Executive Summary
Africa’s population is as diverse as its geographic features. With a total population of 1.02b in 2010 (United
Nations medium-variant estimate), Africa is home to almost 15% of the global population – the second most
populous continent, after Asia. The African population is geographically very unevenly distributed and the
sizes of individual African countries vary significantly from highly populous countries such as Nigeria and
Ethiopia to small island states such as the Seychelles.
In general, Africa’s population is characterised by high fertility rates, high population growth rates, low life
expectancies at birth, young age structures with low median ages, large numbers and percentages of
children, high age dependency ratios, low urbanisation levels but high urbanisation growth rates, high adult
and youth illiteracy rates, low educational attainment levels, low transition rates from primary to secondary
education, high gender disparities favouring boys, high crude death rates, high infant and child mortality
rates, high maternal mortality ratios, severe HIV/AIDS epidemics, high incidence of infectious diseases such
as TB and malaria, poor health services, low human development and widespread poverty and hunger.
However, there is a great deal of variation with regard to these socio-demographic characteristics between
and within African countries and regions.
The aim of this publication is to provide a socio-demographic profile of Africa based on the latest available
data, to identify important socio-demographic trends (historical and future) and to discuss the implications of
these trends. The publication consists of five profiles, addressing a variety of socio-demographic indicators,
viz, population profile, health profile, urbanisation and migration profile, education profile, and human
development profile. Each of these profiles provides current and projected data (if available) for each of the
55 African countries and three overseas territories. In addition, the data are also provided for the five major
African regions, as well as for the world, more developed and less developed regions.
Some of the most important socio-demographic trends identified are the following:
 Africa is a continent of continued rapid population growth. According to the latest UN medium-variant
projections, the population of Africa is expected to more than double in size, reaching 2.2b by 2050. By then,
one in every four people in the world will be living on the African continent. Although total fertility and crude
birth rates have been declining in most African countries since the 1970s, resulting in a slowdown in
population growth rates, a trend that is expected to continue over the next couple of decades, Africa will
continue to experience the most rapid population growth rates in the world. However, population growth will
not be uniform across the continent. Some of the most important environmental implications and
challenges of continued rapid population growth are increased freshwater shortages and water scarcity,
growing food insecurity, increasing biodiversity loss and growing emissions of greenhouse gases that
contribute to climate change.
 Africa is a continent with a very young population. In demographic terms, Africa has, and will continue
to have the youngest population in the world, with the largest proportion of children and young people,
reflecting high fertility and birth rates. In fact, 60% of Africa’s population is currently younger than 25 years.
Although fertility rates are expected to continue declining over the next couple of decades, almost 50% of
Africa’s population is projected to be younger than 25 years by 2050. The future of Africa lies in the hands of
these children and young people. They represent the potential of African countries’ future development and
achievement. However, when the number of children grows faster than the ability to provide the younger
generation with the necessary education, health care and food security, and the ability to provide
employment for young people is lacking, human and economic development is hampered. In general,
African countries with high fertility rates and young age structures tend to have low human development
rankings, low secondary education enrolment ratios, low life expectancies at birth and high mortality ratios.
 Africa is a continent heading for a demographic bonus and possibly a demographic dividend. If
fertility rates continue to decline as the latest UN medium-variant projections assume, the age structure of
Africa’s population is expected to change in the long term with declining numbers and proportions of children
and young people versus increasing numbers and proportions of people of working age and older persons. A
demographic bonus is reached when the majority of a population is of working age (ie, aged 15-64 years).
For the demographic bonus to turn into a demographic dividend, viz, into a gain for the national economy,
the people of working age must be educated and employed. Currently, the majority of African countries have
not yet reached the demographic bonus stage since their populations are still dominated by large numbers of
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children and young people (reflecting high fertility rates) who are dependent on the working age populations.
In fact, the proportion of potentially employable people in Africa is still relatively low, which hampers
economic development. However, if the UN medium-variant projections become a reality and fertility rates
continue to decline, the ratio between dependent people (viz, children and older persons) and working age
people will gradually change in favour of the latter. Once the demographic bonus has been reached, it will
only turn into a demographic dividend if sufficient employment opportunities are created. If not, the
demographic bonus will turn into a demographic burden.
 Africa is a continent that will experience population ageing in the long term. The demographic bonus
will not last forever because the large population cohorts are becoming older and the next generations do not
equal them in size. Although Africa’s population is currently still regarded as a young population, UN
projections indicate that shortly after 2050, more than 7% of Africa’s population will be older persons, which
means that in demographic terms Africa’s population will then be classified as an old population. In absolute
terms, the number of people aged 65 and older in Africa is projected to increase by 108m (or 301%) between
2010 and 2050. The process of population ageing will be most advanced in Northern and Southern African
countries. Many African countries will simply not be able to meet the financial, health care and housing
needs of growing numbers of older persons.
 Africa is a continent with a rapidly urbanising population. Although Africa is, and will continue to be the
least urbanised region in the world, its population is urbanising rapidly. In fact, Africa is experiencing, and will
continue to experience the highest urban growth rates in the world, with rural depopulation projected to
become a reality after 2040. However, the level and pace of urbanisation are not uniform across the
continent. In general, Northern and Southern African countries have the highest urbanisation levels, but the
lowest urban growth rates, while Eastern African countries are the least urbanised, but are experiencing the
highest urban growth rates. Rapid urbanisation has many positive implications and benefits. If well managed,
cities offer important opportunities for economic and social development. In fact, no country has ever
achieved sustained economic growth and rapid social development without urbanisation. However, rapid
urbanisation, especially in less developed countries is also often associated with numerous urban problems,
such as housing shortages and slum areas, water and sanitation problems, waste disposal problems, air
pollution, and traffic congestion.
 Africa is a continent with unprecedented health challenges. In spite of progress made in the past
couple of decades, Africa (especially sub-Saharan Africa) remains the region with the lowest life expectancy
at birth, the highest crude death rates (including infant and child mortality rates), the highest maternal
mortality ratios, the lowest contraceptive use and the worst HIV/AIDS epidemics in the world. It is also a
continent plagued by other communicable diseases such as TB, malaria and diarrhoea, and a region where
undernourishment and food insecurity form part of people’s daily life. Although the majority of deaths in
Africa are, and will continue to be, attributable to communicable diseases, at least until 2025, the risk factors
for non-communicable and chronic diseases, such as unhealthy diets and lack of exercise, often associated
with urbanisation and rising income levels, are on the rise in many African countries, representing an
emerging threat. In addition, the continent has to cope with a shortage of health workers, health services,
water and sanitation services, and the migration of health professionals.
 Africa is a continent that faces an education emergency. Although Africa, in general, has made
significant progress in reducing illiteracy and in improving educational attainment since the mid-1980s, the
continent (especially sub-Saharan Africa) continues to lag behind other major regions in the world. Based on
current trends it will not achieve the Education for All goals by 2015, nor will it achieve the education-related
MDG targets by 2015. In fact, sub-Saharan Africa is home to 170m illiterate adults – 27% more than two
decades ago, and has the lowest youth literacy rates in the world. Approximately 30m African children are
still out of school, in spite of significant progress made in primary education enrolment. The transition rates
from primary to secondary education, as well as secondary education gross enrolment ratios are lowest in
Africa. In addition, sub-Saharan Africa has exceptionally high primary and secondary education learnereducator ratios, with a severe shortage of qualified educators. As a result, learning achievements among
primary and secondary education learners in many sub-Saharan countries are poor. Sub-Saharan Africa is
also the region with the lowest number of tertiary enrolments and gross enrolment ratios, with severe gender
disparities favouring males.
 Africa is a continent plagued by widespread poverty and generally low human development
rankings. In general, the HDI (an important indicator of human development) of the majority of African
countries improved over the past three decades, reflecting progress made in various aspects of human
development. Exceptions are high HIV-prevalence countries, particularly in Southern Africa where HDI
values declined during the 1990-2005 period due to the impact of AIDS on mortality and life expectancy at
 Africa is a continent with good news, but many challenges remain.
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birth. Nonetheless sub-Saharan Africa remains the region with the lowest HDI in the world. In addition,
multidimensional poverty and income poverty are widespread in Africa, particularly in Western, Middle and
Eastern African countries.
 Africa is a continent with good news, but many challenges remain. When compared to other major
regions and countries in the world, the socio-demographic trends of Africa, particularly sub-Saharan Africa
identified and discussed in this publication paint a rather unfavourable picture of the continent. However,
when analysing the socio-demographic trends of Africa over time and comparing the current state of Africa’s
population with that of a few decades ago, the picture becomes more favourable and more optimistic,
entailing some good news.
In fact, numerous positive socio-demographic trends can be identified for the continent as a whole, viz,
declining fertility and birth rates; a slowdown in population growth rates; increasing life expectancy at birth;
declining proportions of children versus increasing proportions of people of working age; decreasing age
dependency ratios; declining crude death rates; declining infant and child mortality rates; declining maternal
mortality ratios; increased use of contraceptives; increasing adult and youth literacy rates; rising numbers of
primary, secondary and tertiary education enrolments; declining numbers of children out of school;
increasing numbers of educators; improvements in human development; a decline in the prevalence of
hunger; and improvements in access to safe drinking water and improved sanitation services.
However, many socio-demographic challenges remain. Without a significant decline in fertility rates, rapid
population growth will continue to hamper human and economic development, and will have serious
implications for the environment (eg, water and food scarcity, biodiversity loss, pollution). As long as
mortality, especially child mortality, and fertility remain high in sub-Saharan Africa, a demographic bonus
cannot emerge and the opportunity for economically favourable development will be lost. Investments in
health and family planning, as well as in education have been identified as the most important starting points
to attain a demographic bonus. Without a significant improvement in the level of educational attainment of
Africa’s children and youth, without adequate job creation for the growing numbers of people of working age,
and without significant improvements in the health of Africa’s population, human and economic development
will be limited.
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