Economic History of the US Revolution to Civil War,1776-1860 Lecture #6 Peter Allen Econ 120 First Bank of the U.S., 1791-1811 Successful Stable monetary conditions Prevented banks from over-expanding note issuance & credit no banking crises…but… …Congress terminated it 1811 First major banking crisis straight away War of 1812 (1812-15), War financing 1814-17, banks allowed to suspend specie payments on notes Over-issue (fiat), inflation “Panic of 1819,” depression of 1819-21 Sentiment: “No paper currency, no fractional reserve” Bank Holdings ($ million) Specie Bank notes Reserve Ratio 1811 14.9 42.2 0.35 US Treasury Bonds Reserve Ratio 1815 13.5 79 0.17 1818 20 94.7 15 0.36 ▲ Jan.1811 end of First Bank ▲ Jan.1817 start of Second Bank 1819 25 74.2 Financing, War of 1812 1812 - 1815 No national bank …Treasury Dept. “stuffed” ≈ $80 million of T-bonds to banks Raised approx. $34 million in specie Banks paid the Treasury with notes backed by US debt… …though all still backed by specie i.e. “dilution” of specie convertibility …vast currency over-issue, inflation Inflation, 35% per year 1811-15 “Panic of 1819” Dilution to pay for War… Aug. 1814 - Feb. 1817, banks allowed to suspend specie payments on their notes… … but remain open …de facto fiat currency Precedent for wartime public finance By 1819, public had enough System-wide run on banks Reversal, collapse of money supply Depression of 1819-21 Sentiment: “No paper currency, no fractional reserve” Second Bank of the US, 1816-36 Congress chartered “Second Bank” in 1816 for another 20 years How to restore specie convertibility with huge excess of paper currency over specie?? Options: deflation or devaluation …February 1817, resumption of specie convertibility – chose neither option Economy growing fast; Bank allowed rapid note issuance to continue March 1817, NYSE established “Panic of 1819,” depression of 1819-21 3 years-old, politically the game was lost Populous opposed to the Second Bank Demise of the Second Bank, 1832-36 1823, Nicholas Biddle became President of the Second Bank …saw benefit and tried to save Brought state bank issuance under control …presenting notes for specie regularly Succeeded in regaining control of issue of notes and bank credit Too late politically 1832 Fierce opposition from… West/Southern/agrarian/populist “Restricted” by Pres. Andrew Jackson, 1832 No central bank until Federal Reserve Act, 1913 Immediately after the Second Bank… 300 Price Level 200 150 100 Specie 50 18 44 18 42 18 40 18 38 18 36 18 34 18 32 18 30 18 28 18 26 18 24 0 18 22 money, specie, price index Money 250 18 20 Banks over issue notes, 1835-36… loss of discipline from Second Bank, influx of specie influx from Mexico, 1833-37 ($31 mm → $73 mm.) …note issuance way too fast for the economy (MV = PY) Panic of 1837…bank run banks allowed to suspend specie payments… …but only for 18 months Had to reduce notes People lost all confidence in paper money Money, -15.6%; Prices, -30% “Great Depression of 1837-39” Free banking, 1837-57 Currency Act of 1834…gold became dominant specie Era of “Jacksonian Democrats,” 1828-36 Agrarian populism, manifest destiny, strict construction, laissezfaire Decentralized banking, 1837-57 State, “free banking” No regulation No lender of last resort No suspension of specie convertibility Note issuance backed by state bonds Hard currency, no fractional reserve Fiction First 3 US Financial Crises Phenomenon of modern economies… …industrialization Banks, issue $$ and intermediate saving and investment Borrowing and lending for scale production 1793-1860 crises had a central cause… Fractional reserve banking and leverage Excessive expansion of money, bank notes or loans… …beyond the need of the economy Resulting in panic…”flight to safety”…specie Politically unsettled, two schools of thought Central (national) bank, regulate, let banks suspend specie, “Federalist” State-centered, “free banking,” hard currency, no regulation Jacksonian (Jeffersonian) backing: pure specie v. gov. bonds = fixed v. flexible money Second Bank of the US, 1816-36 “Second Bank” chartered by Congress in 1816 for another 20 years Succeeded in keeping over-issue of notes and bank credit under control Fierce political opposition (“Bank War”) from… West/Southern/agrarian/populist “Restricted” by Pres. Andrew Jackson, 1832 No central bank until Federal Reserve Act, 1913 After the Second Bank… Price Level 200 150 100 Specie 50 18 44 18 42 18 40 18 38 18 36 18 34 18 32 18 30 18 28 18 26 0 18 24 Money 250 18 22 3. 4. 300 money, specie, price index 2. First financial bubble, 1835-36 3 factors: Growth of money supply was too fast for the economy, (MV = PY) Inflows of specie from Mexico, 1833-37 Specie Circular, 1836 Loss of Second Bank May 1837 banks allowed to suspend specie payments People again lost confidence in paper money for awhile Panic of 1837 “Great Depression of 1837-39” 18 20 1. Impact of Calif. Gold Rush Sharp rise in gold supply increased money supply 190 …8.5% p.a., 1849-56 price indices, 1849=100 180 Money Supply Result, economic boom… 170 4.3% p.a. rise of real GDP…but also… 4.4% p.a. rise of inflation Financial speculation, canals, railroads 160 GDP 150 140 130 Commodity Prices 120 110 100 90 1849 1850 1851 1852 1853 1854 1855 1856 1857 1858 1859 Crisis of 1857 First US Financial Crises Financial crises phenomenon of modern economies… …f(industrialization, banking, borrowing/lending, abrupt change of money supply…) 1793-1860 crises, conditions different, but… One basic cause Excessive expansion of money, bank notes or loans… …beyond the need of the economy Resulting in panic, “collapse”… Flight to safety…specie So: Taxes 13%, Borrowing 29% (=.33*87)and Money Creation 58% (=.67*87) Quantity Theory? MV=PQ? Prices rise 20,946% but money 7,143%? Estimated Issuance of Continentals Revenue from Money Creation 25 20 $ millions 15 10 5 0 1774 1775 1776 1777 1778 1779 1780
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