Geography 813 – Graduate Seminar in Human-Environment Interactions A Focus on Island Ecosystems, Land Use/Land Cover Change & Dynamic and Complex Systems Models Stephen J. Walsh Department of Geography University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Fall 2014 Mondays, 3:00 – 5:30 pm; Saunders Hall - Room 204 Increasingly, policymakers and researchers are confronted with problems at multiple spatial and temporal scales, such as global climate change, land use/land cover change, international tourism and population migration, changes in ecosystem goods and services, and the introduction of new land use policies that have implications across socio-economic, ecological, and geographical domains. The interactions between coupled human-natural systems are played out through land development scenarios and land transformation activities that often create feedbacks and thresholds among people, place, and environment. Yet a lack of adequate tools and theoretical understanding across the social, natural, and spatial sciences has traditionally led researchers to focus on relatively coarse grains of analysis where aggregate data are available. But it is at the finer social, ecological, and spatial scales where geospatial information may be more appropriately collected, derived, and applied because of local decision-making about the use of the land with feedbacks to human behavior. Furthermore, even where adequate data have been collected at appropriate spatial and temporal scales, data analyses have tended to focus on either people or the environment, without suitable integration across the social and ecological domains. To reduce the geographic and thematic extent of the course, we will approach the study of human-environment interactions through a focus on Island Ecosystems, Land Use/Land Cover Change, and Dynamic & Complex Systems Models. We will also read and discuss a series of papers clustered around associated topics, including, Biocomplexity, Land Use/Land Cover Change, Islands Ecosystems & Protected Areas, Agent Based Models, Dynamic Simulation Models, and Measurement & Observation Systems for assessing people and the environment. The course will entail three short papers (~7-10 pages) and class discussions that examine theories, practices, and human-environment interactions for selected case studies or more synthetically across several case study sites. In addition, a special class project will be designed that involves the study of island ecosystems and protected areas through a study of human-environment interactions, particularly, land use/land cover change and the characterization of places and contexts using dynamic and complex systems models. Paper #1 (& presentation) is due on September 29th. Paper #2 (& presentation) is due on November 3rd Paper #3 (& presentation) is due on December 1st For centuries, island ecosystems have animated the human imagination and challenged science. Probably the most famous examples of scientific interest in islands are the impact of the Galapagos Islands on Darwin’s theory of evolution, the subsequent development of island biogeography, and the development of meta-population models to improve our understanding of the flows of genetic material in a wide range of settings. However, human migration and tourism (domestic and international) have brought profound changes to the natural environment in places like the Hawaiian and Canary Islands. With the rise in global wealth, pressure on exotic island ecosystems increases as more people seek to visit and experience these “special” places. Islands are areas of considerable vulnerability to threats imposed by human and natural forces, including, climate change, sea-level rise, hydrologic processes, invasive species, tourism, and land use/land cover change caused by the direct and indirect effects of the expanding human dimension. We will use Island Biocomplexity as the lens to synthesize human-environment relationships for island ecosystems that are distributed around the globe. Island Biocomplexity encompasses the complex interactions within and among ecological systems, the physical systems on which they depend, and the human systems with which they interact. Island Biocomplexity combines social-ecological co-evolution and adaptive resilience with a new island ecology that incorporates human impacts. Dynamic and complex systems models will be examined as our integrative and synthetic test-bed. Dynamic systems models simulate, predict, and mediate conditions given specified stocks, flows, exchange rates, and feedback loops between key parameters, whereas Agent Based Models are used to examine complex adaptive systems, critical thresholds, emergence, and feedback mechanisms linked to humanenvironment interactions and non-linear system dynamics. Island ecosystems will be selected for study through a meta-analysis of island vulnerability, defined as a perceived imminence of loss, degradation, and reduction of integrity, often through a loss of site resilience imposed by threats to conservation and social-ecological sustainability. Vulnerability is related to site exposure, physical setting, social context, ecosystem sensitivity, and the ability and opportunity of island ecosystems to adapt to change. From a diversity perspective, the following group of islands will be preliminarily considered and a sample of island ecosystems will be selected for our purposes. Hawaiian Islands (Central Pacific) Galapagos Islands (Eastern Pacific) Puerto Rico (Caribbean) American Samoa (South Pacific) Samoa (South Pacific) Guam (Western Pacific) Republic of Palau (Central Pacific) Micronesia (Western Pacific) US Virgin Islands (Caribbean) Papua New Guinea (Western Pacific) Solomon Islands (South Pacific) Fiji (South Pacific) Vanuatu (South Pacific) Tonga (South Pacific) Martinique (Caribbean) Reunion (Central Pacific) Tahiti (South Pacific) Wallis and Futuna (South Pacific) Saint Martin (Caribbean) New Caledonia (SW Pacific) Mauritius (Southwest Indian) Fraser Island (Western Pacific) Azores (East-Central Atlantic) Canary Is. (East-Central Atlantic) Madagascar (Indian) Seychelles (Indian) Our central goal is to create an approach to synthesize human-environment interactions for island ecosystems through an Island Biocomplexity framework that examines the behavioral shifts seen in social-ecological interactions that are perturbed through exogenous and endogenous dynamics, complex adaptive systems, and emergent properties. Our intent is to achieve a richer and fuller understanding of island ecosystems through a multi-site synthesis using a new conceptual framework. Further, we develop dynamic and complex systems models that are tested against a set island sites that vary by location, size, and character. We will synthesize among case studies and island sites using dynamic and complex systems models that are designed to study feedback systems through the collection of interacting elements that function together in a specified system (see Figure 1). Properties of dynamic systems include quantities that very over time, whose variability is described causally, and whose influences are contained within a closed system feedback loop. Commonly, dynamic systems models are developed through the creation of a causal graph that is augmented with information on stocks, flows, rates of change, feedback loops, and rules of behavior that are translated into a system dynamics flow graph (i.e., a boxes and arrows diagram) and then translated into programs and/or equations. Thinking in terms of “cause and effect” is not sufficient, as feedback loops are the key to understanding system dynamics as an initial cause can ripple through a chain of causation factors ultimately to “re-affect” itself. A static systems model is the representation of a system at a particular time, whereas dynamic systems models represent a system as it evolves over time. Dynamic systems models advance the understanding of feedback loops between social-ecological factors, expressed through positive and negative relationships, endogenous and exogenous dynamics, and continuous and discrete events that lead to emergent behavior and a richer understanding of the drivers of land use/land cover change. Figure 1. An example of a dynamic systems model in the Galapagos Islands, as a preliminary template to synthesize LCLUC of a global set of island ecosystems. Below are a group of topics and associated readings that are linked to the focus of the course. While not all readings will be assigned, the intent is for the class to consider the breath and diversity of readings and to add to the list of associated topics and selected readings for new (or defined) topics early in the course so that high interest topics and readings can be further identified for specific study areas, human-environment interactions, and measurement, observation, and modeling approaches. Biocomplexity An, L., Linderman, M., Qi, J., Shortridge, A., Lui, J. 2005. Exploring complexity in a humanenvironment system: an agent based spatial model for multidisciplinary and multiscale integration. Annals of the Association of American Geographers 95(1): 54-79. Crawford, T.W., Messina, J.P., Manson, S.M., O’Sullivan, D. 2005. Complexity Science, Complexity Systems and Land Use Research. Environment and Planning B 32: 857875. González, J. A., Montes, C., Rodríguez, J. and, & Tapia, W. 2008. Rethinking the Galapagos Islands as a Complex Social-Ecological System: Implications for Conservation and Management. Ecology and Society 13(2): 1-25. Manson, S.M. 2009. Complexity, Chaos and Emergence. A Companion to Environmental Geography, Blackwell Publishing 66-80. Manson, S.M. 2008. Does Scale Exist? An Epistemological Scale Continuum for Complex Human-Environment Systems. GeoForum 39: 776-788. Manson, S.M., Sun, S., Bonsal, D. 2012. Agent-Based Modeling and Complexity. Agent-Based Models of Geographical Systems, Springer Science + Business Media, 125-139. Messina, J.P., Evans, T.P., Manson, S.M., Shortridge, A.M., Deadman, P.J., Verburg, P.H. 2008. Complex Systems Models and the Management of Error and Uncertainty. Journal of Land Use Science 3(1): 11-25. Michener, W.K., Baerwald, T.J., Firth, P., Palmer, M.A., Rosenberger, J.L., Sandlin, E.A., Zimmerman, H. 2001. Defining and Unraveling Biocomplexity. Bioscience 51(12): 10181023. Parker, D.S., Manson, S.M., Janssen, M., Hoffmann, M., Deadman, P. 2003. Multi-Agent systems for the Simulation of Land Use and Land Cover Change: A Review. Annals of the Association of American Geographers 93(2): 314–337. Walsh, S.J., Malanson, G.P., Messina, J.P., Brown, D.G., Mena, C.F. 2011. Biocomplexity. In: Handbook of Biogeography (Blumler, M., MacDonald, G., Millington, A., Schickhoff, U., editors), Sage Publications: London 469-487. Wu, J., Marceau, D. 2002. Modeling Complex Ecological Systems: An Introduction. Ecological Modelling 153: 1-6. Land Use/Land Cover Change DeFries, R.S., Foley, J.A., Asner, G.P. 2004. Land Use Choices: Balancing Human Needs and Ecosystem Function. Frontiers in Ecology and Environment 2(5): 249-257. Foley, J.A., DeFries, R.S., Asner, G.P., Barford, C., Bonan, G., Carpenter, S.R., Chapin, F.S., Coe, M.T., Daily, G.C., Gibbs, H.K., Helkowski, J.H., Holloway, T., Howard, E.A., Kucharik, C.J., Monfreda, C., Patz, J.A., Prentice, I.C., Ramankutty, N., Synder, P.K. 2005. Global Consequences of Land Use. Science 309: 570-574. Grau, H.R., Aide, T.M., Zimmerman, J.K., Thomlinson, J.R., Helmer, E., Zou, X. 2003. BioScience 53(12): 1159-1168.\ Haines-Young, R. 2009. Land Use4 and Biodiversity Relationships. Land Use Policy 26: 178186. Laird, S.G, Wardell-Johnson, A. Ragusa, A.T. (2014) Exploring the Human–Environment Connection: Rurality, Ecology and Social Well-Being. Rural Society 23:2. Lu, F., Gray, C., Bilsborrow, R.E., Mena, C.F., Erlien, C.M., Bremner, J., Barbieri, A., Walsh, S.J. 2010. Contrasting Colonist and Indigenous Impacts on Amazonian Forests. Conservation Biology, Research Note, 24(3): 881-885. Mena, C.F., Barbieri, A., Walsh, S.J., Erlien, C.M., Holt, F.L., Bilsborrow, R.E. 2006. Pressure on the Cuyabeno Wildlife Reserve: Development and Land Use/Cover Change in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon. World Development 34(10): 1831-1849. Messina, J.P., Walsh, S.J., Mena, C.F., Delamater, P.L., 2006. Land Tenure and Deforestation Patterns in the Ecuadorian Amazon: Conflicts in Land Conservation in a Frontier Setting. Applied Geography 26: 113-128. Metzger, M.J., Rounsevell, M.D.A., Acosta-Michlik, L., Leemans, R., Schtoter, D., 2006. The Vulnerability of Ecosystem Services to Land Use Change. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 114: 69-85. Mooney, H., Larigauderie, A., Cesario, M., Elmquist, T., Hoegh-Gulderg, Lavorel, S., Mace, G.M., Palmer, M., Scholes, R., Yahara, T. 2009. Biodiversity, Climate Change, and Ecosystem Services. Current Opinions in Environmental Sustainability 1: 46-54. Pan, W.K.Y., S. J. Walsh, R.E. Bilsborrow, B.G. Frizzelle, C.M. Erlien, F.D. Baquero. 2004. Farm-Level Models of Spatial Patterns of Land Use and Land Cover Dynamics in the Ecuadorian Amazon. Agriculture, Ecosystems, and Environment 101: 117-134. Rindfuss, R.R., Entwisle, B., Walsh, S.J., Mena, C.F., Erlien, C.M., Gray, C.L., 2007. Frontier Land Use Change: Synthesis, Challenges, and Next Steps. Annals of the Association of American Geographers 97(4): 739-754. Rindfuss, R.R., Walsh, S.J., Turner II, B.L., Fox, J., Mishra, V., 2004. Developing a Science of Land Change: Challenges and Methodological Issues. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 101(939): 13976-13981. Turner II, B.L., Kasperson, R.E., Matson, P.A., McCarthy, J.J., Corell, R.W., Christensen, L., Eckley, N., Kasperson, J.X., Luers, A., Martello, M., Polsky, C., Pulsipher, A., Schiller, A. 2003. A Framework for Vulnerability Analysis in Sustainability Science. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 100(14): 8074-8079 Vitousek, P.M., Mooney, H.A., Lubchenco, J., Melillo, J.M. 1997. Human Domination of Earth’s Ecosystems. Science 277: 494-499. Walsh, S.J., W.F. Welsh, T.P. Evans, B. Entwisle, R.R. Rindfuss, 1999. Scale Dependent Relationships between Population and Environment in Northeastern Thailand. Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing 65(1): 97-105. Wittemyer, G., Elsen, P., Bean, W.T., Burton, A.C.O., Brashares, J.S. 2008. Accelerated Human Population Growth at Protected Area Edges, Science 321: 123-126. Islands Ecosystems & Protected Areas Cook, C.N., Carter, R.W., Hockings, M., 2014, Measuring the Accuracy of Management Effectiveness Evaluations of Protected Areas. Journal of Environmental Management 139, 164-171. Cruz, F., Carrion, V., Campbell, K.J., Lavoie, C., Donlan, C.J. 2009. Bio-Economics of LargeScale Eradiations of Ferasl Goats from Santiago Island, Galapagos. Journal of Wildlife Conservation 73(2): 191-200. Hannah, L. 2008. Protected Areas and Cliamte Change. New York Academy of Sciences 1134: 201-212. Hein, L., Metzger, M.J., Moreno, A. 2009. Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Tourism: a Case Study for Spain. Current Opinions in Environmental Sustainability 1: 170-178. Hennessy, E. and McCleary, A.L. 2011. Nature’s Eden? The Production and Effects of “Pristine” Nature in the Galapagos Islands. Island Studies Journal 6(2): 131-156. Kier, G., Kreft, H., Lee, T.M., Jetz, W., Ibisch, P.L., Nowicki, C., Mutke, J., Barthlott, W. 2009. A Global Assessment of Endemism and Species Richness across Islands and Mianland Regions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 106(23): 9322-9327. Miller, M.L., Carter, R.W., Walsh, S.J. In Review. A Conceptual Model for Studying Global Change, Tourism and the Sustainability of Iconic National Parks. The George Wright Forum, A Special Issue on Global Change and the World’s Iconic Protected Areas (P. Eagles & P.A. Taylor). Perry, J. 2011. World Heritage Hot Spots: a Global Model Identifies the 16 Natural Heritage Properties on the World Heritage List Most “at risk” from Climate Change. International Journal of Heritage Studies 17(5): 426-441. Quiroga D. 2009. Crafting Nature: the Galapagos and the Making and Unmaking of a "natural laboratory”. Journal of Political Ecology: Case Studies in History and Society 16: 123140. Rozzi, R., Massardo, F., Cruz, F., Grenier, C., Munoz, A., Mueller, E., Elbers, J. 2010. Galapagos and Cape Horn: Ecotourism or Greenwashing in Two Iconic Latin American Archipelagoes? Environmental Philosophy 7(2): 1-32. Schuhbauer, A. and Koch, V. 2013. Assessment of Recreational Fishery in the Galapagos Marine Reserve: Failures and Opportunities. Fisheries Research (8-pages). Trueman, M., Atkinson, R., Guezou, A., Wurm, P. 2010. Residence Time and HumanMediated Propagule Pressure at Work in the Alien Flora of Galapagos. Biological Invasions 12: 3949-3960. Velarde, S.J., Malhi, Y., Moran, D., Wright, J., Hussain, S. 2005. Valuing the Impacts of Climate Change on Protected Areas in Africa. Ecological Economics 53: 21-33. Walker, R., Moore, N.J., Arima, E., Perz, S., Simmons, C., Caldas, M., Vergara, D., Bohrer, C. 2009. Protecting the Amazon with Protected Areas. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 106(26): 10582-10586. Walsh, S.J., Carter, R.W., Quiroga, D., Mena, C.F. In Review. Examining the Vulnerability of Iconic National Parks through Modeling Global Change and Social and Ecological Threats. The George Wright Forum, A Special Issue on Global Change and the World’s Iconic Protected Areas (P. Eagles & P.A. Taylor). Agent-Based Models & Dynamic Simulation Models for Tourism Berland, A., Shuman, B., Manson, S.M. 2011. Simulated Importance of Dispersal, Disturbance, and Landscape History in Long-Term Ecosystem Change in the Big Woods of Minnesota. Ecosystems 14: 398-414. Casagrandi, R., Rinaldi, S. (2002). A Theoretical Approach to Tourism Sustainability. Conservation Ecology 6(1): 1-13. Entwisle, B., Malanson, G.P., Rindfuss,k R.R., Walsh, S.J., 2008. An Agent-Based Model of Household Dynamics and Land Use Change. Journal of Land Use Science 3(1): 73-93. Hernandez, J.M. and Leon, C.J. 2007. The Interactions between Natural and Physical Capitals in the Tourist Lifecycle Model. Ecological Economics 62: 184-193. Johnston, R.J. and Tyrrell, T.J. 2005. A Dynamic Model of Sustainable Tourism. Journal of Travel Research 44: 124-134. Lacitignola, D., Pertrosillo, I., Cataldi, M., Zurlini, G. 2007. Modelling Socio-Ecological TourismBased Systems for Sustainability. Ecological Modelling 206: 191-204. Malanson, G.P., Zeng, Y., Walsh, S.J., 2006. Landscape Frontiers, Geography Frontiers: Lessons to be Learned. Professional Geographer 58(4): 383-396. Malanson, G.R., Zeng, Y., Walsh, S.J., 2006. Complexity at Advancing Ecotones and Frontiers. Environment and Planning A 38: 619-632. Manson, WS.M. 2009. Simulation. Elesvier, 132-137. Mena, C.F. Walsh, S.J., Frizzelle, B.G., Malanson, G.P., 2011. Land Use Change of Household Farms in the Ecuadorian Amazon: Design and Implementation of an Agent Based Model. Applied Geography 31(1): 210-222. Miller, B.W., Breckheimer, I., McCleary, A.L., Guzman-Ramirez, L., Caplow, S.C., Walsh, S.J. 2010. Using Stylized Agent-Based Models for Population-Environment Research: A Case from the Galapagos Islands. Population & Environment 31(6): 401-426. Patterson, T., Gulden, T., Cousins, K., Kraev, E. 2004. Integrating Environmental, Social and Economic Systems: a Dynamic Model of Tourism in Dominica. Ecological Modeling 175: 121-136. Pizzitutti, F., Mena, C.F., Walsh, S.J. 2014. Modeling Tourism in the Galapagos Islands: An Agent-Based Model Approach. Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 17(1): 1-25. Rindfuss, R.R., Entwisle, B., Walsh, S.J., An, L., Badenoch, N., Brown, D.G., Deadman, P., Evans, T.P., Fox, J., Geoghegan, J., Gutmann, M., Kelly, M., Linderman, M., Liu, J., Malanson, G.P., Mena, C.F., Messina, J.P., Parker, D.C., Robinson, D., Sawangdee, Y., Verburg, P., Zhong, G., 2008. Land Use Change: Complexity and Comparisons. Journal of Land Use Science 3(1): 1-10. Stephenne, N. and Lambin, E.F. 2001. A Dynamic Simulation Model of Land Use Change in Sudan0-Sahelian Countries of Africa (SALU). Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 85: 145-161. Verburg, P.H., Veldkamp, T.A., Bouma, J. 1999. Land Use Chasnge under Conditions of High Population Pressure: the case of Java. Global Environmental Change 9: 303-312. Walsh, S.J., Malanson, G.P., Entwisle, B., Rindfuss, R.R., Mucha, P.J., Heumann, B.W., McDaniel, P.M., Frizzelle, B.G., Verdery, A.M., Williams, N., Xiaozheng, Y., Ding, D. 2013. Design of an Agent-Based Model to Examine Population-Environment Interactions in Nang Rong District, Thailand. Applied Geography 39: 183-198. Measurement & Observation Systems Blaschke, T., Hay, G.J., Kelly, M., Lang, S., Hotmann, P., Addink, E., Feitosa, R.Q., van der Meer, F., van der Werff, H., van Coillie, F., Tiede, D. 2014. ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing 87: 180-191. Brewington, L. 2013. Mapping Invasion and Eradication of feral goats in the Alecedo Region of Isabela Island, Galapagos. International Journal of Remote Sensing 34(7): 2286-2300. Carlson, K.M., Asner, G.P., Hughes, R.F., Ostertag, R., Martin, R.E. 2007. Hyperspectral Remote Sensing of Canopy Biodiversity in Hawaiian Lowland Rainforests. Ecosystems 10: 546-549. Crews, K.A. and Walsh, S.J., 2009. Remote Sensing Links to the Social Sciences. Handbook of Remote Sensing (Warner, T.A., Nellis, M.D., Foody, G.M.), Sage Publications: London 437-445. Heumann, B.W. 2011. Satellite Remote Sensing of Mangrove Forests: Recent Advances and Future Opportunities. Progress in Physical Geography 35(1): 87-108. Heumann, B.W., Walsh, S.J., Verdery, A., Entwisle, B., McDaniel, P.A., Rindfuss, R.R. 2013. Land Suitability Modeling Using a Geographic Socio-Economical Niche-Based Approach: A Case Study from Northeastern Thailand. Annals of the Association of American Geographers 103(4): 764-784. Jacobson, C., Carter, R.W., Thomsen, D.C., Smith, T.F., 2014, Monitoring and evaluation for adaptive coastal management. Ocean & Coastal Management 89, 51-57. Martinuzzi, S., Gould, W.A., Gonzalez, O.M.R. 2007. Land Development, Land Use, and Urban Sprawl in Puerto Rico Integrating Remote Sensing and Population Census Data. Landscape and Urban Planning 79: 288-297. Mena, C.F. 2008. Trajectories of Land Use and Land Cover in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon: Temporal Composition, Spatial Configuration, and Probability of Change. Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing 74(6): 737-752 Otto, R., Krusi, B.O., Kienast, F. 2007. Degradation of an Arid Coastal Landscape in Relation to Lnad Use Changes in Southern Tenerife (Canary Islands). Journal of Arid Environments 70: 527-539. Parker, D.C., Entwisle, B., Rindfuss, R.R., Vanwey, L.K., Manson, S.M., Moran, E., An, L., Evans, T.P., Linderman, M., Rizi, S.M.M., Malanson, G.P. 2008. Case Studies, CrossSite Comparisons, and the Challenge of Generalization: Comparing Agent Based Models of Land –Use Change in Frontier Regions. Journal of Land Use Science 3(1): 41-72. Walsh, S.J., McCleary, A.L., Mena, C.F., Shao, Y., Tuttle, J.P., Gonzalez, A., Atkinson, R. 2008. QuickBird and Hyperion Data Analysis of an Invasive Plant Species in the Galapagos Islands of Ecuador: Implications for Control and Land Use Management. Remote Sensing of Environment, Special Issue on Earth Observation for Biodiversity and Ecology 112: 1927-1941. Walsh, S.J., Shao, Y., Mena, C.F., McCleary, A.L. 2008. Integration of Hyperion Satellite Data and a Household Social Survey to Characterize the Causes and Consequences of Reforestation Patterns in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon. Photogrammetric Engineering & Remote Sensing 74(6): 725-735. Walsh, S.J. and Welsh, W.F., 2003. Approaches for Linking People, Place, and Environment for Human Dimensions Research. GeoCarto International 18(3): 51-61.
© Copyright 2026 Paperzz