Changing the Political Discourse: Working
Class Communities on the Frontlines
10/13/2016
Remy Trupin, Advocacy Catalyst Fellow
PHILANTHROPY NORTHWEST
MEMBER BRIEFING
PHILANTHROPY NORTHWEST
NON-METRO EMPLOYMENT LAGS
state year
WA 2056
OR
Oregon will be 40 percent people of color by 2060
ID
Idaho will be 34 percent people of color by 2060
MT
Montana will be 36 percent people of color by 2060
AK
2030
WY
US
Wyoming will be 38 percent people of color by 2060
2044
•
•
eligible voter population is lower in each state
Source: States of Change The Demographic Evolution of the American Electorate, 1974–2060, Center
for American Progress (https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/progressivemovement/report/2015/02/24/107261/states-of-change/)
PHILANTHROPY NORTHWEST
MAJORITY-MINORITY TIPPING
YEARS
Gallup findings on “Trump voters”:
• Less educated, blue collar voters, with relatively high
incomes
• Longevity and intergenerational mobility
• “disproportionately living in racially and culturally isolated
zip codes and commuting zones.”
Source: Explaining Nationalist Political Views: The Case of Donald Trump, Jonathan T.
Rothwell, Gallup, September 4, 2016…
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2822059
PHILANTHROPY NORTHWEST
DISAFFECTED VOTER VIEWS
PHILANTHROPY NORTHWEST
DISAFFECTED VOTER VIEWS
median household Bachelor's degree poverty
income
%
rate %
state
rural pop %
AK
34
$
71,829
28
10.3
ID
29
$
47,334
25
15.1
MT
44
$
46,766
29
14.6
OR
19
$
50,521
30
15.4
WA
16
$
60,294
32
12.2
WY
35
$
58,252
25
11.1
US
19
$
53,482
29
13.5
PHILANTHROPY NORTHWEST
STATE DEMOGRAPHICS
POST ELECTION THOUGHTS
October 13, 2017
THE ANXIOUS AMERICAN
DARK VIEW OF PRESENT & FUTURE
% Saying “Worse”
Compared with 50
years ago, life for
people like you is. . .
The future of the next
generation of
Americans will be. . .
Trump Voters
Clinton Voters
81
19
68
30
Pew, August 2016
FINANCIAL ANXIETY
Cutting back
Don’t feel good about
amount of spending
money
Not feeling better
about financial
situation
Favorable View Unfavorable View
of Trump
of Trump
67
54
59
42
62
39
Gallup, July 2015- August 2016
CULTURAL DISRUPTION
Republicans
Independents
Democrats
Feel their own personal way
of life is under threat from
illegal immigrants from
Mexico
51
30
9
Support ban on immigration
from country with history of
terrorism
54
32
16
Monmouth, Aug. & Sep. 2016
Topos, Reclaiming Government
Topos, Reclaiming Government
WE ARE SUBJECTS, NOT CITIZENS
LESS EFFICACY, WORSE GOVERNMENT
THOSE WHO SCORE LOW ON EFFICACY:
-17 trust in government
-19 elected officials are honest
+14 angry with government
+19 government is wasteful/inefficient
+26 government needs very major reform
Pew, Aug. – Oct. 2015
CREATE A NEW CULTURAL COMMON SENSE
© TOPOS PARTNERSHIP
FOR MORE INFORMATION:
Website: www.topospartnership.com
Email: [email protected]
@ TeamTopos
ToposPartnership
It’s not about left versus right.
It’s about up versus down.
Militias &
Moments
Organizing rural voices against
the “patriot” movement
One Oregon
Reframing immigration among
the movable middle.
One Oregon
Phase 1: What are the questions we will answer?
•
Who is our movable audience?
•
What big-picture values do movable voters feel connected to that
effectively move them in an explicit conversation about immigration &
undocumented immigrants?
•
What are the effects of existing messages driven by proponents and
opponents?
•
What stories of undocumented immigrants build support for immigration
reform? Whose stories are most easily heard?
•
How do movable voters’ attitudes around immigration relate to their
attitudes around race?
One Oregon
Partner & Funder briefing
•
December 8, 2016 10-11am PT / 1-2pm ET
•
http://bit.ly/oneoregon