Melissa
Independent
School
District
Learn from Yesterday…
Understand Today…
Plan for Tomorrow
Demographic
Report
2016-17
Economic Conditions – DFW Area (December 2016)
3.3%
29,892
112,800 new jobs
National rate 1.5%
3,350 more
starts than 2015
0.2%
Job Growth
U.S. 4.5%
Texas 4.6%
DFW MSA 3.7%
Collin County 3.4%
Unemployment
Rate
Sources: Texas Workforce Commission & Metrostudy
Annual
Home Starts
2
DFW New Home Ranking Report
ISD Ranked by Annual Closings – 4Q16
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
27
28
29
District Name
Frisco ISD
Denton ISD
Prosper ISD
Lewisville ISD
Northwest ISD
Dallas ISD
Little Elm ISD
Eagle Mt.-Saginaw ISD
Rockwall ISD
Keller ISD
Crowley ISD
McKinney ISD
Mansfield ISD
Wylie ISD
Forney ISD
Allen ISD
Coppell ISD
Waxahachie ISD
Plano ISD
Midlothian ISD
Argyle ISD
Melissa ISD
Aledo ISD
Annual Starts Annual Closings
2,639
2,542
1,971
2,103
2,569
2,050
1,313
1,387
1,670
1,282
1,574
1,223
1,088
1,099
768
856
984
850
778
788
714
783
789
723
763
708
798
707
688
552
570
515
461
483
447
477
463
453
553
445
321
284
333
352
337
298
* Based on additional research by TD Staff
VDL
3,569
2,420
4,675
1,468
2,207
2,233
1,575
1,277
1,887
970
662
1,610
898
1,042
884
1,052
588
801
1,030
1,295
Future
7,931
17,033
27,142
4,494
21,091
6,029
4,250
19,855
8,116
1,746
9,714
5,965
6,612
4,500
14,232
1,597
329
9,817
2,660
19,947
617
889
848
5,109
4,941*
15,574
3
Melissa RHSD Housing Market
Year Over Year Comparisons
YTD Sales
(302 YTD Sales Dec 2016)
Average Price
($271,715 Dec 2016)
Median Price
($262,850 Dec 2016)
19%
14%
18%
Number of Listings
72%
(62 Dec 2016)
Days on the Market
(49 Days)
11%
Existing Home Inventory
(2.5 Month’s Supply)
Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center
44%
4
Melissa ISD Home Sales by Type
2016 Home Sales by Transaction Type
Foreclosures
0.95%
REO Sales
1.27%
2016 Melissa ISD
Home Sales
by Type
New Home Sales
48.97%
Existing Home Sales
48.81%
•
Melissa ISD had nearly 630 home sales in 2016, and roughly 49%
were of new homes
•
The average district new home sale price in 2016 was $289,131
•
The average district resale home sale price in 2016 was $265,237
Source: Collin County Deed Transactions
5
New Housing Activity
Melissa ISD
Starts
140
Closings
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Starts
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
Total
2012
26
62
67
44
199
2013
39
36
50
42
167
2014
57
48
91
90
286
2015
44
82
88
115
329
2016
86
71
77
48
282
Closings
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
Total
2012
29
33
44
43
149
2013
50
59
43
44
196
2014
33
61
48
78
220
2015
83
65
74
69
291
•
Melissa ISD closed 337 new homes in 2016, a rise of 15.8% over 2015
•
In 3Q16, the district closed the most homes in a single quarter in more
than 6 years
•
Melissa ISD started 282 new homes in 2016
Source: Metrostudy
2016
59
80
112
86
337
6
District Housing Overview
• Melissa ISD has more than
850 lots available to build on
• The district has nearly 5,000
planned future lots
Future Subdivisions
Active Subdivisions
7
Residential Activity
Liberty
Liberty
•
•
•
•
•
•
1,454 total lots
524 future lots
648 homes occupied
252 vacant developed lots
26 homes under construction
Phase 4 (203 lots) delivered in Oct. 2016
and beginning homebuilding
• Phase 5 (300 lots) plans under review
with city
• Groundwork starting Sept. 2017
• Lots delivering Sept. 2018
• Building 100 homes per year
• Current student yield: 0.86
8
Residential Activity
Villages of Melissa
Groundwork
Underway
Villages of Melissa
•
•
•
•
•
•
1,088 total lots
489 future lots
428 homes occupied
154 vacant developed lots
6 homes under construction
Phase 2A (49 lots) and 2B (88 lots)
delivered and homebuilding
• Groundwork underway in Phase 3 (138
lots) and Phase 4 (167 lots) developer
estimates delivery of lots early 2017
• Current student yield: 0.81
9
Residential Activity
North Creek Estates
Proposed School Location
North Creek Estates
Anna ISD
•
•
•
•
•
•
1,003 total lots
400 future lots
427 homes occupied
124 vacant developed lots
33 homes under construction
Phase 1 (108 lots) delivered summer
2016 and homebuilding
• Phase 2 (85 lots) delivered late 2016
• Additional phase of appx. 400 lots
preliminary plat submitted Nov 2016
• Developer anticipated groundwork
starting by early 2017
• Delivering first lots by end of 2017
• Current student yield: 0.77
Appx. 400 future
lots
10
Residential Activity
Proposed School Location
City of Melissa
North Creek Meadows
•
•
42 total future lots
Lots have delivered and awaiting
city approval for homebuilding
Creek Crossing
•
•
•
311 total future lots
Groundwork underway on Phase 1
(98 lots) nearing completion
Delivered lots December 2016
Magnolia Ridge
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
174 total lots
81 future lots
16 homes occupied
58 vacant developed lots
3 homes under construction
Phase 1 (93 lots) delivered and homebuilding
Phase 2 (81 lots) groundwork starting early
2017 pending city approval
• Current student yield: 0.50
11
Residential Activity
Brookside Addition
Brookside
• 296 total future lots
• Preliminary Plat approved July 2016
• Phase 1 Final plat under review
• Approval expected early 2017
12
Residential Activity
Estates of Willow Wood
Estates of Willow Wood
•
•
•
•
•
826 total lots
636 future lots
185 vacant developed lots
4 homes under construction
Phase 1 (190 lots) delivered in June
2016 and beginning homebuilding
• Future phases still in planning stages
McKinney ISD
13
Future Subdivision
Auburndale
Auburndale
• 46 acres
• 235 total future lots
• Final plat for Phase 1 (125 lots)
under review with city
• Early grading permit has been issued
Retail space included in
development
14
Ten Year Forecast
By Grade Level
Year (Oct)
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
2018/19
2019/20
2020/21
2021/22
2022/23
2023/24
2024/25
2025/26
2026/27
EE
9
6
10
20
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
PK
25
21
18
22
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
K
130
183
154
166
169
212
220
251
256
282
296
299
303
311
330
1st
146
139
187
164
182
180
223
236
267
279
303
318
329
333
340
2nd
130
163
170
210
200
216
212
261
278
314
328
345
356
377
378
3rd
126
148
179
197
225
222
238
232
287
305
345
360
397
397
423
4th
125
140
166
198
219
250
249
265
259
330
344
380
405
444
442
5th
124
132
167
175
222
244
280
279
296
290
347
377
414
437
483
6th
143
142
153
188
183
241
273
308
307
328
320
383
416
457
483
7th
144
150
156
175
209
205
268
304
343
341
365
356
426
463
509
8th
132
147
176
164
198
233
225
299
338
380
379
405
395
473
514
9th
114
142
174
202
203
234
277
271
362
406
458
436
480
466
554
10th
133
119
154
182
210
213
244
289
283
389
428
479
461
505
490
11th
123
136
123
156
200
214
219
256
299
294
405
444
497
479
524
12th
90
127
132
119
155
196
210
216
251
294
297
413
446
503
485
Total
1,694
1,895
2,119
2,338
2,620
2,905
3,183
3,512
3,871
4,277
4,660
5,040
5,370
5,690
6,000
Total
Growth % Growth
201
224
219
282
285
278
329
359
406
383
380
330
320
310
11.9%
11.8%
10.3%
12.1%
10.9%
9.6%
10.3%
10.2%
10.5%
9.0%
8.2%
6.5%
6.0%
5.4%
*Yellow box = largest grade per year
*Green box = second largest grade per year
•
Melissa ISD will reach more than 3,000 students by 2018
•
5 year growth = 1,657 students
•
2021/22 enrollment = 4,277
•
10 year growth = 3,380 students
•
2026/27 enrollment = 6,000
15
Ten Year Forecast
By Campus
Current
Campus
HARRY MCKILLOP ELEMENTARY
ELEMENTARY TOTAL
Elementary Absolute Change
Elementary Percent Change
MELISSA RIDGE INTERMEDIATE
INTERMEDIATE SCHOOL TOTAL
Intermdiate Absolute Change
Intermediate Percent Change
MELISSA MIDDLE SCHOOL
MIDDLE SCHOOL TOTAL
Middle School Absolute Change
Middle School Percent Change
MELISSA HIGH SCHOOL
HIGH SCHOOL TOTAL
High School Absolute Change
High School Percent Change
DISTRICT TOTALS
District Absolute Change
District Percent Change
2016/17
821
821
42
5.39%
441
441
68
18.23%
590
590
63
11.95%
768
768
109
16.54%
2,620
282
12.06%
ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
2017/18 2018/19 2019/20
875
938
1,025
875
938
1,025
54
63
87
6.58%
7.20%
9.28%
494
529
544
494
529
544
53
35
15
12.02% 7.09%
2.84%
679
766
911
679
766
911
89
87
145
15.08% 12.81% 18.93%
857
950
1,032
857
950
1,032
89
93
82
11.59% 10.85% 8.63%
2,905
3,183
3,512
285
278
329
10.88% 9.57% 10.34%
2020/21
1,133
1,133
108
10.54%
555
555
11
2.02%
988
988
77
8.45%
1,195
1,195
163
15.79%
3,871
359
10.22%
2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26
1,225
1,317
1,367
1,430
1,463
1,225
1,317
1,367
1,430
1,463
92
92
50
63
33
8.12%
7.51%
3.80%
4.61% 2.31%
620
691
757
819
881
620
691
757
819
881
65
71
66
62
62
11.71% 11.45% 9.55%
8.19% 7.57%
1,049
1,064
1,144
1,237
1,393
1049
1064
1144
1237
1393
61
15
80
93
156
6.17%
1.43%
7.52%
8.13% 12.61%
1,383
1,588
1,772
1,884
1,953
1,383
1,588
1,772
1,884
1,953
188
205
184
112
69
15.73% 14.82% 11.59% 6.32% 3.66%
4,277
4,660
5,040
5,370
5,690
406
383
380
330
320
10.49% 8.95%
8.15%
6.55% 5.96%
•
McKillop Elementary may enroll more than 900 students by 2018 and more
than 1,000 students by 2019
•
Melissa Middle School may enroll more than 760 students by 2018 and more
than 1,000 by 2020
•
Melissa High School may have more than 1,000 students by 2019
2026/27
1,516
1,516
53
3.62%
925
925
44
4.99%
1,506
1506
113
8.11%
2,053
2,053
100
5.12%
6,000
310
5.45%
16
Future Facilities Planning
Estimated Build-out Needs
• 4-6 Elementary Schools
• 2 Middle Schools
• 1 High School
New Boundary Criteria
1. Attendance areas should be largely
contiguous and create clear divisions
of boundaries such as highways,
subdivisions, bodies of water and
natural land marks
• 3 elementary school locations have
been determined
2. Neighborhoods should be assigned to
the same school
• 4th elementary location is in the
planning stages
3. Transportation routes should be as
efficient as possible, giving
consideration to minimal ride times
within established boundaries
• 2nd middle school locations will be
considered as part of a 10-15 year
plan for the district
4. Attendance zone plans should be
designed to serve the district 3 to 5
years without additional boundary
changes
5. Allow for initially smaller school
populations in schools with higher
than anticipated growth rates
17
Summary
• Collin County’s unemployment rate is currently below 3.5%.
• Collin County will continue to see housing grow north due to
the low unemployment rate and corporate relocations in
Plano/Irving.
• In 3Q16, the district closed the most new homes in a single
quarter in more than 5 years.
• District housing sales are up more than 19% over last year.
• Melissa ISD added roughly 280 students this fall.
• MISD can expect an increase of approximately 1,650
students during the next 5 years.
• 2021/22 enrollment projection: 4,277.
• MISD is projected to enroll 6,000 students for the 2026/27
school year.
18