Molecular Ecology (2009) 18, 4841–4853 doi: 10.1111/j.1365-294X.2009.04403.x Turtle groups or turtle soup: dispersal patterns of hawksbill turtles in the Caribbean J. M. BLUMENTHAL,*† F. A. ABREU-GROBOIS,‡ T. J. AUSTIN,* A. C. BRODERICK,† M . W . B R U F O R D , § M . S . C O Y N E , †– G . E B A N K S - P E T R I E , * A . F O R M I A , § P . A . M E Y L A N , * * A . B . M E Y L A N †† and B . J . G O D L E Y † *Department of Environment, Box 486, Grand Cayman KY1-1106, Cayman Islands, †Centre for Ecology and Conservation, School of Biosciences, University of Exeter Cornwall Campus, Penryn TR10 9EZ, UK, ‡Laboratorio de Genética, Unidad Académica Mazatlán, Instituto de Ciencias del Mar y Limnologı́a, Mazatlán, Sinaloa 82040, México, §Biodiversity and Ecological Processes Research Group, School of Biosciences, Cardiff University, Cardiff CF10 3TL, UK, –SEATURTLE.ORG, Durham, NC 27705, USA, **Natural Sciences, Eckerd College, St Petersburg, FL 33711, USA, ††Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, Fish and Wildlife Research Institute, St Petersburg, FL 33701, USA Abstract Despite intense interest in conservation of marine turtles, spatial ecology during the oceanic juvenile phase remains relatively unknown. Here, we used mixed stock analysis and examination of oceanic drift to elucidate movements of hawksbill turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata) and address management implications within the Caribbean. Among samples collected from 92 neritic juvenile hawksbills in the Cayman Islands we detected 11 mtDNA control region haplotypes. To estimate contributions to the aggregation, we performed ‘many-to-many’ mixed stock analysis, incorporating published hawksbill genetic and population data. The Cayman Islands aggregation represents a diverse mixed stock: potentially contributing source rookeries spanned the Caribbean basin, delineating a scale of recruitment of 200–2500 km. As hawksbills undergo an extended phase of oceanic dispersal, ocean currents may drive patterns of genetic diversity observed on foraging aggregations. Therefore, using high-resolution Aviso ocean current data, we modelled movement of particles representing passively drifting oceanic juvenile hawksbills. Putative distribution patterns varied markedly by origin: particles from many rookeries were broadly distributed across the region, while others would appear to become entrained in local gyres. Overall, we detected a significant correlation between genetic profiles of foraging aggregations and patterns of particle distribution produced by a hatchling drift model (Mantel test, r = 0.77, P < 0.001; linear regression, r = 0.83, P < 0.001). Our results indicate that although there is a high degree of mixing across the Caribbean (a ‘turtle soup’), current patterns play a substantial role in determining genetic structure of foraging aggregations (forming turtle groups). Thus, for marine turtles and other widely distributed marine species, integration of genetic and oceanographic data may enhance understanding of population connectivity and management requirements. Keywords: conservation genetics, hawksbill, marine turtle, migratory species, mixed stock, ocean currents Received 29 June 2009; revision received 21 September 2009; accepted 25 September 2009 Introduction Many marine vertebrates have life cycles that span wide spatiotemporal scales – complicating research and Correspondence: Brendan J. Godley, Fax: 44 (0) 1326 253638; E-mail: [email protected] 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd management. Recently, molecular techniques have provided insights into patterns of migration and stock resolution in species ranging from fish (Millar 1987) to porpoises (Andersen et al. 2001) and great whales (Baker et al. 1999; Witteveen et al. 2004). Such stock resolution issues are particularly important when species 4842 J . M . B L U M E N T H A L E T A L . are commercially valuable, cross geopolitical boundaries or have been exploited to the point of endangerment. Marine turtles exemplify these concerns: a long history of commercial use has resulted in global declines (Baillie et al. 2004) and management of marine turtle populations is complex, as developmental and reproductive migrations may span the territorial waters of several nations and the high seas (Bowen et al. 1995; Bolten et al. 1998). Like many other marine organisms (Mora & Sale 2002) most marine turtle species experience a phase of oceanic dispersal, which in marine turtles is known as the ‘lost year’ or ‘lost years’ (Carr 1987). This extended period of drifting in concert with initially small size and high mortality inhibits tracking movements of neonates from the time of entry into marine habitat off natal beaches to the time of recruitment into neritic foraging grounds (Bolten et al. 1998; Lahanas et al. 1998; Engstrom et al. 2002; Bowen et al. 2004; Luke et al. 2004). Although foraging grounds are typically inhabited by individuals originating from multiple nesting beaches a behavioural barrier to genetic mixing at nesting beaches is maintained: generations of mature females return to their natal regions to reproduce (Meylan et al. 1990). This ‘natal homing’ leads to genetic differentiation at mitochondrial loci of nesting populations over time (hawksbills Eretmochelys imbricata: Broderick et al. 1994; Bass et al. 1996; loggerheads Caretta caretta: Encalada et al. 1998; Engstrom et al. 2002; green turtles Chelonia mydas: Meylan et al. 1990; Allard et al. 1994). Therefore, mitochondrial DNA haplotypes and haplotype frequencies characteristic of each region serve as a form of ‘genetic tag,’ linking juveniles in mixed aggregations with their specific nesting beach origins (Norman et al. 1994). In a method originally developed to resolve the origins of salmon stocks (Millar 1987), estimates of marine turtle origin can be made using a maximum likelihood (Pella & Milner 1987) or Bayesian (Pella & Masuda 2001) mixed stock analysis (MSA), where haplotype frequencies for genetically mixed aggregations are compared with potential source populations. MSA has recently proven valuable in elucidating migratory patterns and range states in hawksbill (Bowen et al. 1996, 2007a; Bass 1999; Diaz-Fernandez et al. 1999; Troëng et al. 2005; Velez-Zuazo et al. 2008), loggerhead (Bowen et al. 1995; Laurent et al. 1998; Engstrom et al. 2002; Maffucci et al. 2006) and green turtles (Lahanas et al. 1998; Luke et al. 2004). While mixed stock analysis has traditionally been used to estimate contributions of many potential source rookeries to a single foraging ground (‘many-to-one’ analysis), a new approach has recently been developed which more realistically estimates the contributions of many rookeries to many for- aging grounds within a metapopulation context (‘manyto-many’ analysis; Bolker et al. 2007). Caribbean hawksbills represent ideal candidates for many-to-many analysis: rookeries are sufficiently differentiated (Bass et al. 1996), populations may be relatively contained in the Caribbean region (Bowen et al. 1996) and data from multiple mixed stocks have recently been published (Bowen et al. 2007a; Velez-Zuazo et al. 2008). Tagging and satellite tracking have demonstrated that hawksbill developmental and reproductive migrations span the territorial waters of multiple jurisdictions (Meylan 1999; Horrocks et al. 2001; Troëng et al. 2005; Whiting & Koch 2006; van Dam et al. 2008) and genetic research is beginning to elucidate links between nesting beaches and foraging grounds (Bowen et al. 1996, 2007a; Bass 1999; Diaz-Fernandez et al. 1999; Troëng et al. 2005; Velez-Zuazo et al. 2008). It has also been determined that Caribbean hawksbill foraging aggregations show shallow but significant genetic structure (Bowen et al. 2007a). As in green turtles (Bass et al. 2006), this suggests that rather than the oceanic phase being a homogeneous mixture (the ‘turtle soup’ model: Engstrom et al. 2002), dispersal is non-random. However for many populations links between nesting beaches and foraging areas have not been identified (Bowen et al. 1996) and little is known regarding movements of oceanic juveniles during the lost year or years (Musick & Limpus 1997; Bolten 2003) and factors which drive dispersal during this phase (Bowen et al. 2007a). In previous genetic studies of green (Lahanas et al. 1998; Bass & Witzell 2000; Luke et al. 2004) and loggerhead turtles (Engstrom et al. 2002; Reece et al. 2006) source population size and geographic distance have proven inconsistent in determining recruitment from rookeries to foraging grounds. For Caribbean hawksbills, these factors were significantly correlated with foraging aggregation genetic composition, but correlations were weak and significant only for a small proportion of individual foraging grounds (Bowen et al. 2007a). Ocean currents have been postulated as playing a major role in distribution of oceanic juvenile marine turtles (Carr 1987) and recent studies have linked genetic composition of marine turtle foraging aggregations to ocean current patterns (Luke et al. 2004; Okuyama & Bolker 2005; Bass et al. 2006; Carreras et al. 2006). However, for hawksbills, attempts to account for the role of ocean currents through incorporation of a current correction factor (increasing or decreasing geographic distances in a regression model by 10–20%) did not increase the strength of correlations (Bowen et al. 2007a). To evaluate population connectivity for marine organisms, empirical data must be linked with biophysical modelling of oceanic dispersal (Botsford et al. 2009). 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd HAWKSBILL TURTLE DISPERSAL 4843 Generalized ocean current diagrams can aid in consideration of the role of ocean currents in marine turtle dispersal (Bass et al. 2006; Carreras et al. 2006; Bowen et al. 2007a) but this method falls short when current patterns are complex. Trans-Atlantic drift has been modelled for oceanic juvenile loggerheads (Hays & Marsh 1997) and the availability of high-resolution ocean current data for the Caribbean and other regions now opens up the possibility of modelling dispersal of oceanic juvenile hawksbills in dynamic ocean currents. In this study, characterization of stock composition at the Cayman Islands hawksbill foraging site was extended by development of a hatchling drift model incorporating source population sizes and regional ocean current data to answer fundamental questions of hawksbill ecology: (i) how are oceanic juvenile hawksbills distributed during the lost year or years? (ii) how are foraging stocks geographically structured or regionally mixed? (iii) what role might ocean currents play in determining these patterns? Materials and Methods Study area The Cayman Islands are located in the Caribbean Sea, approximately 240 km south of Cuba (Fig. 1). The three low-lying islands are exposed peaks on the Cayman Ridge formation, with nearly vertical slopes extending to depths in excess of 2000 m on all sides (Roberts 1994). Hawksbill nesting, while described as abundant in historical records (Lewis 1940), appears to have been largely extirpated in recent decades (Bell et al. 2007). However, the islands host foraging aggregations of neritic juvenile hawksbill turtles, inhabiting colonized pavement, coral reef and reef wall habitats (Blumenthal et al. 2009a, b). For this study, two sampling sites were selected: Bloody Bay, Little Cayman (19.7N, 81.1W) and western Grand Cayman (19.3N, 81.4W). Capture and sampling Juvenile hawksbills (20–60 cm straight carapace length) were hand-captured in neritic foraging habitat and flipper and PIT tagged according to standard protocols (Blumenthal et al. 2009b) to prevent repeated sampling of individuals. Genetic sampling for this study was undertaken year-round between 2000 and 2003. Skin biopsies were obtained from a rear flipper with a sterile 4 mm biopsy punch and preserved in a solution of 20% DMSO saturated with NaCl (Dutton 1996). Blood samples were collected from the dorsal cervical sinus (Owens & Ruiz 1980) and preserved in lysis buffer 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd Fig. 1 Distribution of hawksbill aggregations studied in the Caribbean region. Circles represent locations of Caribbean hawksbill rookeries: filled circles are genetically characterized. Haplotype frequency data from Antigua, Barbados, Belize, Costa Rica, Cuba, Mexico, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands were used in many-to-many mixed stock analysis; rookeries in Venezuela are presently insufficiently characterized to permit inclusion. Triangles represent genetically characterized hawksbill foraging grounds also incorporated in mixed stock analysis: Bahamas, Cayman, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Mexico, Puerto Rico, Texas and the US Virgin Islands. Marine ecoregions (1) Gulf of Mexico (2) western Caribbean (3) southwestern Caribbean (4) Greater Antilles (5) southern Caribbean (6) eastern Caribbean (7) Bahamian. Source of published genetic data: Antigua (Bass 1999), Barbados (Browne et al. in press), Belize (Bass 1999), Cuba (Diaz-Fernandez et al. 1999), Mexico (Bass 1999; Diaz-Fernandez et al. 1999), USVI (Bass 1999; Bowen et al. 2007a), Costa Rica (Troëng et al. 2005; Bowen et al. 2007a) and Puerto Rico (Diaz-Fernandez et al. 1999; Velez-Zuazo et al. 2008). (100mM Tris-HCl, pH 8, 100mM EDTA, pH 8, 10mM NaCl and 1–2% SDS: Dutton 1996). Molecular analysis Following overnight digestion at 55 C with proteinase K, DNA extraction was conducted via standard phenol chloroform extraction (Milligan 1998), Qiagen DNEasy tissue kit, or a modification of a protocol by Allen et al. (1998) (Formia et al. 2006, 2007). Fragments of 486 or 550 base pairs (bp) were amplified via polymerase chain reaction (PCR), using primer pairs TCR6 (Norman et al. 1994) ⁄ L15926 (Kocher et al. 1989) or LTEi3 ⁄ HDEi1 (LTEi3 5¢-CCTAGAATAATCAAAAGAGAAGG-3¢; HDEi1 5¢- AGTTTCGTTAATTCGGCAG-3¢; Abreu-Grobois et al. 2006) respectively. PCR reactions [PCR Ready-To-Go Beads (Amersham) or 1.5 mM MgCl2, 1· PCR buffer, 200 lM of each dNTP, 0.5 lM of each primer, 0.5 U Invitrogen Taq DNA polymerase, 1 lL 4844 J . M . B L U M E N T H A L E T A L . template DNA and sterile H2O to a volume of 10 lL) were carried out in a Perkin Elmer GeneAmp PCR system 9700 (3 min at 94 C, 35 cycles of: 45 s at 94 C, 30 s at 55 C and 1.5 min at 72 C, followed by 72 C for 10 min; Formia et al. 2006). PCR products were cleaned with a Geneclean Turbo Kit (Qbiogene) or QIAquick spin columns (Qiagen), sequenced in both directions with a BigDye Terminator Cycle Sequencing Kit v. 2.0 (Applied Biosystems), purified via ethanol precipitation and run on an Applied Biosystems model 3100 automated DNA sequencer at Cardiff University, or analysed at the University of Florida Sequencing Core on an Amersham Pharmacia Biotech MegaBACE 1000 capillary array DNA sequencing unit. Negative controls (template-free PCR reactions) were utilized throughout to test for contamination. To identify haplotypes, sequences were aligned with published hawksbill mtDNA sequences (Bass et al. 1996; Bowen et al. 1996; Bass 1999; Diaz-Fernandez et al. 1999; Troëng et al. 2005; Bowen et al. 2007a; Velez-Zuazo et al. 2008; Browne et. al. in press) in Sequencher 2.1.2 (Gene Codes Corp). Haplotype diversity (h), nucleotide diversity (p, and population pairwise FST values (10 000 permutations; Kimura 2-parameter model, a = 0.50) were calculated in Arlequin v. 3.11 (Excoffier et al. 2005). Mixed stock analysis Weighted and unweighted many-to-many analyses (Bolker et al. 2007) were also conducted, incorporating all previously published Caribbean hawksbill genetic data (haplotype frequencies: Antigua (Bass 1999), Barbados (Browne et al. in press; windward and leeward rookeries combined), Belize (Bass 1999), Cuba (Diaz-Fernandez et al. 1999; all foraging grounds combined), Mexico (Bass 1999; Diaz-Fernandez et al. 1999), USVI (Bass 1999; Bowen et al. 2007a), Costa Rica (Troëng et al. 2005; Bowen et al. 2007a) and Puerto Rico (Diaz-Fernandez et al. 1999; Velez-Zuazo et al. 2008). To enable comparison with previously published rookery haplotypes, sequences were truncated to 384 bp for analysis. Source population size (number of nests) was used as a strict constraint in the ‘weighted’ many-to-many model (Bolker et al. 2007), with population sizes taken from Mortimer & Donnelly (2007). Hatchling drift model Movement of particles was modelled using high resolution ocean current data from Aviso (Archiving, Validation and Interpretation of Satellite Oceanographic data, http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com). Aviso geostrophic velocity vector (GVV) data (maps of absolute geostrophic velocities derived from maps of Absolute Dynamic Topography combining all satellites, obtained from http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com) have a spatial resolution of 1 ⁄ 3 degree and a temporal resolution of 1 day. To model the movement of passively drifting hawksbill hatchlings, post-hatchlings and oceanic juveniles, virtual particles were released from the coordinates of genetically characterized Caribbean hawksbill rookeries locations (Fig. 1). To simulate peak hatchling emergence, particles were released 60 days after the peak of the nesting season at each location (nesting season data: Chacón 2004; Garduño-Andrade 1999; Moncada et al. 1999), with one particle released per day over a 60-day period and the resulting particle profiles weighted by source population size (taken from Mortimer & Donnelly 2007). Drift of virtual particles was initiated approximately 50 km offshore from each rookery to account for the phase of directed hatchling swimming that occurs prior to beginning passive drift (Hasbún 2002; Chung et al. 2009a,b) and to bring particles into the area covered by Aviso data, as nearshore currents are too complex to map reliably. The u (eastward) and v (northward) ocean current vector components were sampled at the location of each particle from the daily GVV data file using a bilinear interpolation [Generic Mapping Tools (GMT 4.11; Wessel & Smith 1991)]. The u and v values (cm ⁄ s) were converted to m ⁄ day and the particle advected that distance in the x and y direction, respectively, and a new location obtained for that particle. Particles that left the GVV field (i.e. pushed towards the coastline) were removed from the model, as there is no information on how an oceanic juvenile hawksbill would behave in this situation. Also, while natural mortality during the hatchling, post-hatchling and oceanic juvenile phase is high, this factor was not incorporated into the model. One location per day was saved for each particle for analysis. All current modelling was carried out using custom perl scripts, the geod program, part of the PROJ.4 Cartographic Projections Library (http:// www.remotesensing.org/proj/) and the GMT package. Comparison of the hatchling drift model with mixed stock analysis To examine the possible influence of ocean currents on patterns of dispersal, we compared foraging aggregation genetic profiles (determined via many-to-many analysis) with patterns of particle distribution (particle profiles) produced by the hatchling drift model (Table 1). To produce particle profiles, we used the Global Maritime Boundaries Database (GMBD) to delineate Exclusive Economic Zones of nations containing genetically characterized hawksbill foraging aggregations. 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd HAWKSBILL TURTLE DISPERSAL 4845 Table 1 Comparison of genetic profiles from many-to-many analysis and particle profiles derived from the hatchling drift model Cay Anti Barb Belz Cuba Mexi USVI CR PR Tex Bah Cuba PR USVI DR Mex MSA Drift MSA Drift MSA Drift MSA Drift MSA Drift MSA Drift MSA Drift MSA Drift 6.0 46.1 0.7 21.9 13.2 3.0 0.5 8.7 13.1 40.3 0.0 45.7 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.0 1.9 3.3 0.6 2.4 85.3 2.0 0.3 4.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.2 22.7 0.8 26.1 28.4 3.7 0.5 12.6 13.2 25.9 0.0 0.0 46.6 0.7 0.5 13.0 2.7 15.7 0.9 44.3 10.5 2.4 0.7 22.9 4.3 13.5 0.0 64.6 17.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 5.3 47.4 1.5 8.0 8.5 8.1 1.4 19.7 18.5 28.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.5 0.0 44.4 10.2 27.7 0.7 23.0 14.1 2.3 0.4 21.6 50.2 21.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 26.4 0.0 2.1 4.4 65.7 2.1 10.1 7.7 3.9 1.5 4.7 23.1 35.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 0.0 37.6 6.7 5.8 0.7 5.8 71.6 2.5 0.4 6.3 3.8 13.8 0.6 0.0 81.3 0.2 0.3 0.0 Rows represent potential source rookeries – Antigua, Barbados, Belize, Cuba, Mexico, US Virgin Islands, Costa Rica and Puerto Rico; columns represent genetically characterized foraging grounds – Cayman Islands, Texas, Bahamas, Cuba, Puerto Rico, US Virgin Islands, Dominican Republic and Mexico (for sources of published genetic data see Fig. 1). Numbers are mean proportional contribution from each rookery to each foraging ground, estimated via weighted many-to-many mixed stock analysis (MSA) and proportion of particles from each rookery to enter each foraging ground during the first year of drifting, from the hatchling drift model (Drift). We then quantified the number of particles from each source to enter these territorial waters during the modelled first year of drifting (though it should be noted that a longer oceanic phase could occur; Musick & Limpus 1997). Euclidean distance matrices were calculated for particle and genetic profiles (treating each estimate of proportional contribution as a character) and compared with a Mantel test (PopTools v. 3.0; Hood 2009). Additionally, to facilitate comparison with the results of Bowen et al. (2007a), we investigated the relationship between genetic and particle profiles with linear regression, regressing arcsine transformed proportions (GraphPad InStat 3.10, GraphPad Software). Results Genetic structure Among 92 neritic juvenile hawksbills from the Cayman Islands, we detected 11 mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region haplotypes: Ei-A1, Ei-A2, Ei-A3, Ei-A9c, Ei-A11c, Ei-A18, Ei-A20, Ei-A24, EiA28, Ei-A29 and a previously undetected haplotype, Ei-A72 (GenBank accession number GQ925509). The Cayman Islands foraging aggregation represented a diverse mixed stock (h = 0.72 ± 0.04; p = 0.01 ± 0.005). Haplotype frequencies from Grand Cayman and Little Cayman were not significantly different (population pairwise FST = )0.01, P = 0.83). Therefore results for the two study sites were pooled for subsequent analyses. Rookeries of origin Using unweighted and weighted many-to-many analysis, we estimated the contributions of genetically character 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd ized Caribbean rookeries to the Cayman Islands foraging aggregation. Shrink factors for all chains were <1.2, indicating convergence. Results differed between the weighted and unweighted models (Fig. 2a), but indicated contributions spanning the Caribbean region (Fig. 2b). Confidence intervals were narrowest in the weighted many-to-many analysis – suggesting that this method may provide the most reliable estimate of origins. Hatchling drift model Tracks of virtual particles were plotted over a 1-year period (Fig. 3). Distribution patterns varied markedly by ecoregion (areas of oceanographic and biotic similarity; Spalding et al. 2007): particles from Mexico were largely entrained within the Gulf of Mexico (Fig. 3a) and a proportion of particles from the Greater Antilles and the eastern Caribbean were entrained in the Bahamian ecoregion (Fig. 3b, c). Other particles from the Greater Antilles and most particles from the southern, southwestern and eastern Caribbean were transported eastward in the Caribbean current (Fig. 3b–e) while distribution of particles from the western Caribbean was constrained by the strong westward flowing Caribbean current (Fig. 3f). Thus, overall a high level of mixing occurred in the Caribbean basin, but dispersal varied by region (Fig. 3g). Comparison of the hatchling drift model and mixed stock analysis A significant correlation (Mantel test, r = 0.77, P < 0.001; linear regression r = 0.83, P < 0.001) was detected between particle profiles (frequency of particles from each source entering foraging areas over 4846 J . M . B L U M E N T H A L E T A L . Fig. 2 Genetic composition at the Cayman Islands foraging aggregation. Among the 92 individuals sequenced, 11 haplotypes were detected: Ei-A1 (44); Ei-A2 (2); Ei-A3 (1); Ei-A9c (8); Ei-A11c (17); Ei-A18 (1); Ei-A20 (1); Ei-A24 (11); Ei-A28 (4); EiA29 (1); Ei-A72 (2). (a) Using an unweighted many-to-many model (white bars), estimated contributions (mean proportion, 2.5% and 97.5% confidence intervals) of genetically characterized hawksbills rookeries to the Cayman Islands foraging aggregation were Antigua (21.3%, 3.0–41.8%), Barbados (20.5%, 1.1–48.1%), Belize (8.7%, 0.4–24.9%), Cuba (12.6%, 0.6–34.1%), Mexico (9.1%, 0.8–16.0%), USVI (11%, 0.4–27.6%), Costa Rica (10.7%, 2.9–21.3%), Puerto Rico (6.1%, 0.8–16.6%). When source population size was used as a constraint (grey bars), estimates were Antigua (6.0%, 0.7–15.5%), Barbados (46.1%, 20.6– 69.0%), Belize (0.7%, 0.0–2.7%), Cuba (21.9%, 3.7–43%), Mexico (13.2%, 7.4–20.6%), USVI (3%, 0.1–9.4%), Costa Rica (0.5%, 0.0–2.0%), Puerto Rico (8.7%, 1.5–18.3%). (b) Arrows are scaled in proportion to estimated mean contribution (weighted manyto-many) to indicate potential scale of recruitment. 365 days of drifting) and genetic profiles (many-tomany results for all genetically characterized Caribbean foraging aggregations) (Fig. 4). Discussion Because hawksbill turtles spend the vast majority of their lives at sea, for many populations links between nesting beaches and foraging grounds are unknown. To estimate origins of neritic juvenile hawksbill turtles foraging in the Cayman Islands, we applied many-tomany modelling using data from this study and other published genetic studies of Caribbean hawksbills. For the Cayman Islands foraging aggregation potentially contributing source rookeries spanned the Caribbean basin – delineating a scale of recruitment of 200– 2500 km (straight-line distance) and highlighting the complex spatial ecology of the species. We then investigated the role of ocean currents as a mechanism underlying patterns of dispersal. Bowen et al. (2007a) previously tested the role of geographic distance (both straight-line and modified in order to account for a likely influence of ocean currents) in determining recruitment of hawksbills from nesting populations to foraging aggregations. Here, we compared results of mixed stock analysis to particle profiles, which take source population size, geographic distance and oceanographic circulation patterns into account – an important consideration as oceanic juveniles are unlikely to follow a direct route between nesting beaches and foraging grounds. A strong correlation was detected between patterns of stock composition at Caribbean hawksbill foraging aggregations and patterns of particle distribution at these sites – indicating that ocean currents likely play a substantial role in determining geographic patterns of genetic diversity, and that models of oceanic drift may illustrate movements of oceanic juvenile turtles during the lost year or years. Putative dispersal patterns for oceanic juvenile hawksbills varied regionally: particles from many rookeries were broadly distributed across the Caribbean (a ‘turtle soup’), while particles from other rookeries appeared to be regionally constrained (forming ‘turtle groups’). Thus, because of the complexities of regional and local current patterns, some areas will be more diverse (turtles recruiting from multiple jurisdictions) while others will experience greater levels of proximate or local recruitment. Ultimately, population resolution may allow demographic parameters such as abundance, survival, sex ratio and growth to be linked across broad spatiotemporal scales and incorporated into population modelling (Bowen et al. 2004; Reece et al. 2006). However, at present, the accuracy of mixed stock estimates is limited by insufficient baseline data from nesting beaches (Troëng et al. 2005). Indeed, detection of a previously unknown haplotype at the Cayman Islands foraging aggregation indicates that nesting beaches in the Caribbean or source rookeries farther afield have been incompletely or insufficiently sampled. Longer periods of sampling and larger sample sizes (Reece et al. 2006), standardized use of primers which amplify larger mtDNA fragments (AbreuGrobois et al. 2006), and expanded geographic coverage 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd HAWKSBILL TURTLE DISPERSAL 4847 Fig. 3 Trajectories of modelled particles representing drifting oceanic stage juvenile turtles, released from hawksbill index beaches in (a) Gulf of Mexico (Isla Holbox, Punta Xen and Las Coloradas Mexico) (b) Greater Antilles (Doce Leguas Cuba, Mona Island Puerto Rico) (c) eastern Caribbean (Long Beach Antigua, Hilton Beach Barbados, Buck Island USVI) (d) southern Caribbean (Archipiélago Los Roques and Penı́nsula de Paria Venezuela) (e) southwestern Caribbean (Tortuguero Costa Rica) (f) western Caribbean (Gales Point Belize) (g) depicts overall particle trajectory patterns in the wider Caribbean. 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd 4848 J . M . B L U M E N T H A L E T A L . Fig. 4 Comparison of hatchling drift (black bars) with weighted (grey bars) and unweighted (white bars) many-to-many results for the Cayman Islands and other genetically characterized foraging grounds (for sources of published genetic data see Fig. 1). Data are mean proportion (±2.5–97.5% confidence intervals for many-to-many analysis). (Engstrom et al. 2002) are priorities for improving estimates. Ocean current modelling may serve to identify potential locations of regional foraging aggregations and priorities for studies of unsurveyed source rookeries: for example, particles from the southern Caribbean (Venezuela) would appear to be widely dispersed, yet rookeries are presently insufficiently characterized to permit inclusion in mixed stock estimates. Within the context of developing a hatchling drift model, much remains to be resolved or refined regarding biological parameters (e.g. sizes of hawksbill source populations, timing of peak hatching, duration of the 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd HAWKSBILL TURTLE DISPERSAL 4849 oceanic phase, behaviour of oceanic juveniles pushed toward landmasses, and roles of active swimming and orientation in hatchlings, post-hatchlings, and oceanic juveniles) and modelling ocean currents (e.g. incorporating wind-induced components; Hays & Marsh 1997; Girard et al. 2009). In this study, our hatchling drift model was limited to determining exposure of foraging sites to particles during the first year of drift. This is useful as a measure of potential for recruitment from each of the sources, as the timeframes within which hawksbills begin actively swimming and recruit to foraging grounds is unknown. However, a longer oceanic phase may occur (Musick & Limpus 1997), calling for extended modelling of oceanic drift when such longterm high-resolution oceanographic data become available. Comparison of multiple years of Aviso data may also be informative in determining inter-annual variations in recruitment and implications for management: if, as in green turtles, there is temporal structuring in the genetic composition of neritic juvenile foraging aggregations, then marine turtle management plans should not be based on the ‘snapshot’ of short-term genetic studies (Bjorndal & Bolten 2008). In coral reef fishes, behaviour of larvae has been shown to influence population connectivity (Paris et al. 2007) but to date, it has proven difficult to separate the role of oceanic currents from behaviour in determining distribution of oceanic juvenile marine turtles (NaroMaciel et al. 2007). Under experimental conditions, loggerhead hatchlings have been shown to exhibit directed swimming which is consistent with that which would be needed to remain within oceanic gyres (Lohmann et al. 2001) and in the wild, oceanic juvenile loggerheads may actively select foraging areas at locations closely correlated with the latitudes of their natal beaches (Monzón-Argüello et al. 2009) and home toward their natal regions at the conclusion of the oceanic stage (Bowen et al. 2004). However, the ability to move against prevailing currents appears to be linked to increasing body size (Monzón-Argüello et al. 2009). Oceanic juvenile loggerheads in downwelling lines show minimal activity and positive buoyancy (Witherington 2002) and as hawksbill hatchlings at least in some populations appear to be less active in the initial days of dispersal than other marine turtle species (Chung et al. 2009a) it is likely that small oceanic juvenile hawksbills are also relatively passive surface drifters. Therefore, while vertical movement of reef fish larvae limits the application of models based on surface current data (Fiksen et al. 2007) these models are especially applicable to marine turtles. Occurrence of active orientation, particularly at the end of the oceanic stage, may nevertheless explain contributions of hawksbill rookeries against prevailing 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd currents to foraging sites. Alternatively, unsurveyed hawksbill rookeries may contribute to foraging stocks (i.e. contributions assigned to a down-current source may instead originate from an unsurveyed or incompletely surveyed up-current source). It is also possible that a portion of Caribbean hawksbills could circle the Atlantic before re-entering the Caribbean, following a similar route to oceanic juvenile loggerheads – or perhaps a ‘short-cycle’ of the Atlantic could occasionally occur where hawksbills might become entrained in Atlantic eddies which more rapidly re-enter the Caribbean. In our comparisons between many-to-many results and the hatchling drift model, estimated contributions from some rookeries were high using genetic markers while the drift model predicted no contributions. These findings may be indicative of an Atlantic cycle or short-cycle: for instance, Mexican contributions to seemingly up-current foraging sites in the eastern Caribbean may be explained by hawksbills cycling a portion of the Atlantic before re-entering the Caribbean. Integration of better biological data with heuristic modelling of oceanic drift will assist in resolving migratory connectivity for marine turtles. Patterns of dispersal for oceanic juveniles may be confirmed by documentation of stranding patterns (Meylan & Redlow 2006) and genetic studies (Carreras et al. 2006; Bowen et al. 2007a). In surveys to date, magnitude of hawksbill genetic diversity varies regionally – being lowest in the Gulf of Mexico, where mixed stock analysis indicates that oceanic juveniles originate almost exclusively from Mexican rookeries (Bowen et al. 2007a), and higher near the eastern Caribbean gyres and in foraging areas passed by the Caribbean current. Sightings and strandings of oceanic phase hawksbills in Florida (Meylan & Redlow 2006) and rarely on the east coast (Parker 1995) support transport from the Caribbean through the Florida Straits, and the presence of a neritic juvenile hawksbill foraging aggregation in Bermuda (Meylan et al. 2003) suggests some transport in the Gulf Stream. However, further genetic sampling of stranded and free-living oceanic hawksbills and genetic characterization of additional neritic foraging grounds is required. Efforts to resolve movements are particularly timely, as management of hawksbill turtles has been the subject of considerable controversy in recent years. Hawksbills are designated as ‘critically endangered’ by the IUCN (2007) and listing on Appendix I of the Convention on the International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES) bars international trade among parties to the Convention. Nevertheless, commercially valuable hawksbill products are still in high demand in some areas. Recent debate has centred on conservation status and priorities, scale and extent of transboundary movements (Bowen & Bass 1997; Mrosovsky 1997) and sustainable use of 4850 J . M . B L U M E N T H A L E T A L . mixed stocks (Bowen et al. 2007b; Godfrey et al. 2007; Mortimer et al. 2007a,b). It has been argued that harvesting of hawksbills from foraging grounds should be prohibited, as exploitation of mixed stocks could potentially impact rookeries on a regional scale – or alternatively, that sustainability of harvesting on hawksbill foraging aggregations could be determined on a caseby-case basis (Godfrey et al. 2007). Many-to-many analysis and hatchling drift models facilitate an integrative, rookery-centric approach (Bolker et al. 2007) in which contributions of both small, vulnerable rookeries and large, regionally important rookeries are evaluated. Oceanic juveniles from some rookeries appear to be dispersed among multiple foraging grounds, while those from other rookeries appear to be more locally constrained. This diversity of distribution represents both a challenge and an opportunity for marine turtle management. Broadly dispersed stocks are difficult to manage, yet threats are often geographically widely dispersed and their impacts on individual stocks will depend on how they interact. In contrast, in areas with greater levels of local or proximate recruitment, threats – or conservation efforts – may have a concentrated effect (Bowen et al. 2004, 2005). Indeed, Caribbean hawksbill rookeries have experienced varying population trends, ranging from near-extirpation (Cayman Islands: Aiken et al. 2001) to dramatic increase (Antigua: Richardson et al. 2006; Barbados: Beggs et al. 2007) – raising the possibility that variations in dispersal across an oceanographically complicated region may be a factor in these differing trajectories. While much remains to be determined regarding movements and management needs of hawksbill turtles, integration of many-to-many analysis and oceanographic data represents a promising approach. In this study, we delineated links between regional management units by conducting many-to-many mixed stock analysis across the range of Caribbean hawksbill rookeries and foraging aggregations, developed a tool with which to illustrate a possible role of ocean currents in determining distribution of oceanic juveniles, and highlighted gaps in knowledge and priorities for future sampling. Overall, results facilitate a broader understanding of Caribbean hawksbill movements – filling an important gap in knowledge of life-history and potentially informing regional management. Acknowledgments For invaluable logistical support and assistance with fieldwork, we thank Cayman Islands Department of Environment research, administration, operations and enforcement staff and numerous volunteers. For advice on analysis, we thank J. Hunt and W. Pitchers at University of Exeter, Cornwall campus. Vincente Guzmán (CONANP-México) and Eduardo Cuevas (Pronature-Penı́nsula de Yucatán A.C.) generously provided information on population sizes of Campeche, Yucatán and Quintana Roo rookeries. Work in the Cayman Islands, the UK and the USA was generously supported by the European Social Fund, the Darwin Initiative, the Department of Environment, Food & Rural Affairs (DEFRA), Eckerd College, the Foreign and Commonwealth Office for the Overseas Territories, the Ford Foundation, the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation (NFWF) and the Turtles in the Caribbean Overseas Territories (TCOT) Project. We also acknowledge support to J. Blumenthal (University of Exeter postgraduate studentship and the Darwin Initiative). The manuscript was improved by the input of three anonymous reviewers. References Abreu-Grobois FA, Horrocks JA, Formia A et al. (2006) New mtDNA dloop primers which work for a variety of marine turtle species may increase the resolution capacity of mixed stock analyses. 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Canadian Journal of Zoology, 82, 1352–1359. J.M.B. is a research officer at the Cayman Islands Department of Environment, where her work centres on using spatial ecology to aid in understanding management requirements of sea turtles and other marine species. G.E.-P. is the director of the Department of Environment and T.J.A. is the deputy director for the research section. M.S.C. coordinates a gobal sea turtle network as director of seaturtle.org. F.A.A.-G.’s research on conservation genetics spans marine turtle populations in Mexican and Wider Caribbean sites. P.A.M. is RR Hallin Professor of Natural Science at Eckerd College; A.B.M. leads the marine turtle research program for the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission; together they study the reproductive biology, ecology and migrations of sea turtles in the Western Atlantic with long-term projects in Panama and Bermuda. A.F. works on marine turtle conservation genetics in West Africa and coordinates the Marine Turtle Partnership in Gabon. M.W.B. is head of the Biodiversity and Ecological Processes Group at Cardiff University. A.C.B. and B.J.G. coordinate the Marine Turtle Research Group at a range of sites around the world including Ascension Island, Northern Cyprus and the UK Overseas Territories.
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