Managing disaster response
through mobile
Middle East and North Africa
© GSM Association
The GSMA represents the interests of mobile operators worldwide, uniting nearly 800
operators with almost 300 companies in the broader mobile ecosystem, including
handset and device makers, software companies, equipment providers and internet
companies, as well as organisations in adjacent industry sectors. The GSMA also
produces industry-leading events such as Mobile World Congress, Mobile World
Congress Shanghai and the Mobile 360 Series conferences.
For more information, please visit the GSMA corporate website at www.gsma.com
Follow the GSMA on Twitter: @GSMA
GSMA Intelligence
GSMA Intelligence is the definitive source
of mobile operator data, analysis and
forecasts, delivering the most accurate
and complete set of industry metrics
available.
Relied on by a customer base of over 800
of the world’s leading mobile operators,
device vendors, equipment manufacturers
and financial and consultancy firms, the
data set is the most scrutinised in the
industry.
With over 30 million individual data
points (updated daily), the service
provides coverage of the performance of
all 1,400+ operators and 1,200+ MVNOs
across 4,500+ networks, 77 groups and
238 countries worldwide.
www.gsmaintelligence.com
[email protected]
The GSMA Disaster Response Programme
works with mobile network operators,
humanitarian organisations, governments,
NGOs and the broader mobile ecosystem
on a national, regional and global basis
to drive the creation and adoption of
coordinated, impactful solutions and
practices that leverage the ubiquity of the
mobile technology under the umbrella of
the Humanitarian Connectivity Charter.
The Charter represents a set of shared
principles adopted by members of the
mobile industry to support improved
access to communication and information
for those affected by crisis in order to
reduce the loss of life and to positively
contribute to humanitarian response.
www.gsma.com/mobilefordevelopment/
programmes/disaster-response
This report was authored by
Henry James, Mobile Ecosystem Specialist
This initiative is funded by the
UK Department for International
Development (DFID), and supported by
the GSMA and its members.
GSMA Intelligence Managing disaster response through mobile: Middle East and North Africa
Contents
1.Introduction���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 4
2. MENA mobile market ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 5
3. Disaster response in MENA �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 6
3.1 Mobile money in MENA������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 8
3.2 Innovative services in MENA������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 9
4.Iraq��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������11
4.1 Mobile market ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 11
4.2 Disaster profile���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 11
4.3 Mobile money snapshot����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 12
5.Yemen ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 13
5.1 Mobile market ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 13
5.2 Disaster profile��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 13
5.3 Mobile money snapshot����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 14
GSMA Intelligence Managing disaster response through mobile: Middle East and North Africa
1.
Introduction
Mobile networks and the connectivity they provide can be a lifeline for those affected
by natural disasters and other humanitarian emergencies. They are vital to facilitating
access to information and coordinating assistance within affected populations and among
governments, first responders and the international humanitarian community.
In March 2015, the GSMA launched the Humanitarian Connectivity Charter to support the
mobile industry in improving preparedness and resilience. The charter consists of a set
of shared principles adopted by key players in the mobile industry, and endorsed by key
humanitarian organisations, to support improved access to communication and information
for those affected by crisis in order to reduce the loss of life and positively contribute to
humanitarian response.
The principles of the Humanitarian Connectivity Charter are:
• to enhance coordination within and among mobile network operators before, during
and after a disaster
• to scale and standardise preparedness and response activities across the industry to
enable a more predictable response
• to strengthen partnerships between the mobile industry, government and the
humanitarian sector.
To date, over 100 MNOs operating in more than 75 countries have committed to these
principles. Charter engagement will be based in four key regions where the majority of
these signatories operate: Asia Pacific, Middle East and North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa
and Latin America.
This report is part of a series focusing on these regions. The report provides an overview
of the MENA mobile market, the disaster risk landscape and examples of the innovative
solutions being developed by the industry. As well as a regional overview, this report
focuses on two markets; Iraq and Yemen. These countries have been selected as examples
due to their disaster risk profiles.
4
GSMA Intelligence Managing disaster response through mobile: Middle East and North Africa
GSMA Intelligence
2. MENA mobile market
Population
Population coverage
2015
485m
527m
2020
113%
106%
������
2%
38%
34%
2015
2015
2020
2015
322m
2020
277m
173m �61%
2020
Mobile
broadband*
3.1%
Around 45 million new CAGR
subscribers by 2020
4G
Smartphone adoption
2015
37%
�
256m � 65%
Mobile
broadband
2015–2020
3G
Operators continue to invest in 4G network build-outs
and subscribers migrate to higher speed networks
Mobile internet subscribers
2015
77%
Majority of internet subscribers on 3G/4G
2015–2020
2020
2020
2G
Unique subscribers
Penetration rate
57%
61%
16%
50%
2020
2015
49%
60%
598m
Penetration rate
22%
2015
2020
Penetration rate
513m
90%
2020
4G
Connections Excluding M2M
2015
3G
38%
Rural
87%
2015
2015
2020
36%
49%
6.4%
CAGR
*3G and 4G
2020
2015–2020
12.2%
of connections
5
CAGR
GSMA Intelligence Managing disaster response through mobile: Middle East and North Africa
3. Disaster response in MENA
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has suffered considerable political
upheaval over the last decade. Ongoing disputes in countries such as Iraq, Yemen and
Syria have led to mass migration as civilians flee conflict zones. Of the 10 countries with
the highest number of displaced citizens in 2015, four were in the MENA region.
11.7
7.3
4.9
Syria
Colombia
Iraq
4.1
3.9
2.6
2.6
Afghanistan Sudan South Sudan Yemen
2.4
2.3
2.2
Nigeria
Somalia
DRC
Figure 1: Top 10 countries for displaced populations (million) in 2015
Source: UNHCR
The ongoing civil war in Syria led to the displacement of 11.7 million citizens in 2015, with a
further 400,000 estimated to have died since the conflict began in 2011. The invasion of Iraq
in 2003 and the resulting instability led to the displacement of 4.9 million citizens in 2015,
with estimated deaths since 2011 potentially as high as 1 million. In Sudan, the continued
civil war between the government and rebel forces led to the displacement of almost 4
million citizens in 2015. In Yemen, the ongoing civil war has led to the displacement of 2.6
million citizens, and an estimated 6,500 people have died in the conflict.
The consequences of ongoing conflicts across the MENA region are magnified by
widespread poverty, lack of basic infastructure and the limited food security experienced
in many of these countries. The Index for Risk Management (INFORM) reflects these
challenges. It identifies countries at risk from humanitarian crises and disasters that
could overwhelm national response capacity. It comprises three dimensions: hazard and
exposure, vulnerability and lack of coping capacity. Of the 15 countries considered most at
risk, five are in MENA (Yemen, Sudan, Iraq, Syria and Libya).
6
GSMA Intelligence Managing disaster response through mobile: Middle East and North Africa
Georgia
Tunisia
Azerbaijan
Turkey
Morocco
Cyprus
Syria
Lebanon
Palestine
Israel
Algeria
Armenia
Iraq
Kuwait
Libya
Bahrain
Egypt
Saudi
Arabia
Qatar
UAE
Sudan
Oman
Jordan
0.0 2.0
3.5 5.0
Yemen
6.5 10.0
Figure 2: Disaster risk by country: MENA
Source: INFORM
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
Climatological
Geophysical
Meterological
Ye
m
en
Tu
rk
ey
O
m
an
Pa
l
e
St s
a t
Sa te ine
ud of ,
iA
ra
bi
Su
a
da
n
(t
he
Sy
)
ria
Re n
pu Ara
bl b
ic
Tu
ni
si
a
Li
by
a
M
or
oc
co
Jo
rd
an
Ku
w
ai
t
Le
ba
no
n
Is
ra
el
Ira
q
G
eo
rg
ia
Eg
yp
t
C
yp
ru
s
0
A
lg
er
ia
A
rm
en
ia
A
ze
rb
ai
ja
n
Number of occurences
Natural disasters pose less of a hazard in MENA than in regions such as Asia Pacific.
According to the Global Climate Risk Index 2016, none of the 10 most at-risk countries
are in MENA. One country of note here is Sudan, which suffers annual droughts that both
exacerbate political conflict and magnify the problems faced by refugees. The drought in
2011 was considered to be one of the worst in decades, with the UN declaring a state of
famine in the region and tens of thousands believed to have died. The famine is understood
to have been an aggravating factor in the country’s political conflicts. Figure 3 shows the
frequency of natural disasters across the region.
Hydrological
Figure 3: Frequency of natural disasters in MENA
Source: EM-DAT
7
GSMA Intelligence Managing disaster response through mobile: Middle East and North Africa
3.1 Mobile money in MENA
21
live mobile money
services across 18
countries in MENA
The first mobile money
service to launch in the
region was Etisalat Mobile
Commerce in UAE, launched
by Etisalat in 2009
5.5 million
registered accounts as of
December 2015, an increase of
53% from 2014
63%
of transactions were bill payments,
while P2P transfers accounted for 47%
of total transactions value in 2015
Levels of financial access vary widely across the MENA region. In countries such as UAE
and Bahrain, more than 80% of the population have accounts with financial institutions.
This falls to less than 10% in countries such as Yemen, Egypt and Sudan. Mobile money has
the potential to help vulnerable or transient groups in MENA. Migrant workers account for
a large segment of the population in the Gulf; in the UAE they represent more than 80%
of residents. The refugee crisis also continues to grow, with 8.7 million predicted to be
internally displaced in 2016 in Syria alone. Such groups are ideally placed to benefit from
mobile money services with access to traditional financial services particularly challenging.
Regulation in the region is evolving to encourage the use of mobile money services. In
Tunisia and Morocco, for example, the new banking laws allow mobile operators to apply
for a licence to provide mobile money services directly, without relying on partnerships
with regulated financial institutions such as banks or post offices.
8
GSMA Intelligence Managing disaster response through mobile: Middle East and North Africa
3.2 Innovative services in MENA
Mobile operators have launched services across the region that enable them and their
customers to improve their preparedness and response to disasters.
Turkey
• Turkcell has implemented a series of policies aimed at supporting its subscribers
affected by earthquakes. Programmes such as Reach Me and the Earthquake
Information Service help to disseminate information in case of disaster and help
subscribers contact and locate their loved ones. For subscribers affected by
earthquakes while roaming, Turkcell identifies and locates those in affected areas and
ensures they receive free calls and SMS and that suspended accounts are reactivated.
Turkcell will also call affected subscribers to establish their wellbeing.
• Turkcell has developed a Business Continuity Management (BCM) app to aid its
employees across the Turkcell group. The app is designed to work offline and includes
tools for disaster notification, emergency contact mechanisms and a library of
processes and information for disasters. Users are notified about disasters in Turkey
and elsewhere via notifications from the Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System
(GDACS) and the National Center for Monitoring Earthquakes (NCME) in Turkey. An
emergency IVR/SMS tool can send messages to the internal emergency services, and
a call chain function allows for automated communications with specified contacts.
The app also contains a library of all Turkcell’s functional disaster plans.
• Turkcell has launched an app called Merhaba Umut (“Hello Hope”) to help facilitate
the integration of Syrian refugees living in Turkey. The app has a Turkish language
learning component as well as instant audio translation between Turkish and Arabic.
Turkcell also operates Turkey’s first bilingual operator call centre, serving customers
in both Arabic and Turkish.
Jordan
• Zain Group has instigated a programme to provide free Wi-Fi to refugees across Jordan.
The programme is run in partnership with the United Nations High Commissioner for
Refugees (UNHCR) and Facebook. By placing Wi-Fi hotspots in refugee centers, the
programme helps expand the influence, value and utility of services offered at these
locations.
Iraq
• In Iraq, several operators, including Zain Iraq, AsiaCell and Korek, have collaborated
to launch a national hotline for internally displaced Iraqi citizens. Staffed by the UN,
the call centre helps identify and respond to the most urgent needs of the displaced,
while providing a single contact point for the many disparate humanitarian relief
programmes across the country.
9
GSMA Intelligence Managing disaster response through mobile: Middle East and North Africa
Cross-border programmes
• The REFUNITE platform is designed to help refugees trace their loved ones. It is the
largest of its kind with more than 560,000 profiles in its database and is active across
the MENA region. The database, accessible to subscribers of operators that have
joined the partnership, allows displaced individuals to securely and privately identify
potential matches with missing family and friends also signed up to the programme. It
is supported by Ericsson and has partnerships with the United Nations and a number
of operators including AsiaCell, Three, MTN, Safaricom, Vodacom, Zain, Etisalat, Avea
and Smart.
• Mobile operators across the region have launched tariffs aimed specifically at refugees.
Examples include the Al Tawasol tariff launched by Touch in Lebanon in response to
the influx of Syrian refugees. The prepaid tariff includes SMS and call time to Syria in
addition to local allowances.
• Deutsche Telekom has launched a series of initiatives to help refugees from the
MENA region integrate into German society. Focusing primarily on helping refuges
find employment, the operator has launched a recruitment platform and provides
training sessions and internships. The operator is also supporting language courses
across the country for refugees keen to learn German.
10
GSMA Intelligence Managing disaster response through mobile: Middle East and North Africa
4. Iraq
4.1 Mobile market
Since the invasion of 2003, Iraq has suffered continued conflict and political instability,
making it a challenging place for mobile operators to function. As a result, the mobile
sector has struggled to develop. Subscriber penetration is currently at just 49%, with nearly
two thirds of subscribers on 2G.
Iraq currently has five active mobile operators, Asiacell (36% market share), Fastlink (2%),
Korek Telecom (22%), Mobitel (3%) and Zain (37%). All five offer 2G and 3G services but
Fastlink is the only operator to offer 4G services, limited to the Kurdistan region.
Despite investment in 3G services and population coverage of around 95%, uptake has also
been slow, with market penetration estimated at just 20%. Uptake of 4G services has been
even slower; coverage is limited to Kurdistan and market penetration is estimated at less
than 1%. Iraq has a heavily prepaid market, with only 4% of connections on contract. As a
result of the limited 3G and 4G uptake and a predominantly prepaid client base, ARPU in
Iraq currently stands at $12.76, compared to the global average of $23.30.
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
2013
2014
2015
Connections
penetration
2016
Subscriber
penetration
2017
Mobile internet
penetration
2018
2019
2020
Smartphone
adoption
Figure 4: Iraq mobile market
Source: GSMA Intelligence
Note: penetration measured as a percentage of population; smartphone adoption measured as percentage of connections
4.2 Disaster profile
Iraq has a risk rating of 7.1 according to the INFORM index, the second highest in the
region and equal to Sudan. Since 2014 internal conflict has worsened and the number of
displaced citizens has increased. Iraq now has the third largest population of internally
displaced people in the world, with 3.2 million displaced in the country since January 2014.
This is in addition to the 1 million people still displaced since the 2006–2008 conflict. The
government’s capacity to provide services to citizens is limited and has been challenged
11
GSMA Intelligence Managing disaster response through mobile: Middle East and North Africa
by the decline in oil prices and the escalating crisis. Many citizens have moved to the
Kurdistan region, which is also host to nearly 97% of the 250,500 Syrian refugees in the
country. The total population considered to be of concern by UNHCR is anticipated to rise
to 4.1 million during 2016.
Natural disasters are not a major hazard in Iraq; the country has suffered 12 natural disasters
in the past 30 years, with an average of three people dying due to natural disaster per year.1
One exception of note was a period of flooding in October 2015 which led the government
to declare a state of emergency, with an estimated 86,000 people affected.
4.3 Mobile money snapshot
There are two live mobile money services in Iraq:
88%
unbanked adult
population in 2014
2010
marked the first mobile money
service launched in Iraq,
but this was closed by the
regulator (re-launched in 2015)
• Zain Cash is offered by Iraq Wallet, which is an authorised company from the Central
Bank of Iraq. With Zain Cash, customers can have a mobile money account linked to
their SIM card, enabling them to carry out financial transactions. The service was soft
launched in January 2016, with a full rollout in February 2016.
• Asia Hawala is a mobile money service launched by Asiacell, a subsidiary of Ooredoo,
in December 2015. The service is run in conjunction with the Central Bank of Iraq and
was developed by Mahindra Comviva. Users can register with Asia Hawala and open
a mobile money account on their existing SIM cards. They can then deposit cash into
this account and use it for all their daily transactions in the form of mobile money.
Source: Support To Life
1
12
GSMA Intelligence Managing disaster response through mobile: Middle East and North Africa
5. Yemen
5.1 Mobile market
Yemen has suffered severe political unrest since 2011; as a result, investment in the mobile
sector has been limited during this period. Much of the existing telecoms infrastructure is
reported to have been damaged, though to what extent is unclear due to a lack of data.
Yemen has the lowest GDP per capita of any country in MENA, at just $1,275. It is estimated
that more than 80% of the population are in need of humanitarian aid.
Yemen currently has four active mobile operators: MTN (32% market share), Sabafon (23%),
Yemen Mobile (32%) and Y (13%). All four offer 2G services but only Yemen Mobile offers
3G services. There are currently no LTE services in Yemen. ARPU is currently at $4.91, the
lowest in MENA and significantly lower than the regional average of $23.30.
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2013
2014
2015
Connections
penetration
2016
Subscriber
penetration
2017
Mobile internet
penetration
2018
2019
2020
Smartphone
adoption
Figure 5: Yemen mobile market
Source: GSMA Intelligence
Note: penetration measured as a percentage of population; smartphone adoption measured as percentage of connections
5.2 Disaster profile
Yemen has a risk rating of 7.5 according to the INFORM Index, the highest in MENA. In
2004 a Zaidi group known as the Houthis began a campaign of terrorist actions. Fighting
culminated In January 2015 when the Houthis seized control of the presidential palace
and President Hadi’s residence forcing the mass resignation of Hadi and his ministers. The
Houthis have dissolved parliament and installed a Supreme Revolutionary Committee, while
President Hadi is in exile in Saudi Arabia. Al Qaeda forces are also present in Yemen, notably
in the southeastern city of Mukalla. Since March 2015, Saudi Arabia has been leading coalition
airstrikes against Houthi and pro-Saleh targets in Yemen in response to a request for support
from Hadi. Fighting continues across the country, which has exacerbated the humanitarian
crisis and damaged key infrastructure. Since the start of the conflict, more than 122,000
individuals have fled Yemen to neighbouring countries while 2.3 million people have been
13
GSMA Intelligence Managing disaster response through mobile: Middle East and North Africa
displaced internally. It is estimated that 80% of the overall population need humanitarian aid.
In recent years Yemen has become increasingly prone to flooding with notable problems
in 1996, 2008 and 2015. The effects of these natural disasters are amplified by the limited
infrastructure and accessibility.
5.3 Mobile money snapshot
94%
of population
unbanked in 2014
1/3
of bank branches have
closed as a result of
the ongoing war
• In December 2015, the central bank issued a new set of regulations covering e-money
and mobile banking, with support from the World Bank and international aid
organisations. The regulations provide more flexibility for mobile payment services,
though regulations require a partnership with a licensed bank.
• So far, only one institution is reported to have completed an application for a licence,
Alkuraimi Islamic Microfinance Bank, a US-based microfinance programme. However,
it is believed that Alkuraimi Islamic Microfinance Bank has suspended operations due
to the ongoing conflict.
14
GSMA Head Office
Floor 2
The Walbrook Building
25 Walbrook
London EC4N 8AF
United Kingdom
Tel: +44 (0)20 7356 0600
Fax: +44 (0)20 7356 0601