Energy Briefing:
US Petroleum
Products Supplied
Yardeni Research, Inc.
June 14, 2017
Dr. Edward Yardeni
516-972-7683
[email protected]
Mali Quintana
480-664-1333
[email protected]
Please visit our sites at
www.yardeni.com
blog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents
Table Of Contents
Petroleum Imports & Exports
Petroleum Products Supplied
Petroleum Supplied
Crude Oil Production & Imports
Misc.
Large Speculators: Crude Oil
Large Speculators: Gasoline
June 14, 2017 / US Petroleum Products Supplied
3
4-5
6-7
8
9-11
12
13-14
Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
Petroleum Imports & Exports
Figure 1.
16
16
US IMPORTS OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
(million barrels per day, 4-week ma, nsa)
14
14
12
12
6/9
10
10
8
8
Crude Oil & Petroleum Products (10.3)
Crude Oil Including SPR (8.2)
6
4
6
yardeni.com
4
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Source: US Department of Energy and Haver Analytics.
Figure 2.
16
16
US IMPORTS & EXPORTS OF CRUDE OIL & PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
(million barrels per day, 4-week ma, nsa)
14
14
12
12
6/9
10
10
8
8
Crude Oil & Petroleum Products
6
Imports
(10.3)
Net Imports (4.8)
6
4
Exports
(5.4)
4
2
0
2
yardeni.com
92
93
94
0
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Source: US Department of Energy and Haver Analytics.
Page 3 / June 14, 2017 / US Petroleum Products Supplied
Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
Petroleum Products Supplied
Figure 3.
6.0
5.5
6.0
US EXPORTS OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
(million barrels per day, 4-week ma, nsa)
5.5
6/9
5.0
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.0
2.5
4.0
Crude Oil (0.8)
yardeni.com
3.5
4.5
Crude Oil & Petroleum Products (5.4)
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
.5
.5
.0
.0
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Source: US Department of Energy and Haver Analytics.
Figure 4.
22
22
US PETROLEUM PRODUCTS SUPPLIED
(million barrels per day, 52-week ma)
21
21
Total* (20.0)
6/9
20
20
19
19
18
18
17
17
16
yardeni.com
91
92
93
16
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
* Includes motor gasoline, distillate fuel oils, and all other products.
Source: US Department of Energy and Haver Analytics.
Page 4 / June 14, 2017 / US Petroleum Products Supplied
Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
Petroleum Products Supplied
Figure 5.
9.6
9.4
9.6
US PETROLEUM PRODUCTS: GASOLINE SUPPLIED
(million barrels per day, 52-week ma)
9.4
6/9
9.2
9.2
9.0
9.0
Gasoline (9.2)
8.8
8.8
8.6
8.6
8.4
8.4
8.2
8.2
8.0
8.0
7.8
7.8
7.6
7.6
7.4
7.4
7.2
7.0
7.2
yardeni.com
91
92
93
7.0
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Source: US Department of Energy and Haver Analytics.
Figure 6.
4.6
4.6
US PETROLEUM PRODUCTS: DISTILLATE SUPPLIED
(million barrels per day, 52-week ma)
4.4
4.4
4.2
4.2
Distillate (3.9)
4.0
4.0
6/9
3.8
3.8
3.6
3.6
3.4
3.4
3.2
3.2
3.0
3.0
2.8
yardeni.com
91
92
93
2.8
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Source: US Department of Energy and Haver Analytics.
Page 5 / June 14, 2017 / US Petroleum Products Supplied
Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
Petroleum Supplied
Figure 7.
8.0
8.0
US PETROLEUM PRODUCTS SUPPLIED
(million barrels per day, 52-week ma)
7.5
7.5
Total Less
Gasoline &
Distillates (6.8)
7.0
7.0
6/9
6.5
6.0
6.5
yardeni.com
91
92
93
6.0
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Source: US Department of Energy and Haver Analytics.
Figure 8.
21.5
US PETROLEUM PRODUCTS SUPPLIED
Values shown are prior years’ weeks
comparable to latest year’s week 06/09/17
(million barrels per day, 4-week moving average, sa)
2017 (20.1)
2016 (20.3)
2015 (19.7)
2014 (18.8)
2013 (18.5)
21.0
20.5
21.5
21.0
20.5
20.0
20.0
19.5
19.5
19.0
19.0
18.5
18.5
yardeni.com
18.0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
18.0
Dec
2017
Source: US Department of Energy and Haver Analytics.
Page 6 / June 14, 2017 / US Petroleum Products Supplied
Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
Petroleum Supplied
Figure 9.
10.6
10.4
US PETROLEUM PRODUCTS: GASOLINE SUPPLIED
Values shown are prior years’ weeks
comparable to latest year’s week 06/09/17
(million barrels per day, 4-week moving average, sa)
2017 (9.5)
2016 (9.6)
2015 (9.4)
2014 (9.1)
2013 (8.8)
10.2
10.0
9.8
10.6
10.4
10.2
10.0
9.8
9.6
9.6
9.4
9.4
9.2
9.2
9.0
9.0
8.8
8.8
8.6
8.6
8.4
8.4
8.2
8.2
yardeni.com
8.0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
8.0
Dec
2017
Source: US Department of Energy and Haver Analytics.
Figure 10.
4.4
4.3
US PETROLEUM PRODUCTS: DISTILLATE SUPPLIED
Values shown are prior years’ weeks
comparable to latest year’s week 06/09/17
(million barrels per day, 4-week moving average, sa)
2017 (4.0)
2016 (4.0)
2015 (3.9)
2014 (4.0)
2013 (4.0)
4.2
4.1
4.4
4.3
4.2
4.1
4.0
4.0
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.7
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.3
3.3
yardeni.com
3.2
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
3.2
Dec
2017
Source: US Department of Energy and Haver Analytics.
Page 7 / June 14, 2017 / US Petroleum Products Supplied
Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
Crude Oil Production & Imports
Figure 11.
11.2
11.0
10.8
10.6
10.4
10.2
10.0
9.8
9.6
9.4
9.2
9.0
8.8
8.6
8.4
8.2
8.0
7.8
7.6
7.4
7.2
7.0
6.8
6.6
US CRUDE OIL FIELD PRODUCTION
Values shown are prior years’ weeks
comparable to latest year’s week 06/09/17
(million barrels per day, 4-week moving average, sa)
2013 (7.2)
2014 (8.4)
2015 (9.4)
2016 (8.7)
2017 (9.2)
yardeni.com
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
11.2
11.0
10.8
10.6
10.4
10.2
10.0
9.8
9.6
9.4
9.2
9.0
8.8
8.6
8.4
8.2
8.0
7.8
7.6
7.4
7.2
7.0
6.8
6.6
Dec
2017
Source: US Department of Energy and Haver Analytics.
Figure 12.
10.0
9.8
US CRUDE OIL IMPORTS INCLUDING SPR
Values shown are prior years’ weeks
comparable to latest year’s week 06/09/17
(million barrels per day, 4-week moving average, sa)
9.6
9.2
9.0
9.8
9.6
2017 (8.3)
2016 (7.8)
2015 (7.1)
2014 (7.3)
2013 (7.8)
9.4
10.0
9.4
9.2
9.0
8.8
8.8
8.6
8.6
8.4
8.4
8.2
8.2
8.0
8.0
7.8
7.8
7.6
7.6
7.4
7.4
7.2
7.2
7.0
7.0
6.8
6.6
6.8
yardeni.com
Jan
6.6
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2017
Source: US Department of Energy and Haver Analytics.
Page 8 / June 14, 2017 / US Petroleum Products Supplied
Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
Misc.
Figure 13.
40000
1400
INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS
(thousand, sa, 4-week ma)
30000
1200
Texas
1000
North
Dakota
800
6/3
20000
600
400
6/3
10000
30000
200
50000
40000
20000
Ohio
Pennsylvania
30000
10000
6/3
20000
6/3
0
yardeni.com
10000
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure 14.
120
120
INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS: MAJOR OIL-PRODUCING STATES
(thousand, sa, 4-week ma)
100
100
80
80
Total*
60
60
40
20
40
6/3
yardeni.com
20
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
* Includes Texas, North Dakota, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Page 9 / June 14, 2017 / US Petroleum Products Supplied
Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
Misc.
Figure 15.
700
650
700
US CRUDE OIL & PETROLEUM PRODUCTS EXPORTS & IMPORTS
(billion dollars, saar)
650
600
600
550
550
500
500
450
450
Imports
400
400
Exports
350
350
300
300
250
250
200
200
150
150
Apr
100
100
50
50
yardeni.com
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
0
2018
Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
Figure 16.
500
500
US IMPORTS MINUS EXPORTS OF CRUDE OIL & PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
(billion dollars, 12-month sum)
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
Apr
0
yardeni.com
2000
2001
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
Page 10 / June 14, 2017 / US Petroleum Products Supplied
Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
Misc.
Figure 17.
55
50
55
MINING, OIL FIELD & GAS MACHINERY
(billion dollars, saar)
50
45
45
40
40
35
35
30
30
Orders
Shipments
25
25
20
20
15
15
Apr
10
10
5
0
5
yardeni.com
00
01
0
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Source: Bureau of the Census.
Figure 18.
1800
2.6
NATURAL GAS: ACTIVE US RIG COUNT AND PRODUCTION
1600
Rig Count: Gas
(units)
1400
2.4
Mar
Natural Gas Production
(trillion cubic feet, 12-month average)
1200
2.2
1000
2.0
800
600
1.8
400
1.6
200
0
6/9
yardeni.com
91
92
93
1.4
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Source: Baker Hughes Inc. and Oil Gas Journal.
Page 11 / June 14, 2017 / US Petroleum Products Supplied
Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
Large Speculators: Crude Oil
Figure 19.
1.0
1.0
PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT: NATURAL RESOURCES INDUSTRIES
(millions, sa)
.9
.9
.8
.8
May
.7
.6
yardeni.com
2009
.7
.6
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure 20.
600
550
600
WTI CRUDE OIL FUTURES CONTRACTS HELD BY LARGE SPECULATORS
(contracts of million barrels)
550
500
500
450
450
400
6/6
400
350
350
300
300
250
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
0
-50
-100
-50
yardeni.com
2009
-100
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: Commodity Futures Trading Commission and US Department of Energy.
Page 12 / June 14, 2017 / US Petroleum Products Supplied
Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
Large Speculators: Gasoline
Figure 21.
150
150
WTI CRUDE OIL FUTURES CONTRACTS HELD BY LARGE SPECULATORS
(as a percent of US crude oil inventories*)
130
130
110
110
90
90
6/9
70
70
50
50
30
30
10
10
-10
-10
-30
yardeni.com
2009
-30
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
* Excluding US Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Source: Commodity Futures Trading Commission and US Department of Energy.
Figure 22.
110000
100000
110000
GASOLINE FUTURES CONTRACTS HELD BY LARGE SPECULATORS
(contracts of 42,000 US gallons)
100000
90000
90000
80000
80000
70000
70000
6/6
50000
yardeni.com
60000
60000
50000
40000
40000
30000
30000
20000
20000
10000
10000
0
0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: Commodity Futures Trading Commission and US Department of Energy.
Page 13 / June 14, 2017 / US Petroleum Products Supplied
Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
Large Speculators: Gasoline
Figure 23.
50
50
GASOLINE FUTURES CONTRACTS HELD BY LARGE SPECULATORS
(as a percent of US gasoline inventories)
40
30
30
20
yardeni.com
40
6/9
10
20
10
0
0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: Commodity Futures Trading Commission and US Department of Energy.
Page 14 / June 14, 2017 / US Petroleum Products Supplied
Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
Copyright (c) Yardeni Research, Inc. 2017. All rights reserved. The information
contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not
necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or
warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or
correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other
information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports posted on
http://blog.yardeni.com
www.yardeni.com, blog.yardeni.com,
and YRI’s Apps for iPads and iPhones are issued
without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs
of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell
any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide
to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but
should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company’s stock.
Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as
recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security--including mutual funds, futures
contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments.
The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed on any Yardeni Research, Inc.
product, service, report, email or website are proprietary to Yardeni Research, Inc. and
constitute valuable intellectual property. No material from any part of www.yardeni.com,
http://blog.yardeni.com
blog.yardeni.com,
and YRI’s Apps for iPads and iPhones may be downloaded, transmitted,
broadcast, transferred, assigned, reproduced or in any other way used or otherwise
disseminated in any form to any person or entity, without the explicit written consent of
Yardeni Research, Inc. All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from Yardeni
Research, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary
and intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. Yardeni
Research, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property,
including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/or
to track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means,
now known or hereafter devised. Yardeni Research, Inc. reserves the right, without further
notice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil
remedies for the violation of its rights.
The recipient should check any email and any attachments for the presence of viruses.
Yardeni Research, Inc. accepts no liability for any damage caused by any virus transmitted
by this company’s emails, website, blog and Apps. Additional information available on
request.
[email protected]