Watching our Weight
Steel Content of N. American Auto
John Schnatterly
Mega Associates Ltd
www.autosteel.org
Steel Remains the Material of Choice
•What percent of your car is steel?
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History of Steel Content Analysis
• In ’80’s and ‘90’s American Metal Market
published estimates of steel content in light
vehicles, but the author retired
• AISI asked Mega Associates to study steel content
trends of N. American vehicles
– production years 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2008
• Simple in concept
– Add up all the steel shipments going to auto
– Divide by the total weight of vehicles produced
– Determine average steel content
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The Simple Equations
• Divide the steel going to produce new vehicles in N.
America by the total weight of all the vehicles
produced in N. America
• Incidental to reaching that value we want to also
calculate the curb weight and the weight of steel in
the average vehicle
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Calculation Complications
• Seems simple enough . . . but complications:
• In the steel calculation
– There are many indirect channels in the steel
supply chain besides direct shipments to auto
makers
– Imports and exports in components made of
some steel must be considered
• In the auto calculation
– Must sift through production, specs, to first
calculate weighted curb averages
– Not all vehicle curb weights readily available
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Steel Flow Schematic 2008
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Vehicle Production and Weight
• Each vehicle model is produced in varying styles or
permutations with different curb weights
– Production volumes available (from Wards) for just the
mother model, but some info available for engines, body
style, drive, etc
– Must calculate ~190 models and their permutations
• Specs (curb weights) lacking for medium and heavy
trucks
– Must be researched outside Wards numbers
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Presentation Alert !
•The
The most recent analysis presented
here is for 2008 ! ! !
• While some structural changes were beginning to
occur in the auto industry . . .
– This is before the catastrophe of 2009
• 2009 steel and vehicle data and analysis is not yet
available
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THE 2008 VEHICLE STORY
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2008 N. America Vehicle Production
12,923,276
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N.A. Vehicle Trends
• Overall production 12,923,276
– down 19% from 2006
• Continued downward trend of light trucks
– Vans, SUVs, PUs Approx. 2,000,000 less
(down 24%)
• Cars down about 670,000 (- 10%)
• Med/Hvy Trucks down 284,000 (-45%)
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Average Weight of All Vehicles
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2008 N.A. Production, Weight
Average curb weight
down 185 lbs
Total weight down 15 billion lbs,
or 7.5 million tons
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2008 Avg Weight Lt Vehicles
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Vehicle Mix Changes from 2006
Only 14% of weight
change due to mix change
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Vehicle Weight Summary
• Average 2008 N.A. vehicle weight is
4,127
– Light vehicle
3,928 +/- 142 lbs
– e.g., Acura RDX
Jeep Liberty
• 2006 was: 4,312 all and 3,974 light
– - 4% (significant) change in average weight
– Only 14% of difference due to mix change
– Biggest negative effect on curb weight change
due to weight change of pickups
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THE 2008 STEEL TO AUTO STORY
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Review of Methodology
• Stats from: AISI, Stats Canada, CANACERO
• 3 country files aggregated
Steel shipments by product type
minus exports
plus adjustments
= domestic shipment
plus indirect channel
plus imports to auto.
= auto received
minus
minus
plus
minus
=
loss (yield) in assy
aftermarket
import components
export of components
Steel to new auto.
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Steel Shipments to Auto
Skipping to the last set of adjustments in the calculation . . .
Includes direct to auto shipments, indirect, imports
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result
N.A. Steel to New Auto – simulation
Mean = 17,302,860
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Contribution to Variance
• Flat rolled
products through
USA service
centers largest
variable in the
model
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2008 Steel Summary
• 2008 total N.A. steel shipments 131,169,369
– Down 12% from 2006
• Steel shipments direct to auto 16,390,196
– Down 18.5% from 2006
• Steel Shipped to Auto all channels 25,182,441
– Down 20% from 2006
• Total Steel into New Auto 17,302,860
– Down 21% from 2006
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2008
COMBINED VEHICLE AND STEEL
MODELS
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Combined Vehicle and Steel Models
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Summary of combined model
• The average vehicle weight = 4,127
– With 95% certainty at +/- 360 lb
• The steel in average vehicle = 2,678
– With 90% certainty at +217/-162 lb
• This gives us 65% steel content
– With 90% certainty at +12/-9%
Note: variability due to averaging curb weight and uncertainty in steel channel flows
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Sanity Check
• Note original AMM series was for light vehicles
– Also may not have fully addressed increase in
weight due to SUVs
• A2Mac1 references
– Mega reviewed their vehicle breakdowns
•The A2Mac1 data appears to support the
Mega data
•There remains uncertainty at the level of
medium and heavy trucks
• Recycling Institute has similar number
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TRENDS IN AUTO STEEL CONTENT
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Model trends and “4” Yr Average
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
30,000,000
tons
25,000,000
20,000,000
15,000,000
10,000,000
5,000,000
0
N.A. 2004
N.A. 2005
N.A. 2006
4 Yr AVG
Total Shipped to Auto
lbs
35,000,000
Steel to New Auto
Vehicle Production
lb / Vehicle
Avg. Vehicle Weight
29,522,570 t
20,588,441 t
15,335,493
2,685 lbs (63%)
4,257 lbs
N.A. 2008
Years
Steel content
3 YR Rolling Average
’04 – ’06 Average Steel Content 62.6%
’05, ’06, ’08 Average Steel Content 62.3%
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63%
Steel content trend
2008 curb
weight
outside the
4 yr std dev
68%
62%
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Steel
content is
remaining
statistically
stable
Questions
• This analysis of steel content in North American vehicles
was conducted by Mega Associates for the American Iron
and Steel Institute Automotive Applications Committee
• Contact Mega Associates for more details
– [email protected]
– 412-835-6267
– www.mega-associates.com
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