Spring 2017 Analytical Consulting Lab: DECS 915
Department of Managerial Economics and Decision Sciences
Kellogg School of Management • Northwestern University
Professor: Russell Walker
Analytical Consulting Lab
Candidate Projects
Spring 2017
Welcome the Analytical Consulting Lab!
In the following pages, you will find candidate projects from sponsoring companies under the
Analytical Consulting Lab (DECS 915) for Spring 2017.
The projects listed include working with actual company data, developing meaningful analytical
models for managerial decision-making, and presenting results and recommendations to company
executives. Most projects will require some level of Non-Disclosure Agreement (NDA) with the
sponsoring company.
A maximum of 12 projects (across two separate sections of DECS 915), each with up to 4
members per team will be selected from the applications of teams. The following list
includes more than 12 projects, allowing teams to select their most desired projects. No
more than 12 projects will be selected, however. Teams should provide information on why
they desire the selected projects.
Multiple projects with Menus of Change, Candid Wines, Qantas, and STATS LLC are
available this term, and each is potentially willing to sponsor multiple projects. Please
specify the specific projects you would like in your application.
More information about the class can be found at its website:
http://kellogg.northwestern.edu/faculty/walker/htm/acl/
Please feel free to contact me at
847 467 2148 or [email protected]
with any questions and interest
Thanks for your interest.
Russell Walker, Ph.D.
Clinical Associate Professor
Kellogg School of Management
Northwestern University
Spring 2017 Analytical Consulting Lab: DECS 915
Department of Managerial Economics and Decision Sciences
Kellogg School of Management • Northwestern University
Professor: Russell Walker
YUM! Brands (NYSE: YUM) –
TACO BELL ANALYSIS
ANALYTICS PROJECT –
OPERATIONS DEPARTMENT
www.tacobell.com
TACO BELL: KEY METRICS ANALYSIS AND TOOL CREATION
YUM! Brands & Taco Bell Background
Yum! Brands, Inc., based in Louisville, Kentucky, has nearly 43,000 restaurants in 135 countries
and territories and is one of the Aon Hewitt Top Companies for Leaders in North America. The
Company’s restaurant brands – KFC, Pizza Hut and Taco Bell – are the global leaders of the
chicken, pizza and Mexican-style food categories. Worldwide, the Yum! Brands system opens
over six new restaurants per day on average, making it a leader in global retail development.
Taco Bell is the nation’s leading Mexican-inspired quick service restaurant (QSR) brand. Based
in Irvine, CA, we serve made-to-order and customizable tacos and burritos, among other
craveable choices, and are the first QSR restaurant to offer American Vegetarian Association
(AVA)-certified menu items. Taco Bell and our more than 350 franchise organizations operate
nearly 6,500 restaurants across the United States that proudly serve about 40 million customers
every week.
Project Description
Thoroughly capturing, monitoring, and understanding the customer experience is the key to
making targeted and successful adjustments to operations processes and procedures. Similarly,
communicating trends consistently, both positive and negative, allows our corporate team to
equip our operating partners (i.e. Taco Bell stores and leadership nationwide) with key
information for business optimization.
This project involves the analysis of many key operating metrics and data assets such as drivethru speed, customer satisfaction, and other customer perceptions (e.g. accuracy, friendliness,
cleanliness, etc). This project also involves the creation of a tool that aggregates all analysis in
one place for the creation of reporting documents. An NDA will be required and the project ends
with the transfer of all created documents and files over to Taco Bell.
Taco Bell Contact & Info
Will Tompkins is a Kellogg alum (’15) and has previously worked with Professor Walker for GIM
LATAM (’14)
Spring 2017 Analytical Consulting Lab: DECS 915
Department of Managerial Economics and Decision Sciences
Kellogg School of Management • Northwestern University
Professor: Russell Walker
NFL Network
www.NFL.com
Position Draft Analysis
In recent years, the NFL has moved to a league that highly favors passing offenses over
running offenses. Accordingly, QBs and WRs are highly valued. On the defensive side,
the importance to control and limit the opponent’s passing attack has never been greater.
This has resulted in a higher premium being placed on pass rushers. Historically, pass
rushers have been evaluated based on the number of sacks and to some extend the
number of QB hurries. However, sacks are typically low in count, even for star pass
rushers, and QB hurries are subject to situational realities. A QB hurry on third down
might be more helpful than one on first down, for instance. It is also expected that pass
rushers might have more success based on the nature of the opponent and the success of
pass rushers might be seen in secondary performance. Such nuisances are not currently
captured in evaluating the performance of pass rushers and are further missed in the draft.
The 2017 Draft appears shallow in QB, yet many teams are looking for QBs. Broadly, the
team will evaluate strategies for assessing value of QB and other positions in the Draft.
In this study, the team is challenged with develop novel metrics to better measure the
absolute and relative performance positions. Focusing on the situational realities of the
game will also be required.
The team will work with Cynthia Frelund, NFL Network Predictive Analytics Analyst.
Cynthia is a Kellogg alumna and an expert in sports analytics.
Spring 2017 Analytical Consulting Lab: DECS 915
Department of Managerial Economics and Decision Sciences
Kellogg School of Management • Northwestern University
Professor: Russell Walker
Candid Wines
www.CandidWines.com
Organic Wine Sales Analysis & More
About Candid Wines
Candid Wines is an importer and distributor of organic, biodynamic and small production
wines in Chicago, Illinois. Candid gets to know all of its winemakers extremely well, and
serves as the face of many brands that are too small for DTC marketing campaigns.
Candid Wines are sold to restaurants, grocery, and wine shops all across Chicago,
including spots like Girl & the Goat, Alinea, Farmhouse, and Whole Foods. After more
than a decade in business, Candid has a strong brand and relationship base within the
Chicago food scene, and is aiming to double in size over the next two years. ACL
projects with Candid present an opportunity have significant and lasting impact on a fastgrowing business.
About the project environment
Kellogg and ACL alum Gillian Casten, Candid's Director of Operations, will lead the
project. Students will get the chance to visit the warehouse, learn about the wine scene in
Chicago, and taste some of Candid's offerings. This is a perfect project for those
interested in learning about the challenges and excitement of running a small, highgrowth company and particularly interesting to students who love wine.
There are multiple projects available from Candid Wines.
_________________________________________________________
Drilling down to true product cost
Candid Wines carries hundreds of active SKUs in its portfolio. Direct margin is easy to calculate,
but sourcing and shipping costs vary significantly between producers, based on location,
sparkling/still import taxes, and holding costs associated with lumpy ordering requirements. In
this project, students will build a comprehensive model - that can be sustainably maintained with cost inputs and true all-in margin outputs per SKU. Students will then use this information to
make recommendations that inform future business decisions (sales team incentives, pricing
changes, new SKU "litmus tests", etc.) [Note to Russell: group members in this project could use
the FEW/Portland Winery model as inspiration]
Spring 2017 Analytical Consulting Lab: DECS 915
Department of Managerial Economics and Decision Sciences
Kellogg School of Management • Northwestern University
Professor: Russell Walker
Competitive analysis
Candid is one of 100 active licensed distributors in Chicago, of which 5 are focused on organic,
sustainably farmed wines. A heavy research project, students should source and present
information on competitor sizes, portfolios (available on sevenfifty.com), business practices and
presence across Chicago. Students will then compare these businesses to Candid and present
recommendations and analysis on gaps of opportunity, potential threats, and adoptable
business structures and practices.
Valuation and future exit strategy
This project would be ideal for a group of students looking to understand the intricacies and
challenges of valuing a small, privately held business. Students will be given detailed financial
history, as well as access to Candid partners for questions on future changes to the business.
Using a combination of public and private information, students will come up with a valuation
range and present it to Candid partners. For the second portion of the project, students will be
asked to consider all possible future exit strategies, and present a list of recommendations for
actions/initiatives that can be taken today to maximize the future value of the company,
including a detailed look at financing options and ideal debt levels. A project intended to have
a 5 year time horizon (at the earliest) with a focus on short to medium term projects that might
yield returns. [Request to Russell: group members who are specifically focused on finance/VC]
Keg and can market sizing
Wine is popping up in Chicago in new and different formats. Restaurants have been increasingly
installing wine taps to serve kegged wine, and you may have noticed cans of wine showing up at
your local grocery store. For this project, students will be asked to size the markets for these two
formats, as well as provide recommendations on which wine types (varietals, price points) would
do best. While few of Candid's producers currently offer these formats, Candid has a direct line
to these winemakers and with convincing market research could suggest to producers that these
wines be offered in kegs or cans to get ahead of the trend.
Gillian Casten is an ACL alumna!
Spring 2017 Analytical Consulting Lab: DECS 915
Department of Managerial Economics and Decision Sciences
Kellogg School of Management • Northwestern University
Professor: Russell Walker
THE E15 GROUP- Team Sales Analysis
ANALYTICS PROJECT
www.E15.com
THE E15 GROUP: TEAM STORE ANALYSIS
E15 Background
E15 is a next-generation analytics and emerging technology company that brings unmatched
industry intelligence and cutting edge analytics to sports, entertainment, hospitality and retail
industries to help companies make forward-looking decisions to benefit their business, fans and
customers.
Our parent company, Levy Restaurants, saw firsthand the incredible appetite for data and
analytics support from its partners. Teams began coming to us for needs outside of food and
beverage. E15 was a natural next step in expanding our capabilities to support these industries
against an unmet need.
Project Description
As sports teams continue to raise concerns over line lengths (to enter the building, at concession
stands, for bathrooms, etc.), they have come to us (Levy and E15) as the innovator in the industry
to understand the impact and generate solutions. The purpose of this project is to identify how
lines influence key metrics such as conversion, basket size, basket mix, per cap, and fan
sentiment. E15 will partner with a sports team in the execution of this project.
E15 Contacts
Sandeep Satish is an alum of ACL!
E15 is also an alumni firm of the ACL!
Spring 2017 Analytical Consulting Lab: DECS 915
Department of Managerial Economics and Decision Sciences
Kellogg School of Management • Northwestern University
Professor: Russell Walker
Block Six Analytics
www.BlockSixAnalytics.Com
Situation
Block Six Analytics is a sports sponsorship technology and analytics company whose
clients include Gatorade, Philadelphia 76ers, Cleveland Browns, and Comcast SportsNet.
We have developed two new products called Media Analysis Platform and Social
Sentiment Analysis Platform. Our Media Analysis Platform determines the value of
logos, objects, and people as they appear on screen for television broadcasts within 24
hours. Our Social Sentiment Analysis Platform evaluates the value of conversation in
different social channels in real-time.
Project Opportunity
For these service offerings, we need a team to:
Enhance product development and speed-to-market with research and analysis.
Refine the pricing strategy. This includes doing competitive research.
Determine the target market and best way to reach new customers.
Create future revenue projections and determine how this impacts our valuation for Series
A capital raise.
Block Six Analytics is an alumni firm of the ACL!
Spring 2017 Analytical Consulting Lab: DECS 915
Department of Managerial Economics and Decision Sciences
Kellogg School of Management • Northwestern University
Professor: Russell Walker
STATS LLC
www.STATS.Com
About STATS:
STATS was founded in 1981 and has grown to become the world’s leading sports technology,
data and content company with operations and sports coverage on every continent (except
Antarctica).
We provide next-generation sports technology, data and content delivered to meet the evolving
needs of the Media, Broadcast, Leagues & Teams, Fantasy providers and players as well as major
B2B and B2C brands. Our focus on driving innovation organically and inorganically means our
customers are always at the forefront of end-user engagement and loyally using STATS’ products
in a variety of contexts.
STATS offers unrivaled Associated Press editorial content and maintains relationships with many
major sports leagues across the globe.
About SportVU:
STATS’ SportVU® product utilizes a six-camera system installed in basketball arenas to track
the real-time positions of players and the ball 25 times per second. Utilizing this tracking data,
STATS is able to create a wealth of innovative statistics based on speed, distance, player
separation and ball possession.
The combination of player and ball tracking and STATS’ rich historical information database
provides the most comprehensive and sophisticated basketball data stream available.
Project Description:
Our SportVU System provides amazing tracking data to NBA teams to help them with their
coaching, scouting and player personnel decisions. It’s the most advanced data set in American
Sports.
Internally, we have developed a NBA player rating system that incorporates the statistics that
come from the tracking data (e.g. drives, ball screens, isolations…etc) with the traditional box
score statistics to create what we believe to be the most comprehensive rating system. The rating
system also rates players in various categories like shooting, rebounding, passing and defense.
The work for this project is to use the data from the player rating system to look for trends in
team success based on lineups.
Key Questions:
• Is there a cluster analysis that can describe types of lineups used by teams?
o For example, perhaps teams frequently use lineups that have 2 players who rate
well in shooting, 2 strong rebounders and 1 defender.
o The goal is to figure out what arrangement of players is used most often based on
how the players rate in our ratings categories
Spring 2017 Analytical Consulting Lab: DECS 915
Department of Managerial Economics and Decision Sciences
Kellogg School of Management • Northwestern University
Professor: Russell Walker
•
•
Are there trends in lineups that lead to team success in terms of point differential and / or
winning and losing?
o In other words, which lineup types / clusters are most effective?
o Are there differences in what succeeds from team to team?
If time permits, look deeper at player interactions. If we look at superstar players, do
they perform better with lineups containing specific types of teammates?
STATS LLC has unique data. Few if any people have explored these analytical relationships.
There is an opportunity to undertake up to two projects with STATS LLC.
STATS LLC is an alumni firm of the ACL!
Spring 2017 Analytical Consulting Lab: DECS 915
Department of Managerial Economics and Decision Sciences
Kellogg School of Management • Northwestern University
Professor: Russell Walker
The Qantas Group
Qantas.com
Qantas Airways is the national carrier of Australia. The below projects are
sponsored by the Head of Strategy, Reed, a Kellogg alumnus.
PROJECT #1
Topic: Assessing the maximum price premium that Qantas can sustain relative to its full
service carrier competition
Objective:
·
Determine via structured test and learn cycles revenue maximising price
premiums at key tariff price points (by market, O&D, groups of markets, etc.)
Activities:
·
Review academic research on any prior work in this domain
·
Work with the Shorthaul Pricing and Inventory Management teams to structure
test and learn cycles that will generate sufficient data to input into analysis of the stated
problem
Consider how best to mitigate noise in the market that can confound this type of analysis
Consider competitor pricing action, seasonality as well as complications in using current
and historical data given capacity variations
·
Select appropriate analytical approach(es) to analyse the data and apply these to
the stated problem
·
Recommend premiums to be applied and state the revenue upside vs. base case
given current market position
·
Identify and document any shortcomings of the analysis and potential mitigations
-------------PROJECT #2
Topic: Assessing the relationship between the key drivers of Qantas revenue and cost
performance
Objective:
·
Determine the level of influence and interrelation of the most significant drivers of
Qantas revenue performance (e.g. capacity, network, product, marketing, pricing, etc.)
and cost performance (e.g. capacity, fleet deployment & utilisation, workforce efficiency,
product specs, etc.)
Spring 2017 Analytical Consulting Lab: DECS 915
Department of Managerial Economics and Decision Sciences
Kellogg School of Management • Northwestern University
Professor: Russell Walker
Activities:
·
Review and interrogate revenue and cost performance drivers, enabled by data
provided by Qantas
·
Through multi-variable regression analysis, confirm the relative influence of each
driver and determine their interrelation
·
Assess the influence of competitor actions and activity on the Qantas revenue
position
·
Based on the above, work with Qantas management to evolve current articulation
and framework of revenue and cost drivers, including appropriate key success measures
and targets for each driver
·
Provide perspective on a driver-based approach to performance forecasting
-------------Qantas Airways is an alumni firm of the ACL and the sponsor Reed is a Kellogg alumnus!
Spring 2017 Analytical Consulting Lab: DECS 915
Department of Managerial Economics and Decision Sciences
Kellogg School of Management • Northwestern University
Professor: Russell Walker
Menus of Change
www.MenusofChange.org
About:
Menus of Change: The Business of Healthy, Sustainable, Delicious Food Choices is a groundbreaking initiative developed by The Culinary Institute of America (CIA) in collaboration with
Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. Together, the CIA and Harvard are working to
create a long-term, practical vision for the integration of optimal nutrition and public health,
environmental stewardship and restoration, and social responsibility concerns within the
foodservice sector and beyond.
Menus of Change is an ongoing initiative composed of a variety of elements. At its core are our
Principles of Healthy, Sustainable Menus. These provide chefs and foodservice leaders with
menu and recipe guidance related to health and sustainability, along with business strategies that
integrate both environmental and nutrition science imperatives.
CIA and Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health also host a leadership summit each June and
produce an annual report.
Projects:
Animal Welfare and the Consumer Movement
Concerns about animal welfare along with the public health impacts of excessive antibiotic use
have led a majority of the large restaurant and hospitality companies in the United States to make
specific commitments to improve their suppliers’ livestock production practices and end the use
of some or all types of antibiotics within a few years. *Regulations in many other industrialized
countries also are working towards similar outcomes.) Many of these commitments are now
nearing their “due date” and rely on large livestock producers to transition and transform their
practices, and commitments were designed often in cooperation with these same producers and
the timelines they considered realistic.
But the latest US government studies (December 2016) show that antibiotic use in livestock
production has actually been increasing. The question is: have livestock producers worked
effectively to meet their prior commitments and timelines, or have they changed them in some
way, leaving consumer-facing companies facing a “gap” or “hung out to dry” to use a more
pejorative term. And what implications does this have for the consumer, animal welfare and
public health interest groups and their collaborative approaches to engaging companies.
This project involves both mapping the changes in major livestock and restaurant company
commitments and reporting on progress as well as recommending new strategies for both leading
companies and public interest groups.
Spring 2017 Analytical Consulting Lab: DECS 915
Department of Managerial Economics and Decision Sciences
Kellogg School of Management • Northwestern University
Professor: Russell Walker
Industrial and Pastured Livestock and Dairy
Increasing consumer concern for animal welfare and a decline in the consumption of red meat are
converging on the plates that the US grocery and restaurant industries sell to use each day.
Animal welfare concerns are often addressed by switching from industrial or “factory” farming
practices to approaches such as grass-fed, pastured, grazed and browsed operations that let
animals live most of their lives in more natural settings. Those approaches also have lower yields
and are often criticized for not being able to meet demand while industrial methods are associated
not only with poor conditions but also the rampant use of antibiotics and water pollution.
The question simply put is where do the trend lines converge and when will changes in our diet
make factory farming unnecessary to meet demand? Given the amount of farmland dedicated to
producing animal feed for factory farming, a switch may also free up land for pastured production
methods, and how big a change do consumers and consumer facing companies need to make, and
if trends continue will we, or when will we, reach that point.
GMOs and Value Creation? Has the technology created value or just shifted it?
How has GMO technology created value in the food and agriculture sector or shifted it among the
major companies that provide farm inputs and also produce, process and market agriculture and
livestock products. A recent study by the USDA Economic Research Service concluded that
GMO soy and corn have not increased per acre yields over the past two decades but did increase
the use of glysophate, a chemical pesticide in Round Up that is now detected in breast milk and
was recently categorized as a type 2 carcinogen by the World Health Organization. Earlier work
by another ACL class indicates that GMO use also may be associated with foods that have greater
price volatility, but this requires additional research.
For this study, the question is what changes have resulted for how the industry creates
shareholder value as the GMO applications have created patentable intellectual property in the
agriculture sector, which previously lacked vehicles to create value through information. Where
has value or wealth shifted or been created by the advent of GMOs among companies that sit in
the farm input sector and also among major food production/processing companies in the supply
chain. How as intellectual property as a share of valuation for major companies in the food and
agriculture segment shifted among supply chain segments, and/or has the introduction of
patentable intellectual property created new value? Have GMOs impacted volatility for major
companies in the supply chain and done so in a way that supports or hinders business outcomes?
Sustainability, Transparency and Risk in the Food Industry
The food industry is at the intersection of some of the key risks impacting leading industries:
Operational risk from climate and water constraints, reputational risk from poor labor and social
conditions in supply chains, and financial risk from increasing volatility of key commodities.
Some food companies are showing the strain on their bottom lines as supply chains grow more
brittle while others are adopting new approaches that put transparency and corporate
responsibility at the center of their strategies, creating vertically integrated “direct to farm”
strategies like Mars and Starbucks which are investing in social development programs in key
cocoa and coffee growing regions, Chipotle which selects the farmers its distributors and
suppliers must work with, and others which are joining industry roundtables set up by global
Spring 2017 Analytical Consulting Lab: DECS 915
Department of Managerial Economics and Decision Sciences
Kellogg School of Management • Northwestern University
Professor: Russell Walker
NGO’s like Seafood Watch or WWF.
While all show concern, this project is intended to determine what leading sustainable food and
agriculture sourcing strategies may already be driving business success. The project would
involve identifying a substantial universe of large US or global restaurant and consumer-facing
food companies, probably publicly traded and with regular public reporting, developing a system
to rate their strength of their programs for supply chain transparency and sustainable sourcing
strategies they use, if any, and correlate these with their performance on key financial indicators
(growth in shareholder value, revenue, profit) and also the rate of “surprises”, or unforeseen
problems, in their supply chain that they announce to the markets.
Menus of Change is an alumni firm of the ACL!
Spring 2017 Analytical Consulting Lab: DECS 915
Department of Managerial Economics and Decision Sciences
Kellogg School of Management • Northwestern University
Professor: Russell Walker
Hellion ColdBrew, Ready to Drink Coffee:
Metric Coffee Co. Chicago
About Hellion
Hellion Coldbrew is an RTD available in 12 oz bottles or in 4 packs. In
addition to the RTD Coldbrew, we wholesale 5 gallon kegs to cafes, hotels
and restaurants of our regular & nitro hellion cold brew. The first years, our
numbers where mild but managed to ramp up product in 2016 by brewing on
average 50-75 five gallon kegs a week and the numbers are growing. Our
average blend cost is around 15 dollars but after cold brewing and kegging,
we wholesale the product at $90 dollars which is still under market. Also, in
2016, we managed to introduce the 4 pack of 12 oz bottles and have seen the
numbers jump which is why we think this could make a great project.
We would like to have a data-driven model of the market trends and a model
to help us narrow down our true costs to exactly calculate our profitability.
Lastly, please visit the website http://www.hellioncoldbrew.com to see the
branding and also check out the pictures to gain better sense of the brand and
its message.
Special Note:
Metric Coffee and Hellion Coldbrew are Chicago-based start-ups operating
in the Chicago Industrial Council, an incubator for manufacturing start-ups.
The project offers a rich opportunity to learn from successful entrepreneurs
and get first-hand experience with scaling a start-up.
Spring 2017 Analytical Consulting Lab: DECS 915
Department of Managerial Economics and Decision Sciences
Kellogg School of Management • Northwestern University
Professor: Russell Walker
Field Position Analysis in NFL Football
Dr. Andy Guyader
www.theq5.com
About Andy
Teaching and learning are at the root of Andy’s interests. When he took a leap-of-faith
after graduate school and began his journey into the world of high-level college coaching
some were surprised – shocked even. But those closest to him knew passion for teaching
wasn’t limited to the walls of the classroom.
While in graduate school at Caltech, Andy visited a football practice of his thenadvisor’s high school son. A few tosses of the ball and heads turned: how does a guy
earning a PhD in earthquake engineering know how to throw like that? Andy’s Cal Poly
playing days were revealed and his coaching career was born. It was on that field at
Pasadena Polytechnic where Andy helped the team run a pro-style offense and bring
home a CIF Championship.
As his days at Caltech were coming to an end, now what? Enter Coach Rich Ellerson
and a chance to do something unexpected, and perhaps risky. That risk paid-off and Andy
spent five winning years at Cal Poly. Initially splitting time teaching and coaching, Andy
soon focused solely on football and was eventually named Recruiting Coordinator in
addition to being responsible for four of the six ball-carriers on the field. Notable players
included third round NFL draft pick Ramses Barden and CFL player Tredale Tolver.
Notable wins included two victories over San Diego State University and an FCS playoff
win at Montana. Under Coach Ellerson and his staff, the Mustangs were a perennial Top
25 team and brought home more Division I victories than any other coach before or since.
December 2008 brought more change. Coach Ellerson was named the new head coach for
Army and invited Andy to be part of his staff. While at West Point, Andy had duties
ranging from Wide Receiver Coach to Recruiting Coordinator to Quarterback and
Fullback Coach. His recruiting area included Central California, Arizona and Colorado
and he was responsible for bringing in three 4-star recruits during his five years at West
Point – a notoriously difficult place for recruiting due to its academic and post-graduate
requirements.
On the field Andy hit-the-ground running, spending the 2009 season converting 6-foot
10-inch Ali Villanueva from lineman to wide receiver. In 2010, the Black Knights had
their first winning season in over 20 years and their first bowl victory since 1985. Andy
began his analytics partnership with the math department in 2012. The offensive metrics
were quickly paying off. In 2012 the team was ranked #1 in the nation for rushing with
Spring 2017 Analytical Consulting Lab: DECS 915
Department of Managerial Economics and Decision Sciences
Kellogg School of Management • Northwestern University
Professor: Russell Walker
369 yards per game. In 2013 the team ranked #6 in the nation in rushing averaging over
309 yards per game.
When his time at West Point ended in February of 2014, Andy returned to Cal Poly as a
professor and advisor to the football program. Since then, he has worked with some of
the brightest minds in the computing and analysis world refining the work begun at West
Point. Friends dating back to his Caltech days were eager to help with quality control.
From his boy-next-door beginnings as a hard-working high school quarterback to his
injury-prone days as a Cal Poly back-up… from his grind-it-out days in the halls of
Caltech to his seven-days-a-week as a college coach, The Q5 is a culmination of Andy
Guyader’s passion for teaching, his deep understanding of the game and his willingness
to dig deep into analysis. Through it all Andy has kept his professional philosophy intact:
teaching, coaching and an understanding of numbers can come together in an elegant,
successful, easy-to-understand way.
Field Position Analysis in Professional Football
Dr. Andy Guyader
www.theq5.com
In NFL football games, roughly 25% of drives either begin inside the 10-yard line (a
long field) or past the 50-yard line (a short field) - at what may be termed the extreme ends
of the field. The performance of a team when offensive and defensive drives begin in these
areas of the field may have a profound effect on the outcome of a game. Similarly, a team’s
ability to maintain a field position advantage may be shown to have a strong correlation to
the outcome of a game. A team’s average starting field position on offense compared to its
starting field position on defense may link strongly to a team’s chances of winning a game
and also the number of wins over an entire season.
This project intends to investigate the effect of starting field position for drives in
profession football. Minimal data management will be necessary on a dataset containing
chronological drive data from the most recent seven-plus years of NFL games - 2,000 games
with over 42,000 drives. Included is the final score of the game and the teams involved. An
example of the data is shown in Figure 1.
Analyzing at the game level, it is desired to find the effect that average starting field
position differential (offense vs defense) has on the odds of winning a game. At the season
level, it is desired to find the effect that the season-long average starting field position
differential has on the season win total. At the drive level, it is desired to investigate the
effect that performance in the extreme ends of the field has on a game - both a team’s ability
to get good field position situations and avoid bad field position situations. More acutely, a
study of the residual effect of a 3 and punt when a drive starts on a long field (> 90 yds).
Of interest are the odds of scoring on the ensuing drive for the team that forced that 3 and
out or the odds of being the next team to score in the game. Also the residual effect of a
drive that results in points (FG or TD) when the drive starts on a long field (> 90 yds).
This project has an intended projection for a submittal to the reserearch paper competition at MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in 2018. Currently, a manuscript introducing
a football drive performance metric is under consideration within the research paper competition at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference created through The Q5 - a football
analytics company. Starting field position is a major component of the metric formulation.
This project should create meaningful insights to field position and will directly be utilized
in the refinement of that same football performance metric.
–2–
Fig. 1.— Drive data example