Techneau,
September 2007
GLOBAL TRENDS AFFECTING THE WATER CYCLE
Winds of change in the world of water
Techneau,
September 2007
GLOBAL TRENDS AFFECTING THE WATER CYCLE
Winds of change in the world of water
© 2007 TECHNEAU
TECHNEAU is an Integrated Project Funded by the European Commission under the Sixth Framework
Programme, Sustainable Development, Global Change and Ecosystems Thematic Priority Area
(contractnumber 018320). All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a database
or retrieval system, or published, in any form or in any way, electronically, mechanically, by print,
photoprint, microfilm or any other means without prior written permission from the publisher
Colophon
Title
GLOBAL TRENDS AFFECTING THE WATER CYCLE
Winds of change in the world of water
Author(s)
Andrew Segrave (Kiwa Water Research),
Wouter Pronk (EAWAG), Toine Ramaker (Kiwa Water Research), Steffen Zuleeg (EAWAG)
Quality Assurance
Rivka Kfir (WRC, South Africa)
Jacques Leenen (Stowa, Nl)
Robert C. Renner (AwwaRF, USA)
Frans Schulting (GWRC)
Theo van den Hoven (Kiwa Water Research)
Ross Young (WSSA, Australia)
TECHNEAU ‘Rethink the System’ Team
Alegre, H. (LNEC), Chenoweth, J. (Surrey University), Fife-Schaw, C. (Surrey University),
Hochstrat, R. (RWTH Aachen), Juhna, T. (Riga Technical University), Kelay, T. (Surrey
University), Lindhe, A. (Chalmers University), Offringa, G. (Water Research Commission),
Petterson, T. (Chalmers University), Pronk, W. (EAWAG), Ramaker, T. (Kiwa Water
Research), Rosén, L. (Chalmers University), Segrave, A.J. (Kiwa Water Research), Swartz,
C.D. (Swartz Water Utilisation Engineers), van Ellen, W. (Aguaflow), Zuleeg, S. (EAWAG),
Zwolsman, G. (Kiwa Water Research)
TECHNEAU Deliverable number
D.1.1.7
TECHNEAU
TECHNEAU is an Integrated Project funded by the European Commission under the Sixth
Framework Programme, Sustainable Development, Global Change and Ecosystems
Thematic Priority Area (contract number 018320). The research program focuses on creating
technical tools, both tangible and conceptual, to help the water sector prepare for the
opportunities and threats of the future (www.techneau.eu ).
This report is:
PU = Public
Executive Summary
Introduction: Why this report?
TECHNEAU is a European research program that
focuses on creating technical tools, both tangible
and conceptual, to help the water sector prepare
for the opportunities and threats of the future. The
scope ranges from source to tap. Designing
appropriate tools requires a vision for the future
and an understanding of the potential
opportunities and threats.
Researchers from around the globe have examined
and defined region specific trends. This synopsis
brings together the findings common to their
separate studies. The intention is to provide a
quick-read handbook for ten global trends that are
likely to shape the water sector over the next 20
years. Above all, this study provides resources for
enabling players in the water sector to plan
adaptive strategies. It will serve as input for the
research agendas of both TECHNEAU and the
Global Water Research Coalition (GWRC).
Context: World population and water stress.
The world population is currently growing at a
rate of 1,167% (about 80 million extra people per
year for the next 10 years). Half of the world’s
populace currently lack access to safe drinking
water, while two thirds live without adequate
sanitation. This percentage is sure to grow if we
don’t instigate immense interventions
immediately. Drinking water suppliers must
increasingly compete for resources with agriculture (e.g. food), industry (e.g.
mining), and ecological systems. This dynamic is not in balance. The ten main trends
must be viewed in this global context.
Importance: These trends will affect you!
All of the trends examined here are expected to have widespread, significant effects
on the world of water. Specific opportunities and threats are region specific, but an
understanding of the trends and their driving forces is universally valuable:
Think global, act local.
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Results: Seaplanes at Amsterdam Airport, cloud seeding in South Africa
Each of the trends handled in this synopsis is like a major supporting thread being
woven in the carpet of circumstances that will define the water sector in the future.
Even so, a diverse range of factors ultimately determine the local conditions of the
future. The following ten trends are expected to affect the water sector worldwide:
North America
South America
Asia
Europe
Africa
Australia/Oceania
Antarctica
D = Drinking Water
U = Urban Drainage
W = Wastewater Treatment
R = Re-Use
Most impact
Ten Major Trends
Least impact
Climate Change
DUWR
DUWR
DUWR
DUWR
DUWR
DUWR
Urbanisation
DUWR
DUWR
DUWR
DUWR
DUWR
DUWR
Emerging Technologies
DUWR
DUWR
DUWR
DUWR
DUWR
DUWR
Ageing infrastructure
DU
DU
DU
DU
DU
DU
Globalisation
DUWR
DUWR
DUWR
DUWR
DUWR
DUWR
Consumer involvement
DUWR
DUWR
DUWR
DUWR
DUWR
DUWR
Emerging pollutants
DUWR
DUWR
DUWR
DUWR
DUWR
DUWR
Energy use and costs
DUWR
DUWR
DUWR
DUWR
DUWR
DUWR
The efficiency driven water sector
DUWR
DUWR
DUWR
DUWR
DUWR
DUWR
More bottled water
D
D
D
D
D
D
Figure 1: The Ten Major Trends were ranked by the authors based on personal opinion. You are invited to rank
these trends for your region and submit your opinion to [email protected].
A greyscale version of this table is included in Appendix 1 for printing.
Results: Tools for acting locally
Now that these common trends have been identified it is up to individual players in
the water sector to determine what the impacts mean for them:
Business as usual:
Evolution:
Revolution:
no specific interventions are needed
gradual adjustment required (threats and opportunities)
alternatives are immediately necessary
After the potential of a trend to cause change has been assessed then adaptive
strategies can be designed. Interventions can be made for different purposes:
Mitigation:
Adaptation:
Resistance:
counteract the trend by lessening its driving forces
change to fit new circumstances
protect conventional practices and technologies
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Climate change can be used to exemplify this method of classification. This trend is
likely to exacerbate droughts in arid regions like the Mediterranean area and
Australia. There is little room for resistance, so revolutionary interventions may be
necessary. Adaptive measures could involve alternative crop choice for agriculture
and improved efficiency for industry and household use. Reduction in CO2 emissions
and reforestation can be classified as mitigation.
Results: We want to understand the risks
Researchers in most countries signalled the rise of a
more risk oriented society, which is also a common
thread that connects the ten major trends. Risk
assessment, communication, and prioritisation of
response efforts are likely to play an increasingly
important role in the future. The development of risk
assessment and management schemes, like the IWA
Bonn Charter and the World Health Organisation’s
Water Safety Plans, signifies recognition of this within
the water sector. Key reasons for the water sector’s
risk based view of the future include:
−
Diversified palette (e.g. nano-materials, hormones, cosmetics)
−
Improved lab analysis techniques (lower detection limits)
−
Increased competition for water sources (e.g. ecological systems, agriculture)
−
Greater expectations from consumers and a more informed community
The ten global trends also share a risk focus. Risks are both internal and external to
the water sector. External risks include terrorism as well as more slowly emerging
threats like pollutants and climate change. Climate Change, for example, is expected
to worsen droughts, strengthen flooding rivers, overflow urban drainage systems,
boost salt water intrusion and sea level rise, and alter quality conditions by
increasing temperatures in pipelines. Urbanisation, on the other hand, is likely to
augment water demand issues with stress in urbanised areas and rural overcapacity.
Internal risks, such as treatment facility and distribution network failures, are also
increasingly prevalent. ‘Ageing infrastructure’ and ‘Emerging pollutants’ are key
trends here. Public awareness and education is key in determining ‘tolerable’ risk
levels. For example, public acceptance of pesticides or medical pollutants is very low,
no matter the actual risk level from a scientific perspective.
Results: debate about water rights
Conflicts over drinking water are another major risk to water
supplies in many parts of the world. In 2000, for example,
Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan cut off the water to Kazakhstan
as a result of non-payment of debt and because coal had not
been delivered. Water stress in interregional river basins and
areas with limited resources, such as in the sub-Saharan area,
Israel and western USA, is likely to worsen in the future and
aggravate conflicts. The Murray-Darling Basin, Australia’s
most significant agricultural area, is also stricken by drought
and inter-state tensions are rising.
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Preface
‘Winds of change in the world of water’ is a synopsis report on ten global trends that will affect the use
of water worldwide over the next twenty years.
The EU project TECHNEAU aims to create tools,
methods, and technologies to overcome impending
challenges and take advantage of possible
opportunities for the water sector worldwide. The
core objective is to ensure the supply of safe
drinking water into the future.
In Work Area ‘Rethink the system’ of TECHNEAU
trends and their driving forces were identified.
These trends were comprehensively described and
analysed by each of the TECHNEAU partners for
their individual countries or regions. Potential
challenges, opportunities, and necessities were
then defined. Specific concrete impacts and
implications should thus be sought in the reports
on that research.
This report highlights the common threads in the
country or region specific findings. The aim of this
synopsis is to provide an easy access guide to ten
global trends that are expected to affect the water
cycle over the next 20 years. Although initially
focused on water supply, the study covers
sanitation, urban drainage, and waste water
treatment aspects as well. Input and advice was provided based on discussions in
Global Water Research Coalition meetings.
Trends were selected using the following criteria, with emphasis on the first:
−
Maximum potential to influence the water sector within 20 years (2026)
−
High degree of uncertainty making planning difficult and insights valuable
The temporal scale is defined as 20 years into the future (2026). This scope was
selected to maximise accuracy while allowing for the estimated time required for
implementation of any adaptive strategies that are developed.
The world population is currently growing at a rate of 1,167% (about 80 million extra
people per year for the next 10 years). Half of the world’s populace currently lack
access to safe drinking water, while two thirds live without adequate sanitation. This
percentage is sure to grow if we don’t instigate immense interventions immediately.
Drinking water suppliers must increasingly compete for resources with agriculture
(e.g. food), industry (e.g. mining), and ecological systems. This dynamic is not in
balance. The ten main trends must be viewed in this global context.
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Contents
Winds of change in the world of water
10
Climate Change
11
Urbanisation
14
Globalisation
16
Emerging pollutants
19
Energy Use and Costs
22
Ageing infrastructure
25
Community involvement & consumer intelligence
27
Emerging Technologies
30
More bottled water
35
The efficiency driven water sector
37
Conclusions
40
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Winds of change in the world of water
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts
the sails.” William Arthur Ward (1921 – 1994).
In paving the way to a sustainable future,
securing a reliable supply of safe water is a
vital cornerstone.
But everything changes continuously constantly creating new chances and threats.
The supply systems in many countries may
need to undergo considerable changes in the
(near) future to ensure their continuation.
Adaptive strategies (preparedness) can play an
important role in efficiently solving impending
problems and exploiting emerging
opportunities optimally.
Reliable adaptive strategies are based on sound analysis of current trends and expert
forecasts. Research has been completed to this end for the water sector in countries
involved in TECHNEAU. Partners in these countries characterised their region by
researching social, economic, political, technical, ecological, and demographic
aspects. Horizon scanning and trend analysis was then completed to make foresights.
This is a synopsis of the results.
The information presented in this report is key
to supporting the water sector in preparing for
the future. The next step is to develop
adaptive strategies for potential challenges
and opportunities.
In a later phase, these adaptive strategies will
be tested in concrete practical cases as a means
of verification. The results will then be used to
fine-tune the strategies.
An overview of ten global trends that are
likely to shape the water sector over the next
20 years follows.
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Climate Change
D = Drinking Water
U = Urban Drainage
W = Wastewater Treatment
R = Re-Use
Most impact
DUWR
Least impact
DUWR
DUWR
DUWR
DUWR
DUWR
Some countries currently enjoy ample fresh water
resources (e.g. Scandinavia, Baltic region), whereas
others suffer periodic or chronic shortages (e.g.
Mediterranean area, Australia, and parts of the USA).
Water availability is essentially dependant on
geographical location and climate, while the global
climate is changing rapidly. This change has been
amplified and accelerated by anthropogenically
increased atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations
from, for example, combustion and deforestation.
Positive feedback-loops, such as albedo decline and
methane release, further augment these driving forces.
Climate change is expected to cause amplification of
extreme hydrological circumstances: prolonged, hotter
dry periods and intensification of precipitation and
flood events. These extreme events are also likely to
recur more frequently. The Western Cape province in
South Africa recently experienced such effects as major
floods occurred after a period of severe drought.
Besides altered fresh water conditions,
sea level rise is also expected to
continue. All of these changes will have
considerable consequences for both the
quantity and the quality of the raw
water resources, as well as for demand
patterns. Strongly varying flood
conditions will also significantly
influence the design and operation of
urban drainage systems. The operation
of wastewater treatment systems, along
with the quality of the receiving waters,
will also be affected. Increased infiltration and more frequent sewer overflows due to
more regular storm events must be considered in the design of wastewater systems.
Flooding of (un)treated wastewater and sewerage systems can also affect the biotic
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life cycle, causing “higher possibility of out-breaks of water borne diseases (such as
cryptosporidium presence).” 1
The likelihood of toxic cyanobacterial blooms
occurring in source water can be heightened
by warmer temperatures. Besides which,
warm water is generally seen as less inviting
for consumption. Water temperature problems
in, for example, Australia’s aboveground
pipelines will increase with rising
temperatures. Altered precipitation patterns
and increased evapotranspiration are
examples of factors that will have a direct
impact on water resources. On the other hand,
modified risk of Legionella outbreak due to
warmer average temperatures in pipelines and
water installations could be considered an
indirect effect.
During dry periods, when discharge decreases, residence times in some sources
increase and oxygen levels decrease. This means that some compounds (e.g.
sewerage matter) can take longer to break down and concentrations can increase.
Such effects could be especially significant for southern European countries like
Portugal and Spain, where surface water is the primary resource and warmer, drier
conditions are expected. Besides this, basic quantity shortages will also become worse
in semi-arid and arid regions like Africa and Australia. Conversely, systems are
flushed clean by events of peak discharge. This exemplifies the dependence of raw
water quality on quantity dynamics. As mountain glaciers melt (The Kilimanjaro
Glacier is one tragic example), and the proportion of precipitation that falls as snow
decreases, discharge patterns of rivers will also be drastically altered. Floods and
landslides may result, which is an important issue for alpine countries like
Switzerland, and thus downstream countries.
The climate is definitely changing, but
predicting the degree of change over a specific
time for a particular location is obviously
complex. Future conditions have been forecast
by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC), and progressively translated
into more localised circumstances. The Royal
Dutch Meteorological Institute (KNMI), for
instance, has developed four future climate
scenarios. The massive inertia and complexity of
the global climate system has hindered the
1
EU Integrated Project. Global Change and Ecosystems. Milestone: “Inventory of Important Global
Change Pressures on Urban Water Systems in the City of the Future” SWITCH 2006.
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definition of explicit, concrete effects to date. Lag time between, for example, CO2
emission and temperature rise increases the risks by delaying the consequences of
any intervention: our short-term future is already determined to some extent.
Increasing demand worldwide and the substantial costs (time and money) of
implementing adaptive measures will exacerbate effects. Poor communities in arid
areas are thus especially vulnerable. The impacts of climate change obviously depend
on the baseline condition of the water supply system (capital) and the ability to adapt
(resilience). Inaction will amplify these impacts.
Interventions for adapting include
efficiency incentives (at the tap) and
integrated, cross-sectoral water resource
management (at the source). As emission
standards become stricter, for instance,
waste water may become a more viable
source of drinking water. There are also
various opportunities for cooperation with
the energy sector in this regard.
Technological improvements to water
supply infrastructure can play a key role in
improving efficiency and accounting for
variance (e.g. peak shaving).
Even so, if we hedge our bets on technical quick fixes, rather than holistic policy
based solutions, the problem will remain. Climate change has many indirect effects.
In hot countries such as Australia, for example, the scorching summers are forcing
more and more people to install air conditioners. Where there is low humidity,
evaporative air conditioners are often installed and they can increase water
consumption. This illustrates the need for a holistic problem solving approach.
Water supply companies are significant
stakeholders when it comes to climate
change, and should demand action from
their governments. Various mitigation
interventions, such as conversion to local,
renewable energy sources, are also
available to water supply companies.
Location specific research to determine
future quality and quantity threats and
opportunities is vital. As regards
governmental policies, agriculture,
industry, and urban planning strategies are
likely to be instrumental. Sustainable
development based on full life-cycle
analysis is key.
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Urbanisation
D = Drinking Water
U = Urban Drainage
W = Wastewater Treatment
R = Re-Use
Most impact
DUWR
DUWR
Least impact
DUWR
DUWR
DUWR
DUWR
The populations of mega-cities such as Delhi
and Mexico-city are exploding, while nearly
every city worldwide is growing. Rural
areas, on the other hand, are being
progressively abandoned. This trend is
generally caused by the concentration of
economic activities in and around cities.
Declining activity in rural areas (e.g.
agriculture in Central Europe) augments this
driving force. In some countries (e.g. subSaharan Africa) overall population growth is
also a factor, but this is not a universal cause
of urbanisation. In most Western and
Central European countries, for example, the autochthonic population is decreasing.
Nonetheless, global urbanisation must be seen in the context of vigorous growth of
the world’s population. Immigration currently determines the dynamics (net growth
or decline) of many West European populations. Immigrants also tend to be drawn to
big cities for work. This occurs both within and between countries. Government
policy is a key driver in this regard.
Internal demographic changes, like the retirement of the baby boomers, also
influence urbanisation. Life expectancy in most industrialised countries is increasing,
which further augments the elderly population over the short and medium term.
When elderly partners lose their spouses, young people delay or reject marriage, and
divorce rates grow then the number of single person households increases. In
Australia, for example, the fastest growing household sector is single person
households. These households have higher per capita water consumption as
economies of scale are lost.
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On the whole, urbanisation and population
growth will cause severe water stress
worldwide. In the struggle to meet demand we
will be forced to resort to more expensive (e.g.
distant, dirty) sources. The social, economic,
political, technological and ecological effects for
the majority of the world’s population will be
severe and extensive. The challenge is to design
holistic, sustainable solutions and fitting
technologies to cope with this major threat. Of
the countries surveyed, projected population
growth is most pronounced in sub-Saharan
Africa. The total population in 2025 is expected to be double that of 1995. What's
more, 300 percent population growth is probable for urban areas over the same
period. Most people living in these urban areas lack access to safe drinking water.
Efforts to meet the Millennium Development Goals will be seriously challenged by
further urbanisation.
Urbanisation directly affects the entire water chain. Water distribution systems are
already being affected. Depopulation of rural areas in various Eastern European
countries, for example, has dramatically decreased demand. This has lead to serious
overcapacity, which in turn affects the supply systems for these regions. One
common consequence is increased biofilm formation. Similar effects of overcapacity
and low flows might occur in sewerage systems, leading to risks for public health
and less efficient wastewater
treatment. Overdue renovations
augment the problem and diminishing
economic income from reduced water
sales limits finances for proper
maintenance. Ironically, reduced per
capita consumption, i.e. increased
efficiency, worsens overcapacity
problems. Ageing populations are also
more susceptible to diseases and
require better water quality. All of
these circumstances could lead to
health issues, all stemming from
urbanisation.
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Globalisation
D = Drinking Water
U = Urban Drainage
W = Wastewater Treatment
R = Re-Use
Most impact
DUWR
DUWR
Least impact
DUWR
DUWR
DUWR
DUWR
Globalisation is a well-known term
and trend that has diverse
connotations and ramifications in
different contexts. The various
types and degrees of possible
impacts are echoed in a wide range
of definitions and discussion
points. The common trait is
increasing interaction,
interdependence, integration, and
similarity of individuals and
groups at disparate locations. The
European Union, WTO, and OPEC
are classic organisational upshots.
Some argue that economic success achieved through globalisation will serve to
enhance all aspects of life, while others believe that globalisation involves the
exploitation of ‘everything else’ for selfish economic ends. Globalisation is well
established, but there is much uncertainty associated with this trend; both in the path
it will take and the eventual impacts. Ideological conflicts and increased income
disparity could, for instance, amplify the trend towards more international terrorism.
The ‘think big, act local’ rule of thumb often applies. International standards (e.g.
WHO, EU, EPA) will become a leading influence in regional practices. The recent
debate about limits for drinking water hardness subsequent to desalination and
softening exemplifies this development. The effects will be location dependant e.g.
international regulations may be above or below the various national norms and thus
demand different interventions.
Easy and cheap transport and communications technologies create an environment
conducive to globalisation. The world is “smaller” than ever before. Economic
incentives, like cheap labour and new markets, are key motives for taking advantage
of this effectively shrunken time and space. Cross-border mergers and acquisitions
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have become an increasingly important means of entering foreign markets since the
mid-1980s 2. The international activities of big multi-utilities exemplify this for the
water sector. Nonetheless, many factors could counteract further globalisation:
−
−
−
−
−
Socio-cultural or religious based clashes
and irresolvable differences
Conflicts around shared and limited
resources (e.g. water shortages in Africa)
Political trade barriers (e.g. EU against
Chinese shoes and Russia against meat,
vegetables and fruit from the EU.) and
protectionism (e.g. Agricultural
protectionism and bilateral agreements
between the US and Australia
disadvantages developing countries)
Unsafe cyberspace and ICT issues
Depletion of energy and resources (e.g.
transport costs rise)
Globalisation is also driven by public demand. If the majority retaliate against the
rich corporate world by boycotting multinationals in favour of local companies, for
example, then further globalisation will be limited. This is the aim of the Peoples'
Global Action (PGA). All the same, globalisation is a well developed trend that is
expected to continue.
Emerging markets can bring both opportunities and
threats. The Dutch Government’s response to the
Katrina disaster in New Orleans demonstrates
recognition of an opportunity: A delegation of
professionals visited the US to promote their expertise.
The issue of (partial) privatisation of utilities will
almost certainly be revisited, recognising the fact that
international investment can be double sided. For
example, Bucharest’s water supply company is
controlled by a multinational. This private municipal
project has successfully built capacity in local staff by
introducing international management practices and
developing operational expertise. Applying the
principals of full cost recovery has, however, pushed
drinking water prices up from 0.16 EUR/m³ to 0.25
EUR/m³ since the acquisition (2001-2004).
The tendency of “the rich getting richer” can bee seen as a risk, as multinational
giants often snatch up the best opportunities. Expansion of technological innovation
and improvements in productivity can also result, however, as these giants bring
much business experience and financial influx. Coca Cola, General Electric, and
2
International Labour Organisation, 2006, http://www.itcilo.it/
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Siemens, for example, will become more active in the water sector. In light of this,
care must be taken to prevent cultural assimilation and export of artificial wants
while encouraging investment and collaboration. To this end, on the 20th of October
2005, the Unesco General Conference adopted the Convention on the Protection and
Promotion of the Diversity of Cultural Expressions (CCD). In Africa, for instance,
many people view water as a basic human right that should be supplied free of
charge. Globalisation could transform how people view water as a resource.
Globalisation makes worldwide
recognition of intellectual property
(e.g. copyright laws and patents)
increasingly important. Companies
should be aware of chances to profit
from patents internationally, as well as
the risks associated with unpatented or
regionally patented intellectual
property. More outsourcing and offshoring is expected, as well as
additional in-house employment of
foreigners. Considering the sheer size
of the Asian markets, sustainable
management practices will be essential
to their success. Countless
opportunities to share and sell
knowledge regarding water
management and potable water
production exist. Further globalisation
will spur more international research,
such as that coordinated by the Global
Water Research Coalition (GWRC). As regards the Millennium Development Goals,
access to safe drinking water and proper sanitation is a basic human right and we
have a responsibility to share knowledge and tools to the deprived. Ever more
companies from the water sector are involved in such projects. Investors would be
wise to look at regions that are hydrogeologically similar, or face similar problems,
especially in dealing with emerging issues, like climate change. More efficient
problem solving and less repetition of work could result.
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Emerging pollutants
D = Drinking Water
U = Urban Drainage
W = Wastewater Treatment
R = Re-Use
Most impact
DUWR
DUWR
Least impact
DUWR
DUWR
DUWR
DUWR
Recycling water is increasingly common, which
makes understanding emerging pollutants more
important than ever - particularly when recycled
water is used to supplement drinking water
supplies. Improvements in waste water treatment
over recent decades have had an obvious influence
on surface water quality. Most improvements have
been in eutrophication and macro-pollutants such
as BOD, nitrate and phosphate. The focus has also
shifted to include prevention and control at the
source. Urine separation at pilot areas in Germany,
Switzerland, Sweden, the Netherlands, and Japan
is a typical example. In the meantime, however, the
amount of chemicals used in industry, agriculture
and households has increased tremendously.
Chemicals introduced to the market after 1981
(more than 3800 in the EU) are termed "new"
chemicals. There are more than 100,000 registered
chemicals in the EU alone, of which 30,000 to
70,000 are in daily use. 3 Many of these are present
in the aquatic environment and can influence
drinking water quality. Examples are pesticides,
solvents, and pharmaceutical residues. The EU regulatory framework for the
Registration, Evaluation and Authorisation of Chemicals (REACH), which came into
force on the 1st of June 2007, aims to tackle this issue. On a global scale the World
Health Organisation has guidelines, but these are not legally binding.
3
Science, 2006, Vol. 313, p. 1072
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Some chemicals pose environmental and
toxicological threats, especially when they
don’t biodegrade and thus accumulate in the
environment (e.g. flame retardants). Such
chemicals can obviously affect the quality of
water resources and hence drinking water
quality. For example, various
pharmaceuticals, hormones, and X-Ray
contrast agents have been detected in
drinking water (e.g. Carbamazepine,
Ibuprofen, and Sulfamethoxazole). Other
trends, like the ageing populace, are
expected to increase the amount of these
chemicals in the environment. Regulatory
bodies are adapting to account for this trend. In the European Water Framework
Directive, for example, each country has to develop a plan to control the quality of
their resources, which includes monitoring new contaminants such as these.
Initiatives are emerging in several countries to implement preventive measures at
sources; like wastewater treatment systems in hospitals and elderly homes.
Besides chemical pollutants, new pollutants of biological origin are also emerging.
The avian flu virus is a recent example that gained a lot of attention, because it can be
transferred to humans who drink or swim in surface water inhabited by infected
birds. Such viruses are ‘natural’ whereas the fields of nano
and bio technology are increasingly overlapping and
generating fundamentally new synthetic products: Active
nanostructures have arrived. Genetically modified bacteria
and viruses, for example, present opportunities for various
industries (including the water sector e.g. bio-monitoring)
but they also pose risks. These technologies are developing
rapidly, while the consequences are mostly unidentified.
Even inactive nano particles are considered potentially toxic
and, while little conclusive research has been conducted for
the water sector, there are ever more products with nano
constituents on the market (especially in the cosmetic
industry).
Measuring instruments have become increasingly sensitive.
Furthermore, a wider rage of chemicals is being measured
that ever before. These developments can give the
impression that an ever increasing number and
concentration of chemicals are present in water. Compounds are obviously only
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found if measured, so advancements in analytical methods influence the perception
of water quality. Conclusions regarding trends in water quality must account for this.
Nonetheless, the long-term effects of exposure to small concentrations of some
emerging toxic chemicals are unknown. Detection levels may be low, but the risks
can’t be ignored.
Multi-barrier approaches to water treatment are
important in reducing the risks associated with
emerging substances. The growing amount and
types of substances require a range of removal
techniques. The inclusion of membrane
technology (such as ultrafiltration) in ever more
treatment processes illustrates this fact.
Membranes are increasingly added as a water
treatment barrier, which may turn out to be a
lucky coincidence as regards nanoparticles.
While membrane technology has become more
attractive for other reasons, some of these
technologies seem also to remove new
nanoparticles effectively.
Besides purifying water for use, the quality of
raw resources needs to be improved or
preserved, taking emerging substances into
consideration. Waste water treatment is crucial
in this process. Technologies developed for
drinking water production could be adapted for
cleaning waste water. Nonetheless, the quality
of water resources can only be partially
improved by point-source emission reduction
measures. Diffuse sources of pollution (traffic,
agriculture) are much more difficult to control and are expected to result in increased
aquatic pollution over the mid to long term, especially in developing countries.
Continued development of purification technologies is thus required. This illustrates
that a multifaceted, holistic approach is required when dealing with emerging
substances.
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Energy Use and Costs
D = Drinking Water
U = Urban Drainage
W = Wastewater Treatment
R = Re-Use
Most impact
DUWR
DUWR
Least impact
DUWR
DUWR
DUWR
DUWR
Energy demand will explode worldwide as
developing countries (e.g. India and China)
become industrialised, populations soar,
and resources dwindle. Energy
consumption worldwide is expected to rise
by 1.7 percent annually until 2030,
including a predicted energy demand
growth in China and India of 4 percent per
year (IEA). But conventional nonrenewable
resources (including nuclear) are limited.
Exploitation of renewable sources is
increasing, primarily in developed
countries, but this growth industry remains marginal relative to conventional
production. On the other hand, conventional techniques produce a major part of the
greenhouse gasses that are amplifying and accelerating climate change. The
environmental and humanitarian consequences are expected to add to arguments
against unsustainable energy production. Political conflicts over import and export
conditions could also exacerbate problems.
Energy costs constitute a significant part of operational costs for the water sector.
Between 2 and 3 percent of the world’s energy consumption is used to pump and
treat water for residential, commercial and industrial use. About 60 percent of
distribution costs and 50 percent of the operational costs of wastewater treatment are
related to energy consumption. Energy used worldwide for delivering water
(including agricultural irrigation) is around 7 percent of total world consumption
(ASE). Higher energy prices will most likely lead to increased water prices.
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Various internal factors could increase energy requirements for drinking water
production and wastewater treatment:
− More stringent thresholds, more polluted sources, and the exploitation of
alternative water resources like seawater all require advanced treatment
technologies that generally use more energy (e.g. membranes).
− Higher ecological standards for surface water will boost the application of more
energy intensive treatment technologies.
− Water stress due to climate change and urbanisation necessitates the pumping of
water over greater distances and from deeper in the ground.
− Water stress necessitates the use of more energy intensive water sources. In
Australia, for example, traditional water supply systems, involving a dam in the
hills behind a coast city where the water is largely gravity fed, were very energy
efficient (0.2Kw-hr). The new sources of water, such as desalination (4.3Kw-hr)
and recycling (2.8Kw-hr), are much more energy intensive.
− In some regions (esp. rural areas in Eastern Europe), distribution systems are
oversized. Oversized distribution systems require additional pumping for
flushing to prevent microbial growth and corrosion.
On average, about 13% of all energy
produced in EU countries is from renewable
sources. Worldwide this is about 8%. The EU
aims to raise their percentage to 21% by
2010: a goal that will be more challenging
than it seams. These averages fail to
communicate the significant discrepancies
between different regions. Renewable
energy production is concentrated in
wealthier countries that have easy access to
renewable resources. In Switzerland, for
example, 60% of the energy is provided by hydroelectric power. In contrast, despite
significant subsidies, only 7.9% of the total power consumed in Germany comes from
renewable sources. Geographic conditions, in this case the high altitude differences in
the Alps, have largely determined the viability of exploiting renewable energy
sources to date.
Energy is an issue on everyone’s agenda. The situation in the Baltic States is a typical
example. Relatively little of the energy consumed there comes from renewable
resources e.g. 0.5% and 2.8% for Estonia and Lithuania respectively. Latvia has a
higher percentage due to it use of fuel wood peat. Awareness regarding the limits of
fossil fuels is growing. A joint project is currently being discussed to prepare Latvia,
Estonia, Lithuania, and perhaps Poland for a future energy crisis. The current
proposal involves building a nuclear power station in Lithuania, but the negative
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aspects of this unsustainable energy source remain inordinate (such as the excessive
capital costs). Is there a viable alternative?
The Netherlands generates 4.7% of their energy from renewable sources, while in the
UK this amounts to 2.8%. Governments, NGO’s, and companies in these countries
are currently engaged in heated debates over how best to tackle the energy dilemma,
particularly in relation to climate change. In contrast, Norway and Iceland already
rely almost entirely on renewable energy resources (92% in Norway and 100% in
Iceland). Spain has also boosted renewable energy production to 22% with the use of
wind, solar and wave energy. These statistics illustrate that up to now a country’s
energy generation methods have depended more on the availability of natural
resources than the economic situation or government policy. Nonetheless,
government interventions are expected to play an increasingly significant role in the
future. The US government is investigating how best to manage conversion to
biofuels and a hydrogen economy. The Electricity Industry Amendment Act of 2005
in Western Australia, which comes into force in 2008, is another example. This legally
binding document defines required renewable electricity percentages for every year
with incremental increases from 6% in 2008 to 20% 2020.
According to various studies (ASE, BFE) the water supply sector has the potential to
realise energy savings of up to 50 percent. There are many opportunities for
efficiency improvements. A significant increase in energy prices is expected over the
next decennia. This will act as a driving force for change. If peak oil production is
reached an energy crisis could occur. Revolutionary changes for the water sector
would ensue. The water sector and the energy sector interact in various ways. For
example, power stations require more cooling water as demand increases. Increased
evaporation losses and surface water temperatures are obvious outcomes. The
quality and quantity of water resources may thus be influenced. On the other hand,
water supply, sewerage, and wastewater systems require electricity to operate.
Besides threats, energy shortages offer various opportunities for water sector.
There is much latent potential for cooperating to achieve win-win situations for the
energy and water sectors. Hydropower makes use of the kinetic energy water gains
when it drops in elevation. The Three Gorges Dam that spans the Yangtze River in
Hubei, China, is a modern example. Tides, waves, and ocean temperature
differentials (OTEC) are also increasingly seen as viable energy sources in, for
example, Spain. Saline water solar ponds and algae production in are alternative
means of capturing heat energy from sunlight. Besides this, osmotic energy exploits
differences in salt-concentrations (often freshwater and salt-water) to generate
pressure differences that can be transferred into energy by using a turbine and a
generator. There are various opportunities for involving the water sector in each of
these technologies. It is clear that long-term the energy demand must be satisfied by
renewable sources and there is much potential in water. The various ongoing pilot
studies to recover energy from wastewater sludge illustrate this development nicely.
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Ageing infrastructure
D = Drinking Water
U = Urban Drainage
W = Wastewater Treatment
R = Re-Use
Most impact
DU
DU
Least impact
DU
DU
DU
DU
Ageing and thus deteriorating water supply, sewerage and
urban drainage infrastructure is a mounting problem in
various countries. Estimated capital required for
rehabilitation of main urban water and sewer pipes, older
than 50 years and in 50 largest cities of the USA, exceeds $700
billion. 4 Especially for systems in poorer countries,
maintaining the system is perceived as economically unviable
on the short-term. But failure events can also be very
expensive and hard to manage, especially with sewerage
systems. Providing a sufficient drinking water quality
cheaply is increasingly difficult. This is often a direct result of
poor asset management. Water transport systems generally
have a relatively long life time (several decades), and the
necessary annual costs of maintenance and renovation are
easily postponed. Pressure on prices is a driving factor, but if
maintenance is neglected then the required investments
accumulate. Eventually the task can become insurmountable. Revolutionary
interventions are then required to bring the system back into shape.
Defective distribution water supply systems cause more frequent interruptions to
distribution and increased risks of poor water quality. Leaking sewerage and urban
drainage systems cause contamination of groundwater and soil. Corrosion and the
intrusion of polluted ambient groundwater are common threats as regards the
drinking water quality. Aged supply systems mostly come hand in hand with aged
sewerage systems. Since sewerage and drinking water systems are often in close
proximity, risks of drinking water contamination from groundwater pollution can be
higher. Rising leakage losses also result from poor maintenance. Leaks lead to higher
production capacity requirements and more expensive water for the consumer.
4
EU Integrated Project. Global Change and Ecosystems. Milestone: “Inventory of Important Global
Change Pressures on Urban Water Systems in the City of the Future” SWITCH 2006.
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Besides physical ageing, distribution systems can become outdated and unsuitable in
their capacity. Decreasing water demand, as a result of urbanisation for example, can
lead to oversized systems. This can pose risks such as water quality deterioration
from microbial pollutants due to the increased retention times in the system. Besides
being a tremendous nuisance to the public, renovation of infrastructure in urban
areas can have significant indirect negative effects on the local economy. For
example, a study performed in Amsterdam, The Netherlands, found that street
maintenance seriously reduces sales in adjacent shops.
The recommended annual investment for sustainable
rehabilitation is 1-2 % of the total infrastructure per year. This
advice is based on an average infrastructure lifetime of 50-100
years. But the practical lifespan for new construction materials
is hard to predict. It is thus hard to say if the renovation rate of
1-2% per year will apply in the future. To prevent a backlog,
causing unexpected financial pressure, the water companies
need to carry out sound asset management research and
ensure that they have the means to perform routine
maintenance. The American Water Works Association
(AWWA) concluded that “…water utilities should include
financial targets in their mission statements and have policies on
rates and financial returns that ensure ongoing financial health.”
Water loss attributable to deteriorated infrastructure differs substantially between
countries (see figure 1). In the UK , water loss due to leakages is ca. 20% (OFWAT
2004/2005), with peaks of 30-40%. In Germany and The Netherlands, with a younger
system, different design, and other operational practices, losses are only 4-5%.
Germany (1999)
Denmark 1997)
Finland (1999)
Sw eden (2000)
Spain (1999)
United Kingdom (2000)
Slovak Rep. (1999)
France (1997)
Italy (2001)
Romania (1999)
Czech Rep. (2000)
Ireland (2000)
Hungary (1995)
Slovenia (1999)
Bulgaria (1996)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
% of water s upply
Figure 1: Losses from urban water networks in European countries (Copyright EEA, Copenhagen, 2003)
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Community involvement & consumer intelligence
D = Drinking Water
U = Urban Drainage
W = Wastewater Treatment
R = Re-Use
Most impact
DUWR
DUWR
Least impact
DUWR
DUWR
DUWR
DUWR
In many parts of the world consumers lack access to safe water because water
systems don’t exist or are unsafe and/or unattractive (taste, odour and colour).
Concerns about drinking water supply are part of their daily lives. Conversely,
consumers in countries with well developed water systems tend to take their tap
water and sanitation services for granted. In these countries information about
pollutants (e.g. pesticides, endocrine disruptors, NDMA, nanostructures) in sources
and in drinking water (e.g. via the media) can cause short episodes of concern. As
ever more people become better educated and informed through newspapers, the
Internet, and NGOs (the ‘information society’), there is increasing demand for public
information and involvement. Developments in Portugal exemplify this. Concerns
about quality obviously cause public inquiry and interference, but consumers can
also demand more of water companies if other utilities (e.g. energy) provide better
service and involve their clients more. A current understanding of consumer
demands is thus imperative. In developing countries, on the other hand, lessons
learned regarding stakeholder involvement during water projects are clearly
recognised in aid delivery policy (e.g. EuropeAid’s Project Cycle management
Guidelines, 2004): “Inadequate local ownership of projects has negative implications
for sustainability of benefits”.
Public unease about the drinking water supply mostly
stems from health concerns. Health issues are of growing
interest in many parts of the world, particularly for
immunocomprised people, obese people, cancer patients
and other individuals with food-related illnesses (as well
as the elderly). Increasingly, governments recognise the
demand for (health related) information and public
participation. The European Union’s Water Framework
Directive addresses this need as well as ecological
concerns, which are also important to consumers.
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Water consumption could also be promoted as healthy: dehydration prevention;
better performance during work; and anti-obesity. In general, the public prefers more
readable and less technical information. Also, consumers want more localised
information i.e. information that is relevant to them, so that they can anticipate the
effects of construction activities, interruptions, rate increases, changes in taste and
other aesthetics, et cetera.
Consumers are generally becoming more
demanding as regards service levels. In Portugal, for
example, this is driven by the better education of
users. In many parts of the world consumers expect
water companies to perform as well as commercial
service oriented companies, such as (liberalised)
energy companies or telecom providers. Common
demands include:
−
24 hours accessibility;
−
timely service;
−
flexibility in appointments;
−
transparent bills and multiple payment options;
−
accurate and carefree metering, and
−
application of the latest proven technologies.
The growing need to inform the public (thus creating transparency) and include
them in decision making will have serious consequences for water suppliers in many
countries. Building mutual trust is vital. Many drinking water companies already
inform consumers about drinking water quality (e.g. noncompliance with
regulations) via the Internet, but a translation into health-related effects is often
lacking. The water company of Tucson Arizona applies advanced consumer
information methods, such as an online information system for water quality. Their
users are also involved in decision making regarding upgrading the water treatment
facilities via this system.
Greater openness and transparency is, however, a
double-edged sword. On one hand it can increase
ownership of decisions and problems and thus increase
trust and acceptance of decisions. On the other hand,
greater openness (e.g. revealing scientific uncertainty
regarding possible health impacts of emerging
pollutants) may serve to erode consumer trust. This is
particularly exaggerated when ‘experts’ appear to
disagree on a topic of concern. Inconsistent specialist
opinions can heighten other risks, such as citizens
demanding more information and influence or filing
complaints procedures through the courts.
Implementation of effective consumer participation is essential to avoiding litigation,
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but imprudent openness can be costly.
In terms of communication about a proposed change, timing is crucial. Informing
people about an unfamiliar issue can cause alarm; particularly if the media
exaggerate the real risks. Nonetheless, failure to inform the public about a decision
may lead to public objection and sentiments of deceit when the information leaks.
The key is to strike a balance and appear open. Externally conducted expert
benchmarking can be an effective means of creating a climate of professionalism,
transparency, and trust.
Experience has proven that public involvement in
decision making regarding significant investments, such
as centralised softening, application of new technologies
(e.g. re-use), or demand management in water stressed
areas, is easier said than done. The 1990’s saw some
spectacular failures of re-use proposals because the public
became involved in the decision-making process; either
by accident or bad timing. Customer relations are also
particularly important when communicating
interventions such as rate changes. These relationships
have proven easier to manage than those surrounding
large-scale interventions.
We can learn from these failures as well as the successes.
In Australia, for example, water supply strategies for
cities were recently developed with extensive and
sophisticated consultation processes. Large scale re-use projects have also been
successfully introduced in Singapore and in Namibia. Singapore’s NEWater re-use
project used combination of traditional forms of communication along with an
interactive and permanent visitor education centre. They succeeded in selling
drinking water produced using treated wastewater as a source, which is no easy task.
Various studies have concluded that a community that is unfamiliar with recycled
water may require even more hard-hitting publicity. Opponents, however, will act
similarly: phrases like ‘from toilet to tap’ can be devastating. Culture is a key factor.
Australians recently rejected proposals for a reuse project in a referendum, even
though they are stricken by drought. This example illustrates the dilemma of
consumer involvement.
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Emerging Technologies
D = Drinking Water
U = Urban Drainage
W = Wastewater Treatment
R = Re-Use
Most impact
DUWR
DUWR
Least impact
DUWR
DUWR
DUWR
DUWR
There is ever more overlap between nano-, bio-, info-, and cogno- technologies. This
trend is referred to as ‘NBIC convergence’. Increasing integration is likely to produce
tremendous long-term impacts: “Unifying science based on the material unity of
nature at the nanoscale provides a new foundation for knowledge, innovation, and
integration of technology” 5. Monitoring progress within each of these fields is
complex, because they are advancing at such a rapid and accelerating rate. Just think
of how swiftly the Internet and mobile telephones have become basic tools. Countless
companies worldwide are positioning themselves to exploit future growth at the
NBIC interfaces. The anticipated developments will create opportunities as well as
threats (direct and indirect) for players in the water sector. These effects are likely to
become increasingly significant within the next 20 years. New water treatment and
monitoring technologies could appear, whilst potentially harmful substances are also
likely to emerge.
As regards nanotechnology, various new devices are currently being
built from nanoscale components (10-9m) to purposely exploit
specifically different mechanical, optical, chemical or
electromagnetic properties. Nano-sized matter (especially 10 to 20
nm) often has special properties because it borders the realm of
quantum physics. To exemplify the minuteness of this scale: About
10 atoms fit in one nanometer, while a human hair is between 70,000
and 80,000 nanometers thick. Existing nano-products include: nanotransistors, nano-amplifiers, targeted drugs and chemicals, (bio)
sensors, actuators, molecular machines, light-driven molecular
motors, plasmonics, nanoscale fluidics, laser-emitting devices, and
adaptive structures. Besides the nano-structures themselves, various
synthesis and assembling techniques are being developed to
facilitate work on the nanoscale. Bio-assembling; nano-networking, modular
nanosystems; chemo-mechanical processing of molecular assemblies; and quantum5
Mihail C. Roco. 2004. “Science and Technology Integration for Increased Human Potential and Societal Outcomes”. National
Science Foundation, Arlington, Virginia, USA.
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based nano-systems are examples. Think of tiny membrane cleaning machines, or
nanotube membranes that can purify seawater.
Modern biotechnology is characterised
by the recombinant DNA technique
(GM) that was discovered in 1973. As
knowledge and precision grow,
biotechnology is increasingly seen as
‘wet’ nanotechnology. Biotechnology is
the application of scientific and
engineering principles to manipulate
biological systems, living organisms, or
components or derivatives thereof, at
the molecular level. This includes
genetic engineering, bioprocessing,
biological agents, biomechanics,
biomaterials, and biosensors etc. Nanorobotics; nano-manufacturing
processes; artificial organs; modified viruses and bacteria; regenerative medicine, and
brain-machine interfaces are examples of emerging and existing products. The
potential implications for the water sector are almost boundless. Think of genetically
modified microorganisms that have toxicity limits that match those of humans or
environmental standards: the ideal bio-monitor! On the darker side,
deliberate/accidental release of genetically modified bacteria or viruses could have
catastrophic effects on people and the environment.
As Information and Communications Technologies (ICT) become faster, smaller, and
more user friendly, they will be increasingly integrated into our everyday lives. This
trend is driven by the search for new (more detailed) knowledge, and the desire to
make life easier: automation and convenience. Devices that are integrated or can
communicate with each other don’t require and intermediary person. As regards
news, personal and participatory media may take over mass media. Dissemination of
expert knowledge will also be increasingly simple, and ICT may be used as a tool for
alleviating poverty: for example, Malaysia's approach to development “uses ICT as a
social and economic enabler” 6.
Besides communication, information technology may take all sensory measurements
in the future, including remote sensing from satellites (tele-detection). Autoanalysing systems could then translate the data input from sensors into actions that
are subsequently executed by suitable devices. A complete digital version of earth
could evolve in cyberspace: fed by and linked to incessantly increasing live
information(RFID?). This world may then be used to predict and direct the future of
6
Asian Development Bank. 2006. “The ICT Revolution: Can Asia Leapfrog Poverty Barriers?”. www.adb.org.
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the physical world, but may also be a highly efficient platform for dealings in the
present time.
The effects of any action (construction, pumping,
climate change) on water resources may thus be
modelled in advance. Think of a unified,
personalised information platform (e.g.
GoogleEarth, GoogleSketchUp, Secondlife, YouTube
and TomTom) on your PDA. A more holistic view of
the water cycle may thus develop, increasing
awareness e.g. consumers see the effects of pouring
paint down the drain. If geographic,
hydrogeological, ecological and climatological
models are integrated in one digital earth model
then every drop of fresh water could be followed
throughout the water cycle: real-time weather radar
images are already available on GoogleEarth. The
digital identity may need to become a legal entity
and human right - you can exist in more than one
place at any one time.
Industries that develop swiftly and
unchecked often collapse. The
“internet bubble” was a classic
example. There are various causes for
this phenomenon. For example, the
initial speed of technological
development and application might
exceed the ability of risk assessors to
appraise any new threats. This could
be augmented by governments that
are reliant on scientists to solve
environmental problems and thus
more facilitating than directing. As a
result, there could be major health
scares. The potential risks would then
outweigh the rewards in the eyes of
the public, and consumers might
boycott nano-and bio- engineered
products. The public already distrust
GM products. As regards ICT, ‘Back
to basic’ could be the new fashion. As
Kevin Anderson from BBC news put
it: “it’s time to switch off and slow
down”. The Slow Food revolution is a recent upshot. Technology related stress has
become a common phrase. There could be a revolt against cyberspace and the digital
world.
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The International Risk Governance Council recently (June 2006) produced a paper on
nanotechnology that describes in detail the specific risks associated with each
anticipated stage in nanotechnology development up until 2020. Passive nanoparticles could accumulate to toxic levels in the human brain and organs. Adaptive
nanostructures, on the other hand, could be self-propagating act like artificial viruses.
Besides this, there are serious
ethical dilemmas associated with
human/machine interfaces (like
implanted memory). There has
also been a lot of debate about the
possible health risks of GM food,
especially with regard to the
response of the immune system.
The WHO and IRGC are busy
developing standards for the
growing number of bio- and
nano- substances. There are
already more than 700 products in
the US that have nano
components, which have not
undergone proper health-risk tests. The biggest sources of nano-substances in Europe
are currently aerosols and cosmetics. Cosmetics are obviously found in sewerage
water. The water sector should undertake research to determine potentially
problematic emerging substances and strategies for dealing with them. The public
must also be carefully informed that the effects of nano- bio-technology
developments are being monitored. Otherwise the media could influence public
perception so that consumers lose trust - in drinking water supply for instance.
Engineered biological processes could
work with nano-robots to catalyse, ‘grow,’
and assemble complex nanostructures.
Genetically-modified foods may be
carefully developed to be safe as well as
drought and pest resistant, thus solving
food shortages. DNA, the ultimate
information storage molecule, might be
used as a platform for nano-processors and
nano-circuits to create the next generation
of computers, which could also become
intimately connected to the human brain
and body. ICT developments will make communication and information sharing
increasingly easy and advance globalisation. Extensive space exploration may be
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facilitated by new ultra-strong, ultra-light materials and powerful, sustainable energy
sources. But what will these developments mean for the water sector?
Sensors will become increasingly accurate, durable, and cheap. As a consequence
they are used to a greater extent at more points in the water supply network. Sensors
may travel with the water from the production site, to the tap, and back to the source
and communicate results with a home base in real-time. Further in the future, cheap
point-of-use water purifiers could sense the exact constituents of any raw water at a
molecular level and treat the water accordingly; determining the water’s exact
molecular content. That’s quality!
At this stage water utilities should investigate technical possibilities for integrating
sensor and ICT technology with existing infrastructure such as membranes, meters,
and taps etc. As regards treatment, desalination systems that use carbon nano- tubes
could make seawater a viable source of drinking water. New membranes, developed
by researchers at Lawrence Livermore National
Laboratory (LLNL), are reported to have the
potential to reduce desalination costs by 75%
compared to classic reverse osmosis methods.
And distribution? Numerous applications for
water-attracting (superhydrophilic) and waterrepelling (superhydrophobic) nano-polymers are
being explored. This new material could be used
for harvesting fog, or pipelines that create
significantly less water resistance. These are
examples of direct positive affects. Threats are
primarily indirect and related to emerging
substances.
The indirect positive affects of emerging technologies are too numerous to name and
various examples have been handled in the analysis of other trends. For example,
paint that generates electricity from solar energy could solve the energy crisis. If nano
fabrication processes become the norm then far less matter is required and pollution
will decrease substantially. Nano manufacturing may also be possible at room
temperature and without all of the extra energy and chemical substances that are
currently required. Water purification costs could thus be diminished as the raw
water quality improves.
Researchers developing novel ICT technologies for the water sector could find
valuable partners from other utilities, such as the energy sector. For nano and bio
technological development, specialist partners may be sought within in the medical
and defense sectors. Interdisciplinary cooperation, research, and information sharing
may speed development. Collaboration often leads to new insights.
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More bottled water
D = Drinking Water
U = Urban Drainage
W = Wastewater Treatment
R = Re-Use
Most impact
D
Least impact
D
D
D
D
D
An increase in the use of bottled water has been observed worldwide. According to
the bottled water industry, between 1999 and 2004 the growth in global sales of
bottled water leapt from 98.4 to 151.4 billion litres per year (TECHNEAU; see also
IBWA, 2005). This trend is continuing. One driving force is the quality (e.g. taste) or
perceived quality (e.g. fear of contaminants) of tap water. This factor is more
important in countries that have a large divide between rich and poor and a deficient
supply system. In areas lacking of safe tap water,
bottled water is obvious the only safe supply option.
Socio-cultural factors play a bigger role in richer
countries. In the UK, for example, bottled water is often
seen as a lifestyle accessory (TECHNEAU). When
bottled water is bought as a lifestyle product, then the
name on the bottle is often more important than the
contents. Nonetheless, quality issues can emerge: In
Australia, where fluoride is added to the water, the
increased consumption of bottled water has resulted in
increased incidences of tooth decay in young children.
Bottled water is often associated with sport, healthy
living, and diet. Demand for bottled water has been
boosted by consumers’ growing awareness of the need
to maintain a healthy lifestyle. Bottled water is
increasingly regarded as a healthy alternative to softdrink beverages. The need for water in a low calorie
diet and maintaining general well-being has been
reinforced by ‘natural’ imagery in advertisements for
bottled water. Competition with tap water is thus primarily indirect in this regard.
In Japan, however, the Tokyo Metropolitan Government Bureau of Waterworks is
bottling and selling tap water to advertise the greatly improved quality following
significant investments in purification technologies. The bottled water has become so
popular that they are even considering privatisation and increasing the water price.
Besides this extreme example, consumers often refill a bought bottle with tap water.
This signifies that convenience is another key factor. The Dutch brand “NEAU” has
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designed a product that is tailored to consumers who buy bottled water for the
convenience: Consumers buy an empty bottle containing a leaflet
that describes the implications of bottled water use and draws
attention to water shortages worldwide. Part of the retail price is
donated to water-related development projects. The consumer uses
tap water to fill the bottle. This makes a statement about Dutch
drinking water quality and empowers the purchaser to communicate
their feelings of social responsibility and concern.
Bottled water can be 500-1000 times more expensive than tap water.
Besides the sector of the market that panders to the demands of
health conscious consumers, other bottled water producers are
marketing their water as a luxury product. These bottles have a
cleverly crafted elegant design and fashionable, classy image.
Aesthetic driven consumers, at restaurants for example, comprise the
target audience. Financial capacity and affluence obviously plays an
important role in this segment of the market.
Price is not the issue for bottle water buyers, so changes in the number of people who
can afford bottled water will affect the growth of the bottled water market. This is an
especially important factor in the developing regions of the world. On the other
hand, criticism of the bottled water industry is growing - especially in industrialised
countries. The ecological and resource (e.g. energy) costs of packaging, transport and
waste are much worse for bottled water than for tap water production. According to
the triple bottom line, bottling water is an unsustainable practice. There is also
concern about the of bottled water quality, since regulations for bottled water are less
strict than those for tap water in many countries.
The future of bottled water is uncertain. Considering the
relationship between this trend and affluence, market
growth in rapidly developing countries (e.g. Asia) seems
probable for the next 20 years. Nonetheless, a countertrend
could easily develop over the short to mid-term future (515 years); especially under influence of NGO organisations
(e.g. environmentalists). This could result in a drastic
reduction in bottled water consumption worldwide.
Public water suppliers often tend to ignore this trend,
since a relatively small percentage of the water they
provide is actually consumed (ca. 5-10%). But if the
sentiment that tap water is unsafe grows, due in part to
advertisements for bottled water, then suppliers may be
reduced to providing cheap “grey water”. Efforts to
improve water resources and treatment would thus
become at least partially obsolete. This threat justifies
targeted PR activities by water suppliers to “defend” their
position and reputation.
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The efficiency driven water sector
D = Drinking Water
U = Urban Drainage
W = Wastewater Treatment
R = Re-Use
Most impact
DUWR
DUWR
Least impact
DUWR
DUWR
DUWR
DUWR
Water companies and governments throughout the
world are facing a dilemma. In various developed
countries huge infrastructure investments are
needed, due to ageing or lacking infrastructure and
population dynamics, but there is little room for
raising prices. Likewise, water companies in
developing countries need to address the needs of
the very poor (South Africa, India, China and
Eastern Europe). Pressure on prices is even higher in
these countries. Sustainable Development requires
maximum output using minimum resources and
producing minimum waste. Water companies in
developed countries are also required to comply
with stricter legislation and lower thresholds for
contaminants (e.g. throughout Europe, USA). At the
same time, new types and concentrations (e.g. more
medicines from ageing populations) of pollutants
are being discharged into the environment. These
often require expensive new monitoring and
treatment technologies (advanced oxidation,
membranes etc.).
Besides direct price pressure, there is also increasing conflict between stakeholders
for limited water resources. Household consumption is just one use for water. Some
other trends may also increase competition. Biofuel production, for example,
consumes up to 10 times more water than for petrol. This is a growth industry due to
the looming energy crisis. Water demand for agriculture is also likely to increase with
growth of the world’s population. When competition for a resource increases so too
does its value and thus price. This is likely to augment pressure for efficiency in the
water sector.
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Keeping these trends in mind, it is expected that water tariffs will continue to
increase significantly into the future. Pinsent Masons Water Yearbook states that an
investment of $2.3 trillion will be required worldwide over the next twenty years.
This study also predicts that governments will only have the capacity to invest 25
percent of this, leaving 75 percent to come from private sources.
Governments and consumers are
basically demanding more for less from
their water utilities. This is the main
force behind the trend towards an
efficiency driven water sector. Human
rights demand huge investments in areas
lacking any infrastructure where
customers have little to spend. Water
utilities are adapting in various ways to
cope with this pressure. To demonstrate
optimum quality and efficiency,
benchmarking (e.g. IWA) has been
introduced in various countries. In the
UK it is compulsory, while water sectors in Australia, The Netherlands and Nordic
countries have begun benchmarking of their own initiative. There has also been a
significant increase in the number of (international) mergers and takeovers
worldwide over the last 20 years. This trend is expected to continue for the next 20
years. Companies are also exploring other alternatives for cutting costs. Public
private partnerships and outsourcing of specific tasks, like billing, are on the
increase. There is also a trend towards more automation of processes in billing,
treatment plants, laboratories and online metering. Metering is expected to become
universal practice, also in the UK and developing countries. Privatisation and
liberalisation have also been attempted to varying degrees of success.
The trend towards an efficiency driven water sector
takes many different forms on a regional scale. Ed
Means, expert in long-range management strategies for
water utilities, recently stated that privatisation rates
have slowed. Means has also observed that “poorly
structured contracts, a history of under-bidding, and a
high cost, unpredictable, bidding environment have
damaged the outsourcing market.” Nonetheless, some
experts from utilities and governing entities still
anticipate more long-term public-private partnerships
and forecasts for different regions diverge. Variance in
the success of different (financial) management models
is especially large in developing countries.
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The number of private water utilities in the US rose from 13% to 16% from 1995 to
2000; however, the total water produced by private utilities declined from 12% to 9%
during that same period. Various governments are weighing up buy backs. La Paz
and El Alto were returned to state in 2005, and competition between companies in
the UK means some are struggling to
maintain infrastructure with price pressures
and quality demands. Attempts to increase
involvement of private partners have failed
in several countries due to political
sensitivity surrounding public services;
partly for ideological reasons and partly
because no adequate regulatory regimes are
in place to oversee such contracts. The
progress of PPP’s in many countries has thus
been limited in recent years.
Nonetheless, there is a huge potential for
further involvement of the private sector in
the water industry: privatisation and
liberalisation are not the only options. Some
experts anticipate sustained growth in
private sector involvement for the future. In
China, for example, market researchers have
projected private involvement in the water
sector of approximately 16% in 2015. This is
significant since China now accounts for 25%
of the global market in population terms.
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Conclusions
Our society is increasingly engaged in risk
management, which relies on modelling the
future. Fortunately the future brings
opportunities besides risks. Early
identification of these chances and threats
maximises our ability to adapt. Foresight
studies are a tool for this purpose. Chances
are hereby exploited in a timely fashion just
as threats are easier manage. After all, you
cannot change the direction of wind but you
can adjust your sails.
The water sector is constantly changing along with the rest of the world. There are
times when changes occur quickly, but progress can also be slow and steady. As an
added complexity, everything contains the potential for its opposite: yin and yang.
Hype's can suddenly emerge and disappear, just as trends can be overcome by
counter-trends. Besides this, not all ships sail at the same speed: global trends often
take diverse forms and have dissimilar impacts on a local scale. Some trends, like
increasing political tension, can have highly localised revolutionary effects.
If a trend is visualised as a bucket filling with water, then the turning point is the
drop that causes the bucket to overflow. ‘Horizon scanning’ improves our
understanding of the parameters that determine such turning points. Besides this, the
consequences of the potential overflow are analysed. This report summarises and
generalises the latest results of many local horizon scanning efforts worldwide. The
ten major global trends have thus been selected and described for the water sector.
Each of the trends listed is like a major
supporting thread being woven in the carpet
of circumstances that will define the water
sector in 2026. Even so, an incalculable
number and type of factors will determine
future conditions on a regional scale. For this
reason, the next step (developing adaptive
strategies) should be undertaken in
cooperation with the water utilities and other
stakeholders on a regional scale. The ultimate
goal is to translate assessment into action.
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Humans have predominantly given up adaptation in the form of nomadic living, and
now turn to technology to make it possible to stay in
one place (e.g. dykes in The Netherlands). Based on the
potential impacts of ten major global trends for the
water sector, the water supply, sanitation, and
wastewater treatment systems in many countries may
need to undergo considerable changes in the (near)
future to ensure their continuation. This must be seen in
the light of the fact that the poor majority of the world’s
population has the highest population growth rate and
the least capacity to adapt. These people are most at
risk.
Adaptive strategies (preparedness) can play an
important role in efficiently solving impending
problems and exploiting emerging opportunities
optimally. So, how can we translate knowledge of
trends into strategies for different continents, countries,
and regions? The core concept is “Think global act
local”, so local adaptations must be designed and
applied locally. The first step for all players is to
estimate what the ten major trends mean for them:
Business as usual:
Evolution:
Revolution:
no specific interventions are needed
gradual adjustment required (threats and opportunities)
alternatives are immediately necessary
Once the potential for impact has been estimated, then adaptive strategies can be
designed. Interventions can be made for different purposes:
Resistance:
Adaptation:
Mitigation:
protect conventional practices and technologies
change to fit new circumstances
counteract the trend by lessening its driving forces
Climate change, for instance, is likely to exacerbate
droughts in Spain. There is little room for resistance, so
revolutionary interventions may be necessary. Adaptive
measures could involve more irrigation or alternative
crop choice for agriculture and improved water efficiency
for industry and households. Reducing CO2 emissions
and reforestation can be classified as mitigation.
As a next step, TECHNEAU will develop guidelines for
developing adaptive strategies: a universally applicable
toolbox for designing local (technological) solutions. Workshops will be used to
involve diverse players within the sector in the design process. The adaptive
strategies developed in TECHNEAU will be tested in case studies at a later stage.
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Appendix 1:
Greyscale version of Figure 1: Trends ranked by authors.
Figure 1: The Ten Major Trends were ranked by the authors based on personal opinion. You are invited to rank
these trends for your region and submit your opinion to [email protected].
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Appendix 2
Credit Photographs (Agency: ©Dreamstime.com)
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Photograph Title
Thirsty
Positive Future
Life Ring
We’re Watching
Purple/Pink Water Gun 1
World destiny
GLobe
The eye
Coral with tiny fish and divers
Cracked earth
Being ill
The high cost of Hurricanes
Time and money
Los Angeles skyline at dusk
Slums
Water Pipeline
Now it’s your turn…
Connecting the world
World by water illustration
World copyright
Dirty and clear
Aspirin/paracetamol and a glass of water
Iceberg Above And Below
Suits of armour
Grunge barrels in the backyard
Eolic park
Rusty Pipes
Rusty Pipes
Spousal Abuse Humor
Poker - 2 cards
Senior woman III
Nucleus
Medical robot
3D Digital Human Body
Bubble gum girl
Virus
Water Drop illustr.
Microchip on a fingertip
Water - good for the body
Blue bottle and glasses
Woman holding jump rope & water bottle
Pressure gauge
Sign
Sailboat alone in a storm
Public and private domains
Sailboat
Financial Future
Square Peg
Photographer
Michael Pettigrew
Fotofreak
Fintastique
Joegough
Spauln
Anchesdd
Galdzer
Lammeyer
Begreen
Ene
Kameel4u
Alancrosthwaite
Pozn
Logoboom
Jan Martin Will
David Hyde
Mietitore
Alon-o
Grafikeray
Rolffimages
Juliussucha
Lilcrazyfuzzy
Jan Martin Will
Wessel Cirkel
Javarman
Arturo Limon
Rauso
Matthias33
Ken Hurst
Rafał Fabrykiewicz
Alcoholic
Spectral-design
Billyfoto
A-papantoniou
Eric Simard
Eraxion
Konradlew
Joris Van Den Heuvel
Karen Roach
Tracy Hebden
Ron Chapple
Marekp
Abdone
Benjamin Howell
Pryzmat
Rob Bouwman
April Turner
Tmcnem
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