Treasury Market Update Ma
Foreign Exchange (FX)
Latest Market News
> The Single currency plummeted to $ 1.1885 after Mario Draghi, the President of the ECB,
indicated that the Central Bank will embark on large scale Government bond purchases.
> The ZAR remained under pressure trading as low as 11.73 per dlr on the back of falling
prices of commodities.
> Stop losses were triggered at the psychological level of $1.20, driving the euro to a low of
$1.1880 this morning while IMF records showed that the holding of currency reserves in the
euro by central banks across the world have fallen to the lowest level in over a decade.
> With the dollar strengthening on the international market, it gained 16 cents to trade at
32.260 this morning while the euro lost 54 cents to start the week at 38.40, the lowest
level since 1st June 2012.
> The Cable edged lower to $ 1.5215 after UK manufacturing growth unexpectedly slowed in
December thus reducing pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates.
> Over the week 29 to 31 December, the Bank of Mauritius intervened on the local FX
markets purchasing USD 2.45 mio and EUR 11.1 mio at the weighted average rate of USD/
MUR 31.692 and EUR/MUR 38.672 respectively.
> The Aussie dropped to USD 0.8055 after the Australian Industry Group manufacturing index
fell by 3.2 points to 46.9 in December from 50.1 in November.
Daily Technical View
EUR/USD: In our last update of 2014 on 23rd Dec we warned that the market was bracing for a move sub 1.2000 in early 2015 and on just the second trading day of the new year we made a low
of 1.1867, near the 2010 low of 1.1876 as Grexit talks again came to the fore. Doubts about the future of the single currency are adding to QE threats by the ECB and is driving the EUR lower, a
break of this key support area at 1.1860 area would open up 1.1640, the 2005 low, on the upside the 1.2000/50 are short-term resistance levels which need to be regained to ease the bearish tone.
Mauritian Rupee (Indicative Spot Rates)
Buying
Today
Previous
AUD
24.78
EUR
37.29
GBP
Change
Mauritian Rupee (Indicative Forward Rates)
USD/MUR
Selling
Today
Previous
25.12
26.02
26.38
37.81
38.40
38.94
47.75
48.40
49.18
49.85
JPY
0.2550
0.2561
0.2685
0.2697
USD
31.32
31.17
32.26
32.10
ZAR
2.62
2.65
2.76
2.80
Change
EUR/MUR
Buy
Sell
Buy
Sell
1 month
31.380
32.335
37.337
38.512
2 month
3 month
6 month
31.411
31.441
31.522
32.423
32.526
32.879
37.371
37.410
37.587
38.621
38.752
39.216
Spot Rates - Rolling Five Day Chart (Mid-rates)
Latest Bid - Ask:
1.2240
USD/MUR
GBP/USD
EUR/USD
31.85
1.5590
1.1944 - 1.1946
31.79
1.2200
1.5550
1.2160
1.5510
1.2120
1.5470
1.2080
1.5430
1.2040
1.5390
1.2000
1.5350
31.80
31.75
31.70
Latest Bid - Ask:
1.5288 - 1.5292
31.65
31.60
31.55
31.50
1.5310
1.1960
1.5290
1.1943
31.45
1.5270
1.1920
26 De c
29 De c
30 De c
31 De c
26 De c
05 Jan
29 De c
Market Highlights (v/s USD)
New York
AUD*
30 De c
31 De c
26 De c
05 Jan
29 De c
30 De c
31 De c
05 Jan
Renminbi Focus (Indicative rates)
Far East
Latest
CNY/MUR
Low
High
Low
High
Low
High
0.8082
0.8183
0.8054
0.8108
0.8060
0.8061
USD/CNY
Buy
Sell
Buy
Sell
Spot
4.910
5.160
6.228
6.230
4.912
5.164
6.250
6.254
4.892
5.184
6.289
6.293
GBP*
1.5329
1.5584
1.5213
1.5336
1.5292
1.5296
1 month
EUR*
1.2002
1.2106
1.1883
1.2006
1.1944
1.1946
3 month
CHF
0.9938
1.0014
1.0011
1.0087
1.0059
1.0062
JPY
119.73
120.74
119.99
120.64
120.42
120.44
* AUD, GBP and EUR are the base currencies
Today’s Major Announcements (at GMT)
09 30 : EU - Sentix Investor Confidence
09 30 : UK - PMI Construction
13 00 : DE - Consumer Price Index
This commentary is for information only, and the comments and forecasts are intended to be of a general nature, and are current at the date of issue. This document is not intended as an offer,
solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell financial instruments or for any individual investment.
Source: MCB Treasury, Reuters, Bloomberg.com, FT.com, GBOT, CME, and Bank of Mauritius
th
*Previous trading prices
5 January 2015
Treasury Market Update Ma
earn
Fixed Income (FI)
Latest Market News
Local Market:
International Market:
> The Bank of Mauritius will auction a total amount of MUR 500 million in Treasury
Bills with maturity period of 91 days today.
> A gauge of global bond yields approached the all-time low of 1.29 percent as investors sought the safety of debt while the euro tumbled.
> In the auction for Treasury Bills with maturity period of 273 days on the 30th De
cember, the Bank of Mauritius accepted a total amount of MUR 800 million at the
weighted yield of 3.24 percent.
> Yields in Australia and Japan fell to record low.
> Prices on German bunds are rallying, pushing borrowing costs lower while the
euro is sliding on speculation that the European Central Bank is about to start
buying government debt to stave off deflation.
> Economists predict the U.S. 10-year yield will rise to 3.06 percent by end of 2015
as slowing global economic growth is driving demand for debt.
Money & Swap Markets
Government Benchmark Bond Yields
Local Secondary Market Rates
Yield at which we
Days to maturity
Buy (%)
Sell (%)
91 to 135
2.60
2.40
136 to 180
2.90
2.70
181 to 240
3.00
2.80
241 to 300
3.30
3.10
301 to 364
3.30
3.10
International Markets Rates
1 Week
1 Month
3 Month
6 Month
EUR
-0.056%
0.005%
0.058%
0.143%
USD
0.135%
0.168%
0.256%
0.365%
0.485
0.485%
0.505%
0.563%
0.685%
EURIBOR
-0.020%
0.016%
0.076%
0.169%
2 Year
5 Year
10 Year
US Bonds
0.667
1.607
2.106
UK Bonds
0.415
1.140
1.716
German Bonds
-0.106
-0.006
0.496
Change in LIBOR (Today v/s Previous)
LIBOR:
EUR
0.006
USD
0.004
0.002
Indicative Generic Swap Rates*
0.000
Tenor
2yr
5yr
7yr
10yr
12yr
15yr
EURIBOR - 3m
0.070%
0.227%
0.380%
0.654%
0.818%
1.004%
-0.004
USD LIBOR - 3m
0.895%
1.749%
2.008%
2.238%
2.345%
2.459%
-0.006
-0.002
1 Week
*Pay fixed and receive floating swap
1 Month
3 Month
6 Month
Key Interest Rates
`
% per annum
Cycle
Current level
View & Start date
Level
Last Move
Next Exp Move
4.65
Easing: 28 Sept 08
8.25
June 13 (-0.25)
Q1 2015
Feds fund rate
0 - 0.25
Easing: 17 Sept 07
5.25
Dec 08 (-0.75 -1.00)
Q2 2015
BOE bank rate
0.50
Easing: 6 Dec 07
5.75
Mar 09 (-0.25)
Q3 2015
ECB refinancing rate
0.15
Easing: 5 June 14
1.00
Jun 14 (-0.10)
Q1 2015
China: Working capital rate
5.60
Easing: 22 Nov 14
5.31
Nov 14 (-0.40)
Q1 2015
India: Repo rate
8.00
Tightening: 19 Mar 10
4.75
Jan 14 (+0.25)
Q1 2015
BOM Repo rate
This commentary is for information only, and the comments and forecasts are intended to be of a general nature, and are current at the date of issue. This document is not intended as
an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell financial instruments or for any individual investment.
Source: MCB Treasury, Reuters, Bloomberg.com, FT.com, GBOT, CME, and Bank of Mauritius
th
*Previous trading prices
5 January 2015
Treasury Market Update Ma
earn
Commodities
Latest Market News
> U.S. crude and Brent futures dropped to fresh 5-1/2-year lows today as worries
about a surplus of global supplies amid weak demand continue to drag on oil
markets.
> The Bullion edged higher this morning supported by strong physical buying
from top consumer China, which offset a firm dollar. Chinese buying picked up
in recent weeks ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday in early 2015 when gold
is bought for good Fortune.
> WTI for February delivery dropped as much as USD1.29, or 2.5 percent, to
USD51.40 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
It slid 58 cents to USD 52.69 on Jan. 2, the lowest close since April 2009. The
volume of all futures traded was more than double the 100-day average.
> Gold for February delivery rose 0.9 percent to USD1,196.40 an ounce on the
Comex. Assets in the SPDR Gold Trust, the largest exchange-traded product
backed by bullion, were unchanged on Jan. 2 at the lowest since September
2008.
Spot & Futures Markets (in USD)
> OPEC's decision in November to maintain output had earlier accelerated losses
in the oil market while record-high Russian production and the highest Iraqi
exports since 1980 added to oversupply.
Today
Spot Market
Previous
55.57
51.72
60.61
56.09
ICE
CME
55.57
51.65
60.63
56.11
1192.90
1179.70
1194.50
1178.70
15.95
15.75
16.00
15.72
2.83
2.90
COMEX
COMEX
CME
2.80
2.87
Change
Source
Futures Market
Today
Previous
Change
Energy:
- Brent Crude Oil
- WTI Crude Oil
Metals:
- Gold
- Silver
- Copper
Oil & Gold Focus
Rolling Five Day Gold & Oil Prices
Gold Pr ice (LHS)
Bullish/Bearish Indicator†
Oil Pr ice (RHS)
61.5
1214
21.80
21.47
1206
21.50
60.0
21.20
1192.9
1190
58.5
1182
57.0
1174
Oil Price (USD)
Gold Price (USD)
1198
20.90
20.60
20.30
1166
55.5
55.57
20.00
1158
1150
54.0
26 Dec
29 Dec
Contact Us:
30 Dec
31 Dec
05 Jan
19.70
26 Dec
29 Dec
30 Dec
31 Dec
05 Jan
† Ratio of spot gold price (proxy for financial markets) to spot oil price (proxy for real economy), with a
high ratio indicating that financial markets are bearish and vice-versa
[email protected]
This commentary is for information only, and the comments and forecasts are intended to be of a general nature, and are current at the date of issue. This document is not intended as
an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell financial instruments or for any individual investment.
Source: MCB Treasury, Reuters, Bloomberg.com, FT.com, GBOT, CME, and Bank of Mauritius
th
*Previous trading prices
5 January 2015