Electronic Part Obsolescence
Forecasting
CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Center
Obsolescence/Technology Insertion
University of Maryland
Pro-Active Approaches to Part
Obsolescence Management
Understanding that electronic part obsolescence is going to
be a significant contributor to system sustainment costs,
what actions can be taken during the initial system design to
minimize the impact of part obsolescence?
While reactive obsolescence mitigation approaches can
provide 3:1 paybacks, pro-active part obsolescence planning
holds the promise for 20:1 or 100:1 paybacks*.
• Judiciously choose parts (part selection)
• Forecast part life cycles
• Life cycle planning
*R.
Stogdill, “Dealing with Obsolete Parts,” IEEE Design& Test of Computers, pp. 17-25, April-June 1999
CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Center
Obsolescence/Technology Insertion
University of Maryland
1
Careful Part Selection
• Does the part manufacturer recommend usage in new designs?
• Is the manufacturer willing to support the part for the long term?
• Is the part technology likely to become obsolete (such as through-hole
versus surface mount)?
• Is the part single-sourced, or is there more than one supplier?
• Are upgrades/substitutes available?
• Can the part be emulated?
• Is the part "modular" in nature (e.g., ASIC)?
• Are the aftermarket suppliers likely to support this part?
• Is the part to be placed on (economically) discardable sub-assemblies?
• Has the design been partitioned to simplify solutions to expected part
obsolescence problems?
• Does the design consider plans for future enhancements/upgrades?
CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Center
Obsolescence/Technology Insertion
University of Maryland
Forecasting Part Obsolescence
Objective: Track and archive obsolete parts and
predict when existing parts will become obsolete.
Approaches (tools and databases):
• i2 (Aspect, TACTech)
– TACTech
– TACTRAC Health Model
– Lifecycle Management (LCM)
• CALCE (University of Maryland)
• OPT (SHAI)
• MTI
• Total Parts Plus
• +many other commercial and government database and alert services
(GIDEP, IHS, …)
CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Center
Obsolescence/Technology Insertion
University of Maryland
2
TACTech:
i2/Aspect/TACTech Tools
• Traditionally more focused on providing discontinuance information on parts
already obsolete rather than on lifecycle forecasting for existing parts
• Forecasts parts-specific obsolescence risk index
• Based on TACTech database
• May not be kept up to date with new parts in future (phasing out)
TACTRAC Health Model:
• Forecasts obsolescence risk associated with an entire BOM
• Understands physical hierarchy of system, i.e., can see common parts in
different parts of the system
• Provides alternative part assessment
• Post-processing (plots, reports, etc.) that TACTech service does not provide
• Based on TACTech database, but can be linked with Aspect database
Lifecycle Management (LCM):
•
•
•
•
Lifecycle management shell around TACTRAC
Lifecycle optimizer – recommend alternates for obsolete parts
y
Workflow process manager
Ver
Integrated with Aspect electronic parts database
CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Center
Obsolescence/Technology Insertion
sive
n
e
Exp
University of Maryland
TACTech Obsolescence Forecasting
TACTech life cycle forecasting uses an approach in which the part life cycle
stage is determined by averaging unquantifiable technological and market
attributes.
Attributes
Speed
Process
Sourcing
depth
Usage
1
Emerging
2
Growth
3
Mature
4
Decline
5
Phase Out
<= 10 ns
200-500 MHz
11 to 24 ns
133-200 MHz
25 to 34 ns
60-133 MHz
35 to 45 ns
16-60 MHz
55 ns or slower
<16 MHz
BiCMOS
DMOS
CMOS
Bipolar
Secondary
sourcing
Mature
sourcing, production
peaking
Increasing
Leveling off
Production
declines,
discontinuance
begins
Declining
PMOS
NMOS
Not suitable for
design, phase
out in progress
Introduction of
new technology,
limited sourcing
Design in
Substrate
GaAs
Complexity
ULSI
Silicon
VLSI
(100,000+)
CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Center
Obsolescence/Technology Insertion
LSI
(10,000+)
Phase out
Germanium
MSI
(1,000+)
SSI
(100+)
University of Maryland
3
TACTech Obsolescence Prediction
• Fundamentally TACTech outputs
– Data in the form of a number (index) that represents obsolescence
rating of the component
– The index can vary from 1 through 5
– Data is available only for active components; passive components
are assumed to be available at all times in some form
– TACTRAC post-processes the raw data above and allows it to be
used at board and systems levels
• What does the index mean?
– An index value of 1 means being in the beginning stages of life of
the component and 5 being in the ending stages of the life of the
component
– The life span of the component is an average mean lifetime of the
component category it belongs to, e.g., microprocessors,
transistors, diodes etc.
CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Center
Obsolescence/Technology Insertion
University of Maryland
TACTech: Disadvantages
The disadvantages of the TACTech approach are that it:
• does not capture market trends accurately, instead relies on
unquantifiable attributes such as technology complexity, usage, and
sourcing depth.
• uses the number of sources (for procurement) in predictions, which
may give false or inaccurate results.
• does not forecast years to obsolescence of a device/technology group,
instead gives an overall life cycle stage for the part number. For
example, a manufacturer discontinuing a part does not imply that its
device/technology group is obsolete.
• makes the erroneous assumption that all microcircuits follow the
same life cycle curve, e.g., in reality, 16-bit RISC microcontrollers, 4bit CISC microcontrollers, and 16M DRAMs all have different life
cycle profiles.
CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Center
Obsolescence/Technology Insertion
University of Maryland
4
TACTech Business Model
• Traditionally, TACTech’s success was based on an extensive
network of human contacts at IC manufacturers and
distributors
• Potential competitors could not build or maintain a network
to complete with TACTech
• With IC manufactures adopting of the web as the preferred
delivery mechanism for PCNs and other data associated with
electronic parts, the value of TACTech’s human network is
decreasing
• Other web-based services (e.g., PCNAlert.com, Total Parts
Plus) are catching up quickly
CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Center
Obsolescence/Technology Insertion
University of Maryland
Mapping TACTech Data to Years-toObsolescence
• TACTech is a popular approach to obtaining obsolescence
data for electronic components, but the obsolescence index
data must be mapped to obsolescence dates and
uncertainties for use in life cycle cost modeling.
 (i − 1) 
Obsolescence date = B + L1 −

4 

where,
B = Base year
L = Life span of the component
i = TACTech obsolescence index
Mean average life span of
component categories
Discrete Devices
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2.5
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Microcircuits
7.5
cli
De
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ase
Ph
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10
0
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u ct
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Int
CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Center
Obsolescence/Technology Insertion
5
1 0
th
ow
Gr
ity
tur
Ma
1 5
cli
De
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Ph
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2 0
University of Maryland
5
Electronic Component Years-toObsolescence Prediction
Evaluate years to obsolescence
from trend equations
Curve-fit sales data of secondary
attribute (for example, package style)
Units shipped (in millions)
Plot curve fit characteristics vs.
primary attributes to form trend eq.
3000
2500
Life cycle profile parameters:
µ = 1998.2
σ = 1.6 years
16M actual
16M forecast
Current Date (July 1999)
Curve-fit sales data of primary attribute
(for example, DRAM memory size)
2000
1500
1000
500
0
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
Life Cycle Curve for a 16M DRAM
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
Year
Evaluate years to obsolescence
from curve-fits of secondary attribute
R. Solomon, P. Sandborn, and M. Pecht, “Electronic Part
Life Cycle Concepts and Obsolescence Forecasting,”
IEEE Transactions on Components and Packaging
Technologies, pp. 707-713, Dec. 2000.
Modify life cycle stage and years to
obsolescence of primary attribute by
that of secondary attribute if required
CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Center
Obsolescence/Technology Insertion
University of Maryland
2002
2000
1996
(4M, February 1997)
1994
µ actual
µ forecast
1992
(1M, March 1991)
1990
1988
1986
0
(0.26M, May 1998)
10
20
30
Standard Deviation of Gaussian Fit to Sales Data, σ
Peak Sales Year, µ
1998
Trend
Equations for
DRAMs
(64M, May 2000)
0.0011
µ =1991.8M
(16M, March 1998)
4
3
40
50
60
70
-0.23
σ = 3.1M
DRAM Size (Mb)
2
1
0
0
CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Center
Obsolescence/Technology Insertion
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
DRAM Size (Mb)
University of Maryland
6
Secondary Attribute Example
(Bias Voltage Trends)
90%
85%
5V
3.3V
80%
Percentage IC Design Starts
70%
2.5V
>1.8V
70%
60%
60%
60%
55%
50%
50%
40%
40%
51%
40%
40%
35%
30%
30%
25%
20%
30%
27%
24%
20%
21%
20%
15%
15%
12%
10%
7%
0%
0%
1993
28%
0%
1994
3%
0%
1995
9%
7%
8%
12%
9%
2%
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Year
(Fairchild Semiconductor)
CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Center
Obsolescence/Technology Insertion
University of Maryland
Units shipped/ Market ($)
Life Cycle Phases: Exceptions
Normal Life Cycle
Revitalization
False start
Obsolescence
Revitalization
phase
Niche
Time
•
False starts: stall in part growth because of
−
−
−
−
−
•
•
introduction of a superior competing product
identification of a problem associated with a product
failure to reach critical mass that allows economies of scale
failed emergence of a compelling application for the product
Example: GaAs, a niche technology might soon become obsolete and be replaced by CMOS, which
requires less power and is cheaper to manufacture.
Niche: Products serve niche markets only
Revitalization: Product revitalization by defining new market segments and/or
product use
CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Center
Obsolescence/Technology Insertion
University of Maryland
7
DRAM Life Cycles From Trend Curves
(Skipped Generations)
9000
8000
256M
Skipped
generations
7000
128M
Units (in millions)
6000
5000
64M
4000
32M
3000
16M
8M
2000
4M
2M
1000
0
0.004M
1980
1982
0.256M
1984
1986
0.512M
1988
1M
1990
1992
1994
1996
Year
CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Center
Obsolescence/Technology Insertion
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
University of Maryland
A Word About ASIC Obsolescence …
ASICs differ from off-the-shelf parts in several ways, however,
the critical differentiator from an obsolescence viewpoint is that
for ASICs the customer has some level of ownership over the
design information associated with the part.
For an ASIC, the sales curve could represent any one of the
following (or combinations of the following):
• Ability or willingness to fabricate the part.
• Ability or willingness to design the part. Loss of ability to design the part may
be due to loss of the required design tool support, loss of human expertise,
unwillingness to commit design expertise (too busy designing for newer
technologies), or lack of availability of the appropriate intellectual property (IP)
– IP obsolescence.
• Lapsing of legal rights to use the necessary IP. The ASIC supplier has the
technical capability but no longer has the necessary legal rights to design or
fabricate the part.
CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Center
Obsolescence/Technology Insertion
University of Maryland
8
Using Custom ASICs to Avoid
Obsolescence Problems?
Custom ASICs have been used by many companies, in an attempt
to mitigate hardware obsolescence problems:
Advantages:
• You have some ownership over the IC design (IP, mask set, etc.), and therefore,
have some level of control over its obsolescence, theoretically, a custom ASIC
never needs to become obsolete
• Very effective way to avoid software obsolescence
Disadvantages:
• Owning the mask set doesn’t automatically mean that you can find someone to
fabricate the chip for you. You must keep up with:
– Fabricator wafer size changes
Re-qualification?
– Fabricator process changes
• Moving from one ASIC vendor to another may require re-qualification
• You are not immune to technology obsolescence
• Once you are on the ASIC highway, its hard to get off
CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Center
Obsolescence/Technology Insertion
University of Maryland
Using Programmable Gate Arrays to Avoid
Obsolescence Problems?
Programmable Gate Arrays (PGAs), for some applications, may
provide ASIC advantages without all the custom ASIC
disadvantages:
Advantages:
• You have some ownership over the custom programming of the gate array
• You need not worry as much about fabricator wafer size and process changes
Disadvantages:
• Programmable gate arrays may not be able fulfill your application needs or
performance requirements
• You are still not immune to technology obsolescence
• Once you are on the ASIC highway, its hard to get off (but its easier to get off
PGAs than to get off custom ASICs)
CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Center
Obsolescence/Technology Insertion
University of Maryland
9
Obsolescence Prediction Tool (SHAI)
• Predicts when electronic components are likely to become outmoded and their
production discontinued.
• Obsolescence of a part is predicted by first querying a parts database to identify
key attributes of the part or family of parts, such as its device technology, capacity,
and type of packaging. These attributes are then used to query a technology trends
forecast database to retrieve generic obsolescence predictors of the part or part
family, based on expert opinions. These generic predictors are then fed into a
prediction algorithm to derive an obsolescence prediction classification.
• The predictor’s ability is derived from the use of a range of artificial intelligence
techniques including case-based reasoning, object-oriented programming, and
knowledge engineering.
• It will operate in either an Internet environment via a web-based client server
architecture, or in a stand alone environment on a single user’s desktop computer.
• The technology used in this project also be used for any non-electronic
components subject to discontinuance due to rapid technical change.
(http://www.shai.com)
CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Center
Obsolescence/Technology Insertion
University of Maryland
MTI Obsolescence Forecasting
•
•
•
•
•
Manufacturing Technology Incorporated (MTI) provides obsolescence
prediction information to customers.
MTI uses proprietary market (α) and technology (β) factors to predict
demise of families and technology/market groups (devices with like
market and technology factors).
The proprietary (α, β) factors are pre-determined from “industry
knowledge”.
Using (α, β) factors, MTI calculates a "safe" usage window for a device
family.
The MTI algorithm does not use life cycle curves, and hence is unable to
determine life cycle stage for the technology/market family.
(http://www.mtifwb.com/static/obsolescence.shtml)
CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Center
Obsolescence/Technology Insertion
University of Maryland
10
Total Parts Plus
•
•
•
•
•
Provides PCN and product discontinuance tracking and
notification
Substitute part information
Aftermarket supplier information
Die manufacturer information
Projects production status of your part, projected availability
in years, and End of Life (EOL) status
(http://www.totalpartsplus.com/products.htm)
CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Center
Obsolescence/Technology Insertion
University of Maryland
Databases and Alert Services
There are a growing number of companies and organizations providing
databases and databases connected to alert services that archive
information on parts that have been discontinued. Examples
include:
•
•
•
•
•
PCNAlert.com (Cogent) – delivers manufacturer-specific PCN and
PDN information via email
GIDEP (Government-Industry Data Exchange Program) –
government-wide central system for sharing fact-based technical
information (US and Canada)
COMET (Collaborative Obsolescence Management and Evaluation
Tool) – provides a hierarchical summary of current obsolescence or
DMS status of electronic systems
Arrow Risk Manager (www.arrow.com)
Total Parts Plus (http://www.totalpartsplus.com/products.htm)
CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Center
Obsolescence/Technology Insertion
University of Maryland
11
Data Sources: Market Research Organizations
•
•
•
•
•
Instat, www.instat.com
Dataquest, www.dataquest.com
Semico, www.semico.com
IC Insights, www.icinsights.com
Integrated Circuit Engineering Corporation
(ICE), www.ice-corp.com
• World Semiconductor Trade Society (WSTS)
• Electronic Trend Publications
CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Center
Obsolescence/Technology Insertion
University of Maryland
A Comment on Obsolescence Forecasting
• In the kinetic theory of gases, each atom or molecule in a gas moves
randomly so that the position or velocity of any one of them cannot be known.
Nevertheless, using statistics, the rules governing their overall behavior can be
worked out with great precision.
• The forecasted window of obsolescence for an individual part in a specific
application is not an accurate predictive exercise on which it makes sense to
consider confidence levels or risks. The value of the obsolescence forecast is
in the long-term aggregate picture.
• In other words, forecasting the obsolescence of many parts in many products
and using those forecasts to adjust bills of materials, and optimize design and
sustainment is advantageous. The value of a single obsolescence forecast on a
single product is hit-or-miss and is most likely much smaller than the
aggregate value of forecasting for every product.
• Individual part obsolescence forecasts are noise, value is in forecasting for
many parts over many products.
CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Center
Obsolescence/Technology Insertion
University of Maryland
12