“WINNING HEARTS AND MINDS” HISTORICAL ORIGINS OF THE CONCEPT AND ITS CURRENT IMPLEMENTATION IN AFGHANISTAN The Cahiers de la Recherche doctrinale (The Doctrine Research Journal) are a key contribution to the French Army research on the present major operational issues. The articles of this journal are written up by the Military History Research Office of the Research and Lessons Learnt Department (Forces Employment Doctrine Center/CDEF). They are drawn up from real events considered from an historical angle, and they aim at providing unconventional approach and analysis elements as a supplement to conventional Lessons Learnt process. Their standards are the ones required by university publications in human sciences regarding strict methodology codes and freedom of research, and they are to be considered neither as official reports nor as staff documents. “WINNING HEARTS AND MINDS” HISTORICAL ORIGINS OF THE CONCEPT AND ITS CURRENT IMPLEMENTATION IN AFGHANISTAN This study was directed by Lieutenant Bertrand Valeyre (Reserve) of the Research Branch of the CDEF Research and Lessons Learned Division. Forces Employment Doctrine Center: 821 753 81 65 – Tel.: (+33) 01 44 42 81 65 – Fax: 01 44 42 44 66 MINISTÈRE DE LA DÉFENSE ET DES ANCIENS COMBATTANTS Paris, le 15 juin 2010 N° 500480/DEF/CDEF/DREX/BR “Winning hearts and minds” has become rather a familiar slogan since 2009 when American forces began rallying behind it in Afghanistan. It is seen as the cornerstone of a new operational culture aimed at encouraging the Afghan population to favor the coalition’s cause. This phrase, however, is far from new; it is rooted in classical philosophy and in Christian doctrine, particularly among Anglo-Saxon Protestants. As time passed, the phrase became progressively secularized and crossed over into political and military vocabulary. Defining what lies at the heart of this concept and its profound implications has been the subject of thorough studies by various military thinkers, from Lyautey to McChrystal, and from Templer to Galula. In the past half century, British, French and American armed forces have all been tasked with conducting “pacification” or “counterinsurgency” operations in extremely hostile environments. How did they actually go about implementing this concept? Has successfully “winning hearts and minds” indeed been the true cornerstone of successful crisis resolutions? At the present, particularly in the United States, these questions are wide open for debate. This doctrinal paper will attempt to answer these questions by comparing recent British, French and American experiences. The concept of “winning hearts and minds” has achieved successes and suffered setbacks, but has always survived. The British successfully implemented it in Malaya in the 1950s and it enjoyed some success with the French in Algeria, though it became discredited after the American experience in the Vietnam War. It has since regained interest this past decade with the conflict in Iraq and operations in Afghanistan. Today, the local population is at the center of the coalition strategy in the Afghan theater of operations. Hope for the rapid normalization of this ever-hardening conflict hinges on this strategy and its highly comprehensive approach. “Winning hearts and minds” is set to remain the slogan that coalition forces rally behind in the coming months. Forces Employment Doctrine Center: 821 753 81 65 – Tel.: (+33) 01 44 42 81 65 – Fax: 01 44 42 44 66 CONTENTS CONTENTS ObSERvATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 PART 1 – A CONCEPT DEvELOPED AND CLAIMED bY THE bRITISH . . . . . . . . . 21 ChApTER I – ThE MALAyAN EMERgENCy (1948-1960): A MODEL OF SuCCESSFuL COuNTERINSuRgENCy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 1.1 – The Initial Errings of Repression (1848-1950) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 1.2 – The Experimental Strategy Shift of 1951 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 1.3 – The Positive Results of the Flexible and Population-Centric Approach (1952-1960) . . . . . . . . . . 25 ChApTER II – A REpRODuCIBLE SuCCESS? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 2.1 – The Lessons Learned by Robert Thompson (Good Governance and Reasoned Use of Force) . . . 27 2.2 – The Lessons Learned by Major General Sir Frank Kitson (Counterinfluence and Crowd Control) . 29 2.3 – The Major Objections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 ChApTER III – A COMpONENT OF BRITISh LAND FORCES EMpLOyMENT DOCTRINE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 3.1 – The War “Among the People”, According to General Sir Rupert Smith . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 3.2 – The Contribution of the Army to Security and Stabilization Operations (JPD 3-40) . . . . . . . . . . . 34 3.3 – The Mitigated Experiment in the Afghan Theater of Operations (Helmand Province: 2006-2009) . . 35 PART 2 – AN APPROACH THAT FINDS COMMON GROUND WITH FRENCH EXPERIENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 ChApTER I – ThE LEgACy OF MARShALS gALLIENI AND LyAuTEy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 1.1 – The Idea of “Pacification” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 1.2 – The Principle of “Gradual Penetration” or “Oil Spot” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 1.3 – The Concept of “Dissuasive Pressure” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 7 ChApTER II – ThE pOpuLATION AS ThE MAIN STAkE IN ThE DOCTRINE OF REVOLuTIONARy WARFARE (DRW) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 2.1 – Anti-subversive Warfare According to Roger Trinquier . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 2.2 – Counterinsurgency According to David Galula . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 2.3 – The Experience of the “Sections Administratives Spécialisées” (SAS) in Algeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 ChApTER III – COuNTERINSuRgENCy IN ThE STABILIzATION phASE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 3.1 – The Doctrinal Evolution: from the “War within the Crowd” to “Stabilization” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 3.2 – Restoring Security in the Theatre of Operations Among the Population (CREB) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 3.3 – The Civil-Military Actions of the French Forces in Afghanistan (Kapisa-Surobi area: 2009-2010) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 PART 3 – UNITED STATES: ONCE DISCREDITED, DEbATED AND REDEFINED MODEL, AGAIN PREvAILING . . . . . . . . . 59 ChApTER I – DISCREDIT IN VIETNAM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 1.1 – CORDS: A Program Overshadowed by a “Dirty War” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 1.2 – The Malaya Example Imperfectly Assimilated? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 1.3 – A Misleading Slogan? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 ChApTER II – REhABILITATION IN IRAq . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 2.1 – David Kilcullen’s New Definition of the Concept and its Use of Sociology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 2.2 – The “Petraeus Doctrine” (from FM 3-24 to the Iraq “Troop Surge”) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 2.3 – Persistent Opposition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 ChApTER III – ThE TRANSFER TO AFghANISTAN . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 3.1 – The Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRT) and the Human Terrain System (HTS) . . . . . . . . . . 73 3.2 – The McChrystal Plan (a New Operational Culture) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 3.3 – The Ongoing Strategic Debate in the United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76 PART 4 – A CHALLENGE FOR THE COALITION IN AFGHANISTAN . . . . . . . . . . . 79 ChApTER I – ThE INERTIA FACTOR: SOCIAL AND pOLITICAL ASpECTS ThAT MAkE FOREIgN INTERVENTION DIFFICuLT. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81 1.1 – The Mentality and Expectations of the Afghan People . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81 1.2 – The Mutual Misunderstandings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83 1.3 – The Failing Go-Betweens . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85 8 ChApTER II – ThE uNDERLyINg STAkE: ThE LEgITIMIzATION OF FORCE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 2.1 – The Definition of the Desired End State . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 2.2 – The Problem of Legitimacy and Proportionate Use of Force in the Current Environment . . . . . . 88 2.3 – The Question of Long Term Commitment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90 ChApTER III – ThE LACkINg pRINCIpLE OF ACTION: WINNINg “ThE hEARTS AND MINDS” OF ONE’S OWN pOpuLATION? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92 3.1 – The Influence of the “COIN Lobby” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92 3.2 – The Resilience of Public Opinion (the War of Relevance and Media Amplification) . . . . . . . . . . . 93 3.3 – The Challenges of Globalization (the Internet Revolution and Global Insurgency) . . . . . . . . . . . 95 CONCLUSION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99 ANNEXES, SOURCES AND bIbLIOGRAPHY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103 9 ObSERvATIONS 11 Observations Observation #1: “Winning hearts and minds” is the operational concept of population-centric counterinsurgency (COIN). It requires action among the civil population, focused on the population and in support of the population, particularly during the stabilization phase. The desired end state is the lasting separation of insurgents from the population, as well as the population’s support of the legitimate authority. This population-centric or indirect option differs from the enemy-focused conventional approach, which is centered on “search and destroy” operations against the enemy. Observation #2: The population-centric option does not exclude the proportional, controlled and restricted use of a form of coercion. Based on the principle that an action directly targeted at insurgents can only be effective if it has a positive impact on the population that is greater than the damage it can cause. This action needs to be planned, assessed and finally conducted on the basis of the net effect to be achieved among the local population. This results in what is commonly referred to as “rational use of force”. Observation #3: Operations aiming at “winning hearts and minds” are mainly of a political nature, and therefore part of a struggle for legitimacy. The primacy of the political authority is made clear by the fact that the civil executive is the ultimate authority in the fight against insurgency. The armed forces operate in support of the government of the country in which they are deployed. They do not aim to be liked for their efforts, for what really matters is the attitude of the local population towards its own government. Observation #4: “Winning hearts and minds” means gaining the trust of a population by gaining its respect, not by imposing values or a biased view, but by bringing them security and, above all, development capabilities. “Winning minds” means convincing a population that their lives and livelihoods are being protected, while deterring those who have not made up their minds from joining the insurgency. “Winning hearts” means meeting the needs of a community of individuals, and doing so requires their belief that their expectations will be met by the success of the COIN mission. Observation #5: While the security aspect of COIN operations aims to protect inhabitants, the development aspect requires serving the population. Well beyond mere disciplined behavior of the deployed troops who must learn to respect local customs, the development aspect requires the establishment of relationships with the local population that can lead to mutual trust. Counterinsurgents thus need to identify social networks, which, in addition to carrying influence, can establish links that can bring support to the loyalist cause. 13 Observation #6: Security and development need to be put into place simultaneously. They can only be successful if they are carried out in an environment in which a lasting dialog is maintained with the representatives of the population, as well as with NGOs and armed forces. Coordinating all administrative actions involved in civil-military stabilization activities is a precondition for success. Observation #7: Operating among the population makes it possible to gather reliable intelligence that can be used to eliminate the enemy’s political cells. This intelligence enables COIN forces to locate insurgency fighters and convince them to change their allegiance to the legitimate loyalist authority. For many additional reasons, gathering information of an ethnographic or cultural kind helps the deployed forces have a better command of the human aspects of their operational environment. Observation #8: psychological operations (PSYOPS) play a significant role in population-centric COIN. When carried out in conjunction with information operations (INFO-OpS), psychological actions are part of a comprehensive plan. Information Operations can be positive when they aim to promote loyalist force actions and negative when they attempt to discredit the opposing insurgents. They also take into account the impact of international public opinion. Observation #9: population control is another key element of “winning hearts and minds”, aimed at restricting contact between the population and the insurgency. This control is carried out according to “quadrillage” or “gridding tactics” principles. The following measures are various forms of population control: census-taking and the administrative registration of the population, including new advances in biometrics, surveillance, the imposition of curfews, restrictions of freedom of movement and requisitions. History recalls populations being gathered into protected enclaves. These protected enclaves, called “strategic hamlets”, were supposed to be permanent and economically viable social showcases, in addition to being secure locations. Forced displacements of populations, which are likely to increase the resentment among the population, are now proscribed. Observation #10: The establishment of security within geographic areas and populations is carried out according to the “oil spot” principle. This method of “gradual penetration” starts from one secure sector from which all insurgents have been driven out, and extends “pacification” outwards in concentric circles. This method is the ideal tactical course of action of a population-centric counterinsurgency. The use of the word “ideal” is quite relevant, since it is extremely difficult to bring together each and every condition required for the success of “winning hearts and minds” operations, particularly if the insurgents are deeply embedded in the population. 14 INTRODUCTION 15 Introduction “Winning hearts and minds”. This strong and martial slogan has been used many, many times. This expression, though inextricably connected to the history of asymmetric warfare, has become so debased so that it has even become a catch phrase in commercial advertising campaigns. The concept is so ambiguous and all-encompassing that many military experts, unable to agree on a common definition, would be relieved if the phrase and the wide range of hotly debated tactics that it covers were simply forgotten 1. However, the primarily American strategists of the coalition leading operations in Afghanistan, the International Security and Assistance Force (ISAF) have been implementing it since 2009, both as the basic principle for a “new operational culture” aimed at winning the trust, confidence and respect of the Afghan population, and the engine of a “population-centric” rather than “enemy-focused” COIN. Classical philosophy tells us that the combination of the mind and the heart encompasses the whole of a man. The heart is the center of his affection, desires and temporal passions. The mind is the center of his rationale, his calculating intellect and his eternity. “Winning hearts and minds” actually implies fully subjugating the bodies and souls of a group of individuals. The modern use of this concept comes from the Christian faith: religion subjugates man to God and fills “the hearts and minds” of faithful believers. This dedication to God, this enthusiasm and emotional respect that is recalled in Paul’s Epistle to the Philippians 2 was considered by Anglo-Saxon protestant thinkers when they tried to find a way to introduce it into the political environment. The expression then became secularized and developed a strong attachment to the liberal democratic order. In a letter to a Baltimore newspaper in 1818, John Adams, a founding father and the second president of the United States of America, described the French Revolution as an event that was “in the minds and hearts of the people; a change in their religious sentiments of their duties and obligations”. Later, when he was engaged in the political battle of the “New Deal”, the 32nd president of the United States, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, used the phrase “hearts and minds” on several occasions to rally the American nation behind the creation of the welfare state 3. Later the struggle for “hearts and minds” moved from inspired speeches to actual battlefields where it came under fire. The “militarization” of the concept dates back to June 1952, a key moment in the “Emergency” declared by the British in Malaya. For the first time, the phrase referred to the methods and objectives of a population-centric counterinsurgency operation. According to General Sir gerald Templer, High Commissioner and Commander in Chief of the British forces in Malaya, “the answer [to defeating the insurgents] lies in the minds and hearts of the population”. 1 2 3 FD: Gagner les cœurs et les esprits, une devise à revoir ? (Winning hearts and minds: a motto to be reconsidered?) AgoraVox – Le média citoyen, March 19th, 2008. “And the peace of God, which transcends all understanding, will guard your hearts and your minds in Christ Jesus.” (Philippians 4:7) It is interesting to note that this is about divine peace, not about war. In an address in 1934 President Roosevelt said: “In these days it means to me a union not only of the states, but a union of the hearts and minds of the people in all the states and their many interests and purposes, devoted with unity to the human welfare of our country”. 17 Introduction Nevertheless, according to researcher Thomas Mockaitis, the concept may have appeared earlier in the 1920s and 30s during British ‘imperial policing’ operations, at the initiative of officers who fought against the Pashtun rebels of the North-Western Frontier Province (NWFP) of the Indian Empire 4. In that case, the modus operandi promoted by US General Stanley McChrystal in 2009 in Afghanistan and Pakistan would simply be resuscitating it in the geographical and human environment where it was born. The concept that comes closest to “winning hearts and minds” on the French side is “pacification” and the principle of the “oil spot”, implemented in the French colonies by governors-general gallieni and Lyautey. Mao Zedong. For the Western servicemembers who fought against armed insurgencies in the post-WWII decolonization wars, the rhetoric of “winning hearts and minds” was considered as the equivalent response, at least in terms of impact and efficiency, to the famous phrase of Mao zedong (18931976), a theorist of the “popular war”, who believed that the communist guerrilla fighter had to move within the population like “a fish in the water”. Later, “driving the water out”, “siphoning the bowl”, and “draining the swamp” became the keywords of COIN. Also, action can be “taken against the water, meaning that the population could be prevented from being the biotope that hosts the insurgency, and the ‘winning hearts and minds’ strategy can achieve this goal” 5. The conquest of “hearts and minds” is thus presented as the major effect in COIN 6. It aims to compel a population to support its cause (frequently referred to as “loyalist”). Cutting off guerrilla fighters from the local population is required in order to prevent the rebels from obtaining supplies and melting into the population. In reality, the proportion of the population recruited by one faction or the other is often very low. The population chooses which side to support, depending on the events and policies conducted by each actor. While the support of the population is critical to defeat the insurgency, its actual neutrality is what is most needed as a minimum requirement for the achievement of most political objectives 7. Between 75 and 80% of COIN actions are in fact of a political nature8. Population-centric counterinsurgency has always been tackled as the opposite of the exclusively “kinetic” (a US-born euphemism indicating the massive use of weapons, violence or force) or coercive approach, most often characterized by “search and destroy” operations against 4 5 6 7 8 Thomas Mockaitis: British Counterinsurgency in the Post-Imperial Era (1919-1960), Manchester University Press, 1995. To support his assumption, Mockaitis recalls the experience of Lieutenant-Colonel C.E. Bruce, from the Indian Political Department, in NWFP in 1938. Général Jean-Pierre Gambotti: Contre-Insurrection et Stratégie Oblique, Alliance géostratégique, November 23rd, 2009. Definition of COIN in the Allied Joint Doctrine for Counterinsurgency (AJP 3.4.4): counterinsurgency is the set of political, economic, social, military, media and psychological activities required to defeat insurgency and address any core grievances of the population. Barthélémy Courmont, Darko Ribnikar: Les Guerres Asymétriques – Conflits d’Hier et d’Aujourd’ hui, terrorisme et nouvelles menaces, Institut de la Recherche Internationale et Stratégique (IRIS), deuxième éd. revue et augmentée, Dalloz, Coll. Enjeux Stratégiques, 2009. 75% according to British General (and future Marshal) Gerald Templer. 80% according to David Galula, a French COIN thinker who is well-known in the US is and currently being rediscovered in France. 18 Introduction the enemy. Counterinsurgency has a complex history. It was nearly forgotten after the decolonization wars in Asia and Africa of the 1950s and 60s, then discredited after the US military intervention in Vietnam and the use of its most coercive techniques by South American dictatorships in the seventies. It then regained intellectual interest as a result of the Afghanistan (post2001) and Iraq (post-2003) conflicts. America, at war against Islamist terrorism in Iraq, initially believed it could eradicate evil with strikes and intimidation (“shock and awe”) prior to acknowledging in the middle of the decade, under the influence of a group of COIN supporters, that a different strategy taking the human factor further into account would be more successful in containing a clever enemy keen to capitalize on the population’s frustrations and make good use of globalization’s many possibilities. The need for a similar strategic reorientation became obvious for the United States and its NATO allies in Afghanistan. 200 soldiers had already been killed by early 2010. At the time, the coalition was facing its heaviest human losses yet. This clearly demonstrated that the insurgency continued to grow stronger fully eight years into the conflict, even as coalition reinforcements continued to arrive. Before discussing the feasibility of the struggle to “win hearts and minds” in Afghanistan, it would be useful to recall the military history of the concept, to question its practical effectiveness and to have a look at how it is presented in the doctrine of uk, French and uS forces. 19 PART 1 A CONCEPT DEvELOPED AND CLAIMED bY THE bRITISH “Winning hearts and minds” proved successful in the execution of “imperial policing” operations and is quite typical of British pragmatism. Born in the colonial environment and considered to be a valid strategy since the 1950s, it is now officially integrated into the doctrine of the United Kingdom’s armed forces. The primacy of “winning hearts and minds” over “search and destroy” is a given in all British counterinsurgency theory and practice. 21 Part 1 – A Concept developed and claimed by the british C hapter I – t he M alayan e MergenCy (1948-1960): a M Odel Of S uCCeSSful C OunterInSurgenCy The counterinsurgency campaign conducted by the British in Malaya between 1948 and 1960 is recognized as a success 9. The attempt by defeated communist leader Chin Peng to resume hostilities against the Malayan government after 1967 met with no more success than his first attempt to raise a popular revolt against the British colonial authorities. This is quite remarkable 10 when put into the context of the decolonization wars launched after 1945 by “Third World” insurgents supported by the Eastern Bloc. Although the Malayan case got off to a bad start, the loyalists eventually enjoyed a successful outcome. The consensus among analysts of the Malayan Emergency, particularly among AngloSaxon COIN experts, is an admission that the flexible population-centric approach adopted by the British command, which, after 1952 was focused on “winning hearts and minds”, had been the key to success 11. 1.1 – the Initial errings of repression (1848-1950) After fighting against the Japanese in WWII, Malayan communists resumed guerrilla warfare, this time against the British and supported by their political-military system. The colonial authorities had been severely weakened by the Japanese occupation. Malayans of Chinese descent, 38% of the total population of approximately 5 million inhabitants, made up 90% of the insurgents commanded by the Malayan Races Liberation Army (MRLA) or Malayan National Liberation Army (MNLA), which was the militant wing of the Malayan Communist Party (MCP). The Malayans of Chinese origin controlled a significant part of the economy and thus attracted the jealousy of native Malayans. They were not, however, integrated into the culture. They suffered from restrictions imposed by the colonial authorities on obtaining Malayan nationality and therefore did not have the right to vote. Some 500,000 Chinese-born Malayan “squatters”, who had sought refuge in the surrounding jungle during the Japanese occupation, constituted the base of recruitment for the MRLA/MNLA. Anthony Leguay: Etat d’Urgence en Malaisie – Un Exemple d’Adaptation à la Contre-Insurrection par les Forces Britanniques (1948-1960), Cahier de la recherche doctrinale du CDEF, 2010. 10 Only the defeat of the communist Huks in the Philippines at that time can be compared to it. 11 Dr Richard Stubbs: From Search and Destroy to Hearts and Minds: The Evolution of British Strategy in Malaya (1948-60), contribution to Counterinsurgency in Modern Warfare, joint publication by Daniel Marston and Carter Malkasian, Osprey Publishing, 2008. 9 23 Part 1 – A Concept developed and claimed by the british At the start of the campaign in 1948, neither side was fully prepared. The conflict quickly turned very aggressive since the British command was eager to suppress quickly the troublemakers whom it qualified as “terrorists” or “bandits” and to re-instate order, while the communists tried to impose their ideological stance. The MRLA/MNLA’s most spectacular feat was the assassination in an ambush of British High Commissioner Sir Henry Gurney, on October 6 th, 1951. The British seemed to be overwhelmed by the violent turn of this asymmetric conflict. The former WWII officers in command in Malaya had trouble understanding the operational environment they now had to cope with. Intelligence shortfalls as well as a complex chain of command that was totally disconnected from the terrain made most operations uncertain, if not counterproductive 12. At the beginning of the conflict, the British were only able to mobilize 13 infantry battalions (seven of which partially composed of Gurkhas, two belonging to the Royal Malay Regiment and another from the British Royal Artillery Regiment, used as a reserve force). From the beginning, the troops were clearly unprepared for jungle warfare. The authorities had to call for units from the Royal Marines and the King’s African Rifles, as well as reinforcements from the Commonwealth 13. The Special Air Service (SAS) created during WWII was re-formed in Malaya in 1950 as a specialized reconnaissance, raid and counterinsurgency unit. During the first years of the conflict, the various loyalist troops under British command, with little knowledge of the local environment, and local police, poorly trained and highly corrupt, conducted numerous brutal actions that merely worsened the security situation and led a large number of inhabitants, both native Malayans and those of Chinese descent, to side with the insurgents. 1.2 – the experimental Strategy Shift of 1951 In order to stop the Malayan population from turning further against the British authorities, Lieutenant General Sir harold Briggs, who was promoted to Commander-in-Chief of operations in Malaya in 1951, issued a memorandum in May 1950 that was to be become the basis of a plan aimed at regaining control of the most heavily populated areas and restoring a sense of safety and security among the local population. Lieutenant General Briggs’s objectives were threefold: • Improve intelligence on the MCP and the communist rebels; • Isolate and separate the MCP and the MRLA/MNLA from the population; • Force the guerrilla fighters to confront the British forces in open terrain. 12 13 Anthony Leguay: op. cit. Beside the soldiers of the British Army and the Malayan Federation, contingents coming from Australia, New Zealand, the Fiji and South Rhodesia fought against the insurgents in Malaya. 24 Part 1 – A Concept developed and claimed by the british The “Briggs Plan” was radically different from previous applications of military strategy, all of which had a “military-driven, insurgent-focused, search and destroy approach”14. It was a long term learning process and experiment, typical of a new approach focused on population control and security. To that end, the commander-in-chief included in his recommendations some forced displacements of populations towards resettlement areas 15, but also the initiation of local authority reforms and support for the coordination of efforts amongst all involved state players, such as local authorities, the armed forces and police. Despite the obvious shortcomings of the Briggs Plan, despite the furor caused by the assassination of Sir Henry Gurney and despite the limited results of the population relocation policy 16, this plan was used as the basis for the strategic option that was developed and further implemented by Brigg’s successor, Lieutenant General Sir gerald Templer, High Commissioner in Malaya from 1952 to 1954. The comprehensive British campaign aimed at “winning hearts and minds” was implemented during this period. 1.3 – the positive results of the flexible and population-Centric approach (1952-1960) Lieutenant General Templer arrived in Malaya in February 1952 with the intention of taking action in a broad range of domains: military, police, social, political and administrative. He was a man of strong charisma who believed he could improve the situation by focusing on the overall wellbeing of the local population, to whom he promised to follow a “Malayan way”. This operating method was in line with the intent expressed by the conservative cabinet of Prime Minister Sir Winston Churchill set up in 1951, and also by the new colonial administration that was subsequently organized to initiate the first steps for the accession to independence, with the support of Muslim Malayan notables. Malaya would eventually gain independence on August 31st, 1957. The military action was rationalized. Loyalist forces were increased to 35,000 men. The infantry was organized into small, adaptable, mobile and decentralized units, capable of tracking down the enemy in its own territory in accordance with the “jungle bashing” doctrine that was approved by Briggs just a few days before his departure in November 1951. Company commanders and platoon leaders received extended decision-making autonomy. The SAS carried out raids in the very heart of the areas held by the guerrilla forces, and hence provided the infantry with the strategic depth it had previously lacked. The Royal Air Force played a major role in COIN operations: airplanes and helicopters increased their roles from “close air” support logistics, including deployment of troops in the depth of the area of engagement, land operations supply and medical evacuations 17. Dr Richard Stubbs, op. cit. At the beginning of the 20 th century, forced displacements of populations for antisubversive purposes had been carried out for the first time by the British against Afrikaner commandos and the families, who had been deported into “re-concentration camps” that had been opened during the 2 nd Boer War (1899-1902). 16 The camps were poorly protected against rebel attacks and the populations suffered from police acts of violence. 17 Anthony Leguay: op. cit. 14 15 25 Part 1 – A Concept developed and claimed by the british Templer understood that an insurgency is a war of the people that requires a political solution be found to subversion, rather than the destruction of the guerrilla fighters 18. After successfully uniting the various actors in a single front to fight against the insurgency, Templer implemented the idea voiced under Briggs according to which “the cornerstone of a guerilla’s power is its relationship with the population” 19. From that moment on, the British counterinsurgency focused on this relationship. The necessity to “win hearts and minds” became a repeated refrain under Templer’s leadership 20. The phrase itself was first coined by the High Commissioner in June 1952: “The answer [to defeating the insurgents] lies not in pouring more troops into the jungle, but rests in the hearts and minds of the Malayan people” 21. Templer believed it was possible to win hearts “if the people are treated well and their expectations met”. He improved their living conditions by launching “Operation Service”, which was a full overhaul of the authorities, with police put at the service of the displaced populations. The resettlement areas set up under Briggs were now called “new villages”. In these “new villages”, Templer introduced social measures and development projects that were always coupled with a coercive dimension for the loyalist cause to become accepted in the minds of the people. population control measures were indeed attached to the “hearts and minds” program: a curfew, movement restrictions, food rationing (which could be extended as far as actual “food denial” to the recalcitrant), collective fines and preventive custody. However, in certain areas where the insurgency had been eliminated or was inactive, Templer declared the setting up of “white areas” that had a more lenient population control system and higher incentives for cooperation with the authorities. The population’s active participation in this part of the campaign was encouraged by the establishment of a “Home Guard”, as well as the active promotion of local elites within the legitimate authority’s power structure. Additionally, the recruitment of well-trained native policemen and a practice known as “continuous exhortation” 22 were encouraged. With these actions, the psychological war conducted to win over the undecided, as well as the counterpropaganda campaign to attract the insurgents themselves, were both successful. COIN theorists often quote Templer and praise his methods when justifying the implementation of the “winning hearts and minds” principle. Sir Gerald Templer: “An insurgent movement is a war of the people, and the government must give priority to defeating the political subversion, not the guerillas”. 19 This phrase is recalled by Anthony Leguay, op. cit. 20 According to Simon C. Smith: General Templer and Counter-Insurgency in Malaya: Hearts and Minds, Intelligence, and Propaganda, Intelligence and National Security, Vol. 16, Nr. 3, 2001. 21 Partially recalled by Elizabeth Dickinson in Foreign Policy: A Bright Shining Slogan. How Hearts and Minds Came to Be, September-October 2009 issue. 22 Gérard Chaliand, in Les Guerres Irrégulières (20 th-21 st centuries), Gallimard-Folio, 2008, presents the positive conclusions drawn by Major General Julian Paget in his book Emergency in Malaya, Faber & Faber, 1967. 18 26 Part 1 – A Concept developed and claimed by the british C hapter II – a r eprOduCIble S uCCeS ? In English language historical reviews, the Malayan case has become a common point of reference. According to Major General Sir Julian paget 23, one of the main COIN practitioners and specialists in the United Kingdom: “the state of emergency in Malaya clearly demonstrates how important the goal of winning hearts and minds needs to be considered, for short term and longer term purposes, and how a government can achieve this”. Besides Paget, other renowned authors who have analyzed the paradigms established in Malaya and thereby helped foster the population-centric approach and the minimum use of force include General Sir Robert Thompson and General Sir Frank kitson. The highly flexible strategy of General (later Field Marshal) Templer did indeed inspire the campaigns led by British forces against other irregular and asymmetric forces in kenya (19521959), Cyprus (1955-1959), Aden (1963-1967), Oman (1962-1975) and even Northern Ireland (after 1969). Civil-military cooperation at all levels, interaction between the military and the police, intelligence integration, involvement of native elites and air force support to counter-guerrilla actions are all the most obvious examples of the Malayan Emergency’s influence on these various theatres of operations. In each case, population control was the main component put into action. While “winning hearts and minds” was often claimed in theory, it has not always been thoroughly implemented. For example, Kenya’s, Mau Mau insurgency was poorly organized and lacked modern leadership, and could be crushed by conventional military means. Retrospectively, some writers became rather dubious about the exportability of the British strategy in Malaya, despite its clear relevance and –at least– compliance with the ideal evoked in the phrase “winning hearts and minds”. 2.1 – the lessons learned by robert thompson (good governance and reasoned use of force) General Sir Robert Grainger Ker Thompson (1916-1992) worked with General Sir Gerald Templer in Malaya. In September 1961 he was appointed chief of the British Advisory Mission (BRIAM) in Saigon. In this role, he advised the Kennedy, Johnson and Nixon administrations on the conduct of operations in Vietnam. His writings on asymmetric warfare and commando operations are references in their fields 24. General Sir Robert Thompson gives overall priority to the establishment of government structures in counter-guerrilla operations. He adopts Field Marshal Templer’s phrase “war of the people” to assert the following: “an insurgent movement is a war for the people. The measures taken by the government must obviously aim at restoring its authority and public order throughout the country, in order to regain 23 24 Paget was involved in all of the UK’s major post-war colonial campaigns (Malaya, Kenya, Cyprus, Aden, etc.) Three publications are particularly worth mentioning: Defeating Communist Insurgency. Experiences from Malaya and Vietnam, Chatto & Windus, 1966, No Exit from Vietnam, Chatto & Windus, 1969, and Revolutionary War in World Strategy (1945-1969), Chatto & Windus, 1970. 27 Part 1 – A Concept developed and claimed by the british control of the population and to gain its support” 25. He insists on the need to apply good governance: “winning the support of the population means in a nutshell to have good government in all domains” 26. Thompson acknowledges the political nature of an insurgency instead of attributing its effects simply to terrorists whose sole aim is to generate unrest. He insists on the relationship between the civil power, which holds ultimate authority, and the armed forces. He also insists that the use of force be reasoned and minimal. Gérard Chaliand, in his book Le Nouvel Art de la Guerre, published in 2008, underlines that Thompson puts great emphasis on legality and respect of democratic values. “The State must adopt a strategy that coordinates socio-economic and military factors, while acting in compliance with the law of which it is the guarantor”. An anti-subversive campaign can only be built on solid foundations and reliable intelligence. Priority must be given to getting rid of political subversion, which includes the possibility to eliminate the enemy’s agents. Paget echoes Thompson and excludes “inhuman and disproportionate” retaliations. On the subject of coercion, Thompson actually favors the physical separation of guerilla fighters from the local population. Therefore, recalling the lessons learned from the Malayan Emergency, he recommends the following population control measures: • The settlement of “strategic hamlets” similar to “new villages” and enjoy viable economic conditions 27; • The establishment of self-defense militias; • The control of the movement of people and goods. The objectives of these measures are threefold: to separate guerilla forces from the population, to protect the people and to eradicate any clandestine subversive organizations from the villages. Unlike Paget, Thompson recommends police force primacy over the armed forces for conducting repressive actions. As soon as the process of restoring authority is initiated and reason returns to the minds of the population, reforms can be launched in Crédits : Imperial War Museum order to “win hearts”. This is accompliVillage perimeter entrance secured by the Home Guard. shed by changing the population’s habits in order to deny subversive elements a receptive audience for their propaganda. The population is still considered to be the central stake of the conflict by both the insurgents and the State. Quoted by Gérard Chaliand in Les Guerres Irrégulières (XX e-XXI e siècle), Gallimard-Folio, 2008. Gérard Chaliand, op. cit. 27 Robert Thompson implemented this idea later again in Kenya in the form of “fortified villages” and in Vietnam in the 1960s. 25 26 28 Part 1 – A Concept developed and claimed by the british 2.2 – the lessons learned by Major general Sir frank Kitson (Counterinfluence and Crowd Control) Sir Frank Kitson, born in 1926, is a retired major general and theorist of counterinsurgency warfare and low intensity conflicts. He served as Commander-in-Chief, Land Command (CINCLAND) of the British Army from 1982 until 1985. He is best known for inventing the concept of countergangs involved in measures of deception, or “false flag” operations. Kitson recounted his COIN experience in Malaya and in Kenya in two works now regarded as references in the field 28. Kitson asserts that this type of warfare is a struggle to gain the trust of the population. Even if Major General Kitson admits that all cases of insurgency are different, he presents a comprehensive plan to counter them effectively, based on four main pillars: • Increased coordination at all levels, which is expressed in CIvil-MIlitary Cooperation (CIMIC); • Launching information or psychological operations that can create the required political atmosphere, enabling the government to introduce its measures with the highest chances of success; • Setting up an effective intelligence system; • Full respect of the primacy of law. As far as the second pillar is concerned, Kitson broke new ground when he developed his counter-guerrilla system as a mechanism to condition the public and influence decisionmakers, allowing them to take the best-suited initiatives after anticipating or testing their effect on the population. According to Kitson, purely military methods cannot replace the political and economic aspects of the overall campaign. When conducting security restoration operations, defensive actions, which involve the bulk of troops, should focus on preventing the insurgents from hampering the implementation of government programs. Offensive actions, carried out by small decentralized units, must focus on the targeted elimination of insurgents. Both courses of action must always counterbalance each other. Defensive operations generally include: • Monitoring and protection of people, critical points, isolated villages, crops and markets; • Crowd and riot control; • Denying insurgents the opportunity to exert influence on the population. 28 Low Intensity Operations: Subversion, Insurgency, Peace-Keeping, Faber & Faber, 1971 and A Bunch of Five, Faber & Faber, 1977. 29 Part 1 – A Concept developed and claimed by the british Kitson’s theory is clearly population-centric and includes riot control and counterinfluence measures. As far as counterinfluence is concerned, Kitson favors social programs that make it possible to win “the hearts and support of the people”, the creation of civil committees that counterbalance the guerrilla’s clandestine structures, and the setting up of daily patrols that allow close contact between the military and the population29. 2.3 – the Major Objections Major General Kitson asserts that the British method was successful in Kenya against the Mau Mau and in Oman against the Dhofar rebels, having been validated somewhat during the Malayan Emergency. Kitson systematically extols the virtues of the “winning hearts and minds” principle and all but proclaims the paradigm’s universal applicability. Kitson, Thompson and their supporters have nevertheless been criticized by researchers inclined to call this very idea into question, especially after the use of “winning hearts and minds” to characterize the interventions in Northern Ireland, Iraq and Afghanistan that left behind significant damage caused by inappropriate use of force. Those who are the least hostile to the population-centric options believe that “winning hearts and minds” does not fully explain the success of the loyalist forces. Several factors were present and coincided in a positive way, which some believe explains why Malaya was a special case. The strongest critics contend that the specific category of counterinsurgency that the Malayan Emergency typified remains that of a coercion enterprise, regardless of what others may wish call it. This type of action can never be implemented without causing prejudice toward one population or another. Historian Jacques Droz and counterinsurgency expert Gérard Chaliand, who belong to the first category of critical observers, note that the guerrillas consisted almost exclusively of an ethnic minority (Malayans of Chinese descent) directed by a Marxist-Leninist movement that was isolated from the wider population and without any support bases outside Malaya 30. The counterinsurgency certainly capitalized on the local economic boom created in the wood and copper sectors by the supply needs of the korean War (1950-1953) that coincided with the earlier stages of the Malayan Emergency. This windfall effect ensured the economic prosperity and viability of the “new villages”. The communists saw the population turn their backs on them because of their heavy use of sabotage that caused unemployment and an ensuing loss of income. In order to defeat the communist subversion, the British relied on the support of the Malayan majority. They had committed themselves very early to granting independence to the Muslim traditional elites. “Such favorable conditions have never come up again since then” 31. This aspect is underlined by Fred A. Lewis, in article published in The Canadian Army Journal, The Ability to Do Old Things in New Ways - Counterinsurgency and Operational Art, Vol. 9.3, winter 2006. 30 The guerrilla could not count on the support of the “great Maoist backup”, as historian Jacques Droz put it. 31 Gérard Chaliand, Le Nouvel Art de la Guerre, L’Archipel, 2008. 29 30 Part 1 – A Concept developed and claimed by the british Historian Karl Hack 32 believes that the major reason for the defeat of the insurgency was not the charm offensive initiated by General Templer from 1952 onward, but the population control and guerrilla fighter isolation policy started under the command of General Briggs between 1950 and 1952. To put it bluntly, it was clearly the use of sheer force together with this strategy of deportation [of millions of Malayans] that broke the back of the insurgency, not a joyful and pleasant “winning hearts and minds” campaign 33. Researcher Paul Dixon 34 went a step further in calling into question the “winning hearts and minds” concept. He believes that claiming to have implemented a “winning hearts and minds” offensive in such a deadly and destructive campaign is against core democratic values. Behind the convenient cover of “winning hearts and minds”, the British supposedly carried out repeated “violations of the law and human rights abuses”. The principles of respect for legality and the use of force only as a last resort, central to UK counterinsurgency practices as defined by Kitson and Thompson, were seemingly ignored in later military commitments. Dixon is referring particularly to the conflict in Northern Ireland with this observation, though he is also very critical of the interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan. Before expressing any value judgment, and instead of insisting on the dichotomy between the approaches, it is certainly more relevant to recall, as historian Richard Stubbs 35, does, that the operations in Malaya were part of a broader continuum. The path resolutely followed by Templer in order to put an end to the insurgent movement had already been established during Briggs’s mandate. The High Commissioner in Malaya reintroduced consistency into the civil and military systems. The British learned from their past mistakes. Their brutal initial reaction was typical of a colonial power that was destabilized by protests. Coercive COIN was not done away with when “winning hearts and minds” was brought into the foreground. Coercive aspects were simply adapted, making them more humane. This is symbolized by the transformation of the camps into “new villages”, which were the prototypes of the “strategic hamlets” seen in other future conflicts. Improving living conditions and gaining the support of the population never lost focus as a goal of the colonial government. The counterinsurgency’s success in the Malayan Emergency is the result of the combination of policies instituted in the right place at the right time, whether or not the British continue to claim it as a part of COIN’s founding mythology. Karl Hack: The Malayan Emergency as Counter-Insurgency Paradigm, Journal of Strategic Studies, Vol. 32#3, June, 2009. 33 US Army Colonel Gian P. Gentile: Les mythes de la contre-insurrection et leurs dangers : une vision critique de l’US Army, translated into French by Stéphane Taillat and Georges-Henri Bricet des Vallons for Sécurité internationale, winter 2009-2010. 34 Paul Dixon: Hearts and Minds? British Counterinsurgency from Malaya to Iraq, Journal of Strategic Studies, Vol. 32, #3, June, 2009. 35 Richard Stubbs: Hearts and Minds in Guerilla Warfare: Malayan Emergency (1948-1960), Oxford University Press, 1989. 32 31 Part 1 – A Concept developed and claimed by the british C hapter III – a C OMpOnent d OCtrIne Of b rItISh l and f OrCeS e MplOyMent British COIN doctrine relies heavily on the theories of General Sir Robert Thompson and Major General Sir Frank Kitson. It stresses the minimization of the use of force, the restoration of legitimate political authorities, CIMIC and psychological operations. updated in 2009, the latest doctrine formalizes the lessons learned by UK forces in colonial conflicts and field operations that took place during the drawdown of the British Empire. “Winning hearts and minds” is one of its principal features, almost the trademark of the newly updated doctrine. In 1970, the military code in use at the time already stated that a high level of popular support was a pre-requisite for success: “Unless the trust, confidence and respect of the people are won by the government and the security forces, the chance of success is greatly reduced. If the people support the government and the security forces, the insurgents become isolated and cut off from their supply channels, safe havens and intelligence networks” 36. This reflection on “winning hearts and minds” was to be further developed by the British. The population-centric approach does not focus only on the psychological frame of mind of a villager or a group of villagers as in Malaya. It also aims at shaping the mindset and feelings of ever-growing communities: the urban crowd, the wider population, and even the world audience. The deployment of British troops in Afghanistan (2001) and Iraq (2003) in the framework of coalitions of nations once again raised the question of the relevance of the application of force and its proportionality within a civil environment. This question had already been raised in the international interventions in Somalia (1992) and former Yugoslavia (1995). In his works published in 2005, General Sir Rupert Smith explained these new dilemmas very clearly. The spirit of open-mindedness and cultural adaptability cultivated by the British chain of command contributed in no small way to reopening the debates on security restoration and stabilization operations 37. The new British Counterinsurgency Army Code, published in 2009, goes into further detail. 3.1 – the War “among the people”, according to general Sir rupert Smith general Sir Rupert Smith (retired) remains one of the most experienced and best-known modern military commanders, with 40 years of operational command at all levels of seniority. He commanded the British division in the Gulf War from 1990 to 1991, the UN forces in BosniaHerzegovina in 1995 and the Northern Ireland theater of operations from 1996 to 1999. His last British Ministry of Defence: Land Operations, Vol. III: Counter-Revolutionary Operations, Part 3, CounterInsurgency Army Code #70516. 37 This was highlighted in a seminar organized by Kingston University together with the Royal United Services Institute on September 21st, 2007, on the topic Hearts and Minds? British Counter-Insurgency from Malaya to Iraq. 36 32 Part 1 – A Concept developed and claimed by the british position was Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe before he retired from active duty in 2002. In The Utility of Force – The Art of War in the Modern World, published in 2005, he explains why force remains necessary even though the wars of the industrial era are over and also how the conditions for the use of force need to be rethought. Smith believes that current conflicts are totally different from traditional interstate wars: Sir Rupert Smith. “The strategic objective is to gain the support of local populations to the military’s political mandate, not to win the decisive battle on the battlefield. As a result, the military’s methods need to comply, especially at tactical level, with this strategic political requirement, or at least to steer the allegiances, representations and interests of this population into a direction that is favorable to the military and their mandate” 38. According to General Sir Rupert Smith, and to General Robert Thompson before him, counterinsurgency is a war of legitimacy in which the population is at stake. Areas with the highest concentration of people, in other words, cities and urban areas, should be privileged for psychological operations (PSYOPS) aimed at “winning minds”. Communication strategy plays a critical role. Psychological operations are “positive” when they aim at promoting the loyalist forces’ actions, and “negative” when they attempt to discredit the opposing insurgents. In order to carry out successful operations within the population and win its support, Smith recommends obtaining greater understanding of this population and its expectations, which he files under two categories: the freedom to prosper and the freedom to live in a safe environment (freedom from fear, hunger, cold, uncertainty, etc.). This classification recalls the “four freedoms” that President Franklin Delano Roosevelt presented as fundamental in his State of the Union address on January 6th, 1941; those that every human being should enjoy everywhere in the world: freedom of speech and expression, freedom of every person to worship, freedom from want and freedom from fear. The two first liberties are based on those stated in the First Amendment of the US Constitution; the last two (the right to enjoy economic security and an internationalist view of foreign policy) have become the pillars of an “American liberal doctrine”. To justify operations carried out among populations, General Sir Rupert Smith relies on humanist views stemming from the humanist Anglo-Saxon tradition, the same spirit that motivated the founding fathers of the United Nations (UN) following WWII 39. This distinguished heritage paves the way for COIN, which becomes a “liberation of hearts and minds” 38 39 Rupert Smith: The Utility of Force – The Art of War in the Modern World, 2005. The “four freedoms” were integrated into the Atlantic Charter, a joint statement by President Franklin D. Roosevelt and Prime Minister Winston Churchill on August 14 th, 1941. They influenced the United Nations Charter adopted on June 26 th, 1945, and were included in the preamble of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights adopted by the UN on December 10 th, 1948. 33 Part 1 – A Concept developed and claimed by the british instead of a “conquest of hearts and minds” 40. While this approach may seem democratic, it shows that Anglo-Saxon culture reluctantly views COIN as situated outside the framework of an individualistic liberal society 41. 3.2 – the Contribution of the army to Security and Stabilization Operations (JPD 3-40) Security and Stabilisation: The Military Contribution, is the title of the handbook published in 2009 by the British Ministry of Defence under the reference: Joint Doctrine Publication 3-40 or JDP 3-40. It was designed as a set of guidelines for security restoration and stabilization operations to be conducted in fragile or failed states facing criminality or insurgency. Its authors at the Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre (DCDC) integrated the converging and complementary observations of both Frank Kitson and Rupert Smith. This handbook also extensively incorporates methodology borrowed from united States counterinsurgency doctrine, newly developed since the mid-2000s (see Annex 1 of this study.) The British handbook defines a “COIN sequence” in four steps: “Shape, Secure, Hold, Develop”, while the Americans use “Shape, Clear, Hold and Build”. In an asymmetric war, JDP 3-40 praises the forces’ anticipation, learning and adaptation capabilities claimed by nearly all COIN supporters from the English-speaking world. According to JDP 3-40, British COIN is based upon the following principles: • Priority given to the political-strategic level; • Minimum use of force; • Use of intelligence to locate insurgent fighters and make them change sides; • Relentless offensive pressure on insurgents; • Tactical patrols by small mobile units to carry out cordon and search operations; • Population control (security restoration, self-defense) and resource control; • Setting up of safe areas freed from any insurgent, which extend to the bordering areas according to the “ink blot” or “oil spot” strategy 42; • Strong focus on “hearts and minds” and psychological operations in general. It states that the population should be the focus of the counterinsurgents’ actions, though JDP 3-40 uses the term “the wider population”. The handbook notes that the expressions “winning hearts and minds”, “population focus” and “securing the population” are intermingled and all refer to the same concept, which may cause overinterpretation. Hence the generally In 2010, French military commanders engaged in Afghanistan also promote this phrasing. Observation by Stéphane Taillat. 42 The French refer to it as the “oil spot” principle. See Part 2 of this study. 40 41 34 Part 1 – A Concept developed and claimed by the british accepted idea according to which “winning hearts and minds” strategy is implemented primarily to the benefit of international counterinsurgency forces is incorrect. In following the British approach, this advantage is not the main goal 43. What truly matters is the attitude of the “wider population” towards its government. The counterinsurgency must seek to influence public opinion in favor of the local government, with the support of its own local “rival elites” who compete between themselves for power and authority in their own government. British doctrine notes that the population’s sentiment has a direct impact on the judgment of a government’s perceived competence, authority and legitimacy. In a country where counterinsurgency forces are deployed, it is critical for a government to provide security to its population. The “wider population” must be certain that its own government can “sustain adequate security provision” 44. To that end it must produce a message, a narrative that is credible and wins broad support among the population. 3.3 – the Mitigated experiment in the afghan theater of Operations (helmand province: 2006-2009) In Afghanistan, British forces are taking part in both halves of the NATO mission: security restoration and reconstruction assistance, under the mandate of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) and the fight against terrorism, known as “Operation Enduring Freedom” (OEF). In helmand province, under Regional Command South (RC South), their action did not really “win hearts and minds”, but rather prompted the fierce resistance of the Taliban insurgents embedded within the population. British officials admitted that their armed forces had not faced such ordeal by fire “since the experience of the Korean war”. The British contingent’s force protection and offensive reaction requirements account for the fact that a population-centric COIN strategy encountered significant delays in; only implemented fully two years after the first British troops arrived in Helmand. The UK forces were constantly torn between two strategic options: appeasing insurgent fighters and winning over tribal groups. This situation lasted until 2009 when it was replaced by the American comprehensive approach for Afghanistan, which has yet to prove successful. Conversely, too strong a hostility of the population towards the international forces will impede the stabilization effort, without totally preventing it. 44 The 1970 British forces Code of Conduct stated that the primary task of the armed forces was to establish a cohesive civilian government rather than the defeat of the enemy, which implies, particularly, the restoration of a police and civilian justice system. This is similar to nation building or even state building. 43 35 Part 1 – A Concept developed and claimed by the british As of June 1st, 2010, 289 British soldiers have been killed in Afghanistan, a tally that weighs heavily on British public opinion towards the conflict. The total number of casualties exceeds that of the Falklands War in 1982, where 255 servicemembers were killed. 289 KIA still only amount to about a third of the military losses during the duration of the conflict in ulster. In 30 years of presence in Northern Ireland, the British 15,000-strong contingent lost 700 soldiers. They were facing a population of about 800,000 Catholics, a population similar in size to the Pashtuns in Helmand. This 60,000 km² province is located in the South of Afghanistan. It is the cradle of the Taliban movement and is also home to 40% of the world’s opium poppy production. It has been the area of operations of the British contingent since 2006. From 2006 to 2009, before being reinforced by US Army and US Marine Corps troops, and also before the start of two US-dominated COIN operations (Khanjar on July 2 nd, 2009, then Moshtarak on February 14 th, 2010), the Helmand counterinsurgency efforts involved 3,300 UK soldiers reinforced by 250 Danish and 150 Estonian soldiers. In order to fulfill its missions of protecting the Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) 45 based in the province’s main town of Lashkar Gah and conducting attacks on designated targets in the course of OEF, Task Force Helmand initially deployed itself in the area to numerous operating bases, also known as “platoon houses”. The contingent suffered a higher casualty rate than in Vietnam and the Falklands, a soldier having a 1-in-36 chance of being killed in action. The death of Captain Philippson on June 11th, 2006, when the Taliban encircled and overran the Musa Qala platoon house was a setback that compelled the British to call their operational plans into question. The battalion was in fact a “foreign body” that had been “transplanted” into Helmand. It totally failed to find common ground with the local elites and had provoked growth of “antibodies” as soon as it attempted to suppress poppy cultivation. The province significantly became known as “Hell Land” among British forces. Since they could not resupply or reinforce Musa Qala platoon house but also refused to surrender, the British were forced to sign an agreement with the local elders that initiated a mutual truce and settled the simultaneous withdrawal of both parties of belligerents. This policy of appeasement, intended to lower the intensity of the conflict, in fact caused friction between the Afghan government and the American ally. Musa Qala was quickly ceded back to the local elders in January 2007. It soon fell under Taliban control and became a stronghold of their guerrilla fighters. This district center was taken back much later on December 7 th, 2007, with the support of an American battalion and a battalion of the Afghan National Army (ANA). The struggle for control of Musa Qala still causes problems for ISAF in 2010. In spring 2008, this strategy began to be replaced by a new approach focused on winning over part of the population according to the “oil spot” principle, with a concentration of all military, economic and political assets in two locations, Lashkar Gah and Gereshk, in order to radiate and extend the loyalist influence zone. The defection to the loyalists of a Taliban commander, along with a third of his men, facilitated counter-guerrilla operations. COIN operations had 45 The PRT operating methods are studied in the Part 3 of this study, which focuses on American COIN. 36 Part 1 – A Concept developed and claimed by the british their first major chance to engage in the battle for “winning hearts and minds” with the reconstruction of the Kajaki Dam, which was a source of pride for the troops and the focus of much media attention. The project’s aim was to rebuild the dam in order to supply 1.8 million inhabitants with electric power. The population-centric approach fostered by the British doctrine brought along a progressive merging of the civil-military and police activities, the dispatching of a female team, which proved to be accepted by the population when making ID checks and house-to-house searches, and the establishment of sociological databases by the PRT in order to identify power brokers among the population. According to Colonel Michel Goya 46, the British results in the Afghan conflict between 2006 and 2009 can appear frustrating 47. The “winning hearts and minds” campaign could not have its full impact since three obstacles were in place that are highlighted by Afghanistan specialist Gilles Dorronsoro 48: the collective memories of the British Army’s expeditions in the area in the 19 th century ruined the chances to win over a significant number of Pashtuns of Helmand; the high level of popular support locally enjoyed by the Taliban; and the lack of structures effectively representing the Afghan state that helped contribute to the marginalization of the power brokers connected with President Hamid Karzai. According to Dorronsoro, all these reasons account for Helmand not being an ideal candidate as a place to trial population-centric COIN. Furthermore, the Taliban’s tactical skills and resilience had been underestimated. Their deceptive actions against British troops in the districts of Musa Qala and Sangin prevented the “oil spot” from spreading from the centers of Lashkar Gah and Gereshk. In 2009 and 2010, similar difficulties greeted the Americans when they attempted to implement their “Shape, Clear, Hold and Build” sequence in Helmand. From a purely tactical point of view, Task Force Helmand was a well-suited tool, but it lacked critical mass prior to the arrival of American reinforcements, particularly in the purely kinetic domain. It was also the first time the British had initiated a COIN operation without being the top command authority, as they were in Malaya. This could be the reason behind notable differences in perception of the strategy’s effectiveness between the British and American forces. The Americans needed more time than the Europeans to be convinced of the need to favor the political approach over the restrictive military option. This political approach is based on dialogue with different segments of the local population and on reducing the opportunities for conflict. As General Sir Richard Dannatt, Commander-in-Chief of the British armed forces, summed it up: “waging war alongside the Americans does not mean making war like them” 49. Speech by Michel Goya at France’s Ecole Militaire on April 29 th, 2009, during the study day of the Center of Historical Studies of the French Defense (CEHD) dedicated to Afghanistan. See the related article printed in the CDEF publication Doctrine #17, July 2009. 47 British journalist and former humanitarian worker Matt Waldman went further and called this experience vain and futile: “These attempts to win hearts and minds are futile. With over 200 soldiers dead, Britain must realize that building schools and hospitals won’t win the Afghan people’s trust”, The Guardian, August 16 th, 2009. 48 Gilles Dorronsoro: Fixing a Failed Strategy in Afghanistan, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2009. 49 Foreword of the book by Charles Reed and David Ryall: The Price of Peace: Just War in the Twenty-First Century, Cambridge University Press, 2007. 46 37 Part 1 – A Concept developed and claimed by the british Conclusion of part 1: In Malaya, the British laid the foundations of the battle to “win hearts and minds”. The insurgent enemy could be defeated thanks to a confluence of geopolitical, economic and social factors that highly favored the loyalists, but this exact situation has never again been seen in other theaters of operations. In Helmand Province, the British contingent and the American forces deployed there since 2009 as reinforcements are neither in control of the territory nor of the local institutions. They cannot stand in for the Afghan state in implementing all its governmental competences, especially in the field of police and justice. Local partners cannot be relied upon because of the high degree of fragmentation of the society and the failure of society’s traditional elites. To make matters worse, alternative crops that could be introduced to generate income cannot compete with highly lucrative poppy cultivation. The coalition troops in Helmand do not control the population, let alone the border with Pakistan, which is used as a safe haven and rear base for many Taliban fighters. 38 PART 2 AN APPROACH THAT FINDS COMMON GROUND WITH FRENCH EXPERIENCES The French military is not as concerned with the conquest of “hearts and minds” as its English-speaking counterparts seem to be. Nevertheless, some common ground could be found in the years following the colonial period thanks to the informal exchange of knowhow in field operations, to the introduction of the common concept of “stabilization” and to the posthumous rehabilitation of David Galula’s works that have been rediscovered and studied anew since the mid 2000s. The French doctrine of counterinsurgency (“contrerébellion” or “CREB”) summarizes and encapsulates operating methods inherited from the colonial period, such as “pacification” and the “oil spot” principle, psychological operations and population control. They are largely borrowed from anti-subversive warfare theories and include a population-centric approach. 39 Part 2 – An approach that finds common ground with French experiences C hapter I – t he l egaCy Of M arShalS g allIenI and lyautey At the end of the 19 th century and the first half of the 20 th century, the “pacification” missions conducted by French colonial troops largely resembled the similar “imperial policing” activities of their British counterparts. The French “pacification” tradition, well known to Joseph gallieni (1849-1916) and subsequently prolonged by Louis-hubert Lyautey (1854-1934), rested on the principle of “gradual penetration” according to the “oil spot” principle and the “dissuasive pressure” concept, at least through the period of the wars of decolonization. Success in this environment was obtained by maintaining a clever balance between two options: “search and sweep” units operating deep into enemy territory, and “quadrillage” or “gridding tactics”. Generals (both later Marshals) Gallieni and Lyautey understood that victory could not be obtained by purely military means when facing politically motivated native uprisings. Coercing insurgents to fall in line with loyalist authority was not the only goal sought through “pacification” operations. “Winning hearts and minds” at the time also included the officer’s “social role”, as Lyautey 50 put it, which is reminiscent of the “Republic’s duty to civilize” colonized peoples 51. The paternalistic ideology of spreading civiliJoseph Gallieni. Louis Hubert Lyautey. zation that underpinned the “pacification” fostered by these marshals of the Third French Republic sharply contrasts with General (later Field Marshal) Templer’s post-1952 pragmatism and utilitarianism in Malaya. 1.1 – the Idea of “pacification” Stéphane Taillat is a French expert in “pacification” and counterinsurgency à la française. He maintains an online journal called “En Vérité”, which is dedicated to these and other similar topics. He states that “the doctrinal apparatus does exist, but it is often informal and is based on the writings of notable personalities”. Taillat cites Gallieni and Lyautey as the top contributors. gallieni was General Governor of French Sudan (1886-1891) where he had to put down a native uprising violently. In 1892, he was posted to Tonkin, where he commanded the Second Military Division and fought against Chinese pirates known as the “Black Flags”, before consolidating the French presence in Indochina at the time. He was then appointed Governor General in Madagascar where he pacified and took control of the Great Island from 1896 to 1905. Lyautey, who worked with him in Tonkin (1894-1897) and Madagascar (1897-1902), created the French protectorate in Morocco, where he was posted as Commissioner General (1912-1925). Le Rôle social de l’officier, an article by Lyautey published anonymously in the Revue des Deux Mondes in 1891. Reprinted by Editions Bertillat, 2003. 51 On 28th July 1885, Jules Ferry, a fervent proponent of colonial expansion, made a famous speech at the National Assembly: “Superior races have a duty towards inferior races […] It is their duty to civilize inferior races”. 50 41 Part 2 – An approach that finds common ground with French experiences Taillat notes that “pacification” is a concept that was never called into question in Indochina or Algeria: “it mainly includes maintaining or restoring order in front of insurgent peoples or groups (the phrase ‘winning over’ is often used), or even piracy in Tonkin. According to Lyautey and Gallieni, it is based on the principle of ‘organizational penetration’ (sometimes called ‘oil spot’) that must go beyond the mere return to the initial state for the population. Prosperity and security are indeed fair aims in and of themselves, since they require the establishment of the rule of Law and Civilization” 52. In preparation for deployment to Madagascar, Gallieni gave his troops the following instructions: • pacify and extensively occupy the territory according to the “oil spot” principle; • Always advance outwards; • Combine political and military actions in order to take control of the country; • Immediately establish close contacts with the population, get familiar with their habits and their mindset, and meet their basic requirements in order to persuade them to accept the new institutions 53. The phrase “winning hearts and minds” had yet to have been coined, however, Gallieni’s instructions constituted a French version of the same concept that predated by a half-century the British counter-guerrilla experiences that were to come in Malaya. On May 22 nd, 1898, in his general orders, Gallieni gave the following instructions: “Each time an officer is required to act against a village […] he needs to remember that his first duty, after securing submission of the local population, is to rebuild the village, reorganize the local market and establish a school. The process of establishing peace and future organization in a country will come from the combined use of force and politics”. According to Gallieni, military intervention54 in the colonies had to include assistance to the local population in such domains as government, the economy and education. It required permanent contacts with the inhabitants as well as a thorough knowledge of the country and its languages. Under Gallieni’s command, numerous infrastructures were put in place, such as railways and the Pasteur Institute. He introduced a new approach to population control and defined and implemented a “race policy” in Madagascar. On the basis of the racialist anthropological theories of the time, he carried out a systematic and photographic census of the population and then divided the country into administrative districts according to the resulting “racial mapping”. Stéphane Taillat, op. cit. Quotation by Lieutenant General Bruno Dary, Paris Garrison Commander, in an introduction to Jean-Yves Alquier’s testimony Nous Avons Pacifié Tazalt – Journal de Marche d’un Officier Parachutiste, published by the French Forces Employment Doctrine Center (CDEF) in a series of doctrinal papers in 2009. 54 The repression of the Malagasy resistance to French colonisation caused between 100,000 and 700,000 deaths from a population of 3 million. 52 53 42 Part 2 – An approach that finds common ground with French experiences Lyautey, also an empire builder with a comprehensive vision for the future, built roads, harbors and an administrative capital, Rabat in Morocco. He was eager to reconcile the French presence with the local Cherifian traditions and insisted that priority be given to gaining the population’s support: “[in Morocco], the peaceful and mostly agrarian local population was the subject of [the French forces’] first and most efficient cooperation” 55. In one of his Letters from Tonkin (1928), he explained how cautious one should be before “destroying in the night a rebels’ nest that might be a market during the day” 56. He advocates for the education mission of the armed forces, beyond its purely military combat function. In Lyautey’s eyes, each deployed officer should be ready to play a “social role” among the local population he has to live with, as well as with his own subordinates. 1.2 – the principle of “gradual penetration” or “Oil Spot” The “oil spot” principle is a population-centric course of action that was praised by Lyautey in Du Rôle colonial de l’Armée, his work written about the Army’s colonial role. Mokran Ouarem 57, in a recent article that discusses the current implementation of Lyautey’s “pacification” idea in Afghanistan, summed up its objective: “Sustained occupation rests on the combination of the use of force and civilizing actions. The method entails a step-by-step approach, immediately exploiting the gained advantage, reassuring the population, restoring order and re-establishing social life, reopening the local marketplaces, and in doing so simultaneously extending the pacification outward in concentric circles”. The “oil spot” principle, still praised by supporters of American COIN, stems in some way from the population. It is the static component from which counterinsurgency forces are entrusted with a threefold mission: • Drive out the insurgent organization; • Deny guerrilla or terrorist activities; • Secure tight control to turn the population toward the loyalist cause. Armed force relies heavily on two complementary coercive tactics in order to restore peace and security in a given territory: “search and sweep” by specialized units in an offensive column layout, which wage war against the opponent, and “quadrillage” by fixed units, which allows for zone-specific defense. “Quadrillage” facilitates prolonged interaction between the population and the armed forces so long as offense and defensive actions are properly supported Speech before his peers at the Académie française on December 5 th, 1926. Quote by Major General Thierry Ollivier, commander of the Forces Employment Doctrine Center (CDEF) when opening the seminar titled: Weapons and Hearts: Paradoxes in Modern Wars, on November 23 rd, 2009. 57 Mokrane Ouarem: Lyautey au Chevet de l’Afghanistan, Le Monde, April 1st, 2010. Mokrane Ouarem is a Lieutenant Commander in the Maréchal-Lyautey class of the French War College. 58 The coercive method has existed since the Vendée wars (“the Infernal Columns”) but Gallieni and Lyautey improved their effectiveness and provided them with constructive methods. 55 56 43 Part 2 – An approach that finds common ground with French experiences by the political, civil and military authorities. “Winning the confidence” of the inhabitants can be achieved by protecting people and property, keeping lines of communication and trade routes open, and getting acquainted with the population 59. Stéphane Taillat notes that “security restoration actions are planned and conducted according to a division of territory into three parts: the target zone, the security zone and the harassment zone. In boundary areas, security can be restored by applying “relentless [dissuasive] pressure on other zones in which insurgents might try to find refuge” 60. 1.3 – the Concept of “dissuasive pressure” 61 The concept of “dissuasive pressure” shows itself to be the best way to achieve “pacification” effects according to the “oil spot” principle. The latter indeed relies on the establishment of secured zones and hence creates a patchwork of territories that are distinguished from one another by their degree of insurgent activity. During “search and sweep” operations, most notably when exercised in heavily populated areas, the counterinsurgents must occupy the territory for a certain period of time to “pacify” the zone before resuming their offensive, especially in adjacent zones. It is thus necessary to take offensive “harassment” action in the insurgents’ staging areas and refuge zones to prevent them from taking advantage of the temporary weakness of the counterinsurgent forces in the geographical areas where they are less present or stretched thin. In the end, these harassment operations pave the way for the next step of the “oil spot” by eroding the enemy’s capabilities, by such actions as the destruction of weapon caches, dismantling of networks, interdiction of communications channels, etc. To accomplish this mission, the police forces must function alongside the military, either on the front line if the insurgent forces are not openly visible, or as reinforcement troops to the military. This is how the tactical method makes it possible to successfully confine insurgent organizations. Limiting the freedom of maneuver of the enemy between safe havens, staging areas and areas of operations completes the actions separating the insurgency from the population which take place simultaneously in regions which are being “pacified”. Adèle Le Guen: L’Emploi des forces terrestres dans les missions de stabilisation en Algérie, CDEF Doctrinal Paper, 2006. 60 Stéphane Taillat: Auto-critique, En Vérité, June 27 th, 2009. 61 Section 1.3 of this chapter is a full translation of the article dedicated to this tactical course of action in the article Counterinsurgency in the French language version of Wikipedia, a free online encyclopedia to which Stéphane Taillat is a contributor, October 2008. 59 44 Part 2 – An approach that finds common ground with French experiences C hapter II – t he p OpulatIOn aS the M aIn S taKe Of r evOlutIOnary Warfare (drW) In the d OCtrIne After 1945, the fight against communist subversion in Indochina and the similarities drawn from the emerging Algerian rebellion were translated into theoretical principles by a number of military strategists of the time. A corpus of anti-subversive methods was developed in the early sixties and became the de facto doctrine for combating “revolutionary war”. The Doctrine of Revolutionary Warfare (DRW) incorporates some key aspects of “pacification” and introduces counter-guerrilla concepts taken from the converse of Mao’s famous maxim, where the aim is to “take the fish out of the water”. Reference to these two combined approaches can even be found in the titles of two psychological warfare schools, called “training centers for pacification and counter-guerrilla tactics”. They ware created in French Algeria by General Raoul Salan and Colonel Charles Lacheroy, in the Jeanne d’Arc hamlets in Philippeville (Skikda) and in Arzew. The DRW states that the population is always the main concern in an ideological confrontation. The population is at stake both in the conflict and in the terrain where it is taking place. The enemy is characterized as a subversive agent. Faced with this undermining influence, counter-guerrilla tactics aim alter nately at controlling and assisting the populations that are to be protected. It has become common to oppose these two courses of action, although they are largely complementary 62. Roger Trinquier (1908-1985) is usually considered as the theorist behind rather coercive and security building tactical measures: control and intimidation of the populations, elimination of suspects and torture-based extraction of information. David galula (1919-1967), who lived at the same time but was not well known until recently, promoted a more population-centric approach that included strategic actions and political reforms. The “Sections administratives spécialisées” (SAS) program that was put into place between 1955 and 1962 was more political than coercive in its approach. Though it was perhaps the most developed initiative aimed at reconciling “minds and hearts”, it could not change the course of the Algerian War all by itself. 62 Bertrand Valeyre, Alexandre Guérin: op. cit. 45 Part 2 – An approach that finds common ground with French experiences 2.1 – anti-Subversive Warfare according to roger trinquier When Colonel Roger Trinquier published in 1961 his work La Guerre moderne 63, he summarized his experiences in two different theaters of operations: Indochina (1946-1954) and Algeria (1954-1962). He believed that the use against the insurgent enemy of the same weapons of that same adversary was legitimate, a concept known as “fighting fire with fire”. “Acting differently would have been absurd”, he wrote. Trinquier starts from a certain strategic environment: that of a communist-dominated insurgency stirred up from abroad. Since subversion is a weapon of war used by a foreign country, Trinquier recommends granting army forces extended powers during troubled periods. Victory is achieved by destroying the insurgents’ political-military apparatus and in doing so, restoring security. The establishment of “exceptional legislation” aims to neutralize insurgent psychological operations and identify the “inner enemy” 64. It thus allows for striking the enemy through policing and by judicial means, thereby clear the way for other operations. “Quadrillage” and “search and sweep” operations also aim to restore civil order and peace. Once order is restored, the “exceptional legislation” rules must be abrogated. Trinquier proposes the following three principles: • Separate the insurgents from the population which supports them; • Render the guerrilla areas indefensible; • Coordinate these actions over a large geographic area over a long period of time. He admits that the actual implementation of these three principles is not easy, since the insurgents will generally move within difficult terrain of their own selection. They are likely to enjoy the support of the population and hence have superior intelligence collection capabilities. The best way to counter that is to increase monitoring measures to identify and neutralize subversive agents as early as possible. No comprehensive measures for dividing the insurgent movement are envisaged by Trinquier. His main strategy hinges on systematic population control and organization. The organization of the population as theorized by Trinquier follows a strict hierarchy. No elected representatives are proposed, only caretaker officials put in charge of making sure that the population takes its defense in its own hands. Trinquier asserts that the “precondition of modern warfare is the unconditional support of the population” 65. Psychological operations must above all create a feeling of security in the people’s mind. This work, with a foreword by Bernard Fall, was published in the US in 1964 under the title: Modern Warfare, a French View of Counterinsurgency. 64 Mathieu Rigouste: L’Ennemi intérieur – La Généalogie Coloniale et Militaire de l’Ordre Sécuritaire dans la France Contemporaine, La Découverte, 2009. 65 Emphasized by Colonel Fred A. Lewis: op. cit. 63 46 Part 2 – An approach that finds common ground with French experiences The measures listed in La Guerre moderne are mainly of a coercive kind 66. Once security is restored, there is no need to carry out largescale reforms to “win hearts” since the legitimacy of the ruling power is never called into question. Social actions aim only at meeting the basic needs of the civil population. Trinquier’s approach treats insurgency as a purely external factor. To him, the endogenous factors (weak institutions, socio-economic gaps, ethnic tensions) merely facilitate “revolutionary war” that is fomented abroad. 2.2 – Counterinsurgency according to david galula Lieutenant Colonel David Galula (1919-1967), dubbed “the Clausewitz of Counterinsurgency” in the United States, is an author whose significant works were recently rediscovered on both sides of the Atlantic. His works are well known in the US 67, but they went unnoticed in France at the time of their publication in the 1960s. They mix references to “pacification” and lessons learned from British experiences. Having been sent as the French deputy military attaché to Beijing after World War II, he had real-life experience of the Partisan War in China (1945-1948). As an observer with the UN Special Commission for the Balkans, he witnessed the shockwaves from the Greek Civil War in 1948. In his next assignment as military attaché in Hong Kong, he found himself in the midst of three different communist insurgencies rocking Southeast Asia in the 1950s: Indochina, Malaya and the philippines. In February 1956, David Galula returned to France and volunteered to serve in Algeria. He first authored a lessons learned report concerning “pacification” in Kabylia, published in the US in 1963 under the title: Pacification in Algeria, 1956-1958, which was used as the underlying matrix for his masterpiece titled Counterinsurgency Warfare, Theory and Practice, published in 1964 with the support of the RAND Corporation 68. Galula and his works are valued highly by the Americans and serve as a kind of intellectual link between the pacifying visions of Gallieni and Lyautey and the British population-centric approach. Like Trinquier, Galula is convinced that These measures were exported to the American continent in the 1960s and 70s and were met with fierce criticism voiced by DRW opponents. See the book and TV report by Marie-Dominique Robin: Escadrons de la Mort, l’Ecole Française, La Découverte, 2004. 67 After being posted in Algeria, Galula was appointed to make a series of conferences for NATO American officers. At the end of 1959, he was sent to follow the courses of the Armed Forces Staff College in the US. 68 The French version of this work, Contre-insurrection, théorie et pratique, with a foreword by David H. Petraeus and John A. Nagl, is a translation by Philippe de Montenon, and was not published until 2008 by Economica. 66 47 Part 2 – An approach that finds common ground with French experiences the battle for the population is an essential feature of the “revolutionary war” where the population is the objective in and of itself. Operations focused on gaining the population’s support (for the insurgent), or at a minimum maintaining it in a state of submission (for the loyalist), remain primarily political in nature. Loyalists cannot achieve many of their goals if the population does not feel protected against the insurgent forces right from the very beginning. Control of the population is established in order to eliminate or at least significantly reduce contact between the population and the guerrilla movement. This is achieved through surveillance, curfew, requisitions, food control, or even population resettlements. The three objectives of population control are the following: • Restore the loyalists’ authority; • Isolate the guerrilla by physical means; • Collect intelligence that can be used to eliminate the opponent’s political cells. Galula endorses population control measures, but departs from Trinquier’s theories in that he considers that the armed forces are a tool among many other options in the hands of the political power. It is essential, he states, for the latter to remain in the hands of the counterinsurgency struggle. The prerogative to exercise political power requires only the tacit or explicit agreement of the population. Attempting to achieve submission is a minimum obligation; the loyalist government must gain not only the approval of the population, but also its active participation in the fight against the insurgency. Hence Galula worked out his four laws for counterinsurgency: • Law #1: The population is essential. Supporting the population is the very first duty of the counterinsurgency campaign; it is impossible to defeat the insurgents and stop their recruiting actions without the population’s support; • Law #2: This popular support is gained via the support of an active minority, which accepts to support the counterinsurgency actively and must be supported in return for the effort to win the neutral majority over and neutralize the hostile minority. • Law #3: The population’s support remains conditioned by the way it is used; this support can be lost if the actions taken are unfavorable to the population; • Law #4: The struggle against the insurgency requires a high concentration of efforts, resources and personnel; progress is made from district to district according to the wellknown “oil spot” principle. According to Galula, the loyalist force will not be victorious if it merely destroys the insurgent forces and their political apparatus in a given region, which is the sole objective according to Trinquier’s theory: “If the insurgent forces are destroyed in a region, they will be rebuilt in another one; if both elements are destroyed, they will be rebuilt by actions taken by insurgents from abroad. Victory is not only this, but also the final break-up of the bonds between the insurgents and the population, not at the population’s expense, but with its support” 69. This wording is in line with the “winning hearts and minds” principle. For example, Galula suggests revitalizing local democracy by recruiting new leaders, installing them in positions of power, and then gathering them in a political party that meets the population’s expectations. 69 David Galula: Counterinsurgency Warfare, Theory and Practice, new edition RAND Corporation, 2005. 48 Part 2 – An approach that finds common ground with French experiences 2.3 – the experience of the “Sections Administratives Spécialisées” (SaS) in algeria The Algerian War was a turning point in France’s approach to anti-subversive warfare, where the military took over the management of the population matters. The French Army set up the first “Sections administratives spécialisées” (SAS) at the initiative of General Georges Parlange 70 in 1955. Their creation was made official by a decree dated September 26 th, 1955, signed by Jacques Soustelle. They officially rolled out on December 3 rd, 1957, while the “Sections administratives urbaines” (SAU), which were their urban equivalent, went live a few months later on February 4 th, 1958. The SAS resulted from the need to re-establish contact with a population and territories that were acknowledged at the time as being clearly under-managed. In the “Guide de l’Officier des Affaires Algériennes” of 1957, the following observation was made: “The rebellion would have probably not broken out or would have been quickly crushed if it had not found a suitable breeding ground that had been created by our own shortfalls: • Lack of infrastructure in many rural areas (roads, water supply, schools, housing, etc.); • Poor administration in those same areas; • Loss of contact; • Poor knowledge of Islamic culture and mindset”. These State military auxiliaries are exactly that in nature. They exercise the powers of the civil authority if the latter is not present or has failed, and they are not intended to be in charge over the long-term. In their short operational lifespan, the SAS were committed in administrative, civic, social, medical, educational and youth mentoring actions, with one guiding principle: “convince rather than compel”. The SAS were not humanitarian organizations by design. They were supposed to be a starting point for the “conquest of hearts and war of ideas” 71. Each SAS was composed as follows: • One officer, serving as SAS commander; • One NCO or a civilian contractor acting as his deputy; • Three Algerian Affairs Service attachés (actually civilian contractors: one secretary/accountant, one secretary/interpreter and one radio operator); General Parlange also invented of the “assembly camps” in Algeria, which were the French version of the British and American “strategic hamlets”. 71 1st Lieutenant Lasconjarias and 2 nd Lieutenant Jouan: Les Sections administratives spécialisées et leur action en Algérie: un outil pour la stabilisation, Cahier de la recherche doctrinale CDEF, 2005. 70 49 Part 2 – An approach that finds common ground with French experiences • One “Maghzen”, which is a security detachment recruited by the SAS commander, generally composed of 30 to 50 men of both Muslim and European origin; • Whenever possible, one or more female assistants from the Algerian Affairs Service, who were in charge of social programs that benefitted Muslim families. An SAS generally had between 10,000 and 20,000 inhabitants in its area of responsibility. The main functions devoted to the SAS were to strengthen the influence of France among the Algerian population, to separate it from the influence of the National Liberation Front (NLF) insurgency and to take part in intelligence and security restoration operations. The latter was most often done with the assistance of its Maghzen and its connections with the combat units. The SAS took part in the economic reconstruction of their area of responsibility. To that end, SAS personnel were required to be “civilians among soldiers, and soldiers among civilians”. Evaluating the overall effectiveness of the 700 SAS remains open for debate. An SAS was often an efficient tool that was tailored to its environment, though it was very much dependent on the personality of its commander and the quality of its personnel, most of whom were trained on the job. This unit reported to two chains of command: one civil, the other military; a fact which sometimes caused conflicts of interest. The shortfalls in coordination observed in the “quadrillage” units on the ground, as well as the lack of any coherent broader policy at regional level, both decreased the impact of actions undertaken by Sections administratives spécialisées to “win hearts and minds”. Their incompatibility with “hard” military practices, like the contradiction between their vision of the integration of Muslims, of Europe-dominated French Algeria and of independence, was patent. 50 Part 2 – An approach that finds common ground with French experiences C hapter III – C OunterInSurgenCy In the S tabIlIzatIOn p haSe In the 21st century, “stabilization” has become the new name for “pacification”. The doctrine of the French Army today refers to “contre-rébellion” (“CREB”) rather than “counterinsurgency”, as the Americans and the British do. Of course, the word “insurrection” exists in both languages 72. The French term rébellion is rather the equivalent of “insurgency” 73. In France, CREB was developed over time with successive contributions, relying heavily on the legacy of Gallieni and Lyautey and their famous “oil spot”, as well as the general principles concerning actions among the population as established by Trinquier and Galula. There has also been some cross-pollination with the new COIN doctrines jointly developed in the uS and the uk. In 2009, France’s CDEF, the Forces Employment Doctrine Center, published a CREB doctrine 74 in order to fill the void in adapted tactical processes between the conventional coercive methods and population control methods in the security restoration phase. The introduction of this handbook notes that “insurgencies do not have military objectives; instead, they have political goals. Consequently, they create asymmetrical conditions at the tactical level which rely upon the population as both the principal actor and prize of the conflict. War conducted in the midst of the population, otherwise known as guerilla warfare, has an essential place in today’s conflicts as an alternative means of action. The French Armed Forces are rediscovering this type of action which had fallen into disuse but has been revived by our engagement in Afghanistan”. 3.1 – the doctrinal evolution: from the “War within the Crowd” to “Stabilisation” Fifty years before the population-centric approach of General Sir Rupert Smith, in the Revue de la défense nationale published in June 1956, French Colonel Jean Némo, a theorist of counterinsurgency à la française, used the expression “war within the crowd” to describe the situation of the troops engaged at the time in Indochina and Algeria. He meant that modern wars now took place “among the population” and required a new way of strategic thinking. This theory of three phases 75 of engagement was formalized by Major general de Saqui de Sannes, then commander of France’s Military Doctrine and Post-Graduate Teaching Command (“CDES”), and picked up by the latest French doctrinal papers of the time 76. In the first phase, identified as the “initial intervention on the crisis theater of operations”, the expeditionary Large-scale popular upheaval. This mass violence is not within the scope of French contre-rébellion (CREB). Armed violence expressed under the form of terrorism and/or guerrilla. In this restricted meaning, COIN and CREB are synonymous. 74 English title: Counterinsurgency at the Tactical Level. 75 They are fully in line with the American and British doctrines of the three-block war: coercion, stabilization and assistance. 76 CDEF: Doctrine for the Employment of Land Forces in Stabilization Operations, November 2006, Winning the Battle – Building Peace, Land Forces in Present and Future Conflicts, January 2007 and Doctrine for Counterinsurgency at the Tactical Level, January 2009. 72 73 51 Part 2 – An approach that finds common ground with French experiences corps deploys and neutralizes enemy forces. The second phase, “stabilization”, aims at stabilizing the area in order to restore the social situation that had previously been disrupted. The third phase, “normalization”, restores the political balance. Stabilization is defined as one the crisis management processes that aims to restore the normal conditions of viability of a state or a region, by putting an end to violence as a means of protest and establishing the conditions for a return to normal daily life by initiating a civil reconstruction process77. As quoted from another CDEF publication titled Winning the Battle – Building Peace (FT 01), published in 2007: “There is not one single conflict where the civilian population does not find itself at the heart of the military concerns of all parties involved. Thus, changing from a world where the civilian population constituted “the rear” – as opposed to the front, in essence a military zone – nowadays, the armed forces operate among and in reference to it. Military forces have entered an age of conducting war operations among populations. Since the stake is human society, its governance, its social contract, its institutions, rather than such and such a province, river or border, there no longer exists a line or terrain to conquer or protect. The front is multidimensional and encompasses the whole theatre of operations. To be effective, the use of force cannot be dissociated from what the people, plunged into disarray, chaos and arbitrariness, expect of it”. FT 01 also borrows several principles from Gallieni and Lyautey: “it is in the village that has been secured by force that one will need to re-establish normal living conditions, recreate markets and send children to school. The fickle crowd that welcomes or opposes has the capacity to change sides as the result of a sign, image or order. On the spot diplomacy and military action are closely interrelated and form two aspects of the soldier in operations”. As far as on site diplomacy is concerned, is this not just another reference to “winning hearts and minds”? A 2007 staff paper went a long way towards encapsulating this concept. It very explicitly mentioned the “conquest of hearts and minds” as one of the basic requirements for meeting its military commitments 78. It describes the six prerequisites for the engagement of a coalition against an asymmetric opponent: • The legitimacy of the commitment according to the public opinion; • The adaptability of the structures and courses of action; • The controlled use of force; This definition is adopted by the French Concept of Contribution of the Armed Forces to Stabilization (PIA 00-151). 78 Working document of the Joint Forces Center for Concept Development, Doctrine and Experimentation (CICDE) with the following title: Réflexions doctrinales – Options militaires pour vaincre un ennemi irrégulier, July 2007. 77 52 Part 2 – An approach that finds common ground with French experiences • The battle for relevance and perception; • The systematic consideration of the population; • The population must remain the focus of the main effort 79. From the outset, the local population must immediately be convinced of the merits of the actions conducted by the armed forces. These actions rely on a sustained political project. The aim is not to initiate administrative reforms or social and economic measures, but to undertake the ambitious project of “shaping” of the local population. “Winning hearts and minds” here takes on a particularly volontarist aspect: • Win over the population to our side and to offer incentives to provide information; • In doing so, take their expectations into consideration; • Influence the “minds” of the asymmetric opponent, in order to trigger reactions that are favorable to our side; • Reassure the “minds” of the neutral and non-committed segments of the population; • Destroy the opponent’s image as victim. Neither the expression “winning hearts and minds” nor the bold idea of “shaping” were employed in the final version of the document, called Concept des opérations contre un adversaire irrégulier (PIA 00-180) 80, which was published on May 22 nd, 2008. The similarly inspired Concept de contribution des forces armées à la stabilisation (PIA 00-151) 81, published on February 2 nd, 2010, announced a national joint counterinsurgency doctrine. PIA 00-151 clearly defines the concept of “gaining the support of the local authorities and population”: “In a given theater of operations, the armed forces” actions are not restricted merely to preserving the legitimacy of the intervention. They also contribute to transferring the recovery process into the hands of the local authorities and population. The force must seek to preserve or win over the support of the large majority of the population to the international community’s action, and in particular to the intervention force’s action”. This fundamental requirement for military action is one of the five adopted by the French doctrine of “stabilization”. The other four tenets are: the preservation of the action’s legitimacy, the preservation of credibility, a common understanding regarding the rules of engagement and the aim of unity of effort. Items 1 to 3 are in line with the British counterinsurgency doctrine. Item 4 is directly taken over from the ideas of retired General Loup Francart on the “war of relevance” and the “action in psychological fields”. Items 5 and 6 are clearly population-centric and in line with French tradition. 80 Concept of Operations against an Asymmetric Opponent. 81 Concept of Contribution of Armed Forces to Stabilization. 79 53 Part 2 – An approach that finds common ground with French experiences These basic requirements result from NATO concepts and are based on the following eight principles of action: • “Learn and adapt”: understand the environment and adapt to it; • Anticipate the stabilization phase from planning of the very first response; • Seek synergy of effort with other actors while preserving the specificity of the military role; • Operate in close contact with the population; • Influence perceptions; • Act quickly and ensure sustainability of effort; • Find the balance between acting as a deterring force to insurgents and deferring to local forces when possible; • Favor the concentration of effects. Two of these principles are clearly population-centric: operating in close contact with the population and influencing perceptions. Both are further developed in Annex 2 of this study. 3.2 – restoring Security in the theater of Operations among the population (CREB) 82 The CREB manual published in January 2009 by France’s Forces Employment Doctrine Center (CDEF) also refrains from claiming any “shaping” of “hearts and minds”. The conduct of CREB must first produce a political effect, primarily the restoration of security in the theater of operations through actions taken among (and not on) the population 83. The additional effect to be achieved is operational in nature: the neutralization of insurgents through kinetic warfare. The principal stake in this struggle remains, first and foremost, the population. This is the reason why the first pillar in the struggle against an insurgency is based upon actions among the population. The desired objective is to deprive the enemy forces of any argument against the loyalist government by re-establishing normalcy to the running of the country. Therefore, when the insurgents taking advantage of the “deterioration” of the situation are neutralized, the resulting security favors reestablishment of the norm 84. The nature of operations to be conducted requires mastering interaction with the population, showing great flexibility of maneuver and also a capacity to adapt to any type of threat. Moreover, ground forces participate in the control of the level of violence by showing their presence and by maintaining public order, so as to isolate the insurgents and ensure security 85. These actions have multiple repercussions, especially in urban areas. It is important to predict and measure them in order to control their consequences. They must therefore be accompanied by complementary military actions designed to explain and justify them. They are usually The paragraphs in Section 3.2 of this chapter are taken from Part 2 of the Doctrine de Contre-Rébellion (CREB) (English title: Doctrine for Counterinsurgency at the Tactical Level). 83 According to the author, “action on” means is more like to the aforementioned “modeling” of the population. 84 This was Roger Trinquier’s vision. 85 Adaptability and controlled use of force are put forward, as the British do. 82 54 Part 2 – An approach that finds common ground with French experiences conducted by Psychological Operations (PSYOPS) detachments 86. They are often conducted in concert with social efforts designed to provide the population with the material and moral assistance they need to return to normal life 87. The actions of ground forces should have the general effect of keeping the armed insurgency away from controlled areas and disrupting the organization of the insurgency’s structure. The prevention and protection missions of general public security typically fall under the jurisdiction of police forces, provided they have sufficient means available. If not, the armed forces must complement them or assume their role. The two types of coercive actions envisaged by the French CREB are establishing the security of geographic spaces and populations, to be carried out according to the “oil spot” principle, and the dismantling of the insurgents’ organization through the traditional measures of population control and the establishment of an intelligence collection network. The struggle against propaganda calling for armed insurgency must be actively carried out by government authorities and by the force itself as part of a comprehensive information plan. 3.3 – the Civil-Military actions of the french forces in afghanistan (Kapisa-Surobi area: 2009-2010) The NATO International Security and Assistance Force (ISAF) was formed in 2002 by its coalition partners in Afghanistan. It has defined three different lines of operations: security, governance and development. The French contingent is currently composed of some 3,000 soldiers 88 and has been operating since November 1st, 2009, as “Task Force Lafayette”, under the supervision of Regional Command East (RC East) in the provinces of kapisa and Surobi 89, some 60 kilometers east of Kabul. It is mainly involved in security matters. This is due to the assumption that no progress is possible in the fields of governance and reconstruction in this very hostile and dangerous zone. Accordingly, the following missions were given to the French CIMIC forces: • Contribute to restoring security in the Kapisa-Surobi area, especially by improving the acceptance among the population of the contingent’s presence; • Reinforce the power of the local authorities by involving them in the planning, realization and monitoring of projects; Légende Site militaire Route principale Route secondaire Piste Kapisa-Surobi Commandements régionaux Province District Their information operations aim at influencing the perceptions of the population in order to support the action of the land forces. 87 This phrasing recalls David Galula and the Sections administratives spécialisées (SAS) in Algeria. 88 The total personnel strength of the PAMIR mission amounts to 3,764 soldiers. 89 The Surobi district, in which a French battalion was deployed, was put under the command of RC East on November 1st, 2009. Like the Kapisa district, it is a historical stronghold of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar’s Hezbi Islami, the Islamist mujahideen political party. The Taliban have also established solid strongholds, often to the detriment of the Hezbi. 86 55 Part 2 – An approach that finds common ground with French experiences • participate in the improvement of the Afghan standard of living; • Establish liaisons between the force and the community in order to boost awareness and support of the contingent’s mission. The French political action initially aims at establishing contact with official players in order to discuss with them the types of military and/or development actions that are best suited for the local environment. This action is also particularly careful in co-opting influential personalities who are both identified as interlocutors with the population, and as potential interfaces with the insurgents. This political commitment is extended to the population through CIMIC actions, through contacts established by detachments on patrol or via radio broadcasts. The aim is to increase the support of the loyalist government through the population and gain support gradually in insurgency-controlled areas. Military action is subordinated to political action. It aims to deter rather than to induce combat. In combat situations, rather than seeking the attrition of enemy forces, it must foil the enemy’s plans in plain view of the population 90. Its own self-imposed rules are to avoid civilian casualties, to work in close collaboration with the Afghan National Army (ANA), to hold captured terrain and never to disengage under fire 91. In Kapisa, the relationship with the population has clearly improved in the Tagab Valley during 2010. This attracted the attention of both the insurgents and the coalition since the heavily trafficked Main Supply Road (MSR) Vermont passes through it. This road is an alternative route to the Northern provinces avoiding Kabul. Civil-military action, which focuses on development microprojects 92, initially focused on aiding the marginalized population of Alakozai Pashtun ethnic origin in the southern part of the valley, which has traditionally been neutral or friendly in many instances, prior to expanding to the North, according to the “oil spot” principle, into Safi Pashtun dominated areas. Many attempts were made to collaborate with the non-Pashtun Pachaie tribe that inhabits the nearby mountains. To compensate for the small number of judges and policemen in the district of Tagab, the CIMIC action included a reinforcement of the traditional judicial system that included the establishment of militias to protect MSR Vermont as part of the Road Maintenance Initiative. Their members are recruited from local tribes 93. While insurgent pressure has been loosened in the Tagab Valley, it remains strong in the neighboring valleys of Alasay, Shpe and Bedrao. The Taliban have retreated here in a defensive posture. In the Afghanya Valley, the insurgency has intensified. In the Surobi district of Kabul province, the situation remains closely dependent on infiltrations from the neighboring district of Mihtarlam, in Laghman province, where certain locations are used as insurgent assembly areas. Lessons learned by Colonel Benoît Durieux in the Surobi province. Lieutenant Colonel Meunier, 2 nd Régiment étranger parachutiste, quoted by Le Figaro on April 26 th, 2010. 92 School refurbishment, well-drilling, agricultural irrigation, construction of footbridges and food storage buildings, etc. 93 Often former Hezbi Pashtuns who used to support Gulbuddin Hekmatyar’s Hezbi Islami, a secondary insurgency element, often compared to the Taliban. 90 91 56 Part 2 – An approach that finds common ground with French experiences In Kapisa-Surobi, the French decided to maintain their enabling and mentoring role to the benefit of all local actors 94: soldiers, police, public servants, elders, and the population itself. The aim is not to “shape” them, but rather to “let the Afghan soul express itself ” 95. The expression “winning hearts and minds” is not used in this environment: Brigadier General Maurice Druart, who commanded Task Force Lafayette from November 1st, 2009 to April 30 th, 2010, denounced this phrase as having an “oppressive marketing approach to the Afghan population”. Like Colonel Benoît Durieux, who commanded the French battalion in Surobi from July 2008 until January 2009, he prefers to use the expression “setting hearts and minds free”. Since the objective is not to defeat the insurgency but to enable the Afghan authorities to regain the control of their territory and population, the French military try not to induce a permanent state of belligerence. The French command in Kapisa-Surobi, instead of carrying out counterinsurgency measures, prefers to implement “a more conventional model, that of a limited conflict in which military actions and political negotiations alternate. The objectives remain limited and focused on territorial control, and the population is more an arbitrator than the stake itself ”. This posture, focused more on mentoring than transforming the human environment, is justified as long as the actors remain in clearly confined geographic areas and the stakes consequently limited. Nevertheless, should the Taliban insurgency decide to transform the Surobi province into a testing ground for its capability to expand into Kabul’s outlying areas and to take root in the densely populated area of Kapisa, or should external elements such as Pakistani or global jihads, whose presence has already been detected in the area, mingle with the insurgents and tribesmen in Kapisa-Surobi, this soft version of French CREB will no longer be sufficient. In this case, a whole new set of counter-guerrilla and counterterrorism actions will be required. Reference to violence control, which was very fashionable at the end of the 90s prior to the resurfacing of counterinsurgency ideas: General (ret.) Loup Francart restricted the employment of forces to “soft missions”, in which the aim was to decrease tensions and assist international peacekeeping. 95 Interview of General Maurice Druart by the author. 94 57 Part 2 – An approach that finds common ground with French experiences Conclusion of part 2: In Algeria, French actions took a heavy toll on the insurgency. They won the “Battle of Algiers” in 1957 and cornered the FLN from a military point of view. DRW, then a mainly coercive process, apart from for the population-centric SAS experiment, drew upon lessons learned from the Indochina War while capitalizing on the legacy of “pacification” developed by Gallieni and Lyautey. The turn of events in France, followed by the referendum that granted independence to Algeria – in very different conditions from those experienced by the British in Malaya – overshadowed this military success, though it highlights a basic prerequisite elucidated by Galula: the indomitable primacy of politics. In the course of the intervention in Afghanistan, the French military is rediscovering counterinsurgency among rural Muslim populations during “stabilization” missions. Doctrine is continually adapting to the new environment while drawing on lessons from the past. The French contingent is as strong in terms of manpower as the British contingent in Pashtun Helmand. They operate in Kapisa-Surobi, a multiethnic area where tribal structures are still robust and the population is dense, though administrative structures remain insufficient. Therefore it is not in France’s best interest to revive the SAS program to “win hearts and minds” – an expression that still raises reservations among the French military – but rather to assist the Afghan state in imposing its own legitimacy. 58 PART 3 uniTed sTATes: once discRediTed, debATed And Redefined model, AGAin PRevAilinG Counterinsurgency tactics, heavily influenced by British and French theories, first appeared in the US Army Field Manual (FM 100-5, Operations) in 1962. The American version of “winning hearts and minds” was quickly put to the test in Vietnam soon thereafter. US strategy relegated it to a backup role, while the administration in Washington discredited the method, considering it to be a mere public relations ploy. In the US, the concept would not see the light of day again until the mid 1990s. A decade later, the population-centric approach made its way to center stage, be it as a matter of principle or as a “last chance” solution. It has been updated and defended by a new generation of officers following General David H. Petraeus in the wake of the protracted armed interventions in Afghanistan and in Iraq, both campaigns having been launched by President George W. Bush. 59 Part 3 – United States: once discredited, debated and redefined model, again prevailing C hapter I – d ISCredIt In v IetnaM The second Vietnam War (1964-1975) no doubt constitutes a turning point in the history of the United States, comparable in many ways to the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941, or the terrorist attacks in New York and Washington on September 11th, 2001. Not truly “defeated”, but unable to win against the will of a small Third World nation, the US found itself trapped in a “dirty war”. At that time, the war’s influence reached far beyond any combat zone. It was of interest not just to Southeast Asian nations, but also to the major powers of China, the USSR and the US, who considered the stakes of the conflict to be of particular importance. It was also viewed as a testing ground that revealed internal tensions in the US. Within Western society, the link between the Vietnam War and the major civilization crisis from 1964 to 1970 cannot be ignored. In the US, the escalation of the conflict in Vietnam and its hardships heralded the “end of innocence” in both domestic and foreign politics. To the chagrin of the few military men who believed that a COIN strategy should be based on “winning hearts and minds”, the fact that intervention doctrines at the time were wholly inadequate and that the Army and Marine Corps doctrine tended towards “search and destroy”, the entire effort was bound to fail. A complex bureaucracy and a disdain for the political aspects of the conflict deprived the genuinely population-centric Civil Operations and Revolutionary Development Support (CORDS) program of any visibility. To make matters worse, the American public felt there was a tremendous divergence between the violent reality of the war and the “hearts and minds” mantra that was repeated in the administration’s domestic communications. This had a sustained negative effect on the entire concept’s credibility and helped foster a pacifist protest movement. 1.1 – COrdS: a program Overshadowed by a “dirty War” After the French withdrawal from Vietnam, the 1954 Geneva Accords planned general elections that would have allowed a reunification of North and South Vietnam. The Washington-supported Saigon government, led by the ultra-conservative Ngo Dinh Diem, refused to hold these elections. His policy triggered growing opposition among the working class and also within the Buddhist clergy. The National Liberation Front (NLF or “Viet Cong”) then published its manifesto, which was principally inspired by communism. The NLF, which was supported by North Vietnam, increased the tempo of its guerilla operations. Concerned about the situation that was developing, US President John F. kennedy sent thousands of “military advisors” 96 to Vietnam and also encouraged the 1963 coup d’état that overthrew Diem, whom he regarded as being too dictatorial. President Lyndon B. Johnson would further escalate American involvement. 96 Kennedy moved from the limited commitment with the 685 advisors laid out in the Geneva Accords to an unlimited commitment. On May 11th, 1961, he authorized the deployment of US Special Forces, the first anti-guerilla forces trained by the CIA. 61 Part 3 – United States: once discredited, debated and redefined model, again prevailing In order to support the military dictatorship of generals Minh, ky and Thieu, who were Diem’s successors in Saigon, Washington steadily increased the number of American troops in Vietnam, peaking at 500,000 in 1968. During this period, clashes between the American forces, the NLF and the North Vietnamese intensified. The uS Air Force’s B-52s heavily bombed North Vietnam, which was struck by more bombs than Germany was throughout all of WWII. None of these facts diminished the determination of the Viet Cong guerrilla movement, who were well equipped with Chinese and Soviet armament. The fact that “search and destroy” methodology was so heavily relied upon and that the war become ever more protracted and intense led to an increasing level of violence: whole populations were deported and corralled into “strategic hamlets”, carpet bombing was commonly used, entire towns were burned down with napalm, vegetation was destroyed with defoliants and other chemicals and a significant number of NLF leaders were killed during the anti-subversive Phoenix operation. When Hanoi launched the Tet offensive on January 31st, 1968, the US realized that victory was just as unlikely as defeat. This offensive proved difficult and costly for the Americans to counter, and served to highlight the fact that that a US victory in Vietnam would require a “total war” that was certain to be very costly in terms of casualties, money and prestige. In the US, public opinion grew more and more hostile towards the war. In March 1968, President Johnson announced simultaneously that he would stop bombing targets in North Vietnam if a peace conference were opened in Paris, and that he would not run for a second term in the White House. Getting the US out of the mire of Vietnam was left to his successor, President Richard Nixon. Seven years later, Saigon fell to the communist North on April 30 th, 1975, signifying their victory. The intensity of “kinetic” operations during “The Big War” and the outcome of vietnamization overshadowed the results of the Americans” only counterinsurgency program that was really and truly focused on the population. Owing to the efforts of Bob “Blowtorch” korner, this innovative but belated program called Civil Operations and Revolutionary Development Support (CORDS) was officially launched on May 1st, 1967. Jointly managed by the South Vietnamese government and the American Military Assistance Command in Vietnam (MACV) CORDS brought all CIMIC programs together under one roof. US Ambassador William Colby, who took charge of the program in 1968, used CORDS to extend and broaden the base of the anti-subversive Phoenix plan. CORDS linked the implementation of socio-economic projects to human intelligence collection (HUMINT) activities, with the objective of meeting the population’s material needs in order to better separate it from the hidden Viet Cong infrastructure 97. Sadly, CORDS started too late and ended too soon; but, everywhere it was implemented, this program appears to have triggered the decline of the NLF’s influence. Ambassador Colby indeed blamed the ultimate failure in Vietnam on the gap between the “American way of waging war” and the necessities required by the transformation of the rural society. He regarded these necessities as the “conditions for peace and stability” that were indeed the core of the CORDS program 98. 97 98 Richard A. Hurt: Pacification – The American Struggle for Vietnam’s Hearts and Minds, Westview Press, 1998. William Colby, with James McCargar: Lost Victory: A First-Hand Account of America’s Sixteen Year War in Vietnam, Contemporary Books, 1989. 62 Part 3 – United States: once discredited, debated and redefined model, again prevailing 1.2 – the Malaya example Imperfectly assimilated? “Draining the swamp” primarily by coercive means, deporting the population by force or simply terrorizing it, could not fail to provoke overall resentment, erode the people’s trust, and boost the communist guerillas’ recruiting. Indochina expert Bernard Fall 99, also a former WWII resistance fighter, war correspondent, doctor of political science and professor of international relations, concluded as early as 1964 that the US methods being applied in Vietnam would lead to failure, just like the French in Algeria before them: “Those who are interested in the current operations in South Vietnam will be surprised as they discover that their so-called new counterinsurgency techniques – be it the installation of strategic hamlets or large-scale pacification operations – are nothing but old-hat tactics. All that helicopters, insecticides, and heavy machine guns can do is increase the scale of the bloodshed, but they definitely do not change the nature of the struggle. Since the same causes create the same effects, the results cannot be any different if the political errors that France committed were to be copied by any other country at war”100. In Learning to Eat Soup with a Knife – Counterinsurgency Lessons from Malaya and Vietnam, retired Lieutenant Colonel John A. Nagl 101 compares the Vietnam experience from 1964 to 1975 with that of the British in Malaya from 1948 to 1960 102. He is convinced that “in order to put down an insurgency, one must know who the insurgents are. And to learn this one must win and keep the population’s support”. Nagl especially wonders about the ability of the armed forces to adapt to changes during conflicts for which they are not prepared. He feels the “organizational culture” is the key to its adaptability. This ability, which he believes to be part of their history and culture, could explain why the British so easily adopted the population-centric approach after 1951 during the Malayan Emergency. On the other hand, it is clear to him that the American military was unable to conduct the paradigm shift required to win in Vietnam. He quotes the then Army Chief of Staff and later Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Earle Wheeler, who stated in a speech at the Bernard Fall was killed in Vietnam during a sortie with a US Marines detachment in 1967. Excerpt from Bernard Fall’s introduction to Roger Trinquier’s masterpiece, English version: Modern Warfare. A French View of Counterinsurgency, Praeger, 1964. 101 Cavalry officer John A. Nagl taught strategy at the US Military Academy at West Point and was Military Assistant to the Deputy Secretary of Defense. The title of his 2002 book Learning to Eat Soup with a Knife, reprinted in 2005 after Nagl’s participation in the operations in the region of Khalidiyya during the intervention in Iraq (2003-2004), is derived from an aphorism by Colonel T.E. Lawrence, also known as “Lawrence of Arabia”. 102 Learning to Eat Soup with a Knife – Counterinsurgency Lessons from Malaya and Vietnam, Praeger, 2002 / reprinted Chicago University Press, 2005. 99 100 63 Part 3 – United States: once discredited, debated and redefined model, again prevailing Fordham University on November 7 th, 1962: that “It is fashionable in certain sectors to say that the difficulties in Southeast Asia are political and economic in the first place, rather that military. I don’t share that point of view. The essence of the Vietnam problem is of military nature” 103. The “organizational culture” under General William Westmoreland, who led the MACV from 1964 to 1968, was centered on the battlefield and not the population. According to Nagl, the replacement of General Westmoreland by General Creighton Abrams, on July 1st, 1968, could have changed the Americans’ strategic focus, since, unlike his predecessor, Abrams did not focus purely on the “body 104 count” . Abrams intended conversely to “bring security to the people”. To do so, US military operations should have endeavored to “neutralize the Viet Cong infrastructure and to separate the enemy from the people”. These provisions, however, were thwarted by the inaction of the military bureaucracy. 1.3 – a Misleading Slogan? One of the paradoxes of the Vietnam War is that never before had official speeches so often mentioned the objective of “winning hearts and minds”. In the midst of this demoralizing conflict that was so costly in human casualties, never before had “hearts and minds” seemed so distant from reality in the view of the public. President Lyndon B. Johnson used the “winning hearts and minds” phrase no less than 28 times between January 16 th, 1964 and August 19 th, 1968, including in front of heads of state and members of Congress. He also changed the order of the words to “minds and hearts” ten times. His use of the term was so frequent and widespread that by 1965, some commentators at the time ignored the British precedent in Malaya and considered Johnson to be the inventor of the counterinsurgency concept. On May 4th, 1965, during a speech made before managers of the Texas Electric Cooperatives Inc., the President John A. Nagl: Counterinsurgency in Vietnam, contribution to Counterinsurgency in Modern Warfare, collective work under the direction of Daniel Marston and Carter Malkasian, Osprey Publishing, 2008. 104 The expression stigmatizes the method that consists in deducing the success of a campaign from the number of casualties inflicted to the opponent without taking other facts into consideration, such as social, and economic factors. 103 64 Part 3 – United States: once discredited, debated and redefined model, again prevailing stated that even if the US were ready to fight in Vietnam, “the ultimate victory will depend on the hearts and the minds of the people who actually live out there” and that the fight “for the cause of freedom throughout the world” would be won by bringing them hope and by bringing them electricity 105. This slogan was repeated like a mantra, and was often accompanied by a series of positive references to the American nation’s history. One such commentary that Johnson relied upon came from founding father and second president John Adams, who was certain that revolutionary sentiment was present “in the hearts and minds of the American people”, even before the Revolutionary War. The president also recalled how helpful the slogan had been to Franklin Delano Roosevelt in the 1930s to unite the nation and to make it accept the economic reforms of the “New Deal”. Lyndon B. Johnson transferred this slogan into foreign policy just as John F. kennedy had done before him when speaking to the US Congress on April 2 nd, 1963, hoping that his country’s Latin America policy would be able to rest on the will to bring about change of the Latin American peoples themselves: “Perhaps most significant of all is a change in the hearts and minds of the people – a growing will to develop their countries. We can only help Latin Americans to save themselves”. Finally, it cannot be excluded that Johnson, desperately in need of legitimacy after having succeeded Kennedy under the sudden and dramatic circumstances of his assassination in Dallas on November 22 nd, 1963, wanted to imitate the manner in which the 26 th US President Theodore Roosevelt had cemented his extraordinary popularity largely using good publicity. Asked in 1906 by future General Douglas MacArthur, at the time a lieutenant and his aide-decamp, what had been the secret of his success with respect to the American public, Roosevelt answered that he had the ability to “to put into words what is in their hearts and minds, but not in their mouth”. Despite Johnson’s frequent use and abuse of the “winning hearts and minds” concept, the public became aware through radio and TV broadcasts that the military considered the solution to be: “more bombs, more shells, more napalm... till the other side cracks and gives up” 106. “Winning hearts and minds” became considered to be a euphemism that hid the truly brutal character of a coercive war, a character that was vulgarly summed up by an anonymous, though insightful American colonel: “If you have them by the balls, their hearts and minds will follow”! After 1968, the term “winning hearts and minds” became so discredited that British Marshal Templer, who had previously defended this strategy in Malaya, began to distance himself from “this despicable phrase he thought he had invented” as he was quoted by Singapore newspaper The Straits Times on March 27 th, 1968. Lyndon B. Johnson: “So we must be ready to fight in Vietnam, but the ultimate victory will depend on the hearts and the minds of the people who actually live out there. By helping to bring them hope and electricity you are also striking a very important blow for the cause of freedom throughout the world”. 106 Major General William E. DePuy, 1st US Infantry Division, in 1966: “The solution in Vietnam is more bombs, more shells, more napalm... till the other side cracks and gives up”, cited by John A. Nagl. 105 65 Part 3 – United States: once discredited, debated and redefined model, again prevailing A feature-length documentary, produced in 1974 and titled “Hearts and Minds”, locked in place all the negative connotations now linked to the concept. The film, made by Peter Davis, was awarded the Academy Award for Best Feature Documentary in 1975. It laid bare any and all contradictions and misrepresentations made by American civil and military authorities concerning Vietnam policy 107. At the Oscar award ceremony in April 1975, co-producer and the anti-war activist Bert Schneider launched a nationwide debate by reading aloud a message of “Greetings of Friendship to all American People” issued by the Vietcong delegation to the Paris Peace Accords that sought to end the conflict. The movie was allowed to be distributed and shown 108 despite lawsuits filed by some of the persons interviewed, including former Assistant for National Security Affairs Walt Rostow, who felt that the movie was deceptive and that many statements made within had been taken out of context. One of the most shocking statements is the following: “We had to destroy the village to save it”, attributed to an American serviceman after the destruction of Ben Tre on February 7 th, 1968. 108 The provocative filmmaker Michael Moore cites Hearts and Minds among his movie inspirations. 107 66 Part 3 – United States: once discredited, debated and redefined model, again prevailing C hapter II – r ehabIlItatIOn In I raK David H. Petraeus never served in Vietnam, having been commissioned out of West Point only in 1974. But just like other officers of his generation who have pursued advanced degrees in parallel to their military careers, Petraeus has learned the lessons that the US military drew from the Vietnam conflict 109. Back from a first tour of duty in Iraq (2003-2004), he initiated a full overhaul of America’s counterinsurgency doctrine together with retired Lieutenant Colonel John A. Nagl and Australian Lieutenant Colonel David Kilcullen, 110 both meticulous readers of David galula’s works, during the time when General Petraeus commanded the Combined Arms Center at Fort Leavenworth from 2005 through 2007. This led to the publication of a joint Army and Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Field Manual (FM 3-24). Heading the Multinational Force in Iraq (2007-2008) and then as the chief of the US Central Command (CENTCOM) 111 from October 31st, 2008, Petraeus put his theories into practice and reintroduced the “winning hearts and minds” concept. The “operational art” of the counterinsurgents, though it tries to take into account the geopolitical and social reality of the country, has yet to bring about a definite resolution to the conflict. It has, however won back a part of the Iraqi people’s trust and reassured the American public and its leadership of the legitimacy of the “troop surge” that was undertaken in Iraq in 2007. To attain certain COIN objectives, it was necessary to mobilize additional funds and to deploy significant troop reinforcements in a “troop surge”. The “COIN lobby”, having taken into account the lessons learned from America’s failure in Vietnam, won over both the Special Forces and all-technology lobbies. They convinced the Pentagon and the State Department of the necessity to adapt their structures and coordinate their efforts in order to focus on the population with a view to providing security and to reconstructing, which is the essence of the old “winning hearts and minds” slogan. This is, at least, the positive “narrative” that the media, echoing the words of the military experts in the “COIN lobby”, have molded into the prevailing politically correct opinion, giving little room to its “structural opponents”. This was the topic of the doctoral thesis he defended at the Princeton University in 1987. Bertrand Valeyre, Alexandre Guérin: op. cit. 111 Command that covers the countries of “arch of the Islamic crisis”, reaching from the Middle East to Central Asia. 109 110 67 Part 3 – United States: once discredited, debated and redefined model, again prevailing 2.1 – david Kilcullen’s new definition of the Concept and its use of Sociology Lieutenant Colonel David Kilcullen, attached to the US Government, served as counterinsurgency advisor to General Petraeus in Iraq in 2007 112. Now retired from service, he owes his current renown in the COIN domain to his original reflections that redefined and rehabilitated the population-centric approach. To Kilcullen, an irregular war is always a competition between two belligerents who both want to mobilize the people and want to win the fight for legitimacy. The use of force in this context must always remain the last recourse. “The people remain the prize”, just as much as the terrain on which the prize is at stake. While demographic and ethnographic factors are essential, the problems underlying any conflict tend to be global in nature. In 2006, Kilcullen provided junior officers deployed to Afghanistan and Iraq with a handbook that presented his ideas summarized in 28 articles 113 titled: Twenty-Eight Articles: Fundamentals of Company-Level Counterinsurgency. Among the articles, the 13th, “Build Trusted Networks”, calls for investment in social capital. According to French sociologist pierre Bourdieu, who passed away in 2002, social capital is one of the four types of power in a society; the others being coercion, economic domination, and authority. An individual holds social capital if he or she is able to reach its objectives by tapping into social networks. Identifying and associating with the individual or group of individuals with the ability to mobilize such power is exactly the task of the counterinsurgent in stabilization operations. Insurgencies thrive on the social networks that existed well before a given conflict (village, tribe, family, party, religious community, etc.) According to Kilcullen, COIN’s objective is to isolate insurgents from these networks and to replace their influence among the people by one’s own. Isolating insurgents from the people actually means manipulating social networks and exploiting cultural knowledge. Article 13 also offers a modern definition of the “winning hearts and minds” concept. “Winning hearts” means that you have to “persuade the people that the counterinsurgents success is in its own best interest, while ‘winning minds’ means that you have to persuade the people that the loyalist forces are able to protect them and that there is no point in resistance”. The counterinsurgents’ main effort is to mobilize the people with this framework as its starting point. The rest is secondary (from Self Interest, not Emotion, is What Counts. See Annex 1). Named US State Department Chief Strategist for Counter-Terrorism upon recommendation, he wrote the section on irregular conflicts of the July 2005 issue of the Pentagon’s Quadrennial Defense Review. Since his return from Iraq, he has collaborated with various think tanks, including the Center for a New American Security (CNAS). Today, he has his own auditing and consulting group, CAERUS Associates. 113 These 28 fundamentals of counterinsurgency are a tribute to the T.E. Lawrence’s 27 Articles of Desert Guerilla Warfare of 1917. 112 68 Part 3 – United States: once discredited, debated and redefined model, again prevailing Using sociological vocabulary, Kilcullen states that the principle of COIN is to “bring about human security 114 to the people, not to destroy the insurgent enemy” 115. Rather than speaking about control of the population, he prefers to invoke “population-centric security”, based on: • Continuous presence in population centers; • partnership with community leaders; • The establishment of local self-defense militias; • The operation of small units keeping the enemy at a distance in liaison with the security forces. 2.2 – the “petraeus doctrine” (from fM 3-24 to the Iraq troop Surge) The uS Counterinsurgency Manual (FM 3-24), published in December 2006 and co-authorized by Army General David H. Petraeus and Marine Corps General James F. Amos 116 relies heavily on the ideas of Kilcullen. The 28 fundamentals it identifies, along with Article 13, which defines the “hearts and minds” concept, have been encapsulated as Annex A (A Guide for Action). Annex A encourages soldiers to network with the various members of the community, such as local allies, security forces, notable elites, NGOs, non-governmental actors, the media, etc. They are encouraged to conduct inquiries in the villages to identify how to satisfy the basic needs of the people, and in doing so establish a relationship of trust. Any inappropriate action 117 that weakens this trust or destroys these networks is prohibited since it will only help the insurgent enemy. Defining a threefold “Clear, Hold, Build” method of operation to follow the “Shape” phase 118, FM 3-24 applies the principles previously identified by Frenchman David Galula and the British school of counterinsurgency 119. According to the “Petraeus Doctrine”, the three objectives of the COIN are as follows: According to Stéphane Taillat, and Mary Kaldor, professor of political science at the London School of Economics (LSE), there is some debate that “human security” and “restoring security” are synonyms. See Mary Kaldor: Human Security: Reflections on Globalization and Intervention, Polity Press, 2007. 115 David Kilcullen: The Accidental Guerrilla – Fighting Small Wars in the Midst of the Big One, Oxford University Press, 2009. 116 For whom the manual is registered as MCWP 3-33.5. The collaboration of General James N. Mattis of the US Marine Corps was decisive until he was succeeded by General James F. Amos. 117 In Article 13, Kilcullen refutes the systematic elimination of “high value targets”. Article A-26 of the annex to FM 3-24 reflects this provision, does not pick up this formulation but instead makes reference quite unemotionally to “measures that will generate a short-term military advantage”. 118 See Part 1, Chapter III, 3.2, that deals with the British counterinsurgency. 119 Traditionally, the “Clear” and “Hold” phases are attributed to Frank Kitson, whereas the “Build” concept is often credited to Galula. In the introduction, the authors of the FM 3-24 praise the works of both Thompson and Galula. 114 69 Part 3 – United States: once discredited, debated and redefined model, again prevailing • Creating a secure physical and psychological environment; • Establishing firm government control of the population and the terrain; • Gaining the support of the population. The major tasks of the counterinsurgents consist primarily of bringing about permanent security, ending the insurgent presence, reinforcing “political primacy”, restoring order by enforcement of the law, and reconstructing the institutions of the host nation, also known as “nation building”. The counterinsurgent must take advantage of all opportunities to satisfy the expectations and the basic needs of the population and ensure that their efforts are widely noticed, following the basic maxim that “actions speak louder than words”. Just like France’s now-defunct Doctrine of Revolutionary War (DRW), US counterinsurgency doctrine allows for population control measures and information operations meant to support the intelligence collection. The “petraeus Doctrine” was first implemented in Iraq in 2007. General Petraeus had come to believe that the war in this country, the dynamics of which the Pentagon had previously never had a hold on 120, was more like a contest “to win over the people” than a key piece of the Bush administration’s “Global War on Terror” (GWOT). Studies financed by the RAND Corporation, perhaps the think tank most favorable to COIN since the 1960s, have confirmed his postulate 121. Together with David Kilcullen and an entourage of highly talented senior officers selected by Petraeus himself, the general proposed the following six essential axes to “win hearts and minds” in Iraq: • Set up an integrated and consistent political strategy in cooperation with all state actors involved; • Restore within the people a tangible feeling that their security is assured; • Build alliances at the local level in order to reinforce the fabric of civil society; • Set up community militias in the Sunni community capable of defending themselves, in order to marginalize extremists; • Establish liaison with insurgents who are prepared to reconcile (whilst eliminating the irreconcilable); • Persuade the people, the government and international public opinion that the measures being taken are justified 122. In order to conduct projects that are essential to community development, aimed at gaining the support of the population, the military commanders on the ground receive funds from the Commander’s Emergency Response program (CERp), for which John A. Nagl, among others, is full of praise. According to him, CERP makes it possible to “win hearts twice, first by The Sunnite population, in particular, felt prejudiced by the “debaathification” of “proconsul” Paul Bremer and a number of Sunnis joined the insurgency that General Casey was struggling to contain. 121 The RAND Corporation: Conducting Counterinsurgency Operations – Lessons from Iraq (2003-2006). 122 This enumeration was given by David Kilcullen, in a presentation regarding the “Petraeus Doctrine” in Iraq during an international colloquium at the French Military Academy at Saint-Cyr on May 12 th and 13 th, 2009, titled Winning the hearts and Minds of Iraqi people? Speech transcript by Michel Goya. 120 70 Part 3 – United States: once discredited, debated and redefined model, again prevailing fixing the essential parts of the infrastructure, then by employing the local who would otherwise have become easy prey to insurgents”123. Improving living conditions and assisting in intelligence collection are the priorities of this program, which somewhat resembles a decentralized version of the Vietnam-era CORDS program. Dominant opinion in the US, both among experts in counterinsurgency and more widely, has been shaped by positive media coverage. It is considered that the “population-centric” strategy, through a series of judicious actions, both military (kinetic) and civilian (non-kinetic), alongside the role of major local and regional players, has made it possible to reduce to a certain extent the number of security incidents. They also helped separate islamonationalist combatants from the hard core of the insurgency, pushing jihadist Al-Qaeda supporters to the sidelines of Sunni society. 2.3 – persistent Opposition Those who challenge the validity of FM 3-24 or doubt that the “Petraeus Doctrine” in Iraq is indeed a success story are less visible than those who praise this population-centric approach. Opposition does exist, though, and criticism should be taken seriously. First of all, there are those for whom “winning hearts and minds” is inevitably linked to government misinformation, to a “dirty war”, and to the skirting of the values of democracy. This anti-military and pacifist criticism of the new COIN is expressed in a rather constructive manner by Sarah Sewall of the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy. In an address at Harvard University in which she commented on the publishing of the FM 3-24 by the University of Chicago Press in 2007, she shared her doubts: “Either the manual would be ignored by the American troops in the first place, or it would be used to hide deeds that are opposed to military honor and ethics”124. There are also conservatives who consider war to be a necessarily coercive activity. COIN can therefore constitute nothing but a diversion, an empty approach, or a “military malpractice”, as Edward N. Luttwak put it in February 2007 125. Luttwak, an American intellectual wellknown in the 1980s, believes that “brutality and terror can only be brought down by brutality and terror”. He doubts that Afghans and Iraqis, both of whom he views as “backward Muslims”, are ready for participatory democracy. He declares himself a supporter of the “hard way” 126. This type of conservative or neo-conservative opposition surfaced in particular while FM 3-24 was still being drafted, well before the Iraq troop surge. The last category of criticism also surfaced at the time that the troop surge was taking place and came from within the US military institution itself. For several years, Colonel gian p. gentile, Director of the History Department at the US Military Academy at West Point, has been positioning himself as the chief critic of COIN, which he contends to be nothing but a John A. Nagl: Learning to Eat Soup with a Knife – Counterinsurgency Lessons from Malaya and Vietnam, Praeger, reprinted in 2005. 124 Sarah Sewall has written a new introduction to the public version of the FM 3-24 titled A Radical Field Manual. 125 Edward N. Luttwak: Dead End: Counterinsurgency as a Military Malpractice, Harper’s Magazine, February 2007. 126 David Kilcullen has opposed these arguments on April 15 th, 2007, on the Small Wars Journal’s blog. 123 71 Part 3 – United States: once discredited, debated and redefined model, again prevailing vast myth-making operation 127. To him, the effectiveness of the “winning hearts and minds” concept has never been proven. He considers it instead to be a “strategy of tactics”. Gentile particularly challenges Nagl’s belief that a force must first “learn and adapt”, even before the fighting actually starts. He asserts than the Vietnam War was not lost because of the US military’s intrinsic inability to correct its tactics and its operations, but simply because it applied the wrong strategy, and because the Viet Cong, proved to be more determined than America. Gentile calls into question the myth that “winning hearts and minds” as a strategy represents a major break with the past’s classical way of waging wars. The proof he offers to support his point is a collection of recent historical studies that conclude that in the France’s Second Moroccan War, or “Rif War” in 1925, when Lyautey was in command 128, or during Britain’s Malayan Emergency 129, the population-centric approach had been a more gradual or peaceful approach, rather than a conventional coercive one. According to Gentile, counterinsurgency strategists, such as Templer in Malaya, Abrams in Vietnam or Petraeus in Iraq, had artificially declared the need for a break with the past and minimized the elements of continuity with their predecessors: Briggs, Westmoreland, and Casey respectively. In short, there is no such thing as a classical “bad war” or a counterinsurgency “good war”. He contends that counterinsurgency supporters (i.e. the “COIN lobby”) are creating a public narrative that is baseless and presents their recycled methods as innovative, thereby purposefully manipulating and misleading the public. According to Colonel Gentile, the US Army needs to return to its fundamentals. It must rid itself of the current myth about COIN that has reduced past counterinsurgency campaigns into an oversimplified either/or model representing complete success or total defeat. It must, of course, learn and adapt; but, first and foremost, it must be able to conduct combined arms combat 130. Gian P. Gentile: A Strategy of Tactics: Population-Centric COIN and the Army, 2007. Case critically studied by Douglas Porch, op. cit. 129 Precedent personally interpreted by Karl Hack. 130 Gian P. Gentile, op. cit. 127 128 72 Part 3 – United States: once discredited, debated and redefined model, again prevailing C hapter III – t he t ranSfer tO a fghanIStan Afghanistan is the next theater in which COIN was reformulated and implemented, even though the military intervention in Afghanistan had actually begun two years prior to the invasion of Iraq. It was not until 2005-2006 that the coalition stopped defining their action in Afghanistan a fight against terrorism and admitted that they were, in fact, facing an insurgency131. Typically, three intensity levels can be identified in a conflict: combat, battle, and campaign. The case studies of Helmand Province and Kapisa-Surobi earlier in this report showed that certain aspects of classical warfare have completely been turned upside down. In Afghanistan, the level of battle has all but disappeared: the insurgents simply avoid direct contact. The campaign level, in return, had never really been considered prior to the strategy shift initiated in 2009 by General Stanley McChrystal, from the Special Forces, commanding the multinational coalition in Afghanistan. In order to avoid mission failure, the NATO coalition completely revised its approach. Like in Iraq, the efforts were refocused on an increase in troop levels 132, and the reorientation clearly became “population-centric”. The new primacy of the “winning hearts and minds” principle over the “search and destroy” method, at least in the South of the country, was a direct consequence of this strategy shift. The insurgents continue to adapt, redeploy and merge with tribal populations whose dynamics the coalition still struggles to understand, despite all of the tools and methods they have developed to aid in reconstruction efforts or understand the social science aspects of the “human terrain”. The counterinsurgents are engaged in a multitude of simultaneous micro-combats, or small-scale military actions that are most often initiated by the rebels. These skirmishes bog down coalition soldiers in their attempts at cooperation and building trust with the people, adding to the psychological pressure on the population and contributing to the disorganization of operational efforts. In the US, it stokes the debate about the effectiveness of COIN strategy. 3.1 – the provincial reconstruction teams (prt) and the human terrain System (htS) The coalition supports the recovery of Afghanistan using its provincial Reconstruction Teams (pRT). The PRT are new features of the “winning hearts and minds” approach that can be traced back to the British Army 133. They were created rather hastily in late 2001 and early 2002 to overcome difficulties the coalition forces encountered during initial deployments. Starting in 2004, PRT fanned out all over the country, combining military operational capabilities with tangible and visible development efforts. Soon thereafter, this organizational structure that so typifies CIMIC philosophy was exported to Iraq. PRT can vary significantly in composition from region to region and depending on their contributor nations. Bertrand Valeyre, Alexandre Guérin, op. cit. By the summer 2010, the number of foreign soldiers (not including contractors) is supposed to be increased from some 130,000 to approximately 150,000, more than two thirds of whom will be Americans. 133 The idea seems to have been initiated by the British Major General Nicholas Patrick “Nick” Carter. Carter served in Bosnia (1998), and then in Kosovo (1999) where the Liaison and Observation Teams (LOT) and the Liaison and Monitoring Teams (LMT), both of which resemble PRTs, were fielded. 131 132 73 Part 3 – United States: once discredited, debated and redefined model, again prevailing ISAF has 26 PRT, 16 of which are under American command, including Civil Affairs officers and representatives of other agencies, such as the US State Department, Department of Justice, Department of Agriculture, and USAID. These have already implemented counterinsurgency in their own way. These added factors do not change the fact that the aim is still to “win over the population” while holding terrain as part of a “quadrillage” strategy 134. The PRT have much in common with the French Sections administratives spécialisées (SAS) system of the Algerian War half a century ago. In the North, the PRT are more deeply involved in the physical reconstruction efforts. In the South, they are more heavily exposed to Pashtun insurgent strikes, which limits the operating freedom of their CIMIC teams, which are forced to stay in their ultra-secure compounds that they seldom are able to leave. With respect to stabilization and reconstruction, the PRT can be proud of their positive results in the establishment and opening of schools and improving access to health care. Nevertheless, the increasing attacks by insurgents and general state of insecurity show that the PRT are not a magic bullet. They are led by nations that contribute to the coalition, often under very different mandates and frequently operating with different caveats 135. The provincial teams often suffer from a shocking lack of coordination. The PRT do not pass on the intelligence they may gather to ISAF, but to their respective countries who then decide whether to share all or a part of it. The US military has had Civil Affairs units 136 for a long time now, which are responsible for its CIMIC actions. These actions must not be confused with the human Terrain System (hTS), which first appeared in the Afghan Theater in 2006-2007. With a $130 million budget, the HTS was established in 2005 to be a “CORDS program for the 21st century” 137, in order to obtain ethnographical and cultural intelligence on the Afghan and Iraqi societies. The scientific counselor to the HTS is Montgomery McFate, an enthusiastic advocate of General Petraeus’s COIN. Since its debut, this program has been strongly supported by David Kilcullen, who qualifies it as “armed social work”. The Human Terrain Teams (HTT) are made up of five people: one leader and four additional specialists who typically have qualifications in foreign languages, geography, anthropology, or ethnography, and are embedded in the fighting units. These “academic embeds”, as they are called by the military, are supposed to transfer knowledge that can be helpful in fostering the understanding of the customs and habits of the local population. The Pentagon expects this to be beneficial with respect to “winning hearts and minds” through village protection, police recruitment, building trust among different tribes, the eradication of poverty and the improvement of local governance, etc. The experimental fielding of HTT in Afghanistan and the broader implementation of the HTS have triggered strong opposition in US led by the American Anthropological Association (AAA). Since 2007, the AAA has asserted that researchers are being exposed to danger by this Jean-Charles Jauffret: Afghanistan (2001-2010) – Chronique d’une Non-Victoire Annoncée, Autrement, 2010. Legal restrictions on certain activities issued by the force-contributing governments. 136 In 2007, one of these, operating within the Jalalabad PRT in Eastern Afghanistan, posted on the Internet a series of short news reports entitled Winning Hearts and Minds, the New Series. 137 Dr. Jacob Kipp, Lester Grau, Karl Prinslow, Captain Don Smith: The Human Terrain System: A CORDS for the 21st Century, The US Army Professional Writing Collection, Vol. 4, The Military Review, September/October 2006. 134 135 74 Part 3 – United States: once discredited, debated and redefined model, again prevailing kind of “anthropological mercenary service”, that it disapproves of. Two HTT scholars have indeed lost their lives: Michael V. Bhatia, killed at Khost in May 2008, and Paula Loyd, who was set on fire at Chel Ghazi on November 4 th, 2008, and passed away two months later. Citing ethical reasons, the AAA refuses that terrain research in social sciences be assimilated into acts of espionage and that the “academic embeds” become complicit in the “occupation of hearts and minds”138. Recruiting within the academic community for military assignments is a difficult task, and thus the military is forced to recruit mostly Ph.D. candidates. As of today, the overall results of HTT work remain to be seen. 3.2 – the McChrystal plan (a new Operational Culture) In summer 2009, General Stanley McChrystal, who at the time enjoyed a close professional relationship with General Petraeus, then US CENTCOM Commander, filed a situation report on Afghanistan that stressed that American forces and their NATO allies had not yet been able to implement their strategic principles “within the population”. To him, ISAF had been wrong to focus on “searching and destroy” operations against the Taliban rather than on “winning the hearts and minds” of the Afghan people. In August 2009, the general reiterated that: “The conflict will be won by persuading the people, not by destroying the enemy”. General McChrystal’s plan, submitted to Defense Secretary Robert Gates on August 30 th, 2009, identified the insurgency’s motives and suggested a set of measures designed to disrupt its activities. Most notable was the “troop surge” of 30,000 additional servicemembers authorized by President Obama, and a population-centric COIN strategy focused on isolating the insurgents from the Pashto population in the South and East of Afghanistan and on rebuilding the social fabric of communities down to the district level. This strategy also sought to fight corruption and graft at various levels of the administration, and to prevent intimidation and violence by the warlords who undermine the government in Kabul and destabilize certain areas, making them ideal for the Taliban to flourish. It reasserted the priority of better military and police training for the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF), to prepare them to assume greater operational responsibility in the field. Upon approval by coalition partners, this plan became the new official NATO strategy for Afghanistan. President Obama made the plan public at a speech given at the US Military Academy at West Point on December 1st, 2009. General McChrystal proposed the strategy shift as a “new operational culture”, and instituted the following changes at ISAF, intended to force it to: • Improve its understanding of Afghanistan and its people with the objective of being perceived as a welcome presence, rather than a force of occupation. To do this, McChrystal extended the length of servicemembers’ tours of duty in country, allowing troops more time to develop fruitful ties with the population and more time to develop respect for local customs and habits; 138 Dahr Jamail: Occupying Hearts and Minds, Truthout, May 1st, 2009. 75 Part 3 – United States: once discredited, debated and redefined model, again prevailing • Build interpersonal relationships in order to obtain reliable intelligence. To do this, he encouraged coalition members to spend more time outside their vehicles and to show more interest in both the needs and grievances of the people; • Spread a feeling of confidence by “projecting confidence” and spending more time “dismounted”, and not hiding inside the protection of an armored vehicle; • Decentralize the management of projects, a move designed to eliminate layers of bureaucracy and boost the spirit of initiative at the local level; • Reintegrate war veterans and offer reconciliation to all political figures, acting in the role of host nation enabler (ISAF should be in a position to provide employment, protection and resources to anybody who wants to rally); • Economically support the counterinsurgency, by financing local development projects, in particular “quick impact projects” that generate perceivable benefits in the short term. While reasserting the priority given to the fight against Al Qaeda, McChrystal emphasized the development of civil-military actions. The Pentagon employed all means available, either military (PSYOPS) or civil (civil engineering works, justice, the economy, or agricultural development), in liaison with the State Department and the other agencies (chiefly USAID) to increase the CIMIC impact. An “information strategy” was reviewed and adapted to win the “public relations war”. The two-fold objective was to minimize collateral damage during “kinetic” operations, while showcasing the positive impact of the coalition’s efforts in Afghanistan. 3.3 – the Ongoing Strategic debate in the united States President Barack Obama approved and endorsed the McChrystal Plan in December 2009. At the same time, other options and points of view were proposed and publicly discussed in Washington. US Vice President Joe Biden, along with Defense Department civil personnel considered that COIN strategy, though implemented with a certain degree of success in Iraq, was not easily adapted to Afghanistan. Implementing COIN required an increase in troop numbers and thus carried political cost that could not be reconciled with public opinion, which at the time was growing more and more hostile towards the military campaign in Afghanistan. One popular alternative strategy proposal, known as “CT plus”, refocused military effort directly on counterterrorism with the principal objective of countering Al Qaeda’s influence rather than the rebellion. Other projects were presented in reaction to the criticism that “CT Plus” triggered, especially in light of the risk of increased radicalization of the Afghan population as a result of the intensification of the conflict, most notably in the South. Also taken into account was the risk of provoking integration of home-grown Afghan terrorism with international terrorist networks. The first proposal, promoted by the Democratic Senator Carl Levin, the Chairman of the 76 Part 3 – United States: once discredited, debated and redefined model, again prevailing Senate Armed Forces Committee, focused on boosting training of the ANSF and thereby accelerating the process of “Afghanization” of the war effort. The second proposal came from COIN experts who, inspired by the theories of David kilcullen, proposed to combine all practices (COIN, CT Plus and Afghanization) within a restricted number of “strategic hamlets” without increasing troop numbers. This, they argued, would protect as many Afghans as possible from the Taliban’s influence and permit an optimization of the implementation of various development projects. After the 2009-2010 winter, the debate over COIN and its implementation changed focus to center around the “organizational culture” of the uS intelligence community. The Center for a New American Security (CNAS) 139 called attention to multiple intelligence needs of ISAF that were not being met. According to Major General Michael T. Flynn, General McChrystal’s Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence (CJ2), the decision-makers in Washington and at NATO did not possess the necessary information to define or put into place their political-military strategy properly. The objectives of the intelligence agencies were still far too focused on the insurgent groups themselves and not sufficiently focused on the people. He claimed that US intelligence agencies had an unclear vision of the political, economical, and cultural environment and therefore lacked the “situational awareness” required to operate. Diplomats attached to PRT, he claimed, also had insufficient training and preparation for the Afghan theater. Major General Flynn thus called for: • Local assessments to promote better understanding of the reality on the ground in the different provinces and districts; • Building information networks with a “bottom-up approach”; • Understanding the local mechanisms of power, without trying to make them fit into any particular ethnographical model; • Tearing down the barriers between military intelligence and open-source intelligence, which can be collected by the population, NGOs, civil authorities, or UN agencies. The “rationalization” of intelligence collection promoted by Major General Flynn was a means of compensating for the glaring lack of assets in the field. It was also a means to exert pressure on the government in Kabul to force it improve its own efficiency and transparency in governance. From a civilian point of view, Major General Flynn’s suggestions also bolstered the “winning hearts and minds” concept, but forced the question: are we aiming to “militarize anthropology” 140 or to “civilize military action” 141? Think tank to which David Kilcullen, who promoted the enclaves theory as an alternative to COIN, contributes. Characterization by David Kilcullen. 141 Characterization by Secretary Robert Gates. 139 140 77 Part 3 – United States: once discredited, debated and redefined model, again prevailing Conclusion of part 3: US opinion remains clearly in favor of avoiding the repetition of the errors committed during the Vietnam War and the trauma and stigmatization that the nation endured as a result. The lessons learned from Vietnam, however, have various interpretations. Pacifists, who are by nature opposed to all military interventions, have concluded that there is no pertinence whatsoever to the “hearts and minds” concept. During the 1990s, they were joined in opposition to “hearts and minds”, quite ironically, by conservative militarists who support a hard line against terrorism. The “military-industrial lobby” seemed to have convinced both the general public and decision makers in Washington that the possibility of a “clean war” exists (as in Iraq in 1991) and allowed the “zero casualty myth” to perpetuate. Over the past decade, this modern myth began to fade away. The “new operational culture” praised and promoted by the “COIN lobby” provided it with the opportunity to revive and to reinvigorate the “population-centric” approach, using elements from the social sciences. 78 PART 4 A CHALLENGE FOR THE COALITION IN AFGHANISTAN In theory, NATO’s new strategy adopts a comprehensive approach that systematically coordinates all security, economic development, political governance and diplomacy issues. It attempts to control the use of force to prevent as many civilian casualties as possible. It focuses on the struggle against Al Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan and on ‘Afghanization,’ the transfer of responsibilities to the Afghan government. In practice, winning the trust, confidence and respect of the population is far from having been achieved. The inertia of the host nation’s social and political structures, the lingering doubts about the legitimacy of the current international commitment, and above all, the decreasing support of world public opinion are a reminder remind that the approach is difficult to implement, remains uncertain and can be reversed by the enemy at any time. 79 Part 4 – A challenge for the coalition in Afghanistan C hapter I – t he I nertIa faCtOr : S OCIal and p OlItICal a SpeCtS that M aKe f OreIgn I nterventIOn d IffICult NATO has lost hope of winning the campaign in Afghanistan by purely military means, though it still holds out hope that winning the trust and confidence of the population is achievable. As with any COIN strategy, the aim is to first gain understanding, then win over the passive or neutral inhabitants by proving that the host government is capable of meeting their needs and improving their living conditions, and then to set up networks of human intelligence sources in order to identify and destroy any residual insurgent elements. Having initiated the “Clear, Hold, Build” sequence in the Helmand Province, and preparing to launch an offensive in Kandahar province (operation Omid, or hope) General Stanley McChrystal hoped to have broken the dynamic up to then favorable to the insurgents and changed the expectations of the civilian population. The NATO command was convinced that the Taliban were gradually losing their grip on the population. General McChrystal was not yet talking about a return to confidence, but he had detected “a new hope mixed with anxiety”142 among Pashtuns in the South. Most Afghanistan specialists consider that this observation made by the ISAF Commander was mere wishful thinking. The Afghan people are not just a population in the generic sense used in COIN terminology, but a people with numerous languages and ethnic groups, a history, a rich culture, a soul, and roots in a certain territory. This people, exhausted by 30 years of war, is frustrated in its expectations. After 30 years of intervention, it has many reservations regarding foreigners, and its confidence in its government has yet to be restored. 1.1 – the Mentality and expectations of the afghan people Afghanistan is home to a society pregnant with conflict. National unity is weakened by the widespread belief that the country is, historically, the creation of the Pashtuns for the Pashtuns 143. Afghan President Hamid Karzai has repeatedly asserted since 2002 that Afghanistan should be the country of all Afghans, without any distinction between ethnic groups, languages or religions, but this has yet to take root. Pashtuns, being too numerous for the country’s scarce natural resources to provide for, resort to corruption just to scrape by 144. The Afghans are undeniably nationalistic and suffer from a complex of “majority inferiority” vis-à-vis other ethnic groups like the Persian – or Turkic – speaking minorities. To make matters worse, traditional Pashtun tribal structures have been collapsing for three decades in the South of the country. An expression he used during his stay in Paris from April 14 th to 16 th, 2010. Historically speaking, “Afghan” and “Pashto” are synonyms. 144 Message conveyed by French Ambassador Pierre Lafrance at a study group on Crises in Afghanistan Since the 19 th Century that took place at France’s Ecole militaire on April 29 th, 2009. 142 143 81 Part 4 – A challenge for the coalition in Afghanistan Pashtuns identify themselves according to an ancestral lineage, a common language called “Pashto” and also their adherence to a system of values known as pashtunwali. These values, such as hospitality, vengeance, discretion, magnanimity, modesty, courage and bravery, originate from Islam as well as traditions and customs (“riwaj”). Anthropological studies concerning Pashtuns on both sides of the Afghan-Pakistani border, known as the “Durand Line”, assist in better understanding this ethnic group by taking several different approaches. Particular attention was focused on the Pakistani Swat valley in the 1970s. Fredrik Barth took a classical approach based on the relationships between the dominating class or “mashar” and the dominated class or “kashar”. Charles Lindholm focused on the friction between generosity and jealousy. Akbar Ahmed focuses on the divide he identified in 1976 between the honor-driven or “nang” Pashtuns who live communally in the mountains and the more settled urban Pashtuns or “qalang”. It is a shame that David kilcullen, in a chapter dedicated to Pashtun ethos in his 2009 book The Accidental Guerrilla, refers only to the “nang” versus “qalang” divide, which might very well be the least pertinent of the three approaches and which is the most questionable of the three approaches. Pashtuns, reinforced by co-religionists educated in Pakistani madrassas, make up the majority of the insurgent fighting units in Afghanistan’s South and Southeast. The “outcasts”, or “majbur” 145 and the “outsiders”, or “naraz” 146 Pashtun communities have largely been neglected by the government in Kabul. Being pushed aside not only stoked religious fervor among them, but forced them seek other ways to gain prestige. Both factors drive them to towards the Taliban. In order to communicate to the population the nature of their priorities in governance, the Taliban has thus far chosen to no longer deploy religious police to meddle in the Pashtuns’ private lives, but rather to focus on sponsoring development projects in the areas that are under government control in the South. At the same time, in order to reinforce at national level their moral authority, the Taleban published a “behavioral code”, or “layeha”, a summary of which can be found in Annex 3. At least in the short term, the preferred solution in this development-oriented approach lies in charting an achievable path for economic development that would improve living standards and in turn, drive down predation and aggression. An emergency economy could be implemented in conjunction with CIMIC actions – albeit to the chagrin of most French NGOs – aimed at preventing the poorest segment of the population from turning towards the insurgency. However, there is a lack of consensus around what the basic needs of the Afghan people are. 145 146 This word characterizes the “constrained” Pashtuns who were expelled from the living areas after 2001. This word characterizes the “unsatisfied” Pashtuns who are deprived from a job and social status. 82 Part 4 – A challenge for the coalition in Afghanistan quantitative data about the Afghan people’s expectations of their government are quite lacking and interpretation of surveys conducted in Afghanistan is difficult. Opinion polls 147 generally agree that security and justice are the population’s greatest concerns, followed by education and access to water and electricity. Afghans have suffered under the rule of both warlords and corrupt officials after the victory of the mujahidin over the communists (from 1992 to 1996). They remain outraged by the massive corruption pervading every level of government. The state’s judicial system, widely corrupt and considered ineffective, has not proved capable of settling the numerous disputes that have arisen between clans and tribes since the beginning of the civil war. Given these circumstances, development remains dependent on access to water and electricity. Population-centric COIN is hence oriented towards meeting the two fundamental needs of security/justice and water/electricity in order to “win hearts and minds”. Delays in the provision of these services deprive the counterinsurgency of one of its main means of intervention and as a result costs it legitimacy in propping up the Afghan central government in fighting corruption and enforcing the rule of law. The result is often a recourse to the traditional dispute settlement method, via tribal assemblies known as “jirga”. 1.2 – the Mutual Misunderstandings When Afghanistan began to open its borders to merchants, archaeologists and foreign agents in the second half of the 19 th century and again in the 20 th century during cooperation with the West, competing with soon-to-be-Soviet Russia, its inhabitants felt, often rightly, that the presence of foreigners marked the start of an imperialist enterprise, whether it regarded territorial occupation, appropriation of natural resources or the imposition of an imported ideology. Although peacefully represented over the years in the person of the German advisor, the American engineer or the French doctor, foreigners were mostly perceived in the second half of the second half of the 20 th century as enemies, or “doshman”, and infidels, or “kafir”, who must be pushed back in the name of the defense of the homeland, or “watan” and religion, “din” 148. At the present, the “international community” usually refers to the West and “the West” often refers to the united States. In Afghanistan, the US is systematically accused of disrupting the world’s progress as a whole 149. There is a strong anti-American and anti-Western sentiment in Afghanistan and Pakistan, where Osama Bin Laden’s slogans against the Jews and the “crusaders” have found a receptive audience among radicalized youth. Anti-Americanism remains one of the key driving forces of the Afghan insurgency. While the Taliban is not supported by all ethnic groups, the vast majority of the population remains hostile to NATO forces. It is impossible to extrapolate precise indications on population perceptions from most of these surveys. Scant data and security problems make conducting opinion surveys a dangerous enterprise. The individuals surveyed are reticent about expressing their opinions. It is sometimes necessary to provide a financial incentive. The methodology is therefore often questionable. 148 Interview by the author of Swiss ethnologists Pierre Centlivres and Micheline Centlivres-Demont. For a long time, the only non-Muslim foreigners in Afghanistan were mainly British. Other foreigners have often been defined in comparison to them, whether positively or negatively. 149 French Ambassador Pierre Lafrance, op. cit. 147 83 Part 4 – A challenge for the coalition in Afghanistan Among the most hostile of Afghans, the coalition is perceived as an occupying force no different from the Soviets. Hence, even those who dread the return of the Taliban are not necessarily enthusiastic about the presence of the ISAF. The collateral damage caused by NATO strikes has further polarized perceptions 150. As in Iraq, the use of disproportionate force that causes large scale damage, often among the civil population, proves to be counterproductive, and does not support the aim of separating the guerrilla from the population 151. Finally, the other problem is of a cultural nature, since the NATO troops have disrupted both local customs and local economies152. Afghans maintain an ambivalent attitude to international aid: they want it to be immediately visible and to change their daily life. In Afghanistan, nothing can cause more damage to “hearts and minds” than a promise not kept. Over the years, Afghans have developed their own interpretations about the underlying intent of aid. Even the construction of a clinic or a school can arouse suspicions. Afghans frequently fantasize that any given NGO is in fact a front for America’s Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) for subversive strategic or religious motives. At the same time, in areas where the insurgency holds sway, expectations are high among projects focused on the range of issues from justice to education and from health to access to water, all of which require long-term investment in human resources. Development projects, as well as “cash for work” and “cash for food” programs, are usually appreciated for the windfall effect they bring along by boosting the local economy 153. This does not compensate, however, for the population’s perception of the coalition as an occupying force, and one that inflicts casualties and creates insecurity at that. Westerners in Afghanistan are not always aware of the lack of understanding and the rejection sometimes caused by their actions and their attitudes. Entering an Afghan home by force is always seen as a slight to the head of the household, all the more so if the area given over to women is disturbed. An Afghan woman is perceived to have had her decency assaulted, a crime known as “namous” when she is simply approached or looked at. A man’s decency is perceived to be challenged when he is confronted with another man’s nudity or compelled to be stripped of his clothes. Hence Afghan males’ reluctance to take their clothes off for body searches or be seen bare-chested while laboring outside, for example. Westerners The insurgents’ propaganda was reinforced by the indiscriminate bombings and alleged profanations of the Koran in order to harm the West’s reputation in Afghanistan. 151 Conversely, in Kapisa-Surobi, the population knows and appreciates that the French try to avoid collateral damage in the course of their military actions. They observe that the damage caused by the forces is reported by the military police and sometimes the financial compensation is higher than the actual value. 152 Barthélémy Courmont, Darko Ribnikar, op. cit. 153 Pierre Centlivres and Micheline Centlivres-Demont, op. cit. 150 84 Part 4 – A challenge for the coalition in Afghanistan perceive humanitarian assistance differently from Afghans. In some instances, Afghans have burned clothes and blankets they had been given in the course of CIMIC actions because they believe them to represent a form of humiliation. ISAF commanders remind troops regularly of the strict standards of behavior necessary, but progress still needs to be made. For example, ISAF units need to be seen obeying local traffic rules, instead of driving around traffic in oncoming lanes as is quite common. They need to take the time to stop, dismount from their armored vehicles, take off their sunglasses and combat gloves and go to the bazaar and engage in a friendly conversation with Afghans. These clearly defined principles are listed in General McChrystal’s “COIN guidance” published on August 26 th, 2009: • We must stop intimidating the population in situations where we think that we are deterring the insurgents from attacking us. This defensive and mainly provocative attitude might seem reassuring, but it has no impact on the insurgency and is counterproductive from the population’s point of view; • New attitudes towards the population must be developed: they need to be sensitive without showing affection or too much compassion. This is simply about showing respecting for each other in order to better understand the human environment while remaining ready to use force as needed; • We should not hesitate to express our true perceptions of the overall situation, without applying our own Western criteria. Dialogue based on these principles prevents two major mistakes: lack of appreciation of the Afghan people in the eyes of the coalition and the inhabitants’ disdain of the naïve and idealistic Westerners 154. 1.3 – the failing go-betweens Westerners lack local go-betweens in conducting COIN, which imposes an enormous handicap in the “Hold” and “Build” phases and postpones “Afghanization”. According to American officials, Hamid Karzai is quite reluctant to take charge of a COIN operation, the Kabul government’s political will and involvement are however necessary to “win hearts and minds”. The Afghan people will only permanently break away from the insurgents if they believe that the Karzai administration will be the eventual winner. Unfortunately, the poor performance of the regime in the fields of good governance and curbing corruption is unlikely to convince the population of that anytime soon. In the Marja district of Helmand, where the Americans launched an initiative to expel the Taliban 155, the inhabitants insisted on not having the corrupt Items of the ISAF Commander’s Counterinsurgency Guidance recalled by an officer known as “GROTIUS” in: Gagner les Cœurs et les Esprits de la Population en Afghanistan... Quelles Actions Civilo-militaires?, Grotius.fr, 2009. 155 The sweep of this district is still ongoing. The Taliban is still planting IEDs and killing those who collaborate with the Americans. 154 85 Part 4 – A challenge for the coalition in Afghanistan policemen return to their posts 156. For the previous eight years, the insurgency had been fueled by a feeling of abandonment by the Kabul regime. Pashtuns widely believe that the central government is biased towards the former fighters of the Northern Alliance (Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras). Numerous ancestral conflicts and disputes, known as “doshmani”, are pitting communities against one other. This fragmentation of Afghan society considerably hampers the implementation of the “oil spot” principle. The counterinsurgency has been looking for regional power brokers and alternative sources of influence as pillars of its strategy to regain the support of the population, even if this might bypass the kabul government. In October 2001, the Americans had already been relying on the warlords of both northern and southern Afghanistan as agents to expel the Taliban from Kabul and Kandahar, without having to engage their own troops on the ground. The fall of the Islamic Emirate’s government further favored the warlords. The central government could not successfully fill the political gap in all the provinces and had to secure pacts with each warlord in order to preserve a veneer of order and stability. The warlords were thus “appointed” by the coalition and like private contractors, play a highly ambiguous role in COIN. They can be considered effective partners in the fight against insurgents, but their own violence and corruption increase the country’s suffering. The Americans are often inclined to replicate the traditional “divide and rule” method that was practiced by the British at the Indian border, co-opting Pashtun elders, notables known as “khan” or “malek” who wield strong influence within their own communities. In the greater South, the elders have been replaced over the past two decades by a new generation of players. The Taliban, both “apprentice mullahs” and “religious businessmen” 157, have replaced those who disappeared during the war, fled to Pakistan or lost credibility in the eyes of the population. The elders have been replaced in such functions as the representation of Pashtun interests in Kabul, regulation and the administration of justice and redistribution of funding from the central government. This situation is unfavorable to the indirect strategy of COIN, which aims at setting up local social networks based on these warlords and elders. The coalition is thus forced to look elsewhere to find influential power brokers to deal with 158. According to a survey carried out by the International Security Council on Security and Development (ICOS), a human rights NGO working in Helmand, 61% of Afghans interviewed in Marja have developed a “more negative” opinion of the NATO forces since this offensive began. 157 The Taliban have hoarded “social capital” and rebuilt the Pashtun identity in their own way. The reference to honor “nang” is still used, but it has become more religious: what is considered as honorable is now more and more what is assessed as pure “halal” in the eyes of the sharia. Afghan public opinion is very much divided, but its main criterion is purity; the Taliban thus enjoy great moral superiority. To them, the human being is not corrupted, but times are, and therefore the context is impure. 158 The projects carried out by targeted CIMIC actions provide many opportunities that can be easily used to establish contacts with certain individuals in a village, a district or a province. 156 86 Part 4 – A challenge for the coalition in Afghanistan C hapter II – t he u nderlyIng S taKe : the l egItIMIzatIOn Of f OrCe The “pacification” or “imperial policing” campaigns of the colonial era had one clear objective: to preserve mainland control over colonized peoples. This subjugation is both legally and practically unthinkable in the current Afghan case. The tenants of conventional COIN are, however, questionable in the post-colonial international order. So, what is the actual aim of COIN strategy in the 21st century? Experts review the data and ask themselves questions regarding needs to be met in order to “win hearts” and the effectiveness of the information and counter-propaganda actions required to “win minds”. What if the underlying stake of the war in Afghanistan were actually the legitimacy of the force’s presence itself? Too many political objectives blurred the original message post-September 11th. The need to cope with the security threat posed by an Afghan insurgency influenced by jihadist salafism has since been counterbalanced by the effort to put Afghanistan on the path towards democratic government. Both the existence of the threat and the mission to install democracy in Afghanistan are called into question more and more frequently. Does either truly require military intervention? The reorientation endorsed in December 2009 by President Obama 159 called for a rephrasing of the wording of the commitment. The juxtaposition of two arguments. The contradiction between the struggle against Al Qaeda being harbored in Afghanistan on the one hand and struggle against the Taliban’s barbarity and oppression on the other has become more and more problematic, as the prospect of national reconciliation, including insurgency leaders, is being envisaged. 2.1 – the definition of the desired end State In the wake of September 11th, the Americans and their allies sought to capture Al Qaeda’s leadership and dismantle the Taliban’s Islamic Emirate in order to punish them for their assistance to international terrorists. In Afghanistan, the West believed it was carrying out the first international policing operation of the 21st century. Four years later, they found themselves stuck in a military stalemate 160 and facing an insurgency conflict that appeared to be straight out of the 19th century, albeit with the added complications that globalization added to the situation. In the meantime, the security objective of destroying Al Qaeda’s safe havens, which extended into neighboring Pakistan, had been overshadowed by the mission of nation building and promotion of democratic institutions in Afghanistan. This piling up of objectives or “mission creep” further complicated the strategy and impeded communication. It exposed differences of opinion between Americans, focused more on security, Benoist Bihan: L’Axe du Moindre Mal – Le plan Obama-McChrystal pour l’Afghanistan, Institut de Recherche Stratégique de l’Ecole Militaire (IRSEM), Cahier #2, March, 2010. 160 Gilles Dorronsoro: Afghanistan – En Quête d’un Accord Politique, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2010 159 87 Part 4 – A challenge for the coalition in Afghanistan and Europeans, who insisted more on values. This division was particularly salient when questions arose about whether Afghanistan’s democratization meant rejecting Islamist fundamentalism and jihadism, or whether the counterinsurgency and counterterrorist struggle should have priority over the struggle against narcotics and corruption. This dilemma is clearly mirrored in the role given to Afghan police forces. If the aim is to consolidate democracy, the coalition trains police in maintaining law and order and conducting criminal investigations. If the aim is to fight against insurgents and terrorists, then police are militarized to take part in “search and sweep” operations alongside ANA soldiers. As long as this debate continued, the conquest of “hearts and minds” could go in either of two directions: ensuring the population’s security from terrorists and aiding an at-risk population to usher in a democratic form of government. In the strategic reorientation of December 1st, 2009, the Americans reconcentrated their efforts on the security requirement and set aside the promotion of human and women’s rights 161. Within the context of global security, Obama’s decision to focus mainly on security was not incompatible with the notion of “just war” (in the hope of building a safer world). 2.2 – the problem of the law and proportionate use of force in the Current environment The problem of legitimization and proportionality of the use of force can be viewed in different ways: “Are we in an environment where we want to restore a universal right for security and foster development, or are we in a context where we want to impose the Western order, based on our values we believe to be universal” 162? According to Yves Cadiou 163, “talking about war within populations raises nowadays a fundamental question: under what law”? Citing the uN resolution that gave NATO the mandate to intervene in Afghanistan does not hold much sway in the minds of critics and analysts. Barack Obama: “As President, I refuse to set goals that go beyond our responsibility, our means, and our interests […] our troop commitment in Afghanistan cannot be open-ended, because the nation that I’m most interested in building is our own”. December 1st, 2009. 162 Stéphane Taillat: Un Peu d’Histoire, la Contre-insurrection Française, En Vérité, March 23 rd, 2009. 163 According to Yves Cadiou, who publishes analyses on the site Théâtre des opérations, launching a counterinsurgency campaign means having the population at one’s disposal and therefore denies them the right to selfdetermination. 161 88 Part 4 – A challenge for the coalition in Afghanistan According to Christian Olsson 164, stabilization and counterinsurgency operations cannot be presented as a question of home security missions, as was the case in the colonial context. Both ideas remain anti-liberal in his view. The doctrinal traditions referred to in Afghanistan prescribe a combination of control, “quadrillage”, coercion, protection, enticement, deterrence and charm offensives as psychological and civic actions used as remedies to political violence. This describes a situation of “total war”. The catchphrase of “winning hearts and minds” becomes a façade for a comprehensive total war strategy (including non-compliance with standards). Analyzing the current situation in Afghanistan and the present strategy instituted by McChrystal’s Plan in 2009 tends to contradict this somewhat paradoxical assessment. In Galula’s time, the desired end state of COIN was the military defeat of the insurgency, the destruction of their political organization and a sustained marginalization of the insurgency within the population. At the strategic level, the aim was to defeat a rebel enemy without using excessive force, to consolidate a government and, above all, to impose order. In Afghanistan, where NATO does not intend to stay forever, the aim is rather to restore order in an instable and chaotic environment. According to David Kilcullen, insurgency is an ecosystem where numerous entities endeavor to increase their capability to survive in an attempt to gather support and get votes. At the operational level, counterinsurgents must reduce the transformational extent of the “winning hearts and minds” concept. French-speaking military forces on the ground believe that the phrase is outdated and they suggest redefining it. The military does not want to impose a model that suggests external domination. They do not demand to be “liked” either, which is a blurry concept that hardly corresponds to the rigor of stabilization operations. They only ask for the respect and trust that go along with such operations 165. To Brigadier General JeanMichel Destribats, instead of “winning hearts and minds”, it would be better to have populations subscribe to a political objective that is set for them. To achieve such an objective, the force would need to have reliable intelligence and access to a credible local elite 166. The previous chapter demonstrated how much this elite is presently lacking in Afghanistan. Christian Olsson: Guerre Totale et/ou Force Minimale? Histoire et Paradoxes des Cœurs et des Esprits, Cultures & Conflits, #67, fall 2007. The author refers to Michel Foucauld’s theories on social control. As any strategy aiming at eliminating war makers to eliminate war itself, a counterinsurgency strategy bears in itself a logic of escalation to the extremes, which aims to put an end to the insurgency by eliminating the insurgents and their motivations, by recommending action in the whole social domain, by attempting to control each individual, which is a breach of the phrase “winning hearts and minds”. Olsson is a professor at Lille II University. He gave lectures on this subject at IEP Sciences Po, Paris, King’s College London and the French Military Academy at Saint-Cyr. 165 FD: op.cit. 166 Jean-Michel Destribats: “Ratber than focusing on hearts and minds, I believe it is important to win confidence, to get across the the positive character of the Force’s action which will only be viewed favorably if it brings individual and collective benefits which are quick and indisputable. Only this confidence, founded on deep respect, will allow us to conduct our mission with the necessary freedom of action and to be successful in the long term. 164 89 Part 4 – A challenge for the coalition in Afghanistan 2.3 – the Question of long term Commitment The factor of time plays a different role for the insurgents than it does for the counterinsurgents. The passage of time consolidates the insurgents’ existence and devalues the counterinsurgent action or inaction. An insurgency, fluid, mobile and elusive, is judged by its promises167, while counterinsurgents, who often work from within a rigidly bureaucratic apparatus, are judged on their actual deeds. According to Gérard Chaliand, it is now too late to “win the hearts and minds”; it would have been better to “feed stomachs,” that is to say to support the Karzai administration in quickly meeting the Afghan people’s basic needs with respect to the improvement of living conditions 168. At the present moment, the best end state to be hoped for is a decent “non-victory”. It is quite tempting for the Force to try to tackle security challenges prior to dealing with the development issues. However, due to the persistently high threat level, if this rule is applied then development works will never start. Experience indeed shows that some development projects yield positive effects on security, such as road construction, (often highlighted by Kilcullen in Kounar province) or the implementation of agricultural policies to promote substitutes for poppy cultivation. A minimum level of security must be ensured, however, in order for most work to start. For Christian Olsson 169, the continuation of the military presence in Afghanistan and Iraq, often encompassed by the term “long wars” in American strategic discourse, raises many dilemmas. The most obvious is that Western presence can be one of the causes of the intensification of the conflict 170. The Force tries to compensate for the lack of legitimity in doing so, takes the place of that very legitimity. In this context, “winning hearts and minds” comes across as a correction mechanism for the negative effects of an extended presence, but it nevertheless constitutes one of many root causes of the problem itself. While the objective is the legitimization of the use of force, these measures can, at worst, account for the perception of the coalition as an occupying force. In practice, many of the multinational armed forces in Afghanistan only have a capacity for temporary or partial presence. They should therefore abandon the idea of controlling the whole country by military means. In fact, the mandate of the ISAF only permits the coalition to provide support and assistance to the ANSF. In Afghanistan, being a “mujahid”, or a jihad fighter, is such a just cause. Interview with the author. 169 Christian Olsson: op. cit. 170 This argument is shared by Gilles Dorronsoro. 167 168 90 Part 4 – A challenge for the coalition in Afghanistan When President Obama announced on December 1st, 2009, that a COIN reassessment was to be conducted in July 2011, in order to establish a timeline for the gradual withdrawal of troops, he ordered ISAF and the Afghan government to produce results within a very short time span. The success indicators of population-centric COIN, such as demonstrably winning over the opponent, the handover to the ANSF, taking effective control of each district, and overall confidence levels, are not expected to show significant results before the 2011 deadline. Christian Olsson’s 2007 reflection that “COIN strategy appears as a substitute for a strategy of political withdrawal from the conflict” is no longer completely accurate. Both processes mentioned have since been initiated, and they are effectively competing against each other. All players have accepted that military victory is impractical and that a political solution has become a necessity. The London Conference of January 28 th, 2010, determined the twofold need for reintegration and national reconciliation 171. The 2011 deadline, together with the reinitiation of inter-Afghan dialogue, has compelled the parties involved ins the conflict to define their positions. The Pakistani government, for example, cannot imagine being left out of a settlement involving Afghan Hezbi and the Taliban. A new debate has started between the civil and military authorities within NATO countries: should the inter-Afghan dialogue process wait for the COIN to achieve tactical results, in order to bring the Kabul regime in a reinforced position to the negotiation table, or should it immediately start negotiating with “reconcilable” insurgents 172 ? “Reintegration” consists of disarming and reinserting the insurgency’s foot-soldiers into society. “National reconciliation” entails finding a political agreement with the insurgents’ chain of command. 172 To Lyautey, “any political action must involve finding out and taking advantage of the local elements that can be used, and neutralizing and destroying those who cannot”, from Rôle Colonial de l’Armée, Armand Colin, 1900. 171 91 Part 4 – A challenge for the coalition in Afghanistan C hapter III – t he l aCKIng p rInCIple Of a CtIOn : W InnIng the h eartS and M IndS Of O ne ’ S O Wn p OpulatIOn ? In Afghanistan, COIN supporters want a repeat of the successful precedent of the Malayan Emergency fifty years ago. American leaders want to avoid another “Vietnam”. As with any war, the COIN war in Afghanistan has not only a human cost, but a political and economic cost as well. European public opinion has more and more trouble accepting casualties, and to many of them “winning hearts and minds” is an empty catchphrase. Sensibilities and security perceptions have changed since the two world wars and the wars of decolonization. On August 18th, 2008, the French armed forces lost 10 men in an ambush in the Uzbin valley, and this was enough to remind France of the reality of war and cause an uproar in public opinion 173. Since summer 2009, NATO has lost an average of between one and two soldiers per day in Afghanistan. In the West, the justification of the war is losing ground. “Is ‘winning the hearts and minds of our own populations’ not the missing principle of action of this campaign” 174? Without the resolute support and resilience of public opinion, how much is the will displayed by civil and military leaders worth? On their side, the Taliban insurgents and their Al Qaeda allies have shown that they understand how to take advantage of the resources offered by globalization, in particular new communication and information technologies, in order to mobilize the “hearts and minds” of their co-religionists and supporters and attack from the rear of the psychological battlefield. 3.1 – the Influence of the COIn lobby Andrew krepinevich’s thesis, The Army and Vietnam, published in 1986, suggests that COIN campaigns that focus on winning hearts and minds can and will be successful if the “rear front” of political decision makers and public opinion can display enough will, patience and confidence in the success of military experts and generals and provided that they receive the extra resources they always seem to need 175. As leader of the coalition, US President and recent Nobel Peace Prize winner Barack Obama has no doubt about the utility of the force on the ground. He is convinced that the true fight against Al qaeda is taking place in the Afghanistan-pakistan region, not in Iraq. 10 French KIAs is comparable to the daily number of losses during the Algerian War. This expression is borrowed from Olivier Hubac and Matthieu Anquez: op. cit. 175 For a critical reading of Krepinevich, read Gian P. Gentile: op. cit. 173 174 92 Part 4 – A challenge for the coalition in Afghanistan COIN supporters are a highly networked and influential international group. They have established close ties in some sectors of the American press and use them in order to disseminate their theories and influence the decision-making process of the civil and military authorities 176. They merely put into practice what Frank kitson used to recommend: a policy of influence. On June 23 rd, 2010, General McChrystal was removed from his command for his disparaging words against the Executive in Washington, though the population-centric COIN strategy was never called into question. In fact, President Obama immediately appointed General Petraeus, the father of the doctrine as we know it today, as his successor. General McChrystal’s highly publicized indiscreet commentary about the Executive in Washington undermined the principle of civil control of the armed forces (in compliance with the doctrine of Galula). He was, however, reminded of his obligations, the Constitution giving preeminence to the civilian authorities. 3.2 – the resilience of public Opinion (the War of relevance and Media amplification) While the principal center of gravity of the war is the Afghan population, the second center is undoubtedly public opinion among the populations of ISAF contributor countries 177. The support of European public opinion towards the war in Afghanistan is clearly shrinking. Americans, still deeply affected by September 11th, remain in favor of military and civil intervention in the country. Public sentiment is changing, however, and some observers suggest that American public opinion is only three years behind the Europeans. Starting in 2004 in Afghanistan, the Taliban has been specifically targeting the contingents from nations such as Canada, the Netherlands and Italy, where public opinion has been most likely to turn against the war. The insurgents exert psychological pressure on Western (mainly European) nations by taking their citizens hostage and targeting them in attacks against NATO convoys. The Taliban’s determination to continue to attack forces which possess obvious technological superiority, but whose will can be worn away with the passage of time, is typical of asymmetric conflicts 179. This became obvious after 2006 when David Petraeus, “the last-chance general in Iraq”, became the object of much praise. See the comments on this subject by Stéphane Taillat, Christian Olsson et Gian P. Gentile: op. cit. 177 Olivier Hubac, Matthieu Anquez: L’Enjeu Afghan – La Défaite Interdite, André Versaille éditeur, 2009. 178 Olivier Roy, in an interview with the author in 2009, expressed that American public opinion, the patriotic feelings of which rose after September 11th, 2001, is still ready to accept losses. What they do not accept is the lack of displayed policy and consideration for the wounded and veterans back from overseas theaters of operations. 179 “The military asymmetry used by our opponents, which consists in bypassing our power, is also a political asymmetry that derides our wonderful values in order for the population to feel disgusted by them”, says FD: op. cit. 176 93 Part 4 – A challenge for the coalition in Afghanistan The lack of a will to make sacrifices in “Old Europe” 180 adds up to a lack of resilience in public opinion. In France, this level of resilience is generally reserved for reaction to terrorist attacks on French soil 181. It is neither the result of a comprehensive defense policy, nor of commitments overseas and their accompanying risks 182. To tolerate the risk of violence, public opinion would have to agree with the purpose of the war being waged in Afghanistan. In reality, the exact goals of the war remain unclear to many, causing public opinion, as expressed via the media, to find the war somewhat irrelevant 183. Everybody agrees that the media plays an amplifying role. As Christian Olsson184 writes in the special edition of the journal Cultures et Conflits dedicated to the conquest of “hearts and minds” in overseas commitments: “The opposing guerrilla fighter moves and fights within the population, while, thanks to the media, the audience of these conflicts has become the world population. This world audience has come to influence the decisions made by its political leaders who send more troops than are sometimes needed on the ground. Those who wage war within the population have also come to use the media in order to weigh on decisions and above all on the wishes of the population they try to lead or co-opt. We are not talking about the world village anymore but rather of the world theater of operations with the participation of the public”. According to Gérard Chaliand, the success of the Al Qaeda terrorist movement in the media domain largely exceeds the results that they have actually achieved on the ground, in terms of human targets or destroyed infrastructure, since the spectacular bombings in New York and Washington (2001), Madrid (2004) or London (2005). The jihadists took advantage of the poor reputations of the national, generally state-controlled TV channels in the Arab and Muslim world and also of independent satellite networks such as Al Jazeera and other global media outlets. This gave them access to a global audience, and took away the necessity to indoctrinate and recruit the masses village by village, as guerrilla fighters and insurgents of past decades had to do. Information about the global jihad is hence broadcast far and wide to the “hearts and minds” of friend and foe alike (the specific role of the Internet is laid out in section 3.3 of this chapter). The death of professional soldiers in Afghanistan is a scandal in the public’s mind, not so much because they lost their lives in the course of a mission conducted on behalf of the nation, but because their state has allegedly exposed them to too much danger. British public opinion was appalled when they heard that the troops sent to “Hell Land” were fighting without enough helicopters or protection gear. 181 The 2008 French White Paper on Defense defines resilience as the “will and capacity of a country, its society and public authorities to resist the consequences of serious events, then to quickly restore their normal operation, at least within socially acceptable conditions”. The case of the Uzbin ambush on August 18 th, 2008, demonstrated how much public opinion could be traumatized by the death of young soldiers in the course of their duty. 182 Olivier Hubac, Matthieu Anquez: op. cit. 183 The question of the war of relevance was already tackled in the course of doctrinal studies. The confrontation is as much psychological as physical: hatred, courage, stubbornness, but also terror, deception and mind assault are its driving forces. The art of winning over, misinforming or deceiving them has become more important than the art of maneuvering troops. Loup Francart: La Guerre du Sens – Pourquoi et Comment Agir dans les Champs Psychologiques, Economica, 2000. 184 Christian Olsson: op. cit. 180 94 Part 4 – A challenge for the coalition in Afghanistan David Kilcullen reminds us that Al Qaeda, a highly secretive and elitist organization, owes its global infamy to media amplification of the declarations of Osama Bin Laden. The terrorist network often issues divisive statements directly to Western audiences designed to drive a wedge between public opinion and government action, turning the concept of “hearts and minds” in on itself. The British COIN handbook (JPD 3-40) mentions the intense focus that Al Qaeda places on public opinion summed up in a rant by their chief ideologist, Dr Ayman Al zawahiri, hiding in the Afghan-Pakistani border region: “Al Qaeda”s short-term objectives require the support of the masses. The coalition forces try to break us away from the masses. Let us foil the plan of the deceptive media; let us not lose hearts and minds among the general public that is essentially sympathetic to us, and not to them. I am telling you, I am telling you: we are in a war, and over half of the battles are being fought in the media; we are engaged in a race to win the hearts and minds of our own umma”186. 3.3 – the Challenges of globalization (the Internet revolution and global Insurgency) In a comparative article entitled “Counterinsurgency Redux”, published in 2006 in the magazine Survival, David Kilcullen admitted that today’s media-oriented insurgencies have significant differences from those of the post-WWII period. In the classical doctrine, the insurgents were the ones who had the initiative against an established order. The objective of these insurgents was the conquest of power: their organization existed solely for this purpose. Their action was limited to a geographic area, and they had revolutionary goals. In the current situations in the Afghan and Iraqi insurgencies, the rebel groups’ actions are in reaction to American intervention, which increased the influx of foreign jihadist fighters in both countries. These globalized Islamist insurgents compete against each other, they are decentralized and transnational. They often possess more resources than the populations among which, and in the name of which, they operate. They do not aim to govern like a “state” as we know it. They stay relevant through their mass communication and the continuation of the chaotic conditions that serve their agenda. They do not attempt to take control of existing political bodies. They prefer to stay in the shadows in lawless areas. Even if there are but a few hundreds of them, their interloping with local guerrillas makes them all the more formidable an enemy in a COIN situation. For counterinsurgents who traditionally focus on restoring security in certain areas, controlling territories, and separating populations from an identified subversive organization, these new global Islamist players constitute new challenges 187. The jihadists and their transnational objectives are connected to their ultimate goal of a united Islamic umma, and are not dependent With these words, Zawahiri ordered “Al Qaeda in Iraq” members not to videotape the beheadings of hostages so as not to turn public opinion against them. 186 The umma is the community of Muslim believers. 187 Olivier Roy: La Sainte ignorance – Le Temps de la religion sans culture, Seuil, 2008. 185 95 Part 4 – A challenge for the coalition in Afghanistan on a given culture or territory, such as the Pashtunwali culture in Afghan territory. In order to be efficient, borderless Islam insurgents coordinate and interact with supporters and issue calls to arms all around the world, a practice typical of the global Al qaeda movement. David kilcullen’s central thesis, which he spells out in The Accidental Guerrilla 188, is that Osama Bin Laden’s terrorist network spreads and sustains itself by “grafting” into local crises 189. The “accidental guerrilla” situation arises when Al Qaeda members settle down in a conflict area or a lawless area, identified as the “infection phase”. It starts spreading when Al Qaeda uses its sanctuary to disseminate its ideology and carry out attacks around borders in the “contamination phase”. These attacks trigger the action of the international community’s forces in order to neutralize the threat posed by the terrorist cell in the “intervention phase”. The foreign presence is perceived negatively by the local population, who then ally with Al Qaeda in the “rejection phase”, reinforcing the jihadist movement’s hold on the now “infected” area. This cyclic schema describes how the insurgency sustains itself in Afghanistan and how foreign jihadists proliferate in this environment. David Kilcullen believes that in Iraq, where Al Qaeda was not present before 2003, the transition to the “accidental guerrilla” syndrome was caused, and not intensified, by the American intervention. The author concludes that the West needs to better assess the relevance of its “international policing” expeditions, which can be a destabilizing factor for local societies and are likely to send recruits straight into terrorist hands. According to Kilcullen, this form of commitment can only be justified if it is part of a broader strategy of global counterinsurgency. At the dawn of the 21st century, counterterrorism and counterinsurgency look like “network wars”, two aspects of which are: intelligence networks, activated in order to get familiar with and track an increasingly opportunistic and decentralized enemy, and social networks, which are mobilized in order to deprive the mujahid of his popular base and transnational support. There exists a third type of globalized network: the information network, which was born of the digital revolution that fiber optics and the Internet have made possible. This potentially alters the conventional concept of asymmetric warfare. In their respective works, Rupert Smith and David Kilcullen, as well as David Petraeus, who constantly monitored the media in Iraq, realized the extent of the challenges posed by these. The Taliban of 2010 demonstrate an understanding of the usefulness of modern media to convey their propaganda, to embellish their military feats, to discredit the coalition’s action, to arouse sympathy for their cause outside Afghanistan and to entice pious financial contributors to provide funds 190. Their action goes against those of the pre-2001 Taliban, who went so far as to reject any picture of a living creature within their Islamic Emirate. They have adapted. The informational environment is not external to the insurgency, as the water was for the fish in the Maoist phrase “a fish in the water”, it is embedded in it, more like a “jellyfish in the water”. David Kilcullen: The Accidental Guerrilla. Fighting Small Wars in the Midst of a Big One, Oxford University Press, 2009. 189 In the conclusion of the CDEF doctrinal paper dedicated to the French legacy in the American COIN approach (De Galula à Petraeus, op. cit.), this evolution was defined by the new word “glocalism”, meaning the intermingling of global and local elements. 190 Antonio Giustozzi: Koran, Kalashnikov and Laptop – The Neo-Taliban Insurgency in Afghanistan, Hurst & Company, 2007. 188 96 Part 4 – A challenge for the coalition in Afghanistan Beyond Afghanistan, the global jihad has moved into social networks on the internet and has set up virtual safe havens 191. Comparisons have already been made between warfare and software, between guerrillas and computer crime, and between improvised explosive devices (IED) and logic bombs, all of which are issues that require further understanding by counterinsurgents 192. Jihad online is a new reality for those who portray and amplify the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban’s struggle on the web. Since the beginning of 2010, Al Qaeda’s media propaganda has made extensive use of the videotaped last words of humam al Balawi (Abu Dujana al Khorassani), the Jordanian double agent and suicide bomber who killed seven CIA officers and a Jordanian intelligence officer on December 30 th, 2009, at the American military base in Khost, in Southeast Afghanistan. In an online rant that was posted posthumously on the internet on April 30th, 2010, al Balawi sought to compel still-undecided Muslims to join the jihadist cause with the following words: “We will target you with our media productions, laying for you emboldening ambushes and laying motivational mines, in the hope that they will explode within you as admonishments and reminders which will fill your souls with thoughts and inflame your hearts with a desire to join the caravan of champions”. There have been several cases of Islamist internet users becoming indoctrinated into terrorism online, resulting from obsessive consultation of sites which provide technical details on the making of explosive devices and promote the concepts of martyrdom and holy war. As of today, nobody has been able to measure the effects on the “hearts and minds” of counter-radicalization campaigns that would be technically feasible on the internet, and represent a new challenge in the “war of relevance”. Conclusion of part 4 : The center of gravity of COIN in Afghanistan was inserted into the space between the insurgents and the population, which explains why the coalition’s intent in theater is to take action on the population as a top priority. In the South, where the insurgency is fully merged into the population and state institutions are rejected or nonexistent, NATO’s “hearts and minds” concept has found its limits. More important than the calling into question of the force’s legitimacy; time is the main factor that restricts the concept effectiveness. By systematically targeting Western public opinion, which has increasing doubts about the purpose of the commitment in Afghanistan, the global jihadist movement endeavors to extend the field of the struggle for “hearts and minds” using new communication means and technologies. 191 192 Bertrand Valeyre, Alexandre Guérin: op.cit. Thomas Rid, a researcher who works for the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI) at John Hopkins University and the RAND Corporation, and who wrote War and Media Operations, the US Military and the Press from Vietnam to Iraq, 2007, is one of those who started the debate. 97 CONCLUSION 99 Conclusion The “hearts and minds” concept has a truly mythical quality. Backed up by a single notable success – the Malayan Emergency in the 1950s – the now institutionalized doctrine proves difficult to institute in the 21st century despite its clear and acknowledged advantages. The concept was born from the necessity to legitimize the use of force among populations, when the destruction of the enemy does not appear as a required and sufficient reason for armed intervention. The objective is to win over the population in gaining recognition of the host government’s authority on a given territory. It is instituted at various levels, from the forced acceptance of submission to the passive acceptance of tolerance. Counterinsurgency forces intimidate and deter the enemy, but they will rally support to their government if they can successfully inspire the respect of the population. In today’s “globalized” wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the stake is more about mobilizing the masses and controlling social networks, than a competition to impose territorial legitimacy. This mobilization and this control can be achieved, according to today’s COIN theories, by a proportioned mix of incentive and coercion. Taking an objective approach, the population is considered both as the purpose and the means of the COIN activity. The widely acknowledged baseline aim is to protect and serve the population whose support is sought in the stabilization phase in a given country in crisis. In a more ambitious approach, the project becomes the control and shaping of the “social terrain”, which prompts protests and rejection in the West in the name of tradition, law and moral values 193. While some institutional opponents still consider the conquest of “hearts and minds” as an idealistic or deceptive approach that obscures the true military mission of security restoration, non-governmental critics are much fiercer and believe that civil-military actions and psychological actions are substitutes or even alibis for coercive actions, tainted with a whiff of neocolonialism. In the field of security restoration and stabilization, the US, French and UK doctrines, which all make reference to traditional COIN principles, have been converging since the mid 2000s on the population-centric approach and the promotion of CIMIC coordination. Slight differences exist, of course, as was learned in Afghanistan: to understand and “win hearts and minds”, the Americans now deploy teams of anthropologists in khaki, trying to build social capital, having found the limits of the effectiveness of the use of force, whereas the British and the French, with more limited assets, have been fostering dialogue with tribes and the decrease of opportunities for conflict. 193 One aspect that is not covered in this study on “hearts and minds”, raised by fierce opponents to COIN is the blurring between external defense and internal security that would result from the repressive assumptions of anti-subversion without any restrictions. On that topic, read Mathieu Rigouste: L’Ennemi Intérieur – La Généalogie Coloniale et Militaire de l’Ordre Sécuritaire dans la France Contemporaine, La Découverte, 2009. 101 Conclusion Since insurgents are embedded in the local population, the sole purpose of “winning hearts and minds” cannot be an objective on its own. The phrase must be translated into a determined action against “irreconcilable” opponents, while keeping a door open to win over and “reintegrate” the less hostile insurgents. It should be implemented by building support for the host government and its interaction with its own population. Counterinsurgency came late in the game. The social fragmentation caused by the shake up of tribal structures and political fragmentation resulting from the disappearance of institutions add up to economic stagnation and criminality and reduce the hopes for an “Afghanization” of the situation. Few analysts think it can be successfully completed by the required deadline. The Kabul regime and its coalition partners, who integrate political interests and public opinion into their strategic calculations in their own way, often have their own separate agendas. National reconciliation, which is no longer perceived as a disruptive way to harm the insurgents, but as a responsible solution to the crisis, blurs the line between belligerents and non-belligerents and calls into question the binary nature of the entire insurgency conflict. Counterinsurgency requires a narrative. The submission of “natives” to the “civilized” Europeans was the desired end state of “pacification” campaigns in colonial times. In the 21st century, America and its allies are deployed in Afghanistan under a UN mandate and a NATO flag, and endeavor to impose their view of international order in the fight against terrorism and the promotion of human rights and democracy. Their strategic communication, which encompasses many issues, refuses to use a narrative that could be perceived as imperialistic and constantly puts forward the partnership with the Afghan nation. With a difficult security situation, and no purely military solution in sight, the Afghan population finds itself the center of gravity and the stake in the fight between insurgents and loyalists. The perceptions of the Afghan population, the cooperation of which is essential to end the conflict, need to be taken into account along with public opinions at home in ISAF contributor countries, also reluctant to continue their presence in Afghanistan. The trend of “winning hearts and minds” has won recognition in NATO’s decision-making circles, just as the “Revolution in Military Affairs” concept found favor in the 1990s. COIN as a strategy will be quickly brushed aside, however, if the operations in Afghanistan do not quickly demonstrate the effectiveness of population-centric counterinsurgency. The validity of the strategic concept of “hearts and minds” is thus at stake “within the population”, in the field as well as in the battle for public opinion. As such, NATO’s political and military credibility is also at stake, and the Afghan theater serves as a test for the alliance’s expeditionary capability. Public opinion, in this context, puts to the test the capability and will of each nation to shoulder its responsibility in the struggle against terrorism. 102 ANNEXES, SOURCES AND bIbLIOGRAPHY 103 Annexes anneX 1 the 2006 defInItIOn Of “WInnIng heartS and MIndS” In the englISh-SpeaKIng WOrld “Winning hearts” means that you have to “persuade the people that the counterinsurgents’ success is in its own best interest, while ‘winning minds’ means that you have to persuade the people that the loyalist forces are able to protect them and that there is no point in resistance”. I – In davId KIlCullen’S 28 ARTICLES ARTICLE 13: Build Trusted Networks • Once you have settled into your sector, your key task is to build trusted networks. This is the true meaning of the phrase “hearts and minds”, which comprises two separate components. “Winning hearts” means persuading people that their best interests are served by your success; “Winning minds” means convincing them that you can protect them and that resisting you is pointless. Note that neither concept has to do with whether people like you. Calculated self-interest, not emotion, is what counts. Over time, if you successfully build networks of trust, these will grow like roots in the population, displacing the enemy’s networks, bringing him out in the open to fight you, and seizing the initiative. • These networks include local allies, community leaders, local security forces, NGOs and other friendly or neutral non-state actors in your area, and the media. • Conduct village and neighborhood surveys to identify needs in the community – then follow through to meet them, build common interests and mobilize popular support. This is your true main effort: everything else is secondary. Actions that help build trusted networks serve your cause. Actions – even killing high-profile targets – that undermine trust or disrupt your networks help the enemy. II – In ANNEX A (A GUIDE FOR ACTION) Of the uS COUNTERINSURGENCY FIELD MANUAL FM 3-24 Build Trusted Networks A-26. Once the unit settles into the Area of Operations (AO), its next task is to build trusted networks. This is the true meaning of the phrase “hearts and minds”, which comprises two separate components. “Winning hearts” means persuading people that their best interests are served by COIN success. “Winning minds” means convincing them 105 Annexes that the force can protect them and that resisting it is pointless. Note that neither concerns whether people like Soldiers and Marines. Calculated self-interest, nor emotion, is what counts. Over time, successful trusted networks grow like roots in the populace. They displace enemy networks, which forces enemies into the open, letting military forces seize the initiative and destroy the insurgents. A-27. Trusted networks are diverse. They include local allies, community leaders, and local security forces. Networks should also include nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), other friendly or neutral nonstate actors in the AO, and the media. A-28. Building trusted networks begins with conducting village and neighborhood surveys to identify community needs. Then follow through to meet them, build common interests, and mobilize popular support. This is the true main effort; everything else is secondary. Actions that help build trusted networks support the COIN effort. Actions that undermine trust or disrupt these networks – even those that provide a short-term military advantage – help the enemy. 106 Annexes anneX 2 an alternatIve tO “WInnIng heartS and MIndS” In frenCh StabIlIzatIOn dOCtrIne Two population-centric principles taken from chapter 3 (Basic principles of the military action in the stabilization phase) of the French concept of contribution of the armed forces to stabilization (PIA 00-151), a document of the Centre interarmées de concepts et doctrines et experimentations (CICDE) 194 – February 2 nd, 2010. 3.2.4 – act and Close Contact with the population Since the native population is the major stake in the success of stabilization, the armed forces conducting an intervention must: • Establish and preserve close relationships with the local authorities and others identified as key leaders; • prioritize direct contact with the population in the selection of postures and courses of action, particularly in the initial phase of the stabilization period, and always show enough troop presence to the population to ensure that a significant presence is felt; • protect the population and ensure public security if no other organization is in a position to do so during the “state of grace” period of stabilization; • Endeavor to win over the factions of the population that are not fully committed to the insurgency, but display an firm resolve to the other “hard core” insurgent factions; • Meet the population’s basic needs, meaning providing emergency humanitarian assistance if no other organization on the ground is capable; • Endeavor to respect local culture and customs, and avoid courses of action or behaviors that may hurt the pride of the local population; • Reduce the risk of collateral damage by controlling the effects of weapons, in parti cular by using high-accuracy weapons and low-lethality weapons in crowd control actions. 194 France’s Joint Center for Concepts, Doctrine and Experimentation. 107 Annexes 3.2.5 – Influence perceptions Since public opinion is critically important in these kinds of commitments, the forces must develop their capacities to influence perceptions: • By implementing an information strategy aimed at winning the “information battle” in the local and international media, as well as on the Internet; • Through information operations in theater, fighting against disinformation and rumors, and displaying to local authorities and population the force’s resolve, putting emphasis on the positive results obtained since the force’s intervention; • By carrying out CIMIC actions that are in line with the force’s overall strategy and executed by a decentralized administration; • By taking into consideration local cultural and social aspects in the force’s actions and communications. 108 Annexes anneX 3 “heartS and MIndS” aCCOrdIng tO the talIban InSurgentS Excerpts from the last page of the Layeha, the Taliban’s code of conduct, updated and republished regularly since 2006: Statement by the “Commander of the Faithful”, Mullah Mohammad Omar. “My dear mujahid brothers! All that you are undertaking must be carried out in compliance with the sharia; Be a rock before the enemy, do not retreat or give ground; Maintain good relationships with your civilian friends and never let the enemy come between you and them; Be careful when engaged in an operation and do not let you personal problems bring about difficulties; Protect the people and its belongings, this shall be your mission; Do not let capricious people take possession of the civilians’ belongings or cause damage to them”. 109 Sources SOurCeS Official documents • French Ministry of Defence: Winning the Battle, Building Peace. Land Forces in Present and Future Conflicts, Forces Employment Doctrine Center (Centre de Doctrine d’Emploi des Forces/CDEF), FT 01, 2007. • French Ministry of Defence: Doctrine for Counterinsurgency at the Tactical Level, Forces Employment Doctrine Center (Centre de Doctrine d’Emploi des Forces/CDEF), 2009. • Ministère français de la Défense: Concept d’emploi des forces (PIA 00-100), Centre Interarmées de Concepts, de Doctrines et d’Expérimentations (CICDE). • Ministère français de la Défense: Doctrine d’emploi des forces (PIA 00-200), Centre Interarmées de Concepts, de Doctrines et d’Expérimentations (CICDE). • Ministère français de la Défense: Concept de gestion de crise (PIA 00-150), Centre Interarmées de Concepts, de Doctrines et d’Expérimentations (CICDE). • Ministère français de la Défense: Concept de contribution des forces armées à la stabilisation (PIA 00-151), Centre Interarmées de Concepts, de Doctrines et d’Expérimentations (CICDE). • Ministère français de la Défense: Concept des opérations contre un adversaire irrégulier (PIA 00-180), Centre Interarmées de Concepts, de Doctrines et d’Expérimentations (CICDE). • Ministère français de la Défense: Réflexions doctrinales – Options militaires pour vaincre un adversaire irrégulier, Centre Interarmées de Concepts, de Doctrines et d’Expérimentations (CICDE), 2007. • UK Ministry of Defence: Land Operations, Vol. III: Counter-Revolutionary Operations, Part 3, Counter-Insurgency Army Code #70516, 1970. • UK Ministry of Defence: Security and Stabilisation. The Military Contribution – Joint Doctrine Publication JDP 3-40, Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre (DCDC), 2009. • US Department of Defense: Field Manual (FM 100-5), Operations, Headquarters, Department of the Army, 1962. • US Department of Defense: Counterinsurgency – Field Manual (FM 3-24) / [Marine Corps Warfighting Publication (MCWP 3-33-5)], Headquarters, Department of the Army, 2006. • NATO: Allied Joint Doctrine for Counterinsurgency (AJP 3.4.4). • NATO Documentation / International Security Assistance Force (ISAF). 110 Sources doctrinal papers of the french forces employment doctrine Center (Cdef) • TISERON Antonin: La Guerre révolutionnaire. Succès et ambigüité – Le cas des batailles d’Alger, CDEF, 2006. • LE GUEN Adèle: L’Emploi des forces terrestres dans les missions de stabilisation en Algérie, CDEF, 2006. • PICHELIN Quentin: Vaincre une guérilla – Le cas français en Algérie, CDEF, 2007. • DE SAINT-VICTOR Florent: Le Renseignement durant les batailles d’Alger – Les militaires face au terrorisme (janvier-octobre 1957), CDEF, 2009. • VALEYRE Bertrand, GUERIN Alexandre: L’Héritage français dans la pensée américaine de la contre-insurrection, CDEF, 2009. • LEGUAY Anthony: Etat d’urgence en Malaisie – Un exemple d’adaptation à la contreinsurrection par les forces britanniques (1948-1960), CDEF, 2010. Think Tank Studies and reports • SMITH Simon C.: General Templer and Counter-Insurgency in Malaya: Hearts and Minds, Intelligence, and Propaganda, Intelligence & National Security (INS), Vol. 16, #3, 2001. • Collectif: Countering Afghanistan’s Insurgency: No Quick Fixes, International Crisis Group (ICG), Asia Report #123, 2006. • METZ Steven: Rethinking Insurgency, Strategic Studies Institute (SSI), 2007. • JONES Seth G.: Counterinsurgency in Afghanistan, RAND Counterinsurgency Study, Vol. 4, 2008. • SEMPLE Michael: Reconciliation in Afghanistan, United States Institute of Peace (USIP) Press, 2009. • DORRONSORO Gilles: Fixing a Failed Strategy in Afghanistan, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2009. • DORRONSORO Gilles: Afghanistan – Searching for Political Agreement, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2010. • O’HANLON Michael, SHERJAN Hassina: Toughing it out in Afghanistan, Brookings Institution Press, 2010. • GOYA Michel: Les crises en Afghanistan depuis le XIX e siècle, actes de la journée d’études organisée par le Centre d’Etudes d’Histoire de la Défense (CEHD), Institut de Recherche Stratégique de l’Ecole Militaire (IRSEM), Etudes N° 1, 2010. • GOYA Michel, BIHAN Benoist: L’axe du moindre mal – Le plan Obama-McChrystal pour l’Afghanisan, Institut de Recherche Stratégique de l’Ecole Militaire (IRSEM), Cahier N° 2, March 2010. 111 Sources Internet articles • KILCULLEN David: “Twenty-Eight Articles: Fundamentals of Company-Level CounterInsurgency”, 2006. • KILCULLEN David: “Counter-Insurgency Redux”, Survival N°48-4, winter 20062007. • LEWIS Fred A.: “The Ability to do Old Things in New Ways – Counter-Insurgency and Operational Art”, Canadian Army Journal, Vol. 9-3, Winter 2006. • PACKER George: “Knowing the Enemy. Can Social Scientists Redefine the War on Terror?”, The New Yorker, December 18, 2006. • KIPP Jacob, GRAU Lester, PRINSLOW Karl, SMITH Don: “The Human Terrain System. A CORDS for the 21st Century”, The US Army Professional Writing Collection, Vol. 4, The Military Review, September-October 2006. • LUTTWAK Edward N.: “Dead End. Counter-Insurgency as a Military Malpractice”, Harper’s Magazine, February, 2007. • DESTRIBATS Jean-Michel: “Gagner les cœurs et les esprits”, Centre de Doctrine d’Emploi des Forces (CDEF), Doctrine, #12, May 2007. • OLSSON Christian: “Guerre totale et/ou force minimale ? Histoire et paradoxes des cœurs et des esprits”, Cultures & Conflits, #67: Militaires et engagements extérieurs : à la conquête des cœurs et des esprits, autumn 2007. • TAILLAT Stéphane: “Adaptation et apprentissage. Les forces terrestres américaines et la contre-insurrection en Irak”, Revue française de science politique, 2008/5, Vol. 558. • F.D.: “Gagner les cœurs et les esprits, une devise à revoir ?”, AgoraVox, le Média citoyen, March 19, 2008. • LALANNE Romain: “Galula et Petraeus : militaires et théoriciens”, Guérillas – Insurrections armées et sécurité internationale, September 11, 2008. • GROTIUS: “Gagner les cœurs et les esprits de la population en Afghanistan... Quelles actions civilo-militaires ?”, Grotius.fr, 2009. • JAMAIL Dahr: “Occupying Hearts and Minds”, Truthout, May 1, 2009. • MACKENZIE Jean: “US Fails to Win Hearts and Minds in Afghanistan”, Global Post, May 28, 2009. • DIXON Paul: “Hearts and Minds? British Counter-Insurgency, from Malaya to Iraq”, Journal of Strategic Studies, Vol. 32, #3, June 2009. • HACK Karl: “The Malayan Emergency as Counter-Insurgency Paradigm”, Journal of Strategic Studies, Vol. 32, #3, June 2009. • GOYA Michel: “L’Expérience militaire britannique dans le Helmand (2006-2009)”, Centre de Doctrine d’Emploi des Forces (CDEF), Tribune libre, Doctrine, #17: L’Emploi des forces terrestres en Afghanistan, July 2009. 112 Sources • WALDMAN Matt: “These Attempts to Win Hearts and Minds are Futile”, The Guardian, August 16, 2009. • DICKINSON Elizabeth: “A Bright Shining Slogan. How Hearts and Minds came to be”, Foreign Policy, September-October 2009. • GAMBOTTI Jean-Pierre: “Contre-insurrection et stratégie oblique”, Alliance géostratégique, November 23, 2009. • LEYMARIE Philippe: “Du djebel algérien aux montagnes afghanes : nouvelle prospérité de la contre-insurrection à la française”, Le Monde diplomatique, November 26, 2009. • STEIN Jeff: “Anthropology Association Condemns Work with US Counterinsurgency”, Spy Talk, December 3, 2009. • GENTILE Gian P.: “Les Mythes de la contre-insurrection et leurs dangers : une vision critique de l’US Army”, translation by Stéphane Taillat and Georges-Henri Bricet des Vallons, Sécurité globale, winter 2009-2010. • OUAREM Mokrane: “Lyautey au chevet de l’Afghanistan”, Le Monde, April 1, 2010. • CARON Cyrille: “Guerre asymétrique d’Afghanistan : vers un échec inéluctable ?”, Géostratégiques, #27, spring 2010. • Including, of course, the following Wikipedia entries: CONTRE-INSURRECTION, COUNTER-INSURGENCY, HEARTS AND MINDS, MALAYAN EMERGENCY and HUMAN TERRAIN TEAMS. Interviews • Interviews with the author Olivier ROY, islamologue, with Gérard CHALIAND, expert on irregular guerilla warfare, and Gilles DORRONSORO, Afghanistan specialist (20092010). • Exchange with the author Pierre LAFRANCE, French Ambassador, with Pierre CENTLIVRES and Micheline CENTLIVRES-DEMONT, ethnologues (2009-2010). • Interviews with the author Général Maurice DRUART, commander of Task Force Lafayette I, and other French officers returning from deployments to Afghanistan (2010). Conferences • “Hearts and Minds? British Counter-Insurgency from Malaya to Iraq”, conference organized in London by Kingston University, in association with the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), September 21, 2007. • “Counter-insurgency or Stabilisation. Lessons of the Past for Today?”, conference led by Gérard Chaliand at the Institut Français des relations Internationales/French Institute of International Relations (IFRI) in Paris, March 13, 2008. 113 Sources • “Presentation to the Joint Staff College”, conference led by General David Petraeus at CID in Paris, September 25, 2008. • Study by the Center for Historical Studies of Defense (CEHD) of “Crisis in Afghanistan since the 19 th Century” at Ecole Militaire, April 29, 20009. • Outsiders Perspective: “The Russian Army in Afghanistan”, conference led by Oleg Kulakov in Paris, at the request of CDEF, May 11, 2009. • Conference on irregular warfare at Saint-Cyr-Coetquidan, May 12-13, 2009. • “Hearts and Weapons: Paradoxes of Today’s Wars”, conference led by CDEF in Paris November 23, 2009. • Discourse by General Stanley McChrystal in front of the auditors of the Institute of Superior Studies of National Defense (IHEDN) at Ecole Militaire, April 16, 2010. • Meeting at IRSEM: “Afghanistan and Pakistan – The Recent Evolution of the conflict and the Lessons of History”, May 3, 2010. 114 bibliography bIblIOgraphy Military Studies on Modern Wars and Counterinsurgency (20 th and 21 st Centuries) • LYAUTEY Louis Hubert: Du rôle colonial de l’armée, Armand Colin, 1900. • TRINQUIER Roger: Modern Warfare, a French View of Counterinsurgency, Praeger, 1964 / reed. RAND Corporation, 2005. • GALULA David: Pacification in Algeria (1956-1958), Praeger, 1963 / reed. RAND Corporation, 2006. • GALULA David: Counterinsurgency Warfare, Theory and Practice, Greenwood Press, 1964 / reed. Hailer Publishing, 2005. • THOMPSON Robert: Defeating Communist Insurgency. Experiences from Malaya and Vietnam, Chatto & Windus, 1966. • PAGET Julian: Emergency in Malaya, Faber & Faber, 1967. • THOMPSON Robert: No Exit from Vietnam, Chatto & Windus, 1969. • THOMPSON Robert: Revolutionary War in World Strategy (1945-1969), Chatto & Windus, 1970. • KITSON Frank: Low Intensity Operations: Subversion, Insurgency, Peace-Keeping, Faber & Faber, 1971. • KITSON Frank: A Bunch of Five, Faber & Faber, 1977. • STUBBS Richard: Hearts and Minds in Guerilla Warfare: Malayan Emergency (19481960), Oxford University Press, 1989. • COLBY William, McCARGAR James: Lost Victory: A First-Hand Account of America’s Sixteen Year War in Vietnam, Contemporary Books, 1989. • HURT Richard A.: Pacification – The American Struggle for Vietnam’s Hearts and Minds, Westview Press, 1998. • ROBIN Marie-Dominique: Escadrons de la mort, l’école française (The Death Squads: The French School), La Découverte, 2004. • NAGL John A.: Learning to Eat Soup with a Knife – Counterinsurgency Lessons from Malaya and Vietnam, Praeger, 2002 / reed. Chicago University Press, 2005. • KALDOR Mary: New and Old Wars: Organised Violence in a Global Era, Polity Press, 2006. • KALDOR Mary: Human Security: Reflections on Globalization and Intervention, Polity Press, 2007. 115 bibliography • SMITH Rupert: The Utility of Force – The Art of War in the Modern World, Allen Lane, 2005 / L’Utilité de la Force – L’Art de la guerre aujourd’hui, Economica, 2007. • CHALIAND Gérard: L’Amérique en guerre – Irak, Afghanistan, Editions du Rocher, 2007. • NIVAT Anne: Lendemains de guerre en Afghanistan et en Irak, Le Livre de Poche, 2007. • JORDAN David, KIRAS James D., LONSDALE David J., SPELLER Ian, TUCK Christopher, WALTON C. Dale: Understanding Modern Warfare, Cambridge University Press, 2008. • MARSTON Daniel, MALKASIAN Carter (editor): Counterinsurgency in Modern Warfare, Osprey Publishing, 2008. • FILKINS Dexter: The Forever War, Knopf, 2008. • DANIEL Sara (editor): Guerres d’aujourd’hui – Pourquoi ces conflits ? Peut-on les résoudre ? Editions Delavilla, 2008. • CHALIAND Gérard: Le Nouvel Art de la guerre, L’Archipel, 2008. • CHALIAND Gérard: Les Guerres irrégulières (XX e -XXI e siècle) – Guérillas, Terrorismes, Gallimard, Coll. Folio Actuel, 2008. • DE LA GRANGE Arnaud, BALANCIE Jean-Marc: Les Guerres bâtardes – Comment l’Occident perd les batailles du XX e siècle, Perrin, 2008. • COURMONT Barthélémy, RIBNIKAR Darko: Les Guerres asymétriques – Conflits d’hier et d’aujourd’hui, terrorisme et nouvelles menaces, Institut de la Recherche Internationale et Stratégique (IRIS), second edition, revised and improved, Dalloz, Coll. Enjeux stratégiques, 2009. • KILCULLEN David: The Accidental Guerrilla – Fighting Small Wars in the Midst of the Big One, Oxford University Press, 2009. • RIGOUSTE Mathieu: L’Ennemi intérieur – La Généalogie coloniale et militaire de l’ordre sécuritaire dans la France contemporaine, La Découverte, 2009. publications on afghanistan (after 2001): • ÉTIENNE Gilbert: Imprévisible Afghanistan, Sciences Po Press, Coll. La Bibliothèque du Citoyen, 2002. • MICHELETTI Eric: Special Forces: War Against Terrorism in Afghanistan, Histoires & Collections, 2003. • DOMBROWSKY Patrick, PIERNAS Simone: Géopolitique du nouvel Afghanistan, Ellipses, Coll. Référence Géopolitique, 2005. • JOHNSON Chris, LESLIE Jolyon: Afghanistan – The Mirage of Peace, Zed Books, 2005. 116 bibliography • GANNON Kathy: I is for Infidel – From Holy War to Holy Terror: 18 Years inside Afghanistan, Public Affairs, 2005. • CHAYES Sarah: The Punishment of Virtue – Inside Afghanistan after the Taliban, Penguin Press, 2006. • HAIDER Habib, NICOLAS François: Afghanistan – Reconstruction et développement, Editions Autres Temps, Coll. Temps Choc, 2006. • GIUSTOZZI Antonio: Koran, Kalashnikov and Laptop – The Neo-Taliban Insurgency in Afghanistan, Hurst & Company, 2007. • RASHID Ahmed: Descent into Chaos – How the war against Islamic extremism is being lost in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Central Asia, Allen Lane, 2008 / Le Retour des Talibans, Editions Delavilla, 2009. • CREWS Robert D., TARZI Amin (editor): The Taliban and the Crisis of Afghanistan, Harvard University Press, 2008. • DOBBINS James F.: After the Taliban – Nation-Building in Afghanistan, Potomac Books, 2008. • SINNO Abdulkader H.: Organizations at War in Afghanistan and Beyond, Cornell University Press, 2008. • MERCHET Jean-Dominique: Mourir pour l’Afghanistan, Editions Jacob-Duvernet, 2008. • HUBAC Olivier, ANQUEZ Matthieu: L’Enjeu afghan – La Défaite interdite, André Versaille Editeur, 2009. • JONES Seth: In the Graveyard of Empires – America’ s War in Afghanistan, W.W. Norton & Company, 2009. • GIUSTOZZI Antonio (editor): Decoding the New Taliban – Insights from the Afghan Field, Hurst & Company, 2009. • GIUSTOZZI Antonio: Empires of Mud – Wars and Warlords in Afghanistan, Hurst & Company, 2009. • MARSDEN Peter: Afghanistan – Aid, Armies and Empires, I.B. Tauris, 2009. • WARDAK Amin: Mémoires de guerre, Arthaud, 2009. • QUENTIER Ariane: Afghanistan, au cœur du chaos, Denoël, Coll. Impacts, 2009. • JAUFFRET Jean-Charles: Afghanistan (2001-2010) – Chronique d’une non-victoire annoncée, Editions Autrement, Coll. Frontières, 2010. • LAGARDE Dominique: Afghanistan – En finir avec la guerre ? Roularta Editions / L’Express, 2010. 117 Photo credits photo Credits Madagascar war, 1896. http://upload.wikimedia.org http://www.madagascar-ision.com Mao Zedong. http://t3.gstatic.com Joseph Gallieni. http://1.bp.blogspot.com http://www.psywar.org Louis Hubert Lyautey. http://www.cheminsdememoire.gouv.fr http://www.psywar.org [email protected] Sir Gerald Templer. http://www.generals.dk [email protected] http://wikipedia.org Colonel Roger Trinquier. http://idata.over-blog.com Village perimeter entrance secured by the Home Guard. Imperial War Museum [email protected] Sir Frank Kitson. http://kenyatembo.giving.officelive.com Lieutenant colonel David Galula. http://t0.gstatic.com Sir Rupert Smith. http://www.nato.int [email protected] Helmand Province. http://fonzibrain.files.wordpress.com [email protected] 118 Photo credits Colonel Gian P. Gentile. http://warhistorian.org [email protected] President Barack Obama and General Stanley McChrystal. http://quierosaber.files.wordpress.com [email protected] http://militaryengineers.files.wordpress.com [email protected] CORDS program. http://johnfenzel.typepad.com Afghanistan. [email protected] Bernard Fall. http://blog.villines.com Afghanistan. [email protected] General Creighton Abrams. http://images.google.com Afghanistan. http://farm2.static.flickr.com Lyndon Baines Johnson. http://perspective.usherbrooke.ca [email protected] Hearts and minds. http://www.loftcinema.com [email protected] General David Howell Petraeus. http://electricityandlust.files.wordpress.com [email protected] Lieutenant colonel David Kilcullen. http://www.army.mil [email protected] American manual FM 3-24. http://ecx.images-amazon.com 119 Translation: CNE (R) Alain BOY; M. William SETTERS, étudiant stagiaire à la section traduction du CDEF Revision (English version): Capt (usnc) Timothy GALLAGHER; LCL (R) Donatien LEBASTARD; M. James GALLOWAY; CDT Aleksandar STEFANOVIC Graphic Designer: Mme Sonia RIVIÈRE Sonia, CDEF/DAD/Section Publications Printing: BIALEC – 95, boulevard d’Austrasie – BP 10423 – 54001 Nancy Cedex Distribution: EDIACAT – 76, rue de la Talaudière – BP 508 – 42007 Saint-Étienne Cedex 1 CDEF Centre de Doctrine d’Emploi des Forces Par les forces, pour les forces Cahier de la Recherche November 2011
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