EnergyPath Networks:
Results for Newcastle City Council
Grant Tuff
Senior Engineer
ETI’s Smart Systems and Heat Programme
“Creating future-proof and economic local
heating solutions for the UK”
 Connecting together – the understanding of
consumer needs and behaviour with the development
and integration of technologies and new business
models into…
 Delivering enhanced knowledge amongst industry
and public sector
ETI members
 Resulting in industry and investor confidence to
implement from 2020 which enables a UK heat
transition
The Energy Systems Catapult will deliver Phase
One of the SSH programme as a supplier to the
ETI following the transition of the SSH
programme team to the Catapult. From 2017 the
Catapult will be responsible for delivery of Phase
Two of the programme independently of the ETI.
EnergyPath
EnergyPath Networks has been developed as part of the Energy
Technologies Institute Smart Systems and Heat programme.
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1,400
70%
1,200
60%
1,000
50%
800
40%
600
30%
400
20%
200
10%
0
0%
2020
2030
2040
Time Period
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2050
Proportion of 1990 CO2
ktCO2/year
Emissions Projection
Energy Centres
Imported National Electricity
Non Domestic Buildings
Domestic Buildings
Proportion of 1990 CO2
Different Scenarios
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Heating Systems by Scenario
Oil/LPG boiler
100
Low temp. ASHP
with 500 litre
storage
Low temp. ASHP gas boiler hybrid
90
80
80
90
Oil/LPG boiler
40
GSHP with 200
litre storage
30
Gas Boiler
20
Electric Resistive
with 300 litre
storage
District Heating
10
0
60
50
Two
Transition
Biomass Boiler
Business as Usual
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50
40
30
Gas boiler
30
Electric resistive
with 300 litre
storage
District heating
20
20
10
One
Two
Transition
Low temp. ASHP gas boiler hybrid
60
GSHP with 200 litre
storage
0
One
70
Percentage of homes
50
Percentage of homes
60
High temp. ASHP
with 500 litre
storage
GSHP with 400 litre
storage
GSHP with 200 litre
storage
80
70
High temp. ASHP
with 500 litre
storage
GSHP with 400
litre storage
Low temp. ASHP
with 500 litre
storage
100
Low temp. ASHP
with 500 litre
storage
Low temp. ASHP gas boiler hybrid
90
70
Percentage of homes
Oil/LPG boiler
100
High temp. ASHP
with 500 litre
storage
40
GSHP with 400 litre
storage
Gas boiler
10
Electric resistive
with 300 litre
storage
0
Biomass boiler
Constraints Applied
One
Two
District heating
Transition
Restricted Biomass
Housing Retrofit by Scenario
Including range across the scenarios
140,000
120,000
Number of Houses
100,000
80,000
Average of Scenarios
Business as Usual
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
Transition One - No
Insulation
Transition One - Retrofit
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Transition Two - No
Insulation
Transition Two - Retrofit
Sankey Diagram: Constraints Applied
Pre-Transition
Transition One
Transition Two
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Electricity Demand Projection
Including range across the scenarios
3,500,000
Annual Demand (MWh)
3,000,000
2,500,000
ND Buildings
2,000,000
Lighting
EV
1,500,000
Energy Centre Technologies
Domestic buildings
1,000,000
Appliances
500,000
0
2020
2030
2040
Time Period
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2050
Electricity: Peak Demand
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Electricity Network Peak Load Projection
Including range across the scenarios
3,000
Peak Power (MW)
2,500
2,000
District Heat
HV Feeders
1,500
HV Substations
LV Feeders
1,000
LV Substations
500
0
2020
2030
2040
Time Period
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2050
Gas Demand Projection
3,500,000
Annual Demand (MWh)
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
ND Buildings
1,500,000
Energy Centre Technologies
Domestic buildings
1,000,000
500,000
0
2020
2030
2040
Time Period
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2050
Network Capacity Projection
Including range across the scenarios
Capacity change from BAU (MW)
2,000
1,500
1,000
HV Feeder
LV Feeder
HV Substation
500
LV Subststaion
Heat Network
0
-500
2020
2030
2040
Time Period
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2050
Energy Centre Capacities: Constraints Applied
300
Capacity (MW)
250
200
Water Source Heat Pump
Large Scale Heat Pump
150
Gas CHP
100
Gas Boiler
Biomass Boiler
50
0
2020
2030
2040
Time Period
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2050
Total System Cost
Total System Cost Difference from Business As
Usual (£m)
2,000
1,500
Energy Centres
1,000
Biomass
Gas
500
Electricity
0
Energy Transmission
Energy Networks
-500
Domestic Buildings
-1,000
No Constraints
Constraints Applied
Scenario
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Restricted Biomass
Network Capital Costs: Constraints Applied
250
Capital Investment (£m)
200
150
Heat Transmission
Heat
100
Electricity
50
0
2015 - 2024
2025 - 2034
2035 - 2045
Time Period
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2045 - 2050
Network Operating Costs: Constraints Applied
18
16
Cost per year (£m)
14
12
10
Heat
8
Gas
6
Electricity
4
2
0
2015 - 2024
2025 - 2034
2035 - 2044
Time Period
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2045 - 2050