RUSSIA
INDUSTRIAL MARKET
Year-End Review 2016
KEY MARKET INDICATORS
2015
2016
20.5
21.9
1.5
1.4
Completions in regional market (excl. Moscow and St. Petersburg), thousand sq m
439
469
Take-up (total in Russia), million sq m
1.84
1.66
249.7
273.6
3.8
8.2
3,300
3,500
41,000
38,000
Total stock, million sq m
Completions (total in Russia), million sq m
Take-up in the regional market (excl. Moscow and St. Petersburg), thousand sq m
Vacancy rate in the regional market (excl. Moscow and St. Petersburg), %
Average asking rental price in the regional market, RUB/sq m/year*
Average asking sale price in the regional market, RUB/sq m**
* Here and below rental rates are given excluding VAT, OPEX and utilities.
** Here and below the sale price is given for Class A property excluding VAT, for end-user.
Source: Colliers International
Supply
Total stock distribution in 2016*
2%
2%
2%
At the end of 2016, the total stock of quality warehouse space
in the Russian industrial market reached 21.9 million sq m of
quality space. The completion volume in 2016 was 1,378,000 sq m,
from which 720,000 sq m of new warehouse space was built
in the Moscow region, 189,000 sq m in St. Petersburg
and 469,000 sq m in other regions of Russia.
The largest objects completed in the built-to-suit format in 2016
were for companies such as X5 Retail Group, Sportmaster,
Magnit, Verny and etc.
The significant lack of speculative construction is connected
with the increasing downtime risk of completed warehouses
being without tenants for a long period. However, the majority of developers own a portfolio of land plots suitable for the
construction of distribution centres and warehouses in the
built-to-suit format.
Moscow
St. Petersburg
Yekaterinburg
5%
Novosibirsk
Kazan
64%
14%
Nizhniy Novgorod
Rostov-on-Don
Samara
Other regions
Source: Colliers International
* Calculation based on the data of million-plus cities
Completions dynamics in Russia
2,000
1,800
1,600
thousand sq m
83%
5%
4%
The largest new construction volume in 2016 (excluding
Moscow and St. Petersburg) was observed in Yekaterinburg (129,877 sq m), Novosibirsk (65,418 sq m), Krasnodar
and Vladivostok.
In 2016, 83% of industrial
property in the regions of Russia
were completed in the
built-to-suit format
2%
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
2009
2010
2011
Moscow
St. Petersburg
Source: Colliers International
2012
2013
Regions
2014
2015
Research & Forecast Report | 2017 | Russia | Colliers International
2016
1
Demand
Major lease and sale transactions in 2016
The total take-up in the regional markets (excluding St. Petersburg)
in 2016 was 274,000 sq m, which is slightly higher than in 2015.
CITY
COMPANY
AREA, SQ M
PROPERTY
Confidential
36,320*
Confidential
Auchan
25,360
Samaratransavto
Ufa
X5 Retail Group
24,000
Sigma
Orel
X5 Retail Group
15,430
RLS
Kazan
Samara
Take-up distribution in Russia
Yekaterinburg
STS Logistics
14,280
Logopark Pyshma
1,400
Yekaterinburg
X5 Retail Group
13,690*
PNK-Kosulino
1,200
* Purchase transaction
Source: Colliers International
1,000
800
Market balance
2013
2014
2015
2016
Regions
The average requested rental rate
for Class A industrial property
in the regions of Russia in 2016
was RUB3,400–3,700/sq m/year
63% of demand in the regions
of Russia in 2016 was created
by the retailers
Take-up distribution by tenant type in 2016*
4%
31.6%
30%
25%
18.7% 23.0%
20%
15%
5%
Retail companies
Logistics companies
Manufacturing companies
63%
Distribution companies
Other
0%
12.1%
10.8%
10%
9%
17%
35%
6.8%
6.9%
4.4%
3.5%
2015
2016
Source: Colliers International
* Excluding Moscow region
Source: Colliers International
2
6.5%
9.1%
Moscow
7%
Regional vacancy rate
Yekaterinburg
The share of built-to-suit transactions in 2016 in Russian regions
(excluding St. Petersburg) was 38% which is 4% lower than
the same figure in 2015.
Average asking sale price for Class A warehouses is in range
between RUB35,000-40,000 sq m.
St. Petersburg
One of the largest transaction in retail sector was the lease by
X5 Retail Group of 24,000 sq m in the Sigma logistics complex
in Ufa. Logistics operators were in second place, which created
17% of demand. The majority of transactions in this sector were
closed in St. Petersburg, however, the largest transaction was
closed in the Pyshma logistics complex in Yekaterinburg by STS
Logistics, which leased over 14,000 sq m.
Research & Forecast Report | 2017 | Russia | Colliers International
6.0%
6.9%
7.1%
5.3%
5.4%
6.9%
8.0%
3.8%
3.8%
Chelyabinsk
2012
Samara
2011
Kazan
2010
Moscow
St. Petersburg
Source: Colliers International
Rostov-on-Don
0
By the 2016 year-end the average vacancy rate in the regions of
Russia was 8.2% or 521,000 sq m. The highest vacancy rate on
the regional market was in Chelyabinsk — 23%. The reason for
this is speculative warehouse complex Yuzhnouralskiy completed in 2015 and being filled in with the tenants at a slow pace.
Nizhniy Novgorod
400
200
Novosibirsk
600
Krasnodar
thousand sq m
The largest volume of closed transactions was observed in Kazan,
where 62,000 sq m of quality space were leased and sold,
in Yekaterinburg (55,000 sq m were leased and sold).
Trends and forecast
Total stock and new construction forecast
Companies in this segment are the main customers for non-standard buildings with different temperature zones for the storage
of frozen foods such as dairy foods and vegetables, which can
be completed in the built-to-suit format.
We observe that in 2017 the retail segment will continue
to dominate in the demand structure, rent and purchase
of quality industrial space in the regions of Russia.
400
21.9
400
200
0
Yekaterinburg
Novosibirsk
New construction, 2017
Source: Colliers International
CITY
Kazan
Nizhniy
Novgorod
Rostovon-Don
Samara
Krasnodar
Total stock, 2016
PROPERTY
AREA, SQ M
Gloria Jeans warehouse
50,000
Industrial park Pro-Business-Park,
DC Sportmaster, Phase I
49,000
Krasnodar
Romex Kuban, X5 Retail Group warehouse
47,020
Vladivostok
Aviapolis Yankovskiy, Phase IV
28,500
Industrial park Pro-Business-Park,
DC Verny
21,000
Novosibirsk
Yekaterinburg
It is important to note, that over 65% of total completions in 2017
will be in the built-to-suit format. Due to this, there will not be significant changes in the structure of supply. The average requested
rental rate for Class A warehouse space in the regions of Russia
will range between RUB3,500–4,000/sq m/year.
The total quality
warehouse stock
in Russia in 2016
million
sq m
800
600
Major industrial complexes, completed in 2016
400,000 sq m of
warehouse space will
be completed in 2017
thousand
sq m
1, 000
thousand sq m
The highest demand in 2016 was created by retail chains such
as X5 Retail Group, Auchan, Magnit. These companies are not
only expanding in the largest cities of Russia but also in cities
with the a population from 250,000 to 500,000 people.
Yekaterinburg
Major warehouse complexes
scheduled for completion in 2017
CITY
PROPERTY
AREA, SQ M
DC Magnit
39,580
Novosibirsk
Warehouse complex Tolmachevskiy
34,000
Vladivostok
Aviapolis Yankovskiy, Phase V
28,500
Orenburg
Source: Colliers International
Russia.
Total stock in thousand sq m, 2016
2,778
St. Petersburg
12,742
Moscow
407
Nizhniy
Novgorod
246
481
Rostov-on-Don
Krasnodar
356
343
Kazan
Samara
1,058
294
Yekaterinburg
Chelyabinsk
894
108
Novosibirsk
Vladivostok
Source: Colliers International
Research & Forecast Report | 2017 | Russia | Colliers International
3
554 offices in
66 countries on
6 continents
USA: 153
Canada: 34
Latin America: 24
Asia Pacific: 231
EMEA: 112
Nikolay Kazanskiy
Managing Partner
[email protected]
Vladimir Sergunin
Partner
[email protected]
Stanislav Bibik
Partner
[email protected]
Anna Nikandrova
Partner
[email protected]
Eleonora Bogdanova
Regional Director, Warehouse & Industrial Department
[email protected]
Amel Djerroudi
Executive Director, Project Management & Building Consultancy Department
[email protected]
Vera Zimenkova
Regional Director, Corporate Solutions & Office Agency Departments
[email protected]
Andrey Kosarev
Managing Director, St. Petersburg
[email protected]
Vladislav Nikolaev
Regional Director, Strategic Consulting Department
[email protected]
$2.5
billion in
annual revenue
185.8
Dmitry Romanov
Regional Director, Valuation Department
[email protected]
Kermen Mastiev
Head of Division, Sales & Acquisitions Office Department
[email protected]
Francois Nonnenmacher
Director, Occupier Representation
[email protected]
Ekaterina Podlesnykh
Head of Street Retail Group
[email protected]
million sq m
under management
Ekaterina Fonareva
Director, Residential Department, Moscow
[email protected]
16,000
Olga Bakulina
Regional Director, Marketing & PR Department
[email protected]
professionals
and staff
Colliers International Russia
10 Presnenskaya Embankment
BC Naberezhnaya Tower, block C, 52 floor
123112 Moscow, Russia
+7 495 258 51 51
3 Volynsky Lane
BC Northern Capital
191186 St. Petersburg, Russia
+7 812 718 36 18
Elizaveta Conway
Director, Residential Department, St. Petersburg
[email protected]
Veronika Lezhneva
Director, Research Department
[email protected]
Colliers International Group Inc. (NASDAQ and TSX: CIGI) is an industry leading global
real estate services company with more than 16,000 skilled professionals operating in 66
countries. Colliers International opened their office in Russia in 1994. Today, the offices in
Moscow and St. Petersburg have more than 250 employees. Colliers professionals provide
a full range of services to real estate occupiers, owners and investors worldwide. Services
include strategic advice and execution for property sales, leasing and finance; global
corporate solutions; property, facility and project management; workplace solutions; appraisal, valuation; customized research; and thought leadership consulting.
Colliers professionals provide a comprehensive range of professional services for developers:
a full range of exclusive and co-exclusive professional consulting services for residential
real estate projects from sales/purchases of land plots for residential construction to the
development of sales concepts, brokerage and marketing.
Colliers has been ranked among the top 100 outsourcing firms by the International
Association of Outsourcing Professionals’ Global Outsourcing for 11 consecutive years, more
than any other real estate services firm.
Colliers International in Russia is a member of the Guild of Property Managers and Developers
(GUD), the Russian Council of Green Building and the Russian Council of Shopping Centres
(RCSC), as well as the Russian Managers Association.
www.colliers.ru
www.colliersdom.com
Copyright © 2017 Colliers International
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable
effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any
inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the
material contained in this report.
4
Research & Forecast Report | 2017 | Russia | Colliers International