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THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
MODEL: ITALY AND KENYA COMPARED
T
HE TOTAL NUMBER of
people living in a country is
called its population. This figure
changes from year to year because
of births and deaths, and because
of movements of people in and
out of the country. There are
always babies being born, but also
people dying. If a country has
more births than deaths over a
period of years, the population
will rise, and this is called natural
increase. However, if there are
more deaths than births, the
population will fall – this is known
as natural decrease (see Figure 1).
An increase in population can also
occur if there are more people
entering a country as immigrants
than those leaving as emigrants.
Over the last 150 years, the
populations of most of the more
economically developed countries
(MEDCs) have gone through a
period of change from a low total
population to a high population,
mainly as a result of natural
increase. This change is called the
demographic transition.
The demographic transition model
(Figure 2) shows how a country’s
total population changes over time
through four distinctive stages,
by John Davidson
Figure 2: The demographic transition model, based on the UK 1700–2000
based on the country’s birth rate
and death rate. The birth rate of a
country is the number of live
births per 1,000 population per
year, and the death rate is the
number of deaths per 1,000
population per year. The four
stages are as follows:
Stage 1: High stationary stage
The birth and death rates are high
and the total population remains
about the same because there are as
many deaths as births.
Stage 2: Early expanding stage
The death rate falls because of
improvements in food supply, and
less disease due to better hygiene and
the use of vaccinations and
medicines, but the birth rate remains
high. The population grows rapidly
due to natural increase.
Figure 1: Natural increase and
natural decrease
276
Stage 3: Late expanding stage
The death rate is low, and the birth
rate falls because as the country
becomes more economically
developed children are no longer
needed to work in fields or look after
Series 14 Autumn issue Unit 276 The Demographic Transition Model: Italy and Kenya Compared © 2002 Nelson Thornes
This page may be photocopied for use within the purchasing institution only.
elderly parents, and the risk of
children dying young is much less. If
children cannot work and are sent to
school, people tend to have smaller
families. The population still rises
because the birth rate is greater than
the death rate, but the rate of growth
will slow down.
Stage 4: Low stationary stage
The birth and death rates are low,
and the population becomes stable,
although there may still be changes in
the overall total due to migration of
people into or out of the country.
Recently, it has been suggested that
the model should have a stage 5,
Natural decrease. In some
MEDCs, the death rate has gone
up because of an increasingly
elderly population, and at the
same time the birth rate has
become very low. In stage 5 the
population would decline due to
natural decrease, unless many
people were allowed to migrate
into the country as a ‘replacement
population’.
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Figure 3: Italy and Kenya
Whilst this model can be used to
look at how a population changes
over time, the demographic
transition model also provides a
useful way to see how the
population changes in different
countries. However, the model was
based on what happened in Europe,
and not all countries will follow
exactly the four stages suggested by
the model. A comparison of Italy
and Kenya shows how the model
can be applied to two countries at
different stages of development (see
Figure 3).
Demographic transition in
Italy
Figure 4 shows the demographic
transition for Italy from 1900 to
2000. During the 20th century, Italy
moved rapidly through the
demographic transition from stage 2
to stage 4 and now has one of the
lowest birth rates in Europe, of
9/1,000. The fertility rate (the
average number of children each
Figure 4: Demographic transition
for Italy, 1900–2000
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woman can expect to have in her
lifetime) is only 1.2 and the country
currently has a natural decrease,
with more deaths than births. The
death rate is low because most
people in Italy have access to
medical care, and hygiene standards
are generally good. With an average
life expectancy of 77 years most
people can expect to live a long and
healthy life (an ageing population).
However, because of the ‘greying’ of
Italy’s population as more people
survive until their eighties and
nineties, the death rate is likely to
increase over the next few years.
This would make Italy a stage 5
country.
Why have birth rates fallen so
low?
The birth rate in Italy fell sharply
between 1970 and 2000. In 1964, 1
million babies were born; in 2000
only 500,000 were born, and in
recent years many women have had
no children at all, or only one or
two. There are many possible
explanations for the fall in the birth
rate (see Figure 5).
Some experts have suggested that
many women are only delaying
having children in Italy while they
are developing careers and
becoming sufficiently well off to
bring up a family. If this is correct,
then the birth rate could go up in
the next two decades. In the
meantime, the fall in the birth rate
has created a number of problems
which Italy will have to sort out
over the next few years. There is an
increasing number of older
* Over the last 50 years, more and
more people in Italy have moved to
towns and cities, where children are
an economic burden rather than an
asset. They cost money to feed,
clothe and educate, and so in urban
areas people tend to have smaller
families. In rural areas children
helped on farms and were a
necessity.
* Italy has industrialised and
developed rapidly over the last 40
years. Women have always worked
hard on farms in rural Italy, but this
work was flexible and allowed time
to look after children. Now, most
women in towns and cities have a
career with fixed working hours. In
cities, it is difficult to combine a
career with bringing up children,
and there are relatively few daycare
or nursery places for babies and
toddlers.
* Since the 1930s, more and more
women have become educated and
go to university. This trend began in
the 1930s when jobs for women
were scarce, and they were
encouraged to become mothers as
part of the national pro-birth policy,
but many chose to develop their
education instead. Now there are
more job opportunities in Italy for
women than men, and studies have
shown that women with a career
may have only one child, or often
none at all.
* In urban areas, many people live in
flats or apartments that are often too
small for large families. Because
people cannot afford to buy larger
properties, this has encouraged
people to have fewer children.
* Traditionally in rural areas,
grandparents often helped with
childcare so that the mothers could
work. Now, many people have
moved to cities and are too far away
for the grandparents to look after
the children.
* The use of modern contraceptives
has become accepted in Italy and
abortion, which was banned in the
1920s, is now legal. Women can
choose to have a small family, or
not to have children at all.
* Infant mortality in 1911 was
151/1,000 meaning that for every
1,000 babies born, 151 would die
before they were a year old, and in
1950 this figure was 70/1,000.
These high rates encouraged
people to have more than one or
two children, especially in rural
areas. Now Italy has one of the
lowest infant mortality rates in
Europe, of 5/1,000, and most
babies will grow up to become
healthy adults, so people have small
families.
Figure 5: Why has Italy’s birth rate
fallen?
Series 14 Autumn issue Unit 276 The Demographic Transition Model: Italy and Kenya Compared © 2002 Nelson Thornes
This page may be photocopied for use within the purchasing institution only.
dependent people and a shortage of
young and middle-aged people to
fill jobs and pay taxes. Overall, the
population is projected to fall from
57 million to 45 million over the
next 50 years. If this happens, three
solutions to the problems of stage 5
have been suggested.
1 Italy should accept up to 200,000
immigrants a year from other parts
of the world to help maintain its
population total and to provide
sufficient workers in industry and
agriculture.
2 Italy should encourage more people
to have children by improving
daycare and nursery education.
3 Italy should raise the retirement age
from 65 to 77 years so that more
people will be in work.
Demographic transition in
Kenya
Figure 6 shows the demographic
transition for Kenya from 1900 to
2000. One hundred years ago
Kenya was at the end of stage 1,
with high birth and death rates. Life
expectancy was low and the death
rate was high because of diseases
which affected all ages, high infant
mortality and little medical support.
Most people were subsistence
farmers, and periodic food shortages
caused by climatic hazards, pests and
diseases also resulted in a high death
rate. Mothers often had eight or
more children but because of the
high infant mortality rate of
200/1,000 the population remained
low and stable. Then Kenya moved
into stage 2 when the death rate fell
for several reasons:
1 Health care programmes Many
children are now immunised against
major diseases, and oral rehydration
therapy (ORT) means that fewer
children die from harmful bacteria in
water.
2 Nutrition advice Children are
growing up healthier due to advice to
mothers on diet and nutrition.
3 Hygiene and water supply More
and more parts of Kenya have access
to safe water supplies.
4 Young population Because a high
percentage of Kenya’s population is
under 35, the death rate is now low.
5 Family planning Kenyan mothers
use family planning to space their
children so that both mothers and
babies are healthier and more likely
to survive pregnancy and birth,
reducing the death rate.
Until the 1990s, Kenya’s birth rate
was high and many women had 6 to
8 children, making it a stage 2
country. In both rural and urban
areas, children were an economic
asset. They could work on the
farms, help with family industries,
help with housework, and look after
their ageing parents and siblings.
Sons are needed to inherit land and
wealth, and high infant mortality
encouraged parents to have several
children to ensure that some
survived. Modern contraception is
not always available or cheap in
some areas, and there is a lot of
suspicion and worries about some
contraceptive methods. Abortion is
illegal in Kenya. There are also a
large number of people in the childbearing age group. However, recent
statistics suggest that Kenya is
moving into stage 3, with a low
death rate and falling birth rate.
Is Kenya a stage 3 country?
Figure 6: Demographic transition
for Kenya, 1900–2000
In Kenya, the birth rate has recently
started to fall, with most women
now having just four or five
Series 14 Autumn issue Unit 276 The Demographic Transition Model: Italy and Kenya Compared © 2002 Nelson Thornes
This page may be photocopied for use within the purchasing institution only.
children. This suggests that Kenya is
now in stage 3. Several reasons may
account for the recent fall in birth
rate:
• Infant mortality has fallen to
70/1,000, so mothers are having
fewer babies.
• Over 33% of women now use
modern contraception, compared
with 7% in 1980.
• Many Kenyans now live in urban
areas where housing shortages cause
problems for large families. Also,
contraception is more easily available
in the cities.
However, reliable figures are not
available for many parts of Kenya
and it is not certain that the country
will move through stage 3. The
population is still growing fast due
to natural increase, and it is
predicted to double in 35 years. This
will increase the need for schools
and for jobs for the growing number
of young people. In rural areas more
people must be fed from the same
land area, and overuse of the land
can result in soil erosion.
Impact of AIDS in Kenya
The recent fall in Kenya’s birth rate,
and the slight rise in the death rate
and infant mortality, may be due
more to the AIDS epidemic, than to
the demographic transition
occurring because the country is
becoming more developed with
people having smaller families by
choice. Estimates suggest that 13%
of Kenya’s population between the
ages of 15 and 49 are HIV positive.
Fear of AIDS has meant that more
Kenyans have started to practise safe
sex techniques, resulting in fewer
pregnancies. Many HIV-positive
women do not want to have
children because of the high risk of
passing on AIDS to their babies, and
women with advanced AIDS may
find it difficult to become pregnant.
Also, sadly, AIDS is affecting people
in the child-bearing age range most,
and is literally killing young people
before they have had children. No
one knows exactly why AIDS has
spread so fast in East Africa, but
Kenya’s population may change
dramatically over the next 30 years
as a result.
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Activities
1 Refer to Figure 3 for this activity.
(a) For Kenya: name the cities A
and B, the ocean C, the mountain
D, lake E, the countries F, G, H
and I, and the line X–Y.
(b) For Italy: name the cities J, K, L
and M, the mountain ranges N and
P, the sea Q, the island R, and the
countries at S and T.
2 (a) Using examples from Kenya
and Italy, explain what is meant by:
• natural increase in population
• natural decrease in population.
(b) Why is it that the total
population of some countries can
still increase, even if they are
undergoing natural decrease?
Demographic data
Kenya
Italy
UK
Population (millions)
Population density (per km2)
Birth rate/1,000
Death rate/1,000
Infant mortality
Fertility rate
Life expectancy
% living in urban areas
% using modern contraception
Adult literacy %
Population per doctor
Gross national income per
person in US $ (adjusted to
reflect local purchasing power)
29.8
51
34
14
74
4.5
48
20
32
22
21970
$1,010
57.8
192
9
10
5.2
1.2
79
90
56
97
207
$22,000
60.0
245
12
11
5.7
1.7
77
90
68
100
300
$22,220
Figure 7: Demographic data for Kenya, Italy and the UK
Age
0–4
5–9
10–14
15–19
20–24
25–29
30–34
35–39
40–44
45–49
50–54
55–59
60–64
65–69
70–74
75–79
80+
3 (a) Select three different
statistical data from Figure 7 that
show differences between the
populations of Kenya, Italy and the
UK. Give reasons for your choice.
(b) Draw a simple graph (e.g. a bar
graph, divided bar or pictograph)
to illustrate how these three
statistics vary between each
country.
(c) Suggest reasons for the
differences between the three
countries shown by your graph.
4 (a) Using Figure 8 as a guide and
the data in Figure 9, draw the
age–sex pyramid for Kenya.
(b) Using both pyramids, describe
and explain the differences
between the two age–sex pyramids
under these three headings:
• Dependant population (age 14
and under)
• Working age population (age 15
to 64)
• Retirement age population (age
65 and over).
(c) Suggest reasons for the
differences you have described.
5 In Kenya, women on average
have 4 or 5 children, whereas in
Italy women on average have only
1 or 2 children. Draw up a
summary table to list reasons why
small families are common in Italy
and larger families are common in
Kenya.
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Male
Female
15
14
14
13
11
8
6
5
3
3
2
2
1
1
1
0
0
15
14
14
13
11
8
6
5
4
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
0
Figure 9: Percentage of males and
females in each age group in Kenya
Year
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Projected population
(millions)
58.0
57.0
55.5
52.8
49.4
45.0
Figure 10: Projected population of
Italy from 2000 to 2050
Figure 8: Age–sex pyramid for Italy
6 Many people in Africa are very
worried about the effects of AIDS
on the population. Describe three
reasons why the AIDS epidemic
may lead to a reduction in the
number of babies being born in
Kenya.
7 (a) Plot the data in Figure 10
onto a simple line graph.
(b) Suggest reasons for the pattern
shown on your graph.
(c) Explain what problems a
declining population may cause for
Italy, and describe three ways in
which such problems might be
solved.
Series 14 Autumn issue Unit 276 The Demographic Transition Model: Italy and Kenya Compared © 2002 Nelson Thornes
This page may be photocopied for use within the purchasing institution only.