively, those on hold almost doubled.
prior to September 2015 included:
The seeming contradiction between these statistics
•
Eight residential/commercial projects valued at
and overheated residential real estate sales, growth in
$670 million, of which two were in Sooke, three in
construction employment, and increases in housing
Victoria, and three in Nanaimo;
starts and building permit values from last year begs
questioning. One reason may be that building permit
•
Road/McKenzie interchange in Victoria;
values for non-residential construction were at a nineyear low, down 17.4% compared to 2014, while residential
$85 million for the TransCanada Highway Admirals
•
$82 million for two office complexes in Victoria; and
•
$29 million for the Campbell River Substation
construction values were up 19.0%. Another possibility
is that construction activity was focused on large
multi-phase developments already in progress, such as
Langford’s $2.0 billion Westhills residential project and
the $1.1 billion John Hart Generating Station in Campbell
River.
29
12
BC Ministry of Jobs, Tourism and Skills Training, Major Projects Inventory.
CPABC Regional Check-Up 2016
capacity upgrade.
Venture capital investment,30 although small in
The region is the second-largest cluster of high-tech
comparison to infrastructure investment, has grown
industries after the Mainland/Southwest Development
considerably in recent years and is crucial for small
Region, with approximately 900 companies employing
start-up companies, particularly in the high-tech sector.
23,000 direct and indirect workers and generating
In 2015, 86 venture capital deals valued at $450 million
approximately $4.0 billion in economic impact annually.32
were completed in BC, which was down by 18.8% from
2014.31
Bankruptcies
Business bankruptcies tend to reflect the state of
This was the largest percentage decline among the
both the BC and local economy, rising when times
development regions, followed by a 25.4% reduction
are difficult and falling when things improve. 2015 is
in Mainland/Southwest and a 20.8% reduction in
illustrative of this as business bankruptcies in the region
Thompson-Okanagan.
fell by 30.8%—from 39 reports in 2014 to 27 reports in
In total, business bankruptcies in BC declined by 23.5%—
2015.
from 200 to 153 reports—in 2015.
See our summary infographic for regional comparisons.
Table 1-4: Business Bankruptcies, Vancouver Island/Coast Development Region, 2010 to 2015
Percentage
Change
Business Bankruptcies
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
5-Year
2010-15
1-Year
2014-15
40
34
23
40
39
27
-32.5%
-30.8%
Source: Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy Canada.
Financial capital provided to start-up companies (usually in the IT sector) in either the inception phase or a period of early growth, and is
generally characterized by high risk.
30
31
Canadian Venture Capital and Private Equity Association, 2015 Canadian Venture Capital Market Overview.
32
BC Innovation Council, The VIATEC Awards and beyond: the burgeoning tech scene in Victoria, Blog, June 2015.
www.bccheckup.com 13
CPABC Regional Check-Up 2016
Comparison between Development Regions
INVEST
Major Projects in BC:
Value of Major Projects
Under Construction:
352
major projects
are currently under
construction.
Over half are in
Mainland/Southwest.
Business
Bankruptcies in BC:
LIVE
-23.5%
153 reports
to
-5.3%
$75.4 billion
to
Only Cariboo and North Coast
saw an increase in the number
of reported business bankruptcies.
Educational Attainment in BC:
1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#
70.2%
of BC’s labour force
has a post-secondary degree
or higher.
Consumer Insolvencies in BC:
Personal Bankruptcies:
1.5 per 1,000
adults or
-11.8%
Mainland/Southwest (72.4%)
Vancouver Island/Coast (69.9%)
Kootenay (69.1%)
Thompson-Okanagan (66.3%)
Northwest BC (58.7%)
Cariboo (56.2%)
Northeast (53.8%)
Consumer Proposals:
1.5 per 1,000
adults or
+15.4%
Increases in the number of consumer proposals drove up the
insolvency rate in Cariboo, Kootenay, and Northwest BC.
*Northwest BC is made up of the Nechako and North Coast development regions.
Source: CPABC Regional Check-Up 2016. All numbers are from 2015. Increases/decreases are in comparison to 2014 data.
14
CPABC Regional Check-Up 2016
LIVE Indicators
Educational Attainment
Educational attainment is
accounted for 7,400 or 96.1% of new workers in 2015.
an important determinant
The gain in a post-secondary-educated workforce in
of labour productivity,
the region is not surprising given that Victoria is a hub
employment resilience, and
of post-secondary education institutions, which makes
long-term income potential. In
well-educated potential workers readily available. In
2015, the percentage of the VICDR’s labour force aged
addition, the public administration industry, which is
25 to 54 with post-secondary accreditation increased by
the region’s largest employer, has in recent years had a
2.3 ppt to its highest-ever level of 69.9%. This increase
policy of hiring higher-educated workers.
returned the region to its long-standing second-place
These gains reflect the shift towards knowledge-based
position behind the Mainland/Southwest Development
industries that has been occurring in the region. In
Region.
2015 alone, 6,100 jobs were added in health sciences,
Educational attainment of BC’s labour force has been
business, and finance & management.33 In contrast,
trending upward throughout the province for many years
20,700 jobs were lost in sales and service, as well as
as post-secondary training has increasingly become a
occupations unique to primary industries, where jobs
job prerequisite in most industries.
requiring less educational attainment are more plentiful.
The development region’s increase in labour force
The VICDR’s gain tied the Mainland/Southwest for third
educational attainment reflects both the addition of
place behind Northwest BC and Thompson-Okanagan
7,700 workers aged 25 to 54 with post-secondary
(3.4 ppt).
accreditation and a shift away from workers with less
See our summary infographic for regional comparisons.
education as this group declined by 4,100. It is also
interesting to note that those with university education
Table 1-5: Percent of Labour Force Aged 25 to 54 with a Post-Secondary Certificate/Diploma or Higher,
Vancouver Island/Coast Development Region, 2010 to 2015
Percentage Point
(ppt) Change
Region
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
5-Year
2010-15
1-Year
2014-15
Vancouver Island/Coast
63.7%
63.9%
65.6%
65.6%
67.6%
69.9%
+6.2 ppt
+2.3 ppt
British Columbia
64.3%
65.9%
66.5%
67.9%
68.1%
70.2%
+5.9 ppt
+2.1 ppt
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, Custom Table.
Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey estimates (LFS), Employment by economic region and National Occupational Classification for Statistics,
CANSIM Table 282-0127.
33
www.bccheckup.com 15
Consumer Insolvencies
Consumer insolvency occurs for many reasons related
proportion of personal bankruptcies has declined from
to personal circumstances as well as the state of the
80% to 56% over the past five years as more people opt
economy in general. When facing insolvency, individuals
for consumer proposals. In 2015, personal bankruptcies
can either declare bankruptcy or seek a consumer
went down by 4.3%, while consumer proposals rose by
proposal whereby they negotiate partial repayment of
13.3%.
their debts and retain ownership of their assets. The
Comparing the region’s 2015 insolvency rate to that of
latter has become a more popular option since 2008
other development regions, it was the second highest
changes to the Bankruptcy and Insolvency Act, which
after the Cariboo at 4.2 per 1,000 persons.
increased the qualifying limit of non-mortgage debt to
$250,000.
See our summary infographic for regional comparisons.
In 2015, the total insolvency rate per 1,000 adults (aged
18 and older) in Vancouver Island/Coast remained
unchanged from 2014. The region’s insolvency rate has
also remained fairly constant since 2011. However, the
Table 1-6: Annual Consumer Insolvency Rate per 1,000 Adults (Aged 18 Years and Older),
Vancouver Island/Coast Development Region, 2010 to 2015
Percentage Point
(ppt) Change
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
5-Year
2010-15
1-Year
2014-15
Insolvency
4.0
3.8
3.8
3.9
3.8
3.8
-5.0%
0.0%
Bankruptcy
3.2
2.8
2.5
2.5
2.3
2.2
-31.3%
-4.3%
Proposal
0.8
1.1
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.7
+112.5%
+13.3%
Insolvency
3.5
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.0
3.0
-14.3%
0.0%
Rate
Vancouver
Island/
Coast
BC
Source: Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy Canada and Statistics Canada.
16
CPABC Regional Check-Up 2016
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blank
www.bccheckup.com 17
CPABC Regional Check-Up — Vancouver Island/Coast
As leaders in analyzing and validating information, CPAs are often called upon to provide independent,
fair, and objective information to assist in decision-making. It’s with this goal in mind that the Chartered
Professional Accountants of British Columbia prepares the CPABC Regional Check-Up and BC CheckUp reports each year. It is our hope that the reports will make a positive public policy contribution to
the province by stimulating debate and discussion about how to make BC a better place in which to
live, work, and invest.
The CPABC Regional Check-Up and BC Check-Up reports, as well as related information, are available
online at www.bccheckup.com.
Staff
Kerri Wilcox, Vice President, External Affairs, CPABC
Vivian Tse, Public Affairs Specialist, CPABC
Economists
Chisholm Consulting, in association with Gold Island Consulting.
The Regional Check-Up — Vancouver Island/Coast report is edited by Kerri Wilcox and Vivian Tse.
Creative layout, infographics, and graphics used in this report are done by Linda Mitsui of Profile Design
Group Inc.
Opinions expressed in the CPABC Regional Check-Up — Vancouver Island/Coast do not necessarily
reflect those of individual chartered professional accountants.
CPABC Regional Check-Up
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Vancouver, BC V6B 4N6
Tel: 604.872.7222
Fax: 604.681.1523
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18
CPABC Regional Check-Up 2016