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Influences on demand Current and future demand Various factors influence passenger transport demand: The present UK transport system faces many challenges. People have different travel needs and can select between different modes of transport. As the population grows, problems emerge, affecting many travellers. At the same time, an increasingly globalised world requires that society facilitates local, national and international travel. • Population growth means that there is a greater number of people seeking to travel. • The demographic composition of a population may change the type of transport that is in demand. Cycling, for instance, is typically more difficult for elderly people, while many young people do not hold drivers’ licenses.11 • Technological advancements cause new modes of transport to become dominant. The speed and carrying capacity of vehicles have increased through the ages. • Industrialisation has made the production of transport facilities faster and cheaper.12 • Economic growth determines how much a country can spend on transport facilities. An increasing Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has meant for a long time that the GDP per capita increased. In the UK, GDP per capita growth has consistently been accompanied by an increase in the number of cars per 1000 people.13 Cars and Buses Roads are congested across the UK. As a result, the government plans to spend £28 billion on roads by 2020 – 21.14 Of this, only £10 billion will be used to repair existing roads.15 Increased usage of major airports such as Heathrow and Gatwick will increase the pressure on nearby roads. To facilitate this, the government plans to widen the M25.16 Underground The London tube network currently transports up to 4,725 million passengers per day.17 Transport for London (TfL) has projected that 30 to 40 per cent of additional scheduled trains will be necessary to meet the demands on London’s transport system in the next two decades.18 On average, tubes carry 3.5 per cent more passengers than they are designed for.19 More tubes are thus already necessary, and this demand will only grow. Trains Table: GOV Since 1995, the number of passenger journeys has doubled to 1.6 billion in 2015. The Department of Travel (DfT) recorded an instance in which there were 1,278 passengers on a train designed to carry 738 people.20 There have been calls for investment in new and longer trains for years.21 In response, the government has presented plans to Passenger transport challenges in the UK | 2 !
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an ever greater problem if the population size does not stabilise. Therefore, the government should promote population stabilisation policies as part of its transport improvement programme. 1
http://www.localhistories.org/transport.html https://www.bclm.co.uk/media/learning/library/ks1-‐
transport-‐timeline.pdf 3
http://www.localhistories.org/transport.html 4
http://www.localhistories.org/transport.html 5
https://www.bclm.co.uk/media/learning/library/ks1-‐
transport-‐timeline.pdf 6
http://www.localhistories.org/transport.html 7
http://www.localhistories.org/transport.html 8
http://www.localhistories.org/transport.html 9
http://www.localhistories.org/transport.html 10
http://www.localhistories.org/transport.html 11
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/u ploads/attachment_data/file/260700/road-‐transport-‐
forecasts-‐2013-‐extended-‐version.pdf 12
http://www.dhahranbritish.com/history/A9_HenryF ord.htm 13
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/u ploads/attachment_data/file/260700/road-‐transport-‐
forecasts-‐2013-‐extended-‐version.pdf 14
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-‐politics-‐23080965 15
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-‐politics-‐23080965 16
https://tfl.gov.uk/corporate/about-‐tfl/the-‐case-‐for-‐
a-‐new-‐hub-‐airport 17
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-‐england-‐london-‐
31056626 18
https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/gla_ migrate_files_destination/archives/FINAL_Overcrowdi
ng_report.pdf 19
https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/gla_ migrate_files_destination/archives/FINAL_Overcrowdi
ng_report.pdf 20
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-‐
news/2014/sep/10/10-‐most-‐crowded-‐uk-‐trains 21
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-‐
news/2015/sep/09/government-‐names-‐overcrowded-‐
train-‐journeys-‐rmt 22
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-‐politics-‐23080965 23
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-‐politics-‐23080965 24
https://tfl.gov.uk/corporate/about-‐tfl/the-‐case-‐for-‐
a-‐new-‐hub-‐airport 25
https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc =s&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKE
wj7p7DclsDLAhWJSBQKHXAVAcYQFgg0MAE&url=http
%3A%2F%2Fwww.parliament.uk%2Fbriefing-‐
2
papers%2Fsn01136.pdf&usg=AFQjCNFEVD7rqyGqEQY0
rZn_5_nMVLaKLA&sig2=D_zb6MznJq5rSKrxEiMxhA 26
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/city-‐
airport-‐200m-‐expansion-‐gets-‐go-‐ahead-‐but-‐
campaigners-‐say-‐it-‐will-‐create-‐ghettos-‐and-‐misery-‐
10022363.html 27
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/city-‐
airport-‐200m-‐expansion-‐gets-‐go-‐ahead-‐but-‐
campaigners-‐say-‐it-‐will-‐create-‐ghettos-‐and-‐misery-‐
10022363.html 28
http://www.populationmatters.org/documents/co st_ population_growth.pdf 29
http://www.populationmatters.org/documents/co st_ population_growth.pdf 30
http://www.populationmatters.org/documents/co st_ population_growth.pdf 31
http://www.populationmatters.org/documents/co st_ population_growth.pdf 32
http://www.populationmatters.org/documents/co st_ population_growth.pdf 33
https://tfl.gov.uk/corporate/about-‐tfl/the-‐case-‐for-‐
a-‐new-‐hub-‐airport 34
https://tfl.gov.uk/corporate/about-‐tfl/the-‐case-‐for-‐
a-‐new-‐hub-‐airport 35
http://www.cityam.com/229722/nationwide-‐house-‐
price-‐index-‐uk-‐housing-‐supply-‐at-‐its-‐lowest-‐level-‐since-‐
1970s 36
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-‐30776306 37
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/aug/04 /brick-‐shortage-‐housebuilding-‐grows-‐fastest-‐rate-‐2003 38
http://inrix.com/press/traffic-‐congestion-‐to-‐cost-‐
the-‐uk-‐economy-‐more-‐than-‐300-‐billion-‐over-‐the-‐next-‐
16-‐years/ 39
http://www.thisisthewestcountry.co.uk/news/13599 655.Frustrated_drivers_caught_in_A38_congestion/ 40
https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/gla_ migrate_files_destination/archives/FINAL_Overcrowdi
ng_report.pdf 41
https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/gla _migrate_files_destination/archives/FINAL_Overcrowd
ing_report.pdf 42
http://orr.gov.uk/info-‐for-‐passengers/safety/on-‐
train-‐crowding 43
https://tfl.gov.uk/corporate/about-‐tfl/the-‐case-‐for-‐
a-‐new-‐hub-‐airport 44
http://www.greenlogistics.org/SiteResources/bcb99 66d-‐24d0-‐4992-‐873b-‐95c2574a4d76_Internalisation %20report%20(final).pdf Passenger transport challenges in the UK | 7 45
http://www.greenlogistics.org/SiteResources/bcb99 66d-‐24d0-‐4992-‐873b-‐95c2574a4d76_Internalisation %20report%20(final).pdf 46
https://tfl.gov.uk/corporate/about-‐tfl/the-‐case-‐for-‐
a-‐new-‐hub-‐airport 47
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/city-‐
airport-‐200m-‐expansion-‐gets-‐go-‐ahead-‐but-‐
campaigners-‐say-‐it-‐will-‐create-‐ghettos-‐and-‐misery-‐
10022363.html 48
http://www.greenlogistics.org/SiteResources/bcb99 66d-‐24d0-‐4992-‐873b-‐95c2574a4d76_Internalisation %20report%20(final).pdf 49
http://www.wildlifetrusts.org/news/2014/12/01/rep lace-‐road-‐expansion-‐greener-‐future 50
http://www.bbcwildlife.org.uk/sites/birmingham.li ve.wt.precedenthost.co.uk/files/The%20Value%20of%
20Green%20Infrastructure%20in%20Birmingham%20a
nd%20the%20Black%20Country%20-‐
%20Executive%20Summary.pdf 51
http://www.greenlogistics.org/SiteResources/bcb99 66d-‐24d0-‐4992-‐873b-‐95c2574a4d76_Internalisation %20report%20(final).pdf 52
http://www.wwf.org.uk/what_we_do/tackling_clima te_change/how_we_re_tackling_climate_change/our_
climate_work_in_the_uk/aviation_and_transport/ 53
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/u ploads/attachment_data/file/260700/road-‐transport-‐
forecasts-‐2013-‐extended-‐version.pdf 54
http://english.jr-‐
central.co.jp/company/ir/annualreport/_pdf/annualre
port2014-‐03.pdf 55
http://phys.org/news/2013-‐05-‐physics-‐green-‐city-‐
traffic-‐smoothly.html 56
http://www.copenhagenize.com/2014/08/the-‐
green-‐waves-‐of-‐copenhagen.html 57
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/heathrow-‐
expansion-‐plans-‐for-‐wildlife-‐haven-‐four-‐times-‐the-‐size-‐
of-‐hyde-‐park-‐near-‐airport-‐a3159411.html 58
http://lcc.org.uk/pages/why-‐go-‐dutch Passenger transport challenges in the UK | 8
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