EUREKA COLLEGE
AMERICAN OPPORTUNITY
INDEX
2016
TABLE
OF
CONTENTS
3 > Letter from President Arnold, Eureka College
4 > Index Overview
5 > 2016 American Opportunity Index Score
6 > Seven Metrics
18 > Methodology and Demographic Summary
19 > Contact Info Media/Sponsorships
20 > Calculation of the American Opportunity Index
24 > Methodology & Demographic Summary
25 > American Opportunity Index Formulation
Sponsored by
The Ronald W. Reagan Society of Eureka College.
Off
300 E
Eureka, I
3
Office of the President
February 2016
Dear
Friends:
February 4, 2016
300 East College Avenue
Eureka, Illinois 61530-1500
309.467.6322 Office
309.467.6325 Fax
FebruaryCollege
2016
Eureka
is proud to release the findings of the first-ever "American Opportunity Ind
Dear Friends:
thisDear
index,
we wanted to measure the hope all Americans have in the promise of freedom an
Friends:
Eureka, we
believe
that students reach their full potential to learn, serve and lead when they have both the numtoAtpursue
their
dreams
berEureka
and quality
of opportunities
for their
develop
in concert
with Opportunity
their intellect.Index." In creating
College
is proud to release
the character
findings oftothe
first-ever
"American
this index, we wanted to measure the hope all Americans have in the promise of freedom and opportunity
For
years,
Eureka
provided
every generation
of students with
these
numerous
opportunities
to
The
inspiration
forCollege
this has
index
on American
opportunity
was
our
most famous
alumnus,
Pres
to161
pursue
their
dreams
grow and who
developpersonally
as leaders in their
personal
andthe
professional
lives. That is why
our graduates
include
42 college
Reagan,
lived
one
of
great
narratives
of President
the
America
dream
going from r
presidents,
seven
governors
and
members
of
Congress,
and
of
course,
the
40th
of
the
United
States.
The inspiration for this index on American opportunity was our most famous alumnus, President Ronald
world
leader with five distinct careers in between.
Reagan, who personally lived one of the great narratives of the America dream going from rural Illinois to
Today,
proud to
releaseinthe
findings of our first “American Opportunity Index.” We have comworldEureka
leader College
with fiveisdistinct
careers
between.
missioned this survey as a measure of whether Americans feel that they have both the freedom and opportunity to
During
a return
visit
to his
beloved
mater
inAmericans,
1967, thelikenewly
Governor
pursue their
dreams. By
sharing
the index
results,alma
we hope
that all
Eureka elected
College graduates,
will Ronald
During
a
return
visit
to
his
beloved
alma
mater
in
1967,
the
newly
elected
Governor
Ronald
Reagan
spoke
toward ensuring
the freedomsaying
and opportunity
for everyone
to pursueoftheir
ofwork
American
opportunity,
"the national
purpose
ourdreams.
country is to unleash the full t
of American opportunity, saying "the national purpose of our country is to unleash the full talent and genius
ofThis
every
see
theofvalues
of
Eureka
College
reflected
in years,
thisRonald
quote.
For 161 ye
of
every
individual."
see
values
Eureka
College
reflected
thismost
quote.
For alumnus,
161
our
indexindividual."
was inspiredWe
by We
the the
opportunities
that Eureka
provided
forinour
famous
Wilson
commitment
has
been
to rural
help
vision
and voice
to learn,
servevoice
and leadtoin learn,
the
commitment
has
been
to every
helpstudent
every
student
discover
vision
serve and l
Reagan
who went
from
his
Illinois
originsdiscover
to
worlda leader
with
fivea careers
in and
between.
world.
world.
During a return visit to his beloved alma mater, Reagan spoke of American opportunity, saying, “The national
In honor
of Ronald
story the
of opportunity,
wegenius
releaseofthe
findings
on his We
birthday
which
purpose
of our
countryReagan’s
is to unleash
full talent and
every
individual.”
see the
values that Eureka
th
.
Our
research
serendipitously
falls
on
the
same
date
of
Eureka
College’s
founding,
February
6
in young
Dutch Reagan
reflected
in this
Ininstilled
honor
of Ronald
Reagan’s
story
ofquote.
opportunity, we release the findingspartner
on hisforbirthday w
the American Opportunity Index is McLaughlin & Associates, a national research and polling firm basedthin
serendipitously
falls
on expertise
the same
ofstudy
Eureka
Our resea
Virginia,
whose
has date
been
indispensable
inCollege’s
the creation
Index.
InAlexandria,
honor of the
Eureka
College-Dutch
Reagan
case
of opportunity
that founding,
isofasthe
alive
and February
vibrant today6for. our
students
as it was Opportunity
nearly 75 years ago,
we release
the findings on the
week of Dutch’sabirthday—which
serendipithe
American
Index
is McLaughlin
& Associates,
national research
and pollin
tously
falls
on
the
same
date
of
Eureka
College’s
founding,
February
6th.
We
express
our
appreciation
to
the
members
of
The
Ronald
W.
Reagan
Society
of
Eureka
College
whose
Alexandria, Virginia, whose expertise has been indispensable in the creation of the Index.
support continues to make projects like this possible. Our vision is to make this index as much a fixture in
Our
research
for the
Opportunity
America
as partner
the promise
of American
opportunity
it measures.Index (AOI) is McLaughlin & Associates, a national research
and express
polling firm
based
in Alexandria, VA.,
whose
expertise and
has been
the AOI. of Eureka C
We
our
appreciation
to the
members
of wise
Thecounsel
Ronald
W. essential
ReagantoSociety
Yours 'neath the Elms at Eureka College,
support
continues
to make
this possible.
Ourfaculty,
vision
isstudents
to make
index
as mu
The trustees
of Eureka College
and Iprojects
express ourlike
appreciation
to the alumni,
staff,
andthis
friends
of
the college,as
including
the members
of The Ronald W.
Society whose support continues to make projects
America
the promise
of opportunity
it Reagan
measures.
like this possible. Our vision is to make this annual index as much a fixture in America as the promise of
opportunity it measures.
Yours 'neath the Elms at Eureka College,
Yours ‘neath the Elms at Eureka College,
J. David Arnold, Ph.D.
J. David Arnold, Ph.D.
President
J. David Arnold, Ph.D.
3
Total American
Opportunity Index
66
%
The Index measures attitudes about
freedom & opportunity to use our talents &
skills to pursue our dreams. Americans
perceive opportunity to be at two-thirds of
its full potential based on seven metrics.
THE EUREKA COLLEGE AMERICAN OPPORTUNITY INDEX
The Eureka College American Opportunity Index is derived from a national scientific sample based on seven
metrics that measure the attitudes of seven different perspectives on freedom and opportunity. Questions measure
American opportunity in seven areas: personal access, equality of access, compared to past generations, attitude
about the future, compared to other nations, belief in the future of American opportunity and leadership. Our
research partner is well respected national research and polling firm, McLaughlin & Associates of Alexandria,
Virginia.
EUREKA COLLEGE
As an institution of classical liberal arts learning, Eureka College has truly embodied the values of American opportunity throughout our 17 decades. We were chartered by Christian Church (Disciples of Christ) abolitionists
on February 6, 1855 as a pioneering co-educational college. Planted in the fertile prairie of central Illinois, Eureka
College has provided educational opportunity to thousands.
We believe Eureka College is uniquely qualified to create the first index on American opportunity because of our
proven values and commitment. However, the creation of such an index is poetic and profound considering
Eureka College is the smallest presidential alma mater in American history.
President Ronald Reagan lived the promise of American opportunity that has made him an inspirational example
to our students and college students everywhere. He never forgot his start on the long path of opportunity his life
represented. “Everything that has been good in my life began here,” he told Eureka College. “Everything.”
4
100
AMERICAN OPPORTUNITY INDEX
90
80
70
66%
60
50
OVERALL
2016
SCORE
40
30
20
10
0
2016
2017201820192020
5
91
6
EUREKA COLLEGE
%
AMERICAN OPPORTUNITY
INDEX
agree that America gives
them the freedoms &
opportunities to use their
talents & skills to pursue
their dreams.
Metric One
“FREEDOM AND OPPORTUNITY”
Agree/Disagree:
America gives me the freedom and opportunity to use my talents and
skills to pursue my dreams.
Political Party
Race/Ethnicity
Age
Gender
TOTAL
GOP
Dem.
Ind.
White
Black
Hisp.
18-29
30-40
41-55
56-65
Over
65
Men
Women
TOTAL
AGREE
91%
92%
92% 87%
91%
96%
86%
84%
92%
91%
90%
94%
91%
90%
Strongly
Agree
47%
47%
52%
41%
45%
59%
49%
33%
45%
46%
50%
57%
48%
46%
Somewhat
Agree
44%
46%
40% 46%
45%
37%
37%
52%
46%
45%
40%
37%
43%
44%
TOTAL
DISAGREE
8%
7%
7%
12%
8%
3%
12%
14%
8%
8%
8%
5%
8%
9%
Somewhat
Disagree
6%
5%
5%
24%
23%
26%
24%
29%
28%
24%
23%
1%
6%
6%
Strongly
Disagree
2%
2%
2%
3%
3%
1%
1%
2%
2%
2%
2%
4%
2%
3%
UNSURE
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
2%
1%
1%
0%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
MEAN
3.27
3.31
3.36
3.11
3.25
3.51
3.23
3.01
3.27
3.27
3.31
3.42
3.30
3.24
— Greater than nine in ten voters (91%) agree that America gives them the freedoms and opportunities to use
their talents and skills to pursue their dreams. Almost half, 47%, “strongly agree” with this statement.
— Agreement on the “Freedom and Opportunity” metric is largely consistent and widespread across key
sub-groups. Voters under the age of 30 were least likely to agree at 84%, however, the margin is still quite large.
7
2:1
68
EUREKA COLLEGE
AMERICAN OPPORTUNITY
INDEX
agree that every
American today has the
same freedom &
opportunity to use their
talents & skills to pursue
their dreams.
Metric Two
“EQUALITY”
Agree/Disagree:
Every American today has the same freedom and opportunity to use their
talents and skills to pursue their dreams.
Political Party
Race/Ethnicity
Age
Gender
TOTAL
GOP
Dem.
Ind.
White
Black
Hisp.
18-29
30-40
41-55
56-65
Over
65
Men
Women
TOTAL
AGREE
65%
69% 64% 63%
67%
62%
61%
54%
60%
65%
68%
78%
68%
63%
Strongly
Agree
30%
31% 33% 24%
30%
29%
33%
18%
26%
29%
39%
34%
32%
28%
Somewhat
Agree
36%
38% 31% 39%
37%
33%
28%
37%
34%
35%
43%
36%
35%
TOTAL
DISAGREE
7 29%
33%
30% 35% 35%
32%
37%
38%
45%
40%
34%
30%
22%
31%
36%
Somewhat
Disagree
23%
22% 24% 24%
23%
26%
24%
29%
28%
24%
23%
15%
22%
24%
Strongly
Disagree
10%
8%
11%
11%
9%
11%
14%
16%
12%
10%
8%
7%
9%
11%
UNSURE
1%
1%
1%
2%
1%
2%
1%
1%
0%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
MEAN
2.52
2.62
2.56
2.43
2.42
2.11
2.33
2.50
2.69
2.83
2.60
2.45
2.52 2.40
— By a nearly two to one margin, 65% to 33%, voters agree that every American today has the same freedom
and opportunity to use their talents and skills to pursue their dreams.
— There are clear generational differences on the “Equality” metric. Agreement with this statement increases
exponentially by age, while disagreement decreases. When looking at both ends of the spectrum, voters under
30 are much more divided, 54% to 45%, while seniors agree by a 78% to 22% margin.
— Differences exist, albeit less pronounced, by race and gender. White voters are more inclined to agree with this
statement (67% to 32%) than African Americans (62% to 37%) and Hispanics (61% to 38%).
— Men are also slightly more likely to agree than women, 68% to 31% and 63% to 36%, respectively.
9
54
10
EUREKA COLLEGE
%
AMERICAN OPPORTUNITY
INDEX
agree that they have
the same freedoms &
opportunities to
pursue their dreams
today that their parents
& grandparents had.
Metric Three
“PAST – PRESENT”
Agree/Disagree:
I have the same freedoms and opportunities to pursue my dreams today
that my parents and grandparents had.
Political Party
Race/Ethnicity
Age
Gender
Total
GOP
Dem.
Ind.
White
Black
Hisp.
18-29
30-40
41-55
56-65
Over 65 Men
Women
TOTAL
AGREE
54%
57%
59%
45%
54%
53%
54%
42%
49%
56%
56%
62%
55%
53%
Strongly
Agree
22%
22%
27%
17%
23%
23%
23%
12%
17%
23%
28%
27%
22%
23%
Somewhat
Agree
32%
34%
32%
28%
32%
30%
31%
30%
32%
32%
28%
36%
33%
30%
TOTAL
DISAGREE
45%
42%
40%
54%
45%
45%
44%
55%
51%
44%
42%
36%
44%
46%
Somewhat
Disagree
30%
31%
27%
33%
32%
23%
25%
37%
35%
30%
27%
23%
27%
33%
Strongly
Disagree
15%
11%
13%
22%
13%
23%
19%
18%
15%
15%
15%
13%
17%
13%
UNSURE
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
2%
2%
3%
1%
0%
2%
1%
2%
1%
MEAN
2.16
2.26
2.32
1.85
2.20
2.08
2.14
1.80
2.00
2.20
2.28
2.39
2.15
2.17
— Voters are much more divided when comparing their own freedoms and opportunities to those of their
predecessors. A slight majority, 54%, agree that they have the same freedoms and opportunities to pursue
their dreams today that their parents and grandparents had. Forty-five percent (45%) disagree
— Once again, there are stark generational differences, as younger voters are much more likely to disagree on
the “Past-Present” metric. Agreement with this statement again increases by age and vice versa, with 55% of
voters under 30 disagreeing and 62% of seniors agreeing.
— By party, Independents are most negative, 45% agree to 54% disagree. There are not significant differences
among Republicans and Democrats, 57% to 42% and 59% to 40%, respectively.
11
1/2
12
EUREKA COLLEGE
AMERICAN OPPORTUNITY
INDEX
agree that future
generations will have the
same freedoms &
opportunities to pursue
their dreams compared
to today.
Metric Four
“PRESENT – FUTURE”
Agree/Disagree:
Future generations will have the same freedoms and opportunities to
pursue their dreams that I have today.
Political Party
Race/Ethnicity
Age
Gender
Total
GOP
Dem.
Ind.
White
Black
Hisp.
18-29
30-40
41-55
56-65
Over 65
Men
Women
TOTAL
AGREE
50%
45% 63% 38%
45%
67%
60%
44%
48%
49%
54%
54%
53%
48%
Strongly
Agree
20%
16%
29% 13%
17%
32%
24%
18%
21%
20%
23%
18%
21%
20%
Somewhat
Agree
30%
29% 34% 25%
28%
35%
36%
27%
27%
29%
31%
36%
32%
28%
TOTAL
DISAGREE
42%
50% 27% 53%
47%
20%
38%
46%
48%
45%
37%
36%
39%
45%
Somewhat
Disagree
28%
36%
19% 31%
32%
11%
22%
31%
39%
28%
21%
26%
25%
31%
Strongly
Disagree
14%
13%
8%
21%
14%
9%
16%
15%
9%
17%
16%
9%
14%
14%
UNSURE
8%
5%
10%
9%
8%
13%
2%
10%
4%
7%
9%
11%
8%
8%
MEAN
2.14
1.98
2.57 1.78
2.01
2.69
2.30
2.01
2.12
2.07
2.24
2.26
2.21
2.09
— Voters are also divided when it comes to comparing with future generations. Just half agree that future
generations will have the same freedoms and opportunities to pursue their dreams compared to today, while
42% disagree.
— The “Present-Future” metric shows partisan, racial, generational and gender differences. Overall, left of center
voters are more likely to agree with this statement. By party, Democrats are most likely to agree, 63% to 27%,
while Republicans disagree, 50% to 45%. By race, whites divide, 45% to 47%, while 67% of African
Americans and 60% of Hispanics agree.
— By age, voters under 30 and between the ages of 30 and 40 are divided, 44% to 46% and 48% to 48%,
respectively. Voters between the ages of 56 and 65 as well as seniors are more optimistic, 54% to 37% and
54% to 36%, respectively.
— By ideology, liberals are most optimistic on this metric, agreeing by a 62% to 31% margin. Moderates are
more divided, 50% to 39%, while the majority of conservatives disagrees, 53% to 41%.
13
90
14
EUREKA COLLEGE
%
AMERICAN OPPORTUNITY
INDEX
agree that Americans
have greater freedoms &
opportunities to pursue
their dreams compared
to people living in other
countries.
Metric Five
“INTERNATIONAL”
Agree/Disagree:
Compared to people living in other countries, Americans have greater
freedoms and opportunities to use their talents and skills to pursue
their dreams.
Political Party
Race/Ethnicity
Age
Gender
Total
GOP Dem.
Ind.
White
Black Hisp.
18-29
30-40
41-55 56-65
Over 65 Men
Women
TOTAL
AGREE
90%
91%
89%
89%
91%
91%
79%
81%
89%
90%
93%
93%
89%
90%
Strongly
Agree
55%
55%
61%
47%
55%
64%
46%
36%
52%
53%
66%
61%
53%
56%
Somewhat
Agree
35%
36%
29%
42%
36%
26%
33%
45%
37%
37%
27%
32%
35%
35%
TOTAL
DISAGREE
8%
8%
8%
10%
7%
5%
18%
16%
11%
9%
4%
5%
9%
8%
Somewhat
Disagree
6%
5%
6%
8%
5%
4%
15%
14%
9%
6%
2%
4%
7%
6%
Strongly
Disagree
2%
2%
2%
1%
2%
2%
3%
2%
2%
3%
2%
1%
2%
2%
UNSURE
2%
2%
3%
2%
2%
4%
2%
4%
0%
2%
3%
2%
3%
2%
MEAN
3.34
3.36
3.40
3.24
3.37
3.48
3.04
2.99
3.27
3.31
3.53
3.48
3.31
3.36
— Compared to people living in other countries, 90% of voters agree that Americans have greater freedoms and
opportunities to pursue their dreams, while just 8% disagree. It clearly appears that Americans believe in the
ideal of “American Exceptionalism.”
15
73
16
EUREKA COLLEGE
%
AMERICAN OPPORTUNITY
INDEX
believe the concept of the
overall promise of freedom
& opportunity will exsist in
America’s future.
Metric Six
“PROMISE”
Agree/Disagree:
The promise of freedom and opportunity to pursue your dreams will
exist in America’s future.
Political Party
Race/Ethnicity
Age
Gender
Total
GOP
Dem. Ind.
White Black
Hisp. 18-29
30-40
41-55
56-65
Over 65
Men
Women
TOTAL
AGREE
73%
70%
81%
66%
71%
79%
75%
68%
76%
71%
73%
77%
74%
72%
Strongly
Agree
31%
24%
43%
24%
29%
43%
32%
26%
26%
31%
36%
34%
32%
31%
Somewhat
Agree
42%
46%
39%
42%
42%
36%
43%
42%
50%
40%
37%
43%
42%
42%
TOTAL
DISAGREE
16%
18%
10%
22%
17%
8%
17%
20%
18%
17%
14%
12%
16%
16%
Somewhat
Disagree
13%
15%
8%
16%
14%
5%
14%
17%
16%
13%
10%
8%
12%
13%
Strongly
Disagree
3%
3%
2%
6%
4%
3%
3%
3%
2%
4%
4%
4%
4%
3%
UNSURE
11%
12%
9%
12%
12%
13%
8%
12%
6%
12%
14%
11%
10%
12%
— While voters were mostly divided when projecting freedoms and opportunities for future generations compared
to themselves, 50% to 42% (Present-Future metric), they are more optimistic when it comes to the overall
promise of freedom and opportunity in America’s future, 73% agree to 16% disagree.
— Democrats (81% to 10%) and African Americans (79% to 8%) are most likely to agree with this statement.
— By age, voters under 30 are again most negative on this metric, 68% agree to 20% agree.
17
57
16
18
EUREKA COLLEGE
%
AMERICAN OPPORTUNITY
INDEX
believe that leaders are
working to make sure
Americans have the
freedom & opportunity to
use their talents & skills to
pursue their dreams.
Metric Seven
“LEADERS”
Agree/Disagree:
Our leaders work to make sure Americans have the freedom and
opportunity to use their talents and skills to pursue their dreams.
Political Party
Race/Ethnicity
Age
GOP
White
Black
Hisp.
18-29
TOTAL
AGREE
57% 50% 72% 44% 51%
74%
61%
53%
59%
Strongly
Agree
17% 13% 27% 10% 14%
28% 27%
17%
Somewhat
Agree
39% 37% 45% 34% 38%
47% 34%
TOTAL
DISAGREE
39% 44% 25% 50% 44%
Somewhat
Disagree
Total
56-65
Over 65
58%
57%
55%
53%
59%
19%
19%
19%
12%
15%
19%
37%
40%
39%
37%
43%
38%
40%
22% 32%
39%
36%
39%
39%
40%
43%
35%
26% 35% 17% 30% 31%
14%
17%
28%
27%
28%
22%
27%
28%
25%
Strongly
Disagree
12%
9%
8% 20% 13%
8%
15%
11%
9%
11%
16%
13%
15%
10%
UNSURE
5%
6%
3%
4%
7%
7%
5%
4%
5%
5%
4%
6%
2.72 2.40
2.20
2.33
2.27
2.21
2.15
2.11
2.34
MEAN
Dem. Ind.
Gender
6%
5%
2.23 2.10 2.65 1.85 2.09
30-40
41-55
Men
Women
— When it comes to America’s leaders, 57% believe that they are working to make sure Americans have the
freedom and opportunity to use their talents and skills to pursue their dreams. Nearly four in ten (39%) disagree.
— These divisions regarding America’s political leaders are more partisan and racial than they are generational. By
party, Democrats are most likely to agree with the “Leaders” metric, 72% to 25%. Republicans are more divided, 50% to 44%, while Independents are most negative, 50% disagree to 44% agree. These partisan differences
could be a reflection of Independents large dissatisfaction with America’s political system as well as Republicans
desire to change course and their strong inclination to prefer “outsider” candidates, both of which have been
well-documented in national trends.
— By race, African Americans are most positive, 74% to 22%, while white voters are more divided, 51% to 44%.
— Women are more positive than men, 59% to 35% to 53% to 43%, respectively.
19
Calculation of the American Opportunity Index
The responses to these seven questions were then collectively scored to create the American
Opportunity Index. It was calculated by factoring in the mean responses to each question where:
4 = Strongly Agree
3 = Somewhat Agree
2 = Unsure
1 = Somewhat Disagree
0 = Strongly Disagree
With a total of seven questions, the highest possible mean score is 28.00 and the lowest is 0.
The collective mean score for the seven metrics is then divided into 28.00 to create the American
Opportunity Index, which will be on a scale from 0% to 100%.
While this is the inaugural year of Eureka College’s assessment of the concept of freedom and
opportunity, this index helps to show differences among key sub-groups as it relates to all seven
metrics and more importantly, will assess changes in public opinion over time.
American Opportunity Index Formulation
20
METRIC
TOTAL
Freedom/Opportunity
3.27
Equality
2.52
Past–Present
2.16
Present–Future
2.14
International
3.34
Promise
2.85
Leaders
2.23
TOTAL SCORE
18.51
AOI %
66 %
Mean scores are totaled up and divided into 28.00 (highest possible score if everyone responded “strongly agree”): 18.51/28.00 = 66% AOI
4 = Strongly Agree
3 = Somewhat Agree
2 = Unsure
1 = Somewhat Disagree
0 = Strongly Disagree
With a total of seven questions, the highest possible mean score is 28.00 and the lowest is 0.
The collective mean score for the seven metrics is then divided into 28.00 to create the American
Opportunity Index, which will be on a scale from 0% to 100%.
While this is the inaugural year of Eureka College’s assessment of the concept of freedom and
opportunity, this index helps to show differences among key sub-groups as it relates to all seven
metrics and more importantly, will assess changes in public opinion over time.
T
The American
Opportunity
Index Index
he American
Opportunity
As detailed in the chart below, the total American Opportunity Index is 66%.
However, the Index differs by key sub-groups.
Total
METRIC
Political Party
Race/Ethnicity
Age
Gender
GOP
Dem.
Ind.
White
Black
Hisp.
18-29
30-40
41-55
56-65
Over 65
Men
Women
Freedom/
Opport.
3.27
3.31
3.36
3.11
3.25
3.51
3.23
3.01
3.27
3.27
3.31
3.42
3.30
3.24
Equality
2.52
2.62
2.52
2.40
2.56
2.43
2.42
2.11
2.33
2.50
2.69
2.83
2.60
2.45
Past-Present
2.16
2.26
2.32
1.85
2.20
2.08
2.14
1.80
2.00
2.20
2.28
2.39
2.15
2.17
PresentFuture
2.14
1.98
2.57
1.78
2.01
2.69
2.30
2.01
2.12
2.07
2.24
2.26
2.21
2.09
International
3.34
3.36
3.40
3.24
3.37
3.48
3.04
2.99
3.27
3.31
3.53
3.48
3.31
3.36
Promise
2.85
2.74
3.12
2.62
2.80
3.10
2.86
2.71
2.83
2.81
2.92
2.96
2.86
2.84
Leaders
2.23
Total
2.10
2.65
1.85
Political Party
2.09
2.72
2.40
Race/Ethnicity
2.20
2.33
2.27
Age
2.21
2.15
2.11
2.34
Gender
METRIC
TOTAL SCORE
AOI %
18.51 18.37
GOP 19.94
Dem.
16.85
18.28
Ind. White
20.01
Black
18.39
Hisp.
16.83
18-29
18.15
30-40
18.43
41-55
19.18
56-65
19.49
Over
65
18.54
Men
18.49
Women
66%
60%
71%
66%
60%
65%
66%
69%
70%
66%
66%
66%
71%
65%
— By party, Democrats have the highest score at 71%, followed by Republicans at 66% and Independents at 60%.
— When looking at the Index by race and ethnicity, African Americans have the highest score at 71%, while
Hispanics and whites are lower, 66% and 65%, respectively.
— Generationally, the American Opportunity Index increases by age group. Voters under 30 have the lowest
Index score at 60%, while seniors have the highest, at 70%.
— Men and women have identical scores of 66%.
21
EUREKA COLLEGE
AMERICAN OPPORTUNITY
INDEX
2016
22
Conclusions
It is clear that many voters believe in the concept of freedom and opportunity in America as well as its promise
to exist in the future. In other words, voters overwhelmingly believe in Ronald Reagan’s “Shining City on the Hill”
and the American Dream. Furthermore, most voters acknowledge America’s “exceptionalism” when comparing the
prevalence of this concept with other countries. However, when voters are asked more specifically to evaluate this
concept as it relates to previous and future generations, there is more of a divide, with the pessimism skewing towards younger voters. There is also less agreement when it comes to perceptions of our leaders working to ensure
that these freedoms and opportunities exist for Americans.
The variations in the American Opportunity Index by key sub-groups reflect the dynamics that were seen in the
seven individual questions. The most pronounced differences in these metrics were generational. For example,
younger voters were less optimistic and more negative than older voters on the metrics that saw the biggest divides,
like “Equality,” “Past-Present,” “Present-Future” and “Promise.” On the other hand, the “Leaders” metric was
driven more by partisan and racial differences, with left of center voters providing more positive responses, which
again matches the pattern in the American Opportunity Index.
The idea of freedom and opportunity in America is alive and well, but skepticism exists when voters are asked in a
more personal fashion. This phenomenon is akin to the “theory vs. practice” adage, as voters acknowledge the
concept or belief of freedom and opportunity, but question its execution in real terms. The lower Index scores for
younger voters are not particularly surprising due to current economic and societal conditions, but nonetheless
noteworthy. Will this translate into political disillusionment for younger voters or perhaps motivate them to turn
out? The American Opportunity Index will help to answer these questions and gauge these sentiments from year to
year and it will be quite instructive to see how the Index is affected one year from now, on the heels of the inauguration of our next President.
23
Methodology
McLaughlin & Associates conducted a national survey of 1,007 likely 2016 general election voters from January
14th to 19th, 2016. All interviews were conducted online and respondents were carefully selected and screened from
a nationwide representative platform of individuals who elect to participate in online surveys. Data for this survey
have been stratified by political party, age, race, gender and geography to reflect the demographic composition of a
presidential electorate. Because the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for participation rather than a
probability sample, no estimates of sampling error can be calculated. All surveys may be subject to multiple sources
of error, including, but not limited to sampling error, coverage error and measurement error. However, a confidence
interval of 95% was calculated in order to produce an error estimate of +/- 3.1% for the 1,007 respondents. This
error estimate should be taken into consideration in much the same way that analysis of probability polls takes into
account the margin of sampling error. The error estimate increases for cross-tabulations. Totals may not add up to
exactly 100% due to rounding
24
DEMOGRAPHIC SUMMARY FOR AOI SURVEY
TOTAL
RACE/ETHNICITY
Republican
32%
White
71%
Democrat
38%
Black
13%
Independent
30%
Hispanic
12%
IDEOLOGY
TOTAL
Asian
4%
Liberal
25%
Other
1%
Moderate
40%
AGE
TOTAL
Conservative
35%
18-29
15%
REGION
TOTAL
30-40
18%
East
18%
41-55
27%
Midwest
25%
56-65
22%
South
37%
Over 65
19%
West
21%
GENDER
TOTAL
Male
46%
Female
54%
POLITICAL PARTY
TOTAL
25
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
With gratitude for their leadership:
The Board of Trustees of Eureka College
Bill King, Chairman
J. David Arnold, Ph.D.
President
Jamel Santa Cruze Bell, Ph.D.
Interim President-Elect
Michael K. Murtagh
Vice President for Institutional Advancement
Special Thanks for Support & Inspiration:
Research: McLaughlin & Associates
Promotion: Shirley & Banister
Media: Katherine Tellez
Report Design: Malone Sizelove
Web Design: Dustin Wyse-Fisher
Schedule & Coordination: Jyl Zubiate
Faculty, Staff, Students, Alumni and Friends of Eureka College
Special thanks to the donors of The Ronald W. Reagan Society
Director, The Ronald W. Reagan Society
John D. Morris
And to the founders of Eureka College, believing in American Opportunity since 1855.
Eureka College
300 East College Avenue
Eureka, Illinois 61530
www.eureka.edu/aoi
26
The Eureka College Opportunity Index was made possible from the generous support
of The Ronald W. Reagan Society of Eureka College.
27
Media Inquiries:
Katherine Tellez
Media Relations Coordinator
Eureka College
309.467.6318
[email protected]
Sponsor Inquiries:
John D. Morris
Director, The Ronald W. Reagan Society
Eureka College
300 East College Avenue
Eureka, Illinois 61530
309.467.6477
[email protected]