Authoritarian Reversals and Democratic Consolidation
Milan Svolik
Assistant Professor
Department of Political Science
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
[email protected]
Milan Svolik, November 2006
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Central Argument and Results: Question
Why do some democracies survive for more than a century while others
revert to dictatorship after only a brief democratic period?
Milan Svolik, November 2006
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Central Argument and Results: Question
Why do some democracies survive for more than a century while others
revert to dictatorship after only a brief democratic period?
New empirical model – trajectory of a democracy after transition consists of
two distinct stages:
•
•
Initially, all democracies are transitional and face a positive risk of
authoritarian reversal at each point in time during this stage.
Later, some democracies become consolidated and are no longer at risk
of reverting to dictatorship.
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Central Argument and Results
New insights into the dynamics of democratic consolidation, that could not
be obtained using standard methods:
•
separate the effect of covariates on democratic consolidation vs. timing of
reversals
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Central Argument and Results
New insights into the dynamics of democratic consolidation, that could not
be obtained using standard methods:
•
separate the effect of covariates on democratic consolidation vs. timing of
reversals
◦ the level of economic development and the type of executive affect
whether a democracy is consolidated as opposed to transitional, but it
do not explain when a reversal will occur
Milan Svolik, November 2006
- p. 3/24
Central Argument and Results
New insights into the dynamics of democratic consolidation, that could not
be obtained using standard methods:
•
separate the effect of covariates on democratic consolidation vs. timing of
reversals
◦ the level of economic development and the type of executive affect
whether a democracy is consolidated as opposed to transitional, but it
do not explain when a reversal will occur
◦ economic recessions affect the timing of reversals, but have no effect
on whether a democracy is consolidated or transitional
Milan Svolik, November 2006
- p. 3/24
Central Argument and Results
New insights into the dynamics of democratic consolidation, that could not
be obtained using standard methods:
•
separate the effect of covariates on democratic consolidation vs. timing of
reversals
◦ the level of economic development and the type of executive affect
whether a democracy is consolidated as opposed to transitional, but it
do not explain when a reversal will occur
◦ economic recessions affect the timing of reversals, but have no effect
on whether a democracy is consolidated or transitional
◦ the level of economic development determines the extent to which a
democracy is susceptible to the risk of a reversal, but the eventual
timing of that risk is only associated with economic recessions
Milan Svolik, November 2006
- p. 3/24
Central Argument and Results
New insights into the dynamics of democratic consolidation, that could not
be obtained using standard methods:
•
•
separate the effect of covariates on democratic consolidation vs. timing of
reversals
◦ the level of economic development and the type of executive affect
whether a democracy is consolidated as opposed to transitional, but it
do not explain when a reversal will occur
◦ economic recessions affect the timing of reversals, but have no effect
on whether a democracy is consolidated or transitional
◦ the level of economic development determines the extent to which a
democracy is susceptible to the risk of a reversal, but the eventual
timing of that risk is only associated with economic recessions
substantial proportion of currently existing democracies is consolidated
Milan Svolik, November 2006
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Central Argument and Results
Revision of existing findings:
•
existing studies underestimate the risk of an early reversal while
simultaneously overestimating the risk of a late reversal
Milan Svolik, November 2006
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Central Argument and Results
Revision of existing findings:
•
existing studies underestimate the risk of an early reversal while
simultaneously overestimating the risk of a late reversal
◦ too optimistic about the survival of new democracies: median at 13 (vs.
37 years)
Milan Svolik, November 2006
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Central Argument and Results
Revision of existing findings:
•
existing studies underestimate the risk of an early reversal while
simultaneously overestimating the risk of a late reversal
◦ too optimistic about the survival of new democracies: median at 13 (vs.
37 years)
◦ too optimistic about the effect of those variables that either make
consolidation unlikely or accelerate reversals
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Empirical Motivation
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Empirical Motivation
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Empirical Motivation
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Empirical Motivation
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Empirical Motivation
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Empirical Motivation
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Empirical Motivation
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Empirical Motivation
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Empirical Motivation
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An Empirical Model of Democratic Survival
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An Empirical Model of Democratic Survival
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An Empirical Model of Democratic Survival
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An Empirical Model of Democratic Survival
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Inference from data on democratic survival
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Authoritarian Reversals and Democratic Consolidation
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Authoritarian Reversals and Democratic Consolidation
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Authoritarian Reversals and Democratic Consolidation
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Authoritarian Reversals and Democratic Consolidation
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Authoritarian Reversals and Democratic Consolidation
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Summary
New empirical approach to the study of democratic consolidation and
authoritarian reversals:
•
•
rather then being a single population, the existing democracies are a
mixture of transitional and consolidated democracies with different
chances of reverting to dictatorship
whether an existing democracy is transitional or consolidated must be
inferred from the data
New findings:
•
•
separate the effect of covariates on democratic consolidation vs. timing of
reversals
substantial proportion of currently existing democracies is consolidated
Revision of existing findings:
•
existing studies underestimates the risk of an early reversal while
simultaneously overestimating the risk of a late reversal
Milan Svolik, November 2006
- p. 24/24
Summary
New empirical approach to the study of democratic consolidation and
authoritarian reversals:
•
•
rather then being a single population, the existing democracies are a
mixture of transitional and consolidated democracies with different
chances of reverting to dictatorship
whether an existing democracy is transitional or consolidated must be
inferred from the data
New findings:
•
•
separate the effect of covariates on democratic consolidation vs. timing of
reversals
substantial proportion of currently existing democracies is consolidated
Revision of existing findings:
•
existing studies underestimates the risk of an early reversal while
simultaneously overestimating the risk of a late reversal
Milan Svolik, November 2006
- p. 24/24
Summary
New empirical approach to the study of democratic consolidation and
authoritarian reversals:
•
•
rather then being a single population, the existing democracies are a
mixture of transitional and consolidated democracies with different
chances of reverting to dictatorship
whether an existing democracy is transitional or consolidated must be
inferred from the data
New findings:
•
•
separate the effect of covariates on democratic consolidation vs. timing of
reversals
substantial proportion of currently existing democracies is consolidated
Revision of existing findings:
•
existing studies underestimates the risk of an early reversal while
simultaneously overestimating the risk of a late reversal
Milan Svolik, November 2006
- p. 24/24
Summary
New empirical approach to the study of democratic consolidation and
authoritarian reversals:
•
•
rather then being a single population, the existing democracies are a
mixture of transitional and consolidated democracies with different
chances of reverting to dictatorship
whether an existing democracy is transitional or consolidated must be
inferred from the data
New findings:
•
•
separate the effect of covariates on democratic consolidation vs. timing of
reversals
substantial proportion of currently existing democracies is consolidated
Revision of existing findings:
•
existing studies underestimates the risk of an early reversal while
simultaneously overestimating the risk of a late reversal
Milan Svolik, November 2006
- p. 24/24
Summary
New empirical approach to the study of democratic consolidation and
authoritarian reversals:
•
•
rather then being a single population, the existing democracies are a
mixture of transitional and consolidated democracies with different
chances of reverting to dictatorship
whether an existing democracy is transitional or consolidated must be
inferred from the data
New findings:
•
•
separate the effect of covariates on democratic consolidation vs. timing of
reversals
substantial proportion of currently existing democracies is consolidated
Revision of existing findings:
•
existing studies underestimates the risk of an early reversal while
simultaneously overestimating the risk of a late reversal
Milan Svolik, November 2006
- p. 24/24