Caribbean Regional Headquarters
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Balmoral Gap
Christ Church
Barbados
West Indies
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Betteshanger Business Park
Deal
Kent CT14 0LX
United Kingdom
Tel: +44 (0) 1304 619 929
[email protected] ~ www.caribsave.org
Protecting and enhancing the livelihoods, environments and economies of the Caribbean Basin
THE CARIBSAVE CLIMATE CHANGE RISK ATLAS
(CCCRA)
Climate Change Risk Profile for
The Bahamas
Prepared by The CARIBSAVE Partnership with funding from
UKaid from the Department for International Development (DFID) and the
Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID)
March 2012
Caribbean Climate Change & Livelihoods: A sectoral approach to vulnerability and resilience
Water, Energy, Biodiversity, Tourism, Agriculture, Human Health, Infrastructure and Settlement, Gender, Comprehensive Disaster Management
A Not-For-Profit Company
TABLE OF CONTENTS
LIST OF FIGURES ..................................................................................................................................... V
LIST OF TABLES ...................................................................................................................................... VI
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS.......................................................................................................................... IX
PROJECT BACKGROUND AND APPROACH ................................................................................................ X
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ............................................................................................. XIII
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.......................................................................................................................... XVI
1.
GLOBAL AND REGIONAL CONTEXT ................................................................................................. 1
1.1.
2.
3.
Climate change impacts on tourism.............................................................................................. 3
NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES ......................................................................................................... 4
2.1.
Geography and climate ................................................................................................................. 4
2.2.
Socio-economic profile.................................................................................................................. 5
2.3.
Importance of tourism to the national economy.......................................................................... 6
CLIMATE MODELLING ................................................................................................................... 8
3.1.
Introduction to Climate Modelling Results ................................................................................... 8
3.2.
Temperature ................................................................................................................................. 9
3.3.
Precipitation ................................................................................................................................ 11
3.4.
Wind Speed ................................................................................................................................. 13
3.5.
Relative Humidity ........................................................................................................................ 15
3.6.
Sunshine Hours ........................................................................................................................... 16
3.7.
Sea Surface Temperatures .......................................................................................................... 18
3.8.
Temperature Extremes ............................................................................................................... 18
3.9.
Rainfall Extremes......................................................................................................................... 20
3.10. Hurricanes and Tropical Storms .................................................................................................. 22
3.11. Sea Level Rise .............................................................................................................................. 23
3.12. Storm Surge ................................................................................................................................ 24
4.
VULNERABILITY AND IMPACTS PROFILE FOR THE BAHAMAS ......................................................... 26
4.1.
4.2.
4.3.
Water Quality and Availability .................................................................................................... 27
4.1.1.
Background............................................................................................................. 27
4.1.2.
Vulnerability of water sector to climate change .................................................... 30
Energy Supply and Distribution ................................................................................................... 34
4.2.1.
Background............................................................................................................. 34
4.2.2.
Trends in energy use in Bahamas ........................................................................... 39
4.2.3.
Vulnerability of the energy sector to climate change ............................................ 41
Agriculture and Food Security ..................................................................................................... 49
4.3.1.
Background............................................................................................................. 49
4.3.2.
The importance of agriculture to national development ...................................... 49
i
4.4.
4.5.
4.6.
4.7.
4.8.
5.
4.3.3.
An analysis of the agricultural sector in The Bahamas........................................... 49
4.3.4.
Women and youth in Bahamian agriculture .......................................................... 51
4.3.5.
Climate change related issues and agricultural vulnerability in Bahamas ............. 51
4.3.6.
Vulnerability enhancing factors: agriculture, land use and soil degradation
in Bahamas ............................................................................................................. 52
4.3.7.
Social vulnerability of agricultural communities in The Bahamas ......................... 53
4.3.8.
Economic vulnerability: climate change & agricultural outputs in Bahamas......... 54
Human health.............................................................................................................................. 56
4.4.1.
Background............................................................................................................. 56
4.4.2.
Direct impacts ........................................................................................................ 57
4.4.3.
Indirect impacts ...................................................................................................... 58
Marine and Terrestrial Biodiversity and Fisheries ...................................................................... 65
4.5.1.
Background............................................................................................................. 65
4.5.2.
Vulnerability of biodiversity and fisheries to climate change ................................ 74
Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Impacts on Coastal Infrastructure and Settlements ................ 79
4.6.1.
Background............................................................................................................. 79
4.6.2.
Vulnerability of Infrastructure and Settlements to Climate Change...................... 79
Comprehensive Natural Disaster Management.......................................................................... 84
4.7.1.
History of disaster management globally .............................................................. 84
4.7.2.
Natural hazards in the Caribbean and The Bahamas ............................................. 85
Community Livelihoods, Gender, Poverty and Development: the Case Study of the Abaco
Island Communities, The Bahamas ............................................................................................. 88
4.8.1.
Background............................................................................................................. 88
4.8.2.
Natural Resources and Community Livelihoods .................................................... 90
4.8.3.
Implications for Gender-Specific Vulnerability in the Abaco Islands ..................... 94
ADAPTIVE CAPACITY PROFILE FOR THE BAHAMAS ........................................................................ 96
5.1.
5.2.
5.3.
Water Quality and Availability .................................................................................................... 97
5.1.1.
Policy ...................................................................................................................... 97
5.1.2.
Management .......................................................................................................... 98
5.1.3.
Technology ............................................................................................................. 99
Energy Supply and Distribution ................................................................................................. 101
5.2.1.
Policy .................................................................................................................... 101
5.2.2.
Management ........................................................................................................ 102
5.2.3.
Technology ........................................................................................................... 105
Agriculture and Food Security ................................................................................................... 107
5.3.1.
Policy .................................................................................................................... 107
5.3.2.
Technology ........................................................................................................... 107
5.3.3.
Farmers’ Adaptation - Initiatives and Actions ...................................................... 108
ii
5.4.
5.5.
5.6.
5.7.
5.8.
6.
Human Health ........................................................................................................................... 110
5.4.1.
Policy .................................................................................................................... 110
5.4.2.
Management ........................................................................................................ 111
5.4.3.
Summary .............................................................................................................. 113
Marine and Terrestrial Biodiversity and Fisheries .................................................................... 115
5.5.1.
Policy .................................................................................................................... 115
5.5.2.
Management ........................................................................................................ 117
5.5.3.
Protected Areas .................................................................................................... 118
5.5.4.
Technology ........................................................................................................... 119
Sea Level Rise Impacts on Coastal Infrastructure and Settlements .......................................... 121
5.6.1.
Technology – HARD Engineering .......................................................................... 123
5.6.2.
Technology – SOFT Engineering ........................................................................... 123
5.6.3.
Policy .................................................................................................................... 123
Comprehensive Natural Disaster Management........................................................................ 125
5.7.1.
Management of natural hazards and disasters.................................................... 125
5.7.2.
Caribbean disaster management and climate change ......................................... 125
5.7.3.
Bahamas disaster management system ............................................................... 128
5.7.4.
Technology ........................................................................................................... 129
5.7.5.
Policy .................................................................................................................... 130
Community Livelihoods, Gender, Poverty and Development................................................... 132
5.8.1.
Household Surveys ............................................................................................... 132
5.8.2.
Demographic Profile of Respondents .................................................................. 132
5.8.3.
Household Form and Structure ............................................................................ 133
5.8.4.
Security and Social Protection.............................................................................. 140
5.8.5.
Asset Base............................................................................................................. 144
5.8.6.
Adaptation and mitigation strategies .................................................................. 157
RECOMMENDED STRATEGIES AND INITIAL ACTION PLAN ........................................................... 159
6.1.
Cross-Cutting Actions ................................................................................................................ 159
6.1.1.
Implementing and Strengthening Data Collection, Monitoring and
Evaluation Activities ............................................................................................. 159
6.1.2.
Mainstreaming Climate Change in Policy, Planning and Practice ........................ 161
6.1.3.
Building and Strengthening Information Sharing and Communication
Systems and Networks ......................................................................................... 163
6.1.4.
Climate Change Education and Awareness .......................................................... 164
6.2.
Water Quality and Availability .................................................................................................. 165
6.3.
Energy Supply and Distribution ................................................................................................. 166
6.4.
Agriculture and Food Security ................................................................................................... 167
6.5.
Human Health ........................................................................................................................... 168
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7.
6.6.
Marine and Terrestrial Biodiversity and Fisheries .................................................................... 169
6.7.
Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Impacts on Coastal Infrastructure and Settlements .............. 171
6.8.
Comprehensive Natural Disaster Management........................................................................ 172
6.9.
Community Livelihoods, Gender, Poverty and Development................................................... 173
CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................................ 175
7.1.
Climate Modelling ..................................................................................................................... 175
7.2.
Water Quality and Availability ................................................................................................. 175
7.3.
Energy Supply and Distribution ................................................................................................. 176
7.4.
Agriculture and Food Security ................................................................................................... 177
7.5.
Human Health ........................................................................................................................... 177
7.6.
Marine and Terrestrial Biodiversity and Fisheries .................................................................... 178
7.7.
Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Impacts on Coastal Infrastructure and Settlements .............. 178
7.8.
Comprehensive Natural Disaster Management........................................................................ 179
7.9.
Community Livelihoods, Gender, Poverty and Development................................................... 180
REFERENCES....................................................................................................................................... 181
iv
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 4.1.1: Sources of Freshwater for New Providence in millions of gallons of water per day ................. 27
Figure 4.2.1: Global CO2 emission pathways versus unrestricted tourism emissions growth ....................... 35
Figure 4.2.2: Per capita emissions of CO2 in selected countries in the Caribbean, 2005 ............................... 36
Figure 4.2.3: Crude oil prices 1869-2009......................................................................................................... 42
Figure 4.2.4: Fuel costs as part of worldwide operating cost.......................................................................... 43
Figure 4.2.5: Vulnerability of selected islands, measured as eco-efficiency and revenue share .................... 46
Figure 4.3.1: Bahamas estimated value of Hurricane damage to crops, livestock and fisheries .................... 52
Figure 4.5.1: Caribbean pine forest in Abaco, Bahamas ................................................................................. 67
Figure 4.5.2: Extant forests and mangroves of The Bahamas ......................................................................... 68
Figure 4.5.3: Beach erosion exacerbated by the invasive Casuarina tree ....................................................... 70
Figure 4.5.4: Location of coral reefs in The Bahamas...................................................................................... 71
Figure 4.5.5: Beach erosion along Cabbage Beach .......................................................................................... 76
Figure 4.6.1: High Resolution Coastal Profile Surveying with GPS .................................................................. 81
Figure 4.6.2: GPS Surveying Transects on Harbour Island............................................................................... 82
Figure 4.6.3: Sea Level Rise Vulnerability on Harbour Island – Zone A and B ................................................. 83
Figure 4.8.1: Map of The Bahamas showing location of Abaco ...................................................................... 88
Figure 4.8.2: Workshop group mapping exercise............................................................................................ 89
Figure 5.2.1: Eco-efficiencies of different source markets, Amsterdam ....................................................... 104
Figure 5.5.1: Map showing existing Marine Parks and Proposed Marine Reserve Areas ............................. 119
Figure 5.7.1: Relationship of the Disaster Management System and Society .............................................. 125
Figure 5.8.1: Relationship Status of Respondents ......................................................................................... 134
Figure 5.8.2: Sample Distribution by Average Monthly Earnings .................................................................. 136
Figure 5.8.3: Household Income Generating Activity.................................................................................... 138
Figure 5.8.4: Sample Distribution by Financial Responsibility for Household ............................................... 139
Figure 5.8.5: Sample Distribution by Financial Responsibility for Household ............................................... 140
Figure 5.8.6: Financial Security: Job Loss or Natural Disaster ....................................................................... 142
Figure 5.8.7: Sample Distribution by Ownership of Assets: Access to Water ............................................... 146
Figure 5.8.8: Graph of Involvement in Agriculture ........................................................................................ 150
Figure 5.8.9: Perceptions of Household and Community Risk of Climate Related Events ............................ 156
v
LIST OF TABLES
Table 2.2.1: Gross Domestic Product for Bahamas, 2000 - 2009 ...................................................................... 5
Table 2.3.1: Visitor Arrivals to Bahamas 1990 - 2009........................................................................................ 6
Table 2.3.2: Estimated Tourist Expenditure (millions US $) .............................................................................. 7
Table 3.1.1: Earliest and latest years respectively at which the threshold temperatures are exceeded
in the 41 projections* ............................................................................................................................. 9
Table 3.2.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in temperature for The Bahamas. ................................ 10
Table 3.2.2: GCM & RCM projected changes in temperature for The Bahamas under the A2 scenario. ....... 10
Table 3.3.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in precipitation for The Bahamas. ................................ 11
Table 3.3.2: GCM & RCM projected changes in precipitation for The Bahamas under the A2 scenario. ....... 12
Table 3.3.3: Observed and GCM projected changes in precipitation (%) for The Bahamas. .......................... 12
Table 3.3.4: GCM & RCM projected changes in precipitation (%) for The Bahamas under the A2
scenario. ................................................................................................................................................ 13
Table 3.4.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in wind speed for The Bahamas.................................... 14
Table 3.4.2: GCM & RCM projected changes in wind speed for The Bahamas under the A2 scenario. ......... 14
Table 3.5.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in relative humidity for The Bahamas........................... 15
Table 3.5.2: GCM and RCM projected changes relative humidity for The Bahamas under the A2
scenario. ................................................................................................................................................ 16
Table 3.6.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in sunshine hours for The Bahamas.............................. 17
Table 3.6.2: GCM and RCM projected changes sunshine hours for The Bahamas under the A2
scenario. ................................................................................................................................................ 17
Table 3.7.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in sea surface temperature for The Bahamas. ............. 18
Table 3.8.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in temperature extremes for The Bahamas. ................ 19
Table 3.9.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in rainfall extremes for The Bahamas. .......................... 21
Table 3.10.1: Changes in Near-storm rainfall and wind intensity associated with Tropical storms in
under global warming scenarios. .......................................................................................................... 23
Table 3.11.1: Sea level rise rates at observation stations surrounding the Caribbean Basin ......................... 24
Table 3.11.2: Projected increases in sea level rise from the IPCC AR4 ........................................................... 24
Table 4.1.1: Comparison of Water Availability and Population for various Islands in The Bahamas*............ 28
Table 4.1.2: Water Charges in The Bahamas ................................................................................................... 30
Table 4.2.1: Fuel imports into The Bahamas in thousands of barrels of energy, 1990-1994 ......................... 37
Table 4.2.2: Estimated emissions of CO2 from fossil fuel energy use in kt, 1990 & 1994 .............................. 37
Table 4.2.3: CO2 emissions from international bunkering in The Bahamas (kt) ............................................. 37
Table 4.2.4: Assessment of CO2-emissions from tourism in Bahamas, data for various years ....................... 38
vi
Table 4.2.5: UK air passenger duty as of 1 November 2011 ........................................................................... 44
Table 4.3.1: Imports by Commodity Group 1999 and 2003 ‐ 2007 (B $'000) ................................................. 50
Table 4.3.2: Value of Imports of Selected Crops ............................................................................................. 51
Table 4.4.1: Selected statistics relevant to the Health Sector of The Bahamas .............................................. 56
Table 4.4.2: Primarily affected population in The Bahamas after Hurricane Frances (Aug 31 st – 5th
Sept) and Hurricane Jeanne (Sept 25th) ................................................................................................ 57
Table 4.5.1: Important reef regions in The Bahamas ...................................................................................... 71
Table 4.5.2: Summary table of biodiversity in Bahamas and related anthropogenic and climate
change threats ...................................................................................................................................... 78
Table 4.6.1: Impacts associated with 1m and 2m SLR and 50m and 100m beach erosion in The
Bahamas ................................................................................................................................................ 80
Table 4.6.2: Eleuthera and Harbour Island Beach Resources at Risk to Sea Level Rise .................................. 82
Table 4.7.1: Types of Hazards in the Caribbean Basin..................................................................................... 85
Table 4.7.2: Summary of Recent Tropical Storm and Hurricane Impacts ....................................................... 87
Table 5.2.1: Average weighted emissions per tourist by country and main market, 2004 .......................... 103
Table 5.2.2: Arrivals to emissions ratios ........................................................................................................ 103
Table 5.4.1: Total expenditure on Health as a % of GDP between 1995 and 2005 ...................................... 111
Table 5.4.2: Summary of Capital Development Expenditure in the Ministry of Health and Public
Hospitals Authority 2007 – 2011......................................................................................................... 111
Table 5.4.3: Summary of Cost of Impacts on The Bahamas Health Sector after Hurricanes Jeanne and
Frances 113
Table 5.5.1: Biodiversity: Six Principles for Climate Change Adaptation ...................................................... 115
Table 5.5.2: International/regional agreements to which The Bahamas is party ......................................... 116
Table 5.5.3: Legislation on environmental protection in Bahamas ............................................................... 117
Table 5.6.1: Summary of Adaptation Policies to reduce The Bahamas’ vulnerability to SLR and SLRinduced beach erosion ........................................................................................................................ 122
Table 5.7.1: Enhanced Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme Framework 2007-2012 ........... 127
Table 5.8.1: Length of Residency in Parish / Community .............................................................................. 132
Table 5.8.2: Age Distribution of Sample by Sex of Head of Household, N Values ........................................ 133
Table 5.8.3: Age Distribution of Sample by Sex of Head of Household, %Values ......................................... 133
Table 5.8.4: Relationship Status of Respondents .......................................................................................... 133
Table 5.8.5: Perception of Head ship of Household ...................................................................................... 134
Table 5.8.6: Family Size by Sex of Head of Household .................................................................................. 134
Table 5.8.7: Sample Distribution by Education and Training ........................................................................ 135
Table 5.8.8: Sample Distribution by Average Monthly Earnings, N Values ................................................... 135
Table 5.8.9: Sample Distribution by Average Monthly Earnings, % Values................................................... 135
vii
Table 5.8.10: Labour Market Participation: Involvement in Tourism Sector ................................................ 136
Table 5.8.11: Labour Market Participation: Involvement in Tourism AND Non-Tourism Sectors ................ 137
Table 5.8.12: Sample Distribution by Involvement in Income Generating Activity ...................................... 137
Table 5.8.13: Source of Food Supply ............................................................................................................. 141
Table 5.8.14: Adequacy of Food Supply ........................................................................................................ 141
Table 5.8.15: Sample Distribution by Access to Credit .................................................................................. 141
Table 5.8.16: Sample Distribution by Financial Security: Natural Disaster ................................................... 142
Table 5.8.17: Sample Distribution by Financial Security: Job Loss ................................................................ 143
Table 5.8.18: Sample Distribution by Social Protection Provisions ............................................................... 143
Table 5.8.19: Sample Distribution by Ownership of Assets: Capital Assets .................................................. 144
Table 5.8.20: Sample Distribution by Ownership of Assets: House Material................................................ 144
Table 5.8.21: Sample Distribution by Ownership of Assets: Appliances / Electronics .................................. 145
Table 5.8.22: Sample Distribution by Ownership of Assets: Transportation ................................................ 145
Table 5.8.23: Sample Distribution by Ownership of Assets: Access to Sanitation Conveniences ................. 145
Table 5.8.24: Sample Distribution by Ownership of Assets: Access to Garbage Collection .......................... 146
Table 5.8.25: Power and Decision Making .................................................................................................... 147
Table 5.8.26: Social Networks: Community Involvement ............................................................................. 147
Table 5.8.27: Social Networks: Community Involvement – Organisation Membership ............................... 147
Table 5.8.28: Social Networks: Support Systems .......................................................................................... 148
Table 5.8.29: Use and Importance of Natural Resources .............................................................................. 148
Table 5.8.30: Use and Importance of Natural Resources, by Sex of Respondent ......................................... 149
Table 5.8.31: Involvement in Agriculture ...................................................................................................... 150
Table 5.8.32: Involvement in Agriculture: Irrigation Method ....................................................................... 151
Table 5.8.33: Involvement in Agriculture: Knowledge of Water Conflict...................................................... 151
Table 5.8.34: Knowledge of Climate Related Events ..................................................................................... 152
Table 5.8.35: Knowledge of Appropriate Response to Climate Related Events............................................ 153
Table 5.8.36: Appropriate Response to Climate Related Events ................................................................... 154
Table 5.8.37: Perceived Level of Risk of Climate Related Events: Household ............................................... 155
Table 5.8.38: Level of Impact from Hurricanes and Flooding on Respondents’ Livelihoods (2006-2011) .... 155
Table 5.8.39: Perceptions of Household and Community Risk of Climate Related Events ........................... 156
Table 5.8.40: Perceived Level of Risk of Climate Related Events: Community ............................................. 157
Table 5.8.41: Adaptation Strategies Employed ............................................................................................. 158
Table 5.8.42: Perceptions of Risk to Community Economic Livelihoods ....................................................... 158
viii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The CARIBSAVE Partnership wishes to thank all the people across The Bahamas and in the Caribbean who
have contributed to this National Risk Profile and to the Risk Atlas as a whole. There have been a multitude
of people who have provided their time, assistance, information and resources to making the Risk Atlas
effective and successful, so many people that it makes it impossible to mention all of them here on this
page. We would, therefore, like to thank some of the key people and organisations here that have made
the Risk Atlas and this National Profile possible. The CARIBSAVE Partnership wishes to thank The Bahamas
Ministry of Tourism for its support and assistance, in particular, the Honourable Vanderpool Wallace,
Minister of Tourism; and Mr. Earlston McPhee, Director of Sustainable Tourism.
We wish to express great thanks to the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre, the Caribbean
Tourism Organisation and the Association of Caribbean States for their collaboration and support.
Additionally, we wish to thank the following institutions:










The Climate Studies Group, Department of Physics, University of the West Indies, Mona Campus
The Meteorological Institute of the Republic of Cuba (INSMET)
The Anton de Kom University of Suriname
The University of Waterloo
The Institute for Gender and Development Studies, University of the West Indies, Mona Campus
The Health Research Resource Unit, Faculty of Medical Science, University of the West Indies,
Mona Campus
The Bahamas Environment, Science and Technology (BEST) Commission
The Bahamas Friends of the Environment
The Ministry of Tourism, Abaco
Albury’s Ferry Service
The CARIBSAVE Partnership would also like to extend its thanks to the Oxford University Centre for the
Environment. Finally, last and by no means least, many thanks to the vision and commitment of the UK
Department for International Development (DFID) and the Australian Agency for International
Development (AusAID) for funding the CARIBSAVE Climate Change Risk Atlas.
This publication is to be cited as follows:
Simpson, M. C., Clarke, J. F., Scott, D. J., New, M., Karmalkar, A., Day, O. J., Taylor, M., Gossling, S., Wilson,
M., Chadee, D., Stager, H., Waithe, R., Stewart, A., Georges, J., Hutchinson, N., Fields, N., Sim, R., Rutty, M.,
Matthews, L., and Charles, S. (2012). CARIBSAVE Climate Change Risk Atlas (CCCRA) - The Bahamas. DFID,
AusAID and The CARIBSAVE Partnership, Barbados, West Indies.
ix
PROJECT BACKGROUND AND APPROACH
Contribution to climate change knowledge and understanding
Climate change is a serious and substantial threat to the economies of Caribbean nations, the livelihoods of
communities and the environments and infrastructure across the region. The CARIBSAVE Climate Change
Risk Atlas (CCCRA) Phase I, funded by the UK Department for International Development (DFID/UKaid) and
the Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID), was conducted from 2009 – 2011 and
successfully used evidence-based, inter-sectoral approaches to examine climate change risks,
vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities; and develop pragmatic response strategies to reduce vulnerability
and enhance resilience in 15 countries across the Caribbean (Anguilla, Antigua & Barbuda, The Bahamas,
Barbados, Belize, Dominica, The Dominican Republic, Grenada, Jamaica, Nevis, Saint Lucia, St. Kitts, St.
Vincent & the Grenadines, Suriname and the Turks & Caicos Islands).
The primary basis of the CCCRA work is the detailed climate modelling projections done for each country
under three scenarios: A2, A1B and B1. Climate models have demonstrable skill in reproducing the large
scale characteristics of the global climate dynamics; and a combination of multiple Global Climate Model
(GCM) and downscaled Regional Climate Model (RCM) projections was used in the investigation of climatic
changes for all 15 countries. RCMs simulate the climate at a finer spatial scale over a small area, like a
country, acting to ‘downscale’ the GCM projections and provide a better physical representation of the
local climate of that area. As such, changes in the dynamic climate processes at a national or community
scale can be projected.
SRES storylines and scenario families used for calculating future greenhouse gas and other pollutant emissions
Storyline and
scenario family
A2
A1B
B1
Description
A very heterogeneous world; self reliance; preservation of local identities; continuously
increasing global population; economic growth is regionally oriented and per capita
economic growth and technological change are slower than in other storylines.
The A1 storyline and scenario family describes a future world of very rapid economic growth,
global population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, and the rapid
introduction of new and more efficient technologies. The three A1 groups are distinguished
by their technological emphasis. A1B is balanced across all sources - not relying too heavily
on one particular energy source, on the assumption that similar improvement rates apply to
all energy supply and end use technologies.
A convergent world with the same global population that peaks in mid-century and declines
thereafter, as in the A1 storyline, but with rapid changes in economic structures toward a
service and information economy, with reductions in material intensity, and the introduction
of clean and resource-efficient technologies. The emphasis is on global solutions to
economic, social, and environmental sustainability, including improved equity, but without
additional climate initiatives.
(Source: Adapted from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, 2000)
The CCCRA provides robust and meaningful new work in the key sectors and focal areas of: Community
Livelihoods, Gender, Poverty and Development; Agriculture and Food security; Energy; Water Quality and
Availability; Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Impacts on Coastal Infrastructure and Settlements;
Comprehensive Disaster Management; Human Health; and Marine and Terrestrial Biodiversity and
Fisheries. This work was conducted through the lens of the tourism sector; the most significant socioeconomic sector to the livelihoods, national economies and environments of the Caribbean and its' people.
x
The field work components of the research and CARIBSAVE’s commitment to institutional strengthening in
the Caribbean have helped to build capacity in a wide selection of ministries, academic institutions,
communities and other stakeholders in the areas of: climate modelling, gender and climate change, coastal
management methods and community resilience. Having been completed for 15 countries in the
Caribbean Basin, this work allows for inter-regional and cross-regional comparisons leading to lesson
learning and skills transfer.
A further very important aspect of the CCCRA is the democratisation of climate change science. This was
conducted through targeted awareness, tools (e.g. data visualisation, GIS imagery, animated projections
and short films), and participatory approaches (workshops and vulnerability mapping) to improve
stakeholder knowledge and understanding of what climate change means for them. Three short films, in
high-resolution format of broadcast quality, are some of the key outputs. These films are part of the
Partnerships for Resilience series and include: ‘Climate Change and Tourism’; ‘Caribbean Fish Sanctuaries’;
and ‘Living Shorelines’. They are available at www.youtube.com/Caribsave.
Project approach to enhancing resilience and building capacity to respond to climate change
across the Caribbean
Processes and outputs from the CCCRA bridge the gap between the public and private sectors and
communities; and their efforts to address both the physical and socio-economic impacts of climate change,
allowing them to better determine how current practices (which in fact are not isolated in one sector
alone) and capacities must be enhanced. The stages of the CCCRA country profile protocol (see Flow Chart
on the following page) are as follows: a) Climate Modelling and Data Analysis (including analysis of key ‘Tier
1’ climate variables linking the climate modelling to physical impacts and vulnerabilities) b) Physical Impacts
and Vulnerability Assessment c) Tourism and Related Sector Vulnerability Assessments (including
examination of the sectors of water, energy, agriculture, biodiversity, health, infrastructure and settlement,
and comprehensive disaster management) d) Development of Vulnerability Profile with stakeholders taking
account of socio-economic, livelihood and gender impacts (including evaluation of ‘Tier 2’ linking variables
and indicators such as coastal inundation) e) Adaptive Capacity Assessment and Profiling f) Development of
Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies and Policy Recommendations (action planning). The final stages
depicted in the flow chart focusing on the implementation of policies and strategies at
ministerial/government level and the implementation of actions at community level, using a communitybased adaptation approach, are proposed to be implemented as part of the forthcoming CCCRA process as
projects to be funded by other donors post the country profile stage.
The work of the CCCRA is consistent with the needs of Caribbean Small Island and Coastal Developing
States identified in the document, “Climate Change and the Caribbean: A Regional Framework for
Development Resilient to Climate Change (2009-2015)”, published by the Caribbean Community Climate
Change Centre (CCCCC); and supports each of the key strategies outlined in the framework’s Regional
Implementation Plan.
xi
CCCRA Profiling Flow Chart
The CCCRA continues to provide assistance to the governments, communities and the private sector of the
Caribbean at the local destination level and at national level through its primary outputs for each of the 15
participating countries: National Climate Change Risk Profiles; Summary Documents; and high-resolution
maps showing sea level rise and storm surge projections under various scenarios for vulnerable coastal
areas. It is anticipated that this approach will be replicated in other destinations and countries across the
Caribbean Basin.
The CCCRA explored recent and future changes in climate in each of the 15 countries using a combination
of observations and climate model projections. Despite the limitations that exist with regards to climate
modelling and the attribution of present conditions to climate change, this information provides very useful
indications of the changes in the characteristics of climate and impacts on socio-economic sectors.
Consequently, decision makers should adopt a precautionary approach and ensure that measures are taken
to increase the resilience of economies, businesses and communities to climate-related hazards.
This report was created through an extensive desk research, participatory workshops, fieldwork, surveys
and analyses with a wide range of public and private sector, and local stakeholders over 18 months.
xii
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS
AOSIS ------------ Alliance of Small Island States
AR4 --------------- Fourth Assessment Report
BAIC -------------- Bahamas Agriculture Industrial Corporation
BAPA ------------- Bahamas Agriculture Production Association
BAU -------------- Business as usual
BEST-------------- Bahamas Environmental, Science and Technology Commission
BIS --------------- Bahamas Information Services
BNGIS ----------- Bahamas National Geographic Information Systems Centre
BNT -------------- Bahamas National Trust
BREEF ------------ Bahamas Reef and Environmental Education Foundation
CAD -------------- Caribbean Application Document
CARDI ------------ Caribbean Agriculture Research and Development Institute
CAREC ---------- Caribbean Epidemiology Centre
CARIB-HYCOS - Caribbean Basin Hydro-geological Cycle Observing System
CARICOM ------- Caribbean Community
CBD -------------- Convention on Biological Diversity
CCCCC ----------- Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre
CCCRA ----------- CARIBSAVE Climate Change Risk Atlas
CCRIF ------------ Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility
CDB -------------- Caribbean Development Bank
CDC -------------- Centre for Disease Control and Prevention
CDEMA ---------- Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency
CDM ------------- Clean Development Mechanism (in the context of Energy/Emissions)
CDM ------------- Comprehensive Disaster Management
CEHI -------------- Caribbean Environmental Health Institute
CEMP ------------ Comprehensive Emergency Management Plan
CFP -------------- Ciguatera Fish Poisoning
CIMH------------- Caribbean Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology
CITES ------------- Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species
COP -------------- Conference of Parties
CRFM ------------ Caribbean Regional Fisheries Mechanism
CRI ---------------- Climate Risk Index
CRID-------------- Regional Disaster Center – Latin America and the Caribbean
CROSQ----------- Caribbean Regional Organisation for Standards and Quality
CSGM ------------ Climate Studies Group Mona
CTO -------------- Caribbean Tourism Organization
CUBiC ------------ Caribbean Uniform Building Code
DANA ------------ Damage and Needs Assessment
DFID-------------- Department for International Development
DMC ------------- Disaster Management Committee
DOS -------------- Department of Statistics
DRM ------------- Disaster Risk Management
DRR -------------- Disaster Risk Reduction
ECE --------------- Energy Conservation and Efficiency
ECLAC------------ Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean
EEZ --------------- Exclusive Economic Zone
EIA ---------------- Environmental Impact Assessment
EM-DAT --------- The International Disaster Database
ENSO------------- El Niño Southern Oscillation
EOC -------------- Emergency Operations Centre
ESF --------------- Emergency Support Function
xiii
EU ETS ----------- European Union Emissions Trading System
EU ---------------- European Union
EWS -------------- Early Warning System
FAO -------------- Food and Agriculture Organization
FDI ---------------- Foreign Direct Investment
GCM ------------- Global Circulation Model
GCP -------------- Ground Control Point
GDEM------------ Global Digital Elevation Model
GDP -------------- Gross Domestic Product
GEF --------------- Global Environment Fund
GHG -------------- Greenhouse Gas
GIS---------------- Geographic Information System
GOB ------------- Government of The Bahamas
GPS --------------- Global Positioning System
GRAD ------------ Gladstone Road Agricultural Centre
GRAPHIC ------- Groundwater Resources Assessment under the Pressures of Humanity and
Climate Change
HAB -------------- Harmful Algal Blooms
HDI --------------- Human Development Index
HDR -------------- Human Development Report
HFA--------------- Hyogo Framework for Action
IAASTD ---------- International Association of Agriculture, Knowledge, Science and Technology for
Development
IAMAT ---------- International for Medical Assistance to Travellers
IATA -------------- International Air Transport Association
ICAO ------------- International Civil Aviation Organisation
ICC ---------------- International Code Council
ICOADS ---------- International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set
ICS ---------------- Incident Command System
ICT ---------------- Information and Communication Technologies
ICZM ------------- Inter-Coastal Zone Management
IDB --------------- Inter-American Development Bank
IEA ---------------- International Energy Agency
IFRC -------------- International Federation of Red Cross
IICA --------------- Inter-American Institute for Cooperation on Agriculture
IMF --------------- International Monetary Fund
INSMET---------- Meteorological Institute of the Republic of Cuba
IPCC -------------- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IPM --------------- Integrated Pest Management
IPPM ------------- Integrated Production and Protection Management
ISCCP ------------ International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project
ISDR -------------- International Strategy for Disaster Reduction
ITCZ -------------- Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone
IUCN ------------- International Union for Conservation of Nature
IUU --------------- Illegal Unregulated Unreported
IVM--------------- Integrated Vector Management
JJA ---------------- Seasonal period of June, July, August
LGPD ------------- Livelihoods, Gender, Poverty and Development
LUPAP ----------- Land Use Policy and Administration Project
MACC ------------ Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change Project
MAM ------------ Seasonal period of March, April, May
MDGs ------------ Millennium Development Goals
MEAs ------------ Multilateral Environmental Agreements
MOF ------------- Ministry of Finance
xiv
MOPWU -------- Ministry of Public Works and Utilities
MPA-------------- Marine Protected Area
NASA------------- National Aeronautics and Space Administration
NBSAP ----------- National Biodiversity Strategic Action Plan
NCCC ------------- National Climate Change Committee
NEMA------------ National Emergency Management Agency
NEMAP --------- National Environmental Management Action Plan
NGOs ------------ Non-Governmental Organisations
NHIA ------------- National Hazard Impact Assessment
NOAA ------------ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
OAS -------------- Organization of American States
PA ---------------- Protected Areas
PAHO ----------- Pan American Health Organization
PKM -------------- Passenger kilometres
PVC --------------- Poly-vinyl Chloride
RCM ------------- Regional Climate Model
RE----------------- Renewable Energy
RECC ------------- Review of the Economics of Climate Change
REM -------------- Riley Encased Methodology
RH ---------------- Relative Humidity
RNAT------------- Regional Needs Assessment Team
ROI --------------- Return on Investment
RWH ------------- Rainwater Harvesting
RWSL ------------ Rural Water Supply Limited
SEDU ------------ Sustainable Economic Development Unit
SIDS -------------- Small Island Developing States
SLR --------------- Sea Level Rise
SON -------------- Seasonal period of September, October, November
SST --------------- Sea Surface Temperature
TIN --------------- Triangular Irregular Network
UKERC ----------- UK Energy Research Centre
UN Women ---- UN Entity for Gender Equality and the Empowerment of Women
UN ---------------- United Nations
UNCCD ---------- United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification
UNDP ----------- United Nations Development Programme
UNEP ------------ United Nations Environment Programme
UNESCO -------- United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization
UNFCCC --------- United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
UNIFEM --------- United Nations Fund for Women
UNSD ------------ United Nations Statics Division
UNWTO --------- United Nations World Tourism Organisation
USACE ----------- United States Army Corps of Engineers
USAID ------------ United States for International Development
UWI -------------- University of the West Indies
VAT --------------- Value Added Tax
WCMC ----------- World Conservation Monitoring Centre
WDPA ----------- World Database of Protected Areas
WEF -------------- World Economic Forum
WHO ------------- World Health Organization
WSC ------------- Water and Sewerage Corporation
WTO ------------- World Tourism Organization
WTTC ------------ World Travel and Tourism Council
xv
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
A practical evidence-based approach to
building resilience and capacity to
address the challenges of climate
change in the Caribbean
Climate change is a serious and substantial threat to
the economies of Caribbean nations, the livelihoods
of communities and the environments and
infrastructure across the region. The CARIBSAVE
Climate Change Risk Atlas (CCCRA) Phase I, funded
by the UK Department for International
Development (DFID/UKaid) and the Australian
Agency for International Development (AusAID), was
conducted from 2009 – 2011 and successfully used
evidence-based, inter-sectoral approaches to
examine climate change risks, vulnerabilities and
adaptive capacities; and develop pragmatic response
strategies to reduce vulnerability and enhance
resilience in 15 countries across the Caribbean
(Anguilla, Antigua & Barbuda, The Bahamas,
Barbados, Belize, Dominica, The Dominican Republic,
Grenada, Jamaica, Nevis, Saint Lucia, St. Kitts, St.
Vincent & the Grenadines, Suriname and the Turks &
Caicos Islands).
The CCCRA provides robust and meaningful new
work in the key sectors and focal areas of:
Community Livelihoods, Gender, Poverty and
Development; Agriculture and Food security; Energy;
Water Quality and Availability; Sea Level Rise and
Storm Surge Impacts on Coastal Infrastructure and
Settlements; Comprehensive Disaster Management;
Human Health; and Marine and Terrestrial
Biodiversity and Fisheries. This work was conducted
through the lens of the tourism sector; the most
significant socio-economic sector to the livelihoods,
national economies and environments of the
Caribbean and its' people.
xvi
SELECTED POLICY POINTS
 Regional Climate Models, downscaled to
national level in the Risk Atlas, have provided
projections for Caribbean SIDS and coastal
states with enough confidence to support
decision-making for immediate adaptive action.
 Planned adaptation must be an absolute
priority. New science and observations should
be incorporated into existing sustainable
development efforts.
 Economic
investment
and
livelihoods,
particularly those related to tourism, in the
coastal zone of Caribbean countries are at risk
from sea level rise and storm surge impacts.
These risks can encourage innovative
alternatives to the way of doing business and
mainstreaming of disaster risk reduction across
many areas of policy and practice.
 Climate change adaptation will come at a cost
but the financial and human costs of inaction
will be much greater.
 Tourism is the main economic driver in the
Caribbean. Primary and secondary climate
change impacts on this sector must both be
considered seriously. Climate change is
affecting related sectors such as health,
agriculture, biodiversity and water resources
that in turn impact on tourism resources and
revenue in ways that are comparable to direct
impacts on tourism alone.
 Continued learning is a necessary part of
adaptation and building resilience and capacity.
There are many areas in which action can and
must be taken immediately.
 Learning from past experiences and applying
new knowledge is essential in order to avoid
maladaptation and further losses.
Overview of Climate Change Issues in The Bahamas
The islands of the Bahamas are already experiencing some of the effects of climate variability and change
through damage from severe weather systems and other extreme events, as well as more subtle changes in
temperature and rainfall patterns.
Detailed climate modelling projections for the Bahamas predict:




an increase in average atmospheric temperature;
reduced average annual rainfall;
increased Sea Surface Temperatures (SST); and
the potential for an increase in the intensity of tropical storms.
And the extent of such changes is expected to be worse than what is being experienced now.
To capture local experiences and observations; and to determine the risks to coastal properties and
infrastructure, selected sites were extensively assessed. Primary data were collected and analysed to:
1. assess the vulnerability of the livelihoods of community residents in the Abacos and the
surrounding Cays to climate change; and
2. project sea level rise and storm surge impacts on beaches on the island of Eleuthera and Harbour
Island.
The sites were selected by national stakeholders and represent areas of the country which are important to
the tourism sector and the economy as a whole, and are already experiencing adverse impacts from
climate-related events.
Vulnerable community livelihoods




Vulnerable coastlines

Tourism is the mainstay of the local
economy in the Abacos.
The settlements in Abaco are typically
located in very low-lying coastal areas.
In many areas, development has taken
place on reclaimed marshland making
them vulnerable to flooding heavy or
persistent rainfall.
The large population of second home
owners may mean that some adaptation
interventions should be considered on a
sub-community scale.



1 m SLR places 36% of the major tourism
properties at risk, along with 38% of
airports, 14% of road networks and 90%
of sea ports.
With 2 m SLR, 50% of major tourism
resorts will be impacted.
The Bahamas tourism sector specifically
can expect annual losses of between US
$869 million and US $946 million as a
result of SLR alone.
50 m of erosion will put 58% of the
major tourism resorts and 80% of sea
turtle nesting sites at risk.
Climate change effects are evident in the decline of some coastal tourism resources, but also in the
socioeconomic sectors which support tourism, such as agriculture, water resources, health and
biodiversity.
xvii
Climate Change Projections for The Bahamas
The projections of temperature, precipitation, sea surface temperatures; and tropical storms and hurricanes
for the Bahamas are indicated in Box 1 and have been used in making expert judgements on the impacts on
various socio-economic sectors and natural systems, and their further implications for the tourism industry.
Stakeholders consulted in the CCCRA have shared their experiences and understanding about climaterelated events, and this was generally consistent with observational data.
Box 1: Climate Modelling Projections for The Bahamas
Temperature: Regional Climate Model (RCM) projections indicate an increase spanning 2.7 - 2.8˚C by the
2080s under the higher emissions scenario.
Precipitation: General Circulation Model (GCM) projections of rainfall span both overall increases and
decreases, ranging from of -30 mm and + 21 mm per month by 2080 under the high emissions scenario.
Most projections tend toward decreases. The RCM projections, driven by HadCM3 boundary conditions,
indicate larger decreases in annual rainfall (-7%) when compared to simulations based on ECHAM4 (-5%).
Sea Surface Temperatures (SST): GCM projections indicate increases in SST throughout the year.
Projected increases range from +0.9˚C and +2.7˚C by the 2080s across all three emissions scenarios.
Tropical Storms and Hurricanes: North Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms appear to have increased
in intensity over the last 30 years. Observed and projected increases in SSTs indicate potential for
continuing increases in hurricane activity and model projections indicate that this may occur through
increases in intensity of events but not necessarily through increases in frequency of storms.
Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Impacts on Coastal Infrastructure and
Settlements
The majority of infrastructure and
settlements in The Bahamas, like most SIDS,
are located on, or near the coast, including
government, health, commercial and
transportation facilities. The high-density
tourism development on the coast is
particularly vulnerable to climate change
and SLR and increases the risk of
degradation of coastal and marine
biodiversity thereby reducing its resilience to
climate change impacts such as SLR and
storm surge.
Figure 1: Beach Erosion along Cabbage Beach
Source: The Tribune, 2010
The CARIBSAVE Partnership coordinated a field research team with members from the University of
Waterloo (Canada) and the staff from the Bahamas Meteorological Service to complete detailed coastal
profile surveying on the island of Eleuthera and Harbour Island.
xviii
Results of these surveys indicate that 1 m SLR
places 36% of the major tourism properties at
risk, along with 38% of airport lands, 14% of road
networks and 90% of seaport lands. With 2 m
SLR, 50% of major tourism resorts will be
impacted. Critical beach assets will be affected
much earlier than SLR induced erosion damages
to infrastructure; indeed, once erosion is
damaging infrastructure, it means the beach, a
vital tourism asset, has essentially disappeared.
Figure 2: High Resolution Coastal Profile Surveying with
Finally, with 100 m of erosion (resulting from
GPS
approx. 1 m SLR), 70% of the major tourism
resorts will be impacted and 80% of sea turtle nesting sites will be impacted (see Table 1 and Figure 3).
Table 1: Impacts associated with 1 m and 2 m SLR and 50 m and 100 m beach erosion in The Bahamas
Tourism Attractions
SLR
Erosion
Transportation Infrastructure
Major
Tourism
Resorts
Sea Turtle
Nesting
Sites
Airport
Lands
Road
Networks
Seaport
Lands
1.0 m
36%
35%
38%
14%
90%
2.0 m
50%
37%
53%
19%
90%
50 m
58%
80%
-
-
-
100 m
70%
80%
-
-
-
This study revealed the geographic areas that will be impacted by SLR (see Figure), but the actual costs
associated with this inundation need to be assessed. An earlier study by Simpson et al., (2010) calculated
annual and capital costs of SLR in CARICOM countriesi. In a mid-range SLR scenario, by the year 2050 annual
costs will be US $3.9 billion and capital costs US $26 billionv. The Bahamas tourism sector specifically can
expect annual losses of between US $869 million and US $946 million as a result of SLR alonev.
As the CCCRA reveals, projected impacts from climate change involve much more than SLR impacts and
therefore losses to national economies will also be greater than the figures mentioned. The impacts will be
three-fold: loss of land and its physical functionality, loss of economic value of existing businesses and
settlements and the spill-over impacts that lost coastal activities/industries will have in other sectors, for
example changes in agriculture and energy demand or fluctuations in employment in construction.
i
Simpson, M., Scott, D., Harrison, M., Silver, N., O’Keeffe, E., Harrison, S., et al. (2010). Quantification and Magnitude of Losses and
Damages Resulting from the Impacts of Climate Change: Modelling the Transformational Impacts and Costs of Sea Level Rise in the
Caribbean. Barbados: United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
xix
Figure 3: SLR Vulnerability and impacts in two zones of the east coast of Harbour Island
This SLR work provides The Bahamas with newly available higher resolution geospatial data of coastal areas
and a quantification of the extent of SLR and storm surge impacts projected for the islands.
Due to the time scales required to remove greenhouse gases (GHG) from the atmosphere and the thermal
inertia of the oceans, the effects of previous emissions will ensure that climate change impacts will persist
for more than a millenniumii. It is therefore vital not only to recognise the vulnerabilities to current SLR and
SLR-induced erosion, but to also anticipate and prepare for future SLR implications. This study therefore
reinforces that serious, comprehensive and urgent action that addresses the challenges of adapting to SLR
is needed in The Bahamas. One priority area is to build a full inventory of existing coastal protective
defences so that structural protection can be optimised now and into the future, for example, existing
seawalls that are in disrepair do not serve their anticipated erosion protection purpose. Only when the
current conditions are known can adaptation planning begin in earnest.
Community Livelihoods, Gender, Poverty and Development
More than 50 residents and workers from the Abaco Islands participated in CARIBSAVE’s vulnerability
assessment which included a vulnerability mapping exercise, focus-groups and household surveys based on
a livelihoods framework. This research provided an understanding of: how the main tourism related
activities, including fishing, vending and other micro and medium sized commercial activities located along
ii
IPCC. (2007a): Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Averyt, M. Tignor
and H. L. Miller, (eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
IPCC. (2007b). Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Parry, M. L., O. F. Canziani, J. P. Palutikof, P. J. van der
Linden and C. E. Hanson, (eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 7-22.
xx
the coast and have been affected by climate related events; the community’s adaptive capacity and the
complex factors that influence their livelihood choices; and the differences in the vulnerability of men and
women.
The settlements in Abaco are typically located in coastal areas. This settlement pattern in combination with
the low-lying topography and extended coastline places these communities at greater risk from the natural
hazards common to the rest of the Caribbean, (i.e. storm surge, storm water run-off challenges and the
propensity for ponding)iii.
Community Characteristics and Experiences
The population of the Abacos is swollen in winter
months by second home owners. Key livelihood
activities for residents are fishing, farming, direct
tourism (marinas, small resorts) and craft-making, all
of which are being impacted to some degree by
climate-related events and climate change.
Figure 4: Vulnerability mapping
The area of Dundus Town and Murphy Town sits
within a natural drainage course and as a result, floods
very easily. Due to the large population in Abaco, such
impacts have detrimental effects on many Bahamians
and greater understanding of their vulnerability can
enhance their livelihood sustainability.
There is extensive farmland in the north of Abaco island (about 3,700 acres), just south of Treasure Cay
Airport and in the south between Marsh Harbour and Cherokee Sound and 25% of female respondents
noted that the use of agricultural land was very important to their subsistence. To irrigate these agricultural
lands in female headed households, 40% depend on rain water and the other 60% depend on manual
irrigation. Therefore drought and water shortages have direct impacts on food security in Abaco.
A number of areas have been impacted by storms. These areas include Hope Town where previous
experiences with storms that devastated the community resulted in the establishment of building and
development protocols.
Many community residents reported experiences with/observations of climate change impacts.




Fisher folk have noted changes in fish stocks in recent years, with a general decline, particularly in
the near shore fishery. Since 32% and 20% of participants in the research indicated that the sea and
agricultural land, respectively, were very important for their subsistence, these changes in resource
quality and quantity as a result of climate change will have serious implications for livelihoods.
Coral bleaching.
Decimation of citrus crops from disease.
Sea level rise.
The Abaco fishing industry is male-dominated. Therefore if this industry is heavily impacted by climate
change, this has further implications for the welfare of households headed by fishermen. However,
fishermen usually engage in other sources of employment (e.g. construction) because fishing is seasonal.
iii
Environmental Solutions. (2005). Commonwealth of The Bahamas National Hurricane Response 2004: Report on Findings.
Jamaica: Kingston: United Nations Development Programme
xxi
Similarly, since tourism in The Bahamas is heavily dependent on the health of natural resources available
such as beaches, good weather, clear water and vibrant ecosystems, any impact on these resources will
affect women who are more heavily employed in the sector.
Agriculture and Food Security
Agriculture’s contribution to The Bahamas Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has been minimal over the past
decade and the country depends almost entirely on imports to feed Bahamians and tourists. The annual
food import bill is nearly US $500 million, suggesting a serious threat to agriculture development and food
security (see Table 2). The majority of cultivation that does occur takes place on the Family Islands, which
have limited access to markets.
Moreover, The Bahamas is very familiar with the losses that climate-related disasters can cause given their
location in the Atlantic Hurricane Belt. Tropical storms and hurricanes have directly damaged crops,
seedbeds, livestock and related agricultural infrastructure. To improve food security, it is recommended
that an assessment of options for the expansion of local agricultural production and the reduction of food
imports be conducted. A fundamental solution to the high food prices and high level of food imports in The
Bahamas is to increase local food production and consumption. Prime Minister of The Bahamas, Mr. Hubert
Ingraham, in his March 2011 address to the Third National Agribusiness Expo, acknowledged the
importance of encouraging urban households to take greater responsibility for their food choices. With
greater household food production, larger scale, local agriculture can be offered to the tourism industry at
better prices than imported food. This will enable the Bahamas tourism sector to maintain some of its price
competitiveness in the future.
Table 2: Imports by Commodity Group 1999 and 2003 ‐ 2007 (B $'000)
Period
Catfish
Fish and
Crustaceans
Fruits and
Vegetables
Aragonite
Rum
Crude
Salt
Chemicals
Others
Total
1999
71,586
3,677
10,273
389
30,957
13,579
11,219
50,664
194,160
2003
106,381
1,773
2,000
478
22,024
13,636
49
111,582
264,115
2004
86,107
1,285
1,369
80
31,344
12,457
0
107,585
240,227
2005
74,498
3,531
926
52
16,843
14,805
0
160,19
270,849
2006
89,906
4,242
1,233
38,115
9,393
12,044
15,019
172,759
343,551
2007
81,371
1,865
1,198
35,577
20,282
6,600
84,562
147,289
379,090
(Adapted from FAO Report on Rapid Assessment of the Agriculture Sector in The Bahamas, 2010)
Additional concerns for agriculture in the Bahamas include the aging farming population and a scarcity of
youth showing interest in pursuing farming as a career. The Bahamas experiences a high rural-urban
migration that further threatens sustainable agricultural development across the island chain. Efforts to
encourage youth involvement in adaptive agriculture by harnessing their knowledge and affinity for new
technologies to support sustainable farming will be important to successful growth of domestic production.
One aspect of this kind of project is the revision and revival of the agriculture curriculum in schools and
introduction of modules that show students how to use Geographic Information Systems (GIS), Global
Positioning Systems (GPS) and Remote Sensing to provide solutions to agriculture. Use of technology will
become increasingly important to agriculture production as the climate changes, rainfall becomes less
reliable in some seasons and mean annual temperatures increase.
xxii
Energy and Tourism
Tourism is an increasingly significant sector in energy use and emissions of greenhouse gases in the
Caribbean. Current tourism related energy use and associated emissions are estimated to be 36% of The
Bahamas national emissions, excluding emissions from fuel used to fly tourists to The Bahamas. The major
direct consumers of energy emissions in The Bahamian tourism sector are aviation (62%), cruise ships (13%)
and accommodation (7%). As a service-based economy, The Bahamas is becoming increasingly energy
intensive at a projected rate of 8% per year in the period 2008-2013. Regular energy audits are
recommended to promote energy efficiency across all sectors, but especially in tourism because of its high
volume consumption. Oil imports for local consumption are estimated to have exceeded US $1 billion in
2008, which corresponds to about 0.943 Mt of oil or emissions of roughly 3 Mt CO2 in 2009iv. In order to
ensure that fuel imports are maintained at an affordable and sustainable level demand side management,
technological innovation and politics that allow restructuring of the tourism systems will be needed.
The anticipation of continued rising oil prices, as well as international emissions reduction polices, will
make both the tourism sector and the wider economy of The Bahamas highly vulnerable. While the
Government of The Bahamas is aware of its strong dependence on fossil fuels, the current Electricity Act
does not facilitate the use of renewable sources to meet its energy demand. Moreover, there are currently
no renewable energy plans in The Bahamas. As such, the legal and regulatory framework will require
revision if any significant investment in renewable energy is to be encouraged. Carbon pricing is the most
efficient tool to stimulate behaviour change and change in production, thus while it will be difficult at first,
such a price structure will encourage the creation of a more sustainable energy sector; and by extension, a
more sustainable tourism sector in the Bahamas.
Water Quality and Availability
The Bahamas is reliant on rainfall as the sole source of freshwater in the country. Freshwater is scarce, at
66 m3 per capita per year, ranking The Bahamas 177 out of 180 countries with respect to water availability.
Water supply is provided by Government- and privately owned wells, as well as local reverse osmosis
plants. Although availability and dispersal of water resources presents many challenges because of the
geographic spread of The Bahamas, data suggests there is currently no net shortage of freshwater
resources. However, to meet water demands across all the islands some innovative distribution practices
are in place. Barges from Andros Island ship potable water to New Providence and Grand Bahama, where
the majority of the population and tourists reside.
Given that climate models project annual decreases in rainfall across the islands and that salt water
intrusion is an identified threat in all islands, such practices may become increasingly impractical from a
financial perspective, much like the food importation challenges and also as a result of further reductions in
water supply.
The shallow freshwater aquifer lenses in The Bahamas are highly vulnerable to numerous factors, including:


contamination from anthropogenic pollution (e.g. septic tanks, leachates from landfills, release of
industrial waste);
saline intrusion from SLR;
iv
NEPC. (2008). The Bahamas National Energy Policy - November 2008. Nassau: Government of Bahamas, National Energy Policy
Committee.
xxiii


storm surges; and
flooding.
Tourism is also increasing water vulnerability in The Bahamas through its increased groundwater
abstraction and increased generation of sewage. While The Bahamas is well advanced in planning
adaptation measures for water resources under climate change, the geographic spread of the islands
makes the implementation of these measures highly challenging. There are also few methods in place to
encourage the efficient use of water or the use of water recycling schemes.
In the National Report on the Implementation of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification,
the Government recommended establishing prediction models for SLR and coastal impacts. This
recommendation requires the implementation of computer modelling of groundwater flows and also
demands better monitoring of abstraction through licensing of private wells that currently lack sufficient
regulation (Spencer et al., 2010). Given the current water use trends in the Bahamas these tools are
imperative to climate change adaptation.
Comprehensive Natural Disaster Management
The dispersed population makes the
management of emergency situations
challenging in The Bahamas. The low-lying
cays place much of the population at risk to
flooding, SLR, storm surge and even
tsunamis since there is limited safe, higher
ground. These characteristics make The
Bahamas highly vulnerable, with a strong
potential for situations to become
disastrous, especially as not all islands in the
chain have full access to the resources and
supplies required to respond to disasters.
The development of facilities and trained
personnel on each island is recommended as
a means to build capacity at the institutional
level but also improved awareness of the
links between disasters and climate change
will be required at the community level.
Figure 5: Beach erosion exacerbated by the invasive Casuarina
tree
(Source: Neil Sealey, 2006)
The Bahamas has made efforts to build risk reduction into their policies and plans while also strengthening
their capacity to respond to disasters. Though some progress has been made, the cancellation of the
Natural Risks Preventive Management Program is one indication that the National Emergency Management
Agency (NEMA) is still primarily working on disaster response, rather than focusing on preparedness and
prevention.
In 2004, The Bahamas was hit with 3 tropical storms and 2 major hurricanes in close succession. The storm
surge heights and major flooding on multiple islands demonstrated how quickly communities could be
isolated and disabled. The economic impacts from these events were much longer lasting. Thousands of
Bahamians were also left without work, as major tourism resorts closed for repairs. Despite the existence
of an emergency management system, it is recommended that efforts be made to ‘build back better’
xxiv
following disasters through definitive actions to understand the vulnerabilities that created the disaster in
the first place. Improvements to the enforcement of environmental and urban planning regulations are also
needed to ensure vulnerabilities do not progress further. The Bahamas needs a policy for coastal protection
and environmental buffer zones, including an official environmental impact assessment (EIA) mechanism so
that Bahamians are protected from storm surge impacts but also so that future developments are built with
an understanding of the projected changes to the coastal zone. The Bahamas Environment Science and
Technology Commission (BEST) has created EIA Guidelines but they are yet to be enacted.
Human Health
Climate change has both direct and indirect links to human health. Diseases can be contracted by tourists
visiting The Bahamas or they can be transferred to Bahamians from visitors. Disease transfer and mortality
rates resulting from injuries sustained during natural disasters are one important direct impact to consider
when assessing the vulnerability of a country to climate change. Storm surges, high winds, intense rainfall
and resultant flooding can all threaten the safety and health of Bahamians. Mental disorders (e.g. posttraumatic stress) may also result from extreme events and property loss/damage. As a result, joint efforts
between the Ministry of Health and NEMA are recommended to curb post-disaster disease outbreaks in
both the local population and among tourists.
This research also revealed the need for public
health education programmes on climate-related
diseases and health and sanitation promotion
within communities throughout The Bahamas.
Specifically, the incidence of tropical diseases is
projected to rise due to changes in temperature
over The Bahamas. SLR can also increase the risks
of vector-borne diseases such as malaria and
dengue fever, because rising sea levels has the
potential to increase the size of wetland areas,
subsequently increasing the number of suitable
habitats for mosquito breeding. Additionally, there
are important links between a well maintained
Figure 6: Caribbean Pine Forest, Abaco Island
water supply system and public health. Water
supply disruptions combined with poor water quality can give rise to sanitation problems, creating
conditions suitable for disease transmission including food-borne diseases such as cholera, salmonellosis,
listeriosis and e-coli. For this reason, the use of a disease early warning system can assist in early detection
of these diseases. Since this kind of system is dependent on individuals understanding the signs and risk
factors for specific diseases of concern, an awareness building campaign is recommended in conjunction
with the warning system.
Health and climate change policy efforts are evident in The Bahamas. The Government has devised a
National Policy for Adaptation to Climate Change, making direct reference to health concerns.
Furthermore, The Bahamas outlined a National Health Strategic Plan (2010 - 2020) that also addresses
climate change concerns. The Agricultural Sectoral Plan for The Bahamas also establishes the link between
health, nutrition and education and climate change. However, there has been an absence of a formal
evaluation process, as well as an inefficient utilisation of the established institutional capacity in The
Bahamas. Better epidemiological monitoring and an integrated vector monitoring programme (such as the
xxv
one designed by the WHO) will be integral to the Bahamas successful preparation and adaptation to the
impacts of climate change on human health.
Marine and Terrestrial Biodiversity and Fisheries
It has been estimated that only 5% of the species found in The Bahamas have been described, but this 5%
nevertheless represents 1,100 species of flora and 375 species of fauna. The Bahamian biodiversity is of
global importance, with the islands and cays providing refuge to many endangered species, home to the
world’s third longest barrier reef system (Andros island) and one of the largest underwater cave systems in
the world (Lucaycan Caverns). These environmental assets, with the white sand beaches and clear waters,
are critical to the economy of The Bahamas and the sustainability of the tourism industry that attracts
millions of people. The need to protect these eco-systems is two-fold: they attract tourists and they offer
natural coastal protection. Further natural coastal protection for the Bahamas should include, for example,
the removal of invasive casuarina trees and replanting of deep rooted sea grape and almond trees.
Moreover, the marine eco-system is critical for the sustainability of rural livelihoods and the islands’ food
security, with The Bahamas fisheries sector contributing 3% to GDP and employing 9,300 fishers in rural
communities. The promotion of stewardship through cooperative marine protected areas (MPA) is
recommended because these management interventions increase the resilience of coastal eco-systems to
the impacts of climate change and also address the identified problem of decreasing fish stocks around The
Bahamas.
Figure 7: Map showing existing Marine Parks and Proposed Marine Reserve Areas
(Source: Department of Marine Resources, 2007)
xxvi
A strategy should be devised and implemented which will:



establish a more effective fish sanctuary management and enforcement system for coastal
communities;
enhance the capacity of resource managers and users to be more resilient to climate change; and
establish a sustainable finance mechanism for supporting fish sanctuary management.
The strategy should increase the involvement of the tourism sector in supporting community-based MPAs,
as well as provide opportunities for alternative livelihoods and technologies for public education.
The Government of The Bahamas, in collaboration with other agencies, have developed policies and begun
to implement strategies towards monitoring and building the resilience of its biodiversity to climate change
impacts, such as the National Climate Change Policy. It is essential that these policies are put into action
quickly, as SLR, high SSTs and increased storm intensity are projected to accelerate damages to valuable
natural resources and eco-system services. The country’s experience in managing its National Park systems
(see Figure 7v) and its commitment to increasing protected areas puts The Bahamas in a position to serve as
a model to assist other islands in the region to build climate change resilience.
Conclusion
The Bahamas have a history of damages and losses from natural disasters. Given current capacities and
climate change impacts and projections, preparedness for disasters and climate change adaptation become
inextricably linked. It is evident that the Government and the people of The Bahamas are broadly aware of
climate change, however resource users with little or no awareness of alternative courses of action
continue to degrade or over-extract from marine and terrestrial eco-systems and resources, making
themselves and their environment, more vulnerable. Knowing the specific challenges facing communities in
The Bahamas, such as decreasing fish stocks, uncertain water availability and natural hazards, efforts to
reduce negative impacts can be promoted.
The CCCRA explored recent and future changes in climate in The Bahamas using a combination of
observations and climate model projections. Despite the limitations that exist with regards to climate
modelling and the attribution of present conditions to climate change, this information provides very useful
indications of the likely changes in climate characteristics and impacts on socio-economic sectors.
Consequently, decision makers should adopt a precautionary approach and ensure that measures are taken
now to increase the resilience of economies, businesses and communities to climate related hazards.
It is clear that the Government of The Bahamas is committed to adapting to climate change, as evidenced
by some policy responses, current practices and planned actions; as well as the recognition of the
importance of The Bahamas’ natural resources to livelihoods and the economy. However, serious financial
resource shortages along with limited technical capacities hinder successful adaptation efforts across most
government ministries and other stakeholder groups. Enforcement of laws to protect biodiversity and the
environment remain a challenge.
Given these limitations and the severity of the impacts being experienced now and those projected, it will
become increasingly important that individuals have the capacity and evidence based tools to make
v
Department of Marine Resources. (2005). The Government of The Bahamas: Department of Marine Resources. Frequently asked
questions. Retrieved 14/2/2011 from www.bahamas.gov.bs
xxvii
decisions and adapt to the changing climate. As many of the sectors have recommended, improving
community awareness and education will provide individuals with the necessary information about their
particular vulnerability and risks, specific to their region and thus empower them to take action to build
their own resilience. New technologies used in the CCCRA offer improved access and availability of valuable
decision making data that can assist the Government of The Bahamas to justify how and where to invest in
future climate change adaptation.
Finally, while climate change adaptation does have an associated cost, the cost of inaction is now identified
to be much greater, particularly in highly tourism reliant economies, such as The Bahamas. New evidence
provided by the progressive research of the CCCRA climate modelling, community vulnerability
assessments and SLR work offers public and private sector stakeholders strong evidence to support
immediate and continued learning and action.
xxviii
1. GLOBAL AND REGIONAL CONTEXT
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), published in 2007,
provides undisputable evidence that human activities are the major reason for the rise in greenhouse gas
emissions and changes in the global climate system (IPCC, 2007a). Climate change will affect ecosystem
services in ways that increase vulnerabilities with regard to food security, water supply, natural disasters, as
well as human health. Notably, climate change is ongoing, with “observational evidence from all continents
and oceans … that many natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly
temperature increases” (IPCC, 2007b: 8). Observed and projected climate change will in turn affect socioeconomic development (Global Humanitarian Forum, 2009; Stern, 2006), with some 300,000 deaths per
year currently being attributed to climate change (Global Humanitarian Forum, 2009). Mitigation (to reduce
the speed at which the global climate changes) as well as adaptation (to cope with changes that are
inevitable) are thus of great importance (Parry et al., 2009).
The IPCC (2007a: 5) notes that “warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as it is now evident from
observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and
ice and rising global average sea level”. Climate change has started to affect many natural systems,
including hydrological systems (increased runoff and earlier spring peak discharge, warming of lakes and
rivers affecting thermal structure and water quality), terrestrial ecosystems (earlier spring events including
leaf-unfolding, bird migration and egg-laying, biodiversity decline, and pole ward and upward shifts in the
ranges of plants and animal species), as well as marine systems (rising water temperatures, changes in ice
cover, salinity, acidification, oxygen levels and circulation, affecting shifts in the ranges and changes of
algae, plankton and fish abundance).
The IPCC (2007b) also notes that small islands are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change,
including sea-level rise and extreme events. Deterioration in coastal conditions is expected to affect
fisheries and tourism, with sea-level rise being “expected to exacerbate inundation, storm surge, erosion
and other coastal hazards, threatening vital infrastructure, settlements and facilities that support the
livelihood of island communities” (IPCC, 2007b: 15). Climate change is projected to reduce water resources
in the Caribbean to a point where these become insufficient to meet demand, at least in periods with low
rainfalls (IPCC, 2007b). Together, these changes are projected to severely affect socio-economic
development and well-being in the world (Stern, 2006), with the number of climate change related deaths
expected to rise to 500,000 per year globally by 2020 (Global Humanitarian Forum, 2009). However, not all
regions are equally vulnerable to climate change. The Caribbean needs to be seen as one of the most
vulnerable regions, due to their relative affectedness by climate change, but also in terms of their capacity
to adapt (Bueno et al., 2008). This should be seen in the light of Dulal et al.’s (2009: 371) conclusion that:
If the Caribbean countries fail to adapt, they are likely to take direct and substantial
economic hits to their most important industry sectors such as tourism, which depends
on the attractiveness of their natural coastal environments, and agriculture (including
fisheries), which are highly climate sensitive sectors. By no incidence, these two sectors
are the highest contributors to employment in the majority of these countries and
significant losses or economic downturn attendant to inability to adapt to climate
change will not increase unemployment but have potentially debilitating social and
cultural consequences to communities.
Climate change has, since the publication of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 4 th
Assessment Report (IPCC 2007b), been high on the global political agenda. The most recent UN Conference
1
of Parties (COP) in Mexico in December 2010 agreed that increases in temperature should be stabilised at a
maximum of 2°C by 2100. Notably, the 39 member states of the Alliance of Small Island States have called
in a recent Declaration to the United Nations for a new climate change agreement that would ensure global
warming to be kept at a maximum of 1.5°C (AOSIS, 2009).
So far, the European Union is the only region in the world with a legally binding target for emission
reductions, imposed on the largest polluters. Some individual countries are taking action, such as the
Australian Government’s comprehensive long-term plan for tackling climate change and securing a clean
energy future. The plan outlines the existing policies already underway to address climate change and cut
carbon pollution and introduces several critical new initiatives and has four pillars: a carbon price;
renewable energy; energy efficiency; and action on land. As a group, AOSIS member states account for less
than 1% of global greenhouse gas emissions (UN-OHRLLS, 2009). However, according to a recent report of
the IPCC the projected impacts of global climate change on the Caribbean region are expected to be
devastating (IPCC, 2007c).
An analysis of the vulnerability of CARICOM nations to SLR and associated storm surge by The CARIBSAVE
Partnership in 2010 found that large areas of the Caribbean coast are highly susceptible to erosion, and
beaches have experienced accelerated erosion in recent decades. It is estimated that with a 1 m SLR and a
conservative estimate of associated erosion, 49% of the major tourism resorts in CARICOM countries would
be damaged or destroyed. Erosion associated with a 2 m SLR (or a high estimate for a 1 m SLR), would
result in an additional 106 resorts (or 60% of the region’s coastal resorts) being at risk. Importantly, the
beach assets so critical to tourism would be affected much earlier than the erosion damages to tourism
infrastructure, affecting property values and the competitiveness of many destinations. Beach nesting sites
for sea turtles were also at significant risk to beach erosion associated with SLR, with 51% significantly
affected by erosion from 1 m SLR and 62% by erosion associated with 2 m SLR (Simpson et al. 2010).
In real terms, the threats posed to the region’s development prospects are severe and it is now accepted
that adaptation will require a sizeable and sustained investment of resources. Over the last decade alone,
damages from intense climatic conditions have cost the region in excess of half a trillion US dollars (CCCCC,
2009).
2
1.1.
Climate change impacts on tourism
Direct and indirect climatic impacts: The Caribbean’s tourism resources, the primary one being the climate
itself, are all climate sensitive. When beaches and other natural resources undergo negatives changes as a
result of climate and meteorological events, this can affect the appeal of a destination – particularly if these
systems are slow to recover. Further, studies indicate that a shift of attractive climatic conditions for
tourism towards higher latitudes and altitudes is very likely as a result of climate change. Projected
increases in the frequency or magnitude of certain weather and climate extremes (e.g., heat waves,
droughts, floods, tropical cyclones) as a result of projected climate change will affect the tourism industry
through increased infrastructure damage, additional emergency preparedness requirements, higher
operating expenses (e.g., insurance, backup water and power systems, and evacuations), and business
interruptions (Simpson et al., 2008).
In contrast to the varied impacts of a changed climate on tourism, the indirect effects of climate-induced
environmental change are likely to be largely negative.
Impacts of mitigation policies on tourist mobility: Scientifically, there is general consensus that ‘serious’
climate policy will be paramount in the transformation of tourism towards becoming climatically
sustainable, as significant technological innovation and behavioural change demand strong regulatory
environments (e.g. Barr et al. 2010, Bows et al. 2009, Hickman and Banister 2007; see also Giddens 2009).
As outlined by Scott et al. (2010), “serious” would include the endorsement of national and international
mitigation policies by tourism stakeholders, a global closed emission trading scheme for aviation and
shipping, the introduction of significant and constantly rising carbon taxes on fossil fuels, incentives for lowcarbon technologies and transport infrastructure, and, ultimately, the development of a vision for a
fundamentally different global tourism economy. The Caribbean is likely to be a casualty of international
mitigation policies that discourage long-haul travel.
Pentelow and Scott (2010) concluded that a combination of low carbon price and low oil price would have
very little impact on arrivals growth to the Caribbean region through to 2020, with arrivals 1.28% to 1.84%
lower than in the business as usual (BAU) scenario (the range attributed to the price elasticities chosen).
The impact of a high carbon price and high oil price scenario was more substantive, with arrivals 2.97% to
4.29% lower than the 2020 BAU scenario depending on the price elasticity value used. The study concluded:
It is important to emphasize that the number of arrivals to the region would still be
projected to grow from between 19.7 million to 19.9 million in 2010 to a range of 30.1
million to 31.0 million in 2020 (Pentelow and Scott 2010).
Indirect societal change impacts: Climate change is believed to pose a risk to future economic growth of
some nations, particularly for those where losses and damages are comparable to a country’s GDP. This
could reduce the means and incentive for long-haul travel and have negative implications for anticipated
future growth in this sector in the Caribbean. Climate change associated security risks have been identified
in a number of regions where tourism is highly important to local-national economies (e.g., Stern, 2006;
Barnett and Adger, 2007; German Advisory Council, 2007; Simpson et al., 2008). International tourists are
averse to political instability and social unrest, and negative tourism-demand repercussions for climate
change security hotspots, many of which are believed to be in developing nations, are already evident (Hall
et al., 2004).
3
2. NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES
2.1.
Geography and climate
The Bahamas archipelago is made up of over 700 islands and over 2000 rocks and cays extending
approximately 650 miles from Florida to Cuba. The country covers a total area of 321,159 km2, but only
13,939 km2 or 4% is land. The islands are long, flat coral formations with some low rounded hills and
extensive wetlands. The highest point is Mount Alvernia on Cat Island at 63 m. There are only 22 inhabited
islands with nearly 70% of the population, which stood at 353,658 in the 2010 census (Bahamas
Department of Statistics, 2010a), residing on New Providence Island, where the capital city of Nassau is
located. Freeport in Grand Bahama Island is the second major population centre, with just under 9% of
total population. The other islands are collectively referred to as the “Family Islands” (NCCC-BEST, 2005).
There are no rivers, but a number of tidal creeks, wetlands and mangrove forests. The Bahamas’ coastal,
marine and deep waters comprise more than 96% of the country’s total area. The Bahamas has a rich
marine and terrestrial biological diversity, though a large portion of the country remains unexplored, as
only approximately 5% of all species present in the country have been identified to date (Government of
The Bahamas, 2004). Five percent of the world's coral and the third longest barrier reef can be found in the
waters of The Bahamas. The country’s isolation and extensive shelf with productive coral reefs and other
habitats, plus a large area of coastal wetlands, especially mangrove forests, contribute to its abundance and
diversity of migratory fish and mammal species, awarding The Bahamas the greatest marine biodiversity in
the Caribbean (BEST, 2001; Government of The Bahamas, 2004). The Bahamas has some highly productive
fishing grounds with commercial fishing generating about $70 million1 a year, and exports of spiny lobster
alone contributing just over 2% of GDP (NCCC-BEST, 2005).
Historically large expanses of land on all of the major inhabited islands were subsistence farmed. Once land
was farmed for a few years it became exhausted and farmers cleared new acreage for planting. Some of
these ventures were successful but eventually succumbed because of soil depletion. The soils of The
Bahamas are now very thin, calcareous, fragile, have low fertility and are prone to drought. Large-scale
mechanised crop production is now carried out mainly in Abaco, Andros and Grand Bahama (NCCC-BEST,
2005). The natural vegetation is Caribbean pine forest in the four northern islands, and broadleaf hardwood
coppice woodland in the south-eastern islands.
The Bahamas’ climate is sub-tropical marine climate with an average annual temperature of 25.3°C,
average annual sunshine hours of 5.6 hours, average rainfall of 99.3 mm per month and average annual
humidity of 78%. Most of the island’s rainfall is recorded during the “wet season”, May to October (typically
152.4 mm per month) with the dry season between November and April (typically 51 mm per month).
Northern islands receive 20% more rain than Nassau, and southern islands 50% less. Mean wind speed is of
the order of 6.5 m/s (Bahamas Meteorological Department, 2011). The rainy season corresponds with the
Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Season, where Caribbean countries are affected by a range of low-pressure and
hurricane events roughly between June and November each year. Heavy rain during this season often
causes flooding, and storm surges and hurricane-force winds can cause extensive damage to property and
to the landscape. Recent hurricanes that have impacted The Bahamas since 1990 are: Andrew in 1992
1
The specific currency is not given in the reference. The Bahamian dollar is tied to the US dollar 1:1.
4
(Category 4), Bertha in 1996 (Category 1), Lili in 1996 (Category 4), Floyd in 1999 (Category 4) and Michelle
in 2001 (Category 1) (NCCC-BEST, 2005).
2.2.
Socio-economic profile
In 2009, The Bahamas was the wealthiest country in the Caribbean and Latin America based on per capita
GDP, according to the Statistical Yearbook prepared by ECLAC (ECLAC, 2010a). It should be noted that the
data presented does not include the British overseas territories of Turks and Caicos, Cayman Islands and
British Virgin Islands, who had greater per capita wealth in 2006 (CDB, 2006). The Bahamian economy is
heavily dependent on United States tourism (Value added represents about 40% of GDP in 2009) (ECLAC,
2010b) and the financial services sector (37% of GDP from financial institutions, insurance, real estate and
business services in 2009) (ECLAC, 2010c). Table 2.2.1 shows that the country’s GDP increased by 15%
between 2000 and 2007 before declining in 2008 and 2009.
Table 2.2.1: Gross Domestic Product for Bahamas, 2000 - 2009
YEAR
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
GDP at constant
2006 prices
(Bs$ million)
6,205
6,166
6,302
6,345
6,445
6,770
7,004
7,139
7,018
6,718
(Source: ECLAC, 2010c)
The economy has remained relatively stable, but given the high dependence on the US it has suffered
significantly from the global recession. The economy declined by about 4% between 2009 and 2010 due to
the global downturn. Tourism contracted sharply and construction activity weakened as foreign direct
investments fell (RLB, 2010). The population of The Bahamas stood at approximately 346,900 in the middle
of 2010 with a 2009 growth rate of 0.81%. Females comprise a slightly larger percentage (approximately
52%) of the population (Bahamas Department of Statistics, 2010b). The unemployment rate stood at 8% in
2008, with more women unemployed than their male counterparts (9% and 7% respectively), (Bahamas
Department of Statistics, 2008a). In the same year the government employed just 18% of the labour force
with 69% employed by private companies (Bahamas Department of Statistics, 2008b). The slump in
economic activity caused unemployment to spike from 8.7% in 2008 to 14.2% in 2009. As the recession
deepened, job losses were experienced across a number of sectors, including hotel and restaurants,
construction and wholesale and retail trade (ECLAC, 2010b). There is little history of political violence or
instability in The Bahamas, although semi-violent labour union protests erupted in early 1999 over
Government plans to downsize the phone company.
In 2000 new and more strict financial regulations were enacted that led to many international businesses
relocating elsewhere. Since then the sector remains stable, despite tax compliance pressure from the
United States. After Hurricane Floyd, this sector was back to full strength in less than three working days
and made a tremendous contribution to disaster relief efforts.
5
The Bahamian Government has continued to stimulate the economy through the following capital
investments: dredging and expansion of the Nassau deep water harbour to expand capacity; expansion
work at Lyndon Pindling International Airport; the development of the new National Sports Stadium; relocation of the commercial port facilities away from Bay Street to Arawak Cay; regeneration of the Bay
Street and construction of the Nassau Straw Market; extension to the Sandilands Hospital and a planned
new Princess Margaret Hospital (BCQS, 2010 and RLB, 2010).
2.3.
Importance of tourism to the national economy
Caribbean tourism is based on the natural environment, and the region’s countries are known primarily as
beach destinations. The tourism product therefore depends on favourable weather conditions as well as on
an attractive and healthy natural environment, particularly in the coastal zone. Both of these are
threatened by climate change. The Caribbean is the most tourism-dependent region in the world with few
options to develop alternative economic sectors and is one of the most vulnerable regions in the world to
the impacts of climate change including SLR, coastal erosion, flooding, biodiversity loss and impacts on
human health.
Tourism has been and continues to be the major economic sector in The Bahamas, showing sustained
growth over several decades, primarily in the cruise sector which accounts for the majority of tourists (71%
in 2009). The number of stopovers during the period 1990 to 2009 has fluctuated around 1.5 million
whereas the number of cruise ship passengers has grown by almost 76% in the same period. Total tourist
expenditure increased by 67% in the period 1989 to 2007 (see Table 2.3.1 and Table 2.3.2). However, the
global recession has taken its toll on visitor numbers in both 2009 and 2010.
Table 2.3.1: Visitor Arrivals to Bahamas 1990 - 2009
Year
Stopovers
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
1,561,665
1,427,035
1,398,895
1,488,680
1,516,035
1,598,135
1,633,105
1,617,595
1,527,707
1,577,066
1,543,959
1,537,780
1,513,151
1,510,169
1,561,312
1,608,153
1,654,210
1,524,442
1,463,006
1,326,973
Cruise Ship
Passengers
1,853,897
2,019,964
2,140,510
2,038,798
1,805,607
1,543,495
1,685,668
1,751,140
1,729,894
1,981,471
2,512,626
2,551,673
2,802,112
2,970,174
3,360,012
3,078,709
3,076,397
2,970,659
2,861,140
3,255,780
(Source: ECLAC, 2010c)
6
Table 2.3.2: Estimated Tourist Expenditure (millions US $)
Year
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Stopover
1,205.9
1,209.9
1,082.0
1,132.0
1,199.2
1,231.1
1,245.4
1,291.5
1,307.4
1,244.4
1,463.6
1,579.7
1,494.8
1,602.5
1,595.3
1,693.5
1,883.9
1,881.2
2,020.8
Cruise
93.0
110.5
130.0
102.6
96.4
96.0
95.7
101.7
105.2
105.5
114.9
148.0
147.6
151.2
157.0
185.8
180.0
172.0
166.8
Day
10.6
12.5
10.4
8.9
8.6
7.0
5.0
4.2
3.5
4.1
4.4
6.8
5.3
6.0
5.0
5.2
5.0
4.1
4.1
All Visitors
1,309.5
1,332.9
1,222.4
1,243.6
1,304.2
1,334.1
1,346.2
1,397.5
1,416.1
1,354.1
1,582.9
1,734.5
1,647.7
1,759.8
1,757.4
1,884.5
2,068.9
2,057.4
2,191.7
(Source: MoT, 2009)
Hotels, restaurants and wholesale and retail commerce contributed 16% of GDP in 2009 (ECLAC, 2010c),
but, as stated above, tourism, when combined with other tourism-driven activities, accounts for
approximately 40% of GDP. The combined grouping of hotels, restaurants, wholesale and retail commerce
employed about 30% of the labour force in 2007 (Bahamas Department of Statistics, 2008c). Key markets
for The Bahamas are the United States and Canada (80% and 8% of arrivals respectively) (CTO, 2010).
7
3. CLIMATE MODELLING
3.1.
Introduction to Climate Modelling Results
This summary of climate change information for The Bahamas is derived from a combination of recently
observed climate data sources, and climate model projections of future scenarios using both a General
Circulation Model (GCM) ensemble of 15 models and the Regional Climate Model (RCM), PRECIS.
General Circulation Models (GCMs) provide global simulations of future climate under prescribed
greenhouse gas scenarios. These models are proficient in simulating the large scale circulation patterns
and seasonal cycles of the world’s climate, but operate at coarse spatial resolution (grid boxes are typically
around 2.5 degrees latitude and longitude). This limited resolution hinders the ability for the model to
represent the finer scale characteristics of a region’s topography, and many of the key climatic processes
which determine its weather and climate characteristics. Over the Caribbean, this presents significant
problems as most of the small islands are too small to feature as a land mass at GCM resolution.
Regional Climate Models (RCMS) are often nested in GCMs to simulate the climate at a finer spatial scale
over a small region of the world, acting to ‘downscale’ the GCM projections and provide a better physical
representation of the local climate of that region. RCMs enable the investigation of climate changes at a
sub-GCM-grid scale, as such changes in the dynamic climate processes at a community scale or tourist
destination can be projected.
For each of a number of climate variables (average temperature, average rainfall, average wind speed,
relative humidity, sea-surface temperature, sunshine hours, extreme temperatures, and extreme rainfalls)
the results of GCM multi-model projections under three emissions scenarios at the country scale, and RCM
simulations from single model driven by two different GCMs for a single emissions scenario at the
destination scale, are examined. Where available, observational data sources are drawn upon to identify
changes that are already occurring in the climates at both the country and destination scale.
In this study, RCM simulations from PRECIS, driven by two different GCMs (ECHAM4 and HadCM3) are used
to look at projected climate for each country and at the community level. Combining the results of GCM
and RCM experiments allows the use of high-resolution RCM projections in the context of the uncertainty
margins that the 15-model GCM ensemble provides.
The following projections are based on the IPCC standard ‘marker’ scenarios – A2 (a ‘high’ emissions
scenario), A1B (a medium high scenario, where emissions increase rapidly in the earlier part of the century
but then plateau in the second half) and B1 (a ‘low’ emissions scenario). Climate projections are examined
under all three scenarios from the multi-model GCM ensemble, but at present, results from the regional
models are only available for scenario A2. Table 3.1.1 outlines the time line on which various temperature
thresholds are projected to be reached under the various scenarios according to the IPCC.
8
Table 3.1.1: Earliest and latest years respectively at which the threshold temperatures are exceeded in the 41
projections*
SRES
Scenario
1.5C Threshold
Earliest
Latest
2.0C Threshold
Earliest
Latest
2.5C Threshold
Earliest
Latest
A1B
2023
2050
2038
2070
2053
Later than 2100
A2
2024
2043
2043
2060
2056
2077
B1
2027
2073
2049
Later than 2100
2068
Later than 2100
*NB: In some cases the threshold is not reached prior to 2100, the latest date for which the projections are available.
The potential changes in hurricane and tropical storm frequency and intensity, sea-level rise (SLR), and
storm surge incidence are also examined for the Caribbean region. For these variables, existing material in
the literature is examined in order to assess the potential changes affecting the tourist destinations.
3.2.
Temperature
Observations from gridded temperature datasets indicate that mean annual temperatures over The
Bahamas have increased at an average rate of 0.11˚C per decade. The observed increases have been most
rapid in the seasons JJA and SON at rates of 0.13 and 0.15˚C per decade, respectively.
General Circulation Model (GCM) projections from a 15-model ensemble indicate that The Bahamas can be
expected to warm by 0.8 to 1.9˚C by the 2050s and 1.0-3.2˚C by the 2080s, relative to the 1970-1999 mean.
Projected mean temperatures increase most rapidly in JJA and SON, and changes are similar throughout
The Bahamas.
Regional Climate Model (RCM) projections based on two driving GCMs project annual mean changes that
are around the centre of the 15-member GCM ensemble (2.7 to 2.8˚C by the 2080s under scenario A2), and
should therefore be interpreted in the context of a wider range of model uncertainty than is indicated by
the RCM projections alone.
The improved spatial resolution in the RCM allows the land mass of the larger islands in The Bahamas to be
represented, whilst the region is represented only by ‘ocean’ grid boxes at GCM resolution. Land surfaces
warm more rapidly than ocean due to their lower capacity to absorb heat energy, and we therefore see
more rapid warming over the larger Islands in RCM projections than in GCMs. Many Islands of The
Bahamas remain too small to be represented in the 50km resolution RCM and may therefore
underestimate warming in these areas.
9
Table 3.2.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in temperature for The Bahamas.
The Bahamas: Country Scale Changes in Temperature
Observed
Observed
Projected changes by the
Projected changes by the
Mean
Trend
2020s
2050s
1970-99
1960-2006
(˚C)
(change in ˚C
per decade)
Annual
25.3
0.11*
DJF
22.6
0.12
MAM
24.3
0.06
JJA
27.9
0.13*
SON
26.5
0.15*
Min
Median
Max
Min
Change in ˚C
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.7
Median
Projected changes by the
2080s
Max
Min
Change in ˚C
1.0
1.1
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.3
1.0
1.0
1.1
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.4
1.0
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.5
1.1
1.0
0.9
1.1
1.0
0.7
1.5
1.6
1.1
1.4
1.4
1.1
1.4
1.4
1.1
1.6
1.7
1.2
1.6
1.7
1.2
Median
Max
Change in ˚C
1.8
1.9
1.5
1.8
2.1
1.4
2.1
2.0
1.5
1.8
1.9
1.5
1.8
2.0
1.6
2.1
1.5
1.0
1.9
1.3
1.0
2.0
1.5
0.9
2.1
1.6
1.0
2.2
1.7
1.2
2.7
2.2
1.4
2.4
2.0
1.3
2.5
2.2
1.5
2.8
2.3
1.5
2.8
2.4
1.6
3.2
2.8
2.0
3.3
3.0
2.0
3.0
2.5
1.9
3.1
2.8
2.0
3.3
3.1
2.2
Table 3.2.2: GCM & RCM projected changes in temperature for The Bahamas under the A2 scenario.
The Bahamas: GCM and RCM Temperature comparison under A2
emissions scenario
Projected Changes by
2080
Changes in ˚C
GCM Ensemble Range
2.1
2.7
3.2
Annual
RCM (Echam4)
2.8
RCM (HadCM3)
2.7
GCM Ensemble Range
1.9
2.4
3.3
DJF
RCM (Echam4)
2.3
RCM (HadCM3)
2.8
GCM Ensemble Range
2.0
2.5
3.0
MAM
RCM (Echam4)
2.5
RCM (HadCM3)
2.7
GCM Ensemble Range
2.1
2.8
3.1
JJA
RCM (Echam4)
3.2
RCM (HadCM3)
2.7
GCM Ensemble Range
2.2
2.8
3.3
SON
RCM (Echam4)
3.2
RCM (HadCM3)
2.7
10
3.3.
Precipitation
Gridded observations of rainfall in The Bahamas do not indicate any significant or consistent trends. There
are, however, a number of particularly dry years that have occurred recently (2004, 2005 and 2006). The
large inter-annual variability in rainfall in The Bahamas makes it difficult to extract long-term trends.
GCM projections of future rainfall for The Bahamas span both overall increases and decreases, but tend
towards decreases in more models. Projected rainfall changes in annual rainfall range from -30 to +21 mm
per month (-28% to +18%) by the 2080s across the three emissions scenarios.
The overall decreases in annual rainfall projected by GCMs occur largely through decreased MAM and JJA
(early wet season) rainfall, but these decreases are offset by overall increases in SON rainfall (-26 to +63
mm per month, or -16 to +34% by 2080s). These increases in wet-season rainfall are greatest over the
southern islands of The Bahamas.
RCM projections of rainfall for The Bahamas are strongly influenced by which driving GCM provides
boundary conditions. Projections driven by ECHAM4 indicate decreases in MAM and JJA rainfall, offset by
increases in SON rainfall and thus very little change in total annual rainfall. Driven by HadCM3, the seasonal
pattern of change is very different, and projections indicate increase in DJF but substantial decreases in JJA.
These HadCM3-driven projections correspond with those that are at the most extreme end of the range of
GCM projections for drying in JJA and SON.
Table 3.3.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in precipitation for The Bahamas.
The Bahamas: Country Scale Changes in Precipitation (mm)
Observed
Observed
Projected changes by the
Projected changes by the
Mean
Trend
2020s
2050s
1970-99
1960-2006
Min
(mm per
month)
(change in
mm per
decade)
Change in mm per month
Annual
99.3
0.6
DJF
49.4
-0.9
MAM
84.4
3.1
JJA
142.1
0.7
SON
121.5
-0.2
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
-7
-15
-15
-11
-16
-11
-16
-20
-17
-14
-23
-27
-16
-14
-14
Median
0
0
-1
-3
-1
0
-3
-4
-9
-2
-5
-5
4
3
6
Max
8
7
12
8
18
19
9
9
5
22
26
12
31
22
27
11
Min
Median
2080s
Max
Change in mm per month
-19
-20
-14
-16
-17
-14
-21
-25
-17
-38
-43
-22
-11
-23
-31
-3
-4
-2
-2
-1
-2
-10
-9
-5
-11
-7
-5
3
5
0
Projected changes by the
15
10
7
24
17
15
8
8
16
15
19
4
32
29
35
Min
Median
Max
Change in mm per month
-30
-22
-15
-19
-25
-15
-28
-26
-14
-55
-55
-28
-26
-16
-14
-8
-5
0
-2
-3
0
-17
-8
-6
-21
-12
-6
6
8
7
12
21
8
27
13
16
6
2
0
5
14
16
34
63
37
Table 3.3.2: GCM & RCM projected changes in precipitation for The Bahamas under the A2 scenario.
The Bahamas: GCM and RCM Precipitation comparison under
A2 emissions scenario
Projected Changes by
2080
Changes in mm
Annual
DJF
MAM
JJA
SON
GCM Ensemble Range
RCM (Echam4)
RCM (HadCM3)
GCM Ensemble Range
RCM (Echam4)
RCM (HadCM3)
GCM Ensemble Range
RCM (Echam4)
RCM (HadCM3)
GCM Ensemble Range
RCM (Echam4)
RCM (HadCM3)
GCM Ensemble Range
RCM (Echam4)
RCM (HadCM3)
-30
-8
-2
-16
-2
3
7
-17
-26
-1
-21
-12
-51
6
24
-21
-19
-28
-55
-26
12
27
6
5
34
Table 3.3.3: Observed and GCM projected changes in precipitation (%) for The Bahamas.
The Bahamas: Country Scale Changes in Precipitation
Observed
Observed
Projected changes by the
Projected changes by the
Mean
Trend
2020s
2050s
1970-99
1960-2006
(mm per
month)
(change in %
per decade)
Annual
99.3
0.6
DJF
49.4
-1.8
MAM
84.4
3.7
JJA
142.1
0.5
SON
121.5
-0.2
Min
Median
Max
Min
% Change
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
-10
-14
-14
-19
-25
-15
-20
-26
-31
-13
-21
-25
-16
-9
-11
0
0
-1
-4
-2
0
-5
-5
-13
-2
-6
-5
3
1
4
Median
Projected changes by the
2080s
Max
Min
% Change
7
6
10
8
24
25
14
16
8
15
17
11
18
11
18
-18
-19
-13
-16
-20
-16
-34
-44
-31
-35
-39
-28
-7
-15
-20
12
-3
-5
-2
-3
-2
-3
-15
-14
-9
-13
-9
-6
2
3
0
Median
Max
% Change
12
9
6
19
20
12
14
13
26
10
17
3
22
20
28
-28
-21
-14
-18
-24
-15
-46
-41
-27
-50
-51
-26
-16
-10
-9
-8
-8
0
-2
-3
0
-23
-16
-7
-21
-17
-11
4
5
4
10
18
6
31
17
18
8
4
0
4
13
11
24
34
26
Table 3.3.4: GCM & RCM projected changes in precipitation (%) for The Bahamas under the A2 scenario.
The Bahamas: GCM and RCM Precipitation comparison under
A2 emissions scenario
Projected Changes by
2080
Changes in ˚%
Annual
DJF
MAM
JJA
SON
3.4.
GCM Ensemble Range
RCM (Echam4)
RCM (HadCM3)
GCM Ensemble Range
RCM (Echam4)
RCM (HadCM3)
GCM Ensemble Range
RCM (Echam4)
RCM (HadCM3)
GCM Ensemble Range
RCM (Echam4)
RCM (HadCM3)
GCM Ensemble Range
RCM (Echam4)
RCM (HadCM3)
-28
-18
-46
-50
-16
-8
-5
-7
-2
3
14
-23
-27
-3
-21
-22
-35
4
23
-7
10
31
8
4
24
Wind Speed
Observed mean wind speeds from the ICOADS mean monthly marine surface wind dataset demonstrate
significantly increasing trends in all seasons over the periods 1960-2006 over The Bahamas. Over the year,
the increasing trend is 0.33 ms-1 per decade. The strongest trends are seen in SON, of 0.45 ms-1 per decade.
The observed increase in Atlantic Hurricane/Tropical Storm activity (see Section 3.10) is likely to have
contributed to this strong trend in SON, but trends in other seasons indicate an underlying increase in
mean wind speeds, regardless of changes in Hurricane frequency or intensity.
Mean wind speeds generally increase in GCM projections, but not as dramatically as in the observations of
the last few decades. Projected changes range between -0.1 and +0.5 ms-1 by the 2080s. Projected
increases are greatest in MAM, ranging between -0.1 and +1.1 ms-1 by the 2080s. Wind speeds in SON
projections, by contrast to the observed data, do not show the least consistent or dramatic increases –
wind speeds in projections in SON range between -0.5 and +0.6 ms-1.
Whilst average wind speeds increase in GCM projections, the RCM projections give very mixed indications
for The Bahamas. Driven by HadCM3, the RCM indicates increases in wind speeds in JJA only (+0.3ms-1) and
decreases throughout the rest of the year, with the largest decreases, 0.9 ms-1 by 2080, in SON. Driven by
ECHAM4, the RCM simulates small increases in wind speed which correspond with mid-range changes from
the GCM ensemble.
13
Table 3.4.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in wind speed for The Bahamas.
The Bahamas: Country Scale Changes in Wind Speed
Observed
Observed
Projected changes by the
Projected changes by the
Mean
Trend
2020s
2050s
1970-99
1960-2006
-1
(ms )
Min
(change in
-1
ms per
decade)
Annual
6.5
0.33*
DJF
7.2
0.37*
MAM
6.5
0.23*
JJA
5.7
0.24*
SON
6.5
0.45*
Median
Change in ms
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
-0.3
-0.1
-0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.0
Max
Min
-1
Median
Change in ms
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.1
0.5
0.6
0.8
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.4
0.2
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.7
-0.1
-0.2
-0.2
-0.4
-0.1
-0.3
-0.1
-0.3
-0.2
-0.2
-0.3
0.0
0.1
0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
-0.1
Projected changes by the
2080s
Max
Min
-1
0.4
0.4
0.1
0.7
0.7
0.2
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.2
Median
Max
Change in ms
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
-0.3
-0.1
-0.4
0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.4
-0.2
-0.1
-0.4
-0.5
-0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.0
0.3
0.0
-1
0.5
0.4
0.2
0.5
0.4
0.5
1.1
0.9
0.5
0.7
1.1
0.3
0.2
0.6
0.0
Table 3.4.2: GCM & RCM projected changes in wind speed for The Bahamas under the A2 scenario.
The Bahamas: GCM and RCM Wind Speed comparison under
A2 emissions scenario
Projected Changes by
2080
-1
Changes in ms
GCM Ensemble Range
-0.1
0.2
0.5
Annual
RCM (Echam4)
0.1
RCM (HadCM3)
-0.3
GCM Ensemble Range
-0.3
0.2
0.5
DJF
RCM (Echam4)
0.1
RCM (HadCM3)
-0.5
GCM Ensemble Range
0.1
0.3
1.1
MAM
RCM (Echam4)
0.0
RCM (HadCM3)
-0.2
GCM Ensemble Range
-0.4
0.2
0.7
JJA
RCM (Echam4)
0.3
RCM (HadCM3)
0.3
GCM Ensemble Range
-0.4
0.0
0.2
SON
RCM (Echam4)
0.1
RCM (HadCM3)
-0.9
14
3.5.
Relative Humidity
There is no significant trend in observations from the HadCRUH dataset (1973-2003).
Relative humidity (RH) data is not available for all models in the 15-model ensemble, but projections from
those models that are available tend towards small increases in RH. However, the ensemble sub-sample
range does span both increases and decreases in RH in all seasons.
Due to the coarse spatial resolution of GCMs, the land mass of the small islands of The Bahamas is not
represented in these models and this exerts a strong influence on RH. Ocean and land surfaces respond
differently to increases in temperature due to the availability of water. Over ocean surfaces, temperature
increases result in increased evaporation of water from the surface. This not only distributes some of the
excess heat, but also results in a higher volume of atmospheric water vapour, causing higher specific
humidity, although not necessarily higher RH. Over the land surface, only a limited amount of water is
available, and therefore increased temperatures will result in an increased potential for evaporation, and
this potential increase will only be partially met by available surface moisture. This will result in a small
increase in specific humidity, but a likely decrease in RH as the air temperature increases. The
representation of the land surface in climate models therefore becomes very important when considering
changes in RH under a warmer climate, and we see a substantial disparity between the changes projected
for those Caribbean islands which appear in RCM simulations, but not GCMs. This has implications for
interpreting projections from both the RCM and GCMs for the Bahamian islands that are too small to
appear in RCMs.
RCM simulations generally indicate increases in RH in marine regions of The Bahamas, but decreases over
the land areas of the larger islands. This distinction between the response of land and ocean surfaces is
clear in RCM runs based on both ECHAM4 and HadCM3. When driven by ECHAM4, the RCM indicates
overall decrease in RH in DJF, but increases in all but the land surface areas throughout the rest of the year.
Conversely, when driven by HadCM3, the model indicates a large increase in RH in DJF, and a slight
decrease in JJA.
Table 3.5.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in relative humidity for The Bahamas.
The Bahamas: Country Scale Changes in Relative Humidity
Observed
Observed
Projected changes by the
Projected changes by the
Mean
Trend
2020s
2050s
1970-99
1960-2006
(%)
(change in %
per decade)
Annual
78.1
-0.05
DJF
77.3
0.42
MAM
77.3
-0.12
JJA
79.3
-0.23
SON
78.5
-0.24
Min
Median
Max
Min
Change in %
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
Projected changes by the
2080s
Median
Max
Min
Change in %
Median
Max
Change in %
0.0
-0.4
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
-0.2
-0.4
0.5
0.2
0.5
0.4
-0.7
-0.2
0.2
0.1
0.8
0.7
-0.8
-1.6
0.3
0.0
0.5
1.1
-0.4
-0.8
0.4
-0.1
1.6
1.0
-1.3
-1.1
0.1
-0.1
1.5
0.4
-0.7
-0.3
-0.1
-0.2
0.1
0.9
-0.2
-0.6
0.1
0.5
0.7
1.2
-0.3
-0.6
0.5
0.4
1.9
0.8
-0.3
-1.6
0.2
-0.2
0.3
0.3
-0.9
-0.4
0.3
0.1
0.6
0.3
-1.7
-1.1
-0.1
-0.2
1.0
1.7
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.7
0.7
-0.1
-0.6
0.6
0.2
1.1
1.0
-0.7
0.0
0.3
0.5
0.8
1.5
15
Table 3.5.2: GCM and RCM projected changes relative humidity for The Bahamas under the A2 scenario.
Projected changes by the
2080s
SRES A2
Min
Annual
DJF
MAM
JJA
SON
3.6.
GCM Ensemble Range
RCM (ECHAM4)
RCM (HadCM3)
GCM Ensemble Range
RCM (ECHAM4)
RCM (HadCM3)
GCM Ensemble Range
RCM (ECHAM4)
RCM (HadCM3)
GCM Ensemble Range
RCM (ECHAM4)
RCM (HadCM3)
GCM Ensemble Range
RCM (ECHAM4)
RCM (HadCM3)
Median Max
Change in %
0.6
0.7
0.5
-0.2
-1.0
0.9
0.8
1.9
1.0
0.7
0.7
-0.3
1.4
1.0
0.2
Sunshine Hours
The number of ‘sunshine hours’ per day are calculated by applying the average clear-sky fraction from
cloud observations to the number of daylight hours for the latitude of the location and the time of year.
The observed number of sunshine hours based on ISCCP satellite observations of cloud coverage indicates
statistically significant increases in sunshine hours over recent years (1983-2001) in all seasons except the
wettest season, SON. In DJF, sunshine hours have increased by 0.83 hours per decade, and in JJA and MAM
by 0.63 and 0.65 hours, respectively.
The number of sunshine hours is implied by most models to increase into the 21st century in The Bahamas,
reflecting reductions in average cloud cover fractions, although the model ensemble spans both increases
and decreases in all seasons and emissions scenarios. The changes in annual average sunshine hours are to
span -0.1 to +1.2 hours per day by the 2080s across all three scenarios. The increases are largest in JJA, with
changes of -0.2 to +1.6 hours per day by the 2080s.
Comparison between GCM and RCM projections of sunshine hours for The Bahamas shows the RCM
simulations lie in the higher end of the range of GCM changes in sunshine hours at +0.7 to +0.9 compared
with -0.2 to +1.0 in GCM ensemble. Both RCM simulations indicate the largest increase in sunshine hours in
JJA, which is in agreement with the GCM ensemble.
16
Table 3.6.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in sunshine hours for The Bahamas.
The Bahamas: Country Scale Changes in Sunshine Hours
Observed
Observed
Projected changes by the
Projected changes by the
Mean
Trend
2020s
2050s
1970-99
1960-2006
(hrs)
(change in
hrs per
decade)
Annual
5.6
0.50*
DJF
5.6
0.83*
MAM
6.1
0.65*
JJA
5.8
0.63*
SON
4.7
0.05
Min
Median
Max
Min
Change in hrs
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.2
0.0
-0.3
-0.2
-0.4
-0.3
-0.6
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.2
-0.7
-0.3
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.0
Projected changes by the
2080s
Median
Max
Min
Change in hrs
0.5
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.6
0.5
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.3
0.4
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.2
-0.4
-0.5
-0.1
0.1
-0.4
-0.2
-0.3
-0.2
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.4
0.3
0.1
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.7
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.6
1.0
0.8
0.6
1.0
0.8
1.0
0.5
0.4
0.5
Median
Max
Change in hrs
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.5
-0.3
-0.2
-0.2
-0.3
-0.1
-0.1
0.2
-0.2
-0.4
-0.2
-0.5
0.5
0.4
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.5
0.5
0.1
0.9
0.9
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.0
1.0
1.2
0.9
1.3
1.4
0.6
1.3
1.2
1.0
1.5
1.6
1.3
0.8
0.7
0.6
Table 3.6.2: GCM and RCM projected changes sunshine hours for The Bahamas under the A2 scenario.
The Bahamas: GCM and RCM Sunshine Hours comparison under
A2 emissions scenario
Projected Changes by
2080
Changes in hrs
GCM Ensemble Range
-0.2
0.5
1
Annual
RCM (Echam4)
0.9
RCM (HadCM3)
0.7
GCM Ensemble Range
-0.5
0.3
1.3
DJF
RCM (Echam4)
0.7
RCM (HadCM3)
0.5
GCM Ensemble Range
-0.2
0.5
1.3
MAM
RCM (Echam4)
0.9
RCM (HadCM3)
0.2
GCM Ensemble Range
-0.6
0.9
1.5
JJA
RCM (Echam4)
1.7
RCM (HadCM3)
1.6
GCM Ensemble Range
-0.4
0.3
0.8
SON
RCM (Echam4)
0.6
RCM (HadCM3)
0.8
17
3.7.
Sea Surface Temperatures
Sea-surface temperatures from the HadSST2 gridded dataset do not indicate statistically significant trends
in the waters of The Bahamas.
GCM projections indicate increases in sea-surface temperatures throughout the year. Projected increases
range between +0.9˚C and +2.7˚C by the 2080s, across all three emissions scenarios. Increases tend to be
fractionally higher in SON than in other seasons (1.0 to 2.9˚C by 2080). The range of projections under
single emissions scenario spans around 1.0 to 1.5˚C.
Table 3.7.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in sea surface temperature for The Bahamas.
The Bahamas: Country Scale Changes in Sea Surface Temperatures
Observed
Observed
Projected changes by the
Projected changes by the
Mean
Trend
2020s
2050s
1970-99
1960-2006
(˚C)
(change in ˚C
per decade)
Annual
26.8
0.03
DJF
25.1
0.04
MAM
25.4
0.02
JJA
28.5
0.04
SON
28
0.04
3.8.
Min
Median
Max
Min
Change in ˚C
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.5
0.4
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.5
0.3
0.4
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.7
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.6
Median
Projected changes by the
2080s
Max
Min
Change in ˚C
0.9
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.7
0.9
0.9
0.7
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.9
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
1.2
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.9
0.7
1.4
1.5
1.1
1.3
1.3
1.0
1.2
1.3
0.9
1.4
1.5
1.0
1.5
1.6
1.1
Median
Max
Change in ˚C
1.7
1.7
1.2
1.7
1.7
1.2
1.8
1.7
1.1
1.8
1.7
1.2
1.6
1.7
1.3
1.9
1.4
0.9
1.8
1.3
1.0
1.8
1.3
0.9
1.9
1.4
0.9
2.0
1.6
1.0
2.5
2.2
1.4
2.4
2.3
1.2
2.3
2.2
1.5
2.5
2.2
1.5
2.6
2.3
1.4
2.7
2.5
1.8
2.8
2.5
1.8
2.6
2.3
1.6
2.9
2.6
1.7
2.9
2.8
2.0
Temperature Extremes
‘Extreme’ hot or cold values are defined by the temperatures that are exceeded on 10% of days in the
‘current’ climate or reference period. This allows us to define ‘hot’ or ‘cold’ relative to the particular
climate of a specific region or season, and determine changes in extreme events relative to that location.
The available observed daily data does indicate statistically significant increases in ‘hot’ days and nights,
and decreases in ‘cold’ days and nights during the period 1973-2008.
GCM projections indicate increases in the frequency of ‘hot’ days and nights, with their occurrence
reaching 26-67% of days annually by the 2080s. The rate of increase varies substantially between models
for each scenario, such that under A2 the most conservative increases result in frequency of 36% by the
2080s, with other models indicating frequencies as high as 67%.
Those days/nights that are considered ‘hot ‘ for their season are projected to increase most rapidly in JJA,
occurring on 50 to 99% of days in JJA by the 2080s.
Cold days/nights occur on a maximum of 4% of days/nights by the 2080s, and do not occur at all in
projections from some models by the 2050s. Cold days/nights decrease in frequency most rapidly in JJA.
18
Table 3.8.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in temperature extremes for The Bahamas.
Observed
Observed
Mean
Trend
1970-99
1960-2006
%
Frequency
Change in
frequency
per decade
Projected changes by the 2020s
Min
Median
Max
Projected changes by the 2050s
Projected changes by the
Min
Median
Max
Future % frequency
Min
Median
Max
Future % frequency
2080s
Frequency of Hot Days (TX90p)
Annual
12.0
2.33
DJF
11.4
8.01
MAM
12.0
7.4
JJA
11.3
5.83
SON
10.2
3.06
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
26
28
24
37
41
30
26
31
22
57
56
48
33
36
27
41
39
32
50
51
35
48
48
36
74
73
57
66
69
54
47
45
38
66
64
49
67
64
41
85
81
65
82
81
72
36
32
26
61
46
32
47
46
22
78
69
49
53
41
35
59
49
38
77
69
50
75
68
45
96
93
72
89
87
63
67
61
45
90
85
68
91
85
67
99
98
83
97
93
79
40
39
33
43
46
33
43
46
34
75
77
61
68
68
56
47
44
38
59
57
45
65
62
39
86
82
64
81
79
68
44
39
31
54
44
30
58
54
28
87
82
61
73
62
49
58
49
38
71
61
42
71
64
42
97
94
73
88
86
63
66
60
45
84
78
62
89
83
60
99
98
82
96
92
76
4
3
4
2
2
3
2
2
4
0
0
0
1
1
2
5
4
6
5
4
6
4
3
6
2
1
1
2
3
4
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
3
0
1
3
0
1
3
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
3
4
1
3
3
2
2
3
0
1
3
1
1
3
4
3
4
3
2
2
2
2
3
0
0
0
1
2
3
5
5
6
5
4
7
6
4
6
0
0
0
3
4
5
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
2
3
0
1
2
0
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
3
4
1
2
3
1
2
4
0
0
1
2
2
4
Frequency of Hot Nights (TN90p)
Annual
10.4
1.96
DJF
12.0
2.11
MAM
11.6
0.34
JJA
10.8
9.41
SON
13.3
6.22
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
32
33
28
32
37
29
32
29
27
71
70
52
50
53
40
Frequency of Cold Days (TX10p)
Annual
10.9
-0.81
DJF
10.7
-1.64
MAM
13.5
3.17
JJA
10.3
1.35
SON
13.6
-0.4
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Frequency of Cold Nights (TN10p)
Annual
10.1
-2.46
DJF
12.2
-3.61
MAM
10.7
5.46
JJA
10.4
-1.06
SON
10.4
-2.81
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
1
1
2
0
0
1
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
19
3.9.
Rainfall Extremes
Changes in rainfall extremes based on peal 1- and 5-day rainfall totals, as well as exceedance of a relative
threshold for ‘heavy’ rain, were examined. ‘Heavy’ rain is determined by the daily rainfall totals that are
exceeded on 5% of wet days in the ‘current’ climate or reference period, relative to the particular climate
of a specific region or season.
Observations do not indicate statistically significant trends in any of the parameters over The Bahamas
except for an increasing trend in maximum 5-day rainfall in SON. There is large inter-annual variability in
these measures of extreme rainfall and the available observed records are not sufficiently long to identify
long-term trends.
GCM projections of rainfall extremes are mixed across the ensemble, ranging across both decreases and
increases in all measures of extreme rainfall. However, the models projections do tend towards decreases
in rainfall extremes in MAM and JJA and small increases in SON and DJF. The range of changes in the
proportion of annual rainfall during heavy events is -4 to +6% by the 2080s across all emissions scenarios
and the range of changes in 5-day maxima spans -12mm to +8mm by the 2080s.
20
Table 3.9.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in rainfall extremes for The Bahamas.
Observed
Observed
Mean
Trend
1970-99
1960-2006
Projected changes by the 2020s
Min
Median
Max
Projected changes by the 2050s
Min
Median
Max
Projected changes by the
2080s
Min
Median
Max
% total rainfall falling in Heavy Events (R95pct)
%
Annual
25.3
Change in %
per decade
1.45
DJF
MAM
JJA
SON
Change in %
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
-5
-4
-4
-5
-9
-6
-15
-20
-12
-8
-9
-7
-6
-4
-4
0
0
0
0
0
0
-5
-4
-3
-2
-3
-1
1
2
0
5
5
4
12
11
6
4
6
5
8
8
5
7
6
6
Change in %
-4
-4
-3
-8
-6
-7
-18
-14
-12
-19
-10
-10
-5
-5
-2
0
0
1
3
1
2
-6
-6
-2
-5
-4
0
0
-2
0
6
4
4
15
12
9
5
2
5
6
6
7
10
8
6
Maximum 1-day rainfall (RX1day)
mm
Change in
mm per
decade
Annual
191.7
-0.28
DJF
86.6
17.47
MAM
95.1
23.04
JJA
195.7
-39.47
SON
83.4
20.43
mm
Change in
mm per
decade
Annual
146.1
-26.25
DJF
52.9
7.68
MAM
53.9
9.14
JJA
124.1
-30.76
SON
57.4
21.86
Change in mm
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
-3
-4
-4
-4
-6
-3
-5
-7
-6
-5
-6
-2
-2
-2
-5
0
0
0
0
0
-1
-2
0
-1
-1
-1
0
0
1
0
7
9
7
9
12
3
3
5
4
5
2
7
9
9
8
Change in mm
-3
-12
-2
-4
-1
-2
-7
-10
-8
-6
-6
-8
-5
-8
-2
1
0
0
2
0
1
-2
-2
0
-2
-1
-1
1
0
0
8
8
8
10
11
6
3
1
2
5
2
7
7
6
10
Maximum 5-day Rainfall (RX5day)
Change in mm
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
A2
A1B
B1
-9
-7
-10
-7
-13
-8
-14
-12
-18
-9
-12
-6
-5
-4
-8
21
0
0
0
-2
0
-1
-4
-5
-1
-2
-4
-2
3
5
0
18
19
17
9
16
4
12
6
5
20
9
14
21
21
19
Change in mm
-9
-17
-5
-11
-7
-4
-21
-17
-12
-19
-11
-21
-16
-17
-8
2
-3
2
1
0
2
-6
-6
-2
-7
-5
-2
3
-4
2
25
16
26
17
12
13
7
4
6
13
13
18
14
13
19
3.10. Hurricanes and Tropical Storms
Historical and future changes in tropical storm and hurricane activity have been a topic of heated debate in
the climate science community. Drawing robust conclusions with regards to changes in climate extremes is
continually hampered by issues of data quality in our observations, the difficulties in separating natural
variability from long-term trends and the limitations imposed by spatial resolution of climate models.
Tropical storms and hurricanes form from pre-existing weather disturbances where sea surface
temperatures (SSTs) exceed 26˚C. Whilst SSTs are a key factor in determining the formation, development
and intensity of tropical storms, a number of other factors are also critical, such as subsidence, wind shear
and static stability. This means that whilst observed and projected increases in SSTs under a warmer
climate potentially expand the regions and periods of time when tropical storms may form, the critical
conditions for storm formation may not necessarily be met (e.g. Vecchi and Soden, 2007; Trenberth et al.,
2007), and increasing SSTs may not necessarily be accompanied by an increase in the frequency of tropical
storm incidences.
Several analyses of global (e.g. Webster et al., 2005) and more specifically North Atlantic (e.g. Holland and
Webster, 2007; Kossin et al., 2007; Elsner et al., 2008) hurricanes have indicated increases in the observed
record of tropical storms over the last 30 years. It is not yet certain to what degree this trend arises as part
of a long-term climate change signal or shorter-term inter-decadal variability. The available longer term
records are riddled with in homogeneities (inconsistencies in recording methods through time) - most
significantly, the advent of satellite observations, before which storms were only recorded when making
landfall or observed by ships (Kossin et al., 2007). Recently, a longer-term study of variations in hurricane
frequency in the last 1500 years based on proxy reconstructions from regional sedimentary evidence
indicate recent levels of Atlantic hurricane activity are anomalously high relative to those of the last oneand -a -half millennia (Mann et al., 2009).
Climate models are still relatively primitive with respect to representing tropical storms, and this restricts
our ability to determine future changes in frequency or intensity. We can analyse the changes in
background conditions that are conducive to storm formation (boundary conditions) (e.g. Tapiador, 2008),
or apply them to embedded high-resolution models which can credibly simulate tropical storms (e.g.
Knutson and Tuleya, 2004; Emanuel et al., 2008). Regional Climate Models are able to simulate weak
‘cyclone-like’ storm systems that are broadly representative of a storm or hurricane system but are still
considered coarse in scale with respect to modelling hurricanes.
The IPCC AR4 (Meehl et al., 2007) concludes that models are broadly consistent in indicating increases in
precipitation intensity associated with tropical storms (e.g. Knutson and Tuleya, 2004; Knutson et al., 2008;
Chauvin et al., 2006; Hasegawa and Emori, 2005; Tsutsui, 2002). The higher resolution models that
simulate storms more credibly are also broadly consistent in indicating increases in associated peak wind
intensities and mean rainfall (Knutson and Tuleya, 2004; Oouchi et al., 2006). We summarise the projected
changes in wind and precipitation intensities from a selection of these modelling experiments in Table
3.10.1 to give an indication of the magnitude of these changes.
With regards to the frequency of tropical storms in future climate, models are strongly divergent. Several
recent studies (e.g. Vecchi and Sodon, 2007; Bengtssen et al., 2007; Emanuel et al., 2008, Knutson et al.,
2008) have indicated that the frequency of storms may decrease due to decreases in vertical wind shear in
a warmer climate. In several of these studies, intensity of hurricanes still increases despite decreases in
frequency (Emanuel et al., 2008; Knutson et al., 2008). In a recent study of the PRECIS regional climate
model simulations for Central America and the Caribbean, Bezanilla et al., (2009) found that the frequency
22
of ‘Tropical -Cyclone-Like –Vortices’ increases on the Pacific coast of Central America, but decreases on the
Atlantic coast and in the Caribbean.
When interpreting the modelling experiments we should remember that our models remain relatively
primitive with respect to the complex atmospheric processes that are involved in hurricane formation and
development. Hurricanes are particularly sensitive to some of the elements of climate physics that these
models are weakest at representing, and are often only included by statistical parameterisations.
Comparison studies have demonstrated that the choice of parameterisation scheme can exert a strong
influence on the results of the study (e.g. Yoshimura et al., 2006). We should also recognise that the El Niño
Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a strong and well established influence on Tropical Storm frequency in the
North Atlantic, and explains a large proportion of inter-annual variability in hurricane frequency. This
means that the future frequency of hurricanes in the North Atlantic is likely to be strongly dependent on
whether the climate state becomes more ‘El-Niño-Like’, or more ‘La-Niña-like’ – an issue upon which
models are still strongly divided and suffer from significant deficiencies in simulating the fundamental
features of ENSO variability (e.g. Collins et al., 2005).
Table 3.10.1: Changes in Near-storm rainfall and wind intensity associated with Tropical storms in under global
warming scenarios.
Reference
GHG
scenario
Type of Model
Domain
A1B
Regional Climate Model
Atlantic
Knutson and Tuleya
(2004)
1%
per
year CO2
increase
Oouchi et al (2006)
A1B
9 GCMs + nested regional
model with 4 different
moist
convection
schemes.
High Resolution GCM
Knutson
(2008)
et
al.
Change in peak
wind intensity
Global
Change in nearstorm
rainfall
intensity
(+37, 23, 10)%
when averaged
within 50, 100
and 400 km of
the storm centre
+12-33%
Global
N/A
+14%
North Atlantic
+2.9%
+5-7%
+20%
3.11. Sea Level Rise
Observed records of sea level from tidal gauges and satellite altimeter readings indicate a global mean SLR
of 1.8 (+/- 0.5) mm yr-1 over the period 1961-2003 (Bindoff et al., 2007). Acceleration in this rate of
increase over the course of the 20th Century has been detected in most regions (Woodworth et al., 2009;
Church and White, 2006).
There are large regional variations superimposed on the mean global SLR rate. Observations from tidal
gauges surrounding the Caribbean basin (Table 3.11.1) indicate that SLR in the Caribbean is broadly
consistent with the global trend (Table 3.11.2).
23
Table 3.11.1: Sea level rise rates at observation stations surrounding the Caribbean Basin
Tidal Gauge Station
Bermuda
San Juan, Puerto Rico
Guantanamo Bay, Cuba
Miami Beach, Florida
Vaca Key, Florida
-1
Observed trend (mm yr )
2.04 (+/- 0.47)
1.65 (+/- 0.52)
1.64 (+/- 0.80)
2.39 (+/1 0.43)
2.78 (+/- 0.60)
Observation period
1932-2006
1962-2006
1973-1971
1931-1981
1971-2006
Source: (NOAA, 2009)
Projections of future SLR associated with climate change have recently become a topic of heated debate in
scientific research. The IPCC’s AR4 report summarised a range of SLR projections under each of its standard
scenarios, for which the combined range spans 0.18-0.59 m by 2100 relative to 1980-1999 levels (see
ranges for each scenario in Table 3.11.2). These estimates have since been challenged for being too
conservative and a number of studies (e.g. Rahmstorf, 2007; Rignot and Kanargaratnam, 2006; Horton et
al., 2008) have provided evidence to suggest that their uncertainty range should include a much larger
upper limit.
Total sea level rises associated with atmospheric warming appear largely through the combined effects of
two main mechanisms: (a) thermal expansion (the physical response of the water mass of the oceans to
atmospheric warming) and (b) ice-sheet, ice-cap and glacier melt. Whilst the rate of thermal expansion of
the oceans in response to a given rate of temperature increase is projected relatively consistently between
GCMs, the rate of ice melt is much more difficult to predict due to our incomplete understanding of icesheet dynamics. The IPCC total SLR projections comprise of 70-75% (Meehl et al., 2007a) contribution from
thermal expansion, with only a conservative estimate of the contribution from ice sheet melt (Rahmstorf,
2007).
Recent studies that observed acceleration in ice discharge (e.g. Rignot and Kanargaratnam, 2006) and
observed rates of SLR in response to global warming (Rahmstorf, 2007), suggest that ice sheets respond
highly-non linearly to atmospheric warming. We might therefore expect continued acceleration of the large
ice sheets resulting in considerably more rapid rates of SLR. Rahmstorf (2007) is perhaps the most well
cited example of such a study and suggests that future SLR might be in the order of twice the maximum
level that the IPCC, indicating up to 1.4 m by 2100.
Table 3.11.2: Projected increases in sea level rise from the IPCC AR4
Scenario
IPCC B1
IPCC A1B
IPCC A2
Rahmstorf, 2007
Global Mean Sea Level Rise by
2100 relative to 1980-1999.
Caribbean Mean Sea Level Rise
by 2100 relative to 1980-1999
(+/ 0.05m relative to global
mean)
0.18-0.38
0.13-0.43
0.21-0.48
0.16-0.53
0.23-0.51
0.18- 0.56
Up to 1.4m
Up to 1.45m
(Source: Meehl et al., 2007 contrasted with those of Rahmstorf, 2007).
3.12. Storm Surge
Changes to the frequency or magnitude of storm surge experienced at coastal locations in The Bahamas are
likely to occur as a result of the combined effects of:
24
(a)
Increased mean sea level in the region, which raises the base sea level over which a given storm
surge height is superimposed
(b)
Changes in storm surge height, or frequency of occurrence, resulting from changes in the
severity or frequency of storms
(c)
Physical characteristics of the region (bathymetry and topography) which determine the
sensitivity of the region to storm surge by influencing the height of the storm surge generated
by a given storm.
Sections 1, 3.10 and 3.11 discuss the potential changes in sea level and hurricane intensity that might be
experienced in the region under (global) warming scenarios. The high degree of uncertainty in both of
these contributing factors creates difficulties in estimating future changes in storm surge height or
frequency.
Further impacts on storm surge flood return period may include:

Potential changes in storm frequency: some model simulations indicate a future reduction in
storm frequency, either globally or at the regional level. If such decreases occur they may offset
these increases in flood frequency at a given elevation.

Potential increases in storm intensity: evidence suggests overall increases in the intensity of
storms (lower pressure, higher near storm rainfall and wind speeds) which would cause increases
in the storm surges associated with such events, and contribute further to increases in flood
frequency at a given elevation.
25
4. VULNERABILITY AND IMPACTS PROFILE FOR THE BAHAMAS
Vulnerability is defined as the “inherent characteristics or qualities of social systems that create the
potential for harm. Vulnerability is a function of exposure… and sensitivity of [the] system” (Adger, 2006;
Cutter, 1996 cited in Cutter et al. 2008, p. 599). Climate change is projected to be a progressive process and
therefore vulnerability will arise at different time and spatial scales affecting communities and sectors in
distinct ways. Participatory approaches to data collection were implemented in Abaco Island to provide
additional community-level data and field surveys in Eleuthra and Harbour Island enabled the creation of
sea level rise impact data and maps. To help in the identification and analysis of vulnerability, the following
sections discuss the implications and impacts of climate change on key sectors as they relate to tourism in
The Bahamas.
The Bahamas is already experiencing some of the effects of climate variability through damages from
severe weather systems and the decline of some coastal tourism attractions. At present severe weather
forces the closure of many hotels as travel is cancelled, and port closures disrupt cruise ship services.
Adverse rainfall and other weather conditions also cause cancellations for outdoor events (e.g. National
Park closures and many eco-tourism businesses such as kayaking) leading to a loss of revenue. There is a
spatial perception issue that if a hurricane hits one Bahamian Island potential visitors perceive that the bad
conditions have affected all of the Bahamian islands and may choose not to visit the country at all.
According to the Government of The Bahamas, the major issues of climate change are SLR, the likelihood of
more intense weather systems and periods of drought. Sea level rise is seen as having the greatest
potential impact, especially during intense storm swell conditions since human settlements and tourism
developments are mainly located along the coast, and are high risk for coastal erosion and catastrophic
events (NCCC, BEST Commission, 2005).
26
4.1.
Water Quality and Availability
4.1.1. Background
Throughout The Bahamas, freshwater is sourced mainly from subterranean freshwater lenses that rest over
brackish and saline waters (Buchan, 2000). These shallow karstic limestone aquifers are close to the land
surface at a depth of only 1.5 m (BEST, 2001), and their distribution varies according to factors including
island size, shape, climate and geology (Buchan, 2000). Groundwater resources are of variable salinity from
completely fresh to brackish, saline or hypersaline (Buchan, 2000). Other sources of water aside from
groundwater are shallow wells, trenches, pits, freshwater marshes, and rainwater catchments in lesserdeveloped areas (BEST, 2005).
Rainfall is moderate varying between 1400 mm/year in the cooler northerly islands, decreasing to 700
mm/year in the arid islands in the south (Buchan, 2000). More rainfall is experienced on larger islands and
on those that are in closer proximity to the United States mainland. The north has higher rainfall, especially
in winter because it receives moisture from cold fronts that originate in the United States of America ( Cox
et al., 2005). No freshwater rivers exist in any of the 700 islands that constitute The Bahamas partly due to
the porous nature of the limestone which diverts rainfall underground (Buchan, 2000). There are also small
lakes, but none are composed of freshwater (BEST, 2006c). The Bahamas is completely reliant on rainfall
which percolates into shallow aquifers as it is the sole source of freshwater in the country (WSC, 2011).
Freshwater is considered scarce with 66 m3/capita/year and ranked 177 out of 180 countries by the FAO in
2002 with respect to its water availability (USACE, 2004). However, although availability and distribution of
water resources presents many challenges to The Bahamas, data suggest that there is no net shortage of
freshwater (BEST, 2006c). The fresh water distribution in The Bahamas varies from island to island and is
complicated by the varying population densities. Ninety-five percent of the population live on 7 islands
(PAHO, 2007) and the main population centres are concentrated on New Providence, the location of the
capital Nassau and approximately 70% of the population, and Grand Bahama, with around 15% of the
population (USACE, 2004). In New Providence the freshwater lens is 17,500 acres with a population of
around 212 432 (205 litres per day per person), compared to Andros Island which has a freshwater lens of
338,585 acres with a population of around 7,615 (125,430 litres per day per person) (Cant, 1996 cited in
Buchan. 2000; see Table 4.1.1). The larger islands have thicker freshwater lenses as is the case with Andros,
Abaco and Grand Bahama where these lenses can be as thick as 30 m, whereas in smaller islands they can
range from just 3 to 6 m (Cox et al., 2005).
0.28
Barged supplies from
Andros
8.12
19.7
New Providence Well
Fields
8.73
Reverse Osmosis
Plant
Figure 4.1.1: Sources of Freshwater for New Providence in millions of gallons of water per day
(Source: Adapted from Cox et al., 2005, Original source: BEST, 2005)
27
Since 1976 potable water has been shipped 60 km by barge from Andros Island to New Providence as water
demands for both locals and tourists exceed the small local supply. Currently this accounts for
approximately 55% of New Providence’s water demands (see Figure 4.1.1) (Cox et al., 2005). Other means
of transporting water include the use of pipelines, which has occurred from North Eleuthera to Harbour
Island and Spanish Wells, and reverse osmosis plants which are in many of the islands to provide water to
settlements as well as hotels, restaurants and marinas (Cox et al., 2005). However, New Providence is the
only island where supply is not sufficient to cater for the local (island specific) demand (BEST, 2006c). Water
supply for domestic consumption in New Providence comes from both government and privately owned
wells and local reverse osmosis plants (Cox et al., 2005) which, together with the barged supply, provide
100% access to potable water. In 2006 there were over a dozen desalination plants operated by the WSC
spread over New Providence and 9 of the other Family Islands with four more islands expected to be
connected to these water resources (BIS, 2006b).
Overall estimates between 2001 and 2005 indicated that 96.4% of the population of The Bahamas had
access to water via household connections and other piped infrastructure (PAHO, 2007) but this figure
varies from island to island depending on the infrastructure and water programme utilised. While all of
New Providence has access to potable water, the Family Islands access stands at approximately 20% (Cox et
al., 2005). Nonetheless, the dependence on potable water is so extreme in New Providence that around
85% of the population purchases bottled water for drinking and cooking (USACE, 2004) and approximately
70% in hotels (SEDU, 2002), partly due the water produced by the WSC having a high chloride content and
distinct and disagreeable taste (SEDU, 2002).
Table 4.1.1: Comparison of Water Availability and Population for various Islands in The Bahamas*
Island
Water Available Daily per
Person 2000 Census
(Litres)**
Total Population
2000 Census
Abaco
27,318
13,174
Acklins
46,897
423
Andros
125,430
7,615
336
2,308
Cat Island
19,988
1,548
Crooked Island
23,218
341
Eleuthera, Harbour Island & Spanish Wells
3,280
11,269
Exuma & Cays
3,690
3,575
Grand Bahama
9,027
46,954
Great Inagua
3,740
1,046
Long Island
4,450
2,945
Mayaguana
11,288
262
New Providence
205
212,432
Ragged Island
660
69
San Salvador & Rum Cay
441
1,028
Bimini & the Berry Islands
Source: Adapted from (Cox et al., 2005)
*Table excludes values related to the tourists.
**Converted from Imperial Gallon = 4.55 Litres
28
The government stipulated water provider in The Bahamas is the Water and Sewerage Corporation (WSC).
However, it supplies water to just 30% of water to consumers, as much as 55% of which has been tagged as
non-revenue water. This low rate of supply is due to private operators and the abstraction of water from
private wells by consumers such as tourist developments (Spencer et al., 2010). However, since there is a
limited availability of groundwater and freshwater lenses are shallow, this unregulated abstraction could
have a significant impact on water sustainability as well as environmental and health consequences
(Spencer et al., 2010). As much as 50% of water in New Providence is lost through poor pipe infrastructure
(Strachan, 2010). In addition, there are limited options for water waste disposal, high operating costs and a
rapid rate of economic development which exacerbates problems (BEST, 2005). The waste disposal
methods employed in The Bahamas have been described by Buchan (2000) as inadequate
Between 50-60% The Bahamas’ GDP is derived from tourism and on average between 1999 and 2003 there
were between 3.5 and 4.5 million visitors (Cox et al., 2005) and was 4.6 million in 2009 (MOF, 2010). The
country has a large ship registry including major cruise lines (BEST, 2001). Water use from the tourism
sector is usually higher than that for local demand. For example, as estimated in the USACE (2004) the
water requirements of an average tourist ranges from 400 – 1,000 L per day, whereas for the local average
is around 150 – 200 L per day. To meet water requirement needs, desalination is utilised within the tourism
sector, however, such technology is more expensive. This is adapted to partially through the use of slightly
saline groundwater (Buchan, 2000).
The main stakeholders in water resource management in The Bahamas are The Water and Sewerage
Corporation (Ministry of Consumer Affairs), the Department of Physical Planning, Ministry Of Works and
Utilities, Ministry of Health, Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Local Government, Public Utilities
Commission, Joint Water Quality and Pollution Control Unit, Paradise Utilities, Grand Bahamas Utilities
Company, New Providence Development Company as well as District Councils and Town Committees
(Chase, 2008). Other stakeholders include The Bahamas Environment Science and Technology Commission,
Soft Drink Manufacturers, Bottled Water Companies and The Bahamas National Trust (Chase, 2008).
Water rates are charged according in three categories; rates for New Providence, for Family Island which
consists of all islands outside of New Providence and Grand Bahamas and then for all other islands under
residential and non-residential (See Table 4.1.2). According to a report by the Inter-American Development
Bank, tariffs by the Water and Sewerage Corporation have not increased since 1999 (Spencer et al., 2010).
Bahamians do not pay the true cost of water because cost of operations of reverse osmosis and particularly
the energy requirements for the process are very expensive (Strachan, 2010).
29
Table 4.1.2: Water Charges in The Bahamas
New Providence
Charge level
Minimum charge per quarter:
New Providence: including 3,000
gallons; All other islands:
including 2,200 gal.
Level 2 consumption charge per
1,000 gal./quarter:
New Providence: 3,000-13,000
gal.; All other islands: 2,00013,000 gal.
Level 3 consumption charge per
1,000 gal./quarter:
New
Providence:
13,000100,000 gal.; All other islands:
13,000-26,000 gal.
Level 4 consumption charge per
1,000 gal./quarter:
New Providence: >100,000 gal.;
All other islands: >26,000 gal.
Indicative annual pricing at 150 L
per day (39.58 gal.)
Indicative annual pricing at 150 L
per day (39.58 gal.)
Abaco, Eleuthera,
Exuma, San Salvador
Other islands
Residential
Nonresidential
Residential
Nonresidential
Residential
Nonresidential
$36.00
$60.00
$18.00
$25.00
$18.00
$25.00
$12.10
$13.15
$6.00
$6.72
$3.45
$3.86
$18.95
$20.95
$7.40
$8.29
$4.35
$4.87
$15.26
$15.26
$8.40
$9.41
$6.00
$6.72
$184.38
$221.77
$94.69
$110.90
$62.23
$74.50
$275.67
$322.69
$130.34
$150.83
$83.19
$97.96
NB: BS$ 1= US $1
(Source: WSC - http://www.wsc.com.bs/Waterrates.asp)
4.1.2. Vulnerability of water sector to climate change
The shallow freshwater aquifer lenses in The Bahamas are threatened by anthropogenic pollution which
includes the increased use of septic tanks, increased contamination from hazardous chemicals and
agricultural products, increased leachates from landfills and increased release of industrial wastes (BEST,
2005). These are particular concerns for the densely populated New Providence and Grand Bahama Islands.
Storm surges and canalisation for development of residential plots have also given rise to salinisation issues
which threaten freshwater supplies. SLR and storm surges as a result of more extreme weather events
including hurricanes can lead to saline intrusion of freshwater lenses. Because the majority of the islands
are low lying and a high percentage of land is located close to sea-level, issues of flooding are a cause for
concern since groundwater may be easily contaminated (BEST, 2001; Cox et al., 2005). Storm surges from
past hurricanes have already caused extensive damage to aquifers in The Bahamas, with contamination
from seawater, sewage, pesticides and petroleum products (USACE, 2004). In addition, tourism has
increased problems through both increased groundwater abstraction and increased generation of sewage
(Buchan, 2000).
Drought in The Bahamas
Decreases in precipitation are projected for many sub-tropical areas including the Caribbean region, which
is also likely to experience shorter rainy seasons and precipitation in shorter duration, intense events
interspersed with longer periods of relatively dry conditions (Bates et al., 2008). A significant increase in the
30
number of consecutive dry days has been found for the Caribbean region (Bates et al., 2008), indicating
that periods of drought are becoming increasingly common. As a result, drought management will become
a progressively large challenge, requiring a multifocal approach due to its non-structural nature and
complex spatial patterns. This makes it a difficult task to find suitable solutions to adapt to the problems
created by drought conditions (e.g. Campbell et al., 2011). Good management of the water supply system is
critical for drought mitigation, needing careful operation of water supply infrastructure to be effective (e.g.
Fang, 2011; Hyde et al., 2004; Shih and Revelle, 1994). Measures taken to mitigate the effects of drought
conditions in the Caribbean region have included the use of truck water for in-country redistribution, the
rotation of water supply, increased desalination, and the importation of water from other countries using
barges.
As previously noted, The Bahamas has been classified as a water scare country, owing to its composition of
islands which possess no rivers, lakes or other surface freshwater resources and groundwater hydrology
characterised by shallow freshwater lenses (BEST, 2001). Added to this, land management is a major issue
since the country has limited available land (The Bahamas has a total land area of 13,939 km2, less than
10% of its geographic area) and limited natural resources but heavy demand for land for tourism and
settlement. This has given rise to increased pressures on the environment and made it prone to land
degradation caused primarily by anthropogenic activity and climatic variations (BEST, 2006c). Due to
predicted increases in temperature, The Bahamas Initial National Communication to the UNFCCC expects
droughts in areas already prone to drought conditions (BEST, 2001). Additionally, GCM projections predict a
tendency for decreases in precipitation in The Bahamas by as much as 30mm per month. On a more
localised level, RCM projections indicate moderate decreases in total annual rainfall (See Section 3). This is
quite significant considering the water scarcity issues the country already faces.
In a country with such a fragmented distribution (29 major islands and 661 cays), the development of public
utilities infrastructure crucial to maintaining a high standard of living is difficult. Drought is experienced in
the south-eastern islands, which exacerbates inadequate water supplies. Additionally, the northern islands
have cooler temperatures which, combined with low annual rainfall, can result in drought conditions
(NCCC-BEST, 2005). The Bahamas Initial National Communication to the UNFCCC states an expected
increase in the dependence on imported water supplies (BEST, 2001).
Saline intrusion of freshwater lenses in The Bahamas
Coastal aquifers are threatened by seawater intrusion with rising sea levels, exacerbated by a decrease in
groundwater recharge through over-abstraction and decreasing precipitation (Bates et al., 2008; Lewsey et
al., 2004; Werner and Simmons, 2009). A rise in sea level as little as 0.1 m may cause a decrease in aquifer
thickness of more than 10 m (Bobba, 2002), leading to substantial declines in freshwater availability.
Reductions in groundwater recharge to inland aquifers can also lead to seawater intrusion if they are next
to saline aquifers (Chen et al., 2004), indicating a potential knock-on effect where coastal aquifers become
saline due to sea-level rise, then neighbouring aquifers experience saltwater intrusion during dry periods
with low groundwater recharge. With global average sea levels found to be rising at a rate of 1.8 ± 0.3 mm
per year (White et al., 2005) and with rates increasing (Church and White, 2006) coastal aquifers may be
severely impacted by saltwater intrusion and many countries may lose vital water resources.
Storm surges from hurricanes can also cause extensive damage to aquifers (Anderson, 2002), the risk of
which will increase as higher sea-levels reduce the level of the storm-surge required for contamination to
occur. In the Caribbean, sea levels have been observed to have risen between 1.5 and 3 mm per year (see
Section 3: Climate Modelling). Factors that increase the vulnerability of aquifers to saline intrusion include
(i) their proximity to the sea, (ii) increasing abstractions due to rising demand from domestic, agricultural
31
and industrial uses (Karanjac, 2004), and (iii) declining groundwater recharge through reduced precipitation
or an increased proportion of surface runoff through precipitation occurring in higher-intensity, shorterduration events (Bates et al., 2008) or decreased infiltration of water through land-cover changes
agriculture (Scanlon et al., 2005; Zhang and Schilling, 2006).
Groundwater extraction has been taking place in The Bahamas since 1927. Groundwater resources are
particularly important in The Bahamas as they supply most of the country’s water needs. Trenches and
bore wells are the main extraction points for water from freshwater lenses but large scale extraction from
trenches is cheaper and easier to monitor than from bore wells (Cox et al., 2005). There are over 10,000
wells in New Providence that to a great extent are private and managed independently from the WSC
operations (SEDU, 2002), which leads to uncontrolled abstraction. The lenses are also threatened by
improper planning as occurs when canals and marinas are excavated through beaches (Strachan, 2010).
Nassau’s water, which is sourced from Andros island, comes from North Andros Water resources (aquifer)
and are collectively called the Barging Scheme Wellfields which consists of the New and the Old Wellfields.
In 2004, these were capable of producing 8.46 and 12.33 million litres of water per day, respectively
(UNESCO, 2008).
The freshwater resources of The Bahamas are particularly vulnerable because more than 80% of the land
area is just one meter or less above sea level (BEST, 2001). Freshwater lenses on the islands are expected to
shrink as a result of decreased precipitation, SLR and indiscriminate abstraction. Sea level rise of around
1.5 to 3 mm per year has been observed at tidal gauging stations around the Caribbean and any subtle
change could have exponential consequences for the country. The freshwater lenses in The Bahamas are
already very vulnerable because more than 90% rest within 1.5 m from the surface of the land (WSC, 2011)
and if projected sea level rise of 0.18 to 0.56m according to IPCC predictions by the year 2100 under the A2
Scenario or higher end scenarios of 1.45m does occur, the consequences to The Bahamas are clear. This
rise in seal level could be temporary or the land could be permanently reclaimed by the sea. During storm
surge events chloride levels can increase as they did during Hurricane Frances which has to be remediated
(UNESCO, 2008). Further, higher sea levels will lead to the fresh water lens being closer to the surface of
the land. This would expose the freshwater resources to increased evapotranspiration, leading to an
increased risk of salinisation (BEST, 2001).
Flooding and water quality in The Bahamas
While GCM modelling projections indicate an overall tendency for decreases in overall precipitation across
the Caribbean region (see Section 3 Climate Modelling), excluded from these projections is the potential of
an increase in the frequency and intensity of storm events with associated heavy rainfall (Frei et al., 1998;
Min et al., 2011), including those associated with hurricanes. Research by Emanuel (2005) shows a strong
correlation between hurricane size and sea surface temperature, suggesting an upward trend in hurricane
destructive potential. Statistical analysis (Trenberth, 2005) and modelling (Knutson and Tuleya, 2004)
suggest that hurricane intensity will increase, with the north Atlantic Ocean in particular showing an
increasing trend in storm frequency (Deo et al., 2011).
Intense rainfall from storm events may only last a few hours, but can result in serious rapid-onset flooding,
particularly when they occur in catchments that are small, steep or highly urbanised, as is the case in the
much of the Caribbean region. Floods are a particular problem for water resources because, aside from the
potential for loss of life and property, they can affect water quality and have implications for sanitation and
cause serious soil erosion. Flooding erodes topsoil along with animal waste, faeces, pesticides, fertilisers,
sewage and garbage, which may then contaminate groundwater sources as well as marine areas (Poesen,
2003).
32
In The Bahamas State of the Environment Report it is noted that “Extensive damage to landscape,
particularly shoreline erosion in addition to flooding and structural damage, is usually experienced” (Cox et
al., 2005). Hurricanes result in extreme waves which are particularly destructive at high tides (ICFC, 2002)
but storm surges have been known to cause the most flood damage (BEST, 2001). Hurricanes, tropical
storms and other heavy-rain events may result in water quality being compromised which could be
compounded by land degradation issues (BEST, 2001). Current development patterns combined with the
low-lying topography (80% of the island is just 1.5 m above sea level) also make The Bahamas vulnerable
and even structures that are meant to protect the coasts can have adverse effects. For instance, sea walls
which are built too high are not only unable to support the water load placed on them, but also result in
trapped water which contributes to flooding problems (ICFC, 2002) and can further contribute to the
overall process of agricultural soils salinisation (BEST, 2001). The water system is also vulnerable due to the
porous nature of the limestone substrate which makes contamination more likely (Buchan, 2000; ICFC,
2002).
On average, at least 3 hurricanes pass within 100 miles of The Bahamas annually (BEST, 2001) and linked to
this it is expected that episodes of sea flooding, inundation and the resultant salinisation of freshwater will
increase (ICFC, 2002). The costs of damage to infrastructure such as pipelines and storage tanks (and
decaying drainage infrastructure) and disruptions at pumping stations and filtration system pumps that
result due to electricity outages (which lack standby generators) also create water supply issues during
hurricanes and heavy rains (USACE, 2004). Hurricane Frances caused storm surges of 3.5 – 4.5 m which
caused flooding that affected water supplies among other infrastructure in Abaco and Grand Bahama
(Jones, 2005).
Flood management initiatives in The Bahamas include wetland protection and the use of hard engineering
structures such as sea walls, culverts, canals, and man-made ponds. However, flood plain maps of The
Bahamas need to be developed and the storm surge atlas of the islands is incomplete (USACE, 2004).
Stormwater management is not developed as has been stated in a stormwater report “the Bahamian
government does not currently have capacity for stormwater management, and that non-regulatory
approaches to stormwater management could provide more feasible short-term solutions” (Elwell et al.,
2008). To prevent flooding occurring, the WSC have proposed to develop “surface drainage systems and
raise road and plot levels (USACE, 2004).
33
4.2.
Energy Supply and Distribution
4.2.1. Background
A global perspective
Tourism is a significant user of energy and a concomitant contributor to emissions of greenhouse gases. In
various national comparisons, tourism has been identified as one of the most energy-intense sectors, which
moreover is largely dependent on fossil fuels (e.g. Gössling et al. 2005, Patterson 2003). Likewise, the
growing energy intensity of economies in the Caribbean has caused concern among researchers (e.g.
Francis et al. 2010).
Globally, tourism causes 5% of emissions of CO2, the most relevant greenhouse gas. Considering the
radiative forcing of all greenhouse gases, tourism’s contribution to global warming increases to 5.2-12.5%
(Scott et al. 2010). The higher share is a result of emissions of nitrous oxides (NOx) as well as water leading
to the formation of aviation-induced clouds (AIC), which cause additional radiative forcing. The range in the
estimate is primarily attributed to uncertainties regarding the role of AIC in trapping heat (Lee et al. 2009).
Aviation is consequently the most important tourism-subsector in terms of its impact on climate change,
accounting for at least 40% (CO2) of the contribution made by tourism to climate change. The sector is
followed by cars (32% of CO2), accommodation (21%), activities (4%), and other transport (3%), notably
cruise ships (1.5%).
In the future to 2050, emissions from tourism are expected to grow considerably. Based on a business-asusual scenario for 2035, which considers changes in travel frequency, length of stay, travel distance, and
technological efficiency gains, UNWTO-UNEP-WMO (2008) estimate that emissions will increase by about
135% compared to 2005. Similar figures have been presented by the World Economic Forum (WEF 2009).
Aviation will remain the most important emissions sub-sector of the tourism system, with expected
emission growth by a factor 2-3. As global climate policy will seek to achieve considerable emission
reductions in the order of 50% of 1990 emission levels by 2050, aviation, and tourism more generally, will
be in stark conflict with achieving global climate goals, possibly accounting for a large share of the
sustainable emissions budget (Figure 4.2.1).
34
Figure 4.2.1: Global CO2 emission pathways versus unrestricted tourism emissions growth
(Source: Scott et al., 2010.)
Lines A and B in Figure 4.2.1 represent emission pathways for the global economy under a -3% per year (A)
and -6% per year (B) emission reduction scenario, with emissions peaking in 2015 (A) and 2025 (B)
respectively. Both scenarios are based on the objective of avoiding a +2°C warming threshold by 2100 (for
details see Scott et al. 2010). As indicated, a business-as-usual scenario in tourism, considering current
trends in energy efficiency gains, would lead to rapid growth in emissions from the sector (line C). By 2060,
the tourism sector would account for emissions exceeding the emissions budget for the entire global
economy (intersection of line C with line A or B).
Achieving emission reductions in tourism in line with global climate policy will consequently demand
considerable changes in the tourism system, with a reduction in overall energy use, and a switch to
renewable energy sources. Such efforts will have to be supported through technology change, carbon
management, climate policy, behavioural change, education and research (Gössling, 2010). Carbon taxes
and emission trading are generally seen as key mechanisms to achieve emission reductions. Destinations
and tourism stakeholders consequently need to engage in planning for a low-carbon future.
The Caribbean perspective
It is widely acknowledged that the Caribbean accounts for only 0.2% of global emissions of CO2, with a
population of 40 million, i.e. 0.6% of the world’s population (Dulal et al. 2009). Within the region, emissions
are however highly unequally distributed between countries (Figure 4.2.2). For instance, Trinidad &
Tobago, as an oil-producing country, has annual per capita emissions reaching those of high emitters such
as the USA (25 t CO2). The Cayman Islands (7 t CO2 per capita per year) are emitting in the same order as
countries such as Sweden. Bahamas is emitting considerably more (6.3 t CO2) on a per capita basis than the
world annual average of 4.3 t CO2. In the future, global emissions have to decline considerably below 4.3 t
CO2 per year – the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggests a decline in emissions by
20% by 2020 (IPCC 2007), corresponding to about 3 t CO2 per capita per year, a figure that also considers
global population growth. While there is consequently room for many countries in the region to increase
per capita emissions, including in particular Haiti, many of the more developed countries in the Caribbean
will need to adjust per capita emission budgets downwards, i.e. reduce national emissions in the mediumterm future.
35
Figure 4.2.2: Per capita emissions of CO2 in selected countries in the Caribbean, 2005
(Source: Hall et al. 2009, based on UNSD, 2009)
Important in the context of this report is that in most Caribbean countries, tourism is a major contributor to
emissions of greenhouse gases (Simpson et al. 2008; see also country reports in the Risk Atlas). As these
emissions are not usually quantified, however, the purpose of this assessment is to look in greater detail
into energy use by sector.
The Bahamas
Tourism is a mainstay of The Bahamas economy, with expenditures totalling US $1,948 million in 2009
(UNWTO, 2010), consequently generating a large share of GDP: 60% according to NEPC (2008), including
tourism-related construction and manufacturing, though only 26% of GDP ($7.538 million in 2010) if based
on the CIA World Factbook (2011). Tourism is also said to employ directly and indirectly 50% of the
workforce (BEST, 2001). The Bahamas is now ranked 49th in the global comparison of per capita GDP, i.e.
before countries such as New Zealand, and right behind Spain and Israel, with a per capita GDP of
US $28,600 (comparison based on purchasing power parities, 2010 estimate; CIA World Factbook, 2011). As
a service-based economy with a mainstay in tourism, The Bahamas is becoming increasingly energy intense
at a projected rate of 8% per year in the period 2008-2013, with imported petroleum products covering
99% of consumer energy demand (NEPC, 2008). Oil imports for local consumption is estimated to have
exceeded US $1 billion in 2008 (NEPC, 2008), with imports of 20,560 bbl/day, which would correspond to
about 0.943 Mt of oil or emissions of roughly 3 Mt CO2 in 2009 (estimate).
Currently, renewable energy plays no role in The Bahamas. The Bahamas Electricity Corporation is the
major power company in the islands, operating 29 generating plants (28 run on diesel, one on gas). These
have a combined capacity of 438 MW (NEPC, 2008). In 2007, The Bahamas Electricity Corporation used
heavy fuel oil to generate 68% of electricity and automotive diesel oil to generate 32% of electricity.
Another 142 MW installed generating capacity are run by the Grand Bahama Power Company Limited on
the island of Grand Bahama, including a 27 MW diesel plant, two gas turbines (35 MW) and a 75 MW steam
plant.
36
There appear to be no statistics detailing the use of energy in The Bahamas, though reporting to UNFCCC in
2001 (BEST, 2001) shows that in 1994, some 32.9% of fuels used were gas/dieses oil, followed by gasoline
(30.5%) and residual fuel oil (bunker fuels) (25.9%). Jet kerosene (3.3%) and LPG (4.1%) were less
important.
Table 4.2.1: Fuel imports into The Bahamas in thousands of barrels of energy, 1990-1994
Fuel Type
Gasoline
Jet Kerosene
Gas and diesel oil
Residual Fuel Oil (Bunker C)
LPG
Other Oils
1990
1287
187
1759
879
156
225
1991
1327
141
1595
787
201
381
1992
1347
120
1382
974
217
34
1993
1345
126
1083
1537
164
24
1994
1303
148
1301
1442
160
33
% Total
30.5
3.3
32.9
25.9
4.1
3.2
(Source: BEST, 2001)
Energy use translated into emissions of 1,9 Mt of emissions of CO2 in 1994 (Table 4.2.2), a figure that would
have increased to roughly 3 Mt CO2 in 2009, based on an estimated use of 0.943 Mt of oil imported in 2009
and a conversion factor of 3.2.
Table 4.2.2: Estimated emissions of CO2 from fossil fuel energy use in kt, 1990 & 1994
Fuel Type
Gasoline
Jet Kerosene
Gas and diesel oil
Residual Fuel Oil (Bunker C)
LPG
Other Oils
Total (Gg Co2)
1990
470.7
55.0
802.4
424.8
39.7
101.5
1894.2
1994
476.5
43.6
593.5
696.9
40.8
14.9
1866.2
% Total
25.2
2.6
37.1
29.8
2.1
3.1
(Source: BEST, 2001)
It is difficult to identify the share of tourism in national energy use based on this data. While jet kerosene
(domestic) is identified at 2.6% of the total, and bunker fuels at 29.8%, it is unclear which share of energy is
used in hotels or for tourist activities. The situation becomes further complicated when international
bunker fuels are considered, which are not part of national greenhouse gas inventories (Table 4.2.3). These
accounted for 0.34 Mt CO2 (aviation) and 0.31 Mt CO2 (marine bunkers) respectively, though it is unclear
how their use has increased since 1994.
Table 4.2.3: CO2 emissions from international bunkering in The Bahamas (kt)
Aviation
Marine
Total all Bunkers
1990
492
404
896
1994
341
305
645
% Total
54
46
(Source: BEST, 2001)
In the absence of detailed data on fuel use in tourism, Table 4.2.4 provides a combined top-down and
bottom-up analysis to derive an estimate of emissions in this sector.
Table 4.2.4 shows the distribution of energy use by tourism sub-sector. Note, however, that this estimate is
based on data with considerable uncertainties, including extrapolations from 1994-2009. Results indicate
that emissions from tourism accounted for 1.5 Mt CO2 in 2009. Excluding the share of bunker fuels
37
bunkered abroad to fly tourists to The Bahamas (0.378 Mt), tourism would account for about 36% of
national emissions of 3 Mt CO2.
Table 4.2.4: Assessment of CO2-emissions from tourism in Bahamas, data for various years
Tourism
sector
1)
Aviation
sub-
2)
Jet kerosene
3)
Road transport
4)
Cruise ships
5)
Accommodation
6)
Activities
7)
Waste
Sub-total
Indirect
energy
use (factor 1.15)
Total
Energy use
Emissions
%
Assumptions
0.242 Mt fuel
0.756 Mt CO2
50
0.058 Mt fuel
0.008 Mt fuel
0.062 Mt fuel
107 GWh
-
0.180 Mt CO2
0.027 Mt CO2
0.200 Mt CO2
0.107 Mt CO2
0.036 Mt CO2
0.001 Mt CO2
12
2
13
7
2
<1
15% non-tourism related freight & same-day visits
Fuel use based on national bunker statistics
Including tourists, not day visitors
Bunkers for cruise ships
Based on energy statistics from Barbados
Global average
Inventory submitted to UNFCCC, from methane
1.307 Mt CO2
0.196 Mt CO2
86
15
1.503 Mt CO2
100
To account for life-cycle emissions
1) Aviation fuels: it is unclear how fuel use for aviation has increased since 1994 (Table 4.2.3), and the growth estimate is thus
based on the observed increase of tourist arrivals in this period by about 31% (from 3.5 million to 4.6 million in 2009).
Consequently, it is assumed that emissions from aviation have increased from 0.341 Mt CO 2 to 0.447 Mt CO2. Deducting a share
of 15% for non tourism-related freight and same-day visitors, this results in 0.378 Mt of CO2. Calculated for the share of visitors
arriving by air (1.252 million), emissions per tourist arriving by air would amount to 0.3 t CO 2 (considering only bunker fuels
bunkered in The Bahamas, i.e. about twice this amount is used for the return trip). Multiplied by a factor 2, to also include the
arrival, this would result in energy use of 0.242 Mt of fuel and emissions of 0.756 Mt CO 2. Note that this is not the share of
emissions associated to The Bahamas (UNFCCC legal framework), rather than the amount reflecting the tourism system’s
energy- and emissions intensity.
2) According to BEST (2001), 0.044 Mt of jet fuel where used in 1994. Even this share is extrapolated, based on the assumption
that fuel use has increased by 31% by 2009. Consequently, fuel use for domestic air transport has increased to 0.058 Mt,
corresponding to emissions of 0.180 Mt CO2.
3) Road Transport: 1.327 million international tourist arrivals in 2009 (UNWTO 2010), with each tourist travelling an assumed 150
pkm on the island during the stay. At an assumed average of 0.133 kg CO2 per pkm (50% occupancy rate; UNWTO-UNEP-WMO
2008), emissions are in the order of 20 kg CO2 (corresponding to about 8 l of diesel) per tourist, totalling 0.027 Mt CO 2, or about
0.008 Mt of fuel. Cruise tourists are not included, as these are day visitors not likely to engage in longer trips.
4) According to BEST (2001), marine bunker fuel use resulted in emissions of 0.305 Mt CO2 in 1994. Even for this value a 31%
growth rate is assumed, resulting in 0.400 Mt CO2. As it is unknown which share of bunker fuels is used by cruise ship, a 50%
share is here considered, i.e. 0.200 Mt CO2, or
5) According to a study carried out in Barbados in 2010, hotels (n=22) used on average 22 kWh of energy per guest night. This
value is used for Bahamas. At 4.868 million nights, energy use would correspond to 107 GWh. Electricity production is assumed
to be less efficient in Bahamas, and a value of 1 kg CO2 per kWh is assumed here, resulting in emissions of 0.107 Mt CO2.
6) Activities are included with the global assumption of 27 kg CO2 per tourist, as provided in UNWTO-UNEP-WMO 2008. Given the
energy-intense character of many activities in tropical environments, including boat trips, this value may be conservative. The
1.327 million tourists would thus have caused emissions from activities corresponding to 0.036 Mt CO 2. As energy use for
activities will be partially fossil fuel, and partly electricity based, it is difficult to translate these values into energy use.
7) Inventory submitted to UNFCCC, BEST (2001: 40), figure for 1994.
(Source: Chenact, 2010; BEST, 2001; DEFRA, 2010; UNWTO-UNEP-WMO, 2008; UNWTO, 2010)
38
4.2.2. Trends in energy use in Bahamas
Along with growth in demand, an increase in energy prices is anticipated. Current generating capacity in
Bahamas is approximately 580 MW (2008). Based on the assumption of an 8% annual growth in peak
electricity demand, Bahamas will require approximately 852 MW of installed capacity by 2013 (NEPC 2008).
Though not including specific targets, the Government of the Commonwealth of The Bahamas has defined
its National Energy Vision as:
The Bahamas will become a world leader in the development and implementation of
sustainable energy opportunities, by aggressively re-engineering our legislative, regulatory,
and institutional frameworks; retooling our human resources; and implementing a diverse
range of well researched and regulated, environmentally sensitive and sustainable energy
programmes and initiatives, built upon our geographical (both proximity and diversity),
climatic (sun, wind, and sea), and traditional economic strengths (tourism and banking).
(NEPC 2008: 4)
The following sections will present and discuss policy targets as currently envisaged by The Bahamas to
reduce the islands’ dependency on imported oil and concomitant leakage of economic resources.
Reducing energy use and emissions
The Government of The Bahamas is aware of its enormous dependence on fossil fuels (NEPC 2008), and the
need to increasingly use renewable energies to meet its energy demand. The major obstacle is currently
seen in the fact that the country’s Electricity Act does not foresee the use of renewable energies: “the legal
and regulatory framework of the energy sector and fiscal incentives would need to be reviewed and
amended before any investments for commercial applications” (NEPC 2008: 8).
At the same time, renewable energy is becoming more economically competitive, due to falling production
costs and the increasing price of oil. Nevertheless, expansion of renewable energy is prohibited by a
number of obstacles, such as the pricing structure of the government, which sets low prices for electricity
and a single pricing structure throughout The Bahamas (NEPC 2008). Plans to expand renewable energy
generation include wind, waste-to-energy, and ocean thermal. Currently, however, none of the islands’
wind, waste-to-energy, or ocean thermal potential has been assessed. Furthermore, the government’s
priority list includes energy security and access to energy, energy regulation, energy efficiency and
conservation, energy economics, renewable technologies and “global opportunities”, but little work
appears to have been done to implement change in the energy system. On the contrary, barriers to change
are seen to include the lack of regulatory framework; technological maturity delays; low technical ability to
acquire and/or exploit the available sources; public awareness, financial resources, the high relative cost of
renewable energy and low private sector involvement (NEPC 2008). To move forward, NEPC (2008)
suggests the following short- (1-5 years), medium- (5-10 years), and long-term (10-20 years) targets.
Short-term targets
 Completion of data gap analysis on the various sectors, particularly the transportation sector
 Complete phase-out of incandescent light bulbs and their replacement with mercury-free compact
fluorescent light bulbs (CFL) by 2010
 Investigation and implementation of waste-to-energy technology for New Providence
 Investigate the option of combining heat and power and cogeneration type technologies
 Explore the use of biofuels
39






Develop a means to measure the average annual unit cost of each form of energy consumed by
sector and geographic area ($/gallon, $/kWh, $/bbl)
Develop a means to measure and track the annual national energy bill and the impact on the
economy
Develop a regulatory framework to monitor, assess fossil fuel leakage, reduce losses of imported
products and conserve resources of products imported for domestic consumption
Develop a means to measure the economic impact of the annual national expenditure on
traditional sources of energy (e.g. portions multiplied locally: number of jobs and estimated
payroll); percentage of raw materials and other consumer goods and services procured locally; and
percentage of industry locally owned
Introduce an integrated traffic management system and public transport system:
o Reduce average commute times on New Providence by 20% by 2010
o Increase ridership of public transport to 10-20% by 2010
o Employ advanced energy efficient lighting systems in public spaces supported by signage
and traffic management systems
Reduce public buildings energy usage by 30% by 2010
Medium-term targets
 Increase the penetration of renewable energy sources in the Commonwealth to 10- 20% of supplies
 Deploy renewable energy technologies in several small communities with >50% of power from
renewable sources
 Increase fuel efficiency of motor vehicles to 30–35 mpg for 70% of licensed vehicles through the
application of incentives to import and use more efficient vehicles in private and private sector
transport
 Reduce dependence on imported fuel oils by:
o Increased building energy efficiency by introducing standards in public buildings for cooling
public spaces, heating water, lighting and the deployment of the highest energy star ratings
of equipment
o Increased use of solar hot water systems to 20 to 30% of all households
o Increased efficiency of cooling systems and increasing SEER ratings
o Increasing the deployment and usage of energy efficient lighting systems and
o fenestration systems (windows) in public buildings
o increased public awareness and education on RE potential and usage
o Requiring all Government financed homes and buildings use, install, operate and maintain
solar hot water systems
 Develop pilot and demonstration systems for residential cooling using reverse thermal gradient in
low cost housing estates
 Assess the Commonwealth’s ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) potential in municipal-scale
power systems and develop a pilot activity in this regard
 Assess the Commonwealth’s wave, tide and wind potential as well as identify potential sites for
pilot and or demonstration facilities
 Assess the Commonwealth’s biofuels potential assessed for the islands of Grand Bahama, Andros
and Abaco
 Develop a means to estimate the average annual unit cost of alternative sources of energy
 Develop a means to measure the economic impact of the annual national expenditure on
alternative sources of energy e.g., portions multiplied locally: number of jobs and payroll;
40

percentage of raw materials and other consumed goods and service procured locally; and the
percentage of industry locally owned
Develop filters to achieve the optimum level of local participation in any energy entity that should
be pursued during a period of ownership transition, e.g., cost and pace of change of technology,
capital requirements, existence of qualified Bahamian resources, access to supporting supply and
technical resources, compliance with multi-national treaties
Long-term targets
 All new installations of water heaters are solar water heaters
 Develop a programme to pursue cost-effective opportunities in reducing energy consumption
 Develop a programme to minimise greenhouse gas emissions
 Establish a funding mechanism, sources for energy use and constant technology innovations and
the engagement of the private sector through private/ public partnerships in the expansion,
upgrade and renewal of the energy services infrastructure
 Develop extended targets for changes in the energy mix based on extended unit cost and economic
impact estimates by energy source, informed by local experiences and historical data
(Source: NEPC 2008)
It is notable that the various measures suggested above do not specifically address aviation and shipping,
which are likely to be the two single most relevant fuel-consuming sectors in The Bahamas. Given expected
growth rates in fuel consumption, it is thus unlikely that measures as envisaged by the government will lead
to significant relative reductions in fuel use, and absolute fuel use is consequently poised to grow.
4.2.3. Vulnerability of the energy sector to climate change
Two impacts related to energy and emissions are of relevance for the tourism sector and the wider
economy. First of all, energy prices have fluctuated in the past, and there is evidence that the cost of oil on
world markets will continue to increase. Secondly, if the international communities’ climate objective of
stabilising temperatures at 2°C by 2100 is taken seriously, both regulation and market-based instruments
will have to be implemented to cut emissions of greenhouse gases. Such measures would affect the cost of
mobility, with in particular air transport being a highly energy- and emission-intense sector. The following
sections will discuss past and future energy costs, as well as the challenges of global climate policy.
Energy costs
High and rising energy costs should self-evidently lead to interest in more efficient operations, but this does
not appear to be the case in tourism more generally. Since the turn of the 19th century, world oil prices only
once exceeded those of the energy crisis in 1979 after the Iranian revolution. Even though oil prices
declined because of the global financial crisis in 2008 (Figure 4.2.3) – for the first time since 1981 (IEA 2009)
- world oil prices have already begun to climb again in 2009, and are projected to rise further. The
International Energy Agency (IEA 2010) projects for instance, that oil prices will almost double between
2009-2035 (in 2009 prices). Notably, Figure 4.2.3 shows the decline in oil prices in 2009; in March 2011,
Bloomberg reported Brent spot prices exceeding US $120/barrel.
41
Figure 4.2.3: Crude oil prices 1869-2009
(Source: after WTRG Economics, 2010)
The International Energy Agency (IEA 2010) anticipates that even under its New Policies Scenario, which
favours energy efficiency and renewable energies, energy demand will be 36% higher in 2035 than in 2008,
with fossil fuels continuing to dominate demand. At the same time there is reason to believe that ‘peak oil’,
i.e. the maximum capacity to produce oil, may be passed in the near future. The UK Energy Research Centre
(2009), for instance, concludes in a review of studies that a global peak in oil production is likely before
2030, with a significant risk of a peak before 2020. Note that while there are options to develop alternative
fuels, considerable uncertainties are associated with these options, for instance with regard to costs,
safety, biodiversity loss, or competition with food production (e.g. Harvey and Pilgrim 2011). Rising costs
for conventional fuels will therefore become increasingly relevant, particularly for transport, the sector
most dependent on fossil fuels with the least options to substitute energy sources. Within the transport
sector, aviation will be most affected due to limited options to use alternative fuels, which have to meet
specific demands regarding safety and energy-density (cf. Nygren et al. 2009, Upham et al. 2009). Likewise,
while there are huge unconventional oil resources, including natural gas, heavy oil and tar sands, oil shales
and coal, there are long lead times in development, necessitating significant investments. The development
of these oil sources is also likely to lead to considerably greater environmental impacts than the
development of conventional oil resources (IEA, 2009).
These findings are relevant for the tourism system as a whole because mobility is a precondition for
tourism. Rising oil prices will usually be passed on to the customer, a situation evident in 2008, when many
airlines added a fuel surcharge to plane tickets in order to compensate for the spike in oil prices (Sorensen,
2008). Increased travel costs can lead to a shift from long haul- to shorter-haul destinations. The cost of
energy is one of the most important determinants in the way people travel, and the price of oil will
influence travel patterns, with some evidence that in particular low-fare and long-haul flights are
susceptible to changes in prices (e.g. Mayor and Tol, 2008). Moreover, it deserves mention that oil prices
are not a simple function of supply and demand, rather than involving different parameters such as longterm contracts and hedging strategies, social and political stability in oil producing countries as well as the
42
global security situation more generally. This is well illustrated in the volatility of oil prices in the five-year
period 2002-2009, when the world market price of aviation fuel oscillated between a low of US $25 in 2002
(Doganis, 2006) and US $147 in mid-2008 (Gössling and Upham 2009).
The huge rise in oil prices, which was not expected by most actors in tourism, had a severe impact
particularly on aviation. As late as December 2007, IATA projected the average 2008-price of a barrel of oil
at US$87, up 6% from the average price level in 2007. In early 2008, IATA corrected its projection of fuel
prices to an average of US $106 per barrel for 2008, an increase of 22% over its previous estimate.
However, in July 2008, oil prices reached US $147 per barrel, and IATA corrected its forecast for average oil
prices in 2008 to almost US $142 per barrel, a price 75% higher than a year ago (IATA 2009). In autumn
2008, again seemingly unexpected by the overwhelming majority of actors in tourism, the global financial
system collapsed due to speculation of financial institutions with various forms of investment. As a result,
the global economy went into recession, and by the end of 2008, oil prices had reached a low of US $40 per
barrel.
Fuel price volatility, in late 2008 exceeding 30% of operational costs (IATA 2009, see Figure 4.2.4), had a
range of negative impacts for airlines. Before the financial crisis, it appeared as if low-fare carriers would be
severely affected by high fuel prices, with even profitable airlines reporting falling profits, grounded aircraft
and cancelled routes: high fuel prices had clearly affected the perception of travellers to fly at quasi-zero
costs (cf. Gössling and Upham 2009). However, when fuel costs declined because of the financial crisis, lowcost carriers were apparently seen by many travellers as the only airlines still offering flights at reasonable
prices, thus reversing passenger choices to the disadvantage of the flag carriers. These examples show that
high and rising oil prices, as well as price volatility can significantly affect tourism and in particular airlines,
increasing destination vulnerability.
Figure 4.2.4: Fuel costs as part of worldwide operating cost
(Source: IATA, 2009)
Climate policy
Climate change has, since the publication of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s
4th Assessment Report (IPCC 2007), been high on the global political agenda. The most recent UN
Conference of Parties (COP) in Mexico in December 2010 agreed that increases in temperature should be
stabilised at a maximum of 2°C by 2100. Notably, the 39 member states of the Alliance of Small Island
43
Developing States have called in a recent Declaration to the United Nations for a new climate change
agreement that would ensure global warming to be kept at a maximum of 1.5°C (AOSIS, 2009).
So far, the European Union is the only region in the world with a legally binding target for emission
reductions, imposed on the largest polluters. While it is likely that the EU ETS will not seriously affect
aviation, the only tourism sub-sector to be directly integrated in the scheme by 2012 (e.g. Mayor and Tol
2009, see also Gössling et al. 2008), discussions are ongoing of how to control emissions from consumption
not covered by the EU ETS. This is likely to lead to the introduction of significant carbon taxes in the EU in
the near future (Euractiv, 2009). Moreover, the EU ETS will set a tighter cap on emissions year-on-year, and
in the medium-term future, i.e. around 2015-2025, it can be assumed that the consumption of energyintense products and services will become perceivably more expensive. There is also evidence of greater
consumer pressure to implement pro-climate policies. While climate policy is only emerging in other
regions, it can be assumed that in the next years, further legislation to reduce emissions will be introduced
– the new air passenger duty in the UK is a recent example, and has already been followed by Germany’s
departure tax (as of 01/01/2011).
As of 1 November 2010, the UK introduced a new air passenger duty (APD) for aviation, which replaced its
earlier, two-tiered ADP. The new ADP distinguishes four geographical bands, representing one-way
distances from London to the capital city of the destination country/territory, and based on two rates, one
for standard class of travel, and one for other classes of travel (Table 4.2.5).
Table 4.2.5: UK air passenger duty as of 1 November 2011
Band, and appropriate distance in
miles from
Band A (0-2000)
Band B (2001-4000)
Band C (4001-6000)
Band D (over 6000)
In the lowest class of travel
(reduced rate)
2009-10
2010-11
£11
£12
£45
£50
£55
£60
£75
£85
In other than the lowest class of
*
travel (standard rate)
2009-10
2010-11
£22
£90
£100
£110
£24
£120
£150
£170
(Source: HM Revenue & Customs, 2008)
Scientifically, there is general consensus that a ‘serious’ climate policy approach will be paramount in the
transformation of tourism towards becoming climatically sustainable, as significant technological
innovation and behavioural change will demand strong regulatory environments (e.g. Barr et al. 2010, Bows
et al. 2009, Hickman and Banister 2007; see also Giddens 2009). As outlined by Scott et al. (2010), “serious”
would include the endorsement of national and international mitigation policies by tourism stakeholders, a
global closed emission trading scheme for aviation and shipping, the introduction of significant and
constantly rising carbon taxes on fossil fuels, incentives for low-carbon technologies and transport
infrastructure, and, ultimately, the development of a vision for a fundamentally different global tourism
economy.
While this would demand a rather radical change from current business models in tourism, all of these
aspects of a low-carbon tourism system are principally embraced by business organisations. For instance,
the World Economic Forum (2009) suggests as mechanisms to achieve emission reductions i) a carbon tax
on non-renewable fuels, ii) economic incentives for low-carbon technologies, iii) a cap-and-trade system for
developing and developed countries, and iv) the further development of carbon trading markets.
Furthermore, evidence from countries seeking to implement low-carbon policies suggests that the tourism
businesses themselves also call for the implementation of legislation to curb emissions, a result of the wish
for “rules for all”, with in particular pro-climate oriented businesses demanding regulation and the
44
introduction of market-based instruments to reduce emissions (cf. Ernst & Young, 2010,
PricewaterhouseCoopers, 2010).
There is consequently growing consensus among business leaders and policy makers that emissions of
greenhouse gases represent a market failure. The absence of a price on pollution encourages pollution,
prevents innovation, and creates a market situation where there is little incentive to innovate (OECD
2010b). While governments have a wide range of environmental policy tools at their disposal to address
this problem, including regulatory instruments, market-based instruments, agreements, subsidies, or
information campaigns, the fairest and most efficient way of reducing emissions is increasingly seen in
higher fuel prices, i.e. the introduction of a tax on fuel or emissions (e.g. Sterner, 2007, Mayor and Tol,
2007, 2008, 2009, 2010a,b; see also OECD, 2009, 2010b; WEF, 2009; PricewaterhouseCoopers, 2010). As
outlined by OECD (2010b: 2):
Compared to other environmental instruments, such as regulations concerning emission
intensities or technology prescriptions, environmentally related taxation encourages both
the lowest cost abatement across polluters and provides incentives for abatement at each
unit of pollution. These taxes can also be a highly transparent policy approach, allowing
citizens to clearly see if individual sectors or pollution sources are being favoured over
others.
The overall conclusion is thus that emerging climate policy may become more felt that in the future, and
tourism stakeholders should seek to prepare for this.
Vulnerabilities
Generally, a destination could be understood as vulnerable when it is highly dependent on tourism, and
when its tourism system is energy intense with only a limited share of revenues staying in the national
economy. Figure 4.2.5 shows this for various islands, expressed as a climate policy risk assessment. In the
case of Bahamas, vulnerability is lower than in other countries, because the share of tourism in national
GDP is still comparably low, while the energy intensity of the island’s tourism system is also low.
Destination climate policy risk assessment: eco-efficiency and tourism revenues as share of GDP. Notes:
Lines represent the weighted average values for all 10 islands; H is either high (unfavourable) eco-efficiency
or high dependency on tourism, L is either low (favourable) eco-efficiency or low dependency on tourism,
eco-efficiency=local spending compared to total emissions, i.e. not considering air fares.
45
Figure 4.2.5: Vulnerability of selected islands, measured as eco-efficiency and revenue share
(Source: Gössling et al. 2008)
While global climate policy affecting in particular transports is currently only emerging, there are already a
number of publications seeking to analyse the consequences of climate policy for in particular tourismdependent islands. There is general consensus that current climate policy is not likely to affect mobility
because international aviation is exempted from value-added tax (VAT), a situation not likely to change in
the near future due to the existence of a large number of bilateral agreements. Furthermore, emission
trading as currently envisaged by the EU would, upon implementation in 2012, increase the cost of flying by
just about €3 per 1,000 passenger-kilometres (pkm) at permit prices of €25 per ton of CO2 (Scott et al.
2010). Similar findings are presented by Mayor and Tol (2010), who model that a price of €23/t CO2 per
permit will have a negligible effect on emissions developments. Other considerable increases in transport
costs due to taxation are not as currently apparent in any of the 45 countries studied by OECD & UNEP
(2011), though such taxes may be implemented in the future. The example of the UK has been outlined
above and Germany introduced a departure tax of €8, €25 and €45 for flights <2,000 km, 2,000-4,000 km
and >4,000 km as of 1 January 2011.
The implications of the EU-ETS for tourism in island states were modelled by Gössling et al. (2008). The
study examined the implications of the EU-ETS for European outbound travel costs and tourism demand for
ten tourism-dependent less developed island states with diverse geographic and tourism market
characteristics. It confirmed that the EU-ETS would only marginally affect demand to these countries, i.e.
causing a slight delay in growth in arrival numbers from Europe through to 2020, when growth in arrivals
would be 0.2% to 5.8% lower than in the baseline scenario (Gössling et al. 2008).
As the Gössling et al. (2008) study only looked at climate policy, but omitted oil prices, Pentelow and Scott
(2010) modelled the consequences of a combination of climate policy and rising oil prices. A tourist arrivals
model was constructed to understand how North American and European tourist demand to the Caribbean
region would be affected. A sensitivity analysis that included 18 scenarios with different combinations of
three GHG mitigation policy scenarios for aviation (represented by varied carbon prices), two oil price
projections, and three price elasticity estimates was conducted to examine the impact on air travel arrivals
from eight outbound market nations to the Caribbean region. Pentelow and Scott (2010) concluded that a
combination of low carbon price and low oil price would have very little impact on arrivals growth to the
46
Caribbean region through to 2020, with arrivals 1.28% to 1.84% lower than in the BAU scenario (the range
attributed to the price elasticities chosen). The impact of a high carbon price and high oil price scenario was
more substantive, with arrivals 2.97% to 4.29% lower than the 2020 BAU scenario depending on the price
elasticity value used. The study concluded:
It is important to emphasize that the number of arrivals to the region would still be
projected to grow from between 19.7 million to 19.9 million in 2010 to a range of 30.1
million to 31.0 million in 2020 (Pentelow and Scott 2010).
A detailed case study of Jamaica further revealed the different sensitivity of market segments (package
vacations) to climate policy and oil price related rises in air travel costs (Pentelow and Scott 2010; see also
Schiff and Becker 2010 for a New Zealand study of price elasticities). Pentelow and Scott (2010) concluded
that further research is required to understand the implications of oil price volatility and climate policy for
tourist mobility, tour operator routing and the longer- term risks to tourism development in the Caribbean.
Overall, current frameworks to mitigate GHG emissions from aviation do not seem to represent a
substantial threat to tourism development (Mayor and Tol 2007, Gössling et al. 2008, Rothengatter 2009),
but new regulatory regimes and market-based instruments to reduce emissions in line with global policy
objectives would cause changes in the global tourism system that could affect in particular SIDS. To
anticipate these changes and to prepare the vulnerable tourism economies in the Caribbean to these
changes should thus be a key management goal for tourism stakeholders.
Climate change impacts on energy generation, distribution and infrastructure
A report on the potential impacts of climate change on the energy sector published by the U.S. Department
of Energy distinguishes between direct impacts: which affect energy resource availability, fuel and power
production, transmission and distribution processes; and indirect impacts which are brought on by other
sectors through forward or reverse linkages with the energy sector, and may include competition for
shared resources, trends in demand and supply and pricing. These impacts are not only limited to
traditional (fossil fuel) based energy systems, but renewable systems as well. While direct impacts are more
visible, the costs of indirect impacts can be difficult to quantify and often exceed those of direct impacts,
given the inter-relationships between energy and other sectors (U.S. Department of Energy/National
Energy Technology Laboratory, 2007). Similarly, Contreras-Lisperguer and de Cuba (2008) have outlined a
number of potential impacts of climate change on both traditional and renewable energy systems, with
varying consequences for energy production and transmission efficiency, energy prices and trends in
demand and consumption.
The Bahamas depends almost entirely on fossil fuels for energy production, with the aim of reducing this
dependence by including various renewable energy technologies in the future. Potential physical climate
change impacts specific to traditional energy production systems as well as the renewable technologies
being considered by the Government of the Commonwealth of The Bahamas are outlined below. Since The
Bahamas is at the stage of planning for and implementing renewable energy systems, special consideration
should be given to the physical impacts that can affect these systems in the planning process.
An increase in the intensity (and possibly frequency) of severe low pressure systems, such as hurricanes,
has the potential to affect both traditional and renewable energy production and distribution
infrastructure, including generating plants, transmission lines, and pipelines. Most, if not all of the energybased infrastructure in The Bahamas is therefore vulnerable to impacts from tropical storms and hurricanes
during any given year. Some of the more vulnerable components of the energy system include transmission
lines, poles and other relatively light, above ground infrastructure, which can suffer significant damage
from high winds. In the aftermath of extreme weather, the process of restoring transmission and proper
47
operation of generating facilities depends on road access and the amount of supplies available to replace
infrastructure components that have been damaged or destroyed (see Section 4.7.2). The vulnerability of
the energy sector to extreme weather events therefore has even greater implications for increasing the
recovery period and extending the loss of productivity in all other sectors within the country following an
event (U.S. Department of Energy/National Energy Technology Laboratory, 2007; IPCC, 2007b; ContrerasLisperguer & de Cuba, 2008; NEPC, 2008).
Model projections for The Bahamas suggest an increase in mean annual temperatures, as well as the
number of ‘hot’ days and nights to as much as 99% of the days per year by 2080, and a decrease in the
number of ‘cold’ nights (See Climate Modelling Section). National energy demand and consumption for
heating and cooling purposes may increase in response to extremes in diurnal temperatures. Higher
temperatures have also been shown to reduce the efficiency of energy generation at thermal power plants,
which are used in The Bahamas to supply electricity throughout the islands. The climate modelling
projections also indicate decreases in mean annual rainfall for The Bahamas, (although these predictions
are more uncertain than temperature changes) which may affect water availability for non-contact cooling
of power generators (Contreras-Lisperguer & de Cuba, 2008), (see Section 4.1).
Alternative energy sources, while they are environmentally more sustainable, also face challenges from
temperature and precipitation variability. With regard to wind energy, wind is generated by temperature
gradients which result from differential heating of the earth’s surface. Based on this relationship, changes
in spatial temperature gradients caused by land use change, reductions in solar incidence and changes in
atmospheric circulation can be argued to result in wind pattern shifts and therefore wind energy potential.
Similarly, changes in solar radiation incidence and increases in temperature can impact the effectiveness of
electrical generation by photovoltaic cells and solar thermal energy collection. The projected increase in the
number of sunshine hours for The Bahamas over the next few decades increases the viability of using
photovoltaic technology – even if only on the basis of increasing incidence of sunshine (IPCC, 2007b;
Contreras-Lisperguer & de Cuba, 2008)
Climate change, ocean-based impacts on the energy system include storm surge events and SLR. These
processes are a threat primarily to infrastructure located within the coastal zone, and within the impact
range of these events. Impact scenarios for The Bahamas are site-specific but include localised erosion,
flooding, inundation and salt water intrusion of groundwater resources caused by storms and SLR. These
impacts would be of great concern, given the low lying nature of the archipelago. Power generating
stations and other major infrastructure located on the coastline are therefore highly vulnerable to damage
from flooding and inundation resulting from SLR and storm induced surges. At least half of the existing
power plant infrastructure in The Bahamas is vulnerable to SLR-induced impacts in the event of a 2m SLR
scenario (Simpson et al., 2010). Ocean thermal energy is another renewable energy source being
considered by The Bahamas, which makes use of the vertical temperature gradient to drive energy
production. Alterations to the thermal structure of the water column from climate change has the potential
to improve the viability of this technology through increased sea surface temperatures, and should be
considered during planning.
The likelihood of climate change impacting on energy systems will vary. However, an assessment of the
vulnerability of Bahamian systems should be prioritised, especially in the case of renewable energy sources
which depend on climate and priority coastal infrastructure such as power plants. Robust evaluation
methods, which include climate change prediction models, need to be researched, tailored and utilised in
the decision-making process for establishing and developing renewable systems, and in the management of
existing traditional energy systems to ensure long-term viability.
48
4.3.
Agriculture and Food Security
4.3.1. Background
Climate change related impacts on agriculture have, in recent times, been the focus of discussion and
research on an international level. It is anticipated that climatic change will diminish agricultural potentials
in some regions thereby affecting the global food system. The IAASTD Global Report (International
Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology for Development, 2009) stresses the need
to adopt a more practical approach to agricultural research that requires participation from farmers who
hold the traditional knowledge in food production.
This research examines the relationship between agriculture and tourism within the framework of climate
change, and seeks to develop adaptation options to support national food security based on experience
and knowledge gained from local small-scale farmers and agricultural technicians. The study is exploratory
in nature and the findings will be assimilated to develop national and regional projects that promote
climate conscious farms and sustainable food production in the Caribbean.
4.3.2. The importance of agriculture to national development
In 2010, The Bahamas Ministry of Agriculture and Marine Resources, with the assistance of the Food and
Agricultural Organization (FAO), conducted a rapid assessment of agriculture which examined all major subsectors of agriculture including ornamental, vegetable, livestock and food processing. The resulting report
(FAO, 2010) indicates that although the Bahamian economy is heavily dependent on the tourism and
financial services sectors, its natural resource base is dominated by large tracts of lands suited to
agriculture and a rich marine resource. Agriculture’s contribution to GDP has been minimal over the past
decade. Together with the fisheries sector, they account for approximately 5% of both GDP and
employment. FAO’s assessment is that proper utilisation of the land and marine resources is a logical
approach for The Bahamas to reduce its reliance on a narrow sectoral base and promote the diversification
of its economy.
The Right Honorable Hubert A. Ingraham, Prime Minister and Minister of Finance of The Bahamas, supports
the view that agriculture is critical to national development. In his January 2011 remarks to The Bahamas
Business Outlook meeting, the Prime Minister acknowledged that in order for the economy to achieve
higher levels of growth, there must be some diversification by way of increased involvement in
manufacturing and agriculture.
4.3.3. An analysis of the agricultural sector in The Bahamas
The Bahamas depends almost entirely on imports to feed Bahamians and tourists. A release from The
Bahamas Information Services Department (BIS, 2011b) indicates that almost US $500 million annually are
spent every year to import food from other countries into The Bahamas. The FAO (2010) report also
records that the food import bill in 2007 was over $400 million; the trend shows an annual increase from
$262M in 1999.
The Inter-American Institute for Cooperation of Agriculture (IICA, 2010) through its Bahamas office affirms
that for the purpose of agricultural production, almost all of the major cultivation takes place on the Family
Islands. The major food producing Family Islands with fertile land and adequate fresh water supply are
49
Andros, Abaco and Grand Bahama. Other Family Islands such as Eleuthera, Long Island, Cat Island and an
additional four islands - Acklins, Mayaguana, Inagua and San Salvador are smaller contributors to the
sector. The major producer of greenhouse tomatoes, peppers, cucumbers and lettuce as well as initiating
tissue culture propagation operates on New Providence.
An FAO (2010) examination of the performance of the agricultural and fisheries sector over the four year
period 2005 to 2008 shows a constant decline in output for the major sub sectors of fisheries and crops,
while the other sub sectors of poultry, red meats and ornamentals indicates a slight upward trend. The
value of output of crops declined to US $41.7 million in 2008, down from US $46.2 million in 2005. A review
of exports of selected agricultural commodities indicates a decline in value of US $5 million between 2003
and 2007. The table below indicates that the major portion of the sector’s domestic export is marine
products. However, The Bahamas also exports grapefruits, aragonite, rum, and crude salt.
Table 4.3.1: Imports by Commodity Group 1999 and 2003 ‐ 2007 (B $'000)
Period
Catfish
Fish and
Other
Crustaceans
Fruits and
Vegetables
Aragonite
Rum
Crude
Salt
Chemicals
Others
Total
1999
71,586
3,677
10,273
389
30,957
13,579
11,219
50,664
194,160
2003
106,381
1,773
2,000
478
22,024
13,636
49
111,582
264,115
2004
86,107
1,285
1,369
80
31,344
12,457
0
107,585
240,227
2005
74,498
3,531
926
52
16,843
14,805
0
160,19
270,849
2006
89,906
4,242
1,233
38,115
9,393
12,044
15,019
172,759
343,551
2007
81,371
1,865
1,198
35,577
20,282
6,600
84,562
147,289
379,090
(Adapted from FAO Report on Rapid Assessment of the Agriculture Sector in The Bahamas, 2010)
A study commissioned by The Bahamas Agricultural Producers Association (BAPA, 2010) examined the 30
most important crops to the country and concluded that if The Bahamas were to grow all 30 of these
crops, the country stands to earn as much as B $31.5 – B $31.9 million dollars per annum. Another B $12.7
– B $14.5 million dollars can potentially be realised from their value-added products totalling B $43.86 – B
$46.43 million dollars possible injection into the Bahamian economy. This earning can have a strong
positive impact on the food import bill and foreign exchange reserves.
Following the BAPA (2010) report, of the 30 crops identified, onion, the number one ranked crop, saw the
value of imports increase over half a million dollars from 2006 (B $2,303,714) to 2007 (B $2,852,197). Irish
potatoes, the number two ranked crop, has a potential to earn B $3.4 million dollars annually as a fresh
product and up to B $7.0 million dollars as a frozen or prepared product, making it the crop with the
greatest potential, over ten million dollars per annum. In 2007, The Bahamas imported almost B $4.0
million dollars worth of Lettuce, the third most sought after product: iceberg, romaine and head. Tomato,
which ranked fourth, decreased in import levels between 2006 and 2007 by B $598,774 or 20.2% because
of increased local greenhouse production. The next table shows import values of other selected fresh crops
which have been identified as potential million dollar industries.
50
Table 4.3.2: Value of Imports of Selected Crops
Crop
Carrot
Sweet Pepper
Lemon
Orange
Plantain
Grapefruit
Lime (Persian & Key)
Watermelon
Corn
Banana
Cantaloupe
Broccoli
Import Value 2006
Import Value 2007
$1,044,106
$1,211,915
$ 1,664,900
$1,574,848
$1,051,441
$859,532
$4,969,256
$5,545,036
$1,834,556
$1,785,831
$1,075,225
$1,048,720
$2,090,936
$2,459,110
$1,109,835
$485,943
$1,651,794
$1,885,379
$2,439,283
$2,50,408
$1,043,949
$1,145,558
$1,048,853
$1,189,438
(Source: BAPA, 2010)
Bahamas’ food import bill poses a serious threat to agricultural development and food security. The
Ministry of Agriculture, Department of Marine Resources Report (MAMR, 2010) confirms that the future of
food security in The Bahamas is in severe jeopardy. According to their statistics, if trade ties were ever
severed, food already imported would only allow The Bahamas to feed itself for six weeks. Recognising
the extensive import food bill and the shortages experienced after extreme weather events or global crises,
The Bahamas has embarked on a mission to grow as much of its food as possible. The Department of
Agriculture has undertaken several programmes with the objectives of increasing production, introducing
new technology and fostering linkages with the community.
4.3.4. Women and youth in Bahamian agriculture
The Department of Statistics of The Bahamas 2009 labour force data shows that only 3% of all working
Bahamians are employed in the agriculture sector. Furthermore of the 4,530 person working in agriculture,
only 415 (9%) are women. Statistics for youth employed in agriculture are not available. However, The IICA
Bahamas office has taken the lead in engaging the youth of the nation to play an active role in the
agricultural economy. IICA Bahamas launched a summer student internship program during the month of in
the summer of 2007. The program is designed to expose the candidates to all options available for career
planning and advancement, using existing successful agricultural models in The Bahamas. The 2010
program was implemented in conjunction with The Bahamas Cooperative League Limited which sponsors a
scholarship to College of The Bahamas for Agriculture.
The FO sponsored Garden-based Learning Project is another initiative that commenced in 2008 which aims
to increase youth participation in agriculture. Through The Ministry of Education, the Garden-based
Learning Project was integrated into the primary school with a view to improving food security and
nutrition. The project is currently being implemented in grades four and five of nine pilot schools.
4.3.5. Climate change related issues and agricultural vulnerability in Bahamas
General Circulation Model (GCM) projections from a 15-model ensemble indicate that The Bahamas can be
expected to warm by 0.8 to 1.9˚C by the 2050s and 1.0-3.2˚C by the 2080s, relative to the 1970-1999 mean.
. Models also predict that there will be more heavy rainfall as well as increased droughts. Many of the
short-term crops (corn, pigeon peas, sweet potatoes and vegetables) are seasonal and any significant shifts
51
in climatic conditions, such as increased temperatures, more frequent or more intense droughts, and any
changes in mean rainfall, adversely affect production and food supply.
Additionally, since The Bahamas is located in the hurricane belt, Bahamian farmers are vulnerable to their
devastating effects. Research commissioned by The Bahamas Environment Science and Technology
Commission (BEST, 2005) shows that in 1992 Hurricane Andrew caused severe salt intrusion on one of the
major farming areas. More recently, heavy rains following Hurricane Lili in 1996 led to flooding of land with
consequent leaching of fertiliser and delay in replanting. Hurricanes Floyd and Michelle in 1999 and 2001
respectively also resulted in heavy losses in the agricultural sector. Tropical storm and hurricane damage is
high in all sub-sectors: crops, livestock and fisheries as illustrated in Figure 4.3.1.
The Bahamas Ministry of Agriculture and Marine Resources reports that in October 2007 heavy rainfall and
flooding associated with Tropical Storm Noel affected 781 farmers on Long Island, Cat Island, Eleuthera and
Exuma. The exceptionally high rainfall over Andros also resulted in 70% of vegetable seedbeds destroyed
on that island. In this regard, fertilisers valued at B $87,520.00 were distributed among affected farmers in
the months following the storm. Livestock losses were heaviest in Long Island and Cat Island, primarily due
to drowning.
Stutley (2009), FAO specialist for risk
management, explains that the Northern
Islands face a much higher frequency of
tropical storm and hurricane strikes than
Southern Islands. Major hurricane losses
are experienced by the agricultural sector
every 3 to 5 years. Hurricane Floyd in 1999
caused severe damage to agriculture
across 11 Islands of The Bahamas with crop
damage totalling B $27 million, including
100% losses in bananas and major losses in
citrus. The livestock sub-sector sustained B
$3.8 million in losses that year and
fisheries B $10 million in boats, fishing
gear,
lobster
pots
and
lobster
condominiums.
Figure 4.3.1: Bahamas estimated value of Hurricane damage to
crops, livestock and fisheries
(Source: MAMR)
The findings from The Bahamas Crop
Insurance Demand Assessment Study (Stutley, 2009) indicate that 75% of the farmers surveyed (crop &
livestock producers) identified windstorm damage as their key risk exposure while 20% identified drought
as the main peril. Main causes for animal mortality include flooding or storm surge associated with the
storm or hurricanes leading to drowning of the animals and poultry or collapse of buildings housing the
livestock due to wind, flood or tidal surge which crush the animals to death.
4.3.6. Vulnerability enhancing factors: agriculture, land use and soil degradation
in Bahamas
According to the 1994 Agricultural Census, the area of agricultural land was 50,250 ac. (20,344 ha) or 78.5
mi2 (203.4 km2). This represents only about 1.5% of the total land area of The Bahamas. For land based
agriculture, The Bahamas can be divided into three distinct geographic regions. The northern islands
52
comprise New Providence, Grand Bahama, Abaco and North Andros. The central portion includes
Eleuthera, Long Island, Cat Island and Exuma and the south-eastern region includes Acklins, Crooked Island,
San Salvador, Mayaguana and Inagua.
The Bahamas 1st National Communication on Climate Change (2001) explains that historically large
expanses of land on all of the major inhabited islands were used for subsistence farming. The soils of The
Bahamas are very thin, chalky, fragile, inherently of low fertility and prone to drought. Once land had been
farmed for a few years it became exhausted, and farmers cleared new acreage for planting using the
traditional slash and burn method. Commercial agriculture ventures over the years included the
establishment of cotton plantations in the late 1700s, pineapple production in the late 1800s, tomatoes
from the 1940s to the early 1980s, sugar cane in the 1950s, and citrus in the 1980s and 1990s. Eventually
these agricultural projects succumbed because of soil depletion. The citrus groves of Abaco are rated as the
largest successful ongoing agricultural project in The Bahamas.
Land use has changed on New Providence, Grand Bahama and Paradise Island over the past three decades
with the building of hotels. Significant portions of land have been cleared for housing, business complexes,
roads, large scale resorts and golf courses. The Bahamas Environment Science and Technology Commission
Report (2005) contends that the competing demands for the limited land resources including urban use,
forestry, tourism and conservation affect agricultural productivity in The Bahamas.
The vulnerability enhancing factors related to agriculture, land use and soil degradation in The Bahamas
are:




inadequate agricultural practices such as slash-and-burn, production methods, crop rotation
methods and intensive tillage of the soil
inadequate land-use planning e.g. the use of arable land for infrastructure development
indiscriminate dumping of solid wastes on undeveloped lands (BEST, 2001)
lack of regulation governing the management and storage of pesticides and fertilisers, and other
hazardous chemicals that can contaminate soil and groundwater if they are spilled (BEST, 2005).
4.3.7. Social vulnerability of agricultural communities in The Bahamas
The IICA Bahamas (2005) report indicates that the islands of the northern Bahamas where land and sea
transportation links are reasonably developed engage in large scale commercial and export agriculture. The
main urban centres are located on the islands of New Providence and, to a lesser extent, Grand Bahama.
There are generally fewer farmers on these islands compared to the central Bahamas and the average size
of the farm tends to be larger.
Most of the farmers in the country are concentrated in the islands of the central Bahamas where they tend
to have smaller farms and more diversified agricultural production systems that range from mixed farms to
monocultures. Agricultural production is possible on most of the islands. However, low populations,
limited infrastructure and poor inter-island transportation have limited agricultural and rural development
in the rural communities on the other populated islands, known as the Family Islands. On these islands,
agriculture is a stabilising social factor that supports the rural communities. The IICA (2005) report points to
one critical social vulnerability factor for agriculture in The Bahamas as that of an aging farming population
because hardly any youth are showing interest in pursuing farming as a career.
At the FAO World Food Summit (2002) the incumbent Minister of Agriculture expressed that migration
from the southeastern islands, particularly by the young people to the urban centres of Nassau on the
53
island of New Providence and Freeport on the island of Grand Bahama, stretches the resources in the
capital and leaves the rural communities devoid of the people energy needed for development. According
to The Bahamas Census of Population 2000, the population density on New Providence was 2,655.4
persons per square mile. This compares with 31.9 for Exuma and 2.2 for Acklins. According to 2002
statistical data, 96% of the total population is found in the Northwest Bahamas. The skewed nature of the
population, due in part to rural-urban migration, is another social vulnerability factor for agriculture
because the outer islands lack the critical mass necessary for sustainable agricultural development.
However, the IICA Annual Report (2010) states that government incentives and efforts to revitalise the
sector have resulted in increasing interest among new farmers. Land allocation to interested individuals in
Andros and Abaco increased in 2009 and formation of farmers associations on the different Family Islands
also increased.
4.3.8. Economic vulnerability: climate change & agricultural outputs in Bahamas
Agriculture and food security in The Bahamas are economically vulnerable to the effects of climate change
on two accounts:
1. The propensity to import about ninety percent of all food consumed;
2. direct damage to crops, livestock and related infrastructure; and
3. Limited market access to the Family Islands.
The extremely high level of food imports makes the average Bahamian consumer susceptible to food
shortages and price hikes that are inspired by climate change impacts which occur in the Unites States,
their main supplier of food provisions. Locally produced fresh foods such as avocadoes, tomatoes and
cabbages have a decidedly short shelf life. There is a wholesale Produce Exchange in Freeport, Grand
Bahama Island which serves as the primary outlet through which Family Island farmers get their products
sold in the capital city, Nassau, New Providence.
However, The Bahamas Agricultural Producers Association (2010) report reveals that over the past five
years, the Produce Exchange has played a marginal role in marketing agricultural produce due to decreased
budgetary allocations. Additionally, the physical structure of the packing house is in an advanced state of
dilapidation which seriously compromises the quality of the fruits and vegetables and defies basic principles
of agricultural health and food safety.
Decreased market access from the outer islands to the main port inhibits the Family Islands farmers’
capacity to earn a steady income. This situation is exacerbated by climatic conditions such as excessive
heat which increases spoilage or storm and hurricane events which make it impossible to transport produce
from the outer islands to the main port in Nassau and make timely deliveries. The FAO Rapid Assessment
(2010) revealed that most of the post‐harvest losses of crops occur during transportation to New
Providence. The result is that farmers obtain lower prices for their produce which fail to meet grading
standards. Moreover, the transportation costs, weak infrastructure in some areas and high costs of
production limit the farmers’ earning potential.
According to The Bahamas Agricultural Producers Association (2010) report, more than thirty of the most
frequently imported crops and vegetables can be successfully grown under existing climatic conditions.
Conversely, the FAO Rapid Assessment (2010) indicates that production levels of domestic crops can be
significantly higher if pests and diseases are controlled prior to harvest. These pests and diseases are
directly influenced by the high temperatures and changes in humidity during periods of heavy rainfall.
54
The profile for key crops that pertain to climate change and agricultural growth in The Bahamas are
presented in the following diagram.
Based on the results of the FAO Rapid Assessment (2010), the key to decreasing economic vulnerability in
The Bahamas lies in improving crop management systems, practicing proper record keeping, investing in
new equipment, technology, and infrastructure.
55
4.4.
Human health
4.4.1. Background
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) defines health as
including ‘physical, social and psychological wellbeing’ (Confalonieri et al., 2007). With this broad definition
of health, climate change is likely to impact health in many ways including its effects on livelihoods at a
local scale and to the economy at a national level. Where disease epidemics already have been known to
occur or environmental and social conditions which make particular populations vulnerable, climate change
has the potential to impact the quality of the environment and the resilience of the ecosystems of which
they are made up, thereby intensifying disease incidences in a given population.
Health is an important issue in the tourism industry because tourists are susceptible to acquiring diseases
transmitted by insect vectors. In addition, air travel is responsible for a large number of diseases which are
carried from tropical tourist destinations to Europe (Gössling, 2005)and elsewhere in the world. This is
highly relevant when one considers that of travellers who become ill abroad, approximately 75% contract
infectious diseases; morbidity is most often due to diarrhoea or respiratory infections (Sanford, 2004).
Health is also important because it can have consequences for tourism destination demand which is a
significant contributor to the economies of Small Island Developing States (SIDS).
The potential effects of climate change on public health can be direct or indirect (Confalonieri et al., 2007;
Ebi et al., 2006; Patz et al., 2000). Direct effects include those associated with extreme weather events such
as thermal stress, changes in precipitation, sea-level rise and natural disasters or more frequent extreme
weather events. Both direct and indirect effects include the impact of climate change on the natural
environment which can affect food security and the agriculture sector and increase the susceptibility of
populations to respiratory diseases and food- and water-borne related diseases (Patz et al., 2000)
A significant number of diseases have been linked with climate change on a global scale, with varying levels
of confidence (Confalonieri et al., 2007). An overview of a subsector of those important in the Health Sector
of The Bahamas is presented here. In The Bahamas Initial National Communication to the UNFCCC, the
vulnerability of the the health sector to climate change could not be quantified, however it was noted that
changes in the incidence of malaria, dengue and other tropical diseases were expected to occur (BEST,
2001). It also stated that “the migration of people to and through The Bahamas has the potential for
introducing diseases”. Table 4.4.1 shows some relevant statistics in the Health Sector of The Bahamas
which are important indicators of the country’s resilience in the health sector.
Table 4.4.1: Selected statistics relevant to the Health Sector of The Bahamas
Population
303 611 (2000)
1
2
Human Development Index (HDI)
43 (2010)
ranking
3
Unemployment rate
14.1% (2010)
2
Expenditure on Public Health (% of
3.7 (2010)
GDP)
4
Life Expectancy at Birth (years m/f)
72/78years (2008)
5
Crude Birth Rate
16 per 1000 (2003)
5
Crude Death Rate
5.2 per 1000 (2003)
5
Hospital bed occupancy rate
34 per 10, 000 persons (2003)
1
2
3
4
5
(Sources: Cox et al., 2005; UNDP, 2010; Spencer et al., 2010; WHO, 2008; PAHO, 2007)
56
4.4.2. Direct impacts
Weather related mortality and morbidity
Mortality and morbidity rates due to injuries sustained during natural disasters are important direct
impacts to consider when assessing the vulnerability of a country to climate change. From observed data
North Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms appear to have increased in intensity during the last 30 years
and modelling projections indicate that the trend is expected to continue in the future, specifically due to
intensification of weather phenomenon rather than increases in frequencies (see section 3 Climate
Modelling).
It has been assessed that at least 3 hurricanes pass within 100 miles of The Bahamas annually (BEST, 2001).
BEST (2006) summarised that between 2000 and 2006, six named hurricanes hit The Bahamas, with varying
impacts on the islands. This combined with the fact that more than 80% of the land area of The Bahamas is
1.5 m or less above mean sea level makes the country vulnerable to storm surges, very high wind forces or
persistent high levels of rainfall and the resultant flooding (BEST, 2001; ECLAC, 2004) which can threaten
the safety and health of the Bahamian population. The island experiences tropical storms and hurricanes
with great frequency during the months of September, October, August and November (BEST, 2001) and
the hurricane season occurs from June to November every year (Cox et al., 2005) which is a significant
exposure period not just to The Bahamas but the entire region. As described in The Bahamas Initial
National Communication to the UNFCCC “More frequent disruptions and damage to infrastructure and
human settlements from hurricanes and storm surges will occur, and this will be reflected in increased
insurance and rebuilding costs” (BEST, 2001).
One of the worse hurricane seasons in the last decade occurred in 2004 when Hurricanes Frances and
Jeanne hit The Bahamas within a month of each other. Hurricane Frances was the first hurricane to impact
all of The Bahamian archipelago since 1886 (ECLAC, 2004) and it was estimated that approximately 4% of
GDP was affected via “direct damages, including 1.3% of GDP in damages to the mostly uninsured public
infrastructure in the transportation, education, and health sectors” (Lewis et al., 2005).Jones(2005)
estimated that around 24.7% (83,000 people) of the population were directly affected and in some way
subject to health risks. Additionally there were two reported deaths, a number of injured persons, and at
least 2000 homeless persons. Table 4.4.2 attempts to quantify the affected populations in The Bahamas
after Hurricanes Frances and Jeanne in 2004.
st
th
Table 4.4.2: Primarily affected population in The Bahamas after Hurricane Frances (Aug 31 – 5 Sept) and
th
Hurricane Jeanne (Sept 25 )
Affected Popullation
Deaths*
2
People in shelters
2,400
Secondarily affected population (in all regions)
13,500
Affected immigrant population in settlements (Abaco)
15,500
Percentage of total population
9%
Tertiary affected population (as a percentage of total population)
58%
*Three additional injuries were reported by the Ministry of Health
(Source: IDB, 2004; Original source ECLAC)
Aside from injuries and deaths, post-traumatic stress and other mental disorders (Confalonieri et al., 2007)
is also important to consider due to extreme events and the loss of property and damage to infrastructure
that occurs on a national scale. For example, there were reports of cases of post-traumatic stress and other
psychological effect after Hurricane Michelle in 2001 (PAHO, 2007) and after Hurricanes Frances and
Jeanne in 2004 (ECLAC, 2004).
57
Increased temperature and the effect of heat
In The Bahamas Initial National Communication to the UNFCCC, heat stress was identified as an important
factor that may arise due to increased temperatures caused by climate change (BEST, 2001). According to
projections temperatures are expected to increase in The Bahamas (See Section 3 Climate Modelling)
although this change may vary in different island regions of The Bahamas. Increased temperatures have
implications for persons prone to, or suffering from, cardiovascular diseases (Cheng and Su, 2010;
Confalonieri et al., 2007; Worfolk, 2000) which could be exacerbated by prolonged exposure.
In general, increased temperature may result in an increase in morbidity and mortality (Hajat, O'Connor, &
Kosatsky, 2010) related to heat exhaustion and dehydration (Sanford, 2004). The elderly and young are
more susceptible than other groups as well as persons chronically sick and those socially isolated. In The
Bahamas, 5.3% of the population is over 65 years and 28.4% under 15 years according to the 2000 census
(PAHO, 2007). This represents a substantial portion of the country’s total population that is vulnerable to
higher than normal heat conditions. Persons who work outdoors for long periods of time (e.g. construction
workers) are also at greater risk to these conditions. In terms of tourism this will be an important
consideration for elderly travel enthusiasts when choosing destinations.
In the context of tourism, while temperature may be considered a positive determinant of visitor demands
it should be noted that cooler temperate destinations may become more attractive as temperature
increases, and warm tropical destinations may become less attractive (Hamilton and Tol, 2004). However,
the reverse may be also true depending on the destination. It is uncertain at what temperature threshold
such hypotheses will affect Caribbean destinations such as The Bahamas.
4.4.3. Indirect impacts
Increase in vector borne diseases
In The Bahamas, higher incidence of tropical diseases may arise due to changes in temperature (BEST,
2001; NCCC-BEST, 2005). The Bahamas experiences moderate rainfall; projections indicate that
precipitation is likely to both increase and decrease as a result of climate change. If intense rainfall events
increase, this may increase the rate at which mosquitoes proliferate by providing numerous breeding sites.
The northern islands are rainier (Cox et al., 2005) and therefore more favourable to mosquito breeding.
Hales et al. (2002) describe, “mosquitoes require standing water to breed, and a warm ambient
temperature is critical to adult feeding behaviour and mortality, the rate of larval development, and speed
of virus replication”. Of course climate is not the only important factor in the successful transmission of
disease, other factors include the disease source, the vector and a human population (Hales et al., 2002).
Included in the human population, should be the visiting susceptible population resulting from the tourism
industry. In recent years the visitor arrivals to The Bahamas were between 3 and 5 million annually
between 1990 and 2009 which represents a significant number of persons potentially at risk of contracting
tropical diseases such as vector borne diseases.
Vector borne diseases are also a cause for concern during periods of intense rain such as during hurricanes,
subsequent flooding and associated collection of water due to high amounts of debris. For example, the
vulnerability of The Bahamas to this was anticipated after Hurricanes Frances and Jeanne struck and
therefore the Bahamas Department of Environmental Health launched a vector control initiative which
included larviciding for mosquitoes and spraying insecticides for flies (ECLAC, 2004).
Additionally, as sea level rises, wetland areas will increase (BEST, 2001) which will result in an increase in
suitable habitats for mosquitoes to breed. Mangroves have been cleared most notably in Nassau (New
58
Providence), Freeport (Grand Bahama), Marsh Harbour (Abaco) and George Town (Great Exuma) as a
means of controlling the mosquito breeding sites, however this has occurred at the expensive of the
environment (Buchan, 2000; Cox et al., 2005) and now increases the risk from storm surges and salt water
intrusion.
One final consideration is the transmission of vector borne diseases and communicable infectious diseases
in general, which can come from other countries. For instance, due to its proximity to Haiti, The Bahamas is
vulnerable to imported cases from the other islands of the Caribbean region. For example, Haitians are the
most common migrants (Cox et al., 2005) and the single largest group of immigrants, accounting for 33% of
all immigrants in The Bahamas according to the 2000 census (PAHO, 2007). Vector borne diseases relevant
to The Bahamas are dengue and malaria and will be described briefly here.
Dengue Fever - Dengue fever is caused by any of four serotypes of the virus of the genus Flavivirus and
family Flaviviridae (Gubler, 1998). As defined by Rigau-Pérez et al., (1998) dengue is ‘an acute mosquitotransmitted viral disease characterised by fever, headache, muscle and joint pains, rash, nausea, and
vomiting. Some infections result in dengue haemorrhagic fever, a syndrome that in its most severe form
can threaten the patient’s life, primarily through increased vascular permeability and shock.’ It is the most
important arboviral disease of humans, and exists in tropical and subtropical countries worldwide (Gubler,
2002; Martens et al., 1998; Rigau-Pérez et al., 1998). The arthropod vector for dengue is Aedes aegypti.
Population growth, urbanisation and modern transportation are believed to have contributed to its
resurgence in recent times (Gubler, 2002).
It has been shown that dengue fever transmission is altered by increases in temperature and rainfall (Hales
et al., 1996). In the Caribbean it has been observed that the disease is no longer confined to the rainy
season (CAREC, 2009). Both from modelled data and observations, it has also been found that changes in
climate determine the geographical boundaries of dengue fever (Epstein, 2001; Epstein et al., 1998; Hales
et al., 2002; Hsieh and Chen, 2009; Martens et al., 1997; Patz et al., 1998). This is in addition to other
economical, social and environmental factors that can affect the occurrence and transmission of the
disease (Hopp and Foley, 2001).
Dengue fever is a major public health problem in the Caribbean and can affect both locals and tourists
(Castle et al., 1999; Pinheiro and Corber, 1997; Wichmann et al., 2003; Chen et al., 2006). Allwinn et
al.(2008) have found that the risk to travellers has been underestimated. In fact it is the second most
reported disease of tourists returning from tropical destinations (Wilder-Smith and Schwartz, 2005) and air
travel has been linked with its spread (Jelinek, 2000). This vector borne disease has affected the region at
least as early as the 1800’s (Pinheiro and Corber, 1997).
In 2003 there were 180 reported cases of dengue fever (PAHO, 2007). In 2008 there was just one reported
case of dengue fever and no reported cases of dengue haemorrhagic fever. There were no reported cases
of either dengue fever or dengue haemorrhagic fever in 2007 (CAREC, 2009). Dengue cases in The Bahamas
are predominantly due to serotypes 2 and 3 (PAHO, 2007). It is important to note that infection of one
serotype does not offer immunity against another serotype. Therefore re-infection complicates the control
of the virus’ transmission (Gubler, 1998) and can lead to dengue haemorrhagic fever and dengue shock
syndrome (Levett, 2000). Dengue haemorrhagic fever is pre-dominantly an urban disease (Pinheiro and
Corber, 1997), therefore an island like New Providence with a population density of 1,018 persons per
km2and with 84% of its population living in urban areas (WHO, 2008) may be particularly vulnerable in the
future. Additionally, due to low-level of suspicion among physicians dengue fever is often under-reported
so the real threat that this disease poses to populations is currently under estimated (Jelinek, 2000).
59
In Jamaica, Chadee et al., (2009) found that large storage drums were the main breeding sites of the vector,
Aedes aegypti, accounting for a third of their breeding sites. Traditional targets of source reduction in
Jamaica, i.e. small miscellaneous containers, were found to contain negligible numbers of pupae. However,
if drought conditions become commonplace in the future due to climate change the use of water storage
devices especially in a water scarce country like The Bahamas may become more common and thus provide
suitable breeding sites for the vector Aedes aegypti.
Malaria – Malaria is not endemic in The Bahamas but the vector is Anopheles mosquito is present (PAHO,
2007). There were 10 cases of malaria between 2000 and 2003 (PAHO, 2007). In 2006 there were 48 cases
of imported malaria but no cases of local transmission (CAREC, 2008a). In 2007, there were 2 reported
cases of indigenous malaria (local transmission) and 1 reported case of imported malaria, this increased in
2008 to 8 cases of local transmission and 2 imported cases (CAREC, 2009). The infection has been mainly
associated with the district on the Islands of Exuma (IAMAT, 2011), which consists of approximately 360
islands or cays. There is always a risk of importing malaria cases due to the high number of visitors to the
Caribbean region and due to displaced people from Haiti. In addition, there is a possibility that the vector
populations are increasing due to anthropogenic factors as well as changing climate.
Malaria has been described as “intimately connected” with poverty because the mosquito vector breeds in
standing water pools that tend to form in the streets of informal development zones which lack proper
sanitation and waste removal (Gallup and Sachs, 2001).
The transmission of malaria as a result of tourism is not as great a concern as in other Caribbean islands
where the prevalence of the vector is higher, but caution is always advised. At least one study has found
that malaria is the most common cause of fever of tourists upon returning from travel in infected areas
(Wichmann et al., 2003). Additionally, it should be highlighted here that malaria is the most reported cause
of hospitalisations in tourists from malaria-prone destinations (Wilder-Smith and Schwartz, 2005).
During drought conditions, water storage increases thus providing more mosquito breeding sites. As has
been the case in the past, this it is expected to increase mosquito breeding and therefore the rate of
transmission of vector-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue (Pinheiro and Corber, 1997). As
mentioned above in the vector borne diseases subsection, the most significant breeding habitat for
mosquitoes in the dry season was found to be drums in a study of container productivity profiles (Chadee
et al., 2009).
Drought, air quality and respiratory illnesses
The quality of the air may be affected by expected drier spells due to climate change (Confalonieri et al.,
2007). If wind patterns change or wind speed increases the population of The Bahamas could become
exposed to increased amounts of particulate matter which could result in increased incidence of respiratory
illnesses. An increase in particulate matter can also arise due to increased episodes of bush fires; in the
case of The Bahamas spontaneous fires have been a problem in land fill and dumping sites and are among
the highest reported causes of fires in New Providence. Bush fires may also increase; these have been
reported in other islands of The Bahamas (Cox et al., 2005). The frequency of reports may increase if
conditions become drier due to changes in climate. The removal of vegetation can lead to soils which are
exposed and prone to erosion and wind damage.
Geochemical evidence has shown that, at least in part long-range transport of dust from Africa has
contributed to soil in The Bahamas (Muhs et al., 2007). Trade Winds bring dust from North Africa and the
Sahara to The Bahamas (Cox et al., 2005). It takes approximately one week for dust clouds to move this
distance and satellite images/surveillance traced these dust clouds moving to the Caribbean from the West
60
Coast of Africa (Prospero and Lamb, 2003; Trapp et al., 2010). However, dust or pollutants could be
entering The Bahamas from elsewhere as the observed differences in the composition of dust from day to
day or from year to year may represent different origins of particulate material (Trapp et al., 2010).
PAHO (2007) have found that “diseases of the respiratory system were among the leading causes of
mortality in children” in 1 – 4 year olds and that “the leading cause of inpatient morbidity during 2001–
2003 was acute respiratory infections”. Further in 2003, 388 females and 371 males reported cases of acute
respiratory infections in The Bahamas (PAHO, 2007). Additionally, Prospero et al., (2008) have described
asthma as being epidemic in the Caribbean region. Therefore the air quality can have implications for the
health and well-being of both the local and tourist populations to such an extent that it can easily trigger
respiratory distress (Sanford, 2004), particularly in those with existing respiratory diseases and those with
pulmonary and cardiac diseases. Further, these dynamics also occur against a background of normal and
expected urbanization that is occurring on a global scale and also affects Caribbean islands such as those in
The Bahamas.
Water supply, sanitation and associated diseases
Water supply disruptions combined with poor water quality can give rise to sanitation problems and create
environments and conditions suitable for disease transmission (Moreno, 2006). Domestic water supplies
are affected due to drought conditions. Any shortage of water or restriction on access to water can lead to
health problems. Therefore, emphasis on water and sanitation is critical to public health, which may
become even more important because of changes in climate and the associated vulnerabilities that will be
exacerbated.
Overall estimates between 2001 and 2005 indicated that 96.4% of the population had access to water via
household connections and other piped infrastructure while the remainder of the population relies on wells
or rainwater tanks (PAHO, 2007). However, PAHO (2007) have also stated that “in rural areas, despite the
availability of clean and safe water, there are unresolved provision difficulties due to operational, resource,
and technical constraints”. In addition to this natural disasters such as hurricanes can result in water supply
and health related concerns as supply maybe interrupted due to flooding and damage to infrastructure. For
instance, during Hurricanes Frances and Jeanne electricity and water supplies were severely affected for
several days (ECLAC, 2004).
In The Bahamas the majority of water is sourced from underground wells (See Section 4.1) and due to the
porous nature of the limestone substrate contamination can occur quite easily (Buchan, 2000). Among
other sources of contaminants is sewage, which can introduce microbial contaminants to freshwater thus
increasing the chances of deadly disease outbreaks (Buchan, 2000). In New Province roughly 20% of
households have sewage collection systems with the remainder utilising household tanks. Added to this,
“centralized sewerage systems in the Family Islands are mainly limited to some private developments and
resorts. The onus is on private developers to install centralized sewerage systems, depending on the size
and location of the development project” (Cox et al., 2005). Finally, it should be noted that “in less
developed areas shallow latrines may be used and in some cases direct discharge into the sea still occurs”
(Buchan, 2000).Such conditions combined with instances of flooding (See Water Sector Section) and an
overall unsanitary environment can lead to gastroenteritis and other food-borne diseases such as Cholera,
Camplylobacter (CAREC, 2009) as well as Cryptosporidiosis, Salmonellosis, Shigellosis, Listeriosis and E. coli.
Such diseases have been reported on cruiseships (Minooee and Rickman, 1999). In The Bahamas, underreporting of cases often occurs, especially in food-borne diseases (CAREC, 2008c). PAHO (2007) reported
that between 2001 and 2003, the number of food-borne illnesses was between 318.2 and 417.2 per
61
100,000 members of the population in The Bahamas. In contrast, there were between 2,521 to 4,904
reported cases of gastroenteritis between 2001 and 2004.
Cholera - Cholera is an example of a disease that proliferates in unsanitary conditions. The IPCC Fourth
Assessment Report has stated that climate change is an important factor in the spatial and temporal
distribution of Cholera (Confalonieri et al., 2007). Cholera is “an acute intestinal infection caused by the
bacterium Vibrio cholera and is spread by contaminated water and food” (CAREC, 2008b). The National
Climate Change Policy of The Bahamas has also identified cholera as a disease sensitive to climate change
due to higher temperatures, and greater humidity and rainfall (NCCC, 2005). Due to the outbreak in Haiti in
2010, The Bahamas was put on high alert due to its close proximity. Additionally Haitians are the single
largest group of immigrants, accounting for 33% of all immigrants in The Bahamas according to the 2000
census. They also represent 14% of those in the poorest quintile (PAHO, 2007). They tend to live in
“substandard housing in overcrowded marginal areas” (PAHO, 2007) which increases the potential for the
spread of highly communicable diseases like cholera.
Legionnaires disease - Another disease associated with water is Legionnaires disease and is linked to
climate change due to the greater incidence of the disease in hot humid rainy conditions (Fisman et al.,
2005). Legionnaires disease is essentially a severe form of pneumonia which arises when the hosts are
exposed to “aerosolised water containing the bacteria or aspirates water containing the bacteria” (Fields et
al, 2002). The gram negative bacteria Legionella is one of the main causative agents of Legionnaires disease
and is found in freshwater environments growing best at 32 - 45°C. As a result it thrives in stored hot water
environments such as in spas, hot tubs, humidifiers which form suitable reservoirs for harbouring the
bacteria. In addition it also thrives in natural waters, pipes, distribution systems, air conditioners, showers
and cooling towers (Fisman et al., 2005; Rose et al., 2001). It is therefore a disease of relevance in the
tourism industry, having been the cause of illness in a number of cruise ships (Fisman et al., 2005) and
tourist hotels in various parts of the world. However, in the Caribbean region, research on the prevalence
of the disease is limited to work by Hospedales et al., (1997) on hotel associated potable water in Antigua
and by Nagalingam et al. (2005) on hospitals in Trinidad and Tobago.
Food security and malnutrition
As previously discussed, changing weather patterns in SIDS such as The Bahamas can increase or decrease
precipitation levels which could in turn affect the agriculture sector. This can further impact food
availability during weather patterns (Confalonieri et al., 2007; Moreno, 2006) due to conditions of drought,
heat stress or floods. Negative health effects then follow, especially in poor and marginalised communities
which result in malnutrition. For example in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report reported under-nutrition,
protein energy malnutrition and or micronutrient deficiencies are major contributing factors to climate
change (Confalonieri et al., 2007). Therefore, as agricultural production is expected to be affected on a
global scale, this could result in greater foreign exchange expenditure to purchase foreign produced food
and food products.
During the period 1990 – 1992, 9% of Bahamians were defined as undernourished, this figure only
decreased by 1% during 2002 – 2004 (Trotman et al., 2009) which may not be an actual decrease due to
population growth. According to the Department of Statistics Bahamas Living Conditions Survey 2001, the
poverty rate is 1% lower in New Providence and Grand Bahama however 85% of the population reside in
these two islands (Bahamas Department of Statistics, 2004). This is important to the agricultural sector of
The Bahamas because although agriculture accounts for less than 2% of the country’s GDP (BEST, 2006c),
its importance in SIDS such as The Bahamas is proportionally far greater in terms of its social contribution
to society (ECLAC, 2004). The Bahamas has alkaline nutrient-poor soils which limits the extent of the
62
agricultural productivity of the country (Cox et al., 2005) as a result approximately 85-90% of the islands’
food is imported (BEST, 2001). Where food is grown, threats to food security also include saline
contamination of water sources required in irrigation of agricultural plots and salinisation of soils (BEST,
2001).
Food production and fisheries stock are considered an integral part of the Agricultural Sector.In the
Caribbean, reduction in fisheries stocks has also been linked with malnutrition due to a decrease in the
protein content in the diet (Burke and Maidens, 2010). Fisheries stocks have been described as
overexploited (Cox et al., 2005) although not to the extent of other Caribbean territories. However, storm
surges and hurricanes can batter and destroy coral reefs directly and impact on them through siltation and
increased pollutants from flood waters. The can also impact on fish stocks of The Bahamas. Another
ecological problem that affects food security in The Bahamas and is particularly important in the tourism
industry is Ciguatera.
Ciguatera fish poisoning - The Bahamas is also well known for the food poisoning illness called ciguatera
fish poisoning (CFP) and has the highest number of reported cases in the West Indies and the 4 th highest in
the Caribbean region (Tester et al., 2010). An increase in the incidence of ciguatera may arise as seas
become warmer due to climate change, triggering harmful algal blooms increase (HAB’s) which produce the
toxins that bio-accumulate in fish species (Confalonieri et al., 2007; Tester et al., 2010). Symptoms of CFP
include diarrhoea, vomiting, abdominal pain, muscular aches, nausea, reversal of temperature sensation,
anxiety, sweating, numbness and tingling of the mouth and feet and hands, altered sense of smell, irregular
heartbeat, lowering of blood pressure and paralysis (Friedman et al., 2008). In The Bahamas there is a high
consumption of and exposure to tropical fish species such as barracuda, which bio-accumulate algal toxins
(PAHO, 2007). The CFP rate in The Bahamas wss 5.8 persons per 10,000 between 1996 and 2006 (Tester et
al., 2010).
In 2008, of the 349 reported cases of ciguatera in the Caribbean, 50% were from The Bahamas. In 2007,
there were only 79 cases representing 44% of cases in the region (CAREC, 2009). Other reported years
indicate that “between 2002 and 2003, 564 cases of ciguatera poisoning were reported, and 214 occurred
in 2004” (PAHO, 2007). As the CAREC Annual Report 2007 states “the occurrence of even small numbers of
cases of ciguatera poisoning is of concern since it can result in severe illness, including neurological
symptoms, and can also be life threatening” (CAREC, 2008a).
Increased precipitation and associated diseases
Groundwater constitutes the main water source in The Bahamas. Contamination of groundwater resources
from sewerage is highly likely during flooding and is likely to be found mainly in low lying highly populated
islands due to increased or higher than normal precipitation. This can result in increased in water borne
disease transmission (BESTC, 2001). Climate change is expected to alter rainfall patterns across the region.
From observed data, precipitation has been shown to both increase and decrease, however, during natural
disasters such as hurricanes higher than average rainfall occurs. This may work favourably for diseases that
are spread by increased precipitation or are associated with extreme events such as flooding. For example
during Hurricane Frances in 2004, flood waters rose to nearly two meters (ECLAC, 2004). Two diseases that
have been associated with increased precipitation and flooding are hantavirus and leptospirosis.
Leptospirosis –Leptospirosis is an example of a disease that is spread due to flood waters contaminated
with faecal matter and urine from infected rats (Gubler et al., 2001; Moreno, 2006; Sachan and Singh,
2010) Gubler et al. (2001)define Leptospirosis as “an acute febrile infection caused by bacterial species of
Leptospira that affect the liver and kidneys.” While rats are a known reservoir of the leptospirosis (Hales et
al., 2003) infection can occur from other wild or domestic animals such as dogs that come into contact with
63
water, damp soil, vegetation or any other contaminated matter (Gubler et al., 2001) Hansen et al., 2005).
Further, as stated in the IPPC Fourth Assessment report “there is good evidence to suggest that diseases
transmitted by rodents sometimes increase during heavy rainfall and flooding because of altered patterns
of human–pathogen–rodent contact” (Confalonieri et al., 2007). Additionally, leptospirosis has been found
to be one of the diseases of importance contracted by travellers (Jansen et al., 2005) and could therefore
have implications for tourists.
The Bahamas relies heavily on the importation of food and with limited land area, this creates waste
disposal problems. Poor dumping practices encourage scavengers and vermin (Cox et al., 2005) which
harbour leptospirosis pathogens (Cox et al., 2005). In the CAREC Annual Report 2008, data shows that
reported cases of leptospirosis were significantly higher during the rainy season (CAREC, 2009). In a
Barbados study, the disease is associated with adults, and sanitation and agricultural workers which are at
higher risk (Everard et al., 1995). In 2008 there were 4 reported cases of leptospirosis and 2 cases in 2007
(CAREC, 2009).
64
4.5.
Marine and Terrestrial Biodiversity and Fisheries
“The moment your toes touch sand and your gaze meets water, you know you’re in The Islands Of The
Bahamas”; these introductory words of The Bahamas official tourism website immediately highlight the
importance of the country’s natural resources to its key economic sector, tourism. The freshwater supply
for hotels and golf-courses, the coral-sand beaches, clear waters and colourful underwater world that
attract millions of visitors each year are all part of the ecosystem goods and services provided by the
country’s biodiversity. The Bahamas’ marine environment is famous for such fascinating features as the
Lucaycan Caverns, reputed to be one of the largest underwater cave systems in the world, and the Barrier
Reef of Andros Island which is the world’s third longest. It has been estimated that only 5% of the country’s
species have yet been described but still The Bahamas boasts over 1100 species of higher plants, about 120
of which are endemic, and about 375 species of animals, over 40 of which are endemic. Bahamian
biodiversity is of global importance since the islands and cays provide refuge to some endangered species
such as the loggerhead turtle and The Bahamas Parrot.
The plants and animals that make up The Bahamas’ key ecosystems - coral reef systems, seagrass beds,
mangrove forests and pine and coppice forests - provide opportunities for employment and for the
development of the tourism industry in the form of eco-tourist attractions, sports fishing and dive tourism.
These ecosystems also provide numerous other goods to the population in terms of food, medicines,
industrial and agricultural products. For example, synthetic prostaglandins, drugs used in treating a variety
of medical illnesses, have been isolated from Bahamian sea fans benefitting local as well as global
communities. Healthy ecosystems are better able to provide essential ecosystem services such as the role
that forests serve in the prevention of soil erosion, removal of pollutants, provision of clean water,
microclimate regulation and maintenance of soil fertility that are essential to sustainable agriculture and
food security. From a social point of view The Bahamas natural resources are also closely tied into the
country’s cultural values and history. This is reflected in the National Symbol for The Bahamas, its coat of
arms, which prominently features the conch, blue marlin, flamingo and palm frond as a symbol of the
country and its people. The following sections of this report will examine the goods and services provided
by those terrestrial and marine ecosystems of The Bahamas that are particularly important to tourism and
its related sectors. The vulnerability of these ecosystems to existing non-climatic stressors as well as
current and future climate change impacts will also be assessed.
4.5.1. Background
Status of forests
Unlike most other Caribbean islands, the terrestrial environment of The Bahamas is dominated by pine
forests (2,278 km2) on the northernmost islands, and a type of hardwood dry forest known as Coppice
(7,108 km2) in the south-eastern islands. These forest ecosystems are important as habitats for a number of
endemic and endangered plant and animal species. Forests also provide protection from soil erosion; a
significant service provision given that Bahamian soil is generally thin, fragile and calcareous due to the
limestone geology of the islands (BEST, 2001). The pine forests in particular are vital to maintaining the
quality of the islands shallow freshwater lenses that supply most of the country’s water demands. Both
coppice and pine are commercially viable sources of lumber.
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Pine forest
In The Bahamas, pine forests comprise 23% of the terrestrial ecosystems and are found only on the
northern islands of Grand Bahama, Abaco, New Providence and Andros, which contains 55% of the
country’s pine forest (Figure 4.5.1). These pines, growing on limestone rock, are the largest of this type of
forest in the world. The Caribbean Pine (Pinus Caribaea), also known as Yellow Pine, has been used by
Bahamians for lumber for hundreds of years. The wood obtained from these trees was used locally in boat
building and fuel production and have also been a means of foreign exchange.
Pinelands, as these forests are also called, are important habitat to a number of species. The endemic
Bahama Yellowthroat, the Abaco Parrot, as well as wintering migratory birds such as the endangered
Kirtland's warbler make nesting and roosting grounds within pinelands. Birds and other wildlife in pine
forests are important to the country’s eco-tourism and are also hunted for sport.
The most important aquifers in The Bahamas are located beneath pine forests. This ecosystem is therefore
essential to recharging and maintaining the quality of freshwater lenses through the absorption and
filtering of rainwater. The country relies on groundwater to meet the majority of its freshwater water
demands, the greater part of which arises from the tourism sector. Loss of forest cover through
deforestation or climate change would greatly impact on the socio-economic development of the nation.
Coppice land
A diverse group of native trees and plants make up Bahamian coppice land. There are basically two types of
coppice land in The Bahamas: the whiteland coppice, which occupy near shore areas, and blackland
coppice, which are surrounded by Caribbean Pine forests in the interior of the islands.
Whiteland coppice forms a transition zone from beaches to mangroves. This makes it the preferred habitat
of land crabs; a crustacean that has made an interesting entrance into the tourism sector. On the island of
Andros, Bahamians have made a rewarding industry of traditional crab hunting through the creation of the
annual Andros Crab Fest (Rolle, 2007). The event, supported by The Ministry of Tourism as a heritage
tourism product, presents economic opportunities for hoteliers, vendors and taxi and ferryboat operators
(The Bahamas Weekly, 2010).
Blackland coppice is associated with pine forests where the decomposing leaf matter beneath pine trees
support the growth of the mahogany, horseflesh, mastic and cedar trees that make up blackland coppice.
Historically the hard-wood trees harvested from these forests have provided lumber to construct houses
and boats.
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Figure 4.5.1: Caribbean pine forest in Abaco, Bahamas
Non-climate stressors on forests
The quest for economic advancement threatens the survival of Bahamian forest ecosystems. Decades of
commercial tree felling to meet the demands for lumber had depleted all the virgin forest of Abaco by the
early 1940’s. Pinelands were also cleared for cultivation, particularly for cane crops. In more recent times
the expansion of the tourism industry and urban sprawl has required the removal of forest cover in order to
obtain land for hotels and houses. The removal of trees, particularly mature ones, destroys and fragments
habitats, reduces forest production and decreases the resilience of the ecosystem to damaging climate
change impacts.
The relationship between freshwater systems and pine forests is clearly seen in the case of pine forests on
Grand Bahama Island. Mining activity by the Martin Marietta Bahama Rock limestone quarry has resulted in
saltwater intrusion of the freshwater lens adjacent to the mine. Consequently the Caribbean Pine forests
that used to flourish in the area are now dying because of the decline in quality of their water supply
(Woon, 2008). Some islands in The Bahamas may at times suffer from water shortages and must resort to
importing water. Given that tourism, the country’s economic lifeline, is a water-intensive industry and that
forests assist in maintaining the quantity and quality of aquifers, then forests must be carefully managed to
ensure vital water resources are not jeopardised.
Status of mangroves
The Bahamas has about 4,286 km2 of mangrove forest and other wetlands (BEST, 1999). There are
discrepancies in figures for total mangrove cover; however, a 2005 estimate by FAO reported 1400 km2 of
mangrove forests distributed over 20 sites, 10 of which are within protected areas (FAO, 2005). Mangroves
are spread all over the archipelago with particular concentrations on the islands of Great Nicaragua, the
Bight of Aklins, the western shores of Andros and Great Abaco and the north shore of Grand Bahama
(Figure 4.5.2). Mangrove forests form the basis of a complex food web of plants and animals. Many
creatures make mangroves their breeding grounds, nurseries or habitat. For example, resident and
migratory birds may be found roosting within the branches of mangrove trees, and many fish find shelter
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among the roots. Other ecosystems such as coral reefs and seagrass beds benefit from the mangrove’s
ability to filter sediments and pollution that would otherwise cloud the water and contribute to algal
blooms.
Mangroves also provide a myriad of benefits to humans by protecting the environment. Their roots
contribute to soil stability by encouraging sedimentation and reducing erosion. Mangrove forests act as a
natural sea-wall against the high energy waves and strong winds that batter coastlines during extreme
events. A comparison of two villages in Sri Lanka that were struck by tsunamis reveals the role of healthy
mangrove forests in saving lives. In the village of Kapuhenwala, which is surrounded by 200 ha of mangrove
forest, only 2 people died as a result of the tsunami as compared to the death toll of 6000 in the village of
Wanduruppa where the mangroves are severely degraded (IUCN, 2005).
The economic importance of mangroves comes not only from their protection of costly infrastructure but
also their ability to enhance industries. The fish nurseries among their roots provide critically important
habitat for commercially important species such as snappers, Nassau grouper, barracuda and bonefish.
These fish have been particularly important to both the fishing and tourism industries of The Bahamas for
many years. In 2004, an estimated US $30,000 was generated from using wetlands for recreational
purposes on Inagua and Grand Bahama islands (BEST, 2006a).
Figure 4.5.2: Extant forests and mangroves of The Bahamas
(Source: The Nature Conservancy)
Non-climate stressors on mangroves
Although there is growing appreciation for their importance mangroves are still at times destroyed in
pursuit of more seemingly profitable ventures. The development of tourism in The Bahamas causes direct
destruction of mangroves when the swamps are cleared to make room for tourism infrastructure. For
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example, construction of the Bimini Bay Resort and Marina led to the removal of mangroves in order to
build a hotel, golf course, casino and two marinas (BNT, 2008). The Government of Bahamas continues to
promote investment in marinas and cruising facilities for residents and tourists. Without careful planning
such development will threaten the survival of mangroves and the species that depend on them.
Leaching and run-off of land based pollutants are another threat with which all coastal ecosystems,
including mangroves, must contend. Pollution degrades the quality of water, clogs mangrove roots and
places great stress on their filtering mechanisms. The porous nature of Bahamian soil exacerbates the
negative impacts that surface and groundwater pollution can have on mangrove trees.
Status of beaches
Bahamas coral-sand beaches stretch for thousands of miles and draw thousands of tourists to the country
annually. They form a major part of the country’s “sand, sea and sun” tourism package and as such form
the basis of the country’s economy and supports approximately half of the labour force (BEST, 2001).
Beaches are also important as launching and landing sites for fishing boats and recreational water-crafts.
Coastal infrastructure is protected from wind and wave erosion by the presence of beach vegetation that
acts as a natural windbreak and holds the sand in place.
Sandy shores also serve an ecological function through the provision of habitat to many unique creatures
including endangered marine turtles that return annually to nest on Bahamian shores. Sand dunes, which
are formed by the roots of beach vegetation, are a reservoir of sand for beach nourishment and provide
aggregate for building construction.
Non-climate stressors on beaches
Expansion of tourism and residential infrastructure, sand extraction, and invasive species are constant
pressures on the beaches of The Bahamas. Coastal development disrupts the natural cycle of accretion and
erosion of sandy beaches for when buildings are erected too close to the beach they accelerate the erosion
of sand and reduce the width of beaches. This not only makes beaches less attractive but is also costly and
dangerous because reduced beach width allows waves to break further inshore and wear away at the
foundation of homes, resorts and condominiums. Developments on Treasure Cay and Lyford Cay in The
Bahamas have caused observable and significant losses of sand from nearby beaches (BEST, 2001).
In attempt to beautify their surroundings Bahamians have unfortunately introduced invasive species of
plants, such as casuarina (Gilbert, 2009). These plants tend to dominate the environment and destroy the
native vegetation of dunes that are critical to stabilising the sand. The shallow roots of the casuarina are
unsuitable for the beach environment as they fail to trap sand and are easily uprooted during hurricanes.
The proliferation of these trees has led to the destruction of many sand dunes and threatens the long-term
integrity of the coastline.
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Figure 4.5.3: Beach erosion exacerbated by the invasive Casuarina tree
(Source: Neil Sealey, 2006)
Sand mining for building aggregate and export is another pressure on beaches especially as demands for
Bahamian sand increases. Some of the islands in The Bahamas already show signs of the negative effects of
sand mining (BEST, 2006b). The impacts of human stressors on reefs, which are important to sustaining the
dynamics of sand movement, will be discussed in the following section.
Status of coral reefs
Bahamian coral reefs are some of the most diverse and extensive in the Caribbean Region (Table 4.5.1 and
Figure 4.5.4) (BEST, 2001). Possessing more than 50 documented species of hard coral, numerous patch and
fringing reefs and the world’s third largest barrier reef (229km) The Bahamas may own as much as 4-5% of
the world’s coral reef biodiversity (BEST, 1999).
The importance of coral reefs to The Bahamas is evident in the abundance of marine life that inhabits reefs
and supports the tourism and fisheries industries. The aesthetic value of coral reefs and the variety of sea
creatures that inhabit them are appreciated by Bahamians and attract thousands of tourists and divers to
the islands annually.
Reefs also act as natural breakwaters and protect lives and property of the low-lying islands and cays from
erosive wave action by dissipating the energy of incoming waves. As previously discussed, beaches are
dependent on reefs as the primary source of sand. A single large parrotfish browsing on corals can
contribute an estimated 2-3 tonnes of sand per year (Karleskint, Turner, & Small, 2009). This sandy
sediment is also essential for the growth of the seagrasses (see section on Seagrass beds). Healthy reefs
therefore maintain the health of their surrounding ecosystems.
Biomedical research is yet another area in which humans benefit from coral reefs. Prostaglandin, one of the
newest cancer fighting drugs, was first isolated from Bahamian sea fans (BEST, 1999). By protecting its reefs
The Bahamas benefits locally as well as hold the potential to improve global healthcare.
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Figure 4.5.4: Location of coral reefs in The Bahamas
(Source: Coral Reefs of the World, 1988, Vol. I: Atlantic and Eastern Pacific International Union for Conservation of
Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN) United Nations Environment Program (UNEP)
Table 4.5.1: Important reef regions in The Bahamas
Reef Regions
Approximate Areas km
Little Bahama Bank
323
Biminis
90
Berry Islands & Andros
182
New Providence
30
Eleuthera & Cat Island San Salvador, Rum Cay 200
Conception Island
132
Exuma Cays & Ragged Island
386
Samana Cays
50
Plana Cays
31
Mayaguana
72
Inagua
164
Hogsty Reef
23
Cay Sal Bank
153
Crooked & Acklins Islands
151
(Source: The College of The Bahamas, Research Unit, 2005. Data adapted from Linton, et.al, 2002)
Non-climate stressors on coral reefs
Compared to most of the Caribbean The Bahamas reefs are some of the least threatened (Burke, et al.,
2004). Nevertheless, Bahamian reefs are still facing multiple and serious threats from human activities. The
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negative impact of anthropogenic stresses is clearly seen in the decline in condition of those reefs off of the
more developed and more populated islands, such as those in the south, which exhibit higher algal cover
and lower fish abundance and diversity, compared to the healthy condition of isolated reefs in the
Northern islands (Linton, et al., 2002). The poor reef health is likely attributable to inadequate waste water
treatment, fertiliser run-off and fishing pressure. Dredge-and-fill activities for the construction of marinas
and cruise ship facilities also decrease water quality and deposits sediment on reefs.
The Reefs at Risk analysis identified overfishing as the main stressor to Bahamian coral reefs, affecting
about 20% of the reefs (Burke, et al., 2004). A diversity of fish maintains coral reef health and any upset in
the balance of species can be harmful. For example, overfishing of herbivorous fish can damage coral
health, as they are necessary for keeping algal growth in check. Furthermore some fishing methods can
cause direct damage to reefs. Some Bahamian fishermen have adopted a very destructive fishing practice:
that of using household bleach for the taking and capture of crawfish (lobster) and scalefish (BNT, 2005).
Bleach can destroy the coral’s delicate tissue allowing coral to be overgrown with algae.
Marine based recreation activities can also pose a threat to coral health if not carefully managed. Careless
diving behaviour such as touching coral or kicking sand onto reefs easily removes the protective film from
coral polyps and leaves them more susceptible to disease. The damage done by one visitor, when
multiplied by the thousands who visit the islands each year, can exceed the corals ability to recover from
injuries.
Seagrass beds
Seagrass beds are important for stabilising the sea bed and providing habitat to juvenile fish and
commercially important species such as conch and lobster. Seagrass beds are areas of high productivity
producing more than 4000 g C/m2/yr, contributing significantly to tropical reef and other nearshore
communities. Preliminary results of a study conducted by Dierssen and Zimmerman found that per area,
seagrass ecosystems of the Bahama Banks were many times more productive than the world’s oceans with
seagrass meadow productivity contributing as much as 7.6 x 1013 g C/yr, or 2% total ocean productivity
(Dierssen & Zimmerman, 2003). These ecosystems are therefore a significant part of the ocean’s carbon
cycle. They also play a role in maintaining the clarity of sea water, and important service to recreational
activities such as snorkelling.
Non-climate stressors on seagrasses
Siltation from coastal construction and the discharge of pollutants into the sea smothers the blades of
seagrasses. Careless boating practices and dredging for marinas scars seagrass beds and uproots plants
reducing the ecosystem’s overall primary productivity and destroying key habitat and nursery for other
marine life.
Fisheries
The Bahamas fishery resources are important to the country’s economy through the local sale of fish, conch
and lobster exports and for the support it provides to the tourism industry. On average the fisheries sector
contributes between 2.5-3% to GDP and employs about 9,300 fishers (Department of Fisheries).
Commercial and artisanal fishing are a major source of income to some of the rural communities in The
Bahamas allowing them to enjoy a relatively high standard of living (FAO, 2009a). The diversity of species
found on the wide coastal shelf is important to the country’s most important industry not only for food but
also for sport fishing opportunities and dive tourism.
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Lobster and conch fisheries
The main species targeted for food in The Bahamas are: lobster (crawfish), conch, snappers and groupers.
Of these, the Caribbean spiny lobster is the most valuable species accounting for almost 90% of earnings
from fisheries (FAO, 2009a). The Bahamian crawfish industry is the world’s fourth largest and is the second
largest lobster fishery in the Caribbean (BREEF, Bahamas Reef Environment Education Foundation, 2006). In
2002 fishing mortality rates and a declining trend in stock biomass indicated that the lobster stock was
close to being fully exploited (Gittens & Braynen, 2002).
Conch is the second most valuable species landed, contributing over US $3 million to the total fisheries
earnings in 2007. The marine mollusc is primarily harvested as a supplementary means of income during
the closed season for lobster. Most conch are consumed locally but there are significant earnings from its
export. The status of conch in The Bahamas is not well known but declining landings and low densities
indicate the resource may be below sustainable fishing pressure in localised areas (Stoner & Ray, 1996;
Department of Marine Resources, 2005).
Nassau Grouper fishery
The Nassau grouper is a popular item on restaurant menus and is also favoured among divers and sportfishers. The Nassau Grouper fishery in The Bahamas is still considered to be commercially viable, unlike
other parts of the Region (Department of Marine Resources, 2005). The Nassau fishery has been regulated
by a closed season over the past decade in order to protect spawning aggregations from being overfished.
Non-climate stressors on fisheries
Illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing is a major threat to Bahamas fisheries. In fact, a recent
report by a marine scientist from the University of Miami identified poaching by commercial fishermen
from the Dominican Republic as the ‘greatest single threat’ to Bahamian fisheries (Smith, 2011). The
Bahamas’ fisheries are well legislated but the vast Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) challenges the Fisheries
Department to effectively enforce regulations and monitor fish stocks.
A recent business venture that has raised concern among citizens and environmentalists is The Bahamas
Pelagic Aquaculture Tuna Fishing Program proposed by brothers David and Paul Mellor. The plans are to
harvest yellowfin tuna using purse seine nets and then transfer the fish into large cages where they will be
kept for rearing. Concerns have been expressed over the sustainability of the amount of fish that will be
harvested as well as the environmental impacts of the purse seine method.
The invasion of the venomous lionfish has been a serious threat to the fishing and tourism industry. Studies
have shown that a lionfish can consume over 75% of a reef’s fish population in a matter of weeks (Hixon,
Albins, & Redinger, 2009). Such competition could cause Bahamas fisheries to collapse and lead tourists to
other countries in search of more colourful reefs.
Other significant species and habitats
Turtles
Four species of sea turtles: the loggerhead, the green turtle, the hawksbill turtle and the leatherback turtle
are found around the islands and cays of The Bahamas. These creatures are an important part of the
country’s marine biodiversity. As of 2009 The Bahamas fisheries regulations were amended so that all
marine turtles are now protected and banned from exploitation. Although hunting pressure on marine
turtle populations has now been reduced they must still contend with climate change impacts that can
destroy nesting sites and habitats. A 1m SLR is expected to cause damage to 35% of sea turtle nests in The
Bahamas. Intense tropical cyclones and accompanying storm surge will alter beachfront and impact on
nesting areas (Simpson, et al., 2010). Warmer temperatures may skew sex ratios in developing eggs and
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thereby reduce the reproductive capacity of sea turtles. Such impacts will mean a loss of potential for the
country’s expanding ecotourism industry and a disruption of its marine ecosystem.
Marine mammals
Marine mammals that are occasionally spotted in The Bahamas include 3 species of dolphin: the
bottlenose, the Atlantic spotted and the spinner, and four species of migratory whales: minke, sperm,
beaked shortfin and humpback. Dolphins in particular have been a popular tourist attraction since the
1980’s. Whale watching is conducted from the islands of Grand Bahama, Bimini and Abaco Island and has
increased in the number of tours offered over the years. Despite there being only about 11 persons
employed in this business it generated US $3,983,310 in total expenditures in 2008 (O’Connor, Campbell,
Cortez, & T.Knowles, 2009). There is untapped potential for income from whale watching however such
potential may not be realised since current evidence suggests that the distribution and/or abundance of
cetaceans are likely to alter in response to continued changes in sea surface temperature with global
climate change (Lamberta, Hunter, Pierce, & MacLeod, 2010).
Sharks
The Bahamas has one of the world’s largest and most diverse shark populations, including hammerheads,
tiger sharks, nurse sharks, makos and lemon sharks. Expenditure on shark related tourism amounts to
approximately US $78,000,000 each year (Lowe, 2011). Studies conducted on the Great Barrier Reef in
Australia indicate that changing temperatures, SLR and changes in ocean currents as a result of global
climate change may affect shark behaviour and distribution (Hobday, Okey, Poloczanska, Kunz, &
Richardson, 2006). Loss of marine biodiversity will mean significant loss of earnings for the economy and
loss of livelihood opportunities for Bahamians. Although not yet documented, sharks may be potential
predators of the invasive lionfish which are rapidly spreading throughout the Caribbean region. Maintaining
shark populations may therefore help to reduce the damage done by this invasive species.
Although there are currently no specific regulations on shark fishing, the ban on longline and gillnet use
essentially prohibits the commercial harvest of sharks. However a local sea-food company has expressed
interest in starting a shark-finning operation and this presents a very real threat to The Bahamas shark
population since the lack of regulations means that there is presently no control over the harvest of these
species.
4.5.2. Vulnerability of biodiversity and fisheries to climate change
Climate change impacts on forests
The effects of global warming such as SLR, intensified storms and changes in precipitation patterns will
have compounding impacts on Bahamian forests. Climate models indicate increases in peak wind
intensities and rainfall associated with cyclones in the Atlantic. SLR and storm surge from hurricanes pose a
big threat to ground water resources associated with forests. Increased salinisation of freshwater lenses
may cause changes in the growth patterns and species composition of pine and coppice forests. Intensified
extreme events will also reduce tree cover increasing the risk of soil erosion (NCCC; BEST, 2005).
Climate model projections suggest that there will be changes in seasonal precipitation with a tendency
towards decreases in rainfall during MAM and JJA, and small decreases in SON and DJF. The forests of The
Bahamas have already experienced the damaging impacts of combined extreme weather events when
portions of Abaco’s pine forest were damaged by Hurricane Floyd in 1998 and subsequently suffered
further the following year when an extended drought caused forest fires that destroyed hundreds of acres
of pine stands (Myers, Wade, & Bergh, 2004). Fires can be both friend and foe to Caribbean Pine forests.
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These forests are known as “fire climax communities” meaning that they require periodic fires to remove
shading, broad-leaf trees so that juvenile pines can get sufficient light. However if fires occur too often they
can be detrimental to the forest by reducing the recovery period and creating a shortage of the fruit and
seeds which forest inhabitants feed on. Frequent fires may result from protracted periods of drought
brought on by climate change and will retard sufficient pine regeneration over the long-term.
Climate change impacts on mangroves
It is anticipated that global climate change will aggravate the impacts of current human stressors on
mangroves and further reduce their natural resilience. Observed and GCM ensemble projections of
temperature change in The Bahamas will not likely have adverse direct impacts on the country’s mangrove
forests. However, mangroves could be indirectly impacted since increased temperatures will be damaging
to coral reefs, which mangroves depend on for shelter from wave action.
SLR is expected to pose the greatest climate change threat to mangroves (McLeod & Salm, 2006). A 1-2 m
rise in sea level is projected to affect 5-10% of Bahamas wetlands by either expanding or confining their
habitat. SLR and salt water intrusion will increase soil salinity and may allow wetland vegetation to spread.
This could result in a change in Bahamas pine and coppice forests composition as they gradually evolve into
perennial wetlands (BEST, 2001). On the other hand, if mangroves are obstructed from migrating inland
due to man-made infrastructure, they may be over-come by SLR and eventually lost.
The location of mangrove stands along coastlines increases their vulnerability to the impacts of hurricaneforce winds and storm surge. Bahamian mangrove forests have suffered damages from cyclones which strip
trees of their leaves and alter seed dispersal and seedling recruitment (Rathcke & Landry, 2003). Mangrove
species exhibit different responses to storm damage and a forest’s community structure could thus be
changed by tropical storms and hurricanes. The long term effects of extreme events on mangrove stands
are uncertain but will most likely mean a loss of the many essential services provided by these ecosystems.
The best approach is therefore to preserve and build mangrove communities given the economic and life
saving benefits they offer.
Climate change threats to beaches
The islands of The Bahamas are low-lying with an average elevation of about 10 m (maximum elevation 60
m). SLR thus poses serious threats to the country’s economy, livelihoods and physical security. Most hotels
and resorts in The Bahamas are situated along the coastline to take advantage of the attraction of the
islands’ beaches. These structures are thus highly vulnerable to any significant coastal erosion that will
result from SLR and tropical cyclones. Buildings and other coastal infrastructure will also prevent the
natural migration of beaches inland with SLR – typically beaches migrate 100 m inland (horizontally) for
every 1 m of SLR (vertical) (Bruun, 1962). The loss of beach width due to man-made structures is already
happening in many coastal areas in The Bahamas and globally and has been termed “coastal squeeze”.
Hurricanes and such extreme weather events can cause dramatic changes to beachscape by removing large
volumes of sand in just one event (Figure 4.5.5). The recovery of a beach from an extreme event may be
lengthy depending on the extent of damage done and the available sand reserves which can be constrained
by coastal development and coral reef health. The presence of coastal vegetation is an important factor in
the recovery and stabilisation of dunes and beaches.
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Figure 4.5.5: Beach erosion along Cabbage Beach
(Source: The Tribune, 2010)
Climate change impacts on beaches will threaten the survival of other species such as marine turtles and
shore birds. A 1 m SLR is predicted to damage 35% of turtle nesting sites (Simpson, et al., 2010). As a
signatory to CITES The Bahamas has an obligation to protect these marine reptiles.
An indirect impact of climate change on beaches will come from damages to nearshore coral reefs. Coral
reefs are important sources of sand therefore the negative impacts that climate change is expected to have
on them will mean a loss of reserves for beach nourishment. The impacts of climate change on coral reefs
will be considered in the following sections.
Climate change impacts on corals
The ability of coral reef ecosystems to survive the impacts of climate change will depend on the extent of
degradation caused by local stressors and the frequency of exposure to climatic impacts (Donner, 2005).
Increased sea surface temperature, ocean acidification, SLR and extreme events will each increase incidents
of coral damage. Corals are vulnerable to thermal stress and have low adaptive capacity to changes in
temperature. In response to an anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) (about 1°C above average
seasonal temperature) and increased solar radiation corals bleach, i.e. expel the symbiotic algae that are
critical to the life of the coral (Mimura, et al., 2007). Observed SST from the HadSST2 gridded dataset
indicates statistically significant increasing trends in JJA (+0.09˚C) and SON (+0.09˚C) in the waters
surrounding The Bahamas for the period 1960-2006. GCM projections indicate increases in SST throughout
the year ranging from +0.9˚C and +3.0˚C by the 2080s across all three emissions scenarios. Such
temperature increases will result in more frequent coral bleaching events and widespread mortality, unless
corals are able to acclimatise to warmer waters (Nicholls, 2007). Fortunately The Bahamas corals have not
suffered as much from bleaching events as some other islands have. One survey conducted after the mass
bleaching episode of 2005 recorded 17% of bleached coral but no recently killed coral. A subsequent survey
the following year recorded 18% live coral cover indicating that there was little or no coral mortality in The
Bahamas (Jones, et al., 2007). However climate models imply that thermal thresholds will be exceeded
more frequently with the consequence that bleaching will recur more often than reefs can sustain (Donner,
2005).
Recent research in The Bahamas showed that corals inside an MPA recover faster after a mass bleaching
event because the larger biomass of herbivorous fish – such as parrotfish - inside MPAs keep the corals free
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of harmful algae during their slow recovery (Mumby & Harborne, 2010). This ability of MPAs to increase
the resilience of corals is particularly important as the impacts of climate change are projected to
accelerate in the coming decades.
Warmer oceanic waters will facilitate the uptake of anthropogenic CO2 which will decrease the pH of the
seawater. The impacts this will have on marine ecosystems are still unknown, though some scientists
suggest that more acidic waters may dissolve and weaken the skeletal structure of coral and other
calcifying organisms. Coral structure is also susceptible to heavy damage from hurricanes as they may be
broken, uprooted and destroyed during high wave or storm surge events. Hurricanes are expected to
increase in intensity over the coming years and each event will set back any recovery that damaged reefs
have been able to make. The loss of corals would mean greatly reduced biodiversity and ecosystem
functions in coastal areas, as well as substantial economic losses to the fisheries and tourism sectors
(Anderson, 2000).
Climate change and sea grass beds
There has been little study on climate change impacts on sea grass beds. The proximity of seagrass beds to
coral reefs exposes them to similar climatic change impacts such as increased SST, SLR, ocean acidification
and increased storm intensity. Climatic stressors added to existing local stressors can reduce the
productivity of seagrass meadows resulting in direct impacts to commercial fisheries and recreational
marine activities.
Climate change impacts on fisheries
Little is known about the long-term effects of climate change in the Caribbean Sea and on its fisheries. As
previously discussed, climate change will generally have negative and possibly debilitating impacts on coral
cover, seagrass beds and mangrove ecosystems that are all important to various life stages of commercial
fish. Removal of this service will reduce the abundance and diversity of reef fish.
Pelagic fisheries, including blue marlin and swordfish, are important game fish in The Bahamas. Warmer
waters may drive pelagic species away from the tropics in search of cooler temperatures and could
potentially alter breeding patterns. An additional concern is that SST increases can increase the frequency
of algal blooms as well as the likelihood of ciguatoxin infection, a potentially fatal toxin to humans that
accumulates in the tissues of some species of fish (BEST, 2001; BBC, 2010).
77
Table 4.5.2: Summary table of biodiversity in Bahamas and related anthropogenic and climate change threats
Threats
Climate change
Ecosystem/species
Goods/Services Rendered
Forests
Lumber, wood for fuel, fish
pots, crafts; agricultural
land, climate regulation,
flood defence, medicinal
Deforestation, urban
sprawl,
Salt water intrusion,
drought, intensified
cyclones, increased fires
Mangroves
Soil stability, sediment
deposit, nursery for marine
species, natural water filter,
storm defence, nesting and
roosting grounds for birds,
medicinal, tannins
Removal of mangroves
for construction,
dredging, nearshore
pollution
Sea level rise, changes in
precipitation, intensified
cyclones, indirect impacts
from loss of coral reefs due
to climate change
Beaches
Tourist attractions,
shoreline defence, nesting
grounds for turtles
Coastal erosion from
construction, poorly sited
groynes, near shore
pollution, illegal sand
mining
Sea level rise, increased
wave action from extreme
events
Corals Reefs
Primary productivity,
habitat for marine species,
beach protection and
stability, sand source,
fisheries resource,
medicinal significance,
tourist attraction
Sedimentation from
construction, overfishing,
destructive fishing
methods, land based
pollution including raw
sewage, physical damage
from anchors and divers
Sea temperature rise, sea
level rise, ocean
acidification, intensified
storms
Seagrass beds
Primary productivity,
nursery for marine species
(supports fisheries and dive
tourism), nitrogen fixation,
shoreline stability, reducing
turbidity of water, food
source for green turtles,
recycle nutrients
Deteriorating water
quality (sedimentation,
eutrophication), anchor
damage, dredging
Sea level rise, intensified
storms, potential impacts
from ocean acidification and
increased sea surface
temperature
Fisheries
Important source of
protein, provides livelihood
for fishers, fish processors
and vendors,
Overfishing of near shore
reefs, degradation of
nurseries and habitats
(mangroves, sea grass
beds, coral reefs)
Sea level rise, sea surface
temperature increases may
damage threaten reef
fisheries, SST may change
migration and reproductive
patterns; may make species
more susceptible to disease
Other species:
Important to the food web,
ecotourism opportunities
Pollution of marine
environment, overextraction, poaching
Temperature rise may alter
breeding and migration
patterns.
Sea Turtles
Anthropogenic
Marine mammals
SLR will reduce available
nesting sites for turtles
Sharks
78
4.6. Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Impacts on Coastal Infrastructure
and Settlements
4.6.1. Background
Small islands have the majority of their infrastructure and settlements located on or near the coast,
including government, health, commercial and transportation facilities. In the Caribbean more than half of
the population live within 1.5 km of the shoreline. The Bahamas is no exception to this as the economy is
dominated by the tourism sector, which accounts for over half of the country’s gross domestic product
(BEST, 2001). With its high-density development along the coast, the tourism sector is particularly
vulnerable to climate change and SLR. This section of the report will focus on the coastal vulnerabilities
associated with ‘slow-onset’ impacts of climate change, particularly inundation from SLR and SLR induced
beach erosion, as they relate to tourism infrastructure (e.g., resort properties), tourism attractions (e.g.,
sea turtle nesting sites) and related supporting tourism infrastructure (e.g., transportation networks). These
vulnerabilities will be assessed at both the national (The Bahamas) and local (Eleuthera and Harbour Island)
scale, with adaptation and protection infrastructure options discussed. Please refer to the following section
for climate change vulnerabilities and adaptation measures associated with event driven or ‘fast-onset’
impacts such as disasters and hazards (e.g., hurricanes, storm surges, cyclones).
Coastal areas already face pressure from natural forces (wind, waves, tides and currents), and human
activities, (beach sand removal and inappropriate construction of shoreline structures). The impacts of
climate change, in particular SLR, will magnify these pressures and accelerate coastal erosion. Areas at
greatest risk in The Bahamas are Eleuthera and Harbour Island, including notable hotels many parts of the
highway, and airports that lie less than 6m above sea level and will all therefore be affected. The estimated
coastline retreat due to SLR will have serious consequences for land uses along the coast (UNFCCC, 2000;
Mimura et al., 2007; Simpson et al., 2010), including tourism development and infrastructure. A primary
design goal of coastal tourism resorts is to maintain coastal aesthetics of uninterrupted sea views and
access to beach areas. As a result, tourism resort infrastructure is highly vulnerable to SLR inundation and
related beach erosion. Moreover, the beaches themselves are critical assets for tourism in The Bahamas,
with a large proportion of beaches being lost to inundation and accelerated erosion even before resort
infrastructure is damaged.
4.6.2. Vulnerability of Infrastructure and Settlements to Climate Change
As outlined in Section 3.11, there is overwhelming scientific evidence that SLR associated with climate
change is projected to occur in the 21st Century and beyond, representing a chronic threat to the coastal
zones in The Bahamas. The sea level has risen in the Caribbean at about 3.1 mm/year from 1950 to 2000
(Church et al., 2004). Global SLR is anticipated to increase as much as 1.5 m to 2 m above present levels in
the 21st century (Rahmstorf, 2007; Vermeer and Rahmstorf, 2009; Grinsted et al., 2009; Jevrejeva et al, nd;
Horton et al., 2008). It is also important to note that recent studies of the relative magnitude of regional
SLR also suggest that because of the Caribbean’s proximity to the equator, SLR will be more pronounced
than in some other regions (Bamber et al., 2009; Hu et al., 2009).
Based on the sea-level rise scenarios for the Caribbean (see sections 3.11 and 3.12) and consistent with
other assessments of the its potential impacts (e.g., Dasgupta et al., 2007 for the World Bank), 1.0 m and
2.0 m sea-level rise scenarios and beach erosion scenarios of 50 m and 100 m were calculated to assess the
potential vulnerability of major tourism resources across The Bahamas.
79
To examine the SLR exposure of The Bahamas, research grade Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and
Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) data sets that were recently
publically released by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Japanese Ministry
of Economy, Trade and Industry, were integrated into a Geographic Information System (GIS). The ASTER
GDEM was downloaded from Japan’s Earth Remote Sensing Data Analysis Centre using a rough outline of
the Caribbean to select the needed tiles, which were then loaded into an ArcMap document. The next step
was to mosaic the tiles into a larger analysis area, followed by the creation of the SLR scenarios as binary
raster layers to analyse whether an area is affected by SLR through the reclassification of the GDEM
mosaics (see Simpson et al., 2010 for a more detailed discussion of the methodology). These assessments
were used to calculate the impacts of sea level rise on the islands.
To examine SLR-induced coastal erosion, a simplified approximation of the Bruun Rule (shoreline recession
= sea-level rise X 100) that has been used in other studies on the implications of sea-level rise for coastal
erosion was adopted for this analysis. The prediction of how sea-level rise will reshape coastlines is
influenced by a range of coastal morphological factors (coastal geology, bathymetry, waves, tidal currents,
human interventions). The most widely used method of quantifying the response of sandy coastlines to
rising sea levels is the Bruun Rule. This rule is appropriate for assessing shoreline retreat caused by the
erosion of beach material from the higher part of the beach and deposition in the lower beach zone, reestablishing an equilibrium beach profile inland (Zhang et al., 2004).
A summary of results for SLR and erosion impacts in The Bahamas at the national level are noted in Table
4.6.1. These results highlight that some tourism infrastructure is more vulnerable than others. A 1 m SLR
places 36% of the major tourism properties at risk, with an additional 50% at risk with a 2 m SLR. It is
important to note that the critical beach assets would be affected much earlier than the SLR induced
erosion damages to tourism infrastructure.
Table 4.6.1: Impacts associated with 1m and 2m SLR and 50m and 100m beach erosion in The Bahamas
Tourism Attractions
SLR
Erosion
Transportation Infrastructure
Major
Tourism
Resorts
Sea Turtle
Nesting
Sites
Airport
Lands
Road
Networks
Seaport
Lands
1.0m
36%
35%
38%
14%
90%
2.0m
50%
37%
53%
19%
90%
50m
58%
80%
-
-
-
100m
70%
80%
-
-
-
Indeed if erosion is damaging tourism infrastructure, it means the beach will have essentially disappeared.
With projected 100 m erosion, nearly all the resorts in The Bahamas would be at risk. Such impacts would
transform coastal tourism in The Bahamas, with implications for property values, insurance costs,
destination competitiveness, marketing and wider issues of local employment and economic well-being of
thousands of employees. Sea turtle nesting sites, a tourist attraction, are also at risk to SLR and erosion,
with 80% affected by 50 m erosion scenario and all at risk with 100 m beach erosion. Transportation
infrastructure, also of key importance to tourism, is at great risk. Ports are the most threatened, with 90%
of port lands in the country projected to be inundated with a 2 m SLR, followed by 19% of road networks,
or 290 km of road and approximately 53% of airport lands.
80
Given The Bahamas’ tourism dependent economy, the country will be particularly affected with annual
costs as a direct result of SLR. For example, the tourism sector in The Bahamas will incur annual losses
between US $869 million in 2050 to over US $2.6 billion in 2080 (based on a mid range scenario). Capital
costs are also high, with rebuild costs for tourist resorts damaged and inundated by SLR amounting to over
US $400 million in 2050 up to US $946 million in 2080. Infrastructure critical to the tourism sector will also
be heavily impacted by SLR resulting in capital costs to rebuild ports estimated to be between US $234
million by 2050 to US $449 million by 2080. Capital costs to rebuild roads are estimated to be between
$110 million in 2050, to $211 million by 2080. Airports, which are very expensive and essential tourism
infrastructure, will be greatly impacted by SLR resulting in estimated rebuild costs of $926 million (2050) to
$1.8 billion (2080).
In addition to the national assessment, the CARIBSAVE partnership coordinated a field research team with
members from the University of Waterloo (Canada), Oxford University (UK) and The Bahamas
Meteorological Service to complete detailed coastal profile surveying. The field team conducted 15 survey
transects (perpendicular to the shoreline) at locations on Eleuthera Island and Harbour Island where
tourism infrastructure was present and in two locations where future development was planned (Figure
4.6.1 and Figure 4.6.2). The sites were surveyed using Trimble Geo-XT(R) satellite-based augmentation
system (SBAS) differential GPS units with sub-metre accuracy in both horizontal and vertical planes.
Figure 4.6.1: High Resolution Coastal Profile Surveying with GPS
Vertical measurements were adjusted according to the height of the receiver relative to the ground. The
water’s edge was fixed to a datum point of 0 for the field measurements, but later adjusted according to
tide charts. Generally, satellite connections were very good, receiving up to 10 satellites, resulting in submetre accuracy. The mean vertical accuracy for all points was approximately 0.6 m while the horizontal
accuracy had a mean average of 0.5 m accuracy. Each transect point measurement was averaged over 30
readings taken at 1 second intervals. At each point, the nature of the ground cover (e.g., sand, vegetation,
concrete) was logged to aid in the post-processing analysis. Ground control points (GCP) were taken to
anchor the GPS positions to locations that are identifiable from aerial photographs to improve horizontal
accuracy. These were taken where suitable landmarks existed at each transect location and throughout the
island. GCP points were measured over 60 readings at 1 second intervals.
Following the field collection, all of the GPS points were downloaded on to a Windows PC, and converted
into several GIS formats. Most notably, the GPS points were converted into ESRI Shapefile format to be
used with ESRI ArcGIS suite. Aerial Imagery was obtained from Google Earth, and was geo‐referenced using
the GCPs collected. The data was then inspected for errors and incorporated with other GIS data collected
while in the field. Absolute mean sea level was determined by comparing the first GPS point (water’s edge)
to tide tables to determine the high tide mark. Three dimensional topographic models of each of the study
sites were then produced from a raster topographic surface using the GPS elevation points as base height
information. A Triangular Irregular Network (TIN) model was created to represent the beach profiles in
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three dimensions. Contour lines were delineated from both the TIN and raster topographic surface model.
For the purpose of this study, contour lines were represented for every metre of elevation change above
sea level. Using the topographic elevation data, flood lines were delineated in one metre intervals. In an
effort to share the data with a wider audience, all GIS data will be compatible with several software
applications, including Google Earth.
Figure 4.6.2: GPS Surveying Transects on Harbour Island
The high resolution imagery provided by this technique is essential to assess the vulnerability of
infrastructure and settlements to future sea-level rise, but its ability to identify individual properties also
makes it a very powerful risk communication tool. Having this information available for community level
dialogue on potential adaptation strategies will be highly valuable. Table 4.6.2 shows that even under a 0.5
m sea-level rise, 69% of the highly valued beach resource on Eleuthera and Harbour Island would be
inundated. The response of tourists to such a diminished beach area remains an important question for
future research; however local tourism operators perceive that these beach areas along with the prevailing
climate are the island’s main tourism attractions.
Table 4.6.2: Eleuthera and Harbour Island Beach Resources at Risk to Sea Level Rise
SLR
Scenario
0.5 Metre
1.0 Metre
2.0 Metre
3.0 Metre
Beach Area Lost
(m²)
144,894
155,278
179,715
208,959
82
Beach Area Lost
(%)
69.34%
74.31%
86.01%
100.00%
Figure 4.6.3 clearly illustrates that the longer term erosion response of the shoreline to a 1 m sea-level rise
(dashed red lines) would have significant implications for the shoreline and the loss of a total of 7 high
value commercial tourism properties and 71 private residences along the western shore of Harbour Island.
Figure 4.6.3: Sea Level Rise Vulnerability on Harbour Island – Zone A and B
83
4.7.
Comprehensive Natural Disaster Management
4.7.1. History of disaster management globally
Though natural hazards have been affecting populations and interrupting both natural and human
processes for millennia, only in the last several decades have concerted efforts to manage and respond to
their impacts on human populations and settlements become a priority. Most recently these efforts have
been informed by work at the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR), a United Nations agency
for disaster reduction created after the 1990s International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction. After
several years of reporting on hazards and impacts, the ISDR created the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA)
in 2005. This strategy aimed at preparing for and responding to disasters was adopted by many countries in
order to address a growing concern over the vulnerability of humans and their settlements. The HFA took
the challenges identified through disaster management research and practice and created five priorities:
Priority #1: Ensure that disaster risk reduction is a national and local priority with a
strong institutional basis for implementation.
Priority #2: Identify, assess and monitor disaster risks and enhance early warning.
Priority #3: Use knowledge, innovation and education to build a culture of safety and
resilience at all levels.
Priority #4: Reduce the underlying risk factors.
Priority #5: Strengthen disaster preparedness for effective response at all levels.
(ISDR, 2005)
Extensive elaboration of each priority is beyond the scope of this report, however, there are some key
points to discuss before moving forward to a discussion of the local disaster management context. Priority
#1 of the HFA can be thought of as the foundation for hazard and disaster management.
Given that governance and institutions also play a critical role in reducing disaster
risk,…fully engaging environmental managers in national disaster risk management
mechanisms, and incorporating risk reduction criteria into environmental regulatory
frameworks [are key options for improving how institutions address disaster-related issues]
(UNEP, 2007, p. 15).
The Hyogo Framework suggests strengthening effective and flexible institutions for enforcement and
balancing of competing interests (UNEP, 2007).
Priority #2 focuses on spatial planning in order to identify inappropriate development zones, appropriate
buffer zones, land uses or building codes and the use of technology to model, forecast and project risks
(UNEP, 2007, p. 15). The development of technology for mapping, data analysis, modelling and
measurement of hazard information offers decision makers a much better understanding of the interaction
hazards have with their economy and society.
Priority #3 encourages the promotion and integration of hazard education within schools to spread
awareness of the risks and vulnerability to the individuals of at-risk communities. This relates to climate
change awareness as well. The countries of the Caribbean, including The Bahamas, not only face annual
hazards, but will also be directly affected by changes in sea levels, more extreme temperatures and other
predicted climate changes. By educating children, hazard information will be transferred to adults and basic
knowledge about threats and proper response to hazards, as well as climate change, can help improve
community-level resilience. It is important that hazard and climate change awareness be promoted within
84
the tourism sector as well, since tourists may not be familiar with the hazards in their destination and will
thus require direction from their hosts.
Priority #4 of the HFA demands the synthesis of the previous three priorities: governance, education and
awareness, and appropriate technologies. “To develop and implement effective plans aimed at saving lives,
protecting the environment and protecting property threatened by disaster, all relevant stakeholders must
be engaged: multi-stakeholder dialogue is key to successful emergency response” (UNEP, 2007). Not only is
this dialogue encouraged here; Goal 8 of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), also advocates for
participation and open communication. As climate change threatens the successful achievement of the HFA
and the MDGs, simultaneous dialogue about development and risk management will ensure continued
resilience in communities and countries across the Caribbean.
The final priority of the Hyogo Framework, Priority #5, is geared toward a more proactive plan of action,
rather than the reactive disaster management that has failed to save lives on many occasions in the past. It
is now commonplace to have this same proactive approach to disaster management. However, finding
ways to implement and execute these plans has proven more difficult (Clinton, 2006). As you will note,
managing disaster risks requires a cross-sectoral understanding of the interdependent pressures that
create vulnerability as well as demanding cooperation of various sectors.
4.7.2. Natural hazards in the Caribbean and The Bahamas
There are three broad categories of hazards, and the countries in the Caribbean Basin could face all, or
most, of them at any given time.
Table 4.7.1: Types of Hazards in the Caribbean Basin
Hydro-meteorological
Geological
Biological
Hurricane
Tropical Storm
Flooding
Drought
Storm Surge
Landslide/mud-flow
Earthquake
Volcano
Tsunami
Epidemic
Wildfire/Bushfire
The Bahamas is at risk to all of these hazards except volcanoes and, because of the topography, the islands
face very limited landslide risks. Flooding is commonly associated with weather troughs and frontal systems
and often storm surges accompany flooding during tropical storms and hurricanes (Smith, Zapata, & Meli,
2007). Health epidemics in The Bahamas range from vector-borne diseases, like dengue fever, to infectious
diseases like influenza; further details on disease outbreaks and their relationship with climate change have
been discussed in detail in Section 4.4 Human health in this profile.
As mentioned, much of the biological diversity, infrastructure, industries and communities of The Bahamas
will be increasingly prone to natural disasters under climate change, in particular sea-level rise and extreme
events such as hurricanes, floods and drought. The Bahamas archipelago is located to the north-east of the
Caribbean Sea in the ‘Atlantic Hurricane Belt’; an area that has historically seen repeated hurricane
85
impacts. Recent hurricanes have had significant physical impacts in The Bahamas. Additionally there have
been economic disruptions and livelihood impacts.
[F]ollowing Hurricane Frances [in August 2004], the Crowne Plaza Golf Resorts and Casino at
the Royal Oasis in Grand Bahama laid-off some 1,300 employees. The resort is expected to
remain closed until February 2005. ...Old Bahama Bay in Grand Bahama closed until late
November, leaving 146 employees temporarily jobless, and Club Viva Fortuna on that island
closed until December, leaving 150 people jobless. ...Club Med in San Salvador closed after
the property was damaged by Hurricane Frances. The exquisite resort was expected to
remain closed for eight weeks. (Small, 2004)
Regular hurricane and tropical storm impacts in The Bahamas have led to a situation where many funds are
dedicated to recovery and reconstruction and that means money is not available for sustainable
development projects. Furthermore, the major economic contribution tourism makes in The Bahamas
means that interruptions in tourist flows affect employment and the greater economy as well. Projected
changes in climate, specifically SLR, are likely to change the natural environmental features tourists expect
(e.g. coral reefs and beaches), as well as seriously affecting tourism infrastructure located in low lying
coastal areas – discussion of specific vulnerability of biological diversity and tourism infrastructure is
located in sections 4.5 and 4.6 respectively.
In 2004 two storms, Hurricane Jeanne and Hurricane Frances, impacted Bahamas. Their impacts revealed
the vulnerability of The Bahamas islands to flooding, storm surge and high winds. The location of the
archipelago has meant frequent hurricane and tropical storm impacts, but it is their physical geography
that creates even greater risk. Of particular concern during hurricanes in The Bahamas are the impacts from
flooding and storm surge, as well as droughts. A summary of recent impacts and losses from hurricane
events, Table 4.7.2, demonstrates the regularity with which Bahamas have been hit with this hazard and
the great losses that have resulted from hurricane impacts. Exposure is high in the Bahamas and the
frequency of hurricane impacts generates great vulnerability because households and businesses can be in
a perpetual stage of reconstruction and recovery.
Under projected climate change scenarios, the low-lying nature of these islands exposes much of the
population to the impacts of storm surges and also makes much of the population highly vulnerable to SLR.
Climate change projections indicate that SLR will also increase the storm surge heights in the future and
therefore some of the smaller islands of The Bahamas will see increased flooding associated with
hurricanes. Although the frequency of tropical storms cannot be predicted, climate scientists suggest that
storms will increase in intensity which will lead to greater wind speeds in the storms that do occur (see
Section 3: Climate Modelling). Maps and further discussion of some of the likely impacts from SLR can be
found in the section on Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Impacts on Coastal Infrastructure and Settlements.
86
Table 4.7.2: Summary of Recent Tropical Storm and Hurricane Impacts
Date
Storm name
Locations Impacted
# of People Affected
# of Deaths
Economic Impacts
1966 - Oct
Tropical Storm Ines
Nassau, Bimini
3 injured
5 dead
US$ 15,500,000
1992 - Aug
Hurricane Andrew
Eleuthera, Bimini, Berry Islands
1,700 homeless
4 dead
US$ 250,000,000
1999 - Sept
Hurricane Floyd
Grand Bahama, Providence Island, San
Salvador, Eleuthera, Abaco, Cat island,
Rum Cay, Man-O-War Cay, Green Turtle
Cay, Elbow Cay, Harbour, Govenor, Nassau
1,500 homeless
1 dead
US$ 450,000,000
2001 - Nov
Hurricane Michelle
New Providence
0
0
US$ 300,000,000
2004 - Sept
Hurricane Francis/Jeanne
Great Abaco, Grand Bahama
9,000 homeless
12 dead
US$ 1,550,000,000
2005 - August
Hurricane Wilma
Cat Island
1,500 homeless
200 homes destroyed
1 dead
0
2007
Hurricane Noel
Long Island, Cat Island, Exuma
7,000 homeless
(3,500 affected Long
Island,
2,000
displaced Cat Island,
1,500 Exuma)
1 dead
US$ 100,000,000
2008
Hurricane Ike and Hanna
Inagua
3,000 homeless
0 dead
0
(Source: EM-DAT, 2009 and ReliefWeb, 2011)
87
4.8. Community Livelihoods, Gender, Poverty and Development: the Case
Study of the Abaco Island Communities, The Bahamas
Where disasters take place in societies governed by power relations based on gender,
age or social class, their impact will also reflect these relations and as a result, people’s
experience of the disaster will vary.
Madhavi Ariyabandu (UNECLAC, UNIFEM and UNDP, 2005)
4.8.1.
Background
Abaco Island was selected as the community in which to implement the Community Vulnerability and
Adaptive Capacity Assessment methodology developed by The CARIBSAVE Partnership based on the
established criteria and recommendations from the Government of The Bahamas.
According to The Bahamas Ministry of Tourism website (MOT, 2011). The Abacos are known as one of the
world’s top boating and sailing destinations. The Abaco Islands form a boomerang-shaped 120-mile-long
island chain that stretches over 650 square miles. Great Abaco’s coastline features full-service marinas and
resorts. Marsh Harbour is the main town with a selection of hotels, restaurants and bars, charter boat
services, and several full-service marinas. Treasure Cay to the north of Marsh Harbour is a hotel, golf
course, marina and real estate development wrapped around a beach and to the south lies Little Harbour, a
protected bay with a small artist colony. The main tourist activities apart from sailing are marine recreation
such as snorkelling, diving and fishing, golf and general touring of historic sites. The Abacos are accessible
through two international airports and a number of ferries and mail boats.
The Cays have a number of small fishing towns like Hope Town on Elbow Cay and New Plymouth on Green
Turtle Cay. Hope Town is home to a lighthouse, which was quite controversial when it was under
construction back in 1863 because up until then, the island’s residents had been making a comfortable
living by salvaging ships that wrecked on
the offshore reefs. Man-O-War Cay is a
conservative “dry” island, and The
Abacos’ boat-building centre, with a
naturally protected harbour and boatfitting and sail shops. Great Guana Cay
has a bar sitting on top of a tall sand
dune, which overlooks Guana’s sevenmile-long beach (MOT, 2011).
Abaco is the third most populous island
in The Bahamas with a population of
16,692 or 4.72% of the national total in
2010 (Bahamas Department of Statistics,
2010c) and unlike the rest of The
Bahamas, Abaco has maintained an
almost 50:50 distribution of Caucasian
and African-descent Bahamians from
plantation times (MOT, 2011). In addition
to the Bahamian nationals living on
Figure 4.8.1: Map of The Bahamas showing location of Abaco
(Source: http://www.1st-bahamas.com/bahamas_map.html)
88
Abaco, the population is swollen in winter months by second home owners (Kerr, 2006) and a continuing
challenge faced by The Bahamas in general including Abaco is the number of illegal and therefore
undocumented migrants from Haiti. Illegal immigration is a major problem for The Bahamas and in addition
to increasing population numbers, the location of immigrants and true density of some settlements are not
always well-known, thus creating a challenge for disaster preparedness and response strategies.
The assessment of Haitian migration into The Bahamas (The College of the Bahamas, 2005) indicates that
the Haitian community remain isolated but there is evidence that Haitians are availing themselves of the
government education services and health services. Given their status as low-income, unskilled labour, the
Haitian community live in poor quality housing, making them particularly susceptible to natural disasters.
The study makes specific reference to the communities in Abaco near Marsh Harbour and calls for
relocation following disasters (fires and hurricanes) or complaints about lack of garbage collection, human
waste contaminating the water table and migrant burial practices (The College of the Bahamas, 2005).
There has also been concern about the spread of disease such as cholera through these communities.
The role Haitian labour had played in the development of agriculture and forestry in Abaco was lauded
after the collapse of the citrus farms in 2005. Media-estimates of the Haitian population in Abaco are
between 4 and 10 thousand, which is substantial in a total population of over 16 thousand. This is
substantiated by the 2000 census data which puts the Haitian population at 24.5% of the total South Abaco
population (The College of the Bahamas, 2005) and also indicates that Haitians on Abaco are living above
the poverty line. A disproportionate number of Haitian children are attending government schools on
Abaco.
As discussed below, the settlements in Abaco are typically located in coastal areas. This settlement pattern
in combination with the low-lying topography and extended coastline places these communities at greater
risk from the natural hazards common to the rest of the Caribbean, i.e. storm surge, storm water run-off
challenges and the propensity for ponding (Environmental Solutions, 2005).
As described in Section 2.2, the national unemployment rate rose significantly between 2008 (8.7%) and
2009 (14.2%) (ECLAC, 2010b). The 2009 unemployment rate is reported to be the highest in over 10 years
(Central Bank of the Bahamas, 2010) with slightly
more men unemployed than women (14.4%
compared to 14%). The mean national income in
2009 was US $38,314 and the median income was
$30,318 (Bahamas Department of Statistics, 2009).
The CARIBSAVE Community Vulnerability and
Adaptive Capacity Assessment methodology uses
participatory tools to determine the context of the
community’s exposure to hazards, and a livelihood
approach to assess adaptive capacity. All data are
disaggregated by gender. The three main means of
data collection are: (i) a community vulnerability
Figure 4.8.2: Workshop group mapping exercise.
mapping exercise and discussion which are the main
activities in a participatory workshop; (ii) three focus
groups (two single-sex; and one for those in tourism-related livelihoods; and (iii) household surveys to
determine access to five livelihood assets (financial, physical, natural, social and human). Livelihood
strategies (combinations of assets) are evaluated to determine the adaptive capacity of households and
consequently communities. Due to the broad level of interest and existing vulnerabilities, participants came
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from Grand Abaco Island as well as from the smaller surrounding cays. The analysis that follows, and most
of the information in other sections on ‘Community Livelihoods, Gender, Poverty and Development’, have
been informed by a small sample of community members participating in the research. Observations may
be specific to some parts within the study area but overall findings (assessments of vulnerability and
adaptive capacity) are assumed to be representative for the entire community.
4.8.2. Natural Resources and Community Livelihoods
Observed Changes to the Natural Environment
Persons in the community considered themselves to have average (54%) to good (31%) understanding of
climate change. A number of workshops have been held in the community on conserving energy and
promoting energy efficiency and there has been one climate change workshop. The community clearly has
a good appreciation for the variety of impacts predicted to occur as well as existing vulnerabilities which
would be exacerbated by climate change. These include:
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sea level rise
increasing temperatures and the likely effects on agricultural productivity and ecosystems (change
in habitats, possible introduction or proliferation of invasive species)
changes in diurnal and seasonal temperatures with increased occurrence of temperature extremes
that may affect tourist destination choices by tourists seeking more comfortable conditions during
the winter season
physical changes that will impact social and economic elements of society (livelihoods, recreation,
etc.)
implications for other sectors such as energy (using heating and cooling systems more frequently in
response to temperature extremes) and freshwater
a concern about emerging economies (for example China, India) that depend on resource-intensive
and polluting industries
the need for Caribbean countries to protect their natural ecosystems, which serve as natural
defence mechanisms to protect the mainland from certain impacts
development projects that prove destructive or unsustainable to the natural environment.
This depth of understanding of the implications of climate change demonstrates that within the Abaco
community there are valuable resource persons who can assist in addressing vulnerability of communities.
Many community residents acknowledge and report experiences with/observations of climate change
impacts. Coral bleaching has been observed and a number of areas have been impacted by storms. These
areas include Hope Town where previous experiences with storms that devastated the community resulted
in the establishment of building and development protocols. However, it appears that lately these
protocols have been ignored or relaxed and development projects are underway in the same areas which
were previously devastated by hurricanes.
The area of Dundus Town and Murphy Town sits within a natural drainage course and as a result floods
very easily. No infrastructure has been erected to ease the water flow.
Natural Resources
There are a number of marine areas that support fishing, recreation and offer shoreline protection. The
Bahamian reefs are generally healthier than those in other countries around the Caribbean, but have also
suffered significant decline. These include the Cays that are surrounded on the eastern side by a number of
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reefs that are used for commercial and recreational fishing (e.g. bone fishing or catch and release), diving
and snorkelling. Fishing is a major industry in Green Turtle Cay. The Bahamas National Trust is
implementing Reef Check programmes to determine baseline conditions. Of concern is the report that
slums exist behind Marsh Harbour and the sewage produced is discharged untreated into the nearshore
and drifts outward for as much as two miles. This is likely to impact on the marine area and make it more
vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. However, this has not been confirmed.
The Bahamas National Trust manages National Parks or Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) in Manjack Cay
(proposed), Black Sound Cay Reserve, Walkers’ Cay - the most northern point of The Bahamas, Abaco
National Park, Pelican Cays Land and Sea Park and Tilloo Cay Reserve. There is an old growth pine forest
being considered by the Forestry Department for protected area status in the northern part of the island.
The Abaco National Park is an essential breeding and foraging area for the very endangered Bahama Parrot
(BNT, 2009).
There is extensive farmland in the north of Abaco island (about 3,700 acres), just south of Treasure Cay
Airport and in the south between Marsh Harbour and Cherokee Sound. The latter has been active for a long
time and sits on top of the water table, which is continually active. The land to the north is being cultivated
again after the decimation of citrus crops by disease in 2005. It is reported that there is little to no oversight
for monitoring of agro-chemical use on farmlands in this area, but this is in the process of being addressed,
at least from a policy standpoint. There is an extensive range of coppice lands in the south of the island,
typically along the coastal fringe. These areas support the survival of the Bahama Parrot and are privately
owned by various individuals. Sustainable development in this area is encouraged.
The observations made about farmland locations in relation to groundwater supplies raises concerns about
the management of natural resources. The vulnerability of the water supply infrastructure is discussed in
the next section, but it was also observed that the aquifers could also be affected by saline intrusion
(generally, and accelerated by sea level rise and storm surge events) because the island is very narrow.
Key Infrastructure
Freshwater is available from a few locations, with active well sites at Cedar Harbour, Marsh Harbour and
Spring City. New developments in the south of the island had to be connected to the Marsh Harbour water
distribution systems to ensure a reliable water supply. In Cooperstown, there is a large extraction site over
one of the largest freshwater lenses in Abaco (approximately 60 feet). Access to freshwater on many of the
cays is limited to a few Reverse Osmosis facilities that help to provide water for residents, rainwater
harvesting for residential and commercial properties, and shipping water from Great Abaco Island. On
Green Turtle Cay specifically, fresh water is now provided via pipeline from Great Abaco Island.
Key transport infrastructure exists throughout the island with 4 airports and a number of marinas including
7 official ports of entry (MOT, 2011). The marinas, especially, are vulnerable to coastal inundation and
storm surge impacts. Marsh Harbour has a cargo handling and loading area, which are critical to the island’s
trade activities, but are also vulnerable to these same impacts. A Ferry dock at Crown Haven facilitates ferry
services between Grand Bahama and North Great Abaco Island. Local authorities are also strongly
considering the establishment of a Ferry Dock in Cooperstown.
Residential and community infrastructure exist in a number of coastal towns and are potentially vulnerable
to coastal inundation from storm surge as well as sea level rise impacts. In many areas, development has
taken place on reclaimed marshland making them vulnerable to rainfall-induced flooding. The Marsh
Harbour and Treasure Cay area has schools and low-lying houses and New Plymouth, Green Turtle Cay is
reported to be slightly below sea level and could become partially inundated in the event of hurricane or
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intense low pressure activity. Many of the communities to the north of the island are situated on the
waterfront and there are some proposed tourism developments in the area for small facilities such as
motels and boutique-sized facilities. Wood Cay and Mount Hope (fishing communities) are susceptible to
sea level rise and storm surge impacts, as well as coastal inundation. The passage of Hurricane Floyd in
1999 severely affected both of these communities. In Cooperstown there is an administrative office and
government complex. On Walkers’ Cay there is a fishing community and in Fox Town there are a few
schools. Little Harbour is a second home owner community.
One of the key issues facing The Bahamas in assessing vulnerability is increasing illegal immigration.
Increasing numbers of illegal immigrants place considerable strain on existing infrastructure, and typically
live in poor quality housing that increases the vulnerability of the settlements. The nature of illegal
immigration means that vulnerable populations are typically underestimated which impacts on the ability
to plan adequately for future development, but also to ensure that there is adequate shelter, evacuation
and relief planning in the event of an emergency (Environmental Solutions, 2005). In 2004 The Bahamas
suffered a direct hit by two consecutive hurricanes - Hurricane Frances and Hurricane Jeanne. Abaco was
severely affected by both systems with a storm surge of 12-15 feet causing flooding and damage to
personal property, water supply, housing and infrastructure under Hurricane Frances. Three weeks later
Abaco was hit again by Hurricane Jeanne with similar effects.
Critical service infrastructure exists at: Little Harbour, where there is a light house that is currently out of
operation, but considered crucial for guiding marine vessels at night; Wilson City, where there is a nearby
power plant; and Fox Town, where there is a clinic and a police station.
Community structures/Governance
Environment-focused agendas and plans have been halted in the past as a result of a change in
government/leadership. So, there remains the need to plan in the long-term for sustainable development,
which is not possible if the priorities change with every change in leadership.
There are a number of government agencies involved in the development and support of the tourism
sector. The Bahamas Tourism Board promotes sustainable tourism development and facilitates sustainable
product/eco-product development and marketing. The Board also currently works (or previously worked)
with tour guides to educate the guides, and resource-intensive livelihood practitioners (fishermen) to
exchange information and involve them in policy development. The Ministry of Tourism facilitates tourism
project development and investment in The Bahamas.
There is a National Climate Change Committee chaired by the head of the Meteorological Department (Mr.
Arthur Rolle) under the auspice of The Bahamas Environment, Science and Technology (BEST) Commission
and a number of non-governmental organisations. As part of their mandate to manage the national park
system with a number of sites on Abaco, The Bahamas National Trust (BNT) promotes environmental
conservation and awareness through protection of sensitive ecosystems and biodiversity. The BNT also:
encourages sustainable recreational use of the parks by locals and visitors; and co-ordinates a large and
continuous education campaign which includes the Discovery Club and other youth programmes,
workshops for teachers (on wetlands, pinelands, and the three main protected species which include the
Queen Conch, the Nassau Grouper and the Spiny Lobster), and general public education throughout The
Bahamas.
The Sandwatch Foundation promotes the conservation of coastal and marine resources and ecosystems
through education, awareness and active participation programmes geared towards the youth. Friends of
the Environment promote education and awareness of environment issues, geared especially towards the
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youth. They also lead tours for various groups, and co-ordinate recycling campaigns and clean-ups
throughout Abaco. Eco-tours are popular in The Bahamas and the Ministry of Tourism and Friends of the
Environment collaborate frequently to implement eco-tourism projects.
There is a Bahamas National Climate Change Policy that speaks to ensuring Environmental Impact
Assessments incorporate climate change issues (NCCC-BEST, 2005), but it is perhaps the case that this
policy is not being adhered to. One example cited was where the central Bahamian government overruled
a local (Abaco) government decision against a proposed development that would negatively impact on
natural resources. Additionally, mangroves are cleared for development instead of being protected.
Financial resources in the community (which are typically sought through grants and donations,
membership drives and fund raising activities) are severely constrained as a result of current global and
national economic situations and the resulting budget cuts for local programmes. Major foreign financial
service providers were reported not to be very supportive during times of disasters and rebuilding.
As a result of previous experiences, Abaco residents take a lot more caution and proactive measures when
storms approach. In the aftermath of Hurricanes Frances and Jeanne in September 2004, it was reported
that most communities in The Bahamas in general seemed to be unaware of their vulnerabilities to storm
events, and the important role that they can play to reduce or avoid loss and dislocation (Environmental
Solutions, 2005). Nassau remains particularly vulnerable because persons take storm and hurricane
warnings less seriously and effect little preparations. Although Nassau is not the area being studied it is the
centre of the economy, so if Nassau is badly affected by a storm, then the entire country will be affected.
Implications for Vulnerability of Livelihoods
The Bahamas Initial Communication to the UNFCCC in 2001 indicated four key vulnerable sectors most
likely to be directly affected by the potential impacts of climate change: tourism, coral reef resources,
water resources and agriculture; with indirect effects on human health, human settlement and
infrastructure, the socio economic sector and the overall environment sector (BEST, 2001).
Many of the activities within Abaco are tourism-centred or based and the community felt that without
tourism, many of these activities would suffer tremendously directly and indirectly. The livelihood activities
that take place in the Abacos were reported as:
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Fishing
Farming
Direct tourism (marinas, small resorts)
Craft
Financial and other services
Construction
Other less widespread activities include mining and sustainable forestry.
As described above, there are a number of fishing communities that have already been impacted by
hurricanes and are also prone to flooding. Further degradation of the coral reefs through pollution such as
that reported at Marsh Harbour or from indiscriminate use of agro-chemicals will further threaten fishers in
Abaco and the surrounding Cays.
It has been reported that citrus crops have been decimated by disease in the past and that the aquifer is
threatened by saline intrusion through sea level rise. It is unknown whether the disease that impacted
crops is climate related, but certainly the spread of disease and invasive species is predicted to worsen
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under a climate change scenario. Similarly, groundwater supplies can be expected to become more scarce.
Both of these impacts threaten farmers’ livelihoods.
Tourism
Tourism has contracted sharply in the last 2-3 years as a result of the global economic recession and more
specifically the recession in the United States, the key source market for The Bahamas, which contributed
80% of arrivals in 2009(CTO, 2010).The slump in economic activity caused unemployment to spike from
8.7% in 2008 to 14.2% in 2009. As the recession deepened, job losses were experienced across a number of
sectors, including hotel and restaurants, construction and wholesale and retail trade (ECLAC, 2010b). The
combined grouping of hotels, restaurants, wholesale and retail commerce employed about 30% of the
entire Bahamian labour force in 2007 (Bahamas Department of Statistics, 2008). Further information on the
importance of tourism to The Bahamas as a whole can be found in Section 2.3.
The Abacos are grouped under The Family Islands in the Caribbean Tourism Organisation’s statistics and
these show that there has been a decrease in stopover tourists between 2007 and 2009 of approximately
19% and an increase in cruise ship arrivals of 14% over the same period. This is worse than the national
average in the case of stop over visitors and better than the national average for cruise ship arrivals (CTO,
2010). Although this decline in arrivals and therefore expenditure has not been caused by changes in
climate, it demonstrates the vulnerability of the country to external economic forces and suggests the
heavy impact that a decline in tourism can have.
There is a strong second-home owner community in Abaco who are deeply involved in the island’s affairs
and development and who are very important to the economy. Second home owners are persons who
have homes elsewhere (mainly countries such as the U.S., Canada and the U.K.) and then build second
homes in The Bahamas specifically for retirement or winter vacations. One of the likely impacts of climate
change will be a change in the seasonal and diurnal temperature patterns, with greater frequency of hot
extremes. This may affect tourist arrivals generally and the second-home owners especially since they seek
more comfortable conditions during the winter season, for they have already invested.
In addition to supporting fishermen and farmers, healthy natural resources also support livelihoods in the
tourism sector. In addition to the sports fishing and marine recreational activities such as diving and
snorkelling, there are also power boat races and many of the Cays; and the mainland, have a number of
homecoming festivals and events that are major tourism attractions. As with most Caribbean islands a large
proportion of the tourism infrastructure is located on the coast and is therefore vulnerable to sea level rise,
coastal inundation and storm surge. The consecutive occurrence of Hurricanes Frances and Jeanne in 2004
resulted in the closure of one major hotel in Grand Bahama and the loss of approximately 1,200 jobs, with
significant economic impact on the island as a result (Environmental Solutions, 2005).
4.8.3. Implications for Gender-Specific Vulnerability in the Abaco Islands
Socio-economic factors
Poorer residents and depleted environments are hit the hardest by disasters because of the debilitating
combination of existing vulnerabilities, risks and the degree of impact by events or hazards; whereas
stronger communities and balanced ecosystems tend to be more resilient (Buvinic, Vega, Bertrand, Urban,
Grynspan, & Truitt, 1999). The 2004 Labour Force survey showed that 65 % of households were headed by
males and 35 % by females and the average household income of households headed by females remained
considerably lower than those headed by males (B $34,070 compared to B $42,675) (Bahamas Department
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of Statistics, 2004). Our research found that the nuclear family type generally predominates, but on the
mainland there are many female heads-of-households.
Labour force statistics for 2009 indicate that marginally more men were unemployed, but at the same time
more men than women are actively participating in the work force (78.4 % compared to 69.1%).This
apparent contradiction is explained by the larger number of women that comprise the discouraged
workers, i.e. women who have been actively looking for work in the past and who have essentially given up
or who have chosen to remain unemployed (Bahamas Department of Statistics, 2009). This position was
somewhat re-enforced from the research in Abaco where it is perceived to be easier for men to find other
sources of employment (especially in construction) than women, especially after disasters. However, in
some cases women do find other sources of employment as well, and are generally engaged in more than
one activity.
The hotel and restaurant sector employs more women than men (19% of the female labour force compared
to 12% of the male labour force) (Bahamas Department of Statistics, 2009). Therefore any impacts on the
tourism sector will be hardest felt by women. As described in the section on Comprehensive Disaster
Management, Section 5.7, the Ministry of Tourism and Aviation does have a specific responsibility in the
event of a disaster. That is, they are responsible for coordinating activities to ensure that the tourism
industry is equipped to effectively respond to and recover from any disaster impacting the nation (UNEP,
2008).
Natural resources
The Abaco fishing industry is male-dominated. Therefore if this industry is heavily impacted, there may be
breakdowns of households headed by fishermen. Fishermen can and do usually engage in other sources of
employment (e.g. construction) because fishing is seasonal.
Similarly, since tourism in The Bahamas is heavily dependent on the health of natural resources available
such as beaches, good weather, clear water and vibrant ecosystems, any impact on these resources will
affect women who are more heavily employed in the sector.
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5. ADAPTIVE CAPACITY PROFILE FOR THE BAHAMAS
Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to evolve in order to accommodate climate changes or to
expand the range of vulnerability to which it can cope (Nicholls et al., 2007). Many small island states have
low adaptive capacity and adaptation costs are high relative to GDP (Mimura et al., 2007). Overall the
adaptive capacity of small island states is low due to the physical size of nations, limited access to capital
and technology, shortage of human resource skills and limited access to resources for construction (IPCC,
2001).
Low adaptive capacity, amongst other things, enhances vulnerability and reduces resilience to climate
change (Mimura et al., 2007). While even a high adaptive capacity may not translate into effective
adaptation if there is no commitment to sustained action (Luers and Moser, 2006). In addition, Mimura et
al. (2007) suggest that very little work has been done on adaptive capacity of small island states; therefore
this project aims to improve data and knowledge on both vulnerability and adaptive capacity in the
Caribbean small island states to improve each country’s capacity to respond to climate change.
Information on the following factors was gathered, where possible to reflect adaptive capacity for each
socio-economic sector:
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Resource availability (financial, human, knowledge, technical)
Institutional and governance networks and competence
Political leadership and commitment
Social capital and equity
Information technologies and communication systems
Health of environment
The information is arranged by sector, under the headings Policy, Management and Technology in order to
facilitate comparisons across sectors and help decision makers identify areas for potential collaboration
and synergy. Some of these synergies have been included in practical Recommendations and Strategies for
Action which is the following section of this report.
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5.1.
Water Quality and Availability
5.1.1. Policy
The Water Corporation and Sewerage Act (1976) “is the public utility charged with managing the
freshwater resources and maintaining potable water supply, quantity, quality and distribution. The
Corporation fulfils its mandate by operating and maintaining water supply systems throughout The
Bahamas Islands and providing oversight over private companies authorised by the WSC to provide potable
water” (BEST, 2006c). However, the Act needs to be revised particularly “in the light of severe
environmental, health, and financial issues facing the country the water and sanitation sector” (Hartnell,
2009) and it is in fact identified as a point of focus in the National Climate Change Policy of The Bahamas
(NCCC-BEST, 2005). There are plans for an IDB financed Water and Sanitation Strategic Sector Plan. The
Forestry Act and the Agricultural Land Leases Water Supply Provision(s) are also relevant to protecting the
quality of water and water usage.
In terms of the effects of drought which have been linked to deterioration of land in The Bahamas, there is
no specific legislation which addresses issues of land management and development. However, various
aspects that cater to the protection of the land resources of The Bahamas can be found in at least a dozen
Bahamian legislation, which include the following (BEST, 2006c):
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The Water and Sewerage Corporation Act (1976)
The Land Surveyors Act (1975)
Building Regulations Act (1971)
Conservation and Protection of the Physical Landscape of The Bahamas Act (1997)
The Bahamas National Trust Act (1959)
As stated in The Bahamas Initial National Communication to the UNFCCC there are few policy options that
can be employed to adapt to climate change. Agencies that have a role to play in land and water resource
issues include The Bahamas Environment, Science and Technology Commission, Water and Sewerage
Corporation, Ministry of Works and Tourism, The Bahamas National Geographic Information Systems
(BNGIS) Centre, Department of Agriculture, Department of Environmental Health Services, Department of
Lands and Surveys and the Department of Physical Planning among others. Another noteworthy institution
is the Ministry of Public Works and Utilities (MOPWU) which “issues water supply franchises to developers
in areas where the supply of water is impractical for GOB or its agencies to undertake… The WSC, with its
Water Resources Management Unit (WRMU) has responsibility for optimal development of the country’s
water resources and the control of water quality. It shares (with DEHS Department of Environmental Health
Services) the responsibility for monitoring water quality” (BEST, 2005).
In the Climate Change Policy 2005, policy directives that relate to water resources include (NCCC-BEST,
2005; BEST, 2006):
1. “Develop a long-term National Water Management Plan, which incorporates Climate Change
concerns including “worse case “scenarios of sea level rise, saltwater intrusion, and storm surges
leading to inundation of well fields, and the need to regulate water supplies to the different sectors
(domestic, tourism, agriculture and industry)”
2. “Assess and address needs for water storage and distribution infrastructure to ensure water
availability during drought periods, and for more efficient use of freshwater”
3. “Prepare emergency plans for water distribution during periods of drought”
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4. “Given that reverse osmosis will be necessary to augment groundwater supplies, ensure that the
brine produced is disposed of efficiently”
5. “Enact legislation to ensure that golf courses line their ponds and use grasses and other plants
tolerant to the use of brackish water for irrigation purposes, to the extent possible, and to provide
for the utilisation of storm water runoff for groundwater recharge”
6. “Encourage the use of waste heat from The Bahamas Electricity Corporation, and other appropriate
entities, for the desalination of seawater”
7. “Encourage the use of water saving devices that are water efficient or are low flow to reduce
wastage”
8. “Ensure synergies with the Caribbean Basin Hydrogeological Cycle Observing System (CARIBHYCOS)”
Another priority of the National Climate Change Committee is the “conservation and sustainable use of
groundwater resources” (BEST, 2006c).
The GOB initiated a National Capacity Needs Self Assessment (NCSA) and climate change was one of four
thematic areas focussed on to determine issues that were deemed to be impacting on the environment of
the country and impairing the country’s thrust to achieve its goals in a number international environmental
treaties.
The island is service-based, with tourism (60% of GDP) and the banking and finance (15% of GDP) sectors
accounting for the majority of the GDP (BEST, 2006c) which make the country very vulnerable
economically. As such, The Bahamas relies heavily on tourism as its natural resources are limited (BEST,
2001) which makes the country very vulnerable. This has been the case in the last three years where the
tourism industry has retracted as has been noted in The Bahamas IDB Country Strategy 2010 - 2014 report
(Spencer et al., 2010). In the short to medium term The Bahamas may face an increase in demand for
utilities which includes water resources (Spencer et al., 2010). The WSC already has significant financial
debt as Hartnell (2009) describes “without government subsidies it would have suffered a $24.107 million
net loss in 2007, the last year for which financial statements were available, had it not been for the receipt
of $20 million-plus in taxpayer funds.” Additionally, between 2000 and 2004 the operating balances of the
WSC as a non-financial corporation were negative and as high as B $-12.2 million in 2004 although in all of
these years, such figures amounted to less than 0.1% of the country’s GDP (Lewis et al., 2005).
A major reason that the current debt of the WSC is so high is due to the fact that while there has been an
increase in the utilisation and the reliance on the very costly reverse osmosis process for potable water,
tariffs have not increased since 1999 (Spencer et al., 2010). The roles stipulated for the WSC by the Water
Corporation and Sewerage Act (1976), are also contradictory where the corporation is both a utilities
provider and a water regulator (Spencer et al., 2010). There are therefore recommendations “for the
transfer of regulatory responsibility from the Water & Sewerage Corporation to the newly-formed Utilities
Regulation and Competition Authority” (Hartnell, 2009).
5.1.2. Management
The main organisation responsible for co-coordinating climate change issues in The Bahamas is The
Bahamas Environment, Science and Technology (BEST) Commission, and within it is a sub-committee called
the National Climate Change Committee (NCCC). The NCCC and the BEST Commission have recently
prepared a National Climate Change Policy; and within the document water resource management is
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addressed. With regards to water monitoring it is identified that an updated assessment of all water
resources from surface, ground water, brackish and freshwater, should be executed to form a basis for the
development of a National Water Management Plan (NCCC-BEST, 2005).
The Bahamas Water and Sewerage Corporation is responsible for the provision of water. The Bahamas
Initial National Communication to the UNFCCC notes “there are many gaps in existing data and information,
a lack of tools to assess the physical, social and economic impacts on the most vulnerable sectors of the
economy” where Water Resources and Supply were identified among these most vulnerable sectors (BEST,
2001). The efficient and effective running of this organisation has been impaired due to inadequate
provision of financial resources needed for “public awareness, education, training and development” in
various sectors including the water sectors (BEST, 2001).
A report by the Sustainable Economic Development Unit has stated that in The Bahamas “there are
remarkably few methods in place to encourage its efficient use or the use of other water supply such as
rainwater by the hotel and tourism sector” (SEDU, 2002). Research by Edwards (2004) found that hotels in
The Bahamas generally lack in sustainable water management practices, with only 42% having a towel and
linen reuse programme in place, 37% utilising gray water, 32% encouraging guests to conserve water and
26% utilising pipes with flow restrictors. Fifty seven percent of large hotels have implemented water saving
measures or initiated staff training in water conservation, compared to only 46% of small hotels. Where
small hotels have implemented water conservation practices, the report found that they were generally
less adept at water efficiency.
Increasing use of reverse osmosis has been taking place on the Family Islands, however because of the very
small size and highly dispersed nature of these communities the process is not cost effective (Cox et al.,
2005). In terms of the private business sector, according to a hotel survey by the Sustainable Economic
Development Unit of the University of the West Indies, 55% of hotels obtain their water supplies from the
government. However, some hotels utilise reverse osmosis, but due to the expense and the land space
required for operating reverse osmosis plants, installation is not recommended in some cases such as for
smaller hotels (SEDU, 2002). Hotel officials have identified training of staff in water conservation practices
as a means to increase water use efficiency. Additionally, the survey states that “a large number of hotels in
The Bahamas monitor water usage (80%) and 70% have implemented water-saving measures”. There is
also no regulation of private (illegal) wells which means the users of these wells are not billed for their
water consumption and it is uncertain how many people are abstracting from the same aquifer. This also
means that the level of abstraction and the effect such abstraction is having on aquifers is unknown
(Strachan, 2010).
An important issue in the management of water resources is that there is a lack of awareness by Bahamians
that they live in a water scarce country (Strachan, 2010). This may be partly linked to current tariffs that do
not reflect the true cost of water, especially in New Providence. While some initiatives such as the irrigation
of golf courses with waste water is practiced (Buchan, 2000; Cox et al., 2005), Bahamians generally do not
practice water conservation in proportion to the water resources available to them. The issue of public
awareness was highlighted in The Bahamas Initial Communication to the UNFCC (BEST, 2001).
5.1.3. Technology
Hydrological data are critical for making informed decisions regarding the development of water resources.
These data will become even more critical for observing changes in water supply and decision making
regarding the provision of water resources in future as a result of climate change related events such as
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droughts and tropical storms and hurricanes. Technology is one the limitations to improving water
efficiency in The Bahamas and because there is also limited scope for researching and developing local
water technology it has to be imported, which is invariably at a cost (BEST, 2001). Technology importation
is high in the water sector because of the great need to meet the water demands that exist on the island.
Foreign reserves will increasingly be required to acquire such technology and fossil fuel required of their
operations. In addition, there is a need for training of personnel in the areas of hydrology and natural
resource economics (BEST, 2001).
ICFC (2002) have found that there is a “lack of ready availability of national information contained in the
various Ministries that could be of immediate value for coastal zone planning and local decision making,
e.g., flood prone areas”. Additionally, a climate change database and information system is required to
form a resource platform from which more informed policy decisions can be made in the water sector. The
Bahamas National Geographic Information System Centre (BNGISC) as have an important role in the
realisation of such a database (BEST, 2001) through the use of GIS as well as the utilisation of remotely
sensed imagery and Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) (ICFC, 2002)
An example of an initiative that has sought to address the issue of information needed to making water
resource management decisions and which also has a climate change element is a study undertaken by
UNESCO. The project is entitled Understanding Climate Change and Linked Human Impacts on
Groundwater Resources of the Caribbean: A Collaborative GRAPHIC Case Study in The Bahamas where
GRAPHIC stand for "Groundwater Resources Assessment under the Pressures of Humanity and Climate
Change” and was launched in Nassau in 2008. The study’s objective was to determine the impacts of
climate change and humans on water resources in the Caribbean region and to form a scientific knowledge
base that could be used by decision makers in the water resource sector of The Bahamas through
measuring and compiling baseline data of groundwater resources. The site selected for the study was North
Andros aquifer and began in mid-2010 (UNESCO, 2008).
The Climate Change Policy 2005 aims to “ensure synergies with the Caribbean Basin Hydrogeological Cycle
Observing System (CARIB-HYCOS)” (NCCC-BEST, 2005).
100
5.2.
Energy Supply and Distribution
5.2.1. Policy
As evident from current energy documents in many countries both in the Caribbean and outside, tourism is
not central in the consideration of wider strategies to reduce energy use (Brewster 2005, Haraksingh 2001).
The National Policy for the Adaptation to Climate Change (NCCC-BEST, 2005) calls for the development of
the National Energy Policy as described in Section 4.2.2, but also makes specific reference to solar water
heating in the tourist sector through appropriate tax incentives. This document has shown for Bahamas,
that tourism’s share in energy use and emissions is considerable, and likely to grow in the future, leading to
growing vulnerabilities in a business-as-usual scenario. At the same time, the sector holds great potential
for energy reductions. The sector should thus be one of the focus points of policy considerations to decarbonise island economies. It is vital for governments to engage in tourism climate policy, because tourism
is largely a private sector activity with close relationships with the public sector at supranational, national,
regional and local government levels, and through politics, there is thus an outreach to all tourism actors.
Furthermore, governments are involved in creating infrastructure such as airports, roads or railways, and
they also stimulate tourism development, as exemplified by marketing campaigns. The choices and
preferences of governments thus create the preconditions for tourism development and low-carbon
economies. Finally, there is growing consensus that climate policy has a key role to play in the
transformation of tourism towards sustainability, not least because technological innovation and
behavioural change will demand strong regulatory environments.
As pointed out by OECD (2010b), emissions of greenhouse gases essentially represent a market failure. The
absence of a price on pollution encourages pollution, and creates a market situation where there is little
incentive to innovate. While governments have a wide range of environmental policy tools at their disposal
to address this problem, including regulatory instruments, market-based instruments, agreements,
subsidies, or information campaigns, the fairest and most efficient way of reducing emissions is to
considered to increase fuel prices, i.e. to introduce a tax on fuel or emissions (e.g. Sterner 2007, Mayor and
Tol 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010a,b; see also OECD 2009, 2010b; WEF 2009; PricewaterhouseCoopers 2010).
Carbon taxes may be feasible for accommodation, car transport and other situations where tourism
activities cause environmental problems. Taxation is generally more acceptable if taxes are earmarked for a
specific use, which in this case could for instance include incentives for the greening of tourism businesses.
Tax burdens would then be cost-neutral for tourism, but help to speed up the greening of the sector. If
communicated properly, businesses as well as tourists will accept such instruments, and the economic
effect can be considerable. The Maldives charge, for instance, USS10 per bed night spent in hotels, resorts,
guesthouses and yachts, which accounts for 60% of government revenue (McAller et al. 2005).
Money collected in various ways could be re-invested in sustainable energy development. Haraksingh
(2001), for instance, outlines that there is a huge potential to use solar energy. Both economical and noneconomical technical solutions to reduce the energy-dependency of islands in the Caribbean could thus be
implemented based on regulation, market-based approaches and incentives, as well as through financing
derived from voluntary and regulatory carbon markets. Policy intervention is however needed to initiate
these processes. Overall, Haraksingh (2001: 654; see also Headley 1998) suggests that:
101
The Caribbean region is a virtual powerhouse of solar and other renewable sources of
energy waiting to be exploited. It has the advantage of not having winters when hot water
demands can increase from summer by approximately 70% in cold climates. Solar water
heaters for the tourism industry and domestic and commercial usage have perhaps the
greatest potential. There is a general commitment to the development of RE, but matters
have not gone very far beyond this. The movement towards greater implementation of RE
technologies is gaining strength, but there is a large gap between policy goals and actual
achievement. Clearly, much work still needs to be done. Government fiscal incentives,
greater infrastructure for policy development as well as joint venture partnerships are
needed in the Caribbean region for a smooth transition.
Lorde et al. (2010) suggest that Government policy should encourage efficiency and innovation in electricity
production and distribution, noting that in particular the residential sector should be addressed in reducing
electricity use.
5.2.2. Management
Any action on reducing energy use and emissions of greenhouse gases has to begin with a review of
emission intensities, to enable action where this will lead to significant reductions. From a systems
perspective, hundreds of minor actions will not yield anywhere near as much as one change in the major
energy consuming sub-sectors. Aviation is thus, as outlined earlier, a key sector to focus on, followed by - in
smaller to medium-sized islands - hotels, as these are comparably energy-intense, while car-travel is not as
relevant. Cruise ships will often be the third most relevant energy sub-sector. This is however dependent
on whether fuels are bunkered in the respective island or not.
Tourism management is primarily concerned with revenue management, as the ultimate goal of any
economic sector is to generate profits and jobs. A general critique of tourism management in this regard
must be that it is too occupied with revenue, rather than profits as well as multiplier effects in the
economy. This is an important distinction because profits have been declining in many tourism sub-sectors,
such as aviation, where revenues have been increasing through continuously growing tourist volumes,
while profits have stagnated. This is equally relevant for average length of stay, which is falling worldwide:
to maintain bed-night numbers, destinations have consequently had to permanently increase tourist
numbers. Both trends need to be reversed.
In an attempt to look at both profits and emissions of greenhouse gases, a number of concepts have been
developed. One of the most important overall objectives can be defined as to reduce the average energy
use/emissions per tourist. In the case of Bahamas, average emissions per tourist are already comparably
low, i.e. corresponding to emissions of 600 kg CO2 per tourist for air travel (Table 4.2.4). Table 5.2.1
illustrates the situation for a number of islands in terms of weighted average emissions per tourist (air
travel only), as well as emissions per tourist for the main market. The table can serve as the first and most
relevant benchmark, i.e. emissions caused by one tourist arrival.
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Table 5.2.1: Average weighted emissions per tourist by country and main market, 2004
Country
Av weighted
International
Total emissions
Emissions per tourist,
emissions per tourist, tourist arrivals
air travel (1,000
main market (return flight;
air travel (return
(2005)
tonne CO2)
kg CO2) and percentage
*
*
flight; kg CO2)
share of total arrivals
Anguilla
750
62 084
47 672 (USA; 67%)
Bonaire
1302
62 550
81 803 (USA; 41%)
**
Comoros
1754
17 603
31 1929 (France; 54%)
Cuba
1344
2 319 334
3 117 556 (Canada; 26%)
Jamaica
635
1 478 663
939 635 (USA; 72%)
Madagascar
1829
277 422
507 2 159 (France; 52%)
Saint Lucia
1076
317 939
342 811 (USA; 35%)
Samoa
658
101 807
67 824 (New Zealand; 36%)
Seychelles
1873
128 654
241 1935 (France; 21%)
Sri Lanka
1327
549 309
729 606 (India; 21%)
Notes:* Calculation of emissions is based on the main national markets only, using a main airport to main airport
approach (in the USA: New York; Canada: Toronto; Australia: Brisbane); **Figures for 2004.
Source (tourist arrivals): UNWTO Compendium of Tourism Statistics, Madrid: UNWTO, 2007; and UNWTO, Yearbook of
Tourism Statistics Madrid: UNWTO, 2007.
(Source: Gössling et al., 2008)
A strategic approach to reduce per tourist emissions would now focus on further analysis of markets. To
this end, an indicator is the arrival-to-emission ratio, based on a comparison of the percentage of arrivals
from one market to the emissions caused by this market (Table 5.2.2). For instance, tourists from the USA
account for 67% of arrivals in Anguilla, but cause only 55% of overall emissions. The resultant ratio is 0.82
(55% divided by 67%). The lower the ratio, the better this market is for the destination, with ratios of <1
indicating that the market is causing lower emissions per tourist than the average tourist (and vice versa).
Arrivals from source markets with a ratio of <1 should thus be increased in comparison with the overall
composition of the market in order to decrease emissions, while arrivals from markets with a ratio of >1
should ideally decline. In the case of Anguilla, the replacement of a tourist with a ratio of >1 in favour of
one tourist from the USA (ratio: 0.8) would thus, from a GHG emissions point of view, be beneficial.
However, where arrivals from one market dominate, it may be relevant to discuss whether the destination
becomes more vulnerable by increasing its dependence on this market.
Table 5.2.2: Arrivals to emissions ratios
Primary market
Emissions ratio
Secondary market
Emissions ratio
Third market
Emissions ratio
Fourth market
Emissions ratio
Anguilla
Bonaire
Jamaica
USA
0.8
UK
2.5
-
USA
0.5
Netherlands
1.6
-
USA
0.8
-
-
-
-
-
Saint
Lucia
USA
0.9
UK
2.0
Barbados
0.1
Canada
1.0
(Source: Gössling et al. 2008)
To integrate emissions and revenue, energy intensities need to be linked to profits. An indicator in this
regard can be eco-efficiencies, i.e. the amount of emissions caused by each visitor to generate one unit of
revenue. This kind of analysis is generally not as yet possible for Caribbean islands due to the lack of data
on tourist expenditure by country and tourist type (e.g. families, singles, wealthy-healthy-older-people,
visiting friends and relatives, etc.), but Figure 5.2.1 illustrates this for the case of Amsterdam/Netherlands
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(Gössling et al. 2005). By assigning eco-efficiencies, it is possible to identify the markets that generate a
high yield for the destination, while only causing marginal emissions. For instance, in the case of
Amsterdam, a German tourist causes emissions of 0.16 kg CO2 per € of revenue, while a visitor from
Australia would emit 3.18 kg CO2 to create the same revenue.
Figure 5.2.1: Eco-efficiencies of different source markets, Amsterdam
(Source: Gössling et al. 2005)
These indicators can serve as a basis for restructuring markets, possibly the most important single measure
to reduce the energy dependence of the tourism system. However, further analysis is required to
distinguish revenue/profit ratios, leakage factors/multipliers (to identify the tourist most beneficial to the
regional/national economy) and to integrate market changes into an elasticity analysis (to focus on stable,
price-inelastic markets) (see also Becken 2008, Schiff and Becken 2010). No study that integrates these
factors has been carried out so far, but further developing such strategic tools for revenue and energy
management would appear useful for the Caribbean. In Barbados, a survey carried out in February 2011 to
better understand tourist perspectives on spending, length of stay, climate change and mitigation, yielded
some interested results in this regard, with 71% of respondents stating that they would have liked to stay
longer, and 61% stating that they had spend less money than planned. It is likely that similar results could
be found throughout the region, and further research needs to be carried out to identify how this potential
can be realised: longer stays increase the share of money retained in the national economy, primarily in
accommodation, while higher expenditure also contributes to increasing national tourism revenue, notably
with a lower leakage factor, as spending for air travel will usually entail smaller profit shares and higher
leakage. The Barbados study also revealed that 73% of respondents are willing to drive less by car, 70%
stated to be willing to use smaller cars, and 81% are positive about electric cars. With regard to A/C use,
one of the major factors in energy use in hotels, tourists also support resource savings: 71% stated to be
104
willing to use fans rather than air conditioning, 90% agree that switching off air conditioning when leaving
the room is acceptable, and 65% agree on using air conditioning at a 1°C higher temperature than the
ambient temperature actually experienced during the stay.
Further options to reduce energy use and emissions exist for businesses focusing on staff training. For
instance, Hilton Worldwide saved energy and water costs in the order of US$16 million in the period 20052008, primarily through behavioural change of employees as a result of a training in resource-efficiency.
These measures have to be discussed on the business level and are mostly relevant to accommodation and
activities managers. As about 15% of a typical Caribbean hotel’s operating cost may be attributable to
energy usage (Pentelow and Scott, 2011), management-related reductions in energy use of 20% would
correspond to savings of 3% on the overall economic baseline. This should represent a significant incentive
to engage in energy management. For further details on energy management see Gössling (2010).
5.2.3. Technology
The potential of saving energy through technological innovation has been documented for a growing
number of case studies. For instance, luxury resort chain Evason Phuket & Six Senses Spa, Thailand, reports
payback times of between 6 months and ten years for measures saving hundreds of thousands of Euros per
year. Examples of the economics of resource-savings from the Caribbean include five case studies in
Jamaica (Meade and Pringle 2001). Properties investigated within the framework of a re-structuring
programme include the Sandals Negril (215-rooms), which saved approximately 45,000 m3 of water
(compared to pre-Environmental Management System standards), 444 MWh of electricity, and 100,000
liters of diesel. The total investment for the program was $68,000. As Meade and Pringle (2001) outline,
with estimated savings of $261,000, the program yielded an annual return on investment (ROI) of 190%
over the first 2 years. The payback period for the initial investment was approximately 10 months.
A second case, the Couples Ocho Rios (172-rooms) saved approximately 31,000 m3 of water and 174 MWh
of electricity. The total investment for the program was $50,000: approximately $20,000 in equipment and
$30,000 in consulting fees. Based on the estimated savings of $134,000, the program yielded an annual ROI
of 200% over the first 16 months. This represents a payback period of just 6 months. The Swept Away (134rooms) saved approximately 95,000 m3 of water, 436 MWh of electricity, 172,000 liters of liquefied
petroleum gas and 325,000 liters of diesel. Based on available data, the total investment for the program
was approximately $44,000. Based on the estimated savings of $294,000, the program yielded an ROI of
675% over the first 19 months. The payback period for the initial investment was approximately 4 months.
The fourth establishment, the Negril Cabins (80-rooms) saved approximately 11,400 m3 of water and 145
MWh of electricity. In addition, the hotel achieved savings of over $5,000 on laundry chemicals since
August 1998 through its towel and linen reuse programs and efforts to reduce the use of laundry chemicals.
Based on available data, the total investment in the program was $34,670, and the resulting savings over
2.75 years are estimated to be $46,000, producing an annual ROI of 48%. Finally, Sea Splash (15-rooms)
saved approximately 7,600 m3 of water and 154 MWh of electricity. The cost of the project at this resort
was $12,259, and the savings since July 1998 are estimated at $46,000, yielding an annual ROI of 151% over
the first 2.5 years of the project. It is beyond the scope of this report to list all technical measures to reduce
energy use, and readers are referred to Gössling (2010) for further guidance: case studies provided in this
book indicate technology-based energy savings potentials of up to 90% for accommodation.
Often, it is also economically feasible to replace conventional, fossil-fuel based energy systems with
renewable ones, with payback times of 3-7 years (e.g. Dalton et al. 2009). Further evidence on the
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economic suitability of technological innovation to generate renewable energy in Barbados is provided by
Bishop et al. (2008). Bishop et al. (2008) propose a 10MW wind energy scheme based on micro wind
turbines of both horizontal and vertical axis configurations, and at costs as low as BDS$0.19 per kWh. The
scheme would also lead to savings of 6,000-23,000 t CO2 and avoided fuel costs of BDS$1.5–5.3 million. The
authors highlight that small wind turbines can be competitive with conventional wind farms.
As outlined, managers will usually be interested in any investment that has pay-back times as short as 5-7
years, while longer times are not favourable. While this would support investments into any technology
with payback times of up to 7 years, it also opens up opportunities to use the Clean Development
Mechanism (CDM) as an instrument to finance emission reductions. The CDM is one of the flexible
instruments of the Kyoto Protocol with two objectives: to assist parties not included in Annex I in achieving
sustainable development and in contributing to the ultimate objective of the convention of cost-efficient
emission reductions; as well as to assist parties included in Annex I in achieving compliance with their
quantified emission limitation and reduction commitments. The CDM is the most important framework for
the supply of carbon credits from emission reduction projects, which are approved, validated and
exchanged by the UNFCCC secretariat. CDM projects can be implemented in all non-Annex I countries, and
are certified by operational entities (OE) designated by UN COP (IPCC 2007). The CDM thus generates
credits, typically from electricity generation from biomass, renewable energy projects, or capture of CH4,
often a problem in the context of waste management, which can be sold in the regulatory or the voluntary
carbon markets. As such, it is a novel instrument to restructure islands towards low-carbon economies.
Discussions are already ongoing in the Caribbean of how to use the CDM in restructuring the energy system
(e.g. MEM 2009). It is worth noting, however, that emission reductions achieved through the CDM do not
apply to national economies, rather than the purchaser’s economy. While the CDM is thus an instrument to
achieve technological innovation, it is not an instrument to achieve carbon neutral status.
Further funds can be derived through voluntary payments by tourists. For instance, Dalton et al. (2008b)
found that 49% of Australian tourists were willing to pay extra for renewable energy systems, out of which
92% were willing to pay a premium corresponding to 1–5% above their usual costs. In another study,
Gössling and Schumacher (2010) found that 38.5% of a sample of international tourists in the Seychelles
expressed positive willingness to pay for carbon-neutrality of their accommodation, out of which 48%
stated they would be willing to pay a premium of at least €5 per night. While these values are not
representative, they nevertheless indicate that there is considerable potential to involve tourists
emotionally and financially in strategies to implement renewable energy schemes. Such options should be
further explored.
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5.3.
Agriculture and Food Security
5.3.1. Policy
Policy directives for agriculture outlined in The Bahamas National Policy for Adaptation to Climate Change
(2005) are guided by the predicted changes in rainfall patterns, loss of agricultural land and reduced
agricultural productivity from salinity that give rise to uncertainties in crop production and possibly
increased flooding. The policy states that to address the impacts of climate change on agriculture, the
Government of The Bahamas and partner agencies will:
1. conduct studies to assess the risks posed by Climate Change to the productivity of agricultural
crops and to food security; the expected impacts on the availability of water for agriculture; the
expected impacts of Climate Change on pest- and disease-crop interactions; and the expected
impacts of Climate Change on livestock production
2. develop a National Adaptation Strategy for Agriculture, both crops and livestock
3. incorporate the National Adaptation Strategy for Agriculture into the National Land Use
Management Plan
4. adopt appropriate adaptation measures that do not jeopardise or contradict the development of
long-term sustainable strategies for the agricultural sector
5. formulate and implement any other such strategies and measures which will help to enhance food
security and sustainable food production.
The UN Country Profile for The Bahamas (2002) observed that the Government’s strategy for the
agricultural sector has been the stimulation of the production of short-term crops and livestock to increase
farm incomes. Under this strategy, potatoes, onions and pigs have been targeted. Another objective for the
Ministry of Agriculture has been to diversify production to include medium-term crops and livestock, such
as bananas, papayas, pineapples and poultry, and encourage investment in long-term crops and livestock,
such as coconuts, avocados, mangos, sheep and goats.
During 2009 the consolidated Ministry of Agriculture and Marine Resources made progress in the
intensification of activities in support of national agriculture and rural life in the Family Islands. Producers
associations were formed which help farmers to capitalise on the Family Island Development
Encouragement Act. This is an incentive policy that enables the associations to benefit from duty free and
excise free tax on their imports of machinery, for land clearing and to reduce the cost of other input
supplies by bulk purchases. The Bahamas Agriculture Land Policy, which is discussed in The Bahamas
Agriculture Sectoral Plan (2009) is also designed to foster the long-term development and conservation of
national agriculture resources and increase the number of people engaged in agribusiness.
This policy shift and agricultural initiatives have resulted in an increase in the number of farmers and
entrepreneurs in the Family Islands participating in revitalising the sector as a means of strengthening food
security. The main goal of existing government policies that support agricultural development focuses on
the improvement of primary and value added outputs. These strategies, coupled with the climate change
policy for agriculture, should provide ample measure for climate change adaptation in The Bahamas.
5.3.2. Technology
The Rapid Assessment (2010) explains that financial constraints, as well as limited knowledge, prevent
many farmers in The Bahamas from making use of the modern technology available, which leads to low
107
production efficiency. Nevertheless, according to the IICA Annual Report (2010), the Ministry of Agriculture
and Marine Resources has intensified its activities at the Gladstone Road Agricultural Centre (GRAC) in
order to generate and validate technologies for producers. During 2009, the key activities undertaken to
accelerate the delivery of improved technologies were the embryo transfer of small ruminants to upgrade
local herds and the rapid multiplication of selected root crops. At the same time initiatives in on-farm
demonstration of improved pasture management started. Additionally, in collaboration with The Food and
Agricultural Organization (FAO) and the Caribbean Agricultural Research and Development Institute
(CARDI), a clean seed rapid multiplication and distribution system for root crops was introduced to Family
Islands in The Bahamas.
Dr. Selima Hauber, a local scientist, has also initiated a rapid multiplication enterprise with the aid of tissue
culture. This initiative has started to address urgent needs for large quantity of health planting material of
vegetatively propagated crops such as banana, pineapple and plantains. Dr. Hauber founded Bahamian
Botanicals, (established summer 2008), which is a micro-propagation laboratory offering liners to
nurserymen and farmers on a wholesale basis. Her micro-propagation enterprise involves the rapid
vegetative multiplication of plants in sterile containers on nutrient media, under controlled temperature
and light.
The amalgam of recent technological initiatives in the Bahamian agricultural sector is a positive step
towards improving adaptive capacity for climate change impacts. However, there is a need to promote the
adoption of appropriate technologies and agricultural practices at the farm level to ensure sustainable food
production systems in the wake of changing climatic conditions.
5.3.3. Farmers’ Adaptation - Initiatives and Actions
The Bahamas Agricultural and Industrial Corporation (BAIC) has embarked on a food processing and
preservation drive as a means of reducing crop waste and increasing value to locally grown produce. This is
a critical step towards food security and climate change adaptation especially in instances where farmers
are unable to transport produce to their target market on time or when their products do not meet the
required grade.
Eisenhart (2010) observes that some commercial and semi-commercial farmers in The Bahamas have large
hoop houses, a type of passive solar greenhouse that is effectively used to withstand the heavy rainfall
throughout the growing season, and which also allows for continuous planting and harvesting. Traditional
hoop houses are long, dome-shaped, and covered by a double-thick sheet of polycarbonate plastic.
Lucayan Tropical, a hydroponic greenhouse producer operates the only glasshouse in The Bahamas. The
glasshouse is built with galvanised steel and has an aluminum superstructure that was specially built to
withstand hurricane damage. This farm uses green technology; the water used for agricultural production is
captured through rain water off the roofs of their 7-acres of greenhouses and housed in large holding
tanks. Lucayan Tropical Produce also practices an intensive Integrated Pest Management (IPM) program
that uses beneficial insects to eliminate pests and stimulate healthy plant growth. Lucayan Tropical Produce
(2010) farming yields 20-30 times more product per acre than conventional field production utilising less
water per pound of produce because hydroponic farming techniques gives the farmer complete control
over those aspects of farming that are normally left up to nature in traditional farming:- rainfall, number of
hours of sunshine, pests and nutrients in the soil.
In 2003, a community based aquaponics project was launched in Eleuthera to test whether this form of
farming can become a viable means of alternative food production on the island. The Cape Eleuthera
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Foundation was developed to improve the capacity of land degraded by intensive growing practices and to
revive agriculture. This system, which uses freshwater from rainwater catchments to grow tilapia, salad
greens and culinary herbs, is a suitable climate change adaptation measure for Bahamas because it does
not depend on soil as a growth media, uses shade houses to protect the plants, and does not require
expensive fertilisers.
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5.4.
Human Health
5.4.1. Policy
PAHO (2007) has stated that one of the strong points of The Bahamas health care system is its “capacity for
the development of laws and regulations”. With direct reference to climate change, the country devised its
National Policy for Adaptation to Climate Change in 2005. One of its policy objectives has been to “avoid or
minimise the negative impacts of Climate Change on human health” (NCCC-BEST, 2005). To adapt to the
current vulnerabilities the policy has proposed the following:
1. Promote the necessary health related research and information gathering in order to strengthen
the basis for sound decision making;
2. Ensure that appropriate short-, medium and long-term measures to address health related climate
change issues are incorporated into national health plans;
3. Inform, sensitise and educate health personnel and the public-at-large about Climate Change
related health matters;
4. Ensure that, to the extent possible, preventative measures and resources for treatments, such as
vaccines and medications are available.
These are broad policy objectives and require follow up plans to address the myriad vulnerabilities that
exist in the health sector which could be impacted on by climate change. For instance, the reported
imported cases of malaria in the Caribbean, 15% were from The Bahamas (Rawlins et al., 2008). To address
this problem, the fourth action point is relevant. How these objectives can be accomplished is partially
outlined in the National Health System Strategic Plan 2010 – 2020.
The National Health System Strategic Plan 2010 – 2020 mentions climate change and the risk it places on
the health sector. The plan notes the importance of inter-sectoral co-operation and collaboration in the
protection of the Bahamian society against the risks of transmission of communicable diseases, the impacts
of climate change and the effects of disasters (natural and man-made) (MOH, 2010). It emphasises the
need to “strengthen national surveillance and response systems to detect, report and mitigate public
health risks, including new and emerging diseases, and the effects of climate change” and “strengthen the
capacity of national disaster management systems to effectively mitigate the impact of natural and other
disasters” (MOH, 2010).
The vulnerability of the well-being of Bahamians due to the impact that climate change may pose on the
agriculture sector and the potential consequences on food security were presented in the vulnerability
assessment. One focal area that should be considered with respect to this is the Agriculture Sectoral Plan
for The Bahamas (FAO, 2009b). The plan establishes the link between health, nutrition and education and
climate change. Through the Ministry of Agriculture and Marine Resources (MAMR), initiatives have been
undertaken to increase food security in The Bahamas. One of the initiatives which was described in the plan
was the inclusion of “garden based learning” in the curriculum at the primary school level. The scope of the
plan was beyond the student populous, seeking to encourage the participation of a range of stakeholders
which included “school administrators, teachers, parents, health workers, extension agents and community
leaders” on food security, education nutrition and the best methods of implementation. The plan also
mentioned the risks presented to workers, communities and consumers from contaminated foods (FAO,
2009b).
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The Bahamas relies heavily on tourism as its natural resources are limited, with approximately 50% of its
GDP being derived from this sector (BEST, 2001). The economy is also directly tied to that of the United
States of America due to the fact that around 85% of tourists to The Bahamas are Americans. The health
sector of The Bahamas is vulnerable to exogenous factors particularly related to world economics and
politics that affect larger countries such as the US. While the country has allocated sufficiently to health
care expenditure in the past (See Table 5.4.1 and Table 5.4.2) if the tourism flow to The Bahamas decreased
this could impact on all sectors of the economy including the health sector. This can be gleaned from Table
5.4.1 which showed spending in 1996 was higher than in 2007.
Table 5.4.1: Total expenditure on Health as a % of GDP between 1995 and 2005
Year
‘95
‘96
‘97
‘98
‘99
‘00
‘01
‘02
‘03
‘04
‘05
‘06
‘07
‘08
‘09
% of GDP
6.8
6.9
6.5
6.3
6.1
5.9
5.9
5.9
6.2
6.5
6.3
6.6
6.6
7.2
7.2
(Source: Taken from WHO, 2011)
Table 5.4.2: Summary of Capital Development Expenditure in the Ministry of Health and Public Hospitals Authority
2007 – 2011
Expenditure
(Provisional)
2007/2008 ($)
Expenditure
(Provisional)
2008/2009 ($)
Approved
Estimates
2009/2010 ($)
Estimates
2010/2011 ($)
Ministry of Health
3,504,530
1,732,869
2,010,000
1,230,000
Public Hospitals Authority
6,182,739
500,000
3,000,000
3,586,775
Ministry/Department
(Source: Ministry of Finance, 2011)
The Bahamas has incurred increased debt due to the current economic conditions and this is reflected in
expenditure from 2007/2008 compared to the estimates for 2010/2011 (Table 5.4.2).
5.4.2. Management
The Health Services of The Bahamas consists of four main components; the Ministry of Health, the
Department of Public Health, Public Hospitals Authority and the Private Sector. The Bahamas has 3 main
public institutions; the Princess Margaret Hospital in Nassau New (405 beds), the Rand Memorial Hospital
in Freeport Grand Bahama (86 beds) and the Sandilands Rehabilitation Centre –consisting of the Geriatric
Hospital and the Sandilands Hospital for the mentally and physically challenged in Nassau New Providence.
Dispersed throughout the chain of islands are 55 health centres and 59 satellite clinics and 286 privately
owned health care facilities (COB, 2005).
While The Bahamas has the prestige of having the third highest gross-domestic product (GDP) per capita in
the Western Hemisphere, the income distribution is uneven with populations varying from subsistence to
medium income to the very wealthy. In fact according to The Bahamas Living Conditions survey, 2001, the
inequality in The Bahamas is among the highest if not the highest in the Caribbean region (Bahamas
Department of Statistics, 2004). As a result of this overall high ranking, the country does not qualify for
certain types of international funding for rural areas and poorer communities. As a consequent,
considerable revenues must be expended to co-ordinate the affairs of the 700 odd islands that the country
is made up of (Cox et al., 2005).
The question of how to manage the significant number of immigrants in The Bahamas also exists. They
compound the problem of population density where the actual settlements numbers are not always up-to111
date (Jones, 2005). Such statistics impair the ability of the health authorities to properly prepare and
mitigate disease outbreaks and natural disasters and will make adaptation a greater challenge. Overall,
there are roughly two types of immigrants entering the country, the very poor seeking any basic
employment and a richer qualified middle-aged group coming to secure specialised positions in the job
market. “Poorer migrants have a tendency to increase demand on the country’s social services, including
government health facilities and schools. Wealthier migrants tend to utilise private facilities (health,
education, etc.), even though their consumer habits place additional demands on such public resources as
electric utilities and the telephone system” (PAHO, 2007).
Also relevant is the stream of tourists that come to the island, and have the potential to produce a
concentrated population pattern that could significantly tax the country’s health care delivery system
(PAHO, 2007). To adapt to climate change this will have to be addressed in any management plan devised
by The Bahamian government.
One of the weak points of the Healthcare Sector has been “an absence of formal evaluation processes and
the inefficient and ineffective utilisation of established institutional capacity and of management
information systems” (PAHO, 2007).
The Bahamas has sought to adapt to its solid waste management related problems by preparing a
comprehensive action plan to address the weak areas of some waste management across the islands. “It
involves a major expansion of the capacity of the sanitary landfill in New Providence through the
establishment of a new solid waste disposal facility on 40.5 ha (100 acres) of land adjacent to the former
landfill at Harrold Road. Sixteen sanitary landfills are also proposed for the following Family Islands: Abaco,
Andros, Bimini, Cat Island, Eleuthera, Great Exuma, Grand Bahama, Inagua, Long Island and San Salvador.
Some, such as those on Bimini and Long Island, have already been constructed” (Cox et al., 2005). Such
initiatives are key adaptation measures that can contribute to overall increases in sanitary conditions that
ultimately contributes to the well being of the society.
In terms of natural disasters, the following account demonstrates the ability of The Bahamas Health Sector
to cope. “Even before the hurricanes hit, the health disaster preparedness committees had been activated,
since March. After the announcements of hurricanes warnings and watches, the Department of Public
Health pre-positioned teams, the ministry of health and the three major hospitals activated command
centres to coordinate the appropriate response, all operated in conjunction with NEMA. The Pan American
Health Organization, through its local office, provided expert support. It all led to continuity of services
during the hurricanes, the successful evacuation of patients from three islands and response to 17
ambulance calls. In spite of light shortages and water unreliable supply (namely in Grand Bahama) in the
immediate aftermath, the public health sector weathered fairly well” (ECLAC, 2004).
The Bahamas experienced significant damage to infrastructure, medical supplies and equipment during
Hurricane Jeanne and Frances. Losses were also related to power outages, the stability of which is very
important in the health care sector. For example part of the vaccine supplies were lost due to no electricity
for several days (ECLAC, 2004). Table 5.4.3 shows some of the impacts on The Bahamas health sector after
Hurricanes Jeanne and Frances in 2004.
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Table 5.4.3: Summary of Cost of Impacts on The Bahamas Health Sector after Hurricanes Jeanne and Frances
($ ‘000)
Total
Damage to
infrastructure and
facilities
Drugs and medical
supplies (including
vaccines lost)
Special equipment for
disposal of debris
Health and mental
assistance campaigns
Environmental health
programme
Direct
damage
2,903
Indirect
impact
2,249
Total
5,153
External
component*
3,607
1,651
1,239
687
687
565
565
931
128
1,318
989
(Source: Taken from IDB, 2004; Original source: ECLAC)
*In this case it refers to required imports of equipment, medicines, chemicals, etc.
5.4.3. Summary
PAHO (2007) has stated that one of the strong points of The Bahamas health care system is its “capacity for
the development of laws and regulations”. In the health sector The Bahamas National Policy for Adaptation
to Climate Change 2005 seeks to (i) Promote the necessary health related research and information
gathering in order to strengthen the basis for sound decision making; (ii) Ensure that appropriate short-,
medium and long-term measures to address health related Climate Change issues are incorporated into
national health plans; (iii) Inform, sensitise and educate health personnel and the public-at-large about
Climate Change related health matters and (iv) Ensure that to the extent possible that preventative
measures and resources for treatments, such as vaccines and medications, are available.How these
objectives can be accomplished are partially outlined in the National Health System Strategic Plan 2010 –
2020. The Agriculture Sectoral Plan for the Bahamas 2009 establishes the link between health, nutrition
and education and climate change. Through the Ministry of Agriculture and Marine Resources (MAMR),
initiatives have been undertaken to increase food security in The Bahamas, for example, the plan includes
the initiation of “garden based learning” in the curriculum at the primary school level. The health sector of
The Bahamas is vulnerable to exogenous factors particularly related to world economics and politics that
affect larger countries such as the US. While the country has allocated sufficiently to health care
expenditure in the past, if the tourism flow to The Bahamas decreased this could impact on all sectors of
the economy including the health sector.
The Bahamas has the prestige of having the third highest gross-domestic product (GDP) per capita in the
Western Hemisphere. As a result of this overall high ranking, the country does not qualify for certain types
of international funding for rural areas and poorer communities. Further, considerable revenues must be
expended to co-ordinate the affairs of the 700 odd islands that the country is made up of (Cox et al., 2005).
The question of how to manage the significant number of immigrants in The Bahamas also exists. They
compound the problem of population density where actual settlement numbers are not always up-to-date
(Jones, 2005). Also relevant is the stream of tourists that come to the island, and have the potential to
produce a concentrated population pattern that could significantly tax the country’s health care delivery
system (PAHO, 2007). One of the weak points of the Healthcare Sector has been “an absence of formal
evaluation processes and the inefficient and ineffective utilization of established institutional capacity and
113
of management information systems” (PAHO, 2007). The Bahamas has sought to adapt to its solid waste
management-related problems by preparing a comprehensive action plan to address the weak areas of
some waste management across the islands. Such initiatives are key adaptation measures that can
contribute to overall increases in sanitary conditions that will ultimately contribute to the well-being of the
society.
114
5.5.
Marine and Terrestrial Biodiversity and Fisheries
Adaptation requires “adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic
stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities” (IPCC, 2007). The
adaptive capacity of ecosystems then is the property of a system to adjust its characteristics or behaviour,
in order to expand its coping range under existing climate variability, or future climate conditions (Brooks &
Adger, 2004). Despite global action to reduce greenhouse gases, climate change impacts on biodiversity are
unavoidable due to climate inertia. Natural ecosystems have long demonstrated the ability to adapt to
changes in their physical environment. The rate at which climatic change occurs may exceed the rate at
which ecosystems can adapt. Furthermore, natural environments that are already stressed by human
activities have compromised ability to cope with and to adapt to climate change. This adaptive capacity
assessment thus considers the country’s ability to conserve its biodiversity through managing sustainable
resource use and the capacity to implement strategies to protect its natural environment.
Many small island states generally have low adaptive capacity for some of the same reasons that they tend
to be highly vulnerable to climate change, i.e. small physical size, limited access to capital and technology,
shortage of human and financial resources (Mimura, et al., 2007). The ability of ecosystems to adjust to
projected climatic changes depends not only on their inherent resilience but also on the ability of resource
users to make required adjustments. By addressing shortcomings in the above indicators adaptive capacity
can be built.
Six principles for adaptation have been identified by Natural England, the UK government’s advisor on the
natural environment. Many elements of these principles are neither new nor climate-change specific and so
may be applied within the Caribbean context. The principles are as follows (not in order of priority):
Table 5.5.1: Biodiversity: Six Principles for Climate Change Adaptation
Conserve existing biodiversity
Reduce sources of harm not linked to climate
Develop ecologically resilient and varied landscapes
Establish ecological networks through habitat protection, restoration and creation
Make sound decisions based on analysis
Integrate adaptation and mitigation measures into conservation management,
planning and practice
5.5.1. Policy
The Bahamas has kept ahead in the Wider Caribbean Region with regards to its environmental legislation
(BEST, 2001). With regards to protecting its biodiversity the country has become party to a number of
International Environmental Agreements (Table 5.5.2) and has taken steps towards improving its capacity
to comply with these agreements. The Government of The Bahamas’ (GOB) commitment to the sustainable
use of the nation’s natural resources is also evident in the incorporation of plans for the protection and
enhancement of biodiversity into the national planning process. There are a number of plans and policies
which guide the management of the country’s biodiversity. The Bahamas has developed a National
Environmental Management Action Plan (NEMAP) to identify gaps in environmental management including
those shortcomings in its commitments to international agreements, and a National Environmental Policy
(draft) which aims to guide the use of resources sustainably so as to meet present and future needs.
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Table 5.5.2: International/regional agreements to which The Bahamas is party
Instrument
Status
Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change
Agreement for the Implementation of the Provisions of the United
Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea of 10 December 1982
relating to the Conservation and Management of Straddling Fish
Stocks and Highly Migratory Fish Stocks
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
Convention on Biological Diversity
Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety
Basel Convention on the Control of Transboundary Movements of
Hazardous Wastes and Their Disposal
16 March, 1998
Concluded :4 December, 1995
Enforced: 11 December, 2001
Concluded 9 May, 1992
Enforced 21 March, 1994
Concluded 5 June, 1992
Enforced 29 December, 1993
Concluded 29 January 2000
Enforced 29 January 2000
Concluded 22 March, 1989
Enforced 5 May, 1992
United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification
Concluded 14 October, 1994
Enforced: 26 December, 1996
Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, as
amended
Concluded 16 September, 1987
Enforced 1 January, 1989
Vienna Protocol for the Protection of the Ozone Layer
Concluded: 22 March 1985
Enforced 22 September, 2001
United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (LOS)
Concluded 10 December, 1982
Enforced 16 November, 1994
Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild
Flora and Fauna (CITES)
Concluded : 3 March, 1973
Enforced 1 July, 1975
Convention on Wetlands of International Importance Especially as
Waterfowl Habitat (Ramsar)
Concluded: 2 February, 1971
Enforced 21 December, 1975
(Source: BEST, 2003)
The GOB acknowledges that SLR, as a result of global warming, has potentially serious and far-reaching
impacts for biodiversity throughout the islands of The Bahamas (BEST, 1999). To this end, The Bahamas has
also developed a National Policy for the Adaptation to Climate Change (2005) that assesses the
vulnerability and adaptive capacity of the Commonwealth nation to various climate change impacts.
Commendably, the policies and recommended strategies of action take a sectoral approach and include
such sectors as tourism, coastal and marine resources and fisheries, and terrestrial biodiversity.
Very high priority is given by Government of The Bahamas to the expansion of tourism, especially in the
Family Islands. If negative impacts on ecosystems are to be avoided then tourism plans must include a
comprehensive EIA process and monitoring capability. Recognising this need the GOB has developed
Environmental Impact Assessment Regulations which specifically consider the impacts that developments
may have on coral reefs, mangroves, seagrass beds and beaches. However the Regulations do not consider
climate change impacts in the EIA process, nor have they yet been enacted. Furthermore, at times
Government approval is granted for development projects that cause ecological damage resulting in public
outcry and criticism of the EIA process for its lack of transparency.
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Table 5.5.3: Legislation on environmental protection in Bahamas
Act
Purpose
Water and Sewerage
Corporation Act (1976)
Provides regulatory framework for the management of water resources in The Bahamas
Environmental Health
Act 1987
Provides the framework for environmental regulations that will ensure compliance for the
Project. The Act authorises the DEHS to develop regulations that prevent and control air
pollution, soil contamination, and preserve water quality
Agriculture and
Fisheries Act 1964
Agriculture and Fisheries Departments provides guidelines for the development of the area.
The Minister of Agriculture and Fisheries may declare areas “protected.”
Fisheries Resources
(Jurisdiction and
Conservation) Act 1977
Provides for conservation of fisheries resources of The Bahamas. Establishes exclusive
fisheries zones and regulates harvesting of resources. The Act authorises protected areas
within exclusive fisheries zones, including land adjacent to it. Permission to fish within a
zone is required; permission may include conditions necessary to conserve the resource
Wild Animals
(Protection) Act 1968.
Prohibits the taking, capturing or hunting of any wild animal without a permit
Wild Birds Protection
Act 1952
Prohibits the taking, capturing or hunting of any wild bird without a permit. Protect birds
and eggs during closed season.
Plants Protection Act
1916
Relates to plant disease and controls importation of plants to prevent outbreaks of exotic
disease and establishment of unwanted species.
Protects physical landscape from environmental degradation, flooding and removal of hills;
regulates filling of wetlands, drainage basins or ponds; prohibits digging or removing sand
from beaches and sand dunes; prevents harvesting or removing protected trees. In order to
perform activities that may affect the physical landscape of The Bahamas, permits must be
obtained for these activities. The Department of Physical Planning issues the permits and
enforces the regulations (“Conservation and Protection of the Physical Landscape of The
Bahamas Regulations, 1997).
Directs The Bahamas National Trust to promote permanent preservation of lands,
buildings, underwater areas of beauty, and areas of natural interest. The Act also allows the
Trust to identify sites for protection, and to administer areas declared protected.
Conservation and
Protection of the
Physical Landscape of
The Bahamas
Act 1997
The Bahamas National
Trust Act 1959
5.5.2. Management
A nation’s adaptive capacity is greater if the roles and responsibilities for implementation of adaptation
strategies are well delineated by central governments and are clearly understood at national, regional, and
local levels (Burton, 1996). Responsibilities for environmental management in The Bahamas come under
the authority of various government ministries, agencies and NGOs. The Bahamas Environment, Science
and Technology (BEST) Commission, has been the lead environmental agency since 1995. Although the
Commission has no regulatory powers, it is responsible for developing management policies and ensuring
that international conventions are implemented. Whilst division of responsibilities among various agencies
may allow for institutions to attend to those issues within their areas of expertise, the combined
administration and monitoring of environmental resources also gives rise to duplication and fragmentation
of efforts. This is a particularly difficult challenge for the archipelago of over 700 islands where cost and
reliability of inter-island transportation constrains implementation and enforcement of regulations.
The various environmental management agencies share similar concerns and challenges. Lack of technical,
human and financial resources in Fisheries and Forestry Departments constrain their ability to gather
adequate data upon which decisions may and should be based. These same issues present a challenge with
regards to enforcement of regulations particularly in the marine and coastal areas due to the wide expanse
and open access nature of Bahamian waters. In its Third National Report to the CDB, the BEST Commission
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noted a lack of both technical and support personnel as the overriding obstacle to full implementation of
the Convention.
It would appear that because the natural environment is such a major part of The Bahamas’ tourism
product most Bahamians are generally aware of the need to protect these resources. Efforts to increase
environmental awareness and education in The Bahamas have been undertaken by various governmental
as well as non-governmental organisations including The Bahamas Reef Environment Education Foundation
(BREEF), Friends of the Environment and The Nature Conservancy (TNC). An Eco-tourism Unit and a
Sustainable Tourism Unit have been created within the Ministry of Tourism for the purpose of increasing
environmental awareness within the that sector.
While there is still room for improvement with regards to the engagement of stakeholders in
environmental management, The Bahamas has made and continues to make progress in public
participation on environmental issues. Starting in 2003 the GOB undertook a National Capacity Needs SelfAssessment (NCSA) to identify the country’s most critical needs for implementing MEAs, assess its capacity
to implement these agreements and to develop a National Environmental Policy and a National
Environmental Management and Action Plan. For the purpose of that survey the BEST Commission
identified all Bahamians as stakeholders and thus consulted a wide range of the public through meetings
and discussions.
5.5.3. Protected Areas
Protected areas are globally recognised as one of the cornerstones of conservation because they not only
protect key habitats and species but can also be a tool for sustainable development since they preserve
those natural resources that are vital to the socio-economic well-being of people (Dudley, 2008). The
Bahamas National Trust, a conservation NGO, views National Parks as one of the greatest legacies to be left
to future generations. The Trust has thus developed a system of National Parks encompassing over 700,
000 acres of marine and terrestrial habitats that includes no-take zones. The parks protect a variety of
habitats for birds, sea turtles and wetlands. The Bahamas were the first in the Caribbean to establish a notake zone and although the parks vary in level of regulation the country has enjoyed a comparatively good
measure of success with its MPAs. In 2003, The Bahamas National Parks were acknowledged by the World
Parks congress for the tangible benefits that some of the MPAs have brought to fisheries and tourism.
Under the Caribbean Challenge, The Bahamas has committed to conserve and manage 20% of its marine
environment by the year 2020 as no-take zones and to establish a network of marine protected areas
(Figure 5.5.1). Towards this goal, in 2009, The Bahamas government agreed to declare yet another 6 marine
reserves at least one of which will protect a newly discovered shark nursery. This brings the total area of
MPAs to 300, 000 acres.
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Figure 5.5.1: Map showing existing Marine Parks and Proposed Marine Reserve Areas
(Source: Department of Marine Resources, 2007)
5.5.4. Technology
A high degree of access to technology at various levels (i.e., from local to national) and in all sectors may
potentially play a significant role in biodiversity adaptation to climate change (Burton, 1996). Especially
with regards to information communication technology (ICT) the archipelago’s infrastructure provides a
good platform for biodiversity education and information sharing. The Bahamas National Geographic
Information Systems Centre (BNGIS) is the technical focal point for GIS in The Bahamas. The Centre, which
operates within the Ministry of Environment, has grown out of a series of GIS projects between 1990 and
2005 and has made progress to implement spatial data infrastructure library and a spatial applications
portal for harnessing data for emergency and land use planning and analysis. Remote sensing, satellite and
radar imagery are being incorporated into the BNGIS applications and are recognised by the Government as
essential tools for strategic planning to address potential threats to the marine and coastal environment
which has implications to tourism and the country’s economy. In an effort to improve transparency and
119
encourage information sharing and public awareness BNGIS is developing their website
(http://www.bahamas.gov.bs/bngisc) to allow the display of published maps from various government
agencies; however, no maps are currently available.
With such a significant portion of its territory being marine and coastal, The Bahamas has wisely given
much attention to preserving marine biodiversity. Some of its ongoing conservation strategies are
described below:

The Bahamas Biocomplexity Project is an interdisciplinary research effort that combines the study
of marine biodiversity, oceanography, and humans in order to improve the design of networks of
marine protected areas (MPAs) for biodiversity conservation, fisheries sustainability, and other
human uses. The project is an ongoing study which started in 2002 funded by the US National
Science Foundation (NSF) and headed by CBC Senior Conservation Scientist Dr. Dan Brumbaugh.

The Bahamas is also part of the Caribbean Carbon Neutral Tourism Project which aims to enhance
the climate resilience of the Caribbean region by devising ways of attracting new sources of
financing low-carbon tourism and reduce the sector’s vulnerability to climate change.

The Living Oceans Foundation GIS project, “Patterns of Biodiversity and Climate Change Impacts in
The Bahamas: Data to Support the Planning of Marine Reserves” has begun in support the
Bahamian government’s decision making process to select new areas for marine reserves in their
territorial waters, the Living Oceans Foundation is providing key data layers on biodiversity,
fisheries
habitat,
and
the
impacts
of
hurricanes
and
climate
change
(www.livingoceansfoundation.org).

The Bahamas National Trust has utilised the web-based social network, www.facebook.com, to
share information on local environmental issues such as beach erosion and species protection and
to encourage discussions on pertinent issues through the public online forum. The network site also
provides a means of advertising events such as the World Wetlands Family Fun Day, Lionfish
Control Project and the Pine Forest Walk.

Another communication strategy that The Bahamas is utilising is the radio soap opera that will
address climate change in the Caribbean. PCI-Media Impact along with the OECS and more than 25
partners have embarked on a regional program, My Island – My Community, to increase awareness
and encourage a change in behaviour among small island communities so as to build their capacity
to adapt to climate change.

The Disney Worldwide Conservation Fund, Disneynature, in collaboration with The Nature
Conservancy’s (TNC) Adopt a Coral Reef program, will help to establish new marine protected areas
through the proceeds from sales of eco-friendly “Save Planet Earth” reusable bags. The bags are
made from recycled bottles. Disneynature’s film, OCEANS, also contributed toward TNC’s
programme on behalf of everyone who saw the film.
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5.6.
Sea Level Rise Impacts on Coastal Infrastructure and Settlements
Based on the above evaluation, if action is not taken to protect the coastline of The Bahamas, the current
and projected vulnerabilities of the tourism sector to SLR, including coastal inundation and increased beach
erosion, will result in very significant economic losses for the country and its people. Adaptations to
minimise vulnerabilities in The Bahamas will require considerable revisions to development plans and
major investment decisions. These considerations must be based on the best available information
regarding the specific coastal infrastructure and ecosystem resources along the coast, in addition to the
resulting economic and non-market impacts.
There are three main types of adaptation policies that can be implemented to reduce the vulnerability of
the tourism sector in The Bahamas to SLR and improve the adaptive capacity of the country: (1) Hard
engineering defences and (2) soft engineering defences, which both aim to protect existing infrastructure
and the land on which the infrastructure is built, as well as (3) retreat policies, which aim to establish
setbacks and thereby move people and/or infrastructure away from risk. A summary of examples for each
of the three types of adaptation polices are provided in Table 5.6.1, along with a summary of select
advantages and disadvantages of each.
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Table 5.6.1: Summary of Adaptation Policies to reduce The Bahamas’ vulnerability to SLR and SLR-induced beach
erosion
Protection Type
Advantages
Dikes, levees,
1, 2
embankments
Groynes
3, 4
Revetments
Seawalls
3, 4
3, 5
Structure Redesign
(e.g. elevate buildings,
6, 7
enforce foundations)
Beach nourishment and
replanting of coastal
2, 3, 8
vegetation
Replant, restructure and
3, 8
reshape sand dunes
Relocate settlements and
2, 9,
relevant infrastructure
10, 11, 12
1
2
Disadvantages
Hard Engineering Defences
- Prevents inundation
- Aesthetically unpleasing
- Can be breeched if improperly designed
- Can create vulnerabilities in other locations (e.g. further
erosion downward from the dikes)
- Expensive
- Requires ongoing maintenance
- Prevents erosion
- Aesthetically unpleasing
- Can increase erosion in other locations (e.g. stops
longshore drift and traps sand)
- Expensive
- Prevents inundation
- Aesthetically unpleasing
- Less unwanted erosion
- Expensive
than seawalls or levees
- Requires ongoing maintenance and/or replacement
(temporary)
- Prevents inundation
- Aesthetically unpleasing
- Good for densely
- Can be breeched if improperly designed
developed areas that
- Can create vulnerabilities in other locations (e.g. further
cannot retreat
erosion adjacent from seawalls, reflect waves causing
turbulence and undercutting)
- Expensive
- Requires ongoing maintenance
- Scouring at the base of the seawall can cause beach loss
in front of the wall
- Less environmentally
- May be technologically unfeasible and expensive for
damaging compared to large
larger buildings and resorts
scale defenses
- Only protects the individual structure (not surrounding
- Can be completed
infrastructures such as roads)
independently of centralised
management plans
Soft Engineering Defences
- Enhances slope stability
- Can ruin visitor experience while nourishment is
- Reduces erosion
occurring (e.g. restrict beach access)
- Preserves natural beach
- Can lead to conflict between resorts
aesthetics
- Differential grain size causing differing rates of erosion
- Provides protection for
(e.g. new sand vs. natural sand)
structures behind beach
- Difficult to maintain (e.g. nourishment needs to be
- Improves biodiversity and
repeated/replenished, unsuccessful plantings)
ecological health
- Will not work on open coastlines (i.e. requires locations
where vegetation already exists)
- Enhances slope stability
- Conflict among resort managers (e.g, ‘sand wars’)
- Reduces erosion
- Temporary (waves will continually move sand)
Retreat Policies
- Guaranteed to reduce SLR
- Economic costs (e.g. relocation, compensation)
vulnerability
- Social concerns (e.g. property rights, land use, loss of
- Less environmental damage
heritage, displacement)
to coastline if no
- Coordination of implementation is challenging (e.g.
development takes place
timing of relocation is problematic)
- Retains aesthetic value
- Concerns with abandoned buildings
3
4
5
6
Silvester and Hsu, 1993; Nicholls and Mimura, 1998; French, 2001; El Raey et al., 1999; Krauss and McDougal, 1996; Boateng,
7
8
9
10
11
12
2008; Lasco et al. 2006; Hamm et al., 2002; Frankhauser, 1995; Orlove, 2005; Patel, 2005; Barnett, 2005
122
5.6.1. Technology – HARD Engineering
Hard engineering structures are manmade, such as dikes, levees, revetments and sea walls, which are used
to protect the land and related infrastructure from the sea. This is done to ensure that existing land uses,
such as tourism, continue to operate despite changes in the surface level of the sea. The capital investment
needed for engineered protection is expensive. For example, to protect the city of Nassau, US $176.7
million would be required to construct new levees, with an additional US $612.4 million to construct a new
35.91 km sea wall (Simpson et al., 2010). Unfortunately, the effectiveness of this approach may not
withstand the test of time nor withstand against extreme events. Protective infrastructure not only
requires expensive maintenance which can have long-term implications for sustainability, but adaptations
that are successful in one location may create further vulnerabilities in other locations (IPCC, 2007b). For
example, sea walls can be an effective form of flood protection from SLR, but scouring at the base of the
seawall can cause beach loss, a crucial tourism asset, at the front of the wall (Kraus and McDougall, 2006).
Moreover, hard engineering solutions are of particular concern for the tourism sector because even if the
structures do not cause beach loss, they are not aesthetically pleasing, diminishing visitor experience. It is
important for tourists that sight lines to the beach not only be clear, but that access to the beach is direct
and convenient (i.e., to not have to walk over or around a long protective barrier). Smaller scale hard
engineering adaptations offer an alternative solution to large scale protection. Options include redesigning
structures to elevate buildings and strengthen foundations to minimise the impact of flooding caused by
SLR.
5.6.2. Technology – SOFT Engineering
Protection can be implemented through the use of soft engineering methods which require naturally
formed materials to control and redirect erosion processes. For example, beaches, wetlands and dunes
have natural buffering capacity which can help reduce the adverse impacts of climate change (IPCC, 2007b).
Through beach nourishment and wetland renewal programmes, the natural resilience of these areas
against SLR impacts can be enhanced. Moreover, these adaptation approaches can simultaneously allow for
natural coastal features to migrate inland, thereby minimising the environmental impacts that can occur
with hard engineering protection. Replenishing, restoring, replanting and reshaping sand dunes can also
improve the protection of a coastal area, as well as maintain, and in some cases improve, the aesthetic
value of the site. Although less expensive and less environmentally damaging, soft engineering protection
is only temporary. For example, the ongoing maintenance required to upkeep sand dunes, such as sand
replenishment schemes, will create the periodic presence of sand moving equipment, subsequently
hindering visitor experience (e.g., eye and noise pollution, limit beach access). Conflicts can also arise
between resort managers resulting in ‘sand wars’, whereby sand taken to build up the beach at one given
resort may lead other resorts to ‘steal’ sand and place it on their own property.
5.6.3. Policy
Managed retreat is an adaptation measure that can be implemented to protect people and new
developments from SLR. Implementing setback policies and discouraging new developments in vulnerable
areas will allow for future losses to be reduced. Such an adaptation strategy raises important questions by
local stakeholders as to whether existing land uses, such as tourism, should remain or be relocated to
adjust to changing shorelines (e.g., inundation from SLR) (IPCC, 2007b). Adaptation through retreat can
have the benefit of saving on infrastructure defence costs (hard and soft engineering measures) while
retaining the aesthetic value of the coast, particularly in those areas that are uninhabited (i.e., little to no
123
infrastructure or populations along the coast). The availability of land to enable retreat is not always
possible, especially in highly developed areas where roads and infrastructures can impede setbacks or on
small islands where land resources are limited.
For many tourist destinations in The Bahamas, retreat is both difficult in terms of planning (and legally
challenging) and expensive to implement. Resorts and supporting tourism infrastructure are large capital
investments that cannot be easily uprooted to allow the sea to move inland. If the resorts cannot be
moved, then the alternative is to leave them damaged and eventually abandoned, degrading the aesthetics
of the destination coastline. It is important that the retreat policy be well organised, with plans that clearly
outline the land use changes and coordinate the retreat approach for all infrastructures within the affected
areas. Additional considerations of adaptation through retreat include loss of property, land, heritage, and
high compensation costs that will likely be required for those business and home owners that will need to
relocate. Priority should be placed on transferring property rights to lesser developed land, allowing for
setback changes to be established in preparation for SLR (IPCC, 2007b).
The Bahamas has defined the coastal zone as the country’s entire land mass to the offshore boundary of
the nation’s exclusive economic zone. Integrating climate change adaptation strategies into relevant
national policies and plans has been limited in The Bahamas. There is not yet a fully developed strategy for
ICZM, though the national government, in conjunction with the Inter-American Development Bank, are in
the process of developing an ICZM plan (Horsley & Sikirica 2001). There are several laws and regulations
that apply to specific sectoral issues within the coastal zone, but no unifying framework within which to
establish an ICZM plan. There are numerous institutions that exist within the government that will be
involved with coastal zone management including the Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Public Works and
Transport, Ministry of Health, The Port Authority, Ministry of Maritime Affairs, Ministry of Tourism, Direct
Councils and Town Committees, Town Planning Committee (Horsley & Sikirica 2001).
A variety of policy directives have been identified in the National Policy for the Adaptation to Climate
Change, though the Government of Bahamas is only beginning to establish the basis for a legislative,
regulatory and institutional framework for managing coastal development and protecting its natural
resources (NCCC-BEST, 2005). An Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) process exists, yet it is primarily
focused on foreign investment projects and is not readily accessible to all affected parties or stakeholders.
The government of The Bahamas needs to develop a coordinated EIA process for all new developments to
manage coastal development and protect the natural resources of The Bahamas.
124
5.7.
Comprehensive Natural Disaster Management
Adaptive capacity can be measured through examination of policies and plans implemented for the
management of hazards, as well as the actions taken following a disaster. Being able to reduce the impacts
of natural disasters on a small island nation is often difficult, especially when facing major hazard threats on
a regular basis. The post-disaster time period is a time when extra resources are needed to finance imports
of food, energy, and inputs for the agricultural and manufacturing sectors. As a result, efforts to build
resilience, or adaptive capacity, get put aside while immediate survival, shelter and health needs are
prioritised along with the remedy of hazardous living conditions.
5.7.1. Management of natural hazards and disasters
The disaster management system can be thought of as a cycle where preparedness, mitigation2 and
adaptation activities (disaster prevention) are the focus prior to a disaster impact. Following an impact the
management focus becomes response, recovery and reconstruction (disaster relief). These two parts of the
disaster management system work together and also impact the broader social, economic, ecological and
political (socio-ecological) system (see Figure 5.7.1).
Disaster
Prevention
System
Disaster
Relief
System
Socioecological
System
Figure 5.7.1: Relationship of the Disaster Management System and Society
5.7.2. Caribbean disaster management and climate change
As a region, the Caribbean has made coordinated efforts to prepare for and respond to disasters. The
Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency, CDEMA, (previously the Caribbean Disaster
Emergency Response Agency, CDERA) was created in 1991. CDEMA plays a leadership role in disaster
response, mitigation and information transfer within the region, operating the Regional Coordination
Centre during major disaster impacts in any of their 18 Participating States, while also generating useful
data and reports on hazards and climate change. The primary mechanism through which CDEMA has
influenced national and regional risk reduction activities is the Enhanced Comprehensive Disaster
Management (CDM) Strategy (CDEMA, 2010b). The primary purpose of CDM is to strengthen regional,
2
In the disaster management literature, ‘Mitigation’ refers to strategies that seek to minimise loss and facilitate recovery from
disaster. This is contrary to the climate change definition of mitigation, which refers to the reduction of GHG emissions.
125
national and community level capacity for mitigation, management, and coordinated response to natural
and technological hazards, and the effects of climate change (CDEMA, 2010).
This regional disaster management framework is designed to inform national level disaster planning and
activities but also takes into consideration potential climate change impacts in its resilience building
protocols. The four Priority Outcomes of the CDM framework are:
1.
2.
3.
4.
Institutional capacity building at national and regional levels;
Enhanced knowledge management;
Mainstreaming of disaster risk management into national and sector plans; and
Building community resilience.
These outcomes have been further broken down into outputs that assist in the measurement of progress
towards the full implementation of CDM at the national and community level and within sectors (see Table
5.7.1). The CDM Governance Mechanism is comprised of the CDM Coordination and Harmonization Council
and six (6) Sector Sub-Committees. These sectors include – Education, Health, Civil Society, Agriculture,
Tourism and Finance. These six sectors have been prioritised in the Enhanced CDM Strategy as the focus
during the period from 2007 to 2012. CDEMA facilitates the coordination of these committees (CDEMA,
2010).
To address disaster management in the Caribbean tourism sector, CDEMA, with the support of the InterAmerican Development Bank (IDB) and in collaboration with the Caribbean Tourism Organization (CTO),
CARICOM Regional Organization for Standards and Quality (CROSQ), and the University of the West Indies
(UWI) will be implementing a Regional Disaster Risk Management (DRM) Project for Sustainable Tourism
(The Regional Public Good) over the period of January 2007 to June 2010. The project aims to reduce the
Caribbean tourism sector’s vulnerability to natural hazards through the development of a ‘Regional DRM
Framework for Tourism’. Under the Framework, a ‘Regional DRM Strategy and Plan of Action’ will be
developed, with a fundamental component being the development of standardised methodologies for
hazard mapping, vulnerability assessment and economic valuation for risk assessment for the tourism
sector (CDERA 2007; CDERA 2008).
Finally, the link between CDM and climate change cannot be ignored. Projections for the region suggest
that more extreme temperatures and more intense rainfall in certain seasons could lead to a greater
number of hydro-meteorological disasters. Many of the hazards facing Caribbean countries already pose
threats to lives and livelihoods and climate-related events are regular occurrences. This has been
recognised with the mention of climate change in the CDM strategy. The CCCRA report will not only offer
improvements to the existing disaster management framework in the region, but will also offer pragmatic
strategies for action which will build resilience in the Caribbean to the predicted impacts from climate
change (see herein, sector reports on Climate Modelling,
126
Water Quality and Availability, Energy Supply and Distribution, Agriculture and Food Security, Human
health, Marine and Terrestrial Biodiversity and Fisheries, Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Impacts on Coastal
Infrastructure and Settlements, Comprehensive Natural Disaster Management, and Community Livelihoods,
Gender, Poverty and Development).
Table 5.7.1: Enhanced Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme Framework 2007-2012
GOAL
Regional Sustainable Development enhanced through Comprehensive Disaster Management
PURPOSE
‘To strengthen regional, national and community level capacity for mitigation, management, and coordinated
response to natural and technological hazards, and the effects of climate change.
OUTCOME 1:
OUTCOME 2:
OUTCOME 3:
OUTCOME 4:
Enhanced
institutional
support for CDM Program
implementation at national
and regional levels
An effective mechanism and
programme for management
of comprehensive disaster
management knowledge has
been established
Disaster Risk Management has
been
mainstreamed
at
national
levels
and
incorporated into key sectors
of
national
economies
(including tourism, health,
agriculture and nutrition)
Enhanced
community
resilience in CDERA states/
territories to mitigate and
respond to the adverse effects
of climate change and
disasters
OUTPUTS
OUTPUTS
OUTPUTS
OUTPUTS
1.1
National
Disaster
Organizations
are
strengthened for supporting
CDM implementation and a
CDM program is developed for
implementation
at
the
national level
2.1 Establishment of a
Regional
Disaster
Risk
Reduction Network to include
a Disaster Risk Reduction
Centre and other centres of
excellence for knowledge
acquisition
sharing
and
management in the region
3.1 CDM is recognized as the
roadmap
for
building
resilience and Decision-makers
in the public and private
sectors understand and take
action on Disaster Risk
Management
4.1 Preparedness, response
and
mitigation
capacity
(technical and managerial) is
enhanced
among
public,
private and civil sector entities
for local level management
and response
3.2 Disaster Risk Management
capacity enhanced for lead
sector agencies, National and
regional insurance entities,
and financial institutions
4.2 Improved coordination and
collaboration
between
community
disaster
organizations
and
other
research/data
partners
including climate change
entities
for
undertaking
comprehensive
disaster
management
1.2 CDERA CU is strengthened
and
restructured
for
effectively supporting the
adoption of CDM in member
countries
1.3
Governments
of
participating
states/
territories support CDM and
have integrated CDM into
national
policies
and
strategies
1.4
Donor
programming
integrates CDM into related
environmental,
climate
change
and
disaster
management programming in
the region.
1.5 Improved coordination at
national and regional levels
for disaster management
2.2 Infrastructure for factbased policy and decision
making
is
established
/strengthened
2.3 Improved under-standing
and local /community-based
knowledge sharing on priority
hazards
2.4 Existing educational and
training
materials
for
Comprehensive
Disaster
Management
are
standardized in the region.
2.5 A Strategy and curriculum
for building a culture of safety
is established in the region
3.3 Hazard information and
Disaster Risk Management is
integrated
into
sectoral
policies, laws, development
planning and operations, and
decision-making in tourism,
health,
agriculture
and
nutrition,
planning
and
infrastructure
3.4 Prevention, Mitigation,
Preparedness,
Response,
recovery and Rehabilitation
Procedures developed and
Implemented
in tourism,
health,
agriculture
and
nutrition,
planning
and
infrastructure
1.6
System
for
CDM
monitoring, evaluation and
reporting being built
4.3 Communities more aware
and
knowledgeable
on
disaster management and
related procedures including
safer building techniques
4.4 Standardized holistic and
gender-sensitive community
methodologies for natural and
anthropogenic
hazard
identification and mapping,
vulnerability
and
risk
assessments, and recovery
and rehabilitation procedures
developed and applied in
selected communities.
4.5 Early Warning Systems for
disaster
risk
reduction
enhanced at the community
and national levels
127
5.7.3. Bahamas disaster management system
It is well recognised that good governance is not only a matter of legislation, but also demands effective,
appropriate and flexible institutions as well as enforcement of regulatory frameworks and the political will
to balance competing interests (UNEP, 2007). Management of disasters and emergencies in Bahamas is
coordinated by the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) through their National Disaster Plan.
The purpose of the National Disaster Plan is “to establish a process and structure for the systematic,
coordinated and effective delivery of National assistance to address the consequences of any major
disaster or emergency” (Cuervo, et al., 2005). The NEMA has instituted this plan and is in charge of its
implementation.
National disaster management committee
In The Bahamas, disaster management is an interdisciplinary effort coordinated at the national level by
NEMA and at the working level by the Disaster Management Committee. Disaster management in The
Bahamas follows the US incident command system (ICS) where NEMA leads activities in all phases of
disaster management; planning, preparation, response and recovery (Shurland and de Jong, 2008). “The
Disaster Management Committee (DMC) meets monthly to discuss matters relating to disasters.
Committee members represent relevant Government Ministries and Departments, The Bahamas Red Cross
and The Salvation Army” (NEMA, 2005).
Members of the DMC include:
Royal Bahamas Police Force
Royal Bahamas Defence Force
Ministry of Health
Department of Environmental Health
Ministry of Tourism
Ministry of Social Services and Community
Development
Ministry of Transport and Aviation
Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Bahamas Customs
H. M. Prison
Bahamas Electricity Corporation
Water and Sewerage Corporation
Bahamas Telecommunication Corporation
Public Hospitals Authority
Airport Authority
Port Authority
Bahamas Red Cross
The Salvation Army
Department of Local Government
“The ESF [Emergency Support Function] format details the missions, policies, structures, and
responsibilities of each government ministry for coordinating resources and programmatic support to
NEMA and Family Island Administrators during incidents of national significance” (Hughey, 2008). The ESFs
are grouped into 13 categories according to the Comprehensive Emergency Management Plan (CEMP):
ESF 1 Transportation
ESF 2 Communication
ESF 3 Public Works & Engineering
ESF 4 International Assistance
ESF 5 Planning and Information
ESF 6 Shelter Services
ESF 7 Relief Supplies & Distribution
ESF 8 Health & Medical Services
ESF 9a Urban Search & Rescue
ESF 9b Marine Search & Rescue
ESF 10a Hazardous Material – Land
ESF 10b Hazardous Material – Marine
ESF 11 Food
ESF 12 Tourism
ESF 13 Volunteers
The Ministry of Tourism is the lead organisation for ESF-12 (Tourism) and as such is charged with the
responsibility for coordinating response actions and protocols for tourism businesses. NEMA still
communicates with the various committees via their Emergency Operations Centre (EOC) that is erected
128
whenever an event overwhelms the capabilities of local agencies. However, by using ESFs, each sector
should already have a plan of action for use during natural hazard events and disasters. The tourism sector
has developed a ‘Hazard Preparedness and Response Plan’ to give effect to its responsibility as ESF-12
leader (Shurland and de Jong, 2008). The challenge NEMA faces in having this highly response-oriented
approach is that vulnerabilities cannot be well managed before an event; rather the impacts are managed
after damages have already occurred. With better integration of the CDM Framework, NEMA and the ESF
format could transform into a more holistic management of natural hazards with more effective risk
reduction.
An evaluation by the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), as part of their funding approval process for
a Natural Risks Preventive Management Programme, identified a few weaknesses within the current NEMA
agency and within the country-wide emergency management activities. The areas of focus for the 2005
Natural Risks Preventive Management Programme were therefore designed to address these concerns. The
focus areas were: legal and institutional framework, communications, shelters, community preparedness, a
Country Risk Profile which would identify actions to reduce disaster risk (Cuervo, et al., 2005). This recent
funding has aimed to strengthen disaster resilience in The Bahamas while also improving land use planning
and coastal zone management. To achieve disaster resilience, the Natural Risks Preventive Management
Programme is expected to create a well-functioning disaster management system for The Bahamas
(Miglino, et al., 2003). In conjunction with this, a larger Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM)
project seeks to better regulate land use and coastal development projects. The Land Use Policy and
Administration Project (LUPAP), funded by the IDB, seeks to concurrently develop a general land use and
zoning strategy including sub-division and set-back regulations. Together these projects will also encourage
proper Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) for coastal tourism developments (Miglino, et al., 2003).
The IDB-funded Natural Risks Preventive Management Programme has been cancelled and as such the
progress towards the well-functioning emergency management system is unclear. The creation of the new
Disaster Preparedness and Response Act (2006) is a positive step, however, the Act cannot directly improve
all of the areas of weakness mentioned above.
5.7.4. Technology
Early Warning Systems (EWS) – An EWS is commonly used in conjunction with an evacuation plan in order
to guide at risk persons to safety and avoid losses of life from natural hazard events. The use of an EWS is
an effective communication tool only when the proper instrumentation for collection of the necessary
weather data is present (i.e. rain gauges, tidal gauges, weather stations etc.). For hurricanes and tropical
storms, the Meteorology Department has an early warning system linked to satellites that tracks and
records the progress of storm systems as they approach the islands (The Bahamas Meteorology
Department, 2011). Additionally, NEMA has also recently (March 2011) installed a Severe Weather Warning
Siren System to warn residents of an approaching severe weather system. A tornado on Grand Bahama in
2010 prompted the creation of this system (BIS, 2011a). The sirens will be installed across all of the islands
eventually, but was piloted in various communities across Grand Bahama and can be heard up to a mile
away (BIS, 2011a). This is a positive step towards better preparedness and through testing such as that
done in March 2011, all members of the community and disaster management officials can learn how best
to respond to these warnings.
Additionally, in preparation for disasters and in relation to natural hazards The Bahamas Reef and
Environment Education Foundation (BREEF) takes action within two units. The Control Unit deals with
flooding, mosquitoes, rodent movement, sewage monitoring, potable water testing, pests and seawalls
consolidation. The Investigation Unit monitors rainfall, flooding, moisture, mould and air quality. This
129
information can then be fed back into the Early Warning System (EWS) and can help inform evacuations.
The Ministry of Works checks, assesses and gives estimates to repair people’s residences as well as public
buildings and coordinates the placement of people in shelters when needed.
Finally, at a NEMA Knowledge Exchange Conference in 2010, The Bahamas National Geographic
Information Systems Centre (BNGIS) shared how they use technology for their role under ESF-5 (Planning
and Information). The vital role GIS can play in decision making throughout all phases of the disaster
management cycle was discussed and its links to other development processes was also examined (BNGIS,
2010). Efforts are being made to create an integrated map database of all types of infrastructure and the
location of communities, as well as the topography of the islands with a focus on natural hazard areas.
5.7.5. Policy
Disaster Management Act: Across the Caribbean policies to adapt to and manage climate change impacts
are becoming more common. The strong relationship between disasters and climate change create a policy
arena where both issues can be managed under similar governance mechanisms. In The Bahamas it was in
2005 that the Prime Minister proposed the review of disaster management legislation so as to minimise the
impact of major disaster and enable planning that would avert disasters (The Commonwealth of The
Bahamas, 2005a). The new legislation was planned to empower the Government and its disaster planners
to be able to force evacuations; identify vulnerable areas thus allowing planning and response resources to
be used in a less ad-hoc manner; and to enable better shelter management through the designation of
persons to specific shelters (The Commonwealth of The Bahamas, 2005a). The Government swiftly created
and approved the Disaster Preparedness and Response Act, 2006 and this more integrated and holistic
strategy involving all partners is expected to achieve better inter-agency cooperation thanks to more
detailed partner roles. CDEMA is also working with NEMA to develop a model plan that will strengthen the
country’s Relief Management Supplies Policy (BIS, 2006a).
Environmental Impacts and Development Planning: Although policies have been put into place to protect
against severe weather conditions, property buyers still want to buy within a close proximity to the
coastline. Building Codes do stipulate that buildings should be able to withstand the wind speeds
associated with a Category 5 Hurricane and buildings on the coast should not be built on top, or crossing
the high water mark of 75 feet away from the water (see the Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Impacts on
Coastal Infrastructure and Settlements section for further details about coastal zone management). As a
region, relevant groups are working hard toward the development and application of a Caribbean Building
Code or Building Standards using the International Code Council (ICC) codes as the primary base documents
with additional input from the Caribbean Uniform Building Code (CUBiC) and earlier assessments on wind
load and seismic considerations. The Code has already been prepared and the next step is for each of the
15 states involved to review the documents and prepare their own Caribbean Application Document (CAD).
This document will most likely be prepared by specialists who will determine how the regional code should
be applied given each country’s own peculiarities, for example some countries will focus more heavily on
flooding and less on seismic considerations. The CAD will then be reviewed by all of the relevant
stakeholders on the National Stakeholder Subcommittee who will provide comments before it is submitted
to CARICOM. (Jonathan Platt, Barbados National Standards Institute, personal communication, May 4,
2011).
Bahamas Environmental, Science and Technology Commission (BEST) is a commission created from
representatives from various ministries and is envisioned as an entity that could evolve into the
environmental authority for The Bahamas. The evolution has not yet been realised and BEST has not able to
130
reach a set of permanent staff members (Miglino, et al., 2003). Instead BEST has become the primary
agency in charge of Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs). There are no specific criteria that trigger an
EIA, however the BEST Commission has a set of Resort Development Guidelines that proponents are often
asked to use as guidance for their development (CDB and CARICOM, 2004). Foreign firms are allowed to
conduct EIA provided they meet some basic criteria, as well as possessing the required work permits and
licensing documents (CDB and CARICOM, 2004). Additional EIA Guidelines are in development for various
sectors including: Housing Developments, Marinas and Ports, Agriculture Developments and Operations,
Industrial Operations, Energy Industries, Manufacturing, Extractive Processing, Development in Sensitive
Areas, and Aquaculture and Mariculture Developments (CBD and CARICOM, 2004). Sensitive areas are
defined as mangrove areas, aquifer recharge areas, coral reef areas, freshwater wetlands and steep slope
upland areas (SENES Consulting Inc, 2005). Other draft guidelines are designed to be exhaustive and assist
proponents and other stakeholders in preparation for an EIA, but ultimately it is the proponent’s
responsibility to ensure all relevant environmental issues are addressed in their EIA (SENES Consulting Inc,
2005).
Catastrophe Insurance Coverage: Re-insurance within the Caribbean region has generally been provided by
international insurance companies. However, the classification of the region as a catastrophe zone, thus
being high risk, means that insurance premiums remain very high for those who seek insurance. The
Caribbean is home to the first risk pooling facility designed to limit financial impacts of catastrophic
hurricanes and earthquakes in Caribbean member countries, by providing short-term liquidity when the
policy is triggered (CCRIF, 2011). Originally, the insurance index was based on degree of shaking during
earthquakes or wind speed for hurricane events and the member country would qualify for a pay-out based
on their policy and the level of damages deemed to be associated with either wind or shaking. Recently, the
need to also consider water damages has been noted. As a result, the CCRIF has continued to make
progress on an ‘Excess Rainfall product’ which is anticipated for the beginning of the 2011-2012 policy year
starting on June 1, 2011 (CCRIF, 2011). This would mean that countries would qualify for pay-out to cover
damages associated with flooding and heavy rains, whether associated with hurricanes/tropical storms or
not.
131
5.8.
Community Livelihoods, Gender, Poverty and Development
5.8.1. Household Surveys
The mapping exercise undertaken by community members at a participatory workshop provided guidance
on which geographic areas should be sampled for adaptive capacity. These included those areas where
livelihood activities are vulnerable to biophysical impacts of climate change, and poor/depressed areas.
As a result of various constraints, a small sample size was used. Whilst this may not be statistically
significant in large communities, the analysis provides clear insight into issues and challenges of the
community as a whole. A total of twenty-five respondents were surveyed, nine (36%) of whom were male
and sixteen (64%) female.
5.8.2. Demographic Profile of Respondents
Residency in the Parish
Just over half of all respondents (N = 13 / 52%) indicated that they had lived in their respective community
in Abaco for a minimum of 10 years. Of interest, and not dissimilar to patterns observed in other research
sites, female respondents recorded longer periods of residency, with 75% (N = 12 / 15: 75%) of all female
respondents indicating that they had lived in the community for at least 10 years, compared to 11% of male
respondents who had lived in the Parish for a for a similar period.
Table 5.8.1: Length of Residency in Parish / Community
Residency
Less than one year
1 - 5 years
6 - 10 years
11 - 15 years
16 - 20 years
21 - 25 years
Male
2
4
2
0
1
0
Female
22.22%
44.44%
22.22%
0.00%
11.11%
0.00%
1
3
0
1
2
9
6.25%
18.75%
0.00%
6.25%
12.50%
56.25%
Sample
3
7
2
1
3
9
12.00%
28.00%
8.00%
4.00%
12.00%
36.00%
Age Distribution
The population sampled was an extremely youthful one with only one respondent (N = 1 / 4%) recording
her age as over 60 years. Of interest, female headed households have a larger proportion of younger; as
well as older respondents than male headed households, which could be indicative of the increased burden
of care placed on female household heads. This burden would need to be taken into consideration in any
disaster management strategy.
132
Table 5.8.2: Age Distribution of Sample by Sex of Head of Household, N Values
Age of Respondent
Under 25
25 - 34
35 - 44
45 - 54
55 - 59
Over 60
Male
0
0
0
0
0
Female Headed
Female
Total
1
1
4
4
3
3
2
2
3
3
1
1
Male
Male Headed
Female
Total
4
4
0
1
4
5
Sample
1
8
8
2
3
1
Table 5.8.3: Age Distribution of Sample by Sex of Head of Household, %Values
Age of Respondent
Under 25
25 - 34
35 - 44
45 - 54
55 - 59
Over 60
Female Headed
Male
Female
Total
7.14%
7.14%
28.57%
28.57%
21.43%
21.43%
14.29%
14.29%
21.43%
21.43%
7.14%
7.14%
Male
0.00%
50.00%
50.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
Male Headed
Female
0.00%
0.00%
100.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
Total
Total
0.00%
44.44%
55.56%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
4.35%
34.78%
34.78%
8.70%
13.04%
4.35%
5.8.3. Household Form and Structure
Predominantly, respondents indicated that they were married (N 13 = / 52%). This was moreso the case
for female respondents, 56% of whom indicated they were married; compared to 44% of male respondents
who indicated the same relationship status. Of interest, a larger proportion of women were either
separated or divorced, Table 5.8.4.
Table 5.8.4: Relationship Status of Respondents
Status
Single
Single (Visiting Relationship)
Married
Separated
Other/Common Law
Divorced
Male
3
1
4
1
0
0
Female
33.33%
11.11%
44.44%
11.11%
0.00%
0.00%
133
2
1
9
2
1
1
12.50%
6.25%
56.25%
12.50%
6.25%
6.25%
Sample
5
2
13
3
1
1
20.00%
8.00%
52.00%
12.00%
4.00%
4.00%
60.00%
50.00%
40.00%
30.00%
20.00%
10.00%
0.00%
Single
Single (Visiting
Relationship)
Married
Separated
Other/Common
Law
Divorced
Male
33.33%
11.11%
44.44%
11.11%
0.00%
0.00%
Female
12.50%
6.25%
56.25%
12.50%
6.25%
6.25%
Sample
20.00%
8.00%
52.00%
12.00%
4.00%
4.00%
Figure 5.8.1: Relationship Status of Respondents
Household Headship
More than half of the respondents sampled listed themselves as the heads of their respective households
(N=14 / 56%). Of interest, more male respondents (N=8 / 89%) than female respondents (N = 6 / 37.5%)
indicated that they were considered the head of their households.
Table 5.8.5: Perception of Head ship of Household
Perceived as Head of
Household
Yes
No
Male
8
1
Female
88.89%
11.11%
6
10
Sample
37.50%
62.50%
14
11
56.00%
44.00%
With regards to household size, eighty-seven (N = 20 / 86.95%) of respondents indicated that they lived in
households less than five persons. Of note, slightly more male respondents (N = 4 / 44% of males) than
female respondents (N = 3 / 21.43% of females) indicated that they were the only members of their
households.
Table 5.8.6: Family Size by Sex of Head of Household
Size of Household
Headship of Household
Male
SAMPLE
Female
Single-person household
4
44.44%
3
21.43%
7
30.43%
2 - 4 persons
5
55.56%
8
57.14%
13
56.52%
5 - 6 persons
0
0.00%
1
7.14%
1
4.35%
7 - 8 persons
0
0.00%
2
14.29%
2
8.70%
Of interest, respondents indicated that females tended to head larger households, with all households with
more than four persons being headed by females.
134
Education and Livelihoods
The largest proportion of the sample (N=16 / 70%) indicated that they had completed up to a secondary
level of education. Of note, is that while 85.71% of female respondents indicated that they had completed
a secondary education, this was the case for only 44.44% of male respondents.
However, despite higher rates of completion of secondary level education for female respondents, male
respondents (N = 4 / 44%) completed Community college, or tertiary education at more than three times
the rate of female respondents (N = 2 / 14%).
Also of note, though not surprising given the widely accepted perception of technical areas as the purview
of males, no female respondents indicated having completed education at a Tech-Voc institute.
Table 5.8.7: Sample Distribution by Education and Training
Highest Level of Education
Secondary
Community College
Technical-Vocational Institute
Tertiary
Male
4
3
1
1
44.44%
33.33%
11.11%
11.11%
Female
12
1
0
1
Sample
85.71%
7.14%
0.00%
7.14%
16
4
1
2
69.57%
17.39%
4.35%
8.70%
Consistent with higher levels of education, male respondents indicated that their average monthly incomes
exceeded that of female respondents. In fact, all males sampled recorded earning in excess of USD 1,500
per month, while this was only the case for 31% (N = 4) of females sampled (See Table 5.8.8 and Figure
5.8.2).
Table 5.8.8: Sample Distribution by Average Monthly Earnings, N Values
Average Income
Less than US $500
US $500 – US $750
US $751 – US $1000
US $1001 – US $1250
US $1250 – US $1500
More than US $1500
Headship of Household
Male – Headed
Female – Headed
Male
Female
Male
Female
1
3
1
2
0
1
1
7
0
4
SAMPLE
Male
0
0
0
0
0
7
Female
1
3
1
2
2
4
Total
1
3
1
2
2
11
Table 5.8.9: Sample Distribution by Average Monthly Earnings, % Values
Average Income
Less than US $500
US $500 – US $750
US $751 – US $1000
US $1001 – US $1250
US $1250 – US $1500
More than US $1500
Headship of Household
Male - Headed
Female - Headed
Male
Female
Male
Female
0.00%
0.00%
8.33%
0.00%
0.00%
25.00%
0.00%
0.00%
8.33%
0.00%
0.00%
16.67%
0.00%
100.00%
8.33%
100.00%
0.00%
33.33%
135
SAMPLE
Male
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
100.00%
Female
7.69%
23.08%
7.69%
15.38%
15.38%
30.77%
Total
5.00%
15.00%
5.00%
10.00%
10.00%
55.00%
100.00%
90.00%
80.00%
70.00%
60.00%
50.00%
40.00%
30.00%
20.00%
10.00%
0.00%
Less than USD500
UDF 500 - USD
750
USD 751 - USD
1000
USD 1001 - USD
1250
USD 1250 - USD
1500
More than USD
1500
Male
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
100.00%
Female
7.69%
23.08%
7.69%
15.38%
15.38%
30.77%
Total
5.00%
15.00%
5.00%
10.00%
10.00%
55.00%
Figure 5.8.2: Sample Distribution by Average Monthly Earnings
Surprisingly, given the importance of Tourism to the Abaco community, respondents indicated that their
primary income was derived from sources other than tourism.
Table 5.8.10: Labour Market Participation: Involvement in Tourism Sector
Involvement
Male
Female
Sample
Yes
4
44%
9
82%
14
67%
No
5
56%
2
18%
7
33%
However, when asked directly about the kind of work in which they were engaged, 65% (N = 13) of all
respondents indicated that they were in fact engaged in some tourism-related activity.
It could be that respondents considered only some specific jobs in relation to tourism. It is of note,
however that 82% (N = 9) of female respondents (compared with 44% [N=4] of male respondents) were
employed within the Tourist industry and therefore would be vulnerable to shocks, both economic and
environmental that could result in a downturn in the sector. Given the vulnerability of the Tourism sector
to climate related events, it is apparent that more women than men will be at risk of having their
livelihoods compromised, should such an event take place in the community.
136
Table 5.8.11: Labour Market Participation: Involvement in Tourism AND Non-Tourism Sectors
NON-TOURISM
TOURISM
Industry
OTHER
Job
Male
Female
Total
Tour Operator
1
11.11%
0
0.00%
1
4.17%
Hotel Worker
0
0.00%
2
13.33%
2
8.33%
Restaurant Worker
1
11.11%
4
26.67%
5
20.83%
Craft seller or Vendor
0
0.00%
1
6.67%
1
4.17%
Informal Tour Guide
2
22.22%
0
0.00%
2
8.33%
Privately owned business
0
0.00%
2
13.33%
2
8.33%
Domestic Worker
0
0.00%
1
6.67%
1
4.17%
Mechanical / Technical
1
11.11%
0
0.00%
1
4.17%
Retail sales and services
1
11.11%
0
0.00%
1
4.17%
Government Worker
1
11.11%
0
0.00%
1
4.17%
Self employed
2
22.22%
1
6.67%
3
12.50%
Not reported / Unemployed
0
0.00%
4
26.67%
4
16.67%
Of interest, while all male respondents indicated that they were involved in income generating activity, 27%
(N=4) of female respondents reported being unemployed at the time of the survey.
Table 5.8.12: Sample Distribution by Involvement in Income Generating Activity
Involvement
in IGA
Yes
No
Male
9
0
100 %
0%
Female
11
4
73%
27%
Similarly, while all male respondents indicated that they were involved in income generating activities, this
was only the case of 73% (N = 11) of female respondents. Also of note, while 78% (N = 7) of male
respondents indicated that they were the primary income earner for their households, only 37.5% (N = 6)
of female respondents indicated that they had a similar responsibility. This could be indicative of the
gendered expectations of men as breadwinners in their households.
137
100.00%
90.00%
80.00%
70.00%
60.00%
50.00%
40.00%
30.00%
20.00%
10.00%
0.00%
Male
Female
Income Generation
100.00%
66.67%
Income Earner
77.78%
37.50%
Figure 5.8.3: Household Income Generating Activity
When one considers the disparities in levels of education between male and female respondents an
interesting pattern emerges: it appears that female respondents assume responsibility as their households’
main income earners on salaries based on lower levels of education, and presumably corresponding lower
salaries, than men.
Two thirds of female respondents (66% / N = 4) who indicated that they were primarily responsible for their
family’s income completed only up to secondary education, compared to 57% (N = 4) of male respondents
who had similar levels of education and were responsible to their households as the main income earner.
Conversely, while only 33% of female respondents provided for their families having received tertiary
education, this was the case for 43% of male respondents.
138
70.00%
60.00%
50.00%
40.00%
30.00%
20.00%
10.00%
0.00%
Male
Female
Secondary
57.14%
66.67%
College and Tertiary
42.86%
33.33%
Figure 5.8.4: Sample Distribution by Financial Responsibility for Household
Given the patterns of the ways in which female respondents’ income is used, it bears noting that despite
lower levels of education and presumably lower rates of remuneration, female-headed households were
responsible to a much greater extent to offer financial support to other households than were male-headed
households.
While 42% of female-headed households offered financial support to other households, this was only so for
22% of male-headed households
139
80.00%
70.00%
60.00%
50.00%
40.00%
30.00%
20.00%
10.00%
0.00%
Yes
No
Yes
No
Receive Support
Give Support
Male Headed
22.22%
77.78%
22.22%
77.78%
Female Headed
23.08%
76.92%
41.67%
58.33%
Figure 5.8.5: Sample Distribution by Financial Responsibility for Household
The pattern could suggest two things:
 A better developed support system and systems of social capital among female headed households,
which could be critical in the aftermath of a climate related disaster.
 An additional burden of care placed on females and members of their household as females fulfil
their roles in the care economy. In this way, critical resources for potential use in the development
of adaptation strategies may have to be used to support others.
5.8.4. Security and Social Protection
Food Security
The strains under which female headed households seems to operate in comparison to male headed
households was also evident, in relation to the food security of the respective households.
Overwhelmingly respondents (92%) indicated that their food supply was procured from grocery stores or
super markets. Additional sources of food included Community Shops (4%) and Traditional Markets (4%).
Of note, though not surprisingly, given the income levels of female headed homes, while all respondents
from male-headed households procured their food supply from groceries and supermarkets, 6.25% (N = 1)
of respondents from female-headed households procured their food supply from traditional markets and
community shops, respectively, which tend to be less expensive.
140
Table 5.8.13: Source of Food Supply
Source of Food Supply
Sample
Male Headed
Female
Total
0.00%
88.89% 11.11% 100.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
Male
Grown by Family
Grocery store / Super market
Open air / Traditional market
Community
Barter
0.00%
92.00%
4.00%
4.00%
0.00%
Male
Female Headed
Female
Total
0.00%
0.00%
87.50% 87.50%
6.25%
6.25%
6.25%
6.25%
0.00%
0.00%
Also of note, when asked about the adequacy of the household food supply, while the sample
overwhelmingly (N = 21 / 91%) indicated an adequate supply throughout the year, this was less so in the
case of respondents from female-headed households. Whereas all respondents from male headed
households indicated an adequate supply of food throughout the year, 14% of respondents from femaleheaded households noted that food was not adequate throughout the year.
Table 5.8.14: Adequacy of Food Supply
Adequacy of
Food Supply
Yes
No
Sample
21
2
91.30%
8.70%
Male Headed
Male
Female
8 88.89%
1
11.11%
0
0
9
0
Total
100%
0%
Male
Female Headed
Female
Total
12 85.71% 12 85.71%
2
14.29% 2 14.29%
As expected, reasons for inadequacy of food were mainly financial ones. As one respondent noted there is
a “lack of finances to buy needed food at times”
Respondents indicated that in the instance a credit facility was sought, it was - in the main – from
Commercial Banks. When examined on the basis of sex, similar patterns to those observed in the LGPD
work completed in Barbados and Jamaica were seen: more than 50% of all female respondents accessing
credit did so from informal source, while no male respondents accessing credit did so from informal source.
To the contrary, 75% of all male respondents accessing credit did so from Commercial Banks. The recurring
trend seems to be indicative of a preference for community schemes on the part of women, as well as
could signal barriers to accessing formal forms of credit for women, which may not exist in the same way
for men.
Table 5.8.15: Sample Distribution by Access to Credit
Loan Facility
TOTAL SAMPLE
Male Headed
Female Headed
Commercial Bank Loan
42.86%
75.00%
35.29%
Credit Union Loan
14.29%
25.00%
11.76%
Sou Sou / Meeting Turn / Partner
19.05%
0.00%
23.53%
Other
23.81%
0.00%
29.41%
Disparities in financial wherewithal were also seen in regards to respondents’ perceptions’ of financial
solvency. The largest proportion of respondents believed that in the instance they were to lose their jobs or
experience some natural disaster, their financial reserves would last between four and six months.
141
Don't know
More than a year
10 - 12 months
4 - 6 months
1 - 3 months
Less than 1 month
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
Less than 1 month
1 - 3 months
4 - 6 months
10 - 12 months
More than a year
Don't know
Natural Disaster
21.74%
17.39%
30.43%
0.00%
13.04%
13.04%
Job Loss
23.81%
14.29%
33.33%
4.76%
14.29%
9.52%
Figure 5.8.6: Financial Security: Job Loss or Natural Disaster
More specifically: in relation to Natural Disaster, respondents from female headed households indicated far
shorter periods of financial coverage than respondents in male headed households. While 22% of
respondents from male headed households indicated an ability to survive for more than a year in the
instance of a natural disaster, this was the case for only 7% of respondents of female headed households.
Table 5.8.16: Sample Distribution by Financial Security: Natural Disaster
Financial
Reserve
Less than 1
month
1 - 3 months
4 - 6 months
7 - 9 months
10 - 12 months
More than a
year
Don't know
Male
1
12.5%
2
3
25.0%
37.5%
-
2
25.0%
0.0%
Male Headed
Female
1
Total
Male
Female Headed
Female
Total
Sample
-
1
11.11%
0
4 28.57%
4
28.57%
5
21.74%
100%
-
3
3
33.33%
33.33%
-
0
0
1 7.14%
4 28.57%
0.00%
3 21.43%
1
4
3
7.14%
28.57%
0.00%
21.43%
4
7
0
3
17.39%
30.43%
0.00%
13.04%
-
2
22.22%
0
1
7.14%
1
7.14%
3
13.04%
1
7.14%
7.14%
1
4.35%
0.00%
Conversely, respondents from female headed households indicated longer periods of financial coverage
than respondents in male headed households, in the instance of job loss.
Ninety percent of respondents from male headed households (N = 8/ 89.9%) indicated that they would be
able to survive for less than six months in the instance of job loss, compared to 58% (N = 7) of respondents
in female headed households.
However, while 11% of respondents from male-headed households indicated that they would be able to
survive for over a year; this was only the case for 8.33% of respondents from female-headed households
(See Table 5.8.17).
142
Table 5.8.17: Sample Distribution by Financial Security: Job Loss
Financial
Reserve
Less than 1
month
1 - 3 months
4 - 6 months
Male
1
(12.50%)
3
(37.50%)
3
(37.50%)
Male Headed
Female
Male
1
(100.0%)
Total
1
(11.11%)
3
(33.33%)
4
(44.44%)
-
-
7 - 9 months
-
-
-
-
10 - 12 months
-
-
-
-
More than a
year
1
(12.50%)
-
1
(11.11%)
-
Don't know
0.00%
-
-
-
Female Headed
Female
Total
4
4
(33.33%)
(33.33%)
Sample
-
-
3
(25.00%)
1
(8.33%)
3
(25.00%)
1
(8.33%)
3
(25.00%)
1
(8.33%)
3
(25.00%)
1
(8.33%)
5
(23.81%)
3
(14.29%)
7
(33.33%)
1
(4.76%)
3
(14.29%)
2
(9.52%)
-
-
-
Similar to trends observed in other territories under investigation, respondents generally had little social
protection, with just over half of all respondents (N=13 / 52%) having health insurance and less than one
fifth of respondents (N = 4 / 16%) in possession of a private pension savings plan.
Home insurance, which covered climate related events, was particularly low with protection against Fire
being the most subscribed (N = 7 / 28%)
Some interesting patterns were observed, when examined on the basis of household structure:
 Despite low subscription to private pension savings plans, respondents from male headed
households were almost five times as likely to have such a plan than respondents from female
headed households, only 7% of whom indicated that they had such plans
 A similar situation existed in relation to government pension where all respondents from male
headed households were entitled to government pensions, compared to 64.29% of female
respondents who were similarly entitled
 Respondents from male headed households were also better protected in relation to Flood and
Storm Surge insurance than were respondents from female headed households.
Table 5.8.18, provides additional details:
Table 5.8.18: Sample Distribution by Social Protection Provisions
Financial
Provision
Health Insurance
Private Pension
Savings
Government
Pension
Home Insurance Hurricane
Home Insurance Flooding
Home Insurance Storm Surge
Home Insurance Fire
Sample
13
4
52.00%
16.00%
Male Headed
Male
Female
Total
5 62.50%
0.0%
5 55.56%
3 37.50%
0.0%
3 33.33%
18
72.00%
8
100.00%
6
24.00%
2
5
20.00%
5
7
1
Male
Female Headed
Female
Total
8 57.14% 8 57.14%
1
7.14% 1 7.14%
100.0%
9
100.00%
9
64.29%
9
64.29%
25.00%
0.0%
2
22.22%
4
28.57%
4
28.57%
2
25.00%
0.00%
2
22.22%
3
21.43%
3
21.43%
20.00%
2
25.00%
0.00%
2
22.22%
3
21.43%
3
21.43%
28.00%
2
25.00%
0.00%
2
22.22%
5
35.71%
5
35.71%
143
5.8.5. Asset Base
Of interest, despite relatively high ownership of land (80% of all respondents) house ownership was not
particularly high (64%). Of particular interest was the fact that despite other financial / monetary indicators
placing male headed households ahead of female headed households, larger proportions of respondents in
female headed households both owned houses and land, than did respondents in male headed households,
as detailed in Table 5.8.19:
Table 5.8.19: Sample Distribution by Ownership of Assets: Capital Assets
Asset /
Amenity
Male Headed
Male
Female Headed
Female
Total
Male
Female
Sample
Total
House
4
50.00%
0
0.00%
4
44.44%
12
85.71%
12
85.71%
16
64.00%
Land
6
75.00%
1
100.00%
7
77.78%
13
92.86%
13
92.86%
20
80.00%
5
62.50%
1
100.00%
6
66.67%
0.00%
0
0.00%
6
24.00%
3
37.50%
0
0.00%
3
33.33%
35.71%
5
35.71%
8
32.00%
Commercial
Vehicles
Private
business
5
On the other hand, despite higher levels of ownership both of houses and land by respondents from female
headed households, respondents from such households were more likely to live in wooden or mud houses
(64%) than respondents from male headed households, none of whom lived in homes made of mud.
Table 5.8.20: Sample Distribution by Ownership of Assets: House Material
House Material
Male Headed
Male
Blocks and cement
3
Mud
37.50%
Female
1
0.00%
Wood
5
62.50%
Female Headed
0
100%
Total
Male
Sample
Female
Total
4
44.44%
5
35.71%
5
35.71%
9
39.13%
0
0.00%
1
7.14%
1
7.14%
1
4.35%
5
55.56%
8
57.14%
8
57.14%
13
56.52%
A further examination of ownership, with regards to appliances and electronics revealed that respondents
from male headed households were in possession to far greater degrees of appliances and electronics
usually used as indicators of socio-economic status:
 88% of respondents in male headed households indicated possession of Laptop computers,
compared to 71% of respondents in female headed households
 78% of respondents in male headed households recorded having access to the internet, compared
to on 64% of respondents from female headed households
144
Table 5.8.21: Sample Distribution by Ownership of Assets: Appliances / Electronics
Asset / Amenity
Male Headed
Male
Computer
(Desktop)
Computer
(Laptop)
Internet
Television
Video Player /
Recorder
DVD Player
Radio
Telephone
(Land line)
Telephone
(Cellular Phone)
Female Headed
Female
2
25%
7
87.5%
6
Total
Male
Female
Sample
Total
0%
2
22.22%
-
5
35.71%
5
35.71%
7
28.00%
1
100%
8
88.89%
-
10
71.43%
10
71.43%
18
72.00%
75%
1
100%
7
77.78%
-
9
64.29%
9
64.29%
16
64.00%
8
100%
1
100%
9
100.00%
-
13
92.86%
13
92.86%
22
88.00%
4
50%
0%
4
44.44%
-
9
64.29%
9
64.29%
13
52.00%
7
87.5%
100%
8
88.89%
-
11
78.57%
11
78.57%
19
76.00%
5
62.5%
0%
5
55.56%
-
11
78.57%
11
78.57%
16
64.00%
6
75%
0%
6
66.67%
-
9
64.29%
9
64.29%
15
60.00%
8
100%
100%
9
100.00%
-
13
92.86%
13
92.86%
22
88.00%
1
1
Of note, female headed households were in possession of all forms of communication, save radios. This
could have implications in relation to the range of warning systems that would be effective in the instance
of a natural disaster for persons in female-headed households.
In keeping with the higher standards of living respondents from male headed households enjoyed higher
levels of access to private transportation than did respondents from female headed households. As
detailed in Table 5.8.22, whereas 90% of respondents from male headed households had access to private
transportation (N = 8 / 88.89%) this was only the case for 71% (N = 10) or respondents from female headed
households.
Table 5.8.22: Sample Distribution by Ownership of Assets: Transportation
Asset /
Amenity
Private
transportation
Public Transit
Male Headed
Male
7
87.50%
1
12.50%
Female Headed
Female
1
Total
Male
Female
Sample
Total
100%
8
88.89%
10
71.43%
10
71.43%
18
72%
0%
1
11.11%
5
35.71%
5
35.71%
6
24%
Disparities in standards of living for respondents from male and female headed households respectively
were also evident in relation to access to sanitation conveniences. As indicated in Table 5.8.23, while all
respondents from male headed households indicated that they had access to indoor water-flush toilets at
all times, this was only true for 71% of respondents from female headed households.
Table 5.8.23 provides additional details:
Table 5.8.23: Sample Distribution by Ownership of Assets: Access to Sanitation Conveniences
Amenity
Liquid waste disposal
Indoor water-flush toilets
Access
Always
Never
Always
Male Headed
66.67%
22.22%
100.00%
145
Female Headed
57.14%
14.29%
71.43%
Sample
60.87%
17.39%
82.61%
Ninety-six percent of respondents indicated that they had access to piped water within the home, though
this applied to a larger proportion of respondents from male headed households (100%) than female
headed households (93%).
Water was also accessed privately (to which respondents from male headed households also had better
access) and through public means
100.00%
90.00%
80.00%
70.00%
60.00%
50.00%
40.00%
30.00%
20.00%
10.00%
0.00%
Piped water inside the house
Private supply outside the house
Public supply
100.00%
44.44%
22.22%
Female Headed
92.86%
21.43%
7.14%
Sample
95.65%
30.43%
13.04%
Male Headed
Figure 5.8.7: Sample Distribution by Ownership of Assets: Access to Water
Of interest, despite better sanitation conveniences generally, respondents from male headed households
indicated less reliable garbage collection than respondents from female headed households, as detailed in
Table 5.8.24.
Table 5.8.24: Sample Distribution by Ownership of Assets: Access to Garbage Collection
Amenity
Access
Male Headed
Female Headed
Sample
Garbage collection
Always
66.67%
92.86%
82.61%
Never/ Sometimes
33.33%
7.14%
17.39%
Power and Decision Making
Access to power and decision making mirrored trends observed in other research sites, where:
 respondents from male headed households (88.89%) tended to have more access to decision
making in the home than respondents in female headed homes (80%)
 respondents from female headed households indicated higher levels of access to decision making
at level of the community (20%) than did respondents from male headed households (11%).
146
Table 5.8.25: Power and Decision Making
Site of Decision Making
Male Headed
Female Headed
Sample
Household
8
88.89%
12
80.00%
20
83.33%
Informal Community
1
11.11%
1
6.67%
2
8.33%
Formal Community
0
2
13.33%
2
8.33%
Social Networks and Social Capital
Not surprisingly, given the trends observed in relation to women’s community involvement, female were
far more actively involved in the communities, with 44% of all female respondents belonging to a social
group within their respective communities, compared to 22% of male respondents who were similarly
involved.
Table 5.8.26: Social Networks: Community Involvement
Membership
Male
Female
Yes
2
22.22%
7
43.75%
No
4
44.44%
6
37.50%
Additionally, the types of groups in which males and females enjoyed membership differed. Predominantly,
female respondents were involved in church and community service groups, such as The Cancer Society
and Friends of the Environment. Interestingly however, only male respondents indicated that they were
part of the Red Cross, though not as care givers, but as ambulance drivers.
Male respondents indicated membership in groups geared towards the protection of their communities:
Volunteer Fire Department and Neighbourhood Watch, Table 5.8.27.
Table 5.8.27: Social Networks: Community Involvement – Organisation Membership
Organisation
Cancer Society
Chamber of Commerce
Church
Friends of the Environment
Neighbourhood watch
Red Cross
Volunteer Fire Fighter
Male
1
1
2
2
0.00%
16.67%
0.00%
0.00%
16.67%
33.33%
33.33%
Female
2
5
2
22.22%
0.00%
55.56%
22.22%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
With regards to support systems:
 Male respondents tended to rely on relatives within their households for physical help, and
financial assistance to a greater degree than female respondents relied on their relatives with
whom they lived. This could be indicative of understandings of masculinity, which emphasise self
sufficiency.
 Conversely, female respondents relied more heavily on relatives outside their respective
households for physical help and financial assistance than they did on relatives within their homes.
 Interestingly, despite comparatively low male membership in churches, 33% of male respondents
indicated that they would seek personal advice from a religious organisation, which, though less
than the extent to which female respondents looked to the church for advice was only marginally
so.
147
Table 5.8.28: Social Networks: Support Systems
Support System
Relative (within the household)
Physical Help
Male
Female
55.56%
35.71%
Personal Advice
Male
Female
33.33%
57.14%
Financial Assistance
Male
Female
44.44%
42.86%
Relative (outside the household)
33.33%
42.86%
33.33%
28.57%
22.22%
42.86%
Family friend
22.22%
21.43%
22.22%
28.57%
0.00%
0.00%
Religious Organisation
11.11%
7.14%
33.33%
35.71%
11.11%
14.29%
Non-religious Charity
0.00%
7.14%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
Government Agency
0.00%
14.29%
11.11%
0.00%
11.11%
28.57%
Use of Natural Resources
Other than in the instance of the Sea, Coral Reefs and Agricultural Land respondents generally indicated
negligible use of natural resources. Thirty-two and twenty percent of all respondents indicated that the Sea
and Agricultural Land, respectively, were very important for their subsistence. The Sea was equally
important for recreation.
Table 5.8.29: Use and Importance of Natural Resources
Resource
Sea
Coral Reefs
Agricultural
Land
Importance
Very Important
Somewhat important
Not at all important
None / Do Not Use
Very Important
Somewhat important
Not at all important
None / Do Not Use
Very Important
Somewhat important
Not at all important
None / Do Not Use
Subsistence
8
4
1
0
3
0
1
0
5
1
1
0
32.00%
16.00%
4.00%
0.00%
12.00%
0.00%
4.00%
0.00%
20.00%
4.00%
4.00%
0.00%
Livelihood
1
1
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
4.00%
4.00%
4.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
4.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
Recreation
6
6
0
0
2
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
24.00%
24.00%
0.00%
0.00%
8.00%
12.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
When examined on the basis of sex, female respondents seemed more dependent on natural resources for
their livelihoods and subsistence:
 The Sea: 57% of female respondents indicated that the use of the sea was either very or somewhat
important to their subsistence, compared to 33% of male respondents attaching similar levels of
importance to the resource
 Agricultural Land: 25% of female respondents noted that the use of Agricultural land was very
important to their subsistence
148
Table 5.8.30: Use and Importance of Natural Resources, by Sex of Respondent
Resource
Sea
Coral Reefs
Agricultural
Land
Importance
Subsistence
Livelihood
Recreation
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
Very Important
22.22%
37.50%
0.00%
6.25%
0.00%
37.50%
Somewhat important
11.11%
18.75%
11.11%
0.00%
55.56%
6.25%
Not at all important
11.11%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
None / Do Not Use
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
Very Important
11.11%
12.50%
0.00%
0.00%
11.11%
6.25%
Somewhat important
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
22.22%
6.25%
Not at all important
11.11%
0.00%
11.11%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
None / Do Not Use
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
Very Important
11.11%
25.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
Somewhat important
11.11%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
Not at all important
11.11%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
None / Do Not Use
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
With regards to changes observed over the last five years in relation to natural resources, respondents
were mainly concerned with the sea and that:




Used to get more fish
Decline in fish numbers
More boats in the marina, water getting dirtier
Fish has decreased….have to go further out
Consistent with natural resource usage, predominantly it was respondents from female headed households
that indicated that they were involved in Agriculture:
149
80.00%
70.00%
60.00%
50.00%
40.00%
30.00%
20.00%
10.00%
0.00%
Male Headed
Female Headed
Sample
Yes
27.27%
21.05%
28.00%
No
72.73%
52.63%
72.00%
Figure 5.8.8: Graph of Involvement in Agriculture
Table 5.8.31: Involvement in Agriculture
Involved in
Agriculture
Yes
No
Male Headed
3
8
27.27%
72.73%
Female Headed
4
10
28.57%
71.43%
Sample
7
18
28.00%
72.00%
Given the structure of households in the sample, particularly in relation to headship and household
composition, the importance attached to agricultural land for women particularly in regards to subsistence
could pose a serious threat to food security in the instance of a climate related event, such as landslides,
flooding or drought. It must be noted as well, that this pattern is not unique to The Bahamas.
Also of interest, given women’s reliance on Agriculture is the fact that respondents from female headed
households depended on either rain water (40%) or manual irrigation (60%) to provide irrigation for their
agricultural lands. In the instance of drought or water shortage therefore, their food security would be
threatened as 25% of such respondents indicated that Agricultural Land was very important for their
household’s subsistence.
150
Table 5.8.32: Involvement in Agriculture: Irrigation Method
Irrigation Method
Male Headed
Female Headed
Sample
Rain water
1
25.00%
2
40.00%
3
33.33%
Manual Irrigation
2
50.00%
3
60.00%
5
55.56%
Mechanical irrigation
1
25.00%
0
0.00%
1
11.11%
Fortunately, all respondents indicated that their access to water was always reliable. However, a larger
proportion of respondents from female headed households (N = 4 / 40%) indicated that they were aware of
water conflicts in their communities over the last five years, than respondents from male headed
households (N = 1 / 33%)
Table 5.8.33: Involvement in Agriculture: Knowledge of Water Conflict
Knowledge of
Water Conflict
Male Headed
Female Headed
Sample
Yes
1
33.33%
4
40.00%
5
38.46%
No
2
66.67%
6
60.00%
8
61.54%
Knowledge, Exposure and Experience of Climate Related Events
Surprisingly, given past
experiences with severe
weather systems (See Box
5.8.1),
respondents
indicated only fair levels of
knowledge in relation to
Hurricanes, with only 44% of
respondents
sampled
indicating
that
their
knowledge was very good.
Of
note
however,
respondents from male
headed households had a far
more
comprehensive
knowledge of Hurricanes
and Storm Surge, both of
which are direct threats for
Abaco, than respondents
from
female
headed
households.
Box 5.8.1: Abaco and the Experience of Extreme Weather Impacts
Floyd Devastates Some Islands in Bahamas: Abaco Islands
Hardest Hit
Bahamas hard hit Tuesday, September 14, by the full blunt of massive
Hurricane Floyd over its 700 small, low-lying islands. The eye passed over
Abaco at 5 pm AST Tuesday was about 25 miles wide and had taken
somewhat over 2 hours to pass, according to one report. There was no
power and telephone at that time, but ham radio reports were relayed to
message boards.
After the storm, assessments started being made and aftermath disaster aid
organized with limited resources available.
Abaco Islands suffered some of the worst damage. See The Marsh Harbour
report notes that "the jewel of The Bahamas has been totally transformed."
One death is confirmed at Freetown when a person swam from a flooded
car and another death occurred - a person was electrocuted when power
was restored after the storm. Two people were reported missing at Abaco
Source: http://www.b-v-i.com/NewsLinks/HurricaneFloyd/default.htm
151
Table 5.8.34: Knowledge of Climate Related Events
Event
Hurricane
Flooding
Storm
Surge
Drought
Landslides
Knowledge
SAMPLE
MALE HEADED
FEMALE HEADED
Male
Female
Total
Female
Total
Poor
4.00%
14.29%
0.00%
12.50%
Male
0.00%
0.00%
Average
40.00%
14.29%
100.00%
25.00%
57.14%
57.14%
Very Good
44.00%
71.43%
0.00%
62.50%
42.86%
42.86%
Poor
32.00%
28.57%
100.00%
37.50%
35.71%
35.71%
Average
32.00%
42.86%
0.00%
37.50%
35.71%
35.71%
Very Good
24.00%
28.57%
0.00%
25.00%
28.57%
28.57%
Poor
28.00%
28.57%
0.00%
25.00%
35.71%
35.71%
Average
32.00%
14.29%
100.00%
25.00%
42.86%
42.86%
Very Good
28.00%
57.14%
0.00%
50.00%
21.43%
21.43%
Poor
52.00%
85.71%
100.00%
87.50%
42.86%
42.86%
Average
20.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
35.71%
35.71%
Very Good
16.00%
14.29%
0.00%
12.50%
21.43%
21.43%
Poor
64.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
72.73%
72.73%
Average
4.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
9.09%
9.09%
Very Good
8.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
18.18%
18.18%
Of interest, despite relatively low levels of knowledge of the technical aspects of the various climate related
events, respondents, particularly in relation to Hurricanes, indicated relatively high levels (84%) of
knowledge of appropriate responses. In the instance of flooding, just over half of all respondents sampled
(56%) were aware of appropriate action to take, without asking for assistance. The situation was even more
wanting in the instance of storm surge, where only 52% of respondents were aware of the appropriate
responses. Of note, respondents from male headed households consistently were more aware of the
appropriate response to climate related events, than respondents from female headed households (see
Table 5.8.35). This could have serious implications for the development of adaptation and mitigation
strategies for members of these households.
152
Table 5.8.35: Knowledge of Appropriate Response to Climate Related Events
Event
Hurricane
Flooding
Storm Surge
Drought
Landslides
Knowledge
SAMPLE
Yes
MALE HEADED
FEMALE HEADED
Male
Female
Total
84.00%
85.71%
100.00%
No
4.00%
14.29%
Don't Know
0.00%
Yes
Male
Female
Total
87.50%
100.00%
100.00%
0.00%
12.50%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
56.00%
85.71%
0.00%
75.00%
57.14%
57.14%
No
20.00%
14.29%
100.00%
25.00%
21.43%
21.43%
Don't Know
12.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
21.43%
21.43%
Yes
52.00%
57.14%
100.00%
62.50%
57.14%
57.14%
No
28.00%
42.86%
0.00%
37.50%
28.57%
28.57%
Don't Know
8.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
14.29%
14.29%
Yes
40.00%
42.86%
100.00%
50.00%
42.86%
42.86%
No
24.00%
28.57%
0.00%
25.00%
28.57%
28.57%
Don't Know
24.00%
28.57%
0.00%
25.00%
28.57%
28.57%
Yes
12.00%
33.33%
33.33%
16.67%
16.67%
No
32.00%
0.00%
0.00%
66.67%
66.67%
Don't Know
16.00%
66.67%
66.67%
16.67%
16.67%
Appropriate responses to various climate related events are captured in Table 5.8.36:
153
Table 5.8.36: Appropriate Response to Climate Related Events
Hurricane
Flooding
Landslide
Batten down house
Evacuate area
Evacuate area
Evacuate if necessary
Do not attempt to cross
flooded area
Pull down hurricane shutters
Evacuate to higher ground
Clean Drainage
Get elevated
Put bedding on blocks
Use sand bags
Drought
Store Water
Reduce water usage
Store adequate drinking water
First Aid Supplies
Secure assets and head to
shelter
Store Supplies
Stock Food
Protect house from flooding
Listen for warnings
Of interest, despite the passage of Hurricane Floyd fifteen years ago, respondents - when questioned
around the perceived risk of climate related events to their households - most often indicated ‘No Risk’ or a
‘Low Risk’ of Hurricanes (72%), Flooding (72%) and Storm Surge (64%). This pattern was observed in both
male and female headed households, though respondents from female headed households indicated
higher perceptions of risk of Flooding and Storm Surge. Additional details are provided in Table 5.8.37.
The perceptions could however be indicative of the fact that over half of the respondents sampled had
lived in the community for less than fifteen years, and had not had the experience of Hurricane Floyd and
its devastation.
154
Table 5.8.37: Perceived Level of Risk of Climate Related Events: Household
Event
Hurricane
Flooding
Storm
Surge
Drought
Landslides
Perception
of Risk
Sample
Male Headed
Female Headed
Male
Female
Total
Male
Female
Total
No Risk
4.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
-
7.14%
7.14%
Low Risk
68.00%
71.43%
100.00%
75.00%
-
78.57%
78.57%
High Risk
16.00%
28.57%
0.00%
25.00%
-
14.29%
14.29%
No Risk
32.00%
14.29%
100.00%
25.00%
-
42.86%
42.86%
Low Risk
40.00%
71.43%
0.00%
62.50%
-
35.71%
35.71%
High Risk
16.00%
14.29%
0.00%
12.50%
-
21.43%
21.43%
No Risk
36.00%
42.86%
0.00%
37.50%
-
46.15%
46.15%
Low Risk
28.00%
42.86%
100.00%
50.00%
-
23.08%
23.08%
High Risk
12.00%
14.29%
0.00%
12.50%
-
18.18%
18.18%
No Risk
32.00%
42.86%
100.00%
50.00%
-
30.77%
30.77%
Low Risk
52.00%
57.14%
0.00%
50.00%
-
69.23%
69.23%
High Risk
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
-
0.00%
0.00%
No Risk
64.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
-
100.00%
100.00%
Low Risk
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
-
0.00%
0.00%
High Risk
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
-
0.00%
0.00%
Perceptions of risk were better understood when measured against respondents’ experience of climate
related events. One third of respondents from male headed households indicated that, within the last five
years, hurricanes had a high/serious impact their livelihoods compared to only 15.38% of respondents from
female headed households who were similarly impacted.
Table 5.8.38: Level of Impact from Hurricanes and Flooding on Respondents’ Livelihoods (2006-2011)
EVENT
Hurricane
Flooding
IMPACT
SAMPLE
MALE HEADED
FEMALE HEADED
Male
Female
Total
Male
Female
Total
No Impact
52.00%
40.00%
100.00%
50.00%
76.92%
76.92%
Medium
Impact
8.00%
20.00%
0.00%
16.67%
7.69%
7.69%
High Impact
16.00%
40.00%
0.00%
33.33%
15.38%
15.38%
No Impact
52.00%
40.00%
100.00%
50.00%
90.91%
90.91%
Medium
Impact
16.00%
60.00%
0.00%
50.00%
9.09%
9.09%
High Impact
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
Similar to patterns observed in other research sites, respondents consistently reported higher levels of risk
to climate related events for their respective communities than they did for their own households.
The disparity (between perceived risk at the household and community level) was greatest in the instance
of High Risk of Hurricane, for which 16% of respondents indicated a High Risk for their households,
compared to 40% of respondents who perceived a High Risk for their community.
155
Landslides
High
Low
No
Drought
High
Low
Flooding
Storm Surge
No
High
Low
No
High
Low
Hurricane
No
High
Low
No
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
Household
0.5
0.6
0.7
Community
Figure 5.8.9: Perceptions of Household and Community Risk of Climate Related Events
Table 5.8.39: Perceptions of Household and Community Risk of Climate Related Events
Event
Hurricane
Flooding
Storm Surge
Drought
Landslides
Perception
of Risk
Household
Community
Risk
Difference
None
Low
High
None
Low
High
None
Low
High
None
Low
High
None
Low
High
4.00%
68.00%
16.00%
32.00%
40.00%
16.00%
36.00%
28.00%
12.00%
32.00%
52.00%
0.00%
64.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
20.00%
56.00%
4.00%
36.00%
40.00%
16.00%
20.00%
40.00%
28.00%
28.00%
12.00%
32.00%
16.00%
4.00%
4.00%
48.00%
-40.00%
28.00%
4.00%
-24.00%
20.00%
8.00%
-28.00%
4.00%
24.00%
-12.00%
32.00%
-16.00%
-4.00%
Similar to patterns observed in relation to perceived risk to respondents’ households, respondents from
male headed households indicated higher levels of risk to their community in the instance of Hurricane. Of
interest, despite perceptions of their households being at lower risk of Storm Surge, respondents from male
headed households believed that their community was at higher risk for Storm Surge, than the
communities of respondents from female headed households
156
Table 5.8.40: Perceived Level of Risk of Climate Related Events: Community
Event
Hurricane
Flooding
Storm Surge
Drought
Landslides
MALE HEADED
FEMALE HEADED
Perception
of Risk
SAMPLE
No Risk
0.0%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
Low Risk
20.0%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
41.67%
41.67%
High Risk
56.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
58.33%
58.33%
No Risk
4.0%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
7.69%
7.69%
Low Risk
36.0%
50.00%
100.0%
57.14%
38.46%
38.46%
High Risk
40.0%
50.00%
0.00%
42.86%
53.85%
53.85%
No Risk
16.0%
16.67%
0.00%
14.29%
25.00%
25.00%
Low Risk
20.0%
16.67%
100.0%
28.57%
25.00%
25.00%
High Risk
40.0%
66.67%
0.00%
57.14%
50.00%
50.00%
No Risk
28.0%
40.00%
0.00%
33.33%
45.45%
45.45%
Low Risk
28.0%
60.00%
100.0%
66.67%
27.27%
27.27%
High Risk
12.0%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
27.27%
27.27%
No Risk
32.0%
33.33%
33.33%
70.00%
70.00%
Low Risk
16.0%
66.67%
66.67%
20.00%
20.00%
High Risk
4.0%
0.00%
0.00%
10.00%
10.00%
Male
Female
Total
Male
Female
Total
5.8.6. Adaptation and mitigation strategies
Alarmingly, despite perceptions of risk, only four respondents indicated that they had made any
preparations in order to cope with the possible effects of climate change in the future. Not unlike other
research sites, however these preparations focused on the adoption of a Green Approach and
Infrastructural improvements.
Green approach
Respondents indicated that they had made changes in their lifestyles, which could have a positive impact
on the incidence of climate change. Such changes included:
 Recycling and garbage separation
 Recycle water
 Composting
Infrastructural improvements
Additionally, respondents indicated that they had made infrastructural improvements to their homes,
which could prevent or minimise damage in the instance of a climate related event. These included:
 Reroofed house and changed windows and doors
 Built house hurricane proof
Respondents also believed that personal health and fitness was critical, and could increase levels of
preparedness during a climate related event.
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Not surprisingly, respondents reported being most affected by Hurricanes and Flooding within the last five
years. In the instance of Hurricanes, respondents were most likely to reduce expenses and borrow money
as a strategy of adaptation; while in the instance of Flooding, respondents were most likely to sell assets.
Table 5.8.41: Adaptation Strategies Employed
Event
Adaptation Activity
Flooding
Hurricane
Male
Selling Assets
Borrowing Money
Seeking Assistance
Reducing Expenses
Starting a New Livelihood Activity
Decreasing Household Size
Selling Assets
Borrowing Money
Seeking Assistance
Reducing Expenses
Starting a New Livelihood Activity
Decreasing Household Size
Male Headed
Female Total
2
1
3
Female Headed
Male Female Total
Sample
2
2
3
2
2
5
2
Though few respondents were able to specify risks, predominantly those respondents who identified risks
perceived issues of the economy as the greatest risk to their economic livelihood over the next five years.
Table 5.8.42: Perceptions of Risk to Community Economic Livelihoods
Female Respondents
Male Respondents
Recession
Severe weather events
US Depression Affecting Tourists Visiting Abaco
Hurricanes
Loss Of Business In Tourism Industry
Slow economy
Bahamas is too heavily dependent on foreign
resources
Changing industry
Poor Economy
Inflation
Loss Of Income
Global economy
Hurricanes
3
Values too small to be represented as percentages. Figures appear as N values
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6. RECOMMENDED STRATEGIES AND INITIAL ACTION PLAN
The following recommendations have been developed in consultation with national and community
stakeholders through the use of various participatory tools. They support the main objective of the CCCRA
which is to provide a scientific (physical and social) basis to support decision making, policy and planning by
governments, communities and the private sector that increase resilience of economies and livelihoods to
climate change. The recommendations are also consistent with the strategies and programmes identified in
the Climate Change and the Caribbean: A Regional Framework for Achieving Development Resilient to
Climate Change endorsed by the CARICOM Heads of State.
Recommendations are presented as an initial plan of action with a brief description of the intervention, the
national and/or local stakeholders involved and the expected benefits, and are categorised according to
short-, medium- and long-term interventions. All recommendations are considered ‘No-regret’ or ‘Lowregret’ strategies. 'No-regret' strategies seek to maximise positive and minimise negative outcomes for
communities and societies in climate-sensitive areas such as agriculture, food security, water resources and
health. This means taking climate-related decisions or actions that make sense in development terms,
whether or not a specific climate threat actually materialises in the future. ‘Low-regret’ adaptation options
are those where moderate levels of investment increase the capacity to cope with future climate risks.
Typically, these involve over-specifying components, for example installing larger diameter drains or
hurricane shutters at the time of initial construction or refurbishment (World Bank, 2012).
Each one or a group of recommendations can be further developed into a concept note or project proposal
with a full action plan, with much of the supporting information found in this document. Earlier sections of
this report have provided the rationale for recommended interventions based on the vulnerabilities and
adaptive capacity identified for key sectors.
6.1.
Cross-Cutting Actions
The following activities must be undertaken in the short-term, across a number of sectors, to ensure the
success of the more specific and practical recommendations presented in later sections. These cross-cutting
actions provide the necessary foundation, in terms of information and data, development policy,
awareness raising and cross-sectoral linkages from which wider actions to combat the threat of climate
change on future development can be legitimized. With this foundation, future actions and the allocation
of resources to adaptation and mitigation activities are more easily justified because decisions can be based
on current information, as well as common goals and a widespread understanding of the severity of the
threat.
6.1.1. Implementing and Strengthening Data Collection, Monitoring and
Evaluation Activities
It is evident in a number of sectors that the lack of data and inadequate monitoring and evaluation
procedures inhibit the ability of the relevant agencies to plan and manage a number of resources.
Monitoring and evaluation is essential if progress is to be demonstrated. By collecting and sharing the
information gathered, Section 6.1.3, it is possible to gain even greater support amongst stakeholders.
Specific areas and suggestions for data collection, monitoring and evaluation include:
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Update the census data and broaden the data collected to ensure that all vulnerable groups are
accounted for to assist with emergency response planning. During the 2004 impacts from
Hurricanes Frances and Jeanne it was identified that underestimations of population numbers in
many settlements made shelter, evacuation and relief planning more difficult (Jones, 2005). As
such, collection of census data for all the islands is recommended so that resource needs can be
properly addressed. This is especially pertinent to islands with large numbers of illegal immigrants
who would not normally be captured by official statistics, but who are likely to be amongst the
most vulnerable members of the society.
Develop an in-depth water quality monitoring programme, particularly for non-registered private
wells. Indiscrimate abstraction is a concern associated with private wells that are unregistered and
therefore unmonitored, with a strong likelihood of shrinking freshwater lenses and saline intrusion
as a result. In light of these concerns, a recommendation coming out of The Bahamas Initial
National Communication to the UNFCCC is that “A programme of water quality monitoring for
fresh, saline and hyper-saline waters is needed in order to assess their vulnerability to sea level
rise” (BEST, 2001). The implementation of this programme should be actively pursued as it is not
fully in effect, insofar as research has shown.
Assessments focussing on the links between health, tourism and climate change: There is a need
for assessments to understand the possible links between the epidemiology of diseases in The
Bahamas with climate change using local climate data. This follows the policy directive identified in
The Bahamas Climate Change Policy (2005) –which suggests a need to “Conduct the necessary
research and information-gathering in order to strengthen the basis for sound decision-making”
(NCCC-BEST, 2005). Additionally, Exit Surveys can be conducted to investigate potential health
concerns, and to determine the perception of tourists on the relationships between travel, health
and climate change in the Bahamas. These assessments can lead to a better understanding of the
implications for tourists entering the region contracting diseases, particularly communicable
diseases; and the likelihood of destination substitution.
Data collection, research, monitoring and evaluation in the Health Sector: A greater effort is
required to have local data better analysed, peer reviewed and published. This approach will allow
for validation and for developing a “culture” for systematic review and the conversion of
knowledge into policy and planning. This is also highlighted in The Bahamas Initial National
Communication to the UNFCCC, noting that “there are many gaps in existing data and information,
a lack of tools to assess the physical, social and economic impacts on the most vulnerable sectors of
the economy” where health was identified among these most vulnerable sectors (BEST, 2001).
Increased epidemiological monitoring is also recommended due to the expected increases in the
incidence of tropical diseases as a result of climate change (BEST, 2001). Furthermore, one of the
Climate Change Policy directives is to “Promote health-related research and information-gathering
in order to strengthen the basis for sound decision-making” (NCCC-BEST, 2005).
Develop computer models of groundwater flow to account for the impact of sea-level rise on
groundwater levels. Numerical models of ground-water have been used elsewhere to establish
how sea-level rise impacts on aquifer thickness and saline intrusion (e.g. Bobba, 2002). Due to the
particular vulnerability of aquifers in The Bahamas, these models should be developed urgently in
order to effectively mitigate the effects of climate change on freshwater resources. This
recommendation is broadly in line with those of The Bahamas National Report on the
Implementation of the UNCCD resulting from an ICZM Workshop, where it was recommended that
there should be the “Establishment of prediction models for sea-level rise and coastal impacts”
(BEST, 2006c).
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Inventory existing coastal protection defences, as well as their design range and maintenance
status. This analysis of the vulnerability of tourism infrastructure was hindered by inadequate data
on existing coastal structures, their type, design specifications and expected lifetime. Future
assessments of the costs and benefits of coastal protection require this information to provide a
more accurate estimate of the resources required for SLR adaptation.
6.1.2. Mainstreaming Climate Change in Policy, Planning and Practice
Due to the time scales required for the removal of GHG from the atmosphere and the thermal inertia of the
oceans, the effects of prior emissions will ensure that climate change impacts will persist for more than a
millennium (Areces-Mallea, et al., 1999; MHLE, 2005). It is therefore vital to not only recognize the
vulnerabilities, but to anticipate and prepare for future implications. More than implementing a technology
or building a structure, mainstreaming climate change becomes a critical element of adaptation if it is to be
successful. It involves awareness raising, information sharing, planning and design, implementation, and
perhaps most importantly, evaluation (Linham & Nicholls, 2010). Noting gaps or room for improvement in
some areas, the following recommendations are outlined for consideration by the respective stakeholders
in addressing the issue of mainstreaming climate change:
Develop and implement sustainable tourism plans with more attention paid to disaster risk reduction
and climate change adaptation: Tourism infrastructure is mainly concentrated in high risk coastal zone
areas. Storm surge, SLR and coastal erosion will degrade the tourism product (e.g. beach, coral reef) and
climate change in general threatens to destabilise tourism-based economies like that of The Bahamas.
Therefore, the integration of feasible and flexible adaptive and risk reduction strategies is paramount to
building the resilience of the large cross-section of tourism players, and the tourism sector at large to the
impacts of climate change. Collaboration and support from hotels and tourism-related enterprises is
needed to successfully achieve these goals, and pertinent partners will include the Ministry of Tourism and
Aviation, the Bahamas Hotel and Tourism Association, NEMA and the BEST Commission (Ministry of
Environment).
Integrate SLR considerations in local land use and development planning, with special consideration for
vulnerable coastal areas and tourism hot-spots to reduce or avoid impacts: This will require national-level
consultation with land use management and tourism stakeholders – in particular, BEST in the Ministry of
Environment, Ministry of Public Works and Transport, Ministry of Tourism and the Town Planning
Committee – to utilise the broad scale results of this study and higher-resolution local scale studies to guide
reviews and updates of official land use and tourism master plans. Addtionally, the Government of the
Bahamas should:



Commence coastal adaptation planning early, by working with local stakeholders on the
development of coastal protection systems. The detailed local level planning for coastal protection
needs to begin within the next 15 years if the environmental assessments, financing, land
acquisition, and construction is to be completed by mid-Century, so that the economic benefits of
damage prevention are optimised.
Consider the development of official SLR risk maps to further guide future coastal development.
Assess all projects that involve building, maintaining, or modifying infrastructure in coastal areas at
risk from SLR to ensure that the new developments take the most recent estimates of SLR from the
scientific community into account. The cost of reconstruction after flood damage is often higher
than modifying structures in the design phase.
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
Further to policy directives indicated in the Climate Change Policy (NCCC-BEST, 2005) under
Financial and Insurance Sectors, work with insurance companies to develop policies that take into
account the unique risks faced by coastal areas which will enable landowners to properly assess
coastal protection and retreat options.
Provide subsidies for appropriate adaptation measures that will result in long term economic
benefits for both the tourism sector and the country as a whole.
Mainstream gender and poverty into climate change and related policies: Challenges of poverty reduction
and climate change need to be addressed in a coherent and synergistic way that draws on the lessons and
progress in development policy and particularly the recognition of the importance of gender differences if
policies are to be sustainable, effective and benefit all sectors of the population. Achieving sustainable and
effective responses to climate change therefore requires attention to the underlying power relations and
gender equalities which create vulnerability both to poverty and climate hazards, and a more gendersensitive approach which takes into account and evaluates the differing and potentially inequitable access
which men and women have to economic, ecological, social and human resources, institutions, governance
and infrastructure.
Although gender and poverty considerations are not specifically recognised within the National Climate
Change Policy, the development process of The Bahamas National Gender Policy has included discussions
on gender-specific roles in disaster management and differential vulnerabilities (NCCC-BEST, 2005; Cadet,
2011; The Eleutheran, 2011). Jointly supported initiatives (listed below) with participation from entities
such as The Bureau of Women’s Affairs, BEST and NEMA can be implemented in support of the forthcoming
Gender Policy and in light of the impacts of climate change on men and women:

Provide gender disaggregated data and evidence on the impacts of climate change to show how
men and women are being affected differently by climate-related changes, whether direct impacts
such as extreme weather conditions or disasters, water shortages, food insecurity or changes in
land use or indirect secondary impacts such as access to energy, changes in employment
opportunities, sectoral impacts (such as in agriculture, tourism and fisheries), and increased
migration or conflict.

Conduct a gender- analysis on the social impacts of current policies on adaptation and mitigation
and how they may benefit or adversely affect men and women in different ways. Even when
policies have clear gender-related statements or objectives, rarely do they have the mechanisms in
place to integrate gender at programme level or to measure the impact of the policies from a
gendered perspective. Economic cost-benefit analyses often overlook the social implications and
there is a lack of methodology for measuring the gendered impacts of current policies.

Improve institutional capacity in key agencies to implement gender sensitive policies or gather
gendered data. This is needed due to the lack of gender experts involved in policy design and
implementation around climate change; the lack of awareness or gender training of key staff in
ministries and statistics offices responsible for climate change data and policies; and a general
disconnect between the reality of poor people’s (and particularly under-represented women’s)
lives and policy makers.
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6.1.3. Building and Strengthening Information Sharing and Communication
Systems and Networks
It is essential that a tri-partite approach is taken when developing the full action plans for the
recommended strategies given. A number of relevant studies have been undertaken in the Bahamas in the
past, but the recommendations are frequently not implemented for a number of reasons, lack of resources
being commonly cited. By establishing a framework by which government, private sector entities and civil
society can work more effectively together, the probability of implementation and widespread ‘buy-in’ to
the numerous initiatives increases. It is not possible for any one group to achieve the changes that are
needed alone and government must ensure that national policy goals and challenges faced are shared so
that solutions can be discussed and negotiated between groups. Gaining support for initiatives is also
facilitated through education and awareness, Section 6.1.4.
The data and information produced through the various initiatives described in Section 6.1.1 must be
communicated and made available through networks in each sector and across sectors. This is especially
true for the idea of a green economy that will require the restructuring of economic systems towards
establishing a low-carbon society. It is thus important to document and communicate progress to create
positive opinion in large parts of society.
National level data should be made available to regional clearing houses where they exist and, where they
don’t exist, thought should be given to establishing them. Some areas for consideration include:


Epidemiology data with climate signals: Moreno (2006) has suggested the establishment of a
central clearing house containing information on diseases whose transmission is modified by
climate change as well as relevant environmental data. The Caribbean Epidemiology Centre
(CAREC) is one regional institution that has summarised such statistics, but even this organisation
has noted that incomplete data is given from various countries and identified The Bahamas among
them in its Annual Report for 2008 (CAREC, 2009). Therefore more detailed information especially
presenting temporal and environmental and climatological data will be of benefit to researchers. It
is also noted that such statistics might be politically sensitive, resulting in some resistance to this
recommendation, Moreno (2006). Other regional institutions that might be suited to housing such
a repository include CEHI, CCCCC and UWI.
Biodiversity data: The creation of a user-friendly online database, an e-repository, for the region’s
biological data will benefit not only environmental managers but all other economic sectors that
rely on natural resources (agriculture, fisheries, tourism). In order to address the limited human
resources that constrain data collection, Section 6.1.1, the e-repository will take the form of a wiki
allowing the database to be populated by researchers, students, eco-tourists and the general
population. The regional e-repository for biodiversity will:
o Integrate biodiversity research facilities in the region
o Facilitate the sharing of data
o Encourage public participation in data collection and monitoring
The Caribbean Marine Atlas is one example of a suitable online database that could be expanded
and further developed to include this type of information.
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6.1.4. Climate Change Education and Awareness
The previous section on communication and networking relates directly to the sharing of information to
assist decision making and planning. However, without education and awareness raising on climate change
and the likely impacts of climate change on specific sectors the information shared will be meaningless. The
research in a number of sectors highlighted specific areas that need additional efforts in education and
awareness:





Disaster risk reduction and emergency preparedness at the household level;
Water conservation, rain water harvesting and other collection techniques for households, as well
as water treatment;
The importance of energy and the role of emissions in climate change, specifically knowledge about
energy, its generation, and the economic and environmental importance of energy;
Climate-related diseases and health promotion, with particular emphasis on preventable diseases
or conditions such as malaria and diarrhoea, and the development of linkages with the agricultural
sector to reduce malnutrition and improve food security;
Impacts and costs of SLR to communities, but also to the public and private sectors, because of
these damages have implications for livelihoods and sustainable development.
Due to the interrelated nature of some environmental issues and natural processes collaboration between
different sectors can reinforce learning amongst the general public while also providing synergistic benefits
for resources. The International Federation of the Red Cross has a strong history of effective work with
community capacity building and disaster risk reduction activities. NEMA, by working with the Red Cross,
can develop a culturally appropriate communication plan that will not only communicate the vital
information Bahamians need to reduce their vulnerability, but be in a format that individuals will listen to
and take note of. For example, the use of mobile phone technology can allow vital information to reach
individuals during emergency situations. Research at the community level revealed that not all persons
have cell phones, so this technique requires complementary messages to be transmitted through more
traditional mediums, radio and television. In addition, building awareness of the issues mentioned above
can be better embraced when the message is conveyed by a respected figure. Children and youth have
been found to be good transmitters of basic environmental information.
Education and awareness initiatives should not only be limited to locals, but include visitors to The
Bahamas as well. Short videos encouraging visitors to be more conscious of their impacts on the fragile
ecosystems of the islands can be shown during in-bound international flights as In-flight Entertainment
(IFE). The films will focus on positive actions that visitors can take to minimise negative impacts on the
environment by decreasing energy and water consumption and wastage, and by taking necessary
precautions during marine based recreation (diving, snorkelling, boating).
With regard to the impacts of disasters on tourism specifically there needs to be an improved
communication mechanism, whether through NEMA or the Ministry of Tourism, to ensure that the world
tourism market is informed as quickly as possible of the extent of the damage after an event. This would
reduce any misunderstanding that since one island has been impacted then all islands in The Bahamas must
be effectively closed. Similarly, tourists must be well-informed of preventative measures to take to avoid
health risks such as dengue and heat-stress, and continued health education and promotion campaigns will
be crucial in promoting long term disease prevention.
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6.2.
Water Quality and Availability
Water resources in The Bahamas are particularly vulnerable to climate change, especially from sea-level
rise leading to an increased risk of salinisation of aquifers. The country is well advanced in the planning of
adaptation measures for water resources under climate change, however its geographic nature makes the
implementation of these measures particularly challenging. There are some clear areas which can be
addressed, particularly in areas of water use efficiency, water recycling schemes and continued
developments to supply structures. The following recommendations are made, which anticipate input in
most cases from the Bahamas Water and Sewerage Commission, but also consider other private (e.g.
Wastewater treatment facilities) and community entities as key players or stakeholders:
Short Term Actions
Assess the possibility of broad scale implementation of localised waste water recycling schemes and
legislation, including for agricultural irrigation. While some resorts do recycle treated wastewater for
irrigation purposes, generally wastewater is discharged into disposal wells (Cox et al., 2005). Reducing the
required fresh water for household and hotel use would alleviate pressure on groundwater systems. Some
areas that demand considerable quantities of water include golf courses and the tourism industry
particularly through cruise ships. Waste water from domestic and tourism use can be recycled to produce
irrigation water, either for agriculture or the irrigation of golf courses. This would alleviate the pressure on
groundwater and reduce the need for desalination.
Medium Term Actions
Develop pilot projects to assess artificial recharge of aquifers, and conduct feasibility studies explore the
possibility of additional projects. As suggested in the Initial National Communication on Climate Change to
the UNFCCC, injection of water into aquifers could buffer the effects of saline intrusion. Aquifers act as
large reservoirs of fresh water which reduce vulnerability during periods of drought. Upstream injection
increases recharge volumes and downstream recharge increases the barrier between saline and
freshwater. Maintaining sufficient groundwater recharge would reduce the risk of saline intrusion and help
to maintain water quality. The source of water used for artificial recharge should be selected carefully to
avoid issues with nitrates entering groundwater, and such an initiative could be led by the Bahamas Water
and Sewerage Corporation, as well as the Department for Environmental Health Services. Other players
such as the BEST Commission can play key roles.
Consider the development of mechanisms to facilitate Integrated Water Resources Management
(IWRM). The basis of IWRM is that different users of water are interdependent: IWRM encourages a move
away from a uni-sectoral water management approach to one which allows participatory decision-making
including different user groups. Such an approach allows an equitable management of water resources,
which will be particularly important with declining water resources under climate change. The main
components of IWRM are: managing water resources at the lowest possible level (at the river basin or
watershed scale); optimising supply and managing demand; providing equitable access to water resources
through participatory and transparent governance and management; establishing improved and integrated
policy, regulatory and institutional frameworks; utilising an inter-sectoral approach to decision making;
integrating management means that we receive multiple benefits from a single intervention. IWRM
requires that platforms be developed to allow different stakeholders to work together.
The Bahamas has already engaged in some components of IWRM through participation in the Integrated
Watershed and Coastal Areas Management (IWCAM) Programme, with demonstration projects at Elizabeth
Harbour in Exuma, as well as Andros Island. The outcomes and lessons learnt from these demonstrations
165
can help to guide the development of a national IWRM plan. As an inter-sectoral initiative, there are many
relevant stakeholders, but principal involvement would come from the Bahamas Water and Sewerage
Corporation, BEST, and also the Ministry of Tourism – a sector with high freshwater demand but few
resource management schemes at the hotel or destination level. Institutional and legislative frameworks at
all stages of water planning and management should be revisited, assessed and, if necessary, amended to
allow the implementation of IWRM.
Increase efficiency in the water metering system and undertake broad consultation on the updating of
pricing structure of water to encourage water conservation. The price for water on The Bahamas has not
been raised since 1999 (Spencer et al., 2010), yet the vast majority of households are connected to
metered piped infrastructure (PAHO, 2007). Water rates should be updated to encourage water
conservation, particularly for businesses such as hotels which have been found generally to lack sufficient
sustainable water management practices (Edwards, 2004).
Assess the possibility of implementing culvert drainage through sea-wall embankments. High sea-walls
currently result in trapped water during flood events (ICFC, 2002), exacerbating flooding and increasing risk
of groundwater contamination (Buchan, 2000; ICFC, 2002). Culvert drainage structures which allow flow
only in the seaward direction could be installed to address this problem.
Long Term Actions
Undertake broad consultation over the licensing of abstraction and control of land development and use
developed computer models of groundwater flow to account for the impact of changes on groundwater
levels. Licensed abstraction would allow much closer control over groundwater levels and enable
mitigation of potential impacts of drought and sea-level rise. However, in order for this to be effective,
detailed information on the impacts of licensed abstraction on groundwater levels would be required.
Groundwater modelling will provide this information in conjunction with existing groundwater information
networks. Such legislation should focus on abstraction from private wells, which is the dominant source for
water supply yet lacks sufficient regulation (Spencer et al., 2010).
6.3.
Energy Supply and Distribution
Short Term Actions
Continue with the development of the National Energy Policy and define specific national action plans to
reach policy targets: The Government of the Commonwealth of the Bahamas has acknowledged the urgent
need to reduce emissions, reduce dependency on fossil fuels and increase energy supply from renewable
sources, in light of the social, economic and environmental benefits that can be gleaned. The National
Energy Policy will be a pivotal instrument in guiding this transition, and the Government has demonstrated
its resolve to develop a meaningful and comprehensive policy tool. Once national policy goals have been
agreed upon, an action plan to avoid energy use, increase efficiency, and to use a greater share of
renewable energy sources needs implemented over the coming years with strong commitment, in order to
meet policy targets. This plan needs to combine savings potentials (energy management; cf. Gössling 2010)
as well as technological restructuring. Valuable information on the potential of wind- and solar power can
for instance found in Bishop and Amaratunga (2008), Chen et al. (1990), Chen et al. (1994), and Headley
(1998). While the National Energy Policy Committee, and the BEST Commission will contribute to policy
development, it will rest on agencies across all sectors to play their part in meeting targets.
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Create incentives for low-carbon technology use: Further to efforts by the Government of the Bahamas to
promote energy conservation and efficiency – the introduction and wide promotion of energy star quality
products and waiving of duties on energy efficient products, the expansion of low-carbon technology use
needs to be further supported through other incentive structures. An ecological tax reform, for instance,
could shift tax burdens from labour to energy and natural resources, and thus “reward” users of low-carbon
technology. Other incentives could include financial support, reward mechanisms or awards. There is also a
range of examples of bonus-malus4 systems in tourism and transport, rewarding those choosing to pollute
less.
Medium Term Actions
Development and integration of quality training programmes related to renewable energy technologies
within the professional training environment: The pursuit of renewable energy technologies (RETs) in the
Bahamas may be restricted by the lack of technical skills for dealing with RET equipment or supplies. As
such, a comprehensive training programme should be provided through the Bahamas Technical and
Vocational Institute, to develop and maintain a cadre of certified technicians and engineers who are
competent in all aspects of RET handling, installation, repair and possibly production.
Adjust energy pricing to influence energy use and emissions: Taxes, emission trading and other economic
instruments are needed to steer energy use and emissions, conveying clear, long-term market signals. It is
important for these economic instruments to significantly increase the costs of fossil fuels and emissions.
Price levels also need to be stable (not declining below a given level), progressive (increasing at a significant
rate per year) and foreseeable (be implemented over longer time periods), to allow companies to integrate
energy costs in long-term planning and decision-making.
Long Term Actions
Use regulation to stimulate changes and adaptation: While carbon pricing is the most efficient tool to
stimulate behavioural change and changes in production, market failures justify additional policy
intervention (see also Francis et al. 2007). Energy-intense forms of tourism and transport as well as
behavioural change are difficult to steer through rising energy costs can be addressed through other
measures, such as speed limits, bans of jet skis, quads, or other motorised transport at the destination
level. Moreover, regulation can include building codes and other minimum standards to reduce emissions,
also with a view on adaptation. Actual enforcement of existing environmental regulation needs to be
ensured.
6.4.
Agriculture and Food Security
Medium to Long Term Actions
Assess the possibility for creating better food security through the expansion of local agricultural
production and reducing food imports. A fundamental solution to the high food prices and high levels of
food imports in The Bahamas is to increase local food production and consumption. Prime Minister of The
Bahamas, Mr. Hubert Ingraham, in his March 2011 address to the Third National Agribusiness Expo,
acknowledged the importance of encouraging urban households to take greater responsibility for their
food choices.
4
Business arrangements which alternately reward (bonus) or penalise (malus) for specific actions.
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Records from The Bahamas Ministry of Agriculture and Marine Resources indicate that there are
substantial acreages of arable land available for food production, in excess of 245,737 acres. Of these
parcels, 134,000 acres are located in Andros; 61,737 acres in Abaco; and 30,000 acres in Grand Bahama.
Some of this land is still untapped, or has fallen out of production.
CARIBSAVE recommends two projects for improving food security and mitigating against climate change
impacts in The Bahamas. The first programme feeds into the current national drive to invigorate farm
activities on the Family Islands and the need to make use of agricultural lands that are currently lying
fallow. Prior research on Bahamas’ top thirty crops (Minns, 2010) can be utilised as a basis for setting up
demonstration farms on the outer islands. The main objective here is to identify which crops are suited for
cultivation on the different types of islands (coppice vs. pine), and increase medium to large scale
commercial production in the outer islands for supply to the hotel sector and for domestic consumption.
Farmers with small agricultural holdings with a desire to expand, and new agripreneurs who have recently
taken advantage of the land lease incentives stand to benefit from this initiative. The expected results are
increased food production, increased local consumption, and a measured decrease in the quantity of food
imported. This project will require participation and support from key government agencies, including the
Department of Agriculture in the Ministry of Agriculture and Marine Resources.
Develop a structured programme to help farmers’ associations diversify and strengthen their agricultural
practices for climate change adaptation and mitigation. Agricultural initiatives that are suited to climate
change mitigation so far appear to be on an individual basis and somewhat fragmented due to geographical
limitations. The objective here is to target organised groups of farmers on all the islands, share best
practices in local agriculture, and introduce them to new agro-technology. To this end, a series of climate
change workshops, in addition to the development of pilot projects on agricultural mitigation activities for
each farmers’ group, can help to promote sustainable agricultural practices. Technical assistance from FAO,
IICA and The Bahamas Ministry of Agriculture and Marine Resources will be needed to help build
technological and professional capacity within these farmers’ organisations.
Another recommendation is a “Youth and Technology in Agriculture” project. The aim of this programme is
to encourage youth involvement in adaptive agriculture by harnessing their knowledge and affinity for new
technologies to support sustainable farming. One aspect of this project is the revision and revival of the
agriculture curriculum in schools and introduction of modules that show students how to use Geographic
Information Systems (GIS), Global Positioning Systems (GPS) and Remote Sensing to provide solutions to
agriculture. The idea is to make the agriculture attractive in the eyes of the younger generation and
encourage entrepreneurship and innovation to tackle the issue of food security. Another aspect of this
program should involve greenhouse technology which has stimulated youth interest and agripreneurship in
other OECS countries.
6.5.
Human Health
Medium Term Actions
Build up a supply of public health resources for the surveillance, prevention and control of Vector Borne
Diseases, and investigate the feasibility of adopting the Integrated Vector Management (IVM)
Programme approach developed by WHO: Gubler, (2002) has stated that the resurgence of diseases, and
particularly vector borne diseases has been “compounded by complacency about infectious diseases in
general and vector-borne diseases in particular, and a lack of public health resources for research,
surveillance, prevention, and control programs”. Vector borne diseases of greater concern that have a
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climate change signal in The Bahamas include Dengue Fever and Malaria. The IVM Programme may prove
to be a useful tool for The Bahamas, and is built on five components (WHO, 2007):
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Advocacy, social mobilisation and legislation
Collaboration within the health sector and with other sectors
Integrated approach
Evidence-based decision-making
Capacity-building
The Caribbean region, as part of the WHO Region of the Americas has the potential to chart a course that
includes IVM for diseases that have a climate change signal in particular. For The Bahamas specifically, the
Department for Environmental Health would be the key player in the IVM programme. However, limited
human capacity and attention to evaluation are two major challenges that hamper the effective utilisation
of IVM across the region, and would need to be addressed in order to advance any IVM programme.
Exploring the possibility of establishing Early Disease Warning Systems: Early Disease Warning Systems
that considers temperature signatures would be helpful, however these must be validated (Amarakoonet
al., 2006) and be site-specific (Ebi et al., 2006). Other signatures could be further researched such as the
use of the pre-seasonal treatment treatment for mosquito and dengue control (Chadee, 2009). This can be
a practical way to execute effective disease control (Ebi et al., 2006). This is in keeping with The Bahamas
National Policy for the Adaptation to Climate change policy objective “Explore and access mitigation and
adaptation technologies currently under development, and yet to be developed, to meet the development
objectives of The Bahamas” (NCCC-BEST, 2005).
The reduction of morbidity and mortality as a result of physical injuries during natural disasters can be
curbed through strengthening of existing disaster prevention measures. (See also Comprehensive Disaster
Management Recommendations). Also of importance is post-disaster sanitation to curb the spread of foodand water-borne diseases as infrastructure that affects utilities is damaged, e.g. water supply in periods
when it is most needed. These are relevant in the context of tourism because the perception of visiting a
safe country is important to tourists, so attempts at achieving this will not only be valuable to the
population but also to the tourism sector.
6.6.
Marine and Terrestrial Biodiversity and Fisheries
Medium Term Actions
Increase simultaneous beach protection activities for improved results on the reduction of erosion
damages. A number of factors have been identified as contributors to beach erosion; therefore combating
the issue requires a comprehensive approach. The following recommendations have already had success in
some islands in the Caribbean, including The Bahamas, and will be most effective if the strategies are
implemented simultaneously.



Removal of the invasive casuarina trees along beaches and replanting a coastal forest of deep
rooting sea grape and almond trees.
Dune fencing using permeable wooden fences along the seaward face of sand dunes does not
prevent erosion against high wave energy but does encourage sand dune formation.
Beach nourishment may be needed in areas of severe erosion however careful analysis must be
conducted prior to embarking on replenishment projects. The type and source of sand as well as
the timing of nourishment should be done in such a way so as to have minimum impact on the
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
nesting and feeding habits of sea turtles, shore birds and other creatures that inhabit marine and
coastal areas.
Setbacks for roads that are too close to the shoreline. Rerouting roads so that they are further
away from the shoreline will allow for natural sand accretion and protect coastal habitats and
infrastructure
Offer training and support for fishers to be better stewards of the marine environment: Research has
demonstrated that suitable management interventions (e.g. marine reserves, fisheries regulations) can
increase the resilience of coastal ecosystems to the impacts of climate change. Marine and coastal
management is more effective when it is supported and implemented by local communities and fishermen.
Support should be provided for programmes of training and education geared towards fishers and other
stakeholders who directly utilise marine resources will increase stakeholder awareness of climate change
impacts on marine and coastal resources and build their capacity to enforce fisheries regulations. In
keeping with the country’s National Climate Change policy directive to expand and strengthen coastal
monitoring and data collection fishers could also be trained for alternative livelihood as data collectors and
analysts to monitor coral reefs and fish stocks. Training fishers to be environmental stewards incorporates
the bottom-up approach to environmental management and assists in the transfer of information to other
fishers and improves their cooperation with legislation.
Long Term Actions
Conduct mangrove restoration activities to improve coastal protection. Growing appreciation for the
invaluable services mangroves offer has motivated some communities on the islands of Bimini and Great
Guana Caye to undertake mangrove replanting projects. One method of mangrove reforestation which has
proven successful in Belize is the Riley Encased Methodology (REM). The method, which uses a small PVC
pipe to protect growing saplings, is relatively inexpensive, easily implemented and causes minimal
disturbance to the environment. A Caribbean Coastal Area Management Foundation (C-CAM)
representative in Jamaica has also proposed exploring the option of using water-proofed paper tubing that
will biodegrade over time. This adaptation from the REM methodology will save a step in the process since
the piping will not have to be removed once the saplings have grown to reproductively mature trees. A
natural alternatively is the use of bamboo wave attenuators to protect developing saplings.
Reforestation of the mangrove stands will improve the health of fish nurseries and coral reefs thus
benefitting the livelihoods of those engaged in marine-based activities. Existing MPAs will also benefit from
the presence of mangrove trees which filter pollutants and provide protection to fish and crustaceans
allowing them to increase in size and abundance. Healthy mangrove forests will also provide better
protection of the coastline and to coastal communities against natural disasters such as storm surge and
hurricanes. However reforestation projects will not be effective as long as development projects that
remove and damage mangrove stands are still approved. The Bahamas therefore needs clear legislation to
protect mangroves from being cleared for development.
Use coral reef nurseries and engage fishers in planting and monitoring of transplanted corals. Scientists
have successfully grown corals in laboratories for many years. Such research has now made it possible for
corals to be transplanted and regenerated in their natural environment. Given The Bahamas experience
and commitment to using MPAs as tools for protecting marine ecosystems, coral reef nurseries may be
established within well managed protected areas. Corals may then be transplanted onto healthy reefs
within the Commonwealth. With further research it may be possible for coral to be transplanted around
other islands in the Caribbean that do not have MPAs that are sufficiently managed to feasibly establish
coral nurseries.
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Increase in coral cover will increase habitat for fish providing benefits to both the fisheries and tourism
industries. Resilient reefs will better withstand climate change impacts and provide better protection to
coastlines from storm surge. By engaging fishers and volunteers from communities will fulfil two objectives:
increasing education and awareness, and gaining public participation.
6.7. Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Impacts on Coastal Infrastructure
and Settlements
Short Term Actions
Conduct a thorough cost-benefit analysis of coastal protection at a local level. Cost-benefit analysis of
coastal protection will be informed by the estimated cost of damage to specific infrastructure and
properties. The specific location of infrastructure is important for estimating impacts to a high level of
fidelity. Similarly, property values are highly dependent on exact location – for example in some areas the
most expensive property values may be on the coast, whereas in others they may be located on a hillside.
A detailed analysis of property prices by location is required as part of local level studies. The Government
of Bahamas, local resort owners and local building authorities are encouraged to collaborate with members
of the research community to help develop a cost benefit analysis of coastal protection. In addition to
refining estimates of costs to rebuild infrastructure (particularly in areas with high-density coastal
development), there is an important need to investigate the response of international tourists and the
private sector to the impacts of coastal erosion, coral degradation and to test adaptation strategies in the
tourism sector. By completing a cost-benefit analysis, decision makers will able to identify the best
adaptation options to adopt and can begin to move forward in reducing the vulnerability of settlements
and infrastructures in vulnerable areas.
Medium Term Actions
Complete a focused analysis of the vulnerability of secondary and tertiary economies to SLR and
determine the economic impacts of these damages for the tourism sector. Tourism infrastructure is
particularly vulnerable in The Bahamas. With tourism contributing a large proportion to the national
economy, the capacity of the Bahamian economy to absorb and recover from proportionately higher
economic losses in that sector is expected to be low. Determining the secondary and tertiary economic
impacts of damages to the tourism sector and possible adaptation strategies should be a priority for future
research. This will enable the identification of the degree to which the economy of The Bahamas and its
citizens are economically and socially vulnerable to SLR. In the event that this study finds tourism to be
economically vulnerable to the impacts of SLR, then action plans could be developed to diversify the
economy and provide training and tools to help workers transition to other sectors that may be less
vulnerable.
Assess the adaptive capacity of the tourism sector to SLR. Tourism is the single most important sector in
The Bahamas. Given the close proximity of the tourism infrastructure to the coast, it is highly dependent on
the attractiveness of the natural coastal environment, which has been shown to be vulnerable to SLR. More
detailed analysis of the impacts of SLR for major tourism resorts, critical beach assets and supporting
infrastructure (e.g., transportation) is needed to accurately assess the implications for inundation and
erosion protection. A necessary part of this evaluation is to identify the land that can be used for tourism
infrastructure and future development under a managed retreat response to SLR.
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Long Term Actions
Review and develop policies and legal framework to support coordinated retreat from high-risk coastal
areas. The government of The Bahamas must review existing policy and legal frameworks to assess the
responsibilities of the state and landowners for the decommissioning of coastal properties damaged by the
impacts of SLR. The government should also examine the utilisation of adaptive development permits that
will allow development based on current understanding of SLR, but stipulate the conditions for longer-term
coastal retreat if sea level increases to a specified level. Current coastal set-back regulations need to be
reassessed in light of new SLR projections to ensure that new developments are not built in vulnerable
coastal areas.
6.8.
Comprehensive Natural Disaster Management
Short Term Actions
Conduct capacity building and technical training programs for NEMA employees so that the current
technical deficiencies can be remedied and skills gained. The need for training on Hazard Impact
Assessment and post-disaster Damage and Needs Assessment was revealed during this research. To
achieve CDEMA’s goals under the Comprehensive Disaster Management Strategy and Plan, the
prioritisation of technical training within the Participating States’ disaster offices should also be a priority.
The RNAT team and the CARICOM Disaster Response Unit (CDRU) have excellent technical expertise within
the military but those teams are only required with major disasters and often leave before all affected
communities are assessed. Therefore, this recommendation is to build capacity at the local and national
level. In this way, NEMA and their Disaster Management Committee (DMC) can manage risks better and
also have a better understanding of the vulnerability in the communities across The Bahamas.
Medium Term Actions
Develop response capacities and facilities in each of the more populated islands. During a hurricane or
tropical storm transport between islands may not be safe. Because of the nature of The Bahamas, being an
archipelago of multiple inhabited islands, there must be a capacity to respond within individual households
on all islands and NEMA should have an office with personnel in the more populated islands so that
resources and assistance can reach affected persons in good time. Disaster and emergency management
should be delegated to individual islands with a focus on protection of ports since resources coming from
larger islands or less impacted islands will most likely arrive via sea transport. Capacity building activities
must be geared towards NEMA staff, as well as community-level programmes that will provide the
household knowledge and resources required to minimise impacts and increase resilience to natural
hazards.
Create a policy for coastal protection and environmental buffer zones, including an official EIA
mechanism, that will ensure lasting safety and conservation of vulnerable area. The work that is being
carried out on ICZM and LUPAP should be continued and implemented with a policy developed that
addresses the potential for managed retreat and the development of buffer zones in those areas that are
particularly vulnerable. Such a policy should at a minimum address the set-back policy for any new
developments or re-builds with the idea that post-impact reconstruction ‘builds back better’. This has
already been identified as a necessary step in the National Climate Change Policy (NCCC-BEST, 2005), but it
must be carried forward into a document that is enforceable. Wherever possible the tourism product
should be diversified inland to help protect the natural resources (sun, sea and sand) that make up the
tourism package. There is also a need for careful protection and preservation of the natural systems that
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act as buffers to the impacts of climate change such as coral reefs, mangroves and sea grass beds. Once the
policies and plans are in place, these requirements could be satisfactorily addressed under a welldeveloped EIA system with well-defined guidelines.
Update building regulations and hire building inspectors, in permanent positions, with the responsibility
of reviewing all construction on the islands. Across the Caribbean housing structures are highly vulnerable
to damages from disasters such as hurricanes and tropical storms. A regional standard on building materials
and practices would help to reduce losses to individual families and also take some of the pressure off of
shelters because this would mean that some people would be able to stay in their own homes during
emergencies. The Bahamas should certainly continue to assist with the development of a regional code,
however, since national regulations or building codes do exist, the problem is actually one of enforcement.
NEMA, along with the Ministry of Housing and the Ministry of Works and Transport must collaborate to
conduct a needs assessment with the objective of identifying financial resource availability, personnel
requirements that would improve enforcement and physical and technical requirements for hiring more
building inspectors.
Review the NEMAs ESF format for disaster response to ensure that the plan is broadened to more
adequately address CDM and risk reduction: It has been acknowledge that “[t]here is a need for more
systematic approach regarding disaster management including the enhancement of the country’s response
mechanism and emergency management institutional arrangement, namely the National Emergency
Management Agency (NEMA)” (Cuervo, et al., 2005). NEMA must review their Disaster Management Plan
to ensure that strong response is also accompanied by efforts at disaster prevention and vulnerability
reduction across all sectors and within communities. Work started under the Natural Risks Preventive
Management Programme should be resumed to also deal with the technical deficiencies identified within
NEMA.
6.9.
Community Livelihoods, Gender, Poverty and Development
Strategies are intended to contribute to development objectives (including poverty reduction) at all levels
within the country, based on the Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity assessments. More specifically, the
strategies will address the following:
1. promotion of climate-resilient livelihoods strategies and capacity building for adaptive capacity
and action planning;
2. disaster risk reduction strategies to reduce the effects of climate-related impacts, particularly on
vulnerable households and tourism-related livelihoods;
3. capacity development for local civil society and governmental institutions so that they can provide
better support to communities, households and individuals in their adaptation efforts; and
4. advocacy and social mobilisation to address the underlying causes of vulnerability, such as poor
governance, lack of control over resources, or limited access to basic services.
Collaboration with and amongst the existing agencies in The Bahamas working in these areas will be
necessary for successful implementation.
Medium Term Actions
Address gaps in existing policies to protect natural resources: this can be effectively done through
behavioural changes in those who use natural resources. Natural resources are often destroyed for a
change in land-use or through over-exploitation for necessary purposes. Awareness of their role and of
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alternative courses of action (or livelihoods) can effect changes that support existing policies. More
specifically, actions can include:


awareness and capacity building in alternative (livelihood) strategies for those persons who use or
destroy natural resources
advocacy targeted at the relevant government agencies to enforce laws that prevent large-scale
destruction of natural systems prior to large developments as well as after construction.
Build capacity to strengthen the resilience of livelihoods in coastal communities to climate change: this
should be done by using the proven approach of Action Research where selected individuals gain practical
knowledge through first‐hand experience and personal exchanges. This type of initiative is best
implemented regionally. Specific activities include:




establishment of Action Learning groups from selected communities
sharing lessons and providing opportunities to learn how linkages between micro-, small and
medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) provide effective adaptation to climate change, can expand
markets and promote business sustainability, through:
o workshops
o knowledge networks
analysing and addressing constraints to adaptation
Training for alternative livelihoods and value‐added products
Facilitate climate-resilient construction by:


Revision and enforcement of building codes
Building capacity and removing barriers to action for communities to build smart and “build back
better” after properties have been damaged.
Reducing dependency on external food supplies: Greater promotion of more community gardens,
particularly for the poor that live in urban centres and assessing the feasibility of roof-top gardens and
community plots could help to improve the food supply, and provide an ongoing source of food especially
for low-income families. Poorer families can then have more funds available to use otherwise.
Build structures to protect legally established properties against flooding, in those areas that are poorly
located in or near to natural water courses. Caution is needed to ensure that potentially dangerous
waterflows are not redirected to other properties. Water catchment and storage facilities should be
included in this strategy.
Encourage and facilitate participatory process amongst various stakeholder groups and resource users:
There needs to be greater collaboration and networking between organisations and groups for human and
technical resource efficiency; and to create opportunities for stakeholders to work together to resolve issue
regarding resource use and impacts.
Augment national awareness efforts during hurricane season: not all residents take hurricane warnings
seriously and consequently can endanger themselves, as well as others who may need to rescue them.
Establishing why warnings are sometimes ignored can assist in developing strategies to ensure the safety of
vulnerable communities (and of those within the community with specific vulnerabilities). Accordingly,
awareness and outreach efforts can be designed to enhance the effectiveness of the already established
national early warning system.
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7. CONCLUSION
7.1.
Climate Modelling
Recent and future changes in climate in The Bahamas have been explored using a combination of
observations and climate model projections. Whilst this information can provide us with some very useful
indications of the changes to the characteristics of regional climate that we might expect under a warmer
global climate, we must interpret this information with due attention to its limitations.

Limited spatial and temporal coverage restricts the deductions we can make regarding the changes
that have already occurred. Those trends that might be inferred from a relatively short
observational record may not be representative of a longer term trend, particularly where interannual or multi-year variability is high. Gridded datasets, from which we make our estimates of
country-scale observed changes, are particularly sparse in their coverage over much of the
Caribbean, because spatial averages draw on data from only a very small number of local stations
combined with information from more remote stations.

Whilst climate models have demonstrable skill in reproducing the large-scale characteristics of the
global climate dynamics, there remain substantial deficiencies that arise from limitations in
resolution imposed by available computing power, and deficiencies in scientific understanding of
some processes. Uncertainty margins increase as we move from continental/regional scale to the
local scale as we have in these studies. The limitations of climate models have been discussed in
the context of tropical storms/hurricanes, and SLR in the earlier sections of this report. Other key
deficiencies in climate models that will also have implications for this work include:

Difficulties in reproducing the characteristics of the El Niño – Southern Oscillation which
exerts an influence of the inter-annual and multi-year variability in climate in the
Caribbean, and on the occurrence of tropical storm and hurricanes.

Deficiencies in reliably simulating tropical precipitation, particularly the position of the
Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) which drives the seasonal rainfalls in the tropics.

Limited spatial resolution restricts the representation of many of the smaller Caribbean
Islands, even in the relatively high resolution Regional Climate Models.
We use a combination of GCM and RCM projections in the investigations of climate change for a country
and at a destination in order to make use of the information about uncertainty that we can gain from a
multi-model ensemble together with the higher-resolution simulations that are only currently available
from two sets of model simulations. Further information about model uncertainty at the local level might
be drawn if additional regional model simulations based on a range of differing GCMs and RCMs were
generated for the Caribbean region in the future.
7.2.
Water Quality and Availability
Throughout The Bahamas, freshwater is sourced mainly from subterranean freshwater lenses that rest over
brackish and saline waters (Buchan, 2000). These shallow karstic limestone aquifers are close to the land
surface at a depth of only 1.5 metres (BEST, 2001), and their distribution varies according to factors
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including island size, shape, climate and geology (Buchan, 2000). Groundwater resources are of variable
salinity from completely fresh to brackish, saline or hypersaline (Buchan, 2000). Freshwater is considered
scarce with 66 m3/capita/year and ranked 177 out of 180 countries by the FAO in 2002 with respect to its
water availability (USACE, 2004). The government stipulated water provider in The Bahamas is the Water
and Sewerage Corporation (WSC). However, the WSC supplies water to just 30% of water to consumers, as
much as 55% of which has been tagged as non-revenue water. This low rate of supply is due to private
operators and the abstraction of water from private wells by consumers such as tourist developments
(Spencer et al., 2010). However, since there is a limited availability of groundwater and freshwater lenses
are shallow, this unregulated abstraction could have a significant impact on water sustainability as well as
environmental and health consequences (Spencer et al., 2010).
Water use from the tourism sector is usually higher than that for local demand. To meet water requirement
needs, desalination is utilised within the tourism sector, however, such technology is more expensive. This
is adapted to partially through the use of slightly saline groundwater (Buchan, 2000). Research by Edwards
(2004) found that hotels in The Bahamas generally lack in sustainable water management practices, with
only 42% having a towel and linen reuse programme in place, 37% utilising gray water, 32% encouraging
guests to conserve water and 26% utilising pipes with flow restrictors.
The shallow freshwater aquifer lenses in The Bahamas are threatened by anthropogenic pollution which
includes the increased use of septic tanks, increased contamination from hazardous chemicals and
agricultural products, increased leachates from landfills and increased release of industrial wastes (BEST,
2005). Storm surges and canalisation for development of residential plots have also given rise to
salinisation issues which threaten freshwater supplies. SLR and storm surges as a result of more extreme
weather events particulary hurricanes can lead to saline intrusion of freshwater lenses. Storm surges from
past hurricanes have already caused extensive damage to aquifers in The Bahamas, with contamination
from seawater, sewage, pesticides and petroleum products (USACE, 2004). In addition, tourism has
increased problems through both increased groundwater abstraction and increased generation of sewage
(Buchan, 2000).
The freshwater resources of The Bahamas are particularly vulnerable because more than 80% of the land
area is just one meter or less above sea level (BEST, 2001). Saltwater lenses on the islands are expected to
shrink as a result of decreased precipitation, SLR and indiscriminate abstraction. The freshwater lenses in
The Bahamas are already very vulnerable because more than 90% rest within 1.5 m from the surface of the
land (WSC, 2011) and if projected SLR of 1.5 m does occur, roughly 80% of The Bahamas’ land mass may
become temporarily or permanently reclaimed by the sea (WSC, 2011). In addition, The Bahamas is
vulnerable to flooding from storm events, which can affect water quality and have implications for
sanitation and cause serious soil erosion. Current development patterns also make The Bahamas vulnerable
and sea walls can result in trapped water which contributes to flooding (ICFC, 2002) and makes
groundwater contamination more likely (Buchan, 2000; ICFC, 2002).
7.3.
Energy Supply and Distribution
There can be little doubt that tourism is an important and growing energy-consuming sector in the
Caribbean. If this growth continues, vulnerabilities associated with higher energy prices as well as global
climate policy will grow concomitantly. As a reminder, The Bahamas already spend in excess of Bahamas $
1 billion on fuel imports, i.e. more than 10% of GDP, while energy consumption is anticipated to increase by
8% per year up to 2013.
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Any Caribbean nation’s ambition should thus be to reduce its energy use and to increasingly use renewable
energy produced in the region. In practice, this appears to be hampered by the lack of detailed databases
on energy use by sub-sectors, which is a precondition for restructuring energy systems. To this end, Francis
et al. (2007: 1231) suggest that:
Finally, given the absence of a more detailed database on energy consumption and GDP in
Haiti, Barbados, and Trinidad and Tobago, further research can be directed at two
important issues. First, with wider data on energy consumption and GDP (total and
sectoral), a decomposition analysis could be undertaken, which can add value by
identifying the main drivers, a useful approach to the formulation of effective policies.
While an energy and emissions database would thus be paramount to the understanding, monitoring and
strategic reduction of greenhouse gases, it also appears clear that energy demand in The Bahamas could be
substantially reduced at no cost, simply because the tourism sector in particular is wasteful of energy.
Furthermore, technological options to develop renewable energy sources exist, and can be backed up
financially by involving carbon markets as well as voluntary payments by tourists. In order to move the
tourism sector forward to make use of these potentials, it appears essential that policy frameworks
focusing on regulation, market-based instruments and incentives be implemented.
7.4.
Agriculture and Food Security
The potential for climate change adaptation and mitigation in Bahamian agriculture hinges on the following
factors:
 Improved crop and land management policy and practice to increase food production
 The increased use of agro-technology at the farm level to grow crops under varying climatic
conditions, and to suit the topography of the islands (coppice vs. pine)
 The development of dedicated crops for domestic use and for supply to the hotel sector
The Bahamas Government has begun to create an enabling environment for climate change mitigation
through its recently adopted (2010) five-year strategic plan for the agriculture and fisheries sectors. The
proposed scheme requires substantial investments and information to change existing unsustainable
farming methods and to reduce food insecurity. The key is to support links between policy makers,
scientists and technicians in the field of climate change and agriculture, and local farmers directly involved
in food production.
7.5.
Human Health
The Bahamas has unique challenges to face in its health sector and its associated vulnerability due to its
composition of numerous islands and the proximity to and economic dependence on the US, perhaps and
also its associated attractiveness to immigrants seeking to enter the US. To sustain The Bahamian economy
the tourism industry, which generates the greatest revenues and foreign exchange, health will play a very
important role in ensuring The Bahamas remains a competitive tourist destination. There the potential
impacts of climate change should be determined and measures to adapt should be devised and
implemented.
From the combined assessment of hard data and grey data reviewed in the vulnerability and adaptive
capacity sections of this report it is very difficult to make definitive statements about the Health Sector of
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The Bahamas. However, the data suggests a number of trends which include that the population is
vulnerable in a number of ways, most notably to weather related morbidity and mortality and the diseases,
sanitation and potable and accessible water supply, the spread of food- and water- borne illnesses, drought
related issues and the threats associated with influx of high volumes of immigrants and tourists. It is further
evident that these factors impact on multiple sectors, such as the tourism, water and agricultural sectors.
With the establishment of a research culture and validation of data from the various components of the
Health Sector, these will pave the way for a sound platform from which to inform policy and planning for
the future as the climate changes.
7.6.
Marine and Terrestrial Biodiversity and Fisheries
The small and low-lying islands and cays of The Bahamas make it very vulnerable to the impacts of climate
change. The local population and thriving tourism industry are reliant on limited natural resources that are
already suffering from the effects of coastal erosion, salt water intrusion and habitat fragmentation.
Further losses of biodiversity and ecosystem function caused by climate change and SLR will place
additional strain on the tourism dependent economy and on the livelihoods of its inhabitants.
Although the islands’ coral reefs are healthier than they are in other parts of the Caribbean, they still face
pressure from over-fishing and coastal degradation. Mangroves, beaches and forests are also negatively
impacted by coastal development and other human activities. A holistic approach to climate change
adaption with respects to biodiversity will involve examining the linkages between The Bahamas’ marine
and terrestrial ecosystems. Adaptation strategies will be most effective if an ecosystem based approach is
used as opposed to the protection individual species of flora and fauna.
The Bahamas is to be commended for the efforts made in policy and strategy development with regards to
managing its environment. The government has developed policies and, in collaboration with other
agencies, has begun to implement strategies towards monitoring and building the resilience of its
biodiversity to climate change impacts. It is essential that polices are put into action quickly as climate
inertia means those factors that bring about SLR, higher SSTs and increased storm intensity are already in
place and accelerating. The country’s experience in managing its National Park systems, its commitment to
increasing protected areas and the relative health of its reefs, puts The Bahamas in a position to serve as a
model to assist other islands in the region to build climate change resilience. The strategies recommended
in this document are aimed at supporting current activities by enhancing ecosystem health as well as
building capacity through education and empowerment of natural resource users to serve as
environmental stewards.
7.7. Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Impacts on Coastal Infrastructure
and Settlements
With its high-density development along the coast and reliance on coastal resources, the tourism sector in
The Bahamas is vulnerable to climate change and SLR. Tourism, a very large and important sector of the
economy, is also the key activity taking place in the island’s coastal areas. Given the importance of tourism,
The Bahamas will be particularly affected with annual costs as a direct result of SLR. If action is not taken to
protect the coastlines of The Bahamas, the current and projected vulnerabilities of the tourism sector to
SLR, including coastal inundation and increased beach erosion, will result in significant economic losses for
the country and its people. Adaptations to minimise the vulnerabilities of The Bahamas will require
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revisions to development plans and major investment and policy decisions. These considerations must be
based on the best available information regarding the specific coastal infrastructure and ecosystem
resources along the coast, in addition to the resulting economic and non-market impacts. Decisions
regarding where retreat policies should be implemented versus what should be protected needs to be a
priority if The Bahamas is to help curb development in vulnerable areas and protect vulnerable tourism
assets.
The government of The Bahamas needs to implement policies to regulate coastal development and to
identify and inventory vulnerabilities of coastal lands and infrastructure to weather and climate related
hazards. This work needs to be advanced to include in greater detail the implications of and application of
climate change adaptation measures and strategies, to ensure that Bahamian coastal resources and
infrastructure do not suffer from the consequences of potential increased SLR. Continued development and
an increasing reliance on the tourism sector will only magnify the vulnerabilities faced, placing additional
assets and people at risk, while simultaneously raising the damage estimates and the costs to protect the
coastline. It is vital to recognise the vulnerabilities from current SLR and SLR-induced erosion, as well as to
anticipate and prepare for future SLR implications. There is an urgent need for serious, comprehensive and
urgent action to be taken to address the challenges of adapting to SLR in The Bahamas.
7.8.
Comprehensive Natural Disaster Management
The Bahamas is a diverse country in terms of its geographic size and the socio-economics of its population.
Its islands are exposed to numerous natural hazards that have the potential to create disasters. In recent
years, storm systems have affected the islands and their populations but have not created significant
impacts since the very damaging 2004 hurricane season. Hurricanes Charley, Frances and Jeanne reminded
Bahamians of how vulnerable they are to hurricanes, but also how much of their economy, especially
tourism, is also at risk of great losses from natural hazards. Lessons learned in those hurricanes have
translated to positive vulnerability reduction and preparedness actions.
The Bahamas has recently made good progress toward the creation of a disaster management system that
reduces vulnerabilities and better prepares individuals, communities and the public and private sector to
deal with hazard impacts. Mostly notably is the creation of the new Disaster Preparedness and Response
Act in 2006. There is an acknowledgement of the need for better preparedness and risk prevention but now
further actions are needed to truly affect change in both the public and private sector. Tourism is an
important part of The Bahamas economy and therefore greater efforts need to be made in preparing and
protecting the valuable tourism infrastructure from the impacts of natural hazards, most importantly
coastal hazards such as storm surge and coastal erosion.
The similarity of threats from climate change and natural hazards present a strong case for the
improvement of resilience and preparedness activities. In The Bahamas this means creating an integrated
system to ensure the less populous islands so that persons can sustain themselves until further help from
larger islands can reach them. By improving the capacity of the NEMA staff and within the communities
across the archipelago disaster preparedness will be enhanced and resilience to natural hazard impacts will
be achieved.
179
7.9.
Community Livelihoods, Gender, Poverty and Development
It is well documented, that women and men are differently affected by the effects of climate variability and
change. Reasons include the different responsibilities men and women assume in relation to care work,
income generating work, as well as their different levels of dependency on natural resources, knowledge
and capacities to cope with the effects because of differences in the access to education and information
systems.
Research findings indicate that community residents agree that men and women are affected differently by
weather-induced hazards and disasters, noting that the differences are most obvious before and after the
event. Additionally, poorer residents and depleted environments are hit the hardest by disasters because
of the debilitating combination of existing vulnerabilities, risks and the degree of impact by events or
hazards; whereas stronger communities and balanced ecosystems tend to be more resilient(Buvinic, Vega,
Bertrand, Urban, Grynspan, & Truitt, 1999).
Social roles and responsibilities of women and men lead to different degrees of dependency on the natural
environment. The data show that women are more engaged in household subsistence activities, thus
degradation of forests, watersheds and agricultural land can have a severe effect on their ability to perform
the daily household maintenance tasks, thereby threatening the livelihood of their households5 and placing
additional burdens on women. The use of a ‘gender lens’ can help to better understand social processes,
thereby ensuring that adaptation projects consider gendered differences and do not inadvertently
perpetuate inequality.
5
Gender, Climate Change and Adaptation: www.uneca.org/acpc/resources/Gender-and.../Roehr_Gender _climate.pdf
180
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