Connecting Worlds: Emigration, Immigration and Development in
Insular Spaces, Angra do Heroismo, Azores, 29-30 May 2008
International Migration in a Sea of Islands:
Challenges and Opportunities for Pacific
Insular Spaces
Richard Bedford
Population Studies Centre
University of Waikato
The Azores is “big”!
• The Azores is a “big” island group by Pacific standards -2,342 km2, 238,000 people. Of the 22 Pacific countries and
territories only 7 are as big or bigger in land area, and only 5
have populations over 238,000.
• Sao Miguel is a “big” island by Pacific country standards 759 km2, 130,000 people. More than half (13) of the Pacific
countries/territories have smaller land areas and populations
• Sao Jorge, Pico and Faial are a “close” group in several
ways, I am told. Their combined area and population are:
870 km2, 39,000 people. 15 Pacific countries are smaller in
land area, and 8 have a smaller population
The Azores in perspective
• The smallest Pacific independent countries are Nauru (one
island, 21 km2, 10,000 people) and Tuvalu (9 islands, 25 km2,
10,000 people). The smallest self-governing country is Niue
(one island, 234 km2, 1,500 people).
• The Azores was uninhabited when Portuguese and others
from Europe settled here from 15th century on. All the
Pacific Island groups were inhabited when Europeans began
arriving and settling from 17th century on. All Pacific
countries have indigenous populations, including Australia
and New Zealand. This makes for very different histories and
identities.
The Azores in perspective cont.
• The Azores, while having many villages, is heavily
urbanised by comparison with most Pacific countries.
Villages in the Azores are like small urban communities
compared with villages in the Pacific.
• The Azores has an extensive diaspora -- not sure how big
it is but from what I have picked up from the presentations, it
must be several times larger than the resident population of
the Azores. This is also a feature of some Pacific countries,
but it is not a feature of them all. Most of the ones with the
biggest populations do not have a diaspora -- they have no
international migration outlets. This is a major issue in our
region and one I will come back to.
The Azores in perspective cont.
• The Azores as an Autonomous Region within Portugal has
its own government, but it cannot make immigration policy,
we heard yesterday.
•All of the independent Pacific countries and some of the
semi-independent ones (like Niue) do have immigration
policies, and they tend to be very strict in controlling who
can settle in their countries, especially who can own land.
They are much stricter than Australia or New Zealand, even
though they feel our policies are very strict.
Insular integrated spaces?
• The Azores is part of a region of islands called
Macaronesia -- a region defined by ancient Greek
geographers
• The Pacific Islands are divided into three regions:
• Melanesia: the “big” continental islands of the western
Pacific
• Micronesia: the “small” coral and coral/volcanic islands of
the northern Pacific
• Polynesia: the “many” volcanic and coral islands of the
eastern Pacific
• The Pacific “nesias” were all defined by European
explorers -- they are not indigenous groupings
9
A Pacific leaders’ challenge
Leaders of the Pacific states and territories meet each
year to review common development and security
issues. In 2004 they strongly advised everyone to:
“Listen to the needs and aspirations of the burgeoning
population of young people in the region, and
recognise the impact of bigger and more youthful
populations on the resources required for education
and vocational training, healthcare and job
opportunities”
Pacific youth populations
Sub-region
% tot pop
% growth
Melanesia
Micronesia
15-24 yrs
19.5
18.7
1995-2015
34.6
26.0
Polynesia
19.3
19.2
New Zealand
14.5
16.2
Australia
13.6
15.0
A demographic challenge
30000
Population (000)
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
1800
Aotearoa
1900
Australia
1950
Polynesia
2000
Melanesia
2050
Micronesia
The population situation around
1800
(000’s)
%
Aotearoa
Australia
150
600
7
27
Polynesia
Melanesia
200
1,150
9
52
Micronesia
100
5
2,200
100
Oceania
The population situation around
1900
(000’s)
%
Aotearoa
Australia
810
3,800
13
63
Polynesia
Melanesia
100
1,300
2
21
Micronesia
60
1
6,070
100
Oceania
The population situation around
2000
(000’s)
%
Aotearoa
Australia
3,780
19,140
12
63
Polynesia
Melanesia
590
6,480
2
21
Micronesia
516
2
30,510
100
Oceania
The population situation around
2050
(000’s)
%
Aotearoa
Australia
5,000
26,500
10
56
Polynesia
Melanesia
900
14,100
2
30
Micronesia
1,100
2
47,600
100
Oceania
Population change, 1950-2050
1950-2000
2000-2050
Aotearoa
1,870,000
1,220,000
Australia
10,840,000
7,360,000
Polynesia
350,000
310,000
Melanesia
4,370,000
7,620,000
Micronesia
350,000
580,000
17,780,000
17,090,000
Oceania
Population change, 1950-2050 (%)
1950-2000
2000-2050
Aotearoa
98
32
Australia
131
38
Polynesia
150
53
Melanesia
207
118
Micronesia
207
113
Oceania
140
56
The Five Pacifics
Four sets of islands
Islands with rapid population growth
Islands with slow population growth
Islands with negative population
growth
Islands with no major outlets for
international migration
“Islands” on the rim: Australasia
Pacific mobility worlds
Skills of out-migrants by
out-migration rate
20
Number of Pacific-born living in
OECD Countries, 2000
21
Diverse demographies
Australasia – replacement migration?
Polynesia – depopulation or repopulation?
Melanesia – overpopulation or emigration?
Micronesia – decolonisation or
recolonisation?
Supply of labour
Australasia -- shortages of skilled and
unskilled labour
Polynesia – shortages of skilled and
unskilled labour in several countries
Melanesia – oversupply of labour, especially
unskilled
Micronesia – shortages of skilled and
unskilled labour in several countries
Resolving labour supply issues
Australasia -- immigration of skilled labour;
Working Holiday schemes for less skilled
labour; Recognised Seasonal Employer
scheme in NZ
Polynesia – immigration of skilled and some
unskilled labour
Melanesia – absorbing surplus labour in
rural areas and urban informal sector
Micronesia – immigration of skilled and
unskilled labour
The Melanesian dilemma
Small formal sectors to the economy
Low percentages of population in urban
residence (especially PNG, Solomons,
Vanuatu)
Increasing pressure on productive land
resources and weak markets for rural
commodities
Very limited outlets for emigration of labour
(especially PNG, Solomons, Vanuatu)
The Micronesian dilemma
Many islands are low-lying atolls and reef
islands
Fresh water comes from a ground water
lense that is increasingly polluted
Changing patterns of tropical storms, and
higher “king” tides possibly associated with
sea level rise, are further damaging water
supplied
The inhabitants of some whole countries
may have to be resettled
The Polynesian dilemma
Most countries in Polynesia have extensive
overseas populations (Niue: 1,500 on the
island; 25,000 in New Zealand and Australia)
These are the classical MIRAB economies
that Godfrey and his colleagues have written
about, and Russell referred to yesterday
The dilemma is: will these islands become
places of residence just for the very young
and the old? These are the islands in the
Pacific that are being “gentrified”
Distinction between New Zealand and
Australian migration programmes
• NZ’s much stronger ties with the Pacific
• Special Migration Schemes
• Residents of the Cook Islands, Niue and Tokelau
are New Zealand Citizens
• A Quota Scheme for Western Samoa
• Visa-waiver and Work Permit Schemes for
Kiribati and Tuvalu (now finished)
• RSE – Regional Seasonal Employment
31
Australia: Pacific-born, 1947 to 2006
32
Total arrivals, Pacific citizens
(March Years)
1982-86
1992-96
2002-06
Polynesia
Melanesia
Micronesia
79,400
34,600
1,100
112,200
88,500
3,700
196,000
163,100
4,200
Pacific
% increase
115,000
204,400
77.7
363,300
77.7
Approvals for residence
2004-07 (June Years)
Australia
NZ
Total
Polynesia
Melanesia
Micronesia
845
7835
77
14574
10369
554
15419
18204
631
Pacific
8757
90
25497
41
34254
53
% Melanesia
Approvals for residence -- Australia
2004-07 (June Years)
Skills
Family
Other
Polynesia
Melanesia
Micronesia
74
3738
28
501
3683
40
270
414
9
Pacific
NZ
3840
4377
4224
10018
693
11102
Approvals for residence -- NZ
2004-07 (June Years)
Skills
Family
Other
Polynesia
Melanesia
Micronesia
264
4098
15
5549
4390
79
8761
1881
460
Pacific
Australia
4377
3840
10018
4224
11102
693
Model of AP-Australia migration system
37
Looking ahead …
Arguably the most contentious demographic issue
confronting Australia and NZ in the Pacific during the
next half century will be how to cope with pressure for
an emigration outlet from Melanesia.
Sustainable development in Melanesia will depend
heavily on opportunities for young people to travel
overseas for training and employment.
Responding to the issues of population growth and
employment provision in the Pacific is complicated by
differences in immigration policies of Australia and NZ.
An old challenge …
“Jobless young men get up to no good …
Unless New Zealand and Australia become much more
involved and much more inventive in that involvement
(easy to say, hard to do) we are up for endless patchups of armed peacekeepers, police, “governance” aid,
rescue aid and development aid. The challenge is to
find opportunity amid the problems”
Colin James, NZ Herald 12 Dec. 2006.
A new challenge ….
• Chinese in the Pacific -- “a new wave” (Crocombe
2007)
• “A paradigm shift from the situation of the past 200
years during which English speaking Europeans were
the dominant external presence, to one in which
Asians, mostly ethnic Chinese will be the major
external influence”
Ron Crocombe (2007) Asia in the Pacific Islands. Replacing the
West. Institute of Pacific Studies, University of the South Pacific
40
Some consequences of competition
• Competition between Taiwan and China
• Wide spectrum of skilled, unskilled, permanent and
temporary, legal and illegal
• Also heavy investment, involvement in media – virtual
as well as actual presence
• Association with crime
• Significant illegal migration
41
Building on a legacy of co-operation
The Global Commission on International Migration
(2005) concluded that migration policies at all levels
should be guided by several principles including
greater consultation and co-operation between states at
the regional level.
Efforts to promote this regional co-operation must be
based on an appreciation of the close linkages between
international migration and other key policy issues
including trade, aid, state security, human security and
human rights.