Quarterly Market Trends Q4 2016

Contents
This page
Summary of key statistics
1 Total card spending
2 Credit card lending
Summary of key statistics for Q4 2016
Payment cards
Number of debit cards in issue (end-2016)
99.6 mn
Number of credit & charge cards in issue (end-2016)
64.0 mn
Payment card purchases
Q4 2016
Annual rate of
1
growth
3.0 bn
0.9 bn
3.9 bn
11.4%
6.7%
10.3%
Annual figures
2016
Annual rate of
growth
11.4 bn
3.3 bn
14.8 bn
11.4%
6.7%
10.3%
Number of
Debit card purchases
Credit & charge card purchases
Total
Number of
Debit card purchases
Credit & charge card purchases
Total
Total value of
Debit card purchases
Credit & charge card purchases
Total
Total value of
Debit card purchases
Credit & charge card purchases
Total
Q4 2016
Annual rate
1
of growth
£120.4 bn
£47.7 bn
£168.2 bn
5.0%
2.4%
4.2%
Annual figures
2016
Annual rate
of growth
£461.0 bn
£185.7 bn
£646.7 bn
5.0%
2.4%
4.2%
Card spending (seasonally adjusted)
2
Growth in the economy picked up in the final quarter, increasing by 0.7%, in part driven by strong consumer spending . This, along with the
Christmas shopping season was reflected in the number of card payments which increased by 117 million, equating to a rise in spending of £4.6
billion on Q3. There were 3.0 billion debit card transactions amounting to £120.4 billion in Q4, up from 2.9 billion transactions for £116.3 billion
in Q3. Credit card transactions numbered 862 million, amounting to £47.7 billion, up from 847 million transactions of £47.2 billion in the previous
quarter.
Expenditure in the services sector rose by 4.4% (£3.9 billion), with the majority (£2.6 billion) coming from the other services sub-sector, mainly
driven by higher spending on government services and telecommunications. Spending in entertainment (restaurants, cinema & theatre) also
grew notably, (up by £0.7 billion or 4.7%). Meanwhile, spending in the retail sector grew by 1.0% (£0.8 billion), mainly due to increased spending
on food & drink and petrol, which were up by £0.3 billion and £0.4 billion respectively.
On an annual basis transactional activity on payment cards continued to grow strongly, by 10.3%, slightly down from 11.3% a year ago. Likewise,
the rate of growth in spending continued, but at a slower pace, falling to an annual rate of 4.2%, down from 8.1% in Q4 2015. This underlying
deceleration has been driven by a slowdown in the rate of growth of spending on services, following double digit growth in 2014 and 2015. The
average transaction value (ATV) for all payment cards decreased during the quarter by 11p, to £43.47. The ATV for debit cards increased, rising
by 4p to £40.12. In contrast the ATV on credit cards continued on long term decline, falling by 44p to £55.20. This decline has in part been driven
by increased adoption and usage of contactless cards, which grew three-fold during the year.
Credit card lending (seasonally adjusted)
Gross lending increased on Q3, averaging £15.6 billion per month up from £15.4 billion in the previous quarter. Net lending (gross lending net of
repayments and other adjustments) slowed down significantly in December, though the monthly average was unchanged on the previous quarter
at approximately £450 million per month. Lending was also depressed last December, a dynamic most likely driven by displaced Christmas
spending into November via the online channel, with events such as Black Friday and Cyber Monday.
Credit card outstandings resumed steady growth at the beginning of 2015. It is difficult to be certain if this signals natural growth, as this
increase follows three upward revisions by the Bank of England, between July 2013 and October 2014 - the result of changes in the reporting
population.
At the end of Q4 outstandings stood at £66.6 billion, up by £0.8 billion on the previous quarter. This total can be split into interest bearing and
non-interest bearing. Around 45% of this total was non-interest bearing3 in the fourth quarter. Additionally, this total accounted for just 4.4% of
total personal sector outstandings (£1,516 billion), a proportion which has consistently declined since peaking at around 6.0% in 2002.
1
2
Growth rates are based on rolling twelve months
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp
3 Source: The British Bankers' Association
© Copyright 2017 The UK Cards Association
Table 1 Spending in the UK on credit cards and debit
Seasonally adjusted
• Payment card spending amounted to £168.2 billion generated from a record 3.9 billion transactions
• Card spending accounted for 76.4% of national retail sales by the end of Q4
• ATVs continued declining, driven by changing consumer habits and increasing use of contactless cards
Number of purchases (million)
Value of purchases (£ billion)
Average purchase value (£)
Debit
cards
Credit
cards
Total
Debit
cards
Credit
cards
Total
2010
2011
2012
6,512
7,231
7,860
2,013
2,256
2,372
8,525
9,488
10,232
290.1
324.1
345.6
128.1
151.3
152.9
418.2
475.4
498.5
44.55
44.81
43.97
63.65
67.07
64.46
49.06
50.11
48.72
2013
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2013 Total
2,010
2,050
2,108
2,163
8,330
616
632
646
655
2,549
2,626
2,682
2,754
2,817
10,879
90.3
92.4
94.2
96.1
373.1
38.9
39.7
40.2
40.6
159.5
129.3
132.1
134.5
136.7
532.6
44.95
45.08
44.70
44.44
44.79
63.22
62.81
62.33
62.03
62.59
49.24
49.26
48.83
48.53
48.96
2014
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2014 Total
2,239
2,287
2,329
2,385
9,240
673
689
706
730
2,799
2,912
2,977
3,034
3,116
12,039
98.3
100.0
101.9
103.5
403.8
42.1
42.2
42.4
43.5
170.3
140.4
142.2
144.3
147.1
574.0
43.92
43.72
43.76
43.41
43.70
62.48
61.28
60.12
59.62
60.84
48.21
47.79
47.56
47.21
47.68
2015
Q1
Q2
Q3
2,458
2,526
2,603
757
776
796
3,215
3,302
3,399
107.3
109.8
110.6
44.8
45.3
45.7
152.1
155.1
156.2
43.67
43.48
42.47
59.18
58.35
57.36
47.32
46.97
45.96
Oct
Nov
Dec
2015 Total
886
892
897
10,262
269
270
271
3,140
1,155
1,163
1,168
13,402
37.2
37.2
37.1
439.2
15.2
15.2
15.1
181.3
52.4
52.4
52.2
620.5
41.98
41.69
41.37
42.80
56.64
56.16
55.63
57.73
45.39
45.06
44.68
46.30
Jan
Feb
Mar
902
908
916
268
270
272
1,170
1,178
1,188
37.0
37.1
37.2
15.0
15.0
15.0
52.0
52.1
52.2
41.05
40.82
40.60
56.00
55.54
55.23
44.48
44.19
43.95
Apr
May
Jun
926
936
946
274
276
278
1,200
1,212
1,224
37.4
37.7
38.0
15.1
15.2
15.3
52.5
52.9
53.3
40.39
40.26
40.18
55.09
55.07
55.11
43.75
43.64
43.57
Jul
Aug
Sep
956
966
978
281
282
284
1,237
1,249
1,262
38.3
38.7
39.2
15.7
15.8
15.8
54.0
54.5
55.0
40.12
40.08
40.08
55.83
55.76
55.63
43.69
43.63
43.58
Oct
Nov
Dec
2016 Total
989
1,001
1,012
11,434
286
287
289
3,349
1,275
1,288
1,301
14,783
39.7
40.2
40.6
461.0
15.8
15.9
16.0
185.7
55.5
56.1
56.5
646.7
40.10
40.14
40.12
40.32
55.49
55.35
55.20
55.44
43.55
43.53
43.47
43.74
2016
Debit cards Credit cards
Chart 1.1
Chart 1.2
Total spending on payment cards
Total payment card transactions
Annual growth rates
Annual growth rates
20%
All cards
15%
15%
10%
10%
5%
5%
0%
0%
Dec 08
Dec 09
Dec 10
Dec 11
Dec 12
Dec 13
Credit value
Dec 14
Dec 15
-5%
Dec 16
Dec 08
Chart 1.3
28
16
12
8
4
Payment Cards
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15
Cash & other payments
Annual growth rates for 2011 have been adjusted in charts 1.1 and 1.2 to
take account of a change in reporting population in January 2011.
0
Dec-16
£ billions
20
Dec-11
Dec 12
Dec 13
Dec 14
Dec 15
-5%
Dec 16
Debit volume
This table shows spending in the UK on payment cards as reported to The UK Cards
Association by the banks and other institutions that process card purchases on behalf of
UK merchants, retailers and other service providers. The data include a small
proportion of spending using non-UK-issued cards, e.g. by tourists, but exclude spending
abroad on UK-issued cards. Cash withdrawals from ATMs are not included.
24
Dec-10
Dec 11
Notes
Monthly spend - three month moving average
Dec-09
Dec 10
Credit volume
Debit value
Retail sales (high street spending)
Dec-08
Dec 09
Chart 1.3 includes spending on automotive fuels.
These data are an extract of Card Expenditure Statistics that are available monthly and
can be found on The UK Cards Association web site at
http://www.theukcardsassociation.org.uk/2016-facts-figures/index.asp
Due to the regular up-dating of the seasonal adjustment process and rounding there are
small differences between the annual figures in this table compared with those
published in Tables 16, 17 and 18 of UK Payment Statistics and monthly Card
Expenditure Statistics.
Credit card lending1
Table 2
Seasonally adjusted. Includes credit and charge cards.
• Net credit card lending remained unchanged, averaging approximately £450 million in the quarter
• Total credit card borrowings amounted to £66.6 billion at the end of the quarter
• 45% of total borrowings were non-interest bearing, up from 43% in Q3
Gross lending
Net lending
Net lending
annual growth rate
Outstanding
balances
Average credit
card interest rate
Source: Bank of
England2
Source: Bank of
England3
Source: Bank of
England4
Source: Bank of
England5
Source: Bank of
England6
£ billion
£ million
%
£ billion
%
130.7
136.5
138.7
1,833
1,286
1,115
3.1%
2.2%
2.0%
58.5
55.7
55.2
16.7%
17.3%
17.3%
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Total
36.8
37.6
39.0
38.8
152.2
561
897
442
588
2,488
2.7%
3.8%
4.0%
4.5%
55.4
55.8
57.3
56.8
17.7%
17.8%
17.9%
18.1%
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Total
Q1
Q2
Q3
39.2
39.4
39.4
42.7
160.7
42.8
43.6
44.0
715
661
618
921
2,915
694
903
1,079
4.8%
4.3%
4.6%
5.1%
57.1
57.2
58.5
61.0
17.3%
17.4%
17.5%
17.8%
5.0%
5.3%
6.0%
61.5
61.9
62.7
17.8%
17.8%
17.9%
Oct
Nov
Dec
Total
14.9
15.0
14.6
174.9
213
439
443
3,771
5.7%
6.0%
6.2%
6.2%
62.8
63.1
63.4
63.4
18.0%
17.9%
17.9%
17.9%
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
15.1
15.2
14.9
15.2
15.1
15.1
15.5
15.2
15.4
520
259
616
265
511
567
457
402
488
6.8%
6.7%
7.4%
6.9%
7.5%
8.0%
8.1%
8.1%
8.4%
63.8
63.8
64.3
64.4
64.8
65.2
65.4
65.7
65.8
18.0%
17.9%
17.9%
18.0%
17.9%
17.9%
18.0%
17.9%
17.9%
Oct
Nov
Dec
Total
16.0
15.4
15.5
183.6
578
544
228
5,435
9.0%
9.1%
8.7%
66.2
66.6
66.6
18.0%
18.0%
18.0%
2013
2013
2014
2014
2015
2016
2016
Chart 2.1
Chart 2.2
Annual growth rate of net credit card lending
Total credit card borrowings5
10%
70
8%
65
6%
60
4%
55
2%
0%
Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec 16
1
2
3
4
£ billions
2010
2011
2012
Dec 11
Dec 12
Dec 13
Dec 14
Dec 15
50
Dec 16
After a review the composition of this table changed with effect of Q1 2013. The 'repayments ratio' has been replaced with net credit card lending.
Series LPMVZQO. Gross lending equates to new spending including interest and any other charges.
Series LPMVZQX. Net lending is gross lending net of repayments and other adjustments.
Series LPMVVUZ. Growth rates are as published at end period e.g. growth rate for 2015 was the figure published in December 2015.
5
Outstanding balances are reported to the Bank of England by all UK credit card issuers. There were upward revisions in July 2013, September 2014 and October
2014 (£5 billion in total) to account for changes in reporting population.
6
Series IUMCCTL published as at end-period. This is expressed in terms of Annual Percentage Rate of Charge (APR) for purchases only and is weighted according to
each credit card issuer's monthly gross credit card lending.
All data series are available from the Bank of England website at :http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/boeapps/iadb/SimpleSearch.asp?Travel=Nix