COMPANY ANALYSIS 14 March 2017
Summary
Stillfront
(SFRG.ST)
List:
Market Cap:
Industry:
CEO:
Chairman:
Major growth drivers ahead

Stillfront’s report for the fourth quarter of 2016 was in line
with our forecast. The user trends continued to rise in
January, indicating a strong start during 2017. Q4’16 was
the first quarter reported according to IFRS accounting
standards; this will increase the comparability to peer’s and
better visualize the underlying profitability of Stillfront.

OMXS 30
Stillfront
120
The pipeline for 2017 looks extremely promising. We see
the launch of Siege: Titan Wars, Conflict of Nations, Bytro
mobile porting and the newly acquired Babil as major
drivers. Stillfront’s pipe of near-term releases is the
strongest in the company’s history, yet the share price is
under unwarranted pressure.

488 MSEK
Gaming
Jörgen Larsson
Per Skyttvall
100
80
60
40
20
0
14-Mar
12-Jun
10-Sep
09-Dec
09-Mar
We have made some forecast adjustments, following strong
KPI development of Bytro, and added Babil Games to our
projections. Our estimated Fair value, in Base-case, is
increased to 125 (105) SEK per share. In our view, the
current share price levels indicate an attractive risk/reward
situation.
Redeye Rating (0 – 10 points)
Management
Ownership
6.0 points
7.0 points
Profit outlook
Profitability
4.5 points
6.0 points
Financial strength
7.0 points
Key Financials
Revenue, MSEK
Growth
EBITDA
2016
95
2017E
169
2018E
249
2019E
263
90%
71%
78%
47%
6%
16
EBITDA margin
28%
EBIT
3
EBIT margin
Pre-tax earnings
Net earnings
Net margin
2015
34
36%
25
60
36%
36
109
41%
84
108
41%
78
6%
26%
21%
34%
30%
3
-1
23
19
34
23
84
60
78
47
-2%
2015
Dividend/Share
EPS adj.
P/E adj.
EV/S
EV/EBITDA
2015
55
2016
0.00
-0.27
0.0
-0.1
-0.3
2016
20%
2017E
0.00
3.45
22.9
4.1
11.5
2017E
14%
2018E
0.00
3.89
20.9
2.8
7.8
2018E
24%
2019E
81.5
6.0
488
37
Free float (%)
Daily turnover (’000)
70 %
5000
18%
Analysts:
Kristoffer Lindström
2019E
0.00
10.09
8.1
1.7
4.0
Share information
Share price (SEK)
Number of shares (m)
Market Cap (MSEK)
Net cash (MSEK)
0.00
7.91
10.3
1.4
3.4
[email protected]
Tomas Otterbeck
[email protected]
Important information: All information regarding limitation of liability and potential conflicts of interest can be found at the end of the report.
Redeye, Mäster Samuelsgatan 42, 10tr, Box 7141, 103 87 Stockholm. Tel +46 8-545 013 30. E-post: [email protected]
Stillfront
Redeye Rating: Background and definitions
The aim of a Redeye Rating is to help investors identify high-quality companies with attractive valuation.
Company Qualities
The aim of Company Qualities is to provide a well-structured and clear profile of a company’s qualities (or
operating risk) – its chances of surviving and its potential for achieving long-term stable profit growth.
We categorize a company’s qualities on a ten-point scale based on five valuation keys; 1 – Management, 2 –
Ownership, 3 – Profit Outlook, 4 – Profitability and 5 – Financial Strength.
Each valuation key is assessed based a number of quantitative and qualitative key factors that are weighted
differently according to how important they are deemed to be. Each key factor is allocated a number of points
based on its rating. The assessment of each valuation key is based on the total number of points for these
individual factors. The rating scale ranges from 0 to +10 points.
The overall rating for each valuation key is indicated by the size of the bar shown in the chart. The relative size of
the bars therefore reflects the rating distribution between the different valuation keys.
Management
Our Management rating represents an assessment of the ability of the board of directors and management to
manage the company in the best interests of the shareholders. A good board and management can make a
mediocre business concept profitable, while a poor board and management can even lead a strong company into
crisis. The factors used to assess a company’s management are: 1 – Execution, 2 – Capital allocation, 3 –
Communication, 4 – Experience, 5 – Leadership and 6 – Integrity.
Ownership
Our Ownership rating represents an assessment of the ownership exercised for longer-term value creation. Owner
commitment and expertise are key to a company’s stability and the board’s ability to take action. Companies with
a dispersed ownership structure without a clear controlling shareholder have historically performed worse than
the market index over time. The factors used to assess Ownership are: 1 – Ownership structure, 2 – Owner
commitment, 3 – Institutional ownership, 4 – Abuse of power, 5 – Reputation, and 6 – Financial sustainability.
Profit Outlook
Our Profit Outlook rating represents an assessment of a company’s potential to achieve long-term stable profit
growth. Over the long-term, the share price roughly mirrors the company’s earnings trend. A company that does
not grow may be a good short-term investment, but is usually unwise in the long term. The factors used to
assess Profit Outlook are: 1 – Business model, 2 – Sale potential, 3 – Market growth, 4 – Market position, and 5 –
Competitiveness.
Profitability
Our Profitability rating represents an assessment of how effective a company has historically utilised its capital to
generate profit. Companies cannot survive if they are not profitable. The assessment of how profitable a company
has been is based on a number of key ratios and criteria over a period of up to the past five years: 1 – Return on
total assets (ROA), 2 – Return on equity (ROE), 3 – Net profit margin, 4 – Free cash flow, and 5 – Operating
profit margin or EBIT.
Financial Strength
Our Financial Strength rating represents an assessment of a company’s ability to pay in the short and long term.
The core of a company’s financial strength is its balance sheet and cash flow. Even the greatest potential is of no
benefit unless the balance sheet can cope with funding growth. The assessment of a company’s financial strength
is based on a number of key ratios and criteria: 1 – Times-interest-coverage ratio, 2 – Debt-to-equity ratio, 3 –
Quick ratio, 4 – Current ratio, 5 – Sales turnover, 6 – Capital needs, 7 – Cyclicality, and 8 – Forthcoming binary
events.
Company analysis
2
Stillfront
IFRS for better comparability
Stillfront Group’s report for the fourth quarter of 2016 was in line with our
estimates. The user trends continued to rise in January, and we should see a
compelling result during the next quarter as well. Given the pipeline of title
launches during 2017 the year will be interesting, to say the least.
Stillfront: Estimate vs outcome
MSEK
Q4'15 Q4'16A
19
5
Net sales
EBITDA
Adj EBITDA
25
7
Q4'16E
23
9
8
Revenue growth rate
EBITDA-margin
26%
Adj EBITDA margin
31%
28%
Dif.
8%
-27%
-10%
22%
41%
34%
Source: Redeye Research, Stillfront Group
During the fourth quarter, the company grew net sales by 31% and
produced an adjusted EBITDA margin of 34%. The newly acquired Babil
Games stood for SEK 2.1m of net sales, despite being consolidated during
only one month of the quarter. In December the user trends continued to
rise, indicating sustained growth during the coming quarter. We want to
highlight that the comparability of our estimates is not entirely perfect as
our projections are based on the old accounting structure. Reporting to
IFRS will increase the comparability with other gaming companies so
investors can better understand the underlying development of Stillfront. In
this report, we have updated our projections according to the new
accounting standard.
Investments and
development for new
releases continue at a high
phase
Investments and development for new releases continue at a high phase.
During the fourth quarter, the investments made resulted in capitalization
of SEK 9.1m. Investments are related to the titles; Siege: Titan Wars, New
World Empires and Conflict of Nations. Bytro is also investing in a new type
of Game engine, set to be released in Q1’18 and a new Supremacy title, likely
launched in Q4’17. Continued development of new titles is crucial for a
sustained growth of the Stillfront Group. Overall we find the report as solid
and see great potential during the coming years as the pipeline for launches
and releases have never been stronger for Stillfront.
The primary driving forces of growth the coming year/years will be:

Full release of Siege: Titan Wars possible during Q2’17
Company analysis
3
Stillfront

Bytro mobile porting will drive users engagement and grow player
base, ongoing from Q2’17 and onwards

Conflict of Nations is the first release based on the Bytro engine by
Dorado. The game shows promising KPIs and will most likely be
launched during Q2/Q3’17

Newly acquired Babil Games holds great promise with a strong
pipeline of releases during the year

Release of Unravel II in late 2017 and continued development of
Coldwoods in-house title, believed to be published in 2018
Major owner taking an expected exit
After the quarter had ended, one of Stillfront’s majority owners sold their
position in the company to a group of institutional investors. Acacia
invested in Stillfront in 2013 and was by the end of 2016 the second largest
owner of the company. Acacia sold 0.6 million shares, 10.8% of capital, at a
price of 85 SEK per share. Per Skyttvall is the Chairman of the Board as a
representative of Acacia. If the investment company’s exit will lead to a
change of Chairmen is something we do not know.
That Acacia took an exit is no surprise, as the investment company focuses
on engagement in smaller non-public companies. Acacia invests primarily
in the tech sector and with businesses that have a turnover of SEK 15-50m.
We find it likely that the company needs the proceeds from the sales to
conduct new investments in other ventures, which are their focus.
Company analysis
4
Stillfront
Bytro – KPIs on the rise
Bytro: Estimate vs outcome
2015- 2016- 2016EQ4
Q4
Q4
MSEK
Bytro produced both net
sales and adjusted
EBITDA that exceeded our
forecast
16
5
Net sales
EBITDA
12
3
Adj EBITDA
10
4
5
Growth
EBITDA-margin
Adj EBITDA margin
33%
-26%
28%
41%
-38%
45%
56
242
23%
3.26
53
235
23%
2.55
53
195
27%
2.14
Dif.
19%
-26%
8%
KPIs
DAU (ks)
MAU (ks)
DAU/MAU
ARPDAU (SEK)
Source: Redeye Research, Stillfront Group
Bytro produced both net sales and adjusted EBITDA that exceeded our
forecast. The reported EBITDA was affected by non-recurring costs of SEK
1.5m in total, related to test campaigns and establishments of new channels.
Quarter, Bytro: MAU (Ks) & DAU/MAU (%)
35%
250
30%
20%
150
15%
100
DAU/MAU (%)
25%
200
MAU (Ks)
Compared to Q3’16 the
user KPIs rose
significantly
300
10%
50
5%
0
0%
MAU (Ks)
DAU/MAU (%)
Source: Stillfront & Redeye Research
Compared to Q3’16 the user KPIs rose significantly. On a quarter over
quarter basis the total Monthly Active Users (MAU) grew by 38%. The
largest increase took place within the flagship title Call of War. Supremacy
1914 also showed a significant advance and produced their highest grossing
month since July 2015 in December. Due to the massive rise in users the
engagement ratio (DAU/MAU) dropped to 23%, this will increase in the
Company analysis
5
Stillfront
coming months and will most likely be boosted by the ongoing mobile
porting of Bytro’s titles. We believe that a greater accessibility through the
mobile will lead to the players logging in more often and spending more
money in game. Due to a weakening Swedish krona, we that the Average
Revenue Per Daily Active User (ARPDAU) would decrease, despite this a
2.55 SEK per Daily Active Users (DAU) was higher than expected.
Quarter, Bytro: DAU (Ks) & ARPDAU (in SEK)
90
3,5
80
3,0
2,5
The ARPDAU was higher
than expected
DAU (Ks)
60
50
2,0
40
1,5
30
ARPDAU (in SEK)
70
1,0
20
0,5
10
0
0,0
DAU (Ks)
ARPDAU (in SEK)
Source: Stillfront & Redeye Research
The new title New World Empires contributed with SEK 0.7m of revenues
during the fourth quarter; this was a disappointment according to the
company. KPI relating login time and gameplay look good, but the
monetization is too low. The company will focus on game design to increase
user spending before paid marketing starts; we have adjusted our estimates
for the title slightly downwards. We want to highlight that the title cost less
than SEK 2m to develop so that Bytro will get their money back in
approximately six months. Not that bad for a title called a
“disappointment.”
Company analysis
6
Stillfront
Estimates for Bytro
Bytro is investing for further growth and have expanded both their
workforce and technical infrastructure. These investments will lead to a
slightly lower margin the coming quarters but are essential for a continued
growth of the company.
Detailed estimate, quarter
mSEK
Q1'16
Net sales
PPC
UAC
Other OPEX
EBITDA
Net sales growth Q/Q
Net sales growth Y/Y
EBITDA margin
Q2'16
Q3'16
Q4'16
16
13
10
12
50
14
16
17
19
66
-1
-6
-1
9
-1
-4
-1
7
-1
-3
-1
5
-2
-6
0
3
-4
-19
-3
24
-1
-5
-1
6
-2
-6
-1
7
-2
-6
-1
8
-2
-7
-1
10
-6
-24
-5
31
-21%
-26%
22%
56%
51%
28%
24%
-12%
45%
9%
22%
45%
8%
77%
48%
14%
65%
50%
54%
2016
48%
Q1'17E Q2'17E Q3'17E Q4'17E 2017E
32%
47%
Source: Redeye Research
We find it likely with a
revenue increase during
Q1’17
As the User Acquisition Cost (UAC) was at a relatively high level throughout
Q4’16 and the KPIs continued to rise during December, we find it likely with
a revenue increase during Q1’17. We expect to see Q/Q growth of 24% with
an EBITDA margin of 45% for the first quarter of 2017. We believe the
mobile porting will start to have a more pronounced effect on the sales
levels from Q2 and onwards.
Company analysis
7
Stillfront
Coldwood – In-house under development
Coldwood: Estimate vs outcome
Coldwood continues to
receive royalties for
Unravel
2015- 2016- 2016EQ4
Q4
Q4
MSEK
4
1
Net sales
EBITDA
Growth
30%
EBITDA-margin
6
3
6
3
42%
49%
57%
50%
Dif.
-5%
9%
Source: Redeye Research, Stillfront Group
Both the reported net sales and EBITDA were almost spot-on our forecast
during Q4’16. Coldwood continues to receive royalties for Unravel that was
released during Q1’16. As the game now is over a year old, the sales figures
continue to decline. In May EA announced that Unravel will have a sequel
and that Coldwood will continue to be the developer. Just to clarify; EA
owns the IP Unravel.
In the Q4 report, we can read that Coldwood has started with the
development of their new game, with the working title CWIP1, which
probably stands for Coldwood IP Game 1.
Detailed estimate, quarter
mSEK
Q1'16
Net sales
OPEX
EBITDA
Net sales growth Q/Q
Net sales growth Y/Y
EBITDA margin
Q2'16
Q3'16
Q4'16
2016
Q1'17E
Q2'17E
Q3'17E
Q4'17E
2017E
8
8
7
6
28
5
4
4
9
21
-4
3
-3
5
-3
4
-3
3
-12
16
-2
2
-2
2
-2
1
-4
4
-12
9
4%
-15%
-8%
65%
61%
57%
-20%
-35%
50%
-20%
-50%
40%
-10%
-47%
30%
150%
44%
50%
43%
56%
-25%
45%
Source: Redeye Research
We believe Unravel II will be released prior the Christmas rush and that
Coldwood will start receiving royalties from the sales during Q4’17. The
coming quarter we expect to see a gradual decline in sales, which also
affects the margin levels negatively.
We have high hopes for
the in-house title, but only
make conservative
financial assumptions
Long-term we expect to see a substantial increase in reported sales for
Coldwood during 2018 and 2019 as the in-house title is released. We believe
that the development will take somewhere between 12-18 months so that we
should see a possible release in H2 2018. With the previous success of
Unravel we have high hopes for Cordwood's own IP, despite that, we only
make a conservative assumption regarding the financial success of the title
before we have more information regarding game genre and the like.
Company analysis
8
Stillfront
Simutronics – Under Siege
Simutronics: Estimate vs outcome
MSEK
Simutronics reported
financial result for Q4
showed no surprises
Net sales
EBITDA
2016- 2016EQ4
Q4
4
1
4
1
37%
30%
Dif.
-15%
5%
Growth
EBITDA-margin
Source: Redeye Research, Stillfront Group
Simutronics reported financial result for Q4 showed no surprises. The
stability and predictability of the income from the company’s old MUD
titles are high. The primary driver of growth the coming quarter will be the
full release of the mobile title Siege: Titan Wars, which are currently in softlaunch. The financial contribution from the title during Q1 was most likely
minor.
The dawn of Siege: Titan Wars draw ever closer.
As discussed earlier the game is currently in soft launch and has been since
late November. We earlier thought that a full release would take place in
Q1’17 but now see Q2’17 more likely. For us the exact timing does not
matter, only the success of the title.
The comments’ regarding Siege in the report was relatively few, except that
the KPIs development has been promising. To date, about 331k players have
tested the game. Given the limited amount of marketing, this is highly
compelling.
One of the most important
elements behind a game
success is the viral effect
One of the most important elements behind a game success is the viral
effect, i.e. word of mouth and recommendations to friends. We believe the
soft launch numbers indicates that Siege benefits from the viral factor when
the marketing begins actual acquisition cost per player will be very
compelling. We can guesstimate the user numbers using the following
assumptions; 331k downloads, similar titles have 30-day player retention in
the range of 15-20% and DAU/MAU of roughly 20%. The current DAUs of
Siege is most likely in the range of 12-15k. In our forecast, we are assuming
that the DAUs will reach approximately 75k by the end of 2017, which is in
our view a highly conservative estimate.
Company analysis
9
Stillfront
Financial forecast for Simutronics
Detailed estimate, quarter
mSEK
Q1'16
Q2'16
Q3'16
Q4'16
2016
Q1'17E Q2'17E Q3'17E Q4'17E 2017E
Net sales
0
1
4
4
8
5
9
11
13
39
PPC
UAC
Other OPEX
EBITDA
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
-2
1
0
0
-2
1
0
0
-5
3
-1
0
-3
1
-2
0
-5
3
-2
0
-4
5
-3
0
-4
6
-8
0
-16
15
227%
3%
33%
92%
36%
37%
20%
32%
16%
205%
43%
21%
259%
45%
Net sales growth Q/Q
Net sales growth Y/Y
EBITDA margin
48%
38%
360%
38%
Source: Redeye Research
Top titles have DAUs in
the millions instead of
thousands, so our forecast
must be seen as highly
conservative
The launch of Siege will be the primary driver of growth for Simutronics
during 2017. As discussed earlier we believe the game will be fully released
in Q2’17. We anticipate that the title today have approximately 12-15k
DAUs, we make the judgment that the DAUs will reach about 75k by the
end of 2017. Top titles have DAUs in the millions instead of thousands, so
our forecast must be seen as highly conservative. We will increase our user
estimates following the full launch as we will gain a deeper insight of user’s
statistics.
Company analysis
10
Stillfront
Babil – A new acquisition
On the 16th of December Stillfront announced yet another low-risk
acquisition, this time of Babil Games. The acquired company is a game
publisher, specialized in the Middle East & North Africa (MENA) region.
Babil is a mobile game published specialized on strategy games to Arabic
users. The current game portfolio of Babil consists of five games titles and
the company produced revenues of roughly USD 3m with a net profit of
USD 0.45m during 2016. Babil was founded in 2012 by Mohammed Fahmi,
Abdullah Fahmi, and Hubertus Thonhauser, which all today constitute the
management of the company.
Babil is not a game
developer but a publisher
Babil is not a game developer but a publisher. The games are primarily
sourced from Asia with long-term exclusive rights, longer than the average
lifetime of a game title. All localized content is Intellectual Property (IP) of
Babil. As such the company “owns” the customization of the title that is
made to fit the Arabic audience. The revenues are shared with the original
developers, but Babil receives the lion share of the income from the
remodeled games.
Game portfolio
Babil has a track record of several successful highly grossing games. The
primary revenue-generating titles during the year have been; Niba Harb 2,
Asefat Al-Dababat, Jaish Al-Foolath and Al Admiral. The pipeline also
seems compelling. The company just recently released the new title Heroes’
Adventure and we expect to see about three to four more titles to be
launched during 2017.
Game portfolio of Babil Games
We expect to see about
three to four more titles to
be launched during 2017
Heroes' Adventure
Source: Babil Games
Price paid and finances
Stillfront is paying USD 4.5m for 100% of the shares in Babil. USD 2.1m will
be paid in cash and the remainder in newly issued shares. In addition,
Stillfront will pay USD 0.3m if and when the accumulated gross income
Company analysis
11
Stillfront
Babil receives from certain game titles amounts to a certain percentage of
the estimated amount.
Multiples and financials Babil Games (mUSD)
2016
Price paid
Sales Net profit
P/S
P/E
4.5
3
0.45
1.5x
10.0x
Source: Stillfront Group
Stillfront will also pay an additional consideration, subject to certain EBIT
targets for the period 2017-2019, amounting to a total maximum of USD
12.5m, of which 50% is paid in cash and 50% in newly issued shares. The
EBIT targets will most certainly be based on significant growth, so we are
confident that the company does not pay any larger sums for the earnings
that the Group will receive.
Why Babil is a great fit for Stillfront
The acquired company is a great addition to the growing Stillfront family
and fits the Groups PLEX strategy very well. Babil does not develop their
titles, merely makes smaller changes in layout and language, but receives a
large part of the revenue they generate. As such the investment needs and
title risk is extremely low; this is likely the main reason why the company
got acquired by Stillfront as the Group has a distinct focus on low risk with
high potential rewards. We also see the possibility of Bytro’s titles being remodelled by Babil as they are now becoming mobile compatible.
We also see the possibility
of Bytro’s titles being remodelled by Babil as they
are now becoming mobile
compatible
Financial forecast for Babil
During Q4’16 Babil contributed with SEK 2.1m in net sales, but was only
consolidated during one month. For Q1’17 we expect to see net sales of SEK
6m with an EBITDA of SEK 2m. We believe new launches will make up for
users churn of older titles and that the company will continue to grow. We
will keep our estimates conservative, as the visibility of coming launches
and financial history is relatively low
Detailed estimate, quarter
mSEK
Q1'17E Q2'17E Q3'17E Q4'17E 2017E
Net sales
PPC
UAC
Other OPEX
EBITDA
Net sales growth Q/Q
Net sales growth Y/Y
EBITDA margin
Q1'18E Q2'18E Q3'18E Q4'18E 2018E
6
8
9
10
32
9
9
10
11
38
0
0
-4
2
0
0
-5
3
0
0
-6
3
0
0
-6
3
0
-1
-21
11
0
0
-5
3
0
0
-6
3
0
0
-6
4
0
0
-7
4
0
-1
-24
14
25%
10%
10%
-11%
6%
34%
32%
35%
35%
37%
10%
15%
37%
10%
15%
37%
34%
Source: Redeye Research
Company analysis
12
19%
37%
Stillfront
Group estimates
In addition to Bytro, Coldwood, Simutronics, and Babil there is also Power
Challenge and Dorado within the group and cost related to HQ. The group
revenue share for these two studios are today below 5%. Dorado seems
increasingly interesting as they are launching a game developed on the
Bytro engine called Conflict of Nations. The game will most likely be
released during Q2’17, but we only make conservative estimates regarding
user growth for the title today. Power Challenge increased their profitability
due to internal optimization. We have adjusted our estimates following the
better cost structure
Detailed estimate, quarter
mSEK
Q1'17E Q2'17E Q3'17E Q4'17E 2017E
Net sales
Other income
OPEX
EBITDA
D&A
EBIT
Net sales growth Q/Q
Net sales growth Y/Y
*EBITDA margin
*EBIT margin
32
39
43
55
8
8
8
8
-30
10
-6
4
-35
13
-6
7
-36
15
-6
9
-40
22
-7
16
21%
9%
27%
14%
14%
18%
18%
25%
25%
25%
10%
169
32
-141
60
-24
36
18%
18%
Q1'18E Q2'18E Q3'18E Q4'18E 2018E
55
53
70
71
9
9
9
9
-41
23
-7
17
-40
22
-6
16
-47
31
-6
25
-47
33
-6
27
0%
69%
36%
26%
-2%
36%
25%
25%
30%
62%
32%
32%
2%
30%
33%
33%
249
36
-175
109
-26
84
47%
29%
29%
Source: Redeye Research
*Based on revenue
For Q1’17 we expect to see net sales of SEK 32m and an EBITDA of SEK
10m.The consolidation of Babil and the continued KPI rise for Bytro are the
main factors that increase the top-line level. For 2017 we expect a healthy
growth driven by the Babil acquisition, the launch of Siege: Titan Wars, the
release of Unravel II and mobile porting of Bytros titles.
Company analysis
13
Stillfront
Valuation
Base Case scenario
DCF-valuation
The required rate of return used in the DCF-valuation is 12.2% which is
derived using Redeye's rating model. We believe Stillfront will continue to
deliver significant growth as the company focus on bringing low-risk titles
to the market. We also expect continued underlying growth in the gaming
market and that an increased mobile focus is a tremendous opportunity for
the company. In the near-term, we believe the revenue uptake will be driven
by Simutronics Siege: Titan Wars, Babil Games and the mobile
porting of Bytro’s game titles.
Estimated fair value of
125 SEK per share
We estimate the long-term average growth to be 24% during 2016-2025.
We believe that the margin will continue to expand during our forecast
period with an average EBIT-margin of 30%. In the terminal period, we
assume a growth rate of 4% and an EBIT-margin of 28%, equivalent to an
exit EV/EBIT multiple of around 9x. Compared to peers this exit multiple
should be considered as relatively conservative.
We have made some forecast adjustments, following strong KPI
development of Bytro, and added Babil Games to our projections. Our
estimated Fair value, in Base-case, is increased to 125 (105) SEK per share.
In our view, the current share price levels indicate an attractive risk/reward
situation.
Stillfront: Base-case
Assumptions
CAGR Sales
EBIT margin (avg)
ROIC (avg)
We see a substantial
upside potential from
current share price levels
2016-25
24%
30%
23%
Terminal
Terminal growth FCF
Terminal EBIT margin
Exit EV/EBIT multiple
4.0%
28%
9x
DCF-value
WACC
Net presenst value FCF
Net present value of Terminal
EV
Net debt
Value assos. Companies
Value minorities
DCF-value
Estimated Fair value
Todays share price
Potential/Risk
Source: Redeye Research
Company analysis
14
12.2%
338
399
737
73
0
-61
749
125
81.0
55%
Stillfront
Relative valuation
We have divided our peer-valuation into three peer groups: Swedish,
Mobile/Casual, and International Gaming to better display valuation
differences between sub-segments in the gaming industry.
Swedish Gaming: Despite the size of these companies the analyst
coverage is low. No projections are available for Paradox and for THQ we
have used our internal estimates. Overall, the companies within this peer
group are expected to deliver healthy profit growth in the coming years.
Stillfront should be comparable to this group given their size and the
expected future development of key drivers such as sales growth and
EBITDA margin.
Valuation is mostly
effected by growth
potential, margins, return
on capital and investors
risk preferences
Mobile/Casual: Companies with a distinct focus on mobile and casual
gaming. Com2us valuation levels, due to a large cash pile, distort the
average to some degree. Stillfront is expected to grow at a higher rate with
better profitability than the peer group.
International Gaming: The companies in this peer -group are the
“whales” of the gaming industry. Most of these enterprises act both as
publisher, developers and platform owners. Most of them are also active in
all sub-segments of the industry (cross platform in all genres). Due to their
size, the direct comparability with Stillfront is relatively low but even so
indicates overall valuation, profitability and growth levels for the industry
as a whole.
Peer valuation
EV/Sales
EV
(MSEK)
Company
SALES
CAGR
EV/EBIT
EBIT margin
2017E
2018E
2017E
2018E
2019E
16-19E
2017E
2018E
2019E
746
867
714
452
n.m.
3.2x
4.8x
2.6x
n.m.
3.3x
3.8x
2.3x
n.m.
11.3x
19.2x
30.9x
n.m.
27.0x
14.5x
27.4x
n.m.
266.7x
12.8x
25.9x
n.m.
n.m.
41%
7%
n.m.
n.m.
25%
8%
n.m.
n.m.
26%
9%
n.m.
n.m.
25%
9%
Median
3 290
3.2x
3.3x
19x
27x
26x
24%
17%
17%
17%
Mobile/casual
Zynga
Com2us
G5 Entertainment
GLU
14 031
6 220
1 452
1 368
1.9x
1.4x
2.6x
0.7x
1.8x
1.3x
2.3x
0.6x
48.3x
3.6x
n.m.
n.m.
30.0x
3.3x
n.m.
n.m.
43.1x
3.1x
n.m.
n.m.
11%
13%
7%
12%
4%
39%
8%
-11%
6%
40%
9%
-4%
4%
36%
9%
1%
Median
3 836
1.7x
1.5x
26x
17x
23x
12%
6%
7%
6%
International Gaming
Tencent
Activision
EA
Nintendo
Bandai Namco
Take-Two
Ubisoft
CD projekt
2 324 468
345 568
219 025
201 783
46 948
43 680
39 000
13 917
11.7x
6.0x
4.9x
5.4x
1.0x
2.6x
2.7x
12.9x
8.7x
5.5x
4.6x
3.4x
1.0x
2.2x
2.4x
16.0x
32.9x
18.1x
16.1x
108.0x
9.8x
17.1x
19.8x
24.5x
25.7x
15.2x
14.8x
25.5x
8.8x
10.8x
15.1x
41.6x
20.3x
13.4x
12.8x
17.1x
8.1x
10.7x
11.7x
16.0x
35%
6%
10%
26%
8%
15%
13%
1%
35%
33%
30%
5%
10%
15%
14%
53%
34%
36%
31%
13%
11%
20%
16%
38%
34%
38%
35%
17%
11%
22%
18%
47%
Median
124 366
5.1x
4.0x
19x
15x
13x
11%
23%
26%
28%
3 836
3.2x
3.3x
19x
17x
23x
12%
17%
17%
17%
465
2.7x
1.9x
13x
6x
6x
40%
21%
34%
30%
Swedish Gaming
Paradox Interactive
Starbreeze
THQ Nordic
G5 Entertainment
5
3
2
1
Peer Group median
Stillfront
Source: Bloomberg & Redeye Research
Company analysis
15
Stillfront
As can be seen in the peer table, Stillfront trades at significantly lower
multiples than the peer groups. We believe the discrepancy is due to the
following reasons:

We believe the valuation
of Stillfront will increase
to better reflect their
underlying fundamental
performance
Lack of understanding of underlying profitability
Why; Differences in accounting practices

Lack of attention in the investment community
Why; Short history as a publically traded company and small size

Lack of understanding of potential in new launches; Siege: Titan
Wars, the in-house title from Coldwood and mobile porting for
Bytro’s games
Why; Many game developers don’t deliver on expectations and
“seeing is believing”.
The last point in the summary above is understandable in our view. The
industry is full of game developers who don’t deliver on expectations.
However, as discussed earlier, we find that the market doesn’t give enough
value to the latest acquisition of Simutronics and their potential blockbuster
Siege: Titan Wars. The market also shows little understanding of the
potential for Bytro’s titles when they are mobile compatible. We also believe
that the potential in the in-house title at Coldwood is not reflected in today’s
share price. This valuation gap will eventually close when and if Stillfront
starts to deliver actual figures in line with our expectations.
Company analysis
16
Stillfront
Sensitivity analysis
As can be seen in the table below, the valuation is sensitive to changes in the
WACC and the assumed sales growth. An increase in sales growth during
2015-25 has a significant impact on valuation. Eg, an increase in CAGR to
31% would imply a fair value of roughly 183 SEK per share.
WACC
Fair value per share
CAGR 2015-25
17%
125 ###
10% 115
11% 100
12% 88
13% 79
14% 72
21%
-5%
139
119
105
93
84
24%
0%
170
144
125
110
98
27%
+5%
208
176
151
132
117
31%
+10%
257
215
183
159
140
Source: Redeye Research
Changes in assumptions of WACC have a material impact on the valuation.
An assumption of 10% WACC would imply a fair value of 170 SEK per
share.
WACC
Fair value per share
EBIT margin avg (2016-2025)
13%
125 ###
10% 123
11% 99
12% 81
13% 68
14% 57
21%
-10%
147
122
104
89
78
30%
0%
170
144
125
110
98
39%
+10%
192
166
146
131
118
48%
+20%
215
188
167
151
138
Source: Redeye Research
The valuation is also sensitive to changes in sustained profitability.
Increasing our margin assumptions by ten percentage points would render
a fair value of nearly SEK 146.
Price implied expectations
The sensitivity analysis can also be used to assess implied expectations in
the share price. We find that a sustained margin of around 19% and CAGR
of 20% are factored into current levels. We consider this conservative
especially the profitability, given the prospects of Stillfront’s pipeline of new
titles and the mobile porting of Bytro’s game portfolio.
CAGR 15-25
Fair value per share
EBIT margin avg (2016-2025)
17%
21%
24%
27%
31%
13%
# ###
50
64
81
104
133
21%
-10%
69
84
104
128
158
Source: Redeye Research
Company analysis
17
30%
0%
88
105
125
151
183
39%
+10%
107
124
146
174
208
48%
+20%
125
144
167
196
232
Stillfront
Bull and Bear-case Scenarios
Bull-case
Our Bull-case indicates an
estimated fair value of
220 SEK per share
In our Bull-case, we assume a larger success for Simutronics title Siege:
Titan Wars. We also model that the company launches new successful
mobile games, within the franchise, in the coming years. In this scenario,
we predict the long-term average growth to be 32% during 2016-2025. We
also model an average EBIT-margin of 33%. Our Bull-case differs from our
Base scenario mostly on the assumed growth rates. Our Bull-case indicates
an estimated fair value of 220 SEK per share.
Stillfront: Bull-case
Assumptions
CAGR Sales
EBIT margin (avg)
ROIC (avg)
Terminal
Terminal growth FCF
Terminal EBIT margin
Exit EV/EBIT multiple
2016-25
32%
33%
28%
4.0%
29%
9x
DCF-value
WACC
Net presenst value FCF
Net present value of Terminal
EV
Net debt
Value assos. Companies
Value minorities
DCF-value
Estimated Fair value
Todays share price
Potential/Risk
12.2%
505
796
1 301
73
0
-56
1 318
220
81.0
172%
Source: Redeye Research
Bear-case
Our Bear-case indicates
an estimated fair value of
56 SEK per share
Our Bear-case assumes a low pick-up in users from the mobile porting of
Bytro’s games and a limited success for Siege: Titan Wars. In this scenario,
we predict long-term average growth to be 19% during 2016-2025. We
model an average EBIT -margin of 22%. Our Bear-case assumes a lower
margin than our other scenarios as the lack of growth gives rise to lower
operational scalability. Our Bear-case indicates an estimated fair value of
56 SEK per share. However, given that our assumptions in the Bear-case
must be seen as highly conservative, we see a low risk given today’s
valuation levels.
Stillfront: Bear-case
Assumptions
CAGR Sales
EBIT margin (avg)
ROIC (avg)
Terminal
Terminal growth FCF
Terminal EBIT margin
Exit EV/EBIT multiple
2016-25
17%
22%
18%
4.0%
18%
9x
DCF-value
WACC
Net presenst value FCF
Net present value of Terminal
EV
Net debt
Value assos. Companies
Value minorities
DCF-value
Estimated Fair value
Todays share price
Potential/Risk
Source: Redeye Research
Company analysis
18
12.2%
183
146
329
73
0
-69
333
56
81.0
-31%
Stillfront
Fair value range
Our fair value range stretches from 56-220 SEK per share with a Base-case
valuation of 125 SEK per share. We find Stillfront conservatively valued and
consider the company as an attractive risk-reward from an investment
perspective. The company has a distinct focus on controlling their risk but
with no reduced possibility to produce a blockbuster title. In the near-term,
we see great potential for Simutronics game Siege: Titan Wars that actually
could be a huge success.
Stillfront: Fair value range
0
50
0
Bear-case: 50
56
100
Last price 80
Base-case:
125
100
150
200
250
150
Bull-case: 220 250
200
As can be seen in the figure above, we consider the current valuation too
low both, compared to peers and the projected fundamental performance,
and see an attractive risk/reward situation.
Triggers and risks
A major trigger for a increased valuation would be if Siege: Titan Wars
becomes a success. We will have more visibility on this in during Q2/q3
2017. Other potential triggers lies in the potential for Bytro’s titles when
they are mobile compatible and the launch of the in-house title at Coldwood
and further releases from the newly acquired Babil Games Another
potential trigger for the share price is when Stillfront makes additional
acquisitions. Finally, as Stillfront grows in size and the market cap
increases, this will enable larger institutional investors to add Stillfront to
their portfolios.
New launches creates
potential but also risks
The risks lies in the success of the new launches. Stillfront has stable
underlying revenue generation from existing titles but in order for the share
price to appreciate significantly they have to deliver on at least some of
these title launches. However, as we mentioned above, we believe the
current share price doesn’t price in successful launches and the downside
risk is therefore limited.
Company analysis
19
Stillfront
Summary Redeye Rating
The rating consists of five valuation keys, each constituting an overall
assessment of several factors that are rated on a scale of 0 to 2 points. The
maximum score for a valuation key is 10 points.
Rating changes in the report
No changes in Rating.
Management 7.0p
The current leadership has delivered in term of both growth and
profitability. Their history in the company is, however, short. The
allocation of capital has through acquisitions improved competitive
advantage for Stillfront Group. The company is picky in their evaluation
process minimizing risk for their shareholders.
Ownership 6.0p
The CEO Jörgen Larsson have significant holdings in the company.
Management controls 24 percent of the capital which implies a
shareholder friendly environment. The institutional ownership is good
for a small cap company listed on First North with Swedbank Robur Ny
Teknik controlling 8 percent of the company. We would like to see
increased holding from the board of directors.
Profit outlook 4.5p
Stillfront’s products have high gross margins and a relatively stable
customer base with good leverage in the business model. The underlying
growth in the gaming industry is a key driver for continued future growth
for the company, where a successful shift towards the mobile segment is
essential. We think Stillfront have good potential for both organic growth
and growth fueled by acquisitions the next coming years. Stillfront is,
however, a small player in a competitive landscape dominated by a few
with no decisive competitive advantages
Profitability 6.0p
Stillfront’s relative small investments have gained high returns of
investments. The company has positive cash flows and high net margins
on their products. The company’s rating is punished due to the brief
history.
Financial strength 7.0p
Stillfront has a strong cash position a major equity issue which was made
at the same time as the IPO in December 2015. Stillfront’s products are
somewhat differentiated and are not affected by a higher extent of the
business climate in the world.
Company analysis
20
Stillfront
Income statement
Net sales
Total operating costs
EBITDA
Depreciation
Amortization
Impairment charges
EBIT
Share in profits
Net financial items
Exchange rate dif.
Pre-tax profit
Tax
Net earnings
Balance
Assets
Current assets
Cash in banks
Receivables
Inventories
Other current assets
Current assets
Fixed assets
Tangible assets
Associated comp.
Investments
Goodwill
Cap. exp. for dev.
O intangible rights
O non-current assets
Total fixed assets
Deferred tax assets
Total (assets)
2015
55
-40
16
2016
95
-61
34
2017E
169
-109
60
2018E
249
-146
109
2019E
263
-155
108
0
-13
0
3
0
-10
0
25
0
-24
0
36
0
-18
0
84
0
-30
0
78
0
0
0
3
0
-1
0
23
0
-2
0
34
0
0
0
84
0
0
0
78
-2
-1
-2
19
-8
23
-18
60
-20
47
2015
2016
2017E
2018E
2019E
4
3
0
0
7
73
9
0
0
82
81
20
0
0
101
117
32
0
0
149
0
0
5
23
0
15
0
43
1
0
0
0
23
0
15
0
38
1
0
0
0
23
0
46
0
69
1
50
122
172
Assumptions 2017-2023 (%)
Average sales growth
15.7 %
EBIT margin
30.7 %
Fair value e. per share, SEK
Share price, SEK
125
81.5
2015
-4%
8%
7%
28%
6%
-2%
2016
30%
35%
63%
36%
26%
20%
2017E
22%
31%
101%
36%
21%
14%
2018E
41%
51%
124%
41%
34%
24%
2019E
23%
36%
75%
41%
30%
18%
158
37
0
0
195
Data per share
EPS
EPS adj
Dividend
Net debt
Total shares
2015
-0.27
-0.27
0.00
-0.84
5.09
2016
3.45
3.45
0.00
-13.10
5.59
2017E
3.89
3.89
0.00
-13.54
5.98
2018E
10.09
10.09
0.00
-19.49
5.98
2019E
7.91
7.91
0.00
-26.42
5.98
1
0
0
23
0
75
0
98
1
1
0
0
23
0
79
0
102
1
Valuation
EV
P/E
P/E diluted
P/Sales
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBIT
P/BV
2015
-4.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.3
-1.4
0.0
2016
393.1
22.9
22.9
4.7
4.1
11.5
15.9
4.6
2017E
468.2
20.9
20.9
2.9
2.8
7.8
13.0
4.1
2018E
411.9
8.1
8.1
2.0
1.7
4.0
4.9
2.7
2019E
361.9
10.3
10.3
1.9
1.4
3.4
4.6
2.2
248
298
Share performance
1 month
3 month
12 month
Since start of the year
0
7
0
7
0
1
0
8
3
0
35
4
39
0
16
0
16
0
0
0
17
4
0
96
5
101
0
34
0
34
0
0
0
34
4
0
119
15
134
0
50
0
50
0
0
0
50
4
0
179
15
194
0
53
0
53
0
0
0
53
4
0
227
15
242
Total liab & SE
50
122
172
248
298
2015
55
-40
-13
3
-1
2
13
15
2
-17
2016
95
-61
-10
25
-3
22
10
32
3
-5
2017E
169
-109
-24
36
-8
28
24
52
6
-55
2018E
249
-146
-18
84
-18
65
18
84
4
-47
2019E
263
-155
-30
78
-20
58
30
88
-2
-34
0
30
3
41
52
Capital structure
Equity ratio
Debt/equity ratio
Net debt
Capital employed
Capital turnover rate
2015
78%
0%
-4
35
1.1
2016
83%
0%
-73
28
0.8
2017E
78%
0%
-81
53
1.0
2018E
78%
0%
-117
78
1.0
2019E
81%
0%
-158
83
0.9
Growth
Sales growth
EPS growth (adj)
2015
90%
-92%
2016
71%
-1,379%
2017E
78%
13%
2018E
47%
159%
2019E
6%
-22%
Free cash flow
Cash flow, MSEK
12.2 %
Profitability
ROE
ROCE
ROIC
EBITDA margin
EBIT margin
Net margin
Liabilities
Current liabilities
Short-term debt
Accounts payable
O current liabilities
Current liabilities
Long-term debt
O long-term liabilities
Convertibles
Total Liabilities
Deferred tax liab
Provisions
Shareholders' equity
Minority interest (BS)
Minority & equity
Free cash flow
Net sales
Total operating costs
Depreciations total
EBIT
Taxes on EBIT
NOPLAT
Depreciation
Gross cash flow
Change in WC
Gross CAPEX
DCF valuation
WACC (%)
-6.1
8.7
43.6
3.2
%
%
%
%
Shareholder structure %
FKL Holding Gmbh (Bytro management)
Acacia Asset Management
Swedbank Robur Ny Teknik
Fyrmax Limited
Nordea Liv & Pension
Christoffer Lundström
Nordnet Pensionsförsäkring
Niclas Eriksson
Avanza Pension
Strömberg Förvaltning AB
Share information
Reuters code
List
Share price
Total shares, million
Market Cap, MSEK
Management & board
CEO
CFO
IR
Chairman
Growth/year
Net sales
Operating profit adj
EPS, just
Equity
Capital
16.0 %
10.1 %
7.5 %
4.1 %
3.2 %
2.9 %
2.8 %
2.3 %
2.0 %
1.7 %
15/17e
74.8 %
240.1 %
�
85.0 %
Votes
17.2 %
10.8 %
8.1 %
4.4 %
3.4 %
3.1 %
3.0 %
2.4 %
2.1 %
1.8 %
SFRG.ST
81.5
6.0
487.7
Jörgen Larsson
Sten Wranne
Per Skyttvall
Financial information
Analysts
Kristoffer Lindström
[email protected]
Tomas Otterbeck
[email protected]
Company analysis
21
Redeye AB
Mäster Samuelsgatan 42, 10tr
111 57 Stockholm
Stillfront
Revenue & Growth (%)
EBIT (adjusted) & Margin (%)
300
800000.0%
700000.0%
600000.0%
500000.0%
400000.0%
300000.0%
200000.0%
100000.0%
0.0%
-100000.0%
250
200
150
100
50
0
2014
2015
2016
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
2017E 2018E 2019E
Net sales
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
-10.0%
2014
2015
2016
2017E
EBIT adj
2018E
2019E
-20.0%
EBIT margin
Equity & debt-equity ratio (%)
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
-2
30.0%
Net sales growth
Earnings per share
0
2014
40.0%
2015
2016
2017E
2018E
2019E
-4
-2
-4
EPS, unadjusted
0.84
0.83
0.82
0.81
0.8
0.79
0.78
0.77
0.76
0.75
0.4%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
-0.1%
2014
2015
EPS, adjusted
2016
Equity ratio
2017E
2018E
2019E
Debt-equity ratio
Sales division
Geographical areas
Conflict ofinterests
Company description
Kristoffer Linström owns shares in the company Stillfront: Yes
Tomas Otterbeck owns shares in the company Stillfront : Yes
Stillfront is an independent creator, publisher and distributor of digital
games – with a vision to become one of the leading indie game
creators and publishers. Stillfront operates through five nearautonomous subsidiaries: Bytro Labs in Germany, Coldwood
Interactive in Sweden, Power Challenge in the UK and Sweden, Dorado
Online Games in Malta, and Simutrionics in the United States. The
Group’s games are distributed globally, however main markets include
Sweden, Germany, the United States and South America
Redeye performs/have performed services for the Company and
receives/have received compensation from the Company in connection
with this.
Company analysis
22
Stillfront
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Redeye Rating (2017-03-14)
Rating
Management
Ownership
40
74
11
125
42
64
20
126
7,5p - 10,0p
3,5p - 7,0p
0,0p - 3,0p
Company N
Profit
outlook
18
97
11
126
Profitability
10
34
82
126
Financial
Strength
21
43
62
126
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Company analysis
23