PRoACC2
Research Proposal
Assessing the impacts of changes in water variability, sediment and nutrient on
rice and fish production under climate change in the Mekong River Delta
by
Ngoc Anh Trieu, MSc
Water Resources University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
April 2013
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1. Introduction
a. Project Title
Assessing the impacts of changes in water variability, sediment and nutrient on rice and fish
production under climate change in the Mekong River Delta.
b. Acronym
c. Location of Research
The study will be conducted in Dong Thap Province in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam (Figure 1).
Figure 1: Map of study area
d. Participating Partner
Partner 1:
Acronym:
Address:
Partner 2:
Acronym:
Address:
Partner 3:
Acronym:
Roles
Water Resources Dr. Nguyen Dang Tinh
UniversityTrieu Anh Ngoc: conduct overall
Second Base
of research activities
Msc students: who are expected
WRU
2 Truong Sa, Ward to finalize the Msc theses related
17, Binh Thanh, to this research
HCM, Vietnam
Southern Institute
for
Water
Resources
Research
SIWRR
28 Ham Tu, HCM,
Vietnam
UNESCO-IHE
Institute for Water
Education
UNESCO-IHE
Contribution of data
experience to research
Output
- Research reports
- International articles
- Msc theses
- Educational materials
- Conference reports
and -
Msc theses
International
articles
Dr. Shreedhar Maskey and Dr. - Research reports
Kittiwet Kuntiyawichai, Dr. Ann - International articles
van Griensvan: overall research - Educational materials
supervision as mentors
- Conference reports
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Address:
Westvest 7 2611
AX Delft The
Netherlands
e. Project Idea and Concept
The Mekong Delta is well-known as one of the largest low lying areas and intensively used
estuaries in the world, where the Mekong River drains its water into the East Sea. It experiences
annual widespread flooding from rivers and sea, which provide the basis of livelihood for about 17
million people in the Mekong Delta. Especially the downstream Mekong Delta of Vietnam is
intensively used for agriculture; the pristine natural floodplains have been altered to channel
networks, dike rings, paddy fields and aquaculture ponds. Sediment dynamics play an important
role in carrying contaminants, nutrients, heavy metals, pesticides, etc. they are the primary source
for the productivity of biota in floodplains as well as sustainable agro-ecosystem within the Delta.
However, little is known about the dynamic change of suspended sediment due to climate
change and its variability impacts to rice cultivation and fish population in the Mekong River Delta
(MRD). In this sense, the urgent need for investigating sediment and nutrients transport, and
assessing hydrological variability and human intervention to rice yield and fish bio-diversity is
essential research to understand its impacts on agricultural production activities, and to propose
adaptation measures to climate change adaptation.
To start this study in a data scarce region in regards to inundation and sediment processes as
well as water quality, this research proposal is posed to implement an intensive sediment trap
monitoring system, and sampling water quality and rice, fish population investigation. This study
aims at understanding and assessing typical floodplain processes and interaction of sediment/
nutrients and rice yield in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta. In particular, it investigates:
•
Understanding of hydrological change impacts to hydrodynamics, as well as suspended
sediment and nutrients transports;
•
Impacts of hydrodynamics variability to suspended sediments and nutrients concentration;
•
Assessment of suspended sediments and nutrients quantity caused by hydrodynamics
variability on rice yield due to anticipated climate change scenarios;
•
Proposed agro-adaptation measures to sustainable development of agricultural productivity;
•
Study on understanding of fish bio-diversity in MRD;
•
Assessment of hydrological flow regime and human intervention on fish population
dynamics in MRD;
•
Adaptation measures to conserve fish population as well as bio-diversity.
2. Description of the Research Project
a. Rational and Background
The largest low lying area, part of the Mekong Delta, is located in Southern Vietnam, where
the lower Mekong Delta is created by two main distributaries: the Tien and Hau River before
emptying into the East Sea. The Mekong River Delta (MRD) with an area of 39,000 km2 is a flat
low-lying and fertile land. Hence, it has made a significant contribution to developing social
4
economy, supporting 17 million inhabitants (Dasgupta et al, 2007; Tin et al, 1999). (Approximately
22% of the total Vietnam population, over 27% of GDP, about 50% of the annual national rice
production) (IPCC, 2001a, 2001b).
From past decades until now, the MRD has been pressured under concentration of human
activities, rapid economic development, and especially climate change by the major land and water
resource problems such as acute flooding in the wet season, seawater intrusion in the dry season in
the lower delta, etc (Nguyen et al, 2006, MRC, 2007, Sam et al, 2004). One of the most serious
influences is the complex sediment and nutrient movement on the rivers and infields (Yasuyuki,
2001).
The floodplains play an important role in the sustainability of the agro-ecosystem as well as
the socio-economy of the Mekong Delta. In particular, they provide natural flood retention,
regulating flood and tide levels during the wet season. This natural flood retention has been strongly
altered by flood mitigation structures and the development of agriculture, especially the popular
cultivation of fruits and paddy rice (Fabrice G. R, Claudia Kuenzer, 2012). Remarkably, amounts of
substance contained sediment including nutrient are deposited in paddy field, they are significant
contribution to effective agricultural cultivation. However, a number of construction systems have
been constructed with the purposes of flood control and intensive crops (Delgado et al, 2010). This
made some area of cultivation certainly increase the productivity whereas others are reduced.
Complete construction systems of protecting flood have dramatically decreased an annual amount
of natural nutrients supporting paddy cultivation. However, no quantitative data exit as well as
certain researches to support either position in this statement and thus this is the object of
controversial debates does not ending (Campbell, 2007).
In currently, it is well-known about the role of suspended sediment in carrying contaminant,
bacteria, nutrient, heavy metal, and pesticide, etc (Wolan, 1977; Vannote et al., 1980; Junk et al.,
1989; Droppo, 2001; Poole, 2002; Walling, 2005). Fine sediment particles with attachment of those
matters travel from the river to the channel network, from channels to the paddy fields. They are the
primary source for the productivity of biota in floodplains as well as sustainable agro-ecosystem of
the Delta. However, little is known about the dynamics of these suspended sediment and nutrients
movement in the Delta, and how variability of sediment and nutrient dynamics impact to rice yield
due to climate change. Moreover, impact of hydrological change variability and human intervention
on fish population has been occurring but less attention.
b. Problem Statement and Research Questions
The sediment dynamics of the flood season play an important role in the agro-ecosystem of
the MRD by providing nutrient input for the subsequent farming season. However, the actual inputs
and dynamics have never been studied in detail, hence any quantitative information about impact of
sediment and nutrient dynamics on rice productivity as well as hydrological variability and human
intervention on fish population are lacking. These issues have generated a controversial discussion
on the benefits of flood defense structures in light of their contribution to reduced nutrient input in
the MRD. Furthermore, global climate change has been anticipated in the near futures. The flat
lowland areas will be very first areas facing with the impacts of climate change (sea-level rise,
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extreme events etc.). Urgent actions are necessary to prevent decreasing negative impacts caused by
climate change in the Mekong River Delta. For this reason, sediment is one of water related issues
that has generated most misunderstandings among managers and scientists, as reported by Campbell
(2007).
The major research questions of this study are as follows:
-
What are impacts of hydrological changes caused by climate change on sediment/
nutrients transport?
-
How hydrodynamics variability impact to sediment and nutrient quantity under
anticipated climate change? And how sediment and nutrient concentration variability
impact to agricultural productivity?
-
Which is the best? Fixed or non-fixed schedule (of seeding, transplanting of rice, and
applying fertilizer, etc.) and how it impacts rice yield?
-
What are the impacts of anticipated climate changes and human intervention on fish
population dynamics?
-
What are agro-adaptation measures?
-
What are the best ways to predict nutrient and sediment transport by taking into account
the uncertainties related to climate change and others?
c. Overall and Specific Objectives
Overall objective
The overall objective of this research is to monitor, understand and quantify the sediment
and nutrient dynamics during the flood season in the Mekong River Delta. This includes an
intensive measuring campaign of time series of water depths, sediment and nutrient transport, water
quality and rice growth sampling as well as fish investigation. The data are used for interpreting in
depth hydrodynamics condition of floodplain and sediment and nutrient transport and floodplain
compartment. Finally, it is to answer what impacts of hydrological changes are caused by climate
change on sediment/ nutrient transport, how the impacts of hydro-dynamics variability on rice yield
and fish population caused by anticipated climate change scenarios, then develop a comprehensive
framework for sustainable management practices and propose the adaptation measures to conserve
sediments/ nutrient across scales.
Specific objectives: The specific objectives of this study are as follows:




Impacts of hydrological changes on spatial and temporal variation of sediment and nutrient
concentrations in the Mekong Delta (present and future conditions);
To understand the impacts of suspended sediments and nutrient dynamics on rice yield in
the MRD (present and future conditions);
To understand the impacts of suspended sediments and nutrient dynamics on fish population
in the MRD (present and future conditions);
To propose the adaptation measures to reduce impact on rice yield and fish population.
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d. Research Methodology and Implementation
i. Research Approach and Activities
Data
No.
Objective
Method
Tool
1
Assessment
of
hydrological changes
on sediment and
nutrient concentration
1.1.
Estimating
hydrological changes
on hydro-dynamics
1.2. Assessing the
changes of sediment
and nutrient
1D-2D with
Hydraulic
Dynamics
(HD) model
Mike
11/21
Discharge
(2007-2009),
River network,
Cross-section,
Water
level
(2007-2009),
SSC
(20072009),
DEM,
Rainfall
2
Impacts of suspended
sediments
and
nutrient dynamics on
rice yield
Crop growth
model forced
with outputs
from
HD
model
CERESRice
Land use (2000,
2004, 2008)
3
impacts of suspended
sediments
and
nutrient dynamics on
fish population
Fish
population
model
with
outputs from
HD model
Fish pop
model
Water quality
(DO,
COD,
BOD,
pesticides, etc.)
(2007-2009)
Already
Some
available
Discharge
(Update)
Water
Level
(update)
To be collected
SSC (new)
Rainfall (new)
Land use (present
and planning),
Detailed
crop
schedules,
Benefits
and
Costs, Sunshine
hours,
Wind
speed,
Evaporation,
Temperature,
Water
quality
(Total
nutrient
(TN),
total
phosphorus
(TP),etc.)
Population
cycle,
Trophic
cascade,
Age class
structure
Migratory fish,
Body length of
fish,
Fishing season,
Rate in/rate out of
fish population,
Species and sizes
Primary/Secondary Data Collection
Hydrodynamics model:
 Discharge, river network, cross-section, water level, suspended sediment concentration
(SSC), DEM, rainfall, barriers operation, water quality will be collected to be used as data
inputs for hydrodynamics model.
DSSAT model (CERES-Rice):
 Land use (present and planning), detailed crop cultivation information, farming benefits and
costs, sunshine hours, wind speed, evaporation, temperature in detail will be collected. In
addition, data of soil profile, water quality, sediment components samples will collected and
analyzed.
Fish population model:
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 Data of migratory fish, body length of fish, fishing season, water quality (DO, COD, BOD,
pesticides, etc.), species and sizes, age class structure, population cycle, trophic cascade, are
collected to be used as inputs for fish population model.
ii. Anticipated Results and Deliverables
The outcomes of this study would be contribution into science in terms of international peerreviewed journals in the field of climate change and hydroinformatics, of which, a part of
contribution to scientific documents will be used for educational materials both in UNESCO-IHE
and WRU. Moreover, international/regional conferences will be done to spread achieved results and
disseminate networking for promoting the image of UNESCO-IHE and WRU. The main outcomes
are expected as below:
- Research reports: 2
- Articles for international peer-reviewed journals: 2
- Contribution to Msc theses, if applicable: 1-2
- Other academic publications: 2
e. Dissemination and Outreach
i. Policy linkages (incl. end-users/beneficiaries)
Some links with other institutions including local organizations (Department of Agriculture
and Rural Development, Department of fishery, Department of Environment, farmers in study area)
are conducted to provide policy briefs.
ii. Policy influencing, meetings
Combination of field trip to the study area for collecting data, there are some meetings with
farmers and local governor to enlarge the purposes and results of this research. Moreover, some
meetings may be held at WRU and other relationship institutions to spread obtained results and
receive comments for this research.
iii. Educational/outreach materials
Based on publication results, Educational/outreach materials will be done in contribution to
lectures in UNESCO-IHE and WRU as case study.
f. Integration with Phase 1 and other Studies
-
-
This study area is located at downstream of Mekong River Basin where significantly
influenced by hydrological change and intervention at upstream such as water quality,
sedimentation, quantity, drought, flood, nutrients, etc. Therefore, this research strongly
collaborate with PRoACC studies which dealing with those issues.
This research will also be a part of contribution to improve water management in land use
and agricultural policies, water pollutant treatment in attempt to avoid overemphasized plan
for dealing with uncertainty.
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g. Schedule of Activities
2013
Activities
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2014
8
9 10 11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10 11 12
Writing proposal
Literature review
Setup 1D-Mike 11 HD (already)
Visit the Netherlands
Setup 1D-Mike 11 AD, Ecolab
(calibration and validation)
Setup 2D-Mike 21 (calibration
and validation)
Setup Rice Growth model
(Ceres-rice) test running
Explore the availability of fish
growth
model
and
data
requirement
Field work and sampling
(experiments) for sediment
movement
Field work and sampling
(experiments) for first crop
Write and submit the first
international
peer-reviewed
paper
Write
and
submit
the
international conference (Japan/
Singapore)
Calibration and validation of
Ceres-rice model
Field work and sampling
(experiments) for second crop
Test running and calibration and
validation of Fish Pop Model
Coupled HD model and growth
model with climate change
scenarios
Write the mid-term report
Scenarios development and
analysis
Write and submit the second
international
peer-reviewed
paper
Build an educational material
Write and submit the second
international
conference
(German/ US/ Japan)
Write the policy briefs
Report
References
Campbell IC. (2007) Perceptions, data, and river management: Lessons from the Mekong
River. Water Resour. Res. 2007. 43. W02407, Doi:10.1029/2006WR005130
9
Dasgupta, Susmita, Benoit L., Craig M., David W., and J., Yan, (2007) The Impact of Sea
Level Rise on Developing Countries: A Comparative Analysis. World Bank Policy Research
Working, pp 4136, February 2007
Delgado J. M, Apel H, and Merz B. (2010) Flood trends and variability in the Mekong
river.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences: 14, 407–418.
Droppo I.G. (2001) Rethinking what constitutes suspended sediment, Hydrol. Process. 15,
1551–1564
Fabrice G. R, Claudia Kuenzer (2012) The Mekong Delta System: Interdisciplinary analyses
of a River Delta. Springer: DOI 10.1007/978-94-007-3962-8
IPCC (2001a) Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis - Contribution of Working Group
I to the IPCC Third Assessment Report 2001.
IPCC (2001b) Synthesis Report 2001- Contribution of Working Groups I, II, and III to the
Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, R.T. Watson (ed.)
and the Core Writing Team. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 397.
Junk W. J, Bayley PB, Sparks RE. (1989) The flood pulse concept in river- floodplain
systems, p 110-127. In D.P. Dodge [ed.] Proceedings of the International large river symposium,
Can.Spec. Publ. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 106
MRC (2007) Diagnostic study of water quality in the Lower Mekong Basin, Tech.Pap. No.
15, Mekong River Commission, Vientiane.
Nguyen A. D, Savenije H. H. G. (2006) Salt intrusion in multi-channel estuaries: a case
study in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences: 10, 743–754
Poole, G. C. (2002) Fluvial landscape ecology: addressing uniqueness within the river
discontinuum. Freshwater Biology 47, 641–660
Sam L. (2004) Research on salt intrusion for socio-economic development in the coastal
zone of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam, Ministry of Science and Technology, code KC08-18, [in
Vietnamese].
Tin N.T. and T., Ghassemi (1999) Availability and quality of surface water resources.
Report for the ACIAR Project: An evaluation of the sustainability of farming systems in the
brackish water region of the Mekong Delta. Centre for Water Quality and Environment, SubInstitute for Water ResourcesPlanning and Management (SIWRPM) and Centre for Resource and
Environmental Studies, the Australian National University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
Vannote R. L, Minshall G. W, Cummins K. W, Sedell J. R, Cushing C. E. (1980) The River
Continuum Concept. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences.37. 130-137.
Walling D. E. (2005) "Tracing suspended sediment sources in catchments and river
systems." The Science of the total environment 344, 159-184.
Walling D. E. (2008) The Changing Sediment Load of the Mekong River, In Royal Swedish
Academy of Sciences, Ambio Vol. 37: 150-157.
Wolman M. G. (1977) Changing needs and opportunities in the sediment field. Water
Resources Research. 13(1). 50-54.
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Yasuyuki K. (2001) Canal development and intensification of rice cultivation in the Mekong
delta: A Case study in Can Tho province, Vietnam, Southeast Asian Studies, 39:70-85.
Annex A: List of Deliverables
Outputs
Research report
Description
Mid-term and final
report
Article for peer First
international
reviewed journal
publication
Contribution to MSc Provide
data
and
theses, if applicable method
for
Msc
students
Other
Academic Educational materials
Publications,
specify type
Article for peer Second international
reviewed journal
publication
Other Professional International bulletin
publications
/ and conference reports
products
Research report
Final report
Type of Output
Academic report
Expected Date
3/2013
International article
3/2014
1-2 Msc student of 9/2013 and 9/2014
WRU
1-2 lectures
4/2014 and 9/2014
International article
9/2014
1-2
international 10/2013 and 8/2014
papers in conference
Academic report
9/2014
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Annex B: Budget estimate (additional to allowances and visit to the Netherlands)
The total estimated budget of the research is 10,790.00 EUR (EURO eleven thousand three hundred
sixty) as the following detail.
No. Items
1
Quantity
Unit (EUR)
Collecting data and information
1.1. Car rental (for field trip)
Total (EUR)
6,050
5,000 km
0.4
2,000
1.2. boat rental (for field trip) 2 times x 2 crops 4
day
100
400
1.3. Accommodation
50
night
16
800
1.4. Assistants
50
day
25
1,250
1.5. Payment for data and information
1,600
Hydrological data (2011,2012,2013)
1
set
200
200
Land covered map (2011,2012,2013)
1
set
200
200
Rice area rental for sampling
5
set
200
1000
Rice cultivation data and fishery data
1
set
200
200
2
Sampling and analysis
2.1
5 soil profiles
5
sample
60
300
2.2
Sedimentation analysis
30
sample
50
1,500
2.3
Water quality analysis
30
sample 38
1,140
3
Conference attending
1
times
800
800
4
Laptop
1
laptop
1000
1,000
Total
2,940
10,790
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