The World at 7 billion:
a World transformed
Prof Jane Falkingham
Director ESRC Centre for Population Change
University of Southampton
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Figure 1: World Population Growth Through History
12
Billions
11
2100
10
9
Old
Stone
7 Age
8
New Stone Age
Bronze
Age
Iron
Age
6
Modern
Age
Middle
Ages
2000
Future
5
4
1975
3
1950
2
1
Black Death —The Plague
1900
1800
1+ million 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D.
years B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. 1 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100 (1998).
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Figure 2: World Population Growth, in Billions
First Billion
All of Human History
Second
Third
Fourth
130 (1930)
30 (20th October 1959)
15 (27th June
1974)
Fifth
12 (21st January 1987)
Sixth
12 (5th December 1998)
Seventh
(1800)
13 (31st October 2011)
Number of years to add each billion (date reached)
Sources: First and second billion: Population Reference Bureau.
Third through seventh billion: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, 2011.
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Figure 3: World Population by region,
1950-2010
7 000 000
6 000 000
OCEANIA
5 000 000
NORTHERN AMERICA
4 000 000
LATIN AMERICA AND THE
CARIBBEAN
EUROPE
3 000 000
ASIA
2 000 000
AFRICA
1 000 000
0
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
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An increasingly urbanised world
Figure 4: Trends in Urbanization, by Region
Urban Population
79
Percent
75
67
61
53
50
42
40
37
29
26
24
16
14
World
41
Africa
Asia
1950
1975
Latin America
and the
Caribbean
More
Developed
Regions
2009
Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2009 Revision, 2010.
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Figure 5: Largest Cities Worldwide 1950-2010
Millions
1950
1980
2010
37
28
20
22
16
11
12
13
8
London
Tokyo
New
York
Mexico
City
New
York
Tokyo
Sao
Paulo
Delhi
Tokyo
Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2009 Revision, 2010.
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A healthier world
Figure 6: Trends in Life Expectancy
Life Expectancy at Birth, in Years
69
47
38
Africa
71
68
66
61
60
55
77
73
59
51
48
43
Asia
Latin America
and the
Caribbean
1950-1955
More
Developed
Regions
1970-75
World
2005-2010
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, 2011.
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Figure 7: Share of world population by level of
life expectancy 1950–2010
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2009). World Mortality
2009. Wallchart (United Nations publication, Sales No. E.09.XIII.4).
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With smaller families
Figure 8: Trends in Fertility, 1950-2010
Average number of children per woman
9
8
7
Uganda
Kenya
Egypt
India
Brazil
Republic of Korea
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
19
5
19
0-
55
19
5
19
5-
60
19
6
19
0-
65
19
6
19
5-
70
19
7
19
0-
75
19
7
19
5-
80
19
8
19
0-
85
19
8
19
5-
90
19
9
19
0-
95
19
9
20
5-
00
20
0
20
0-
05
20
0
20
5-
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, 2011.
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9
Figure 9: 10 Places With the Lowest
Total Fertility Worldwide
Average number of children per woman, 2005-2010
China, Hong Kong SAR
China, Macao SAR
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Singapore
0.99
1.02
1.18
1.25
Slovakia
1.27
Republic of Korea
1.29
Japan
1.32
Poland
1.32
Malta
1.33
Romania
1.33
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, 2011.
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The next billion(s)?
8 billion
15 June 2025
9 billion
18 February 2043
10 billion
18 June 2083
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Figure 10: Estimated and projected world population
according to different variants, 1950-2100 (billions)
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York
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The Classic Stages of Demographic
Transition
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Stage 4
Birth rate
Natural
increase
Death rate
Time
Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths.
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To Slow Population Growth,
Developing Countries’ Fertility Decline Must Be Rapid.
Average Lifetime Births per Woman: 1800-2007
Sources: (United States) Ansley Coale and Melvin Zelnik (1963); and National Center for Health Statistics. (Bangladesh) United Nations;
Demographic and Health Surveys; and other surveys
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Better human development, lower fertility?
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Source: Myrskylä M, Kohler HP & Billari FC. (2009) Advancement in development reverses fertility decline. Nature 460, 741-743
The key challenge is how fast fertility in Africa falls
Fig 11: Countries and areas classified by level of net
reproduction rate, 2010
High fertility
Intermediate fertility
Low fertility
Note: The boundaries shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.
Source: UN 2010
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Another challenge is to maximise the benefits of the
demographic dividend
Figure 12: Population age 15-24 by major regions (millions)
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York
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Is it all so unprecedented …. ?
Leave you with alternative views on
population growth
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Graph A 9000BC - AD2000 (11,000 years)
• large population explosion beginning after the
Industrial Revolution
• emphasises the unique nature of recent
population growth sense of crisis?
Graph B 1750-2000 (250 years)
• recent dramatic changes have been produced
by relatively small (but accelerating) growth
rates
• growth rates have begun to decline in the last
50 years
• managed population growth is possible?
Graph C 1 million BC - AD2000 (over 1 million
years)
• first curve - supportable by hunting and
gathering
• second curve - adoption of animal husbandry
• third curve - industrial revolution - on a
logarithmic scale it is no more rapid or
unusual than the earlier growth curves
• likelihood of an eventual equilibrium between
population and resources??
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The ESRC Centre for Population Change
“Improving our understanding of the drivers &
consequences of population change to better
inform policy & planning”
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